Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Playoffs Begin | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/18/26

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Saturday BEST BETS | Playoffs Begin | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/18/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this, Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Arch hate? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man's back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the Slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up? Everybody's towed back with you, toadstool Sports.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: It is April eighteenth, Saturday. Thanks everybody who hung out
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: for the bracket specials last night. Couldn't get a hold
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of Clint, but I did my solo bracket specials. I
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: filled out the NHL and the NBA can go check
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: it out. I think I'm satisfied with them. I don't know,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: we'll see. I mean, the NHL is usually chaos, so
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I think do a decent job kind of fading the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: what the public thinks, except kind of agreeing with them
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: in the NBA, but I think they're actually not putting
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: enough weight into kind of how good some of these
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: better teams are in the NBA against some of the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: other teams. So NBA tends to be pretty chocky with
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: these long, serious, big spreads. You know whatever, we went
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: three and oh here on the show yesterday. I'm gonna
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: try to make this a quicker show because I gotta
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: get it out of here and get my face tortured
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: at the dentist, which I absolutely hate. It's gonna be terrible.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I know already it's gonna go horribly. We have I'm
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: only gonna give out one play on the show, and
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: it's in baseball, which you can guess based on the odds.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping the game ones in the NHL NBA Sometimes
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I do. I mean, I'll tell you what my opinions are,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: but a lot of times I'll skip it. I'll wait
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: to see what outliers happen in game one, and then
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: come back and play game two, fade the outlier that
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: happened in game one. You know, that's kind of that
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: tends to be my approach, the zig zag or the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: situational zigzag, whatever we want to call it, the selective zigzag.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Really don't like the baseball board today very much, either,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: But I think I have one play that is hopefully
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: gonna get us a win. Really risky. I'm not risky,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: but you know, I mean easily you could have a loss.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: When you have one play on a particular day, it
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: could be a losing day, you know, speaking of which
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: we were on a twenty eight ten and one run.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: You're over the last fourteen days now. We won all
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: three plays. Last night we had that first five under
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: or yesterday, I should say first five under Royals Yankees
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: that got there. The Yankees had a two to nothing
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: lead after five. The whole the full game went under
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: as well. I think it was a four to two
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Yankee win. The full game maybe would have gotten a
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: little bit risky if it went into extra innings because
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: of the stupid ghost runner, but it was definitely an
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: undergame Saint Louis Houston. You could kind of feel like
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: that over was gonna be correct right away. Like Saint
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Louis was only winning one nothing into I think the
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: third inning maybe, but they had well, they had one
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: run on four hits in like the first inning. I
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: don't know how they only got one run out of that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: But then yeah, the floodgates open and I think Saint
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Louis wound up winning that game. What was it like
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: nine to five or something. So we definitely got the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: over there. And then Phoenix pretty easy win in NBA
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: as well. So both of my side opinions were correct
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: in the NBA last night, Phoenix did not implode for once.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Golden State did not have another miracle comeback in them.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Phoenix was actually able to hold the lead, put it
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: away at the end. Got a little bit chippy Draymond
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Green I think it was with Devin Booker. They gotten
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: a fight right near the end of the game. The
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: game was over at that point, but they both got
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: ejected with I don't know, less than a minute left
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: in the game. It was stupid, less than a minute
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: left in the game. Whatever. Yeah, Phoenix was at least
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: able to put it away in that one. All right,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: we'll move on to today. Let's get into it. Man,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: don't want to take too long with the show. I
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: think we'll be it'll be fine with this show. We'll
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: probably go about an hour and baseball and then we
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: could get through the playoffs, hopefully playoffs. All right, we
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: have Kansas City at the Yankees. Is the first game up.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: A lot of afternoon baseball. It is Saturday, so tends
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: to be a decent amount of afternoon action here. A
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: lot of these games on MLBtv, pretty much all of
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: them are actually I think that is usually the case. Anyway,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: The Yankees won yesterday. Like I said, I think it
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: was four to two. Look at the bullpen usage. The
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday, the Royals used two. Yankees.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I think do just have the better bullpen though just
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Royal's bullpen is just stunk. They're actually dead last in
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: whip now. They've managed to fall behind the Houston Astros,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: even after the Astros were pretty disastrous yesterday. Yeah, this
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: is not a good bullpen right now, even though I
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: expected a lot better out of Casey's bullpen. The Yankees
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: haven't been great. They're twentieth in bullpen Whip right now,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: but better than the Royals. Yankees do have the better offense,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: even though I think the Royals have actually potentially hit
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: better than Where are the Royals at? I was gonna say,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I thought the Royals may have actually done a little
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: bit better than the Yankees offensively so far. Yankees are
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: at sixteenth, but I think we know they have the
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: better offense. No, the Royals are twenty seventh. Uh, they're
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: definitely behind them. Still getting the lay of the land here, man,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Yankees have those advantages there. Starting pitching, you
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: could make the argument there is an advantage on Kansas
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: City side here with Noah Cameron pitching. Pretty talented young
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: pitcher did pretty well last year in his rookie season
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: three point nine to four ERA, one point two to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: five whip. That whip you'd like to see maybe being
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower there. He struggled in his last outing.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: He was good in his first two outings. Had a
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: bit of an issue last time out, which might not
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: be a good thing. The fact that it was against
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the White Sox were a FUTUREID offense, so that's not
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: a great sign. He got taken out, didn't throw that
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: many pitches though. Maybe we could make the argument that
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: was a blip though, and he'll bounce back here. I
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: think we still don't know that he's in like some
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: prolonged bad form or anything like that. He's gonna be
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit more rested, maybe in bounce back mode
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: here he has. His numbers against the Yankees are hard
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: to gauge. Uh seventeen at bats against him isn't a
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: ton five to two strike out walk ratio is not great,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: but not awful. One seventy six average a lot is good.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed three hits. The problem is they're all
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: extra base hits. So he's allowed an eight to fifty
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: one OHPS to them with a Chisholm double and then
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: home runs from Judge of course and Wells. I don't
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: know how we gauge that. Man, It's difficult to say
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: how Cameron is gonna do in this game, which I
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: have a hard time figuring this game out. Will Warren
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Yankees. He's not that bad dude,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: like he does have decent strikeout stuff. Last year he
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: was significantly better at home than on the road, even
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: though this is a hitter friendly park here. He's got
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers this year so far. Really, a two
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: point four to five vrora one point two to five
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: whip is not horrible, twenty to six strikeout walk ratio,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: and the one hit all out per inning is pretty good.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: It's a good strikeout rate. Maybe a couple too many
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: walks in eighteen and a third innings, but he's been good.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: He hasn't gone deep into games, though, so that may
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: be an issue that that means the Yankees bullpen is
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: probably gonna come in for a decent extent in this game.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: He's failed to go five innings in three of his
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: four outings, so that's not good even though he hasn't
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: even pitched that badly. His numbers against the Royals are
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: good and seventeen at bats both pitchers of allot of
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: three for seventeen clip. But the difference is Warren has
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: allowed no extra base hits to the to the Royals,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, no walk, so one seventy six average three
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: fifty three oh ps. So you could make the argument
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: that Warren does actually have the pitching edge year, and
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: he does pitch better at home. The Yankees are probably
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: the right side here. They're up for minus one forty
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: five to minus one seventy though you're having to lay
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: a big price on them eighty two percent of the tickets,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash. That's probably not accurate.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I don't really see a great angle that I can
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: find here because I think it's just difficult to figure
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: out what you're actually gonna get out of these starting pitchers.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So I think you kind of want to fade the bullpens.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: The money's coming out on the under. There is maybe
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: an argument to be had for a first five inning under.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to deal with the bullpens but sixty
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: six percent of tickets on the over fifty four percent
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Total did drop from
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to eight money, indicating on the under,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: there is definitely a world where both these pitchers pitch
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: well enough to accomplish the first five under, probably looking
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: at about a four. Maybe you could. I don't know
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: if maybe even you can find a four and a
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: half on them. Maybe that's the best angle of attack
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: in that game. But I don't love the game at all.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Jaymin what's up. Good to see you again. Royals five
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: game losing streak. Yeah, good point. They're bad on the road.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Two and eight on the road. Yeah yeah. I think
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the Yankees probably win this game. But I don't really see.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I don't the price, like, I don't know if you've
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: been laying that price on the money line seems a
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: little crazy if you really want it, Like if you
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: forced me to give you a side, I would say,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: make like a minus one run line or find a
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: minus one run line with the Yankees. But I don't
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: love it. Cincinnati at Minnesota. Minnesota didn't win yesterday. I
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: thought they would win. With Joe Ryan on the mount,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: he basically did his part, but Minnesota's offense went completely
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: cold in that game. They've been cold really the last
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: couple of games, except for the ninth inning against the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, they put up some runs when the game
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: was already over. Minnesota not a good bullpen. These three
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday as well. Cincinnati used more. Cincinnati used four,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: so might be a situation where maybe you want to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: fade the bullpen's here. Minnesota's bullpen is bad, their fourth
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: worst in WHIP. Not a good era either. Cincinnati has
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: actually had a decent bullpen this year. They're in the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: middle of the pack right now, pretty decent numbers, but
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: you know, the rest scenario is not totally great. Minnesota's
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: been the better offense this year ninth in OPS, even
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: though I don't fully buy into their offense being that good.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: The Reds offense has been so bad that they actually
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: fell behind the White Sox and into last place. They
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: have the lowest batting average and OPS right now, unbelievable,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: below a two hundred batting average, really really crazy stuff
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: because they do have better talent than that on their offense.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Andrew Abbot, his pitcher for Cincinnati, his numbers, they're not
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: good this year. I think he is better than this
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: though five point eight five VRA one point seven whip
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: bad numbers. He's not really a guy that blows hitters away,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: but usually he is a guy that comes out there
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: and locates his pitch as well and does alright. Really,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: his numbers are kind of being skewed because his last
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: outing was really bad against Anaheim. But he's not in
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: good form right now, dude. Overall, he has way too
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: many walks twelve to eight strike a walk ratio that's
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: not good in twenty innings twenty six hits, allowed too
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: many hits as well. So yeah, just overall, his numbers
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: really aren't good, although yes they're being skewed by that
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: seven run three inning performance against Anaheim, but the strike
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio is a concern. His numbers against the
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Twins are really bad, although it's only in sixteen at bats,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: but in that small sample size they've killed him five
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: sixty two batting average allowed, sixteen fifty one ohps. That's
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: pretty alarming, a three to one strike out walk ratio. Again,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: it is a very small sample size. You don't want
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to weigh that too heavily, but his numbers do not
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: look good against Minnesota, and he's not in good form
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: going up against Taj Bradley, who has been the better
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: pitcher this year. Bradley, maybe Minnesota's found something with him. Man,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: he He's always had good stuff. It's just that I
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: don't know. His walks have been kind of an issue
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: and Tampa Bay wound up getting rid of him. He's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: looked pretty good so far this year one point two
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: five ERA and one point two five whip, although obviously
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: that whip indicates that his ERA should be higher than this.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: He's been pret good though He's allowed one or fewer
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: earned runs in every single Stars. He's won his last
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: three Stars, and Minnesota has won all four games that
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: he started. Twenty nine to eight. Strike out walk ratio
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. Fewer than one hit per inning allowed
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: is also good. The number of walks is high. He
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: did walk four guys in his last nime and we
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: got a win with that game. By the way, in
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the first five innings, I think against Toronto maybe we
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: got away with something there because he did put way
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base there. But the offense really
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: did their part in that game and blew up Max
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Schurz dur in that game, So we did get the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: win on that A little bit lucky. From the Bradley
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: side of things, I think we still were right about
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that regardless. But you know, he might be falling into
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: his old bad habits of walking too many guys though.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: That does concern me a little bit. And Cincinnati has
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers off him in a small sample size.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: The only five hitters have seen him twenty two at bats,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: ten to one, strike out, walk ratio three eighteen, batting
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: average allowed, nine to thirty nine ohps. Those numbers are
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. I worry about this game, man. I lean
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Minnesota slightly. I think maybe they will finally have a
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: bounce back here. I think you could clearly you could
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: make the argument that Bradley is in better form right
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: now and actually does still have better matchup numbers. As
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: bad as those numbers are. Minus one thirty is the
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: number on Minnesota right now, down for minus one forty
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: three eighty percent of the tickets ninety seven percent of
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the cash on Minnesota. So the money somewhat indicating on Minnesota,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: even though they are public, the over looks like it's
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: getting some action. Seventy six percent of tickets ninety eight
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, I don't really
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: disagree with the over. I mean, both starting pitchers have
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: bad numbers against these opposing lineups. Abbott in bad form,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are either used up right now or bad so.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And it's a hitter No, it's not hitter friendly ballpark.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: It's in Minnesota. But yeah, I mean I wouldn't disagree
