Latest / Financial Survival Network / Chris Vermeulen's Exclusive 2024 Future Predictions Stock, Gold, Bonds, and Oil Trends #5963

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Chris Vermeulen's Exclusive 2024 Future Predictions Stock, Gold, Bonds, and Oil Trends #5963 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
And if we look at this monthly chart, this is a very bearish candle,
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a candle that rallies up and then gets slammed down and closes near the
0:07
low. We've seen this previous times whenever there's a long upper wick and it
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gets rejected. The average pullback for gold each of these years is about seventeen
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percent, So there's a lot of potential downside for gold here when we look
0:19
at this at this future's chart. And the other interesting thing is let's look
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at GLD, which is regular trading hours. This is where the majority of
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volume trades. You are listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network where you get
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than ever, And welcome you are watching and listen to the Financial Survival Network.
1:02
I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, Chris Reveal is with us
1:04
now, you know, and well the Technical Traders dot com. Any questions
1:10
comments, shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com Chris and wanting
1:14
to get you on the show for a while in light of the resurgence stock
1:19
market, which maybe is cooling off a bit now, resurch in gold prices,
1:25
you know, what's doing with the bond market and all of that good
1:29
stuff. It's great to have you back on. So first stock market rally
1:33
out of nowhere, huh yeah, yeah, no kidding. I think a
1:37
lot of people probably weren't expecting it. Although I mean, really, in
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the grand scheme of things, if you follow the charts and you even look
1:42
at seasonality wise, I mean, it is a pretty clear chart setup that
1:47
we have going into the holiday season. So let me share my charts and
1:51
show you something really interesting when it comes to the stock market rally. Let's
1:53
go to the daily chart of ESP five hundred and what's really interesting here.
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I look here and this is just this year's price section. So the market
2:04
went up topped out in June July, and then pulled back to the end
2:07
of October, and now we've got this kind of holiday rally bounce. And
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you know, people were very nervous. We saw a huge panic selling down
2:15
in this phase here. Yet if we go and we take a look at
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the seasonality charts for the SP five hundred, it is almost the same price
2:24
action. We see it work its way up into June July, it pulls
2:28
back to the end of October, and then we go into a multi wave
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rallity the holiday or Christmas rally, you know, into the end of the
2:35
year. So this year has moved pretty much identical to how it has over
2:39
the past thirty years, which is pretty interesting. And right now we're seeing
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the stock market have a little bit of a pullback this week it's hit resistance
2:46
levels the SP five hundred, But seasonality wise, it says, hey,
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we're probably going to see this market naturally pause or pull back for a week
2:53
or two and then we go for one final push up into New Year's So
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that's kind of a view that I see on the market hopefully unfolding. And
3:02
the exciting part is going to be is if this stock market gets traction,
3:07
we are in striking distance on the SP five hundred of coming back out to
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all time highs. I mean, we're really only four, five, six
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big days away from all time highs, and that is going to spark some
3:21
pretty interesting price action, which when you and I touch gold, people will
3:23
be able to see a visual. But when we hit new all time highs,
3:27
if we do, anybody who is short the stock market betting on lower
3:31
pricing is going to want to cover their short and we're going to see a
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huge short squeeze, a volumele spike. It will be a sharp, popping
3:39
price, and then there's also going to be another camp of people saying,
3:43
well, they missed the whole rally in twenty twenty three and now we're hitting
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new all time highs. It's going to be headline news, stock market,
3:50
new highs, new bowl market in place, and so people are going to
3:53
pile in and buy, and we'll see this really good on the gold chart
3:58
a minute. But what happens after that technical breakout and short squeeze and kind
4:03
of fury of people chasing and trying to get into the market is going to
4:08
be really interesting. This could be a major, major double top in the
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stock market after this kind of wave kind of fizzles out and we poked phenomenal
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new highs. So I'll show you on the gold chart at a minute here,
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but of what I think it could could happen, but it is pretty
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exciting. I think we're still in line for higher prices going into the end
4:27
of the year, and you know, we're really seeing we're definitely seeing a
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battle between which stocks are rallying. Like, for example, yesterday the large
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caps yesterday, which is the fourth large cap stocks were down all negative,
4:42
but the Russell two thousand rallied dramatically. Today the large caps are up and
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the Russell two thousand is down. So there's definitely the big tech still and
4:50
the big caps are kind of driving this market. But there's definitely a disconnect
4:55
between money flowing in the big caps or into the small caps. It's kind
4:59
of one or the the other at this point. Yeah, really interesting.
