Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | March 9, 2024 | UFC 299 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | March 9, 2024 | UFC 299 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
All systems going clear the left. Oh baby, we're back talking fights.
0:38
UFC two ninety nine fourteen fights, two five rounders. Only one wait,
0:44
miss c j Bergar. Everyone already weighed in missed by one pounds, so
0:47
that fight will be good. Should keep all fourteen fights as long as we
0:51
don't have a Rosas Junior or something pull out after lock time. I'm not
0:55
going to talk that into existence, So appreciate everyone hanging out like always.
0:59
I know a lot of people watch on playback. You'all watch the live though.
1:03
You get a little bonus. We are doing a monthly giveaway. I
1:07
want to make sure I get the name right from a member. I want
1:08
to say I have six roles. Let me get it for sure, right,
1:12
I have six roles? That is correct. He's a member shipination dot
1:17
Com wanting to give away one to the people for this big MMA UFC two
1:21
ninety nine cards. So if you're not a member and you're in YouTube chat
1:25
right now, just put YouTube chat. Why you why do you think you
1:29
deserve that membership, how would you use it? Et cetera. Stuff like
1:32
that. We will pick a winner toward the end of the show. But
1:34
again, shout out to you. I have six roles, three monthly membership
1:38
for the people, and no better time to check out what we have to
1:42
offer. PGA Showdown, Best in the Business, MMA, this weekend,
1:46
NASCAR, Great NASCAR team the game. I know he's watching this, Mama
1:49
Show, Shout out to you. MMA Saturdays, NASCAR Sundays, NBA.
1:53
Of course still a full force MLB will be here before you know. It's
1:57
no better time jump over ship the nation. Plenty of options to try.
2:01
We have weekly, monthly, six month, and annual packages. And if
2:06
you use that promo code Hoop fifteen, you get even cheaper fifteen percent off
2:09
any of those packages fifty eight dollars a month if you use that code Hoop
2:14
fifteen for all the sports. For discord access projections, best ownership in the
2:19
industry from MMA for our guy Big Marley, and we'll actually show you a
2:23
little bit of what we offer premium. We'll show you a little tier rankings,
2:27
a fight breakedown on the slate, plan, fight rankings, et cetera.
2:30
Not going to show you the core reports, but we'll get into that
2:32
in the set. Show you what we do I'll offer in the MMA streets.
2:37
Throw it to my man, Big Marley, it's been long enough.
2:38
How you doing on this Friday morning? Afternoon? It's afternoon by you.
2:43
I'm good, man. I already had my workout working on the fight rankings
2:46
right now. Just cracked a nooner for this show because I'm excited for this
2:51
card. We got fourteen fights, which is awesome for DFS. But it's
2:54
a great card, man, I can't wait to watch it. Definitely worth
2:58
the money. Anytimeton Poier is a co main event, you know it's gonna
3:01
be a banger card, so I can't wait. Oh man, this kid
3:05
is so so good, like maybe even better than three hundred. I don't
3:08
know, it's pretty close. It's i mean, the main card, especially
3:12
like Blake. Do you think so? You think it's pretty close. I
3:15
think I'm more excited for it, but maybe because it's closer. But yeah,
3:19
I mean, man, this card is so good like RDA, gam
3:22
Rock buried pretty much, the prelims, Cutilabo Linz like so many bangers throughout
3:27
this card, and it's fun for DFS. I feel pretty good the fights.
3:30
I want to target the fights. I don't where to get leverage where
3:32
not to so I'm very pumped for for sure, Shark sit here, what's
3:36
going on? Shark? Eric our NASCAR guy. Let's have a big weekend.
3:39
My brother Tyler, what's going on? Tyler? I hope you're doing
3:43
well. Bring the noise, appreciate that camera. Bro in here, Dakota
3:46
in here as well, Jake our Man, Sagey, Jasmin in here,
3:50
all the people in here. Hope you all doing well, and we do
3:53
appreciate the support. Before we go fight by fight though, time to show
3:57
you a little bit what we offer for MMA. We don't do this enough.
4:00
So right here on the projections tab we have it all loaded. Names
4:04
by salary, projection, ownership, point per dollar. You can sort it
4:08
by projection, can sort it by ownership. If you want to download a
4:12
CSB, you can do that, upload it elsewhere, can sort by point
4:15
per dollar. And again big thing owner or an MMA is ownership. We'll
4:20
go through this. This is adjusted. If Marley thinks there should be changes,
4:24
like, we'll talk through it. I think Benoi probably becomes a little
4:28
higher than forty four percent. Sometimes Marley does change it. Throughout. Cheets
4:31
has been tracking ownership spend the best in the industry since we've had it,
4:34
though huge shoutout to Big Marley and ownership again huge in MMA. It's the
4:39
most important thing. It's like Showdown NBA, Showdown NFL. There's only so
4:45
many combinations, with only so many fighters. Ownership being unique, getting off
4:48
some popular bills, etc. Is important. So we have ownership. We
4:53
have projections right there, can download as a CSB. Next thing Core report.
4:57
I'm not going to click it yet because I do know Big Marley's core
4:59
is up there, but it's three core plays for a GPP for myself for
5:03
Big Marley that we have FanDuel Cash, FanDuel DK cash three GPP or three
5:10
core plays there and then a FanDuel made GPP corps as well. Prize pools
5:14
are awful, but we do have that. If you are on the Fangel
5:16
streets again, you got to be a member to check that out. Slate
5:19
plan this is where I go break down every single fight. I only put
5:24
down one I'm not gonna give. I can't give it to the people,
5:27
the people that pay I cannot give the whole slate plan. People will pause
5:30
it, et cetera. But this first fight of the night, you can
5:33
get it. If you want to pause it, get a little sniffet of
5:36
what my breakdown is. We'll touch on this though Rosewood. You can see
5:40
right there, I had both of them tagg this overweight, this is a
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core. If this has are If it's a core play for me, I'll
5:46
take this instead of green, it'll be blue. If it's underweight, I'll
5:50
take yellow for the fighters, and if it's a fade, I'll take fade.
5:54
I try and make this like a twenty entry Max thing. They used
5:57
to have a great three dollars twenty entry max. I think is a good
6:00
MM sport. Playing one team is very tough. So you get my breakdowns,
6:03
my tags on all the fights. Going over to Big Marley's fight rankings,
6:09
he does the same thing, something similar. He does a shorter breakdown.
6:12
He gives a prediction all that I can't give it to all. There
6:15
we go, so who's gonna win, the exact method, which round and
6:18
the method he thinks they will win, and then he ranks them. So
6:23
these stars right here, Marley mentions it a lot fighter with confidence. So
6:27
the higher the stars, five star means it's his favorite fight. You cannot
6:30
get better than five stars. Four stars is still a good fight you want
6:32
to target. Now, if there's a two star Wiser was one up there.
6:35
That means he doesn't like it as much. Not only does he rank
6:40
the fights in terms of fight environment to one star, two star, three
6:43
star, four star, five star, he then puts in the arrows for
6:46
each fighter how much interest in them. So right here, as you can
6:48
see, out of six total per fight, he has five star for almabayav
6:54
one for Vergara, So that's saying he likes the fight environment four star,
6:58
but he just likes the Alma Baia Sidegara side. So it's very easy to
7:00
read a nice snippet breakdown right there, slate plan fight rankings. I think
7:05
that's the best in the business right here. Little bias on both sides here,
7:10
but you get Marley's thoughts, you get my thoughts. We're targeting fights.
7:14
You need ownership. It's not more so I think this guy's gonna win
7:16
at least how I play MMA, it's I think this guy fight's gonna score.
7:19
Well, how do I build a roster When I win? I share
7:23
with as little as pop little people as possible, and I want upside.
7:27
So that's the fight rankings done by Big Marley. That'll all be up tier
7:30
rankings almost there then we'll get into the fights. Only did the upper tier,
7:34
but this is similar what we have, like an an NBA slate plan
7:38
upper tier, mid tier, lower tier builds eighty and six hundred and above
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seventy seven hundred and eighty five hundred, seventy six hundred or less. I
7:46
rank them in order my favorites. A little snippet and why my notes are
7:49
right here. That's a very easy place if you need a value seventy six
7:53
hundred or less fill in the lineup. You can see my favorites right there,
7:57
as well as slate plan fight rankings and slate info. This is free.
8:01
This is just the basic Vegas props. They're way CLASSICC even if you're
8:03
not a member. You can hop in check that out. This is updated
8:07
as well. Anything to add to that Big Marley Again, everything will be
8:11
up after the show. All my fights are done. But I like talking
8:15
to you because I make some changes throughout. But man, I mean you're
8:18
talking fifty eight dollars a month for every single sport. You can argue this
8:22
to be fifty eight dollars a month and some places are close to that.
8:26
So hey, not hating on anything. I think we have the best MMA
8:30
cont the industry. Ownership's the most important and shout out to you. I'm
8:33
not taking any credit for that. You are great there, So yeah,
8:35
anything on that or then we'll get fight by fight. No man, great
8:39
breakdown of the site, and it's really just extra. But you get all
8:43
the big sports NFL, you get PGA with the best guys around, so
8:46
there's no reason not to try it out. We're giving away a free one
8:50
on the show, so if you haven't heard already, put in a reason
8:54
why you want the free membership and we'll pick one at the end of the
8:56
show. Yeah, a good breakdown of it. Cannot wait for it,
9:00
hopefully, I mean, I'm pretty sure we'll see some ship at logos at
9:03
the top. Yeah, come into Saturday. Yeah, it's a good card.
9:05
I'm pumped for it. We're time to make some money though. Hit
9:09
that, like hit that, subscribe, appreciate everyone watching live, watching on
9:11
playback as always, and again we will be giving away a monthly membership somewhere
9:16
near the end of the show one of the main card fights, probably one
9:18
of the starts there. We'll give it away in chat. So if you're
9:22
not a member, put in chat why you why you want one. Let's
9:24
get going the first fight of the nights. You kind of got a glimpse
9:28
if you saw my breakdown, if you saw Marley's breakdown, Marina Morose,
9:31
Joeanne Wood nine thousand for Moros, seventy two hundred for Wood, Moros minus
9:37
two thirty Calderwood, or would Joanne Wood excuse me, plus one ninety five
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on the way back. This fight's plus one sixty to finish all the finish
9:46
equity on the Moro side at plus one seventy though would plus one thousand inside
9:52
the distance. So a little rematch from twenty fifteen, which was Moros's UFC
9:56
debut first round armbar score ninety five, and that one didn't even secure a
10:01
takedown, I mean pulled guard got the submission. I like this fight is
10:07
you can see what I had on my slate plan. You look at ownership
10:11
in this fight, Moro's has to be low owned. So what we have
10:13
this fight at ownership Moro's fourteen percent, Joanne Wood twelve percent. There's no
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way people can get to Moreau's when when lass Aint denis one hundred less,
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shohn O'Malley's two hundred more dispains three hundred. More like those three right there
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are gonna all be forty percent plus. The other guys like a Kyler Phillips
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and Moreau is a Macy barber in this range all gonna be low owned.
