Latest / Blaze Media / Predictable with Stu Burguiere - Will the NYT’s Random-Acts-of-Journalism Affect Major Midterms Races?

Transcript

Predictable with Stu Burguiere - Will the NYT’s Random-Acts-of-Journalism Affect Major Midterms Races? · Blaze Media

• 0:01
  In a shocking twist,
• 0:03
  the New York Times has apparently spent some time
• 0:06
  doing
• 0:07
  actual journalism.
• 0:09
  I know.
• 0:09
  I'm surprised too.
• 0:10
  We'll take a look at their latest scoops and analyze
• 0:12
  the impact they may have on some big midterm races,
• 0:16
  uh,
• 0:16
  and,
• 0:16
  uh,
• 0:16
  eventuals,
• 0:17
  Alex Keeney joins us to give us a prediction market expert's
• 0:20
  take on what Tuesday's midterms are shaping up to look like.
• 0:23
  All that and more is coming up on Predictable with Stu.
• 0:41
  So much to get to today and not nearly enough time to
• 0:43
  get to it as we get closer and closer to the election.
• 0:45
  I wanna tell you to go to YouTube,
• 0:46
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 0:48
  If you're not a subscriber,
• 0:50
  as I guess most of you aren't.
• 0:52
  That watch this show,
• 0:53
  uh,
• 0:53
  we would love for you to just click subscribe,
• 0:55
  uh,
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  click the bell for notifications.
• 0:56
  It helps us spread the,
• 0:57
  the news around and,
• 0:58
  and get the show
• 0:59
  to,
• 0:59
  uh,
• 0:59
  many others,
• 1:00
  uh,
• 1:00
  on the internet.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:02
  we also have a big live stream.
• 1:04
  It's a great reason to,
• 1:05
  to subscribe to the channel so you can get alerted for that live stream.
• 1:07
  It's coming up on election night.
• 1:09
  We're gonna be going for hours and hours and hours and hours and hours,
• 1:11
  uh,
• 1:12
  covering everything,
• 1:12
  trading it live.
• 1:13
  With you,
• 1:14
  it's gonna be a real,
• 1:15
  it's a totally different way of experiencing an election
• 1:17
  and I think you will really enjoy it.
• 1:19
  Uh,
• 1:19
  we're also gonna have a,
• 1:20
  uh,
• 1:21
  members only uh predictableShow.com premium tier.
• 1:24
  We've got a couple of subscriber only chats that are coming,
• 1:27
  um,
• 1:28
  uh,
• 1:28
  tomorrow
• 1:29
  around lunchtime probably
• 1:30
  and,
• 1:31
  um,
• 1:31
  on,
• 1:32
  on election day we will do another one,
• 1:34
  so.
• 1:35
  Tons and tons of stuff for you.
• 1:37
  Not to mention every pick that I make on prediction markets,
• 1:39
  so join us there
• 1:40
  as well.
• 1:41
  Get,
• 1:41
  get all that information now.
• 1:42
  I know a ton of you are joining because of the election.
• 1:44
  We love that you do that.
• 1:45
  We're gonna have tons of stuff for you after this period is
• 1:47
  over as well as we go into all sorts of different categories.
• 1:49
  That's what's great about prediction markets.
• 1:51
  It's everything.
• 1:52
  There is a market for everything.
• 1:54
  And we will find the value with you,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:57
  hopefully.
• 1:57
  Uh,
• 1:58
  by the way,
• 1:58
  I was on with Megyn Kelly earlier today.
• 2:00
  We talked about the elections.
• 2:02
  Um,
• 2:02
  I would encourage you to go back and,
• 2:03
  and watch it.
• 2:04
  Uh,
• 2:04
  talked about the elections,
• 2:05
  talked about prediction markets as well.
• 2:07
  I tried to get Megan to get a Senate fantasy team.
• 2:10
  Uh,
• 2:10
  I,
• 2:11
  I,
• 2:11
  she seemed like she might do it.
• 2:12
  I was like,
• 2:12
  you gotta get a Senate fantasy team in there,
• 2:14
  so we'll see.
• 2:15
  We will see.
• 2:16
  Uh,
• 2:16
  look for her name on there.
• 2:17
  If we get a Megyn Kelly Senate fantasy team,
• 2:19
  that'll be a lot of fun.
• 2:19
  You can compete against her,
• 2:21
  uh,
• 2:21
  and me and a bunch of other,
• 2:22
  there's,
• 2:23
  there's a ton of big traders in there.
• 2:24
  There's a ton of big personalities in there,
• 2:25
  so go check that out.
• 2:26
  We have 5 days
• 2:28
  until the midterm elections.
• 2:29
  That's why I like the Senate Fantasy League.
• 2:31
  You can basically have no risk and you can still potentially make money.
• 2:34
  Uh,
• 2:34
  it's a free,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:35
  free thing.
• 2:36
  So check that out.
• 2:37
  With only 5 days left,
• 2:38
  you can join anyway,
• 2:39
  anyway,
• 2:40
  uh,
• 2:40
  anywhere to the end of Monday,
• 2:41
  I think.
• 2:41
  So,
• 2:42
  there we go.
• 2:42
  I wanna go to a couple of big developments.
• 2:45
  And the New York Times leading the charge on this.
• 2:47
  I gotta give them credit.
• 2:47
  Yes,
• 2:48
  I,
• 2:48
  have I ever,
• 2:49
  have you ever heard me complain about the New York Times news coverage?
• 2:52
  I don't think so.
• 2:54
  I,
• 2:54
  I mean,
• 2:54
  I'm trying to think back to the 28,
• 2:56
  29 years I've been doing this.
• 2:58
  Uh,
• 2:59
  I can't think of any examples at all,
• 3:01
  uh,
• 3:01
  where I've criticized them,
• 3:02
  but I gotta say,
• 3:03
  I'm really glad they did what they did here
• 3:06
  because
• 3:07
  At some level,
• 3:08
  it's gotta be more than just politics,
• 3:09
  right?
• 3:09
  It's gotta be more than just partisanship.
• 3:11
  It's gotta be more than who you want to win.
• 3:13
  There's gotta be something about these elections that,
• 3:16
  that,
• 3:17
  I don't know,
• 3:17
  go a little bit beyond that,
• 3:18
  go into civics,
• 3:19
  go into responsibility.
• 3:22
  We can look here and,
• 3:23
  and expect the very least out of our politicians,
• 3:26
  or occasionally call them out on their BS.
• 3:28
  And honestly,
• 3:29
  that's what the New York Times did here inside
• 3:31
  Democrats' secret effort to stack Alaska's ballot.
• 3:35
  Uh,
• 3:35
  I will say this,
• 3:36
  the times,
• 3:37
  and this is what I would have expected out of the times,
• 3:39
  this is why I'm leading with this.
• 3:41
  The times I feel like normally,
• 3:44
  we would have heard about this story 2 or 3 weeks after the election.
• 3:49
  Two or 3 weeks after the election,
• 3:50
  we have this big expose when you can't do anything about it.
• 3:53
  Well,
• 3:53
  Alaska,
• 3:53
  you can do something about this here
• 3:55
  because
• 3:56
  this goes to the story
• 3:58
  of the two
• 3:59
  Dan Sullivan's.
• 4:00
  Which one will you vote for?
• 4:02
  If you want Dan Sullivan,
• 4:03
  the senator,
• 4:03
  to win,
• 4:04
  you gotta remember to vote for Dan
• 4:06
  S.
• 4:06
  Sullivan.
• 4:07
  As Megan pointed out,
• 4:08
  S for senator.
• 4:08
  That's how you can remember it very easily,
• 4:10
  Dan S.
• 4:10
  Sullivan.
• 4:11
  The other one is Dan J.
• 4:13
  Sullivan.
• 4:13
  Who was like a retired teacher,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:16
  you know,
• 4:17
  living in Alaska,
• 4:18
  who,
• 4:19
  as he said,
• 4:20
  he's just a normal guy,
• 4:22
  got into this without even,
• 4:24
  without even,
• 4:25
  uh,
• 4:25
  he just really was,
• 4:26
  you know,
• 4:26
  a lot of people told him he should run for Senate,
• 4:28
  and that was all it was about.
• 4:30
  It wasn't like he was recruited to confuse voters in Alaska,
• 4:33
  right?
• 4:34
  Well,
• 4:34
  of course,
• 4:34
  we all kind of knew that's what it was.
• 4:36
  Um,
• 4:37
  we all kind of knew that that was what was going on behind the scenes.
• 4:39
  What we did not know.
• 4:40
  Cause that was still speculation.
• 4:42
  Like I,
• 4:42
  you know,
• 4:42
  I,
• 4:43
  I,
• 4:43
  I would I,
• 4:44
  would I have taken a position on a prediction market
• 4:47
  that Mary Peltola's campaign was exactly involved with this?
• 4:50
  Uh,
• 4:51
  yes,
• 4:51
  I would have taken the yes position on that,
• 4:53
  but we didn't have evidence of it.
• 4:54
  We didn't have proof of it yet.
• 4:56
  We do now.
• 4:57
  Inside the Democrats' secret effort to stack Alaska's ballot,
• 5:00
  the Peltola campaign
• 5:02
  has repeatedly denied any involvement in Dan
• 5:05
  Jay Sullivan's candidacy,
• 5:07
  but the Times has found based on interviews and text messages,
• 5:10
  along with documents prepared for a potential lawsuit against the campaign,
• 5:13
  that not only did Ms.
• 5:15
  Peltola's team work with people
• 5:18
  trying to recruit
• 5:19
  the fake Dan Sullivan to run for Senate.
• 5:21
  But the effort was much broader.
• 5:23
  The group worked to coax other people who would be spoilers in
• 5:26
  the race to dilute the incumbents support and help catapult the Democratic
• 5:31
  Democrat to victory.
• 5:31
  Now we've talked about the,
• 5:32
  the,
• 5:32
  uh,
• 5:33
  the way Alaska works,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  over the,
• 5:35
  over,
• 5:36
  uh,
• 5:36
  the years,
• 5:37
  and,
• 5:37
  uh,
• 5:37
  this one is a,
• 5:38
  it's a weird system.
