Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / CFP Semifinals Preview | Picks, Betting Odds & Game Predictions

Transcript

CFP Semifinals Preview | Picks, Betting Odds & Game Predictions · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:03
  Hello everybody. Welcome to Targeting Winners.
• 0:05
  Thank you for listening on Spotify and Apple Podcast.
• 0:09
  Please like and subscribe to our channel on YouTube, leave a
• 0:13
  comment, leave a rating five stars.
• 0:15
  We really appreciate it. And today I am, as always,
• 0:18
  joined with Darren and Peter. Darren, give us a weather
• 0:23
  update. Another freezing rain outbreak
• 0:27
  on on top of an inch and 1/2 or so of snow.
• 0:31
  God, I hate this state so much. And you guys, I say you guys are
• 0:38
  from around here. You know what exactly what I'm
• 0:41
  talking about, but literally 6:00 AM 6/15, I'm out there, the
• 0:46
  plow comes by and you know when they come down the street like
• 0:48
  two or three times, it's like a foot of just big frozen.
• 0:52
  Making my back hurt already. Just listen.
• 0:55
  To you it's like. Just the.
• 0:58
  Worst and then followed that up with a dentist appointment and a
• 1:01
  trip to motor vehicle so. Which is the worst of the three?
• 1:04
  That that's a That's a good pole.
• 1:07
  That's three shitty things. What's the worst of the three?
• 1:11
  Oh, you. Well, a quick little story about
• 1:13
  the the motor vehicle trip. So you know, my son is going to
• 1:16
  school for physical therapy. He's got his last semester
• 1:19
  coming up and they're taking a trip to Anaheim for something
• 1:23
  school related. So we're like, all right, well,
• 1:26
  we got to get you a real ID, otherwise you can't get on a
• 1:28
  plane. So we find his birth
• 1:30
  certificate, the Social Security card, something current with the
• 1:32
  address on it. We get some motor vehicles, say
• 1:35
  we fill out a form, we wait 45 minutes, we get in line delays.
• 1:39
  Like can I see your license? My son hands her his license.
• 1:42
  She's like, you already have a real ID.
• 1:43
  I'm like what? The.
• 1:48
  Fuck surprise. So, so I think because at the
• 1:51
  time then they were instituting it, you know, he was 17, he was
• 1:54
  getting his permit. It switched over to a license, I
• 1:56
  think she said, because, you know, we knew this was going to
• 1:58
  happen. Everybody that was yeah, we just
• 2:01
  gave them real I DS. I was like, and The thing is,
• 2:05
  I'm in line with him and I'm like, yeah, your license have to
• 2:07
  have this star on it. Now, did we think either of us
• 2:09
  would look at his license while we were in line?
• 2:11
  No, I got all the way up. She's like, yeah, you already
• 2:14
  have that. I'm like, just kill me.
• 2:16
  Just just so yeah, so that. So if I'm a little surlier than
• 2:21
  normal, I apologize. And as you heard, we're also
• 2:26
  joined by Pete from El Playa de Mexico, Quienes Mas Majo Pedro
• 2:31
  or Ricardo Montalban. What is up, Pedro?
• 2:33
  What's up? Excuse me, how we doing that?
• 2:35
  Very good. It's 79° right now.
• 2:37
  It's beautiful. It's everything is good.
• 2:39
  So warmer than here. How dare you?
• 2:42
  Yeah. Hey, you know, all I care is
• 2:44
  that the Buckeyes went down and we got four teams left and I'm
• 2:48
  kind of excited about what's left here, so.
• 2:51
  And if you're watching YouTube, you can tell by the graphic on
• 2:54
  here we're talking about the semifinals.
• 2:55
  But first we got some other things to come, some house thing
• 3:00
  to do here. Coming up February 12th at 7:00,
• 3:04
  we will be joined on a live stream on YouTube by Mark Haynes
• 3:07
  from Coaches Hot Seat. You'll be answering your
• 3:09
  coaching questions. So if you want your questions
• 3:14
  answered, you can ask them during the live stream or you
• 3:16
  can e-mail us at cfbdudes@yahoo.com.
• 3:19
  For those of you who listen and don't watch on YouTube, that's
• 3:22
  the best Ave. for you. We will be replaying the live
• 3:24
  stream as always on the Spotify and all the Apple things.
• 3:31
  Well, guys, I thought it'd be a busy episode for Mark and we had
• 3:34
  a pretty active coaching offseason. 32 of them I believe
• 3:40
  had last count, which is a lot. That's the most in quite some
• 3:45
  time. But you know, that's college
• 3:48
  football, man. Everybody's looking for the
• 3:50
  better opportunity, maybe trying to get into the NFL.
• 3:53
  And it's it's I can't. I mean, usually I keep up with
• 3:56
  it. I'm just like, I'll just wait a
• 3:58
  week and then read an article and just see where everything's
• 4:01
  at. I think we're we're OK for now.