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And she's by far my favorite of those three I just mentioned. I think
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she has the most upside. She's taken some money on the money line,
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She's taken some money on the inside. The distance prop open plus three hundred
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now all the way down to plus one seventy already beat her once in round
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one. I mean, man, if Morose wins at nine K, there's
10:56
definitely finishing upside there at low ownership. Then the side. I always enjoy
11:01
playing Wood because she's usually a pretty big dog, so she's pretty cheap,
11:05
and she just throws a ton of She's always doing something six point nine three
11:09
significant strikes per minute, one point five to seven takedowns per fifteen. I
11:13
will say, well, she hasn't scored less than eighty nine in any of
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her eight USC wins as well, so if she wins, she scores,
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she's getting up there in age. She did mention this is a retirement fight
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as well. Words you don't usually like to hear, but man, woman's
11:28
mma, it's almost always dog or pass. It feels like if Wood wins,
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I think it's gonna be on the optimal at least as a good shot
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with the volume she throws. Rose says finishing upside plus one seventy, I'll
11:39
throw it to you. But yeah, this fight's gonna be low owned.
11:41
I'm gonna be overweight on this one. Hope we get optim performance to start
11:46
it off. Yeah, I'm I kind of like this one as well,
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especially because it's it shouldn't get too much ownership. Like you mentioned, Moro's
11:54
is kind of in there with a bunch of killers where it's really just hard
11:58
to get to her. But she did already finish would in the first round.
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And Wood has been submitted five times in her career, all five were
12:07
in the first round. So there's a couple props I like on this fight
12:13
as well, because I do think that Wood just doesn't really eat shots as
12:18
well anymore. She wears it a lot more on her face as too,
12:22
and then once someone grabs a hold of a submission, she kind of looks
12:26
for her way out, and I think if things go bad for her early
12:28
in this fight, she probably gets submitted, and Rose by submission in round
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one at least before we started was plus six point fifty. I think that's
12:37
a pretty good number right there. And then Rose by submission period is plus
12:41
three thirty. So I like both of those. But we have that the
12:46
fight is supposed to go the distance. What do we have like minus two
12:50
hundred almost that the fight is supposed to go to decision, And if that's
12:54
the case, give me would all day at this line. I think I
12:58
would maybe even favor her slightly if I knew this was gonna go all three
13:01
rounds. The worry, I mean not to worry. I guess the issue
13:03
is that would this is gonna be her retirement fight, and those rarely work
13:07
out well for fighters when they're up there in age. So that's kind of
13:13
why I think Moro's gonna get the submission. That's my ultimate pick. Moro's
13:16
by submission in round one, and since the ownership is not going to be
13:20
there, I think even if she gets you know, ninety eight ninety nine
13:26
points, and maybe that's not enough, but at the ownership I'm kind of
13:30
willing to take those chances. So I'll be overweight to Moros as well,
13:33
but like I mentioned, man, I would much rather have a Wood ticket
13:37
if this was going to go the distance, and she's never scored less than
13:39
eighty nine and any of her wins. She scored one hundred and five in
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her last Decision win, which is gonna break the slate if she can do
13:46
anything near that, So I definitely want to be overweight to Wood as well.
13:48
I put this as a three star because I wanted to put it as
13:54
a four star, but the ownership's not gonna be there, so I feel
13:56
like three star is gonna get us overweight enough. But I'm really close to
13:58
a four star. I could see me being fairly heavy on this fight,
14:03
overweight to both sides. But Moro's by submission by submission in round one is
14:07
the ultimate pick. Some other props I like would by decision plus two to
14:11
seventy five. And then there's there's this thing on DraftKings where you can go
14:18
to I don't even remember which tab it's under, but the outcome is Joe
14:22
Anne would buy decision or Marina Rose by submission. You can get that at
14:26
even money. I like that. I think that heads more than half the
14:28
time. And then moneyline decision only, which means it's a push if there's
14:35
a finish from either side. But Joe Anne would plus one sixty five on
14:39
that bunch of props. I like, on this fight should be a good
14:41
one to start off the card. But if nobody's gonna have it, let
14:43
me get overweight and hopefully we can start off with a banger. Oh yeah,
14:46
I mean we're both in agreement there. I think there's two women's fights
14:50
on the card, both on favor to go the distance, Macy Barber the
14:54
other one. I think just naturally women's fights are lower owned. I think
14:56
there's meritive be sided. Like first fight on the is lower owned for people
15:01
that just make a couple of lineups, like they don't want to be dead.
15:03
They see the inside of the distance. Prop is supposed to go to
15:05
decisions, so like, yeah, first fight of the night, woman's MMA
15:09
supposed to go to decision. It just can't get ownership. I mean,
15:13
man would Yeah, if Wood wins, probably, Like I feel good about
15:18
eighty five, even even eighty five plus to start the card at seventy two
15:20
hundred, I would totally feel fine with. And if that's not optimal,
15:24
you know, that's not the reason you're not making money. And then yeah,
15:28
Marina Moro is like she just fourteen percent owned, already has a first
15:31
round submission win, has taken plus three hundred down a plus one seventy inside
15:35
the distance. I'm gonna be overweight fourteen and twelve percent. I put it
15:39
in the slave plan. We did. Like I said, we got that
15:41
little snippet if you want to pause it. I said, it's the most
15:43
overlooked fight that I've interest in. We're looking at like Macy Barber, We're
15:46
looking at Michelle Pereira. Think's fine. Who's the other one in that nine
15:50
k range? Kyler Phillips maybe yeah, Kyler Phillips, Yeah. Like I
15:54
like Moreau's way more than Macy Barber and Kyler Phillips personally, So she'll be
16:00
where I'll go to get different up top and chalk your lineups. I like
16:03
wood down. Mo spend a lot of time on women's MMA first fight.
16:07
I'll be fighting it, though, and I hope it's optimal. I will
16:08
say that Moro's to win a decision is like even money. So they're saying
16:12
that happens fifty percent of the time, and if Moros wins a decision.
16:15
That's how this fight does not make it onto the opp lineup. So that's
16:18
the worry. We said a lot of good things, but that's definitely the
16:21
worry. And it's very possible. Yeah, I mean we said at it's
16:23
twelve percent and fourth like one of the lower owned total combination and ownerships on
16:29
the fight too. So this is a hot take, I guess, probably
16:32
compared to what people are gonna do being overweight, I guess is a hot
16:34
take. But yeah, definitely this fight can bus. There's no doubt about
16:37
that. Not find that fight'll let's keep it rolling. Asu Almabai. If
16:41
the biggest favorite on the card takes down c J. Viergara minus five to
16:45
seventy five is Alma Baja plus four to twenty five on the way back is
16:49
CJ. Again CJ the only one to miss weight by one pound. Fight
16:53
should be good to go. I think like thirty percent fine for the purse,
16:57
minus won sixty five for the this fight to finish most of that on
17:00
the Almabi side minus won thirty five inside the distance CJ Bergara plus six seventy
17:07
five ownership in this one. So Alma by the highest price fighter on the
17:11
card thirty one percent. We have CJ lowest price on the card. We
17:15
have the lowest owned at four percent. I mean, this one's pretty easy
17:18
for me. I'll be playing Almabia and teams I can get them minus won
17:22
thirty five inside the distance primary wrestler. I mean, I guess I'll throw
17:26
to you on this like I'm not playing CJ. I like Almabaia. I'm
17:30
not gonna jam Almabaia, but like this, Spain's gonna be higher on when
17:33
Wi Saintani is gonna be higher on Sean O'Malley's probably gonna be higher owned.
17:37
So even as the biggest favorite expected to finish as a primary wrestler like low
17:41
thirty percent, not crazy by any means. So I like him like Joanne
17:47
Wood can get you there, Ola Jay check, there's a knife long enough
17:49
live dogs at Pourier or Cheeto win. There's way more options to get up
17:55
here. So I'll be playing some ALMABAIV. I'm not gonna like force myself
17:59
to get over thirty or like under thirty. I'm good with whatever I get.
18:03
But he has his he can put up a loutedit client scores last week,
18:06
and you absolutely need him I mean, I'm not gonna say most upside
18:11
on the card, but i'd probably say ben Why has the most upside with
18:15
that being five rounds, but I think he has the most three round upside
18:18
in this fight. Yeah, I'll throw it to you. But does CJ
18:21
get up when he gets taken down, because that's when the real ceiling hits.
18:26
If Almabia can get twelve of them and just chain them, or does
18:29
Bergara lay in his back and you're only getting like three to four in a
18:32
decision? Man, I feel like Almabiv wouldn't be willing to chain wrestle that
18:37
much because I think he could strike in this matchup if he wanted to.
18:41
I think a striking match is close between these two, but that's what Varghara
18:45
needs to win. But the only way he's gonna score well would be a
18:48
knockout. I don't want to really bank on that happening. And if he
18:52
does win a striking based decision, he might not even ten X's sixty seven
18:56
hundred dollars salary. So I think I'm just gonna x Virgera out of my
19:00
player pool, not gonna use any of him. But yeah, I'm abaya.
