Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Doubles Down On His Base + Cuba, Not Iran… Could Be Trump’s Foreign Policy Win

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Doubles Down On His Base + Cuba, Not Iran… Could Be Trump’s Foreign Policy Win · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: They're Happy Thursday, and potentially for me, it's the last
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Speaker 1: episode drop of the week. I obviously will have my
1:58
Speaker 1: newsphere and all this stuff, So Happy Thursday. This is
2:01
Speaker 1: my sort of extended weekend drop of the Chuck Toodcast.
2:06
Speaker 1: Got a little more State of the Union fallout, a
2:08
Speaker 1: little more Iran and Cuba fall up, but a primary
2:11
Speaker 1: focus I want to make is get you ready for
2:13
Speaker 1: all things Texas primaries. We'll start that, we'll do a
2:18
Speaker 1: lot of it. Next week. We are days away, we're
2:21
Speaker 1: no longer weeks away from the official start of the
2:24
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six primary season. And if you're a political
2:28
Speaker 1: junkie and you're signed up for me on this, I
2:32
Speaker 1: know what the expectations are. So we're gonna we're gonna
2:34
Speaker 1: dig into the numbers, We're gonna dig into the weeds.
2:36
Speaker 1: We're going to see some interesting, interesting closing ad by
2:42
Speaker 1: mister tall Rico on that side. And of course we've
2:45
Speaker 1: got such a week. We know the Republicans are going
2:48
Speaker 1: to a runoff. What we don't know is whether the
2:51
Speaker 1: Democrats end up in a runoff. And I will get
2:53
Speaker 1: to that in a bit. And I, you know, I
2:57
Speaker 1: have a you know, normally, I right, I sort of
3:00
Speaker 1: end my weekend with a little bit and I get
3:03
Speaker 1: a lot more notes saying that I've made some of
3:05
Speaker 1: you college football fans, or at least more conversant on
3:09
Speaker 1: college football. Obviously, I'm not going to I promised I
3:13
Speaker 1: wouldn't be, you know, doing the off season, you know,
3:17
Speaker 1: nil scandal of the week. So instead, let's just say
3:22
Speaker 1: I have some strong opinions about the nominations for the
3:25
Speaker 1: Rock and Roll Hall of fame, but we will put
3:27
Speaker 1: that towards the end, but let me start with sort
3:31
Speaker 1: of the initial fallout from sort of after a day
3:35
Speaker 1: of the State of the Union. You know, you know,
3:36
Speaker 1: I gave you my initial thoughts literally about fifteen minutes
3:41
Speaker 1: after Abigail Spanberger said good night on that, So those
3:46
Speaker 1: were fresh perspectives without sort of and it really was
3:50
Speaker 1: sort of in many ways a derivative of the live
3:53
Speaker 1: stream that Crystalis and I did in partnership with c
3:56
Speaker 1: Span and YouTube, which, by the way, we just had
3:59
Speaker 1: a blast doing that, And once again, thank you to
4:02
Speaker 1: see Span and YouTube for providing this opportunity where we
4:06
Speaker 1: could literally do a little Manning cast meets Mystery Science
4:09
Speaker 1: Theater three thousand and I. You know, I'd like to
4:11
Speaker 1: think we sort of that we we took the assignment.
4:16
Speaker 1: We weren't overly snarky. We try to be fun but
4:20
Speaker 1: also relevant, analytical when necessary, in quizzical, you name it.
4:26
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to overdo it on live stream
4:30
Speaker 1: events that aren't about primary nights or election nights. But
4:34
Speaker 1: if there are other big nights that you'd like to
4:38
Speaker 1: see something like that, and if you're curious of how
4:41
Speaker 1: we did it. The whole stream is available with Crystaliz's
4:45
Speaker 1: YouTube channel, and we'll have some links on all of
4:48
Speaker 1: our socials as well. But I say that because what
4:54
Speaker 1: I take away on the on the first day after
4:56
Speaker 1: a State of the Union is what do the two
5:00
Speaker 1: parties want to talk about in the wake of the
5:02
Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in particular right like, what
5:06
Speaker 1: do certainly when you look at it from the perspective
5:08
Speaker 1: of Trump, what does the Trump White House want to
5:12
Speaker 1: be the second day story? And I think it's pretty clear,
5:16
Speaker 1: and it now sort of reinforces sort of what I
5:19
Speaker 1: believe the mission was on Tuesday night, and that was
5:23
Speaker 1: to try to essentially get the base back back into
5:28
Speaker 1: the high eighties low nineties in his approval rating rather
5:32
Speaker 1: than where it started to slip depending on the poll
5:35
Speaker 1: you look like load to mid eighties, even high seventies.
5:38
Speaker 1: There had definitely been some erosion, not a collapse, but
5:42
Speaker 1: an erosion in his base, and it was sort of
5:44
Speaker 1: an accumulation. Whether it's Iran, whether it's Epstein files, whether
5:48
Speaker 1: it's Venezuela, you know, some of these, or frankly just
5:52
Speaker 1: affordability itself, the tariffs, you name it. You know there
5:56
Speaker 1: was some sluggishness, and it was when you see the
6:01
Speaker 1: White House and how what they wanted to showcase, right,
6:03
Speaker 1: They think they had a visual, you know, sort of
6:07
Speaker 1: social media moment there where Donald Trump dared the Democrats
6:11
Speaker 1: to stand up when given the sort of Sophie choice
6:15
Speaker 1: of you know, are you going to protect Americans first
6:17
Speaker 1: or anybody when it comes to violence or whatever it is,
6:23
Speaker 1: And they clearly enjoyed that contrast. And in fact, I
6:26
Speaker 1: do think and I can't remember if I said this
6:29
Speaker 1: to you guys last night on the live stream or
6:32
Speaker 1: in my on the podcast itself, the Wednesday edition, but
6:37
Speaker 1: the speech really wasn't coherent. What it was was a
6:41
Speaker 1: series of social media moments, right, and when you you know,
6:45
Speaker 1: you go back, and I think I said this before.
6:47
Speaker 1: I think there was a bit of they loaded it
6:49
Speaker 1: up right with with the lou Rawls Parade of Stars mindset, right,
6:53
Speaker 1: and they loaded it up with people who are more
6:58
Speaker 1: popular than the president. Right. So it was allowed him
7:01
Speaker 1: to soak in reflective glory, but sort of almost as
7:06
Speaker 1: much as he loves the spotlight, you know, try to
7:08
Speaker 1: try to share see if he could draft off of
7:11
Speaker 1: the popularity of the Olympic team, the popularity of medal
7:14
Speaker 1: of honor folks, the popularity of someone who rescues a
7:16
Speaker 1: little girl during those horrific floods in Texas. It's, you know,
7:23
Speaker 1: not a new strategy, but this was a very aggressive
7:25
Speaker 1: version of it. And when you really look back at it,
7:28
Speaker 1: and it really was more was not a speech, right,
7:31
Speaker 1: There was not a beginning, middle, and end that was
7:33
Speaker 1: very coherent. What it was was a series of social
7:36
Speaker 1: media moments, right, And it was very clippable, and it
7:40
Speaker 1: was clear that that that's what they decided to make
7:44
Speaker 1: the speech about. And they wanted some visuals and they
7:49
Speaker 1: wanted some moments and okay, and it was about sewing
7:53
Speaker 1: up the base because they didn't talk to the middle
7:55
Speaker 1: very well. They didn't talk about the top issue in
7:59
Speaker 1: any credible way, right he went. He basically chose the
8:03
Speaker 1: Joe Biden route of touting the economy. Hey, it's great.
8:07
Speaker 1: Have you seen how wages are up and unemployment is down?
8:11
Speaker 1: Where I mean? My friend Casey Hunt Hunter the CNN
8:14
Speaker 1: show The Arena, which I was a panelist on, yes
8:18
Speaker 1: on on where are my Wednesday? Sorry, my days of
8:21
Speaker 1: the week are bloring together? On Wednesday, she did an
8:24
Speaker 1: interesting side by side from Biden's last State of the
8:27
Speaker 1: Union in twenty twenty four, where he is still an
8:30
Speaker 1: active candidate for reelection, and it was all about trying
8:33
Speaker 1: to sell you know that, hey, his economic plan was working,
8:36
Speaker 1: and they were trying to convince the public, Hey, the
8:38
Speaker 1: economy was better than you think it is. And here's
8:41
Speaker 1: Donald Trump trying to do the same thing. And it
8:45
Speaker 1: was a really well done side by side, and it
8:51
Speaker 1: was only it only reinforced my belief that on the
8:55
Speaker 1: economic issue, this speech did nothing, not only didn't move
8:59
Speaker 1: the needle, might have been a negative impact on that front.
9:06
Speaker 1: The other thing worth noting is the one big initiative, right.
9:10
Speaker 1: There was a series of that many new ideas that
9:14
Speaker 1: the President announced, but there was a couple that seemed concrete.
9:19
Speaker 1: One is this proposal with AI data centers to make
9:21
Speaker 1: the AI companies find their own sources of power and
9:24
Speaker 1: pay for their own sources of power so that you
9:27
Speaker 1: and I don't keep subsidizing them, which we all are
9:29
Speaker 1: right now, particularly those of us that pay electric bills. Hey,
9:33
Speaker 1: Dominion Power, we are getting hosed right now by all
9:36
Speaker 1: these data centers in Ladden County on this front, and
9:39
Speaker 1: everybody in northern Virginia knows it. And what should scare
9:42
Speaker 1: Congress is that there's a whole bunch of people getting
9:45
Speaker 1: screwed to electric bills that actually work for members of Congress.
9:48
Speaker 1: So I promise you this is an issue that isn't
9:51
Speaker 1: going to go away, since it actually is going to
9:53
Speaker 1: be impacting people that work in the White House, work
9:55
Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill, work in various parts of government. But
9:59
Speaker 1: the other thing he announced was this idea that Jada
10:02
Speaker 1: Vance was going to be sort of, I guess a
10:03
Speaker 1: frauds are, And it was clear what it was about.
