Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/27/26: U.S. To Steal Iran Oil, Bill Gates Dire Warning on AI, META Screen Time For Kids

Transcript

8/27/26: U.S. To Steal Iran Oil, Bill Gates Dire Warning on AI, META Screen Time For Kids · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: the future of this show.
• 0:08
  Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest
• 0:10
  Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does
• 0:13
  Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: together for you every morning in your inbox.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: I have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro Show.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: People live for the pound. The back-to-back bro show. It's
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: great to be here with you, Ryan.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Do you want to do your pitch before we do,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: since that's what you do?
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: If you didn't do it yesterday, though, you're not going
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: to do it today.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: No, you might. You never know who's going to watch it.
• 0:52
  Speaker 5: Just browbeat them. Go to BreakingPoints.com. You get a month
• 0:55
  Speaker 5: of the show free. So that means no ads. You
• 0:58
  Speaker 5: get a link to watch the entire show. Sometimes it works,
• 1:01
  Speaker 5: sometimes it doesn't. But the more people who actually do it,
• 1:05
  Speaker 5: then the more likely it is that long-term it's going
• 1:07
  Speaker 5: to work all the time.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: How about that for a pitch?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Yes. I could always count on you to give our
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: best pitch, Ryan. Thank you very much. All right, go ahead.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Listen to the man. Honestly, though, Ryan's conversion numbers are
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: sometimes better than mine. There you go. So that's why
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm turning it over to Instagram. Honesty and advertising.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: It's true honesty and advertising.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: All right. Okay, what do I got in front of me?
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: Here's what we're going to do. We're going to start
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: off with Iran. The Trump administration is seeking to revive
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: a civil war maritime court, which will allow them to
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: take Iranian oil as a prize, almost like something.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: out of master and commander. We're also going to cover
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the midterms.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: There's some crazy developments happening with serious races in South Carolina, Alaska,
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: and elsewhere, which are genuinely, at least polling-wise, seem up
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: for grabs whenever it comes to the Democratic Party. And
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: we're also going to talk about Donald Trump's own midterms
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: pitch and part of the wrench that he's throwing in
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: for a lot of Republican candidates. We're going to talk
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: about AI. Whenever it comes to AI, there is a
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: new Bill Gates essay, which has come out, warning, quote,
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: about the insane new reality millions of people are to
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: be put out of work.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And it comes on the heels of a new OpenAI.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: Actually report, which shows you'll remember when they used their
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: model and it went and it hacked another company. Some
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: of the details have been released at a technical level
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: that genuinely terrifying. We're going to cover Meta and its
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: new agreement after numerous states attorney generals sued them for
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: alleged harm against children. They are now basically in a
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: big tobacco-esque type settlement agreement, have agreed to pay some
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: $ 17 billion to the various states. But the big picture,
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: big change is the number of restrictions they are now
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: putting in place for teen accounts. They're calling on YouTube
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: and TikTok to also abide. by this, it could change
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: the future of social media for basically anybody under 18
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: in this country.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Russia.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Ryan actually flagged this story. What is it, the fourth
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: largest oil refinery in Russia?
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and the second largest producer of gasoline.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Yes, the second largest producer of gasoline, fourth largest oil
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: refinery in Russia was taken offline by a new Ukrainian
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: drone attack. And this comes after some new revelations that
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: the CIA director took an unprecedented trip directly to Moscow
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: to warn President Putin and his cabinet to his face
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: not to attack NATO countries.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And this is exactly at a time when U.S.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Intelligence continues to assess that a tactical nuclear weapon used
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: by the Russians seems more likely and that actually all
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: of this seems to be spurred on by the weapons
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: crisis of munitions in the West, where Putin is smelling
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: weakness on the Trump administration and the American empire. We
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: are also going to be joined by our great friend
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: of the show, Juan David Rojas. He is going to
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: talk to us about a new CIA ground war in Mexico.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: And then finally, I saved this one just for you, Ryan.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: My old friend of the show, Ben Schreckinger, who is.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: An ex-politico journalist.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: He wrote the Hunter Biden book.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: He wrote the Hunter Biden book.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So he's got real bona fides.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: But he has decided to quit his establishment media career.
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: and go all in on UFOs. So he is a
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: man truly after my own heart.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: That's great. He's got a new publication.
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: No offense to the people involved in the UFO thing,
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: but this is a serious.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I agree. That's why I want to celebrate him. I
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: want to encourage people to go and subscribe to his work.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: All right. So with all of that, let's get to Iran.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: Turning to Iran, major story that just broke and kind
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: of gives us a preview into what the next month
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: or two will look like in the Iran war is
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: that while the munitions themselves won't be flying from the U.S. side,
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: they are trying to constrain Iran. And it's not just
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: part of the economic blockade. It also entails literally stealing
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: their oil. So let's put this up here on the screen.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: This is from Bloomberg.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: U.S.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Aims to revive a Civil War-era court to claim Iranian
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: oil as a prize. The Justice Department is now preparing
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: to activate a long-dormant maritime war court to streamline military
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: capture of Iranian.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Oil as U.S. prizes. Prize courts, which.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: Are expected to face significant legal challenge, will strengthen the
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: blockade of Iran and offset the cost of the conflict.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: they are pointing specifically to reviving the prize court as
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: an ancient body of maritime law. So this, as I said,
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: immediately reminds me of like a master and commander. We
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: mean to take her a prize. And it makes sense
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: because it's literally a Civil War era court, kind of
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: harkens back to, what is it, Letters of Mark, where
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: privateers can be authorized by the king to go abroad
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: and and to take these foreign assets, whatever they take.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: What I'm interested in is the crew in traditional prize law,
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: I believe. The captain gets 50%, the crew gets 3%.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: So are we going to see seaborne mercenaries, or is
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: it just the Navy?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: How is this all going to work?
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: And this is what was so revolutionary about the actual
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: pirates of the actual Caribbean back in the day. They
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: would share the prize equally, whereas you had these kind
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: of mercantile, capitalistic privateers who would go out and the
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: captain would take most of it. So clearly the next
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: stage has to be the privatization of this. So Hegseth
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: has to then, what's the word you use where you
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: basically allow other privateers?
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: A letter of mark. So Hegseth needs to do that.
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: So there are a lot of ships that can't get
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: in and out. So now they can kind of arm
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: themselves with their own little drone swarms.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: And then they can patrol. And why stop at the
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz?
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Why not just take anybody's oil?
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: There are ships all over the oceans.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: Like then there are many oceans.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: And so it almost would undermine literally the backbone of
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: the empire, which is freedom of navigation.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It's no such thing. Freedom of navigation. Freedom of navigation
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is a fake thing.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Created by us to backstop global trade because we were
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: the great recipients of extremely cheap goods. But as they
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: show now, the unfinalized plans, if adopted, leads to a
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: faster path for federal prosecutors to claim oil and other
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: cargo taken from enemy or neutral vessels.
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: Exactly. You know what's better than extremely cheap goods?
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Free goods.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Would then be the potential litigants expected to challenge the
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: prize court's use, maritime lawyers and others said, because they
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: would face the operational hurdle of carrying out the court
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: process of which they have zero experience. And so, once
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: a regular feature of 18th and 19th century naval combat,
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: it has gone largely unused since the Spanish-American War of
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: 1898 and has lain entirely dormant since World War II.
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: In recent decades, they have relied instead on civil forfeiture law,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: as the mechanism for seizing ships and obtaining their assets
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: to enforce sanctions violation.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: But according to.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: Them, that's just too late, and they need to show
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: the American public that we're getting something out of it.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: Of course, as we all know what would happen with Venezuela,
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: we're going to make billions of dollars in oil.