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: with an over in that game. Really, probably slightly in
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: towards Minnesota there and slightly towards the over. I don't
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: even know which one I think is better, to be honest. Yeah,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota team total over. They're decent against lefties. It does
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: make sense their numbers are good against abb but he's
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: been really struggling so far. I wouldn't disagree with that.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: With Minnesota to have a bit of a resurgence on offense,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: although I really I don't think Minnesota's offense is as
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: good as they looked so far this season though they're
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: in kind of rebuilding mode. Really, yeah, the Twins won
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: seven of their last ten. I don't really buy that though, Like,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as that, and like
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: a couple of those wins against the Red Sox were
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: pretty much complete bullshit, so you had just Crochet complete implosion.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: And then I think in the next game there was
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: just some weird I forget what it was. Something weird
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: happened in the game after that. I think it was
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: some close game. I don't know, I forget exactly what
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: it was. Mets at the Cubs. The Mets are still
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: on a losing streak. The Mets have lost what nine
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: ten games. Now, I don't know what this is. They
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: got blown up yesterday twelve to four. But if you
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: look at that box score, it's interesting because both teams
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: had fourteen hits, so this game was not as lopsided
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: as the final score makes. It look like you rarely
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: see teams tie in hits and have that much of
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a blowout like and the walks weren't really that much
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: of an issue here either. Well, I'd have to look
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: into the box score, but I'm pretty sure the walks
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: weren't really anything insane in this game. So very very
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: strange that, like most of the Chicago base runners came
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: around to score, the Mets stranded like all their base
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: runners in that game. But I think that might give
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: you a little bit of value on the Mets in
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: this game here, although the Cubs are only a very
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: small favorite here. But the Mets weren't as bad as
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: they looked yesterday. The Cubs were not as good as
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: they looked yesterday. The Mets are. I'm gonna talk about
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: it in a minute, but the Mets do have a
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: starting pitching advantage in this game, so maybe this is
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: finally the game where they're actually able to do something.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Looking at the bullpen usage here, Mets only used two
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Manaia came in and ate up a bunch
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: of innings yesterday, so their better relievers are pretty much
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: available here, so that's good for the Mets. Both bullpens
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: have been decent this season as well. The Cubs used
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday, so their bullpen is in slightly
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: less good of shape here, but still not bad because
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: it was a blowout game yesterday. But yeah, both bullpens
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: have been alright. The clubs have had a good offense
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: by the way. The Cubs struggled offensively early on, but
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: their recent explosions have moved them all the way up
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: to sixth offensively, and that's the edge they have here.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Is the Mets offense has not hit well, although they've
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: been dealing with injuries. I mean, you know that the
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Mets have a better lineup than this though they're third
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: worst in ops in all baseball right now. But I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: really think they're gonna come around like the clubs have
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: started coming around. I think both these offenses are pretty talented,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: and like I said, both bullpens have been decent. They're
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: running thirteenth and fourteenth Cubs Mets respectively. That's not bad.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta, though, might be where we have the biggest
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: edge here with the Mets. He's good man. They brought
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: him over from the Brewers this year. He's been pitching
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: pretty well this year too. Three point eight six ERA,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: one point one four whip. He's only allowed more than
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: one run once this month so far, twenty five to
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: eight strike out walk ratio, fewer than one hit a
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: lot per inning, sixteen hits in twenty one innings. None
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: of that is bad. Pretty good numbers out of him
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. He has good numbers in a massive
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: two hundred five at bats sample size, because they're of
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: course very familiar with them because he was in their division.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: But that familiarity has not led to success. Seventy four
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: to twenty six strike out walk, Razio, those are just
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: big numbers. It's probably a few too many walks, but
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: he's held them to a one to seventy one batting
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: average and six fourteen ops. The ten home runs allowed
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad considering it's a massive amount of at bats.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Ian Happ has three home runs, but he's
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: only four for thirty seven off him, and Bush has
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: three home runs but he's only three for twenty So yeah,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: per Alta, Yeah, he's allowed some home runs there, but
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: he's been good against the Cobs man in general, and
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty good this year. You're on first five
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: under in which game under eight and a half? In
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: which game eight and a half would be a full
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: game total? Which games do you want? Well? Was I
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: gonna say? Oh? Yeah, James a tie on his pitching
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: for the Cobs. He has been okay this year. Uh.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: I think he's just too much of a fly ball
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: pitcher man. It's a little bit of an issue. But
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: four point eight six ERA right now, one point two
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: to six whip those numbers aren't too bad and they're
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: being skewed by one start where you gave up six
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: runs against Pittsburgh and his last outing, but it was
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: because he allowed three home runs. But it was in
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Wrigley Field, which is where he is today too. You know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the fly balls are definitely concerned with him. He got
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: unlucky in that game. That you got to say, because
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: he only allowed six hits, two walks, and had ten strikeouts.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Those numbers are not bad and went six innings, but
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the three home runs blew his startup. But yeah, he
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: was definitely unlucky there. Did throw one hundred pitches though,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: so maybe he's gonna be a little bit tired coming
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: into this. His numbers against the Mets are not great.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: In one hundred and forty eight bats, he does have
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: a really impressive forty one to three strike out walk ratio.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: But yet again the problem is they've taken him for
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of power. Two ninety three batting average, allowed
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: eight sixty five ops, seven home runs, allowed, sixteen doubles.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: So he gets knocked around by these Mets hitters. Typically,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to the Mets, you know, yeah, I
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: probably would go full game on this actually because I
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: was thinking, you know, I don't know if there's really
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge one way or the other here. The
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest seems to be fine for the Mets here,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: maybe even actually a slight advantage to them because they
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: use Manaia to eat up those innings. I like the
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Mets in this game, but the money is indicating on
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. After the Cubs initially dropped from minus one
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: thirty eight tons one seven. I don't know if there
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: was a pitching change or if money came in and
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: drove that number down now only to grab the Cubs
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: at the smaller number. Because we have sixty two percent
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Mets eighty nine percent of
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Cubs, so the market read is
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: all over the Cubs. It looks like there's a huge
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: cash versus tickets split in the direction of the Cubs.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with it, though I like the Mets
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: in this game. What can I tell you, man, I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: disagree with the market a lot in the in baseball.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: One of my disagreements yesterday was an easy win with
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: the Giants yesterday, although I did not add that to
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: my card. But yeah, you're on under in this game.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know Man, I could see the argument for it.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't like tie ons. Like my
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: hesitation would be James to die on. As far as
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: going under in this game, I think, you know, he
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: does have a tendency to give up some long balls.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Although the fact that the total is not that high,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: it's at eight and a half, it does the wind
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: is probably not really a factor in this game though,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: So the wind is at least not blowing out in
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: this game, so that might help with the under there.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good read on the total the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: money's indicating on the over in that game. For what
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: that's worth, seventy one percent of tickets eighty six percent
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over in that game. San
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Francisco at Washington, Washington in the return home spot yesterday.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: That was one of the reasons I liked San Francisco
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: in that game. Plus, I thought Logan web pretty big
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: pitching edge in that game kind of madded an added
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: to my card, but it is what it is. Man.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Also sar Francisco has the better bullpen. Washington's bullpen is
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: not good, but yeah, San Francisco got the win. A
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: lot of times when a team returns home from a
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: road trip and they have a bad game there because
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: they get distracted being back home. Whatever. A lot of
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: times they will do better in the next game. So
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Washington might do better coming into this game. But there
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: are a lot of concerns with Washington. Their bullpen is
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: very bad. They use three relief pitchers today as well,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: which isn't horrible, but their bullpend is just horrible. San
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Francisco used three as well. Looking at who these guys
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: have in the bullpen, San Francisco's clearly the better bullpen,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: even though they're kind of middle of the pack right now.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Washington is in the bottom several bullpens. Washington has been
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: good offensively so far. Shockingly, they're at fifth in OPS
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: and the Giants offense has struggled. They're at a twenty fifth,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: so you got to give Washington an offensive edge here.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching is really kind of difficult to figure out
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: in this game. This game obviously, you know, I only
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: have one play today and being very selective, and this
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: game is not it either. Adrian Hauser is pitching for
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: the Giants. He's been a journeyman man. He's been around.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I think he was on multiple different teams last year.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: He actually pitched decently for the most part last year.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: His numbers aren't very good this year though, five point
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: zero six CRA one point five to six whip not
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: good numbers. He's definitely struggled a bit here. Just really
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: not good numbers overall, ten to five strike out walk
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: ratio with twenty hits allowed in sixteen innings. Giants have
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: lost all three of the games that he's appeared in
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: so far. I'm not sure if all of them are
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: actually starts or not, but yeah, his strikeout rate is
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: down way too many hits allowed, the walk number isn't terrific.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Really not good numbers from him so far, but he
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: does have pretty good numbers against Washington again, it's a
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: three for seventeen with a double from Abrams. But overall
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size, but one seventy six batting
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: average allowed, five thirty five ohps, five to three strike
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. Again, it is pretty hard to gauge
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen here from a small sample like that.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: Kde Cavally is pitching for Washington, still a young pitcher,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't really panned out so far, and his
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: numbers are not good this year either. Four point six
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: ERA one point seven to whip. That whip is really high.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: That's not good. His last outing he got really blown up.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: He's only made it past five innings once so far
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: this season. Washington's lost his last restarts. His thirteen to
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeout walk ratio is really bad. And fifteen and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings along with fifteen hits allowed. That's way
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: too many walks. He hasn't been good, man, Giants have
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: never seen him before. And I do talk about how
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: when these young pitchers are unfamiliar to the opposing lineups,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: especially a weak lineup like this, a lot of times
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the pitcher does have an advantage. But I don't know
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: if I see it, Man, I would not want to
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: have my money on Cavali here. I think Houser is
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: the better of these two pitchers here. He's obviously the
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: more proven picture. The money is indicating on San Francisco,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: even though you could make the argument situationally it should
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: be a bounce back spot for Washington. I don't know
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: about it, Man. Fifty percent of ticket, sixty seven percent
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Giants. I'll probably agree Giants here,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: just based on the matchup. I think they do have
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: the better pitching throughout this game, and over does make
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: sense as well. The total has already gone up through
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: kind of that key number nine. It's off the nine
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: now up to a nine and a half. So there
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: does look like there is some money on the over
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: here eighty three percent of tickets ninety eight percent of
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. It makes sense. Both starters
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: pretty questionable here, one really bad bullpen. Probably the over
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: is actually the better way to approach this game generally,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: although starting pitching again, it is possible to starting pitchers
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: both do well here too, though, because it's just this
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: game is a big time mystery. No, you gotta listen
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: to me, man, listen to my show. I could have
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: kept you off of the Nats game. There they were
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip Logan Web versus whoever
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: the hell was starting for the Nats. There were definitely
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: some pretty major advantages for the Giants in that one,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: even though the market was disagreeing with it. You're not
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: betting it, Yeah, that's team total over. They have seven
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: lefties in their lineup. Howsers bad against lefties, all right,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Howsers numbers are not that bad against those specific hitters
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: they have, though I could see the argument for it.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, has been a good offense so far. I
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know if I would really want
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: to do that though, but there are definitely arguments to
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: be made that it will be a higher scoring game.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: I think you might actually be able to make the
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: argument for a San Francisco team total there, but they're
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: gonna have to score a lot there. Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: This is actually my game, and it is one of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the TV games sort of because then he has to
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: be an unlimited game Drew Rasmus and versus Paul Skins.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: You might be able to guess where I'm going with
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: this game. And I know the number is a little
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: bit dicey here. I know that like one bad inning
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: can kind of ruin this thing. But we are gonna
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: go with the first five under in this game under
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't want to deal with
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: the bullpens here, especially because Tampa's bullpen has been pretty bad,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna go with the starting pitching matchup, which
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I think is it should be good enough that we
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: can get this done. That is, at least the hope here.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think we can get it done here. Man,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh did get the win yesterday. I did like Pittsburgh yesterday.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: I think we did get a good start out of
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler yesterday in that one. So I was correct
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: about the Pittsburgh lean in yesterday's game. As far as
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage yesterday, Pittsburgh used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: which you know, normal usage pretty much. Tampa Bay used two.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: But Tampa Bay's bullpen has really struggled this season. They're
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: twenty fourth in Whip bullpen Whip, which is not good.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is middle of the road seventeenth and Whip their
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: era looks a little bit better than that. Pittsburgh's bullpen
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: is better, but not by a ton. But Tampa's bullpen
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: has been bad enough that I want to just throw