• 4:04
  Every spot is currently full as we sit here.
• 4:08
  But, you know, I think a lot of these coordinators are going to
• 4:11
  get filled in. But all the head coaches are
• 4:12
  set. You know, school is starting for
• 4:14
  some of these programs. So I think all that stuff kind
• 4:17
  of needs to be filled and ready to roll.
• 4:20
  But as we've seen, sleep with a staffer, break into somebody's
• 4:25
  house with a butter knife, God knows what could happen.
• 4:28
  It wouldn't surprise any of us if there was literally another
• 4:31
  opening somewhere. No, But for now, yes, I I did
• 4:35
  reach out to Mark. He's excited, he's ready to
• 4:37
  roll. I sent him the link, so
• 4:39
  hopefully he will share that in his weekly newsletter.
• 4:42
  But yeah, bring your coaching questions, man 'cause that's the
• 4:44
  guy that can answer him. Try to stump him.
• 4:46
  Let's see if we can have something like ask about the
• 4:49
  special teams coordinator for UTEP or something.
• 4:52
  He probably knows, but that'll be something to see if he's like
• 4:55
  the Mel Kiper of of the show. He is, except he makes sense and
• 4:59
  he's got better hair, so. Yeah, that's.
• 5:03
  You know, I, I do have a question if there's any
• 5:05
  Wolverines listening to this. So obviously we have a really
• 5:08
  good coach, right? We're happy with the coach we
• 5:10
  hired. But let's just proxy this for a
• 5:13
  second. John Harbaugh just became
• 5:16
  available like yesterday, if you could.
• 5:19
  If you could. Horse trade and get John, would
• 5:22
  you make that trade 'cause that's a really interesting
• 5:27
  discussion because I really like the coach we have.
• 5:29
  But it's John Harbaugh who has obviously expressed interest in
• 5:33
  being at Michigan in the past. Obviously, Jim has been there.
• 5:37
  It's a family thing. If you can make the trade right
• 5:41
  now, would you do it? I think it's an interesting
• 5:44
  question. I think if you're in Michigan,
• 5:46
  why wouldn't you? I mean.
• 5:47
  Yeah, it's John, right I. Mean, yeah, I mean.
• 5:50
  How much younger is he than Whittingham?
• 5:52
  Well, I mean, Whittingham's a great coach, so that's what I'm
• 5:54
  saying. I mean, it's a it's an
• 5:56
  interesting question in the sense that we already have a
• 5:58
  really freaking good coach who retained all of our young
• 6:02
  talent. So clearly a really good coach.
• 6:06
  So that's an interesting question.
• 6:10
  I think he stays in the NFL, but.
• 6:13
  Oh, he will. He will.
• 6:14
  I mean, but that's because the Michigan job is gone.
• 6:16
  But if the Michigan job is open, it'd be different.
• 6:19
  And I think that's. Keep it all in the family, I
• 6:20
  guess. Yeah.
• 6:22
  Harbaugh. Someone else?
• 6:23
  Harbaugh. So, I mean, he's the only
• 6:24
  Harbaugh. He's the only Harbaugh currently
• 6:26
  welcome to back at Michigan, I believe, per the NBA.
• 6:30
  But yeah, I mean he. Would definitely.
• 6:33
  Yeah, if Freeman, yeah, If he wanted to swim Marcus Freeman
• 6:35
  with John Harbaugh, I wouldn't be against that.
• 6:37
  And I love Marcus Freeman. I think he's doing a great job.
• 6:40
  But let's face it, it's probably not going to be too much longer
• 6:43
  before he's in the NFL, so. Yeah.
• 6:47
  All right. And also, now we got that out of
• 6:48
  the way. We had the transfer portal
• 6:50
  opened up January 2nd. I believe it closes on the 16th.
• 6:55
  And we had some news today. Damon Williams signs a contract
• 6:59
  two or three days ago and then says, hey, what if I didn't?
• 7:04
  And besides, you have to go somewhere else.
• 7:08
  Darren, you're up with the Transfer Portal Madness.
• 7:11
  What you got? Here, dude, there is just so
• 7:14
  much craziness going on. I think they said like the first
• 7:16
  day like over 4500 players went in and then there was like
• 7:20
  another 3000 or something the next day.
• 7:23
  It's just, I mean, you can't even like I took a list of maybe
• 7:26
  like some of the top 152025 players out there and like most
• 7:30
  of these have already committed, but I mean, there are still some
• 7:34
  big I I don't know, all right, the biggest one, which I don't
• 7:37
  understand. I don't know if this is a great
• 7:38
  one, but if you guys have any thoughts on this, Brendan Sorsby
• 7:40
  to Texas Tech. I mean, it's not bad, but like
• 7:47
  you're, you're throwing that kind of money around.
• 7:49
  I think I would rather get Sam Levitt or you know.
• 7:54
  Hold on guys, you're assuming it's about the money.