10:06
Speaker 1: It was about Minnesota. They really want to They really
10:10
Speaker 1: even though Minnesota, I would argue, has now flipped against
10:13
Speaker 1: the President. Where when you say Minneapolis, the first thing
10:17
Speaker 1: I think voters think of are the two dead Americans
10:20
Speaker 1: and by the hands of Ice agents. But they continue
10:23
Speaker 1: to believe there is a contrast, whether it's elon Omar
10:26
Speaker 1: or Tim Walls, and what they believe is somehow fraud
10:32
Speaker 1: that is related to immigration. And you had this announcement
10:38
Speaker 1: with JD Vance, who's the frauds are that said that
10:40
Speaker 1: they are going to essentially suspend some of the federal
10:44
Speaker 1: money that is legally appropriated to the state of Minnesota
10:47
Speaker 1: when it comes to Medicaid, until they produce whatever proof
10:52
Speaker 1: that Jade Vance wants them to produce. What's interesting was
10:56
Speaker 1: what they did is clearly illegal. A won't take you know,
11:01
Speaker 1: you've got to quickly run to a court. You'll get
11:03
Speaker 1: the saying the White House can't do this. They got
11:05
Speaker 1: to release the funds, et cetera, et cetera. But I
11:07
Speaker 1: think that's the feature. This is exactly what right the
11:11
Speaker 1: White House wants to bait the governor of Minnesota, bait
11:15
Speaker 1: all Minnesota Democrats into having this stand up. They clearly
11:20
Speaker 1: want this contrast. It only helps them with the base,
11:25
Speaker 1: It does not help them with the middle, and it
11:28
Speaker 1: only reinforces my belief here that this that the State
11:31
Speaker 1: of the Union strategy was truly just repairing the base,
11:36
Speaker 1: and honestly, for a midterm election, it's not the worst
11:39
Speaker 1: political strategy. You know, if Donald Trump were a better politician,
11:44
Speaker 1: and when it comes to being nimble, he's not very good. Right.
11:47
Speaker 1: What he's good is Johnny one note doing his thing
11:49
Speaker 1: with his base. He does not pivot very well. He
11:52
Speaker 1: doesn't do you know. My friend Brad Todd wrote a
11:55
Speaker 1: terrific substack of saying what he would like to see
11:57
Speaker 1: from the President. He didn't get what he wanted to say. See,
12:02
Speaker 1: he doesn't pivot on these things, and it's clear that
12:07
Speaker 1: that he isn't going to do. But if he's your client, right,
12:11
Speaker 1: if you're the White House staff him, you got to
12:13
Speaker 1: prepare him, then you want to do what you have
12:15
Speaker 1: to do, which is, you know what, He's more comfortable
12:18
Speaker 1: playing base politics. He's more comfortable trying to pick a
12:21
Speaker 1: fight with the base of the Democratic Party, make at
12:24
Speaker 1: the base of the Democrats versus the base of the Republicans.
12:27
Speaker 1: That's his comfort zone, right to create the straw man
12:31
Speaker 1: of the left in order for the right to beat
12:34
Speaker 1: up on them. And what it does is it sort
12:37
Speaker 1: of minimizes friction inside the Republican party. Right, that is
12:41
Speaker 1: a safe place to be. And it really turns out
12:43
Speaker 1: that the state of the Union, in some ways it
12:45
Speaker 1: was a very risk averse state of the Union by
12:48
Speaker 1: the president. All he did was play one note to
12:51
Speaker 1: the base without too much attempt at actually trying to
12:56
Speaker 1: be president of all people any of that stuff. But
12:59
Speaker 1: that is never been his mo So if your Republican
13:04
Speaker 1: political strategist. This is probably the best you could hope for.
13:09
Speaker 1: He didn't make things worse picking fights with fellow Republicans.
13:13
Speaker 1: If he had turned it into the Festivus State of
13:15
Speaker 1: the Union, I got some real problems with you people,
13:18
Speaker 1: right which there's a small part of all of you
13:21
Speaker 1: that actually would have enjoyed seeing grievance, you know, the
13:24
Speaker 1: festivust version of Donald Trump and politics in the State
13:27
Speaker 1: of the Union. But that would have been an unmitigated
13:30
Speaker 1: disaster for his party. If he's attacking Supreme Court justices,
13:33
Speaker 1: attacking Thomas Massey, attacking you know, fellow Republicans. That that
13:37
Speaker 1: wouldn't have that that only would have caused more adjeta.
13:42
Speaker 1: But he also sort of left. But he did, you know,
13:44
Speaker 1: the downside of what he did. While he didn't cause
13:47
Speaker 1: new problems for the Republicans, there is no agenda to
13:50
Speaker 1: run on it, is it. I mean, there's no new
13:56
Speaker 1: He didn't the President didn't really issue a call for
14:01
Speaker 1: action by Congress. Okay, past the stock trading band, Well,
14:04
Speaker 1: that's all gummed up by leadership right now, that's ready
14:06
Speaker 1: to go. It's leadership that is choking on that issue
14:11
Speaker 1: because I think many of them aren't ready to give
14:13
Speaker 1: up their stock trades, to be perfectly frank, and you know,
14:18
Speaker 1: so it is what are they going to do if
14:22
Speaker 1: they keep Congress. They don't really have an agenda beyond that.
14:26
Speaker 1: So that is the downside of this strategy by the president.
14:31
Speaker 1: One more note. One of my favorite daily newsletters that
14:36
Speaker 1: I read is called news Items by John Ellis. I've
14:40
Speaker 1: known John Ellis, he worked, He was a Fox News
14:42
Speaker 1: election analyst for decades. Really smart about this stuff. Happens
14:45
Speaker 1: to be by the way, yes, John Ellis, he happens
14:48
Speaker 1: to be a part of the Bush clan. He is
14:51
Speaker 1: first cousins with Jeb and George W. Bush. He had
14:57
Speaker 1: an interesting essay this earlier on Wednesday, basically not understanding
15:03
Speaker 1: what the president is up to with Iran, and I
15:06
Speaker 1: think it was a really smart I mean, I'm going
15:09
Speaker 1: to read his lead here in his app and it
15:14
Speaker 1: was his post is titled Iran, Cuba and American Politics
15:18
Speaker 1: and then with the little subtlely the fifty first state.
15:21
Speaker 1: And I'll get to quickly, but let me read his
15:25
Speaker 1: lead because it does get at to the head scratchers
15:30
Speaker 1: that a lot of people have about what we're up to.
15:31
Speaker 1: Right now with Iran. It's passing strange politically speaking, that
15:36
Speaker 1: President Trump has chosen to bring the United States to
15:38
Speaker 1: the brink of war or something like that in the
15:39
Speaker 1: Middle East. The President knows his political base, he knows
15:43
Speaker 1: what they will abide and what they will not, and
15:45
Speaker 1: he knows that they will not abide a war in
15:46
Speaker 1: the Middle East. What they might or and perhaps will
15:50
Speaker 1: abide is some kind of decisive strike against Iran, perhaps
15:54
Speaker 1: one that disables some of their ballistic missiles or destroys
15:56
Speaker 1: parts of their nuclear program, or forces them to negotiate
15:59
Speaker 1: some sort of deal that constrains their ability to reac
16:00
Speaker 1: havoc in the region and beyond. But that's it, and
16:04
Speaker 1: any suggestion of missing creep is a non starter. Any
16:06
Speaker 1: over long stay is a betrayal of solemn promise of
16:09
Speaker 1: nor more foreign adventures. And then he goes on to
16:12
Speaker 1: say Arando's is too so strategically speaking, all Iran needs
16:18
Speaker 1: to do is everything in its power to rope it oupe.
16:21
Speaker 1: The United States hit us again harder and harder until
16:25
Speaker 1: you've exhausted your available resources and your patience of your
16:28
Speaker 1: political base, and then you'll have to retreat, and we
16:31
Speaker 1: will have defeated the Great Satan Again. This is essentially
16:35
Speaker 1: what John Ellis is putting in the words of the
16:37
Speaker 1: Iranians there, essentially saying, that's the general idea, and I
16:42
Speaker 1: this is the problem. The president has put himself, and
16:45
Speaker 1: he's put himself in this box and around what are
16:47
Speaker 1: you doing? And what does success look like? And if
16:51
Speaker 1: you hit the regime and the regime is still there standing,
16:56
Speaker 1: how long are you going to hit them? How much
16:59
Speaker 1: are you going to destroy? When you break it, you
17:01
Speaker 1: own it? So are we going to rebuild Iran? At
17:05
Speaker 1: some point? If you do successfully do that? How did
17:10
Speaker 1: that go?
17:10
Speaker 2: In?
17:10
Speaker 1: I rock when we did we did all that? So
17:13
Speaker 1: what is it? And then you know, as John points out,
17:18
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that the President's chief military advisor, the
17:21
Speaker 1: Joint Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Raisin Kane, is
17:25
Speaker 1: basically shooting up all sorts of flares like we don't
17:29
Speaker 1: have the next day strategy here, we don't have exactly
17:35
Speaker 1: what the what the goal of this operation is, right,
17:37
Speaker 1: and he went to the Wall Street Journal. It's confirmed
17:40
Speaker 1: in the Times, in the in the in the Post. Look,
17:43
Speaker 1: a lot of people in Washington have figured out to
17:46
Speaker 1: strategically speak to Donald Trump. You sometimes need to use
17:49
Speaker 1: the press. So here's Caine going to the Wall Street Journal,
17:52
Speaker 1: where he knows the President will consume. But the Post
17:54
Speaker 1: in the Times are also two news organizations the President
17:57
Speaker 1: regularly consumes. And this is all also about getting to
18:00
Speaker 1: people whispering in his ear. There's no doubt Lindsey Graham
18:03
Speaker 1: wants him to go yesterday. But this was when when
18:07
Speaker 1: General Kine is making it clear this you know you're
18:13
Speaker 1: not going to air strike your way to regime change.
18:17
Speaker 1: So what's your goal here? And are you really going
18:20
Speaker 1: to negotiate a deal with these guys? Is that going
18:23
Speaker 1: to go? Well? He kind of sort of laid out
18:27
Speaker 1: a pretext for why he would strike Iran. But if
18:30
Speaker 1: you're not going to put boots on the ground, you're
18:32
Speaker 1: likely not going to change that regime and they may
18:35
Speaker 1: simply hunker down. And as as John Ellis points out,
18:42
Speaker 1: if they sort of withstand this, the United States says, Okay,
18:48
Speaker 1: this is as much as we can do and backs off.
18:51
Speaker 1: Have they withstood the onslaught of the Great American Satan? Right?
