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Warsh Tries to Reset the Fed Message · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 2: It's Chuck, Mike and Ben with you here today, and
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  Speaker 2: we're going to talk about things related to money and business,
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: and starting with the stock market, which today is kind
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  Speaker 2: of just, you know, as it's been for a little
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  Speaker 2: while now, just dispersion pulling it in different directions. It's
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  Speaker 2: like you've got, you know, these strings that it's a
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: tug of war between market participants and everyone is equally
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  Speaker 2: as strong. It's kind of what we're seeing. Sp five
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  Speaker 2: hundred up four points, Dow down one ninety, Nasdaq up
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  Speaker 2: sixty nine. So again just kind of this mixed, relatively
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  Speaker 2: calm market, which is nice after what we saw at
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  Speaker 2: the start of last week where it looked like things
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  Speaker 2: might be coming unraveled a little bit. It's good to
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  Speaker 2: see a little bit of a little bit of stability there.
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  Speaker 2: Ten year treasury after a few years, bless you who
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  Speaker 2: have that was was that from the next room? That's
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  Speaker 2: from the Wow? That was that was quite a sneeze.
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  Speaker 2: US ten year treasury up three basis points after consolidating
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  Speaker 2: downward for the last couple of days, now at four
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  Speaker 2: point six four to seven percent. Despite yield's rising today,
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  Speaker 2: Gold up twenty two dollars and eighty cents an ounce.
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  Speaker 2: Take note of this. When we see gold and yields diverging,
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  Speaker 2: or rather when they're they're correlating in the same direction,
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  Speaker 2: gold and bond prices are diverging. That's interesting to me
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  Speaker 2: because it potentially represents a shift in the way investors
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  Speaker 2: typically think about gold. Normally, gold catches a bid as
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  Speaker 2: real interest rates come down. If we have gold and
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  Speaker 2: reels moving up at the same time, historically, that has
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  Speaker 2: been some of the strongest action that we've seen for
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  Speaker 2: precious medals. And we'll see if that's the case here
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  Speaker 2: or if this is maybe just a one or two
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  Speaker 2: day headfake. Don't know. Keep your mind open to different possibilities.
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  Speaker 2: Otherwise you know you're missing out. It's a big world
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  Speaker 2: with lots of stuff in it. That's what Ferris Buehler said,
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  Speaker 2: I think, right, Yeah. Basically, Crude oil also moving up today,
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  Speaker 2: up one thirty six a barrel to seventy six fifty eight.
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  Speaker 2: Despite that, prices falling over the last couple of days
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  Speaker 2: is bringing down the price of gas modestly, now off
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  Speaker 2: about one point seven cents on the TRIPAA national average,
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  Speaker 2: down to four h six and three tenths of ascent.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not going to quote hundreds of ascent because we
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  Speaker 2: cannot go to four decimal points for gas prices. Michael,
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  Speaker 2: It's just too confusing and too much. I can't do it.
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  Speaker 2: Let's talk Kevin Warsh here. There's a piece in the
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  Speaker 2: Financial Times that, interestingly to me, comes off as worsh
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  Speaker 2: trying to kind of issue Ama Kopa while at the
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  Speaker 2: same time not fully coming clean on his communication style.
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  Speaker 2: And what I mean by this is the third paragraph
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  Speaker 2: I'll quote right here. People close to Wars said he
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  Speaker 2: acknowledged he had made mistakes in his first ten weeks
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  Speaker 2: at the helm of the world's most important central bank,
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  Speaker 2: including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability,
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  Speaker 2: and so inconfused over whether his long term plans to
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  Speaker 2: reform the FED could affect near term policy decisions. That paragraph.
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  Speaker 2: Whenever you read anything, you have to ask yourself, why
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  Speaker 2: am I reading this now?
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  Speaker 3: Sure?
