Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 5

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 5 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five.
0:13
Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week five Sunday Recap episode. I
0:22
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman and I am joined by my bff,
0:25
Speaker 1: my companion, Mi cam.
0:26
Speaker 2: Padre, my co host, Professional.
0:29
Speaker 1: Better, Simon Hunter, Ellosyman.
0:34
Speaker 3: Hey, Chad, how are we doing? Brother?
0:36
Speaker 1: My voice is a little scratchy at the end of
0:39
Speaker 1: the day today, A couple of yells.
0:41
Speaker 2: But dude, we had a thrilling early window. No joke.
0:44
Speaker 1: Those three games we won in that window, which was Indy, Atlanta,
0:49
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh, all came down to the final couple of minutes.
0:52
Speaker 1: All of them had turnovers, safeties, touchdowns, penalties, all of
0:58
Speaker 1: it that could have heard us. Instead they all went
1:01
Speaker 1: our way. I chuck it up to luck and preparation. Simon,
1:06
Speaker 1: we are three and one on the day, the Niners
1:09
Speaker 1: being one of our biggest bets of the year.
1:12
Speaker 2: Later tonight, how are you feeling?
1:14
Speaker 4: Feeling pretty good? I'm feeling I'm like the same as you.
1:16
Speaker 4: It feels like we got lucky, Like a lot of
1:18
Speaker 4: the bets.
1:18
Speaker 3: Definitely broke our way.
1:19
Speaker 4: But whenever you're you know the guy you're betting on,
1:23
Speaker 4: Like Richardson goes down, we have Minch. You come in
1:24
Speaker 4: and we're still able to somehow cover that number. Feel
1:28
Speaker 4: pretty lucky when me and you wouldn't switch out any
1:30
Speaker 4: picks because we want to keep Atlanta and that was
1:32
Speaker 4: a good number. And at landed literally right on two,
1:35
Speaker 4: which is crazy because it's like Chris, Chris was able
1:37
Speaker 4: to cover his two and a half. We're able to
1:38
Speaker 4: cover our one and a half. That's always pretty nice.
1:42
Speaker 4: But me and you said before a game on that
1:44
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh game is like you just play the number. Forget
1:47
Speaker 4: all the bs, all the other stuff, everything you're breaking
1:49
Speaker 4: down all the logic to try to make of the
1:51
Speaker 4: stupid sport we call football. That was just the classic
1:55
Speaker 4: you take the number. Little things have to break our
1:57
Speaker 4: way and they did. Like that game, we felt dead.
2:00
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know about you. I felt dead
2:01
Speaker 4: that whole first half. It was like that offense had nothing,
2:04
Speaker 4: Kenny had nothing. Classic example of momentum, like they get
2:07
Speaker 4: that block, bunt flip the momentum of the game somehow. Again,
2:11
Speaker 4: we were a down ten eight with the Ravens had
2:15
Speaker 4: the ball getting ready to score at least kick a
2:17
Speaker 4: field goal and the whole game flips. We get the
2:19
Speaker 4: pick in the end zone and we ever we end
2:21
Speaker 4: up Pittsburgh outright winning seventeen to ten.
2:24
Speaker 1: So yeah, we're gonna we're gonna get into that game.
2:26
Speaker 1: We're gonna get We're gonna get into that game a
2:28
Speaker 1: little bit deeper. Incredible Sunday for convince me this morning.
2:32
Speaker 1: If you're not watching our pregame show What Is Wrong
2:35
Speaker 1: with You, catch it at eleven am Eastern on Actions
2:38
Speaker 1: YouTube page or in the Action app.
2:40
Speaker 2: Simon, you nailed.
2:41
Speaker 1: Your player prop, which was you had Devon Chen anytime
2:47
Speaker 1: touchdown stuck. He had Bijon anytime touchdown. You had the
2:51
Speaker 1: Texans Falcons under, Raybon had the Baltimore Steelers under he
2:58
Speaker 1: had Texans plus two and a half.
2:59
Speaker 2: It was it was awesome.
3:02
Speaker 4: You got that right. So you got that right.
3:09
Speaker 2: So got that right. Plus we did pretty well.
3:13
Speaker 1: We got our foxhoil right, we got our big balls right,
3:17
Speaker 1: we got our executive decision right. As a reminder, the
3:21
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five. Bet
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Speaker 1: for Bet three six five every Wednesday. They asked me
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Speaker 1: to run down best bet, same game parlay, money line parlay,
4:26
Speaker 1: my same game parlays hit for the past two weeks.
4:28
Speaker 1: This week it was Lions team total I think over
4:34
Speaker 1: twenty and a half. It was Aiden Hutchinson sat anytime
4:38
Speaker 1: sack and David Montgomery anytime touchdown.
4:42
Speaker 2: How about that, how do a good day.
4:44
Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can get you every episode of
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4:55
Speaker 2: All right.
4:56
Speaker 1: We had Pittsburgh plus three and a half in the contest.
5:00
Speaker 1: It closed at four and a half. We had Atlanta
5:03
Speaker 1: minus one and a half in the contest. It closed
5:06
Speaker 1: at two and a half. We had Indy plus two
5:09
Speaker 1: and a half. We're going to get deeper into that game.
5:11
Speaker 1: We had Denver minus two and a half. You get
5:14
Speaker 1: what you deserve when you bet on the Broncos or
5:16
Speaker 1: the Jets for that matter.
5:18
Speaker 2: We have San.
5:18
Speaker 1: Francisco minus three and a half remaining. I would say, simon,
5:23
Speaker 1: the biggest game that we considered that we passed on
5:26
Speaker 1: in the contest was Saints plus one and a half,
5:29
Speaker 1: which was my exac decision this week. And the contest
5:33
Speaker 1: is interesting, right and part of the spine of our
5:37
Speaker 1: show is doing this contest. We got twelve thousand people
5:40
Speaker 1: that signed up for it. We want to do it
5:41
Speaker 1: well in the contest, and last week we were five
5:44
Speaker 1: and zero. This week we're three and one, but we've
5:47
Speaker 1: changed our strategy a little bit. The contest lines are dynamic,
5:50
Speaker 1: so they're always changing. But once you lock, you're locked.
5:55
Speaker 1: So you could lock on Thursday and if you are
5:57
Speaker 1: happy with your numbers, you keep those.
5:59
Speaker 2: But if you decide you.
6:01
Speaker 1: Want to change, then you got to change everything and
6:03
Speaker 1: go with any number that's available in the contest. So
6:06
Speaker 1: we this morning were starting to you know, we locked
6:09
Speaker 1: our games on Thursday, and then this morning we were
6:12
Speaker 1: looking at the numbers. Pittsburgh was at four and a
6:15
Speaker 1: half and New Orleans was at one and a half.
