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NFL Week 9 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Norman, chief content officer of the Action Network,
0:18
Speaker 1: your place for sports, betting, news, information, analysis, picks, data,
0:25
Speaker 1: you name it. We got it in the award winning
0:28
Speaker 1: Action Network app. We also have all the experts, all
0:32
Speaker 1: of them, including my bff, my companion, Simon und Chad.
0:40
Speaker 1: How's it going, brother, dude. We got a lot to
0:43
Speaker 1: get to. It's been a crazy few days since Thursday.
0:49
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to unpack this. Colts lost to the
0:53
Speaker 1: Titans because we loved it last Tuesday. We love the coachs.
0:58
Speaker 1: Last Tuesday, when it was one on a half, we
1:00
Speaker 1: love the Cults. By Thursday, they were favored. It was
1:04
Speaker 1: three by the time the game kicked off Sunday on
1:08
Speaker 1: Convince Me, our show on ad Action Network HQ at
1:11
Speaker 1: eleven a m Eastern. You noted I asked you should
1:14
Speaker 1: we be middling this game right now? On the show
1:16
Speaker 1: You're like, You're like, dude, I got seven figures on
1:20
Speaker 1: this game. I can't middle it. At this point. We're
1:22
Speaker 1: gonna get to that. I want to unpack that because
1:25
Speaker 1: you've had that going on in your life since Thursday.
1:28
Speaker 1: I've had my kids fifteenth birthday Thursday night, got a
1:33
Speaker 1: late night call from a hospital in Philadelphia because my
1:38
Speaker 1: older kid decided to go free soloing at some rock
1:44
Speaker 1: climbing wall on campus at Drexel fell fractured as tibia.
1:50
Speaker 1: My wife had to go there Sunday. On the same
1:52
Speaker 1: day that she was featured, her work was featured in
1:55
Speaker 1: the New York Times. She's an architect. They did a
1:58
Speaker 1: story about a particular style of work that included some
2:01
Speaker 1: of the work that she does. And then on Monday
2:04
Speaker 1: last night, well, my wife is in Philly taking care
2:07
Speaker 1: of our our older kid. Me and my younger kid
2:11
Speaker 1: drove to Boston from our town in West Harder Home
2:14
Speaker 1: and West Harford. Went to the Bulls. Celtics had ridiculous seats.
2:18
Speaker 1: It was a birthday present. Ridiculous seats like second row
2:21
Speaker 1: behind the bulls bench to see the Bulls completely break
2:24
Speaker 1: the Celtics like they broke them like. Celtics were up
2:27
Speaker 1: by nineteen in the third quarter. They were up by
2:30
Speaker 1: fourteen going into the fourth. They lost by fourteen. Is
2:32
Speaker 1: the first time in the shock Clack era a team
2:34
Speaker 1: was ever up by fourteen going into the fourth and
2:36
Speaker 1: end up losing by fourteen. It was insane. And then
2:40
Speaker 1: driving home, get to listen on the radio to our
2:45
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chief survivor pick survive against the New York Giants.
2:50
Speaker 1: And then today I voted. I voted in the local elections.
2:53
Speaker 1: The ups and downs of the past four days had
2:55
Speaker 1: been insane. Simon, this is the first time in our friendship,
2:58
Speaker 1: I'm actually jealous of your life. Chat. That's how bad
3:00
Speaker 1: of a weekend I had. That's pretty you know, we
3:05
Speaker 1: gotta we had a role Carson Wentz. We got unpacking
3:09
Speaker 1: from the carpet that we metaphorically put him in and
3:11
Speaker 1: then buried in the backyard, and we got to talk
3:13
Speaker 1: about this a little bit. How do you manage it? Yeah?
3:15
Speaker 1: So um we joke all the time as a pro
3:19
Speaker 1: I I buried this Sunday night, and I completely realized
3:21
Speaker 1: this morning. I was like, well, I'm gonna have to
3:23
Speaker 1: talk about it on the show. So that's what I
3:25
Speaker 1: gotta do. Now. I knew Tuesdays gonna be one of
3:27
Speaker 1: my bigger bets. Uh bet pretty heavy on A one
3:30
Speaker 1: and a half, and when I want to make big
3:32
Speaker 1: bets from my group, so basically I'm too Oh, this year.
3:35
Speaker 1: So if I would have hit this one three, now
3:36
Speaker 1: I'm done for the season. That's the dream, Like I'm
3:39
Speaker 1: done by week nine because big bets are the worst,
3:41
Speaker 1: Like I guess the people. It sounds cool, but it's
3:44
Speaker 1: part of the job. I hate it. I hate doing it.
3:47
Speaker 1: It's sleepless. So I basically slept probably five hours from
3:50
Speaker 1: Thursday until mid Sunday. Like as soon as that game ended,
3:53
Speaker 1: I think I sent a tweet out and I just
3:55
Speaker 1: passed out for like three hours. So I was just
3:56
Speaker 1: like emotionally broken. But um, I still loved the number.
4:00
Speaker 1: But there's a sick part of me. When they scored
4:02
Speaker 1: that touchdown at the very end of the game, I'm like,
4:04
Speaker 1: just miss this extra point so I can just get
4:07
Speaker 1: my one and a half and get out of here,
4:08
Speaker 1: because at that point I was going to take just
4:10
Speaker 1: scraps because I felt so lucky to be in the position.
4:12
Speaker 1: But I could have read that game right throughout fourteen nothing.
4:16
Speaker 1: I gotta gets the interception. He's running the ball back
4:18
Speaker 1: onto the Tennessee's thirty. He pulls up to grab his
4:21
Speaker 1: leg because he hurt himself. He drops the ball. Tennessee
4:23
Speaker 1: recovers the fumble, throw a touchdown the next play and
4:26
Speaker 1: that's all she wrote. So it hurts. Um. I know
4:29
Speaker 1: people are complaining about the refs and O t like
4:31
Speaker 1: the no call. To me as a pro, I don't
4:34
Speaker 1: want to be in that position. That's like I can't
4:36
Speaker 1: even get mad where I just read that bad like
4:39
Speaker 1: I'm expecting to be the Eagles Detroit game where the
4:41
Speaker 1: Eagles win by forty and at zero sweat. That's how
4:44
Speaker 1: I felt going into this Colds game that they were
4:46
Speaker 1: just gonna roll read that wrong. So yeah, it's um,
4:50
Speaker 1: it hurts. Two and one down big bets, which means
4:52
Speaker 1: either can walk away or do one more. I'm probably
4:54
Speaker 1: gonna do one more, just because I hate ending the
4:57
Speaker 1: season on a losing note with those things. So it hurts.
5:00
Speaker 1: But you know it is Chad. It just doesn't bounce
5:03
Speaker 1: your way sometimes. So that's the most sickening part about.
5:05
Speaker 1: You can have a good read, but it don't matter.
5:08
Speaker 1: It don't matter. I feel terrible for you, and kudos
5:11
Speaker 1: to you for a talking about it advance and then
5:14
Speaker 1: be talking about it after, because it is so hard
5:17
Speaker 1: to relive those things, especially a game like that where
5:20
Speaker 1: even after everything you mentioned, you wouldn't lose ten times,
5:25
Speaker 1: you know, the Cults being up fourteen nothing, the Titans
5:27
Speaker 1: coming back, the interception. You just mentioned that kind of flukiness,
5:31
Speaker 1: the fact the Colts like still had a shot to
5:34
Speaker 1: win the game and over time if not for a
5:36
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz interception. Like as soon as he dropped after
5:40
Speaker 1: throw that ball, I was like, touchdown or pick touchdown.
5:48
Speaker 1: I hate Carson Wentz throwing. I just that immediately I
5:52
Speaker 1: thought to myself, this is ugly. Yeah, no, it's brutal.
5:57
Speaker 1: Oh my god. I feel between that of Vikings. Luckily
6:00
Speaker 1: I did buy back a little bit on Dallas. I
6:03
Speaker 1: think they got up to like four and a half four,
6:05
Speaker 1: but nowhere near enough to cover my Vikings position. So
6:08
Speaker 1: between the Vikings and the Colts, yeah, I got slapped around.
