Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 157 - 11/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 157 - 11/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 157 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. The work week rolls on.
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We have a jam packed sports betting card tonight pretty much
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across the entire sports betting marketplace.
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So big day today guys as we try to eke out a winning day.
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I have a 5 pack of sweats overall excited to share with
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you today, including two college football games.
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Couple matching matchups here for tonight.
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I'm looking at a sharp side as well as a sharp total.
1:00
Then going to get a little bit deeper into college basketball.
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Remember we won our first one with Ohio State the other night.
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I'm going to focus on some a pair, a very obscure sharp line
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moves, very low back games. Public really isn't focusing on
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these two games, but we have a good rhythm edge, We have a good
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Ken Palm edge and we have a good sharp line move.
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So stay tuned for two under the radar college basketball sides.
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And then we're going to go right back to the well with our NBA
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system match, which is my favorite, the low total by low
1:27
over. When a total falls quite a bit
1:30
creates an opportunity again to buy low and take that over.
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So we got a good play here, hopefully in the NBA, a late
1:36
night sweat on the West Coast. So A5 pack overall, you guys
1:39
know the drill. Can we find a way to eke out
1:41
three or more that is the goal and have a winning day.
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Now before we recap yesterday, I want to mention one thing.
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Congratulations to those of you who live in the state of
1:50
Missouri because Missouri legalized sports betting
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yesterday and boy, it was not easy.
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I looked at the the final result here.
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This is, I don't know if you want to call it a backdoor cover
2:00
or eking out a win or whatever sports betting analogy you want
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to make, but legalized betting in the in the state of Missouri,
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it passed, but did you guys see the results?
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It was 50.1% yes to legalize betting, 49.9% no.
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So literally the thinnest of margins here, 50.1 versus 49.9.
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I'd like to tell anyone who thinks that their vote doesn't
2:24
matter. You hear that a lot.
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Why should I vote? My vote doesn't matter?
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Well, if you live in Missouri and you voted yes on sports
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betting, your vote definitely mattered.
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So it's always exciting for me to see another state legalize
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betting. That just means from a
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contrarian standpoint, more public is going to enter the
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market and hopefully that's going to create even more value
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to go contrarian. And just in the event of, hey,
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you should legalize sports betting, you should be allowed
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to make the decision on your own whether or not you want to bet.
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But why should we keep it illegal and fund the, you know,
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kind of maybe the, the shady adventures out there?
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Why not legalize it, tax it, use the tax revenue, hopefully to
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improve the lives of people in some way or another, Whether
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it's filling a pothole or, I don't know, giving, giving some
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money to schools, whatever the case may be, I always love it.
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We have a new state to legalize. So Congrats to Missouri, all you
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Mizzou sports bettors out there. Now looking back to our last
3:15
night, guys, after a great Monday, 4 and 1 + 2.51 units,
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disappointing night. Last night, just one in three
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-2.3 units across the NHL Flames came through for us.
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But the Wild, the Lightning in the Senators all lost.
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And again, you're going to have that.
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There's some volatility in in hockey.
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But the Minnesota Wild one was crazy to me because sharp line
3:35
move, the Kings run the second leg of a back-to-back.
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Felt like a great spot there to back the Wild.
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They end up losing. I want to say what was the
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score? 5 to one?
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Couple of those hockey games really weren't even close.
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So either way, guys, we're back at it today.
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We got a lot on Monday. We gave it back a little bit
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last night. Let's see if we can get back to
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our winning ways for today. So I want to start off the pod
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today with some college football because there are two games
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tonight and wouldn't you know it, both matching games
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matching, which again is apropos named or whatever, you know,
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kind of abbreviation you want to call it Mid-Atlantic Conference.
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But these games, I think we're going to get them pretty much
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weekdays for the rest of the year.