18:58
Speaker 1: You can see where this is going. Now. What John
19:00
Speaker 1: does is pivots and he said, why he thinks all
19:07
Speaker 1: of this is so off, it's so clear that there
19:09
Speaker 1: is no good there is no Look, there are plenty
19:14
Speaker 1: of good potential outcomes in Iran, but to get to those,
19:18
Speaker 1: you know, to quote Jim Stravidis in the interview he
19:21
Speaker 1: did with me on Newsphere last Sunday, I encourage you
19:23
Speaker 1: to go see that some of you, where I hope are,
19:25
Speaker 1: have subscribed to Newsphere where he said, look, there's probably
19:28
Speaker 1: a one in four chance this does cause regime regime change,
19:32
Speaker 1: and weren't a better place in a year than we
19:34
Speaker 1: are today with Iran? And there's every and there's also
19:38
Speaker 1: a one and four chance, he said, that this could
19:40
Speaker 1: go horribly wrong and it galvanizes the Iranian public behind
19:45
Speaker 1: the regime and they get stronger. And then he said,
19:48
Speaker 1: and there's the middle to scenarios, some sort of muddled
19:52
Speaker 1: scenario that essentially is some combination of a mini quagmire.
19:57
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a policy quagmire, but it's just mess and
20:01
Speaker 1: it's kind of unresolved. Think of it as sort of
20:04
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's attempt to remodel in whatever he's doing with
20:07
Speaker 1: the Kennedy Center. It's kind of half baked. And half asked,
20:10
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what it looks like with Iran.
20:14
Speaker 1: So his argument is, what are you doing. You're being
20:18
Speaker 1: a little impatient, right, You could actually simply back off
20:23
Speaker 1: and let Iran shrink on its own, let them deal
20:29
Speaker 1: with more protesters, don't get in the way. But now
20:33
Speaker 1: that he's put all these melody, now it's sort of
20:34
Speaker 1: it looks like this impatience by Trump to just get
20:38
Speaker 1: some action. Right. This is the story of his presidency.
20:42
Speaker 1: His impatience is among his worst instincts, and his impatience
20:47
Speaker 1: leads him to bad outcomes. His impatience on he really
20:51
Speaker 1: believed in this teriff regime he would have gotten the
20:54
Speaker 1: authority from Congress when he had the political capital to
20:57
Speaker 1: get Congress and to give him this authority back in
20:59
Speaker 1: March and April. But he doesn't think that way. He
21:02
Speaker 1: just wants it now. You know, this is this is
21:05
Speaker 1: this is the immaturity part of the seventy nine year
21:08
Speaker 1: old president of the United States. Right, there's this weird
21:12
Speaker 1: thirteen year old mindset that he has where it's just
21:14
Speaker 1: he wants it now.
21:15
Speaker 2: Now.
21:16
Speaker 1: Now, what John Ellis argues is, as he said, America
21:23
Speaker 1: is now choosing to be impatient with Iran. It doesn't
21:27
Speaker 1: make sense militarily, he argues, I agree with him, and
21:30
Speaker 1: it makes no sense politically at all. That's for sure,
21:32
Speaker 1: right this is this isn't a good military strategy, and
21:35
Speaker 1: it's certainly not a good political strategy. And then he
21:39
Speaker 1: says this He goes especially because ninety minutes east of
21:42
Speaker 1: Key West Florida, lies what he calls the mother of
21:45
Speaker 1: all political opportunities, and that's Cuba. He makes the case
21:51
Speaker 1: that Cuba's on the brink of societal collapse. There's a
21:53
Speaker 1: lot of reporting that indicates this. It does not appear
21:58
Speaker 1: that this regime is going to hang on the rest
22:00
Speaker 1: of this calendar year, and it may collapse without having
22:05
Speaker 1: to put an armada surrounding the island of Cuba to
22:10
Speaker 1: make sure the regime goes away. It's going to collapse
22:13
Speaker 1: on its own, and the United States is going to
22:17
Speaker 1: almost have no choice, and it's certainly going to have
22:19
Speaker 1: the ambition, especially with Marco Rubio Secretary State, and so
22:22
Speaker 1: many Republicans and Cuban exiles in South Florida who have
22:26
Speaker 1: been dreaming of the moment that this is going to happen,
22:32
Speaker 1: and the Cuban American community would flood the island with
22:35
Speaker 1: money and resources. It could the infamous line that Dick
22:44
Speaker 1: Cheney said about Iraq, Oh, well we greeted as liberators.
22:49
Speaker 1: Cuba might actually greet us as liberators. And certainly the
22:57
Speaker 1: reunification of Cuban families, the economic opportunities it is, as
23:07
Speaker 1: he says, he goes it's not going to win him
23:09
Speaker 1: a Nobel Peace Prize, but it actually offers him an opportunity,
23:14
Speaker 1: as he said, to create a fifty first state. We'll see.
23:18
Speaker 1: Maybe this is how Puerto Rico or DC happens. Maybe
23:20
Speaker 1: Cuba and DC coming together. By the way, it's not
23:25
Speaker 1: the craziest idea. There was some talk of making Cuba
23:28
Speaker 1: a state back in the early twentieth century. Maybe it
23:34
Speaker 1: stays as a standalone country. Maybe it becomes sort of
23:37
Speaker 1: what Puerto Rico is, a commonwealth with an association with
23:40
Speaker 1: the United States. Maybe it stays an independent country with
23:47
Speaker 1: free and fair elections and things like that. But I
23:50
Speaker 1: think what the point Ellis is making is there's a
23:53
Speaker 1: fairly easy foreign policy victory that might be available to
23:56
Speaker 1: you in this hemisphere without too much blood and treasure.
24:02
Speaker 1: There is a foreign policy outcome that Trump is trying
24:05
Speaker 1: to will in the Middle East that has more opportunities
24:12
Speaker 1: for it to go haywire, and yet the president's in
24:16
Speaker 1: patience has put him where he is now. Now if
24:21
Speaker 1: he doesn't do anything in Iran, it's Taco Trump. So anyway,
24:27
Speaker 1: I just thought I wanted to highlight the piece because
24:29
Speaker 1: I thought Ellis nailed it. It was sort of like,
24:32
Speaker 1: this is a head scratcher politically, strategically, militarily, and they're
24:40
Speaker 1: only I think, you know, there's only a I'm going
24:45
Speaker 1: to use the Stavridi's measurement about a one and four
24:48
Speaker 1: chance that GESS goes as well as it could be.
24:52
Speaker 1: And even if it does, it could it could drain
24:57
Speaker 1: us of resources that the public may not like. And
25:01
Speaker 1: it's certainly going to be the type of distraction that
25:04
Speaker 1: makes it look like the president is more focused on
25:06
Speaker 1: his legacy, building his own you know, stuff overseas rather
25:12
Speaker 1: than the cost of living here at home, where Cuba
25:18
Speaker 1: is a quasi it's like one of the few foreign
25:20
Speaker 1: policy issues that's quasi domestic. This episode of The Chuck
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28:42
Speaker 1: All right, so this weekend is the final weekend before
28:46
Speaker 1: the primary season kicks off. All things Texas. It's not
28:50
Speaker 1: just Texas on the battle on Tuesday, North Carolina as well,
28:52
Speaker 1: But we don't have a big, huge There's a few
28:55
Speaker 1: congressional primaries that we're going to be keeping an eye
28:57
Speaker 1: on in North Carolina. But look, the big stories are
29:01
Speaker 1: the two primaries, the Republican primary between John corn Can
29:07
Speaker 1: Paxton Wesley Hunt, and it's pretty clear that's going to
29:09
Speaker 1: be a runoff, and it's looking clear all the time
29:12
Speaker 1: that it's going to be Paxton and Cornyan in the runoff.
29:17
Speaker 1: So I actually want to focus the remainder of my
29:19
Speaker 1: time before we get to the interview on what's happening
29:21
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side, because what happens in the Democratic
29:25
Speaker 1: primary could very well influence what happens in the Republican runoff.
29:31
Speaker 1: So again, you see, it was what I sort of
29:35
Speaker 1: predicted a couple of weeks ago that eventually you'd see
29:37
Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt fade. You're starting to see Wesley Hunt fade.
29:40
Speaker 1: Both Cornyan and Paxton have much better to get out
29:42
Speaker 1: the vote organizations on the early vote, and you're starting
29:45
Speaker 1: to see that. So I think what will matter a
29:50
Speaker 1: bit is. I think it's a fairly I wouldn't call
29:57
Speaker 1: it a big deal, but it's not a small deal. Right,
29:59
Speaker 1: We'll call it a deal if Cornan is the leading
30:02
Speaker 1: vote getter on the Republican side. If Cornyn is able
30:04
Speaker 1: to be the leading vote getter, that is because he's
30:07
Speaker 1: never been ahead in any poll that wasn't released by
30:11
Speaker 1: his own campaign. He is pretty much trailed out in
30:14
Speaker 1: every public poll and every other private poll. Not by
30:17
Speaker 1: a lot, I mean, you see, and it gets really
30:19
Speaker 1: tied at some points, been one or two points. But
30:21
Speaker 1: Paxton has had a consistent lead. And there's certainly plenty
30:26
Speaker 1: of reasons to believe you'd rather be Paxton in the
30:28
Speaker 1: runoff than Cornan in the runoff. Paxson's going to have
30:30
Speaker 1: the more devoted voters, and runoffs tend to favor the
30:36
Speaker 1: candidate closer to the political base of that party rather
30:39
Speaker 1: than you don't get as many sort of casual voters
30:43
Speaker 1: showing up for that second round. Sometimes it happens, every
30:47
Speaker 1: once in a while, the runoff will get a higher
30:48
Speaker 1: turnout than the primary itself. We saw that happen in
30:51
Speaker 1: a Mississippi Senate race back in twenty fourteen. That featured
30:57
Speaker 1: one of these these primary challenges to a sitting senator.
31:04
Speaker 1: But what could what so? I think, look the order
31:10
Speaker 1: of finish matters, you know, corn and getting the top spot,
31:14
Speaker 1: maybe that encourages Trump to get on board. Corn can't
31:18
Speaker 1: win this without Trump unilaterally endorsing him and essentially unindorsing Paxton.
31:23
Speaker 1: And there seems to be really only a couple of
31:25
Speaker 1: ways this can happen. One is Cornn needs to be
31:28
Speaker 1: the leading vote getter. I will be surprised if he is.
