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NFC Win Total Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: It's mid July, folks, mid July training camps starting in
0:19
Speaker 1: a matter of weeks. NFL season starting soon after that.
0:25
Speaker 1: We're probably like we honestly, we're practically sixty days less
0:31
Speaker 1: than sixty days from the start of NFL season. There
0:35
Speaker 1: are so many wind totals to bet in the world.
0:39
Speaker 1: Last week we went through with Raheem Palmer the a
0:43
Speaker 1: f C. This week along with Raheem Palmer again, we
0:48
Speaker 1: are going to go through the NFC. And before we
0:51
Speaker 1: do that, let me bring on my bay f f
0:56
Speaker 1: my companion, my capadre, a man who is so professional
1:07
Speaker 1: that when I texted him in the middle of the
1:11
Speaker 1: England Italy euro Cup Final, and it was about fifty
1:18
Speaker 1: three minutes into the match, I said to him, Hey,
1:23
Speaker 1: can you jump on a forty five minute call starting
1:26
Speaker 1: right now. There's nothing really happening, is there. Uh. When
1:30
Speaker 1: he finally did check his phone, he said, I'm available
1:33
Speaker 1: now if you still need me, not recognizing that I
1:36
Speaker 1: was just fucking with him. Mr Simon Hunter, I I
1:43
Speaker 1: I always tell you, Jad, there's a love hate relationship
1:45
Speaker 1: being a professional better where I think I finally checked
1:48
Speaker 1: my phone because I don't look at it when there's
1:49
Speaker 1: a sporting matt going on, and so I checked it
1:51
Speaker 1: after the match was over, and yeah, I was like, so,
1:55
Speaker 1: I don't even know. I feel like I was just
1:57
Speaker 1: like not drunk, but like my head was in like
1:59
Speaker 1: a million places. I didn't comprehend what you were saying.
2:02
Speaker 1: So I was like, is this guy really asked me
2:04
Speaker 1: to call? Do a call in real quick? But M yeah,
2:08
Speaker 1: I hate that. I knew that was gonna happen. I
2:10
Speaker 1: said the last week's show, everyone knew England was gonna
2:13
Speaker 1: lose in Pekst, Italy. That was just that's just how
2:15
Speaker 1: it goes as an England fan. UM, But I don't know.
2:20
Speaker 1: It's it's one of those where people in America they
2:25
Speaker 1: they kind of heard about the British fan base and
2:27
Speaker 1: about the stuff they're saying how awful they are. And
2:30
Speaker 1: I'm definitely a glass half full kind of guy where
2:32
Speaker 1: it's like, did we beat Germany to nothing? Like we
2:35
Speaker 1: made the finals? Like I was pretty pretty happy with
2:38
Speaker 1: um the run. But it's it's just a shame that
2:41
Speaker 1: the way it's ended, Like we texted, I I never
2:44
Speaker 1: will see the rest of my life. Three guys miss
2:46
Speaker 1: penalty shots in a row. It's just not something these
2:50
Speaker 1: these are the best professional athletes in the world. You
2:53
Speaker 1: mean you could go out there chat, I doubt mean
2:54
Speaker 1: you would miss three in a row. So it was
2:56
Speaker 1: just very, very bizarre, and uh, I probably won't get
3:01
Speaker 1: over it for another about thirty fifty years. It's that painful.
3:06
Speaker 1: It kind of is where it's like you're just you're
3:09
Speaker 1: you're so close. Um. I saw that it was the
3:13
Speaker 1: highest rated television event in England since Princess Diana's funeral,
3:18
Speaker 1: so like the whole country was all in so I
3:21
Speaker 1: just it's just a heartbreak for the country. And like
3:23
Speaker 1: in America, we've kind of been out and about, in
3:25
Speaker 1: England there's still locked down. So those images you see
3:28
Speaker 1: on TV, those are people that are like basically they
3:32
Speaker 1: had to get a whole process just to be on
3:33
Speaker 1: public and be around other people, out of like a
3:35
Speaker 1: place to celebrate. So it's just heartbreaking knowing like we're
3:39
Speaker 1: not that we're never gonna get back, but it's not
3:41
Speaker 1: gonna get better than that, you know what I mean.
3:42
Speaker 1: You play they're playing at home for all, for everything,
3:46
Speaker 1: and you just lose it. Oh God, yeah, it's it's
3:49
Speaker 1: It's just gonna stay with me for a long time,
3:51
Speaker 1: I would think watching I watched it obviously on Sunday,
3:55
Speaker 1: and when it got down to the penalty kicks and
4:02
Speaker 1: Italy missed one of the kicks and Pickford made that
4:05
Speaker 1: great stop. Uh, I thought to myself, this has catastrophe
4:13
Speaker 1: written all over it. Like there it's going to this
4:18
Speaker 1: is everybody should stop time right now, enjoy this moment
4:23
Speaker 1: if you're an English football fan, because it can only
4:26
Speaker 1: get worse from this moment. And if you're not familiar
4:29
Speaker 1: with the history of English football and you're not familiar
4:33
Speaker 1: with the heartache that surrounds it and the emotional investment
4:38
Speaker 1: that people in England or citizens of England who live
4:41
Speaker 1: abroad the English diaspora have about their football team. Um,
4:47
Speaker 1: you could not let yourself believe that anything good was
4:51
Speaker 1: going to happen, even when they were up in peaks.
4:55
Speaker 1: There's no way that's it was the one off. As
4:57
Speaker 1: soon as it was one nothing two minutes and I said,
4:59
Speaker 1: this is peak. Now, We'll never be happier than we
5:01
Speaker 1: are right now. And uh, and yet it got Yet
5:05
Speaker 1: it peaked, it peaked even higher. When you were up
5:08
Speaker 1: in penalty kicks. But now really, because anyone that watches
5:11
Speaker 1: peks knows it's it's irrelevant until they all shoot. It
5:15
Speaker 1: doesn't matter if you're up one, you're up to like
5:18
Speaker 1: weird stuff is gonna happen because their pressure just shifts.
5:20
Speaker 1: So like basically in my mind, I'm just having these
5:22
Speaker 1: flashes popping my head of David Beckham kicking the ball
5:25
Speaker 1: fifty yards over the net, which is something that happened
5:27
Speaker 1: in the nineties that to this day this man has
5:30
Speaker 1: done everything. There's not a pub you can walk into
5:32
Speaker 1: in England that someone doesn't yellow joking about mixing that
5:35
Speaker 1: that penalty kicks. So that's why my heart breaks for
5:38
Speaker 1: these guys like Marcus. A couple of these guys are
5:40
Speaker 1: probably gonna have to leave England. It's one of those
5:42
Speaker 1: where like Chris Sian Ronaldo, the greatest player ever, he
5:46
Speaker 1: basically had a foul committed against him when he played
5:49
Speaker 1: England in the World Cup and because of it he
5:50
Speaker 1: left England and he went to Spain. So it's like
5:54
Speaker 1: it's sad, but these hooligans are just mental over there.
5:56
Speaker 1: So like a lot of lives are gonna be changed
5:59
Speaker 1: just from this, these little plays that happened in this game.
6:01
Speaker 1: I was truly heartbroken for soccer. The kid who missed
6:07
Speaker 1: the last kick, and and the youngest player on the team. Um,
6:11
Speaker 1: he had been amazing during the game and playing his
6:14
Speaker 1: heart out and he was probably the most aggressive player
6:17
Speaker 1: for England through the second half of the match, and
6:22
Speaker 1: I loved watching him play and the way he was
6:25
Speaker 1: attacking the goal and trying to sort of push the
6:27
Speaker 1: ball forward for the rest of his team, like I felt,
6:32
Speaker 1: so I was sick to my stomach that he was
6:35
Speaker 1: the guy taking the last shot, and then more stick
6:37
Speaker 1: to my stomach when he missed, and then devastated for
6:40
Speaker 1: him and seeing his reaction. And then of course you
6:43
Speaker 1: know in the days, since you knew because it was
6:47
Speaker 1: three black players that missed the shot, you knew there
6:52
Speaker 1: was gonna be just incredibly a boring behavior on the
6:56
Speaker 1: part of fans who were going to be saying really
6:59
Speaker 1: ugly thing, and especially for soccer. Like the compounding nature
7:05
Speaker 1: of all of it, I was just heartbroken for that kid.