19:03
I mean the issue is ninety five hundred dollars. He's also got a
19:06
lot of people priced below him that could outscore him. But he is projected
19:11
to get a submission in this fight, And even if he does go all
19:15
fifteen minutes, if he's not getting twelve takedowns, I would still think he's
19:18
getting three or four and maybe getting ten plus minutes of control time can lay
19:22
in some ground strikes and possibly get there. But the ceilings on this card
19:27
is tough. Like there's so many high ceilings on this card, and if
19:30
I don't have to have them, I'm fine not getting them because there's a
19:33
lot of people that I could pay down, you know, a few hundred
19:36
dollars less for if that's what I need to do on this card. So
19:38
I'm not sure. I built maybe ten or so hand built lineups, and
19:41
I do have some Almabayev. I'm guessing I'll end up being overweight or around
19:48
the field on him, would be my guess. But my pick is for
19:51
him to get a submission at some point in this fight. The earlier the
19:55
better, probably just because I don't think he would be a guy that's getting
19:56
ten plus ten plus takedowns. Okay, yeah, fair enough that I'll probably
20:03
be again around the field. I think like there's other fights I care more
20:06
about, Like I want to get dialed in for my script, and like
20:08
if I had twenty percent Almabia and I liked everything else, sure, by
20:12
forty percent Almabi IV and I liked everything, I'd also be totally fine with
20:17
that. Like he's the highest priced guy, like Ben was, Saint Denis
20:19
in a vacuum looks better to me. There's still like Gamrock, who's gonna
20:23
be maybe like ten percent maybe lower own for one hundred less with wrestling upside
20:27
too, I do prefer Alma Biah in a vacuum there, but the upper
20:32
tier, I guess I'm there's multiple guys where I'm totally fine with uh,
20:36
depending on where I am with salary, and I'd be fine dropping. I'd
20:41
like, I will say even so Almabaiev. Just say a lineup leaves zero
20:44
with ALMABIAV. I guess this is a great transition. Right in the next
20:48
fight Rebellus to Spain, Josh Parisian ninety three hundred is to Spain ninety five
20:52
hundreds. Alma Bajav, You're gonna see lineups that leave two hundred, and
20:56
it's still more chalky, more dupes with it of Spain than almy of Because
21:00
all right, we'll get right there. He's minus three forty Parisians plus two
21:03
eighty ninety three hundred is to Spain. Sixty nine hundred is Parisian. This
21:08
fight's minus fourteen hundred to finish. The Spain's minus two ninety five in round
21:12
one mine or no excuse me, minus two ninety five inside the distance,
21:17
minus two forty in round one Parisian on the other side, plus three hundred
21:22
inside the distance, which isn't bad at all. And then we go to
21:26
the ownership in this fight. The Spain we have at forty one percent,
21:30
and I again, I wouldn't even be surprised if it was a little higher
21:33
on right there. And then Josh, Persian we have at eight percent.
21:37
Now I'll throw it to you on this Actually I'll give a couple thoughts.
21:40
So this Spain. I mean, if you haven't seen this guy fight his
21:42
last three fights, four seconds, three seconds, twelve seconds. That's the
21:48
length of time it took him to knock out his opponent. Dude to six
21:51
seven eighty seven inch reach, which is the UFC. The longest in UFC
21:56
history background in taekwondo, but he's only four to zero. Is a pro
22:00
like he has fought cans, has had nothing, He hasn't had to go
22:04
through any adversity Josh Friesan's cheeks. It's pretty obvious what the USC is doing,
22:08
Like, oh, all right, who can this Spain look really good
22:11
against? Let's game a slow plotting. I guess the dude's men in every
22:15
single area, like Parisian isn't really scary. However, if Presian wins this
22:21
fight, it's because this Spain's just a total fraud and like maybe he gets
22:26
taken down, has nothing off his back, maybe gases after one minute.
22:30
I mean this line open minus five hundred, it's now minus three forty.
22:33
Money has come in on the Persian side. What I know I'm gonna do
22:37
in this fight. I'm definitely gonna be a donkey and play a good amount
22:38
of to Spain, like minus two forty in round one. Prisian stinks.
22:42
The first round win bonus is definitely in play. I'm definitely eating that chalk
22:48
Josh Friesian though at eight percent, I mean, they might be the easiest
22:51
overweight take on the slate for me when he wins, I just don't see
22:55
how he's not on the optimal like minus fourteen hundred minus two eighty five under
23:00
round one. Maybe this Spain's just a total fraud. Pregon survives his best
23:04
shots, maybe gets a takedown. I just think at plus two seventy,
23:08
it's about what twenty seven percent win equity. I think twenty five of that
23:14
is probably gonna be optimal. So right there, you're looking at three x
23:18
the field if you're going off of just numbers in logic like you do with
23:22
some of your stuff. Yeah, I'm probably gonna be more overweight to Presian
23:25
than this Spain. But it's a great fight to target and I will have
23:27
a ton of it. So that's what I got. What about you?
23:30
Yeah, I mean this is what everyone says, and I agree. The
23:33
pick is the Spain. He's gonna get carted off when this Dain touches him.
23:37
But when if Parisian wins, I mean, you have a chance at
23:41
solo ship in a lot of money, and if he wins, it feels
23:44
like it has to be optimal. So yeah, I already talked in this
23:45
one. De Spain's the pick first round knockout, I will be more overweight
23:49
to Presian at this ownership. Yeah, I'm gonna load up on it.
23:55
I mean to Spain, he's the type of fighter I like to fade.
23:59
You know, his last fights are combined nineteen seconds. Like we learned that
24:02
he can hit hard. But the fight before that, it was like the
24:07
very end of the first round, he didn't look all that great leading up
24:11
to it. It was his debut. So like, this guy is really
24:14
green in the sport. He's like an Olympic Taekwon do striker. So like,
24:19
I wouldn't expect anything on the ground from this guy at all. And
24:22
if if this fight makes it out of the first round, he's off the
24:26
optimal lineup unless he's getting multiple knockdowns along the way. Because if it's a
24:30
second rounder, let's give him like ten strikes, it's probably all. He's
24:33
gonna have. One knockdown, no takedowns. That's just not gonna be enough.
24:40
So I'm gonna be heavy on him. But at the same time,
24:42
my first lineup that I built I had, I had him in it,
24:47
but I had a little bit of money left over. So I've built the
24:48
same lineup and I put Almabaya in it as well, So I'm gonna be
24:52
similar to those two with my ownership. I might duplicate a lot of their
24:56
lineups. But man, I definitely worry about this guy, A four and
25:03
oh guy who's got like five minutes a total fight time. Parsian's got power
25:07
too. I don't really know what this guy's I mean, not power.
25:11
I wouldn't say Priest has power, but against like, no, he he
25:14
weighs a lot and he'll be throwing, So all those guys have power.
25:17
But yeah, I know he's a big boy. But I mean, if
25:21
Precian gets one takedown, I don't know that De Spain has anything to offer
25:26
off his back, and I don't know that he can get up. And
25:27
if Parisian wins this fight, I think he breaks the slate. He has
25:30
like one hundred and twenty point upside, whereas to Spain, for him to
25:34
get one hundred and twenty points, he needs a knockout in the first sixty
25:37
seconds, which I mean, shit, what are the odds of him getting
25:41
that? To be honest, I wouldn't mind looking that up, to be
25:44
honest, uh, and then just matching that or at least getting you know
25:48
a minimum of that in my lineups, because a sixty second knockout puts him
25:52
on the optimal lineup, but sixty one second knockout, he's still got to
25:57
compete with the other people. Yeah, not the worse, but you're you
26:02
are a little rattled if you get the sixty one. Don't miss it by
26:04
one for sure. So I think I'm I'm the same as you. I'm
26:07
gonna have a lot of de Spain, and I would rather have him in
26:11
a single entry, I think. But I'm gonna have more leverage to the
26:15
Parisian side if I If I have fifteen percent Parisian, that puts me almost
26:18
double the field or so. So I'm definitely cool with that. Where you'd
26:22
have to get like eighty five percent to double the field on De Spain,
26:26
which is I'm not gonna do that. Yeah, I will say in the
26:29
single untry stuff, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see even more of
26:30
a gap, especially like the five fifty five and stuff like that, Like
26:34
this Spain, I could be sixty percent preging could be like eight like at
26:38
those numbers, whereas like we had Latto, we have like forty two eight
26:41
or whatever. I think you'll see lower in the latto, and I think
26:45
guys like Benoa and de Spain will be even higher in the single entry stuff,
26:48
and I think Parisian probably will be higher. Like again, it feels
26:52
like a sharp game. I think it's sharp, so I guess I'm saying
26:56
it like that. Maybe it's not sharp when Present gets like four, but
26:59
the average plays like if Sheets was in here, I think he'd be talking
27:02
about Parisian talking about Pourier. I do think those plays are a little higher
27:06
owned in the like the five point fifty five and stuff, But I think
27:10
the ben Waas and the the Sveins could be like fifteen to twenty percent higher
27:14
than you see in the flagship as well. So I kind of said that
27:18
wrong. Like a single entry contest, Yeah, I don't really care.
27:22
I guess which one of them is in there. I'm probably gonna have one
27:23
of them though, for sure. But I'm saying, like if I was
27:26
just gonna make one lineup only on the whole card. Yeah, let me
27:29
get to SPAINI in there because I don't want it to be over on the
27:32
third Friday night when Parsian scores two points or something like that I will probably
27:36
be twenty lineups and then I'm picking any one of them for my single entry.
27:41
Yeah, I wouldn't be against using a presion there just to get different.
27:44
Yeah, No, for sure, Like my night will probably be over
27:45
after call there, it won't be over over because I play a lot of
27:49
lineups. That's what I I think the best way to go MMA is.
27:52
But I'll have a lot of rose would fight and it'll probably be a morose
27:56
decision and I'll be holding onto a couple of strings. So I mean great
28:00
fights Atario though minus fourteen hundred in a tier of its own and inside the
28:03
distance prop under one and a half minus two to eighty five, Like one
28:07
of these fighters is probably optimal. I'm not necessary. I'm not gonna make
28:11
a rule to have at least one of them in all my lineups. I
28:15
put the rule. It's in the slave plan. It's not a hard rule
28:18
by any means, but at least two of that fights, the Linz fights,
28:23
I'll made the Blades, and then Pourier and Ben was Saint any those
28:26
are my four favorite fights, so I want at least two fighters of those
28:30
eight. And again that's that rule is not going to have you like on
28:33
a huge narrow path by any means. I just know I want exposure to
28:37
those fights, at least two of them. I'll have probably three out of
28:41
four of them in some fights as well. But yeah, I missed that
28:44
three dollars twenty entry max two man. So I developed the slate plan.
28:48
I thought it was the perfect contest there. Still go to three dollars fifty
28:51
one to fifty max. THO still think you can put twenty teams in there
28:53
if you want. Some people put one hundred and fifty in their last like
28:56
twenty or thirty are pretty bad teams. That's what I started, not one
29:00
fifty as much I realized as I got later in my script. So you
29:03
can still put twenty in that. I think there's a nice one dollar out
29:07
there too, like the MMA or like the mme in MMA though, what's
29:11
going on? Or appreciate the support I see my man run me in here
29:15
as well, Sam's in here. Hope y'all do it well ady watching.
29:18
Appreciate that, like that subscribe and that support as always, keep it rolling.