6:17
Speaker 1: We liked both those a lot, but Atlanta had moved
6:20
Speaker 1: to two and a half and I think, uh, and
6:25
Speaker 1: we didn't like that, and Denver had moved to two
6:27
Speaker 1: and a half. Denver had been at one and a half,
6:30
Speaker 1: so we decided to stay where it was. I feel
6:31
Speaker 1: like I'm okay with that at the end of the day.
6:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll never complain about three and two week if
6:37
Speaker 4: if we don't cover at four houris to night. But
6:38
Speaker 4: we have to still have a chance at four and one,
6:40
Speaker 4: So talk all the time. The goal is I know
6:43
Speaker 4: it sounds boring, but the goal every week is three
6:45
Speaker 4: and two, and that's that's been good to us. The
6:48
Speaker 4: one year we finished in the top twenty five, that's
6:51
Speaker 4: pretty much where we averaged.
6:52
Speaker 1: You.
6:52
Speaker 4: I think we went sixty two percent. Last year we
6:54
Speaker 4: won sixty three percent. But like our own tournament here,
6:57
Speaker 4: there are so many people. We only finished top one
6:59
Speaker 4: hund even though we did better the year before. It's
7:02
Speaker 4: just when you're in these huge contesters, just it's just
7:04
Speaker 4: really hard to get to the top.
7:05
Speaker 3: So, uh yeah, three and two, three and four and one.
7:09
Speaker 4: That's that was the goal hopefully today and uh still
7:12
Speaker 4: still Fredy probably confidence this forty nine ers team. So yeah,
7:15
Speaker 4: got again. We'll dive into the games here. But I
7:18
Speaker 4: felt like, yeah, Denver terrible read. But the other games,
7:22
Speaker 4: like we really did talk about how we predicted how
7:24
Speaker 4: to play out, and they kind of all did the
7:26
Speaker 4: way we predicted. The only one that really shocked me
7:28
Speaker 4: was that drive by CG at the end of that
7:31
Speaker 4: Houston game, Like that was incredible where the kid did nothing,
7:34
Speaker 4: couldn't again in the end zone all game and then
7:36
Speaker 4: with all the pressure, everything going against them down six,
7:39
Speaker 4: gets the ball drives.
7:40
Speaker 3: The whole field.
7:42
Speaker 4: What can you say about this kid from Houston just
7:44
Speaker 4: just incredible as poise and everything just through five games
7:47
Speaker 4: into the season.
7:47
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's talk about that game for a minute,
7:49
Speaker 1: because Atlanta, when we talked about this game last Sunday,
7:53
Speaker 1: the line was three and a half and we immediately said,
7:57
Speaker 1: we'll wait until this gets under three. And the wise
8:00
Speaker 1: guys came in and they bet CJ. Stroud, and they
8:03
Speaker 1: bet this number under three and a half. They bet
8:06
Speaker 1: under three.
8:07
Speaker 2: It got down to one.
8:10
Speaker 1: I bet it at one and a half on the
8:11
Speaker 1: way back, and then it started going back up.
8:14
Speaker 2: And the wise guys loved CJ. Stroud.
8:19
Speaker 1: And this was like there were a couple of fifty
8:21
Speaker 1: to fifty games and we happened to be on the
8:23
Speaker 1: right side of both of them, but this one was
8:26
Speaker 1: dividing the betting community because of CJ. Stroud, who was
8:31
Speaker 1: great in the game. Like that last drive. What did
8:35
Speaker 1: you see in that last drive which put the Texans
8:38
Speaker 1: ahead with less than two minutes left.
8:43
Speaker 4: I mean, I just saw a guy that just didn't panic,
8:45
Speaker 4: Like even when they're in these third I mean that
8:47
Speaker 4: touchdown might have been on third and nine, Like he
8:48
Speaker 4: kept getting these long third down positions and he just
8:51
Speaker 4: never really seem phase by it, and it's like it's
8:55
Speaker 4: just crazy. You see these other guys like Mac Jones
8:57
Speaker 4: who looks totally lost, and these other guys in the
8:59
Speaker 4: league that are like they've been in it for a
9:00
Speaker 4: long time. They look completely lost, where this kid doesn't
9:04
Speaker 4: have an all star cast around him. I mean, he
9:05
Speaker 4: just got back his starting tackle this week. He's been
9:09
Speaker 4: doing this weekend week out, and what I predicted about
9:11
Speaker 4: the game came true, where it's like this kid's going
9:13
Speaker 4: to struggle, like the film's out on him. The defenses
9:16
Speaker 4: are taking away the things he wants to do, and
9:18
Speaker 4: he did for three and a half quarters. The kid
9:20
Speaker 4: couldn't play it together. But you saw in that drive
9:23
Speaker 4: what makes him so great, which is just the accuracy,
9:26
Speaker 4: his commness in the pocket, making the right reads and
9:29
Speaker 4: still no turnovers. It's crazy to watch me now. So
9:31
Speaker 4: that's why I feel really lucky we got the best
9:34
Speaker 4: of the number when we covered the number, just because
9:36
Speaker 4: that was the right spot, like we were fading a
9:38
Speaker 4: rookie on the road after he's looked lights out again.
9:42
Speaker 4: We'll talk about this upcoming week. I don't know if
9:44
Speaker 4: we have to do it again, but the public is
9:47
Speaker 4: just totally in love with this kid and this Houston team.
9:50
Speaker 4: I mean, he just keeps covering them for them. So
9:53
Speaker 4: definitely depends what side of the line you're on, but
9:55
Speaker 4: if you're on that Houston side, you're feeling pretty happy today.
9:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's some already some numbers that I'm interested in
10:03
Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about later in the show,
10:06
Speaker 1: some early leans. But this game was insane, like the Falcons.
10:11
Speaker 1: You know, we had previewed in the Favorites film session
10:13
Speaker 1: talking about the Falcons running game, and today Desmond Ridder
10:17
Speaker 1: was brilliant, Like I don't know where that came from,
10:20
Speaker 1: but he was throwing darts down the scene.
10:22
Speaker 2: He was making the right plays.
10:24
Speaker 1: To be honest, the only reason the Falcons the Texans
10:26
Speaker 1: were even in that game is because of back to
10:29
Speaker 1: back fumbles on back to back drives when in the
10:31
Speaker 1: second one the Falcons were knocking on the red zone
10:34
Speaker 1: and so they tried to give this game away in
10:37
Speaker 1: every possible way.
10:40
Speaker 2: Like Desmond Ritter was was lights out.
10:42
Speaker 1: He's now undefeated at home in college, in the NFL,
10:46
Speaker 1: and in high school.
10:47
Speaker 3: I think again, I just felt lucky.
10:49
Speaker 4: The guy had seven points in the first half, like
10:51
Speaker 4: Thank god the defense held three field goals.
10:55
Speaker 3: We really escaped on that one.
10:57
Speaker 2: All right, another game which actually I never felt nervous about.
11:06
Speaker 2: Last week.
11:06
Speaker 1: We loved Indie when it opened minus one and a half.