7:08
Speaker 1: And it's also there's been you've been seeing the best
7:10
Speaker 1: that people come out like they pretty much have ruined
7:13
Speaker 1: a bunch of like rules that artwork that people have
7:15
Speaker 1: done for these players around England, around London, and people
7:18
Speaker 1: have come and they've recovered it up with like love
7:21
Speaker 1: letters and things like that, which like, again it sounds corny,
7:24
Speaker 1: but I think it's one of those where it's just
7:26
Speaker 1: you know, love beats hate. So it's one of those
7:28
Speaker 1: where that's that's kind of what's going on in England
7:30
Speaker 1: right now. It's like, um, it's the same thing here
7:32
Speaker 1: in America. They're just a really big undertone of racism there,
7:36
Speaker 1: and especially Marcus one of the lead players for England,
7:38
Speaker 1: he has really been a big advocate against racism and
7:41
Speaker 1: spoken out about it. And again that's what Breake Smarting
7:45
Speaker 1: like my favorite clubs Man United, that's who he plays for.
7:47
Speaker 1: He's just getting buried right now, like he's the one
7:50
Speaker 1: that hit the post. If people don't know which player
7:52
Speaker 1: he is, he hit the post and he is just
7:56
Speaker 1: in a world of pain because he cares that much.
7:59
Speaker 1: So again, I mean, we'll we'll move on to American football.
8:01
Speaker 1: But yeah, right now in England it's it's dark days.
8:04
Speaker 1: Yet it is dark days. By the way, I didn't
8:06
Speaker 1: ask the most important question, good did you bet it? Yeah?
8:10
Speaker 1: And I didn't Hedge, I know, always talked people to
8:12
Speaker 1: Hedge that was like a fun like I'm not I'm
8:15
Speaker 1: not gonna retire off my winnings and from that, so
8:18
Speaker 1: I basically had better grant to win like thirty two
8:21
Speaker 1: thousand because I didn't bet it originally because I honestly
8:23
Speaker 1: I didn't think England was gonna have a chance going
8:25
Speaker 1: into it because we never do. I had a chance
8:27
Speaker 1: to hedge on Italy their prior matchup they played against Spain,
8:32
Speaker 1: and I didn't do it. I really did think England
8:34
Speaker 1: was actually gonna win. Again, I'm a sucker. So yeah,
8:37
Speaker 1: I lost probably a total of like two because I
8:41
Speaker 1: was bet on England every now and then to win
8:43
Speaker 1: and they kept winning obviously to make it to the finals.
8:45
Speaker 1: So yeah, not not not a not a winning weekend
8:48
Speaker 1: for your But I mean did win on the fight?
8:50
Speaker 1: That was a good fight. I don't know if you
8:51
Speaker 1: bet on that? Did you bet on Connor? I didn't
8:54
Speaker 1: bet on Connor. We can bring in Raheem, raheem. Did
8:57
Speaker 1: you bet on Connor? Did you bet on England? And
9:00
Speaker 1: the NBA? He just overwhelmed me, Like so I just
9:03
Speaker 1: I've really just it's the one thing I just haven't
9:05
Speaker 1: paid attention to. And I'm one those people I can
9:07
Speaker 1: lock in and everybody can just be hype over one
9:11
Speaker 1: thing and I'll just have tunnel vision. So I didn't
9:14
Speaker 1: even see it. Um. I regret not betting on against
9:18
Speaker 1: Connor because you know, I'm a boxing guy. I'm not
9:20
Speaker 1: really I'm not really an m M M A guy. But
9:24
Speaker 1: I compare him to you know a guy named Adrian
9:27
Speaker 1: Browner in boxing who's basically just loud and boisterous. He's
9:31
Speaker 1: just a name now, and that's what Connor is. And
9:35
Speaker 1: he sells tickets and you know he's gonna get a
9:37
Speaker 1: lot of action on him, and that's gonna create an
9:39
Speaker 1: inefficiency in the market. And had I've been paying attention,
9:42
Speaker 1: I definitely would have faded. Well, listen, I'm not an
9:46
Speaker 1: m M A guy either. Didn't stop me from writing
9:49
Speaker 1: a book about Chuck Odell. You know, some of us,
9:54
Speaker 1: some of us go all in even when we don't
9:56
Speaker 1: know anything. We call that dad knowledge. That's what we do.
10:00
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean it's the way to do it right.
10:02
Speaker 1: Last thing before we get to you mentioned the NBA
10:04
Speaker 1: finals last time you were on. We were talking a
10:06
Speaker 1: little bit about NBA advancing the Suns and a dance
10:09
Speaker 1: of the Suns in the box. So the Suns are
10:11
Speaker 1: now up to one. They looked dominant in the first
10:13
Speaker 1: two games. But Janice, who a week ago, ten days
10:17
Speaker 1: ago looked like he might have to have his leg
10:20
Speaker 1: amputation below his knee, is now having one of the
10:24
Speaker 1: greatest NBA Finals in history. Is that enough? Have you
10:29
Speaker 1: seen enough from the box to say, yeah, there's value
10:33
Speaker 1: on taking the Bucks at this point in the series,
10:35
Speaker 1: or to you you know that we're recording this Tuesday
10:37
Speaker 1: Tomorrow night is game four? Is this a done deal? Um?
10:41
Speaker 1: I do think there's some value in the Bucks. I
10:43
Speaker 1: mean when you look at Game two, the Bucks kind
10:46
Speaker 1: of did everything right. I mean, I know they got
10:48
Speaker 1: they got beat by ten points, but you know, they
10:50
Speaker 1: figured things out defensively. It's just they had problems with
10:55
Speaker 1: shot variants. And you know, Matt talks about it all
10:57
Speaker 1: all the time. That's what's my colleague, Matt Moore, one
11:00
Speaker 1: of the best NBA writers all the time. It's just
11:03
Speaker 1: the Bucks, for whatever reason, the last three seasons in
11:06
Speaker 1: the playoffs, they can't hit open shots. And you know
11:10
Speaker 1: they've been lucky enough to hit open shots at home
11:13
Speaker 1: during this series, and the way Janice is playing, it's
11:17
Speaker 1: just he he looks like he could win. He could
11:21
Speaker 1: win this series if he just gets any help. Like
11:23
Speaker 1: I mean, when you look at game two, Drew Holiday
11:26
Speaker 1: and Chris Middleton didn't show up at all. Drew Holiday
11:29
Speaker 1: finally showed up in game three and they blow them out.
11:31
Speaker 1: And I just think so much of this series is
11:33
Speaker 1: gonna depend on whether DeAndre Ayton can stay out of
11:37
Speaker 1: foul trouble, because otherwise they have nobody to guard them.
11:40
Speaker 1: You know, Sorry, getting hurt really hurt them because now
11:42
Speaker 1: they have to play Kamensky. Kamensky is a liability. I
11:46
Speaker 1: think the Bucks are really live and as long as
11:48
Speaker 1: they get anything from Middleton and Drew Holiday. They've shown
11:53
Speaker 1: that they've shown throughout these playoffs is that they're resilient
11:57
Speaker 1: and they'll start to figure things out as it goes on.
11:59
Speaker 1: So they win game they went, They went um tomorrow night,
12:03
Speaker 1: and I think it goes seven. Yeah, look that you
12:06
Speaker 1: made a really good point. If they can get this
12:09
Speaker 1: series to last long enough, they are really good at
12:13
Speaker 1: figuring out how to unpack what's been presented to them.
12:17
Speaker 1: And eighton and how they can defend against him, and
12:20
Speaker 1: then what he can or cannot do against the honest
12:23
Speaker 1: Janice made of his shots within six ft in those
12:28
Speaker 1: first three games the Suns were shooting maybe, So what
12:33
Speaker 1: Janice has been able to do and the way he's
12:35
Speaker 1: been able to dominate, it's truly been something special, Simon,
12:40
Speaker 1: do you have anything to add there? Everyone knew. I
12:42
Speaker 1: feel like every pro I talked to you you was betting
12:44
Speaker 1: the Bucks, even on the spread. It was in like
12:45
Speaker 1: a money line bet. I mean, just like at the
12:47
Speaker 1: numbers they rested, the Sun's rested guys too. It just
12:50
Speaker 1: felt like part of the plan, where not that they're
12:52
Speaker 1: given the Bucks false hope, but they're just saying the
12:55
Speaker 1: next game of our threes are going down. The Bucks
12:57
Speaker 1: have no chance. I feel like that's the way the
12:59
Speaker 1: series is. The Sun if they hit shots, the Bucks,
13:01
Speaker 1: like you just said, they just don't hit those shots,
13:03
Speaker 1: so they can't keep up with it. But I hope
13:05
Speaker 1: you're right. I love when it's a good series, Like
13:07
Speaker 1: who doesn't want it to go seven? If it goes
13:09
Speaker 1: five one, you know they win in five. No one's
13:12
Speaker 1: gonna be shocked If the Suns go for one win
13:14
Speaker 1: this thing. Yeah all right, well let's get back last week. Uh,
13:19
Speaker 1: this trio did the a f C win totals who
13:25
Speaker 1: we liked, who we didn't, And I encourage everyone to
13:27
Speaker 1: go back and listen to that episode so you can
13:29
Speaker 1: get smart, start planning. There's still plenty of good numbers available. Uh,
13:34
Speaker 1: it's still in your favor. They're not jumping around um
13:38
Speaker 1: like you have to worry about There's there's good opportunities there.