6:12
Speaker 1: Probably probably lost about one third in my bank roll
6:14
Speaker 1: this weekend. So that hurts when you you build it
6:16
Speaker 1: up so much during the season you just lose it
6:18
Speaker 1: like that in two games. Oh my god. Yeah, I
6:23
Speaker 1: mean it's all good, baby, still got nine weeks. That's
6:25
Speaker 1: how you have to look at it. But yeah, Sunday night,
6:28
Speaker 1: that that was a boozing night. Like I rarely drink
6:30
Speaker 1: and I was just drinking. How often has that happened
6:33
Speaker 1: to you in your career? Where in a single weekend
6:38
Speaker 1: you'll lose a third of your bankroll every year, every
6:43
Speaker 1: so this is not uncommon, Like you don't go through
6:45
Speaker 1: a season where it all works out gloriously and you're
6:48
Speaker 1: never in a position where you're fighting back or having
6:51
Speaker 1: sleepless nights. Oh I've had that. Like again, I think
6:54
Speaker 1: my greatest year everyon was the Eagle Super Bowl run.
6:57
Speaker 1: That was just because I killed it that season and
6:59
Speaker 1: then Eagles be my favorite team and there were home
7:01
Speaker 1: dogs throughout the playoffs. It was just it was like
7:05
Speaker 1: the perfect storm where that was by far my most
7:07
Speaker 1: profitable year. But it's different now where like these big
7:10
Speaker 1: round robin dogs, I think we're four out of eight
7:13
Speaker 1: or five out of eight weeks we've hit them. That's
7:15
Speaker 1: really keeping my season really afloat, like hitting these big dogs. Um,
7:19
Speaker 1: the money lines have just been cash and so it's
7:22
Speaker 1: it's not uncommon to lose that much in a weekend.
7:24
Speaker 1: But the way it happened is where it's like we
7:27
Speaker 1: got great open line value and then it closed that
7:30
Speaker 1: you know, it moved four or five points and we
7:32
Speaker 1: still got smoked, So that hurts because that's really rare
7:35
Speaker 1: for that to happen that way. You mentioned the money
7:37
Speaker 1: line round Robbins. We're gonna get to that for Thursday.
7:41
Speaker 1: We did have money line around Robbins this week. I
7:43
Speaker 1: think I know I had. I I did Jets, Panthers
7:47
Speaker 1: and Saints. Um, I also did Jags and so it
7:52
Speaker 1: was profitable in that respect. Exciting to have the Jets,
7:55
Speaker 1: Panthers and Saints. I'll win outright, not just cover. Um.
7:59
Speaker 1: We're gonna get to a full slate at some point
8:02
Speaker 1: Tuesday or Thursday, depending on how we feel about it.
8:05
Speaker 1: We'll do our big balls better the week. I imagine
8:07
Speaker 1: we'll do our son and says today, and we will.
8:10
Speaker 1: We will get to Scoot Roulette. You had the same
8:13
Speaker 1: side of the Colts, so you want so it hurts
8:15
Speaker 1: even more so now it's like it's just it's just
8:18
Speaker 1: salt in the wound. Well, I mean, thank god, we
8:22
Speaker 1: still have our claim to fame for three years and
8:24
Speaker 1: we yet to have an owned five week in the contest.
8:26
Speaker 1: So the Saints saved our assets, that's right. We also
8:29
Speaker 1: went one and four in the contest because of the
8:30
Speaker 1: vikings and because of the Colts. You know, we made
8:33
Speaker 1: some bad choices on the Bears and the Jags. Sunday
8:36
Speaker 1: you had a lot going on. I wanted to put
8:37
Speaker 1: the Eagles in. You were like, no, I like the Lions,
8:39
Speaker 1: and I should have been like, no, we we have
8:42
Speaker 1: If everyone likes the lines, that's when we swear right.
8:45
Speaker 1: Well you did say you did say it's a trap. Yeah, yeah,
8:48
Speaker 1: I just I just remember every pro I talked to
8:50
Speaker 1: it was like, yeah, Lions, today is the day, and
8:51
Speaker 1: it's like it can't be. The day is the day?
8:54
Speaker 1: Is the day? None of us seek coming. That's the
8:55
Speaker 1: lines in a nutshell. So I definitely felt weight too
8:58
Speaker 1: in love with the number. But the worst call it
9:00
Speaker 1: has to be the Jacks. That was our worst bet
9:02
Speaker 1: of the week. I mean, they were down twenty four
9:04
Speaker 1: nothing and a half and they're just a corpse. So
9:07
Speaker 1: that like, again, I'm sorry, I'm so sorry all the
9:09
Speaker 1: people out there keep hate on me putting the Jacks
9:11
Speaker 1: in the contest. I promise I won't do it again
9:14
Speaker 1: for at least the next two weeks. We we say
9:17
Speaker 1: that today and then by Sunday mornings and be like,
9:18
Speaker 1: how do we not doing the jazz I do love them.
9:20
Speaker 1: This week, I'm not doing that. I refuse. Alright, let's
9:23
Speaker 1: get to the full slate here. We're gonna start talking
9:25
Speaker 1: about these games. Um. Also at the end, we've got
9:28
Speaker 1: a couple of really funny reviews that I wanna read
9:31
Speaker 1: to people that producer Matt Mitchell sent to us because
9:34
Speaker 1: they are freaking hilarious. So I appreciate everybody's sending them
9:38
Speaker 1: in because they are really really funny. First game up,
9:42
Speaker 1: it's like, it's like the NFL purposely decided, you know what,
9:47
Speaker 1: we are going to just discussed Simon and make him
9:52
Speaker 1: talk about the Colts opening at about ten and a
9:56
Speaker 1: half against the New York Football Jets at home New
10:01
Speaker 1: York Jets at Indianapolis Colts. Jesus Christ. I mean, obviously
10:07
Speaker 1: we have to take the Colds here. The Jets. Jets.
10:10
Speaker 1: Mike White just had his career game. I think it's
10:13
Speaker 1: him and Steve Young are the only guys ever to
10:15
Speaker 1: be down by uh double digits in the final five
10:18
Speaker 1: minutes and come back and win in their first start ever.
10:20
Speaker 1: So Mike White, maybe this is the Drew Bledsoe Tom
10:25
Speaker 1: Brady scenario for the Jets. The Jets, uh Zach Wilson
10:28
Speaker 1: gets knocked out by the Patriots, their backup ends up
10:30
Speaker 1: being a Hall of Famer and Mike White or we
10:33
Speaker 1: just fade him because this is completely bs and this
10:35
Speaker 1: kid is not as good as you look in that game.
10:37
Speaker 1: So yeah, what are you gonna do. The public's gonna
10:40
Speaker 1: come in heavy on a ten a half here with
10:41
Speaker 1: the dog. They just saw them upset what they think
10:44
Speaker 1: is one of the better teams in football and the Bengals.
10:46
Speaker 1: I have to go the other way. How do I
10:48
Speaker 1: not take the Colts here? I had this line at
10:49
Speaker 1: minus twelve after the game, I moved it down to
10:52
Speaker 1: minus ten just because, again, Wentz looks so bad. But
10:56
Speaker 1: now seeing how much money is coming in on the Jets,
10:58
Speaker 1: it's it's a little scary. It's just okay, I get
11:01
Speaker 1: it that Mike White played great and like he did
11:04
Speaker 1: all these things. I think I feel like we talked
11:06
Speaker 1: about it last week, that Bengals was just a pure
11:08
Speaker 1: trap game. It was a third trade road game after
11:10
Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins of you know, the franchise
11:12
Speaker 1: history in the last couple of years. So it's hard
11:15
Speaker 1: to say, but I'm taking a double digit favorite here
11:17
Speaker 1: in the Colts, by the way, you you just said it,
11:21
Speaker 1: and it's it's a spot on. The Jets at plus
11:26
Speaker 1: ten and a half are getting sixty percent of the bets,
11:31
Speaker 1: the Colts at minus ten and a half eight percent
11:35
Speaker 1: of the money. It's rare. I don't know that I've
11:39
Speaker 1: ever seen this, because it took me a second looking
11:41
Speaker 1: at the Action Network Public betting page Action Network dot
11:44
Speaker 1: com uh slash public hyphen betting um, one of our
11:48
Speaker 1: most popular pages. To be honest, um, it's rare that
11:53
Speaker 1: I see a underdog getting a majority of the bets
11:57
Speaker 1: at double digit underdog getting majority of the bets, and
11:59
Speaker 1: then these coming in on the double digit favorite. That's
12:03
Speaker 1: all I need to know. You like it, all the
12:05
Speaker 1: wise guys like it. That's all I need to know.