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  Speaker 2: That paragraph you are reading because Kevin Worris wants you
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  Speaker 2: to read it now? Yeah, there's no other reason why
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  Speaker 2: that is being published. This is also interesting in the
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  Speaker 2: context of did you see Scott Best yesterday? Going after
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  Speaker 2: Nick tim Morose, Yeah, a little bit. So Scott Bessant
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  Speaker 2: went in on Timorrose. Timros is the Washington Posts or sorry,
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  Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal's FED reporter, and Besant yesterday says, quote,
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  Speaker 2: this is on X. One of the highlights of the
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  Speaker 2: worst FED has been watching stenographers posing his journalists like
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  Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journals. Nick tim Rose reduced to reporting
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  Speaker 2: FED backroom gossip because they're incapable of performing real economic
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: or monetary and policy analysis without being spoon fed. So
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  Speaker 2: it's again.
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  Speaker 3: We questioned whether that relationship was going to stick around,
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  Speaker 3: and it's appearing like tim Ros might be losing some
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  Speaker 3: of his value, some of his value to the Wall
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  Speaker 3: Street Journal.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, might be on the outs with the current FED
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  Speaker 2: chairs kind of the read that I get, but maybe
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: the Financial Times and Claire Jones picking up the mantle instead.
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  Speaker 2: So I think that that paragraph that I read indicates
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  Speaker 2: Hey Worsh wants to do somewhat of a soft reset
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  Speaker 2: in terms of how he's gonna communicate. Got it the
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  Speaker 2: next paragraph though, But they insist those errors do not
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  Speaker 2: warrant reversing course on his shakeup of the FED, which
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  Speaker 2: which missed its two percent inflation goal. For five years.
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  Speaker 2: A pillar of Worsh's strategy is drastically reducing policymakers guidance
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  Speaker 2: to markets. A planning is repeatedly emphasized following last Wednesday's
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  Speaker 2: FED meeting.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, to be clear, I would criticize
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  Speaker 3: Worsh more for pivoting on this stance that he's had
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  Speaker 3: ten weeks in than screwing up some of his presentation
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  Speaker 3: like he did last week. Right, like if he went
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  Speaker 3: and screwed up and then on Monday of this week
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  Speaker 3: turned around and said, you know what, we're killing these
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  Speaker 3: committees and we're going to communicate a lot more. Of course,
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  Speaker 3: he's not pivoting on his communication style. That has been
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  Speaker 3: the entirety of his philosophy since taking over the FED
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  Speaker 3: is they communicate too much and we're going to change that.
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  Speaker 3: He cannot switch it up just because of one admittedly
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  Speaker 3: pretty bad press conference.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, I will make one point that I think is
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  Speaker 2: worth noting. When we talk about information in the absence
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  Speaker 2: of direct information from any so and this is true
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  Speaker 2: in anything. This is true whether you're following sports, this
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  Speaker 2: is true, if you're following business. It's true if you're
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  Speaker 2: asking your kid what they did yesterday. If that direct
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  Speaker 2: source does not give you direct answers, what does it
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  Speaker 2: leave you to do?
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  Speaker 3: Make them up yourself, not make them upy hypothesize, guess
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  Speaker 3: you speculate, and then you start asking around other people
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  Speaker 3: in their orbit saying, hey, what's going on?
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  Speaker 1: What?
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  Speaker 2: So, Ultimately, if you want less speculation about what is
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  Speaker 2: going to happen, the best way to quash that speculation
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: is to say this is what's going to happen. Now.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that wars should or shouldn't do that,
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  Speaker 2: but you can't simultaneously complain about well reporters are, you know,
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  Speaker 2: asking trying to get gossip when you're not telling them anything.
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  Speaker 3: You can't do both. Yeah, I see what you are
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  Speaker 3: saying there. I don't think that Worsh actually have has
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  Speaker 3: will have a problem with the speculation. I think you know,
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  Speaker 3: perhaps best And wanted to throw some water on uh
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  Speaker 3: over on tim Rose. And you know the why why?
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  Speaker 2: Why? Why does why does best And care he's running
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  Speaker 2: the Treasury not the Fed.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know why he seemed to pick a
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  Speaker 3: fight with tim Rose there.
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  Speaker 2: Once again you think it's not coming from Worsh Yeah, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: you know, like I just look at this and so look,
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  Speaker 2: you can have it one of two ways. You can
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  Speaker 2: either have less speculation because you're telling people directly, or
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  Speaker 2: if you don't tell people directly, they're going to speculate.
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  Speaker 2: And that's fine.