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And there's always crazy things that happen in the match and for
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whatever reason. So I'm hoping that we can get a
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couple winners here for tonight. So I want to start start off
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with first a complaint. Both games are at 7:00 Eastern
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Time tonight. Can you give me a 7 and an 8A7
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and A10A6 and an 8? I mean, can we break these up a
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little bit anyway? My, my complaints always fall on
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deaf ears. But first they notice is both
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games are at 7. Come on, what are you doing
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anyway? Let's focus on quote UN quote,
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the first one here, at least by the NSS or the Vegas ID number,
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which is always that 3 digit number to the left of the game,
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Ohio and Kent State. Now couple things going on with
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this one. Let's set the stage and I'm
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going to give you my bet. First off, going to this one, we
4:50
have two teams that are trending in completely opposite
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directions. Ohio is five and three.
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They've won three of their last four.
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They just crushed Buffalo 47 to 16, easily covering as a 3 1/2
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point home favorite. You know Kent State, Julian
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Edelman's alma mater. It's been a bad year for Kent
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State. O and eight.
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They're winless on the season. They just lost to Western
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Michigan 52 to 21 didn't come or actually I guess came a little
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bit close, but didn't cover as a 19 point Rd. dog.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, it looks like the pro and Joe betting is it in agreement
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playing Ohio here because Ohio opened this game around a -,
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1919 point Rd. favorite. Now Ohio has been bet up to -20
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1/2. In Ohio, it's not just public.
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They're getting 66% of spread bets, but they're also getting
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84% of spread dollars. So low bets, higher dollars,
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line move. If you look on paper, seems like
5:41
Ohio is really the better team here.
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They're averaging 25 points per game on offense, only 17 for
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Kent State. And Ohio's only giving up 23.
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On defense, Kent State's giving up 46 1/2.
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They've been very, very bad defensively here.
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So makes total sense. It's a big number, but it
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doesn't look like just public. Looks like some smart money as
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well. If you tell me you want to lay
6:02
it with Ohio, normally I'd say, hey, on the road, laying a huge
6:05
number like that in the conference game, not my cup of
6:08
tea, but you do have the low bets, higher dollar sharp line
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move. If you like Ohio, I'm not going
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to, I'm not going to argue with you.
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There's some good sharp movement, not just public
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movement in your favor. What I want to focus on is the
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total here. And one thing just jumped out to
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me, the lines moving toward Ohio.
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So maybe Ohio in a blowout, but also the total, it really hasn't
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moved that much. You know, you open up this total
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around 52 and a half, 53. Some shops did creep up a little
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bit toward 53. You're kind of hanging around 53
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right now. However, a lot of these 50
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threes are now falling a little bit down to 52 1/2.
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And I see a couple books that are juiced up to the under, So
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52 1/2 under -115 And the reason why that's notable is that the
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public is hammering the over. 72% of bets are going over.
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They think this, you know, it's just going to be another high
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scoring game. And again, it makes sense.
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Yet Ohio just crushed Buffalo 4716.
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You know, you look at, you know, Kent State getting rolled by
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Western Michigan 52 to 21. You know, both those games are
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well into the 50s, sixties, 70s. So it makes sense say, you know,
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play the play the over here today, but it looks a little bit
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kind of fishy because you're getting three out of four bets
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on the over. Yet this line has stayed the
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same or is even starting to fall back down a little bit.
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So you have a pretty good bet split to the under only 29% of
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bets, but 41% of dollars are going toward the under.
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That's a sharp low bets, higher dollars bets split.
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It is a contrarian play as well. Now, nothing in the way of
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weather, low 60s, partly cloudy skies, five mile per hour winds.
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One thing that I was kind of really annoyed about last night
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is if you guys remember I said, hey, didn't see much on, you
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know, both of those college games last night, but it's a
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little bit windy and the totals have fallen.
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Why didn't I play both unders last night?
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Both unders went two and O. So sometimes in sports betting,
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it's not just the plays you make and lose.
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It's the ones that you kind of lean on, but for whatever reason
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you don't fire on. So I'm annoyed that I didn't
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play either of those windy unders last night.
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Anyway, the other angle here for the under is that both these
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teams are pretty slow in terms of pace of play.
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If you just kind of Google like college football pace of play,
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team rankings does a good job, but they basically look at how
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many plays do you run per game. Are you fast up tempo?
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Are you slow? Both these teams are pretty
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slow. Ohio is 96th in in pace of play.
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Kent State is 1/26. And remember, there's only 134
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teams. So you were at the very bottom
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of the barrel here for two pretty slow teams.