12:08
Speaker 1: Let's put the Colts in the contest. Let's roll, let's
12:12
Speaker 1: get back on this horse. And I mean that with
12:15
Speaker 1: a pun intended. No, it's again, it's simple, like the
12:20
Speaker 1: pros love the number of the same reason I do.
12:22
Speaker 1: It's you have to throw what happened last week. You
12:24
Speaker 1: can't really dwell on it. So if you're just looking
12:26
Speaker 1: at a clean sheet here this week, Yeah, this number
12:29
Speaker 1: has moved too much, and that's why it's favorite towards
12:31
Speaker 1: the Colts. Oh my god, all right, Atlanta Falcons at
12:36
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints. It looks like Jameis Winston will not
12:40
Speaker 1: be the quarterback for the Saints. Trevor Simeon came on,
12:43
Speaker 1: played decent, made the two or three throws that you
12:47
Speaker 1: need to make at the end of the game to
12:49
Speaker 1: get the Saints the win a game we thought they
12:52
Speaker 1: would cover, a game that we thought they would win.
12:54
Speaker 1: We thought the number was crooked from the beginning. The
12:56
Speaker 1: Falcons are five and a half point dogs. Money and
13:01
Speaker 1: tickets coming in in the Saints right now. And this
13:04
Speaker 1: Falcons team looked terrible this past week. We loved the
13:08
Speaker 1: Panthers in that game. Calvin Ridley stepping away from football,
13:12
Speaker 1: my Matt Ryan to leave the league in touchdown prop
13:15
Speaker 1: is basically dead. Yeah, that looking good. I mean that
13:18
Speaker 1: team team has taken on water right now. I don't know,
13:22
Speaker 1: I don't know. I like, we don't know. The quarterback
13:26
Speaker 1: is like it could be Trevor Simeon, could be tysom Hill.
13:29
Speaker 1: We'll come back to it against me by Thursday. But
13:31
Speaker 1: just looking at the number, if it is Trevor Simeon
13:34
Speaker 1: fade fade, fade fade the Saints. When he came in,
13:37
Speaker 1: I was like, oh my god, we're going over five
13:40
Speaker 1: today because that was just like Jamie's was playing well.
13:43
Speaker 1: We we joked about we weren't betting on Jamis to
13:46
Speaker 1: win that game. We're betting on the team. We're like, no,
13:48
Speaker 1: we like the Saints team. We don't really care about
13:50
Speaker 1: the quarterback position. I do care about the quarterback position.
13:52
Speaker 1: When he went out, I was scared. I was like,
13:54
Speaker 1: oh my god, Trevor Simeon, I remember betting on that
13:56
Speaker 1: guy with Denver. He's terrible. He played well, But Matt
14:00
Speaker 1: Ryan coming off a loss on the road, it's a
14:04
Speaker 1: divisional game, that's a big spread for the Saints team
14:06
Speaker 1: that they could have a third string quarterback playing for them.
14:09
Speaker 1: So we'll wait and see. But as I said here
14:11
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, I would lean towards Atlanta. I mean, look,
14:15
Speaker 1: everything you just said about Atlanta coming off the road
14:19
Speaker 1: and looking ugly, it's clearly it's a way over inflated line,
14:25
Speaker 1: uh for the Saints with a third string quarterback. Um,
14:30
Speaker 1: I think as we speak, we are almost convincing ourselves
14:33
Speaker 1: that We're gonna have to take the Falcons and shout
14:36
Speaker 1: out to the five people that listen to our show.
14:37
Speaker 1: In the middle of the summer, we talked about Sean
14:39
Speaker 1: Payton Coach of the Year. I just thought it was
14:41
Speaker 1: a simple fact that if he could do it to
14:43
Speaker 1: shore that breeze, he would get a lot of hype.
14:45
Speaker 1: I think he's like number one or two now in
14:47
Speaker 1: that rate. I think it's Tomlin number one. I put
14:49
Speaker 1: Shaun Payne number two right now. Coach of the Year award.
14:52
Speaker 1: We had many tens of people listening to the show
14:55
Speaker 1: during the summer, just because just because now we have
15:00
Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of people listening to the show. Don't
15:03
Speaker 1: denigrate the loyalists. I love the loyalist. That's what I'm
15:06
Speaker 1: gonna shout out to. Shout out to the loyalists, all right,
15:11
Speaker 1: So right now I'm putting the Falcons plus five and
15:15
Speaker 1: a half or six versus the Saints. Making a note.
15:19
Speaker 1: I'm just writing over inflated divisional matchup, third string quarterback
15:27
Speaker 1: show me the Falcons. Bad decisions get made right here.
15:32
Speaker 1: This is where betting goes bad. Las Vegas Raiders at
15:38
Speaker 1: New York Giants. One of us, maybe two of us
15:43
Speaker 1: bet on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl before
15:45
Speaker 1: the season began. The Raiders, without John Gruden are five
15:49
Speaker 1: and two, leading the a f C West, ahead of
15:52
Speaker 1: the Chargers, ahead of the Chiefs, ahead of the Broncos.
15:56
Speaker 1: Five and two. They are on the road visiting the Giants,
16:00
Speaker 1: who just God, they were terrible last night. They're just like,
16:06
Speaker 1: there's no magic there, there's no philosophy, there's no strategy,
16:10
Speaker 1: there's no competence. The last couple of drives for Daniel Jones,
16:14
Speaker 1: he was terrible. Receivers were dropping balls. Kenny Albert painted
16:18
Speaker 1: a very vivid picture for me when I was listening
16:21
Speaker 1: to it on the radio. Raiders two and a half
16:23
Speaker 1: point favorites over the Giants in New Jersey. So it
16:27
Speaker 1: just came out and before we came on the air,
16:29
Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs, why receiver for their team got a really
16:32
Speaker 1: bad car accident at three forty in the morning last night.
16:35
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait on this game. We'll revisit on Thursday.
16:37
Speaker 1: I just think there's too much going on there. I
16:39
Speaker 1: like to Oakland going to this game because they had
16:41
Speaker 1: no distractions. They had a nice bye week, they had
16:43
Speaker 1: all these guys getting right now they're gonna go on
16:45
Speaker 1: the road. But we always say the Giants just aren't
16:47
Speaker 1: the same team at home. They covered for us last
16:48
Speaker 1: night against the Chiefs. Now they're going back home. We
16:51
Speaker 1: expected Oakland Las Vegas to roll here. We can bring
16:54
Speaker 1: it back on Thursday and we'll see how it shakes out. Listen,
16:57
Speaker 1: it's not a show if you don't know how to
16:59
Speaker 1: pronounce Taysom Hill's name, and you forget that the Raiders
17:03
Speaker 1: play in Las Vegas. That opened like clockwork. New England
17:08
Speaker 1: Patriots at Carolina Panthers. The Patriots, man, they're pretty decent
17:14
Speaker 1: sized favorite on the road. Here. Looks like there are
17:17
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites against the Carolina Panthers.
17:20
Speaker 1: Patriots visiting the Panthers. I mean what this week? Yeah,
17:26
Speaker 1: but I feel like what we were saying was true.
