Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Surely Our Midterms Reality Can’t Be THIS Insane!

Transcript

Surely Our Midterms Reality Can’t Be THIS Insane! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  I have one very important question for you regarding next week's midterms.
• 0:04
  Uh,
• 0:04
  what the hell is going on?
• 0:06
  Like,
• 0:06
  is this blue wave thing actually happening?
• 0:08
  Is that what we're dealing with,
• 0:09
  or is this all fake news?
• 0:10
  I don't understand
• 0:12
  what the deal is.
• 0:13
  We're gonna try to reckon with the insanity of our current reality.
• 0:16
  And I also look back at the history of this because,
• 0:18
  uh,
• 0:18
  you know,
• 0:18
  is,
• 0:19
  is this realistic?
• 0:20
  Is,
• 0:20
  is what the Democrats are trying to do right now even possible?
• 0:24
  We'll get into that and so much more coming up on today's episode of Predictable
• 0:28
  with Stu.
• 0:43
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu,
• 0:44
  where we look at the news and elections
• 0:46
  and everything through the lens of prediction markets.
• 0:49
  Can we make you some money?
• 0:51
  I hope so.
• 0:51
  We've done pretty well so far this year.
• 0:53
  I want you to,
• 0:54
  uh,
• 0:54
  by the way,
• 0:54
  join us on YouTube,
• 0:56
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 0:58
  Something like 60.
• 0:58
  or 70% of the people who watch the show on a day to day basis
• 1:02
  aren't subscribers to the feed.
• 1:04
  And,
• 1:04
  you know,
• 1:04
  if you think about that,
• 1:06
  uh,
• 1:06
  I,
• 1:06
  it,
• 1:06
  it's,
• 1:07
  you should really change that because the best thing that you can do
• 1:11
  on a day to day basis is the types of things that are good for me.
• 1:15
  Uh,
• 1:15
  really,
• 1:15
  that should be the goal for you on a day to day
• 1:17
  basis is do things to help some stupid show that you watch
• 1:20
  on,
• 1:20
  uh,
• 1:21
  on TV.
• 1:21
  Uh,
• 1:22
  so please do that.
• 1:23
  Uh,
• 1:23
  if you don't take,
• 1:23
  if you wouldn't mind taking a moment,
• 1:24
  uh,
• 1:25
  subscribing,
• 1:25
  hitting the bell for notifications,
• 1:26
  we'd appreciate it.
• 1:27
  Um,
• 1:27
  we do have a big live stream happening on election night.
• 1:31
  We will be going for hours.
• 1:32
  And hours and hours and hours and hours until my voice gives out.
• 1:35
  So,
• 1:35
  uh,
• 1:36
  check us out on election night.
• 1:37
  You're gonna like that coverage.
• 1:38
  I do believe so.
• 1:40
  Um,
• 1:41
  we do have also Stu's picks.
• 1:43
  These are all my prediction market positions.
• 1:44
  They're up on predictableShow.com.
• 1:46
  People are really trying to get those right now,
• 1:48
  obviously,
• 1:48
  cause we're really close to the election.
• 1:50
  They're available for premium subscribers.
• 1:52
  We're gonna be updating them as we go,
• 1:54
  as I,
• 1:54
  whenever I add a new thing,
• 1:55
  I'm gonna try to get it updated right away so you have every,
• 1:58
  all the best information.
• 1:59
  Uh,
• 2:00
  to go off of
• 2:01
  if you would like.
• 2:01
  And one other thing I wanna tell you about is Senate Fantasy.com.
• 2:04
  You still have a chance to get in on this.
• 2:05
  We have over 500 teams now,
• 2:07
  uh,
• 2:07
  on,
• 2:08
  uh,
• 2:08
  Senate Fantasy.com.
• 2:10
  It's basically like a fantasy league for your Senate picks.
• 2:12
  So,
• 2:13
  you know,
• 2:13
  look,
• 2:13
  it's free to join.
• 2:14
  It's a lot of fun.
• 2:15
  It takes you a few minutes to get in,
• 2:16
  and you can win up to $2500.
• 2:19
  This is the leaderboard right now,
• 2:20
  uh,
• 2:21
  as we stand,
• 2:22
  uh,
• 2:22
  bring back the Redskins is number one.
• 2:24
  You can now like the team names too.
• 2:25
  There's a little heart next to it to like the team names,
• 2:27
  which is fun.
• 2:28
  Um,
• 2:28
  and the,
• 2:29
  uh,
• 2:30
  bring back the Riskins leading.
• 2:31
  Actually,
• 2:31
  go to the very last one,
• 2:33
  Adam,
• 2:33
  right now.
• 2:33
  Go to,
• 2:33
  go to the very last place
• 2:35
  all the way at the very bottom of this thing.
• 2:38
  If you keep scrolling and scrolling and scrolling,
• 2:40
  you'll pass my,
• 2:41
  you passed,
• 2:41
  passed mine a long time ago.
• 2:42
  I'm up near the top,
• 2:43
  of course.
• 2:44
  Uh,
• 2:44
  but if you keep going down towards the bottom,
• 2:46
  I'm actually,
• 2:46
  I'm doing all right.
• 2:47
  I'm doing all right.
• 2:48
  Right now,
• 2:48
  you guys,
• 2:48
  some of you guys are beating me.
• 2:49
  But if you go to the very,
• 2:50
  very end,
• 2:51
  uh,
• 2:52
  very last place you see a little red or yellow box there.
• 2:56
  Last place still wins $100.
• 2:59
  Yes,
• 2:59
  we've decided to implement this.
• 3:01
  If you finish in dead last,
• 3:03
  you will win $100.
• 3:05
  Just because I think it would be hard to finish in last place.
• 3:08
  There's 563 teams now.
• 3:10
  This is growing fast.
• 3:11
  Uh,
• 3:11
  we would love for you to get in
• 3:12
  Senate Fantasy.com,
• 3:13
  free to join,
• 3:14
  win thousands of dollars.
• 3:15
  OK.
• 3:18
  6 days
• 3:19
  until the midterm elections.
• 3:20
  6 freaking days
• 3:22
  until we're there.
• 3:23
  Until every,
• 3:24
  the votes are getting counted.
• 3:25
  We're ranting and raving on election night.
• 3:28
  Votes are coming in.
• 3:28
  We're trading furiously.
• 3:30
  We'll be doing that with you,
• 3:31
  uh,
• 3:31
  as we go through the night.
• 3:33
  I'll be trading
• 3:34
  live on the air with you because,
• 3:36
  look,
• 3:36
  my job is to host the show.
• 3:38
  My job is to talk to you about prediction markets,
• 3:40
  but it's also to trade.
• 3:41
  Uh,
• 3:41
  you know,
• 3:42
  it's something I do all the time.
• 3:43
  Um,
• 3:44
  so I'll be doing that with you and we'll be looking for those opportunities.
• 3:46
  I'm in the middle of building a great tool for you,
• 3:48
  uh,
• 3:48
  for election night,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:50
  and it's coming along really well,
• 3:51
  so I think you'll get a lot of use out of that.
• 3:52
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 3:53
  you're gonna wanna subscribe to PredictableShow.com.
• 3:55
  There's so many great tools
• 3:57
  if you're gonna be actually trading these election,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 4:00
  election results
• 4:00
  on election night.
• 4:02
  I saw a,
• 4:03
  you know,
• 4:03
  I do a bunch of reading in the morning,
• 4:04
  of course,
• 4:05
  you're going through all this stuff and the prep,
• 4:06
  and I saw this and it caught my eye,
• 4:08
  and I
• 4:09
  It just made me just think,
• 4:11
  I need to step back for a second.
• 4:12
  I need to think about this.
• 4:13
  I need to think about what we're looking at here,
• 4:15
  because what we're looking at here
• 4:16
  is gonna be historic
• 4:18
  if the numbers we're getting from the media,
• 4:20
  if the numbers we're getting from pollsters,
• 4:22
  if we're the numbers we're getting
• 4:23
  from uh election modelers are right.
• 4:26
  This is going to be a,
• 4:27
  an unbelievable election.
• 4:29
  We're in unbelievable territory right now,
• 4:31
  if what they're telling us is true.
• 4:33
  Is it?
• 4:34
  I don't know.
• 4:34
  Here's the,
• 4:35
  uh,
• 4:35
  here's what it says.
• 4:36
  The 7 races that will decide
• 4:38
  control of the Senate.
• 4:38
  This is from the Washington Post,
• 4:41
  and there's a couple of interesting charts in there.
• 4:43
  First,
• 4:43
  I just wanna show you this one for
• 4:45
  where people are,
• 4:45
  where the,
• 4:46
  where the money is being spent.
• 4:47
  This is,
• 4:48
  uh,
• 4:48
  in Ohio,
• 4:49
  we're talking almost $500 million.
• 4:51
  It's been spent in Ohio.
• 4:53
  Um,
• 4:54
  a little bit more by Republicans there.
• 4:56
  Same thing in Texas.
• 4:57
  When you factor in,
• 4:58
  uh,
• 4:58
  super PAC money and,
• 4:59
  and all that stuff,
• 5:01
  Texas,
• 5:01
  now more money spent.
• 5:02
  Now,
• 5:03
  there's an asterisk next to that because when you spend money with the super PAC,
• 5:05
  you get worse ad rates.
• 5:07
  So you actually don't get as many ads
• 5:09
  even if you're spending more money.
• 5:10
  That's just a
• 5:11
  technicality.