11:11
Speaker 1: And on the Thursday show, Simon, you made a big
11:13
Speaker 1: show of praising me for a call that I made,
11:16
Speaker 1: and you're like, I'm giving Chads flowers. I can't remember
11:20
Speaker 1: what the game was, so I must return the favorite
11:24
Speaker 1: this time. Last week I might have been leaning Titans
11:30
Speaker 1: and you very politely walked me back. Some people might
11:35
Speaker 1: have said it sounded like you were.
11:36
Speaker 2: Mean to me, but you weren't.
11:38
Speaker 1: And because you are very thoughtful, you in the middle
11:42
Speaker 1: of our epic runs today you slacked me in Matt
11:46
Speaker 1: Mitchell and told him to pull a clip of how
11:49
Speaker 1: you said to me to walk to not like the
11:51
Speaker 1: Titans this week.
11:52
Speaker 2: Mitchell will drop it in the show.
11:55
Speaker 1: So you said you thought we'd be fading Mike Vrabel
11:59
Speaker 1: this week.
12:00
Speaker 2: Here's the problem. They're a one point dog at Indy.
12:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why you're fading them, Chad. You think that's
12:07
Speaker 3: a good number. You're getting good value there.
12:09
Speaker 2: I don't feel anything that line, come.
12:11
Speaker 4: On, That line stinks tell me, well, let the public
12:14
Speaker 4: bet it. We'll get the Colts as a dog. Like
12:17
Speaker 4: people are gonna come in like you, they're gonna take
12:19
Speaker 4: Tennessee here.
12:19
Speaker 1: Ahh, I'm not doing anything yet. Don't be mean to
12:22
Speaker 1: me on Sunday nights just because you haven't slept for days.
12:27
Speaker 2: All praise to you.
12:29
Speaker 1: You nail this because we betted at one and a
12:30
Speaker 1: half when the culture matters one and a half, and
12:32
Speaker 1: then we bettered again when the cults were dogs all
12:35
Speaker 1: the way up to two and a half. The entire
12:37
Speaker 1: world was against us in this one.
12:39
Speaker 2: This was our Foxhole. Well done, Simon Hunter.
12:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, another game that took a year off my life,
12:45
Speaker 4: Like I hate sometimes you hate this job. And that's
12:47
Speaker 4: one of them where it's like Richardson goes down. I
12:49
Speaker 4: have a ton of money tied to this game, and
12:52
Speaker 4: I might have been the opening drive. Tell you're going
12:54
Speaker 4: right down the field score a touchdown. I'm just like,
12:56
Speaker 4: well that's how it goes like.
12:58
Speaker 3: That was a terrible read.
13:00
Speaker 4: But luckily Minshew makes big throws and man.
13:04
Speaker 3: Is there a better backup in football? Right now?
13:05
Speaker 4: The kid's got two wins, you know, wins that Ravens
13:09
Speaker 4: game wins this game, and you know you gotta be
13:12
Speaker 4: feeling pretty good if you're a Colts van because it
13:15
Speaker 4: seems like Richard's not that hurt, so able to get
13:18
Speaker 4: the win. Hopefully he's back in a week or two,
13:21
Speaker 4: and you know, you just had some bad luck. People
13:22
Speaker 4: want to say his injury prone and everything like that.
13:24
Speaker 4: I mean, the one play was stupid. He fell on
13:26
Speaker 4: his back, he hit the back of his head, got concussion.
13:29
Speaker 4: This play was just the same old big d tackle
13:32
Speaker 4: landed on his shoulder when he took him to the ground,
13:33
Speaker 4: and that those injuries are gonna happen in football. So
13:37
Speaker 4: for the Colts, I hope he does come back soon
13:39
Speaker 4: because you can see that running style when you have
13:41
Speaker 4: to account for the quarterback that just takes the defender away.
13:45
Speaker 4: I don't think it was Taylor had a big day either.
13:46
Speaker 4: I think it was Moss at the really good day
13:48
Speaker 4: for the Colts team.
13:49
Speaker 3: So yeah, it feels good, Chad.
13:52
Speaker 4: That we always preach it if you if you like
13:54
Speaker 4: a number that's bad and it keeps moving against you,
13:56
Speaker 4: you just keep betting all the way. You just trust
13:58
Speaker 4: the model, trust the number. And couldn't get enough of
14:02
Speaker 4: those two and a half, So they just stuck there
14:03
Speaker 4: all weekend anyone wanted to, and people came in on
14:06
Speaker 4: that Titans team and we just we said it last week,
14:08
Speaker 4: that line just stunk. So Phil's going to be on
14:11
Speaker 4: the right side of that one.
14:12
Speaker 2: I will tell you.
14:13
Speaker 1: I made a note in my notebook here while I
14:14
Speaker 1: was watching the game of how I felt when Anthony
14:19
Speaker 1: Richardson went out and Gardner Minshew came in, and I wrote,
14:24
Speaker 1: I'm actually not that concerned. I felt like that the
14:29
Speaker 1: Colts were playing really well, and they played with the
14:33
Speaker 1: level of confidence that they haven't played with in the
14:36
Speaker 1: past when Frank Reich was the coach and Shane Steichen
14:41
Speaker 1: and Gannon two we've talked about this in Arizona, like
14:44
Speaker 1: those two Philadelphia coordinators. They got their guys playing, and
14:50
Speaker 1: you know, it didn't work out for the Cardinals Today.
14:51
Speaker 1: Another game I'm glad we passed on because I was
14:55
Speaker 1: so tempted each day to bet the Cardinals and just
14:57
Speaker 1: stayed away from it, and also was nervous about the Bengals.
15:00
Speaker 2: But the Colts like they play hard.
15:05
Speaker 1: Their linebackers. Who's leading Franklin, I think as his name is,
15:07
Speaker 1: who's leading the league?
15:08
Speaker 2: In tackles.
15:09
Speaker 1: They're a really interesting team. I'm not I'm fascinated by
15:13
Speaker 1: this team.
15:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're a fun team, but they're definitely a team
15:16
Speaker 4: it's hard to get a read on, Like a lot
15:17
Speaker 4: of people say they just can't really get a read.
15:19
Speaker 3: On this team.
15:19
Speaker 4: That's why I went to Tennessee, and I totally get that.
15:22
Speaker 4: But I feel like I do have a good read
15:24
Speaker 4: on this team. I kind of get what they're good at,
15:26
Speaker 4: what their strains are, and what the weaknesses are. And
15:28
Speaker 4: you know, I'm not here to give away all the secrets,
15:30
Speaker 4: but if I come in so hard at someone, then
15:32
Speaker 4: they're trying to go to the other side where it's like
15:34
Speaker 4: there's just something fishing about a line. You know, it's
15:37
Speaker 4: usually a little indicator. Again, I don't at least Sunday shows.
15:40
Speaker 4: It's tough because I don't have any data right, nothing's
15:43
Speaker 4: running the model. Me and Ched are just coming on
15:45
Speaker 4: here reacting to a live show, reacting live to the line.
