Latest / Inside Politics / The magical mystery tour of immigration numbers, and the new One Nation voter profile

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The magical mystery tour of immigration numbers, and the new One Nation voter profile · Inside Politics

0:02
S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from
0:04
S1: the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Joining me from
0:08
S1: Canberra is our chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell. As usual. Hello, Paul.
0:12
S1: How are you?
0:13
S2: Good morning Jack, how are you doing?
0:14
S1: Very good. Paul, you reported on some interesting polling this
0:18
S1: week that was grappling with what makes One Nation voters tick.
0:21
S1: It was polling by former labor pollster John Ushing. And
0:24
S1: I think it was for a labor think tank maybe
0:26
S1: to be passed on to labor members of Parliament. And
0:29
S1: it was an online survey of about 1001 nation supporters.
0:33
S1: What did it tell us?
0:35
S2: Yeah, it was an interesting survey and quite well put
0:37
S2: together and revealing. It's been talked about quite a bit
0:40
S2: by political types this week. So John Edwards, a former
0:43
S2: labor pollster, didn't work for the Labor Party, but he
0:46
S2: did Labor Party polling for about 10 or 15 federal
0:49
S2: elections up until 2019. And Bruce Hawker, who you might
0:53
S2: remember from your Canberra days, Jack, who was Kevin Rudd's
0:56
S2: key adviser. Yes. And what they did was did a
0:59
S2: bunch of focus groups to understand how One Nation voters
1:02
S2: were thinking about the world, and then they put together
1:04
S2: a survey to try and tease out some of those questions.
1:07
S2: And what it found. I thought the top line issue,
1:09
S2: and some people thought this was an obvious point to make,
1:12
S2: but the reason we let our news story with it
1:14
S2: was because most polls, all polls really in the last
1:17
S2: year or two have shown that cost of living is the.
1:20
S2: By far and away the number one issue among all voters.
1:23
S2: And we've heard this ad nauseam. People are probably sick
1:26
S2: of me saying it on this podcast and our news
1:28
S2: stories talking about it. But inflation has been a real problem.
1:31
S2: But among One Nation voters, and a thousand of them
1:33
S2: were surveyed in this poll, immigration is ahead of cost
1:37
S2: of living. And the immigration issue, according to John Uddin,
1:40
S2: is the one that really creates differentiation for one nation
1:44
S2: because it's it's a hotter issue. There's greater levels of
1:48
S2: difference between the major parties on their positions. And for
1:52
S2: many One Nation voters, Pauline Hanson is the only person
1:55
S2: talking about migration in the terms that they're comfortable with
1:59
S2: and that resonate with them.
2:01
S1: Yeah, I was interested. This was quite a shocking figure
2:04
S1: for me. 91% of One Nation supporters think that the
2:07
S1: country is heading in the wrong direction, and that compares
2:10
S1: to 62% of all voters who think the country's heading
2:14
S1: in the wrong direction, which is also not great news
2:17
S1: for the government. But it strikes me that these One
2:19
S1: Nation voters overwhelmingly, they don't just want a change in government.
2:22
S1: They want like a complete about face. It's sort of
2:25
S1: almost like a revolutionary stance.
2:28
S2: Yeah. And this goes to a point that there's a
2:31
S2: group of One Nation voters who have joined Pauline Hanson's
2:34
S2: cause more recently, who just feel really annoyed with the system.
2:39
S2: There's an underrated phenomenon here where many conservatives looked at
2:44
S2: Peter Dutton, and for a long period of last term,
2:47
S2: there was a narrative that Peter Dutton was on track
2:49
S2: to win or get really close to winning, and that
2:51
S2: Albanese may well be a one term prime minister, a rare,
2:55
S2: um feat. and his severe loss and the drubbing that
2:59
S2: he received, which was not expected among conservative voters and
3:03
S2: not expected among the mainstream press either, rattled some of
3:06
S2: these conservative voters, and that led them to just flee
3:09
S2: the Liberal Party, because that result was so severe and
3:12
S2: so unexpected that they've just looked for something different. And
3:15
S2: One Nation is presented as that alternative. And among many
3:19
S2: of these voters, they're keen to just upend the system
3:21
S2: because they don't understand how labor is ascended into such
3:25
S2: a dominant position.