• 5:39
  It's ranked choice voting,
• 5:40
  but it's actually more strange than just ranked choice voting.
• 5:43
  It's,
• 5:43
  it's also like.
• 5:44
  Uh,
• 5:45
  they have a,
• 5:46
  an open primary where anyone can run.
• 5:48
  The top 4 candidates get into the final round,
• 5:51
  and when there's 4 on the ballot,
• 5:53
  uh,
• 5:53
  then people,
• 5:54
  uh,
• 5:54
  play
• 5:55
  there.
• 5:55
  You can rank the,
• 5:57
  the top 4 in the general election.
• 5:59
  And here's the thing,
• 6:00
  a lot of people just don't do it.
• 6:02
  A lot of people are used to voting the old way,
• 6:04
  and they don't participate in this new system.
• 6:06
  Now,
• 6:06
  you might say the new system sucks,
• 6:07
  and I'm,
• 6:08
  I,
• 6:08
  you know,
• 6:08
  I have some sympathies with that position.
• 6:10
  But,
• 6:11
  if you are in Alaska,
• 6:12
  or if you're in any place that has ranked choice voting,
• 6:16
  I can't encourage you enough
• 6:17
  to rank every candidate that you can possibly stand,
• 6:20
  right?
• 6:20
  Like,
• 6:20
  just go through,
• 6:21
  if you think,
• 6:22
  if you're,
• 6:22
  if you're with one person and you,
• 6:24
  you know,
• 6:24
  you don't,
• 6:25
  you know,
• 6:25
  don't rank the,
• 6:26
  the,
• 6:26
  the opponent of what you,
• 6:28
  you could leave them off,
• 6:29
  but rank the other ones.
• 6:30
  Or,
• 6:30
  and if you're gonna rank 4,
• 6:31
  you can rank 4 if you think Mary Teltoll is your least favorable,
• 6:34
  put her 4th.
• 6:36
  Um,
• 6:36
  if you don't do that,
• 6:38
  There's a chance
• 6:39
  that uh other votes will determine the outcome outside of yours.
• 6:44
  So if you're in a ranked choice voting system,
• 6:46
  rank the voter,
• 6:46
  rank the candidates,
• 6:47
  please do it.
• 6:49
  So
• 6:50
  what happened,
• 6:51
  excuse me,
• 6:51
  a little allergy thing going on.
• 6:53
  Um,
• 6:53
  what happens in this,
• 6:54
  uh,
• 6:55
  particular race
• 6:56
  is,
• 6:56
  um,
• 6:57
  you have 4 candidates that make it to the final round.
• 6:59
  One is Mary Peltola,
• 7:00
  one is Dan,
• 7:01
  uh,
• 7:01
  S.
• 7:02
  Sullivan,
• 7:02
  the senator.
• 7:04
  Um,
• 7:04
  another is Dan J.
• 7:05
  Sullivan,
• 7:06
  uh,
• 7:07
  the,
• 7:07
  uh,
• 7:08
  uh,
• 7:08
  uh,
• 7:09
  the guy who,
• 7:10
  he was independent and then just
• 7:12
  right before this,
• 7:13
  just registered Republican.
• 7:14
  No,
• 7:14
  just total coincidence that he would look like Dan Sullivan as another Republican
• 7:18
  to confuse people.
• 7:19
  And then,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:20
  another one who was the 4th guy,
• 7:21
  guy,
• 7:22
  whoever finished in 4th,
• 7:22
  I can't remember the name,
• 7:23
  was a Democrat.
• 7:25
  So how did the the Democrats work to do this?
• 7:28
  First of all,
• 7:28
  they recruited the Dan,
• 7:29
  the fake Dan Sullivan.
• 7:31
  They also told the 4th-place Democrat
• 7:34
  to back out of the election.
• 7:36
  He dropped out,
• 7:37
  which moved the 5th-place candidate,
• 7:39
  another Republican,
• 7:41
  into the top 4.
• 7:42
  So now,
• 7:43
  Alaskans will see 4 candidates,
• 7:45
  1 Democrat
• 7:46
  and 3 Republicans.
• 7:48
  The 4th Republican was also
• 7:50
  very oddly
• 7:52
  recruited into this race.
• 7:53
  He's just like a guy,
• 7:54
  like,
• 7:54
  like a drywall expert,
• 7:56
  but he finished 4th,
• 7:58
  so now he's on there.
• 7:58
  So now it's 3 Republicans,
• 8:00
  and if people don't rank those Republicans,
• 8:01
  if they pick the wrong one,
• 8:03
  or they don't uh put the actual senator
• 8:05
  on there,
• 8:06
  uh,
• 8:06
  it's possible that this could be the difference in the election.
• 8:10
  So,
• 8:11
  what the Democrats did
• 8:12
  was to,
• 8:13
  to kind of like look far and wide.
• 8:16
  Legitimately,
• 8:17
  there's text messages that prove
• 8:19
  that
• 8:20
  people from the Peeltola campaign
• 8:22
  were going around and looking through
• 8:24
  like basically online listings and phone books
• 8:27
  to find as many Dan Sullivan's as they could find in the state,
• 8:30
  and then call them up and beg them all to run.
• 8:33
  And tell them that they would have financial backing or other,
• 8:35
  uh,
• 8:36
  other perks.
• 8:37
  Um,
• 8:37
  uh,
• 8:38
  the,
• 8:38
  the,
• 8:38
  one of the candidates was told
• 8:40
  he will,
• 8:40
  uh,
• 8:40
  that they will make things happen for you if you run.
• 8:46
  They went through all of this,
• 8:47
  the Peltola campaign,
• 8:48
  the DSCC denied participating in these efforts.
• 8:51
  They were caught,
• 8:51
  red-handed by the New York Times,
• 8:53
  largely because one former Peltola aide kept all of her messages
• 8:57
  and wound up getting fired,
• 8:59
  uh,
• 8:59
  previously and getting upset about that.
• 9:01
  So she kept the messages,
• 9:02
  proved it,
• 9:03
  and then later on,
• 9:05
  God only knows how she was threatened here,
• 9:07
  but later on came to the table and said,
• 9:09
  uh,
• 9:09
  please remove all,
• 9:10
  uh,
• 9:10
  comments I made and all text messages I provided from your story.
• 9:14
  The
• 9:14
  Times is like,
• 9:14
  uh,
• 9:15
  no,
• 9:15
  we're not gonna do that.
• 9:16
  It's not what journalists should normally do.
• 9:18
  I will say,
• 9:19
  the Times.
• 9:20
  Stuck to that.
• 9:21
  They could have just said,
• 9:23
  OK,
• 9:23
  well,
• 9:23
  if you don't want us to do it,
• 9:24
  we won't do it.
• 9:25
  They did actually
• 9:26
  publish this stuff to their credit,
• 9:28
  uh,
• 9:29
  especially a few days before an election.
• 9:31
  Now,
• 9:31
  there have been,
• 9:31
  you know,
• 9:32
  tens of thousands of votes have already been cast
• 9:34
  in Alaska.
• 9:35
  Who knows where this ends up.
• 9:37
  But it is important that we did actually get this before the campaign.
• 9:41
  This is a,
• 9:41
  a race that is very,
• 9:42
  very
• 9:43
  tight,
• 9:43
  and,
• 9:44
  and,
• 9:44
  and the dynamic of the race is important to understand.
• 9:47
  What
• 9:48
  Peltola is asking
• 9:50
  Republicans to do in the state,
• 9:52
  and I'm talking about actual
• 9:53
  Republicans and some independent-leaning Republicans,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:56
  or uh Republican-leaning independents,
• 9:58
  is to say,
• 9:59
  you know what,
• 9:59
  I know you normally feel this way about public policy.
• 10:02
  I know normally you feel this way about all
• 10:05
  these uh different things and you probably wouldn't want,
• 10:07
  you know,
• 10:08
  Chuck Schumer
• 10:09
  in charge of the Senate again.
• 10:11
  You probably don't want Democratic control,
• 10:12
  but look past that
• 10:14
  because number one,
• 10:15
  I,
• 10:15
  Mary Peltoll,
• 10:16
  am different.
• 10:17
  I'm different.
• 10:17
  I'm not like
• 10:19
  AOC.
• 10:20
  I'm not like Gavin Newsom.
• 10:21
  I'm not like Chuck Schumer.
• 10:23
  I'm like you.
• 10:25
  I'm basically Lisa Murkowski.
• 10:27
  She quotes a freaking Lisa Murkowski endlessly.
• 10:30
  Uh,
• 10:30
  the other Alaska senator who's again,
• 10:32
  uh,
• 10:32
  a more moderate Republican.
• 10:34
  I'm basically her.
• 10:35
  Just vote for me.
• 10:36
  You don't want this Dan Sullivan guy.
• 10:37
  He's bad.
• 10:38
  He's,
• 10:38
  he's done a lot of bad things.
• 10:39
  He's,
• 10:40
  you know,
• 10:40
  he's a,
• 10:40
  you know,
• 10:41
  a Trump guy,
• 10:42
  and,
• 10:42
  and,
• 10:42
  you know,
• 10:42
  he's voting for the war and all those things.
• 10:45
  Uh,
• 10:45
  you don't want him,
• 10:45
  you want me.
• 10:46
  I like fishing.
• 10:47
  That's essentially her case.
• 10:49
  Implicit in that arrangement
• 10:51
  is you have to be able to trust Mary Peltola,
• 10:53
  who is getting millions and millions and millions
• 10:55
  and millions and millions of dollars from Democrats,
• 10:57
  and you have to believe after this what she's
• 10:58
  gonna do with that information that she was bought,
• 11:00
  you know,
• 11:01
  that
• 11:02
  she was funded,
• 11:03
  uh,
• 11:03
  to get this job
• 11:04
  by hardcore Democrats,
• 11:06
  that she's not gonna vote like one.