5:02
It just came out of nowhere, shocked everybody, and you know, but
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the volume spikes just aren't there, are they. Well, you don't need
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you don't need volume for higher pricing. Low volume typically favors higher pricing.
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Typically if you get high volume, that is usually actually more to the cell
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side. It's just there's natural inflow of money into the stock market from people's
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paychecks and all kinds of different things are just natural kind of monthly and quarterly
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inflows. So the market naturally wants to go up even without big volume,
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and for the markets to go down, you technically need extra volume. You
5:40
need more volume than a natural inflow for the day to drive the price down.
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So that's why you typically see down volume days or higher volume if you
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look at the red spikes on the charts. So you know, I wouldn't
5:51
ever gauge a move by the volume. You do not need big volume to
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go in and typically if there's a huge volume, it actually becomes a crowded
6:00
trade and it usually becomes a standout high or or a bottom in a market,
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which if we transition over to gold, we can actually show that really
6:10
well, Okay, cool, So so we're going to just see more of
6:14
the same as what you're saying. And I tend to agree with that because
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the trend in motion remains in motion, right, The trend is your friend
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until the end. Yep, God, look at that chart, man,
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that chart is and then just looking at the lows eighteen forty and you know
6:35
below there, it's it's an unbelievable chart. Yeah, so we saw this,
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we saw this big, big move up there a day ago, and
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then we've seen it get cracked down on some really big volume, and you
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know, let's let's step back for a second, let's look at the monthly
6:53
chart, because this is a really good gauge of what's going on. So
6:57
more or less week came up and we broke this wick high. Whoops around
7:01
line, we broke that high. And this is the level that if somebody
7:09
is short the gold expect betting on lower pricing, then they're going to want
7:12
to cover their shorts. So there's gonna be a big wave of buying.
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There's also going to be a ton of people saying when gold hits new highs,
7:17
I'm buying it, right, And so we broke that level. Now,
7:20
if we look at it from a ten minute chart of what happened,
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this is more or less where the price broke out, and you can see
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the big volume. This is where everyone all the shorts covered. This is
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where people piled in saying they have orders standing saying buy gold if it breaks
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to new highs, and everyone piled in. And as soon as that wave,
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that technical level of emotions of everyone doing the same thing is finished its
7:46
momentum, it goes back in the opposite direction. So literally it gets you
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out of a potential winning trade. If gold is going down, the shorts
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are now out, and then anybody who just bought is now instantly taking a
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pretty big loss. This is a five almost six percent pullback in gold really
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a day and a half, which for gold is a massive move, a
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big damn gold is usually a percent percent and a half. It is a
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pretty big day. So that this is what could happen with the SP five
8:16
hundred. When it pokes to new highs, We're going to see a huge
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amount of people covering their shorts. We're seeing new people pile in. It's
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going to be mainstream media just like well we we're seeing here right now in
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gold, and the same thing could happen and big money steps in and just
8:31
starts unloading into the stock market. Because I do think some of the big
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money players they do see I think dark times ahead. I think they're I
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think the market is going to try to get to new all time highs so
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that it can unload. The big money can start getting out, and they
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could start distributing and getting out of their shares, because you know, the
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big funds, they take months to roll out of positions. They can't just
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unload, so they you know, the market likes to try and hit these
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normal new highs and get people sucked in and create buying pressure buying demand,
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so they can unload into it. Just like gold. This was like literally
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technical play. And if we zoom out a little bit here, this is
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the ten minute chart, and we can see how this goes back several days.
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But the volume in the past thirty six hours like dwarfs all of that
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of the normal look at that trading suns so it's definitely like a crowded play.