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  Speaker 3: Like and by the way, tim Rose will do just
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  Speaker 3: fine with the Wall Street Journal reporting on juicy gossip. Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: like people will read that all day. Well, here's the
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  Speaker 3: thing about tabloids.
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  Speaker 2: No, it's he doesn't even need juicy gossip. Remember, tim
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  Speaker 2: Rose doesn't need to have worsh telling him what the
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  Speaker 2: Fed's doing.
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  Speaker 3: Right, He's got plenty of those sources.
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  Speaker 2: He's got your own Powell, who's still on the Open
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  Speaker 2: Market Committee, right, Like, he doesn't have to you know,
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  Speaker 2: if worst doesn't want to deal with him, fine, he'll
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  Speaker 2: talk to j Powell. So it does set up for
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  Speaker 2: the most dramatic season of the FED that we've ever had.
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  Speaker 2: But like them's the like that's the Reil Fed husbands. Yes,
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  Speaker 2: like this is the deal. You know, it's if I'm
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  Speaker 2: trying to if you were making a reality show, if
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  Speaker 2: the FED decided, like we're going to do our version
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  Speaker 2: of like Hard Knocks, or we're gonna do like what
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  Speaker 2: would the FED reality show be?
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  Speaker 3: What would the title of it be? Yes, yeah, I
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  Speaker 3: don't I'm not good at this off the cuff type
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  Speaker 3: type creative creation.
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  Speaker 2: Not I'm initially thinking like something referencing like the gold Standard,
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  Speaker 2: but we're not on the gold standard. Maybe something about
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  Speaker 2: the dot plot like dot plotters, or I don't know, uh,
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  Speaker 2: what about a riff on like keeping up with the
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Kardashians with keeping up with the Chairman. Maybe that.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I don't know who's gonna air this garbage.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: It's gonna have like six viewers. They're all gonna have
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: a lot of money though, so yeah, the advertise, it
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: feels like Paramount might pick it up.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: The ad rates would be high. It's kind of like
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: golf tournaments. Not many viewers, but the ads are premium spots.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we return, we're joined
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  Speaker 2: by Corey Adams from Robert Half Right after.
• 10:38
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• 11:16
  Speaker 3: Coreatoms from hiring agency and management consultant Robert Half joins
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: us now right ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. Corey, thanks
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  Speaker 3: for joining us again, appreciate it.
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  Speaker 4: Give him one of Mike. Thanks for having me as always.
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  Speaker 3: You know, one of the trends we've been falling has
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  Speaker 3: been the pace of hiring this year picking up, especially
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: compared to last year, when the more we look at
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: the data, the more it seems there was some real
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: hesitance around the new tariffs and what it might mean
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: for businesses. But we have seen an uptick so far
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six in the pace of hiring, and
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: your recent survey seems to indicate that we could see
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: another uptick from here. What did you find in the
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  Speaker 3: survey of employers?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, it does, so I'll give you four kind of
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  Speaker 4: data sets here that we can talk about. So sixty
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  Speaker 4: six percent of employers actually plan to increase permanent hiring
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  Speaker 4: in the second half of twenty twenty six and It's
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  Speaker 4: important to note that that is up from sixty percent
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  Speaker 4: in the first half of this year. Fifty six percent
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  Speaker 4: plan to increase contract hiring to access specialized skills and
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: keep key initiatives moving forward. Forty eight percent of employers
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: report canceling projects altogether because they couldn't find workers with
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: the necessary skills, and then sixty three percent say that
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: talent shortages have led to significant project delays. The one
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  Speaker 4: thing I will just call out my for your reference
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  Speaker 4: is when we share these numbers, oftentimes this is a
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  Speaker 4: national look, and so these are from hiring managers across
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  Speaker 4: the domestic US. Here, what I'll tell you is we
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: look locally here for a minute and pull it back.
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: Boston is pretty much in line with most of what
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: we see nationally, and so what we experience here locally
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: is what is in line with what's happening across the
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: rest of the country.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: So I think, obviously, when we talk about the labor market,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: the going conversation right now, what's AI going to do
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: to it? Am I still going to be able to
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: find work in my industry? When you take a look
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: at hiring plans by the industries, where are you seeing
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: companies with the biggest improvements or the biggest hiring plans
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: out there.