29:23
Next fight plenty to talk about thirty minutes and I'll pick it up a
29:26
little bit. Michelle Pereira, Michael oloj check. Minus one forty is Peerra,
29:30
plus one twenty is Michael Oh. This fight is minus one seventy five
29:34
to finish Peyra plus one thirty Michael Oh, plus two fifty Perera is gonna
29:40
be pretty We haven't at twenty two percent, So Perera twenty two percent of
29:44
eighty seven hundred Michael Oh fifteen percent. I wouldn't be surprised if Pereyer was
29:49
a little lower on than twenty two, just because of his money line,
29:52
Like minus one forty at eighty seven hundred isn't great, But you do see
29:56
that plus one thirty inside the distance prop which makes sense. Maybe he's in
30:00
the low twenties. I mean at this ownership, and even as a pick
30:04
for me, I'm taking Michael Loh, I think he's gonna be able to
30:07
keep it on the feed for the most part. I think Pereira he's mixed
30:11
in wrestling a little more as of late. I just don't know if he
30:14
has the card youo to wrestle for fifteen Wentz on the feet man, Michael
30:17
always gonna be plotting forward, ripping to the body combinations, think get dog
30:22
money. I think it's more of a coin flip than this. So give
30:25
me the dog, give me the twelve hundred savings, and Michael oh Pereira
30:29
twenty two percent probably will be a little underweight to that. I thought he
30:33
was gonna be maybe like a little higher teams, and I could use him
30:37
in lineups where I'm playing more Chalky fighters. Jack Doll I think will be
30:41
higher own right in that range. I think Linz will be higher, or
30:44
a Hutolabo will be higher on in that range. Only two hundred more is
30:48
ben Wah. So I think he'll be overlooked a bit, and I'll play
30:51
him in chalk your lineups, But Michael Low might preferred play for sure,
30:53
what do you what do you got? Yeah, ownership wise, maybe i'd
30:56
take a little bit away from him and throw a little bit more on to
31:00
Saint Denis later. I could definitely see that as well. But yeah,
31:03
I'm in agreement. I would rather have the underdog in this one. Michael
31:08
Low. He's got one crappy win score on his call on his fight log,
31:12
but he's got six wins over one hundred points. He's even got one
31:17
hundred and forty eight or And this is the guy that's just gonna be pressuring
31:21
forward, throwing bombs, and I think he's kind of a live to be
31:23
landing takedowns in this one because Pereira is he's got a lot of lateral movement
31:29
and he's kind of hard to read. And if if Michae Low can't just
31:33
walk him down, I think he's gonna try and clem clinch him up,
31:36
get him against the cage, and then maybe hunt for some takedowns there.
31:38
And I think he could do some work in top control. So I think
31:41
the takedowns are kind of even in this one. I think the knockout is
31:45
kind of even in this one. So I would just rather have the underdog
31:49
in eighty seven. Even if Pereira does get a knockout, like I don't
31:55
know, he's probably got Elite land some takedowns as well. If it's not
31:57
in the first round. If it's like a third round knockout, I don't
32:00
know that Pereira is gonna get there, but he can't throws the volume leading
32:04
up to it. But we're in the big cage. He's gonna be dancing
32:07
around a lot. Eighty seven hundreds just allowed to pay. So I would
32:10
rather go underweight to him get other favorites that I like more, and then
32:15
Michael Oh is an underdog. I can see me being overweight on I don't
32:17
feel good about him scoring well in this fight, but he's an underdog who
32:22
I think is alive, who does have a high ceiling, so I'll get
32:24
some leverage to him and hopefully he can pull it out. I'm with you,
32:29
like this is a fight. It's favorite to finish at minus one seventy
32:30
five better in some other spots, but I am a little hesitant on this
32:35
fight score Like, I do think Pereira is gonna be bouncing on the outside,
32:37
try and stick and move with the jab, like not getting long combinations
32:42
in a phone booth with Michael Oh. I don't think that's his best path
32:45
to victory. And if he does, like hold him against the fence a
32:47
bit or try and Nixon takedowns. Yeah, like a second even third round
32:52
knockout probably not enough for Pereira. That's why I prefer Michael Oh. Like
32:55
any win, even eighty five, you're not completely dead, still good win
33:00
or inside the distance profit two fifty for the price. Yeah, Pereira is
33:04
really just a ownership play and that's like if he's fifteen percent and chalk your
33:08
lineups. But I don't like him too much. Definitely preferred Michael Loh in
33:12
this one, so yeah, we're lockstep here. Michael Oh for the win
33:15
for me, throws good volume and man, I think he can finish Michelle
33:21
Prayer in this one. I'm saying second or third round, Nacho, So
33:22
give me mikey Oh in this one. We'll keep it rolling again. Appreciate
33:25
everyone hanging out. Hope you guys doing well, like fun, always appreciate
33:30
it. If you want to join us at the Nation, USC two ninety
33:32
nine, NBA Today, PGA Showdown, NASCAR Sunday, NHLMB will be here
33:39
before you know, it's head over to the Nation. All those wards projections,
33:43
ownership, core reports, slate plan, no better time, get in
33:46
Hoop fifteen gets you fifteen percent off any package, and of course get in
33:51
the discord if you do join. Next fight great one of targets Eon Kualaba,
33:57
Flipe A Lins minus one twenty five is to the plus one oh five
34:00
is Linz this fight minus five hundred to finish, quot Lava plus one hundred
34:07
inside the distance Felipe Lens plus one fifty. I mentioned this will be one
34:10
of the fights I'm jamming pretty heavy. Part of my rule of the four
34:15
as many qute lava fights are. Dude, some wild man in round one
34:19
take downs over four per fifteen minutes. He has power in his hands,
34:23
but if it gets to the second or third round, he falls off a
34:25
cliff. In terms of cardio, Lyn solid cardio can be a little slow
34:30
starter. So it's a pretty interesting fight. I mean qute lava round one,
34:34
Linds after that not a hot take by any means. In terms of
34:38
a pick, give me the guy that I think can fight fifteen minutes and
34:42
lens and what I like even more eighty four hundred seventy eight hundred build a
34:45
lineup, put li or put in QT lava, take qtlab out, plug
34:50
in Linz. I think leaving that six hundred plus is very viable. You're
34:53
looking at almost a coin flip. Both have a ton of upside. I'm
34:58
good leaving six hundred. I mean, even a thousand on this card I
35:01
think is definitely in place. So yeah, preferred side. Lin's not a
35:06
strong take. I want a lot of this fight, though, how do
35:07
you see it? Yeah, I'm on the other side of this one,
35:10
I like q Laba in this one, but I do agree. I mean,
35:14
most of his work is gonna come in the first round, whereas Linz
35:19
most of it would come later in the fight, I think, but even
35:21
the second round. Man, I might favorite Kulabo just because Lenz does not
35:23
push a pace that would really wear down q Lob and I think he would
35:28
just have to really take a first round beating an ion slows down from that
35:34
in order for him to come back. And if Lenz isn't gonna finish qu
35:37
Laba in the second round, I feel like qu Laba can do enough to
35:39
win on the scorecards twenty nine to twenty eight, and he can also land
35:43
ten plus takedowns in any given fight. But I do like him to get
35:46
a first round knockout. A first round knockout at eighty four hundred dollars I
35:51
like quite a bit. We also have it's almost a pick and fight.
35:53
It was a pick and fight like this morning. I think. So what
35:58
happens if Lenz closes as a slight favorite in this one is that that I
36:01
like? Yeah, I mean either way, but does Lenz like is there
36:07
a way he could be more owned because he really I don't think he has
36:10
the same type of ceiling as ku Laba. He did score me had a
36:15
quick win against osp that don't count, right, Yeah, But other than
36:19
like the ninety two in the decision, I could see him getting ninety or
36:22
something like that, which which would be solid at seventy eight hundred. But
36:27
I think he's more likely to score seventy than he is ninety. In my
36:30
opinion. Well, I just really don't care for Lenz that much, and
36:34
I think the ownership is kind of climbing and that's making me like him less.
36:37
So I'll be underweight to Lens overweight to Kulaba fair enough. I mean,
36:40
yeah, I'd so love Lens the ceiling. I think like ninety more
36:45
than seven minus won forty for under one and a half rounds. I guess
36:49
it's more of a bet against QT. Lava's like gas tank and then like
36:52
Linz would start to piece him up eventually finish him. I do get what
36:55
you're saying, though. The upside for for Q to Lava, like I
36:58
like the six hundred savings, knowing he can fight fifteen and being able to
37:02
drop down like that. If you go Bill Lili Mkutelaba. That leaves zero
37:07
and go to Linz. You could be talking like a fifty dupe all the
37:09
way down to like two or three, which you're talking lots of cheese in
37:14
that main flagshit. For sure. It's interesting though. If Linz closes the
37:17
favorite, I feel like he'd have to be higher owned. But again,
37:22
people are sharp nowadays, like people know where ownership game theory, et cetera.
37:27
It always comes back to the Matthew Semlesburger Jeremiah Wells fight. Wells was
37:30
eighty four hundred, Semmalsberger was seventy eight. I think they closed like a
37:35
coin flip or something, and Wells was higher owned at sevent eighty four compared
37:38
to seventy eight, and I it had when people just thinking everyone would go
37:43
to the other side and one fifty matchers like obviously a lot of one fifty
37:47
matches in the streets this week as well. So yeah, I guess talking
37:51
in circles, I'm still picking Lens. But again, if I had fifty
37:53
percent qutal Laba and I love my whole script and thirty percent Linz, like
37:58
I'm totally good with that. Someone's I think someone scores well in this fight,
38:01
I just prefer the savings the guy that can fight longer. But definitely
38:06
keeping uh an eye on this line. I think it'll probably close somewhere around
38:08
where it does now though Minus won twenty five. And I also want to
38:13
throw in like Culaba went three rounds with Dustin Jacoby. It was a draw,
38:17
but he scored eighty nine points in a draw without his win bonus.
38:21
There were eighty points in the round. Ever score eighty nine points like without
38:24
a win bonus, Like he's scored eighty in the first round. He got
38:29
all those takedowns, all that Dakobe kept getting up, he kept dumping them,
38:32
but he still made it the distance. And I just think like he's
38:36
got that in him. Lenz does not have that in him. And if
38:38
he's able to do that in this fight, I don't think Linz. I
38:43
just don't agree with the line. I think you Lobbys should be a little
38:45
bit of a favorite in this one. I can't justify Linz being a favorite
38:47
in this fight. Yeah, no, a cute labis Mine's won twenty five.
38:51
Lenz is one oh five, so he's a small favorite. But I
38:53
Yoch, you're saying for sure, it's a great fight to target. It'll
38:57
be the the Spain fight, this fight, Nada Blades, Pourier, Saintani.