• 11:08
  Now,
• 11:08
  this is,
• 11:09
  I have to go back in my history,
• 11:10
  uh,
• 11:11
  history books here for a second.
• 11:12
  Let me just flip through them.
• 11:13
  Uh,
• 11:14
  oh,
• 11:14
  yep,
• 11:14
  never happened.
• 11:15
  This never occurs.
• 11:17
  OK?
• 11:17
  Never in history has there been an example of this
• 11:21
  where Democrats will spend
• 11:23
  tens of millions of dollars getting a candidate through and then they're like,
• 11:25
  OK,
• 11:26
  I'm gonna vote like a moderate.
• 11:27
  This never occurs to the Democrats.
• 11:29
  Um,
• 11:29
  so,
• 11:30
  you know,
• 11:30
  again,
• 11:31
  if you believe that,
• 11:31
  you probably believe anything.
• 11:32
  There's nothing I can say that's gonna convince you,
• 11:35
  but I will say,
• 11:36
  um,
• 11:37
  Trust is a major issue there.
• 11:39
  Implicit in the Alaska election,
• 11:41
  in the Kansas
• 11:42
  election,
• 11:42
  in the Nebraska
• 11:45
  election,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:46
  in,
• 11:46
  uh,
• 11:47
  the Texas election,
• 11:48
  certainly,
• 11:49
  are these promises
• 11:51
  that these
• 11:52
  obvious left-wing candidates
• 11:54
  are actually just kind of moderates who,
• 11:58
  they can't even believe these Democrats.
• 11:59
  Can you believe what they're saying?
• 12:01
  You know,
• 12:01
  the same things I was saying right before I ran.
• 12:04
  Uh,
• 12:04
  can you Believe this?
• 12:06
  Wow,
• 12:06
  James Tallarico,
• 12:07
  can you believe this?
• 12:08
  These woke people over here,
• 12:10
  they're saying things like,
• 12:11
  you know,
• 12:11
  trans rights are human rights and,
• 12:14
  and sports,
• 12:15
  and,
• 12:15
  you know,
• 12:15
  we should have men and women.
• 12:16
  I can't believe these Democrats.
• 12:18
  Yes,
• 12:19
  sure,
• 12:19
  most of the clips that you've seen were me saying this like 6 months ago,
• 12:23
  but
• 12:24
  ignore that.
• 12:25
  There is a,
• 12:26
  an ask for trust.
• 12:28
  And why this this race in a very,
• 12:30
  very close race in a red state is important,
• 12:33
  is because,
• 12:34
  and why the story is important,
• 12:35
  is because they're asking you to trust Mary Peltola,
• 12:38
  and she's been lying to you
• 12:40
  for months and months and months and months about how
• 12:41
  her and her campaign having nothing to do with this.
• 12:44
  They can't possibly believe anyone would ever think that they'd
• 12:47
  have something to do with running another Dan Sullivan.
• 12:49
  It's totally coincidence.
• 12:50
  This teacher
• 12:51
  just decided he wanted to be senator.
• 12:54
  We now know that's a complete lie,
• 12:56
  and she's gonna try to get out of it,
• 12:58
  but you should know that about her before you cast your vote,
• 13:00
  and you should know that about,
• 13:01
  frankly,
• 13:02
  all the situations where Democrats are doing the same thing.
• 13:04
  Let me list them for you,
• 13:06
  shall I?
• 13:06
  Nebraska.
• 13:08
  It's the same thing.
• 13:09
  In Nebraska,
• 13:10
  they're running Dan Osborne,
• 13:12
  hoping you won't realize he's a Democrat.
• 13:16
  In South Dakota,
• 13:17
  they're doing this,
• 13:18
  in Idaho,
• 13:19
  they're doing this,
• 13:20
  in Montana,
• 13:21
  they're doing this.
• 13:22
  They're running independents that are not independents,
• 13:25
  hoping
• 13:26
  you will be dumb enough not to realize it.
• 13:28
  That is their bet.
• 13:31
  The same thing in Alaska.
• 13:32
  They're hoping you won't realize which Dan Sullivan is the right Dan Sullivan.
• 13:37
  And
• 13:38
  think about what they're doing there.
• 13:39
  This party that constantly talks about,
• 13:41
  oh gosh,
• 13:41
  well,
• 13:41
  all we care about is democracy.
• 13:44
  Remember,
• 13:44
  back to,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:45
  I'll bring you back to Bush versus Gore for a second.
• 13:48
  The intent of the voter.
• 13:49
  We have to look at the dimpled jads to make sure what that person meant,
• 13:54
  and they were just too weak to push the piece of paper
• 13:57
  through the little,
• 13:58
  uh,
• 13:59
  perforated slot.
• 14:00
  Uh,
• 14:01
  we have to
• 14:02
  determine
• 14:02
  the intent of the voter.
• 14:04
  Well,
• 14:04
  the intent of the voter is not to vote for some teacher they never heard of.
• 14:08
  And it's certainly not a pushing democracy
• 14:11
  by trying to fake out voters in state after state after state after state
• 14:16
  to get power.
• 14:17
  That's not democracy.
• 14:20
  Now,
• 14:20
  look,
• 14:20
  we all know Republican politicians can be dirtbags too.
• 14:23
  Um,
• 14:24
  you know,
• 14:24
  there,
• 14:24
  I don't have any examples for you of this particular thing occurring right now,
• 14:28
  but I,
• 14:28
  I'm sure,
• 14:29
  you know,
• 14:29
  it's happened.
• 14:30
  Um,
• 14:31
  I'm sure they've done things like that too.
• 14:32
  I don't like that either.
• 14:33
  But right now,
• 14:34
  we have a,
• 14:35
  an entire strategy built over half the nation of this,
• 14:37
  of,
• 14:38
  of,
• 14:38
  of trying to win elections this way,
• 14:40
  and you should know about it.
• 14:41
  Alaska governor orders investigation into Democratic Senate's campaign.
• 14:44
  This is what Mike Dunleavy said.
• 14:46
  Today's New York Times reporting
• 14:47
  reveals disturbing new evidence of an organized effort
• 14:50
  to manipulate Alaska's elections by recruiting candidates,
• 14:52
  including one with the same name as an incumbent US senator,
• 14:55
  to deliberately
• 14:57
  confuse voters and misdirect their votes.
• 15:00
  The Alaska Division of Elections investigated these
• 15:02
  very concerns in June of this year.
• 15:04
  The new reporting substantially supports the division's findings.
• 15:08
  Etc.
• 15:08
  etc.
• 15:09
  etc.
• 15:09
  This is what the market looks like right now and you will see,
• 15:12
  it's not just me thinking this way.
• 15:14
  You can see a drop-off from about 75 down to 70% after this news came out.
• 15:19
  This is a close election anyway.
• 15:20
  I honestly think Peltola,
• 15:22
  I don't know if she should really be at 75,
• 15:25
  that seems a little high anyway.
• 15:27
  70 a little bit more appropriate.
• 15:28
  I do think she's the slight favorite.
• 15:31
  But that is what the election is showing right now.
• 15:33
  We will see if that holds.
• 15:35
  I wanna bring over one other quick story here.
• 15:37
  Ilhan Omar,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:38
  she's being investigated under a new scrutiny of long disputed marriage.
• 15:42
  This is again,
• 15:43
  oddly in the New York Times.
• 15:45
  Basically,
• 15:46
  I mean,
• 15:47
  look,
• 15:47
  I'll summarize it for you.
• 15:48
  Yeah,
• 15:48
  she kinda married her brother.
• 15:50
  That's basically what the report says.
• 15:52
  Now,
• 15:52
  it's not that definitive,
• 15:53
  of course,
• 15:54
  and,
• 15:54
  you know,
• 15:55
  uh,
• 15:55
  and if you don't know who I'm talking about,
• 15:56
  Ilana Maher,
• 15:57
  of course,
• 15:57
  a congresswoman,
• 15:58
  you may know her best from her appearance in a Maroon 5 music video.
• 16:02
  Which I
• 16:03
  am legally required to bring up every single time,
• 16:06
  uh,
• 16:06
  that,
• 16:07
  uh,
• 16:07
  that I talk about Elon Amar,
• 16:08
  and I will say,
• 16:09
  many people,
• 16:10
  many people would find it more reputable
• 16:13
  to marry your brother
• 16:15
  than to marry Adam Levine,
• 16:16
  uh,
• 16:16
  you know.
• 16:20
  Federal investigation of Omar is focused on whether she had a sham marriage in 2009.
• 16:24
  It's also focused on whether she was born in 1981 or 198982,
• 16:27
  which would defend,
• 16:28
  uh,
• 16:28
  would,
• 16:28
  would
• 16:29
  basically affect her immigration status.
• 16:32
  Uh,
• 16:32
  you know,
• 16:32
  it kind of reminds me,
• 16:33
  we,
• 16:34
  uh,
• 16:34
  if you go back to my old show,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:35
  Ben Weingarten was on the show.
• 16:36
  He wrote a book called American Ingrate,
• 16:38
  and it went through all the evidence here,
• 16:39
  and this is one of those things
• 16:41
  that you hear on social media.
• 16:42
  Oh,
• 16:42
  she married her brother,
• 16:43
  and you're like,
• 16:44
  oh gosh,
• 16:44
  you know,
• 16:44
  it's just another partisan attack.
• 16:46
  Maybe you think it's funny.
• 16:49
  There's real stuff here.
• 16:50
  This is like a real thing.
• 16:51
  And the New York Times kind of confirms it in their reporting today.
• 16:54
  Now,
• 16:54
  I don't expect the markets to change that much.
• 16:56
  Can we see the markets?
• 16:57
  This is,
• 16:58
  uh,
• 16:58
  Ilanamar,
• 16:58
  Minnesota 5 is her district.
• 17:00
  Uh,
• 17:01
  she is at a 96.2% chance to win.
• 17:03
  As I mentioned to you the other day,
• 17:04
  I don't care if she gets arrested and dragged out of her house before this election,
• 17:07
  she's still gonna win by a lot.