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: them out of this equation here. You could go full
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: game totally be getting under seven. So it is still
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: on that key number seven, but I prefer this first
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: half under here, first five inning under well, we'll get
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: the advantage of the starting pitchers while they're out there. Man.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: As far as the hitting is concerned, yeah, Tampa has
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: hit pretty well, their tenth in offense, but they're going
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: up against Paul Skeens, and I don't think Tampa's offense
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: is this good. They kind of have a hole in
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the bottom third of their lineup too, so I don't
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: really think they're as good as they've looked so far.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's offense has been even better actually though seventh. But again,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I like good pitching to counteract good hitting, and the
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: fact that the hitting has been good enough so far
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: this year from both teams, I think that's actually keeping
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: this total a little bit higher than maybe it even
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: should be with this pitching matchup. Drew Rasmussen is good dude,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: timpa Bay. They know how to use him. They literally
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: just have him go out there and throw exactly five
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: innings every game, and that's what we want. Five innings.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: We're going first five innings here. That's what they do.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: They keep him fresh, They go go out there, get
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: us five good innings, and then we'll turn it over
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: to the bullpen. Although last year their bullpen was good,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: this year it's not, although I think their bullpen will
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: wind up being better. But Rasmussen has been good this
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: year one point one to three Era point five to
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: six whip. Obviously this can't continue. And yeah, you do
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: have to worry a little bit about a letdown, I
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: guess because he's coming off a six inning, one hit,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: shutout win against the Yankees, seven strikeouts, no walks. But overall,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: this is impressive stuff out of him. Overall, three of
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: his outings, sixteen innings pitch. They actually let him go
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: six innings in that game, so my mistake, but whatever.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: He didn't throw many pitches at all. He was extremely
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: efficient in that game. Seventy six pitches. That's good to see. Man.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: A lot of times these pitchers, when they rack up strikeouts,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: they won't be efficient with their pitches, but he was,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: so he's not gonna be burned out or anything. After
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: seventy six pitches, seventeen to one strikeout, walk ratiume, sixteen innings,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: eight hits allowed. Good numbers out of him Man, and
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, pretty good numbers here as well. They haven't
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: really seen much of him either. They only have five
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: hitters who have faced him before. They're only three for
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: thirteen off him, no extra base hits, two strikeouts, no walks,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: two thirty one average allowed, very low four to sixty
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: two oh ps. It's a small sample, but also I
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: think the unfamiliarity might help Rasmus in here as well,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: So on his end of things, I think we're looking
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: pretty good. But of course I think we're expecting Paul's
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: skeens to actually carry us through this under, like he
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: needs to carry more of the weight in this under,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: and he's fucking Paul skins Man. I think he can
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: do it here against what I think is kind of
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: an overrated Tampa Bay lineup. He's got a four ERA
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: so far, but we know that his numbers are being
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: skewed from that first start. He got absolutely blown up
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: in that first start. I think they actually should have
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: left him in longer. But since then he's been fine.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Point nine to four whip that's good, a sub one whip,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: eighteen to seven strike out walk ratio isn't great, but
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: his walk numbers started to go down a little bit
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: as well. He's coming off three outings where he's gone
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: at least five and he's allowed one on and run
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: in each. He's Paul skins Man. He's fine, and they
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: have not overworked him yet either. He's thrown at most
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: eighty eight pitches and then even starts so far, so
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: he's actually been pretty efficient getting through these starts as well.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed ten hits in eighteen innings. We don't
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: have to go through it all. We know Skeens is
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: really good against Tampa Bay thirty one at batsh They
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: have a one sixty one average against him, four to
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: ninety three oh ps, five to three strike out walk
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: ratio is not great, but the rest of these numbers
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: are really good except yond Diaz is pretty good against
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: him three for six with a home run, but the
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: rest of their lineup has done no damage against him
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: pretty much. Uh So, yeah, I think schemes should be
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: good on his end too. We're going first five under here.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: As I already said, the total has actually gone up,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: so you might be able to find a better number
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: on this. It looks like the full game is headed
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: towards seven and a half. The money is coming in
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: on the under still though, even though the total has
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: been driven up a bit. I think maybe it was
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a move just to try to get that onto that
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: key number there so that betters can come in on
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the under. But it looks like the money is supporting
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: the under here, and obviously I just gave you the
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: reasons why, uh, seventy six percent of tickets on the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: over sixty eight percent of the cash on the under money.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Agreeing with me here, we're gonna limit it to first five,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: like I said, the three and a half. If you
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: can find a four, you might have to pay more
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: for it. Obviously, maybe you could do that as well.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: But I think we'll be okay here. Hopefully, let's get
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: it done. Man. That's the only play here of the day.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Three point five is sharp. It's a good number. Like
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: you know, the books just don't mess around with the
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: first fives. Really, they like always they put it'll be
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: a three and a half or a four in almost
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: every game, which is why I was pretty surprised to
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: see the four and a half out there at the
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: price that it was out there. That was at the
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Roman Emperor's Book was the only place that had a
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: price that good on it yesterday. But you could have
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: gone under four and still gotten the win with that
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: play yesterday, and that under in that Yankees game. First
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: five and you're tailing that one all right. Hell yeah,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: hopefully I can get it right because I've been hot,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: as you can see, and this is my only play
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: of the day. So I'm trying to be really selective here.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Seems too obvious to go under in a Skins game,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: but you know, it is what it is, man, I
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: mean there is also a reason for that. I want
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: to keep this moving here, though. Man, got to get
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: through a lot of these games here, and I gotta
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: leave and still take a shower. All right. I was
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: gonna say one more thing. I forget what it was though.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you could have gotten like in that game
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I gave out yesterday. You could have gotten like an
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: under four and a half of minus won twenty two,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: which would have been I think fine as well. Maybe
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a higher price, but not too bad.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: White Sox at the A's. The White Sox actually came
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: out with some offense yesterday in this very offensive friendly
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: park here in Sacramento, this horrible Triple A Stadium. The
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: White Sox won the game in a blowout pretty much.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: They won nine to two. So hey, the White Sox
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: offense finally did something. Maybe that's a decent sign. There's
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: still bad, there's still second worst offense. So we're not
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: gonna We're not gonna change our opinion on them. Really,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the A's are the better offense. They have way more
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: talent in their offense. They haven't really taken off yet.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: They're only twenty fourth. But I think the A's offense
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty decent as they were last year. The
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: A's bull is not good. They used two relievers yesterday,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: which isn't bad, but and White Sox only used one.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: But these are very untrustworthy bullpens. The A's are twenty
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: sixth the White Sox are twenty eighth in bullpen whip
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: bad stuff there. Starting pitching kind of gets interesting here
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Eric FEddi last year, he was like a total fade
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: pretty much throughout the season last year, and I think
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: he was really really bad when he was at home
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: last year. He's of course not at home here and
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: he's on a different team, and he's pitched well this
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: season so far. But he's pitching in the A's stadium,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: and I looked to see if he pitched in the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: stadium last year. He did not, so he has never
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: pitched in the stadium before. That might not be a
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: good thing. Man. I still don't know if we can
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: really trust him. His numbers are pretty good this year though,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Really the offense has not given him any help here.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Three point three eighty RA, one point six whip, Yeah,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: those are good numbers. Twelve three strike out walk ratio,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that's fine. Strikeout rate not really high, but he hasn't
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: put too many men on base. Fourteen hits at six innings, Yeah,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: all pretty good for Fetti. He's actually gotten a little
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: bit better in each start too. Maybe it's not gonna
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: go as well here against the A's though in this stadium,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: A's only Jeff McNeil has ever faced him though, so
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: he is unfamiliar to them. But he's been around for
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: so long that there's a lot of game film on him.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much of an advantage the
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity is really gonna be for him. And Jeff McNeil
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: has absolutely like kind of like destroyed him. I guess
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I will say seven for eighteen of the double off
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: him three walks, one strike out in a couple of
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: RBIs three eighty nine average is what that is in
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: eight ninety nine ops. But it's only one hitter. One
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: hitter destroys him. The rest of the lineup hasn't faced him. Still,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Fetti might not do well here. Luis Severino also might
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: not do well here. He's off to a bad start
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: to the season. Five point five nine ERA one point
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: seven to one whip. Last year he was good on
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: the road and really bad in this stadium at home.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: But he's in this stadium at home. We faded him
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: in his last game at home here. We did get
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: the win with that. I think it was with Texas.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: We got an easy win with Texas with Eovaldi easily
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: out pitching seven Reno. Seven Reno Actually wasn't that bad
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: in that outing. He managed to get six innings in
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: it into that outing. Did walk too many guys though,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: three walks, six hits, allowed seven strike outs, four and runs.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: That wasn't that bad. But he's been bad in general. Dude,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: he hasn't even been good on the road so far
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: this year. So last year he was really bad in
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: this stadium. But he's been bad and basically every stars
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: this year. He's got a twenty four to sixteen strike
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. That's an insane Those are insane numbers.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: That number of walks is outrageous. The number of strike
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: uts is good in nineteen to third innings, but sixteen
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: walks is ridiculously almost one walk per inning. He's allowed
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: three or more walks in every single outing. He's not
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: a guy you could trust right now. Man, few are
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: the one hit per innings, so there is that at least.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Oh and I forgot to look at his numbers against
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. Yeah, they're not really that good and
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: fifty five at bad, twelve to five strike out walk
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: ratio not great, three or nine batting average allowed eight
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: to ninety four ohps. So those are not good numbers.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: So this game, I would say probably an over is
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: what makes the most sense in this game. Maybe the
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: White Sox have a little bit of an edge here
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: with Fetti, you know, being a little bit more of
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: an unknown, maybe having more potential here. But I probably
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: prefer an over here. Uh, the A's are at minus
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: one fifty seven, I think because they're facing the White Sox.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're almost never gonna see the A's being
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: favored by that much. Seventy nine percent of tickets ninety
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the A's. Don't know
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: if I really buy any cash percentage that says ninety nine,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I might buy this total percentage though, sixty seven percent
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty five percent of the cash on the over.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: The total dropped a little bit from ten juice to
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: the under, the nine and a half juice to the over.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: It's still you have to go over that key number
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. But we know it's a hitter
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: friendly park. We know we get bad bullpends here. Both
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers might do bad here. Seven Reno hasn't shown
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: anything this year. The matchup numbers don't look particularly good
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: for those guys either, So I think over is the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: way to play that game, if you're gonna do anything
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: with it, all right, Detroit at my Boston Red Sox,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Red Sox walk off win in ten innings yesterday, I
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: think with a Yoshida RBI single to win the game.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: A really low scoring game yesterday, Ron Jr. Suarez had
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: a really good start and didn't get the win, but
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: luckily the Red Sox were able to win the game.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: At the very least. Don't think the Red Sox are
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: gonna win this game though. I think this is a
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: major pitching mismatch in favor of Detroit. Of course, here Detroit,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: but of course Detroit's gonna be a huge favorite. Detroit
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers. Yesterday the Red Sox only used two,
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: but they did use Chapman yesterday, although sometimes they use
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: them multiple days in a row. Even though he's like
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: thirty eight's maybe even older. I don't even know what
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: he is now. Hitting wise, the Red Sox have not
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: been good. They're twenty third in offense, Detroit a little
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: bit better, seventeenth, So the offenses haven't totally come around,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: and I think both offenses are pretty talented, though generally
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox bullpen has been pretty good. There's seventh
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: right now in Whip. Detroit not bad either at sixteenth,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: so both bullpens are fine. But obviously starting pitching is
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: a huge edge for Detroit. Obviously they have school ball
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: on the mound. Here. We know he's probably the best
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher in baseball. It's probably between him and Schemes
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: two point two two, ERA point nine to five Whip.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Really good numbers here, twenty three to four, strike out
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, nineteen hits lout on, twenty four to thirty.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: In he's pitched, you'd kind of expect more strikeouts from him,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: but whatever. He's had one blip against Minnesota, but he
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: bounced back right away. Whatever, we know he's really good.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against the Red Sox two and
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: forty eight at bats, ten to one, strike out, walk
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: ratio two to twenty nine, batting average allowed four ninety
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: five ohps. Those numbers are all good. And he's going
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: up against Brian Bao, who I think his ERA has
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: been misleading the last couple of seasons. He's really not
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: that good. He puts way too many guys on base.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: This year. His numbers are just really bad. Six point
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: one four ERA, one point nine to one WHIP. I
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: don't think he can he can continue to be this bad.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: And the one good thing the reason why he's able
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: to get away with putting guys on base, which again
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I don't I still don't like it. I don't like
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: pitchers have put too many guys on base. But he's
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: able to limit the damage because he induces a ton
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of ground balls, which is good in Famway Park because
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: it's a hitter friendly park. So there is that. He
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: did pitch okay in his last outing, which was his