39:01
My favorite four fights on the card, and I'll have a decent bit
39:05
of them. We'll keep a rolling plenty of fights to talk about. Fourteen
39:07
fights. This is my least favorite fight on the card. Kyler Phillips,
39:10
Pedro Muno's minus two zero four for Phillips, plus one seventy four for Pedro.
39:15
This fights plus two hundred to finish Kyler Phillips plus three hundred inside the
39:20
distance Pedro Muno Muno's plus five point fifty. Looking at Phillips our ownership,
39:25
we have him at twelve percent. We have Peter Munoz at thirteen percent.
39:30
I mean, yeah, Pedro Munos doesn't get finished, doesn't get taken down.
39:36
Really, I think this fight stays on the feeds Pedro serv I mean,
39:39
I don't know it's gonna I think it's a pretty close split decision or
39:43
a decision. I'd pick Peter Munio's if I had to pick anybody. But
39:47
yeah, I mean, I'm fading this fight in DFS, so I don't
39:50
even know why I'm wasting my time. Yeah, I mean I agree.
39:53
I'm probably gonna fade Phillips just because ninety one hundred is a little bit too
39:58
much. I am picking him to win just because I think he's gonna be
40:00
the faster, more explosive, more well rounded fighter in this one, and
40:04
we'll do enough to win two rounds. But if he's not getting a finish,
40:07
I have a hard time seeing him score even ten X. But even
40:10
if he does score ten X, he's probably not making the optimal lineup.
40:14
So I'm just gonna want a hundred plus. Yeah, I don't care what
40:16
you want. A hunter plus on this car. And then Munos, I
40:20
think he's live to get a win. It's probably more likely to be a
40:24
decision which would score in my opinion, around ten x or more. That
40:29
could be enough, but he's more live, uh to break the slate with
40:34
a guillotine in my in my opinion, And if Phillips is going out there
40:37
looking for takedowns, Munos has one of the nastiest guillotines. And if it's
40:39
early ninety points, I mean that's gonna be good enough. So I'll get
40:44
a little bit of Munos, but not somebody. I'm gonna make it a
40:46
point to target because I like other underdogs more. Do you think you'll have
40:51
more Muno or Parisian? I would say Munos more like more more alive to
41:00
win, but Parisians more a live to break the slate. If he wins,
41:04
I'll probably be pretty close, maybe fifteen each. Yeah, that makes
41:07
sense. See that's when I look at dogs especially and stuff like I'm playing
41:13
for that ceiling. I'm playing for the optimal. Like I think Munos wins
41:15
and he scores, he's gonna get seventy five and maybe even sixty five and
41:20
even at that. Like I guess I'm saying this, and we're about to
41:22
get into Caitlin, I'm gonna say chu Kegi And I don't know what a
41:27
Camara whatever it is, but like I guess, I'm playing a little of
41:30
her. So it's the same exact play as Pedro Munos. I don't know
41:34
what about if you had to pick one of two, Kegan or Munyos,
41:37
I'm gonna say, chu Kegan. I know she got married, it's what
41:39
Sermonara I'm going too, But I'm so Munos. Yeah, I'm looking at
41:46
him very similar, though I don't like the upside. If I played on
41:49
anyone to be paidro definitely fading Phillips. I don't like this fight though it's
41:53
a fight fade and twenty entry in below for me, that is interesting too.
41:58
I guess without you, Sada, like these Brazilians we're talking Kyler Phillips
42:05
here looted the klein looked to huge last week, like is there any merit
42:08
or is anything you're changing in your process? And I think that now they
42:12
were cheating with you, Sada and just getting away with it fair enough to
42:15
keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, I mean this. When
42:19
you see this card on the pre limbs, this one, you know it's
42:21
an adult card. The Tayas Gamrot RDA pre Limbs come on now minus four
42:25
or fifteen gam rock plus three forty five on the way back is RDA.
42:30
This fight very likely to go the distance plus two to fifteen to finish gamrock
42:35
plus two forty inside the distance RDA plus nine hundred gamrack. We have at
42:39
twenty two percent, RDA at seven percent, So I'll throw it to you.
42:45
I guess on the fact, were you surprised when you saw this line,
42:47
because I was pretty surprised to see gamrock. This pig is a favorite
42:52
with RDA at one fifty five. I think at this line would be like
42:57
minus three hundred or something if it wasn't for RDA's last performance. Luke going
43:00
eight for eleven on takedowns ten plus minutes of control time is not a good
43:05
look when you're going against a chain wrestler and GAMRODZ. But man, that
43:08
was at one seventy hens four fifteen. That's a haul. If it's it's
43:13
a dog or pass. If I'm betting it, there's no chance I'm laying
43:15
four to one. But in DFS, I don't like RDA's gonna be fighting
43:20
off takedowns constantly. Gamro's gonna be relatively lower owned in this range. Sean
43:25
O'Malley ninety two hundred will be double the ownership. This Spay ninety three hundred
43:30
will be double the ownership. I think Almabayev is higher owned for one hundred
43:34
more than Gamrot. We have thirty one compared to twenty two. I'll be
43:37
using Gamrod and Chalkier lineups. I still don't love the upside, like he
43:44
can get there with takedowns control time, but he just hasn't done it so
43:46
far in the UFC, Like looking at all of his uh his scores.
43:52
Let me pull it up here, I had it. I don't think he's
43:53
ever scored more than one oh nine. Yeah, one o eight ninety seven,
43:59
one oh seven, eighty six, eighty four. I'm not even convinced
44:02
one o eight's enough on this slate now, I think he has more than
44:06
one ten point up side. But again, I like others in the range
44:08
more. I like to Spain more. I like Almabaya more than while I'm
44:12
more I'll use Gamera and chalk your lineup since I think he'll get overlooked at
44:15
bits. I think he wins a decision. But yeah, I'm curious to
44:20
see what you're saying this one. Yeah, I just agree with everything you
44:22
said. I was surprised to see the line that high. I handicap every
44:28
fight, and I had Gamra, the highest I would cap them would have
44:30
been minus three thirty five. So, like, I was trying to talk
44:35
myself into an RDA play, but he's just getting up there in age,
44:37
and I do think the most likely outcome is Gamro's gonna land one to two
44:42
takedowns in each round, and probably that'll be enough because the striking will probably
44:45
be close. But if you're gonna tell me we had a fifteen minute striking
44:49
match, like, definitely give me RDA even had to pick the line,
44:52
I might might be leaning with RDA there. So Gamrock needs the takedowns and
44:57
he's like minus one seventy five to win a decision here, it's gonna be
45:00
hard for him to pay off that price tag in a decision. And not
45:04
only does he have to pay off the price tag, he's still got to
45:06
beat the guy above him and the guy below him, and then other people
45:07
below him as well. So yeah, I'd like to be underweight on gam
45:12
Rack. But what you said about using him in chalk of your line makes
45:15
total sense. I'm completely cool doing that as well. And then RDA.
45:20
I mean, I'm okay with some RDA, but I just like other underdogs
45:22
more to where I'm not gonna get much of them. I mean, spoiler
45:27
alert main event, I like Cheeto Vera, so like a lot of my
45:30
underdog is gonna go to Cheeto. So that's just gonna take away from what
45:31
I would get from RDA. But on a different card, I would think
45:36
that I would be a little bit above the field on RDA. On this
45:39
card, with fourteen fights, I might ex him out to be honest with
45:44
you, and just hope Gamraut wins with an eighty. Yeah, I'm actually
45:46
RDA and twenty teams are last, just because I think he's gonna be fighting
45:50
off takedown so much. And like you look at the inside the distance prop
45:53
plus nine hundred so books saying he's not finishing. If he doesn't finish,
46:00
you think at least one or two of those rounds he's off his back a
46:02
good amount. Like just feels like the past pretty thin even in a win,
46:07
to be on the optimal. And I guess that's why I keep going
46:08
back to Parisian Joanne Wood, just because she throws a ton of vind like,
46:13
I feel way better about her getting there in a decision. We'll get
46:15
to some other dogs. He mets in Cheto, there's Dustin Poorier, Like
46:21
if I guess I want to say that about Cheeto. If he wins,
46:22
he's not guaranteed optimal. If Dustin Poorier wins, I find it very hard
46:27
to see him not being optimal. So I'll be playing those dogs if they
46:31
win. I feel good about them being there already, a even in a
46:35
win, just like Peter Munno's I don't think it's anywhere close to a lock.
46:38
I think it could be a pretty low score. We'll keep it going.
46:42
Next fight on the card, Rummy asks the question how many air punches
46:45
in this one? Caitlin chu Keegan? What is seminaro? We're gonna say,
46:50
Chuck ke Agan. We do know she is married though, Caitlyn chuge
46:52
again may see Barber Barber minus two to oh five Cheu ke Gan plus one
46:57
seventy five this fights plus two forty inside the distance, most likely to go
47:01
the distance on the card, all the win equity or finishing equity on the
47:06
Barber side plus two sixty five inside the distance chu Kegian plus nine hundred.
47:12
Looking at ownership in this one, excuse me, uh, Macy Barber ten
47:15
percent, Caitlyn Chukegian, Sermonara whatever, nine percent, not a flight I
47:21
like at all. I mean, you look at Macy Barber. You need
47:24
what she did last fight against Amanda hebas her best victory two date. Second
47:30
round. TKO came out guns blazing and put it on her. She still
47:34
only scored one oh seven. Now I would take one oh seven at ten
47:37
percent for eighty eight hundred. Any day the week on this card, but
47:40
before that she scored sixty nine, sixty three, seventy nine, and fifty
47:45
four. None of those are gonna get close to getting there. I'll throw
47:50
it to you. I mean, Cheu Kegan. I look at kind of
47:52
like Pedro Muno's. I kept her in my pool. I think she's a
47:57
little likely to score a little more than Pedro, a little more volume.
48:00
Maybe Woman's mma. I feel good about the dog, but man, I
48:05
put this fight as underweight. Both cap them both a like ten to fifteen.
48:08
And if I get none of this fight, and I love my exposures,
48:12
I'd be totally happy with that as well. So yeah, another lineup
48:15
or another fight where if you're really talking, you land on one of these
48:19
people, I think it's fine because they're definitely gonna be low on what about
48:22
you. I'm just gonna x this whole fight out and make it a thirteen
48:28
fight card. But I put it as a two star, which a lot
48:32
of the times I've I completely fade my two stars on her fight rankings,
48:36
but I've only had one to one star so far. That was the Loma
48:39
the last Loma fight, And if I put a one star that's me saying,
48:43
like, you should ex this out of your lineup as well, but
48:45
in this one, like I could see it making the optimal lineup. Che
48:50
keg inside just with a win, maybe scoring eighty points could get her there.