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So with the line going to Ohio and the total kind of falling a
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little bit, even though heavy batting over, you know, is this
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a 37 to 10 game? You know, something like that
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maybe that's kind of the the way we're kind of at least I'm
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interpreting the market. But again, if you like laying
8:45
the points here, I'm not going to blame you.
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I just hate to lay the worst of it after it's moved quite a bit.
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But I am going to go under here and I'm going to go under also,
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hopefully with a good rhythm edge under 52 1/2 because I have
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a rhythm model here that says the Ohio Kent State total should
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be 50.4. So again, you're getting some
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good AI back model and prediction here for a lower
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scoring game. So I'm not going to blame you if
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you take Ohio, you can even make the case Kent plus 21 is their
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value. Their big spread like that big
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number. I'd rather go with the total
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here guys. So I'm going to go Ohio and Kent
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State under 52 1/2 next game for you in Northern Illinois and
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Western Michigan, another match and play here.
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Going into it. We have Northern Illinois 4:00
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and 4:00. They have dropped, however, two
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straight games just lost the Ball State 2523.
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They're favored by 13 1/2 on the road there and they lost
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outright. On the flip side, Western
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Michigan five and three, they've won four straight.
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They just crushed Kent as we just mentioned, 5221 covering as
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a 19 point home favorite. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, you guys probably noticed
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this, but if you didn't one of our favorite system matches, dog
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to fave line move. You start as a dog, you flip to
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a favorite one of my favorite system matches here.
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It's just a very, you know, quick and easy dirty indicator
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here of smart money pushing one side and and come basically over
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the other. So in this case, dog to fave
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line move in favor of Northern Illinois.
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This game opened Western Michigan around a 1 1/2 point
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home favorite. Now it's flipped to Northern
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Illinois -1 1/2 on the road and some shops are even inching up
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toward 2. Now why is that notable?
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Obviously you have the dog to fave line move toward Northern
10:22
Illinois, but the other angle here is that we have basically a
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split ticket count. This is a 5050 bet split.
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What do we always talk about? With 5050 bet splits and a
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vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all.
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Theoretically, the the action is balanced.
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There's no need to, you know, bring the number up or down and
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in in terms of what the odds makers are looking at, even even
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take account. Let's just keep it where it is
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probably right there on the perfect number.
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However, anytime you see a line move when there's a 5050 bet
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split, that's notable to me because again, 5050 a line
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shouldn't move at all. Yet it is moving.
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So why is it moving? Mostly it's going to move
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because of smart money here unless there's a big injury or
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the weather's having an effect. But if you look at the bet
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split, the Huskies of Northern Illinois, Jimmy G his old team,
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but they are getting 51% of spread bets but 70% of spread
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dollars. So that's another thing I
11:10
noticed. I noticed the dog to fave line
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moved to Northern Illinois and I noticed a really good low bets
11:14
higher dollars bet split 5050 but more money on Northern
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Illinois. Now I'm going to go money line
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here. I don't want to lay a -. 1 1/2
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-. 2 matching is crazy. Crazy things happen.
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Missed extra points, safeties, who the heck knows.
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So I'm on the money line here. I got NIU on the money line at
11:32
-120 I don't want to have a one or two point win and push or
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lose my bet on the money line. Huskies are getting 47% bets but
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59% dollars. So the money line ticket count
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and bet split is sharp. Low bets, higher dollars.
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I'm going to bank on Northern Illinois defensively showing up
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tonight. They're only giving up eighteen
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points per game. Western Michigan is giving up 34
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points per game. Huskies are also kind of fishy
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by low. Like Northern Illinois has lost
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two straight, Western Michigan is 1/4 straight, and Western
12:01
Michigan is at home. So why is the line going to
12:03
Northern Illinois? Just makes no sense.
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You would think it would go toward Western Michigan at home
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playing better as of late. No, it's gone the other way.
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So it tells me we got smart money again here on Northern
12:13
Illinois. The other angle here, if you'll
12:16
get the total, I'd lean a little bit to the under.
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Very similar to the Ohio Kent State game.