17:28
Speaker 1: Mac Jones really didn't do much. It was more about
17:30
Speaker 1: the defensive effort in a great run game. So we'll
17:33
Speaker 1: get to the Chargers. But does anyone look worse in
17:36
Speaker 1: their last two games than Herbert? He has been bad.
17:39
Speaker 1: He played terrible against the Ravens and played terrible against
17:41
Speaker 1: the Patriots. So I think it was more about him.
17:44
Speaker 1: But this, how do we not take the Panthers or
17:48
Speaker 1: I'm seeing them at plus four now as a home dog.
17:52
Speaker 1: At worst, they're gonna keep this game close. Like Carolina's defense,
17:55
Speaker 1: they really shut down Atlanta and we saw it. It's
17:58
Speaker 1: all about the edge rusher. So New England needs the
18:02
Speaker 1: run game to get going. It's hard to run on
18:05
Speaker 1: this Carolina team. This Carolina defense is great against the run.
18:08
Speaker 1: So I'm if it gets on the plus four, this
18:12
Speaker 1: is most likely maybe one of our five. Yeah, it's
18:15
Speaker 1: a it's hard to run against Carolina. Um. I think
18:19
Speaker 1: there's some over inflation because people love, love, love the Chargers,
18:24
Speaker 1: love the Chargers. I will give credit to Chris Raybun
18:27
Speaker 1: co hosted the Action Network podcast, one of the analysts
18:30
Speaker 1: on Convinced Me. He did try to get me to
18:32
Speaker 1: buy in on the Patriots on Sunday. You and I
18:36
Speaker 1: were so heavy on the Chargers. We love them so
18:38
Speaker 1: much from the beginning, and I firmly believe like Justin
18:41
Speaker 1: Herbert is a golden God, and like this was a
18:47
Speaker 1: team coming off the by that was going to be
18:49
Speaker 1: amazing and they'd find their mojo, not like the way
18:53
Speaker 1: they had it on third and fourth down. But I
18:54
Speaker 1: figured they would get closer to what you know, they
18:57
Speaker 1: wouldn't be what they were against the Ravens on third
18:59
Speaker 1: and fourth down. I loved this Chargers team, and the
19:03
Speaker 1: Patriots did everything Raybon said they were going to do.
19:06
Speaker 1: They controlled the line of scrimmage, they were better defensively,
19:09
Speaker 1: they made Herbert look bad. They ran the ball down
19:12
Speaker 1: a really bad defensive front of the Los Angeles Chargers.
19:19
Speaker 1: Pitch perfect analysis from Raybon. Kudos to Raybon. Fuck, we
19:25
Speaker 1: sucked that one. We sucked on that one. Hated that one.
19:28
Speaker 1: But I think you're right about the Panthers. It's McCaffrey
19:33
Speaker 1: back yet, No, I think it's the last week. Does
19:37
Speaker 1: this guy even play football anymore? I mean, I think
19:40
Speaker 1: he tried coming back too soon. That was his issue.
19:42
Speaker 1: He came back too soon. This had to put him
19:43
Speaker 1: on three week I r I mean, that's getting kind
19:46
Speaker 1: of silly at this point. He's just in commercials at
19:49
Speaker 1: this point. Why I even't risk it like you're I
19:51
Speaker 1: feel like Carolina's seasons, not that it's over, but just
19:55
Speaker 1: looking at their division, are they really gonna overtake the
19:57
Speaker 1: Saints or to overtake Sampa it's it's it's a rough
20:01
Speaker 1: road ahead of them for this next stretch. So that
20:03
Speaker 1: was huge for them to get that win last week.
20:04
Speaker 1: But they got they got a rough road ahead of
20:06
Speaker 1: So now we got to talk about Minnesota Vikings at
20:10
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens. Ravens are six point dogs in Baltimore. This
20:16
Speaker 1: is where it gets tricky. It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods
20:20
Speaker 1: will not save you. I know that we're probably supposed
20:24
Speaker 1: to bet the Vikings, and yet I know Mike Zimmer
20:30
Speaker 1: is supposed to be a guy who coaches his team up.
20:32
Speaker 1: I know this defense is supposed to be good. But
20:35
Speaker 1: I did just watch them lose the Cooper rush, and
20:37
Speaker 1: I did just watch Kirk Cousins not be able to
20:39
Speaker 1: connect with any of his multi talented players. And I
20:43
Speaker 1: saw Dalvin Cook run for eight yards in a game
20:46
Speaker 1: he should have run for a hundred. Yeah, everything you
20:49
Speaker 1: just said's true. I guess we can pass on it.
20:51
Speaker 1: I leaned towards the Vikings, but I think it's a
20:53
Speaker 1: good number. I had it at five. What is a
20:55
Speaker 1: five and a half? Now that gets up to six.
20:57
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to take it for this Minnesota team.
21:00
Speaker 1: Don't think Minnesota is as bad as we all think
21:01
Speaker 1: they are, but it kind of brought you back to reality.
21:04
Speaker 1: Every time you've been on Kirk, you really never know
21:06
Speaker 1: what you're gonna get, and that's the issue with Kirk Cousins.
21:08
Speaker 1: It is at six minus one fifteen at a non
21:12
Speaker 1: FanDuel sports book, so I would take that. I don't
21:16
Speaker 1: think it'll last because the game opened at seven. It's
21:18
Speaker 1: been beat down. I bet somebody at that book put
21:20
Speaker 1: in a decent amount of money and it moved and
21:24
Speaker 1: it'll come back down. Someone put money on the Ravens.
21:26
Speaker 1: I bet if it keeps coming down, we might end
21:29
Speaker 1: up on the Ravens. Like if it gets below five,
21:31
Speaker 1: I might have to take that. Look. That's ultimately why
21:34
Speaker 1: we love the Chargers is last week against the Patriots,
21:36
Speaker 1: the number kept coming down down, down, went from I
21:39
Speaker 1: think five and a half to four at four. How
21:41
Speaker 1: am I not liking? Justin Herbert and the Chargers, Like, again,
21:45
Speaker 1: don't beat yourself off? Living there up by one point,
21:48
Speaker 1: he threw a pick six. That's game. Don't don't don't
21:50
Speaker 1: don't sweat it too hard. I mean, it's just Herbert Man.
21:54
Speaker 1: That was one of those bets. We bet on Herbert
21:55
Speaker 1: and he completely let us down in that game. So
21:58
Speaker 1: what can you do? You know what? I like to
22:00
Speaker 1: be disappointed, nothing, Nothing upsets me more than a lack
22:04
Speaker 1: of professionalism. And I feel like the Charges exhibited a
22:07
Speaker 1: lack of professionalism on Sunday. Honestly they did, though, like
22:10
Speaker 1: her living at a third and nine. Just horrible game
22:13
Speaker 1: plan by them. Everybody who works with me know that
22:16
Speaker 1: I care about nothing more than professionalism. All right, Cleveland
22:21
Speaker 1: Browns at Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are three point dogs
22:27
Speaker 1: two and a half depending on there's a there's a
22:29
Speaker 1: couple of discrepancies in the number, but let's say it's three.
22:32
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham Jr's dad is putting out highlights of Odell
22:37
Speaker 1: Beckham not getting the ball from Baker Mayfield. Lebron James
22:42
Speaker 1: is tagging Odell Beckham with the hashtag free Odell. Feels
22:46
Speaker 1: like something's a miss yere. I don't know, you know,
22:50
Speaker 1: reading into it as a as a manager, I feel
22:53
Speaker 1: like I can sense these kinds of problems as a
22:56
Speaker 1: high banking executive. It's bad. And I got his dad
23:00
Speaker 1: really made a whole highlight clip of all the time
23:01
Speaker 1: she was open and Baker was missing him on passes.
23:04
Speaker 1: It is bad over there. So same we we talked
23:08
Speaker 1: about last week. While we like Pittsburgh, somebo ain't read
23:11
Speaker 1: with Baker. I said that if it was case Keenum,
23:13
Speaker 1: I might have had Paul's taking Pittsburgh, But as soon
23:15
Speaker 1: as we got announcement that it was Baker, I loved it.