48:53
And then the Barber side, she does have the higher ceiling with her
48:57
takedown upside, and she does have TKO upside as well. Else she scored
49:00
over one hundred three times, and it's the ownership on the Barber side that
49:04
makes it like, Okay, you could play a little bit of Barber if
49:06
you want to, But I'm just gonna ex both sides out hope that Barber
49:09
does win twenty nine to twenty eight and scores seventy five points something like that.
49:15
I think that's the most likely outcome, and that's just what I'm hoping
49:17
is gonna happen, and that won't make the optimal lineup. So I'm gonna
49:21
ex them both out make it a little bit easier for myself. Yeah,
49:23
I definitely can't argue that one bit. I just mainly had it. So
49:28
you liked that. If you had to pick the you like the Coyler Phillips
49:30
Muno's fight over this one. If you had to pick. So yeah,
49:32
if if I had I actually did have one lineup where I had seventy four
49:37
hundred left for my last spot, I threw che Keg. I'm gonna call
49:40
it Chukeg, and I threw her in there, and I was like,
49:43
you know, nah, I'm gonna I'm taking her out and I put in
49:45
so I just left money on the table. I don't know if it was
49:46
Munos or whatever it was, but I'm just gonna not play it. And
49:51
I think if she wins and Munos wins, I think even if they're both
49:55
decisions, I would still take Munos. I think, okay, oh yeah,
50:00
I mean we're talking two of the worst fights on the card in my
50:02
opinion. It sounds like your opinion as well, so not one. If
50:06
you're only playing a couple of lineups, I think you cross it off.
50:08
Even if you got twenty, I think you can cross it off. I'll
50:12
be capping them for sure. We got what six fights left on the car
50:15
to man, you won't. You might not find six better fights back to
50:17
back to back to back to back. Then you're gonna get right here again.
50:22
We are giving away a free monthly membership from our man I have six
50:27
roles, so shout out to you in the discord. I have six roles,
50:30
very funny name. Shout out to you giving away a monthly membership.
50:32
If you're not a member, put in the YouTube chat why you're not,
50:36
why you want one? Big Marley will pick in a couple fights, So
50:39
be on the lookouts if you want to scroll up whatever it may be.
50:44
And if you have a couple people and you need me to like pick a
50:45
number like one, two, three, whatever it may be, assigned a
50:49
name to someone, we can do that as well, but I'm gonna put
50:52
you in charge of that. Well. We talked about the next fight,
50:53
the closest line fight on the car, pretty much a straight pick them curtisplay
50:59
Jaelton. I'll make it eighty two hundred blades eight k for Jailton. Like
51:02
you said, the odds depends where you look. You look on bet online,
51:07
you got a'l mada minus one thirteen blades minus one oh seven. You
51:10
go to fan duel straight pick a minus one ten apiece, DraftKings minus one
51:15
twelve minus one ten flip a coin. This fight is gonna be in my
51:20
rule. Like I mentioned four fights, this will be another fights that I
51:23
will have at least one at least two fighters of this fight Beidoa fight,
51:29
Linz fight, and this Spain fight. This fight is favored to finish minus
51:32
two fifty Junior or Almeida plus one thirty inside the distance Blades plus one eighty
51:37
five Take it away, man. I guess does al Mada get the takes
51:43
downs because it feels like Almeida needs the takedowns Blades. I guess needs to
51:49
keep it on the feet. But I don't know. This is obviously,
51:51
of all the fights throughout this whole card, people are complete on everyone's on
51:55
a different side, it feels like, and some people feel very strongly about
52:00
the side of their I don't know how you feel strongly on either side.
52:02
I don't, but yeah, take it away. Maybe you could talk me
52:06
into song. Yeah, just a great fight to target whoever you're on.
52:09
Get leverage on them, maybe even go like sixty thirty something like that.
52:15
Both of them, top two wrestlers in the division are up there anyways.
52:21
They both have knockout power, but Blaze just has no chin, like Almeida's
52:27
only got a knockout power because he's a big, strong dude. He's got
52:30
no real striking though, so he's gonna have to just land something that he
52:32
throws out. It's not even gonna be technical. But if he can land
52:36
a hard shot on Blades, he can knock him out in any round.
52:38
But Blade's gonna be the better striker, the more likely TKO artists in my
52:44
opinion, and I'm picking Blades to be the better wrestler as well. Al
52:47
mad he was a light heavyweight and he just came up to heavyweight because he
52:52
was getting a bunch of scrubs who didn't know how to wrestle. Now he's
52:54
getting the best wrestler in the division, and he had I think he had
52:58
sixteen pounds on him today weigh ins. I think that shit's gonna come into
53:01
play. So if Blades can hold up, I don't expect much. I
53:07
expect nothing off from Blades off his back if al Mada can get takedowns,
53:12
whereas maybe Almeida can throw up an arm bar or something like that, if
53:15
Blades is getting takedowns. But in my opinion, Blades is going to be
53:17
the better wrestler, and this one the more likely guy to be on top.
53:22
And he's also the better striker, so he has more ways to win
53:23
this fight. I've lost a lot of money back in Blades, though I
53:27
don't think I ever pick against this guy, so it wouldn't be my first
53:30
time being wrong. But my side that I'm gonna get leverage on will be
53:34
Blades. But I will be close to all in on this fight, like
53:37
maybe I'll be sixty thirty on the Blade side. But at the same time,
53:40
I probably want my favorite Blades lineup to just have the duplicated other five
53:45
and then throw al Mada in there as well. Just target this fight however
53:49
you want to. I actually had Blades as the lower owned in my projected
53:53
ownership, so that made me like them even more. I just feel like
53:57
I've heard a lot more people talking about Almeida this week. Recency bias UH
54:00
is always playing a part, so I think that's gonna make Blades a little
54:04
bit lower on than he should be. But I expect the winner to be
54:07
on the optimal Lena. Yeah, we have thirty three percent thirty eight,
54:09
thirty three for Blades, thirty eight. I'll made a Blades's two hundred higher
54:14
own and at some books he's a dog like. I think they're gonna be
54:16
similar, but I think you're probably right. Like I don't see anything wrong
54:21
with thirty eight thirty three. I see it pretty similar. I will say,
54:23
though I see on i'mm a junkie. I'll made have went in at
54:27
two sixty one and Blades two fifty seven. Now it was two forty one.
54:30
They heard that forty okay. I was gonna say, I don't know
54:34
how well because he went in at two thirty six his last fight, which
54:37
is as heavy as I was gonna say, how does because he made two
54:39
oh five with ease earlier and he just decided to go out because park reporter
54:45
said I'll fight you, and of course I'll fight Parker reporter. He hasn't
54:47
moved down. So two forty one, yeah, pretty sure. Forty one
54:51
fifty seven okay, Yeah, that that makes a lot more sense. I
54:53
was gonna say, man, two sixty one, I've been able to go
54:57
watch the way and so yeah, I if my pick was Almeida, and
55:02
I mean there's no confidence on it. I just think he can take the
55:06
bat. I think he's gonna try and wrestle. I mean he's gonna shoot
55:08
a spear double leg I think to start, or he's gonna try and wrestle
55:13
from the jump, and I think he can find the back of Blades,
55:15
like Blade's just not many try and take them down. People have had success
55:19
if he's off his back or he's got his back taken though, like that's
55:22
you. That's Almeida's world great grappler for sure. Now I'm not confident at
55:27
all because if he can't get those takedowns, I mean, Blades definitely has
55:30
to be this. We don't know really about Almeida striking, but I don't
55:34
know how Blades isn't the superior striker I've got. I man, I've been
55:37
on Blades a lot recently as well. Loss is I think he's a stud.
55:42
The chin's worry some though. I just don't know about the takedown defense
55:45
against a guy like Almeida. And again, even if you do with the
55:49
ownership though, like you build a lineup, you have Blades, you go
55:52
down Blades to Almeida, don't think you're slick by that. Even if you
55:54
leave two hundred, you're not really getting too much of a dupe reduction or
56:00
whatever the right words are, just because you're saving two hundred. So pick
56:04
your favorite. Again, this is why I think playing multiple lineups at MMA
56:07
is the way to go, though, like good luck playing one lineup and
56:12
picking which one's right. Your guy loses, then you're done for the night.
56:15
That's just not It's not for me personally. So great fights a targeting
56:17
mid tier ever so slightly with Lee Almeida. But if I had sixty forty
56:22
blades and loved everything else, I'd also be fine with that. It's not
56:25
a fight I'm gonna make a big stand on personally. Still five fights left
56:30
to go, almost an hour. Again, appreciate it. Still everyone tuning
56:34
in watching they do want that membership, I can tell, so big Marley,
56:38
we'll do it. We'll talk about Peter Young song You Dong, We'll
56:42
talk about Gilbert Burns, Jack Della. Then after that, if you got
56:45
someone or you got a couple options, you need me to pick a number
56:47
or something, we'll pick one. In two fights, Peter Young's Peter Young
56:52
Peter Yan song You Dong minus one twenty two is Peter Yon plus one h
56:58
two. This song on this Fight's plus one to ninety five. To finish
57:02
Peter Yon plus three seventy five. Inside the Distance song You Dong plus four
57:07
hundred right in the mid tier eighty three hundred, seventy nine hundred. Peter
57:10
Yon sixteen percent. Song You Dong is sixteen percent. Man, this is
57:17
not a fight I want to target much either. I think this fight goes
57:21
all fifteen minutes. Peter Yon's a slow starter himself. We only have three
57:24
rounds to work, so even if he wins, I don't think he finishes
57:29
Song You Dong, who's very tough. I actually think the inside of the
57:31
distance problem. I think songs more likely for a finish than Peter Yon.
57:36
So like that three seventy five, four hundred, I would have it flipped.
57:38
I think Song You Dong hits harder. I mean, Corey sans Hagen
57:42
said it was the hardest he's been hit. It was by Song You Dong.
57:45
The light kicks are nasty. He's technical, still young, only getting
57:47
better. Peter Yan is still thirty one. It was what four fights ago.
57:52
People are calling him the bandsamweight goat one knee changed his whole career.
57:55
I just I don't like the upside really for either guy. I think songs
58:00
more likely to finish, and with that four hundred dollars savings, he fits
58:04
more of my builds I guess at seventy nine hundred, So not a fight
58:07
I liked. I don't like Yan. I'll be fading him underweight. Song.