• 7:56
  I'm sure Sorsby went to Texas Tech and loved the facilities
• 8:01
  and the campus. I'm sure he loves wherever the
• 8:04
  hell Texas Tech is located. Where?
• 8:06
  Where? Where are they?
• 8:07
  Are they in? Are they in San Antonio or
• 8:10
  Lubbock? Where?
• 8:11
  Lubbock, Right. Learn Lubbock.
• 8:12
  Yeah. Yeah.
• 8:13
  He loved the town. It's a busy bump in town, and
• 8:16
  that's why he went. It had nothing to do with the
• 8:17
  5,000,000 bucks. Come on.
• 8:19
  Yeah, it's 5 mil. I mean, Sam Levitt is still out
• 8:23
  there. I mean, I'm thinking Sam is
• 8:24
  going, Sam is going to LSU. He he's he, I, I would think
• 8:28
  that's where he's going. So I'm not sure they had chance
• 8:31
  at Sam, but if I had a choice, I would take Sam.
• 8:34
  But yeah, Brandon, is that that big of a deal for fight?
• 8:37
  I don't know. I agree it is.
• 8:40
  And the thing with demand when he entered, he's got a do not
• 8:42
  contact act, which means he knows where he's going.
• 8:44
  So like, you know, I mean, if Sam, you know, Sam Leavitt
• 8:50
  apparently already went to Kentucky, although I don't know
• 8:52
  why you would you would go there.
• 8:55
  Well, actually, no, that's that's unfair.
• 8:57
  That's that's an incorrect statement.
• 8:58
  Their new head coaches, the OC for Oregon.
• 9:01
  And last I checked, he did well with Bonex, Dylan Gabriel and
• 9:05
  Dante Moore. So maybe that is that's fair.
• 9:07
  That's a all right. So bad on me for bringing that
• 9:10
  up. I'm sure.
• 9:10
  But I mean 5. Million too.
• 9:12
  I mean it's. Well, regardless, The thing is,
• 9:16
  that guy could make you a pro quarterback.
• 9:18
  Yeah, because he had done. Multiple times, yes.
• 9:22
  Where he's going to be doing much better than 5 million,
• 9:24
  should somebody go there and take advantage of what that guy
• 9:27
  can do? So it makes sense.
• 9:30
  Yeah, from yeah, absolutely makes.
• 9:32
  Sense, yeah. But I mean, some of the things
• 9:34
  that we figured look like, I mean, Indiana looks like the big
• 9:37
  winner so far. They got Josh Hoover from TCU,
• 9:40
  They picked up Nick Marsh, the wide receiver.
• 9:42
  I mean, they're, you know, they're already rolling and
• 9:46
  they're just already look like they're already rolling well
• 9:47
  into 2026. So Iowa State, how bad do we
• 9:53
  feel for Iowa State? They've lost 19 people at last
• 9:56
  count just to Penn State, following Matt Campbell, who
• 10:01
  took the Penn State coaching job.
• 10:03
  But I mean, as Iowa State even made them a field of team at
• 10:05
  this point, they've got to be a fade for 2026, I would think,
• 10:11
  right? Yeah.
• 10:12
  I mean, it's just, you know, and there's some some minor
• 10:14
  quarterbacks that have been like Aiden Childs, Pete's favorite
• 10:17
  guy who can't seem to lead an offense.
• 10:19
  He's going to Northwestern. So that that that auto just
• 10:22
  bloom wonderfully. Colton Joseph, the Old Dominion
• 10:25
  guy, he's at Wisconsin. I don't know.
• 10:28
  How many years have we been sitting here waiting for
• 10:29
  Wisconsin to actually learn how to pass a ball.
• 10:31
  Maybe, maybe maybe they have somebody that can finally do
• 10:34
  that. Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss QB
• 10:38
  who lost his job a couple games in 'cause he got hurt.
• 10:40
  He's at Missouri now, you know, but you still got like some
• 10:45
  other non quarterbacks, although you got Cam Coleman, the Auburn
• 10:47
  wide receiver, probably the best non QB still out there.
• 10:50
  We're not sure where he's going. But I mean, any, any move you
• 10:53
  guys think that that that you saw that was just like, Yep,
• 10:57
  that might be a bet on team for me in 2026.
• 11:01
  Not Florida State. Yeah, I got the the kid from
• 11:04
  Auburn who went to Oklahoma first or whatever.
• 11:06
  I I put a little thing together for FSU there.
• 11:09
  There we go. We're doomed.
• 11:10
  So we had 30 players leave. The entire wide receiver room is
• 11:13
  going to be new next year, I guess everyone left.
• 11:16
  So defense every level. And so what's the kid's name in
• 11:23
  Auburn that they got? Did they get they got Ashton
• 11:26
  Daniels didn't. They yeah, that.
• 11:28
  Kid Ashton's, yeah, that's probably not great.