13:41
Speaker 1: And I just want to say on that if people
13:43
Speaker 1: gave us a hard time, we forgot to mention Denver.
13:45
Speaker 1: I didn't know there were so much people cared so
13:47
Speaker 1: much about Denver, but I guess it's all Aaron Rodgers stuff.
13:50
Speaker 1: I took the under it's eight and a half. I
13:52
Speaker 1: feel like that number was bet up to nine too,
13:54
Speaker 1: just because of Aaron Rodgers. So if you're really looking
13:57
Speaker 1: at the bed Denver, I would not bet that over
13:59
Speaker 1: because it's just I just cannot see Aaron Rodgers in
14:02
Speaker 1: the next month switching teams. It's just too far in now.
14:05
Speaker 1: Like I just people are still asking about Denver. Don't
14:08
Speaker 1: do anything with Denver anymore. People. I kind of think
14:10
Speaker 1: it's dead at this point. The crazy thing is I
14:12
Speaker 1: actually took the over seven and a half wins way
14:15
Speaker 1: before the Aaron Rodgers news because to me, it's just like,
14:20
Speaker 1: you know, they were banged up last year. Von Miller
14:24
Speaker 1: was hurt, Courtland Sutton was hurt. Everybody was hurt on
14:27
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball, and they still had a
14:29
Speaker 1: defense that was thirteen from d V O W A
14:32
Speaker 1: and tenth and total success rate. And you know they
14:35
Speaker 1: got free agent sidence with Shelby Harris and Ronald Darby.
14:39
Speaker 1: This team they gave up four hundred and forty six
14:41
Speaker 1: points last year, So I think the defense is gonna
14:43
Speaker 1: be better. And then Drew Lock isn't gonna be the
14:46
Speaker 1: quarterback anymore. Like I think that's underrated, Like Drew Lock,
14:51
Speaker 1: like through the like he turned the ball over fifteen interceptions.
14:55
Speaker 1: How many fumbles did he have? I mean, the Broncos
14:58
Speaker 1: had a Laite worst turn turn over differential of minus sixteen,
15:02
Speaker 1: so we all know that tends to regress year to year.
15:06
Speaker 1: So I think when they got Teddy Bridgewater right now,
15:10
Speaker 1: he's a massive upgrade over Lock, So I like him
15:14
Speaker 1: to go over. I don't know if I would go
15:16
Speaker 1: over at eight and a half, But you know, a
15:19
Speaker 1: seven and a half of Aaron Rodgers doesn't get traded
15:21
Speaker 1: and they moved that number back. I'm looking over there
15:24
Speaker 1: for sure, but like you just said, there's there's so
15:26
Speaker 1: many movement parts there. It's one of those teams it's
15:28
Speaker 1: a little scary to even lock your money up on,
15:29
Speaker 1: like the team that has that, because I think they're
15:31
Speaker 1: gonna still try lock I'm right with you though, Like
15:33
Speaker 1: Teddy is so much better than him, but it just
15:35
Speaker 1: seems like one of those things just because they drafted
15:37
Speaker 1: him and the equity they already put out there, like
15:39
Speaker 1: he gets first DIBs no matter what, and I hate
15:41
Speaker 1: the Hey, by the way, we didn't forget to talk
15:45
Speaker 1: about the Broncos last week. We chose not to talk
15:49
Speaker 1: about the Broncos last week because we're not talking about
15:52
Speaker 1: every single total. We're talking about the ones that we
15:56
Speaker 1: find the most value in either the over or the under.
16:00
Speaker 1: We're not here to say, we're here to give you opinions.
16:03
Speaker 1: That's what we do, opinions. That's what drives the media beast.
16:09
Speaker 1: No one's listening to Colin Coward because he's milk toasts. Okay,
16:14
Speaker 1: are you sure yeah, positive. All right, here's I want
16:22
Speaker 1: to break it down like we did last week. There's
16:24
Speaker 1: a bunch of teams with wind totals. The Packers are
16:26
Speaker 1: crossed out on my list, so they must be off
16:29
Speaker 1: the board right now because of the Roger stuff. So
16:32
Speaker 1: there is that category of teams like we did last week,
16:34
Speaker 1: that are at ten wins or more in the NFC.
16:38
Speaker 1: Uh Simon, I will start with you Buccaneers at eleven
16:44
Speaker 1: and a half, Rams at ten and a half, Niners
16:49
Speaker 1: at ten and a half. UM, give me your take
16:54
Speaker 1: on those teams and their totals of double digit wins.
17:00
Speaker 1: The team I'm most comfortable taking under is definitely the
17:02
Speaker 1: forty niners. UM, just not only because of that division,
17:06
Speaker 1: but because of all the uncertainty that could be QB position,
17:09
Speaker 1: where I do think that they're gonna make a switch
17:11
Speaker 1: eventually to the rookie, and to back a rookie over
17:15
Speaker 1: ten a half wins, I I just cannot do that, um,
17:19
Speaker 1: especially a kid coming out of North Dakota State. It
17:21
Speaker 1: just feels like that's a lot to ask. I know,
17:23
Speaker 1: Shanahan's unbelievable and they were. Basically if you just look
17:27
Speaker 1: at a metric of the highest injured team. Last year
17:29
Speaker 1: they were number one, they had the most injuries by far,
17:32
Speaker 1: so a lot of professionals like them to bump like
17:35
Speaker 1: the bump up this year just on that simple fact.
17:38
Speaker 1: But when I look at that division, I just think
17:40
Speaker 1: to myself, I like the Rams better, I like the
17:43
Speaker 1: Seehawks better. And again, we can say what we want
17:46
Speaker 1: about Kingsbury, but I feel better about taking Arizona what
17:49
Speaker 1: they have around uh Kyler that I dode taking the
17:52
Speaker 1: forty Niners about what they have. So for me, I'm
17:54
Speaker 1: just I'm just not drinking the kool aid on the
17:57
Speaker 1: forty Niners show. I just think there's too much hype
17:59
Speaker 1: going into the season them. So that's an under I
18:00
Speaker 1: really liked this year ten and a half. That is interesting.
18:07
Speaker 1: Right before before I asked my followup question, Raheem, do
18:09
Speaker 1: you have a take on what Simon just said about
18:11
Speaker 1: the forty Niners. Mm hmmm, see I was. I mean,
18:16
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Rams personally going under because I
18:19
Speaker 1: just think that there's a lot of hype around the
18:21
Speaker 1: Rams and they've lost some defensive starters. I know they
18:23
Speaker 1: got Matthew Stafford. I just think that division is tough
18:27
Speaker 1: all the way around. So I don't know how you
18:29
Speaker 1: get eleven wins from multiple teams there. I mean, people,
18:33
Speaker 1: the Seahawks have not really been good, but they still
18:37
Speaker 1: have Russell Wilson Arizona. Like I see all of those
18:40
Speaker 1: teams beating up on each other. So I kind of
18:43
Speaker 1: agree with you. I just I think the four Niners
18:46
Speaker 1: are gonna struggle with that quarterback situation. So I do
18:49
Speaker 1: want to talk about the Rams, so, but I'm not
18:52
Speaker 1: pushing aside the Niners. I think Simon, it's interesting that
18:56
Speaker 1: you're saying the Niners under ten and a half, between
19:00
Speaker 1: the Bucks at eleven and a half, the Rams of
19:02
Speaker 1: ten and a half and the nine Ers a ten
19:03
Speaker 1: and a half, the one you like the most is
19:05
Speaker 1: under under his minus one fifty uh ten and a half.
19:10
Speaker 1: Totally makes sense to me why you would think that.