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: only good outing so far this year, six to two thirds,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: two runs allout against Saint Louis, although that was on
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: the road. More pitcher friendly park there, and Saint Louis
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: is not a good offense, and he still had a
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: two to two strikeout walk ratio, which isn't good. But
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: you know, he did at least have a better start there.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not good against the Tigers and fifty
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: nine at bats nine to four strike out walk ratio,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: three seventy three average allowed, nine to twenty one ohps.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: None of that is good. I think Detroit's gonna win
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: this game. But how do you attack this when they're
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: at minus one sixty seven? You know, eighty two percent
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety eight percent of the cash on Detroit here. Yeah,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the approach is here. Man. The
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: money has kind of comeing towards the over here. I
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: mean it has with fifty percent of tickets on the under, yeah,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty on the over under here, eighty five
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. The total is
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: sitting at a very low seven. Obviously, if the money's
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: coming in on the over, it's basically because Bao is
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: going to be the one that's gonna make this game
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: go over, you know what I mean? Because like a
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Bayo game, there should not be a total of seven. Okay,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: that's just the way that it is, Like seven should
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: be a pitching duel. Yeah, school ball being in the game,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: obviously a seven makes sense in that regard. But with
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Bao on the mountain, there's no way. Maybe the way
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: that you approach the Senate is to go Detroit over
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: their team total. Maybe that's the right approach here, just
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: take Detroit to score runs here. But then again, Red
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Sox bullpen has not been that bad, so that gets
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit sketchy as well. I mean, you could
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: lay like a Detroit minus one run line or make
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: your own or whatever. That gets a little bit questionable
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: on the road too. But I do think Detroit will
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: win the game, so I think if you do that,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: you'll at worst push that bet. So if you wanted
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: to do it that way, you could, but I don't.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I just don't see a great method of attack in
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: that game. Really, Milwaukee at Miami interesting game here. It
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: looks like it could be a really good pitching matchup here.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Depending you know, maybe it won't be, but it could be. Miami.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Let me see, they lost to Milwaukee yesterday, so they're
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: on a three game losing streak, right, now Miami, I
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: don't think they're as good as they looked early in
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: the season, but their numbers overall in the season looked
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good. They did use four relief pitchers yesterday, though,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: which is not good. Milwaukee also used Milwaukee's five my mistake.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: I think the game went into extra innings, so there
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: was a lot of bullpen you suggest today, So the
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: bullpen's look pretty fatable here. Even though Miami's bullpen has
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: generally been pretty good at ninth in whip Brewers, not
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: quite as good at a twenty third, So Miami probably
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: does still have a bullpen edg year, just to keep
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that in mind. But it looks like you want to
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: fade both bullpens here though, Miami eighth and hitting right now.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't know about that eleventh for Milwaukee that's
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: arranged by ops. I think Milwaukee does probably have the
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: better offense, so I think Miami's been a little bit
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: of a mirage starting out the season playing against some
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: bad teams. Brandon wood Drift is pitching for Milwaukee here.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I think he's good, as Era doesn't quite tell you
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: the tail At four point three to two, that's not great,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: but one point zero eight whip. That is a good whip.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good since coming back from injury. He
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: only had one bad start here against the Red Sox,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: and somehow the Red Sox still didn't win that game.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Other than that, he's been good. Uh So, that was
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: just kind of a blip for him. Sixteen to three
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, fewer than one hit per inning
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: allowed in sixteen to two thirds. That's pretty good Woodroff.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Against Miami, his numbers are actually not great against them,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre really, or mediocre at best. Actually, in thirty
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: four at bats nine to two strike out walk ratio
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: two sixty five average a lot eight oh six ops
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: is a little bit higher than you'd like to see here,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: although it is being skewed because a Roberto Hernandez has
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: two of them runs off him, So if you take
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: that out of the equation, his numbers look a bit better.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really think Woodriff is going to pitch poorly here,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: though he's going up against Sandy Alcandra, who has been
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: in the Cy Young discussion early in the season. His
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: numbers is still really good. Two point six seventy r
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: point eighty six whip and that's despite getting knocked around
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: in his last start, but they left him in for
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: one hundred pitches six innings, which I actually kind of
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: like that, even though it does mean he's throwing too
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: many pitches, but that means Miami trusts him, Like even
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: when he's getting blown up in a game, they're like, no,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: go out there, get us some more innings, you know
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Gave up seven runs in that because
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: they let him go six innings, it kind of limited
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: the damage to his overall numbers a bit, but it
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: is a concern that that was his most recent outing,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: but it was skewed a little bit because he gave
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: up three home runs, so that did make it look
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit worse, but he still did allow
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: ten hits and six innings there. Still overall, twenty two
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: to six strike out walk ratio is good. Twenty hits
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: a lout and thirty and to third innings is good.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: The only issue is his strikeouts just haven't come back. Dude,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Like he's not the guy that he once was. When
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: I think he won the Cy Young maybe back before
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: he had his major injury issues or he was in
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: the running for it at some point. I think he
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: did win it at one point, but his strikeout raided
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: his way down since then, so he's having to become
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: a different pitcher man. I think his stuff is not
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: really what it once was, so there are some concerns
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: with him here. His numbers are good against Milwaukee, but
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: some of this my be before his injury. Forty nine
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: at bats, thirteen to two strike at walk ratio one
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: forty three average, allowed three fifty seven ops, So those
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: are good numbers, you know. I was looking at this
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: and thinking of this game looked like an under. We
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: have fifty eight percent of tickets on the over, fifty
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the under. Totals at
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, which is probably about where it
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: should be. Don't want to deal with the bullpens, so
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: I think it would be a first five inning under here.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: The problem is Woodroff doesn't have great matchup numbers here,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: and al Contra might be falling out a form here
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: based on that last outing, so there are some concerns
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: with it. So I don't want to put this on
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: my card. I'll have a slight lean towards the first
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: five under here. Still, I think you could see both
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: pitchers put in good performances here in duel here, which
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you know, for guys that like pitching duels, that's what
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: you want. But there are some concerns here. Both of
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: these pitchers are actually trying to come back from injuries.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: So but Woodrooff has been a bit more successful at
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: doing so, and the money is coming out of Milwaukee
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: here Miami down to minus one to wait, so the
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: money is kind of fading. Al contre here fifty percent
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Miami, fifty nine percent the cash on Milwaukee.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I love that, because I don't
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: think Milwaukee has the better bullpen. As I told you,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: they do have the better offense. Probably you could make
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the argument they have the better starting pitcher here, just
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: better current form, but the matchup numbers don't really support it.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't like it. I think still the
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: best method of approached method of attacked there is first
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: five under all right Baltimore at Cleveland. Cleveland did have
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: kind of a letdown after Messik almost got them a
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: no hit or the game before that. Cleveland did fall
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: back down and they lost yesterday. If a fall back down,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: are they gonna get back up again? I don't know.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland used four relief pitchers yesterday. That's not a great sign,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: and their bullpen hasn't been as good this year as
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: it was last year. Baltimore used even more though Baltimore
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: used five, so these bullpens are not in the greatest
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: rest shape here. Baltimore's bullpen has been pretty good this
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: season though, at fifth in WHIP, but I don't know
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: if they're a fully trustworthy bullpen and they're not rested
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: right now. Cleveland has been middle of the pack at best.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: Either era is actually really bad out of the bullpen
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: right now. They're at nineteenth overall and whip and kind
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: of us so Baltimore probably does have a bullpen edge here.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens look kind of untrustworthy here. Offensively, Baltimore's four
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: thirteenth excuse me, and Cleveland is fifteenth I ops, so
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: it's a close call. Offensively, they're both okay offenses. I
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: think Dean Kreamer is pitching for Baltimore. He made the
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: surprise start where they had not listed as starter back
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: on Monday, and it wound up being Creamer. The Israeli
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: never really been a fan of him, not because of
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: that really, but well maybe no but because he just
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: hasn't really been that good of a pitcher. He was
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: good in that outing against Arizona, though he somehow was
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: able to dodge three home runs and only allowed two
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: earned runs. When do you ever see a pitch you're
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: allowing fewer earned runs than the amount of home runs
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: they allow. Probably hasn't happened often, but his defense kind of,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: you know, lapsed behind him. He had nine strikeouts, no
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: walks in five innings, so overall, that was a good
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: outing from him. Arizona's been struggling offensively, though I don't
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: think Kreamer is really that good. Though I look at
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: his numbers last year he was okay. I mean, last
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: couple of years he's been consistent, at least with an
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: ERA a little bit over four, a whip in the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: one two's. Basically it's not awful, so you know, he's
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: a fine picture to throw like towards the back end
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: of your rotation. Against Cleveland, his numbers are mediocre and
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: forty three at bats four to five strikeout walk ratio
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: is obviously not good. More walks and strikeouts to seventy
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: nine batting average allowed, seven to twenty six oh ps.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Those numbers are not particularly good, but they're not awful either.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Going up against Gavin Williams, who I pointed out in
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: his last start that he made his numbers are real
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: really crazy, Like it's it's crazy how lopsided his numbers are.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Although overall you see his numbers look really good two
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: point three eighty r a one point one to five whip.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: But what I mean is his walk number is terrible.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: He's walked sixteen guys in twenty two and two thirds innings.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: How is it possible that he has allowed so few runs,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: You know, it's crazy. It's because he's only allowed ten hits.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: So he's been basically unhittable. Oh, the last start he
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: was fairly hittable. He wasn't as good in his most
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: recent outing. Cleveland has won his last three starts, though,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: But his strike out rate is really high. But that
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: walk number is literally out of control, multiple walks in
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: every start. That's a problem. You can't continue to walk
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: that many guys and continue to not have them cross
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: the cross home plate, you know what I mean. Even
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: if he is a really good strikeout pitcher, there's some
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: issues here. Against Baltimore, though his numbers are good in
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: twenty four at bats. It's a small sample. Seven to
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio one sixty seven average allowed,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: five ninety three ohps. Those numbers are pretty good. So
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: he does have the better matchup numbers here, Like, what
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: do we do with this game? I honestly don't know
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: if we're gonna get like the best of Williams. I
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: think he has a higher ceiling than Creamer, you know
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Like Williams is the better strike up pitcher.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: He has the better stuff, so when he's on, I
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: think he is the better pitcher. Eighty three percent of tickets,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on Cleveland to bounce
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: back after yesterday the remnus one thirty three. I don't
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: love their bullpen. I think if you want to go
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Cleveland here, I think maybe you gotta go first five innings.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think they have that much of an edge
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: with Williams over Creamer, though, I mean, his walk numbers
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: are just insane. The money is hitting the under here.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: It's all the way down to seven and a half,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: on the under money. Kind of liking both starting pitchers here. Yeah.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, the matchup numbers for them aren't bad, and
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: if you get like the best version of these pictures
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: will get you there. But you know I can't do
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I would not do the under including the bullpens though,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: because the bullpens are pretty unrested. I'd probably go first
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: five under, but that gets pretty dicey too. I just
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: don't really see an angle of attack here, man. This
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: is one of the most difficult games on the board
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: to handicap. I struggled with a lot of these games today.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't Yeah, I don't see a good approach
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: for that game. Man. I might have a slight lean
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: towards Cleveland there, but I really don't like it very much.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis at Houston. We did get the over in
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: this game. It was nine to four, not nine to five,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: my mistake. But yeah, Houston's pitching really struggled in the game.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Both offenses did enough to get us over that total
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: with a decent amount of ease there. As far as
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, Houston's bullpen is terrible, and they did use
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday. Part of the reason for the
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: over yesterday was both bullpens are not good. Saint Louis
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: used four relief pitchers yesterday. Houston, they're above Kansas City
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: now and bullpen era very very slight or actually know
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: the area is worse my mistake in whip. They're tied,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: but their area is still worse, so they're actually still
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: worse than Kansas City. So Houston is still the worst
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball right now. So they're a very fadable bullpen.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is twenty second. Their bullpen hasn't been good either,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: so that was part of the handicap yesterday. We wanted
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: to fade the bullpens. Houston's offense is third in OPS,
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: but maybe not quite as good as maybe they look.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: They did lose yesterday. Saint Louis. I don't think their
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: offense is that good. I do think both offenses are
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: overrated here, but I did like them to get to
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: those pitchers yesterday. Maybe they will again today. Saint Louis
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: is fourteenth in offense right now. Andre Piante is pitching
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: for US Saint Louis. I don't think he's a very
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: trustworthy pitcher. Four point eighty RA one point five to
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: three whip. That's not good. More walks than strikeouts is
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: pretty agreedious. Seven strikeouts, eight walks and fifteen innings. That's
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: really bad. He doesn't have good strikeouts stuff, putting too
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: many guys on base. Numbers against Houston very so all
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: fifteen at bat sample size, but not good. One to
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: two strike up, walk ratio three thirty three average allowed,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: nine to forty five ops. Those are bad numbers for Pionte.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't trust him here, mister Pinzy, what's up?