• 8:21
  Speaker 6: Oh, oops.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Actually, we seized a tanker. The tanker, it turns out, needs.
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: $ 50 million, the Venezuelans, to retrofit. And then the amount
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: of oil that we need to pump and ship on
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: a daily basis would take a year or two just
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: to make up the retrofit cost before you can go
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: into the black. Same thing happens with many of the
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: refineries and all the other investments that we're trying to make.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: It turns out that the amount of oil we're getting
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: from Venezuela is piddly compared to the amount, of course,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: that's even held up with record transfers.
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: What it requires is some level of business certainty. Two
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: years from now, the regime that's in place is going
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: to be the same regime. And I don't mean government.
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: I mean just the arrangement by which you're pumping out, refining,
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: and shipping oil. And nobody thinks Trump can be trusted
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: week to week to be doing the same thing. So
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: I sound like some wild conservative out here talking about
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: business certainty, but— Yeah, this is just not how you're
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: going to.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: No, it's still a thing, Ryan. I mean, there are
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: basic principles.
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: It's a pretty basic principle.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: It's like MBA 101. Let's put the next one up
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: here on the screen. This is Trump. The real reason
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: why Trump wants economic sanctions in Iran from the Atlantic.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: They say that the quieter, longer-term strategy will help push
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: the conflict. out of the minds of voters ahead of
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: the midterms. So basically, they're putting it on the back burner,
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: if we're being real. And this is why, for the Iranians,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: part of the reason I just want to pick up
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: on our theme from yesterday, where you and I were saying, yeah,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: it's easy for the U.S.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: To say, okay, we're just going to hold off till
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the midterms.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: And the Iranians, who of course can read, are like, oh,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: so they want to hold off to the midterms and
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: they want to constrain us, steal our oil and and cause,
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: you know, major economic chaos in our country.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we're just not going to let them do that.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So we're going to start bombing them in the first place, which.
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: Very likely they just hit a Kuwaiti flag tanker yesterday
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: in the Strait of Hormuz, obviously as a major shot
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: at the Gulf countries who are trying to do these
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: ship to ship transfers, basically trying their absolute best to
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: disrupt any oil traffic that doesn't come via them and
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: it's not having any paid fee. On top of that,
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: just to expand a little bit, yesterday morning, we said
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: that Iran and Oman had had that meeting. The IRGC
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: then announced shortly after our show had wrapped that they
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: had officially agreed on an exact fee structure with Oman.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Hasn't been confirmed yet from the Omani side, but they
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: haven't disputed that report.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: And at the same time, we can put the third
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: element here, you're starting to see significant unrest in Iran.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: The U.S.
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: Does, in fact, have the ability to cause enormous amounts
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: of economic pain and suffering for Iranian businesses, consumers, and workers.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: You're starting to see some tiny little protests pop up,
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: which didn't happen during the war. It's a country of
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: 90 million people being pushed over the edge. Shortages of
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: basic necessities of life, food and fuel. And so it's
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: kind of a race against misery.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: And I would.
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: Imagine that the Iranians, some Iranians had said, no, we
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: need to drive this through to the midterms to punish Trump.
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: Some Iranians may be starting to realize that Trump doesn't
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: necessarily care about the midterm results in the way that
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: you would expect a.
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: Traditional president would.
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: And then they might be thinking, okay, wait a minute,
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: what if we do that And then it's a day
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: after the midterms. And now there's he's a lame duck
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: and there's nothing for two years.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Then what?
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: So the Iranians are having to kind of recalibrate their thinking,
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: because even though they were they've got psychologists.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: On staff to help them understand Trump.
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: He is a different kind of figure that requires a different.
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: Kind of strategic analysis than anything anybody.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Is used to.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: And just to put a bow on it, tomorrow is
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: the six-month anniversary of the attack on Iran.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: It was going to be three days.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Just a three-day, what did he say, an excursion. It's
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: going to be a little excursion.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: It's not a war. He was posting and comparing it.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: to Vietnam, which, you know, even a month or two
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: in the conflict, we were like, oh, this is not
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: so great. He also, yes, yesterday, maybe we can add
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: this in post, posted a graphic saying, mission accomplished of 2026,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: and a picture of Bush crying.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: In 2003.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: So implying that he had the real mission accomplished. I
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: would say neither accomplished their mission.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: So thank you, Mr.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Price. Truly impressive commitment to the bit.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: That's where things stand.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: Another last thing I wanted to mention is just to
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: show you how things remain hot and also how the U.S.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Has learned literally nothing.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: Just hours ago, right before we started the show, there
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: were multiple drones that tried to swarm a Saudi Arabian
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: tanker in the Yanbu region, which is near that Yanbu
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: oil pipeline, and a Greek military drone.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Detachment, clearly under the U.S.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Umbrella, fired a bunch of Patriot interceptors against these very,
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: very cheap drones.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So nothing has changed.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: We're still, we're firing, you know, Western military firing $ 4
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: million missiles at $ 10, 000, $ 25, 000 drones. Did it even work?
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: They probably will never tell us. But just to show
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: you that even that confirmation shows the asymmetric warfare still
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: relies very much on Iran's side. Professor Pape's analysis yesterday
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: showed very much holding true. They definitely hold the upper hand. OK,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: let's get to the midterms. Turning now to the midterms, where,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: of course, we're keeping a close eye on. It's out
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: now of the summer doldrums. Congress will be back in
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: session in just a matter of days in September as
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: they do some last minute. Usually they just fund the
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: government and then they leave again until it's time for reelection.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: So absolutely nothing of real consequence will happen before Congress.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: Republicans are being forced now to run both on their
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: record and on the president's record. So checking in with
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: the median American voter, MSNBC sent some guy to Iowa,
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: Trump country, normally, right?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Can we say that confidently? Iowa's Trump country.
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know about the Senate race.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right. Well, we'll get to that.
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: And so they tracked down a MAGA guy. They're like, hey, man,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: you voted for Trump. How are you feeling about Trump
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: these days? Here's what he had to say.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Two years out of high school and I'm already.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: struggling for my life.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: That's not the American dream. If you could talk directly
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: to President Trump, what would you tell him right now?
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: I would just look him in the face and just say,
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: f * * * you. That's about it.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: So that joins a series that we have played here
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: on the show, including MAGA voters. Yeah, I thought the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: same thing. Are those MAGA glasses? That's what they said.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: They said he's MAGA. I mean, I don't know.
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: He needs to suck it up and eat ramen, right?
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: Isn't that what Ben Shapiro said?
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: No, yeah, he needs to eat ramen and buy the
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: ingredients for meatless burritos from his local Aldi. And that,
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: of course, is how Ben Shapiro made it to the
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: big leagues. But I think generally this is going to
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: track now where you have people who are enthusiastic Republicans.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: They're not going to come out to vote. Democrats are
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: going to crawl over broken glass. to make sure that
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: they come out and vote, which leads to a perfect
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: storm and all kinds of crazy conclusions. And I want
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: to say, many of the races we're about to highlight
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: are ones, they're not ones which are obvious. Like, Michigan
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: is an obvious one. You have, you know, any of
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: these other battleground states where even coming into the election, Maine, right, exactly,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: we knew these were going to be very contested races.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: To focus in today, we're going to try and focus
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: on the potential blowout scenario, which I would give like
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: a 30% chance or something high enough that people should
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: be very worried.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look first at A2. So this is
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a Reuters Ipsos poll, very high quality poll, actually.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: And what they found is is that Trump's approval holds
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: at a record low as U.S.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Support for the Iran war falls.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: And specifically, what they found is that Trump's general approval
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: rating is now at a level that has really not
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: been seen for Donald Trump, or that has not been
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: seen for Donald Trump ever, obviously, in the first term
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: and in the second term. But it has fallen to
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: 33 percent and a 14 point drop from the start
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: of his second term, a four point decline from just
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: a month ago when it had already stood at 37.