23:18
Speaker 1: For some reason that professionals were on the other side.
23:20
Speaker 1: That line ended up closing at six and a lot
23:22
Speaker 1: of books off shore, so I don't know what they
23:25
Speaker 1: were seeing that line was running um coming back this
23:28
Speaker 1: week Browns, I'm usually in a position where I'm trying
23:31
Speaker 1: to buy a low on this team, but with the
23:33
Speaker 1: injuries to Baker, with what's going on there, Dell, how
23:36
Speaker 1: do you not take since a bad loss, especially especially
23:40
Speaker 1: look less than a field goal as a home favorite
23:44
Speaker 1: in a division game in which they just had a
23:47
Speaker 1: horrible loss. Uh, and they need this game, like I
23:52
Speaker 1: would think, let's think about from the lines at perspective one,
23:56
Speaker 1: the Bengals probably still feel this Jets game a little
24:02
Speaker 1: bit of a fluke. You know, there were sandwiched between
24:05
Speaker 1: a huge win and then playing against in state rival.
24:08
Speaker 1: They did their best, a couple of bad breaks. A
24:11
Speaker 1: Jets team that is playing for their lungs every single week,
24:15
Speaker 1: but they probably still feel like they're in the upward trajectory.
24:18
Speaker 1: The Browns feel like a fucking mess. And that's why
24:22
Speaker 1: this is my Simon says game of the Week. Simon, Sis,
24:34
Speaker 1: you want to get that to an app before the
24:36
Speaker 1: professionals come in real heavy on it. Bengals are up
24:39
Speaker 1: eleven points with five minutes to go, so Mike White
24:42
Speaker 1: gets a touchdown burrow through a pick like the literally
24:45
Speaker 1: the next snap on offense, they get another touchdown. The referees. Again,
24:49
Speaker 1: I don't want to put too much on the referees.
24:51
Speaker 1: They had this horrible helmet the helmet call um at
24:54
Speaker 1: the end of the game that pretty much gave us Yeah,
24:56
Speaker 1: gave the first down to the Jets. Again, the Bengals.
25:00
Speaker 1: They deserved that loss. The Jets like Mike White through
25:02
Speaker 1: for four hundred yards, like the guy played pretty much
25:05
Speaker 1: a had no mistakes in the second half, Like first
25:08
Speaker 1: half through two picks. Second half, he was out of
25:10
Speaker 1: this world. Everyone's so down on Since's defense. Now, the
25:13
Speaker 1: same defense that really dominated and shutdown arguably the best
25:16
Speaker 1: athlete in football and Lamar the week before. So let's
25:19
Speaker 1: buy Alow on the on the banglest here getting him
25:21
Speaker 1: at home under a field goal. Take this number if
25:24
Speaker 1: you can right now, Hey, listen, you and I both
25:27
Speaker 1: loved the Steelers last week. I loved the Steelers last week.
25:30
Speaker 1: We talked about it, and I was watching the Steelers
25:33
Speaker 1: and watching that game unfold, and I thought to myself,
25:36
Speaker 1: how do we not put the Steelers in the contest.
25:39
Speaker 1: I don't know. I I said it to you. I said,
25:41
Speaker 1: Tomlins is a dog, and I don't know. We just
25:44
Speaker 1: kept it moving. That's again, it's all of it to
25:47
Speaker 1: my full. On Sunday morning, we have too much ship
25:48
Speaker 1: going on where we're just like flying through the four
25:51
Speaker 1: games before we just go make our own bets. So
25:53
Speaker 1: it's tough. Also, yeah, Sunday morning, like my head wasn't
25:56
Speaker 1: even in it, like your own stuff going on, you know,
26:00
Speaker 1: like all my kid's leg is broken. What are we
26:03
Speaker 1: doing with the doctors? How are we managing It's our
26:05
Speaker 1: first first parental crisis from long distance. The Bills who
26:12
Speaker 1: covered against the Miami Dolphins, who were the one team
26:14
Speaker 1: that we felt pretty good about as the double digit
26:17
Speaker 1: favorites covering the Bills. Make me your feel something, throw
26:24
Speaker 1: your hand something, throw your hand back from now the Bills.
26:28
Speaker 1: I'm making it happen. Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars. They're
26:36
Speaker 1: double digit favorites again. Nobody wants a piece of this
26:38
Speaker 1: Jacksonville team. I know you're gonna say, let's bet this
26:41
Speaker 1: Jacksonville team, and it's it makes all the sense in
26:44
Speaker 1: the world, and this will be like the weekend we
26:47
Speaker 1: don't do it, and of course it makes sense to
26:49
Speaker 1: do it, and we miss this opportunity. You can do it.
26:52
Speaker 1: I would not like to do it. I get it.
26:54
Speaker 1: It's the same thing where we last week while I
26:56
Speaker 1: was all over the Jets, They're gonna get no bets,
26:58
Speaker 1: no one's gonna pick their money line. Me and ten
27:01
Speaker 1: other people are gonna taking the Jets money line and
27:03
Speaker 1: it hit so the same thing this week. I hate it.
27:06
Speaker 1: I hate betting this Jack's team. It's not fun, but
27:09
Speaker 1: this is crazy fourteen and a half. I have to
27:11
Speaker 1: do it. I have to. I don't even want to,
27:14
Speaker 1: but I have to. So what evidence? This is not
27:17
Speaker 1: just faith, This is not standing an egg on its
27:21
Speaker 1: end because you think at the equinox it's gonna stand
27:26
Speaker 1: there because you have faith. West Wing fans rejoice like
27:30
Speaker 1: it's a tremendously bad team against a tremendously good team.
27:35
Speaker 1: They are. But at the same time, I had an
27:36
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. Now it's only up to fourteen
27:38
Speaker 1: and a half. It's is the Josh Allen really played
27:41
Speaker 1: that well against Miami? Not really. He he had three
27:45
Speaker 1: points for a half and then they kind of slowly
27:47
Speaker 1: figured it out in the second half. But I know
27:50
Speaker 1: what you're saying, it's just this Jacks team. The worst
27:52
Speaker 1: part by Betty Lemon is you're relying on Trevor Lawrence,
27:55
Speaker 1: who we talked coming to the season. I wasn't really
27:57
Speaker 1: buying the hype, and we talked coaching matters so much
28:00
Speaker 1: in this league. If he's not getting good coaching, he's
28:02
Speaker 1: just talking to produce. So that's why I'm not gonna
28:04
Speaker 1: make you take the bet he he just isn't looking
28:06
Speaker 1: right and he's not playing well. But a number this big,
28:10
Speaker 1: it's it's hard for me to pass on it as
28:12
Speaker 1: a home team like this is the same reason you
28:15
Speaker 1: would have said it's stupid about the Texans last week.
28:17
Speaker 1: Once I got the seventeen I had to do it.
28:19
Speaker 1: It hit a point where it goes, all right, I
28:21
Speaker 1: gotta do it. Did I get Lucky's hell in the
28:23
Speaker 1: back door? Yeah, of course I did. But like literally,
28:27
Speaker 1: that's why you bet the number. You try not to
28:28
Speaker 1: really think about it where it goes. You're just playing
28:30
Speaker 1: the number. These are all professionals in the highest competition level.
28:35
Speaker 1: You have to think they figure some stuff out. But
28:37
Speaker 1: zero chances of one of our five. Because I'm right
28:39
Speaker 1: there with you, I'm disgusted by the Jacks. We did
28:42
Speaker 1: run a poll and convinced me the other day that
28:45
Speaker 1: asked of the four double digit underdogs going into the weekend,
28:50
Speaker 1: the Giants, the Jags, the Texans, and Miami, which one
28:55
Speaker 1: was most likely to cover. The Jets won by a landslide,
28:58
Speaker 1: and they in facted that. But good for the good
29:01
Speaker 1: for the Texans, good for the Jets. It turns out
29:03
Speaker 1: only one actually couldn't cover, and it was the home
29:05
Speaker 1: team that everyone thought. Uh, it was the away team
29:08
Speaker 1: that everyone thought wouldn't be able to cover. So no,
29:10
Speaker 1: that's true. And the craziest part is, I think we're
29:13
Speaker 1: down a seven hundred now. Our survivor contest brother, No way, Yeah,
29:16
Speaker 1: so if it ended right now, I think we each
29:18
Speaker 1: get like two grand, so we split a thousand each.