31:33
Speaker 1: But you know, when you drop the amount of money
31:35
Speaker 1: he's dropped, you assume he's got a very good on
31:39
Speaker 1: the ground organization, and the Cornn voter is going to
31:42
Speaker 1: show up. Right, the corn And voters in the in
31:46
Speaker 1: the the nice neighborhoods where George W. Bush lives in
31:50
Speaker 1: and around where my son goes to school at SMU. Right,
31:52
Speaker 1: that's Cornn Country. Now you go further into North Texas
31:56
Speaker 1: and you get to Paxton Country. The further the closer
31:59
Speaker 1: you get to Fort Worth. But you know, in the
32:03
Speaker 1: in the the wealthier suburbs of Houston and Dallas, assuming
32:07
Speaker 1: they've stayed voting in Republican primaries, it's a big if
32:11
Speaker 1: there are quite a few sort of former Bush Republicans
32:14
Speaker 1: that now vote in Democratic primaries because of Donald Trump,
32:18
Speaker 1: that's going to be key. I think that is a
32:21
Speaker 1: it is a like I said, it doesn't mean that
32:23
Speaker 1: Cornyn is guaranteed to survive the runoff if he's a
32:26
Speaker 1: leading vote getter, but that is something to watch for
32:29
Speaker 1: and it will matter. But we're still you know, it's
32:33
Speaker 1: it's a there's going to be a runoff, and and
32:35
Speaker 1: you know we've got it's a long runoff. It goes
32:38
Speaker 1: all the way basically to Memorial there, which brings us
32:41
Speaker 1: to this democratic back and forth between James Tollerco who
32:46
Speaker 1: is a darling of this sort of establishment and donor crowd,
32:50
Speaker 1: and Jasmine Crockett, who has very you know, run her
32:54
Speaker 1: own race kind of a anti establishment, and yet she
32:58
Speaker 1: is getting the support of the more mainstream Democratic primary voters.
33:04
Speaker 1: This has been a fascinating divide to watch. I think
33:09
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who haven't paid attention
33:11
Speaker 1: much to Crockett in Tallo Rico and assume that Crockett
33:14
Speaker 1: is the more base based Democrat and that Tallo Rico
33:20
Speaker 1: is the more moderate electable Democrat. And yet many of
33:24
Speaker 1: the progressive groups that have endorsed, and two of the
33:28
Speaker 1: biggest progressives have actually not endorsed in this race, AOC
33:31
Speaker 1: and Bernie Sanders, who have gotten involved in a lot
33:33
Speaker 1: of primaries not involved in this one. They have stayed out.
33:37
Speaker 1: But you have p triple c. Adam Green is a
33:41
Speaker 1: big part of this. For those of you that are
33:44
Speaker 1: in progressive politics. Progressive you know, they definitely usually endorse
33:48
Speaker 1: on the progressive side. They endorse tall Rico. And when
33:52
Speaker 1: you actually look at the vote, at the raw splits
33:55
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic primary, there was a University of Texas
33:57
Speaker 1: pull out there and there's a more recent one. Tallarrico
34:00
Speaker 1: campaign put out a pole claiming they were now up
34:03
Speaker 1: four points. There's another pole that's been circulating earlier on
34:06
Speaker 1: Wednesday that showed Jasmine Crockett up double digits. Now that
34:11
Speaker 1: pole had been conducted, a big chunk of it conducted
34:15
Speaker 1: before the Colbert FCC incident, I guess we'll call it.
34:22
Speaker 1: I think she had nothing to do the FC the
34:24
Speaker 1: accusation of all of that, which of course gave tallerco
34:27
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of attention. So there's you know,
34:33
Speaker 1: so is his crocket up double digits or is tallerco
34:36
Speaker 1: up two or three? You know, tall Rico released his
34:39
Speaker 1: own pole because I think they didn't like this narrative
34:42
Speaker 1: that was developing that oh wow, Crockett's about to could
34:45
Speaker 1: she win this without a runoff? There is a third
34:47
Speaker 1: cannon on the ballot, very underfunded. But you know, this
34:51
Speaker 1: race is forty nine forty eight. You know, the third
34:54
Speaker 1: candidate only needs to get you know what, the third
34:57
Speaker 1: candidate gets anything over three three or fo four points, well,
35:03
Speaker 1: I think the likely of a DEM run off suddenly
35:07
Speaker 1: inches up. There was a ut Austin Yugov poll that
35:12
Speaker 1: was circulating and it was conducted the second through the sixteenth,
35:14
Speaker 1: so it started before the Colbert incident. And as I
35:18
Speaker 1: was saying, and what was interesting about what we saw
35:22
Speaker 1: in the Democratic prime was a very small sample, so
35:24
Speaker 1: I'm mindful of that, just three hundred and seventy Democratic
35:27
Speaker 1: likely voters, and they had crocked ahead by double digits.
35:30
Speaker 1: What was interesting is when you went inside the numbers,
35:34
Speaker 1: it looked to me like an old Sanders Clinton divide
35:39
Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary battles in twenty sixteen. And what
35:42
Speaker 1: do I mean by that? So in a lot of these,
35:44
Speaker 1: particularly the Southern primaries, the splits would be very, very
35:49
Speaker 1: consistent across the board. Hillary Clinton would do better among
35:53
Speaker 1: actual registered Democrats, better among African American voters, and in
35:58
Speaker 1: some ways better among Latino voters, while Bernie did better
36:02
Speaker 1: among it was competitive among Latino voters, did better among
36:06
Speaker 1: white voters, which white Democratic voters are usually more progressive,
36:10
Speaker 1: and Democratic Party did not do well among African American voters.
36:14
Speaker 1: He did well among younger voters, and Hillary Clinton did
36:18
Speaker 1: well among older voters. Well, Crockett had a big edge
36:21
Speaker 1: among older vote Basically, she was winning all voters fifty plus.
36:25
Speaker 1: Tall Rica was only winning voters eighteen to thirty five. Now,
36:28
Speaker 1: why does that matter a primary? Well, the more reliable
36:33
Speaker 1: primary voters are older, an African American, and female. Well,
36:40
Speaker 1: Crockett was ahead in all of those demographic groups. There.
36:43
Speaker 1: Now look tall Rico's poll that he put out later
36:46
Speaker 1: in the day after this double digit lead of Crockett's
36:49
Speaker 1: sorted and it wasn't the only poll that has shown
36:51
Speaker 1: Crockett ahead. She's been ahead pretty much the entire primary campaign.
36:57
Speaker 1: Would you look at the makeup of her support orders
37:00
Speaker 1: in these polls, her coalition looks more durable for showing
37:04
Speaker 1: up to the polls. Now. Look, I think we're going
37:06
Speaker 1: to have a huge turnout among Democrats. We've seen it
37:08
Speaker 1: in special elections. So the bigger the turnout, the better
37:13
Speaker 1: perhaps for tall Rico. And in fact, if you look
37:15
Speaker 1: at the tallar Rico poll that was put out, one
37:19
Speaker 1: thing that they wanted to emphasize that the UT poll
37:24
Speaker 1: didn't do was this idea of the electability question, who
37:32
Speaker 1: can win and primary Democratic primary voters, According to tall
37:37
Speaker 1: Rico's pollster said tall Rico's more likely to beat the
37:39
Speaker 1: GP nominee. Forty seven percent picked tall Rico, only twenty
37:43
Speaker 1: two percent picked Crockett. Back in December, when they tested
37:46
Speaker 1: the electability question, Tallerco's edge was only four points. Look,
37:54
Speaker 1: I think electability is a very hard thing to poll
37:58
Speaker 1: because it's a very subjective thing. Right, what I think
38:02
Speaker 1: is electable? Sure, you could say, Hey, I've been doing
38:04
Speaker 1: this thirty years. I think I have an idea of
38:07
Speaker 1: which kind of candidates have the highest ceiling, and I
38:11
Speaker 1: think that's the better way to do it. Look, considering
38:15
Speaker 1: the history of Texas, the history of eddy state, we've
38:18
Speaker 1: only had a handful that of elected African American women
38:23
Speaker 1: statewide to the United States Senate. So it is hard
38:26
Speaker 1: not to sit there and say the white male pastor
38:29
Speaker 1: probably has a higher potential ceiling in a general election
38:33
Speaker 1: than an African American congresswoman from Dallas, except I would
38:39
Speaker 1: say being from Dallas is actually might be a good
38:44
Speaker 1: advantage versus Tallarico's base of Austin, which is a bit
38:47
Speaker 1: more progressive. So but I understand this idea of who's
38:52
Speaker 1: got a higher ceiling. The fact is Poles have shown
38:55
Speaker 1: they both are ahead of Paxton right now, and part
38:58
Speaker 1: of that is thanks to John Cornyn and the Senate
39:00
Speaker 1: Republican packs that have been very supportive of Corny. They
39:03
Speaker 1: have dropped a mother load of negative ads on Packston.
39:08
Speaker 1: It has barely budget his primary numbers, but it has
39:12
Speaker 1: hurt him with general election voters, which is why what
39:17
Speaker 1: happens in this Democratic primary may dictate what could happen
39:22
Speaker 1: in the Republican runoff. But the big thing I wanted
39:27
Speaker 1: to make clear as you're watching these Texas primaries unfold
39:30
Speaker 1: on Tuesday night, and by the way, I'm going to
39:31
Speaker 1: have a live stream all of you. We'll put it
39:35
Speaker 1: on X We're going to put on YouTube. I'll be
39:36
Speaker 1: in partnership with my friends at Decision Desk, and of
39:38
Speaker 1: course christ Eliza Jeffrey Scaling, He's going to be on
39:41
Speaker 1: there again. We're going to have our parade of data
39:44
Speaker 1: stars helping us break down. Not just the Senate primaries,
39:47
Speaker 1: which of course we'll all be on pins and needles for,
39:49
Speaker 1: but there's a slew of fascinating House primaries, including whether
39:53
Speaker 1: Tony Gonzalez, who is having to deal with the Republican
39:57
Speaker 1: congressman from South Texas, having a deal with a whole
39:59
Speaker 1: bunch of President Nation calls due to the affair with
40:02
Speaker 1: the woman who killed herself by lighting herself on fire.
40:07
Speaker 1: You've had bipartisan calls for his resignation. I have a
40:10
Speaker 1: feeling the voters are going to take care of his
40:11
Speaker 1: political career. But whether or not, you know, he has
40:15
Speaker 1: to resign or not, I think the voters are going
40:16
Speaker 1: to make that decision for him. Dan Crenshaw the only
40:23
Speaker 1: Republican incumbent congressman in Texas running for reelection who did
40:27
Speaker 1: not get endorsed by Donald Trump. In fact, his opponent
40:30
Speaker 1: was just recently endorsed by Ted Cruz. That will be
40:32
Speaker 1: an interesting primary Obviously, we've got all the redistricting stuff
40:35
Speaker 1: that happened when Texas started the remap, So there's a
40:38
Speaker 1: lot going on, and we're going to have it all covered.