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  Speaker 4: So let's just kind of start with the big three
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: and I'll get pretty granular here. So the big three
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  Speaker 4: where we're seeing the greatest demand, and it's probably not
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: a lot of surprise, but it's technology, it's healthcare, and
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  Speaker 4: it's finance and accounting. Is all three of these buckets
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  Speaker 4: are reporting the strongest hiring plans for the rest of
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: the year. I mean, these sectors continue to face high
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: demand for specialized scale and expertise, but we're also seeing
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: many employers are hiring right now to support digital transformation,
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: operational efficiency, as well as regulatory requirements. But if we
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: want to get real details, you know, finance and accounting,
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: the greatest demand falls within audit and financial controls. We
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: see it within the entire building process as well as
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: payroll managements. When we look at technology, no surprise, the
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: leading in demand area is AI adoption, and then you
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: have enterprise software applications and machine learning. And then if
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: we just want to touch on healthcare, and again this
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: is going to be non clinical, but you see patient
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: access record management as well as scheduling, and then within legal,
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: AI literacy compliance, e discovery and litigation. And then just
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: to kind of bring it home for you, human resources,
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: you see a great demand and benefits administration employee onboarding,
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: anything within work day, and then anything within recruitment, which
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: sort of ties into the demand that we're seeing in
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: the marketplace and expectation for hiring having over the next
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: five months.
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  Speaker 3: So what I'm hearing from you seems to be a
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  Speaker 3: skill set mismatch.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Employers are looking for employees and actively canceling projects that
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: they want to roll out because they can't find the
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: right ones. But when I look at the data and
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: the aggregate, there are plenty of people not working right now.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: It's not a high unemployment rate environment by any stretch
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: of the imagination, But compared to just a few years
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: ago when labor was in an extremely short supply, we
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: seem much more balanced in the aggregate. And yet your
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: survey seem seems to find that employers are having a
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: very difficult time finding the right people.
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's just talk about the labor market for
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: a second, right, And this was sort of paint the picture,
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: and I think we did this, you know, the last
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: time we talked. But the labor market indicators are pointing
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: to a continued demand for talent, right, I think you
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: sort of said this, but unemployment rates remain really low
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: for most professional occupations. We know that the job openings
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: are still above historic norms, and we know that the
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: hiring rate has been sitting at three point three percent.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: And so as hiring activity continues to increase and it has,
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: employers are basically focusing on feeling specialized roles in business
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: critical positions that support growth productivity, but they also contribute
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: to future hiring increases and being competitive because that's really important.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: So you know, they're being thoughtful in their approach. And
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: the whole sort of motivation and why companies are moving
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: forward with things that were previously delayed has just sort
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: of been shifted. And so if you sort of look
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: at all this some of the data, some of the trends,
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: you can sort of point to the fact that this
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: is continuing to signal that there's some gradual improvement in
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: the market. But then the other side of this, just
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: to talk about and you didn't sort of say this,
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: but you alluded to this, but let's call it what
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: it is. We're also still hearing occasionally about these layoffs
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: that happen, and so you know, listen, at the end
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: of the day, layoffs are certainly still a part of
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: the economy in this moment, and understandably they're significant for
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: their individuals as well as well as the communities that
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: are affected. But like layoffs are not the only story
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: that we're seeing in the labor market. Manyorizations are continuing
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: to recruit for these critical roles that they just alluded to,
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: and they're doing so despite the fact that workforce reductions
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: may be occurring elsewhere. So we're just seeing, to sort
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: of actually answer your question now, Mike, we're just seeing
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: a little bit more of a nuanced environment where workf
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: worse reductions in some areas are actually coexisting with active
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: hiring and others. So we're just going to remember that
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: that layoffs and talent talent shortages can actually exist at
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: the same time, because not all skills and or industries
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: are actually interchangeable.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: So, Corey, one thing I can almost guarantee is that
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: at the conclusion this interview, we'll have a text or
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: an email into the show telling me about you know,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: this individual who's been searching for a job for six
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: months or this one's kid who graduated with a really
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: specialized degree and still can't find a job. So, for
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: the listeners out there that are seeking right now, what
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: are the employers looking for? And how can you know
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: employees looking for work better stand out? And I'm sorry
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: I asked you this question and only have like a
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: minute for your answer.