29:21
Speaker 1: Shut up, I mean, yeah, it's down. It's down to seven.
29:24
Speaker 1: Holy snikey. Yes, we got nine weeks to go, brother,
29:28
Speaker 1: I mean, and we've and we'll go through it on Thursday.
29:30
Speaker 1: Teams we've used. You'll be so happy seeing the teams
29:32
Speaker 1: we've used, because you would never want to use them
29:34
Speaker 1: ever again. Like Minnesota Vikings. We would never want to
29:37
Speaker 1: use them and survive ever again. So right, what we've
29:39
Speaker 1: used the Vikings. Now, we've used the Chiefs, We've used
29:43
Speaker 1: the Colts. Yeah, a bunch of teams. You yeah, Oh
29:46
Speaker 1: my god, I'm feeling feeling good. I'm so happy to
29:50
Speaker 1: her done with the Chiefs. That was awful. That was
29:52
Speaker 1: just dreadful. I'm not gonna lie. I definitely was checking
29:55
Speaker 1: the Action app for these score updates while I was
29:58
Speaker 1: also watching the Bulls break the Celtics. Will and now
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31:58
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins.
32:05
Speaker 1: Texans six and a half point dogs on the road.
32:09
Speaker 1: This feels high. Is our boy back? That's the question here?
32:12
Speaker 1: Who's playing quarterback for Houston? So sitting here, today's Garrod Taylor.
32:17
Speaker 1: I'll take him. If it's not, I'll probably just pass
32:20
Speaker 1: in this game. But no real opinion until I know
32:23
Speaker 1: who the quarterback is. I'm not rolling the dice skin
32:25
Speaker 1: with Houston. That was the worst sweat ever. They were
32:28
Speaker 1: down thirty eight nothing, and I was like, why do
32:30
Speaker 1: I keep betting on this kid, Davis Mills? And you know,
32:34
Speaker 1: it took literally a million things at work right for
32:36
Speaker 1: them to get that back door. So I don't know
32:38
Speaker 1: if I'm gonna press my luck twice with this kid,
32:40
Speaker 1: Davis Mills. Yeah, I'm We're walking away from this game.
32:43
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys. Broncos without Von Miller now
32:49
Speaker 1: nine and a half point underdogs on the road against
32:52
Speaker 1: the Cowboys who you love even though they broke our
32:55
Speaker 1: heart for a week, but you have loved them all
32:58
Speaker 1: season long, bought them big to win the Super Bowl
33:01
Speaker 1: very early in the year after they started showing supromise.
33:04
Speaker 1: I expect Dak Prescott will be playing. This was precautionary
33:07
Speaker 1: this past week. The Broncos are trash. Yeah, they're so bad.
33:12
Speaker 1: So if this is Dak, I'll I'm hoping I'll get
33:15
Speaker 1: back down under ten because it was eight and a
33:17
Speaker 1: half now it's up to ten. I would like seeing
33:20
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I'm seeing nine and have a
33:21
Speaker 1: fandel right now, so I'd still like that number. Um,
33:24
Speaker 1: but it's we keep talking about it, like there's seven
33:29
Speaker 1: oh now against the spread? This When is I gonna
33:33
Speaker 1: go and flip the other way? This is insane? So
33:36
Speaker 1: I'm terrified to fade Dallas. I might jump on the
33:38
Speaker 1: bandwagon for one more week with Dallas, but eventual I'm
33:42
Speaker 1: gonna start fading them because these lines are just can
33:43
Speaker 1: keep getting inflated. But this feels right. Denver is bad.
33:46
Speaker 1: Teddy he put horrible against Washington was still able to
33:49
Speaker 1: get the win. Somehow, that's just because how bad Washington is.
33:52
Speaker 1: So I'm happy to take his number under ten. Evan Abrahams,
33:56
Speaker 1: who uh it was a long time research at ESPN,
34:01
Speaker 1: has joined me at Action when we launched the company.
34:05
Speaker 1: Um a betting savant in every way does eight million
34:10
Speaker 1: different things for us. Uh. Most recently was running our
34:13
Speaker 1: social team. UM. He came up with a really cool
34:17
Speaker 1: statu Unbeaten against the spread teams since nineteen ninety The
34:23
Speaker 1: Cowboys are seven or no, so they can be eight
34:26
Speaker 1: and no this this week since n two thousand seven,
34:30
Speaker 1: New England Patriots eight no. One, Cowboys seven or eighteen,
34:35
Speaker 1: Chiefs seven or no, Tennessee seven or no. That's it, folks,
34:41
Speaker 1: since that's the list three, seven or No. A T
34:44
Speaker 1: S teams one eight No A T S team. Can
34:46
Speaker 1: the Cowboys join him this week? Yeah? I mean the
34:49
Speaker 1: Cowboys got me the jump. I think um three and
34:52
Speaker 1: four on their games this year. Like I bet with him,
34:55
Speaker 1: I faded him four times. I've lost obviously four times. Man,
35:00
Speaker 1: betting is hard, is it really is? It's so hard.
35:05
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles. The Chargers. They're not
35:10
Speaker 1: one point favorites on the road at the Eagles, and
35:14
Speaker 1: this to me screams take the Chargers, like bylow cell high.
35:18
Speaker 1: Eagles just had a big win, even if it was
35:20
Speaker 1: against the Lions, but it was a game on the
35:22
Speaker 1: road that people, you know, weren't sure because they hadn't
35:25
Speaker 1: been playing well. Chargers now lost two in a row,
35:28
Speaker 1: including on the other side of a bye to a
35:30
Speaker 1: Patriots team that nobody was really behind the quarterback. But
35:33
Speaker 1: they're starting to see how good they are in the trenches.
35:36
Speaker 1: I know. Yeah, first glance, I wanted to take the
35:39
Speaker 1: Eagles just because it looked like they found their run
35:41
Speaker 1: game last week and this Chargers team, man, can they
35:45
Speaker 1: give up the run? I thought that was something that
35:47
Speaker 1: may be fixed during the bye week, they haven't. They
35:50
Speaker 1: still have huge gaping holes up the middle. It's it's bad.
35:54
Speaker 1: So no real opinion on on Tuesday. As we said here,
35:57
Speaker 1: um I like the Eagles at plus two and a half.
36:00
Speaker 1: Now it's come down and don't like it as much.
36:02
Speaker 1: But man, it's bad right now. The Chargers like them
36:05
Speaker 1: the chiefs of that. These two teams that are just
36:07
Speaker 1: reeling right now, like that just seems like things are
36:10
Speaker 1: just going wrong with them. Hard to go against an
36:12
Speaker 1: Eagles team that they're one. They have one of the
36:14
Speaker 1: best run blocking schemes in football. They just don't run
36:16
Speaker 1: the ball because Iran is an idiot. But it's looked
36:18
Speaker 1: like he figured it out last week. If you just
36:20
Speaker 1: run the ball, it can work for this team. Um
36:23
Speaker 1: so well, we'll check this another We'll check back in
36:26
Speaker 1: on Thursday. But right now leading towards the Eagles. Nick
36:29
Speaker 1: Sirianni seems to be a terrible coach. Also likes to
36:35
Speaker 1: use as press conferences to sort of wade into philosophical discourse.
36:41
Speaker 1: Wouldn't this make you question your ownership? Like how how
36:44
Speaker 1: did he get through the interview room? Like this guy
36:46
Speaker 1: sits down and talk to you for ten minutes. Wouldn't
36:48
Speaker 1: you just be like, what is wrong with this guy?