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: It puts him in the same territory as it puts
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: him in the exact same territory as George W. Bush
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: in 2005, 2006, right around the nadir of the Iraq war.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: It puts him in the same territory or it puts
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: him in territory never before seen by Barack Obama, especially
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: for a longer period of time. What's also interesting here
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: is the disapproval number. It's not just like I'm neutral.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: It's 64% arise to disapproval, right?
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: So a strong feeling.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: And then even more interestingly- His strong approval of MAGA
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: amongst self-identified MAGA voters at an all-time low.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: And you can start to see this.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Is that some Trump-endorsed candidates, all of a sudden they
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: stop winning.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Or they win in very, very close elections. Like Darlene.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: Exactly, like Darlene Graham. And I think that is what
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: really puts things into perspective. Let's put the economist piece up. Ryan,
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: I'll throw it to you. for this one, just to
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: put some of these numbers in context.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: So yes, I was thinking about Bush too, when you
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: were talking about that, because 2005, six, seven, and then
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: he stumbles into the financial crisis and people are like,
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: Oh God, like fire this man into the sun.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: Uh, he became just absolute.
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: Political kryptonite, but you're looking, but so if you're just
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: listening to this on, on audio, the economist is finding,
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: you know, his net approval minus 26% which, you know,
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: even a drop from last week, this is 35% approved.
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: 61% disapproved.
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: Those are the kinds of levels of toxicity that you
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: only get from, like, almost Hoover-level stuff. But yet he
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: doesn't have the, like, Hoover and Bush stench on him
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: because he has effectively conveyed the notion that he doesn't
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: care and that he's kind of above... democratic checks and balances.
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: At this point, it's kind of a fascinating development. Yet,
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: it is real. This is genuine political gravity. And at
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: the same time, this comes a couple days after he
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: had this win at the Supreme Court where he's trying
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: to restrict and take control.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Of mail-in balloting.
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of, and maybe he'll be able to
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: do something. We don't know. Let's see.
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: But there's a lot of political science research that shows
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: that serious efforts to do kind of voter suppression efforts
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: end up either neutral if they get implemented or backfiring.
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: Because nothing galvanizes people to vote more than.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: The perception that they're being.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Stopped from voting. Yeah, like MAGA 2024, too big to rig.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, I hear Democrats say it now. They're like,
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: too big to rig.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's exactly. No, but it's smart. I mean, that's
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: what you.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: They want you to not be able to vote.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: And you were thinking about voting.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Right. And you're like, I have to vote. Got to vote.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: You know, to put some.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: Context here, because this is so crazy, is Trump is
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: negative net approval in 47 out of 50 states. Can
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: you guess, Ryan, three states in which Trump has a
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: net positive approval rating?
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: Let's see.
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: Does he is he still net positive mississippi no okay
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: let's see.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: One of them still likes one of them has like
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: one of the lowest populations in the united states there's
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: a hint like idaho why what idaho wyoming that's two
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it's two out of three there's one.
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: More not alabama not alabama Is it near there?
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: It's near us. It's kind of near us. West Virginia.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: West Virginia, of course. All right, so West Virginia, plus 4. Wyoming,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: plus 9. And Idaho, plus 7.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: So everywhere else, every other state in the nation, he
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: is minus approval rating. In fact, let me just check
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: in on some of the battleground states, if you will. Texas,
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: minus 22. Wisconsin, minus 27. Michigan, minus 26. Even the
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: traditional ones, Pennsylvania, minus 26. Florida, minus 18. Whenever we
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: check Nevada, minus 25. Arizona, minus 23. Georgia, minus 30.
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: I can continue.
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: Any state with an urban area larger than like 50,000 people.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Maine, minus 32. I mean, look, these are catastrophic numbers.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: And actually, they fit generally with the overall trend. So
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: 47 out of 50 states, you have a net negative
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: approval rating. That doesn't mean necessarily that you will vote
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: for the Democrat in the race. But you can see
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: significant drop in some of the constituencies, which he needs most.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: So men, you actually have almost a minus 20 approval rating. Women,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: it's around minus 35. Boomers remain Trump's strongest, his stronghold
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: at just minus 15. For under 30, it's around minus 35,
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: 30 to 44. Our millennial cohort, it's right around minus 40.
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: Even amongst white Americans, it's minus 18. You even have Hispanics,
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: minus 35. high school, college, or high school degree or less, still, again,
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: Trump's strongest around minus 16. So the absolute strongest demographics
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: are even ones where you're seeing double-digit disapproval territory. You also,
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: on some of the most important stuff for what is
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: the most important issue facing America, If you look and
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: ask Republicans, they're still going to say inflation, jobs in
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: the economy, immigration.
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: Not stopping Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Iran literally not even in the top five. National
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: security they have as number eight, which I guess you
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: could say. is there, but economy remains number one. So
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: that statistic, about 47 out of 50, this leads us
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: now kind of into the territory of asking, well, what
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: does that actual blowout look like? Especially because Trump has
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: exerted his force amongst MAGA Republicans, for example, to push
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Darlene Graham over the finish line.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Here's Harry Anton talking about that. Let's take a listen.
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: Donald Trump is still the sun on which the planets
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: of the GOP revolve around.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: You could see it quite well here.
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: Look at this. Trump endorses one Senate primaries. If the
• 22:57
  Speaker 6: person that he endorsed is not an elected incumbent like
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: Darlene Graham was, you know, since 2022 or 2022 is
• 23:04
  Speaker 6: about 95% of the time.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Has that weakened at all this cycle? No, it is not.
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: It has actually gotten stronger.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Look at this.
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: A hundred percent of the time, if Trump endorsed a
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: non-elected incumbent like Darlene Graham, they in fact won the
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: Republican primary for United States Senate. Trump's name is still
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: the one that GOP voters buy when it comes to
• 23:27
  Speaker 6: Senate endorsement.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: So that's what she said.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: He says, he said, yep, they're still the ones that
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: are buying it.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: However, what does it actually look like? Let's put a eight.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: up here on the screen.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: I'm going to put every caveat in the sun on
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: this one, but it's always fun to kind of look
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: at some of these races.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: So let's look at here. This is the U.S.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: Senate, South Carolina, Annie Andrews. She's the Democratic opponent to
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: Darlene Graham. And they found in their internal poll, this
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: quote is a tide race that is moving in Dr.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Andrews' direction.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Andrews and Graham began the race tied with the Libertarian
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: capturing a meaningful share of some 5% with 13% remaining undecided.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: And when they, quote, tested positive bios on each candidate
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: after introduction, Andrews takes minus five with an even wider
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: 39-point lead among independents, solidifying her Democratic base and winning
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: over voters. in the middle by large margins. Now, what's
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: the caveat? I remember polls of, what's the guy's name,
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: Jamie Harrison? They're like, oh, single digits.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: The guy raises.
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: 98 million dollars.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Millions of dollars.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: Resistance liberals from across America, their money pours into the coffer,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: And Lindsey Graham wins by the exact same margin that
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: he did in the cycle before. Now, Lindsey Graham knew
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: where Taiwan was. He knew where the South China Sea was.