19:14
Speaker 1: And I completely disagree, um because, like you said, not
19:19
Speaker 1: a believer in Kingsbury Cliff Kingsbury at Arizona, no matter
19:24
Speaker 1: what the talent, because I don't think he can coach
19:27
Speaker 1: that talent to its potential. Uh. I am not skeptical
19:34
Speaker 1: about the Seahawks, but that to me feels like it
19:37
Speaker 1: could go either way. Uh, in terms of how they
19:41
Speaker 1: play this year, whether or not their defense can continue
19:44
Speaker 1: to improve. It got much better than the second half
19:46
Speaker 1: of the year. Is Russell Wilson going to be as
19:49
Speaker 1: inconsistent as he was last year? Pete Carroll as a
19:53
Speaker 1: coach running a team is a wild card. We've seen
19:56
Speaker 1: it in the play calling. We've seen it in how
19:58
Speaker 1: he likes to manage his team. And have they rebuilt
20:01
Speaker 1: the offensive line enough to make Russell Wilson comfortable? Look
20:05
Speaker 1: at pizza record, though, Chad's that you gotta look at
20:08
Speaker 1: pizza record. He always wins ten games, Bro, So you're
20:10
Speaker 1: falling into the same trap every year people fall intough.
20:12
Speaker 1: They go, yeah, what do you see the Seahawks have
20:15
Speaker 1: And it's just all of a sudden, they won ten
20:16
Speaker 1: or eleven games. We go, oh, ship, they have Russell Wilson.
20:19
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. Everything you said about the Stolks
20:21
Speaker 1: is true. He just wins. It doesn't make any sense.
20:24
Speaker 1: I don't get it either. But every year that's what
20:26
Speaker 1: really messes up this whole division. It's like, which team
20:29
Speaker 1: is gonna sunk it up? Because, like you just said,
20:32
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the Rams, that's the team like
20:34
Speaker 1: all the guys I told you in Vegas, every guy
20:36
Speaker 1: talked to, that's who they want to talk about. They
20:38
Speaker 1: just are so obsessed with the Rams and the potential
20:41
Speaker 1: of that team. I just always go back to and
20:43
Speaker 1: not to not to completely tout our friend Colin Cowherd
20:47
Speaker 1: in his podcast, obviously he's got to keep to leave
20:50
Speaker 1: in the Volume podcast network. And a key was on
20:57
Speaker 1: Colin's podcast when Matthew Stafford was trade it to the Rams,
21:01
Speaker 1: and Colin asked to keep for his honest opinion of
21:04
Speaker 1: what people around the league were saying. Because all the
21:07
Speaker 1: hype Matthew Stafford, Sean McVeigh match Made in Heaven, blah
21:11
Speaker 1: blah blah. To Leed's response was, and maybe I'm putting
21:16
Speaker 1: too much emphasis on this little bias. He was, like,
21:18
Speaker 1: everyone who on the league is saying Matthew Stafford, like
21:23
Speaker 1: an honest question, This is the guy everyone's pinning their
21:26
Speaker 1: hopes on. This is the guy that you believe is
21:29
Speaker 1: going to be the one who takes you to the
21:30
Speaker 1: next level. So I think about that, I think about
21:33
Speaker 1: all the investment in Matthew Stafford, and then I think
21:36
Speaker 1: I'd rather have Kyle Shanahan and his ability to gain
21:39
Speaker 1: plan with whoever is on the field. Then Matthew Stafford.
21:43
Speaker 1: To me, Matthew Stafford is like the modern day Jeff George. Yes,
21:49
Speaker 1: he has a rocket arm and he throws that side
21:53
Speaker 1: on past. He has more. It's like he has more
21:57
Speaker 1: talent than the wire he actually is. So I think
22:02
Speaker 1: people see his talent and his natural gifts and they say, oh, yeah,
22:07
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, he's great, but he's not that good. I
22:12
Speaker 1: am with you. I just don't. I don't want to
22:15
Speaker 1: be the one that like the Feno mar Court because
22:17
Speaker 1: again it's it's like you just said, it's Matthew Stafford.
22:19
Speaker 1: What has he ever done? Um? Yeah, he played in Detroit,
22:23
Speaker 1: So I get it right, and that's my old thing.
22:25
Speaker 1: It's like I'm I'm not in on it either. But
22:28
Speaker 1: it's just interesting me where it's not just one group
22:30
Speaker 1: of professionals I've talked to. It's multiple different guys who
22:34
Speaker 1: these guys win, they know their ship and they won't
22:37
Speaker 1: just they're not just bringing it up to me. It's
22:38
Speaker 1: like we we do small talk for two minutes and
22:41
Speaker 1: they go, so the Rams, how about the Rams? And
22:43
Speaker 1: it's like every guy like, why the hell do you
22:45
Speaker 1: guys fucking like the Rams and much so there's something
22:48
Speaker 1: there and I've I've gone a little bit more into
22:50
Speaker 1: the film, Like I I can't get over the fact
22:55
Speaker 1: that he's always got these little injuries Stafford, And that's
22:58
Speaker 1: my biggest hesitation. He Or goes like, what are they
23:01
Speaker 1: gonna do when he misses a couple of games in the
23:03
Speaker 1: the middle of season because we were talking about how
23:04
Speaker 1: hard a division this is and everything like that. But man,
23:08
Speaker 1: I know, like Raheem just said, they mess they're missing
23:10
Speaker 1: some pieces. Their defense is so good. I mean, their
23:14
Speaker 1: defense is so good, and if Stafford can figure it
23:17
Speaker 1: out with a running game and cam Akers, everything's there.
23:20
Speaker 1: Everything there is for a really dominant team. So that's
23:23
Speaker 1: one of those where I don't know if I'm doing
23:25
Speaker 1: their win totals, but I'm definitely gonna be doing a
23:27
Speaker 1: future is either on Stafford M v P or just
23:29
Speaker 1: that team to win the Super Bowl because it's just
23:32
Speaker 1: a very intriguing offense. I mean, how do we how
23:35
Speaker 1: do we feel about righthe Morris replacing Brandon Staley because
23:40
Speaker 1: I think that's a big loss too, Like, I mean,
23:42
Speaker 1: I think you can't understate what it means to lose
23:45
Speaker 1: your differensive coordinator and lose four starters. That's definitely true.
23:50
Speaker 1: But like we just said that, you still have Donald,
23:53
Speaker 1: you still have Ramsey. I just feel like it's gonna
23:55
Speaker 1: work itself out. Those are just captain leaders, Like the
23:58
Speaker 1: Ravens had guys going in and out of that defensive team.
24:01
Speaker 1: They start Ed Reid, they start ray Lewis. The rest
24:04
Speaker 1: worked itself out for ten years. So that's what I'm
24:06
Speaker 1: banking on. It's like, Okay, when I graded out their numbers,
24:09
Speaker 1: You're definitely right, there's definitely a drop off, but they
24:11
Speaker 1: literally held the Seahawks, what was it, fourteen points or
24:14
Speaker 1: thirteen points in the playoffs at home. I just think
24:17
Speaker 1: it's just such a dominant defense. Even if it's a
24:19
Speaker 1: little step down next year with Stafford's gonna bring to
24:21
Speaker 1: that offense, that's just an uptick that it just it
24:24
Speaker 1: feels like it's balancing itself out a little bit. But
24:26
Speaker 1: I'm with you, that is a major loss losing that
24:28
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. Uh So, Simon, you just you made a
24:32
Speaker 1: really good point. Every single group of wise guys you
24:34
Speaker 1: talked to, uh it's wants to talk about the Rams,
24:37
Speaker 1: and I love that You're like, we do small talk
24:39
Speaker 1: for two minutes, as if any wise guy has ever
24:41
Speaker 1: done any small talk. Ever, there's no more socially awkward
24:44
Speaker 1: group than wise guys. Well, this Rams are ten and
24:48
Speaker 1: a half plus on the over. You said you're not
24:52
Speaker 1: going to bet the Rams over. You're not convinced by
24:55
Speaker 1: everything you're hearing from everybody, No, because I just like,
24:58
Speaker 1: I like you'll you'll see a pattern here. I love
25:00
Speaker 1: unders um. I just I feel comfortable any unders because
25:03
Speaker 1: I just know the logic that as soon as I've
25:05
Speaker 1: been under, I've already given myself above fIF percent chance
25:08
Speaker 1: of that cash. And just because historically under has always
25:10
Speaker 1: come through. But this is just one of those that, like,
25:13
Speaker 1: I keep staring at it with that division, and I
25:16
Speaker 1: know it's between them and the forty niners. One of
25:18
Speaker 1: these teams is going to screw up. I don't want
25:20
Speaker 1: to take either teams over, and I'm banking on the
25:22
Speaker 1: forty Niners that team that screws up. So that's why
25:24
Speaker 1: I'm just taking their under while taking the Seahawks over.