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If everyone's doing it and it's mainstream, it's usually a major turning point.
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And to take it one notch further, let's actually just take a look
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at the monthly chart. And if we look at this monthly chart, this
9:37
is a very bearish candle, a candle that rallies up and then gets slammed
9:41
down and closes near the low. We've seen this previous times whenever there's a
9:45
long upper wick and it gets rejected. The average pullback for gold each of
9:48
these years is about seventeen percent, so there's a lot of potential downside for
9:52
gold here when we look at this at this future's chart. And the other
9:58
interesting thing is let's look at GLD, which is regular trading hours. This
10:03
is where the majority of volume trades. This is the monthly chart. And
10:05
if you notice, and I draw the lies for people who think they're trading
10:11
gold, right, yeah, during regular training, it has not even broken
10:15
out yet and so it is still lingering in, you know, in the
10:20
range, well within the range. So the fact that gold did all this
10:24
stuff and silver barely budged, gold miners barely even budged. In fact,
10:28
they're all sell lower. There's no real commitment behind this. I feel like
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it was a technical mark move. The market was just I think it saw
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a lot of positions that wanted to really shake up and try and and just
10:39
get people whipsaw it out of positions. So I don't believe this gold move
10:45
yet. It's exciting, but I don't believe in it. Same here,
10:48
same here, although I think I think it's paving the way for the future.
10:52
For sure, I don't think it is the move. But you know,
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higher highs, higher lows, right, Yeah, it's working its way
11:01
through this pattern. But it definitely was like a little fake out. I
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think at this point that whole move yesterday, yeah, I could well go
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down. How it's lower it's going to go, you know, it did.
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Let's not forget Chris had closed the month over two thousand. Yeah,
11:18
first ever, right, yep. So I find it pretty fascinating to watch.
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But I don't think we're quite there yet. But I've been wrong before
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many a time, so yeah, it'd interesting. Yeah, And you know,
11:35
we saw the mark the gold market pulled back a bit, and this
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is the monthly chart. I'm actually just going to go to the daily chart
11:39
real quick here. So we have seen gold. It rallied out of October,
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pulled back in November, and now it's rallying up into December. If
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we take a look at the seasonality chart of gold of how it typically moves,
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we see the rally up, it pulls back bait November beginning of December,
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and so you know, we might see gold, you know, hold
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its ground and try and push a little bit higher or hold the level it's
12:05
at. So it's going to be a bit of a positive bias here.
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I think for gold, it really just had a big blow off top and
12:11
it's pulling back a bit. So I think we might see gold hold its
12:15
ground and potentially trade. This is the daily chart. It might actually trade
12:20
its ground and build a little bullflag right under this. This all time high.
12:24
It could actually become a bullish pattern and continue to take off. But
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just this one day whipsaw is more of a technical a flood of orders and
12:33
automated triggers happening, and so you kind of have to negate that. You
12:37
have to try to erase that out of your brain and be like, Okay,
12:41
it did happen, but to me, it was more of computers and
12:43
automated trades running a very thinly traded market, and that's why you get these
12:48
big whip saws. So I think we might see a bullflag pattern and maybe
12:52
Gold is going to continue to push and rally and become a bit more of
12:56
a defensive play and start to hold a new all time highs. So there's
13:01
still a bullsh case for it. Just right now. It's definitely a little
13:05
shakeup, and Q one is always generally pretty strong for you know, it's
13:11
the midway through Q four going into midway through Q one roughly, right,
13:18
Yeah, yeah, Gold does typically fairly well really from October into the end
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of February, so it's you know a few months of upward bias. Yeah,
13:28
all right, So what's next here? I mean, we could take
13:33
a quick look at the dollar because they're they're very very much related. So
13:37
we have been shooting the dollar. This is the daily charter dollars been moving
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down over the past really since the stock market bottomed. Typically what we have
13:46
been seeing, especially when there's a lot of fear in the market or strong
13:48
waves of fear or greed, the dollar tends to go the opposite as the
13:54
stock market. So the stock market has rallied, the dollar has gone down.