• 5:12
  Michigan is next,
• 5:13
  Iowa and Maine,
• 5:14
  and then less money is spent in Alaska and Kansas,
• 5:17
  not because they're not important.
• 5:18
  But because they're just media markets are totally a different story.
• 5:21
  And so,
• 5:21
  you know,
• 5:21
  I don't even know what would you,
• 5:22
  how would you even advertise in Alaska.
• 5:24
  I have no idea.
• 5:25
  I don't even know how that would work.
• 5:26
  It'd be very difficult to cover
• 5:27
  a giant,
• 5:28
  giant state like that with a bunch of small media markets,
• 5:30
  um.
• 5:32
  But this is,
• 5:33
  that's not the poll,
• 5:33
  that's not the chart that caught my attention in this article.
• 5:37
  Is this one.
• 5:39
  Polling shows
• 5:41
  major shift in Senate battlegrounds since 2024.
• 5:44
  Now,
• 5:44
  we're not going back to,
• 5:45
  you know,
• 5:46
  2016,
• 5:47
  Trump's first election.
• 5:47
  We're not going back to
• 5:49
  2020.
• 5:50
  We're going back to 2024.
• 5:51
  That's only two years ago.
• 5:53
  So two years ago,
• 5:55
  we look at the difference here between Donald Trump's margin in these states
• 5:59
  and uh the pre-election polling average of
• 6:02
  high quality polls since September 15th,
• 6:05
  so recent polling.
• 6:06
  I'm gonna start from the bottom here for a reason,
• 6:08
  because Maine is the one at the bottom here.
• 6:10
  Um,
• 6:11
  the,
• 6:12
  uh,
• 6:12
  and this has actually been an improvement for Republicans.
• 6:16
  Uh,
• 6:16
  Donald Trump lost in 2024
• 6:18
  by 7 points,
• 6:19
  and the polling right now shows Susan Collins behind by 2 points.
• 6:23
  So very close race,
• 6:24
  a toss-up race for sure,
• 6:26
  but a close race that currently favors Democrats slightly,
• 6:29
  but this has actually been an improvement for Republicans.
• 6:31
  They're,
• 6:31
  they're one good story on this board so far.
• 6:34
  Michigan was a very small win for Donald Trump,
• 6:38
  a 1 point victory,
• 6:39
  and now shows in recent polling a 4-point lead
• 6:42
  for Abdul El Sayed,
• 6:43
  even though he's a very weak candidate,
• 6:46
  uh,
• 6:46
  he's still leading in this environment
• 6:48
  by 4 points.
• 6:49
  So,
• 6:50
  those are the two close races,
• 6:51
  but I wanna focus on the other 5 that are on the board right now.
• 6:54
  5 races on the board.
• 6:56
  Each one of these
• 6:57
  are races that Donald Trump or states that Donald Trump won by double digits.
• 7:02
  That we're currently being told
• 7:05
  Democrats are gonna win this time.
• 7:06
  5 states,
• 7:07
  Ohio.
• 7:09
  Donald Trump won by 11.
• 7:10
  We're now told that
• 7:12
  John Husted is behind by 4 points in that race.
• 7:15
  In Iowa,
• 7:16
  Donald Trump won by 13.
• 7:18
  We're now told that Ashley Hinson is behind by 2.
• 7:21
  Now,
• 7:22
  frankly,
• 7:22
  uh,
• 7:22
  you know,
• 7:23
  this is their polling average,
• 7:24
  so I,
• 7:24
  I would say that I,
• 7:25
  I think Ashley Hinson's slightly up
• 7:27
  in this race.
• 7:28
  Um,
• 7:28
  that's what,
• 7:29
  uh,
• 7:29
  prediction markets say,
• 7:30
  that's what,
• 7:30
  um,
• 7:31
  I believe the PMC says the predictable midterm consensus.
• 7:34
  Kansas,
• 7:36
  a 16 point win by by Donald Trump.
• 7:38
  We're now told that Adam Hamilton leads
• 7:41
  Roger Marshall in that race by 1 point.
• 7:43
  In Texas,
• 7:44
  of course,
• 7:44
  famously,
• 7:45
  Donald Trump won by 14
• 7:47
  in 2024,
• 7:48
  just 2 years later,
• 7:50
  Ken Paxton trails by 3 in this polling average.
• 7:53
  And then finally,
• 7:54
  uh,
• 7:54
  Alaska,
• 7:54
  where Donald Trump won by 13 points,
• 7:57
  just two years later,
• 7:58
  we're told Mary Peltola
• 8:00
  leads Dan Sullivan by 5.
• 8:02
  So look at the polling movement on those five races,
• 8:04
  15 points.
• 8:06
  16 or 15 points again,
• 8:08
  17 points,
• 8:09
  17 points,
• 8:11
  and
• 8:11
  18 points.
• 8:13
  All of that movement
• 8:15
  in 2 years.
• 8:18
  Is that even possible?
• 8:20
  Are we really gonna see 5 races move by 1516,
• 8:24
  1718 points,
• 8:26
  really?
• 8:29
  Now you could say,
• 8:29
  like,
• 8:29
  and,
• 8:30
  and this is what happens all the time when I talk to people about this,
• 8:32
  oh,
• 8:32
  you can't believe the polls,
• 8:33
  oh,
• 8:34
  you can't believe the prediction markets,
• 8:35
  ah,
• 8:35
  you can't believe this,
• 8:36
  you can't believe that.
• 8:37
  And I,
• 8:38
  I don't take any of those things at their surface.
• 8:41
  I do believe that prediction markets are the best predictor that we have,
• 8:45
  the best tool that we have in this toolbox.
• 8:47
  But of course,
• 8:48
  I,
• 8:49
  they're not perfect,
• 8:50
  and I don't want them to be perfect because if they are perfect,
• 8:52
  I can't make any money off of them.
• 8:54
  I'm looking for places where they're wrong.
• 8:56
  In some of these races,
• 8:57
  they will be wrong.
• 8:58
  As I've mentioned before,
• 8:59
  I have a position on,
• 9:00
  for example,
• 9:01
  Ashley Hinson,
• 9:02
  uh,
• 9:02
  which is,
• 9:03
  you know,
• 9:03
  this,
• 9:03
  this particular graphic telling us that that is wrong,
• 9:05
  but
• 9:06
  Is this actually happening?
• 9:08
  Or is what we're seeing now from all of these different data points,
• 9:12
  even possible?
• 9:14
  I,
• 9:15
  I will tell you,
• 9:16
  the left is in.
• 9:19
  Having
• 9:20
  two different feelings.
• 9:20
  One is like crack-induced euphoria.
• 9:24
  I've heard Dave Landau,
• 9:25
  the guy that I,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:25
  I do a show with on Blaze TV,
• 9:28
  Stu and Dave do America.
• 9:29
  He's a comedian,
• 9:30
  went through a very,
• 9:30
  uh,
• 9:32
  tough time,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  as a,
• 9:33
  as a young,
• 9:34
  younger guy,
• 9:35
  um,
• 9:36
  and had a problem with drugs and alcohol,
• 9:39
  and has talked before,
• 9:40
  and I've heard him tell the story of the time he,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:43
  smoked a joint,
• 9:44
  uh,
• 9:45
  that he did not know was laced with crack.
• 9:48
  Now,
• 9:49
  I don't know the euphoria that crack brings,
• 9:51
  but he described it,
• 9:52
  and I've heard Hunter Biden describe it as well.
• 9:54
  Apparently,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:55
  quite the product,
• 9:57
  uh,
• 9:57
  you know,
• 9:57
  it has some downsides,
• 9:58
  you may know of,
• 9:59
  but
• 10:00
  apparently really makes you uh just
• 10:03
  over the moon for a very short period of time.
• 10:06
  Very euphoric feeling.
• 10:08
  That's essentially where all Democrats are.
• 10:11
  The people who are on the left have been spending months trying to convince
• 10:14
  you that this is going to be the biggest blowout of all time.
• 10:17
  Every single data point shows,
• 10:18
  you know,
• 10:18
  the early voting,
• 10:20
  uh,
• 10:20
  donations,
• 10:21
  uh,
• 10:22
  you know,
• 10:23
  everything telling you this is going to be not a blue wave,
• 10:25
  a blue tsunami,
• 10:26
  a blue mega tsunami.
• 10:29
  They are really highly invested in that,
• 10:31
  and they have that euphoric feeling,
• 10:33
  and they are
• 10:34
  so locked in to telling you that is exactly how this is gonna happen,
• 10:36
  and maybe it will.
• 10:37
  I don't know.
• 10:38
  I don't get locked into those things anymore.
• 10:40
  You know,
• 10:40
  I,
• 10:40
  of course,
• 10:40
  have what I root for,
• 10:41
  and we talk about this all the time,
• 10:42
  10th Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 10:45
  root for the world that you want.
• 10:47
  But invest in the world that you have.
• 10:50
  And you may see,
• 10:51
  if,
• 10:51
  if,
• 10:51
  if a blue wave is the way that I'm going to profit off of this election,
• 10:55
  I will be very disappointed at the end of
• 10:57
  it because my personal politics are much more conservative.
• 11:01
  But at the end of the day,
• 11:01
  I'm not gonna throw money down the tube rooting on a side that's going to lose.
• 11:05
  I will root for them,
• 11:06
  yes,
• 11:06
  but I will not invest
• 11:07
  in those contracts,
• 11:08
  and I have a bunch of contracts on Democrats,
• 11:10
  even though,
• 11:11
  uh,
• 11:11
  you know,
• 11:11
  they might not be my preferred outcome.