3:26
S1: Mhm. Yeah. The research, according to the research, about 50%
3:30
S1: of One Nation voters or supporters are rusted on. And
3:34
S1: they'll sort of they're almost sort of Maga style. Like
3:36
S1: they'll stick with Pauline no matter what. And the other
3:39
S1: half are less a little bit more sort of. They
3:42
S1: have to hold their nose a little bit more for
3:43
S1: some of the more extreme anti-Muslim rhetoric, the stance on abortion,
3:47
S1: her relationship with Gina Rinehart, these sort of weak spots,
3:50
S1: if you like, for those voters. What? I mean, that's
3:53
S1: an opportunity, isn't it, for coalition and for labor to
3:56
S1: to pick off that 50% who are not so sure
4:00
S1: and not so rusted on?
4:01
S2: Yeah. It is. And this was a really interesting part
4:04
S2: of this survey is it was quite long and it
4:07
S2: put at various points of the survey, some of these
4:10
S2: criticisms of Hanson to these voters. And why that's important
4:15
S2: is because we're so far out from an election in
4:19
S2: Canberra that many people who are looking at Hanson are
4:22
S2: not closely scrutinizing federal politics, and that's not a criticism
4:26
S2: of them. They've just got other things going on in
4:28
S2: their lives than an election so far away in the
4:30
S2: one state where there is some scrutiny on the different
4:33
S2: options and how to defeat a progressive government in labor,
4:37
S2: which is Victoria, because an election is coming quite soon
4:40
S2: there in November, there is a noticeable trend among all
4:43
S2: polls back to the Liberal Party. So the message there,
4:47
S2: or what the meaning there is that if you're a liberal,
4:51
S2: you're gaining some hope. Because when conservatives who are flirting
4:54
S2: with One Nation. Actually, look at the liberal alternative and
4:57
S2: think who's best to govern, who's best to beat labor.
5:00
S2: There appears to be a drift back to the coalition. Now,
5:03
S2: what this survey tries to do is, at a national level,
5:06
S2: puts to these voters, looking at Hanson, some contentious issues
5:09
S2: that you mentioned. So her very hard line stance on abortion,
5:12
S2: on industrial relations, sacking, quote, lazy workers, her close relationship
5:17
S2: with Gina Rinehart. And what it finds is that among
5:20
S2: Hanson's newer voters, which are plentiful because her votes grown
5:23
S2: so quickly, there is about 20% of them who are
5:27
S2: willing to look back at the coalition. After hearing those criticisms,
5:30
S2: a much smaller number in the single digits of her
5:33
S2: rusted on supporters. Now that 20% seems relatively low. But
5:38
S2: human psychology means that most people who have a view
5:42
S2: are not willing to say or not open about saying
5:44
S2: that they would shift it. It takes a lot for
5:46
S2: someone to say, oh yeah, maybe my view on that's
5:48
S2: not right. So the 20% gives liberals a little bit,
5:51
S2: a little bit of hope that when some light gets
5:54
S2: shone on Hansen as an election nears, some drift back.
5:57
S2: That's the Pollyanna ish view, anyway.
5:59
S1: Yeah, and you don't have to answer to anyone for
6:01
S1: what you do in the ballot box. It's entirely your business. Yeah,
6:04
S1: it means though. I mean, this tells me that it
6:07
S1: might be harder for Pauline Hanson to build a broader
6:10
S1: based movement and to appeal more to the middle, because
6:14
S1: the middle is a little bit wary of some of
6:16
S1: her more extreme elements. There are extreme elements, and we've
6:19
S1: seen that repeatedly with One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts, and
6:22
S1: he sort of flirts with, you know, people who are
6:24
S1: associated with neo-Nazis and white, white supremacists. So, I mean,
6:29
S1: isn't she going to struggle to hold together like the
6:31
S1: extreme end of her movement and the sort of more
6:33
S1: mainstream voter who yes, they're worried about immigration and cost
6:36
S1: of living and infrastructure, but they also don't want to see,
6:40
S1: I don't know, abortion cancelled. And, you know, the nation
6:44
S1: sort of beholden to the interests of Gina Rinehart, perhaps.