15:48
Speaker 4: So that's why it's like, yeah, I might not have
15:51
Speaker 4: been dead on about my colts take whatever I said
15:54
Speaker 4: Sunday night, but I do know. By Tuesday, I was like,
15:57
Speaker 4: this is a game, We're going to be all over
15:59
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's nice. Where my Thursday show, I was
16:03
Speaker 4: like scared because like the line moved totally against us,
16:06
Speaker 4: but totally worked out. We just took the value in
16:09
Speaker 4: never a doubt in the plus two and a half.
16:11
Speaker 2: Well, it was also fun this week because.
16:15
Speaker 1: I felt so stupid on Sunday night when I said
16:19
Speaker 1: I was leaning Titans and You're like, I don't.
16:21
Speaker 2: Know if you want to do that.
16:22
Speaker 1: And by the end of the week after you had
16:26
Speaker 1: done Anthony Richardson in the Favorites film room and broken
16:29
Speaker 1: him down, and even by Thursday afternoon when we were
16:34
Speaker 1: doing the podcast and everybody else was on the Titans,
16:39
Speaker 1: you were like, oh, I don't know, I'm getting a
16:40
Speaker 1: litle nervous, but I'm like, you know what, I'm fully
16:43
Speaker 1: convinced the Titan I mean, the Texans the Colts are
16:46
Speaker 1: the right side. Because you had swayed me so aggressively,
16:52
Speaker 1: I'll ask you one question, though, what are they good at?
16:56
Speaker 2: I watched that whole.
16:57
Speaker 1: Game and I cannot figure out why they keeping other
17:00
Speaker 1: than they make their aggressive.
17:03
Speaker 2: I think Shane Stikeen is really good coach and make.
17:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, you say great play calling.
17:07
Speaker 4: Lie That's what it is, right, Yeah, game in like
17:11
Speaker 4: their situational awareness where he just calls really smart plays
17:15
Speaker 4: on third and fourth, like yep, you know, they just
17:17
Speaker 4: get themselves in short businesses and you know, I know how.
17:20
Speaker 3: I don't know how much they paid Taylor, but if
17:23
Speaker 3: they can make.
17:24
Speaker 4: That work, that run scheme with him Moss and Richardson
17:27
Speaker 4: when he comes back, that's that's the thing I like
17:29
Speaker 4: about that team where it's like we already know the
17:31
Speaker 4: kids are arm talent, it's it's the running stuff that
17:33
Speaker 4: really brings it up. So so the offense changed when
17:35
Speaker 4: Minshew came in. It's even if he's out next week, Richardson,
17:39
Speaker 4: I still wouldn't be terrified. I don't know what the
17:40
Speaker 4: Colts number is right now, but I mean we'll talk
17:43
Speaker 4: about them. They might not be a team m'd be
17:44
Speaker 4: scared off of if it is Minshew.
17:46
Speaker 1: Three years, forty two million, by the way, is what
17:48
Speaker 1: they paid Jonathan Taylor.
17:50
Speaker 2: So but you're right, it's the play.
17:53
Speaker 1: Calling and I made a note of that, like Stiking
17:56
Speaker 1: is is a little bit like Mike Rabel. He he
18:00
Speaker 1: makes the interesting, right risky call at the right time,
18:04
Speaker 1: and because he's so consistent about how he's going to
18:06
Speaker 1: make those calls, and they clearly practice these kinds of things.
18:09
Speaker 1: The team believes it right, and so they're converting at
18:11
Speaker 1: a higher level on the plays that make the game.
18:14
Speaker 1: If there's six or seven plays in a game, they're
18:16
Speaker 1: converting at a higher level because he's got them in
18:19
Speaker 1: a position to do that. It's interesting you talk about
18:23
Speaker 1: continuing to bet a game when you believe in the number.
18:26
Speaker 1: I did that with the Colts. I did a lot
18:28
Speaker 1: with the Steelers this week. Bet him at three and
18:32
Speaker 1: a half, bet him at four, Bet him again at
18:35
Speaker 1: four and a half. Bet the under Like initially we
18:40
Speaker 1: were nervous about this game, and then we saw all
18:43
Speaker 1: the numbers that Evan was giving us. Tomlin is an
18:47
Speaker 1: underdog throughout his career. Tomlin is an underdog in this series,
18:51
Speaker 1: the underdog generally in this series. Lamar as a favorite,
18:56
Speaker 1: not being very good like again and again and again,
19:00
Speaker 1: ended up having, you know, for me, an uncomfortable amount
19:04
Speaker 1: of money on this game, and it was fucking zany.
19:11
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's nice when you can kind of not I
19:13
Speaker 4: don't want to call it lazy betting, but it's kind
19:16
Speaker 4: of lazy, Like me and Chad pretty much said it
19:18
Speaker 4: where it's like, we don't have a choice. We've been
19:20
Speaker 4: betting this exact spot ever since me and Chad started
19:23
Speaker 4: working together. We just always take the dog, especially if
19:25
Speaker 4: it's over three and a half every time, and people
19:29
Speaker 4: complained about it, They're like, there's more to it. You
19:31
Speaker 4: can't just bundy bet these trends. I hate it too, people.
19:34
Speaker 4: You think I like it when people can just lazily
19:36
Speaker 4: be like, no, you take the dog on the under.
19:38
Speaker 3: It's annoying.
19:39
Speaker 4: I agree, but it wins and we just keep doing it.
19:42
Speaker 4: You can go through all the previous times these teams
19:44
Speaker 4: are played and what the scores were like. It sounds crazy,
19:48
Speaker 4: but it's just history continually to repeat itself, and that's
19:51
Speaker 4: what we happen in this game. So I had totally
19:53
Speaker 4: given up ten to three. Kenny Pickott could not do
19:56
Speaker 4: a single thing. I was saying what all you guys
19:58
Speaker 4: were saying. I was like, that was such a stud
20:00
Speaker 4: cod bet this. This offense is broken. This team has
20:03
Speaker 4: no heart, they have no desire. And the magic happened
20:06
Speaker 4: and they totally flipped, and me and Chad Simar are
20:08
Speaker 4: sitting here on a money line winner on Pittsburgh and
20:11
Speaker 4: I just came with there won seventeen to ten. Football
20:14
Speaker 4: is just really stupid sometimes, and that's why you just
20:16
Speaker 4: you bet the number of people like we gave you
20:18
Speaker 4: the trends.
20:19
Speaker 3: Everything is there next year.
20:21
Speaker 4: If this opportunity pops up again, even if it's a
20:25
Speaker 4: Raven's a three and a half, you already know what
20:26
Speaker 4: me and Chad are gonna do. We're gonna take the
20:28
Speaker 4: dog in this position. So yeah, love when the numbers
20:31
Speaker 4: hit like that.
20:32
Speaker 3: Chad.