13:58
That has also helped move gold up over the past month and a half.
14:03
Uh. And then of course we also had gold put in the dollar
14:05
put in a big pop, and that's put a little bit of a pressure
14:09
on gold in the past two sessions. And I do think we're probably going
14:13
to see the dollar flounder and potentially work itself flower as we go into the
14:18
end of the year. I think stocks are going to still becoming a favored
14:20
play people are going to It's gonna be probably a lot of window dressing.
14:24
So we're gonna see a lot of big funds and advisors moving clients into the
14:26
big tech that are leading the way, so that at the end of the
14:30
year, investors get the report and they'll be like, oh, I own
14:33
all these big the best stocks that you know did the best through the year.
14:35
I mean, while they really just got into them at the end,
14:37
so I feel like they're they're they're doing all right. Uh. And if
14:43
money is going to pile into the big leading stocks which are driving this market
14:46
higher, they're gonna that's going to drive the market higher into the close of
14:50
the year. So I think the dollar could be a little bit weaker,
14:54
Gold is going to have that little bit of a bounce and drift higher,
14:56
and stocks are going to rally as well. So there's a bullish case I
15:01
mean for the end of the year, I think for gold still and equities.
15:07
All right, So interest rates, where are we looking at now?
15:11
Chris, Yeah, I mean I always look at the bond market, I
15:16
mean as kind of the gauge of things. Obviously, we've had this huge
15:20
bearer market in bonds rising rates. I do think rates are probably stalling out
15:26
here. I don't think they're really going to go a whole lot higher,
15:28
which could be one of the reasons why we have huge, huge volume in
15:31
the bond market. I think people are trying to pick a bottom. But
15:35
there's no doubt we are still clearly in a downtrend. I hear a lot
15:41
of chatter and a lot of news talking about this is one of the strongest
15:45
rallies in the bond market in a very long time. But when you look
15:48
at it in the grand scheme of things, we've seen big rallies over and
15:52
over again, and they have all failed at this point. Even over here
15:56
was a big one. So while I'm starting to feel like bond market maybe
16:02
bottoming, you just I don't try to pick a bottom. I would much
16:06
rather let this kind of mature and give it time, Meaning let bonds do
16:11
whatever they're gonna do. If they're going to rally way up here, and
16:14
then build a base and work work themselves out. Eventually they'll build a new
16:18
launch pad. The downward momentum and the trends and the moving average will eventually
16:22
flat line and start moving up, and you know, as we start to
16:26
break from there, we'll definitely be in a new up trend and bond market
16:30
will be in favor. But I'm not about trying to pick a bottom that
16:33
has failed terribly for many many people over the last several years here. So
16:40
I'd much rather just wait for the trend to shift and then we catch the
16:45
upside. Eventually it'll put in the top and start to break down, and
16:48
then we would exit. It's about catching this middle section that is a low
16:52
risk opportunity. So many people just love to try and time the markets and
16:57
try to pick bottoms and try to try to exit at tops. Meanwhile,
17:03
as we know, you can't, you can't truly time the market. And
17:06
my whole philosophy is technical analysis. It's not about timing the market. It's
17:10
about following the market. Identify trends, confirm that a trend is strong enough
17:15
in place that we want to take part of it, and then we move
17:18
into it and we ride it up, and when it rolls over and starts
17:22
to sell off, we get out once that trend changes. So there's a
17:25
huge misconception with so many people in technical analysis. Oh, it's market timing,
17:29
it's market timing. I'd say, it's just market following. And that's
17:33
what I really like about it is we don't have to try to know what's
17:36
going to happen. We don't have to guess and have the anxiety and fear
17:40
of all that. We just have to let the market do it's thing.
17:42
We hop on the trends, we hop off when they're not working and we
17:45
go look for a new asset, and the bond market to be is going
17:48
to be one of those because I have a lot of subscribers constantly asking me,
17:52
you know, can we get in bonds? Okay, this feels like
17:55
the bottom in bond, so you know, it's I don't trade that way.