• 11:30
  Although I did say didn't they host DJ Lagway as well the other
• 11:34
  day? I think they, I think he's going
• 11:36
  to Virginia. I think it's the big Yeah I.
• 11:39
  Saw that earlier today. I think, oh, OK.
• 11:41
  That's new. I think Damon Williams is going
• 11:42
  to LSU. That's what they were saying on
• 11:44
  Sports Center. I'm pretty sure, pretty sure
• 11:48
  Diego Papi is going to be playing in the college till he's
• 11:50
  like 45. So yeah, that basket.
• 11:52
  Was he coming back again next? Year.
• 11:54
  No, he's suing, so he'll he'll. Probably he says he he said the
• 11:58
  bowl game was his last game, but I guess from his lawsuit he
• 12:00
  technically does have another year.
• 12:02
  Yeah, he'll, he'll keep doing that.
• 12:05
  He supposedly said that he's, I mean, he's done so much damage
• 12:09
  with his post Heisman nonsense. I mean.
• 12:11
  Nonsense. Yeah, it's just like, bro, you,
• 12:14
  you could probably come back. You're not going to make any
• 12:16
  money in the NFL with that attitude.
• 12:17
  They're they're probably all passing on you until like the
• 12:19
  seventh round. But yeah, but somebody.
• 12:20
  Will pay them to come. Back Oh, probably I'm just going
• 12:24
  to say this yeah, that could be I'm just going to say this.
• 12:28
  The one team that actually interests me a little and I
• 12:32
  believe their schedule sucks. So I, I, I don't know if I'm
• 12:34
  going to back this team or not, but I'm looking at Auburn
• 12:38
  because, you know, we talk about continuity from one year to the
• 12:41
  next. Well, the South Florida head
• 12:43
  coach, the South Florida offense coordinator and the South
• 12:46
  Florida quarterback, we're all on Auburn right now.
• 12:50
  So, and let's face it, Auburn, as much as we ragged them
• 12:53
  offensively, defensively they were really good.
• 12:56
  And that's the one coordinator they retained, they kept DJ
• 12:59
  Durkin. So I'm gonna that Auburn Baylor
• 13:03
  game in Week 1. I am going to be watching that
• 13:07
  from start to finish 'cause I'm dying to see what Auburn looks
• 13:10
  like. Hey, how about my Wolverines?
• 13:12
  I mean, we we have an actual coaching staff now who can coach
• 13:15
  up players. We retain all of our young
• 13:17
  talent and brought another talent, so everything I've been
• 13:21
  bitching about for the last year, I can't bitch about it
• 13:24
  anymore. So I want to see what happens.
• 13:27
  I want to see what these guys can do with the talent we have.
• 13:30
  So I'm excited about. This.
• 13:31
  Yeah, possibly I want to see. What happens?
• 13:35
  Sleeper to make the Big 10 title game.
• 13:37
  Man, if Dante Moore goes pro, you know, Ohio State, Caleb
• 13:40
  Downs just said he's entering the draft today.
• 13:42
  Julian's saying not like he played super good.
• 13:45
  I mean, if you're assuming Indiana's already going to be
• 13:47
  playing in it, they got to play somebody.
• 13:50
  All right. Oh.
• 13:51
  Yeah, all right. Michigan's not a bad option.
• 13:53
  I agree with that. No, also we move on to the semi
• 13:57
  finals. Sure.
• 14:00
  All right. Well, we got our first game here
• 14:02
  in Miami against Ole Miss. I think we're looking at the
• 14:07
  some of the bets we had this week.
• 14:08
  I think we're going to have a disagreement on this one.
• 14:10
  So Pete, if you want to start, we'll start with you for Miami
• 14:14
  and Ole Miss. Sure.
• 14:16
  I mean, so first of all, thank you for beating the Buckeyes.
• 14:20
  This is good. Yeah.
• 14:22
  So we were talking about it before we started here, right?
• 14:25
  It's it's interesting that Lane Kiffin has been trying to build
• 14:29
  a national championship team for a while, and I think he might
• 14:32
  have done it. I mean, this is a team that
• 14:35
  could potentially do it. They looked really good last
• 14:39
  week. So, yeah, I like how they look.
• 14:43
  I I I like how this team plays tempo.
• 14:47
  You know, obviously Miami looked really good, right.
• 14:49
  So I, I can't walk away from that team, but you know, Miami's
• 14:54
  sorry Ole misses red zone defense is is is good and I
• 14:58
  think that will play out in this game.
• 15:01
  I think Miami has been struggling late against teams
• 15:05
  that win first down and stay ahead of the schedule, which I
• 15:09
  think we're going to see here. So I like what I see again in
• 15:12
  this matchup. So I'm kind of leaning toward
• 15:17
  taking Ole Miss in the points and taking the under.
• 15:23
  I think we're going to see in both of these games, I'm
• 15:25
  prefacing a little bit, you know, these are two semi final
• 15:28
  games. I think you're going to be a
• 15:30
  little conservative, especially early on.