• 11:16
  So you have this sort of dichotomy on the left where they're very,
• 11:18
  very invested in this narrative that it's gonna be a blue mega tsunami,
• 11:22
  but at the same time they're terrified,
• 11:24
  because they've predicted this over and over and over and over again,
• 11:28
  and have been disappointed,
• 11:29
  crushed even,
• 11:30
  over and over and over and over again.
• 11:34
  This can't be a comfortable time if you're on the left.
• 11:37
  But the data does suggest that this sort of,
• 11:40
  you know,
• 11:40
  thing that we're talking about,
• 11:41
  5 races,
• 11:43
  double-digit Trump states,
• 11:44
  now going the opposite way just 2 years later,
• 11:47
  the data does suggest it's possible.
• 11:49
  But,
• 11:50
  Has it ever happened before?
• 11:52
  I was like,
• 11:53
  I can't remember
• 11:54
  anything like this happening
• 11:56
  before.
• 11:57
  So he went back and looked through it.
• 11:59
  Modern history,
• 11:59
  I'm not going back to,
• 12:00
  you know,
• 12:00
  1880,
• 12:02
  but I'm talking about,
• 12:02
  you know,
• 12:03
  since like Reagan,
• 12:04
  has this ever happened,
• 12:07
  where
• 12:07
  five states that had been won in the previous election
• 12:11
  by one party
• 12:13
  would then flip.
• 12:15
  To the other side after being won
• 12:18
  by the the president's side by 10 points or more.
• 12:22
  Has this
• 12:23
  ever occurred?
• 12:24
  I wanna go through the data with you here,
• 12:26
  just to show you how difficult this would be,
• 12:29
  if this is actually realistic.
• 12:31
  How many Senate seats could flip in states that the president won
• 12:35
  by 10 points or more.
• 12:38
  I had some ideas,
• 12:39
  like,
• 12:40
  you know,
• 12:40
  there's been some bad year,
• 12:41
  bad year for Republicans,
• 12:42
  2018.
• 12:43
  How many times did this happen in 2018?
• 12:46
  Uh,
• 12:47
  zero.
• 12:48
  It happened zero times in 2018.
• 12:50
  The only Senate pickup for the Democrats was in Nevada,
• 12:52
  where Clinton,
• 12:53
  not Trump,
• 12:54
  won in 2016.
• 12:55
  So,
• 12:56
  2018
• 12:57
  did not happen.
• 12:58
  Again,
• 12:58
  a terrible year.
• 13:00
  For Republicans,
• 13:01
  but nothing like what we're seeing here.
• 13:04
  How about 2014?
• 13:05
  Great year for Republicans,
• 13:06
  did really,
• 13:07
  really well.
• 13:07
  I think they picked up seven Senate seats in 2014.
• 13:10
  How many times though,
• 13:11
  did,
• 13:11
  did they flip a state
• 13:13
  that
• 13:13
  Barack Obama had won by 10 points or more?
• 13:16
  Total,
• 13:17
  0.
• 13:18
  It didn't happen once.
• 13:19
  They flipped 7 seats.
• 13:21
  But 0
• 13:23
  that hit all these criteria that now
• 13:26
  Democrats are depending on
• 13:27
  to take the Senate by these big numbers.
• 13:30
  Um,
• 13:31
  Democrat,
• 13:31
  uh,
• 13:32
  they fill up 7 Democratic held seats.
• 13:34
  None was a state Obama had won by 10 or more points in 2012.
• 13:37
  OK.
• 13:39
  How about 2006?
• 13:40
  This was a disaster,
• 13:41
  really a catastrophic year
• 13:43
  for um Republicans,
• 13:45
  you remember this,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:46
  George Bush wins re-election in 2004,
• 13:48
  becomes pretty unpopular pretty fast after that.
• 13:51
  Uh,
• 13:51
  we're in the time where they're talking about the surge going on,
• 13:54
  it's just not going well
• 13:55
  in 2006.
• 13:58
  But how many states did Democrats flip from Republicans?
• 14:02
  That Republicans had just won by 10 or more points.
• 14:05
  The answer there,
• 14:06
  1.
• 14:08
  That was Montana.
• 14:09
  Uh,
• 14:10
  Montana Democrat Jon Tester defeated Republican incumbent Conrad Burns.
• 14:14
  Bush had carried Montana by about 20 points in 2004.
• 14:17
  So,
• 14:17
  OK,
• 14:18
  it is possible,
• 14:18
  right?
• 14:19
  In a bad year,
• 14:20
  that was a catastrophic year,
• 14:22
  2006,
• 14:23
  for,
• 14:23
  in a bad year for Republicans,
• 14:24
  it is possible for them to lose one of these types of states.
• 14:27
  However,
• 14:28
  they,
• 14:28
  we're not talking about one,
• 14:30
  we're talking about five.
• 14:32
  Being projected to go this way.
• 14:33
  Has that ever happened?
• 14:36
  We go back a little bit farther.
• 14:38
  How about the biggest wave
• 14:40
  this century?
• 14:43
  Well,
• 14:43
  not this century,
• 14:44
  but in a century,
• 14:45
  which was at the time the Tea Party wave of 2010.
• 14:49
  How many states did Republicans flip
• 14:52
  from Democrats after they had won in 2008
• 14:55
  by more than 10 points?
• 14:56
  The answer there,
• 14:57
  3.
• 14:58
  It did happen three times.
• 15:00
  Illinois,
• 15:00
  Mark Kirk won the seat by,
• 15:02
  uh,
• 15:02
  uh,
• 15:02
  held by
• 15:03
  Democrat Roland Burris,
• 15:04
  that was a really weird election though,
• 15:06
  remember that one that was,
• 15:08
  um,
• 15:08
  the governor being thrown in prison,
• 15:11
  uh Burris being uh appointed there,
• 15:14
  um,
• 15:14
  he was trying to sell that appointment because that was Barack Obama had,
• 15:17
  had left,
• 15:18
  that whole thing.
• 15:18
  It
• 15:19
  was a disaster.
• 15:20
  Um,
• 15:20
  Roland,
• 15:21
  uh,
• 15:22
  Burris did not win.
• 15:23
  Mark Kirk did.
• 15:24
  Um,
• 15:25
  Pat Toomey,
• 15:26
  uh,
• 15:26
  beat Joe Sestak in,
• 15:28
  uh,
• 15:28
  in Pennsylvania that year,
• 15:29
  and Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold.
• 15:32
  That was a kind of a big upset at that time.
• 15:34
  Tea Party wave,
• 15:35
  huge election.
• 15:36
  Obama had won all three states by 10+ points.
• 15:38
  So it had 3 times.
• 15:39
  It is possible that it can happen,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:42
  3 times.
• 15:42
  Can it happen 5 times though?
• 15:44
  We had to go way back.
• 15:46
  We need to go way back.
• 15:47
  And we looked through all these midterms,
• 15:48
  had to go way back.
• 15:50
  We went back to 1986.
• 15:53
  1986,
• 15:54
  if you remember this context for a second.
• 15:57
  In 1986,
• 15:58
  Ronald Reagan has just won the biggest blowout election in US history,
• 16:03
  arguably,
• 16:04
  right?
• 16:04
  He wins 49 states.
• 16:07
  In that election.
• 16:08
  That gives the,
• 16:09
  um,
• 16:10
  uh,
• 16:10
  the Democrats a huge window of opportunity to pick off states like
• 16:14
  that Ronald Reagan had just won by 10 because he won tons of states by 10,
• 16:18
  tons of Democratic states by 10,
• 16:20
  um,
• 16:20
  and so that did happen
• 16:22
  in 1986,
• 16:23
  and in fact,
• 16:23
  it happened 7 times.
• 16:25
  So they were able to do 7 of these flips,
• 16:28
  uh,
• 16:28
  Alabama,
• 16:29
  Florida,
• 16:31
  uh,
• 16:31
  let's see,
• 16:32
  North Carolina,
• 16:34
  North Dakota.
• 16:35
  Nevada,
• 16:36
  that was Harry Reid winning,
• 16:38
  uh,
• 16:38
  South Dakota,
• 16:40
  and I think I got all of them in there.
• 16:42
  I may have missed one,
• 16:42
  but it was 7 of them overall.
• 16:44
  Reagan had carried all 7 by 10 points in 1984.
• 16:46
  And the only reason that this happened,
• 16:48
  and many of them were razor thin margins,
• 16:50
  was because Reagan had won 49 states.
• 16:52
  So basically,
• 16:53
  it was the opportunity of every state in the country.
• 16:55
  Um,
• 16:56
  he had way more chances to lose a state that he would normally win.
• 17:00
  But this is a totally dissimilar case
• 17:02
  to what we're dealing with now.
• 17:04
  Reagan had won 49 states.
• 17:05
  Donald Trump,
• 17:07
  um,
• 17:07
  had,
• 17:08
  he did sweep
• 17:09
  those,
• 17:10
  um,
• 17:11
  uh,
• 17:11
  swing states.
• 17:11
  If you remember,
• 17:12
  there's 7 swing states that people considered kind of swing states at that time.
• 17:15
  He won all 7 of them.
• 17:17
  He won
• 17:17
  all 7 of them,
• 17:19
  I believe all 7 of them by less than 10,
• 17:21
  and I don't think there was even one that was necessarily really close to 10 points,
• 17:24
  if I remember right.
• 17:25
  They were pretty close elections.
• 17:26
  He won,
• 17:27
  he did win all of them,
• 17:28
  but they were very,
• 17:29
  very tight,
• 17:29
  some of them by,
• 17:30
  you know,
• 17:30
  1 point or less.