6:47
S2: Yeah. Well, you're right, it's treacherous for Hanson at this
6:50
S2: point because most aren't paying attention, she doesn't quite yet
6:54
S2: have to make a call on whether she becomes more
6:58
S2: mainstream or sticks to her more radical, more ideological program.
7:02
S2: But a good display of this is over the migration policy,
7:06
S2: which they've been really in crisis over for a couple
7:09
S2: of weeks. If we were near an election and they
7:10
S2: were in this level of turmoil over a key policy,
7:13
S2: this would be the only story in the country. But
7:16
S2: because we're so far away, it's a second or third
7:18
S2: order issue. And what's happened there is for months, Pauline
7:22
S2: Hanson on her website and in some tweets, was saying
7:26
S2: that One Nation would only let in 130 000 people
7:30
S2: per year. Now, in a net sense, given there are
7:32
S2: many people who leave, that number would lead to net
7:35
S2: negative migration. So it would be we would be depopulating
7:39
S2: on the basis of just migration, not considering births, but
7:42
S2: as after David Farley got in, this is the pharaoh
7:45
S2: or MP from a regional seat. He's an agribusiness guy,
7:48
S2: believes in migration. Farley has said that he has got
7:51
S2: Hansen to change her policy, and that the 130 000
7:55
S2: is the net figure. So a growth of 130 000,
7:58
S2: which is a vast, vast difference. And so what that
8:01
S2: indicates is that one nation has come to a more
8:03
S2: pragmatic view. They're going through a lower number lower than labour.
8:08
S2: But they're not talking about net migration anymore. So already
8:11
S2: you're seeing the rubber hit the road where these ideological
8:14
S2: positions and quite radical positions on net negative migration are
8:20
S2: coming up in contest with the economic needs of particularly
8:23
S2: regional communities. And you're seeing the online far right base
8:28
S2: of Hanson become really, really angry in the last week.
8:31
S2: I urge anyone to go on Twitter now called X
8:34
S2: to look at the reaction there, because Hanson has shifted
8:37
S2: away from the hard right position. So that might be
8:39
S2: the first of many similar conundrums.
8:42
S1: Mhm. I mean, it also just brings into question the
8:45
S1: credibility of, you know, any target being reached. If they
8:48
S1: can't come up with a credible target or a target
8:52
S1: that they can sort of that's fixed. I mean, there's
8:56
S1: sort of two issues, isn't there? Because the rusted on
8:59
S1: One Nation voter, the sort of more hard line One
9:01
S1: Nation voter, if you like, is very sort of worried
9:05
S1: or anxious about the kind of immigrant that comes in.
9:09
S1: And we won't speculate on what that means. But I
9:12
S1: think everybody knows what I'm talking about. And then the
9:15
S1: less rusted on and more sort of flirting with one
9:18
S1: nation supporter is just worried about the numbers. They're like, look,
9:21
S1: it's just a population issue. The the infrastructure and housing
9:25
S1: can't sustain all the immigrants that we've got coming in.
9:28
S1: So that's something that that one nation could either really
9:32
S1: exploit that difference or and they could also really trip
9:35
S1: themselves up there. Right?
9:37
S2: Yeah. This is another one of the interesting cleavages on
9:41
S2: all of what Hanson's supporters almost are interested in the
9:44
S2: migration question. And you're now seeing the coalition and labor
9:48
S2: step away from defending the system. The coalition is talking
9:51
S2: about similar deportation policies to one nation. Their number is
9:55
S2: not as low, but they're shifting in the same direction,
9:57
S2: and labor is no longer defending the system. They're saying
10:00
S2: that something needs to change, too. So this is a
10:03
S2: really across the board consensus that the migration system does
10:07
S2: need change. But in terms of Hanson's support base, there
10:10
S2: are some who have been with her for longer who are,
10:13
S2: as you say, less interested in numbers and more interested
10:15
S2: in cultural questions. They have the view that there is
10:18
S2: too much change, that migration is changing the face of
10:22
S2: the country, the ethnic mix, too quickly. But Hanson's newer
10:26
S2: supporters and this includes, according to the researchers, many, many migrants,
10:29
S2: including first generation migrants who believe that the numbers are
10:33
S2: too high. We don't build enough houses. The roads are
10:36
S2: too busy. These are very common complaints that labor and
10:39
S2: coalition people are picking up in the community and on
10:41
S2: the on the more rusted on group who believe that
10:44
S2: there is a problem around assimilation and, you know, values. Uh,
10:49
S2: James Campbell and the Herald Sun wrote a good column.