25:26
Speaker 1: And I'm not touching Arizona. Wow, I feel so much
25:31
Speaker 1: more strongly about the forty Niners and the Rams almost
25:34
Speaker 1: like I feel like you and I might have to
25:36
Speaker 1: have a little side action, and I'm loath to do this.
25:39
Speaker 1: I don't like to compete against you, be I feel
25:43
Speaker 1: like you rub it in my face so much. If
25:45
Speaker 1: you win and see you do this professionally and I
25:48
Speaker 1: do it as like a clown, so uh, it can
25:52
Speaker 1: end well for me. But there's something about the Niners
25:55
Speaker 1: against the Rams that I just feel viscerally. I told
26:00
Speaker 1: you chat that's my favorite part about this job, where
26:03
Speaker 1: Anie Joe Schmill on the street can talk to me
26:05
Speaker 1: about what I do. You couldn't go to a like
26:07
Speaker 1: a hard surgeon or a brain doctor and be like, well, actually,
26:10
Speaker 1: I think you're wrong. I think that's where you should
26:12
Speaker 1: go in on the instant. But like, I'll never forget
26:15
Speaker 1: this guy used to go to I used to buy
26:17
Speaker 1: my dip. I used to go to this convenience store
26:19
Speaker 1: at the time, and the guy was like, buddy, who
26:21
Speaker 1: do you like this weekend? I tell him and he goes, oh,
26:24
Speaker 1: so this is week one. He goes, forty Niners are
26:26
Speaker 1: gonna kill Arizona. I go, all right, I'll give you.
26:28
Speaker 1: I'll give you forty nine A plus money, but if
26:30
Speaker 1: you're wrong, you can never ask me again for a bet.
26:33
Speaker 1: And he goes, okay, of course, Arizona beats the forty
26:36
Speaker 1: nine ers by like four or five points, and I goes, hey, man,
26:39
Speaker 1: you're pretty good at this. He's like, you you do
26:41
Speaker 1: it for a living. I was like, no, it's just
26:43
Speaker 1: all luck, you know what I mean, because it's one
26:44
Speaker 1: of those Unif I told him I did, he'd be like, well,
26:46
Speaker 1: do you like this weekend? So it's that's that's the
26:48
Speaker 1: hardest part of this job, Chatt. Even if I'm wrong,
26:50
Speaker 1: you're gonna be the one rubbing in my face, my friend.
26:54
Speaker 1: All right. Uh. The way we did it last week,
26:57
Speaker 1: which I liked, was we went through those teams at
26:59
Speaker 1: the top. Uh. The only difference this week is I
27:03
Speaker 1: almost feel like you have to and again the Packers
27:05
Speaker 1: are crossed out because I think the Packers are off
27:07
Speaker 1: the board in a lot of places. Um. The only
27:10
Speaker 1: other team that I do want to talk about that
27:12
Speaker 1: is just under that double digits, and I feel like
27:14
Speaker 1: we have to talk about him because of the Cowboys,
27:16
Speaker 1: and everybody wants to talk about the Cowboys. Uh, they're
27:19
Speaker 1: at nine and a half in the Seahawks are at
27:20
Speaker 1: night and a half. So do either of you have
27:22
Speaker 1: strong opinions about the Seahawks or the Cowboys win totals?
27:27
Speaker 1: Uh raheem, you start first things first. I am a
27:30
Speaker 1: Cowboys fan, even though I am from Philly, so I
27:33
Speaker 1: know you guys are gonna disown me, especially Signment because
27:35
Speaker 1: he's an Eagles fan. I'm going under, I think you
27:38
Speaker 1: have an Asian offensive line. You have Mike McCarthy, who
27:42
Speaker 1: was probably worth minus three wins. I mean, I know
27:47
Speaker 1: he went to a little analytics seminar which tells him
27:51
Speaker 1: that you gotta go for points on fourth and fifteen,
27:54
Speaker 1: go for fake points on fourth and fifteen or whatever. Um.
27:58
Speaker 1: But I mean, this defense isn't good good, the offensive
28:01
Speaker 1: line is aging. I'm going under I think you've got
28:04
Speaker 1: a bump just because the offense is gonna be really
28:06
Speaker 1: good and it's the Cowboys. But I don't I don't
28:09
Speaker 1: like them in it that that division at all. Yeah.
28:12
Speaker 1: I mean I wish that could be meaner to Cowboys fans,
28:14
Speaker 1: but they've been irrelevant for about twenty five years, so
28:17
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't know, I really can't ever talk
28:19
Speaker 1: that bad to Cowboys fans, but bringing in on the
28:23
Speaker 1: head every year, the easiest bet to make is just
28:25
Speaker 1: bet the Cowboys under. It's a team that will always
28:27
Speaker 1: be propped up because their fan base is so die
28:29
Speaker 1: hard and so loyal. They're across the country, so even
28:32
Speaker 1: in state to state, they're gonna be bet up regardless
28:34
Speaker 1: of where you live. Every year, guys, you bet this
28:37
Speaker 1: under and you bet them not to make the playoffs.
28:40
Speaker 1: And it's I mean, what is the twenty five years.
28:42
Speaker 1: If you've been doing it, you're up a lot of
28:44
Speaker 1: money year to year. So it's just one of those
28:46
Speaker 1: where it sounds very simple, but it's just the way
28:49
Speaker 1: it is, the pressure, everything that goes to being with
28:51
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. It's not even that I dislike Dak. I
28:56
Speaker 1: think he does everything he can to try to put
28:57
Speaker 1: that team in his best position. It's just Jerry. He's
29:00
Speaker 1: just the way he's drafted for them. Like they didn't
29:03
Speaker 1: need another stud receiver, they had a great receiving corps,
29:07
Speaker 1: but he couldn't help himself. You had to take a
29:09
Speaker 1: receiver in the first round last year? Who are this
29:11
Speaker 1: Kid's incredible? Their defense is by far the worst in football,
29:14
Speaker 1: where they should just been drafting defensive players. So for me,
29:18
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, that will always be a fade. I don't
29:20
Speaker 1: care that's up to seventeen games. It's just one of
29:22
Speaker 1: those where I had them great out seven a half.
29:24
Speaker 1: I think I bumped them up to eight once I
29:26
Speaker 1: went to seventeen games and it's still way under nine
29:28
Speaker 1: and a half. But a team that no people are
29:31
Speaker 1: talking about that is at nine wins are the Saints.
29:34
Speaker 1: I think it's a very intriguing that they're just sitting
29:37
Speaker 1: there in nine wins and no one's really talking about
29:39
Speaker 1: them when they lost Drew Brees, a guy who really,
29:43
Speaker 1: I mean, what did you really do for them last year?
29:45
Speaker 1: He was kind of a ball control kind of quarterback.
29:47
Speaker 1: Where I don't know if it's gonna be Winston, I
29:50
Speaker 1: don't know which quarterback will be starting if I have
29:53
Speaker 1: enough faith when I look at paper at this team that, um,
29:56
Speaker 1: I can't get over the amount of town they have
29:58
Speaker 1: and they have a they have a head coach was
30:00
Speaker 1: a Hall of Fame at coach. So when I'm looking
30:02
Speaker 1: at team the nine wins with Sean Payne, I still
30:04
Speaker 1: think that's a team that would definitely get the ten
30:07
Speaker 1: wins and not not saying that the Buccaneers are getting
30:10
Speaker 1: all the hype, but they are. And that's a team
30:13
Speaker 1: that they lost them twice last year and now, like
30:15
Speaker 1: Drew Bilees played out of his mind, that was simply
30:16
Speaker 1: their defense dominated Brady and that offense. So looking at
30:20
Speaker 1: win totals nine wins for the Saints we talked about
30:23
Speaker 1: earlier the year too, chat I like them for best
30:25
Speaker 1: record at I think it was thirty to one or
30:27
Speaker 1: forty one. Just a really outside shot team that the
30:30
Speaker 1: Saints aren't just gonna be getting talked about when people
30:32
Speaker 1: aren't realizing they have all the pieces there. I think
30:35
Speaker 1: that's a team that's really been slept on. Well, this
30:37
Speaker 1: is one of those where quarterbacks mean everything in the NFL,
30:42
Speaker 1: and we did get a little bit of a taste
30:44
Speaker 1: of what the Saints could look like last year when
30:47
Speaker 1: Drew Brees wasn't playing um and and they were you know,
30:52
Speaker 1: they had that sort of that dual threat quarterback situation,
30:59
Speaker 1: but so much press around him retiring that their value
31:04
Speaker 1: is going to be a little bit depressed. Raheem, do
31:06
Speaker 1: you agree or disagree with signing? I do agree. I
31:09
Speaker 1: mean I think that Saints defense was just they were
31:11
Speaker 1: a great defense, and I think they want in spite
31:15
Speaker 1: of Drew Brees. Like Drew Brees, his arm was gone.