• 17:31
  So,
• 17:32
  very,
• 17:32
  very tight states.
• 17:34
  It's totally unlike the Reagan wave,
• 17:37
  right?
• 17:37
  Reagan comes in,
• 17:38
  he wins 49 states.
• 17:39
  Almost every state in the union would qualify for this
• 17:41
  because he won almost every state by 10 points,
• 17:44
  and so there were 7.
• 17:45
  This is totally different.
• 17:47
  Let me bring up the Senate board and show you what this looks like,
• 17:49
  because
• 17:50
  But the Democrats are asking an awful
• 17:53
  lot here.
• 17:54
  Right now,
• 17:54
  if you,
• 17:54
  if you were to take these,
• 17:55
  uh,
• 17:56
  5 states,
• 17:57
  and you put them in the toss-up category,
• 17:59
  that's Alaska,
• 18:00
  Ohio,
• 18:00
  Iowa,
• 18:01
  Texas,
• 18:02
  and Kansas,
• 18:02
  all states that,
• 18:04
  that the Washington Post is referring to when they say
• 18:06
  there's gonna be a 10 point margin for Donald Trump,
• 18:08
  that's now going to go all the way back and go to
• 18:11
  the Democrats
• 18:12
  in a flip
• 18:13
  situation.
• 18:14
  Um,
• 18:15
  if you,
• 18:16
  if you put all those in the toss-up category,
• 18:19
  the Democrats are still pretty close.
• 18:20
  What is the,
• 18:21
  what do the numbers look like for this one?
• 18:22
  Uh,
• 18:23
  can we scroll up a little bit?
• 18:24
  So that's 49 Democrats.
• 18:26
  Let's just,
• 18:27
  now,
• 18:28
  they're gonna have to win
• 18:30
  2 of these 5
• 18:32
  to do this.
• 18:33
  Can they do that?
• 18:34
  I mean,
• 18:34
  yeah,
• 18:35
  it's possible.
• 18:36
  I mean,
• 18:36
  the best.
• 18:37
  The best
• 18:38
  argument for it is probably 2006.
• 18:41
  2006
• 18:43
  is a pretty similar,
• 18:44
  maybe you'd say 2010 is somewhat similar
• 18:46
  in a wave.
• 18:47
  2006 and 2010,
• 18:49
  they won an average of two seats.
• 18:50
  If the Democrats pick off two of those toss-up seats,
• 18:53
  give them,
• 18:53
  give them,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:54
  give them,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:56
  Alaska and Ohio,
• 18:57
  they're at the top of the list there,
• 18:58
  Adam.
• 18:58
  If you drag those over,
• 19:00
  you can do this,
• 19:00
  by the way,
• 19:00
  at predictableShow.com.
• 19:01
  It's a free category,
• 19:03
  um,
• 19:03
  a free,
• 19:04
  uh,
• 19:04
  thing.
• 19:04
  Give,
• 19:05
  give,
• 19:05
  uh,
• 19:05
  the,
• 19:05
  give two states to the Democrats here.
• 19:08
  They pick off two,
• 19:09
  Iowa and Texas,
• 19:09
  whatever,
• 19:10
  it doesn't matter.
• 19:10
  We're just kind of
• 19:11
  using these as a category,
• 19:12
  give Kansas to the Republicans.
• 19:14
  If all that goes that way,
• 19:15
  and they pick off two of these states
• 19:17
  that they lost by 10 points
• 19:19
  back in 2024,
• 19:21
  and now have moved to the Republican side,
• 19:24
  you get a 51-49 majority for the Democrats.
• 19:27
  They take the Senate.
• 19:28
  They're gonna have to win two of those five.
• 19:30
  That's
• 19:30
  if
• 19:31
  they win Michigan,
• 19:32
  which is a toss-up,
• 19:33
  and Maine,
• 19:33
  which is a toss-up.
• 19:35
  This is a hard thing to do.
• 19:38
  Now,
• 19:39
  what's,
• 19:39
  what I think people are losing sight of
• 19:41
  is we're already at blue wave territory because we're talking about these states.
• 19:47
  If these states are anywhere close
• 19:49
  to what we're talking about,
• 19:50
  if these,
• 19:51
  if the Republicans win all five of these states by 2 points,
• 19:55
  we're still in blue wave territory.
• 19:57
  You're talking about a situation where
• 19:58
  there are 230,
• 20:01
  235 seats maybe
• 20:03
  in the House
• 20:04
  that go towards Democrats.
• 20:05
  Um,
• 20:06
  these,
• 20:06
  like,
• 20:07
  the fact that these are close races already means this is a good year
• 20:10
  for Democrats.
• 20:12
  Maybe that will be wrong.
• 20:13
  Maybe Republicans will outperform and,
• 20:15
  and do much better and win these states by 10 points.
• 20:18
  I don't know.
• 20:19
  But
• 20:20
  Like,
• 20:20
  it's like when people talk to me about like,
• 20:22
  oh,
• 20:22
  do you think LeBron James or Michael Jordan is the greatest player of all time?
• 20:25
  And I say,
• 20:26
  look,
• 20:27
  uh,
• 20:27
  number 1,
• 20:28
  it's the dumbest question I've ever heard.
• 20:29
  Obviously,
• 20:29
  Michael Jordan is the better player.
• 20:31
  That being said,
• 20:32
  uh,
• 20:33
  LeBron James isn't the 2nd best player of all time either.
• 20:35
  And then people get really pissed off when I say that.
• 20:38
  And then I,
• 20:38
  when I start sliding him down the risk and list and making
• 20:40
  arguments that he's actually kind of further down than you might think,
• 20:43
  people get upset that LeBron people do.
• 20:45
  But what I'm saying there,
• 20:47
  It's not that LeBron James is the worst player of all time.
• 20:50
  I'm not saying he can't play basketball.
• 20:53
  What I'm saying is,
• 20:54
  is he,
• 20:55
  you know,
• 20:55
  in the top 2 or 3,
• 20:57
  or is he maybe down towards the bottom of the top 10?
• 21:00
  Regardless of what I'm saying is I'm saying
• 21:02
  LeBron James is an excellent basketball player,
• 21:05
  uh,
• 21:05
  with incredible historic context,
• 21:08
  right?
• 21:09
  But people get very upset.
• 21:11
  When I talk to Democrats and I say,
• 21:12
  well,
• 21:13
  maybe they're not gonna be able to flip 5 races that they won the state
• 21:16
  by double digits last time or they lost the state by double digits in 2,
• 21:20
  just 2 years ago.
• 21:21
  That's not saying they're not gonna have a good year.
• 21:24
  I mean,
• 21:24
  I think right now the data does point me to
• 21:26
  believe that the Democrats will have a good year.
• 21:28
  It does point me to believe that the Democrats will win the House.
• 21:31
  It does point me to believe that
• 21:32
  the Democrats will likely get to 49 seats,
• 21:36
  probably for sure.
• 21:38
  Very close to for sure.
• 21:40
  But that does not mean
• 21:41
  that they're gonna be able to flip 5 states that they had double digit leads in.
• 21:46
  They may do it,
• 21:47
  we will see.
• 21:48
  Let me show you what these markets look for
• 21:50
  and tell you what the prediction markets say,
• 21:51
  and you can see if there's opportunities here.
• 21:53
  Let's start with Texas.
• 21:54
  It's the highest profile race.
• 21:56
  Everybody's talking about it all the time.
• 21:58
  James Tallarico is a 2 to 1 favorite in this race.
• 22:01
  Now,
• 22:01
  the polling does not describe him as a 2 to 1 favorite.
• 22:05
  Uh,
• 22:05
  the margin,
• 22:06
  as Calci projects here,
• 22:08
  is a 2.3 point lead.
• 22:10
  If that's off by obviously a couple points,
• 22:12
  a couple people changing their mind,
• 22:14
  more Republicans coming out.
• 22:16
  Then,
• 22:16
  uh,
• 22:17
  you're gonna see Tallarico lose.
• 22:19
  This is,
• 22:19
  you could take 33 cents,
• 22:21
  invest it in Ken Paxson,
• 22:22
  and turn it into a dollar,
• 22:24
  giving you a very nice percentage gain
• 22:27
  in less than a week.
• 22:29
  You might not believe Paxson's gonna hold off there.
• 22:31
  The,
• 22:31
  the early voting does not look good,
• 22:33
  and I am very concerned on that race.
• 22:35
  I,
• 22:35
  I,
• 22:35
  you know,
• 22:35
  as someone who would,
• 22:36
  would rather have Paxton as my senator,
• 22:38
  I live in Texas.
• 22:40
  I would,
• 22:40
  um,
• 22:41
  the Hispanic vote is probably
• 22:44
  going to be enough to either make that razor,
• 22:46
  razor thin margin
• 22:47
  on the Paxson side or
• 22:49
  probably make,
• 22:50
  uh,
• 22:50
  Tallarico win.
• 22:51
  I don't think necessarily it's the same in the governor's race.
• 22:53
  Let's go to Ohio,
• 22:54
  next race on this list.
• 22:55
  Ohio.
• 22:56
  Again,
• 22:57
  Sherrod Brown with a massive lead over John Husted.
• 23:00
  The polling again,
• 23:01
  you see the Democratic projected margin of a 3 point victory.
• 23:04
  Most polling is showing this race very,
• 23:06
  very close.
• 23:07
  I believe a poll came out today by Echelon,
• 23:09
  I think it was,
• 23:09
  that had this race tied.