36:50
Speaker 1: But what's the difference between him and Dan Campbell? Dan
36:53
Speaker 1: Campbell I find to be. At first I thought this
36:56
Speaker 1: guy's a kN ahead. I have grown to love him, like,
37:00
Speaker 1: even if he's a knucklehead, he's he seems to be
37:03
Speaker 1: so earnest and just relatable and I want to hang
37:08
Speaker 1: out with the guy. Siriannie, I don't think so. Yeah,
37:11
Speaker 1: I mean, you should love Dan Campbell. He passed on
37:13
Speaker 1: Justin Fields to take an offensive alignment because he believed
37:16
Speaker 1: that much in golf. So he's doing you a favor
37:18
Speaker 1: as a barrass fan. It's true, good for him. Green
37:22
Speaker 1: Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Packers one point dogs.
37:28
Speaker 1: Something feels trappy here. Why are they? Why are they
37:31
Speaker 1: begging me to take the Packers here? I hate it.
37:34
Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs of course at home, but I
37:37
Speaker 1: hate this game. Um, give me some Forget about what
37:41
Speaker 1: you're feeling is a better forget about your instincts. Give
37:46
Speaker 1: me numerical reasons, give me analytical reasons, give me algorithmic,
37:51
Speaker 1: statistical power rated reasons. I can, but it's all gonna
37:56
Speaker 1: be bullshit. This game is completely It's hard to really
37:59
Speaker 1: give no members on these teams where the Chiefs are
38:02
Speaker 1: just broken right now, their offensive line is broken. Travis
38:06
Speaker 1: Kelsey looks like a mid tier below average tight end.
38:10
Speaker 1: This is more of I'm betting on what I've seen
38:14
Speaker 1: of the past of the Chiefs. So if you're a
38:16
Speaker 1: smart better you take the Packers with the public here,
38:19
Speaker 1: But as a professional, I have to think to myself, Okay,
38:22
Speaker 1: we have one team that won in a primetime game
38:24
Speaker 1: looked incredible in the Packers. They won without any of
38:27
Speaker 1: their pieces against an undefeated team, playing against a team
38:31
Speaker 1: that barely scraped by beating the Giants at home. I
38:35
Speaker 1: have to buy low on the Chief's team. It's um.
38:38
Speaker 1: It's at the point now where I feel like the
38:39
Speaker 1: line is giving you the value it deserves. If this
38:41
Speaker 1: was plus three, yeah, Packers is a good bet. It's
38:45
Speaker 1: shifting towards a pick. Hard to pass on the Chief's
38:49
Speaker 1: team at a pick at home. I understand everyone's reasons
38:52
Speaker 1: for taking this Packers team, but I can't do it yet.
38:56
Speaker 1: I'm still I'm still a believer in my homes. I'm
38:58
Speaker 1: not gonna let just a couple of bad weeks for
39:00
Speaker 1: him to really throw me off the train. I think
39:02
Speaker 1: he's once in generation talent. This old line is just
39:06
Speaker 1: the main issue right now. Um, they have five new
39:09
Speaker 1: starters on this line this season. Coming in, we thought
39:12
Speaker 1: that was gonna be a problem for them to start
39:14
Speaker 1: the year and they'd get bears. The years gone on,
39:16
Speaker 1: they haven't. They have not improved that old line. So
39:19
Speaker 1: I can't fall people here taking the Packers, But as
39:21
Speaker 1: a professional, I will be on the Chiefs at home
39:24
Speaker 1: at a pick. The offensive line is dreadful. Travis Kelsey
39:27
Speaker 1: was driving passes that he would normally catch, and he's
39:30
Speaker 1: running dumb routes like he's running the wrong way. They
39:33
Speaker 1: have no running backs. Yeah, no, it's reason. People will
39:39
Speaker 1: have a million reasons to take the Packers here. But
39:42
Speaker 1: I have to take the Chiefs out of pick at
39:44
Speaker 1: home like it's I can't not do it. You're giving
39:47
Speaker 1: me a million reasons to take the Chiefs, a million
39:50
Speaker 1: reasons to take the Chiefs. Who's that? I don't know.
39:54
Speaker 1: It's terrible though. Lady Gaga not a guy, guy guy,
39:58
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, she's the best Arizona Cardinals at San
40:02
Speaker 1: Francisco forty niners. I'm off this Niners team. You are okay, No,
40:07
Speaker 1: I'm not, thank you. I was gonna say, this guy
40:09
Speaker 1: be the fox all right, fox hole. Let's get into
40:12
Speaker 1: that fox will, Betty, Let's climb down into the fox hole.
40:20
Speaker 1: Forty Niners are Arizona's Daddy's. We should bring hi, Matt Mitchell,
40:24
Speaker 1: give us our Kingsbury update. Isn't this the time of
40:27
Speaker 1: here we start fading them? I feel like it's it's
40:29
Speaker 1: that point you about the Lords of Loser. He's all
40:35
Speaker 1: lows about. He still keeps on dry. Thank you, Simon.
40:45
Speaker 1: I would love to jump in and talk some ship
40:47
Speaker 1: about Cliff Kingsbury. As any true gambler knows, now is
40:51
Speaker 1: the perfect time to fade Cliff. He has failed at
40:55
Speaker 1: the end of every season he's ever been ahead coach anywhere,
40:58
Speaker 1: with no exception. He took over as the head coach
41:01
Speaker 1: of Texas Tech in with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback,
41:06
Speaker 1: and lost four of his last five and then four
41:09
Speaker 1: of his last six the next season. He then lost
41:12
Speaker 1: six of his last eight in sixteen and twenty seventeen.
41:15
Speaker 1: His final year, he lost all five of his last
41:18
Speaker 1: five and then failed up to the Arizona Cardinals, where
41:22
Speaker 1: he lost seven of his last nine his first year
41:25
Speaker 1: and six of his last nine last year, including one
41:28
Speaker 1: of those wins by a fucking hail Mary. So everybody knows.
41:32
Speaker 1: Now is the perfect time to start selling high on
41:35
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals before they continue their inevitable late season
41:40
Speaker 1: decline under Cliff Back to you, let's go, Chad, It's
41:46
Speaker 1: uh the perfect storm. It's November, and the Cardinals just
41:49
Speaker 1: don't beat the forty Niners. This division is just like that,
41:53
Speaker 1: Like the Rams always beat the Seahawks, but they always
41:55
Speaker 1: lose to the Niners vice versa. It's just I feel
41:58
Speaker 1: like all these teams are what they are and they
41:59
Speaker 1: play each other. So you're looking for a trap line
42:02
Speaker 1: this week, this one really pops out, right. I feel
42:04
Speaker 1: like everyone's gonna come in heavy on a team in
42:07
Speaker 1: Arizona that's coming off their first loss of the season
42:09
Speaker 1: under a field goal on the road. Trap. All right,
42:13
Speaker 1: all right, I can't argue with it. I mean, normally
42:16
Speaker 1: I am all in the Shanahan badwagon, loving him as
42:20
Speaker 1: a coach, loving him with no matter what the roster
42:22
Speaker 1: is in any scenario. I feel like he hasn't performed
42:25
Speaker 1: as well at home I'm wondering if this is the
42:29
Speaker 1: year that even the Cardinals can defy the King the
42:32
Speaker 1: Kiff the Cliff. King's very narrative because they're a really
42:36
Speaker 1: good team. But maybe I'm wrong, Maybe everything rings true.
42:39
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm seeing this through rose colored glasses as I
42:42
Speaker 1: live my life. Let's go Niners. Tennessee Titans at Los
42:47
Speaker 1: Angeles rams Port Titans. Port Titans on the road of
42:51
Speaker 1: the rams Port Titans seven and a half point dogs
42:55
Speaker 1: without Derrick Henry replacing him with Adrian Peterson. That's a bummer.
43:01
Speaker 1: What do we do here? I like first glance, I
43:03
Speaker 1: really wanted to take the Titans. The Rams don't know
43:07
Speaker 1: how to close teams out. Matthew Stafford is still inconsistent.