31:19
Speaker 1: His arm has been gone for a couple of seasons.
31:21
Speaker 1: So I think if you put Winston in there, you
31:24
Speaker 1: always have the you have you have to worry about turnovers,
31:27
Speaker 1: Like I mean, this guy had a thirty thirty season,
31:29
Speaker 1: thirty touchdowns, thirty interceptions. He's like, I don't know if
31:34
Speaker 1: there's anything to compare Winston too. It's just like he's
31:38
Speaker 1: like a doctor who could just, you know, give you
31:42
Speaker 1: the greatest surgery ever, but you have a fifty percent
31:44
Speaker 1: chance of dying. He can give you that's fucking brilliant.
31:51
Speaker 1: He can he can perform the greatest surgery ever. He
31:54
Speaker 1: might leave a knife behind and he will die of
31:56
Speaker 1: an infection, but the actual, sir, jury will have been amazing. Yeah.
32:02
Speaker 1: So I mean I think that's that's that's pretty much
32:04
Speaker 1: what it is with Winston now tastes them. I think
32:08
Speaker 1: they're gonna go with Tassom because I just he gives
32:11
Speaker 1: you that duel threat ability and as crazy as it sounds,
32:16
Speaker 1: I think he's worth a flyer for m v P
32:19
Speaker 1: because that Saints defense is gonna be good and if
32:23
Speaker 1: they can get you know, a decent amount of wins
32:26
Speaker 1: at like a hundred to one, what's throwing a hundred
32:29
Speaker 1: bucks on there. Yeah, that's something we talked about. We said,
32:34
Speaker 1: he's still plus two twenty to be a week one starter,
32:37
Speaker 1: Taysom Hills. So I'm right there with him. I I
32:40
Speaker 1: think he's We've just seen the way the NFL has
32:42
Speaker 1: shifted to the running quarterbacks. Do we have more running
32:45
Speaker 1: quarterbacks we've ever had in our lifetime? And I mean
32:48
Speaker 1: Sean Payne's on o G Like that guy when he
32:50
Speaker 1: got kicked out the league, he went and coaches like
32:52
Speaker 1: kids football team said they were terrible. I think they
32:55
Speaker 1: went like undefeated backs back years and like it's just
32:57
Speaker 1: one of these things where it's like, I love this guy.
32:59
Speaker 1: I love he loves football so much. I can only
33:02
Speaker 1: think about the stuff he's been cooking up getting ready
33:04
Speaker 1: for this season. So again, nine wins at a seventeen
33:07
Speaker 1: people nine and eight, that's a push, Like, I just
33:09
Speaker 1: think that's crazy good value on the Saints. Well, let
33:12
Speaker 1: me ask you this. Uh you're saying the Saints, you
33:15
Speaker 1: you actively proactively mentioned them at nine wins? Are they
33:20
Speaker 1: your favorite uh wind total bet either over or under
33:27
Speaker 1: for the NFC. I've definitely bet this a lot. Like
33:30
Speaker 1: I I'm trying to chill out because I'm like, why,
33:33
Speaker 1: like I have wait, we all wake up in the
33:34
Speaker 1: middle of night, I'm like, oh my god, Winston's starting.
33:36
Speaker 1: Like I I know, all of a sudden, I'm gonna
33:39
Speaker 1: have way too much money tied up in a Saints
33:41
Speaker 1: team with James starting, because I've been there, I've dranken
33:45
Speaker 1: the kool aid on Jamis and uh, I don't want
33:48
Speaker 1: to experience that again. So anyone betting this, you have
33:51
Speaker 1: to bet it um knowing there's a little bit of
33:55
Speaker 1: risk involved in these bets. Again, that's why I like.
33:57
Speaker 1: I like their best record. I feel like it's a
33:59
Speaker 1: really good value bet for this team because I don't
34:03
Speaker 1: want to say they had the least amount of drama,
34:05
Speaker 1: But these teams at the top from last year, like
34:07
Speaker 1: we already talked about Green Bay, there's just there's a
34:09
Speaker 1: lot of teams have a lot of stuff going on
34:10
Speaker 1: where I just feel like the Saints are this team
34:12
Speaker 1: that's really flying under the radar this year, and that's
34:14
Speaker 1: what you want the betting and football. You want teams
34:16
Speaker 1: that no one's talking about. The Eagles dream team. I
34:18
Speaker 1: don't think they won five games, like you just don't
34:21
Speaker 1: want to be talked about football. That's just kind of
34:23
Speaker 1: what you look for. You didn't answer my question. It's
34:28
Speaker 1: it's not my favorite bet, so give me your favorite.
34:31
Speaker 1: All right, it's gonna, it's gonna. It's it's moved already.
34:34
Speaker 1: That that's the problem. So basically, your favorite bet was
34:37
Speaker 1: the under Texans four wins, which is like, hey, grab
34:43
Speaker 1: your balls and just not up bet. So can it
34:46
Speaker 1: be worse than that? I mean, I could give you
34:49
Speaker 1: even worse because I did love I did love Detroit
34:53
Speaker 1: under five. Detroit opened under five and outsounded four and
34:56
Speaker 1: a half, so it's still good value. But in no
35:00
Speaker 1: world is Detroit getting over five wins this year like
35:02
Speaker 1: again them in Houston. There are openly tanking this year.
35:06
Speaker 1: Both teams are tanking like they. I know, Campbell, the
35:09
Speaker 1: coach of Detroit, can give all these Ray Ross speeches
35:12
Speaker 1: and talk about eating people's legs. They're tanking. This is
35:15
Speaker 1: a terrible, terrible team. So that is one of my
35:17
Speaker 1: favorite bets. But like you said, that's not that fun, Chad.
35:20
Speaker 1: What is more fun? This year than bet in Chicago
35:22
Speaker 1: Bears over seven and a half. You love it, I
35:25
Speaker 1: hate it. It's fun. Okay, for some reason, my my
35:29
Speaker 1: system had a great at eight point one win. So yeah,
35:33
Speaker 1: just because your division, your division is so bad where
35:36
Speaker 1: I had them splitting with the Vikings, I had them
35:39
Speaker 1: splitting somehow with Green Bay, and I have them sweep
35:41
Speaker 1: in Detroit. So they're one of these teams. They might
35:43
Speaker 1: not do great outside your division, but they're gonna play
35:46
Speaker 1: well in the division. There. It is the babblehead reminder reminder.
35:50
Speaker 1: Thank you to daveck in the Chicago Bears, who sent
35:54
Speaker 1: me a whole bunch of swag, including a sid Luckman
35:58
Speaker 1: babo head who until this moment, until the drafting of
36:04
Speaker 1: our savior, Justin Fields, who in every single UH offseason
36:12
Speaker 1: video I watch, which means every off season video that's
36:15
Speaker 1: been created about Justin Fields. UH. That's basically all my
36:20
Speaker 1: younger son and I do right now. We watched the
36:23
Speaker 1: NBA on TV and during commercials or on nights when
36:28
Speaker 1: there isn't n b A, we're just strolling through watching
36:33
Speaker 1: Justin fields highlights. UM. So excited for Justin Fields UH
36:40
Speaker 1: and his performance so excited for what the Bears can
36:43
Speaker 1: possibly be, so ready to go all in on the Bears.
36:50
Speaker 1: Over seven, come on, over seven and a half. We
36:54
Speaker 1: got we got two wins easy against the Lions. They
36:59
Speaker 1: are going seven and ten, Come on, come on eight
37:04
Speaker 1: and nine, and is seventeen game season. That doesn't feel crazy. No,
37:08
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel crazy at all. But is so, is
37:10
Speaker 1: this what you're saying to me? Is this what you're
37:13
Speaker 1: saying to me right now? That your math and my
37:17
Speaker 1: emotions are actually meeting in some kind of you know,
37:22
Speaker 1: kids met like point of confluence that is both beautiful
37:30
Speaker 1: and insane and we're too crazy kids in love with
37:33
Speaker 1: the same thing. Right now, you're basically in the rapportunity
37:36
Speaker 1: where the public is off the Bears that everyone everyone
37:39
Speaker 1: kind of thinks the Bears are a joke. So this
37:41
Speaker 1: this total has come down. That's why I think we're
37:43
Speaker 1: getting great value, your buddy. So it's Bear Chicago Bears.