40:42
Speaker 1: The Election nine live stream we will be there, and
40:45
Speaker 1: we're also going to cover North Carolina and yes, Arkansas.
40:50
Speaker 1: Probably the only November competitive election in Arkansas, if there
40:53
Speaker 1: is going to be anything competitive at all, would be
40:55
Speaker 1: the Little Rock congressional seat that's french Hill these days.
41:00
Speaker 1: He's a pretty well liked figure, so I'm highly suspect.
41:03
Speaker 1: But in a waveyear, if any member of Congress in
41:08
Speaker 1: Arkansas is going to get held under sixty or even
41:10
Speaker 1: close to the fifty five percent mark, you would id
41:15
Speaker 1: the congressman from Little Rock, which is french Hill these days.
41:17
Speaker 1: So but to go back, you know this Tall Rico
41:22
Speaker 1: Crockett race I think is clearly going to be pretty
41:26
Speaker 1: close if it ends in a runoff. Trump may not
41:30
Speaker 1: get it involved. If Tall Rico wins without a runoff,
41:34
Speaker 1: I've talked to some Republican sources who indicate that that
41:38
Speaker 1: might get Trump off the fence on Paxton and endorse
41:43
Speaker 1: cornn especially if Cornin's a leading vote getter. And I
41:48
Speaker 1: go back to that. Cornan has to be the leading
41:50
Speaker 1: vote getter, I think, to even have a chance because
41:52
Speaker 1: he can play the quote unquote winner card. Right. Trump
41:55
Speaker 1: doesn't like the back losers, so in that sense, he
41:59
Speaker 1: might be able to claim he backs a winner. If
42:01
Speaker 1: Crockett wins without a primary, I think a lot of
42:05
Speaker 1: Texas Republicans, and perhaps even some Senate Republican strategists, are
42:10
Speaker 1: going to convince themselves it won't matter who they nominate.
42:15
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I agree with that, but I understand
42:18
Speaker 1: when you look at the history of this country with
42:21
Speaker 1: African American women senate nominees, it's Texas. You can go
42:25
Speaker 1: through all the reasons why he seems uniquely unelectable. Ken
42:32
Speaker 1: Paxton US and I think what people miss about Jasmine
42:37
Speaker 1: Crockett is she's not the progressive. She is much more
42:42
Speaker 1: of a working class Democrat, much more of a Jim
42:46
Speaker 1: Cleiburn Democrat. If you're going to go in sort of
42:50
Speaker 1: congressional black caucus politics, there very much in not necessarily
42:57
Speaker 1: on the far left of the spectrum here, So you
43:02
Speaker 1: know it's it's certainly she's going to get painted as
43:05
Speaker 1: an extremist. She's certainly been very loud on social media,
43:09
Speaker 1: you might say, and there's no doubt how the Republicans going,
43:13
Speaker 1: But I let's just say, I wouldn't be writing. I
43:17
Speaker 1: wouldn't write this race off. I still think it doesn't
43:19
Speaker 1: matter who the Democratic nominee is. It's going to be
43:23
Speaker 1: hard to win in Texas, but it's going to be
43:26
Speaker 1: quite competitive no matter which one of these two candids.
43:28
Speaker 1: I think we've seen the better campaigner is Jasmine Crockett.
43:34
Speaker 1: Talla Rico may have the better resume as far as
43:37
Speaker 1: donors are concerned, but I don't think he's Pete Buddhages yet.
43:41
Speaker 1: And I think there's been a lot of people betting
43:44
Speaker 1: that maybe he's the next Peat. I think when you
43:49
Speaker 1: see that, you know, I think he really if he
43:52
Speaker 1: loses this race and doesn't make it into a runoff,
43:55
Speaker 1: even we will say the way the fact that he
43:58
Speaker 1: was that he that comment about Colin alright, wasn't mediocre candidate,
44:05
Speaker 1: it was mediocre black candidate. I think that it had
44:10
Speaker 1: a It's very possible this impacts voters much more deeply
44:14
Speaker 1: than you think, like going, huh the pastor thinks in
44:19
Speaker 1: identity politics too, And I just think that that, you know,
44:26
Speaker 1: if he loses, that will be the moment that is
44:29
Speaker 1: pointed to is sort of you know, this is why
44:33
Speaker 1: you don't pick nominees based on resumes. You actually wait
44:36
Speaker 1: and see how they perform as candidates. And speaking of that,
44:41
Speaker 1: have you seen what's going on in main lately? There's
44:44
Speaker 1: another poll out again you univer see of New Hampshire
44:48
Speaker 1: that has Graham Platner, the oyster farmer, up nearly forty
44:53
Speaker 1: points over Janet Mills, the sitting incumbent governor. It's interesting,
45:05
Speaker 1: So Chuck Schumer was asked about this, about this pole
45:08
Speaker 1: that should platter continue to be ahead double digits over
45:12
Speaker 1: Janet Mills even after the so called Nazi tattoo and
45:16
Speaker 1: all of that controversy, none of it seemed to hurt him,
45:21
Speaker 1: and none of it seemed to accrue to the benefit
45:23
Speaker 1: of Mills. And if anything, the fact that she just
45:26
Speaker 1: is not getting traction yet has to make you wonder
45:30
Speaker 1: if this is if this is something the is this
45:33
Speaker 1: the age issue? Right? They were thinking, Look, the best
45:36
Speaker 1: way to knock off an incumbent that's been there forever
45:39
Speaker 1: is not somebody who looks like she's older than Susan Collins.
45:45
Speaker 1: But what's interesting is is Schumer was asked about this
45:48
Speaker 1: race and whether he wants to admit if he backed
45:52
Speaker 1: the wrong candidate. And by the way, you know, Schumer's
45:55
Speaker 1: track record here is terrible so far the cycle. I'm
45:57
Speaker 1: going to get to it in a minute. And he says,
45:58
Speaker 1: Poles come and go. We're going to Maine, and Frankly,
46:00
Speaker 1: Mills is the only Democrat who won statewide in twenty years. Well,
46:05
Speaker 1: an extraordinarily defensive statement. It is technically true, but full
46:08
Speaker 1: of shit what Schumer just said there. He said Mills
46:11
Speaker 1: is the only Democrat who's won statewide in twenty years. Okay,
46:14
Speaker 1: Angus King has won a bunch, but Angus King has
46:18
Speaker 1: been an independent coxing with the Democrats. So it's interesting
46:21
Speaker 1: whin Schumer claims Angus King and when he doesn't claim
46:24
Speaker 1: Angus King. And by the way, when Angus King ring
46:26
Speaker 1: for the Senate, you know who endorsed his candidacy and
46:29
Speaker 1: funded his candidacy, the d SC. So it's kind of
46:32
Speaker 1: a misleading statement there, but it was a you could
46:35
Speaker 1: tell it's a bit stubborn. But what's interesting, right Tall
46:37
Speaker 1: Rico was a Schumer recruit. Looks like right now polls
46:41
Speaker 1: show them losing to Crockett. In Iowa, Josh Turek was
46:45
Speaker 1: the Schumer recruit. Zach Walls put out his own poll.
46:49
Speaker 1: Republicans have put out a poll. Multiple poles have shown
46:51
Speaker 1: him up double digits. Janet Mills was his recruit. Graham
46:54
Speaker 1: Platner's winning in the primary. Look, I know it sounds
46:58
Speaker 1: like I'm picking on Chuck Schumer because he is in
47:00
Speaker 1: charge of this. Roy Cooper is a great get and
47:03
Speaker 1: there's no primary. He's got to worry about North Carolina.
47:05
Speaker 1: And Mary Pitzello is a great get in Alaska. So
47:08
Speaker 1: you know, if I'm if you're if we're going to
47:10
Speaker 1: ding Schumer here for making for getting too involved in
47:14
Speaker 1: these primaries in Texas, Maine, and Iowa. I think it's
47:17
Speaker 1: one of those cases he had to let the candidates
47:19
Speaker 1: perform and then decide who's the best candidate, you know,
47:22
Speaker 1: instead of just looking at resumes. Once you'll let this
47:25
Speaker 1: play out, then decide right let the candidates and the
47:28
Speaker 1: voters play the game, if you will, before you come
47:31
Speaker 1: in and decide who should what the results should be.
47:36
Speaker 1: You know, this is with you know, with Iowa, this
47:38
Speaker 1: is not the first time he is backed the wrong
47:40
Speaker 1: candidate in Iowa multiple times now, which is why Democrats
47:43
Speaker 1: have fallen further behind in that state. It is it
47:49
Speaker 1: is look, part of this is in defense of Schumer.
47:53
Speaker 1: Here they're the establishment and we're in a campaign here
47:57
Speaker 1: where the establishment is not popular hard stop. So there
48:01
Speaker 1: is an argument to be made if there are certain
48:03
Speaker 1: candidates he wants to see when the best thing he
48:06
Speaker 1: can do is not endorse them, right, I mean, his
48:11
Speaker 1: candidate in Michigan might be the weakest of the three
48:13
Speaker 1: primary candidates at the moment, Haley Stevens. So the good
48:18
Speaker 1: news for Schumer and the Democrats is they seem to
48:21
Speaker 1: have some pretty good campaigners that may knock off his
48:25
Speaker 1: recruits Platner in Maine, Walls in Iowa, Crockett in Texas.
48:33
Speaker 1: And it's also possibly true that the more public the
48:38
Speaker 1: party is on who its preferences are, that it sends
48:40
Speaker 1: the exact opposite message to where Democratic primary voters are
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Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.
51:53
Speaker 1: First question comes from Kelly X from Aubrey, Texas, Hey, Texas.