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: He knew, you know, some stuff about the world. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: think he knew it.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Saying he knew it and had the right conclusion. Obviously,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: don't think it went that way.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: I'd rather go with the ignorance.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe we would prefer the ignorance at a policy level.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: However, it's humiliating because she has no experience. She's openly
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: being like, I'm going to be honest. I'm not a politician.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know stuff like that.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: You're like.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: like you want to be united states it's one thing
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: to fill your brother's term for a few months you
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: want to be a u.s senator for six years i
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: mean this is not a joke of a job and
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: so is she gonna win i would say yeah probably
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: uh but i mean if it comes within a couple
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: of points or if we have that let's say 10th
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: percentile blowout scenario maybe think crazy things can happen doug
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: jones won in alabama right i mean absolute insanity can can.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: Happen If we find out that Darlene's been picking up
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: kids at the mall, which is how Doug Jones won,
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: the Democratic grassroots donors have gotten a lot savvier. If
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: you look at who they give their money to this
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: time around, it's mostly people who have a real shot
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: of winning. Whereas there was this really heady time where
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: Amy McGrath was going to beat Mitch McConnell and people
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: gave something like $ 100 million to her. Because she had
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: a cool ad about being a fighter pilot.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Right. And then Jamie Harrison, because they would.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: Love to be Lindsey Graham.
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: But, you know, she's a pediatrician. Her launch ad, she
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: says she's going to keep your family safe. and she's
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: going to work with Republicans to cut taxes. Doesn't mention
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: she's a Democrat.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Smart. Yeah, smart. I mean, that's what you should do.
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: So she's playing to win.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: I'll show you another, and I'll share some insight that
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: I have here as well. Let's put A9 up here
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: on the screen. I think longtime viewers of the show
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: know I have never been a person who thinks that
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: Texas can go blue. So until yesterday, so I spoke
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: with some people who were close to the process, I'll
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: put it that way. And they described it to me
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: this way. Tallarico and Paxton is a perfect storm scenario
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: where they are watching metro districts and rural districts, specifically
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: strong Republican, with dramatic under-enthusiasm to come out for a vote.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: Number one, because of inflation. Number two, because of data centers, actually.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: So those two issues are keeping traditional Republican constituencies out
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: while you have Tallarico and the Democrats, like I said earlier,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: willing to crawl over broken glass in addition to a
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: lot of independents. And so- Here is an example of
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: what that looks like. So in 2024, they have three
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: districts where they show that Trump won by overwhelming margins,
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: the Texas 15th district, which Trump won by 18. Tallarico
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: is currently beating Paxton there, 50 to 42.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Texas 28, Trump won by 11. Tallarico is beating Paxton
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: by 10 points. Texas 34, Trump won by 11.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: Tallarico is beating Ken Paxton there by 11 points. Now,
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: the thing is for Ken Paxton is he's facing a
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: dramatic budget problem compared to Tallarico, who has raised insane
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: amounts of money. So what I understood is that while
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: Paxton himself is going to try and make up the
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: ground via Ted Cruz and some of the oil men
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: who are always going to give to the campaign, his
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: ultimate goal is to get MAGA Inc.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: To come in on his side. Why?
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: Traditionally, you would rely on the NRSC, the National Republican
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: Senatorial Committee, to come in on your behalf. Now, Ryan,
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: why can they not intervene on behalf of Paxton?
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: Well, they hate him.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: And because they just ran tens.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: Of millions of dollars in ads saying that he's a
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: grifter and that he shouldn't win against John Cornyn. So
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: that's a huge chunk of money, and an institution hates
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: his guts. Mitch McConnell or John Thune hates him too, right?
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: And so the Senate leadership fund the PAC. So he
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: needs Trump to come in and save his ass. Well,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: as many people who have relied on Trump found out,
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Trump doesn't care about you at all. So let's put
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: A5 up here. And this is going to link these
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: two things together.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: This is so good. who, of course, is in charge
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: of MAGA Inc.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: He had a big meeting in the Oval with his
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: enforcers who control nearly $ 1 billion in spending. And this
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: specific one has $ 400 million in their political war chest.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: They got 100 days to go.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: And what does he say? Trump says you are only
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: going to run ads about my record and how amazing
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: I am. So put that in context with what I
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: said about Trump sitting in minus 22, even in the
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: state of Texas. And Trump says that he has completely
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: rejected this idea, this notion during the meeting that it
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: will has notion this meeting that it shouldn't necessarily just
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: be about Trump. One person familiar said, when the issues
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: that you typically campaign on don't move voters or vote
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: are pissed off, the question comes, what do you campaign on?
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: GOP strategists favor focusing entirely on specific races in an
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: effort to convince voters of the merits of individual candidates
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: and local issues. Whereas Trump has rejected that ground and
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: And the president now says that the poor polling reflects
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: the fact that the voting public still does not know
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: many of his accomplishments and the dozens of new stock
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: market highs, a decline in fentanyl debts, the scaled-down southern border,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: and the increase in domestic manufacturing, and has instead ordered
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: his associates to run ads talking about how great his
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: administration is.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Has been.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: And so Paxton doesn't have the money or he doesn't
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: have nearly the amount of money. He doesn't have the
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: traditional campaign staff willing to come in on his side.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: He was already a brutalized candidate coming out of that
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: race with John Cornyn. And he desperately needed Trump to
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: bail him out with ads which were actually focused on
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: the stuff he wants to talk about. He's got an
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: affordability agenda, data centers, Those types of things. Trump literally
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: called out Texas whenever it came to data centers. And
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: by tying Paxton and Abbott directly to Trump, which Trump
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: wants to do because of his own ego and ultimately
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: he controls the money, this is a perfect storm scenario,
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: I actually think. And this is going to apply also
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: to people like Darlene Graham because Graham is the hand-selected,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: You know, candidate by Donald Trump. There's no way she
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: would have won against Ralph Norman if he had not
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: explicitly endorsed her and, you know, had issued all these
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: calls to rallies and all these things. Norman himself, you
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: saw in his press conference, he's like, I don't really
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: know why Trump decided to go into this.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: His wife is pissed off. you know, sitting in the background.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: People are furious about Trump's own intervention, and his money
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: is going to be ultimately, if she's in a tight spot,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: is ultimately the one that's going to have to drag
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: her across. Also wanted to put A10 up here on
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: the screen, just relating to what we were, our interview
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: yesterday with Dan Osborne. I mean, here, this is an
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: independent poll. They have the generic Republican ballot. This is internal.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Oh, sorry. This is an internal poll. Apologies.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: This internal poll has it At 47-47, Osborne and Ricketts,
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: which I know that you mentioned yesterday as well. And
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: this is even their own findings of Republican plus 11
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: on the generic ballot in the state of Nebraska, which,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: by the way, is very low.
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: It should be much higher than that.
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: And you think the generic ballot should be more than
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: plus 11 at this point?
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: In Nebraska?
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's no question. Oh, right, right. Yes.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I see what you mean. Yes, it absolutely should be. So, right.
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: He's... perfect storm is is right because like in nebraska
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: it's it nebraska and texas are both interesting like the
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: only the only way that a democrat or an independent
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: like a osborne could could win in either of those
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: states is for every single thing that is happening now
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: to be happening right like the combination of a bad
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: candidate on the republican side a good candidate on the
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: other side a An economic and political climate that exists
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: as if Trump is actively trying to lose.
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: And so that makes the conditions possible.
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: And then you have these folks who are just good
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: enough and just not offensive enough to enough people to.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Get over the top.