• 17:09
  Um,
• 17:10
  you know,
• 17:10
  because that's just what this district is,
• 17:12
  a very,
• 17:12
  very blue district,
• 17:13
  and she's going to win.
• 17:15
  But,
• 17:16
  Uh,
• 17:16
  kind of an interesting situation there.
• 17:18
  I will say this is interesting as well,
• 17:20
  maybe a more interesting Ihan Omar market.
• 17:22
  Uh,
• 17:23
  here's a Calhi live view of who will be charged with a federal crime
• 17:26
  this year.
• 17:27
  Ihan Omar,
• 17:28
  46% chance.
• 17:31
  Interesting.
• 17:32
  Now Corey Lewandowski's on that list,
• 17:34
  which is fascinating.
• 17:35
  Uh,
• 17:36
  John Brennan,
• 17:36
  there's a bunch of like,
• 17:37
  uh,
• 17:38
  Lewandowski's more been a Trump friend,
• 17:40
  but you kind of go down this list,
• 17:40
  it's a bunch of Trump enemies,
• 17:42
  most,
• 17:42
  most of them are pretty,
• 17:43
  uh,
• 17:44
  low.
• 17:44
  Dan Jay Sullivan is on the list.
• 17:46
  I will say,
• 17:47
  if he participated in this,
• 17:48
  and it is illegal,
• 17:49
  if he did,
• 17:50
  um,
• 17:51
  claim that this was totally organic
• 17:53
  to the courts.
• 17:54
  There could be charges coming against him.
• 17:56
  You see a bunch of other Trump enemies there.
• 17:57
  It's a,
• 17:58
  it's a fun market to play because,
• 18:00
  uh,
• 18:00
  I don't know,
• 18:00
  you never know what's gonna come around the corner in that one.
• 18:02
  And then will the US move to revoke Elon Omar's citizenship this year?
• 18:06
  Uh,
• 18:06
  it is at 54%.
• 18:08
  The only thing I'd be curious,
• 18:09
  uh,
• 18:09
  this,
• 18:10
  you know,
• 18:10
  it's only a couple of months,
• 18:11
  so there's not a long time for this process to go through.
• 18:15
  Uh,
• 18:15
  but move to revoke,
• 18:17
  pretty open term.
• 18:18
  We could go,
• 18:18
  there's not a ton of,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:20
  time or,
• 18:20
  uh,
• 18:20
  volume in this market,
• 18:22
  but it is an interesting one.
• 18:23
  Definitely check the rules on that,
• 18:25
  uh,
• 18:25
  before you invest in the market.
• 18:27
  And by the way,
• 18:27
  you should do that every time.
• 18:28
  It is the,
• 18:29
  uh,
• 18:29
  Second Amendment,
• 18:29
  the predictable Constitution.
• 18:31
  You gotta read the rules.
• 18:33
  When you say move
• 18:34
  to,
• 18:35
  uh,
• 18:35
  to,
• 18:35
  to end her,
• 18:36
  her,
• 18:37
  uh,
• 18:38
  status in this country.
• 18:39
  What does that mean,
• 18:40
  right?
• 18:41
  Well,
• 18:41
  the rules will spell that out for you,
• 18:42
  so always read the rules.
• 18:44
  OK,
• 18:44
  I'm gonna take a break.
• 18:44
  I'm gonna come back.
• 18:45
  I wanna talk to Alex Keeney.
• 18:46
  He's a guy who,
• 18:47
  uh,
• 18:47
  hosts a show called Eventual,
• 18:48
  and,
• 18:49
  uh,
• 18:49
  he's the founder of that,
• 18:50
  uh,
• 18:51
  group.
• 18:53
  He's a guy who's,
• 18:53
  you know,
• 18:54
  been around prediction markets for a really long time
• 18:57
  and talks to some of the top traders in America.
• 18:59
  I wanna get his vibes on the election,
• 19:01
  what he's thinking,
• 19:03
  maybe some strategy talk as well when we get into election night.
• 19:06
  We'll talk to him next.
• 19:24
  Uh,
• 19:25
  one of the reasons I started the show
• 19:27
  was because I would watch every couple of years,
• 19:30
  uh,
• 19:31
  election coverage that was at times
• 19:33
  absolutely terrible,
• 19:34
  right?
• 19:34
  Like absolutely legitimately terrible,
• 19:37
  and I was hoping to maybe improve that by like
• 19:39
  0.1%. That was pretty much all I wanted to do.
• 19:42
  Uh,
• 19:42
  and that goes along even deeper with prediction markets where,
• 19:46
  honestly,
• 19:46
  it makes
• 19:47
  mainstream media's,
• 19:48
  uh,
• 19:49
  election coverage look good in comparison to
• 19:51
  the way they talk about prediction markets.
• 19:53
  And that's one of the reasons why I'm really happy
• 19:55
  that we have now
• 19:57
  at least some
• 19:59
  content that comes out about prediction markets from people who really know them,
• 20:02
  uh,
• 20:02
  from people who've been in them for a long time
• 20:04
  that really understand this world and can cover it well.
• 20:08
  And it's one of the reasons I'm really happy that Alex Keeney exists.
• 20:11
  Uh,
• 20:11
  he is coming on the program right now.
• 20:13
  He's the founder,
• 20:14
  host,
• 20:14
  and CEO of Eventual,
• 20:16
  which you can check out at eventual.news talking about prediction markets.
• 20:20
  Alex Keeney,
• 20:20
  welcome to the program,
• 20:21
  man.
• 20:22
  Hey,
• 20:22
  Stu,
• 20:23
  thanks for having me.
• 20:24
  Yeah,
• 20:24
  really excited that you were able to,
• 20:25
  to make it on.
• 20:26
  Uh,
• 20:27
  we are obviously kind of in crunch time.
• 20:28
  I was talking to somebody about this of like,
• 20:30
  you know,
• 20:30
  election night's kind of like the prediction market Super Bowl in a way,
• 20:33
  other than the the real Super Bowl.
• 20:35
  Um,
• 20:35
  and,
• 20:36
  uh,
• 20:36
  you know,
• 20:37
  you watch this every day.
• 20:38
  You're,
• 20:38
  you're
• 20:39
  trying to take all this news
• 20:41
  and put it
• 20:42
  into the context of prediction markets.
• 20:44
  Can you kind of give me a sense,
• 20:45
  uh,
• 20:46
  as to how you,
• 20:47
  give me your 50,000 ft view of what the election is going to be?
• 20:50
  Where are we right now?
• 20:52
  Well,
• 20:53
  I,
• 20:53
  I think like people,
• 20:54
  they bring a prediction mark guy onto a news show and they say,
• 20:57
  where are the hot takes?
• 20:58
  Give me the contrarian picks.
• 20:59
  I want like 1000 to 15 star locks.
• 21:02
  The thing that's made this cycle kind of interesting in a way others have not been is
• 21:07
  it's really hard to find the contrarian narrative.
• 21:10
  Like the Republicans are getting nuked in the polls.
• 21:12
  They're getting.
• 21:13
  Naked in kind of small dollar fundraising.
• 21:16
  The president is flying around to states that are
• 21:18
  usually safe holds and campaigning for candidates there.
• 21:21
  So it's
• 21:22
  very hard to find trades that defy like the the the mainstream media notion,
• 21:27
  which is this is going to be a good year for Democrats.
• 21:30
  So,
• 21:30
  um,
• 21:31
  you know,
• 21:31
  my portfolio and the portfolio of people who come and create.
• 21:35
  Content on eventual,
• 21:36
  a lot of the sharps
• 21:37
  is very blue pilled right now,
• 21:39
  and maybe we'll see some surprises on election night,
• 21:41
  but that is sort of the popular interpretation from the kind of eggheaded,
• 21:45
  uh,
• 21:45
  prediction market world right now,
• 21:47
  as far as I can tell.
• 21:48
  Yeah,
• 21:49
  you,
• 21:49
  you bring on some great guests.
• 21:50
  I know you have Domeron,
• 21:51
  you have,
• 21:51
  uh,
• 21:52
  uh,
• 21:52
  Gayon,
• 21:52
  uh,
• 21:53
  you have a great slew of people that you bring on the show
• 21:56
  that are experts,
• 21:57
  you know,
• 21:58
  we have some that come on our show as well,
• 21:59
  people who've made millions of dollars,
• 22:01
  uh,
• 22:01
  on prediction markets.
• 22:03
  When you talk to them,
• 22:04
  is that what they're seeing,
• 22:05
  like,
• 22:06
  you know,
• 22:06
  cause I feel like we're looking at a
• 22:07
  situation where it anywhere from like a blue ripple
• 22:10
  to the blue mega tsunami.
• 22:12
  Like there's not really,
• 22:14
  uh,
• 22:14
  at least in my mind,
• 22:15
  a view where the Republicans are doing very,
• 22:17
  very well,
• 22:17
  but there is a huge range of what this
• 22:20
  blue wave actually means.
• 22:22
  Where do they see it?
• 22:24
  I think,
• 22:25
  like,
• 22:26
  listen,
• 22:26
  there's there's a difference,
• 22:27
  this is anecdotal,
• 22:28
  this no one with a PhD has studied this.
• 22:30
  I think that the sharps and prediction markets tend to lean left.
• 22:33
  I think the retail of prediction markets tends to lean right.
• 22:36
  So like you can sort of see that in people's opinions and stuff,
• 22:39
  but
• 22:40
  I,
• 22:40
  I,
• 22:40
  I think the sharpest traders are much more likely to tell you
• 22:44
  that there is going to be like.
• 22:45
  A Terminator 3 Rise of the Machines,
• 22:48
  atom bomb wipeout for the Republicans,
• 22:51
  than there is to be,
• 22:52
  you know,
• 22:53
  a little bit of indigestion from,
• 22:55
  from losing a race in Ohio and Michigan and kind of playing for a draw somewhere else.
• 22:59
  I,
• 22:59
  I think they're really expecting the worst.