10:51
S2: And on this question, he said at the nub of it,
10:54
S2: the concern among these voters is that there is a
10:57
S2: problem with the assimilation. Assimilation in the Muslim community, particularly
11:01
S2: in western Sydney. And emerging, is another concern around the
11:06
S2: quantity of migration from India. And you saw this bubble
11:10
S2: away online when Modi visited. There was a big reaction
11:13
S2: from the online right to say, why are we hosting
11:17
S2: the Indian leader in Australia? This is not what you know,
11:21
S2: Australian authorities.
11:23
S1: Sorry to interrupt you, but how do we know that
11:24
S1: that's actually organic and not just a whole bunch of
11:26
S1: trolls sort of beating, being beaten up by people who've
11:30
S1: got an interest in doing this?
11:31
S2: Because it's, it's, um, in comment sections, you can see
11:35
S2: it flood in and many of the comments have have
11:38
S2: a obviously racist tone to the.
11:41
S1: Comment sections of which of our newspaper.
11:43
S2: Yeah. well, not our newspaper, but on social media for politicians.
11:47
S2: They're picking this up that there's this. And Jacinta Price
11:49
S2: referenced it six or so months ago, which got her
11:52
S2: sacked from the coalition frontbench. She specifically talked about Indian
11:55
S2: migrants and labor allegedly and falsely bringing them in to
11:59
S2: vote for labor. So there is an emerging conversation in
12:03
S2: the right about migration from that community. Now, I'm not
12:06
S2: suggesting it is a problem, but there was a yeah.
12:10
S1: I guess I just I always, I always with online
12:13
S1: sort of backlash stuff. And this is a bit of
12:15
S1: a side issue, but I always wonder how much of
12:17
S1: it is representative of organic stuff that's happening in the community.
12:20
S1: And you know, I live in Sydney, very multicultural community.
12:23
S1: It doesn't always sort of play out with what's happening
12:27
S1: on the ground, and it's used selectively by certain politicians
12:30
S1: that you've just mentioned. But I mean, I'm not denying
12:33
S1: that it's an issue and it's an issue for a
12:35
S1: lot of people. Let's talk about where labor and the
12:38
S1: coalition are on this issue of immigration, because I think
12:42
S1: they're having to be a little bit more realistic, really,
12:44
S1: about the tension between cutting immigration and the execution of
12:48
S1: cutting whatever visa class that you decide to cut. So
12:52
S1: labor has said it will cut net overseas migration to 225,
12:55
S1: which is a figure I think it's got it's you know,
12:57
S1: it's already out there. And then the coalition says it
13:00
S1: will cut to 175 and it's currently sitting. Just for context,
13:03
S1: it's currently sitting at about 300,000. So both of those
13:07
S1: numbers are major cuts. Labor has given some indication of
13:10
S1: which visa classes it might cut. It seems to be
13:12
S1: really particularly focusing on international student visas and families and also,
13:18
S1: you know, brought down the number of refugee visas. What
13:21
S1: else is it going to do or what? We don't
13:23
S1: know yet, because Tony Burke still hasn't given his landmark speech.
13:26
S1: But what's the indication?
13:27
S2: Yeah, there's there's there's been so many stories suggesting different
13:30
S2: elements are in play. And I think that's, that's the
13:33
S2: reality is that everything is in play. The government's concerned
13:36
S2: that it hasn't been able to get the number down
13:38
S2: quickly or as quick as they said that they would
13:40
S2: be able to. It's proved really hard to get below
13:42
S2: that 300 000 number, and part of that is because
13:46
S2: of the ability to get people out of the country
13:49
S2: who come. So there are lots of people who have
13:51
S2: come on temporary visas, particularly ex-students and backpackers, who find
13:55
S2: different ways to appeal to jump onto bridging visas. Some
14:00
S2: of them who just exit the system entirely. There's now
14:02
S2: about 8000 people who have exhausted all their options but
14:06
S2: exist illegally in Australia, many of whom work, and that
14:09
S2: number is growing. So a big focus will be how
14:11
S2: do you stop people who are in the country either
14:14
S2: bringing their family in when they shouldn't, jumping onto other
14:18
S2: visas to extend their stay. So increasing the number who
14:21
S2: flow out, which helps that that net number. But on
14:25
S2: the on the inflows, there's a key focus on students.