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: It's going to be... I'm with you.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Leave me alone about Texas. Yeah.
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: Democrats are never winning Texas as long as I'm alive.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Until it happens.
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: But if it were ever going to happen, these would
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: be the conditions.
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: If Trump cared... he would do what his advisors had
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: suggested there.
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: Take this $ 400 million, take $ 100 million of it, and
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: spend it in Texas. Don't say a word about Ken
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: Paxton or Donald Trump. Just trash the Democrats. $ 100 million destroying, like, just.
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: Every nasty thing you can think of.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Tallarico trans ad. Tallarico woke ad. Sling mud. Right, yeah.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Just the absolute characters. I mean, it usually works. I
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: live there and wave years. That's all you ever see.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: Instead, you're going to lie and be like, oh, manufacturing
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: is great.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: And talk about the borders closed. People in Texas know
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: what the border is or isn't.
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: They need an ad.
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: Telling them what's going on at the border.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: I also, this is one confounding thing I have been
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: thinking about.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: Is remember, because Texas is uniquely poised, they are reaping
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: some of the economic benefits of Iran. One of the
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: few places where people are actually making money because of
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: the boom.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: So there is actual economic benefit to them because of
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: the Iran situation. That's true.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Not to the rest of us, but there are a
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: lot of oil people who work in Texas. People are
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: printing shit pots of money.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: And so they're shipping LNG and oil to the entire globe, right?
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: So there's money rolling around Houston.
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: They're looking for all capacity that they can find.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Right, exactly. So there's money rolling in Houston. It's boom time.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: And the gas is still under $ 4 a gallon in Texas.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's like $ 3. 80 a gallon.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: So it's just a bit different than the national climate.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: Another one I want to mention was Alaska. So this one, actually,
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: they just finally finished counting all of the votes. So
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: I was looking this morning. Mary Peltola won 49 percent
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: in the open primary.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: So the Democrat won 49 percent. Dan Sullivan won 42.
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: And then the third candidate who also won is also
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: named Dan Sullivan.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: And so, you know, he claims they're trying to like jail.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they're they're like trying to put him in jail
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: for voter fraud. But he won two point five percent
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: of the vote. But even if you presume and Dan Sullivan,
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: I believe, has endorsed Dan Sullivan. So you can work
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: out which one if you want to, even if you
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: combine their their vote share. It's still only 44.5%. She
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: won 49% of the vote. And an additional Democrat on
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: the ballot, David Leslie, won 1.1%, which would actually put
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: Peltola in the 50% mark. Now, remember, all kinds of
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: other crazy things can happen. The libertarian candidates getting 0.4%, 0.5%.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: Did all the potential voters in a general vote? actually
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: come out to vote in the open primary. So I
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: don't want to say anything that it's overwhelming. However, it's
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: enough that Dan Sullivan, yeah, you should be worried, like
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: a little bit worried.
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: And did you see, we did a little segment on
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: Adam Hamilton, the liberal megachurch pastor in Kansas.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: No, I didn't see this.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: He's down by one in a poll there.
• 36:07
  Speaker 6: Oh, no, I did.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I remember because I didn't see the segment, but you
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: sent me the poll and I was like, wow. Wow,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: this is crazy.
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: Right, so, I mean, this is, again, the point of
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: this segment is just to say the ground is laid
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: for crazy stuff absolutely could happen.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: My median case is still.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: you know paxton wins by 0.5 uh something like that
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: uh you know the democratic control of the senate osborne
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: loses by two osborne loses by two democratic control of
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: the senate uh comes down to you know plus or
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: minus one yeah john whatever something like that john fetterman
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: uh because.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: That's his party just usually how these things uh seem
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: to work.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: Out but you know 2008 did happen doug jones did
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: happen there are democrats who can win in all kinds
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: of crazy places if a paradigm of of politics is broken.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: In the same way, 2010 was a genuine revolution with partisanship.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: We could see a reverse of that. And these, you know,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: Democrats who were able to win in GOP plus 33 districts,
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: maybe it will come back. I mean, it always takes,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: you know, just because it's been that way for 16
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: years doesn't mean that it always has to stay that way.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: And so we could be living potentially in an election
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: which will change everything. Just want to prepare everybody for
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: that reality.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: Let's get to AI. Turning now to AI.
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: And so, look, we don't usually pay a ton of
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: attention to what Bill Gates says on the show. If
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: we do, we usually take the opposite.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: But here, maybe we can all decide whether we should
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: take this one seriously.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: Let's put this one up here on the screen. He's
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: now written a 5,784-word essay. I read the entire thing.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: It is a warning on AI. Quote, there is no plan.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Gates issued a stark warning about AI's risk to employment
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: and the human condition, saying that companies were barreling ahead
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: with the technology with no larger plan for the massive
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: upheaval it would cause. Even under the best circumstances, the
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: transition to this new AI era will be one of
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: the most turbulent times in human history.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Right now, we are not preparing for it.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: I don't see any evidence that leaders, experts, and communities
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: are confronting the challenges adequately. Quote, there is no plan
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: to ease the entry into the AI era. calling for
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: more regulation of the technology, that it will hit both
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: white and blue-collar jobs equally, quote, critical thinking is now
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: more important than ever, and that taxes are a part
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: of the solution.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: What do you make of Mr. Gates' essay, Ryan?
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, in general, like, you skim through it, and
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: I didn't even know he has this thing called Gates Notes.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. Actually, I hate to say it about Bill Gates.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: He's got some decent book recommendations sometimes. I usually tune
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: in for his.
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: I believe that.
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: So gates notes.com, check it out. You don't even have
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: to become a premium subscriber.
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: I've been reading those for years. You can just, it's
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: all free.
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: Uh, I mean the, the gist of.
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: It all seems, you know, basically, uh, accurate.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: He's saying what a lot of kind of regular people
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: are saying that this is an extraordinarily revolutionary and scary, uh, technology.
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: And we have no plan for it, that it could, uh,
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: cause a immense amount of harm.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: And we need to think about it.
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: And also that it could, um, produce huge advances in
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: the ways that we treat disease, organize society, that sort
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: of thing. I think everybody kind of agrees with that.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: Rebalance how we tax labor and capital. That clearly has
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: to happen because right now we tax.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Work rather than wealth.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: And if AI is really going to revolutionize the amount
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: of human labor that's being done, that means that that
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: labor will be done basically by capital. And if you're
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: not taxing that, then you no longer have an economy.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: Right. I thought that the craziest thing that he called for, quote,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: human reserve jobs, where he's like, no, we're going to
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: set aside a quota of jobs.
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: Nature preserves.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, nature preserves.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: We're going to set aside this select group of jobs,
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: and these measly humans, you'll be allowed to do that.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: But everything else, we're going to set aside for AI.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: We're going to call it a plantation. Yeah, we're going to.
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: With script currency, just like the Ford rule where we'll
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: get like Ford bucks.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: In the same way.
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: It's crypto that you can spend at the AI store.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll be paid with AI tokens.