20:33
Speaker 1: I made a note in the middle of this game
20:35
Speaker 1: two things. One, George Pickens is the only offensive weapon.
20:40
Speaker 1: And then in the last in the last four minutes,
20:42
Speaker 1: he made every catch that mattered. And then I wrote,
20:45
Speaker 1: the only way the Steelers cover this game is a
20:49
Speaker 1: big play that gives them a short field and then
20:53
Speaker 1: fucking chaos, like there was a they had the block punt,
20:57
Speaker 1: they had, there was the safety, then they had the fumble.
21:01
Speaker 1: The Steelers had the fumble, I think it was on
21:03
Speaker 1: the return kick for the safety. And then the Ravens
21:06
Speaker 1: are driving and they have the miraculous Joey Porter junior
21:11
Speaker 1: interception in the end zone, and then can you Pickett
21:16
Speaker 1: hitch George Pickens for a bomb, Like, are you freaking
21:19
Speaker 1: kidding me that they won this game? That it is
21:23
Speaker 1: somehow simon. The Steelers are tied with the Ravens at
21:27
Speaker 1: three and two for first place in the AFC North.
21:31
Speaker 1: The Colts are three and two and contending in the
21:37
Speaker 1: AFC South. What in the be jeesus is happening here?
21:43
Speaker 3: Yeah? And uh, you know.
21:48
Speaker 4: Again, I have no idea how the rest of the
21:50
Speaker 4: season is going to go. But there's always times where
21:52
Speaker 4: I feel bad for the fan bases. I feel horrible
21:55
Speaker 4: for the Raves. They're about to be three to ozho
21:57
Speaker 4: in their division, all games won, all the road and
22:01
Speaker 4: it just all fell apart there at the end, Like
22:03
Speaker 4: you're up ten eight with the ball and your your
22:05
Speaker 4: opponent's red zone. It's just football, so sickening, Like it's
22:09
Speaker 4: the sickest. That's why we make these bets. Like, yeah,
22:11
Speaker 4: do I feel an idiot when we're gonna talk about Denver?
22:14
Speaker 4: I feel like a fucking idiot. Yeah, that was horrible bet.
22:16
Speaker 4: Horrible read. That's life betting bad teams. If I had
22:19
Speaker 4: a model that told me they're gonna fumble the ball
22:21
Speaker 4: three times, probably would have faded Denver probably would have
22:24
Speaker 4: been the right read. So this is life betting bad
22:27
Speaker 4: teams like they're gonna do sloppy, shitty stuff, and that
22:30
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh one had all the makings of I don't know
22:33
Speaker 4: how they're gonna get to this number, but they're gonna
22:34
Speaker 4: somehow get to it.
22:35
Speaker 3: And that's just a great feel when those numbers work out.
22:38
Speaker 2: All right.
22:38
Speaker 1: So you mentioned Denver. That's the one game that we lost.
22:41
Speaker 1: We had Denver minus two and a half in the contest,
22:44
Speaker 1: and I could see why, like we were just fading.
22:48
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson.
22:48
Speaker 1: I was a little surprised this was your best bet
22:50
Speaker 1: of the day and convinced me that you went with
22:53
Speaker 1: this instead of New Orleans or something else, Like we
22:55
Speaker 1: had talked about New Orleans all week, and like we
22:57
Speaker 1: were so in on yours, and you know, we Max
23:02
Speaker 1: Jones is terrible. We knew that before this game we
23:06
Speaker 1: were and we knew Matthew Judown was out and Christian
23:09
Speaker 1: Gonzalez was out and look the Broncos, two truly incompetent teams. First,
23:16
Speaker 1: have safety for the Jets against the Broncos, Jets couldn't
23:20
Speaker 1: spike the ball for a field goal at the end
23:22
Speaker 1: of the half from inside the Broncos five. The Denver
23:26
Speaker 1: d gave up a massive touchdown run to Breis Hall, fumbled,
23:29
Speaker 1: the Jets fumbled two punts, on one of them the
23:32
Speaker 1: Broncos recovered and then fumbled it right back. The Jets
23:35
Speaker 1: throw a pick six in a pick in the end
23:37
Speaker 1: zone when they could have closed the game out, and
23:40
Speaker 1: then the Broncos fumbled for a scoop and scorer for
23:42
Speaker 1: the Jet to seal it.
23:43
Speaker 2: Like I'm so glad it's over.
23:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it sucks. So probably the bed Denver again
23:50
Speaker 3: next week.
23:51
Speaker 4: But honestly, no regret. Its like I played a number there.
23:55
Speaker 4: My read on Wilson was pretty true. I mean it
23:57
Speaker 4: was thirteen eight a halftime, and you know, Sean Payton,
24:01
Speaker 4: this this guy I do high in high regards. His
24:04
Speaker 4: offense came out had four to three and outs in
24:05
Speaker 4: the second half. Like you're not gonna win any games
24:09
Speaker 4: like that. I don't care who you're playing against. And
24:11
Speaker 4: unfortunately it didn't really matter what Zach Wilson did. They
24:13
Speaker 4: had the running game working, and I think Hale the
24:16
Speaker 4: run you're talking about was their first or maybe second
24:18
Speaker 4: possession of the second half. He just broke a long
24:20
Speaker 4: one for a touchdown and kind of kind of sealed
24:23
Speaker 4: our fate. Just too many turnovers by the Broncos. So yeah,
24:26
Speaker 4: the afternoon games weren't kind of me like, even even
24:30
Speaker 4: though we didn't have it in there, I had a
24:31
Speaker 4: decent amount on that Vikings not three and a half
24:35
Speaker 4: but the four and a half, and it was just like,
24:37
Speaker 4: you know, one of those days where you play the
24:40
Speaker 4: numbers and it felt like a good read, but it
24:43
Speaker 4: clearly was it. The Chiefs for the better team all day.
24:45
Speaker 4: Even when Kelsey went out, their offense still didn't miss
24:48
Speaker 4: a beat. So they're just gonna come to the territory
24:51
Speaker 4: betting bad teams. They're not always gonna get there for you.
24:54
Speaker 3: It's just how it goes.
24:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually didn't hesitate at all on the Broncos.
24:57
Speaker 1: I felt like, yeah, makes sense, like the numbers right,
25:01
Speaker 1: less than a field go. The Jets haven't proven it
25:03
Speaker 1: yet now they have, like Zach Wilson was better for
25:06
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. Simon, I want you and
25:11
Speaker 1: I want everybody listening to make Little Caesars, which is
25:13
Speaker 1: the official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your
25:17
Speaker 1: game day, Simon can Little Caesars calm you down after
25:21
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it can.
25:24
Speaker 2: You can calm anyone down.
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Speaker 2: Toppings, all but the crust, All but the crust.
25:45
Speaker 1: That is, basically, it's like the one hundred and two
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Speaker 1: yard run back. That's how much toppings Simon wants covering
25:52
Speaker 1: the top of the pizza.