58:13
Yeah, give me a song if i'd have picked though, Yeah,
58:15
I pretty much agree just with everything you said. I mean, I can't
58:19
I love this fight. I can't wait to watch it. I'm really high
58:22
on both of these guys. I expect a high level striking match. Either
58:24
one of them could mix in a couple of takedowns, either one of them
58:27
could get a knockout. But I expect a very close, high level fight
58:30
where the winner probably scores right around ten x, but I would guess it's
58:37
more likely under ten x rather than over. So I'm gonna try and get
58:39
away from this fight. I'm not gonna x either one of them out of
58:43
my playpool, but I would guess that I end up with Morya Doong because
58:46
he's four hundred dollars cheaper. But I'm picking Yan. Actually, I think
58:51
he's just a little bit crisper of a striker, a little bit more likely
58:53
to wrestle. So I picked Yan to get the win, probably just twenty
58:58
nine to twenty eight. But I mean, ownership is the same, So
59:01
I'd rather save the money. But if you if you don't was gonna be
59:04
like twenty five and Yon fifteen, then definitely give me Yan is my preferred
59:08
play, Like you could definitely change my mind on my preferred play in this
59:12
one. But ideally I'm just avoiding this fight and I'll be underweight to both
59:16
of them. I do not see this being in a single entry. Yeah,
59:20
no, I think your ownership's right at sixteen both like that Blade's Almeta
59:22
fight right there at eighty two, ak Lynz Kudlava eighty four to seventy eight,
59:28
Like, this is the fight in the mid tier. If you want
59:30
to get different, you can go here. Personally, I'd rather go to
59:35
Josh Parisian for sub ten percent. I'd rather go to Gamrots. I'd rather
59:38
go to the Calder or the wood Morose fight. Like, I just don't
59:44
love. It's hard for me to see this fight outscoring the Linz fight,
59:46
this fight out scoring the Almeta fights. Yeah, it's pretty much what I'm
59:52
trying to get at, so not much interest. I'll pick Song. But
59:54
if I have none of this fight twenty and below, totally good with that
59:58
too, great fight here coming up and then we will have Big Marley pickouts
1:00:02
our monthly winner courtesy of I have six roll shout out to. I have
1:00:08
six roles, Jack Dell, Madelana, Gilbert Burns, Great classes styles right
1:00:13
here minus one seventy Jack Della plus one forty five Gilbert Burns fights minus two
1:00:17
hundred to finish, Jack Della plus one forty inside the distance Gilbert Burns plus
1:00:23
two ten Jack Della eighty six hundred, twenty four percent. We have Gilbert
1:00:30
Burns seventy six hundred and eighteen percent. I mean just gon'ing like Peter Jan
1:00:34
a Mat or Peter Jan song y Dong fight. I like Gilbert Burns more
1:00:38
than both of them in a vacuum, like I could go build a team
1:00:43
eighty three hundred. Yeah, take him out, leave the seven hundred with
1:00:46
Gilbert Burns. I just think there's more upside in this one. It's Jack
1:00:50
Della on the feet, it's Gilbert Burns on the mat, fights, favored
1:00:53
to finish. Who's gonna get the best of it? I guess, so
1:00:55
I'll throw it to you on that note. Yeah, I'm looking forward to
1:01:01
this one. I'm picking Jack Della Madalina because I do think most of the
1:01:06
fight takes place on the feet. He's the better boxer, gonna be the
1:01:08
higher level striker, higher volume striker as well, so I think he ultimately
1:01:14
wins two, if not all, three rounds. But Burns is one of
1:01:19
the best grapplers in the division. He's got knockout power as well, so
1:01:22
I agree. It's kind of like I would rather just throw Burns in rather
1:01:29
than a yawn and a ya dong and leave that salary on the table.
1:01:32
But I do know that I'm hunting for underdogs on this card, and I
1:01:37
have Burns in my ten or so that I've built already. I don't love
1:01:42
clicking like I'm not starting my line up there, but I feel like I'm
1:01:45
usually like around seventy eight hundred or so for my last spot, So Burns
1:01:50
right there is completely cool with me, and it would need to come through
1:01:54
the ground. I don't think Burns can win a three round striking match here.
1:01:59
I think you could knock he could also win two rounds with takedowns and
1:02:07
grappling control, or he could just submit him in any round like he's dangerous.
1:02:10
We saw JDM get taken down. How many times was he taken down
1:02:15
by the new Career. I think it was three. One was reversed three,
1:02:22
but you're right what he did. He was on top and then he
1:02:24
got a reversal too, and the third that ended up on top two.
1:02:29
You're right, but I mean shit, Burns might not need three Takedowns might
1:02:31
just take Burns one. But I also think it's it's close enough to where
1:02:38
I'm picking JDM, but even my favorite JDM lineup, Like, I'm not
1:02:43
against just saving a thousand leaving a thousand dollars on the table and throwing Burns
1:02:45
in there as well, because I do think this could be an important fight,
1:02:49
but it also could play out so close where it's like JDM wins the
1:02:52
first round, Burns wins the second, JDM wins the third, and then
1:02:55
we don't make it on the optimal lineup. So I'm not really going to
1:02:59
force anything with this fight. I'm cool with whatever the sOliver wants to give
1:03:02
me, to be honest with you, and I'd be okay with either one
1:03:05
of them in my single entry. But by no for a fact, by
1:03:08
the way I've been building my lineups, Burns is more likely to be in
1:03:12
my single entry. Yeah, I mean, everything you said is pretty much
1:03:15
how I wrote it too. My preferred play is Burns, but a lot
1:03:17
of that has to do with that. Hey, we need dogs on the
1:03:20
card. That thousand, seventy six hundred goes a long way. And I
1:03:23
mentioned earlier I think you can leave a thousand on this card because I totally
1:03:28
think you can go Jack Dalla down to Burns. Leave that thousand. Like
1:03:31
when you play GVPS, you play for upside, like the project Like when
1:03:36
some people asking discord its projections mean much in MMA, no, not at
1:03:39
all. What the projection is pretty much telling you. We take into account
1:03:43
the money line, nods, the inside of the distance, props, the
1:03:45
fight pace, et cetera, and it's just more of like a it's a
1:03:49
mean number like in a loss. In a win, you take all those
1:03:52
outcomes and you get an average score. You don't care about average when it
1:03:55
comes to GPPs. You need not only six for six, You especially in
1:04:00
the flag Ship, need the nuts pretty much. So when they win,
1:04:02
how much do they score? I think Burns says just as much upside as
1:04:06
Jack Della. He has first round sub upside is throws hard overhands. He
1:04:12
could clip Jack Della. Now, if it's on the feet he needs a
1:04:15
knockout, I think obvious he's just gonna get pieced up. But yeah,
1:04:17
plus one forty five, I mean that's not crazy at all. All the
1:04:20
upside, and you leave that thousand dollars, you could be looking at a
1:04:24
solo shipper for six figures. So yeah, I preferred play Is Burns because
1:04:30
of the thousand savings, because I could leave money and get a little different
1:04:33
there. But I still like Jack Dell. A lot of eighty six hundred
1:04:36
two and eighty six hundred more people will go to Ben was Sinton Knee.
1:04:41
Jack Della is definitely going to get some ownership, but Jude Lava's cheaper.
1:04:45
They'll make the blades is cheaper. I don't think his ownership is going to
1:04:47
be crazy. Now, I agree with you on the last point before we
1:04:50
keep it rolling. Three fights left. This wasn't one of the fights in
1:04:55
my rules though, because I could totally see Burns wins round one with Takedown's
1:04:59
control. Maybe a little tired, Jack Della makes adjustments. Now he does
1:05:03
stuffs to take downs, he pieces them up, and we get to round
1:05:06
three pretty much won a piece and neither have scored greats. Even a third
1:05:10
round finish might not be enough. So not a fight. I'll be all
1:05:14
in on fourteen fights to make it even where you need a higher score,
1:05:17
you need probably ninety plus from Jack to feel good, need eighty eighty five
1:05:24
plus from Burns. There's a path where Jack wins a decision, like I
1:05:28
said, and probably scores like eighty five and it's not enough. But yeah,
1:05:31
good fight to target. I lean the burnside if I have to pick.
1:05:35
You have got the winners for us? Yeah? Yeah, do we
1:05:40
got Jadubbs. You can go with jadas for the free month and then this
1:05:47
off three monthly would be awesome. I'm may fans since the beginning. I
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do my own taste some of research, but would be a cherry on top.
1:05:54
Love that Jay Dubbs. So you had multiple love burns here. He's
1:05:57
been talking a lot. So that's the first and then go ahead, big
1:06:00
Marley, tell the people, big card. So let's get a second one
1:06:03
in here as well. On the house. Let's see, I got one,
1:06:09
I got one, I got next one. I love this comment right
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here. I watch every every UFC event since Usman Covington watched every ship a
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nation UFC and PGA with Tambo and hoop USC and PJ rule all other sports.
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Hey, I like I like that comment too, would love the membership.
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You deserve the membership MMA PGA. I believe the best in the business
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I'm gonna say, rigatone snappy, RIGATONI Snap. There you go,
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Three fights Love Big Marley, Kevin Howland, Michael Page minus one thirty
1:07:58
two is Kevin Howland plus moved down a little bit when I'll speaking, minus
1:08:01
one thirty one now plus one eleven on the way back for page plus one
1:08:06
fifteen for this fight to finish. Kevin Holland plus two hundred Michael Page plus
1:08:12
four hundred odds in this are ownership in this one. Kevin Holland eighty five
1:08:16
hundred fifteen percent. We have Michael Page seventy seven one hundred nineteen percent.
1:08:24
My quick thoughts similar to the I guess not quite the song you Don't Fight?
1:08:29
Which one was it? Earlier? Drawn a blank? I guess it
1:08:34
was none of them. I guess kind of like the Marina Morose Joanne would
1:08:38
fight. But I even like that fight more. I don't like this fight
1:08:41
much because Kevin Holland's easiest pat the victories takedowns the dude. Literally, I
1:08:46
mean it's the same fight as Stephen WonderBoy Thompson. It feels like he took
1:08:49
WonderBoy down, was getting pieced on the feet, and invited him right back
1:08:54
up. Eventually throws in the towel after four. If he doesn't wrestle,
1:08:59
it's it's gonna be a fifteen minute striking match. Don't see it scoring well
1:09:02
if it goes to distance. Even a third round knockout probably doesn't get there.
1:09:06
Over two and a half is minus one sixty five. Over one and
1:09:11
a half is minus three sixty. It's gonna be low owned. You can
1:09:14
use Kevin Holland in lineupst or chalk here since he'll be pretty low owned.