• 23:01
  Yeah,
• 23:01
  it does,
• 23:02
  it does feel that way,
• 23:03
  and you know,
• 23:03
  look,
• 23:04
  we've had surprises before.
• 23:05
  There were people who were predicting a,
• 23:07
  a,
• 23:07
  a red tsunami back in 2022 that never really materialized,
• 23:11
  so we don't know.
• 23:12
  I know we'll be watching this very closely.
• 23:14
  Um,
• 23:14
  you'll be doing,
• 23:15
  I'm sure stuff on election night as well as we are.
• 23:18
  Do you have what,
• 23:19
  like,
• 23:19
  give me some approaches
• 23:20
  on election night as these
• 23:22
  results are coming out.
• 23:24
  Uh,
• 23:24
  you know,
• 23:24
  a lot of people like to say in the media,
• 23:26
  oh,
• 23:26
  all they're doing is like looking at the vote counts,
• 23:28
  and it goes up when the vote counts go up and it comes down when it doesn't go down,
• 23:31
  but it's much more advanced than that.
• 23:32
  People are really modeling this stuff behind the scenes.
• 23:34
  What are your strategies for
• 23:36
  an in the moment election night?
• 23:39
  Uh,
• 23:40
  to have an enormous amount of testicular fortitude
• 23:43
  when the markets start moving against you,
• 23:46
  uh,
• 23:47
  that's,
• 23:47
  that's probably the biggest one.
• 23:48
  I,
• 23:48
  I,
• 23:48
  Stu,
• 23:49
  actually,
• 23:49
  I think this is interesting because you did,
• 23:51
  did,
• 23:51
  did you trade unpredicted back in the day?
• 23:53
  Like,
• 23:53
  are you,
• 23:53
  are you a predicted guy or do you,
• 23:54
  yeah,
• 23:55
  I went back to in trade,
• 23:56
  yeah,
• 23:56
  way back in the day.
• 23:58
  Oh,
• 23:58
  that is like true OG status,
• 24:00
  um.
• 24:02
  I,
• 24:02
  I,
• 24:03
  being able to live trade on election night is kind of a new thing cause,
• 24:06
  you know,
• 24:06
  predicted more often than not would kind of like grind and
• 24:09
  slow and you had to be pretty confident in your positions,
• 24:12
  um,
• 24:13
  you know,
• 24:13
  going into the vote because you knew the site was
• 24:15
  going to kind of sketch out at a certain point.
• 24:17
  So I think like election night trading,
• 24:19
  uh.
• 24:20
  What are the skills?
• 24:21
  One,
• 24:22
  like having,
• 24:23
  having a good idea about what's gonna happen early
• 24:26
  and what that means for what's gonna happen late.
• 24:28
  So like if we were NFL coaches,
• 24:30
  right,
• 24:30
  we'd have our scripted plays,
• 24:31
  like our 1st 10 or 20 plays would be scripted,
• 24:33
  and then we'd have like our down and distance for the rest of the game.
• 24:36
  And,
• 24:37
  and I think like a really airtight trading plan,
• 24:39
  someone who's,
• 24:40
  you know,
• 24:40
  not gonna be buying their kids Christmas presents,
• 24:43
  or,
• 24:43
  well,
• 24:43
  we don't.
• 24:44
  To be negative.
• 24:45
  Uh,
• 24:45
  someone who's driving a Lamborghini because
• 24:46
  they're a good prediction market trader
• 24:48
  is gonna have
• 24:50
  their downs and distances scripted out.
• 24:52
  They're gonna have like,
• 24:53
  well,
• 24:53
  what's happening
• 24:54
  with Paige Cognetti in Pennsylvania 8?
• 24:57
  Um,
• 24:57
  what's happening with Scott Perry in is it Pennsylvania 2 or 5?
• 25:02
  How is the vote turning out in South Carolina
• 25:04
  where suddenly the polls say Republicans should be concerned?
• 25:07
  Oh.
• 25:07
  Florida,
• 25:08
  that's an important state.
• 25:09
  Um,
• 25:10
  usually they count early,
• 25:11
  so I'll have more of my money in Florida,
• 25:12
  so when those polls close,
• 25:13
  I can move them.
• 25:14
  So I think
• 25:15
  having your sort of scripted plays and you're down and distance
• 25:18
  to
• 25:18
  to move money as results come in,
• 25:20
  and then just having like the extraordinary backbone to just like sit in the pocket
• 25:24
  and take a couple hits while everyone else panics and like you buy fear,
• 25:28
  you know,
• 25:29
  that that is a skill that's
• 25:31
  Hard to learn.
• 25:32
  I don't always have it,
• 25:33
  but the,
• 25:33
  the,
• 25:34
  yeah,
• 25:34
  so I,
• 25:34
  I will give you that long wind up,
• 25:36
  but that's,
• 25:37
  that's where I would start.
• 25:38
  Yeah,
• 25:38
  uh,
• 25:39
  it's really interesting.
• 25:40
  It's,
• 25:40
  it,
• 25:41
  you know,
• 25:41
  I think it has changed over the years so much,
• 25:43
  you know,
• 25:43
  I know you've been doing this for a very long time as well,
• 25:46
  and,
• 25:46
  you know,
• 25:47
  one of the things I've,
• 25:47
  I've noticed,
• 25:48
  at least in this cycle,
• 25:50
  and I don't know if it's the change from a predicted,
• 25:52
  you know,
• 25:53
  I love predicted,
• 25:53
  and they're,
• 25:54
  you know,
• 25:54
  they're,
• 25:55
  they've improved the site,
• 25:56
  I think,
• 25:57
  quite a bit over the years,
• 25:57
  but I do remember those old days,
• 25:59
  uh,
• 25:59
  where things would like slow down.
• 26:01
  Um,
• 26:02
  it also had those limits though,
• 26:04
  right?
• 26:04
  It had those $850 limits,
• 26:06
  and,
• 26:07
  you know,
• 26:07
  first of all,
• 26:08
  it helped keep you a little bit under control,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:10
  but secondly,
• 26:11
  it was a situation where,
• 26:13
  um,
• 26:14
  It was hard to move those things into some of these areas where we're seeing,
• 26:19
  we're seeing,
• 26:19
  you know,
• 26:19
  some of these races
• 26:21
  that will be a 4 or 5 point margin in the polls
• 26:25
  that are into the 90s,
• 26:26
  right?
• 26:26
  Like into the,
• 26:27
  you know,
• 26:28
  into the low 90s,
• 26:29
  high 80s,
• 26:30
  where I feel like previous.
• 26:31
  Elections,
• 26:32
  it wouldn't necessarily move that far,
• 26:35
  and I,
• 26:35
  and I don't,
• 26:36
  I,
• 26:36
  you know,
• 26:36
  running this by you as kind of a,
• 26:37
  a working theory in my head.
• 26:39
  It feels like
• 26:40
  what we've seen over the past couple of weeks
• 26:42
  is a lot of money coming in,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:44
  to the election at the last minute
• 26:45
  and forcing these favorites higher and higher and higher and higher
• 26:49
  and like I don't have a great idea as to
• 26:51
  like one of these underdogs that is going to outperform,
• 26:54
  but they do exist.
• 26:55
  We will see those things happen,
• 26:57
  um,
• 26:58
  on,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  on Tuesday night.
• 27:00
  Do you think that is,
• 27:01
  with all the unlimited money,
• 27:02
  all the expertise coming into these fields now,
• 27:04
  are we seeing favorites getting too high before election day?
• 27:09
  Um,
• 27:10
  boy,
• 27:11
  that's a,
• 27:11
  that's a complicated question.
• 27:13
  Uh,
• 27:14
  certainly in some instances we are,
• 27:16
  and certainly in other instances
• 27:18
  we are not.
• 27:19
  I,
• 27:19
  I think also
• 27:20
  something that you'll observe in the markets,
• 27:22
  you know,
• 27:22
  if you trade a few elections,
• 27:24
  actually if you trade a few of anything,
• 27:26
  is
• 27:27
  the,
• 27:27
  the numbers change quickly.
• 27:29
  Call it like 12 to 24 hours before the election,
• 27:31
  like the weekends kind of.
• 27:33
  Sober up or people take their profits or um so,
• 27:37
  so there's like,
• 27:38
  I feel like the prices for these trades will be kind of what they are,
• 27:42
  plus or minus a few cents for the next couple of days.
• 27:45
  Uh,
• 27:45
  and then we'll see maybe a couple really startling variations,
• 27:50
  uh,
• 27:50
  closer to election day,
• 27:51
  but I,
• 27:52
  I mean,
• 27:52
  I think you're right.
• 27:52
  I think the markets are very tight right now,
• 27:55
  and,
• 27:55
  um,
• 27:56
  you know,
• 27:56
  you see some sort of dummy trades getting expensive as people sort
• 27:59
  of search for what they think is like easy value down,
• 28:02
  down ballot in some of these states,
• 28:04
  but I,
• 28:04
  I,
• 28:04
  I would be careful,
• 28:05
  frankly,
• 28:06
  you know,
• 28:06
  I would be careful,
• 28:08
  you know,
• 28:08
  starting a trading book on some of these competitive trades right now.
• 28:11
  Alex,
• 28:12
  when you're,
• 28:12
  when you're in these markets,
• 28:13
  how often do you
• 28:14
  enter them with the idea
• 28:17
  that you're holding them to resolution?
• 28:19
  As opposed to buying something and then thinking,
• 28:22
  well,
• 28:23
  uh,
• 28:23
  if it gets up to 70,
• 28:25
  I'm gonna sell it and take my profits.
• 28:27
  Are you often going in there with that idea that,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  and I know a lot of these really smart traders
• 28:32
  do think that way.
• 28:33
  Are you doing that a lot where you're going in for just
• 28:36
  potential gains and like knowing you're gonna exit at a particular position,
• 28:39
  or
• 28:40
  are you going in there thinking,
• 28:41
  I'm,
• 28:41
  I'm riding this to the end unless something changes?