25:54
Speaker 2: However you handle your Little Caesars, you win.
25:56
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or
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Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends
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Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. All right,
26:07
Speaker 1: to recap our foxlaw was Indie plus two and a
26:09
Speaker 1: half check Big Balls Bet of the Week, Pittsburgh plus
26:15
Speaker 1: four check EXAC decision New Orleans.
26:18
Speaker 2: Plus one and a half.
26:20
Speaker 1: When Simon says Atlanta minus two, all right, that push,
26:24
Speaker 1: but if you were really listening, you should have you
26:26
Speaker 1: should have gotten it at minus one and a half.
26:28
Speaker 1: Our round Robin. We had Pittsburgh we won. We had
26:31
Speaker 1: Indy we won. We had the Rams we lost. We
26:33
Speaker 1: had Minnesota we lost. We had Arizona we lost.
26:39
Speaker 2: So two out of the five.
26:42
Speaker 1: For those joining live right now, our Sunday Night Football
26:45
Speaker 1: lean Simon, You and I are overloaded on San Francisco
26:50
Speaker 1: minus three and a half. It's the remaining bet of
26:52
Speaker 1: our phaves five to hopefully go four and one. Give
26:58
Speaker 1: people a little bit of a rundown on why you're
26:59
Speaker 1: still liking San Francisco.
27:03
Speaker 4: I mean, we had a bunch of reasons, but the
27:05
Speaker 4: biggest one is we just we'd like this matchup for
27:07
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers.
27:09
Speaker 3: You know, situationally, they they should win this game.
27:12
Speaker 4: They're the better team right now, they're the healthier team
27:14
Speaker 4: looking at this matchup. Offensively, we think they're gonna be
27:17
Speaker 4: able to run the ball against Dallas. And you know,
27:19
Speaker 4: I said a lot of questions about Dallas right now,
27:21
Speaker 4: so it's not too shocking. The number has not moved
27:24
Speaker 4: at all. If they just hang up there, it's just
27:26
Speaker 4: stayed there all week. You know, me and Chad normally
27:30
Speaker 4: would always be on the dog in this spot, but
27:32
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers is a home favorite tends to
27:35
Speaker 4: go pretty chalky, so it's been a pretty good week
27:38
Speaker 4: for Chalk. I think the number one bet between bets
27:41
Speaker 4: and tickets was Miami. They covered outright, was never really
27:45
Speaker 4: a sweat, even though they threw a pick six the
27:47
Speaker 4: other other end zone, and Detroit, another team most publicly
27:51
Speaker 4: bet team Double Ditch Dog covered. So hopefully the chalk'sman
27:55
Speaker 4: keeps going good, Chad, and we get another one here
27:58
Speaker 4: to close out Sunday night and.
27:59
Speaker 2: Go for him.
28:01
Speaker 1: Evan, I wonder if you could type this into the
28:03
Speaker 1: chat while I'm saying a couple more things about this game,
28:06
Speaker 1: But I do wonder did the Giants end up going
28:09
Speaker 1: below that twenty percent or fifteen percent betting threshold. I
28:15
Speaker 1: do feel like with this Niners game, until this morning,
28:19
Speaker 1: I'm convinced me I hadn't heard anyone tell me why
28:22
Speaker 1: they liked the Cowboys other than feeling like the teams
28:25
Speaker 1: are evenly mashed and they're getting the hook, which to
28:27
Speaker 1: me wasn't enough because I actually feel like the Niners
28:29
Speaker 1: have a better coach, better scheme, better offense, equal defense
28:33
Speaker 1: at worst.
28:34
Speaker 2: Stucky had a little bit more.
28:35
Speaker 1: Logic about not believing in the Niners rush defense, but
28:41
Speaker 1: against the spread, Shanahan is above five hundred as a
28:45
Speaker 1: fave of more than three at home. McCarthy and Deck
28:47
Speaker 1: together are above five hundred against the spread when they
28:52
Speaker 1: are dogs of.
28:53
Speaker 2: Three or more on the road.
28:55
Speaker 1: The only stat that stood out to me, which I
28:57
Speaker 1: think plays into sort of how we think of the
29:00
Speaker 1: Cowboys and dak as a team that tends to choke,
29:05
Speaker 1: is he is twenty and five straight up in night
29:09
Speaker 1: games during his career when he's a favorite, and three
29:12
Speaker 1: and seven when he's a dog. So this is not
29:13
Speaker 1: a spot that he tends to win. Forget about covering.
29:15
Speaker 1: He doesn't tend to win in this.
29:18
Speaker 2: Spot all right. Tomorrow night we got the Packers visiting
29:23
Speaker 2: the Las Vegas Raiders. We previewed this.
29:27
Speaker 1: In the show last week. I think at the time
29:32
Speaker 1: the Raiders were one point underdogs. Now they're two point favorites.
29:38
Speaker 1: I don't love betting on a team when it swings
29:40
Speaker 1: from underdog to favorite. The trends are against us. How
29:43
Speaker 1: are you feeling about this?
29:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, game, we talked a little bit about two and
29:48
Speaker 4: a half. They're plus two and a half on Tuesday.
29:50
Speaker 4: The Lions are running by the time we do the
29:52
Speaker 4: show Thursday, and it was announced Jimmy would be the
29:54
Speaker 4: starter got two and a half. I think there got
29:57
Speaker 4: the minus two and a half. Now it's settled at
29:58
Speaker 4: minus two. I'm with Chad like I still probably would
30:02
Speaker 4: bet on the Raiders. I probably still will, but totally
30:06
Speaker 4: get if you don't like this summer you just want
30:07
Speaker 4: to skip. I just it's hard for me to back
30:09
Speaker 4: level on the road against a Raiders team. It's just
30:11
Speaker 4: desperate here for a win. So I'll take the tick
30:15
Speaker 4: the home favorite here at minus two.
30:17
Speaker 1: Simon, can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in
30:21
Speaker 1: the United States?
30:23
Speaker 3: Game Time?
30:24
Speaker 2: That's right, it's.
30:25
Speaker 1: A sponsor, game Time. I love game Time for two reasons.
30:28
Speaker 1: One they sponsored this show, thank you very much. But
30:31
Speaker 1: number two, I actually use game Time to buy tickets.
30:34
Speaker 1: You guys have heard me talk about it so many times,
30:36
Speaker 1: as recently as telling my wife to buy tickets for
30:40
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Speaker 1: amazing product. They've got amazing last minute deals on all
30:49
Speaker 1: sorts of tickets, including pro and college football games. Speaking
30:53
Speaker 1: of which, I'm actually going to open game Time right
30:56
Speaker 1: now from my house. I'm looking at it I can
30:59
Speaker 1: see games. Look, I can go see the Jets next week,
31:03
Speaker 1: or I can go see the New York Knicks preseason
31:06
Speaker 1: basketball less than eighty bucks. I catu see the Brooklyn
31:10
Speaker 1: Nets preseason basketball for ten bucks. Whatever you need, no
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Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game time app. Get
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Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty
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Speaker 1: dollars off last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right,
31:35
Speaker 1: Week six, we're looking at some lines on bet three
31:38
Speaker 1: six five right now, Simon, I wrote some down that
31:40
Speaker 1: I thought might be early leans for US buys next week.