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: I'll be quick tell those individuals with feel free to
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: contact me, but I'll be as concise as possible. You
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: want to be clear about your impact. You want to
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: be clear about what you've accomplished, and you want to
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: be clear about the business results that you yourself have delivered.
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: Use AI as a tool, as a shortcuts and tail
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: your resume and outreach so that it feels specific and
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: authentic right now, because we're living in this world of
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: AI resumes and clients that having a really hard time
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: distinguishing between who's a valid candidate and who's capable of
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: doing a job. So be specific, be authentic, but also
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: make sure you're showcasing both of your technical and soft skills,
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: because employers want people who can do the job, but
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: they also want people who can collaborate and communicate effectively.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: Corey Adams from Robert Half joining us today to talk
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: about their latest survey on the state of the labor market, hiring,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: and just where which employers are looking for specialized employees. Corey,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us as always appreciated, really
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: insightful and we'll talk to you again soon.
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: My pleasure to take care.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: As a reminder, we will be getting a labor market
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: report tomorrow. The monthly jobs report comes out at eight
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: thirty am tomorrow. Expectations right now are for, according to
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: market Watch, eighty three thousand jobs to be created. That's
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: after last month's fifty seven thousand, and the unemployment rate
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: to stay steady at four point two percent. We will
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: get that full report and be breaking it down live
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: on the show tomorrow at ten when we kick off,
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: but the report itself out tomorrow at eight thirty a m.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: We're going to take a quick break here on the
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: Financial Exchange when we return. Full market update is next
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: with Wall Street Watch. Stay tuned, bringing.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: The latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: t now full Wall Street Watch trecking the stocks, the
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: dato and the headlines driving markets so far today Right
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: here on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: It's our mixed and head in the wrong direction right now.
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: Dow Jones is off six tens or percent. The S
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: and P five hundreds down twelve points or point one
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: six percent. The NASDAK, on the other hand, is positive
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: point zero five percent. Oil is up a dollar ninety
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: three or two and a half percent. Brent crude is
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: up two thirty four or two point nine five percent.
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: Gold right now is up seven dollars and forty cents,
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: or point one seven percent. Silver, on the other hand,
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: is down one point one six percent. Peloton shares sank
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: nearly twelve percent after its fourth quarter results. Its earnings
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: of thirteen cents per share was in line with estimates,
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: while its revenue topped expectations. Pelton also reported its active
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: paying subscribers fell eight point eight percent year over year.
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: The Food and Drug Administration Improvement JURNER is mRNA flu
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: vaccine m fluzeva for adults fifty or older. Despite the news,
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: shares are down two percent. Sand Disks led three percent
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: as revel guidance appeared to disappoint traders. Sandas said its
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: first quarter revenue in a range of ten point three
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: billion to ten point eight billion, while the consensus sought
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: ten point four to seven billion. Fourth quarter results beat
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: expectations on the top and bottom lines. Door Dash added
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: one percent after its quarterly revenue of four point four
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: to five billion dollars beat the consensus of four point
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: three four billion dollars. Its earnings of forty six cents
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: a share came in line with expectations, and finally, Zillo
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: slid more than twelve and a half percent after it
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: expanded chief financial officer Jeremy Hoffman's role, giving him the
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: additional title of chief operating Officer. The company also reported
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: a solid quarter after the bell, with adjusted earnings per
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: share of fifty two cents, topping estimates of forty five
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: cents and seven hundred and seventy two million dollars in revenue,
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: beating estimates of seven hundred and fifty eight million dollars.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: A day earlier, the company announced it would let go
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: of about five hundred employees. I am Ben Kitchen and
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: that was Wall Street Watch Chuck.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: Two weeks from today, we have a a live seminar
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: from the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group that I want
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: to tell everybody about. It's Thursday, August twentieth in Framingham
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: after work five pm. Kickoff here and you may have
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: heard me talk about previous ones that we've done here
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: in Braintree as well as up in Woburn. This one's
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: out in Framingham, and if you missed the other two,
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: it's your perfect opportunity to attend a tour. If you
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: didn't want to drive to either of those and this
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: is close to you, true, that would also work. Maybe