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out to Yes, he's going up against
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Lance McCullers, who mccullar's obviously has the ability to outpitch
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Payonte here. He's had a better career for sure, but
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: he's been struggling since last year, you know, trying to
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: come back from that injury. He's been struggling, dude, he
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: had Tommy John surgery or whatever. He's had some really
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: good outings and some really bad outings since then. So
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: he's very, very difficult to handicop because he's so all
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: over the place this year five point eight seventy r
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: a one point three whip. He does still have some
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: pretty good upside. He has more than one strike up
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: per inning here, a few were the one hit per inning.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: That's all good in fifteen to third innings, seventeen strikeouts,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: fourteen hits, six walks, Maybe a little bit concerning, but
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: really his numbers aren't that bad, except that he failed
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: to make it past four to third innings in his
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: last two outings. One of them was at the A's,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: So maybe you give him a pass for that because
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: that's a really difficult stadium to pitch in. Maybe he
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: can't really give him a pass for getting blown up
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: a bit by Seattle in Seattle. Seattle hasn't hit well
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: this year, and that's a picture friendly ballparks. So yeah,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: he's not in good form right now, so that's definitely
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: a concern. Doesn't say much for the Red Sox that
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: he pretty much dominated the Red Sox in his one
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: good outing this year. Saint Louis has basically never faced him.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: The only Urius has ever seen him before, and he's
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: won for two often with a single, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: So McCullers is unfamiliar to Saint Louis, but there is
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: plenty of game film out there on him, although that
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: can't really still, that can't really match. You know that
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: can't match like seeing him in a real game environment.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: You know, I think Houston does have some advantages here.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to disagree with the Houston side. I'd
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: maybe go first five innings on it because their bullpen
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: is so bad, but Saint Louis's bullpen is bad too.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I think mccullors has more of an ability to put
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: together a really good start here than Payonte does, and
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: his matchup numbers are more of the fact that he
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't have any make him a little bit more enticing here.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Minus one forty is the number on Houston right now,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: it's gone up for minus one thirty two, seventy one
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the cash on
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Houston money is agreeing with Houston, I will agree with that,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: But I think probably the better way to look at
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: this maybe is still to go over here, because then
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: you get both bad bullpens in your back pocket. Maybe
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: mccullors won't be dominant here. I think Payonte probably won't
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: do well. Seventy three percent of tickets, ninety two percent
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over here money. I mean,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the total's gone up to nine. You know what, based
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: on what I just said, you know, it's obvious. You
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: know what, Probably the better method of attack here is
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: because mccullor's is kind of an unknown here. I think
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: what you do is you go Houston over their team total, man,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: because Houston might be in bounced back mode after yesterday's lost. Whatever,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: their offense is still good, they're gonna be facing bad
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: pitching pretty much this entire game. Houston over the team total,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: I think, does make a lot of sense. In this game,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: you're gonna need them to probably score about five runs
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: for you, though they could definitely do it. So maybe
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: that's the way I would go there. Tallest of all
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: the gamblers, I'm very short though I'm five to six man, Charles,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. My ability to gamble
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: makes me tall? How about that? All right? Atlanta at
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia on Fox two games on Fox that are competing
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: with each other. This game is gonna get more eyes though.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: People are gonna watch this game over Texas Seattle, like
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: everybody's gonna want the offense over the deepense, you know
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: what I mean, Or over the pitching. I mean, even
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: though I like pitching, but actually both of these games
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: have good pitching too, though, and Actually, you could definitely
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: make the argument. I think the argument is actually correct
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: that the pitching is actually better in this Atlanta Philadelphia
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: game as well. So it's an elleite pitching matchup here
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: in this Atlanta Philadelphia game. Plus people like these offenses probably,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: so yeah, uh, this game is definitely gonna get more viewers.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: Well that they just had bigger markets too, so it's
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: pretty obvious. Philadelphia's lost three games in a row. They
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: got shut out yesterday nine to nothing by Atlanta. I
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: don't know if I saw that coming. I mean, I
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: think it was, uh who was pitching in that I
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: forget who was pitching in that game. I don't think
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: I quite saw that coming. O. I think I did
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: lean to Atlanta slightly. I think it was it was
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Taiwan Walk. Are you so? I said, yeah, I thought
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: the Phillies are gonna get blown up. I think I
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: liked the over in that game. I don't know if
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: it actually went over or not, but Atlanta certainly went
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: over their team total, and Martine Perez again you know,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: doing his thing out there. He outpitched Taiwan Walker significantly,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: it looks like in that game. But anyway, Philadelphia might
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: bounce back here because whenever you have a team that
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: gets shut out and blown out at home, a lot
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: of times you get a much better effort out of
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: them in the next game, and the other team might
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: overlook them a little bit. Probably that means you have
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: to fade Chrissale if you like Philadelphia here, and you know,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna never do that, but it'll take a
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: lot for me to want to fade Chrissale. Philadelphia used
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not great for them,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: and I don't think their bullpen is particularly great. Atlanta
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: only US one, so Atlanta's bullpen is in much better
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: shape coming into this game. Atlanta's bullpen has been good
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: on the season too. Somehow, they're number one in bullpen
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: I believe, both in e RA and whip if I'm
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: not mistaken. Yeah, with San Diego second in e RA. Atlanta.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know how their bullpen has done this, but
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: they have. Philadelphia has been better than you would think.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: Their whip is eighth best in bullpen whip, but their
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: ERA has been bad and their bullpen wasn't particularly good
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: last year, so I'm not ready to say Philadelphia is
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: that good in the bullpen. I would agree that the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: Braves have the better bullpen and they're more rested. Braves
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: have been the better offense this year so far, though
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna regress, but I keep saying that,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: and they're still second in ops Philadelphia. You gotta think
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get better at some point. They have too
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: much talent on this offense to be sitting at twentieth
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: uh So. I think Philadelphia their offense is at least
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: comparable to Atlanta's, if not, I think maybe better if
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: you look at who they have in their lineup. But
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Chrissale is on the mound. Chrissale, you know he's not
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: slowing down yet three point two seventy RA one point
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: zero five with maybe you know, going through the grind
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: of the season. He might get worse towards the end
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: of the season because he is pretty old, but so
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: far he's looking pretty fresh. Well what's I think? I
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: have that clip? Even though I don't want to prolong
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: this video, let me see. Yeah, I think this is
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: this is the one that I want. Look a good looking,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: very fresh, don't I still need to watch Celtic Pride
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: again before the Celtics start their playoffs here, Yes, looking
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: very fresh. Chrissale twenty two to six strike out walk
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: ratio for him, four home runs allowed is a bit concerning,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he's allowed seventeen hits and twenty
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: two winnings. We know who he is, man, He's good,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: still good numbers overall. His strikeout rate is not even
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: that down, so pretty good for him. His numbers a
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: gets Philadelphia, they're good. Although granted some of these numbers
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: were back in the day, you know what I mean,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: like when he was a little bit better than this,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: But he's still good. Eighty three at bats here, so
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: it's a big sample. Thirty three to four strike out
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is pretty good, two twenty nine batting average allowed,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: six to fifty ops. He's got good numbers against these
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: Philly hitters. Man, I think that it is likely that
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get a good start out of Chris Sale
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: here tall. Yes, that's right. Standing on him money, I
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: stand on it. I stand behind it in principle and
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: with my even though I should be actually putting real
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: money on more of these games because I've been so hot,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of mad that I haven't been. I got
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: to just turn this into a full time pursuit or something,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: but I haven't actually totally done it yet. So yes,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: I don't remember what I was gonna say, but yes,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: I stand tall that way. But I know you mean literally,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stand on a pile of money, but all
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: the money's digital, man, so it could be taken away
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: from you in an instant. It's the battle of the
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: chrises here as Christopher Sanchez is pitching for the Phillies.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Two point oh one era is excellent, but his whip
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: is a little bit questionable one point thirty nine. He's
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: put too many guys on base here. His walk number
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit questionable so far. Still, his
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: numbers overall are quite good. Thirty one strikeouts in twenty
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: two and a third is really good, pretty elite strikeout
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: rate there. Seven walks isn't even bad. But he's actually
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: been too hittable, believe it or not. But most of
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: that came in that one outing against San Francisco where
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: his defense let him down and he couldn't get out
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: of whatever inning that was, and that's how I think
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: they were able to get eleven hits off him. In
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: five and he's still somehow only allowed two orn runs.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm not ready to say that he's bad or
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: anything because his whip looks bad or now it's getting
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: skewed by that one game against San Francisco where now
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: he's allowed twenty four hits and twenty two ure and
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: third innings. But the more concerning thing is his numbers
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta are not that good. In ninety one at bats,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: they've seen a good amount of him, twenty four to
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio is really good. But when
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: they're able to make contact, they do hit him pretty
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: well two eighty six batting average allowed, seven to eighty
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: five ops. So maybe it won't be a bounce back
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: for Philly here man Situationally, yes, the situation looks like
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: it does line up for Philly to bounce back, But
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I love that, because Sale does
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: have the better matchup numbers. Now the money is coming
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: in on Philadelphia strongly. Atlanta is they're a like huge
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: public side here, seventy two percent of tickets, only sixty
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash. You know, I say, you
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: gotta be really wary of these public underdogs, which Atlanta
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: is one of those you don't want to be on
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: the public underdog usually and because it basically means they're
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: at a disadvantage in the game and the public is
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: on them. So that's kind of a du where Philadelphia
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: is now at minus one twenty two, so maybe this
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: is a spot where you can fade Chris Sale. The
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: problem is, as I already pointed out, matchup wise looks
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: like it favors Atlanta here. They have the more arrested bullpen,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen Sale with the better matchup numbers here. Yeah,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: I just I don't love it. The market Rita saying Philadelphia,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers is saying Atlanta, So it's like, which
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: one of those wins out do with that information what
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: you want? The total is at seven, Like if you
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a pitching duel, of course,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: it looks like a great pitching duel, so you should
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: be thinking under in this game. Maybe eighty four percent
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on the
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: over though, but there's definitely a world where both pitchers
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: do pitch well. Here. Both bullpens have been decent enough
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: that I think maybe you could go full game under
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: on this. Uh, it's on that key number seven right now.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with going a full game here under
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with that, but I don't know. It's
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit questioned both to me. I don't want
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: anything to do with this game Atlanta in the first five.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: I don't think I really like that over the full
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: game for Atlanta, because I think Atlanta might have an advantage,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: you know, like I said, they have a bullpen advantage.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: They have the better bullpen, and the bullpen's way more
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: rested here, So I would not if I wanted Atlanta,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: I would not count out their bullpen in this game.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: So no, I think I would go full game on
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: Atlanta if I was gonna play Atlanta, but I don't
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: want to do it. The market read is saying to
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: stay the hell away from that, So do with that information.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: What you want. Texas at Seattle is the other Fox game.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: I mean it's a decent divisional game. Seattle got shut
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: out again at home. I mean they were returning home
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, but it was only a quick
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: trip to San Diego, so I thought they would kind
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: of be in bounce back mode here and they were
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: not Seattle's not on a good run right now, but
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll bounce back here after getting shut out A
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: logan Gilbert didn't really do that bad in the game,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: but he got pitch by Jacob de Grom. I think
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: de Grom is really good. But the bullpen, you know,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle's bullpen was just a little bit worse in that
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: game too. But coming off a shutout, like I just said,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: with Philadelphia, that's a good situation for that team to
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: bounce back typically after they get shut out at home.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: But you know, for me, it is matchup dependent whether
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: I want to actually make a play on the game.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: Seattle used three relief pitchers yesterday. Both of these bullpens
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. Texas used five, so Seattle does have
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: a bit of a bullpen rest edge here. Seattle's only
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: eleventh right now in bullpen whip, Texas is tenth. I
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: think you could argue Seattle as a bullpen edge here
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: just based on the rest after looking at what they
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: did yesterday. The offense is Seattle's just hasn't come around.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: They're at twenty six right now, although I think based
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: on who they have in their lineup, you gotta think
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: they're going to be better than that. At some point.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Texas's offense has been the better of the two, but
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that they really are. They're at twelfth
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: right now, but based on who they have in their lineup,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think Texas offense is significantly better than Seattles
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: if it really is at all. Maybe Texas has a
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge. Nathan Valdi's on the mound here. His
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: overall numbers don't look good, but I gave you guys
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: a play on him at the A's Stadium in his
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: last game because he pitched well there last year, so
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: that made me less hesitant to do it, and it
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: worked out. I think he had maybe he had an
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe I'm getting that wrong. I think
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: that's correct, but he gave us a really good start.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: He got us a win there. We know based on
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: what Evaldi did last year, we know he's not as
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: bad as this five point four ear one point four
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: eight whip. His numbers were actually really good last year
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: and he might be coming into form. His last two
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: starts were both good, one of them though against Seattle. So,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: like I was pointing out yesterday, when these offenses are
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: recently familiar with the opposing pitcher. Sometimes that is an
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: advantage to the hitters because they just saw this pitcher,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: so a lot of times, especially if they did poorly
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: in that first outing, a lot of times they will
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: do better in that next game. But he evolved. He's
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: a veteran man, so you know, Seattle seeing him one
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: more time, I don't think he's gonna help them that
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: much because they've seen him a bunch anyway. And he's
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: been really good in his last two outings. So with
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: fourteen strikeouts and four walks, that's pretty good. Nine hits
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: allowed in thirteen innings, so he's in good form right now.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Seattle also good. In that huge samp
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: of one thirty seven forty to nine strike out walk
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: ratio is good, two point four batting average allowed is good,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: five ninety three ohps. All those numbers are good. So yeah,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: you Evaldi may very well do well here. He's going
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: up against George Kirby, who typically is better at home,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: which every Seattle pitcher is, and that's where they are here.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: He's been good this season three point two five yr
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: point nine to four whip. He looks to be in
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: pretty good for him right now too. Really kind of
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: hasn't gotten out of for him, Like he really hasn't
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: had a bad start. The start that was the worst.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: He still went six innings in a loss to the Yankees,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: given four and runs. None of that is bad. His
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is in particul really high at twenty two
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: and twenty seven to two thirds innings, but six walks
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: not bad. Twenty hits allowed, that's a that's very few hits,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: so he has been pretty good. Ground ball rate very good,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of ground balls, so yeah, he's been pretty
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: good overall against Texas's numbers are good and one hundred
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: and twenty seven at bats thirty six to four strike
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio two twenty batting average allowed, five thirty