51:57
Speaker 1: Big theme this this episode, Kelly Wrights, I was surprised
52:01
Speaker 1: that Trump only briefly mentioned transgender issues in the State
52:03
Speaker 1: of the Union. I expected more culture war focus. Does
52:06
Speaker 1: this signal a shift for Republicans in twenty twenty six
52:08
Speaker 1: towards emphasizing the economy instead or wore they still lean
52:11
Speaker 1: on issues like transgender rights, and religion. If race is
52:13
Speaker 1: titan with groups like American Principles Project pledging millions and
52:17
Speaker 1: influencers building their brands around anti trans rhetoric, and where
52:20
Speaker 1: these topics aren't going away. Thanks for all you do, Look,
52:23
Speaker 1: I think I think the trans issue is going to
52:28
Speaker 1: continue to be on the upper end of issues that
52:32
Speaker 1: Republicans use in these campaigns. Particularly I brought up main
52:36
Speaker 1: earlier in the In this episode, I think the I
52:41
Speaker 1: think that if it is Janet Mills and Susan Collins,
52:43
Speaker 1: and it may very well not be Janet Mills and
52:46
Speaker 1: Susan Collins, that you will see Republicans try to make
52:51
Speaker 1: Mills's back and forth with the president over trans issues
52:56
Speaker 1: a bigger issue. I do think you're right that it
53:00
Speaker 1: can be distracting from economic issues. These culture issues all
53:03
Speaker 1: depending on what it is. But you know this is
53:06
Speaker 1: what when you're behind, you know when when the when
53:09
Speaker 1: the economic story is not a good one for your party,
53:12
Speaker 1: you look for a cultural issue to try to to
53:15
Speaker 1: try to sort of get in the way. So that's
53:18
Speaker 1: where I suspect this gets used. And really more on
53:22
Speaker 1: the on the children, on the on the on the
53:26
Speaker 1: under eighteen side of this issue, Like, I don't think
53:29
Speaker 1: I think it'll be less on the women's sports angle
53:32
Speaker 1: that we saw a lot of in twenty twenty four.
53:34
Speaker 1: I think it's more now that you've seen many of
53:37
Speaker 1: these medical groups start to back off and recommending any
53:40
Speaker 1: of these surgeries before before before folks turn eighteen. That's
53:47
Speaker 1: because when you pull that that that gets closer to
53:50
Speaker 1: being a sixty five thirty five issue where there's there's
53:53
Speaker 1: there's a lot of folks who I think would be
53:56
Speaker 1: pro protection of trans rights for adults who are not
54:02
Speaker 1: ready to support using taxpayer dollars and for the idea
54:09
Speaker 1: of having these surgeries for minors. So I think that's
54:13
Speaker 1: that's the line politically that I think Republicans believe that
54:18
Speaker 1: they can sort of win, get it to seventy thirty
54:21
Speaker 1: sixty five thirty five split on these issues when you
54:24
Speaker 1: make it about that, when you make it about individual
54:28
Speaker 1: rights and liberty, that's where I think it's less where
54:32
Speaker 1: sort of the libertarian in the libertarian in both the
54:36
Speaker 1: right and the left feels like, hey live and let
54:39
Speaker 1: live when it comes to adults, right, So I suspect
54:42
Speaker 1: when it gets used, it's going to be on the
54:44
Speaker 1: issue of minors. Next question comes from anonymous, So I'm
54:50
Speaker 1: just going to presume it's a senior staffer at the
54:54
Speaker 1: White House. I have kid only half right. We never
54:58
Speaker 1: know anontos rights. I viewed the speech in three sections.
55:03
Speaker 1: One the me, me me part. I saved our country,
55:05
Speaker 1: I saved the world, et cetera, with a little Biden
55:07
Speaker 1: bashing to the Oprah section you get a medal, and
55:09
Speaker 1: you get a medal, and you get an uncle. And
55:12
Speaker 1: three and the baiten demean the dem section. He stayed
55:14
Speaker 1: on a well rehearsed script, kept a good kept a
55:16
Speaker 1: good news, slash, lies, exaggeration, distortions, didn't address Epstein, Ukraine,
55:20
Speaker 1: or Ice, and he used the Dems like a prop.
55:22
Speaker 1: I worry about him being under control until the midterms.
55:25
Speaker 1: Bring back crazy Trump. Thanks. That's an interesting well, look,
55:29
Speaker 1: I think that that I you know, I think in
55:33
Speaker 1: this case, you know, he he is competitive and he
55:37
Speaker 1: doesn't want to lose. And I think, if you know,
55:41
Speaker 1: Susie Wilds has a way of getting him into certain places.
55:45
Speaker 1: Jade Vances also plays this role of trying to get
55:48
Speaker 1: the president in the right mindset, because again, we know
55:51
Speaker 1: we're dealing with arrested development here where his you know
55:55
Speaker 1: he can crazy Trump can show up at any time.
55:58
Speaker 1: Bestivus Trump can so up at any time. But if
56:02
Speaker 1: you frame it as competitive Trump, all right, this is
56:05
Speaker 1: what they're not going to expect to be miss sir,
56:07
Speaker 1: mister president, et cetera. You know, he can get quasi
56:12
Speaker 1: on message, like but look, Epstein's not going away. And
56:18
Speaker 1: the fact that you have very we now have details
56:21
Speaker 1: where the Justice Department had put out a statement. Yeah
56:24
Speaker 1: it's possible. There's some files that were still don't have
56:27
Speaker 1: will find them. And now it's sort of like when
56:30
Speaker 1: you know, when when you have a survivor saying, I
56:33
Speaker 1: know there is a missing FBI file about an allegation
56:37
Speaker 1: that I made against the president, then the minute it's found,
56:42
Speaker 1: it's going to get outside even more outsized attention. So
56:49
Speaker 1: I'm usually a skeptic on government conspiracies in general, because
56:52
Speaker 1: the bureaucracy works in such a way that it's really
56:54
Speaker 1: hard to keep make a conspiracy stick. But I will
56:59
Speaker 1: say if somebody thought, hey, they're better off see if
57:02
Speaker 1: they could avoid releasing some of the worst stuff that
57:04
Speaker 1: mentioned Trump. And remember these are FBI three oh twos
57:08
Speaker 1: that are just allegations. They're not necessarily proven allegations, which
57:13
Speaker 1: is what makes the entire release of these files so
57:15
Speaker 1: unpresident and frankly so uncomfortable for so many members of
57:19
Speaker 1: the Department of Justice. This is this is you know,
57:22
Speaker 1: many of you may think, hey, these all these men
57:24
Speaker 1: and women are involved in EPSTEIN, deserve to be shamed.
57:27
Speaker 1: I hear you. But there is sort of there, there
57:31
Speaker 1: is a discomfort. I think with some of these projects.
57:33
Speaker 1: You're like, wait a minute, these are people that we
57:36
Speaker 1: don't have enough evidence to charge them with a crime,
57:39
Speaker 1: but we're gonna We're gonna go ahead and essentially flood
57:47
Speaker 1: the court of public opinion with evidence that people can
57:51
Speaker 1: cherry pick and choose. All that said, the fact that
57:55
Speaker 1: they if you thought you were doing Trump a favor
58:00
Speaker 1: by pulling it out only to get caught, now it's
58:02
Speaker 1: going to get extra attention. It's very likely it would
58:05
Speaker 1: have just been part of the three and a half
58:06
Speaker 1: million files, much harder for it to surface up. Of course,
58:09
Speaker 1: people are going to pay attention. It's Trump. So I
58:14
Speaker 1: wouldn't assume that any of the stuff that put it
58:17
Speaker 1: this way. This state of the Union is almost already
58:23
Speaker 1: it's already sort of played itself out. I think we
58:25
Speaker 1: sort of know that it's already it is what it is.
58:29
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Marcus from Europe, and he says
58:32
Speaker 1: longtime listener from Switzerland and Germany. He says, I've always
58:36
Speaker 1: appreciated how you go beyond the surface to explain the
58:38
Speaker 1: inner workings of US politics. One thing I still struggle
58:40
Speaker 1: to understand is when you reference America as well. From
58:43
Speaker 1: my perspective, places like Louisiana don't seem richer than most
58:46
Speaker 1: European countries, and even Californians with high incomes often seem
58:49
Speaker 1: to struggle more than Europe's middle class. Does America's hire
58:52
Speaker 1: GDP really translate to a better standard or living or
58:54
Speaker 1: are the systems too different to compare meaningfully? Greetings from Europe.
58:59
Speaker 1: I think cultures and somebody, you know, as aligned as
59:02
Speaker 1: we are, there are some things that were very different
59:05
Speaker 1: on right, Americans like their stuff, right, you know it.
59:12
Speaker 1: Europeans the cities are smaller, people are more comfortable living
59:17
Speaker 1: with less things, right, So you know, I've always thought
59:22
Speaker 1: that that's that's actually a difference that we don't you know,
59:26
Speaker 1: We're we want more land because we have the room, Right,
59:30
Speaker 1: we want more stuff because we have the room. In
59:34
Speaker 1: Europe and these tighter cities and these you know, people
59:37
Speaker 1: don't have the room. So it's sort of you might
59:40
Speaker 1: make less money, but you may spend less because you
59:43
Speaker 1: don't you just don't have the space to acquire more things.
59:48
Speaker 1: I know that seems like a but I think that's
59:51
Speaker 1: why sometimes there's a disconnect on wealth of the you know,
59:56
Speaker 1: sort of middle class European living in in Frankfort and
1:00:01
Speaker 1: the middle class American living in Sacramento or something like that. Right,
1:00:05
Speaker 1: So you know, I think that might have something to
1:00:08
Speaker 1: do with it. So a little bit is cultural. You know,
1:00:12
Speaker 1: we're just a culture of bigger houses. Now that may change, right,
1:00:15
Speaker 1: you may seem you know, it does feel like this
1:00:18
Speaker 1: gets you know, the boomers saved everything. My wife will say,
1:00:23
Speaker 1: I'm got hoarding tendencies when you look at all the
1:00:26
Speaker 1: sports cards that I have acquired, But I i'm you know,
1:00:28
Speaker 1: we've had dumpsters at the house, and we like to
1:00:30
Speaker 1: get rid of stuff. But gen z And definitely doesn't
1:00:35
Speaker 1: want to save all this stuff the way our parents
1:00:39
Speaker 1: and grandparents love to save stuff. So there may be
1:00:44
Speaker 1: something akin to that as well. So that, you know,
1:00:49
Speaker 1: I think we need an American to do what to
1:00:51
Speaker 1: Tolkville did for explaining America to Europeans. Maybe maybe you
1:00:57
Speaker 1: know myself or somebody else needs to go and we
1:00:59
Speaker 1: need to explain how Europeans live to Americans today a
1:01:06
Speaker 1: little bit. But appreciate the question. Marcus, thank you, And
1:01:12
Speaker 1: if you don't like my answer, right back and tell
1:01:15
Speaker 1: me if I've whiffed on this and you think I
1:01:17
Speaker 1: got it wrong. Next question comes from Jason anyway, Hey,
1:01:21
Speaker 1: thanks for reading my comments last month about the barn.