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It opened around 52 1/2. It's down to 5251 1/2.
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Again, nothing crazy in the way of weather, but this total is
12:27
falling even though you're getting public betting on the
12:30
over. So it'd be a lean to the under
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for me, but you had me a dog to fave line move with a good 5050
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bet split but 70% money. So I'm on Northern Illinois
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money line. Win the damn game at -120 Some
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shops closer to -125 but I even like this a little bit more
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because of rhythm. I have two predictions here, the
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rhythm AI prediction in my Josh model.
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The rhythm prediction says Northern Illinois should be
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favored by 8.4 points and my Josh model says they should be
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favored by 3.3 points. So even if you take the lower
12:59
one, the 3.3 still an angle here, actionable edge hopefully
13:04
over the sports book. So I'm going to go Northern
13:06
Illinois and oh, by the way, our friend Robo Jackson, the hardest
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work in AI bought at Juice Reel. One of his two best bets today
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is on Northern Illinois. So let's go Huskies dog to fave.
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I'm on Northern Illinois money line -120 -, 125 along with the
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Ohio and Kent under 52 1/2. Now let's go over to some
13:25
college basketball. They're 22 games today in
13:28
college basketball, quite a few games that are heavily bet, but
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I'm going to actually kind of lean on what really I've been
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kind of working on the last couple years, which has really
13:37
been my go to. It's low bet, obscure games with
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sharp line moves as well as a good Ken Palm edge.
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So today's a good day to brush up on your Ken Palm.
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Now, if you have never used Ken palm, I mentioned it the other
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day when we had Ohio State as our first bet, but it's just a
13:53
great resource. Doesn't mean you kind of tail
13:55
every Ken Palm edge or you know, you kind of just, you know,
13:59
basically basically play everything.
14:00
But I use it as another cherry on top and I'm also excited to
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add a second cherry on top, two cherries on top, which would be
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the rhythm edge as well. So I like to go to the obscure
14:10
games, look at line movement, because my thought process is if
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this is a low back game that a lot of people aren't playing,
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why is the line moving? It's not moving because of the
14:18
public. It's moving because even though
14:19
the public isn't interested in that matchup, wise guys are.
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Again, wise guys don't care if it's a tiny little game on ESPN
14:26
plus or not even on TV or an added game extra game or if
14:30
it's, you know, Kentucky, UNC, they're going to get down based
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on if they have an edge over the books when it comes to their
14:36
model and their projections. So the first one I want to
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mention is an added game, extra game CS Northridge against
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Lemoyne, the Lemoyne Dolphins. Now, the first thing you're
14:46
going to notice about this one is the NSS or Vegas ID number.
14:50
This is game three O 672-930-6730.
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So what does that mean? It means that it's not one of
14:57
the regular 3 digit numbers. Like if you look at the all the
14:59
other games, six, 33634, yadda yadda, yadda.
15:03
Those are the easy games. Those are the more popular
15:05
games. When you get to the 6 digit
15:07
rotation number, this is what we call an added game or extra
15:10
game. So sometimes people tell me, oh,
15:12
I can't even find it on my app. What do you got to do?
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You got to go to a tab that says either more NCAB or extra NCAB.
15:18
Typically it's not on the main page, but my thought process
15:21
here is that if we're seeing movement, it's legit.
15:24
You know, cuz wise guys don't care about CS Northridge or,
15:27
sorry, the public doesn't care about CS Northridge and Lemoyne
15:30
tonight. They don't even want to play it,
15:32
but sharps do. And how do I know that?
15:34
Because this line's getting hit in favor of CS Northridge.
15:38
This game open Lemoyne at home, a very short favorite around -1
15:42
1/2. We've now flipped to CF N CS
15:44
Northridge, Cal State Northridge at -2 1/2.
15:48
So we just talked about that, that NIU game in football, but
15:51
this would be another dog to fave line open as Lemoyne short
15:54
favorite. It's now flipped to CFCS
15:56
Northridge as a short home favorite.
15:59
So even though the public doesn't care about this one
16:01
extremely little bet tells me wise guys hit CS Northridge.
16:05
Now my next angle here is let's look at what Ken Palm is
16:08
projecting for this game. So once you got to go to
16:11
kenpalm.com, you got to pay the membership.