• 15:33
  So I think we're going to see suppression of point scoring in
• 15:36
  both of these games. This one not any different.
• 15:40
  So I do like the unders here in this game and I do like the
• 15:46
  point, especially with that hook, right, If it were three,
• 15:51
  make me a little nervous. I like that hook here.
• 15:53
  So I like Ole Miss and the hook 3 1/2.
• 15:56
  So I'm taking Ole Miss and the 3 1/2 and I'm taking the under in
• 16:00
  this game. I just like the way Ole Miss is
• 16:02
  playing. I honestly did not expect them
• 16:04
  to win this past week and the way they played, they've
• 16:08
  converted me a little bit. I like the way they played a
• 16:10
  lot. So that's my bet here.
• 16:12
  I got two of them. So Ole Miss Plus 3 1/2 and the
• 16:16
  Honor. And the under, well, I think we
• 16:20
  agree on the under, basically. I on the other hand, I think Ole
• 16:24
  Miss is going to get trucked after watching this game.
• 16:29
  I think that pass rush from Miami is the real deal #4 and
• 16:34
  Isadora, what's his name? Those I don't think Ole Miss
• 16:37
  isn't going to know what hit them.
• 16:39
  They run the ball well, I think they're going to do that.
• 16:41
  They're not going to let Carson Beck, you know, beat them.
• 16:45
  I'm thinking, I originally thought it was going to be like
• 16:47
  up there, like 27 to 20. But I'm thinking it's going to
• 16:49
  be more like, you know, 34 to 10 maybe if they're lucky.
• 16:54
  It's hard for me to say this. I can't stand Miami.
• 16:57
  I can make it official. They're back there.
• 17:01
  So once I say they're back, they're back.
• 17:04
  My God. Tim said Miami's back.
• 17:07
  Oh, put that on the clock. That's never.
• 17:09
  What's worse is that this isn't like the flashy Miami, this is
• 17:13
  like the responsible Miami. It's like, you know, seeing your
• 17:17
  ex like, you know, take up yoga and like lose 30 lbs.
• 17:20
  Learn how to budget a wallet that's like, you know, that's
• 17:23
  horrible. So.
• 17:24
  What about crystal ball? Crystal ball's not going to do a
• 17:26
  crystal ball somewhere here. It doesn't matter.
• 17:29
  This is what I've been telling for the last couple years.
• 17:31
  Eventually he's going to have a team with enough talent that not
• 17:35
  even he can mess it up. Like there's nothing he could
• 17:37
  do. I mean, short of punting on 2nd
• 17:40
  down or something, he's got, they're just too damn good right
• 17:46
  now. That kid, that Tony kid,
• 17:49
  Malachi, I mean that he's going to have a touchdown pass in this
• 17:53
  game too. I think he might have more TV
• 17:54
  passes in this game than Beck. I just see the defense shutting
• 17:58
  down Ole Miss and then Miami's going to have a home game for
• 18:03
  the championship. And they're, you know, depending
• 18:07
  who they're playing there, they're probably going to win
• 18:08
  that too. And my life will be hell.
• 18:10
  So but. Here for you.
• 18:13
  Yeah, it's, it's been a rough year.
• 18:15
  The football gods don't want me to have nice things.
• 18:17
  I've been saying that for a while.
• 18:18
  But you know, Ole Miss is going to try to speed the game up and
• 18:21
  Miami is going to be like, now we're good, we're good, we're
• 18:23
  good, just like this. So yeah, I don't know, Darren,
• 18:27
  if you have any thoughts on this one, but I got Ole Miss getting
• 18:30
  trucked. I went back and forth on this
• 18:32
  game probably a half a dozen times.
• 18:34
  Like I looked at Miami and I'm like, yeah, that defense is
• 18:38
  really, really good. Ole Miss has not seen a defense
• 18:41
  like this in in their two games so far.
• 18:43
  And then I look at Ole Miss and I'm like, wow, Miami's defense
• 18:46
  hasn't seen an offense like this in their two games so far
• 18:49
  either. So, you know, I looked at Miami.
• 18:52
  Yeah, you're right, Malachi, Tony's legit.
• 18:54
  I think it's going to be a huge Mark Fletcher game.
• 18:56
  If you're in a state where player props are a thing, I
• 18:59
  would look at over his rush total.
• 19:02
  But I mean, I still can't trust Carson Beck.
• 19:05
  I mean, in the two games they've played.
• 19:08
  Oh, yeah. OK Texas AM and Ohio State, both
• 19:10
  excellent defensive teams. And yeah, they're throwing for
• 19:12
  more than 138 yards either time. So I mean, you know, at some
• 19:16
  point, he's going to have to be relied on to make some plays
• 19:19
  and, you know, outside of some short passes and, you know, he
• 19:22
  hasn't really done that much. So, yeah, I wasn't really sure
• 19:25
  where to go with Miami. And again, Ole Miss, great.