31:44
Speaker 2: Are the Packers.
31:45
Speaker 1: And the the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers.
31:50
Speaker 2: They're Juggernaut shut them down. First game.
31:54
Speaker 1: I looked at Titans plus four and a half hosting
31:58
Speaker 1: the Ravens'.
32:02
Speaker 4: It stinks, but I'll take it because I do think
32:04
Speaker 4: it's going to drop. But first glance, I'm just like why,
32:07
Speaker 4: and the why in the world is just so high
32:09
Speaker 4: that this should be three three and a half at
32:11
Speaker 4: most it's foreign, right, So I'll take the value and
32:14
Speaker 4: for me and chatter walk into a trap, will buy
32:16
Speaker 4: out of it. But I got to take that early
32:18
Speaker 4: value on Tennessee.
32:19
Speaker 2: But why do we think it would be that right now?
32:23
Speaker 3: I don't know.
32:24
Speaker 4: It's a weird line. I do not get it because
32:27
Speaker 4: I don't know all the respect given of this Ravens team.
32:29
Speaker 4: And yeah, Tennessee played bad, but that's kind of how
32:32
Speaker 4: divisional games go, right, And that's why I feel the
32:34
Speaker 4: same with the Ravens, where it's like maybe this is
32:38
Speaker 4: we're reacting to the Ravens and they're not as bad
32:40
Speaker 4: as we perceive right now, or it's Tennessee now as
32:43
Speaker 4: good as we perceive. But four and a half, that's
32:45
Speaker 4: that's a huge number for this Ravens team to be catching.
32:47
Speaker 4: So I'll walk into it right now with you chatd,
32:50
Speaker 4: I'll grab the four and a half.
32:51
Speaker 1: Well, I'm seeing it drop a little bit, so what
32:53
Speaker 1: do we think about? What do we think of it
32:55
Speaker 1: at four?
32:56
Speaker 4: Yes, still grabbing, Like to me, it should be three,
32:59
Speaker 4: Like that's that number makes sense here. So it's I'm
33:02
Speaker 4: happy it's dropping because at least the smart money's coming
33:04
Speaker 4: in on Tennessee. But like, what a weird number to
33:08
Speaker 4: hang by the sports book.
33:09
Speaker 2: It's so strange.
33:11
Speaker 1: I don't get it. I totally don't get it.
33:14
Speaker 3: Grab it, grab it.
33:15
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm hitting it right now because geez, Louise,
33:19
Speaker 1: that makes no sense.
33:20
Speaker 2: We love Rabel in this spot.
33:22
Speaker 1: And I will say, like Tannehill is getting the ball
33:24
Speaker 1: off faster than any player in the NFL right now,
33:27
Speaker 1: and when he's in, like DeAndre Hopkins was amazing today.
33:30
Speaker 1: So there were moments where it was not going to
33:32
Speaker 1: be easy to win that game. As an Indian in Indianapolis.
33:35
Speaker 1: Colts better, all right, another game. I looked at Denver
33:41
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half a Kansas City on Thursday night.
33:45
Speaker 3: We can do it. We always lose this bet. Though,
33:48
Speaker 3: we lose this bet every time.
33:50
Speaker 4: We make this bet every time, doesn't matter if it's Lock,
33:53
Speaker 4: doesn't matter, if it's Wilson.
33:55
Speaker 3: We bet.
33:55
Speaker 4: We bet every time I do the show with you chat,
33:57
Speaker 4: we take this number, and we somehow, we somehow always die.
34:02
Speaker 3: Yes.
34:02
Speaker 4: I don't know if em will have the numbers for
34:04
Speaker 4: us by Tuesday, but I promise you.
34:07
Speaker 3: We take this number every time.
34:09
Speaker 4: We take them here every time, and it just never
34:11
Speaker 4: works out for us, but we're suckers to it. I
34:13
Speaker 4: saw it too, and it's like the same massive number
34:16
Speaker 4: for a Thursday night on a short week.
34:21
Speaker 2: Like Mahomes does not cover this number.
34:24
Speaker 1: It's too big, I know, And honestly, it's entirely possible
34:28
Speaker 1: the number goes higher based on what's happening today.
34:33
Speaker 3: Yeah.
34:33
Speaker 4: I don't know if it goes higher though, because like
34:35
Speaker 4: the pros will take this again a ten and a half.
34:38
Speaker 3: Are you kidding me?
34:39
Speaker 4: This is insane. This number is insane. So we will
34:42
Speaker 4: take this number and we will lose this every time.
34:45
Speaker 3: Chat. It's just it's it's truly history repeat itself.
34:48
Speaker 4: Me and Chat can't help it. The books know it.
34:50
Speaker 4: The public gets fat off Mahome somehow every time it
34:53
Speaker 4: is a double digit favorite against Denver. I don't get it,
34:56
Speaker 4: but we have to. We have to bet the stumber
34:58
Speaker 4: number and I hate it.
35:00
Speaker 2: Look aheadline on this with seven.
35:03
Speaker 3: Oh shit, yeah, so that's insane.
35:07
Speaker 2: Come on, we're betting this game, all right?
35:11
Speaker 3: Sometimes Thank god, we can't put this in contest.
35:13
Speaker 1: Though, Oh god, no, there's no way, all right, what
35:17
Speaker 1: about Indy this week? And if I skip a game,
35:21
Speaker 1: if I get a game that, like you haven't thought
35:23
Speaker 1: about yet, please interrupt me.
35:24
Speaker 3: Now, I grabbed India five. It's running.
35:26
Speaker 4: It's already four and a half four at some books,
35:28
Speaker 4: so it's just another number I'm gonna grab now. Let
35:32
Speaker 4: the week play out, see who the quarterback is, and
35:34
Speaker 4: if it moves against being Chad, maybe we'll get out.
35:37
Speaker 4: But I'll just take the early value here on the
35:39
Speaker 4: Colts team that you know, Chad said it like there's
35:43
Speaker 4: there's a little bit of magic to this team. They
35:44
Speaker 4: just play really hard, They're really well coached. I don't
35:48
Speaker 4: really know if the Jaguars are good at They've just
35:51
Speaker 4: been in England for two weeks. Like this is just
35:53
Speaker 4: a really strange team that I'm not going to overreact
35:56
Speaker 4: to them beating the Bills today because a lot goes
35:58
Speaker 4: into that. The Bills just got out slow, kind of
36:00
Speaker 4: sawd you know, Josh Allen get it together by the
36:02
Speaker 4: second half.
36:03
Speaker 3: But it was just too late.