16:13
It's one of the greatest deals around.
16:14
It's only 20 bucks a year, well worth it.
16:17
We're going to go to the basically the homepage that's
16:19
going to give you all the teams and their ratings.
16:21
What you want to do. Whenever I talk about what does
16:23
Ken Pom have for this game, you got to do a little bit of little
16:26
math in your head. So all you got to do is click
16:28
fan match at the very top of the page.
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Then it's going to give you all the games tonight and the
16:33
predictions from the Ken Pom stats.
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So go to the predictions. Here I go to the Lemoyne CS
16:40
Northridge game. What do I find under prediction?
16:43
I find a prediction that CS Northridge or CSUN is projected
16:47
to win 76 to 75 S Ken Palm has CS Northridge winning the game.
16:53
Another thing I look at is the rankings.
16:56
Lemoyne Courtney, Ken Palm is ranked 315 in the country.
16:59
CS Northridge is ranked 253. So they're ranked much higher
17:03
and they're predicted to win. Then I look at rhythm, trying to
17:08
layer in a good rhythm system match.
17:10
I look at Rhythm and I find that Rhythm is predicting CS
17:13
Northridge also to win the game 77.5 to 74.7.
17:19
So basically a three-point win. So if you lay the 2 1/2 now
17:22
you're going to save the juice. But to me this is a money line
17:25
play CS N CS Northridge, just win the damn game.
17:29
Ken Palms got him winning by 1. The markets moving in their
17:32
favorite dog to favorite rhythms got him predicted to win on the
17:35
money line by about 3:00. I'm going to take CS Northridge
17:38
here on the money line to win the damn game.
17:41
Shop around. I got CS Northridge around -145
17:45
But again, this is how I apply a lot of these games like the Ohio
17:47
State and the Texas game from the other night.
17:51
That's a different style of handicap.
17:53
That's just our wheelhouse, heavily back game.
17:55
Let's be contrarian. Let's go with the line move.
17:58
When you're with these tiny little games, I learn more on
18:01
the line move as well as the Ken Palm and of course the the
18:04
rhythm prediction. So you got to approach them a
18:06
little bit differently. The other thing about these
18:08
games, like CS Northridge currently at DraftKings, I think
18:12
they're getting like 80% of bets that would worry me in a heavily
18:15
bet game and a tiny little game like this with no public action
18:18
80% bets does not scare me. It tells me that it's probably
18:21
mostly wise guys and that 80% versus mostly drunk guys at the
18:24
bar. So first one here, Cal State
18:27
Northridge on the money line, Win the damn game -145 Next one
18:32
for you, late night sweat, 11:00 PM Eastern Time Rider in San
18:36
Diego. Now this is a legit 3 digit
18:39
rotation number game. Not an added extra game last
18:41
game of the night, but we have seen a sharp line move in favor
18:45
of San Diego. This game opened at basically a
18:48
pick em. It was around a pick or San
18:50
Diego was very slightly favored here like -1 we've now seen San
18:54
Diego get bet up to -3 straight off the bat.
18:57
Good movement here towards San Diego.
18:59
Can anyone tell me their their mascot it's the toreros San
19:04
Diego. But anyway went from a pick or
19:06
-1 all the way up to -3 it's a low back game.
19:09
Why is line going to San Diego? Tells me smart money from wise
19:13
guys is hitting the toreros here.
19:15
We're getting 70% bets with over 80% money.
19:18
So low bet a little bit higher dollars.
19:20
This is a true home game. So always keep an eye out for
19:22
the games you're playing right now.
19:23
If there's a little abbreviated lowercase N in parentheses, that
19:27
means neutral court. This is a true home game.
19:29
And last year at home, San Diego went 12 and 6.
19:32
Ryder went 6:00 and 12:00. So I lean a lot on I think home
19:35
homecourt is is is real to me. It's very meaningful.
19:39
That's not as meaningful as we've seen in recent years in
19:42
the NFL. It's actually less than we were
19:44
used to it. But when it comes to these young
19:46
kids at home, can be a boost. Going on the road can be a
19:49
detriment. So we have better home team
19:52
versus Rd. Rider last year.