1:09:18
But if I have to pick a side, I mean, I'm picking Page
1:09:21
and I'm definitely taking the The eight hundred dollars difference at seventy seven hundred,
1:09:28
because maybe eighty five is enough or seventy five hundred is enough. I just
1:09:31
I don't think Kevin Holland's striking. He needs a knockout early, and I
1:09:34
just don't think that really happens. So Page is my preferred play. But
1:09:39
I don't love this fight, to be honest, Yeah, I don't love
1:09:43
the fight either, but I think it's like a lesser version of the last
1:09:45
one we just talked about where I'm picking Holland the favorite to win. I
1:09:50
think he has more paths to victory. I think he's gonna be the better
1:09:54
wrestler grappler in this one. And I also think he's the better or not
1:09:59
better, just a higher volume striker like he landed one hundred and twenty seven
1:10:02
strikes against JDM. I don't think Page's even has that in his game because
1:10:06
he's just like a karate style. Let me back back up and then pick
1:10:12
my shots and then when I throw, it's gonna be awkward and it's gonna
1:10:14
be dangerous. And I don't know where these stats came from on Michael Page
1:10:17
on UFC stats dot com. I mean they look great. I don't know
1:10:23
what fight that would have been in though, but I don't think those are
1:10:25
real. But I think Page is really just in play for a finish.
1:10:30
If Page does win a decision, it's probably gonna be a more boring fight,
1:10:34
and I don't think either one of them would make the optimal lineup,
1:10:36
but it's just gonna be a lot easier for Page to make it in the
1:10:40
decision, I think at his price tag. So even though I'm picking against
1:10:44
him, I would rather just take the underdog in my lineups because he does
1:10:46
have big power, like he could knock out Holland with something weird that he
1:10:49
doesn't see coming. Holland's durable, though, so I just don't think that
1:10:54
it's likely. And the most I mean, I guess the most likely outcome
1:11:00
is that Holland wins at least two rounds on the scorecards and he just doesn't
1:11:04
hit ten x or he gets right around ten x, and that's probably not
1:11:08
gonna cut it on this card. So I'm trying to get away from this
1:11:11
fight. But I do know that Page is right there in the underdogs where
1:11:14
I'm landing around, so he's gonna be just like a Gilbert Burns to me,
1:11:17
my favorite Gilbert Burns lineup, I'll probably take him out, put Page
1:11:20
in there and have the same type of lineup, but they're both similar where
1:11:26
I think Page has the higher ceiling with a knockout, but Burns is gonna
1:11:31
score better in a decision, I think, yeah, I'm definitely I like
1:11:36
Burns a good bit more than Paige personally. I just feel like Page is
1:11:42
fine because he has power. He can knock out Holland. But Holland great
1:11:45
chin, great durability. Even if he does get rocked or something, maybe
1:11:49
you would then try and wrestle or something at the end of the day.
1:11:51
I just don't like this fight much Holland. I'll use in Chalky lineups to
1:11:56
get different Page if I fall on him seventy seven hundred, Yeah, he's
1:12:00
live for knockout or something. I think this fight goes fifteen and at this
1:12:03
point, if it goes fifteen minutes, you want to be holding a dog
1:12:05
ticket. It feels like these judges got no clue what's going on. But
1:12:11
Kevin Holland has to throw more volume, so it feels like it would be
1:12:14
a Kevin Holland decision to fight left Baby two insane. Actually, I don't
1:12:18
know. I could see the main event being a little boring. It's fun
1:12:21
fight on paper. I don't see how this fight's boring though. Both of
1:12:25
these five round fights. Benoi Saint Denis dustin Pourier as good as it gets.
1:12:30
Minus two ten is Benoi Saint Denis plus one eighty is dustin Pourier.
1:12:34
This fight's minus four fifty to finish. Benoi Saint Denis minus one sixty dustin
1:12:40
Pourier plus two sixty. Looking at the ownership in this one, we have
1:12:45
been wa at forty nine percent, So I see Marley making a little adjustments.
1:12:48
I like that. Benua forty nine percent, Dustin Pourier thirty one percent.
1:12:55
I'm on, I'm in Benjan dude. I don't know if this dude
1:12:58
can be beaten like it. I tried. I tried steamroller. I tried
1:13:01
to get on steamroller last time. It was a solid fight. But I
1:13:04
don't know how you can like finish Benja Saint Denis. I mean, Jeleskido
1:13:10
Santo's had the chance. The ref still didn't do it. He showed all
1:13:13
heart. He's just the car deal looks fine, very physically strong. The
1:13:17
body kicks, he throws his nasty the pressure and when he gets you down,
1:13:21
he is so strong. DP by far the best guy he's fought.
1:13:26
I guess what DP is it? Though? Is it prime? Poorier?
1:13:30
I did see my man up here. Let me see if I can pull
1:13:31
it up. What's going on, Robin? It was at Salt Lake City.
1:13:33
I lost a lot of cheese on Poorier that night, but he saw
1:13:36
me in the bar after. It was great seeing you. I recognize you.
1:13:41
He's talking. Poorier fought last time, he's fighting this week, hopes
1:13:44
for another Pourier ko. I don't know if he does the KO, and
1:13:49
I don't want him to get a KO. I'll say that I think Benoir
1:13:51
eventually gets a sub takes him down. What do you see in this one?
1:13:56
Yeah? I mean ben Wa is like the scariest guy in the UFC
1:13:59
right now. He looks pretty unstoppable. And I mean he could score with
1:14:02
really any outcome. He could get a knockout score well, he coun get
1:14:04
a submission score well, or he could just rack up take it. He's
1:14:09
got five rounds to work with. He could rack up takedowns in each round
1:14:12
and score one hundred and fifty plus points in a decision here as well,
1:14:15
So he's one of my favorite plays on the entire card. But POORI is
1:14:20
one of my favorite fighters of all time, so I still kind of want
1:14:24
to root for him. The ownership is probably gonna be up there enough where
1:14:28
I can't really get much leverage on him, but I'm gonna definitely get a
1:14:30
good amount of poorer lineups as well. I'll be pretty close to all in
1:14:33
on this fight. This is probably my favorite fight. If I was gonna
1:14:36
be one hundred percent on anyone, I think this would be the fight for
1:14:41
me to go all in on, and maybe I will, but I'm not
1:14:43
gonna make it a rule. I'll just try and look at my percent just
1:14:45
make sure they're at least ninety percent or so, but give me BSD to
1:14:49
get a finish. Yeah, I agree, this would be the fight if
1:14:53
I had to go all in. I heard your alarm. I know you
1:14:55
got to roll pick up the kid last fight O'Malley Chito vera O'Malley minus fifty
1:15:00
five cheeto plus two to fifteen coin flip for this fight to finish. Looking
1:15:03
at the ownership quick, then I'll throw it to you, we'll get on
1:15:05
out of here. Forty three for O'Malley, Cheeto Vera thirty eight percent take
1:15:12
it away. I know you mentioned Cheeto earlier. What you see, and
1:15:14
then if you want to touch on Francis and Anthony Joshua tonight, if you
1:15:17
have any take on that, you can as well. Not I didn't even
1:15:20
know that was tonight, but on this one, I like Cheeto Vera in
1:15:26
this fight. I definitely think that O'Malley's the more skilled striker, especially early
1:15:31
in the fight like rounds one, in rounds two, but man five round
1:15:35
Cheetoh is one of my favorite strikers like that, three through five rounds,
1:15:40
I'm not sure that Cheeto doesn't have a striking edge in the last half of
1:15:43
this fight. And I also think that Cheeto is the better grappler in every
1:15:46
round of this fight. I think he's more durable, not only his chin,
1:15:50
but his legs as well. And he's already beat O'Malley in the first
1:15:55
round, which is when you would expect for O'Malley to be looking best.
1:15:58
And I've heard a lot of people talking about like, yeah, Vera's a
1:16:00
slow starter, but O'Malley's so high volume. I just don't see how how
1:16:03
Vera can keep up with it. I mean, O'Malley landed eight strikes in
1:16:08
his last fight. In the first round, it was a five minute striking
1:16:10
match. He landed eight strikes. He's landed over one hundred strikes against two
1:16:14
scrubs who have no business being in the UFC. But he's never even landed
1:16:18
ninety strikes against anybody other than those two scrubs. I think Vera could beat
1:16:23
him on volume. I think this line is disrespectful. Thirty percent for Vera.
1:16:28
I think that's super disrespectful. I think it's a lot. I think
1:16:30
he's over forty percent. It's likely to win this fight, So give me
1:16:34
Vera. I will have him in more than half my lineups. He is
1:16:38
on my core plays over at ship at nation dot com. Go sign up
1:16:41
to see the other two. But yeah, fight rankings will be posted in
1:16:43
the next couple hours. Feeling good about this card. I think we're gonna
1:16:46
ship it. Oh yeah, I love it man, not much too much.
1:16:49
Sad he did have money coming on Vera in the past couple of days,
1:16:53
plus two to fifty. It got down to now it's plus two ten
1:16:56
I'll just say I don't love this fight much. I'll be underweight because I
1:17:00
do Cheeto slow starter. I do agree with that. I do think Sugar
1:17:03
wins the early rounds at thirty eight percent. Even a fourth round Cheeto knockout,
1:17:08
Yeah, you would take it. But I think this fight, and
1:17:11
I think O'Malley by decision is the most likely outcome. I don't think he
1:17:15
scores enough at ninety two compared to the other people around him. Then you
1:17:17
wouldn't go Vera this ownership. Like I said, over forty four o Maale
1:17:21
thirty eight for Vera. We have over eighty percent people paying this fight.
1:17:26
I'll be underweight, hoping for a Malle decision, and yeah, I really
1:17:30
like the Bnoa Pourier fight. If you played both five rounders, you know
1:17:33
you got to do something a little different, very viable on this fourteen fight
1:17:36
card. But underweight this fight, hoping O'Malley by decision though, yeah,
1:17:42
I think if I prefer Cheeto then O'Malley. If I had to pick just
1:17:45
one fighter, though, I know you got to run and pick up the
1:17:47
kids. Good stuff is always big. Marley USC two ninety nine very pumped
1:17:51
sport all the content will be up again. His fight rankings will be done
1:17:56
a couple hours. Projections ownership already up, my slate plan. Everything will
1:18:00
be up within the next hour. Again. Shout out to you KK and
1:18:04
Rigatony email info at chipanation dot com. Take the picture of the YouTube.
1:18:10
Shout out, I have six rolls. Good luck tonight. Everybody hit that
1:18:13
like cuck that subscribe on the way out. Let's win some money for USC
1:18:16
two ninety nine. Let's see some Shipping Nation logos up top. Good Luck
1:18:20
Big Marley. Good stuff is always Big Marley on Title town. Be safe,
1:18:24
have a good week.