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: you are not north or south of Boston and instead
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: are west of Boston and I would like to attend
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: this one. It's a conversation on the two most commonly
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: asked questions we get from retirees. How's our security work,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: how's medicare work? And how specifically are there two programs
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: going to work for me. We'll be top tackling the
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: ins and outs of these two different programs, how they're
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: going to interact with your other in that you might
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: have in retirement. Maybe you are on state provided health insurance,
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: maybe you'll be getting a pension from work. Maybe you
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: are divorced and have questions about how that's going to
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: affect your social security. All of these we tackle at
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: these and we've had some really good questions from the crowd.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: The last two that again, this is not us talking
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: to you for an hour and a half. This is
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: the opportunity to bring your actual questions to us about
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: how the program's going to work for you and specifically
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: how it's going to contribute to your retirement. You have
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: to register ahead of time, space is limited. The next
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: event is on Thursday August twentieth in Framingham at the
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: Big Castle Hotel. There the Renaissance framing him right off
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: the highway. Easy to get, too easy to find. Go
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: to Armstrong Advisory dot com slash events to reserve your spot.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: You can book for you and as well as your guests.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Again Armstrong Advisory dot com Slash Events Thursday August twentieth
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: at five pm or call us at eight hundred thirty
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: nine three four zero zero one.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: He's back, Mike, Yeah, it only took a week. He's back.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Leopold Ashton Brenner, the manager of the Situational Awareness hedge
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: fund that blew up last week, has made a new
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: four hundred million dollar investment in what you might ask,
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: The answer is some private company. We don't know. It's
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: a private Excuse me, it's a privately old company and
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: it gets What I do think is a great lesson
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: that he learned from this, albeit the wrong one, which
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: is you can't get margin called on a private asset. True,
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: because you can't borrow again, can't use margin on a
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: private asset.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: So it's uh, look I it's actually a lesson that
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: financial salespeople across the board have been using for a
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: long time. Hey, look at how privately held investments reduce
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: your volatility. Well yeah, only because they don't get marked
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: to the market every day. That doesn't mean that they
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: don't have price volatility underlying them. Like it's like saying, uh,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: you know, I love investing in real estate because of
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: the lack of volatility. Well that's because you don't try
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: and sell it every six hours.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Yes. I have mixed thoughts on this. On one hand,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: good Annie for getting back on the horse. On the
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: other maybe you should take a minute to like think
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: about what you did and figure out how to not
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: end up back in the same spot. Nope, so I
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: don't know, Like, we'll see what happens from here again.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Managing private assets, the good news, as you mentioned, like
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: you typically can't blow up as often because of how
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: they're marked. The bad news is that when private assets
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: do blow up, you have no recourse because they're privately
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: held like that, there is no citadel to come take
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: them off your hands. Then you have to go and
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: just find like a buyer for whatever you might be
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: able to get for them and hope that it works.
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: Citadel might come and buy it, but it's a lot
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: more difficult to figure out what they're gonna pay for it.
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: Yes, so we'll see. Uh again. I I don't know
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: if this is good, bad, or ugly. Ashton Brenner reportedly
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: is a very very good picker of stocks but just
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: got burnt by too much leverage. So if he's really
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: that good at picking companies, maybe this is great, or
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: maybe he's just shell shocked and making bad decisions.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: Now. I don't know.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: We'll have to see.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: We're gonna have to report on this guy for years now, aren't.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: We Everything he does, it's gonna be the next Michael Burry.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: It's interesting and he's only proven Michael Berry's He's only
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: twenty five. So who's gonna outlive both of us?
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, in all likelihood.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: You know, he looks like he's twelve, so he's definitely
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: gonna outlive.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Both of us.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: I mean even when I was twenty five, I looked
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: forty five.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: Clearly much healthier than either of the two of us.
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: They'll speak for yourself, you know, nearly much healthier than
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: I am, you know, or was at twenty five.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Yes, I would say he has a much better head
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: of hair than I've ever had, even at fifteen.