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: six ops. Good numbers there. I think what that means
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: is under is probably the way you want to look
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: in this game. Total has moved out to seven juice
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: to the overall, though we don't see the percentages yet
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: on this, I think an under makes a lot of sense.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: Maybe you could go first five innings if you're worried
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: about you know, Texas bullpen is not very rested after yesterday,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: so first five innings, you might be able to find
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: a three and a half on this. Yesterday's game still
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: went under even though it was a six and a half.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I still did like the under yesterday,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: just six and a half, like is never really gonna
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: make my card, just because I just can't do it,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: even though professional will tell me I'm stupid for that.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: But still seven is a key number. But you're getting
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: that seven in this one. I think e Evaldi could
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: be a little bit underrated right now because his numbers
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: just don't look good so far this year. But like
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: I said, in his last start, he's a lot better
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: than that. So yeah, I think under first five is
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: probably the best look in this game. Not putting it
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: on my car though. Seattle minus one thirty eight here
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: on the money line, seventy six percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Seattle, so the money
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: is indicating on Seattle, you know. I mean, Kirby does
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: have the better numbers this year, and based on Seattle
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: having more bullpen rest here the bounce back mode for them,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: maybe their offense a little bit underrated. I don't disagree
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: with Seattle to finally break that losing streak there, but
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: that's not on my card either, and I still think
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: I prefer the under there. Dodger's at Colorado, it was
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: crazy course field yesterday. The game almost got snowed out yesterday.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: It was snowing in the middle of the day and
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: then they still played the game real crazy and I
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: recommended under team total for Colorado in that game, and
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: it happened. They only scored one run. The Dodgers won easily,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: so if you did do like a run line on
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, they did cover it. But I would not
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: recommend laying multiple runs on a run line. It's just ridiculous.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers only is one relief pitcher yesterday, so their
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: bullpen is intact. Colorado used two. Uh. Dodgers' bullpen is
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: actually second best right now in WHIP, I believe it
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: or not. Even though their bullpen definitely struggled a bit
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: last year, their bullpen's been good this year. I'm not
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: convinced they're this good, but they have been good. Colorado's
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: bullpen I think is gonna drop off at some point, dude,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: but they've been good sixth in WHIP. So both bullpens
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: have actually been good this season. Then we look at
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup. Maybe these pitchers are both a
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: little bit under the radar. Maybe Emmett she and his
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Dodgers. He's a young guy. He's still
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: got some talent year. Although I know his numbers don't
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: look good this year. Six point six ERA, one point
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: four to seven whip that's bad. Obviously, his numbers were
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: good last year though, and he seems like he's getting
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: better in every start here, so that's good. He's sort
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: of coming into for him. Had a six inning performance
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: last time out, three on runs allowed against Texas, six strikeouts,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: one walk, gotta win. That was his best performance of
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: the season so far. So I think he's better than
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: what his numbers are shown. So far against Colorado he
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: has been good. Forty four at bats, sixteen to two,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, one fifty nine average allowed, four ninety
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: one oh ps. Good numbers against Colorado, and they're not
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: a very good offense. Even though they are better at home.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: There's still not a good offense. I guess. The other question,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: the other concern here is did he pitch in courts
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Field at all? I don't know. Yeah, he pitched in
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Corps last year. He went six innings lot four and runs.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: Two of them runs. I mean, you got to keep
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: that in control, but I mean it was at course field. Overall,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a bad outing though, seven strikeouts, two walks,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: and he got a win in that game with a
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: lot of runs supports, so he wasn't really bad. And
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: that start at Colorado last year, so I think he
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: can definitely handle this pitching a course field. Ryan Feltner's
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: pitching for Colorado. His numbers look really bad. Seven point
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: three ERA, one point seven WHIP. I'm not gonna argue
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: that he's good, but he, I mean, he is going
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: out of form. His worst start was his last outing
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: at San Diego, which is not a good sign because
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: their offense hasn't been very good this year. That's a
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park there, so yeah, that's not great. But
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: maybe he might not be that bad here. His numbers
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers are somewhat serviceable. In fifty four at
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: bats to forty one batting average, allot's seven thirty oh
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: ps a little bit high. The real problem is the walks.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: Eight strikeouts, fourteen walks, but six of them are monthsy,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: so he kind of pitches around him in three to
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Freeman still not great. You know, I don't know if
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: we could trust him. But I actually think an under
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: is actually worth considering in this game. The totals all
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: the way up to eleven actually a dropped from eleven
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: and a half to eleven. It goes to eleven. I'm
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: not gonna play that drop. It's too long, but and
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: it might be a copyright strike. Eighty three percent of
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: tickets only sixty four percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: The public is obviously gonna play an over. They're gonna
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: see two pictures with really bad numbers. The Dodgers are
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: playing in this game. It's in Colorado. The public is
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: definitely coming in on the over here. The total is
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: clearly high for a reason. But I think both pictures
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: might be better than their numbers suggest at the very least,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: and the bullpens might be a little bit better than
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: people think. So I think an under might actually be
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: the approach in this game. I don't want to do it, though.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers are minus two eighty three on the money line. Again,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: like I said yesterday, there are minus three hundred. There's
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: just no way, even though they have the advantage in
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: pretty much every phase of the game. Seventy nine percent
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on the Dodgers.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Looks like they're actually taking money. I wouldn't do it, man,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: I really wouldn't. Yeah, those are my thoughts on that game.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: Otani point five yards so far. Yeah, in like three
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: starts or whatever. Yeah, he's been pretty good. You know.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: I expect a little bit of regression there, but he's
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: a pretty good pitcher. Toronto at Arizona. Arizona got the
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: win yesterday despite being in a really bad return home spot.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: But they were returning from three series on the East Coast.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: They still won against Toronto Arizona. You know, they're playing
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: well right now. I still am not sold on this bullpen.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen's been pitching well, but I'm not sold on it. Man.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: They have no lefties in the bullpen. How could it
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: be this good? They only used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: Their bullpen is very arrested after using nobody the day
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: before that. Toronto used three yesterday. Their bullpen's not exactly
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: in bad shape, but Arizona has the third best bullpen whip,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: although their era is not good at four point eight,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: So I still think their bullpen's not as good as
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: it looks so far. Maybe they're not like a horrible
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: bullpen like I thought they would be this year, but
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're great like they've looked so far
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. Toronto, I mean they're bullpen
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: Therays not even that much worse. But they're down at
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: eighteenth in whips. So yeah, Toronto's bullpend hasn't been very
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: good and actually yeah they're No. Their e ray is
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: actually better. Their Bullpennira's actually better than Arizona's. Hilarious Arizona.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: You expect their offense to be a bit better, and
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: it has been. Actually, they're up to eighteenth now, so
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: their offense is coming around. The Blue Jays have been
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: dealing with a lot of injuries. They're down at twenty
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: first on offense, and though obviously they can hit better
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: than that. We'll see what we want to do in
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: this game. Though, Max Schurzer is on the mound. I
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: mean he might be nearing the end man. I mean,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: his numbers are awful so far this year, and his
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: elbow looks like this after the Tommy John Surgerys and
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: whatever this is some bad stuff nine point five eighty
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: Ray and that was back when he was on Texas.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: That video is from years ago, nine point five eighty Ray.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: This year awful one point four or five whip, but
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: of course a lot of that is because he got
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: blown up by Minnesota and last game, which we got
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: to win. On that game with Minnesota on the first five.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: Didn't trust Shurser. I still don't. He's got nine strikeouts,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: four walks on the season, four home runs allowed, eleven
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: hits and eleven earned runs, a lout in ten to
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings. He had one good start at home
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: against Colorado. Since then, he's been awful and hasn't even
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: made it through the third inning and either start. Granted,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: they pulled him really early in a game against the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Dodgers where he could have turned that thing around, So
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was about. But yeah, maybe
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: he's on a short leash. I don't know. Things are
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: not looking good for Shurser. Now. He's going up against
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: the team that I believe drafted him. I want to
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: say Arizona I think was the first team he pitched
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: for in his career, but he's faced them since obviously,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: so I don't think that's that big of a deal.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: But against them in the past, fifty six at bats,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: thirteen to five strikeout walk Rango is not great. One
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: forty three batting as allowed, four to forty five ohps.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against Arizona, but the problem is
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of those numbers were back when Shurzer was
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: better than he is now, So current form, he's just awful.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: Like I think he's unplayable, even though his numbers do
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: look good in his career against Arizona, he's going up
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: against Zach Gallen, who, of course is the younger of
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: the pitchers. Gallan, his era looks good at three point six,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: but one point four or five whip that's not good.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: So his whip is telling you that he's putting way
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base. Last year, he pitched a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home than on the road, but
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: he didn't have significant splits like fot did last year. Gallan,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: I think he is a little bit better than this
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: though like last year, I think was kind of a
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: bad season for him. I think he is a little
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: bit better than that. His numbers are really not good
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: this season, though only eleven strikeouts and twenty innings. He's
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: not striking guys out. He's got seven walks, bad ratio there,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: more than one hit a lout per inning. None of
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: that is good, dude. Although this month, you know, maybe
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, Maybe he's kind of rounding it
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: to four, maybe a little bit more here. Two of
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: those starts he had one and zero walk, So at
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: least there is that he's got at least five innings
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: in all these starts. And he had to face Detroit,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: the Mets in Philadelphia two of those games on the road.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: Not exactly easy offenses to face, even though I know
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: all of those offenses have kind of been underperforming this year,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: especially the Mets against Toronto. Gallon's numbers are really bad
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: and forty one at bats ten to four, strike a
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio four to thirty nine, average allowed one thousand
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: and one seventy two oh ps. That's probably not something
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: you want to have a play on. So I think
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: this game is an over I think that's what makes
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: the most sense in this one. The total dropped a
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: little bit from nine and a half to nine. The
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: money looks like it's fading. That sentiment. Sixty percent of
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: tickets and sixty four percent of the casual on the over,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: So the money's fading that. But you have two pretty
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: questionable starters here. Man. I still think the bullpens are
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: pretty questionable. The offenses do have the capability here. It's
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark. Two. I think Over makes sense
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: to me in this one. But yeah, the money's fading it.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: I don't really know why. Uh, seventy three percent of
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety six percent of the cash on Arizona for
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: what that's worth there, it minus won twenty two here.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily want to disagree, but Surezer does have
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: the better matchup numbers still, but current form is awful
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: for him. So I think there is more, you know,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: maybe upside and better current form with Gollen. I still
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: don't think I could really do it, though, I think
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: it Over is probably the opinion that I have there.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: Like I said, San Diego and Anaheim to finish this off,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: Anaheim beat San Diego eight nothing yesterday, despite returning home
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: from beating the Yankees eleven to four in the last
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: game they played against the Yankees crossing the country. I
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: don't know how Anaheim was able to win in a
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: shutout again. Well, I do know Soriano, Dude, Soriano might
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: be something. Man. I mean, he was bad, like really
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: bad at home last year, but that looks like it's
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: not the case anymore, because I'll have to look at
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: the box score. But it looks like he was really
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: good in that game. So we might have to adjust
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit and admit that is actually really good.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: This could be a bounce back for San Diego now,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: though maybe there's a little bit of a letdown home
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: return spot here for Anaheim. Maybe san Diego bounces back here.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: Both these teams were hot to some extent I think
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: coming into this series. I guess Anaheim they only split
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees, but they actually played really well in
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: that series, could have won all four games. San Diego
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: used a lot of bullpen yesterday. These well four relief pitchers,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: but their bullpen is good, and some of their better
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: relievers didn't come into the game yesterday, including their closer,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: of course Miller. They still have the better bullpen. I
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: don't think Anaheim's bullpen is particularly good. They used three relievers,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: although our boy syl Seth, who's still on this team
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: and coming out of the bullpen only went for one pitch.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: He's the guy that the Tower game guys like to
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: make fun of me when I made that short at
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: top Lobster's House. Got that play right, by the way,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: if you go find that short on my channel from
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: way back then. Syl Seth was making the start in
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: that game and I played on Anaheim. I think in
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: that one we got it right in the first five inning.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: He's been anyway. Yeah, that's the only thing I know
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: about him. But we're we got to handicap this game
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: as a whole here, man. I think San Diego pretty
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: clearly as the bullpen edge. They have the best bullpen
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: the ra in baseball, sorry, second best to the Braves.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: They have the They're tied for the third best whip
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: with Arizona, which is ridiculous. San Diego is like an
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: elite bullpen though, and their best relievers are still around
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: for this game. Definitely, they have the bullpen edge here
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: over Anaheim. Not a good bullpen for Anaheim. They're twenty first,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: so they've been a little bit better, I guess recently,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: but still I think they're pretty bad offensively. Anaheim actually
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: has hit well either fourth in ops, so their offense
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: definitely has been putting up numbers this year. I don't
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: think they're this good, but I don't know. Man, if
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: Trout stays healthy for once, they could be better than
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: what we think. Like part of the reason why their
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: offense has been so bad. I don't want to I
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: don't think one guy matters that much. But Trout has
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: like not been healthy for years and currently he is,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: so take that into account. San Diego's offense is probably
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: the lesser of the two. They're nineteenth right now in ops,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: they haven't really come around. I think they're an okay offense.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: Herman Marquez's pitcher of San Diego, this is a really
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: ugly starting pitching matchup Marquez. He's not good man, you know,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: change of scenery should help him a little bit, but
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: because he doesn't have to pitch for Colorado anymore and
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: pitch in Colorado. But five point five four ERA, one
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: point six to nine whip these are bad numbers, obviously,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: ten to four strike a walk ratio, nothing great about that.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: Eighteen hits a lout in thirteen innings not good stuff,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: although I guess he's been a little bit better in
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: his last two outings. Had to pitch at home against
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: Colorado in San Diego. Still allowed three home runs in
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: that out, so that's pretty bad. He's allowed five home
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: runs in thirteen innings despite not pitching in course field anymore.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: That's not good. Against Anaheim, his numbers are actually not
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: bad and forty two at bats seven to three strike
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio two thirty eight average allowed, seven to
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: seventeen ops. Those are all right numbers. Maybe he will
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of a matchup Bedge. I don't
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: know he's going up against Usa Kakuchi. His numbers are
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: really bad this year seven point five ERA, one point
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: eight to nine whip. But throughout his entire career he's
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: been better at home, so usually you really want to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: fade him on the road, not so much at home.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: His one home start was better than the rest this year, though,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: wasn't very good, but it was a five inning, four