• 28:44
  I,
• 28:44
  I mean,
• 28:44
  look,
• 28:45
  you put 5 traders in a bar and like get them a pitcher of beer,
• 28:48
  and they won't have the answer to this when they're at the bottom of it,
• 28:50
  right?
• 28:50
  Like what do you do?
• 28:51
  I,
• 28:51
  I,
• 28:51
  I,
• 28:52
  I,
• 28:52
  I tend not to,
• 28:53
  like,
• 28:53
  I'll trade in and out of stuff a lot.
• 28:54
  Like I,
• 28:55
  I think I'm pretty good at being like a step ahead,
• 28:57
  but,
• 28:57
  you know,
• 28:58
  just being like stone cold right in a,
• 29:00
  you know,
• 29:01
  a state like Michigan is
• 29:03
  That takes a lot of confidence,
• 29:04
  right?
• 29:05
  Like,
• 29:05
  I,
• 29:05
  I,
• 29:06
  I don't know,
• 29:06
  what,
• 29:06
  what do you do?
• 29:07
  I mean,
• 29:07
  I would,
• 29:07
  I would love to be persuaded of one plan of attack versus the other.
• 29:10
  It's a,
• 29:11
  it's an interesting one because a lot of people
• 29:12
  ask me this because it's one of the things,
• 29:15
  you know,
• 29:15
  um,
• 29:15
  that's
• 29:16
  really cool and different about prediction markets,
• 29:19
  you know,
• 29:19
  some of the prediction markets have started to add.
• 29:20
  That feature
• 29:21
  where you can when you buy,
• 29:23
  they tell you,
• 29:24
  would you like to set a sales price,
• 29:26
  right?
• 29:26
  Like,
• 29:27
  you know,
• 29:27
  and I think that's a good tool for people
• 29:29
  to,
• 29:29
  to think that way.
• 29:31
  I,
• 29:32
  I,
• 29:32
  I think
• 29:33
  90% of the time I enter a contract with the idea
• 29:36
  that I'm gonna run it to resolution,
• 29:38
  and I think that makes me a,
• 29:39
  a more,
• 29:40
  I don't know,
• 29:41
  amateurish trader perhaps,
• 29:43
  uh,
• 29:43
  because I,
• 29:44
  I,
• 29:44
  I,
• 29:44
  a lot of times I,
• 29:45
  uh,
• 29:46
  I,
• 29:46
  I wanna say to myself if I.
• 29:48
  You know,
• 29:49
  I don't know,
• 29:49
  I go on vacation and I forget to check my prices.
• 29:52
  I want to be confident in my position at that time that I could ride it all the way out.
• 29:55
  Now,
• 29:56
  once you get to a certain point and you have enough profit,
• 29:58
  and
• 29:59
  a lot of times I can convince myself,
• 30:00
  you know what,
• 30:00
  there's what's left here.
• 30:03
  Uh,
• 30:03
  the risk is just not a big,
• 30:05
  uh,
• 30:05
  it's not worth it.
• 30:06
  Like we had a contract we talked a lot about on our show,
• 30:09
  which was whether LeBron James would retire
• 30:12
  and watching LeBron James over the year,
• 30:14
  there's no way this guy doesn't take a victory lap here.
• 30:16
  There's just,
• 30:17
  that's just not going,
• 30:17
  he's not announcing that and not showing up for the year.
• 30:20
  I just don't buy it.
• 30:21
  So we had a big position on that,
• 30:23
  and then he announced he was coming back
• 30:26
  and it shot up to 98.
• 30:28
  It was still 2 months before the season started,
• 30:31
  and it's like,
• 30:31
  well,
• 30:32
  you know,
• 30:32
  I think I was right on that.
• 30:34
  I could rise,
• 30:34
  I could ride that.
• 30:35
  He obviously is already under contract with the Sixers.
• 30:37
  He's gonna,
• 30:38
  you know,
• 30:38
  all the intents and purposes play,
• 30:41
  but that 2 cents,
• 30:42
  you know,
• 30:42
  it's just not worth it.
• 30:43
  We talk about this often.
• 30:44
  Time equals risk,
• 30:45
  know your APR.
• 30:47
  These types of things
• 30:48
  are really crucial to know when you enter and exit a contract.
• 30:51
  Do,
• 30:51
  do you,
• 30:52
  do you,
• 30:52
  do you agree with that take?
• 30:53
  Yeah,
• 30:53
  yeah,
• 30:54
  I,
• 30:55
  there's like a weird,
• 30:57
  um,
• 30:58
  You know,
• 30:58
  some data geek is going to tell me I'm wrong about this,
• 31:00
  but I stand by it.
• 31:02
  There's some like very risky channel of lava that seems to flow by,
• 31:06
  like the last few percentage points of value,
• 31:08
  where like,
• 31:09
  you know,
• 31:10
  at the end of the day,
• 31:11
  you're
• 31:11
  trading on human beings,
• 31:13
  and like,
• 31:14
  I don't know,
• 31:15
  they have children and spouses who might be upset with them,
• 31:18
  uh,
• 31:18
  they might be in bad health,
• 31:20
  like,
• 31:20
  you know,
• 31:20
  LeBron.
• 31:21
  James could go ride a unicycle and fall off of it,
• 31:24
  you know,
• 31:24
  like,
• 31:25
  so I,
• 31:25
  I,
• 31:25
  I,
• 31:26
  I think,
• 31:26
  you know,
• 31:27
  there's probably a class of trader that's more quantitative focused and
• 31:30
  more professionalized than like the OGs who dominate the space now,
• 31:33
  who say that they know how to price that risk better.
• 31:35
  But I think most of the good traders know that if you can get 95 cents out of a trade,
• 31:39
  96,
• 31:39
  97 cents out of a trade,
• 31:41
  like that's a good time to walk away.
• 31:42
  Yeah,
• 31:43
  I think that's true.
• 31:44
  Um,
• 31:45
  just talking theory because I could talk theory with you,
• 31:47
  I think all day or Alex,
• 31:48
  uh,
• 31:49
  uh,
• 31:50
  how do you deal with,
• 31:51
  with losing?
• 31:53
  How do you deal with,
• 31:54
  you,
• 31:54
  you make something you take that you're really
• 31:56
  confident in that blows up in your face,
• 31:58
  or,
• 31:59
  you know,
• 31:59
  I've had a couple of these during this election,
• 32:01
  which
• 32:01
  I had a read on it.
• 32:02
  Like I had a read on,
• 32:04
  uh,
• 32:04
  you know,
• 32:05
  um,
• 32:05
  I'm trying to think of the right,
• 32:06
  the right race,
• 32:07
  you know,
• 32:07
  I,
• 32:07
  I took a large position on Koech in Oregon.
• 32:11
  And I was like,
• 32:11
  well,
• 32:11
  this is a little close.
• 32:12
  I,
• 32:12
  it didn't play out.
• 32:14
  I thought she'd be up by 7 or 8 points right now.
• 32:15
  I still think she probably wins,
• 32:17
  but I'm less confident.
• 32:18
  And now I look at this and I say,
• 32:19
  well,
• 32:19
  my price where I got that,
• 32:21
  I am down.
• 32:22
  I still think I'm OK with it.
• 32:24
  I kept most of it,
• 32:24
  but I trimmed it a little bit.
• 32:26
  You know,
• 32:26
  doing,
• 32:27
  doing those moves,
• 32:28
  I don't know,
• 32:28
  it,
• 32:28
  it,
• 32:28
  it hurts me physically,
• 32:29
  Alex.
• 32:30
  I,
• 32:30
  I don't want to admit that I'm wrong.
• 32:32
  I don't want to admit that I've taken a position that's turned against me and
• 32:35
  maybe.
• 32:36
  Uh,
• 32:37
  is in the wrong place.
• 32:38
  Do you look at that and do the exercise where you say,
• 32:41
  would I buy this position where it is right now at this size?
• 32:45
  Do you try,
• 32:45
  do you go through the exercise where you're saying,
• 32:47
  well,
• 32:47
  what is,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:48
  you know,
• 32:48
  fair value in my mind right now and am I fully priced?
• 32:51
  How often do you look back at that stuff?
• 32:54
  Sometimes I ask myself,
• 32:57
  what is the most obvious thing in the world
• 33:00
  if I was a random person and how far out of sync am I with
• 33:04
  like the most obvious thing in the world if I was a random person.
• 33:08
  And oftentimes in politics,
• 33:09
  the answer is that like there's this idea,
• 33:12
  like if you hear bad election forecasters,
• 33:14
  I'm I'm not going to name any names,
• 33:16
  but like,
• 33:16
  they're out there.
• 33:18
  And I feel like sometimes they think that their job is to be
• 33:20
  contrarian and to unearth insights that would never occur to a normal person.
• 33:26
  And like most of the time that's not the job.
• 33:27
  Like most of the time,
• 33:29
  seeing a trend that's kind of obvious and applying it is,
• 33:32
  is the job.
• 33:33
  Um,
• 33:34
  so that's,
• 33:34
  I,
• 33:35
  I guess that's kind of my test.
• 33:36
  It's like the random person test.
• 33:38
  Um,
• 33:39
  but like losing sucks,
• 33:40
  you know,
• 33:40
  like I got into this because I'm sort of competitive.
• 33:43
  your intro,
• 33:44
  spot on.
• 33:44
  Like I just hated the way people were covering politics in the,
• 33:47
  in the first Trump era.
• 33:48
  Uh,
• 33:49
  I thought that there were like entire stories and narrative.
• 33:51
  That were being left out of the discourse,
• 33:53
  and they,
• 33:54
  they played a role in the market.
• 33:55
  So like the markets were very attractive to me.
• 33:57
  So like the competition is what
• 33:59
  I like,
• 34:00
  but like you remember all of your defeats,
• 34:02
  right?
• 34:02
  Like I don't really remember most of the markets that I've won in in my life,
• 34:05
  but I,
• 34:06
  I really remember the ones that I've lost in,
• 34:08
  you know,
• 34:08
  those are the ones that stick with you.
• 34:10
  Oh gosh,
• 34:10
  it's so true.