17:59
I wait for time trends to confirm and then hop on, hop on
18:03
board. It's about consistency in the trades, being able to move into big
18:06
assets like this with a large amount of money, and being confident and riding
18:10
a trend, versus hopping in when it's in these super volatile stages where you
18:15
can lose a lot of money very quickly getting in trying to get in during
18:19
a bottom or top, because that's when the most volatility is and it's the
18:23
biggest guess and it's it's just it's just a disaster in most cases. All
18:30
right, Yeah, people never learned. That's the problem with history, right,
18:33
Yeah. It repeats pretty pretty frequently, it seems. Yeah, uh,
18:38
okay, oil, what are we looking at in oil? Yeah?
18:42
Man, I don't have a whole lot of insight when it comes to oil.
18:45
I think we have this double big double top who we kind of draw
18:51
a few lines on here. We have this double top phase, and then
18:53
it broke down and we've come up. We've kind of hit this resistance area
18:56
where we're now coming back down towards this low or end of this range.
19:02
I feel like I do feel like we're going into a recession. I think
19:04
things are going to get difficult. I think crude will eventually move even lower.
19:11
Seventy three seems really cheap for crude overall, but knowing it can go
19:15
negative, knowing it can go all the way down, you know, I
19:18
honestly think we could see crude back down in the sixties and fifties, maybe
19:22
even the forties by this time next year, if depending on how things unfold.
19:27
So overall, crude oil to me is trading is a big sideways range
19:32
short term wise. It's not a down trend long term wise. I feel
19:36
like it's we're to look at the big picture. I feel as though it
19:40
is more or less in a major topping phase, and it's kind of something
19:45
like this, We're going to eventually go into a big bout of selling or
19:48
something like this. It's a big sell off. This is a very very
19:52
critical line that that crude could really dump out after that. So I'm not
19:57
that bullish on the economy and the Bulloshan crude. I think they're kind of
20:02
related to each other. So it'll be interesting to see what crew does when
20:07
it breaks down next year, all right, next year sometimes so we'll be
20:12
looking, uh, we'll be watching it closely, looking for that fallout,
20:18
which does could be perhaps inevitable. All right, and that is it for
20:23
today. So technically, the Technical Traders dot Com that's where you find Chris's
20:30
work. What do you find there when you sign up? Chris, Yeah,
20:33
when you sign up, I do analysis just like you and I did.
20:37
I cover it on a short term, long term point of view.
20:38
We cover all kinds of different asset classes, including radium, and we cover
20:44
bitcoins sometimes, so more or less I provide the analysis for more or less
20:48
swing trading, and I put it on trades, and everybody just copies my
20:52
trade signals, so I trade my own money with the signals, and more
20:56
or less you just copy what I do. So it's uh trade alert newsletter
21:00
and you learn and can make money at the same time. All Right,
21:06
Bitcoin's been on a tear. It's over forty two thousand today, a shocker
21:10
of all shockers. But I've been on a program. I buy it every
21:15
Sunday, and I've sold off a few times over the past few months and
21:22
then rebuild the position gradually over time. And yeah, so it's doing pretty
21:27
darn good right now. I mean, as I'm twenty nine to forty two,
21:33
that's quite to move. That's a huge map. Are you a silver
21:36
stacker? Do you accumulate physical too or I basically got my position and I've
21:41
held onto it for close to twenty years now. I don't feel the need.
21:45
Every now and then it dips below a certain number, I'll buy more
21:49
bars, but basically I don't need anymore. It's too hard to store the
21:53
stuff it is. It is a pain. It does have a little cost
21:57
to it, unless you want to risk keep an egg your eye. No,
22:00
we never risk that for sure, well never so all right, Hey,
22:04
the Technical Traders dot com got a question for Chris or myself kl at
22:08
Carrie LUTs dot com. Make sure you go to the site Financial Survival Network
22:12
dot com. You'll find the links to Chris's site and you can sign up
22:18
for your free newsletter. Chris, We'll talk to you in a little while
22:21
and see what these markets are doing. Thanks carry always a pleasure. Thanks
22:25
for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
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