• 19:28
  You. You played great against
• 19:30
  Georgia. Trinidad Chambliss looks like
• 19:32
  he's playing on Madden at this point in the season.
• 19:37
  But then again, you know, Georgia, I thought George's
• 19:40
  defense was going to continue to improve.
• 19:42
  This dude shredded them. I mean, my God, he made them
• 19:45
  look like, you know, George has never played defense before.
• 19:49
  So, you know, I don't know what to expect from this game.
• 19:52
  So. And I was talking to you guys
• 19:54
  about this. Or before we started.
• 19:56
  Yeah. We always say, yeah, we're we're
• 19:58
  fans first. I think I'm I'm going to watch
• 20:01
  this one as a fan. I'm not a Carson Beck guy, I'm
• 20:04
  not a Cristobal guy, I'm not a the you guy.
• 20:08
  And the fan in me wants to see Kiffin kind of get it stuck to
• 20:14
  him. I mean, dude left.
• 20:15
  Oh, I wanna make a national championship team.
• 20:17
  Dude, you could have one and you bolted.
• 20:20
  So still getting paid though. Yeah, that's yeah.
• 20:24
  Every time they win he gets more and more money, which just seems
• 20:27
  ridiculous. I mean, you bolt mid season, you
• 20:29
  you should not be entitled to that, but he is.
• 20:33
  But yeah, the fan in me wants to see Ole Miss win and move on.
• 20:37
  The better in me always says defense wins championships and I
• 20:42
  give the huge AS to Miami there. So I'm not going to stress out
• 20:46
  tomorrow night about this one. I will listen to you 2 stress
• 20:50
  back and forth in our little group chat and I will probably
• 20:55
  blocking both of you midway through the third quarter.
• 20:58
  I have no play on this so. Looking at Miami, I'm getting
• 21:03
  like those old Raven teams by vibes, you know?
• 21:05
  Like, you know, they won with Trent Dilfer.
• 21:07
  You know, that's how good the team they are.
• 21:10
  They had Trent Dilfer and they still won.
• 21:12
  You know, they have Carson back and they're still going to win.
• 21:14
  I'm not going to stress his bet too much.
• 21:16
  It's going to suck that Miami's going to win, but I think it's
• 21:19
  over midway through the third. I think they put the back well
• 21:22
  could. Yeah.
• 21:24
  Let it go. I just don't.
• 21:25
  I don't see Miami letting Ole Miss go up and down the field on
• 21:29
  them like that. So, but we shall see.
• 21:32
  That's why they play the games. So all right, and no final
• 21:37
  thoughts. We'll move on to Friday night.
• 21:40
  Oregon, Indiana. It's going to be a shootout for
• 21:44
  this one looks like. Darren, let's start with you on
• 21:46
  this game. What are you thinking?
• 21:48
  Yeah, I don't know if if I see a shootout here.
• 21:52
  I did. This was my only bet.
• 21:54
  I did lay the 3 1/2 with Indiana and and for a couple reasons.
• 21:58
  The good thing about this is we do actually have a a data point
• 22:01
  that we can look back at. We all remember Indiana going
• 22:04
  into Oregon and coming out with a 30 to 20 victory.
• 22:08
  Checking the box score, really nothing kind of jumped out to
• 22:12
  me. Turnovers 2 to one.
• 22:15
  Neither quarterback really set the world on fire.
• 22:17
  I mean Mendoza barely broke 200 yards neither run game.
• 22:21
  Surprised they didn't do anything either.
• 22:23
  I think Indiana only averaged like 3 yards carry and Oregon's
• 22:25
  was actually less than that. But two things I like about
• 22:30
  Indiana in this match up. And I know Pete, I, I know you
• 22:33
  disagree with me and that's totally cool.
• 22:35
  I, I love when, when the disagreements happen here.
• 22:38
  But you got to remember Indiana, they won that game by 10.
• 22:40
  But you know, 7 of Oregon's points came on a pick 6.
• 22:44
  So you, you take that away. I mean, Indiana really did kind
• 22:47
  of corral Dante Moore in the Oregon offense.
• 22:50
  He was Dante Moore was sacked 6 times in this game.
• 22:52
  He was only sacked like 15 times all year.
• 22:54
  So 40% of the times he went down we're because of Indiana.
• 22:58
  I mean that defense is insanely legit.
• 23:02
  And the other reason is Oregon's running game, man, their their
• 23:05
  depth is taking a hit. What's his name here?
• 23:10
  Jordan Davison. He's out for this game.
• 23:12
  He was second on the team in rushing, first in touchdowns
• 23:16
  with 15 rushing touchdowns that need to be replaced.
• 23:19
  And Makai Hughes and Jayden Lamarr are both in the portal.
• 23:22
  So they are down 3 running backs going into this game.