• 34:11
  I don't even say the name Francesca Hong to me at any point.
• 34:14
  Uh,
• 34:14
  oh no,
• 34:15
  you did it.
• 34:15
  You were that guy.
• 34:16
  I was,
• 34:17
  I mean,
• 34:17
  I,
• 34:17
  I had a very small position on it,
• 34:19
  but I did think it was gonna happen and when,
• 34:20
  and it was,
• 34:21
  you know,
• 34:21
  you talk about having strong hands through those things.
• 34:23
  When it dropped from 95 to 81,
• 34:26
  I was like.
• 34:27
  I think this is incredible value at 81.
• 34:29
  I still think she's gonna win this,
• 34:30
  and she almost did.
• 34:31
  She did come back,
• 34:32
  and I was able to get out with a little bit of a loss,
• 34:34
  but it's still,
• 34:34
  it's just one of those that just burns me.
• 34:36
  Um,
• 34:37
  last question,
• 34:37
  uh,
• 34:38
  Amy Klobuchar,
• 34:39
  that's mine.
• 34:40
  Amy Klobuchar in 2020.
• 34:42
  God,
• 34:42
  the names,
• 34:42
  the names you could go through.
• 34:44
  Um,
• 34:44
  let,
• 34:44
  let me ask you one more before you go,
• 34:46
  Alex.
• 34:46
  Um,
• 34:47
  one of the things you talk about is,
• 34:48
  is the media.
• 34:48
  We talk about this a lot,
• 34:49
  the media diet,
• 34:51
  um.
• 34:52
  Is,
• 34:52
  is,
• 34:53
  uh,
• 34:53
  every,
• 34:54
  every day you could find a story where the narrative is wrong.
• 34:56
  It's,
• 34:56
  it's driven by someone's motivations.
• 34:59
  Um,
• 34:59
  you know,
• 34:59
  you,
• 34:59
  you mentioned some of the forecasters that might not be,
• 35:02
  uh,
• 35:02
  doing such a great job when it comes to forecasting.
• 35:05
  They're doing a great job growing their social media followings though,
• 35:07
  right?
• 35:07
  Like the incentive structure there
• 35:10
  is come out with a contrarian claim,
• 35:12
  back it,
• 35:12
  back it,
• 35:13
  back it,
• 35:13
  back it,
• 35:13
  back it,
• 35:14
  and after the day after the election,
• 35:15
  no one remembers,
• 35:15
  but you got,
• 35:16
  you got a million followers.
• 35:18
  The incentives
• 35:19
  of prediction markets,
• 35:20
  one of the reasons I love them so much,
• 35:22
  is,
• 35:22
  are the opposite.
• 35:23
  You are putting your money where your mouth is.
• 35:25
  You,
• 35:25
  you can't play that
• 35:27
  game.
• 35:27
  You can't be motivated by your wants and
• 35:29
  your desires and the campaign or whatever else.
• 35:32
  So,
• 35:33
  make the case here,
• 35:34
  Alex,
• 35:34
  are prediction markets good for society?
• 35:36
  What do they bring to the table?
• 35:39
  Oh,
• 35:39
  I think so for sure.
• 35:40
  I,
• 35:41
  I mean,
• 35:41
  first of all,
• 35:42
  uh,
• 35:42
  politic,
• 35:43
  we're talking about politics,
• 35:44
  of course they cover more things than that,
• 35:45
  but like
• 35:46
  you're talking about,
• 35:47
  I'm gonna steal from Brian Golden,
• 35:49
  one of the great traders and one of our guys over at Eventual.
• 35:52
  Uh,
• 35:52
  he,
• 35:52
  he,
• 35:53
  you know,
• 35:53
  politics is kind of like a diamond,
• 35:54
  so you get another way to see,
• 35:56
  you know,
• 35:56
  one of the many angles through the markets.
• 35:58
  I think you get a tool that
• 36:00
  values information in real time,
• 36:02
  like does that headline matter?
• 36:04
  Uh,
• 36:04
  is that scandal real?
• 36:05
  Is that,
• 36:06
  uh,
• 36:07
  reporter credible.
• 36:08
  Um,
• 36:09
  so I think you get like a very valuable
• 36:10
  check on information value and um what's realistic,
• 36:15
  uh,
• 36:15
  that,
• 36:15
  that frankly didn't exist a couple of years ago.
• 36:18
  And,
• 36:18
  and I think you also get a home for all stories.
• 36:21
  Like I can't emphasize enough,
• 36:22
  um,
• 36:23
  you know,
• 36:23
  we are not that far away from an era in American politics where
• 36:26
  like people were seriously debating whether freedom
• 36:28
  of speech was like a worthwhile exercise
• 36:31
  and Um,
• 36:32
  you know,
• 36:32
  you can censor a story from the New York Post on X,
• 36:35
  you can censor it on Facebook,
• 36:36
  but like you can't censor an idea in a prediction market.
• 36:39
  And so I think having that sort of fail-safe,
• 36:42
  um,
• 36:42
  is,
• 36:43
  is
• 36:43
  quite valuable,
• 36:44
  really,
• 36:44
  really valuable.
• 36:45
  I know you have to go,
• 36:46
  uh,
• 36:46
  Alex.
• 36:47
  It's great talking to you and,
• 36:48
  and catching up.
• 36:48
  I'd love to talk to you more.
• 36:49
  Uh,
• 36:50
  Alex Keeney,
• 36:50
  founder,
• 36:51
  host,
• 36:51
  uh,
• 36:51
  and CEO
• 36:52
  of Eventual.
• 36:53
  Uh,
• 36:53
  it's gonna be a big night on Tuesday,
• 36:55
  Alex.
• 36:55
  Uh,
• 36:56
  I hope you have a profitable one.
• 36:57
  Thanks for joining us.
• 36:59
  Uh,
• 36:59
  thank you,
• 36:59
  Stu.
• 37:00
  Nice to be here.
• 37:15
  Our candidate countdown,
• 37:16
  only 5 days left.
• 37:17
  Let's do our candidate of the day,
• 37:19
  and uh there are only 5 days left until the midterms.
• 37:22
  We're doing these,
• 37:22
  uh,
• 37:23
  we try to do them every day.
• 37:24
  I'm a little behind,
• 37:24
  but,
• 37:24
  you know,
• 37:25
  all my picks are up at Stu's picks at predictableshow.com.
• 37:28
  So with 5 days left,
• 37:29
  our candidate of the day,
• 37:31
  I wanna test the bounds of the blue wave.
• 37:35
  Can it
• 37:36
  go this far or not?
• 37:38
  We go to Nebraska.
• 37:39
  Jim Pille,
• 37:40
  governor,
• 37:41
  uh,
• 37:41
  gubernatorial candidate,
• 37:42
  um,
• 37:43
  he is the one we're gonna talk about today.
• 37:45
  Is there any value in Jim Pille?
• 37:47
  You think,
• 37:47
  OK,
• 37:47
  a Republican in Nebraska probably gonna win,
• 37:49
  but wait a minute,
• 37:49
  isn't that,
• 37:49
  isn't that Senate race close?
• 37:51
  And that's why I think this one's interesting.
• 37:53
  There's a few of these that I've liked over time.
• 37:55
  Some of them have moved against me,
• 37:57
  honestly,
• 37:58
  um,
• 37:58
  but
• 37:59
  the split ticket thing here is tempting.
• 38:02
  Uh,
• 38:02
  this is what we have in the market right now.
• 38:04
  Nebraska
• 38:05
  Governor,
• 38:06
  um,
• 38:07
  Pille is at 82%,
• 38:09
  down a little bit
• 38:10
  from recent highs.
• 38:12
  82% Lynn Walls is at 18%.
• 38:15
  Now,
• 38:15
  just,
• 38:15
  this is,
• 38:16
  I wanna make sure you,
• 38:16
  as you're looking at this picture,
• 38:18
  you understand.
• 38:18
  Lynn Walls quite clearly,
• 38:21
  Tim Walls and drag.
• 38:22
  No,
• 38:22
  that's not true.
• 38:23
  Uh,
• 38:23
  but I will say,
• 38:24
  how,
• 38:24
  how can you possibly put another Walls as governor?
• 38:27
  I feel like all Walls should be just eliminated from our politics,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:31
  after this.
• 38:31
  They should never receive another vote.
• 38:33
  Uh,
• 38:33
  but what you see here is Pille
• 38:36
  favored,
• 38:36
  uh,
• 38:36
  6.7%
• 38:38
  is,
• 38:38
  uh,
• 38:38
  the margin forecast for this race
• 38:41
  on Calci,
• 38:42
  he is an 82% favorite.
• 38:43
  Now,
• 38:44
  again,
• 38:44
  it's a Nebraska
• 38:46
  Republican.
• 38:48
  Huh?
• 38:48
  82%.
• 38:49
  That's good value.
• 38:50
  I mean,
• 38:50
  18% in 5 days,
• 38:52
  not too bad,
• 38:52
  actually,
• 38:53
  it's a little bit higher than that,
• 38:54
  cause it would be 18 cents on your 82 cents investment.
• 38:57
  Um,
• 38:57
  the polling though,
• 38:58
  it does show this pretty close.
• 38:59
  What you'll see here in this slew of polls
• 39:01
  is I'll see if you can see the pattern here.
• 39:04
  You have pillon plus 1,
• 39:05
  pillar plus 2,
• 39:06
  pillon plus 6,
• 39:07
  walls plus 3,
• 39:07
  pillon plus 1.
• 39:09
  What do you see,
• 39:09
  uh,
• 39:10
  in the sponsor of that particular,
• 39:12
  uh,
• 39:12
  every one of those,
• 39:13
  uh,
• 39:14
  uh,
• 39:14
  races?
• 39:15
  Well,
• 39:15
  all of them are partisan polls,
• 39:17
  right?
• 39:18
  Democrats on almost all of them.
• 39:19
  The only one that is not a,
• 39:21
  uh,
• 39:21
  Democratic sponsored poll is a Republican sponsored poll that only had Pillin up 6.