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: And so our human reserve job on the farm, AI tokens,
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: we'll each get a quota.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: I've said that. We'll have different amounts of human reserve
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: that we're allowed to do. What's your job going to
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: be on the farm? My job? I'm useless on a farm.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: They're going to kill me.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: I'll be turned into Matrix Soylent Slop for the computers.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: As soon as possible. I think you'll be all right, though. No,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: I hate actual labor.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Gates also said, quote, this is insane. This is crazy.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: I am deafened by the silence. Maybe we should listen
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: in this particular one. But one thing I do want
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: to pick up on is, quote, Gates stressed the risk
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: of cyber attack on the grid, hospitals, banks, fraud, and
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: surveillance will be widespread. AI will enable governments to use
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: deadly force without a human input. I mean, when he
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: says enable, it already happened. It just happened on the
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: battlefield in Ukraine. The first AI powered drone, which chose
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: exactly which humans killed and killed three separate humans.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: We could do cam identification.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: I believe that it had some, you know, actually advanced
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: chips that were enabled within the drone itself.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: So AI is already here on the battlefield.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: It was on the battlefield in Gaza that had, well,
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: battlefield in Gaza, where Israelis use AI powered drones. I
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: believe even Alex Jones at that time called it robotic
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: mass genocide. And one thing I wanted to highlight, for example,
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: is what's happening in terms of the safety measure. So
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: let's put B7 up here on the screen. As I
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: mentioned before, when that hugging face attack occurred, it really
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: sent shockwaves, I think, through the cybersecurity community, through really
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: like everybody else.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: And if we'll recall... OpenAI was testing its model in
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: a closed environment.
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: The model spent all of its... And asked it to
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: answer questions to a test.
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: 1,200 agents.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: So what happened is that OpenAI's model created a bunch
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: of agents whose sole purpose was to break out of
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: the closed environment, jump to the open environment, hack the
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: rival company which had the answers to the test... and
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: thus be able to give answers to the test, because
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: it knew that that was the easiest way for it
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: to do. This was an analysis of the actual technical report,
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: which was released by OpenAI. As Alex Boris writes here,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: basically here's the way it worked. OpenAI is constantly testing
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: their models, thousands and thousands at a time. In most cases,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: the models are supposed to be isolated.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: From one another.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Students taking a final exam.
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: In this case, 1,200 models discovered they could communicate with
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: each other. Among other things, they shared information on how
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: to access the internet on their tests and goals. Then
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: they started to scheme, that included hacking their tests, trying
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: to change the code of the test itself. They tried
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: to change the logs of what they were doing so
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: they wouldn't be detected. They believed that certain actions would
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: give them information on how to pass tests, but doing
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: those actions would be detected and would be marked as failing.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: So they convinced some of the one models to sacrifice themselves,
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: and they even used the word sacrifice in the internal deliberations.
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: They eventually decided another website would have information on how
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: their tests would be scored, And the answer key, 700
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: of them hacked that website, a federal felony if conducted
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: by a human, despite many of them realizing this activity
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: was out of scope and unethical, but joined because they
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: believed that helping the other agents cheating would be broadly
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: useful to themselves. Of the 13 transcripts they could analyze,
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: only six ever considered alerting a human of what was happening.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: None of the six actually tried to.
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: And to make matters worse, all of this reporting comes
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: from a small subset of the relevant logs that outside
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: researchers were even allowed to review. We desperately need, he says,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: to mandatory reporting of security incidents, including of internal deployments
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: with full access to the data. And the reason why
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: I thought that this was obviously so striking is we
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: knew the original report that came out, but we're also
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: watching ChatGPT and others roll out consumer integration with no backstop. So,
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: for example, let's put B3 up here on the screen.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: Check this out, Ryan. ChatGPT now is releasing this and
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: Claude has a similar product. It says ChatGPT work can
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: now use its computer and browser to sign into websites
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: on web and mobile. ChatGPT will never see your username
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: or password. You can ask it to set up utilities
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: for a new apartment, book a DMV passport appointment, check
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: reimbursement costs, find and book an in-network doctor, check when
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: your car registration expires, compare your rental insurance policy. Find
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: and save apartment listings. That criteria. Cancel tickets for a
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: rescheduled trip. Book a vet appointment. Submit reimbursement.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I go on forever.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: Fill out permit applications for your small business. All of this,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: of course, requires sophisticated logins, usernames. And how can we
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: look at what its models did in this testing environment
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: and say, oh yeah, we should immediately integrate this into
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: all of our browsers. And in fact- As a test,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Claude has a similar one, the Chrome extension. So I
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: installed it on my browser, and it literally has a warning.
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: I'm going to uninstall it, but I did it for
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: this segment.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: And in it, it says.
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: malicious hardware can use AI, something along the lines of
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: like malicious websites can use AI for nefarious purposes, authorized instead.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: So they give you the flag that they could be
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: tricked and some of this stuff could be used against you.
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: Right, and crypto is already seeing the effects of this.
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: And if you're following kind of like in the crypto subculture,
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: people are just getting, their lives are just getting laid
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: to waste.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Really? Yeah, as....
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: As their different wallets are getting hacked and people are
• 45:55
  Speaker 5: just losing their shirts because the cybersecurity that we have
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: set up is just no match for the AI that
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: is already existing. And Bill Gates' warning that this is
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: going to get worse, I think, is completely rational.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: We're not set up to.
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: Certainly.
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: 99% of people are not set up for it, who
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: just reuse passwords, don't have two-factor. Then when it comes
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: to using two-factor, if you're using the mobile number, that's
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: just a spoofed phone number away from.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: That getting hacked. Yes.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: If you're using an authenticator, you're a little bit better.
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: But if you're... Depending on what you're allowing into your system,
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: and especially.
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: If you've got 1,200 agents.
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: Or an infinite number, practically, trying to get through. And
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: there are so many weak spots in our financial system, like,
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: you know, a regional bank's IT department up against this is, like,
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: what are we going to do when North Korea owns
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: the entire world's wealth?
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: Because there they had some.
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: Agents go around the world and just scoop up everybody's
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: bank accounts and suck them back into North Korea. Fraud
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: is an element of our kind of political economy that
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: gets weaponized for political purposes, but we just have never
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: taken it seriously. We're at a place where AI could
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: go the other direction. Like we could you be using
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: AI to detect fraud. Um, and, and, and there are
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: people who are doing this now because like you can just,
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: you know, unleash it on South Florida and be like, uh,
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: that's not a dentist's office.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: They're not selling wheelchairs.
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: Like clearly the patterns that we're seeing here do not
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: reflect actual real commercial activity.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Boom, go get them.
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: Um, Instead, it's mostly going to be deployed in the
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: other direction by the people that are selling fake wheelchairs.
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: And it's because of no– and just to show you
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: how megalomaniac these people are. For example, let's put B2
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen. Anthropic is– they're seeking their IPO.
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: And so– They have to release to investors. Yeah, because
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: they're going to steal everything. What's your total addressable market?
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: And Anthropic tells investors it sees over $ 30 trillion in
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: potential revenue.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: And so what is going to rob the Federal Reserve? Right.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: I was like, OK, so let's put this into perspective.
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: What is the total GDP of the United States? Like
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: 32 total GDP of the United States is 32 trillion dollars.
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: And so Anthropic is basically like our total addressable market
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: is the entire economy of the United States of America.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: The world's most powerful empire that the world has ever seen.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: And this tops even SpaceX 28.5 estimate of their total
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: addressable market. I mean, you could laugh at it, but
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: maybe we should take it at least somewhat seriously. To
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: quantify its total addressable market, Anthropic is looking at the
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: full scope of work that could be completed with AI models.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: And they decided to factor in basically all kinds of automation,
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: white collar work, all work. And so, yeah, I guess
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: if GDP is the quantification of all of our production
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: in the economy, Anthropic is like, yeah, we can do
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: literally all of that.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing. To channel my inner Ed Zitrone,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: it's not bullshit. They could be lying. It's all a
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: rug pull scam.