• 23:25
  So for a team that only averaged like 2 point something yards
• 23:29
  carry in the first match up, now they're down 3 running backs,
• 23:32
  including their main guy who scores the touchdowns for them.
• 23:35
  So I think Oregon might be coming into this a little
• 23:38
  one-dimensional. I do like their receivers
• 23:42
  though. I do like their tight end.
• 23:43
  I think they're excellent. It's just a matter of is Dante
• 23:45
  Morgan gonna have time to get the ball to them?
• 23:47
  If not, they're in for a long day.
• 23:50
  So yeah, give me give me Indiana here.
• 23:52
  Something just tells me this is it.
• 23:55
  It's just Indiana's year, man. I mean, it might be they're
• 23:59
  just, they're just on a roll, man.
• 24:01
  So yeah, I I laid the 3 1/2 with Indiana here.
• 24:05
  Peter, any thoughts? Many thoughts.
• 24:09
  And the first one is not specifically related to this.
• 24:11
  This is the first year in a long time that the four teams
• 24:15
  remaining, I don't dislike any of them.
• 24:18
  I don't care who wins. So this is kind of nice.
• 24:21
  There's no Buckeyes involved. There's nobody that I hate.
• 24:23
  This is great there. And to your point, what we've
• 24:27
  seen for a long time in football is when you have a good coaching
• 24:31
  staff, it's hard to repeat the same thing.
• 24:35
  Yes, Indiana put a ton of pressure on Oregon and earlier
• 24:40
  this year do that again, would suggest that Oregon's coaching
• 24:45
  staff does not find a way to compensate for that.
• 24:48
  And I think they're going to, right.
• 24:50
  I think they're going to find a way to compensate for that.
• 24:52
  They're going to check it down, they're going to do some
• 24:54
  screens, they're going to do some stuff to break that apart
• 24:58
  and that will change the game a bit.
• 25:01
  Now, I what you said before, I do in a way think it might be
• 25:06
  Indiana this year, right? So I'm kind of betting against
• 25:09
  myself a little bit here. Hint, hint.
• 25:12
  I'm taking India, taking Oregon to the points and the under.
• 25:16
  But so I do kind of feel like there's this kind of swell that
• 25:20
  it feels like Indiana's year, but Oregon has continued all
• 25:26
  year out kick what I thought they could do.
• 25:30
  And so this is the point where I feel like I have to bet with it.
• 25:34
  I have to because they continue to be better than I thought they
• 25:38
  would be, right? They continue to outperform.
• 25:41
  They continue to step up and I can't think they.
• 25:43
  Will. And so at this point, I am going
• 25:47
  to, I'm going to give them some props, right?
• 25:49
  I'm going to take the points. I'm going to take Oregon.
• 25:52
  They have continued to step up. I love their coaching staff.
• 25:55
  I, I just, I like the way they respond to pretty much any
• 26:00
  challenge. So I, I really like that.
• 26:03
  So I could be entirely wrong. As I said, I, I, I don't have a
• 26:08
  horse in this race. At the end of the day, I don't
• 26:10
  really care who wins this thing. So anyway, I got 2 bets here
• 26:14
  again, right? I am taking Oregon and the
• 26:16
  points and I'm taking the under because I do think in these
• 26:21
  games there's going to be some conservative conservatism in
• 26:25
  play. And I do think that will play
• 26:28
  into Oregon here, a little conservatism, all of that.
• 26:32
  That's going to do this defense is ridiculously good.
• 26:35
  Got that. So they're going to slow it
• 26:36
  Oregon down. But I do think we're going to
• 26:38
  see some on the same on the other side as well.
• 26:40
  So so yeah, Oregon +4 and the under.
• 26:46
  All right, I want to go on to get my picks.
• 26:48
  We're going to disagree again, and I've got, I'm right with
• 26:51
  Indiana here with Darren on that.
• 26:54
  You know, they convert 55% on 3rd down, so they're the best in
• 26:58
  the country at that. They're going to stay on the
• 27:00
  field a lot. Oregon is explosive.
• 27:03
  They're very efficient. They can score in a hurry.
• 27:07
  But Indiana is built to stop teams like that.
• 27:11
  They have great discipline. They play with good tempo, they
• 27:15
  win the turnover battle a little bit.
• 27:18
  As far as the over goes, this doesn't have to be a giant
• 27:20
  shootout. I mean, if for the over to hit.
• 27:23
  So I like the over of 46 1/2 basically.
• 27:27
  I can see the score being, you know, you know, 2824 or
• 27:30
  something like that. So I'm actually going to go
• 27:34
  opposite with you. I'm going to take the over and
• 27:37
  I'm going to take Indiana laying the 3 1/2.
• 27:40
  Any final thoughts for Darren or Pete?
• 27:42
  Any? I just got a couple.
• 27:45
  I mean, like I said, you know what both of you guys said, you
• 27:47
  know, excellent points. I agree with that.