19:53
Here's where it gets interesting though.
19:55
If you look at Ken Pom, dial up the Ken Pom prediction, he has
19:59
San Diego winning by two points. He's got him winning 75 to 73.
20:04
The other angle here is when I fire up rhythm.
20:07
I have a rhythm model here. Where San Diego should be
20:10
favored by 4.4 points and basically you have a predicted
20:14
final score of 75.9 to 71.5. So it's a true home game.
20:19
It's a low back game, late night sweat.
20:21
All movement has been towards San Diego.
20:23
We have a rhythm edge. We have Ken Palm saying they're
20:25
going to win the game. This is another money line play
20:27
for me. So I'm going to go on the money
20:29
line here. Guys, shop around.
20:31
You can get San Diego around -140 so let's go Torreros.
20:35
So Cal State Northridge and San Diego both on the money line
20:38
tonight. Now to finish up the pod, let's
20:40
go to the NBA because there's one game in particular tonight
20:43
that caught my eye. It's a big slate, 12 games
20:45
overall. But let's stay up late.
20:48
We got some late night sweats on the West Coast.
20:50
I'm going to look at a match up here tonight, 10:00 Eastern
20:53
Time, Philly and the LA Clippers.
20:56
Philly comes in one and five. I don't know what the heck's
20:58
going on with Joel Embiid. Is he going to play?
21:01
Is he not? What's up with the suspension?
21:03
Who knows? Clippers 3 and 4, so both teams
21:06
under 500. Late night sweat.
21:09
First thing you notice is that it's a very short spread.
21:10
Clippers are only favored in this one by 1 1/2 points.
21:14
But I didn't notice. We have a system match on a buy
21:16
low over. If you guys remember a couple
21:18
nights ago, one of the winning bets we had in the NBA.
21:21
I'm just going back to our my notebook here, but it was that
21:24
Clippers San Antonio game. Do you remember that total was
21:26
high, as high as 2/19. Got all the way down to 214 1/2
21:30
and we said, hey, here's an opportunity to take this over.
21:34
Well, what's important to me is we have basically the same exact
21:37
thing for this game here tonight.
21:39
So going into it, we open with a Philly LA Clippers total of
21:43
around 217 1/2. And now we've seen this total
21:46
get down to 214 1/2. So what does that tell us?
21:49
It tells us that right at the outset, when the sign first
21:52
dropped, you did have quite a bit of under money come in,
21:55
dropping this total again, 217 1/2 down to 214 1/2.
21:58
But here's the thing, even though it's pretty clear a lot
22:00
of under money came in, if you're playing under 214 1/2,
22:03
now you're getting the worst of the number.
22:05
Like let's say it lands two 15216.
22:08
That means the early betters who got under 217 or better, they
22:11
win their bet. If we're late to the party,
22:13
early bird does not get the worm, we lose our bet.
22:16
So again, I think it's always important when you're betting
22:18
sports, you always got to remember it's not just enough to
22:20
be on the right side, you got to get the right number.
22:23
So the fact that we're all the way down to 214 1/2, this
22:26
creates an opportunity to do exactly what we did the other
22:28
night and buy low and go over. So I'm going to go over 214 1/2,
22:31
76ers and Clippers. Couple things to like about
22:34
this. Our system matches when we look
22:37
at these low total overs. So I'm looking at totals that
22:39
are 217 or less. They're six and O to the over
22:43
this year. Over the last two seasons,
22:45
they're 87 and 61 to the over 59%.
22:49
Couple other angles here. If you look at non conference
22:52
overs, so lack of familiarity kind of benefiting the offense.
22:55
Defense doesn't know how to match up.
22:57
But non conference overs this year 18 and 1260%.
23:01
Conference overs are 40 and 3752%.
23:04
What's the game tonight? Non conference, Philly in the
23:07
east, Clippers out West. You also have two rested teams.
23:11
They've been off since Monday. You have a very short spread.
23:14
Again, this is only Clippers favored by 1 1/2.
23:17
So tight game, back and forth, competitive, who knows, maybe we
23:20
get overtime. The other angle here is the
23:22
Sixers are a very good over team this year.