• 39:25
  So this is not a blowout race.
• 39:27
  The one I would point you to though is the most recent
• 39:29
  from a legitimate pollster,
• 39:30
  Echelon.
• 39:31
  Uh,
• 39:31
  Echelon Insights has this as a 7 point race,
• 39:34
  Pillin leading by 7.
• 39:35
  Potential value there.
• 39:37
  The risk to that one
• 39:38
  is there's a close Senate race,
• 39:40
  and if you get a big showing for the Democrat
• 39:43
  proposing as an independent,
• 39:45
  Dan Osborne,
• 39:46
  then you may have a situation where
• 39:49
  there's a little,
• 39:49
  there's some coattails.
• 39:51
  So,
• 39:52
  you know,
• 39:53
  again,
• 39:53
  we're talking about the fringes of this wave.
• 39:54
  How far can it reach?
• 39:56
  Could it reach there?
• 39:57
  It's possible.
• 39:58
  Let me go one step,
• 39:59
  I think a little bit past that.
• 40:01
  Uh,
• 40:01
  our next candidate,
• 40:02
  I got two today for you.
• 40:03
  Uh,
• 40:03
  candidate today,
• 40:04
  uh,
• 40:05
  is going to be,
• 40:06
  with 5 days left,
• 40:07
  Candidate
• 40:08
  B
• 40:08
  of the day
• 40:09
  is gonna be Mike Maizey,
• 40:10
  a Republican from
• 40:12
  Oklahoma.
• 40:12
  We're,
• 40:13
  we're testing the fringes of this wave.
• 40:14
  Is it possible?
• 40:15
  Now,
• 40:16
  the thing about this race is there isn't
• 40:18
  the Senate situation that we have in Nebraska.
• 40:20
  There's not a coattail situation,
• 40:22
  uh,
• 40:23
  appearing there,
• 40:23
  but
• 40:24
  Oklahoma's had some issues here,
• 40:26
  certainly with,
• 40:27
  uh,
• 40:27
  you know,
• 40:27
  some cost stuff,
• 40:28
  the tariffs,
• 40:29
  a bunch of that stuff has hit Oklahoma relatively hard.
• 40:31
  I don't know where they are in the Republican freak out index.
• 40:33
  I should look that up.
• 40:34
  I,
• 40:34
  I did look this up the other day,
• 40:36
  um,
• 40:36
  but Oklahoma governors,
• 40:37
  uh,
• 40:38
  uh,
• 40:38
  who will win this race,
• 40:38
  here's the market on Calsy right now.
• 40:41
  Uh,
• 40:41
  we have Mike Maizey at 88%.
• 40:44
  So again,
• 40:44
  this is a little bit farther
• 40:46
  on the fringe.
• 40:46
  Like,
• 40:46
  think of this wave.
• 40:48
  I think of the,
• 40:48
  um,
• 40:49
  Deep Impact,
• 40:50
  I think it was.
• 40:51
  Which one of those,
• 40:52
  um,
• 40:52
  it was either Deep Impact or Armageddon.
• 40:54
  They were just releasing asteroid movies for a whole summer for some reason.
• 40:56
  I don't remember why.
• 40:57
  I think it was Deep Impact where they ran to this,
• 41:00
  maybe it was
• 41:01
  Armageddon.
• 41:01
  I don't know.
• 41:01
  They kind of ran inland as far as they could and the big wave after the,
• 41:05
  uh,
• 41:05
  the comet or the asteroid hit the water and it kind of came up,
• 41:08
  which
• 41:08
  it was a Deep Impact.
• 41:09
  Thank you,
• 41:09
  Adam.
• 41:10
  I should,
• 41:10
  I should have,
• 41:11
  poor Tea Leon,
• 41:12
  that's true.
• 41:13
  I will say this,
• 41:14
  um,
• 41:15
  first of all,
• 41:15
  Adam's pick yesterday on the,
• 41:16
  uh,
• 41:17
  on the movie thing was,
• 41:18
  has worked out very,
• 41:18
  very well for all of us.
• 41:19
  I hope you got in on that.
• 41:21
  Uh,
• 41:21
  secondly,
• 41:23
  of course,
• 41:23
  that's the one,
• 41:23
  that's the one detail he's told me in my ear today.
• 41:26
  Oh,
• 41:26
  it's Deep Impact,
• 41:27
  not Armageddon.
• 41:27
  OK,
• 41:28
  thank you,
• 41:28
  Adam.
• 41:29
  Thank you.
• 41:29
  And he doesn't really talk like that either.
• 41:31
  Um,
• 41:31
  OK,
• 41:31
  so Oklahoma governor,
• 41:33
  um,
• 41:33
  if you kind of think of how far you have
• 41:35
  to go inland to avoid the giant deep impact wave.
• 41:39
  Jim Pille is at one place,
• 41:41
  a little bit higher ground.
• 41:42
  A little bit further on is Mike Maizey,
• 41:45
  who,
• 41:45
  again,
• 41:46
  the polling,
• 41:46
  there's not
• 41:48
  any real polling in this race.
• 41:50
  All we have is Maisie up by 4
• 41:53
  from her opponent,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:55
  in,
• 41:55
  in a poll from something called work bench strategy,
• 41:58
  which I think
• 41:59
  makes,
• 42:00
  uh,
• 42:00
  you know,
• 42:01
  tools for your toolbox,
• 42:02
  workbench strategy.
• 42:04
  Um,
• 42:05
  They make drills,
• 42:06
  they make vices,
• 42:07
  they make clamps,
• 42:08
  and they poll Democratic audiences.
• 42:10
  So again,
• 42:11
  I don't know what to take from that.
• 42:12
  I,
• 42:12
  I don't see any reason why Maisy would lose in Oklahoma,
• 42:15
  a very,
• 42:16
  very red state,
• 42:17
  not in the middle of the national picture.
• 42:19
  But again,
• 42:20
  can this wave go all the way there?
• 42:23
  We will see.
• 42:24
  I,
• 42:24
  I have a position on both of those candidates,
• 42:26
  not huge.
• 42:27
  I,
• 42:27
  I'm not like massively confident in the,
• 42:29
  and the return isn't huge.
• 42:30
  You're talking 10,
• 42:31
  12%,
• 42:32
  20%
• 42:33
  in the case of Pillin,
• 42:34
  but I,
• 42:35
  I,
• 42:35
  you know,
• 42:35
  that is where I am on those,
• 42:37
  uh,
• 42:37
  two races.
• 42:38
  We will see if that plays out
• 42:39
  the right way later on.
• 42:40
  All right,
• 42:40
  gonna take a break.
• 42:41
  Back in a second.
• 42:51
  As I mentioned,
• 42:51
  I was on with Megyn Kelly earlier today trying to goad her into
• 42:54
  starting a Senate fantasy league team.
• 42:57
  She,
• 42:57
  I,
• 42:57
  she kind of seemed like she might do it.
• 42:59
  I already have her executive producer,
• 43:00
  Steve Krakauer.
• 43:01
  He's on the list.
• 43:01
  You can see him.
• 43:02
  It kind of says like VIP.
• 43:03
  You could kind of see,
• 43:04
  uh,
• 43:04
  some of the people who have joined.
• 43:06
  A lot of people are on there and they're like,
• 43:07
  I don't wanna admit,
• 43:08
  you know,
• 43:08
  what I picked.
• 43:09
  I don't want people calling me out.
• 43:10
  Ah,
• 43:11
  whatever.
• 43:11
  It's a fun contest.
• 43:13
  Go there,
• 43:13
  it's free.
• 43:14
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 43:15
  Do we have the list?
• 43:15
  Uh,
• 43:16
  this is the leaderboard.
• 43:16
  Right now.
• 43:17
  The first place right now
• 43:19
  is,
• 43:19
  uh,
• 43:20
  who,
• 43:20
  who do we have in first?
• 43:21
  Um,
• 43:22
  right now,
• 43:22
  it's Bring Back the Redskins,
• 43:24
  uh,
• 43:25
  who is in 1st.
• 43:26
  1st place wins $2500.
• 43:28
  You can fund your prediction market account,
• 43:29
  you can just take it home and do whatever you want with it.
• 43:32
  Blue Wave or something is in second place.
• 43:34
  The White Lodge was what,
• 43:35
  a Twin Peaks reference,
• 43:36
  I think.
• 43:37
  Um,
• 43:37
  totally Stu's coping team
• 43:39
  in fourth,
• 43:40
  and my husband is amazing,
• 43:41
  which is probably my wife's team,
• 43:42
  I would assume.
• 43:43
  Uh,
• 43:44
  in 5th place.
• 43:45
  Uh,
• 43:45
  you see,
• 43:45
  uh,
• 43:46
  uh,
• 43:46
  up to $100 up to $2500.
• 43:48
  We also have a special prize.
• 43:49
  Can we go to the bottom of this?
• 43:50
  A special prize for dead last place.
• 43:52
  We now have over 600 teams in this fantasy league.
• 43:55
  And in last place right now is the Crystal,
• 43:57
  Crystal Ballots.
• 43:58
  No shame here,
• 43:59
  by the way.
• 43:59
  No shame,
• 44:00
  Crystal Ballots.
• 44:00
  Good.
• 44:01
  By the way,
• 44:01
  you might win $100 if you finish in dead last.
• 44:04
  I do want to note,
• 44:05
  Dan Andros's team Weekend at Mitch's now in 3rd to last place.
• 44:10
  Above the survivors who is basically surviving
• 44:13
  by one place.
• 44:14
  Uh,
• 44:14
  so that's where we are.
• 44:14
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 44:16
  Uh,
• 44:16
  so much more,
• 44:16
  PredictableShow.com.
• 44:17
  Live stream tomorrow.
• 44:18
  All my picks are up there.
• 44:20
  Uh,
• 44:20
  new tools coming as well.
• 44:21
  Don't miss that.
• 44:22
  PredictableShow.com.
• 44:24
  Become a premium subscriber.
• 44:25
  You will not regret it.
• 44:26
  We'll see you later.