36:04
Speaker 4: So uh yeah, the grab the four and a half
36:06
Speaker 4: another game. We'll just grab it now if we need
36:09
Speaker 4: to go, buy out of the position. But this is
36:10
Speaker 4: one of the first bets I made before you jumped
36:12
Speaker 4: on a five.
36:14
Speaker 2: All right, Well, I'm glad I'm seeing the same thing
36:16
Speaker 2: as you are. Seattle plus three, Seattle plus three, who
36:23
Speaker 2: are they playing? I wrote the number down, but I forgot.
36:25
Speaker 3: To playing the Bengals.
36:27
Speaker 4: It's already gone, so we can keep it moving because
36:29
Speaker 4: I'll probably be at the Bengals at two and a half.
36:31
Speaker 4: But I got where youre coming from. I liked it
36:34
Speaker 4: at three, but it's already two and a half in
36:35
Speaker 4: a lot of books, so I might end up on Bengals.
36:37
Speaker 4: They just they looked like they got it right today
36:39
Speaker 4: with Joe and his deep ball to Jamar Chase.
36:41
Speaker 3: Looks so much better, all right.
36:43
Speaker 1: The last one that I was looking at, which made
36:45
Speaker 1: me sick, but I had to think about it for
36:47
Speaker 1: a second. New York Giants plus fourteen and a half
36:50
Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills.
36:55
Speaker 3: It's the same thing with Miami last week.
36:56
Speaker 4: When do I ever take a public team double digits
36:59
Speaker 4: getting ty be's a nine percent of the tickets?
37:01
Speaker 1: Never?
37:02
Speaker 4: But I just did with Miami because I just felt
37:04
Speaker 4: like the line was too overrated because the Giants defense.
37:07
Speaker 4: I don't think the books have caught up to it.
37:09
Speaker 4: I don't know if I don't think they know it
37:10
Speaker 4: a great. How banged up this team is offensively and defensively,
37:13
Speaker 4: so I can't get there. But when the hardest game
37:16
Speaker 4: isn't happen with right now, we'll just touch on it
37:17
Speaker 4: real quick. Yeah, is Cleveland forty nine ers? It's it's
37:20
Speaker 4: plus three for Cleveland?
37:22
Speaker 3: What the fuck? Like?
37:24
Speaker 4: Automatically, I bet the forty nine ers heer just in
37:27
Speaker 4: case they do blow out the Cowboys tonight, and this
37:29
Speaker 4: could easily get up to minus four. But another weird
37:34
Speaker 4: number spooks the hell out of me. Just thrown a
37:36
Speaker 4: little bit on the forty nine erser in case they
37:38
Speaker 4: do win big tonight. But the strangest number, like the
37:42
Speaker 4: respect they have for Cleveland right now is pretty obvious,
37:44
Speaker 4: Like yes, they're they're inviting you to come in right
37:47
Speaker 4: now and take forty nine ers, so be careful. I
37:49
Speaker 4: know it's a sucker is better now and walking into it.
37:51
Speaker 4: I'm just hoping me and chatter are right about tonight
37:54
Speaker 4: fortynineers winning cover the number goes up to four, then
37:56
Speaker 4: I have good value. But don't be shocked if me
37:59
Speaker 4: and Chatted up on Cleveland next week. It just it
38:01
Speaker 4: just looks like one of the games that will be
38:03
Speaker 4: an Island taking. But this is a stinky number of
38:06
Speaker 4: minus three right now. I'll take a little bit on
38:08
Speaker 4: this forty nine ers team.
38:09
Speaker 1: It's stinks, Simon, I'm telling you right now with stinks.
38:13
Speaker 1: So what I missed? Did I miss any of the
38:15
Speaker 1: lines that you might have hit already?
38:18
Speaker 3: Uh? No, one's gonna bet it.
38:23
Speaker 4: The only other bet I made so far is Tampa
38:25
Speaker 4: Bay box the plus three right now against the lines.
38:28
Speaker 4: It's just a fade off the lines of the most
38:29
Speaker 4: type team of football right now. I like to fay
38:32
Speaker 4: golf on the road after that kind of when outdoors.
38:36
Speaker 4: I fucking hate it too. I get it. You're just like,
38:38
Speaker 4: why am I doing this right now? You can wait
38:40
Speaker 4: if you want. I'm just grabbing a case the professional
38:42
Speaker 4: money comes in on it. But Tampa, it's a it's
38:45
Speaker 4: a nice home dog spot to fade this Lions team.
38:48
Speaker 3: So it sucks.
38:49
Speaker 4: I hate that we got to do it, but I'm
38:50
Speaker 4: taking the three right now just in case it drops down.
38:54
Speaker 1: No, you're right, I looked at that one and sort
38:56
Speaker 1: of ran over it and had I had that's hard.
39:00
Speaker 1: I had ulterior motives for it, partially because preview I'm
39:04
Speaker 1: thinking about something with the Lions for our film session
39:07
Speaker 1: for the Favorites, and I'm like, do I want to
39:12
Speaker 1: be talking about a team that I might want to
39:14
Speaker 1: be betting against on that? Yea? So so I was debating,
39:17
Speaker 1: like where am I going to land?
39:18
Speaker 2: So I wanted to figure that out. I want to
39:22
Speaker 2: figure that out first all.
39:23
Speaker 3: I think it's going to go up. Honesty, I think
39:24
Speaker 3: I'll go three and a half four if you want
39:27
Speaker 3: to wait.
39:27
Speaker 1: But I do want to wait. I mean, I liked
39:30
Speaker 1: the bucks here and I feel I just.
39:31
Speaker 3: Want people to understand that's a game we're probably going
39:33
Speaker 3: to be on.
39:34
Speaker 1: Yes, I one hundred percent agree, totally agree. All right,
39:38
Speaker 1: So just to be clear, we hit the Titans that
39:42
Speaker 1: was about four and a half, actually four running Denver,
39:48
Speaker 1: we hit a plus ten and a half, even though
39:50
Speaker 1: we know we're going to get killed, just for a
39:51
Speaker 1: little taste. Don't listen, it's Sunday night, don't overload. This
39:56
Speaker 1: is about getting the best of the number, right, and
39:58
Speaker 1: we're like, just know that you might have to play
40:03
Speaker 1: ugly numbers sometimes and we bet.
40:06
Speaker 4: And sometimes it doesn't even matter, Like Chad didn't get it,
40:08
Speaker 4: but I was on Arizona plus four and a half.
40:10
Speaker 4: I played back small in the Bengals of two and
40:12
Speaker 4: a half, but like my real bet was Cardinals four
40:14
Speaker 4: and a half, had a great number, felt great all week,
40:18
Speaker 4: got smashed. So it's like sometimes it doesn't matter if
40:20
Speaker 4: you get the best number.
40:21
Speaker 1: Right, and we like Indie plus five. I'm actually seeing
40:25
Speaker 1: some five and a half's out there, simon. So if
40:27
Speaker 1: you can get it, get it.
40:31
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