1:01:23
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. As I mentioned my prior email, I
1:01:26
Speaker 1: now live in the Commonwealth, but live for a long
1:01:27
Speaker 1: time in Florida. Welcome to the Welcome to the club
1:01:31
Speaker 1: of the Florida to Virginia pipeline. I continue to keep
1:01:34
Speaker 1: up with the goings on there. And can you explain
1:01:36
Speaker 1: how local governments are supposed to function that they get
1:01:38
Speaker 1: rid of the property tax? Yes, Jason, I'm glad you
1:01:40
Speaker 1: brought this up. So there's this idea and Ronda Santis
1:01:44
Speaker 1: wants to do it, trying to essentially, and this gets
1:01:48
Speaker 1: it to you know, Donald Trump briefly mentioned in the
1:01:51
Speaker 1: State of the Union that he wants to go back
1:01:52
Speaker 1: to a system that where all of our taxation is
1:01:55
Speaker 1: tariffs and we stop taxing income now. I am happy
1:01:59
Speaker 1: to do a Toddcast time machine explaining why we ended
1:02:02
Speaker 1: up with the income tax because tariffs did nothing but
1:02:05
Speaker 1: put the tax essentially put the tax burden of funding
1:02:08
Speaker 1: the government on the working class more than it put
1:02:11
Speaker 1: it on the upper class. Well, Rondo Santis is kind
1:02:14
Speaker 1: of has the same vision. He says, Hey, property, you know,
1:02:17
Speaker 1: you shouldn't have to pay taxes on it all the time.
1:02:20
Speaker 1: You should only have to pay taxes on it, you know,
1:02:22
Speaker 1: once or maybe twice, once when you buy, once when
1:02:25
Speaker 1: you sell, and that's it. The problem is in a
1:02:29
Speaker 1: state like Florida, which has no other income tax nor
1:02:32
Speaker 1: you know, there's only so many ways you can upcharge
1:02:36
Speaker 1: and add fees to tourists. You know. Trust me, if
1:02:39
Speaker 1: you're not a resident of Florida and you check into
1:02:42
Speaker 1: a hotel and rent a car, you wouldn't believe all
1:02:45
Speaker 1: of the fees that you pay in order to subsidize
1:02:50
Speaker 1: residents that live in the state of Florida in order
1:02:53
Speaker 1: for them not to ever have a state income tax.
1:02:57
Speaker 1: I don't see how you pull it off, and you
1:03:00
Speaker 1: probably only increase income inequality, and you will have you know,
1:03:04
Speaker 1: you take a look at some of these smaller counties.
1:03:06
Speaker 1: I spend a lot of time in northwest Florida. Scambia County,
1:03:10
Speaker 1: fairly large county, Santa Rosa County. The largest employers in
1:03:15
Speaker 1: these counties, by the way, very red counties. The largest
1:03:17
Speaker 1: employers in these counties are usually the government school system,
1:03:21
Speaker 1: you know, other government agencies. Well, you you know, you're
1:03:25
Speaker 1: you know, you start messing around with the property tax
1:03:29
Speaker 1: system and the funding system. Where are they going to
1:03:31
Speaker 1: get there? Where are they going to get their funds
1:03:33
Speaker 1: to run their government? And then all of a sudden,
1:03:35
Speaker 1: you're gonna have who bunch of unemployed people. I don't
1:03:39
Speaker 1: think this is going to get as far as DeSantis
1:03:42
Speaker 1: dreams on this. When it comes to property taxes, he's
1:03:45
Speaker 1: got to have to put it on a ballot initiative.
1:03:48
Speaker 1: So it's and it needs to in all ballot initiais
1:03:51
Speaker 1: in Florida have to get sixty percent, which is a
1:03:53
Speaker 1: pretty tall order, as we've learned. So I don't know
1:03:57
Speaker 1: how you do it. And I think, you know, now,
1:04:01
Speaker 1: maybe that's the feature. You know, I think Governor DeSantis
1:04:04
Speaker 1: would say, great, starve the beast. Right, this is the
1:04:07
Speaker 1: starve the beast mindset that is taken over. The thing
1:04:11
Speaker 1: is is that there's general consensus. As I shared with
1:04:14
Speaker 1: you in my last episode, seventy percent of the country
1:04:17
Speaker 1: does not think we should cut services to cut taxes. Right.
1:04:21
Speaker 1: There is a large majority in this country that believes
1:04:24
Speaker 1: that we should have a safety net and believes that
1:04:26
Speaker 1: there should be a well funded government. Okay, we can
1:04:29
Speaker 1: debate on what size all that is, but there's general consensus.
1:04:34
Speaker 1: So the idea of starving the beast is only popular
1:04:37
Speaker 1: with about one in four voters. Three and four voters
1:04:41
Speaker 1: have something government does that they think should keep going.
1:04:45
Speaker 1: And I think that that's where you would have. And
1:04:49
Speaker 1: my guess is a referendum on this will actually get trounced.
1:04:53
Speaker 1: I don't think it would be that close. But maybe
1:04:57
Speaker 1: I haven't. Maybe I'm not spending enough time in Florida
1:05:00
Speaker 1: these days. All right, last question for the episode comes
1:05:04
Speaker 1: from Adam and Davy Florida. All right, Florida man, he goes.
1:05:08
Speaker 1: I really enjoy your podcast format. It provides great entertainment
1:05:10
Speaker 1: useful information simultaneously. All Right, I'm being called entertaining. Take
1:05:17
Speaker 1: that those of you who think I drone on too long. Anyway,
1:05:22
Speaker 1: He's quickly become my daily political podcast of choice. Thank
1:05:25
Speaker 1: you particularly appreciate your passionate modern institutionalist viewpoint, which I share. Texas,
1:05:29
Speaker 1: North Carolina both that March primaries. You know it, brother,
1:05:32
Speaker 1: after the votes locked in, do you think those House
1:05:34
Speaker 1: reps do begin to distance their self from Trump via
1:05:37
Speaker 1: their own House votes? Any one or two that you
1:05:39
Speaker 1: think already have a foot out the door on trump Ism? Well,
1:05:43
Speaker 1: this is exactly what I'm going to be curious about,
1:05:46
Speaker 1: is that once primary season is over, do you see
1:05:49
Speaker 1: a change? Now? Look, North Carolina, Texas earn't a lot
1:05:52
Speaker 1: of hugely competitive races there. Let me get on this
1:05:56
Speaker 1: primary calendar. I you know, I'm I'm in I'm thinking
1:06:00
Speaker 1: it's going to be the Midwest is where I would
1:06:04
Speaker 1: be focused on. This memo to any organization that claims
1:06:08
Speaker 1: to have a primary calendar, do not put it in
1:06:10
Speaker 1: alphabetical order. Please put it in chronocological chronological order. We
1:06:14
Speaker 1: do not. You know, it just drives me nuts that
1:06:18
Speaker 1: when some institutions use alphabetical order on something where you
1:06:23
Speaker 1: were dates is the whole thing that you're looking for.
1:06:26
Speaker 1: Please chronological order, all right, So I think the first
1:06:31
Speaker 1: I think the first place that we might see some
1:06:34
Speaker 1: of this pushback. Oohy, I'm looking here. Look, obviously the
1:06:39
Speaker 1: main nineteenth primaries, which is a pretty busy night of primaries.
1:06:43
Speaker 1: You're going to have Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania.
1:06:46
Speaker 1: I think obviously that's the Thomas Massey primary, So that's
1:06:50
Speaker 1: going to be a big deal. Dan Crenshaw in Texas
1:06:55
Speaker 1: he would be a big one to watch if he
1:06:57
Speaker 1: gets through, if he is able to serve maybe there's
1:07:00
Speaker 1: no runoff. He wins without the support of Trump. Does
1:07:06
Speaker 1: he show that there is a way to do this
1:07:08
Speaker 1: and that you don't have anything to fear with him.
1:07:13
Speaker 1: But I still think that the Republicans that are most
1:07:16
Speaker 1: likely going to be looking for a way to break
1:07:18
Speaker 1: from Trump, at least on the tariff issue, it's going
1:07:21
Speaker 1: to be those with with with with important parts of
1:07:25
Speaker 1: the farm economy. So that's Iowa, perhaps that's Nebraska. Very
1:07:31
Speaker 1: curious how Pete Ricketts navigates this. Right. Don Bacon has
1:07:35
Speaker 1: been very you know, he's not running. It would have
1:07:37
Speaker 1: been more awkward if he had Bacon running for reelection
1:07:40
Speaker 1: and being critical of Trump on tariffs versus Pete Ricketts,
1:07:44
Speaker 1: who probably doesn't like the tariffs either, but is a
1:07:48
Speaker 1: you know, doesn't want to upset upset him. Does that
1:07:53
Speaker 1: change after they passed their primary, because Trump's gotten involved
1:07:57
Speaker 1: in primaries before in the RASCA, so that would be.
1:08:02
Speaker 1: But I just think the farm states generally are where
1:08:05
Speaker 1: I would expect the first folks to peel off, because
1:08:08
Speaker 1: it's the tariffs that I think are the safest place
1:08:12
Speaker 1: to show some distance from Trump and not alienate the magabase.
1:08:30
Speaker 1: All Right, I've gone long. I know I've gone long,
1:08:34
Speaker 1: but I you know, I do have something to say
1:08:37
Speaker 1: about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. And first
1:08:41
Speaker 1: of all, one of my favorite things every year is
1:08:44
Speaker 1: sort of the is the induction ceremony where they have
1:08:47
Speaker 1: these where all the artists get up there and they start,
1:08:50
Speaker 1: you know, doing something great, and some of them do it.
1:08:52
Speaker 1: Sometimes there's there's other artists come in and sing along
1:08:55
Speaker 1: with them. Some of them have been terrific live concerts.
1:08:58
Speaker 1: I think the twenty fifth anniversary one is is one
1:09:02
Speaker 1: of those CDs that I own and then uploaded to
1:09:07
Speaker 1: my Apple library. So I love the Rock and Roll
1:09:11
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. I've been there multiple times in Cleveland.
1:09:14
Speaker 1: I think it's fantastic. My only complaint about the museum
1:09:18
Speaker 1: itself is not enough music playing. Like when I go
1:09:21
Speaker 1: room to room, I want to, I want to. I
1:09:23
Speaker 1: want the music curated for me. I don't want to
1:09:26
Speaker 1: have to go and you know, do these But it's
1:09:27
Speaker 1: a museum, so I get that they've not quite figured
1:09:30
Speaker 1: that out. And of course the ceremony is never in Cleveland.