• 23:11
  Uh,
• 23:11
  this is a very close race.
• 23:13
  Again,
• 23:13
  if you believe in the Republican here,
• 23:16
  big time opportunities on prediction markets right now,
• 23:18
  and honestly,
• 23:19
  a solid return even if you believe in Sherrod Brown.
• 23:21
  Um,
• 23:22
  you know,
• 23:22
  that's,
• 23:23
  you're talking about a 50% gain in less than a week.
• 23:25
  Iowa,
• 23:26
  razor thin in the margins here.
• 23:29
  Right now,
• 23:30
  Ashley Hinson is a 1.1%
• 23:33
  margin.
• 23:34
  Uh,
• 23:34
  she's still the slight favorite in the prediction markets,
• 23:36
  54%.
• 23:38
  Massive,
• 23:39
  uh,
• 23:39
  possibilities for you and,
• 23:41
  and percentage gains if you have a,
• 23:42
  a take on that particular market.
• 23:44
  Let's look at Kansas,
• 23:45
  another razor thin race.
• 23:47
  Right now,
• 23:47
  the projected margin is Republican Roger Marshall with it by a 1.6%.
• 23:51
  0% margin.
• 23:52
  He's a 60/40 favorite in this race.
• 23:56
  But if you believe in Hamilton,
• 23:57
  tons of money to be made.
• 23:58
  If you want to hedge your life on Hamilton,
• 24:00
  tons of money to be made.
• 24:01
  But also Roger Marshall,
• 24:03
  uh,
• 24:03
  you know,
• 24:03
  you're talking about a 67% return in less than a week.
• 24:06
  Where else are you getting that in the stock market?
• 24:07
  Probably not happening.
• 24:09
  Alaska,
• 24:09
  Mary Peltola is the heavy favorite there.
• 24:11
  Um,
• 24:12
  this is the race,
• 24:12
  by the way,
• 24:13
  where the biggest
• 24:14
  Disagreement between prediction markets and polling averages.
• 24:18
  71% for Mary Peltola,
• 24:20
  only a 20,
• 24:20
  uh,
• 24:20
  30% chance for Dan Sullivan
• 24:23
  to win
• 24:23
  the other Dan Sullivan
• 24:25
  far down the list.
• 24:26
  Uh,
• 24:26
  Maine,
• 24:26
  the other two races I just want to highlight quickly before we go to break.
• 24:29
  Maine is,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:31
  uh,
• 24:32
  of course,
• 24:32
  Susan Collins
• 24:33
  against Troy Jackson.
• 24:34
  Collins in the high thirties,
• 24:37
  you know,
• 24:37
  again,
• 24:37
  I think this is a total toss-up.
• 24:39
  Jackson with a slight polling lead,
• 24:40
  1.9%.
• 24:42
  And then finally,
• 24:43
  uh,
• 24:43
  Michigan Senate
• 24:44
  is,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:45
  the Abdul El Sayed show
• 24:47
  going up against Mike Rogers.
• 24:49
  He is a 2.5% margin forecast,
• 24:52
  uh,
• 24:52
  say the prediction markets,
• 24:54
  but Abdul El Sayyed at a 6931
• 24:57
  favorite.
• 24:58
  There is,
• 24:59
  and look,
• 24:59
  people tell me all the time,
• 25:00
  oh,
• 25:00
  you don't believe this.
• 25:01
  I don't believe that.
• 25:02
  You know,
• 25:02
  look,
• 25:03
  I get that.
• 25:05
  A great opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.
• 25:07
  You don't have to yell at me at Twitter.
• 25:08
  I,
• 25:08
  you know,
• 25:09
  my opinions might be wrong,
• 25:10
  they might be right.
• 25:11
  But
• 25:12
  take advantage of that.
• 25:13
  If you think I'm an idiot,
• 25:14
  uh,
• 25:14
  go on these prediction markets,
• 25:15
  you can make money.
• 25:16
  If you believe that the media is lying to you.
• 25:18
  You got an opportunity to,
• 25:19
  to put your money where your mouth is and,
• 25:21
  uh,
• 25:21
  profit.
• 25:22
  Buy yourself a fancy dinner.
• 25:24
  Buy,
• 25:24
  take your family out
• 25:25
  to a nice evening,
• 25:26
  go on a nice vacation.
• 25:27
  You,
• 25:28
  you can choose
• 25:29
  how much you win or lose
• 25:31
  in prediction markets,
• 25:32
  but if you're,
• 25:32
  if you're
• 25:33
  confident in your opinion,
• 25:34
  There's great opportunities for you.
• 25:36
  Look at these races.
• 25:37
  People tell me they're,
• 25:37
  they're sure what's gonna happen on this stuff all the time,
• 25:39
  but
• 25:40
  I don't see them in prediction markets often.
• 25:42
  If you believe in it,
• 25:43
  take an opportunity to go in there and,
• 25:45
  and,
• 25:45
  and profit,
• 25:46
  because if you're right,
• 25:47
  you can do very,
• 25:47
  very well
• 25:48
  here with only 6 days.
• 25:50
  Waiting until this election.
• 25:51
  PredictableShow.com is a great place for you to go.
• 25:53
  If you think,
• 25:54
  uh,
• 25:54
  this analysis is helpful,
• 25:56
  we've got great tools for you to analyze these elections,
• 25:58
  and we have tons of people who are signing up.
• 26:00
  Right now,
• 26:01
  obviously,
• 26:01
  we're getting very close to the election,
• 26:02
  so people are jumping on the bandwagon and,
• 26:04
  and getting involved,
• 26:04
  and I hope you do that.
• 26:06
  Uh,
• 26:06
  because I do think it will help your performance
• 26:09
  here if you're getting into these markets,
• 26:10
  or if you just wanna have a deeper dive
• 26:12
  into what the data really says.
• 26:14
  We've got some great tools for you to,
• 26:15
  to use on the premium side.
• 26:17
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go.
• 26:19
  Predictableshow.com.
• 26:38
  The predictable midterm consensus is an election model that I built,
• 26:42
  um,
• 26:42
  recently for this year,
• 26:44
  um,
• 26:44
  very thorough,
• 26:45
  very updated,
• 26:46
  and it takes into account a lot of different things,
• 26:48
  everything from polling averages to,
• 26:50
  uh,
• 26:50
  fundraising to,
• 26:51
  I don't know,
• 26:52
  there's not really much early vote in there.
• 26:55
  Um,
• 26:55
  I'm kind of
• 26:56
  a little bit of a skeptic on the early vote and how much that tells us.
• 27:00
  Though as more and more
• 27:02
  vote becomes early,
• 27:03
  it probably tells us more than it used to.
• 27:05
  Um,
• 27:05
  but we have all that in there,
• 27:06
  plus,
• 27:07
  um,
• 27:07
  you know,
• 27:07
  uh,
• 27:08
  full-blown election models are in there and,
• 27:10
  uh,
• 27:11
  expert opinion.
• 27:13
  And I bring that up because there's 3 main expert opinion
• 27:16
  ratings agencies,
• 27:17
  if you will.
• 27:18
  Cook Political is one of them.
• 27:19
  I can't think of the name of the second one,
• 27:21
  but the third one is Sabato's Crystal Ball.
• 27:23
  And what they do is they,
• 27:24
  they kind of do what we just did with the Senate board.
• 27:26
  They've got,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:27
  likely Democrat,
• 27:28
  likely Republican,
• 27:29
  lean Republican,
• 27:30
  lean Democrat,
• 27:31
  toss up,
• 27:31
  all the different categories,
• 27:32
  solid Republican,
• 27:33
  solid Democrat,
• 27:34
  and they move them around when they feel that the
• 27:38
  information diet that they have consumed on this.
• 27:42
  I uh appropriate to move them to a different category.
• 27:46
  Um,
• 27:47
  and I say that
• 27:48
  because it's not,
• 27:48
  they're not just looking at public polls,
• 27:49
  they're not just looking at fundamentals.
• 27:51
  They're also getting access to a lot of private polling,
• 27:54
  a lot of campaign polling behind the scenes,
• 27:56
  so they have more information a lot of times than you and I do.
• 28:00
  Uh,
• 28:00
  they are moving 16 House races toward Democrats,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:04
  today.
• 28:05
  This has been pretty consistent.
• 28:07
  They will leave stuff in the toss-up column a little bit longer.
• 28:10
  Than,
• 28:12
  uh,
• 28:12
  you know,
• 28:12
  some of the election modelers out there.
• 28:14
  So these aren't racists necessarily that were
• 28:16
  racists thought of like to be Republicans and now we're suddenly,
• 28:19
  um,
• 28:19
  uh,
• 28:20
  Democrats,
• 28:20
  uh,
• 28:21
  but they are the movement has been really consistent as they've done this over,
• 28:25
  uh,
• 28:25
  several different,
• 28:26
  uh,
• 28:26
  ratings agencies.
• 28:28
  Uh,
• 28:28
  that is,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  a couple of these that moved were,
• 28:31
  um,
• 28:33
  3 Senate races,
• 28:34
  2 gubernatorial races.
• 28:35
  Let me give you those because,
• 28:36
  you know,
• 28:36
  the Senate races or the House races are there's 2.
• 28:39
  Uh,
• 28:40
  too,
• 28:40
  too many to name,
• 28:41
  but
• 28:41
  Florida Senate race moved from safe Republican to likely Republican,
• 28:44
  so
• 28:45
  that's the Ashley Moody race.