• 27:49
  But if you look at that box score, like nobody on Oregon
• 27:54
  really like stood out. Like all their big playmakers
• 27:56
  kind of got bottled up. You know, they didn't have a
• 28:00
  wide receiver with more than 44 yards.
• 28:02
  They didn't have a running back with over 60 yards.
• 28:05
  Yeah, you look at the at the Indiana side, Omar Cooper, who's
• 28:08
  actually a really good receiver, quietly had seven for 58.
• 28:11
  But Elijah Cerat went eight for 1/21 with a touchdown.
• 28:14
  I So if Oregon can make those adjustments, and I agree with
• 28:17
  Pete, they've they've got excellent coordinators now
• 28:20
  they've got Indiana on film, they can certainly make those
• 28:23
  adjustments. But if they focus on Cerat, does
• 28:27
  Cooper go off? I mean, if they try and stop
• 28:29
  Mendoza from running, does Hemby have an amazing day?
• 28:33
  I mean this, I just, I mean, I don't want to say Indian's got
• 28:39
  more weapons because I don't think they do.
• 28:41
  I think they're pretty even as far as the talent on the on the
• 28:43
  skill positions. But I mean, Indiana rolled into
• 28:47
  Oregon place that very few people go and win and they they
• 28:51
  shut that offense down. I mean, now we're on a neutral
• 28:54
  field Landing, you know, we pick on Franklin.
• 28:57
  You know, Landing hasn't had as as much experience, but he's
• 29:01
  like O and two against the spread and O and two straight up
• 29:04
  on a neutral field underdog. So if you're a trends guy, maybe
• 29:07
  consider that. I just, yeah, if Oregon makes
• 29:11
  the adjustments, then Pete's going to hit this without
• 29:14
  sweating. If Signetti and his staff are
• 29:18
  like, OK, this is what Oregon's going to do to stop us, Let's do
• 29:20
  this. Dante Moore and Oregon's
• 29:24
  coordinators are in for for another long day, but these.
• 29:27
  Are going to be two really fun games.
• 29:30
  Honestly these these matchups are fun.
• 29:34
  I can't wait to watch these two games.
• 29:36
  I have a question for you guys. Does is the national, are we
• 29:39
  looking at the national champion?
• 29:40
  Whoever comes out of this game, are they, are they shoe in?
• 29:45
  Well, I don't know. I don't know.
• 29:49
  If they're playing Ole Miss, yes, I think both of these teams
• 29:52
  can beat Ole Miss playing Miami in Miami, I don't think.
• 29:56
  That that's a challenge, yeah. That's going to be tough.
• 29:58
  And that's a home game for Miami that that's going to be a
• 30:01
  challenge for anybody. Going right back to 1986, you
• 30:05
  know, the Orange Bowl for the championship.
• 30:06
  Oh look, it's Miami against Oklahoma or Penn State or
• 30:09
  whoever they had to. Play it's.
• 30:11
  They get a home game, it's gotta love it so. 1986 the last time
• 30:15
  my back didn't hurt. But you still had the shovel
• 30:20
  snow, so there you go. 6:15 in the morning baby, welcome to New
• 30:24
  York. God the state sucks.
• 30:26
  Anyway, all right, guys, let's wrap this up a little bit.
• 30:33
  So let's do our picks, Peter. Go first.
• 30:37
  Yeah, I went all in with. Everything here, so Ole Miss.
• 30:41
  Plus 3 1/2 with Miami and I took the under in that game as well.
• 30:46
  Oregon plus 4 1/2 over Indiana and I took the under in that
• 30:49
  game as. Well, I also pretty much almost
• 30:54
  did everything opposite of you. I got Miami -3 1/2 over Ole Miss
• 30:58
  and I've got the under in that game 52 2 points and Indiana -3
• 31:04
  1/2 over Oregon and I have Oregon and Indiana hitting the
• 31:07
  over of 46 1/2. Darren.
• 31:10
  Yeah, I'm donating and whopping one play to this week's show
• 31:13
  here. First of all, shout out to
• 31:15
  Arizona after I gave you out as as a pick in your bowl game.
• 31:19
  You have like 11 people opt out eight hours before kickoff.
• 31:22
  Thanks a lot guys. Be looking to bet against you
• 31:24
  with all my hearts next year. You mastered, But yeah, I I am
• 31:29
  laying 3 1/2 with Indiana. Yeah, exactly.
• 31:32
  I texted you guys out like they're not even watching.
• 31:34
  I'm going to bed. Yeah, Indiana laying the 3 1/2
• 31:37
  over at work. All right, that'll do it.
• 31:40
  Don't forget to send your questions to cfpdudes@yahoo.com
• 31:44
  for the live stream coming up with Mark from Coach's Hot Seat.
• 31:49
  Thank you all for listening. We'll be back as we get down to
• 31:52
  the gritty going to the finals. Thanks again and we'll see you
• 31:55
  next week.