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: So yeah, you know, take it for what it's worth. Yeah,
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be well again. There is nothing funnier
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: than a hedge fund called situational Awareness blowing up when
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: the stock markets down by less than three percent. So,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: like I do applaud the comedy, I don't look forward
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: to covering it for the next fifteen years.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: Sure, I want to cover this piece on LSU Athletics
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: that Ben was able to pop in here. So LSU
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: had meetings in the last couple of days with donors
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: trying to figure out what their athletic program is going
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: to look like going forward for revenue generation because starting,
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: you know, basically starting now, like schools can start to
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: directly share sports related revenue with they're athletes. It's not
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: just nil deals. Major D one college programs are able
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: to share up to around twenty one million dollars in
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: sports related revenues with their athletes. And so the question is, like,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: how are we going to do this. There's a lot
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: of private equity firms kind of circling saying, oh, like,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: we'll give you cash now in exchange for you know,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: future you know, rights money and things like that, and
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: ls you basically saying, look like we're not, we don't
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: want to go that route. But the lead is kind
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: of buried in here in that LSU I'll quote here
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: from this piece. LSU's taken on more than one hundred
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: and eighty million dollars in spending commitments in the past years.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: Because of two coaching changes. LSU football fired Brian Kelly
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: with fifty four million dollars remaining on his contract in
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: late October, and basketball coach Matt McMahon when the university
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: still owed him eight million dollars. They then hired Lane
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: kiff and is Kelly's replacement, luring him with a seven
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: year contract with ninety one million dollars, and followed that
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: up by hiring basketball coach Will Wade, who's already by
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: the way, Will Wade. If you're not familiar with him,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: either of you know his story. Nope, okay, So Will
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Wade already was the LSU basketball coach from twenty seventeen
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: to twenty twenty two. He was fired because of a
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: whole bunch of NCAA investigations into improper benefits and recruiting violations.
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: Well, the goodness is pretty much all that stuff is
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: legal now sort of.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Yes, Hey, if you can't beat him, change the rules,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: I guess is like is the rule at this point.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: So don't have to worry about that anymore. Check a
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: few things, not taking into account ethics.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: A few things. Number one, I have absolutely no problem
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: with like Lane Kiffen making like fourteen million dollars a
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: year as the LSU football coach. People will be like, well,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: you know, LS use a public institution, Like what about
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: the budget? I refer people back to Jim Calhoun the
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: former coach of the Yukon men's basketball team for about
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: twenty years. Someone once asked him, Jim, do you feel
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: you know, bad about taking like your salary given out
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: high it is, and he pointed out, he goes, go
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: look at the school budget. Yukon basketball contributes millions of
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: dollars each year on a net basis to the school,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: which actually makes it cheaper for everyone else to go.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: So no, I don't feel bad about my salary. I'm
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: sure that when you look at LSU's books, LSU football
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: is a huge net contributor to LSU's budget. It probably
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: isn't great that they do have that, you know, all
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: those hits for the coaches they fired. You know, yeah,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: when you're paying two coaches, maybe it doesn't make sense
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: budget wise, and that could be the problem is just
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: bad hiring that you've you've gone through, But there's no
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: inherent problem there. The problem that you have with college athletics, though,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: is that for every LSU football that makes a bunch
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: of money for the institution, you have And I say
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: this is like a proud soccer player. You have an
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: LSU soccer which does not make money for the institution,
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and probably loses it because of its travel schedule. You
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: have an LSU, and again I don't know if they
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: actually have these sports, but you have LSU fencing and
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: gymnastics and water polo and all these non revenue sports.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Where have you looked at the SEC map lately, Michael
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: of like all the schools that are in the SEC.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like east, west, north South. It still is
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: mostly southern, but it's like, no, the ACC is the worst.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: The AEC literally now has like both coast covered.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: It's the Atlantic Pacific Coast Conference, not the Atlantic Coast Conference.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: But here's the deal. If your Texas is an example,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: and you've got to schlep your fencing team over to
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: you know, freaking Gainesville, Florida to battle the Gainesville Gators,
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: you know fencing team, it's costing you tens of thousands
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: of dollars to do that. You're taking your fencers away
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: from classes. And by the way, try the ticket sales
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: alone fencing. By the way, those kids aren't going pro
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: in fencing because I don't know if there is a
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: pro fencing league. I think it actually would be kind
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: of I kind of wonder why fencing hasn't caught on
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: More as a professional sport.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Watched it? What do you mean, Oh, I think it's
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: just the lamest Why is it lame?