• 28:46
  It kind of ticked a little bit
• 28:48
  toward Democrats,
• 28:48
  but still likely Republican.
• 28:50
  Darlene Graham went from likely Republican
• 28:53
  to lean Republican.
• 28:54
  I've been telling you,
• 28:55
  I've worried about that race for a while.
• 28:58
  Not necessarily that she's gonna lose it,
• 29:00
  but I'm very concerned that that it's gonna be very close.
• 29:03
  There's just no
• 29:04
  connection with Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 29:06
  She's new on the scene.
• 29:07
  She has not been,
• 29:08
  I would say,
• 29:09
  impressive in her public appearances,
• 29:11
  and it's really like,
• 29:12
  OK,
• 29:13
  it's just
• 29:13
  party name.
• 29:14
  And I keep going back to this.
• 29:15
  Like if I'm a Republican right now in one of these states,
• 29:18
  all I'm talking about is control of the Senate.
• 29:19
  I'm not talking about anything I'm gonna pass.
• 29:21
  I'm not talking about anything.
• 29:22
  All I'm trying to do is,
• 29:23
  is scare Republican voters and be like,
• 29:25
  you want Chuck Schumer on TV telling you what's going on every day?
• 29:28
  Is that what you want?
• 29:29
  Cause you can have that,
• 29:30
  you might not like Darlene Graham Nordone,
• 29:32
  you might not like Roger Marshall,
• 29:33
  you might not like Ashley Hinson,
• 29:35
  but regardless,
• 29:37
  do you like Chuck Schumer?
• 29:39
  And some of these races are going that direction
• 29:41
  because it's all about control in those races.
• 29:43
  Um.
• 29:45
  North Carolina went from,
• 29:47
  uh,
• 29:47
  lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
• 29:49
  Again,
• 29:50
  that's a move that I had made months ago.
• 29:52
  I mean,
• 29:52
  I,
• 29:52
  that's really just,
• 29:53
  just not one of those things.
• 29:54
  Um,
• 29:55
  and then,
• 29:55
  um,
• 29:56
  uh,
• 29:56
  a couple of,
• 29:57
  uh,
• 29:57
  gubernatorial races as well.
• 29:59
  Katie Hobbs goes from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
• 30:03
  One,
• 30:04
  another one that's been under the radar,
• 30:06
  and I have a small position against this,
• 30:08
  I kind of guarding against a real blue,
• 30:10
  uh,
• 30:10
  tsunami or whatever,
• 30:11
  but in Vermont,
• 30:12
  Phil Scott.
• 30:13
  Uh,
• 30:14
  Republican,
• 30:15
  and you didn't know that it's a Republican governor of Vermont,
• 30:17
  moderate guy,
• 30:18
  been there for a long time,
• 30:19
  very,
• 30:19
  very popular,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:21
  in the state and usually wins easily.
• 30:23
  That race looks closer.
• 30:24
  I still think he probably holds on to it,
• 30:25
  but it looks closer than,
• 30:27
  uh,
• 30:27
  believed.
• 30:28
  That went from likely,
• 30:29
  uh,
• 30:29
  uh,
• 30:30
  Republican to lean Republican,
• 30:32
  and I think that's pretty much it.
• 30:33
  OK,
• 30:33
  so I named all that.
• 30:34
  Um,
• 30:35
  another,
• 30:35
  uh,
• 30:36
  another situation.
• 30:38
  Is a poll from Sienna,
• 30:41
  one of the highly,
• 30:41
  higher rated pollsters.
• 30:43
  They do work with The New York Times.
• 30:44
  Again,
• 30:45
  they've been kind of all over the map over the past couple of polls,
• 30:47
  um,
• 30:48
  and they,
• 30:50
  they,
• 30:50
  their,
• 30:51
  their process is usually pretty good.
• 30:53
  Sometimes those results are all over the place,
• 30:54
  and they,
• 30:54
  I think that we have maybe the biggest outlier
• 30:57
  poll that I've seen in this entire cycle,
• 31:00
  uh,
• 31:00
  in this particular batch.
• 31:01
  Uh,
• 31:02
  what our new Senate poll tells us about the state of the midterms,
• 31:05
  3 races.
• 31:06
  One is that South Carolina race that I've been talking about forever.
• 31:09
  I've reduced my position probably by 70% in that race
• 31:13
  because I think it's very unsure at this point.
• 31:15
  And,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:15
  it is a tie between Annie Andrews and,
• 31:18
  uh,
• 31:18
  Darlene Graham Nordone.
• 31:20
  Now,
• 31:20
  I
• 31:20
  don't,
• 31:21
  I've never believed the South Carolina polls before.
• 31:24
  I don't necessarily believe Graham's going to lose here,
• 31:27
  but
• 31:27
  it's too close for comfort,
• 31:29
  and I don't want anything like that.
• 31:30
  I don't wanna get out of that stuff.
• 31:31
  So I,
• 31:31
  most of that stuff I,
• 31:32
  I'm,
• 31:33
  uh,
• 31:33
  out of already.
• 31:34
  Uh,
• 31:34
  Florida,
• 31:35
  uh,
• 31:35
  Ashley Moody holding a significant lead,
• 31:37
  50 to 44 in that race.
• 31:39
  This,
• 31:39
  the outlier though is Minnesota.
• 31:41
  Now,
• 31:42
  Michelle Tafoya has been incredibly
• 31:44
  competitive in the polling there.
• 31:47
  She's running as kind of like a moderate,
• 31:49
  and she even says over and over again,
• 31:50
  a pro-choice Republican
• 31:52
  in Minnesota.
• 31:53
  I don't know,
• 31:53
  maybe that's what you have to,
• 31:55
  you have to be to win in Minnesota these days.
• 31:56
  I don't know.
• 31:57
  Of course,
• 31:58
  you know,
• 31:58
  that's not my,
• 31:59
  not my position,
• 32:00
  um,
• 32:00
  but she is a very good communicator.
• 32:02
  Um,
• 32:03
  she's good on television,
• 32:04
  she's good in interviews,
• 32:06
  and,
• 32:06
  uh,
• 32:07
  and Peggy Flanagan is really weird looking.
• 32:10
  Uh,
• 32:10
  she's,
• 32:11
  I mean,
• 32:11
  I just mean,
• 32:12
  I don't mean that from her face or anything.
• 32:13
  She's just a strange dresser.
• 32:15
  Her sense of style is odd.
• 32:17
  She's an oddball in that way,
• 32:18
  and her presentation's a little bit oddball.
• 32:20
  She's very,
• 32:21
  very progressive.
• 32:21
  She's kind of like an Abdul El Sayed.
• 32:24
  And that she's uh basically a socialist.
• 32:26
  Um,
• 32:27
  and Minnesota is a purple state that leans blue,
• 32:30
  but not necessarily a,
• 32:32
  a,
• 32:32
  a blue state that you would see embracing a,
• 32:35
  a DSA member.
• 32:36
  Um,
• 32:37
  that's essentially what Peggy Flanagan is.
• 32:38
  So,
• 32:39
  that race has been very,
• 32:40
  very tight.
• 32:40
  Can you bring up that last graphic one more time?
• 32:42
  Look at where they have it now.
• 32:43
  This is a,
• 32:44
  uh,
• 32:44
  a race where,
• 32:45
  um,
• 32:46
  you're saying,
• 32:46
  uh,
• 32:47
  54 to 40,
• 32:48
  a 14-point lead.
• 32:50
  There has been no other polling that has shown
• 32:53
  anything like this in this race.
• 32:55
  And,
• 32:55
  and by the way,
• 32:55
  you know,
• 32:56
  I'll give,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:56
  New York Times,
• 32:57
  uh,
• 32:57
  some credit on this.
• 32:58
  In their write-up about it,
• 32:59
  they acknowledge this.
• 33:00
  They say,
• 33:01
  we are way out of the mainstream on this one.
• 33:04
  What you want from a pollster is someone that when they come up with those results,
• 33:08
  to still publish them.
• 33:10
  If you have an outlier and you're saying,
• 33:12
  gosh,
• 33:12
  this is really,
• 33:12
  really weird,
• 33:13
  it does not line up,
• 33:14
  you don't want them changing their results so they're not embarrassed.
• 33:17
  You want them telling the story of their data.
• 33:18
  So I give them credit for releasing this,
• 33:20
  even though it might be a very embarrassing result
• 33:22
  at the end.
• 33:23
  But who knows,
• 33:23
  maybe they picked up on something.
• 33:25
  I mean,
• 33:25
  if you,
• 33:26
  if I would have told you in this environment,
• 33:28
  A replacement level Democratic against a replacement level Republican.
• 33:32
  A 10 to 14,
• 33:33
  maybe even 14 point victory would not surprise me,
• 33:37
  because we are in a Democratic,
• 33:38
  a blue leaning environment.
• 33:40
  It's just that this race has held out
• 33:42
  from that the entire time.
• 33:44
  The two places we've seen where in races that
• 33:47
  you would just think you could just tick off
• 33:50
  knowing who's gonna win immediately was this race,
• 33:52
  because a blue state,
• 33:53
  uh,
• 33:54
  you know,
• 33:54
  bluish leaning purple state,
• 33:56
  and a,
• 33:56
  uh,
• 33:57
  uh,
• 33:57
  um,
• 33:57
  and in this environment,
• 33:58
  you'd say Democrats winning that race easily.
• 34:00
  It's one of the reasons why I have a decent position
• 34:02
  on Amy Klobuchar to win that gubernatorial race
• 34:05
  relatively easily,
• 34:06
  even though the polling's hung somewhat close.