37:49
Speaker 1: It's the rare opportunity where we're not going to Joe
37:51
Speaker 1: public taking the Bears because I know you've seen the
37:54
Speaker 1: numbers Illinois there like second, they're like the New Vegas
37:57
Speaker 1: there their Betty handle. There's insane it's Illinois. It's not Illinois.
38:03
Speaker 1: It's Illinois. That's the east coast than me. Do we
38:06
Speaker 1: call it Illinois? Not for nothing? By the way, not
38:10
Speaker 1: for nothing. The New York Times had a story about
38:14
Speaker 1: the way the city of Chicago was constructed three years ago,
38:19
Speaker 1: and how they built the buildings in Chicago a hundred
38:22
Speaker 1: and fifty years ago, and the way that they reflowed
38:27
Speaker 1: the direction of the Chicago River away from Lake Michigan
38:31
Speaker 1: to keep sewage out of Lake Michigan since that was
38:35
Speaker 1: where the fresh drinking water is and the hubris entailed
38:39
Speaker 1: in the part of the city planners, and I'm interpreting
38:42
Speaker 1: it this way. Two, I think they can redirect Mother
38:46
Speaker 1: Nature to work in their favor. And it's all a
38:51
Speaker 1: ship show right now with global warming and the different
38:55
Speaker 1: levels of water rising in the lake versus the river
38:58
Speaker 1: and the lock system they've had to create eight and
39:00
Speaker 1: the billions and billions of dollars necessary to try to
39:04
Speaker 1: now control what they know they can't control, which is
39:07
Speaker 1: Mother nature and the way it impacts the sewerge system
39:10
Speaker 1: in Chicago. Uh. I don't know if this city is
39:13
Speaker 1: gonna survive, but it's an amazing stury in the New
39:15
Speaker 1: York Times. We should all read it. Raheem. I'm assuming
39:21
Speaker 1: we can get back to, you know, the frivolous nature
39:24
Speaker 1: of our lives. You're not loving the Chicago Bears the
39:29
Speaker 1: same way we do, so please give me your best
39:32
Speaker 1: season win total bet for the NFC. It's moved a
39:35
Speaker 1: little bit, but I like the Washington football team over
39:40
Speaker 1: eight eight and a half wins. I like to handicap
39:43
Speaker 1: games from the trenches. That's what matters. You know, this
39:47
Speaker 1: team had forty eight sacks last year. They had Chase Young, Montes,
39:50
Speaker 1: sweat around um pain, Jonathan Island. You know, this is
39:55
Speaker 1: one of the best defensive lines in the league. And
39:59
Speaker 1: this team is gonna improve my offense. Like I mean,
40:01
Speaker 1: last year they had the quarterback Carrisau of Duayenne Haskins,
40:07
Speaker 1: Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and then you know Taylor Hennike
40:11
Speaker 1: came in and you know he had he was a
40:13
Speaker 1: spark plug. But those first three, you know, they weren't
40:17
Speaker 1: giving you anything. So this team is gonna be better offensively.
40:20
Speaker 1: They signed Curtis Samuel from UM Carolina. Terry McLaurin is
40:26
Speaker 1: still one of the best wide receivers in the league.
40:29
Speaker 1: I think if Fitzpatrick gives you gives you anything, they
40:32
Speaker 1: go over to total. And I think this is a
40:34
Speaker 1: super Bowl team. Um, as crazy as it sounds, I
40:39
Speaker 1: just think they have too much talent on the defensive
40:41
Speaker 1: side of the ball. Offensively, they're getting better, and you know,
40:45
Speaker 1: they added two corners, they added William Jackson, and then
40:48
Speaker 1: they um drafted to God Jamming. So I really really
40:51
Speaker 1: really liked his defense, and I think the offense is
40:54
Speaker 1: enough to made enough of an improvement to where they
40:57
Speaker 1: should win his division. Listen to me. I love what
41:04
Speaker 1: you're saying. I am in a hundred percent agreement. I
41:09
Speaker 1: would be shocked if Ryan Fitzpatrick is a guy who
41:12
Speaker 1: takes a team to a Super Bowl victory. But I
41:16
Speaker 1: love the over this defensive line, This front four could
41:21
Speaker 1: be historically great. Uh. And I think if you're going
41:24
Speaker 1: to get a defensive line that is that good. Um. Look,
41:27
Speaker 1: they almost beat the box on the way to the
41:29
Speaker 1: super Bowl, like you said, with a quarterback that nobody
41:33
Speaker 1: had ever heard of, who probably uh should have been
41:36
Speaker 1: you know, studying for his master So by all means,
41:40
Speaker 1: I am I am here for this bet Simon. Yeah, Chad,
41:45
Speaker 1: you know We're already locked in. We did our Super
41:46
Speaker 1: Bowl futures in February. This is one of the teams
41:50
Speaker 1: that I made you put way too much money on
41:51
Speaker 1: that didn't get Watson. Like I told you, they're gonna
41:53
Speaker 1: get Watson. But like you said, I know the whole
41:57
Speaker 1: fits thing um, But I will keep going back into
42:00
Speaker 1: it until they get knocked out of playoffs or don't
42:02
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. This Washington team is that Denver team
42:05
Speaker 1: two point out that had Von Miller where Peyton Manny
42:08
Speaker 1: had a dead arm, he couldn't throw the ball or
42:10
Speaker 1: further than fifteen yards. But all you had was just
42:13
Speaker 1: like incredibly dominant defense with offensive weapons around it. And
42:17
Speaker 1: I think that's what I have here in Washington. We
42:19
Speaker 1: have a team with a ton of weapons on offense.
42:21
Speaker 1: Gibson great running back, like you said, McLaren great receiver,
42:25
Speaker 1: and that defensive lineman. You literally will not find a
42:27
Speaker 1: better defense line of football this year. So this is
42:30
Speaker 1: this is a Chase young Bett, but me and Chad
42:33
Speaker 1: I guess for him too. We are all in on
42:34
Speaker 1: Washington football team. I'm a true story about Ryan Fitzpatrick.
42:38
Speaker 1: He actually went to Harvard around the same time that
42:41
Speaker 1: I went to Penn and he is single handedly the
42:45
Speaker 1: reason why my friends don't have an IVY League championship, right.
42:50
Speaker 1: I saw him play back then, and he just dugged
42:52
Speaker 1: us out, And you know, I never thought that he
42:54
Speaker 1: would be here so crazy. I like when someone from
42:59
Speaker 1: the the leagues can come on to this podcast and
43:03
Speaker 1: just in a very humble, braggy way, remind us they
43:09
Speaker 1: went to an IVY League school. Simon was fucking working
43:13
Speaker 1: on Jersey Shore when he was supposed to be in college.
43:16
Speaker 1: I went to Indiana, which like whatever, it's the Cream
43:22
Speaker 1: and Crimson of the Midwest. And Raheem comes in and
43:25
Speaker 1: he's dropping Penn, you know, forty minutes into the show
43:29
Speaker 1: and not even in a relevant way. Hey, Ryan Fitzpatrick
43:32
Speaker 1: went to Harvard at the same time that I went
43:34
Speaker 1: to Penn, so you know I saw him play. That's
43:36
Speaker 1: basically what is Guess what. I didn't go to Penn
43:39
Speaker 1: or Harvard, and I've seen Ryan Fitzpatrick played too. I'm
43:43
Speaker 1: just I mean, I'm a little I've always been a
43:45
Speaker 1: little bit better, just because I wanted my friends to
43:47
Speaker 1: get that IVY League rank, and you know, he he
43:49
Speaker 1: pulled it off. So, by the way, noticed Simon how
43:52
Speaker 1: he's now saying, my friends who are on the football team,
43:55
Speaker 1: I'm really I just feel bad for them. Rahems lived
43:58
Speaker 1: that life, man, Raheems lived that. I mean I was.
44:01
Speaker 1: I was the DJ of like so I was like
44:03
Speaker 1: one of the most popular people on campus. Of course,
44:07
Speaker 1: I just forget that. Raheem had an incredibly cool life
44:09
Speaker 1: before we convinced him to join the Action Network. And
44:13
Speaker 1: you know, my life is cooler now. It's so much
44:16
Speaker 1: cooler now. You gotta understand, like, two weeks into this job,
44:23
Speaker 1: you had people send me a cam quarter with lighting
44:27
Speaker 1: and then told me that I would be doing broadcasts
44:29
Speaker 1: on NBA League Pass. That's true. I gave you so
44:33
Speaker 1: oh my god, you should love me. I've given you
44:35
Speaker 1: so many big opportunities. Um, I do. But but still
44:40
Speaker 1: is that cooler than being on tour as a DJ? Yeah?
