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Saudi Arabia urges US to press on with the Iran war · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon,
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  Speaker 1: has reportedly been urging President Trump to continue the war
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  Speaker 1: against Iran. That's according to The New York Times, signing
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  Speaker 1: people briefed by US officials. The report says Prince Mohammad
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  Speaker 1: argued that the US Israeli military campaign presented what he
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  Speaker 1: called a historic opportunity to remake the Middle East, and
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  Speaker 1: that Iran's government should be pushed toward collapse. Saudi officials
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  Speaker 1: deny that account, saying the kingdom supports a peaceful resolution
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  Speaker 1: and is focused on defending itself from Iranian attacks. Now,
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  Speaker 1: the report comes as Iranian strikes have hit Saudi oil infrastructure,
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  Speaker 1: raising concerns about the economic and security risks of a
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  Speaker 1: prolonged conflict. Let's bring in Marzad Borer Jarity. He's the
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  Speaker 1: vice provost at Missouri University of Science and Technology and
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  Speaker 1: a leading scholar of Iranian politics and foreign policy. Mares
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  Speaker 1: that welcome to the day. It's great to have you
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  Speaker 1: on the show. Let's start with a basis here. Why
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  Speaker 1: would Saudi Arabia be interested in the US ramping up
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  Speaker 1: attacks on Iran?
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  Speaker 2: Well, as we know these two countries have been archrival
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  Speaker 2: since the nineteen seventy nine revolution. Back in two thousand
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  Speaker 2: and eight, King Abdullah, who was the current Crown princess
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  Speaker 2: paternal uncle, He was reported to have told the American
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  Speaker 2: political establishment to cut off the head of the snake,
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  Speaker 2: referring to, of course, to the Iranian government. The two
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  Speaker 2: countries forged the approach mode in twenty twenty three thanks
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  Speaker 2: to the efforts of the Chinese, but this conflict really
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  Speaker 2: has not gone anywhere. Saudi Arabia has been urging the
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  Speaker 2: US to ramp up attacks on Iran as they are
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  Speaker 2: coming under attack from Iranian drones. And we remember back
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  Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen an Iranian missile attack on Saudi oil
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  Speaker 2: facilities really caused major, major damage for the Saudi So
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  Speaker 2: it seems to me that they are seeing a repeat
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  Speaker 2: of that scenario. And based on the principle of rent
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  Speaker 2: the superpower, the idea is that you allow the US
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  Speaker 2: to do the dirty world for you.
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  Speaker 1: What would a new regional order to MBS's liking look
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  Speaker 1: like if he really sees this as a historic opportunity.
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  Speaker 2: Well, you know, for imagine for the Saudis if they
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  Speaker 2: do not have to deal with an arch rival like
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  Speaker 2: Iran that has tried to undermine their policies in neighboring
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  Speaker 2: estates such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Gaza, et cetera.
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  Speaker 2: This really presents MBS with an opportunity to try to
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  Speaker 2: increase Saudi Arabia's influence throughout the Middle East.
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  Speaker 1: How do you think the war and the way it's
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  Speaker 1: being conducted or being perceived by Saudi leadership though?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think you know, no love is lost right
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  Speaker 2: for Iran in reality? Of course, seeing the Iran having
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  Speaker 2: his nose bloodied is welcome to use in reality. But
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  Speaker 2: you know, apparently from what we are hearing is that, uh,
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  Speaker 2: you know, this is not enough. What they are asking
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  Speaker 2: is really encouraging the United States to use ground forces
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  Speaker 2: to try to topple the regime, which is, you know,
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  Speaker 2: a position that is very close to that of the
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  Speaker 2: you know, Israelis in terms of uh, you know, getting
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  Speaker 2: rid of the Islamic Republic as a whole.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, But things as they stand right now, there's chaos
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  Speaker 1: in the region, there's no clear exit strategy. How does
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  Speaker 1: feel about that?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think you know, they are of course
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  Speaker 2: also worried about you know, the possible scenario of Iran
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  Speaker 2: becoming you know, a failed state next door to them.
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  Speaker 2: That is not a pleasant scenario for them either. Why
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  Speaker 2: because a you're talking about a vast country of ninety
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  Speaker 2: two million people. So you can imagine the flood of
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  Speaker 2: refugees that is going to go, you know, in every direction.