14:28
S2: The government's already been trying to tighten up on students
14:30
S2: for the best part of, you know, two years. But
14:33
S2: then there's all these uncapped demand driven programs like New
14:37
S2: Zealanders coming in who've come in in really big numbers.
14:40
S2: The government was warned about this three years ago when
14:42
S2: they made a change, giving quicker access to welfare for Kiwis.
14:46
S2: Given our economy is much stronger and we're a wealthier country,
14:49
S2: that we get significant inflows. There's been a lot of
14:52
S2: British backpackers and the government has no real ability to
14:55
S2: control those numbers because we have agreements with those nations.
14:58
S2: So it's bloody hard.
15:00
S1: On the coalition side. They're obviously going to protect agricultural
15:04
S1: workers in in particular. And there's various programs that bring
15:07
S1: in agricultural workers on short stay visas to help out,
15:11
S1: you know, with farmers. They want to protect those visa
15:13
S1: classes at sort of at all costs. But they also
15:16
S1: have a proposal basically to have an enforcement regime. So
15:20
S1: the kinds of people that you're talking about who are
15:22
S1: staying illegally or who've exhausted all avenues and are sort
15:25
S1: of hanging around, slipping through the cracks, the coalition wants
15:28
S1: to actively seek those people out and expel them from
15:31
S1: the country. Isn't that right?
15:32
S2: Well, we we reported about two weeks ago that this
15:35
S2: was part of the Tony Burke plan was to put
15:38
S2: significantly more money into the officials who actually go out
15:42
S2: to farms or illegal brothels or, you know, clothing manufacturing
15:47
S2: businesses that use very cheap illegal workers to get them
15:50
S2: out of the country, because currently very little is done
15:54
S2: on the enforcement side. And these people are largely just
15:57
S2: allowed to roam. And so the government is mulling and
16:00
S2: was going to put in its proposal before it was
16:03
S2: canned a few weeks ago, some more money into enforcement
16:06
S2: actions to actually deport people.
16:08
S1: And do we know if that's still part of Tony
16:10
S1: Burke's plan? Because, I mean, that might have been one
16:12
S1: of the things that that cabinet got a bit sort
16:14
S1: of nervous about or had some objections to.
16:18
S2: Yeah. You're right. It did get people a little bit nervous.
16:21
S2: The government was never going to pitch this as a
16:23
S2: Trump style Ice policy to, you know, with plain clothed
16:26
S2: people running down the streets, grabbing people, putting them into vans,
16:29
S2: which is obviously not an Australian approach, certainly not an
16:32
S2: Australian Labor approach. But even the the word deportation sounds
16:37
S2: scary and can send shockwaves through certain communities. So yeah,
16:41
S2: it did. It did raise some concerns, and I don't
16:43
S2: know if we'll be in the final package.
16:45
S1: Yeah, we'll find out. And I'm sure you'll be the
16:47
S1: first to report it. I, Paul, I want to touch
16:50
S1: briefly on data centers because the Prime Minister it's a
16:53
S1: bit of a sleeper issue. I think it's going to
16:56
S1: be huge and, you know, possibly will really panic the community,
16:59
S1: which I think is one of the reasons why the
17:01
S1: government wants to get out ahead of it. Prime Minister
17:03
S1: Anthony Albanese will gave his flagship AI speech a while back.
17:08
S1: Now he's sought some consensus from national cabinet. But on
17:11
S1: what exactly and what did he achieve on data centres?
17:13
S2: Yeah, I agree with you. This could turn into a
17:16
S2: massive political talking point. But on the other hand, I
17:19
S2: wonder if you've, um what your view is on this.
17:21
S2: Do you know any anybody who has a data centre
17:24
S2: being built next to them. Like, do you have any
17:26
S2: family or friends who know about them being built?
