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What happens next in Iran after Khameneis death? · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Inside Iran mixed emotions as this milestone in the nation's
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  Speaker 1: history continues to unfold.
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  Speaker 2: In this history that.
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  Speaker 1: We are all now watching, Some tell CNN they're joyful
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  Speaker 1: that Ayatalla how Many is dead. Others say they can't
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  Speaker 1: believe it. Others, of course, are are worried and angry
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  Speaker 1: about the future and the threat of instability. Most in
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  Speaker 1: Malaney joins us now. He's a political professor at the
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  Speaker 1: University of South Florida and has written a book called
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  Speaker 1: Iran's Rise and Rivalry with the United States in the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East. And really appreciate your taking the time, I guess, professor,
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  Speaker 1: you know, you know, Freed was just talking about that
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  Speaker 1: there's ninety two million people in Iran, right, so that
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  Speaker 1: there is always someone who could take over a spot
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  Speaker 1: that has been vacated, right. But another way of looking
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  Speaker 1: at that is just the incredible depth and size and
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  Speaker 1: power of the nation, and that for ninety two million people,
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  Speaker 1: life has forever changed. It's been since nineteen eighty one
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  Speaker 1: that the Idayah Tolla Hominy has been president or supreme
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  Speaker 1: leader of Iran. You left Tehran for the United States
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  Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties as a teenager. Then came the
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  Speaker 1: revolution in nineteen seventy nine and you couldn't go back.
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  Speaker 1: So now here you are, at this point in your
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  Speaker 1: life watching this happen. How does it feel.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you for having me on your show. It feels
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  Speaker 3: very strange, because I to be honest with you, I
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  Speaker 3: am very worried about the future of the country because
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  Speaker 3: we are going through perhaps the most balla time and
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  Speaker 3: the most dangerous period since the Islamic Revolution of nineteen
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  Speaker 3: seventy nine. We have this war with the United States,
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  Speaker 3: the greatest military power in the world, with Israel, the
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  Speaker 3: greatest military power in the Middle East. And then at
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  Speaker 3: the same time, the leader of Iran, who had ruled
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  Speaker 3: Iran for thirty seven long years, has been killed. And
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  Speaker 3: therefore now there is not only we have a crisis
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  Speaker 3: in terms of Iran's military confrontation with two great powers,
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  Speaker 3: there is also internal turmoil as the country has to
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  Speaker 3: decide who is going to replace how many Moreover, there
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  Speaker 3: are a number of people who operate outside the governing
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  Speaker 3: elite in Iran, some of them inside the country and
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  Speaker 3: some outside of the country, who now has see the
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  Speaker 3: opportunity to try to shape the future of the Islamic Republic.
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  Speaker 3: Adding to all of this is that we have the
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  Speaker 3: US who seems to have a short term plan to
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  Speaker 3: force Iran to come to the negotiating table. We have
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  Speaker 3: Israel that has a longer plan, because the Israeli plan
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  Speaker 3: seems to be to really degrade Iranian military capabilities. And
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  Speaker 3: then we have the policy or the strategy of Iran,
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  Speaker 3: which wants to make this war as long as possible,
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  Speaker 3: to make it as costly in the United States as possible.
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  Speaker 1: So President Trump, I mean, and I don't know whether
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  Speaker 1: you think it's an oversimplification, but there has, you know,
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  Speaker 1: sort of been initially the feeling that was put out
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  Speaker 1: there was the US and Israel will take out the
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  Speaker 1: Supreme leader and then leave the rest of the Iranian people.
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  Speaker 1: That this sort of the runway has been cleared for
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  Speaker 1: the Iranian people to rise up and take over and
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  Speaker 1: ride into the sunset. And I'm obviously oversimplifying, but that's
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  Speaker 1: the feeling out there for some New York columnist Robin
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  Speaker 1: Wright was reacting to Trump's comments on CNN last night,
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  Speaker 1: you know, when he talked about the Iranian people now
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  Speaker 1: taking over for themselves. Here's some of what she said.
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  Speaker 4: The Iranians have many young Nelson Mandelas, but they don't
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  Speaker 4: have the kind of African National Congress you had in
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  Speaker 4: South Africa that had years to form on infrastructure, to
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  Speaker 4: define what the alternative to apartheid might look like and
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  Speaker 4: who would be its leadership. And Iran doesn't have any
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  Speaker 4: of that.
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  Speaker 1: So I remember being in Iran for the election of
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  Speaker 1: President Rukhani and seeing, you know, the way they would
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  Speaker 1: open up moss for voting, right that there was a
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  Speaker 1: voting process, but it was completely controlled, right, completely controlled
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  Speaker 1: by the regime. Do opposition leaders in Iran right now
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  Speaker 1: have any sort of an infrastructure or a path to power.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the literature, the academic literature is very clear that
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  Speaker 3: air power alone is not going to overthrow a well
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  Speaker 3: fortified revolutionary regime like the Islamic Republic. You need to
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  Speaker 3: have people inside the country who have weapons, who have
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  Speaker 3: financial support, and above all, who are organized. At this time,
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  Speaker 3: to be honest with you, I do not see anyone
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  Speaker 3: with the capability to immediately take over the government. However,
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  Speaker 3: as I said, there are contenders outside of Iran and
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  Speaker 3: inside Iran who believe they can actually change the regime.