• 34:09
  I just think that's the way that's gonna go,
• 34:11
  um,
• 34:12
  and I also have a position on Tina Kotak in Oregon,
• 34:15
  which has been the other one that has not moved the direction
• 34:19
  that I would have assumed,
• 34:20
  honestly,
• 34:20
  uh,
• 34:21
  those two races.
• 34:21
  Part of that is explained by something that we released
• 34:24
  a few weeks ago called the Republican Freak Out Index,
• 34:27
  and
• 34:28
  what that basically tells you is where have
• 34:31
  the,
• 34:32
  uh,
• 34:32
  underlying
• 34:35
  forces that are moving this election.
• 34:38
  Where are they move,
• 34:39
  like where are they affecting,
• 34:41
  um,
• 34:41
  uh,
• 34:42
  voters most?
• 34:44
  What we see is in places like Texas,
• 34:46
  like Michigan,
• 34:47
  the negative,
• 34:49
  uh,
• 34:49
  effects for Republicans,
• 34:50
  and we're talking about,
• 34:51
  um,
• 34:51
  uh,
• 34:52
  oil,
• 34:52
  gas prices,
• 34:53
  diesel prices,
• 34:54
  uh,
• 34:55
  effects of tariffs,
• 34:57
  um,
• 34:57
  and then other demographic features like,
• 34:59
  um,
• 35:00
  fewer older voters,
• 35:01
  more younger voters,
• 35:03
  uh,
• 35:03
  more Hispanic voters,
• 35:04
  where are those hitting most?
• 35:05
  Number 1 on the list was Texas for the biggest impact.
• 35:08
  Number 2 was Michigan.
• 35:09
  Iowa was near the top.
• 35:11
  Near the bottom though was Minnesota and Oregon.
• 35:13
  Like they just haven't been hit by these factors as much as,
• 35:15
  as some of these other states,
• 35:16
  so they're not as angry
• 35:18
  as you might think against Republicans generally.
• 35:20
  Uh,
• 35:20
  here's what these markets look like right now,
• 35:22
  by the way,
• 35:22
  Ashley Moody.
• 35:23
  Um,
• 35:24
  her 6 point lead,
• 35:25
  uh,
• 35:25
  keeping her pretty consistent,
• 35:26
  around an 89% favorite.
• 35:28
  Florida was also pretty low on the Republican freak out index,
• 35:31
  and it's one of the reasons why I have a big position on Moody
• 35:34
  and a building position on Donald's.
• 35:36
  He's a,
• 35:36
  Donald's is the governor,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  gubernatorial candidate there.
• 35:39
  Moody got,
• 35:40
  not only is she a strong candidate,
• 35:41
  she drew a weak candidate in Nixon.
• 35:44
  So she's more of a heavy favorite.
• 35:46
  Donald's is around an 80,
• 35:47
  75,
• 35:48
  80% favorite in this race,
• 35:50
  um,
• 35:50
  against,
• 35:51
  uh,
• 35:52
  Jolly,
• 35:52
  who is more of a,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:54
  you know,
• 35:54
  supposedly a moderate Democrat.
• 35:56
  We've seen that pitch before.
• 35:57
  In South Carolina,
• 35:58
  this is narrowing in a significant way.
• 36:00
  I mean,
• 36:01
  if you would have told me,
• 36:03
  you know,
• 36:03
  6 months ago that I could have gotten a gram.
• 36:06
  At 71% in South Carolina,
• 36:08
  I would have been loading up on shares.
• 36:10
  It's a different Graham.
• 36:11
  The first Graham,
• 36:12
  uh,
• 36:12
  no longer with us.
• 36:14
  The second Graham,
• 36:15
  not all that impressive of a candidate.
• 36:17
  And Annie Andrews,
• 36:18
  I don't think she's a great candidate either,
• 36:21
  but she is rising in the polls up to a 29% chance to win that race.
• 36:25
  And finally,
• 36:25
  Minnesota,
• 36:26
  um,
• 36:26
  you know,
• 36:27
  this has been one of the favorite picks of Republicans who were like,
• 36:29
  hey,
• 36:29
  well maybe we're gonna have a better year than you think.
• 36:31
  If you,
• 36:32
  you know,
• 36:32
  this,
• 36:32
  I see this in the Senate Fantasy League a lot,
• 36:33
  a lot of people picking this race because
• 36:35
  you can get all shares on Michelle Tafoya very cheaply,
• 36:38
  and she's very competitive in these polls with the exception of this last one.
• 36:41
  Here's what that last one looks like.
• 36:43
  Uh,
• 36:43
  Michelle Tafoya,
• 36:44
  after that poll released,
• 36:45
  dropping from about
• 36:47
  14,
• 36:47
  15% chance to win down to 10%.
• 36:50
  So you can get her at,
• 36:51
  you know,
• 36:52
  you're talking about 9 to 1%
• 36:53
  profit.
• 36:54
  Right now,
• 36:54
  if you think Tafoya has a chance,
• 36:56
  the projections from Calci are about 7.6 points
• 36:59
  victory,
• 37:00
  a 7.6 point victory for,
• 37:02
  um,
• 37:03
  uh,
• 37:03
  for Flanagan.
• 37:04
  But again,
• 37:05
  polling generally speaking has not shown that.
• 37:08
  Perhaps the Sienna poll is right,
• 37:10
  but that is a big departure from what we've seen so far.
• 37:12
  OK,
• 37:13
  gotta take it,
• 37:14
  I look,
• 37:14
  I've been,
• 37:14
  I,
• 37:14
  I've been talking about the guys behind the scene.
• 37:16
  We have all these different things that we're gonna be doing,
• 37:17
  tons of stuff that is not election related once the election's over.
• 37:21
  My thought process though is to just be like,
• 37:23
  look,
• 37:24
  it's election time.
• 37:25
  Let's
• 37:26
  double and triple down on all the information we're giving people.
• 37:28
  This is what people care about
• 37:30
  right now for the next few days.
• 37:31
  We're gonna overload you with election stuff until the election's over,
• 37:35
  and then we're gonna start transitioning to tons of other
• 37:37
  really fun stuff that you can do on prediction markets.
• 37:39
  Everything from,
• 37:40
  you know,
• 37:40
  Supreme Court decisions.
• 37:41
  To,
• 37:41
  uh,
• 37:42
  culture markets,
• 37:43
  uh,
• 37:43
  sports markets,
• 37:44
  and so many other things.
• 37:45
  We'll get to more of those after the election.
• 37:47
  I do have one though that I wanna
• 37:49
  kind of wet your whistle with a little bit
• 37:51
  here,
• 37:51
  uh,
• 37:51
  on,
• 37:52
  um,
• 37:53
  uh,
• 37:53
  in the culture world.
• 37:54
  This actually comes from my producer who's a nerd,
• 37:57
  um,
• 37:57
  and he's going to
• 37:59
  tell you what his nerdy opinion is on an upcoming,
• 38:02
  uh,
• 38:02
  movie,
• 38:02
  which there might be an opportunity for you
• 38:04
  to make a little money on investment markets
• 38:06
  and predictions.
• 38:07
  So we'll get to that coming up next.
• 38:24
  You know,
• 38:25
  it's time,
• 38:27
  it's time for another episode of here's one my producer kinda likes,
• 38:30
  a segment where I,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:32
  go through,
• 38:32
  uh,
• 38:33
  something that my producer has pitched me because
• 38:35
  this is one of the great things about prediction markets as an investment.
• 38:39
  Um,
• 38:39
  you,
• 38:40
  it's funny because like,
• 38:42
  You don't need to be a great trader to do well on prediction markets.
• 38:45
  You just need to have like a real deep interest in something,
• 38:48
  something weird,
• 38:49
  something unique to yourself.
• 38:51
  And like I,
• 38:52
  uh,
• 38:52
  you know,
• 38:53
  I love sports.
• 38:53
  I follow that closely.
• 38:54
  I,
• 38:54
  I follow elections closely,
• 38:56
  obviously.
• 38:56
  There's a bunch of that stuff that I do,
• 38:58
  and then I have some weird stuff that I,
• 38:59
  that I'm interested in as well.
• 39:01
  Uh,
• 39:01
  but it's a there's no crossover,
• 39:03
  uh,
• 39:04
  as to what I have and what Adam has,
• 39:06
  which is this really nerdy pop culture stuff.
• 39:10
  A lot of times I'm not even aware that it's occurring,
• 39:12
  including
• 39:12
  the movie Whale Fall
• 39:14
  about a guy who is ingested inside of a whale.
• 39:16
  He gave us a segment on that,
• 39:17
  but which,
• 39:18
  by the way,
• 39:18
  hit.
• 39:19
  He was,
• 39:19
  we won,
• 39:20
  if you,
• 39:20
  you,
• 39:21
  you made some money off of that one last time and I'm like,
• 39:23
  well,
• 39:23
  keep bringing these to me because I wanna know them.
• 39:25
  So,
• 39:25
  I,
• 39:26
  this is his pitch and I love it.
• 39:28
  Godzilla 0,
• 39:30
  director Takashi Yamazaki
• 39:33
  credits James Cameron's Aliens and Terminator 2 for inspiring beefed up sequel.
• 39:37
  Now,
• 39:41
  Look,
• 39:41
  I got,
• 39:41
  I,
• 39:42
  I'm in the minority here and that I watched Godzilla -1 and I was like,
• 39:46
  you know,
• 39:47
  um,
• 39:47
  it was
• 39:48
  good,
• 39:48
  um,
• 39:49
  you know,
• 39:49
  I,
• 39:50
  I didn't think it was like the greatest movie of all time.