17:28
S1: No, but I know in I we've the Herald, Sydney
17:32
S1: Morning Herald reported on one that's going to be apparently
17:34
S1: proposed to be built along the cooks River. So which is,
17:37
S1: you know, sort of southern west, south west and Sydney.
17:41
S1: So I think this is what I mean. I don't
17:42
S1: think anyone knows anyone. I don't know anyone who's got
17:45
S1: one in their like in their backyard yet. But there's
17:48
S1: all these proposals and I feel like it's coming down
17:50
S1: the pike and the government, as soon as people get
17:53
S1: them in their backyards or, you know, in their beloved
17:55
S1: parklands or whatever, they're going to start, the outcry will
17:59
S1: begin and people will be like, what are we doing
18:01
S1: this for? And why? Why are they allowed to take
18:03
S1: up so much energy and water?
18:05
S2: And what's it doing for you?
18:06
S1: That's right. Is it just going to destroy the jobs
18:08
S1: of tomorrow? Leave my children unemployed?
18:12
S2: The. There's a huge amount of exaggeration about the energy usage,
18:17
S2: particularly water. Like if you look at the water usage
18:20
S2: globally for data centres compared to, for example, the beef sector, many,
18:26
S2: many other sectors like those. They just dwarf data centres,
18:29
S2: water use and many of the new data centres use
18:31
S2: closed loop systems anyway. So the water question's been beaten
18:35
S2: out of proportion. Energy usage is a more significant issue.
18:38
S2: Currently uses 2% of the grid. The estimates are that
18:40
S2: by 2030, I think it'll be 6% and then up
18:43
S2: into the low teens 20 years later. So that is
18:46
S2: a significant problem. And you're totally right, the government came
18:49
S2: out early on this a month or two ago to
18:51
S2: say that we'll set mandatory rules for these data center
18:54
S2: providers to offset their energy use, so that Australian power
18:58
S2: prices will not go up. The government knows that there's
19:01
S2: no big constituency in the community who will advocate for
19:04
S2: data centres. It's AI will potentially, in the eyes of
19:08
S2: its its creators, create like diffuse benefit. Everyone will be
19:13
S2: a little bit more productive, the economy will go a
19:16
S2: little bit better, but there's no individual group in a
19:18
S2: similar way to the climate change movement, for example, there's
19:21
S2: a strong environmental group in the society who will advocate
19:24
S2: for climate action. There is no group in the society
19:28
S2: advocating for AI adoption quickly except the business community, kind of.
19:32
S2: So the government knows that it has to get its
19:34
S2: arms around this to create social licence, because there's no
19:37
S2: there's no punter in the street saying, oh, and we
19:39
S2: need that data centre.
19:40
S1: And I'm not sure that the government has done a
19:42
S1: very good job so far at advocating for the data
19:45
S1: centres and advocating for telling the Australian public why we
19:48
S1: need them and what benefit they will bring to us.
19:50
S1: They sort of talk in global terms about productivity and
19:53
S1: enormous amounts of investment, but it's not clear how a
19:57
S1: data centre, once it's been constructed, will add jobs or
20:00
S1: add value to the Australian economy or, you know, elevate
20:03
S1: people's lives. Like, I just don't know if they've done
20:05
S1: a very good job yet of communicating that they're sort
20:08
S1: of vague talk about sovereign capability. And like, you know,
20:11
S1: I mean, I know John O. Dunningham for the coalition
20:13
S1: talked about this and said, you know, if we don't
20:16
S1: if we don't have these, these data centres and start
20:18
S1: working on AI capability ourselves, then the Chinese will just
20:22
S1: do it for us. And that will be a disaster.
20:24
S1: But as far as I can tell, nobody's saying like
20:27
S1: none of these international companies are saying, let us set
20:31
S1: up in Australia so that we can share our IP
20:34
S1: with you. And you guys can also become, you know,
20:37
S1: AI innovators there, just like, can we come here and
20:39
S1: use your resources?