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: It's just to keep the financial flow going so they
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: have their exit liquidity whenever it comes to their IPO.
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: But like with the Gates essay and especially with the
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: technical details, I just feel that we have no choice
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: but to take it somewhat seriously after they're going to
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: release this stuff. And in particular when Gates– I mean
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: when the AI leaders– because he's just the latest of
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: the major oligarchs to just come out and be like, man,
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: this is a real problem. And it's not like he
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: doesn't have hundreds of billions of dollars himself at stake
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: whenever it comes to Microsoft.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: And so, according to them, economic growth is about to
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: be accelerated into a superhuman pace.
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: Dean Ball, you can put up this next element, who's
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: an OpenAI.
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: Official, says, so, yes, we're going to have, like, explosive
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: growth that's going to reshape the way that the world operates.
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: But we need to stop paying old people their Social
• 50:46
  Speaker 5: Security checks immediately.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 50:49
  Speaker 5: We're going to spend the last 30 years telling you
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: that we're going to wipe out labor and replace it
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: with UBI. But actually, the already existing UBI needs to go.
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: So Dean Ball writes, the main thing I have to
• 51:03
  Speaker 5: say to the young generation of Americans is that your
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: grandparents and great-grandparents committed a kind of accounting fraud when
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: they ran our country a century ago with Social Security.
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: Open AI talking about accounting fraud is the funniest thing
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: I've ever heard.
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: First of all, it's a nonprofit.
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: That started as a nonprofit and then threw a bunch
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: of accounting fraud, washed money into it, and then converted
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: to a for-profit, and now is using enormous amounts of
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: financial engineering where they just swap money back and forth
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: between their vendors and call it revenue. So for them
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: to call Social Security accounting fraud is utterly ridiculous. And
• 51:44
  Speaker 5: this claim that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme is,
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: People don't understand what a Ponzi scheme is, if that's
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: what it is. We tax people, and then we give
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: that money to other people.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: It's not accounting fraud.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: Well, what pisses me off about the accounting fraud thing,
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: this is accounting fraud. I'm like, okay, I mean, it
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: is technically true that the people, the vast majority of
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: recipients of Social Security take out more than they ever
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: paid into the system. That is empirically true. People live longer.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: There is, however, currently a cap on earnings with it.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, well, you could fix the accounting product, actually,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: if you want.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: People like OpenAI and others, we could just lift the
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: cap on your W-2 income.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: Dean Ball probably paid his Social Security taxes by January 2nd.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Right. Exactly. And so, yeah. We could just make him
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: pay social security taxes all year long. You could pay
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: maybe until January 15th. Yeah, pay two weeks of it. Yeah,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: two weeks of it.
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: But that's my point is they're like, oh, it's accounting fraud.
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: I'm like, well, you could make it not accounting fraud
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: if you wanted to. And I'm not even– and to
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: borrow your earlier point about taxing labor specifically because that's
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: kind of the way FICA has.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Always been implemented. It doesn't always have to be that way.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: It was just implemented that way because of the way
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: people made money at that time and things have dramatically changed.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: As of now.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: So you do love how they never potentially mention that one. And,
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: you know, look, I got all kinds of beef with
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: old people, but it is true that they did. They
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: did pay into the system now, not as much as
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: they're receiving in benefits.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: And it's not like.
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: They wouldn't happily raise our taxes to pay for them.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: I'm saying no.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: That if my taxes are going to go up, your
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: taxes need to go up too, which is a fair trade.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: It's a fair trade, all right?
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: And so anyway, that's the political instincts of our AI overlords.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Let's get to Meta.
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: Turning now to Meta, huge landmark settlement happening with multiple states'
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: attorneys generals.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: We'll put it up here on the screen.
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: Meta has now reached an $ 18 billion settlement with 48
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: states over child safety claims. They have agreed to pay
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: various of the state's attorneys generals and reach part of
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: the settlement.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: It is a unique setup.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: They will pay only 70 percent of the settlement unless
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: TikTok and YouTube also agree to set default.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Limits. However, Ryan, I'll turn it over to you.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: The money is not the big change, again, like the
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: big tobacco settlements of older days. They have agreed to
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: dramatically change its own business practices whenever it comes to children.
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so they're saying time limits, I think two hours.
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: Default blocks from the app at night muted notifications during
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: school hours and then new controls for parents. They also
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: are putting a lot of pressure on their kind of rivals,
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: TikTok and YouTube, to do the same thing. And so
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: the pushback that you've gotten from this from kind of
• 54:42
  Speaker 5: free speech advocates has been similar to other pro arguments
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: against prohibition that it's going to push kids. This will
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: be fun. I'm curious to hear what you say. It's
• 54:53
  Speaker 5: going to push kids to discord. It's going to push
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: kids deeper into the dark web. It's going to push
• 55:00
  Speaker 5: kids to, um, fake their ages, you know, use their,
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: maybe a parent's account or some other old, or they're just,
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: I'm just type in that they're older somehow.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: Um, or push them over to Tik TOK, YouTube, whatever. Um,
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: I think they probably will do some of those things.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Some of those things will happen. Yes.
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: I still believe.
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: That the compromise that we should have made with TikTok
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: should have been like, look, we're going to let China.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Hold on to TikTok.
• 55:31
  Speaker 6: OK.
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: But the trade will be Chairman Xi regulates the Internet
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: for our children.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: And none of this two hours.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I will say China's Internet is much better regulated than
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: ours in terms of screen time limits for kids and
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: their algorithm. They directly intervene in none of this two
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: hours a day.
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: See, Ryan, she gives you one hour on Friday. She
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: gives you one hour on Saturday.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: And that's it.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: You're speaking my language, man.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: But then you're out here wanting people to just let
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: them do as many drugs as possible.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't comport. It doesn't comport. When you're 21. Oh, God.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Adults versus children. This is actually what I wanted to
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: talk about.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: Let's put C2 up here on the screen just to
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: further go through.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: This is from Meta's own announcement.
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: A daily two-hour time limit a day that teens can
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: only turn off with a parent's permission. Night mode, a
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: default block from apps between midnight and 6 a.m., School mode,
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: notifications will be muted between 8 a.m.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: And 3 p.m.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: Regular prompts, every 15 minutes of continuous screen time, they
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: will receive prompts when their total daily usage hits 60
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: or 90 minutes. Algorithmic feed control, teens will be able
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: to choose a non-algorithmic feed, one that is not personalized
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: by our recommendation systems as their default. We will periodically
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: remind them of this option and choose to adjust their
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: teen's default experience. Autoplay control, teens will be able to
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: turn off autoplay hidden likes, they will not see the
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: number of likes or reactions on posts, both their own
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: and those from others. By default, disabling cosmetic surgery and
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: extreme makeup filters, age assurance, which is to remove underage accounts,
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: age-appropriate content restrictions, unwanted contact from strangers, reported and ongoing
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: protection from harmful content, and strengthening parental control.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: Here is my bigger question.
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: Is there any good argument that none of this should
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: be made for the entire population?
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: You're talking about cheap.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: No, I didn't say that. I didn't say that at all.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: By the way, I'm talking about costing myself a significant.
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: Sum of money.
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: The best argument I think would be, so in here
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: they say they need app stores and developers to work
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: collaboratively with them so that they have more identification capacity.
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: That blows up the anonymity. that the internet relies on
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: or that people rely on.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: What anonymity do we have?
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: Whatever it's called, the IMEU is linked directly to your account.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Apple knows everything about it.
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: I'm just saying the argument is that it would be
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: nice to be anonymous in this world.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: But there's no such thing as actual anonymity.