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: run performance against Atlanta, who has been hitting well. And
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: the good thing about it is he had an eight
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: to one strike out walk ratio on that outing. So
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: he is still better at home. But his overall numbers
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: are very bad nineteen to ten strike out walk raceio,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: twenty four hits a lout in eighteen innings. That's all
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: really bad. He's coming off getting blown up at the Yankees.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: They still should have won that game because the offense
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: was there for them. Blew it in the ninth They
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: blew it in the ninth inning. Man, But yeah, Kakuchie
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: was not good in that game, but it was at
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: the Bronx. I mean you can kind of give him
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a pass for that. But his
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: numbers are bad against San Diego. In one hundred and
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: three of bats twenty seven to ten, strike up, walk
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: ratio three ZHO one, batting average allowed, eight eighty seven ops.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: Those are bad numbers. The money is still back in
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: Kokuchi though, maybe just because he is better at home.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, they're at minus one oh seven.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: They flip to the favorite. Fifty nine percent of the
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: tickets are on San Diego, fifty four percent of the
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: cash on Anaheim. I somewhat disagree with that. I think
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: after yesterday's game, you know San Diego might be in
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: a bounce back. The matchup numbers look a little bit
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: better for Marquez. I think you have a bullpen edge
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: for San Diego. I think I would slightly lean that way,
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: but I think it over actually does make sense here
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: the numbers up to nine and a half juice to
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: the over the starting pitchers. When I first saw the
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, the first thing that came into my
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: mind was over. Even though Marquez has the better matchup
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: numbers than you would think, Kakuchi is at home. So
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: maybe it's not the strongest idea to do it, but
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: that number has gone up from that key number of nine.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: It's always you know, already with the hook and headed
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: towards ten. Eighty three percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. So yeah, the money
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: is indicating on the over. Do with that information what
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: you want. I do have a slight agreement with the over.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: You have to dodge San Diego's bullpen, but you know
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit unrested right now, and Anaheim's bullpen
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: is bad, so I you know, and like I always say,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: if the starting pitching does bad, it kind of dominoes
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: into the bullpens. So when you go over, I think
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: usually you just want to go full game with it
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: and not worry about if the bullpen's are good or not.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: But bad bullpens obviously does still help an over though,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: which makes it like an elite play, which is why
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: I thought. That's why I liked that over yesterday that
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: we won on because the bad bullpens certainly came into
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: play there as well. All right, so we only have
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: one play. I already gave you my one play in baseball.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be right back because I do have to
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: leave not too long as well, but we got to
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: talk about NHL playoffs. There are three games today for
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: some reason, it's three and not four, and we do
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: have four NBA games to talk about, and I don't
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: have any plays in them, but we will talk about
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: them in a second. I'll be back in a second.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: We'll do NHL next, probably because it's the less interesting
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: of the two. I think it's interesting, but I think
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't really like it. Yeah, I'm definitely an
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: anti dentite. I hate this stuff. I'm not a fan
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: of it at all. It's like a test every time
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: you go, and you're just wondering, you know what they're
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: gonna say about it? Though, you know, my teeth are
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: really not bad, But like I don't know, every time
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: I go, I just have this bad feeling about I've
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: had a lot of fillings, man, so whenever I go
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, something bad is gonna come out of this.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to go back and have more work done.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: I hate it all. I absolutely hate it, but I'll
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: be right back. Yeh, all right, NHL playoffs begin man playoffs.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: Let's h I'm gonna close some of these tabs. He
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: always have a ton up for baseball here, all right,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: Autaw what Carolina is the first game up three pm
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon. ESPN is having a triple header here,
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: so you know, a good TV spot that hockey gets,
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: at least on the main sports network here. Ottawa Carolina.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: I know our pal Jeffery, who's up there, likes Audaway
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: to win this series, has money on them, but he
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: didn't get the best number on it because the line
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: has gone up. As we talked about when I did
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: my bracket last night, the line has gone up on Carolina. Now.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: The one thing is I think Ottawa probably does have
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: the better goaltender here with Olmark, so maybe that's a
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge with Carolina kind of mixing
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: up between Bussy, who's a really young goalie but he
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: looks really talented the Bussy and Anderson, who's there older,
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: the guy that used to like be their standard goaltender.
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: He's getting a bit older and hasn't been as good.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina is looking to find a way to mix the two.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: Of course, Bussy is going to be inexperienced. Don't love
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: that goaltending situation here, so Ottawa might have an advantage there.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: Ottawa does, I guess, somewhat kind of plays similarly to
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: that Florida team that always gave Carolina problems. Still, I'm
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: not sure if I see it though. I mean, this
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: Carolina team definitely has an experienced edge, though, like they've
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: been through the playoffs multiple years. It seems like they
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: always get to the conference finals and then lose. You know,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good read on this game. Though
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: Carolina finished pretty hot. They went four to the last five.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of times they like to fade, so like
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: generally this applies to NBA in an age, O'll generally
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: like the d I hear very loud sirens out there.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: I absolutely hate that. I tend to like to fade
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: like what a team did at the end of the season,
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: because the playoffs are kind of like a reset. So
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: if like a good team just kind of packed it
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: in or ely and looked bad at the end of
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: the season. I like to maybe play on them in
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: the first game. If a team was too hot at
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: the end of the season, I kind of looked to
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: go against them. And the other thing is you want
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: to maybe look towards unders and potentially unders early in
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: these games, both NHL and NBA in the first game,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: because you have teams that have been off for a
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: bit now, so that can kind of cool off the offenses.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: Especially in the NBA though, that can cool off the offenses,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: and you know, the defenses come out more ready to go,
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: and it tends to be like teams, you know, they
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: don't want to make mistakes early on, so they take
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: less risks early on in these playoff games, you know
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: what I mean, the defense has come out with more intensity.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: So all of that to consider. Yeah, So actually I
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: gotta look at an Autowa here for a minute. Here
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: Ottawa they finished the season hot as well, though, so
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: both teams finished pretty strong. Ottawa had to because they
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: were still trying to make the playoffs. They're a wild
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: card here. They won five of their last six, but
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: their only loss being that close loss in New Jersey.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: Then I do like to look at what are these
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: teams doing their regular season series. ESPN actually makes that
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: easier to do. Now, Carolina won two out of the
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: three games. It looks like I don't know if the
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: bottom team was the home team in the in these games,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: looks like Carolina won on the road at Ottawa, then
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: they won it home against Ottawa, and then they lost
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: the last game at Ottawa. But that was a game
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: where Carolina already sworda was locked into their seed already,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: so Ottawa needed that game a lot more, you know
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: what I mean. So I think that's kind of a
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: misleading result that Audiwa won that game six to three.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: There was an empty netter there, but Ottawa just needed
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: the game way more because Carolina, you know, was basically
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: just kind of playing for adjusting their seeding, whereas Audiwa
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: was trying to still make the playoffs. So I don't
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: think there's that much stock to be put into that game.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina is getting the money. They're up to minus one
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: fifty three seventy two tickets ninety six percent of the
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: cash on them. Money looks like it is indicating on
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: the under for what that's worth total is pretty low
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: at five and a half. Possibly we'll get good goal
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: to any both ways here, I don't necessarily disagree with
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: an under. I know, I almost never agree with an
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: under in hockey pretty much, I just stay away. But
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: obviously I'm not recommending a play on this, but first
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: playoff game, maybe it will be kind of a more
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: defensive intensity type of a game here. Always risk, you know,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: having a tie there though, and having to you know, well, well,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: the two two tie being broken would still give you
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: a under five and a half, though sixty take a
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on the over. I'm
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: gonna agree with Carolina slightly though. Again, I think they
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: did have the upper hand in the regular season series,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: and I think that last game can kind of be
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: thrown out a little bit. So, yeah, Kyle, what's up man?
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: Why did YouTube not notify what's going on? You have
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: the notifications turned on right like in the the bell
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: thing there? When where you subscribe? I don't know, all right,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I'll slightly lean to Carolina there. You guys
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: know I took them in my brackets or whatever. Minnesota
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: at Dallas is the next game up. This is gonna
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: be a pretty good series. These two teams are close
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: to even as far as the oddsmakers are telling you, though,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: I I actually think Dallas is the slightly better team.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: Though Dallas has more experience with deep playoff runs, it
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: seems like they keep getting to the conference finals and losing,
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: just like Carolina. You know, Carolina doesn't have Florida in
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: the way now. But you know, I but as you
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: saw in my bracket special last night, I don't have
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: Carolina winning the conference Dallas. I do have Dallas winning
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: the series. You know, I think the experience is fairly large.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: I do actually think Dallas has the better goalie with
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: Ottinger over whoops. I don't want to look at that
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: the regular season schedule. I just need to see how
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: they finished, But yeah, I think Ottinger is a little
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: bit better than Gustuson Here. Dallas finished hot though they
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: won five games in a row. But you know, maybe
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: that momentum will be slowed down a little bit. And
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: they did beat Minnesota here, which was still a game
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: that kind of mattered because they were still playing for
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: home ice in this series, and Dallas beat them five
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: to four at home. So maybe there will be a
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: little bit of an adjustment for Minnesota, but they gave
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: was so close that I don't think it's gonna matter
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: that much. But I do worry that Dallas finished really hot,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: so sometimes that team will cool off a little bit,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: whereas Minnesota did not. Minnesota lost their last three or
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: they lost three of their last four games and then
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: finally beat Anaheim to finish. So if you go with that,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: you know, momentum being stalled type of thing, Yeah, you know,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: it might hurt Dallas a little bit. I usually look
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: at how good these teams are at home, by the way,
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota has a pretty good road record, though Dallas
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: decent at home, but Minnesota actually pretty good on the road.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: Let me see here, as far as the regular season
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: series is concerned, we already know, like I said, Dallas
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: won the last game. These teams split the season series
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: two and two, and the home team won every game,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, and one of the wild home wins
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: was an overtime win. So home team does look like
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: it has a bit of an edge here. That of
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: course is Dallas. They are pretty good at home, although
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: again Minnesota is good on the road, but the home
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: team won every game during the regular season series, money
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Dallas there a minus won twenty
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the cash
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: on them. Very similar market read to the other game,
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: where the money is coming in on the on the
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: five and a half under as well, eighty four percent
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: of tickets, sixty five percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: So the money is indicating on the under, I should say,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: even though the five and a half is juiced to
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: the over. So the market read is saying under in
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: both of these games, is saying both home favorites as well.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree. I just don't really have a
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on these games. Like I said a lot
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: of times, I like to wait and then zigzag what
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: we saw in the previous game, you know. I mean
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: I think that's where you can really get the best,
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: get the best of some of these series here, you know.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: So that's what we got going on there. Yeah, I
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot else there. Oh, I was
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: gonna look at Yeah, Carolina is home record here. I
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: forgot to really call that out. It's good to know
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: everything in the playoffs. Yeah, Carolina was really good at
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: home twenty nine ten and two. Ottawa not is good
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: on the road really, although slightly above five hundred, but
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: Carolina may have a decent home ice advantage there, all right,
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh the Battle of Pennsylvania here in dressing
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: game for sure. Like I said last night, I think
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has the better goaltending and the better defense. Pittsburgh
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: is more of a finesse team. Philadelphia finished strong when
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: he's six of their last seven, but they did that
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: because they had to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh did finish bad.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: They lost three games in a row to finish the season.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: So that is the type of situation where I do
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: kind of like to lean towards that team that finished cold,
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Because Pittsburgh the reason that
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: happened was they were locked into their seed already, you
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, So they just didn't play with
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of effort in those last few games. But
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: then the problem is you have to balance that with
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: the fact that I like better defense, and that is Philadelphia.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: I don't like the goaltending on Pittsburgh. With Skinner that
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: they got over from Edmonton. Yeah, he's an experienced goalie.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: He's played in the playoffs, so we'll give him that.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: I think Pittsburgh has a little bit of an experience
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: edge there, but Philadelphia's defense and golding has been better,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: so you have to try to weigh all that and
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: the style. I just don't like Pittsburgh. You know, it's finesse.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: They get all the weight behind their name because they
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: still have crossed me and whatever. But he's so old now,
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: you know, he's just not as good as he once
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: was and whatever. So this is a hard game to read.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: You know. I took Philadelphia to win the series in
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: my bracket. The money, I'm surprised that the public is
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: not on Pittsburgh here. That's what surprises me. Fifty three
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets and fifty one percent of the
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: cash on Philadelphia. Philadelphia does look like one of those
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: dreaded public underdogs here. Pittsburgh is up to minus one
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: forty four based on how Pittsburgh finished the season cold
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: and looked worse than they actually are. I might slightly
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: lean to Pittsburgh just because of the spot coming into
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: this game, even though I did say I like Philadelphia
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: to win a more grinding series here with the better deepfense.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: But I think in this game, situation kind of makes
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: more sense to lean towards Pittsburgh, and that is the
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: way the money is going. This total is a little
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: bit higher at six, but it's gone down a little bit.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: The money is kind of coming in on the over
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: in that game, for what it's worth. But I think
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: it's correlated, right, because, like I said, Pittsburgh is offense,
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's deepfense generally, so an undergame benefits Philadelphia and overgame
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: benefits Pittsburgh. So I think those are correlated. All right,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: I'm just checking out what the money's doing in these
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: games that we have tomorrow, all right, NBA to finish
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: this off here, we have four NBA games here. All
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: of these are on Amazon Prime except the night games
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: on ABC, which is part of the ESPN family Amazon Prime.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: It's kind of lame having to go to streaming series
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: streaming platforms to watch these. It's so stupid, dude. Toronto
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland is the first game up Cleveland. I mean,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: they're definitely the better team here. They finished the season
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: pretty hot though as well, so maybe you don't necessarily
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: want to be on a team that finished hot. They
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: beat a lot of bad teams at the end of
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: the season. Cleveland did win a lot of kind of
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: close ish games. So that is one concern with Cleveland
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: is they weren't really a blowout team. They didn't really
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: blow their opponents out. Toronto finished winning three of their
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: last four. Not a whole lot to see there. Really.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: They beat Brooklyn to finish the season. They did have
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: a couple of decent wins in there against Miami. You know,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: it's hard to gauge based on the finish that these
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: teams had. There's not really much there to see now.