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: It's people trying to stab each other with swords.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but the way that they you know, I'm looking
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: for something.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: You want them to actually be beheaded.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: So I'm looking for, you know, the fencing and like
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: a Bond movie or you want like jousting. What's the
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: one with the twins at camp little Girls? Uh, Lindsay
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: Lohan parrotrap? Yeah, that's the fencing I'm looking for. Yeah,
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's really what it is. Michael, Yeah,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: I know that's why I don't like it.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, Like it's people swinging swords around, Like,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: how can you not find a way to market that?
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: According to The Knight new House School Syracuse, LSU is
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: one of the thirteen college sports programs that it's valued
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: over a billion dollars.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: Right, So I don't have problems with like, and I'm
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: sure that ninety percent of that is ella. Here's here's
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: my guess on the breakdown. Eighty five percent of that
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: is LSU football, ten percent in some way, shape or
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: form is LSU Men's and women's basketball, and the remainder
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: is probably between LSU baseball and gymnastics. Everything else loses money.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: That's what I was gonna say is that football probably
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: makes up like more than one hundred percent because of
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: so many programs losing so much money. It's like how
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: it makes if you want to get at that incentive
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: of smartphone profits.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably fair. Let's take a quick break. When
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: we return, We've got stack Roulette next.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Here The Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon,
• 33:57
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• 34:01
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• 34:03
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• 34:33
  Speaker 5: The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
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  Speaker 5: than eight hundred runners who have already registered for this
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• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Mike, what do you got for me? For stack roulettes?
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: I have what is the single weirdest Wall Street Journal
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: piece that I think I've ever seen published.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: It's a Oh, it's a.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: Lifestyle essay from a PJ. Sorry, PG Sittenfeld and PG.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: Sittenfeld is described in the priests as a writer and
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: public speaker who lives in Cincinnati with his wife and
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: three sons, which is a bit like calling Tom Hanks,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: you know, a father and enthusiastic vintage typewriter collector, which
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: happens to be true, but is not what he's famous for.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: PG Sittenfeld is famous for being the youngest Democrat ever
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: elected to the Cincinnati House and then convicted in twenty
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: twenty two on federal charges of bribery and attempted extortion
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: in connection with an undercover investigation by the FBI. Oh,
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: his whole essay is about phone addiction and how he
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: didn't really realize how addicted to his phone he was
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: until he went to prison for said convictions on bribery
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: and attempted extortion while he was a sitting public official.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: He was eventually granted a pardon by President Trump. Actually,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: but again, I'm just so confused by the editorial board
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: at the Wall Street Journal who says, yeah, you know what,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: let's have a convicted felon granted, he was granted a
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: pardon by the president, so whatever you want to make
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: of that. But let's have a convicted felon who is
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: charged with again, not charged with, convicted on federal charges
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: of bribery and attempted extortion. I'd like to hear his
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: story about his experience with cell phones in prison.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: Does he make any good points?
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: No? I guess if you're looking for an inside scoop
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: on the underground economy of prisons, then you can do
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: so through this piece. But you'll be more entertained by
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: watching the wire or you know some other.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: So you're saying it's not really relatable to the average person.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Not relatable, and like, why are you giving a voice
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: to a convicted person who you know misused the public's trust?
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: Come on, Wall Street Journal.
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: Well that seems to happen a lot with Cincinnati Democrats,
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: remember Jerry Springer.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: Like you raised some valid points, Ben, Come on, guys,
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: what are we doing here? There's nobody else that can
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: talk to you about phone addiction? Oh, I'm done, just done, right,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: the weirdest piece I've ever written read in my life.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: It's kind of like, you know how going to prison
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: taught me about overeating? Like I just don't know that
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: there's meat on that bone pun intended. Let's take a
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: quick break for the rest of the day, and we'll
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: come up with a list of people better to talk
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: to about phone addiction for tomorrow's show.