1:09:34
Speaker 1: It's always now in New York, which is this? But
1:09:36
Speaker 1: here's my only beef, like the Rock and Roll Hall
1:09:39
Speaker 1: of Fame that the nominees and we're seeing this this
1:09:44
Speaker 1: has increasingly been the case, right, our artists who you
1:09:49
Speaker 1: cannot find if you just search rock and roll on
1:09:54
Speaker 1: your favorite streaming music app Right, Like, all right, so
1:09:58
Speaker 1: Phil Collins as a solo artist, he's pop genesis, he
1:10:02
Speaker 1: had rock, Lauren Hill, Wu Tank Klang in excess. Are
1:10:08
Speaker 1: they rock? Melissa Etherrich, Luther Vandros that's hard and b
1:10:14
Speaker 1: that's not rock? Right, new addition, Shakira is that rock?
1:10:20
Speaker 1: And I love me some Shakira, don't get me wrong.
1:10:22
Speaker 1: Now you have other nominees, Black Crows clearly rock, Iron
1:10:26
Speaker 1: Maiden clearly rock. But Mariah Carey, you know it's interesting
1:10:34
Speaker 1: I did. I did a little research with my friend
1:10:37
Speaker 1: mister Gemini, right just to just to see. I asked it.
1:10:41
Speaker 1: I said, hey, what genre are these artists in? And
1:10:45
Speaker 1: you actually find them in the rock genre of Spotify
1:10:49
Speaker 1: or Apple Music. So according to my friend mister Gemini,
1:10:53
Speaker 1: the true rockers, right, the safest, best for traditional that
1:10:57
Speaker 1: you'd actually find in your if you were listening, if
1:11:00
Speaker 1: you're in if you're searching your genres of rock or metal, right,
1:11:05
Speaker 1: you'll get Iron Maiden, Oasis, the Black Crows. They put
1:11:10
Speaker 1: Melissa Etheridge in rock. Okay, you know I could be
1:11:14
Speaker 1: talked into that. I think she's more of a genre blender,
1:11:18
Speaker 1: if you will. Jeff Buckley, all right, Then they and
1:11:22
Speaker 1: then mister jem and I came up with what he
1:11:24
Speaker 1: called the genre blenders. They often have rock listed as
1:11:27
Speaker 1: a secondary genre or are also categorized as pop rock. Right,
1:11:31
Speaker 1: so more pop music depending on the album. Phil Collins
1:11:35
Speaker 1: is is pop rock in excess, primarily new wave. But
1:11:42
Speaker 1: then they come up with dance rock. I've never seen
1:11:44
Speaker 1: a genre of dance rock. Am I ignorant? Am I
1:11:47
Speaker 1: missing this this genre. If you will now punk I
1:11:53
Speaker 1: would do that. Then there's you know, those that were
1:11:56
Speaker 1: with it that have no rock tags on their songs.
1:11:59
Speaker 1: Even in the secondary line. According to mister Gemini, Wu
1:12:02
Speaker 1: Tang Clan, Lauren Hill, they're exclusively hip hop and rat
1:12:05
Speaker 1: Mariah Carey, Pink Shakira primarily pop, though this notes that
1:12:11
Speaker 1: Pink occasionally gets a pop rock tag for early two
1:12:14
Speaker 1: thousand work obviously Luther Vandros the New Edition R and
1:12:18
Speaker 1: B and soul and you have shut A usually tagged
1:12:22
Speaker 1: this soul or jazz. So look, it's interesting. The first
1:12:29
Speaker 1: time nominees. We don't know who's going to get in.
1:12:32
Speaker 1: The First time nominees this year are Phil Collins, Lauryn Hill,
1:12:35
Speaker 1: Wu Tang Clan, Jeff Buckley, in Excess, Melissa Ethlerts, Lucier Vandros,
1:12:40
Speaker 1: New Edition, Pink Shakira. Phil Collins is going to get in.
1:12:44
Speaker 1: Genesis is already in. Phil Collins has health issues. I
1:12:48
Speaker 1: promise you Phil Collins is going to get in. They're
1:12:51
Speaker 1: gonna won him at that ceremony there now. Second time
1:12:55
Speaker 1: haven't gotten in yet, Black Crows, Billy Idle not in yet.
1:13:00
Speaker 1: Shot Eh Billy Idol, Come on, we gotta put him in.
1:13:05
Speaker 1: I think he belongs. And then the third time nominee
1:13:09
Speaker 1: who haven't gotten in. They've been nominated three times, still
1:13:11
Speaker 1: haven't gotten the call. Iron Maiden. I was kind of
1:13:16
Speaker 1: into metal. Iron Maiden was never at the top of
1:13:18
Speaker 1: my list. I respect I respect their damn don't get
1:13:22
Speaker 1: me wrong, Oasis. I gotta pull for Oasis. It's my
1:13:27
Speaker 1: son's favorite nineties band. He thinks Oasis, he goes, okay,
1:13:31
Speaker 1: he thinks it's one of the best bands he's ever
1:13:33
Speaker 1: heard in the nineties. Don't judge him too harshly on that.
1:13:37
Speaker 1: Now I have kid, I think Oasis is touring again,
1:13:40
Speaker 1: and I think mom and son, we're gonna go check
1:13:43
Speaker 1: that one out. New order in Mariah Carey also in
1:13:47
Speaker 1: the third time. But Mariah Carey, I first of all,
1:13:53
Speaker 1: this is where Mariah Carey belongs. In a Hall of
1:13:56
Speaker 1: fame of music hard stop? Right? Is it rock? Do
1:14:04
Speaker 1: we need to rename this Hall of fame and just
1:14:06
Speaker 1: call it popular music Hall of Fame because that's essentially
1:14:10
Speaker 1: what we've done. And you know, look, I'm a I
1:14:13
Speaker 1: don't want to call myself a rock purist, but I
1:14:15
Speaker 1: miss rock and roll. I don't think we have rock
1:14:18
Speaker 1: and roll anymore. Right, there are no rock bands anymore
1:14:22
Speaker 1: any I miss the electric guitar. The only place you
1:14:25
Speaker 1: can find good electric guitar riffs these days is in
1:14:28
Speaker 1: country music. And it's interesting. It's like what we used
1:14:31
Speaker 1: to call southern rock has almost all become country rock,
1:14:35
Speaker 1: if you will, and you see a lot more of
1:14:38
Speaker 1: it there, so I you know, and that would have
1:14:40
Speaker 1: been my way, but I'd love Look, we are all
1:14:45
Speaker 1: experts about our own music tastes, so I'm not going
1:14:47
Speaker 1: to sit here and claim I'm an expert. I have
1:14:49
Speaker 1: a very eclectic music taste as a one time music
1:14:52
Speaker 1: major in college. I will put my are my musical
1:14:58
Speaker 1: knowledge up against anybody on that front. But I'd love
1:15:02
Speaker 1: to hear from you guys on this of what's your
1:15:06
Speaker 1: definition of rock? Have we had a great new rock
1:15:09
Speaker 1: band since The Killers? You know? Part of me feels
1:15:12
Speaker 1: like that, you know, And are we done with rock
1:15:16
Speaker 1: the genre itself? Or is there a chance it comes back?
1:15:21
Speaker 1: Does Jen Alpha bring it back? For some reason? Now,
1:15:24
Speaker 1: I've heard other people argue that rock isn't necessarily a
1:15:27
Speaker 1: style of music. It is a it is are you do.
1:15:32
Speaker 1: You have something to say? It is you know that
1:15:35
Speaker 1: the whole point of rock music was to make the
1:15:38
Speaker 1: older crowd and the establishment uncomfortable. And that's that's why
1:15:42
Speaker 1: hip hop qualifies as rock and roll, because like rock
1:15:47
Speaker 1: and roll of the fifties and sixties, which was a
1:15:48
Speaker 1: disruptive music genre, so too has hip hop and rap
1:15:53
Speaker 1: been a disruptive music genre for the so called establishment.
1:15:58
Speaker 1: You know, that's a very expansive definition of of rock
1:16:02
Speaker 1: and roll, but I still view it as an actual
1:16:05
Speaker 1: music genre, so in that sense, And I think the
1:16:10
Speaker 1: last rock band that I downloaded and was digging was
1:16:14
Speaker 1: Modest Mouse. All right, I would love some suggestions from you, guys.
1:16:20
Speaker 1: Am I am, I totally. You know. One of my
1:16:23
Speaker 1: frustrations with with algorithms and streaming services now is that
1:16:27
Speaker 1: even if you try to get new music, it feels
1:16:30
Speaker 1: like it's always trying to figure out what they think
1:16:32
Speaker 1: your taste is, and you get sort of curated new
1:16:35
Speaker 1: stuff that feels you're like, no, no, no, no, no, I
1:16:39
Speaker 1: don't I don't want that. So I used to have
1:16:42
Speaker 1: a lot of younger nieces and nephews and cousins who
1:16:45
Speaker 1: were pretty good about keeping me up to date. I
1:16:48
Speaker 1: wanted to know what was the interesting new music and
1:16:52
Speaker 1: I missed that. You know. I got my son. He's
1:16:56
Speaker 1: not listening to new music. He's going back old school
1:16:59
Speaker 1: and he's he's into the nineties. I got a swiftie
1:17:03
Speaker 1: that's a senior in college, and I'll just leave the
1:17:05
Speaker 1: you know. And Taylor is who she is. But I
1:17:11
Speaker 1: don't know if my daughter is ready to leave the
1:17:16
Speaker 1: Swifty Nation to keep pursuing other interesting new music. So
1:17:21
Speaker 1: I would love your thoughts on this. But yes, I
1:17:23
Speaker 1: think the big story out of this nomination is I
1:17:27
Speaker 1: suspect Phil Collins, who again Jenesis is already in, so
1:17:31
Speaker 1: I don't know is he already in? And now he'll
1:17:34
Speaker 1: be in as a solo artist, but I think that'll
1:17:37
Speaker 1: be a pretty poignant moment, assuming he does get the call,
1:17:42
Speaker 1: which I suspect he will. All Right, So because I
1:17:45
Speaker 1: have a podcast, I can have random opinions about anything
1:17:47
Speaker 1: I feel like having, and I decided to have some
1:17:50
Speaker 1: random opinions about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
1:17:52
Speaker 1: All right, that Enjurir weekend. I'll see in seventy two hours.
1:17:56
Speaker 1: And guess what, when I see you next time, we
1:17:59
Speaker 1: are going to be the eve of the start of
1:18:01
Speaker 1: campaign twenty twenty six. Officially, this is this is where
1:18:06
Speaker 1: I this is this is my sweet spot, this is
1:18:09
Speaker 1: what I love. This is why you tune in. I'll
1:18:12
Speaker 1: see after the weekend