23:25
They're not great defensively, 23rd defensive efficiency, but
23:28
they're five and one to the over this year.
23:30
That's the third best over team in the NBA.
23:33
And oh, by the way, rhythm. Rhythm is predicting a 215.1
23:38
final score or final total, I should say.
23:41
So over 214 1/2. Can we buy low and go over?
23:45
I think we can. Let's see if we can get some
23:46
luck, get some points. Who knows if we'll need it late.
23:50
I always like when I'm playing it over.
23:51
If you can get me close to 60 points in the first quarter,
23:53
that's when you know you're kind of on pace here.
23:56
But again, worked on Monday. It's been a great system match
23:58
so far this year. Low total overs.
24:01
I'm going to do a low total over here tonight.
24:03
Buy logo 76ers Clippers over 214 1/2.
24:08
So that about does it for episode 157 of the All Systems
24:11
Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:14
This is a part of the pod where we wrap things up and I start by
24:16
first saying thank you. Thank you for tuning in each day
24:19
to the pod to breakdown sharp contrarian plays with me.
24:23
Secondly, now I'm going to ask you a favor.
24:25
I'm going to butter you up so you can do something for me.
24:27
It's very easy and it's not going to be very painful.
24:30
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
24:33
If you enjoy the breakdowns, if it's become maybe you know, a
24:36
part of your daily capping routine, you cap your games, you
24:38
turn on the pod, see where we overlap.
24:41
Maybe we're on opposite side, same side, maybe there's a game
24:44
I bring up that you weren't thinking about or you're leaning
24:46
on. But if you enjoy the pod and you
24:48
want to help me grow the pod, please, a five star review on
24:51
Spotify or iTunes would go a long way.
24:53
Also, if there's an option to review the pod, if you want to
24:56
leave a kind note or you want to click the follow button or
24:59
recommend it to a friend, that would also be fantastic.
25:02
Secondly, if you enjoy this pod, and maybe you're introduced now
25:06
to the data-driven sports betting approach, grinding
25:09
grinders with blinders, as an old buddy of mine, Dan or B once
25:12
said, But maybe you never knew the style of betting existed.
25:16
Maybe you love betting on sports, but you lost a lot.
25:18
And you said, man, I just I can't get an edge now.
25:20
You found a little bit of an edge here by monitoring the
25:22
market by betting games based on data and your head and not your
25:26
heart, looking at line movement system matches, bet splits, flat
25:29
bedding, not parlaying. If this pod has introduced the
25:32
style of data-driven bedding to you and you want to learn more
25:35
about data-driven bedding or maybe help someone else learn
25:38
about data-driven bedding, guess what?
25:40
I wrote a book. Go buy my book.
25:42
It's less than 20 bucks. It's got a lot of great
25:44
information in it. It's got everything I've learned
25:46
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
25:48
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
25:50
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
25:53
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
25:56
It's all included in the Everything Guide to sports
25:59
Betting. So pick one up when I see at the
26:01
sports book, I'll sign it for you.
26:02
I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale next.
26:06
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
26:09
Rhythm? My two favorite sports betting
26:11
apps, because they're all about data and data again, to me is
26:15
important. The the data's out there.
26:17
We just got to learn how to interpret it.
26:19
And if we can continue with that data-driven approach, I'm I'm
26:22
assured that we're going to be successful better long term.
26:26
But anyway, if you have not yet done it, go give rhythm and
26:30
juice reel a shot. Rhythm is fantastic for their AI
26:32
backed models and predictions for both game bets and player
26:36
props. Right now college basketball is
26:38
back. So I'll give you an example that
26:40
CS Northridge in in San Diego game, you know, boom, within 2
26:44
seconds you got a model telling you what the spread should be
26:47
based on the AI analytics. What other app can do that for
26:50
you? I'd I'd venture to say probably
26:51
not many. So it gives you good information
26:54
on games that you probably have no clue about.
26:56
Secondly, when it comes to juice Reel, great, great benefits to
26:59
juice reel. If you can just tell the best
27:00
bet picks from Robo Jackson. If you're interested, you can
27:03
get arbitrage opportunities to grind out a profit each day.