44:44
Speaker 1: I think. I mean, maybe I'm just old. Like we
44:49
Speaker 1: had this conversation before the podcast about how you get
44:52
Speaker 1: older and you kind of like you've seen everything. Touring
44:55
Speaker 1: gets old as crazy as it's like, I mean, because
44:59
Speaker 1: it's just plus I make more money betting well, But look,
45:03
Speaker 1: I would agree traveling gets so generally when I was,
45:08
Speaker 1: you know, throughout my thirties or my twenties, and I
45:11
Speaker 1: got out of college and I was working at Sports
45:13
Speaker 1: Illustrator and working at ESPN. You're traveling constantly. You're at
45:18
Speaker 1: the most glamorous places in the world, right because you're
45:20
Speaker 1: covering Super Bowls, You're covering the NFL, You're covering the
45:22
Speaker 1: NBA Finals, you're coming the US Open, you're coming to the
45:24
Speaker 1: the Olympics, whatever. Um. But a lot of it is
45:29
Speaker 1: you're trudging through an airport with a laptop, you're on
45:32
Speaker 1: deadline on a plane, you're staying in a hotel, getting
45:35
Speaker 1: in at two am and having to be out of
45:37
Speaker 1: the room by eight am, and if you're shuttling from
45:41
Speaker 1: one facility to another. Like, there's a lot of fun
45:45
Speaker 1: to it, but it also becomes very sort of wrote
45:49
Speaker 1: and and the glamour isn't as great as you would think. Yeah, Like,
45:53
Speaker 1: I'll put it this way. Imagine when you're twenty and
45:56
Speaker 1: you're twenty five, your DJing for people your age, or
46:01
Speaker 1: when you're nineteen you djam for people your age. Imagine
46:03
Speaker 1: being thirty five and you you have to be around
46:06
Speaker 1: a bunch of twenty one year olds and your your
46:09
Speaker 1: job is to entertain them. It's not as glamorous as
46:12
Speaker 1: it seems. When people your age have aged out of
46:17
Speaker 1: coming to see you, sounds like fucking parenting. That's exactly
46:23
Speaker 1: what it is, except instead of like playing you know,
46:27
Speaker 1: all right, sit down and listen to this Bernie record,
46:30
Speaker 1: you're like telling him to listen to some music that
46:33
Speaker 1: you might not even like anymore exactly. And that's that's
46:36
Speaker 1: why what happened to me. I feel terrible hanging out
46:39
Speaker 1: friends who are married or have kids, Like they asked
46:42
Speaker 1: me what I'm up to when I tell them about
46:43
Speaker 1: my life, and I feel like I'm rubbing in their face.
46:45
Speaker 1: I just have a life where it's like, what are
46:47
Speaker 1: you guys up to? It's like, oh, the kids reversed
46:49
Speaker 1: sleeping and we haven't slepping about four months, and it's
46:51
Speaker 1: just like, oh my god, I gotta get out of here. Yeah,
46:53
Speaker 1: by the way, not for nothing. If Raheem's gonna get it,
46:57
Speaker 1: so are you. You're the guy who we've been through
47:00
Speaker 1: four months talking about how sad you are and how
47:04
Speaker 1: you're so in love and how love means everything, and
47:08
Speaker 1: now you've got to figure out how to have a
47:09
Speaker 1: life without love. Or fine, love so you can have
47:12
Speaker 1: kids one day. Come on, so, oh wait, you got
47:15
Speaker 1: rid of the girl you were talking to a couple
47:17
Speaker 1: of months ago. By the way, before you answer this question,
47:20
Speaker 1: let's frame this in the right way. We don't get
47:23
Speaker 1: rid of women we are having and sometimes they may
47:27
Speaker 1: choose to be with us, and oftentimes they may choose
47:30
Speaker 1: to not be with us. Let's frame it in the
47:33
Speaker 1: appropriate way that you're you're right, I'm I'm dead wrong, Yeah,
47:37
Speaker 1: dead wrong. I would try to move on and I
47:40
Speaker 1: failed miserably, and I was just like, I mnna take
47:43
Speaker 1: a break, and then, of course, like every X does,
47:46
Speaker 1: she hit me up. Now I can't get rid of
47:47
Speaker 1: her again. We're not getting back together. I don't want
47:50
Speaker 1: to say, because you listened to our show, So I'm
47:52
Speaker 1: not gonna say too much because then she knows what
47:54
Speaker 1: I'm up to. But yeah, who knows, dude. It's like
47:58
Speaker 1: you know when you like you should move on, but
47:59
Speaker 1: you don't want to. I think we're both in that
48:01
Speaker 1: stage of life where it's like it's not gonna work.
48:03
Speaker 1: We know it's not gonna work, but we can't leave
48:04
Speaker 1: each other alone. But like I'm hoping once football comes
48:08
Speaker 1: I can just she'll get rid of me. I'll get
48:09
Speaker 1: rid of her because I'll just be able to just
48:11
Speaker 1: spend time on football. Because right now, like Chad said,
48:13
Speaker 1: I just have way too much free time. That's what's
48:16
Speaker 1: that's the problem right now. It's like I need structure.
48:18
Speaker 1: That's what Chad's great for. I bring structure, and I
48:21
Speaker 1: will touch you in the middle of the game and
48:23
Speaker 1: say we need to get on the phone right away,
48:25
Speaker 1: even when you know your heart is on the line,
48:27
Speaker 1: which you're a very sensitive on little person, so your
48:30
Speaker 1: heart is often on the line. Yeah right, I'm I'm
48:34
Speaker 1: the most robotic person everywhere comes to gambling. But love
48:37
Speaker 1: and life, yes, I'm very much, really emotional. That's why
48:40
Speaker 1: we're simpatico man, because we hope we love love. I'm
48:45
Speaker 1: emotional too, so part of our emotional relationship here. You
48:49
Speaker 1: can be the third third person in the three amigos.
48:54
Speaker 1: I can help. I can help both of you in
48:56
Speaker 1: your wayward love lives. I'm in a happy, secure, uh
49:00
Speaker 1: respectful long term relationship with my wife. I'm trying to
49:03
Speaker 1: learn I've been struggling with this. Well, I'm here for you.
49:06
Speaker 1: I've got a lot of advice can do that to himself.
49:09
Speaker 1: He's good looking. Do with money. I'm sure he does
49:11
Speaker 1: pretty well the ladies. It's all choices, my man. I
49:14
Speaker 1: mean's just fine. The thing is, I mean, it's one
49:17
Speaker 1: thing to do well with the ladies, but sometimes sometimes
49:20
Speaker 1: you just want that one person to build a life with.
49:22
Speaker 1: Here's what we're gonna tell people to do. I'm gonna
49:24
Speaker 1: tell them that the Washington football team probably gonna have
49:27
Speaker 1: to get over eight. We're gonna tell about the Bears
49:30
Speaker 1: over seven and a half. We're gonna tell him about
49:32
Speaker 1: the Saints over nine. We're gonna tell him about the
49:35
Speaker 1: Niners under ten and a half. I guess, and that's
49:38
Speaker 1: pretty much it. Maybe we'll tell him about the Rams
49:40
Speaker 1: over ten and a half. What do we think now,
49:41
Speaker 1: I don't do it. Don't do it. Take the Eagles
49:43
Speaker 1: under two, Eagles under six and a half. He's gonna
49:46
Speaker 1: he's gonna be bad, all right. This has been the
49:50
Speaker 1: favorite podcast for Reheing Palmer, for Simon Hunter. I am
49:54
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. We are here for all your dating advice,
49:58
Speaker 1: for all your relationship advice, for all your betting advice,
50:02
Speaker 1: whatever you need. We are the place for you, because
50:06
Speaker 1: why wouldn't you want to take advice from someone who's
50:08
Speaker 1: been married for twenty three years and two guys who
50:11
Speaker 1: can't have a relationship don't last longer than a football season.
50:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. This has been The Favorites. Download
50:18
Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple, podcast, from Spotify, wherever you get
50:20
Speaker 1: your podcast. Will be back Thursday for the thunder Nome
50:25
Speaker 1: edition of The Favorites. Love You