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Elections numbers analysis · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Drive home with John Perlman on 702. Let's walk the talk.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Well, let's look at some of the other interesting numbers
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: as the picture starts to unfold. Just to update you
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: where we are in terms of the national count, 87%
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: of votes have been counted. If you look specifically at
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: the province of Gauteng, we're on 71%. And let's just
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: give you KZN because particularly the city of Etigwini is
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: of great interest. KZN is on 87% of the count,
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: but Etigwini trailing somewhat on 58%, although they're making some headway.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: But let's look at the numbers. Now, a little while back,
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: as we were building up to the elections, you may
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: recall we looked at one of the first and most
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: interesting polls looking ahead today. to what might happen in
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the election in the metros, but more broadly as well.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: It was the joint efforts of News24, but also of
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  Speaker 2: a company called the SABI Strategy Group. We're joined now
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: by Director of SABI, Jonathan Moakes. A very good afternoon
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: to you. You've been looking at the numbers. You looked
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: at the opinion polls. Variance between what you guys expected
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: to happen in the metros and what is happening now.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: At the time, you said a long way to go.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Things can still happen. But how close were you? Good
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: afternoon to you.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Good afternoon, John. Good to be with you.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think broadly speaking on the ANC
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: and DA numbers nationally and across the metros, I think
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: we were broadly there for Johannesburg, for Cape Town, for
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Twane and Etaqueni, although MK, I think, underperformed nationally.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I think the one area that we didn't see.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: Coming, and I think a number of pollsters also may
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: have missed this, is the extent of Action SA's success
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: and traction, particularly in Gauteng, and the extent of the
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: EFF's drop. And I think that may have had something
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: to do with campaigning and issues in the final four.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: To five weeks. with what we produced at the time.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a very interesting set of numbers. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: Action is a... What do you make of that in
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  Speaker 2: terms of not just the numbers they're putting up in
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: terms of percentages, but where they're actually making a substantial difference?
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think when we did the original polling,
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: I think what was notable in Chwani was the high
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: net favourability of the incumbent mayor, Nisipi Moya. You may
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: recall we did a head-to-head question where she was actually viewed,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: I think, by 26% of voters as the mayor that.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: They wanted versus 24% for Celia Brink.
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: And that 26% number is quite interestingly very similar to
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: where Action USA will actually end up on the Metro,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: which is about 24%. So I think there's a lot
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: to be said for the favorability of her. And then
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: I think if you look at Tembisa in particular in Akuraleni,
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  Speaker 3: it's not just the ANC that's been hurt by Action USA,
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: but the EFF. And I think I have a bit
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: of a hypothesis there. that I think Action SA's positioning
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: on immigration has had a lot to do with that
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: versus the EFF's position.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: On immigration, which is, as you know, far more pan-African.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And I think you can.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: Actually see the resonance of that issue showing through in
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  Speaker 3: Action SA's results.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you a hugely broad question. And
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  Speaker 2: if you want to say either you must be kidding
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: or go and narrow it down. But what are these
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: elections telling us? Obviously, at the central thread, not for
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the first time, we can trace a line, I think,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: all the way back to the metros in 2021, that
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: this is the ANC no longer a monolith. But in
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: terms of what people are voting for, and not just
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: what they're voting to put behind them. What's your sense
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: of what people are voting for? And I would assume
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: it could be more than one thing.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think they're voting. This will sound
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: overly simplistic, John, but I think they're voting for better
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: services and ironically, a better life. And I think, you know,
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: to the point that you're making, it's incredibly fragmented. A
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  Speaker 3: lot of previous ANC voters across the country have made
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  Speaker 3: somewhat rational decisions of who's actually best and most likely
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  Speaker 3: to cause a bit of pain to the ANC. I mean,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: I think what was Particularly fascinating for me is the
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  Speaker 3: UDM's results in Buffalo City, where they're going to be
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: the second biggest party. They've kind of grown by almost 18,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: 17 points. You look at the particular residents of the
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: SACP in the Eastern Cape, you look at some of
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: these smaller.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Community-based parties like Service Delivery.
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  Speaker 3: I think people have sort of made a decision that
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  Speaker 3: we need to vote against the ANC, but then have
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  Speaker 3: made a decision as to who best in their community
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: is the best place to be able to do that
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and to bring the services. And I think what's going
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  Speaker 3: to be really, really fascinating about the period immediately after
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  Speaker 3: this election is that voters have made a big shift.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Voters that vote, of course, have made a big shift.
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  Speaker 3: And I think we'll hold parties quite accountable as we
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  Speaker 3: move to 2029 and beyond.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you mentioned Buffalo City. I mean, the
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: ANC's fall there was 20%, I think. They were close
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: to 60%. They're just around 40% now. I'm just looking
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: at Mangaung, where the ANC is on 32%, and I'm
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: just checking their 2021. Again, it's almost a 20% fall.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is quite precipitous. Yeah, I mean, it's
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: really incredible.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, we certainly at Sabi expected the ANC to
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: drop in this election, but not as significantly in places
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: like Buffalo City.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: And I mean, even if you look at some of the.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: Rural areas, you know, there's a lot of VDs that
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: the ANC has lost in its rural areas.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Vantage point is crumbling.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, at the time, I think that we're talking,
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: the ANC is tracking at about 47% in the Eastern Cape.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: They're tracking at about 37% in the Free State. They're
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: hovering very, very low in Pumalanga in the Northwest, which,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: you know, Pumalanga was, I think, one of the provinces
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: in 2021 where there were very little hung councils. So
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: it really is not just an urban phenomenon. It's a
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: national phenomenon, which is quite a shift.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Very interesting update from Jonathan Moog's
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: director of SABI Strategy Group. And they put together a
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: survey in partnership with News24. We had a conversation with
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: News24' s Carol Payton at the time they released this stuff.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: And by and large, it seems their predictions are correct.