20:41
S2: Yeah. The economic and sovereignty arguments are really powerful, but
20:45
S2: they're poorly made. And, and there's, I mean, is there
20:49
S2: a group in society who, which are that is less
20:54
S2: trusted than the kind of tech sector, um, heads in
20:59
S2: the US, the Sam Altman, Dari Ahmadi, Elon Musk, Mark
21:03
S2: Zuckerberg group. I would doubt it. So there's not there's
21:06
S2: not a residual goodwill to believe that these firms will
21:10
S2: create benefit for communities anywhere. And in fact, the overriding
21:14
S2: message that we've heard from people like Sam Altman is
21:17
S2: that they're creating a technology with no guardrails at warp
21:22
S2: speed that could wipe out huge sections of the labour market.
21:25
S2: So why would anyone believe them? So it is it
21:27
S2: is good that our governments stepping into the mix. And
21:30
S2: by the way, I actually think AI could be fantastic
21:32
S2: for the. For everyone, but it's a difficult case to
21:35
S2: make because of how scary it is.
21:37
S1: And nobody really knows. And Bill gates had an essay
21:39
S1: that was just published this week where he said, you know,
21:42
S1: it could either be the greatest thing for intergenerational equity
21:45
S1: or for, you know, for social equity ever, or the
21:47
S1: worst thing for social equity ever. And he said that
21:50
S1: he's never in his life wanted the, the creation of
21:53
S1: a technology or the development of a technology to slow down.
21:56
S1: But he wants that with AI. And yeah, I mean,
21:59
S1: I if Bill gates doesn't know if it's going to
22:01
S1: be good or bad, then I don't know. I guess
22:03
S1: the government is just hedging its bets, but I don't
22:05
S1: know if they've done a very good job so far
22:07
S1: of bringing the people along with them.
22:09
S2: Yeah, I think the PM is doing better than some
22:11
S2: other leaders. And Andrew Charlton, the the AI guy. I
22:13
S2: give real credit to some of the arguments he's been making.
22:16
S2: But you're right, it's I'm not sure it's reached the
22:18
S2: public's consciousness yet.
22:20
S1: Yeah. So the Prime Minister has said that he wants
22:22
S1: the data centers to be powered by renewable energy. But
22:25
S1: at National Cabinet he gave a carve out basically an
22:28
S1: exception to that rule, to New South Wales and Queensland.
22:31
S1: Is that right, Paul?
22:32
S2: Yeah. This was a weeks long contest where Chris Bowen,
22:35
S2: the energy minister, put a really hard line and said
22:38
S2: that there must be renewable energy to power data centres,
22:41
S2: not other types of sources, particularly fossil fuels. He said
22:45
S2: the gas could be used for firming behind the scenes,
22:47
S2: but not in a direct way. But the communique, released
22:51
S2: after national cabinet yesterday didn't mention renewable energy, and David Crisafulli,
22:56
S2: the LNP leader of Queensland, said that he was really
22:58
S2: pleased to effectively receive a carve out which would allow
23:02
S2: Queensland and the Northern Territory to use excess coal generation,
23:06
S2: which they have a lot of in Queensland, in particular
23:08
S2: to power data centres. The coalition cast this as a
23:12
S2: bit of an embarrassment for labor, and the Prime Minister
23:15
S2: was also talking up co-operation and softened what was before
23:20
S2: Wednesday a much more rigid position.
23:23
S1: Yeah. Anyway, we're going to keep a watch on it
23:25
S1: and I'm particularly interested in this subject. I think it's fascinating.
23:29
S1: So we will keep an eye on it along with
23:31
S1: many other things. Paul, thank you for joining us and
23:34
S1: bringing your wisdom and your time and also your denim
23:38
S1: shirt to the podcast this week.
23:40
S2: Yeah, it's been a it's been a hiatus. I'm glad it's,
23:43
S2: it's reprised. I couldn't believe you didn't notice immediately.
23:46
S1: The people, the people have spoken of you and you've listened.
23:49
S1: They wanted it back. Well, I wanted it back. And
23:52
S1: it's great.
23:53
S2: Happy, happy to assist. Thanks for having me and good
23:55
S2: to talk, as always.
23:59
S1: Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong with help from
24:02
S1: Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our
24:06
S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. Before
24:11
S1: you go, follow Inside Politics and leave a review for
24:13
S1: us on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you
24:17
S1: for listening.