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: And if you're saying that that's not possible anymore, then
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: we should shut the internet down.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm saying.
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: Is there any reason that we shouldn't have a default
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: to our daily limit on everyone's phone whenever it comes
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: to social media?
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: Is there any reason that we shouldn't have that? Also,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: I love this. Your ability to opt out of an
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: algorithmic feed. Why can't I opt out of an algorithmic feed?
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: That's true. I want to opt out. Maybe I should
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: sign up for a teen account.
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: These are.
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: But, okay, to be serious for a second, and more
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: to ask a provocative, and also, yeah, disabling cosmetic surgery
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: and extreme makeup filters, why shouldn't we ban those for adults, right?
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry.
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: This is where people are like, oh, it has dramatically
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: warped female body image. I mean, look at this whole
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: Ariana Grande situation.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: It's sickening.
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: This woman is suffering from extreme anorexia. Nobody's even doing
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: anything about it, right? It's like, you know, not to
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: forget about my 1990s, you know, horse or whatever, but
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: I'm like, guys, this is craziness.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Like, we have to be able to do something about this.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: And it obviously was encouraged by social media and other, like,
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: general sickness issues. Surrounding fame autoplay control teens will be
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: able to turn off autoplay No, the default should be
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: for everyone that autoplay goes off.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: I was reading, and again, we're talking against our own
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: interests here. So I'm saying that I want this for people.
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: We're talking against our book.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: I don't care. I care about people.
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: In terms of screen addiction, average screen time in the
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: US is like several hours per day. If you add
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: in television, I mean, it's like half the day that
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: you're awake. People are looking at some sort of a screen. Obviously,
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: TV is very different than... social media but whenever I
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: look at these things if we presume social media is
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: dramatically harmful for children which is now admitted in court
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: by meta as part of this because ultimately they were
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: facing a massive judgment whenever it came to a jury trial.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: And in 48 states, we're very likely to prevail. Can
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: we then also presume that it's gonna be maybe not
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: equally harmful whenever we're talking about a developing brain, but
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: for adults, I'm like, why isn't it also very harmful
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: in the same way that cigarettes or alcohol are?
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: So what I think we would need to do, to
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: your point, if we're going to have algorithms that are
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: shaping how we understand the world and we believe in democracy,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: then we need to be able to vote on the
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: boards that oversee these algorithms and let people campaign. Let
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 5: Marjorie Taylor Greene say that this is how we ought
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: to regulate it. Let AOC say this is how we
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: ought to do it. And people can then weigh in
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: and elect people to these boards who are then Shaping
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: just like, you know, we used to have a fairness
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: doctrine because we believed that the FCC should make sure that,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: you know, people are fairly getting, you know, some type
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: of civic education.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Just do that.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: And then everybody can make their case.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: At the very least, they should have to, I have
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: always argued this, they should have to publish these algorithms.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: They say that they're proprietary. I'm like, look, you have
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: too much influence and too much shaping of how people
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: understand reality. At the very least, you should publish how
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: and what you decide to rank. Also, I mean, everything,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: and this is where regulation should have to come in,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: because the reason why autoplay is on, I actually read
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: this from a former Netflix engineer. You know, when you're
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: watching on Netflix, they originally thought that autoplay should take
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: 10 to 15 seconds because they said people are going
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: to want to sit and digest what they just watched.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: But the default is five seconds, which obviously they have
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: rigorous testing.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: Why do they do it? Because if it automatically autoplays,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: you're much more likely to sit there and not get
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: up and leave.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: Go watch another one. Good for Netflix. Definitely good for Netflix.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: Good for society. Same with YouTube. Again, look. I can
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: take a look at our suggested videos.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: I know how many of you are probably watching this
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: video based on suggested video. But, and again, this is
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: where it's the hijacking of the algorithm with the dopamine
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: of automatically playing of suggested. These things are dramatically useful
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: for creators and for watch time, but are they good
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: for society as a whole? What are the other types
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: of things you might be doing if you weren't sitting
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: there just slaving away on your phone? And I mean,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: I just think this is too important. And especially you
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: have four children. My child is very, very young. I mean,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: I've got to hide my phone. Like it's crazy how
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: early on they immediately identify the phone as obviously something
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: that I'm looking at. So it is noteworthy of their
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: own attention, but also of, oh, it lights up and
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: it's interesting.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: It's just like it's such a young age. I'm talking six,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: seven months on. I was like, wow. Yeah.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: And to see that, I mean, that was great. One
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: of the great wake up calls of my life, because
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, I'm I have the same thing. I
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: just I'm not observing myself. Third party body. Again, I
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: think that this is still a very landmark moment in
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: the history of social media. It is the most robust
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: regulation that will now be put in place for children.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: But it is still in the most American way possible.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: And I borrow this from Matt Stoller, is this is
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: a modest compromise. In Australia, they just ban social media
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: for kids under the age of 16. And to your point,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: are there a ton of Australian kids who are using it?
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: But we definitely know for sure that, first of all,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: the legislature democratically agreed and that it has pushed usage
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: time overall down for the Australian population.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Under 16 population.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: And the fact is parents cannot fight this battle alone.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 6: Exactly.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: We will lose this battle. Florida, meanwhile, is going to
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: fight it alone. Did you see this?
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: I did. Yeah, we have that element.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 5: Put up C4. Florida did not join it. They think
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: it's piddly, they say, and they're going to take.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: It to court. Okay.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: Let's see. See what happens here.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: Well, that's what's part of interesting. So I use the
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: big tobacco example. But this really is unique because they're
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: still under a ton of lawsuits as well as TikTok
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: and YouTube. And they still may have to go to
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: trial whenever it comes to the Florida judgment. And this
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: does not actually stop or govern like a total architecture.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: And that's kind of why I wanted to use this
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: jumping off point as this is why I think that
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: we need like actual regulation or a real small D
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: democratic debate. Both around, I mean, both of these blocks
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: we just did. The AI one I looked at, somebody
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: was talking about this who's a policy advocate here in Washington.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: And she was like, guys, the amount of technical expertise
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: you need to even read this document from OpenAI is immense.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: Nobody in Congress, what, Chuck Grassley's going to tell me
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: about Hugging Face?
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: No, he's going to rely on experts.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: We have no technical experts that are even remotely capable
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: of doing this currently in the United States Congress. And
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: even they may not agree. So you need a board
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: of those people to be able to then tell the
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: Congress what to do. Otherwise, we're left entirely to open
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: AI to voluntarily hold up their hand and just be like, yeah,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: here's what happened, you know, within our models. And we're
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: only going to tell you everything that we think. We're
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: only going to tell you what we think whenever it's beneficial.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: To us or our marketing purposes.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: Oh, Metastock popped up. By the way, on the news,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: $ 18 billion payout.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: That's nothing.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: Their stock went up. They're up 5% over the week.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, think about it.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: $ 17 billion, they spend that in like a month on
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: a new data center. Their CapEx is like near the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: trillion dollar mark as opposed to the multi-billion dollar mark.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: And the top line won't be what they actually pay out.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Of course not.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: A lot of it's in-kind, this and that.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: Right. The reality of it is that the money didn't matter.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: The changes are what's going to matter.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: It also, I just want to flag as well. Remember
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: for years, they said, we do all these things for
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: teens already to restrict. And it's like, well, you could
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: have done this all in the first place and then
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: you wouldn't, you wouldn't have had to do any of it,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: except that would have marginally hurt your bottom line. There's
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: plenty enough of adults who are addicted to your products.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: So don't worry about it.