27:06
You get the sharp mush indicators games where basically
27:09
you have a heavy preponderance of smart money on one side but
27:12
the bad money or the square money, whatever you want to call
27:15
it, the losing money's on the other side.
27:17
As well as bets and dollar breakdowns for all the different
27:20
games and bet types. Also make sure you sync up your
27:23
sports books. That way you can get a running
27:25
record and report card of your action.
27:26
Learn about yourself as a better, isolate your strengths
27:28
and weaknesses. But both are great apps.
27:31
They help me win. I'm confident they'll help you
27:33
win. So please go give them a shot.
27:35
Sign up for a 7 day free trial. You can do it by clicking those
27:38
custom links that are located in the bio description of the
27:40
podcast. Once you see the breakdown and
27:44
kind of the description of today's pod, each pod will say
27:46
something like Josh dishes out a 5 pack of sweats, yadda yadda
27:49
yadda. Go below that, Scroll down,
27:52
you'll see those links for rhythm and juice.
27:53
Real click those. It's important to click those so
27:56
that they know I refer to you and then you will be off and
27:58
running. So again, take advantage of
28:00
both, especially with college hoops back really, really good
28:03
time to get those added to your sports betting portfolio,
28:08
whatever you want to call it, your your toolkit.
28:11
So anyway, guys, that about does it for another pod here, another
28:13
episode of the all systems go pod in the books.
28:16
This is where I leave you with two things for two couple two
28:19
thoughts here. One, whether I see you at the
28:21
Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
28:24
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
28:26
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
28:29
Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
28:32
Massachusetts route in the desert where the true grinders
28:34
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners with
28:37
lowest use possible is not the South Point in Vegas, of course,
28:41
or jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
28:43
Cash in a big ticket when you are at Circa, wherever it may
28:47
be, you're going to walk up to me disappointing night in
28:50
hockey. You can show me a Flames ticket,
28:52
mostly. How about if you're in Missouri,
28:54
show me. I don't know, not a ticket yet,
28:56
but Congrats to those Missourians out there who have
29:00
now legalized betting and now join the party.
29:02
It's always great to see another another state go online.
29:05
Just tells you that our industry is growing and getting bigger
29:08
and better, which is awesome. And you know what you should be
29:10
able to bet on sports if you want to.
29:12
That's my opinion. But anyway guys, first one's on
29:14
me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
29:16
book Sweatshark Contrarian place all night long.
29:19
So wish you the bus. Best of luck everyone.
29:21
Remember the model never changes.
29:22
We had a great Monday, 4:00 and 1:00, disappointing night last
29:26
night, one in three, that's going to happen.
29:27
There's a lot of ups and downs in sports betting.
29:29
But here's the thing. If we continue to stay true to
29:31
the model in the blueprint against the public, with the
29:34
pros, with the House, of course, you know, getting some closing
29:39
line value as well as not parlaying.
29:41
You know, if we can do that, if we can place ourselves
29:43
simultaneously against the public and with the house and
29:47
with the pros, if we can do that, we're going to be
29:49
successful long term, I assure you.
29:51
So best of luck, everyone. Have a great Wednesday night.
29:53
Again, Congrats to Missouri for going legal.
29:57
Sounds like they have until December 1st, 2025, about a year
30:00
to get fully implemented here. So I would assume you go online
30:03
first. Then you'll have some casinos,
30:05
which I don't know if the Ozarks are out there, but maybe maybe
30:09
you'll run into to Marty Bird in the in the Ozarks is now you can
30:13
legally, legally, but stay away from the cartel.
30:15
Be careful about them. But anyway, guys, have a great
30:18
Wednesday again, 5 pack tonight. Can we find a way to get three
30:21
or more? That's the goal.
30:22
But I wish you the best of luck. And as always, stay sharp, stay
30:25
contrary and bet against the public.
30:26
Place yourself on the side of the house.
30:28
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:30
If we can do that, we'll be all right long term.
30:33
So have a good night. Good night everybody.
30:34
We'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 158, a big Thirsty
30:38
Thursday edition of the All Systems Go sports betting
30:41
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
30:45
great night.