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  Speaker 2: You can imagine the political chaos. Keep in mind that
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  Speaker 2: ten to fifteen percent of the entire population of Saudi
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  Speaker 2: Arabia are Shiites that are you know, concentrated in the
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  Speaker 2: eastern part of the country, and of course Iran can
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  Speaker 2: cause mischief among the Shiai population of you know, Saudi
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  Speaker 2: Arabia if there is a conflict between the two states. Furthermore,
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  Speaker 2: imagine again if all the you know, the gloves come
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  Speaker 2: out right, how Iran can try to reverse an undermine
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  Speaker 2: some of the political successes that the Saudis have managed
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  Speaker 2: to gain over the last few years in places like
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  Speaker 2: Syria or Iraq. Furthermore, Furthermore, the Saudis are also worried
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  Speaker 2: about you know, another remaining a wild card in this
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  Speaker 2: whole conflict, and that is the entry of the Huties
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  Speaker 2: into this conflict, for which you know, they have been involved,
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  Speaker 2: as we know, in a war. Since twenty fifteen, things
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  Speaker 2: have died down a bit, you know, over the last
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  Speaker 2: few years, but there is always the possibility, and we
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  Speaker 2: are beginning to see such threads being articulated by the
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  Speaker 2: Huti leadership that you know, we can get involved in
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  Speaker 2: this conflict as well.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, so a lot to be nervous about on the
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  Speaker 1: part of MBS. How does this position in that regard
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  Speaker 1: differ from the position held in Israel, especially when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to the prospect of iron possibly becoming a failed state.
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  Speaker 2: Right so I think, you know, for the for the Israelis,
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  Speaker 2: you know, a failed state in Iran, actually it might
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  Speaker 2: be a good, good outcome, a good scenario for them.
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  Speaker 2: They are further away from Iran, you know, they consider
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  Speaker 2: Iran as an existential threat et cetera, et cetera, and therefore,
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  Speaker 2: you know, uh, disintegration of Iran or a regime change
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  Speaker 2: is the ultimate scenario that I think mister Natanyao is
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  Speaker 2: pursuing for the Saudis, being you know, geographically closer to Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and as I said already that the danger of a
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  Speaker 2: failed state in Iran is worrisome to them. You know,
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  Speaker 2: keep in mind again that much of the Saudi wealth
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  Speaker 2: is generated by you know, shipping oil right through these
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  Speaker 2: Persian Gulf et cetera, and therefore, you know, political chaos
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  Speaker 2: in Iran can come back to hit them in their pocketbooks.
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  Speaker 1: You said that there was an approach of rent superpower.
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  Speaker 1: Does that go both ways? Does the US maybe also
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  Speaker 1: have an approach of rent monarch? Because Donald Trump has
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  Speaker 1: called MBS a warrior and said that he is fighting
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  Speaker 1: with us, I'm quoting him here. Any idea what he
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  Speaker 1: means by that.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think what he's really referring to is that again,
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  Speaker 2: based on the reporting we are seeing, apparently MBS behind
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  Speaker 2: the scene is really quite gung co and encouraging you know,
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  Speaker 2: Trump to go on here. Yes, absolutely, I think this
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  Speaker 2: is a dialectical relationship between the two. We know that,
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  Speaker 2: you know, it has been a Saudi policy to to
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  Speaker 2: open up their you know, pocket books, uh, you know,
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  Speaker 2: and try to appease the White House of mister Trump
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  Speaker 2: by you know, financing various projects in the United States,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. You know, buying billions dollars of armaments from
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  Speaker 2: from the United States in the in this regard, so
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  Speaker 2: the Saudis use that card for leverage as best as
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  Speaker 2: they can. But look, they're also in this awkward position,
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  Speaker 2: meaning that you know, for the longest time, not just
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  Speaker 2: the Saudis, but all the smaller states of the Persian Gulf, Uae, Cutar, Bray, Kuwait,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. They have all counted on this protection of
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  Speaker 2: a US military umbrella. Right, but now we are beginning
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  Speaker 2: to see that this defensive umbrella is not really what
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  Speaker 2: it was, you know, portrayed to be. This far already
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  Speaker 2: has impacted fourteen different countries in the region. And therefore
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  Speaker 2: the question now is that once the guns fall silent, right,
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  Speaker 2: the question is what is going to best secure the
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  Speaker 2: security of these states for the long term. And it
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  Speaker 2: seems to me that they do not have too many
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  Speaker 2: patrons besides the United States to back them up.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I have one last question to you, because
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  Speaker 1: you know, the Saudi's reputation, security and economy is at
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  Speaker 1: stake here. Briefly, if you can, do you see them
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  Speaker 1: getting directly involved at some stage.
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  Speaker 2: As of right now? I don't think so. As I said,
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  Speaker 2: I think you know, the prospect of who t is
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  Speaker 2: entering the war is troublesome for them, and you know,
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  Speaker 2: if the reporting that we are hearing is correct. And
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  Speaker 2: again Secretary Rubio today was talking about this war lasting
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  Speaker 2: weeks rather than months, right, So the Saudis have to
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  Speaker 2: be worried about the President Trump declaring victory and leaving, right,
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  Speaker 2: And if they get involved in this war, next door neighbor,
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  Speaker 2: you know, physically, is not going to go away, and
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  Speaker 2: they have to deal with the challenge of Iran for
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  Speaker 2: years and years to come. Where's that?
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  Speaker 1: Berjerdy, Vice Provost at Missouri University of Science and Technology.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Fascinating speaking to you today. Thank you.