43:11
Speaker 1: Von Miller does nothing for me. I The fact that
43:15
Speaker 1: you have two second round picks for von Miller is
43:17
Speaker 1: a joke to me. Like, imagine giving up that kind
43:20
Speaker 1: of equity for J. J. Watt, who we all knew
43:22
Speaker 1: was gonna get hurt after five weeks. That's how I
43:24
Speaker 1: feel about bon Miller not consistent, doesn't get Saxon where
43:28
Speaker 1: he does still get QB pressures, but he doesn't get home.
43:31
Speaker 1: I don't know. I guess we can. We can keep
43:33
Speaker 1: it moving, but if it's seven and a half, I'll
43:34
Speaker 1: be on Tennessee. But it's not gonna go on with
43:36
Speaker 1: my best five because we got to talk about the
43:40
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers. They are visiting
43:53
Speaker 1: the Steelers, who are six and a half point favorites.
43:55
Speaker 1: It feels high Monday night football. This is gonna be,
44:00
Speaker 1: you know, the public game of the week. They're all
44:02
Speaker 1: gonna have all their parlays, everything tied to this. Bears
44:05
Speaker 1: have not looked good on the road, but I like
44:09
Speaker 1: what I've seen from fields. Uh Naggie has to come
44:13
Speaker 1: out of that watching that game at home and saying
44:14
Speaker 1: to himself, how do I how am I not getting
44:16
Speaker 1: this guy into more space. It's there's no one like
44:20
Speaker 1: him in the football in the sense that he is
44:23
Speaker 1: still really really figuring out what he does well in
44:26
Speaker 1: this league. But he knows what he does well is
44:28
Speaker 1: rung in the open field. His eyes. He's just so
44:30
Speaker 1: smart that literally is just like Lamar, but he has
44:33
Speaker 1: a stronger arm. So I'm hoping they're gonna make adjustments.
44:38
Speaker 1: But it's scary. Chap. We got Pittsburgh's defense here, who
44:41
Speaker 1: have just been dominant against every offense they've faced. The
44:45
Speaker 1: fan of me is hoping that it gets the plus
44:46
Speaker 1: seven for you, because then I feel good taking the Bears.
44:48
Speaker 1: But it's six and a half. Even though we talked
44:50
Speaker 1: about it as a key number, I don't feel as
44:53
Speaker 1: great because I feel like the prosiman coming and bed
44:55
Speaker 1: it down to six. So we'll see if it gets
44:57
Speaker 1: back up to seven, that this might be one of
44:58
Speaker 1: the games you can get on. I don't feel obligated
45:01
Speaker 1: to be on the Bears in any way, shape or
45:04
Speaker 1: form at this point. All Right, we'll pass on that. Okay.
45:09
Speaker 1: I'm pragmatic about these things. Like about three weeks ago,
45:12
Speaker 1: they had a shot they could have beaten the Packers.
45:14
Speaker 1: They didn't. They've been losing since then. Time to foot
45:17
Speaker 1: put the nail in the coffin on Naggie and pace.
45:19
Speaker 1: Time to get as good a draft position as we can.
45:21
Speaker 1: Bring in a coaching staff that is going to get
45:24
Speaker 1: Justin Fields excited to play again, going to take advantage
45:27
Speaker 1: of his talents and get some talent around him. Let's
45:30
Speaker 1: do it. Let's do it. We got a lot done
45:32
Speaker 1: today because I'm looking at one to three four. I've
45:36
Speaker 1: got about six seven games that I think we're into.
45:39
Speaker 1: We gotta scooch Roulette. Time to take down the Hops.
45:45
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
45:50
Speaker 1: Let's play scooch Roulette. I'm scooch Roulette since I won
45:59
Speaker 1: last week. I think you had the Colts and that,
46:01
Speaker 1: you know, the whole day just unraveled for you. I
46:04
Speaker 1: had the Saints. That was genius. So I get to
46:07
Speaker 1: go who I want? It's non clear cut taking the Bengals.
46:15
Speaker 1: The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back. I'll go Panthers. Then,
46:23
Speaker 1: by the way, the Panthers are going to be my
46:24
Speaker 1: second choice, so I think we're on the second us man.
46:26
Speaker 1: I just that two and a half is so enticing
46:28
Speaker 1: with the Bengals, right, I get, by the way, I'm
46:29
Speaker 1: getting the Bengals of two and a half. I'm not
46:31
Speaker 1: getting the Bengals. Whatever funked up number it lands at
46:34
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Bengals two and a half scoot Roulette. Matt Mitchell,
46:41
Speaker 1: do you want me to read some of these reviews here?
46:43
Speaker 1: Let's give out some some swag, All right, let's give
46:46
Speaker 1: out some swag. To people. Here are some reviews that
46:51
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell flagged for us that we absolutely loved. Here's
46:55
Speaker 1: a five star review. Love the show, love the advice.
47:00
Speaker 1: It's invaluable. I worked for Simon briefly as a runner
47:02
Speaker 1: in Vegas in two thousand and fourteen. My biggest day
47:05
Speaker 1: in the job was Simon had me run to four
47:08
Speaker 1: different sports book to place money line bets on the
47:10
Speaker 1: lines versus the Jets. After the line had moved, after
47:14
Speaker 1: the game was over and the lines cashed, Simon FaceTime
47:17
Speaker 1: me and made me carrying every single dollar and Betts
47:19
Speaker 1: lived to ensure I've done my job perfectly. It was terrifying,
47:23
Speaker 1: especially when I realized he was facetiming me in my
47:26
Speaker 1: living room and I could hear my mother in the background,
47:28
Speaker 1: and then he threatened my mom. I'm reading the whole
47:30
Speaker 1: I was reading the whole thing, but it's just too long.
47:32
Speaker 1: It's a brilliant review. For the record, is not true.
47:36
Speaker 1: I was, in fact myself a runner, so I love
47:39
Speaker 1: the dream of the story. But he's a year or
47:41
Speaker 1: two early. I sang earlier specifically because of this, And
47:46
Speaker 1: I don't know if my buddy davec who works for
47:50
Speaker 1: the Bears, who I've mentioned on the show before. He
47:52
Speaker 1: texted me the other day he goes listen, never do
47:56
Speaker 1: the Vikings Horn again. That was terrible. Here's the review.
47:59
Speaker 1: Keep up the good work, but really good stuff. Five
48:02
Speaker 1: star review. Never afraid to challenge consensus and make the
48:05
Speaker 1: right pis no matter how ugly it may look. Only
48:07
Speaker 1: criticism is Chad seemingly thinks he becomes a better singer,
48:10
Speaker 1: has a better voice with each episode. With all due respect,
48:13
Speaker 1: leave the vocal harmonies to the professionals. Vikings Horn impersonation
48:18
Speaker 1: was the worst. I don't know if that's today or not,
48:20
Speaker 1: because it's hard to tell that the name is like
48:23
Speaker 1: a bunch of letters and numbers. If not clearly, the
48:27
Speaker 1: vikings Horn struck a shall we say cord bottom line,
48:33
Speaker 1: we love the Vikings here. That was my Viking song.
48:38
Speaker 1: Oh the more you hate it, the stronger we get.
48:46
Speaker 1: So any of those people please reach out to podcasts
48:50
Speaker 1: at Action network dot com and I'll send you some swag.
48:54
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. This has been the favorites from the Volume
49:03
Speaker 1: podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday. We will
49:05
Speaker 1: narrow down the slate. We will get our big balls
49:08
Speaker 1: better than week, we will talk about our Survivor picks.
49:10
Speaker 1: We will talk about what the Sharps reacted to. From
49:13
Speaker 1: today's podcast, all of It and more. Download from Spotify,
49:18
Speaker 1: from Apple podcast, wherever you get your podcast. Leave us
49:21
Speaker 1: a five star review, rate and review subscribe we'll send
49:25
Speaker 1: you some swag Until Thursday. I Love you,