• 39:52
  Apparently most people do.
• 39:53
  I mean that's what I'm told.
• 39:55
  In fact,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:55
  it,
• 39:55
  it does seem to be one of the highest rated movies ever on Rotten Tomatoes.
• 40:00
  Um,
• 40:00
  Godzilla 0 is the sequel.
• 40:03
  The naming convention of these movies we'll get to in a minute.
• 40:06
  It's the most insane thing I've ever heard.
• 40:08
  And there is a market on this.
• 40:09
  Now,
• 40:09
  if you don't know the backstory of this.
• 40:11
  Um,
• 40:12
  in the Dodd-Frank bill.
• 40:15
  Some Hollywood friend was like,
• 40:17
  you can't put
• 40:19
  box office receipts on prediction markets.
• 40:21
  I don't know why they stuck it in this bill,
• 40:24
  but they did it way back in the day,
• 40:25
  so you can't
• 40:26
  put in the United States at least,
• 40:28
  can't use,
• 40:28
  uh,
• 40:29
  you can't go on prediction markets
• 40:30
  to,
• 40:31
  uh,
• 40:31
  invest in the,
• 40:32
  uh,
• 40:32
  box office outcomes to,
• 40:33
  to say,
• 40:34
  you know,
• 40:34
  who's gonna make more money.
• 40:35
  What you can do,
• 40:36
  however,
• 40:37
  is go on the Rotten Tomatoes score.
• 40:39
  What will the Rotten Tomatoes score be for Godzilla 0?
• 40:44
  Uh,
• 40:45
  here's the market.
• 40:45
  Uh,
• 40:46
  and you can go through all these different prices.
• 40:47
  Now,
• 40:47
  I will tell you,
• 40:49
  in preparation for this day,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:52
  this morning,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:53
  Adam pitched this segment and he said,
• 40:55
  I think this is gonna be,
• 40:57
  at the time,
• 40:57
  it was projected to be at 95.3% on Rotten Tomatoes.
• 41:00
  Very good,
• 41:01
  not as good as the original.
• 41:03
  Um,
• 41:03
  Adam
• 41:04
  projected,
• 41:05
  he,
• 41:05
  he pitched that,
• 41:06
  and since then,
• 41:07
  it has already dropped from 95 to 93.
• 41:10
  You could see the line drop straight down.
• 41:12
  I wish we got this to you even earlier,
• 41:14
  unfortunately,
• 41:15
  cause it did drop a little bit.
• 41:17
  This morning,
• 41:17
  I was able to buy shares
• 41:19
  of no
• 41:21
  on his projection,
• 41:22
  and I'll tell you about that here in a second.
• 41:24
  Um,
• 41:25
  which it already is way,
• 41:26
  way,
• 41:26
  way up.
• 41:27
  Godzilla 0 tomato score,
• 41:28
  his,
• 41:28
  his thesis is,
• 41:30
  it will be above 90,
• 41:31
  so it'll be very well reviewed,
• 41:32
  but probably not above 95.
• 41:35
  Uh,
• 41:35
  Calci had it at a 95%,
• 41:38
  uh,
• 41:38
  at the time of this.
• 41:39
  Adam's guess was 91%.
• 41:41
  So you can,
• 41:42
  on,
• 41:42
  on these markets,
• 41:43
  you can pick,
• 41:44
  uh,
• 41:44
  it will be below 94 or below 92 or below 96,
• 41:48
  whatever you want and get that at different prices.
• 41:50
  I was getting below 94
• 41:53
  at a 30% possibility this morning.
• 41:55
  I don't know what it's at.
• 41:56
  Yeah,
• 41:56
  I think it was up to like 50 or 60 now.
• 41:58
  Um,
• 41:59
  what's the evidence?
• 41:59
  What's the case here?
• 42:00
  Well,
• 42:00
  Godzilla -1,
• 42:01
  which was the original.
• 42:03
  It was a bona fide masterpiece,
• 42:04
  according to Adam,
• 42:05
  and topping uh that is going to be a challenge.
• 42:07
  That the original's at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes,
• 42:10
  so it's gonna be really hard unless it's like the greatest movie of all time.
• 42:13
  Uh,
• 42:13
  earlier reviews from the premiere,
• 42:15
  uh,
• 42:16
  seem to imply it's a very good film,
• 42:17
  maybe a great film,
• 42:18
  but not as great as the original,
• 42:20
  which is of course typical with a sequel,
• 42:21
  right?
• 42:21
  Really hard to stand up to the original.
• 42:23
  It is the first R-rated Godzilla movie ever
• 42:27
  in franchise history.
• 42:29
  Will that be jarring to fans?
• 42:30
  Yeah,
• 42:30
  maybe,
• 42:31
  maybe not,
• 42:31
  but it is a big change.
• 42:33
  Metacritic,
• 42:34
  another rating agency,
• 42:35
  if you will,
• 42:36
  has it at a 78.
• 42:38
  Again,
• 42:38
  pretty good,
• 42:39
  but not great,
• 42:40
  not great.
• 42:42
  Um,
• 42:42
  and of course,
• 42:42
  I,
• 42:43
  as I told you,
• 42:43
  and as Adam pointed out on this card that he presented to me,
• 42:46
  Adam was right about willful.
• 42:48
  That's all it says on the card.
• 42:52
  He was right about well Paul.
• 42:53
  I made money off of that.
• 42:54
  Maybe we'll make money off of this too.
• 42:56
  So far we're already up.
• 42:57
  Godzilla,
• 42:57
  by the way,
• 42:58
  I will just tell you,
• 42:58
  I don't understand what,
• 42:59
  what do you mean Godzilla -1?
• 43:00
  What does that even mean?
• 43:02
  Uh,
• 43:02
  so the Godzilla -1 was the original one.
• 43:04
  It's something to do with like,
• 43:05
  hey,
• 43:06
  Japan,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:07
  was,
• 43:08
  it was,
• 43:08
  was at the 0 point after the nuclear bomb went off,
• 43:12
  and then it got even worse cause a
• 43:13
  giant lizard dinosaur creature started blowing everything up.
• 43:17
  Um,
• 43:17
  and walking on buildings.
• 43:18
  So they went from 0 to -1.
• 43:21
  Now they're 0,
• 43:22
  which I think means things are getting better.
• 43:24
  So,
• 43:24
  congratulations to Japan.
• 43:26
  Uh,
• 43:27
  and congratulations to us.
• 43:28
  Hopefully,
• 43:28
  we're gonna win.
• 43:28
  I,
• 43:29
  I'm already up on this one.
• 43:30
  This is great.
• 43:31
  Um,
• 43:31
  I was,
• 43:32
  I bought it,
• 43:32
  I think at under 94 at 30,
• 43:34
  and I think it was at 60 or 64 or something,
• 43:36
  I think I saw on there.
• 43:37
  Uh,
• 43:38
  what is it at?
• 43:38
  Go to give me under 94 here real quick before we break.
• 43:41
  Under 94 would be,
• 43:43
  if you go to 94,
• 43:44
  click no,
• 43:45
  64.
• 43:46
  So it's,
• 43:47
  I've already doubled my money since Adam pitched this in the morning.
• 43:49
  Adam,
• 43:50
  more Adam segments.
• 43:53
  More Adam segments,
• 43:54
  less stew segments.
• 43:56
  Fewer two segments
• 43:57
  in the appropriate way.
• 43:58
  Let's take a break,
• 43:59
  back in a second.
• 44:08
  A checking account makes you about what?
• 44:11
  0% per year?
• 44:12
  A savings account,
• 44:13
  maybe 2 or 3% per year.
• 44:16
  I can tell you right now,
• 44:17
  there are tons of opportunities on prediction markets for you to make,
• 44:20
  like,
• 44:21
  I'm gonna be really conservative here,
• 44:23
  5%
• 44:24
  on your money
• 44:25
  in the next 6 days.
• 44:27
  I can give you uh uh uh easily a dozen different markets that would do that for you.
• 44:31
  Um,
• 44:32
  And,
• 44:33
  uh,
• 44:33
  you know,
• 44:33
  look,
• 44:34
  I am not an investment advisor,
• 44:36
  I,
• 44:36
  you know,
• 44:37
  but I can tell you these,
• 44:37
  there's real opportunities in these markets,
• 44:39
  especially if you wanna be really conservative and
• 44:41
  just increase your capital a little bit.
• 44:43
  Um,
• 44:43
  so
• 44:44
  join us at predictableShow.com.
• 44:45
  If you're a premium subscriber,
• 44:46
  you're gonna get every single pick that I have.
• 44:48
  You can be as risky as you want,
• 44:50
  but it's predictableShow.com.
• 44:51
  Become a premium subscriber,
• 44:52
  you get every single pick that I have.
• 44:54
  Stu's picks,
• 44:55
  it's available
• 44:56
  for you to see.
• 44:57
  There's over 300 of them,
• 44:58
  uh,
• 44:59
  for you to peruse,
• 45:00
  but
• 45:01
  Pick a couple of them.
• 45:02
  Get involved.
• 45:02
  Check this out.
• 45:03
  It's a real tool
• 45:04
  for you.
• 45:04
  Even if the only thing that you have is really nerdy Godzilla knowledge,
• 45:08
  you too can make money on prediction markets.
• 45:11
  All right,
• 45:11
  that's all the time that we have for today.
• 45:13
  We'll talk to you soon and see you at predictableshow.com.