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: The regular season series is actually, you know, kind of crazy.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: What people don't realize. Toronto won all three games against
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: Cleveland this year, two of them in Cleveland, Toronto three
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: and zero against Cleveland. But the issue with that is
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: those games were all in October and November, so these
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: teams were not what they are now. I don't know
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: what injuries might have been at play there. Cleveland obviously
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: didn't have heard and yet, so I think you can
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: kind of throw these games out. To be honest, these
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: teams are just not the same now, and I think
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: that might skew people in the direction of Toronto. Oh
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: my god, Toronto won all three games against Cleveland. But
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: then again, the public might not even pay attention to that.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: They don't even dive this deep into these games usually,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. It is very interesting. It's an
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: interesting quirk. Toronto is actually not a terrible road team.
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: They're above five hundred on the road. Cleveland was kind
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: of mediocre at home. Really, they had a decent home record,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: but not as good as some of these other teams did.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: So it's it's tough to gauge this. Cleveland's an eight
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: point favorite, they're a little bit public, fifty nine percent
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: of tickets and cash on them. Obviously, I think Cleveland
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: wins this series. If you saw my bracket special last night,
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the over for what that's where
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: two up to two twenty and half. But you know,
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: I said that I like unders more in these first games,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: especially like first half. Unders make more sense when teams are,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: you know, feeling each other out early and their offenses
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: are coming in a little bit cold. Uh. But in
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: this game, do with this information what you want. But
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: the market read is kind of saying to lean towards Raptors.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: Plus the points and money coming in on the over,
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: I kind of Cleveland a little bit though, just because
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: the Raptors won all three regular season meetings. I don't know, man,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: I think I would lay it with Cleveland, even though
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: I know they really did not have a bunch of
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: blowout wins. They got a win by nine basically to
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: get you that win, which does worry me a little bit.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: And Raptors have been the Raptors have been pretty good
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: as a road dog this year, so there is that
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: I think, But yeah, I don't know. I lean slightly
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: towards Cleveland, but I don't have a good opinion on it.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Denver is probably gonna be a fun series.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: Denver's only a six and a half point favorite, seventy
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash on them,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: So the money is indicating on Denver a little bit.
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: Here money is indicating towards the under a little bit
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: after it did go up on the total to two
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: thirty two. But we have seventy six percent of tickets,
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: seventy percent of the cash on the under. This is
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: a game where I think the total is correlated. Even
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: though yes, there is that thing about you know that
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: I just said, like these games tend to go under
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: in Game one because you get cold offense early, more
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: intense deepfense, et cetera. But the Tea Wolves, they want
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: to play under style game and they're the underdog here,
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: but they're the better defense. The Nuggets have not been
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: a great deepfense this year, but they're the much better offense.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: The Nuggets are an elite offense, like number one in
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: the NBA probably, so that's the difference here. The Tee
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: Wolves are gonna have to keep this game a bit
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: slower to be in this game. But the Tea Wolves
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: have given Denver some issues in the past. You know,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: these teams seem to play in the playoffs all the time,
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: and the Tea Wolves have done pretty well against Denver,
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: so that might be a concern for Denver. Denver finished
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: the season beating Okay Seance in Antonio. That doesn't make
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: me love Denver here, even though the money's coming in
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: on Denver. That hut finish to the season doesn't make
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: me like them that much. Minnesota did finish with two
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: wins as well, but against Houston, which was good, and
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: New Orleans, which was not good. So from a momentum perspective,
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: I actually think Minnesota does have a little bit of
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: an advantage here. You know, I like the better deepfense
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: getting points here. That kind of has me leaning towards
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota as well. Denver is actually not as good at
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: home as you would think, like they play in the elevation,
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: but twenty eight and thirteen at home, that's not great.
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: Minnesota fairly good on the road at twenty three and eighteen,
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: So I don't think the home advantage is as strong
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: as people might think it is for Denver. And looking
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: at the regular season at meetings here, Denver did win
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: three out of the four games. Denver won at Minnesota twice,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: then also won at home but in overtime, and then
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: Minnesota won the most recent game at Denver, which I
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened in that game, Maybe there were
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: some injuries going on. Now Denver does have Aaron Gordon back.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: Their defense is definitely better with Aaron Gordon on the course,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: Denver does have some depth here. But you know, I
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: think overall, yeah, you could argue that Denver should zig
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: zag after losing that last game to Minnesota, and Denver
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: kind of dominated the season series otherwise, but all three
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: of those other games that they the three games that
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: they won were all early in the season, and one
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: was an overtime game at home, so they didn't win
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: it by that much, even though they won the other
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: two games by double digits. But Minnesota didn't get blown
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: out in any of the games. I leaned slightly to
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves plus the points here, That's what I
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: would do, and probably then it means I guess it
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: is slightly towards the under there as well, but not
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: a game I'm gonna have any involvement him Hawks Knicks
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: this game. The Knicks are really good at home. I mean,
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: that's one thing that needs to be known about this.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: The Hawks have been okay on the road above five hundred,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: but the Knicks are way better at home than on
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: the road. So the Knicks have some of the most
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: significant home roads splits thirty and ten at home, and
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: they're almost five hundred on the road, so the Knicks
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: should have a bit of an advantage here at home. However,
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: the Hawks actually won at the Knicks this year. The
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: road team actually won every game during the regular season.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: The Knicks won twice at Atlanta and the Hawks won
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: by what is this twelve The only time they played
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: at Madison Square Carden, which is interesting. That game was
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: in January. The most recent matchup. The Knicks won at home,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: but they are won on the road. They won by
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: three on the road. That was a game where I
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: thought Atlanta had more to play for in that game, though,
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta still failed. So that's actually not a good
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: sign for Atlanta here. But one thing you could say
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: is that if you look at the three results here,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: the Knicks won both road games by three lost at
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: home by twelve, so Atlanta covered this number every game.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: So the Knicks have not been able to beat Atlanta
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: by more than three in any game this season. But
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: you know, you got to take that with a little
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: bit of grain of salt. I guess the Knicks finished
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: with an ugly loss to Charlotte to end the season.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: I think maybe they will then use this as kind
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: of a reset. Atlanta finished a little bit hotter all though.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: They actually did lose three of their last four though,
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: including getting blown out by Miami, so they might show
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: up here. But the problem with Atlanta is they did
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: not have that many huge wins Towards the end of
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: the season. They were mostly beating up on bad teams.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: Then they did finally get a couple of good wins
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: in here against Detroit and Boston. I guess Orlando and
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: then Cleveland is a good win, but you know, I
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: don't know. Atlanta wasn't beating the best of the best
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: there really for the most part of the Yeah, they
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: did get three good wins towards the end of the season.
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna lean to the Knicks here, though
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 1: I think they're the better team. I think both teams
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: will show up here. Knicks are at five and a half.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in towards the over though, seventy
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: nine percent tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: the over, and I think this is also a correlated
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: total here. I think the Hawks want this to be
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: an over game. The Hawks, I think they go faster,
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: They take a lot of threes, so I think the
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: Hawks want this game to go over. The Knicks probably
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: would prefer an undergame, although that might make it more
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: difficult for them to cover. So those are kind of
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: in conflict with each other. The fact the money is
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Knicks and the over here, I'm
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: gonna lean knix them, and maybe if it is a
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: higher scoring game, it might make it easier in a
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: way for them to cover because it's just more points
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: they'll be scored. Now, if the Hawks are gonna do
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: damage in the series, they're gonna have to be hitting threes,
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: and the Knicks do allow a lot of threes. So
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: that's like the one thing that might keep the series
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: maybe closer than people expect. I think it's gonna be
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: one of the more competitive series that we do have, Like,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: I think it might be a very home centric series though,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: with the way the Knicks have huge home road splits,
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: although that hasn't been the case in the regular season
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: at all, which is crazy that the regular season went
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: the complete opposite way, but maybe, you know, small sample size,
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: that was probably a little bit of an outlier. Okay,
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: so slightly into the Knicks for me. And then Houston
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: at Lakers on ABC the night game. Houston's a five
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: point favorite here, but of course we know that's because
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: Luca is not playing. Reeves is not playing. Houston is
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: a pretty big favorite here, But Luca might come back
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: at some point during the series. Man, he is not
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: coming back yet for this game. I don't believe. It
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: looks like Kevin Durant is on the injury report, I
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: think he'll play. Though it looks like he's supposed to
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: play today. I think it probably just you know, oldness management.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: Probably Reeves and daun Chicch are supposed to be out
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: for a bit longer. Although again, like I said, Luca,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: I think is already pretty close to coming back. Reeves
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think is anyway, what do we do with
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: this game? I mean, the Lakers are getting five and
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: a half at home here now. The Lakers, for most
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: of the season, they did bad as an underdog for
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: most of the season. Whenever they were installed as an underdog,
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: they pretty much lost and failed to cover. Until late
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: in the season they actually started covering as an underdog
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: and doing better, which maybe they'll be able to do here.
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: The Lakers, I worry about their defense still though their
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: defense is still not totally up to par. You know,
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: Lebron's a bit older, his defense is pretty questionable at
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: this point. The Lakers finished with three wins, but I
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: don't know how much we can really draw from that
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: against two playing teams and Utah Houston they're you know,
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: they're in better current form right now. They did finish
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: with a win over Memphis, so that's kind of whatever.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: They beat some bad teams down the stretch too, for
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: the most part though, But Minnesota finished really hot though.
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: But I think it's actually excuse me, why am I
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: saying Minnesota Houston. Excuse me? Houston finished really hot, but
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: they beat a lot of bad teams in here. Like
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: I said, Houston did lose to Minnesota at home, but
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: that might actually help them, because if Minnesota was coming
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: into this game on like a twelve game win streak
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: or whatever, I would not want them because this could
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: like just totally end that momentum. But the fact that
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: they lost their second to last game I think might
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: actually help Houston coming into this. However, I just think
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: the line is too high, dude. The money's coming in
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: on the Lakers. I think it's an overreaction to all
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: the injuries for the Lakers. I think it's not really
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: an injured players spot because the Lakers have already played
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: without these guys for a while. But again, I just
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: think the line is just overinflated towards the Rockets because
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: of the injuries. Fifty six percent of tickets around Houston,
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of the cash on the Lakers so
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't really want the Lakers in this injury
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: situation that they're in. I'm gonna lean Lakers here plus
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: the points, and the total is also low. I think
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play any of these games, I
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: think it would be actually the Lakers plus the point
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: because it agrees with the market, and I think it's
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: just pretty clear there is some value in that number there.
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: But matchup wise, I don't know, because the Rockets do
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: have the better depfense, but you prefer to have the
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: better defense as an underdog. Money is coming in towards
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: the under. It's a low total, dude, for an NBA
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: game at too o eight. What are we in the nineties? Again, No,
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: in the nineties would be even lower than that. But
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: to a weight is low. Uh, So it looks like
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be you know, maybe Lakers struggling to score
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: without some of their offensive weapons. Obviously, Rockets like to
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: play more of a defensive game. I don't disagree with
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: the under. Seventy eight percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash on the under. You'd
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: think that the under would help the Rockets, but I
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's gonna help them cover as a
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: road favorite. You know a lot of times a lower
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: scoring kind of grinding game means that home dog is
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be staying in that game. Yeah, I would lean
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: to the Lakers in the under in that one. And
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: that's it. It's gonna do it for today, man. I'll
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: be back to talk more playoffs stuff tomorrow, more game
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 1: ones tomorrowhere. I don't know I'm gonna have any plays or not,
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: but I don't really see anything that I really love today.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: Once again, we only have one play today. We're being
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: super selective. First five under the three and a half
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: in raise Pirates there, which is Rasmussen and Schemes. I
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: like that starting pitching matchup. That's what we're going with.
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it doesn't get blown up by a bad inning
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: or something. Let's go, let's get that under. That's gonna
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: do it. I appreciate it. Gonna you know, head into
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: the torture chamber and it's gonna be death. I know
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be bad anyway. Whatever. Learn a tone on Twitter,
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: and learn a tone on Instagram. Check it all out, like,
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here and get the notifications. Sometimes
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: when I go live so yeah, do all that listen
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: on audio as well. It helps me out. The numbers
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: have been going up on audio, so that's good at least. Apple, Spotify,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: Spreaker covered in you because my juke channel on YouTube,
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, Slash learned to Toad for some bonus stuff.
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: Loser casts Tuesday nights, and I think that is it
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: for now. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Guys, William,
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: what's up? You're in right at the end of the
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: show though, man, thank you, sir, thank you. Everybody all right, peace.
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: M