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  Speaker 3: At this time, it seems to me the odds are
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  Speaker 3: against those who want to immediately overthrow the Islamic Republic because,
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  Speaker 3: as I have said numerously and I have written about it,
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  Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic has proven in the past forty eight
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  Speaker 3: years that it is not a government that is good
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  Speaker 3: and economic prosperity in bringing economic prosperity in governing, but
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  Speaker 3: it is an extremely effective government for suppressing people and
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  Speaker 3: for survival. And the idea in Tehran, the idea that
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  Speaker 3: is unifying everybody who has, one way or another work
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  Speaker 3: with the Islamic Republic is that they have entered an
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  Speaker 3: existential moment, precise because the President of the United States
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  Speaker 3: has called for the overthrow of the Islamiki republics. So
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be tough.
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  Speaker 5: I want to bring in President Trump's former national security
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  Speaker 5: advisor and former UN ambassador John Bolton Ambassador Bolton. The
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  Speaker 5: day started with that exchange of threats, but by the
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  Speaker 5: late morning, as President Trump has been calling around to
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  Speaker 5: media outlets, he told The Atlantic that the new leaders
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  Speaker 5: in Iran quote want to talk. And on top of that,
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  Speaker 5: Ahman's Foreign Ministry also says that Iran is open to
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  Speaker 5: any serious efforts at de escalation. So should the US
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  Speaker 5: work with the remnants of the existing Iranian regime similar
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  Speaker 5: to what they have done so far in Venezuela.
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  Speaker 2: Of course not.
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  Speaker 6: It's a mistake in Venezuela. It would be a mistake
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  Speaker 6: in Iran. I have no doubt that whatever is left
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  Speaker 6: of Iran's top leadership is perfectly happy to talk to
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  Speaker 6: the United States to play for time stop us in
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  Speaker 6: the Israelis from pounding them. Their word is no good,
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  Speaker 6: The threat that they pose to us remains unresolved.
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  Speaker 2: Their behavior is not going to change.
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  Speaker 6: That's why the President has selected the correct objective here,
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  Speaker 6: which is regime change.
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  Speaker 2: We're less than two days into it.
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  Speaker 6: We need to have patients and not listen to those
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  Speaker 6: that will do anything, say anything to get us to stop.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, but I think people are also eager to get
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  Speaker 5: a sense of what is next. I mean, as you know,
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  Speaker 5: the late Shaw's son, Rezapa Lavi, has been suggesting that
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  Speaker 5: he is the person who could lead Iran. Do you
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  Speaker 5: think that he actually has the support, the power, the
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  Speaker 5: infrastructure to do that.
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  Speaker 6: Well, we don't know whether he does or anybody else does.
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  Speaker 6: And I think it's a mistake to focus on who
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  Speaker 6: the next leader of a non Iotola led Iran will be.
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  Speaker 6: Once we have a non Iotola led Iran, then we
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  Speaker 6: can worry about it. As Jim Baker always used to
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  Speaker 6: say to me, keep your eyes on the prize, and
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  Speaker 6: the prize is bringing down this regime. I think the
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  Speaker 6: most likely outcome, certainly probably the best outcome, would be
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  Speaker 6: a regime led by the regular Iranian military, not the
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  Speaker 6: Revolutionary Guard, but the conventional military that understands that its
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  Speaker 6: role is limited and that really they need to set
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  Speaker 6: up a process for Iranians in country and for people
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  Speaker 6: from the who have been exiled to go back and participate.
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  Speaker 6: But to try and do it in advance, I think
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  Speaker 6: is putting a cart before the horse.
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  Speaker 5: Let me play what President Trump had to say to
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  Speaker 5: the people of Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Listen, when we are finished, take over your government.
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  Speaker 6: It will be yours to take. This will be probably
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  Speaker 6: your only chance for generations.
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  Speaker 5: I'm curious us what your reaction to that is, and
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  Speaker 5: also how would that be done? How can the regular
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  Speaker 5: Iranian people take over their government at this stage.
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  Speaker 6: Well, it's remarks like that and one other thing he
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  Speaker 6: said in that speech that leaves me worried that we
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  Speaker 6: have not coordinated effectively with the opposition inside Iran. It
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  Speaker 6: doesn't have enormous structure or leadership, but it's the dissatisfaction with.
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  Speaker 2: The regime has never been more widespread.
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  Speaker 6: The regime is weaker now than it has been at
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  Speaker 6: any point since it was founded in nineteen seventy nine.
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  Speaker 6: And it won't be I think a transition from an
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  Speaker 6: Iotola led regime or really a revolutionary Guard led regime.
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  Speaker 6: I think it's the Guard that's really in control in Iran.
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  Speaker 6: To the people, there'll be intermediate steps. The Iotolas have
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  Speaker 6: been in power for forty seven years. They're not about
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  Speaker 6: to go quickly, and I think we need some persistence
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  Speaker 6: and some patience here. I hope the administration is ready
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  Speaker 6: for that. I hope they make the case better than
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  Speaker 6: they have so far to the American people that this
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  Speaker 6: could take time. It's not time involving boots on the ground.
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  Speaker 6: But if we are successful, it appears that we are
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  Speaker 6: well on the way to doing of having complete air
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  Speaker 6: dominance over run, meaning we can take our time that
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  Speaker 6: we shouldn't be pressed by eight days, nine days.
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  Speaker 2: Is it going to be over in ten days?
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  Speaker 6: It'll be over when it's over if that's our real objective.
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  Speaker 2: If regime changes our objective, we should have known going in.
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  Speaker 6: We cannot predict at the outset how long it will take,
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  Speaker 6: all
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  Speaker 5: Right, Ambassador John Bolton, thank you very much for joining us.