Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 164 - 11/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 164 - 11/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 164 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
• 0:38
  end. The weekend is upon us and I
• 0:40
  would argue a massive weekend ahead here.
• 0:42
  Guys. We got a ton to talk about on
• 0:45
  the last part of the week here today on a big Friday.
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  I'm looking at for today a six pack of sweats that I'm excited
• 0:51
  to share with you, including a couple college football plays.
• 0:54
  We got a real sharp dog to fave line move that I'm going to
• 0:57
  money line. We also have a total that I'm
• 0:59
  going to target here. It's a very windy under system
• 1:02
  match. Then going to look in college
• 1:04
  basketball, going to continue to look toward our experiment,
• 1:07
  looking at totals that go way up and then we can sell high and
• 1:10
  take the under. So we got three of those for
• 1:12
  you. Also have an NBA bet that I'm
• 1:14
  excited to talk about. This is a team that you probably
• 1:16
  think is terrible and they're not great, but they're better
• 1:19
  than last year and they're taking in a lot of respect and
• 1:21
  money here today. So 6 pack overall, 2 in college
• 1:24
  football, 3 in college hoops, one in the NBA and then we'll
• 1:28
  unveil our final best bet card for this weekend, including five
• 1:32
  NFL best bets for you, including some really interesting sharp
• 1:36
  fade. The trendy dog moves 4IN college
• 1:38
  football and then one play in biting in the UFC where we have
• 1:43
  a massive youth advantage as well as a cherry on top for my
• 1:46
  buddy Gamble and Lou who is one of my mentors in the UFCI.
• 1:50
  Every Friday I kind of hone it down to like 3 or 4 bets that
• 1:53
  catch my eye based on the bet splits.
• 1:55
  Then IDM my buddy gamble and Lou Lou Finocaro who's the best in
• 1:58
  the game when it comes to betting UFC and he'll tell me oh
• 2:02
  I like this, I don't like that. But one of them in particular he
• 2:04
  really liked and that was the one that I really liked.
• 2:06
  So let's see if we can get a winner here this weekend in the
• 2:09
  UFC and the Octagon and biting as you like to call it.
• 2:13
  Now before we dive into the sweats for tonight guys and
• 2:15
  unveil our card for this weekend, how about a little golf
• 2:18
  clap for a big bounce back night after a horrific night a couple
• 2:23
  nights ago, A1 in six night. Wouldn't you know it, we busted
• 2:26
  out the brooms and bounced back in huge fashion. 5 and O + 4.62
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  units. Great Thursday Night Football
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  game. Eagles getting the under there
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  under 49 1/2. Some books got down to 49 just
• 2:38
  like we wanted, but that was that.
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  Prime time under with a very high total.
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  Got a little dicey there at the end, but we were pretty much on
• 2:44
  the rocking chair throughout the game.
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  Got Kenneth Gainwell over 14 1/2 rushing yards.
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  He only had one carry for 9 yards in the first half.
• 2:51
  I'm like, this guy's giving you 9 yards a quick give him some
• 2:54
  more carries. Luckily late he had a couple
• 2:56
  good runs to give us the over and again shout out to our
• 2:59
  friends at Rhythm who helped us catch that bet.
• 3:01
  Then our college basketball experiment.
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  After a couple nights where our obscure line move money lines
• 3:07
  didn't come through for us, we said, hey, let's look towards
• 3:09
  some of these sell high totals. And wouldn't you know it, we
• 3:11
  swept the board. Pacific under 154 1/2, Cal Poly
• 3:15
  under 152 1/2, now SIU, Oklahoma State.
• 3:18
  I hope, I hope, I hope, I hope you got the hook on the under
• 3:22
  163 1/2 because this goes to show you how important it is to
• 3:25
  shop for the best line. That game landed on 163, so
• 3:28
  hopefully you got the 163 1/2 and you won.
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  That was a play that we talked about on the pod getting the
• 3:34
  hook on the 163 and a half 163 a push.
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  If you had a late 162 1/2, unfortunately you you lost by a
• 3:40
  point, but I'm going to grade that as a win because at the
• 3:42
  time it was under 163 1/2. So you love to see it when you
• 3:46
  have a bad night, you don't get frustrated, you don't flip out,
• 3:50
  you don't start to chase, you don't say screw it.
• 3:52
  I'm either going to lay off or bet a million games and get back
• 3:54
  to the green. Stick to the model, stick to the
• 3:56
  blueprint. Never too high, never too low,
• 3:58
  whatever. As bad as we think we when we go
• 4:00
  1:00 and 6:00, never as good as we think when we go 5 and O, but
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  the whole point being is stick with it, keep grinding and
• 4:07
  that's sports betting. For those of you who've been
• 4:09
  betting for quite a while like I have, that's going to happen.
• 4:11
  You're gonna have great nights and bad nights.
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  Sometimes it's really volatile where they come back-to-back.
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  But overall, you just got to stick with it, not get too high
• 4:18
  or too low and was great to see us bounce back with a 5 and O +
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  4.62 unit night. Now, before we dive in our
• 4:24
  sweats here for tonight, I wanted to mention one kind of
• 4:27
  piece of news here, kind of a big announcement.
• 4:29
  Now you might have seen me tweet this a little bit earlier today
• 4:32
  or a few days ago, but I am working with Juice Reel, who
• 4:36
  does a great job of helping us to power this podcast.
• 4:39
  And there's a feature in Juice Reel where you can post your
• 4:42
  best bets and then other people can follow you.
• 4:45
  And I was talking to my buddy Ricky Gold, and he said, you
• 4:48
  know what, we need to get your ASG podcast plays on the social
• 4:51
  tab. So I agreed, we set it up and
• 4:54
  now we're up and running. So now from now on, you can get
• 4:57
  every single all systems go best bet on the social tab of the
• 5:01
  juicer app. You just click social in the
• 5:03
  bottom right. You can search the display name.
• 5:06
  It's public display name, ASG under score podcast.
• 5:10
  Also, I'm going to put this link I tweeted out earlier.
• 5:13
  If you want to click that link, it's a custom link.
• 5:14
  It'll take you right to the ASG best bet best bets page.
• 5:18
  I'm also going to put it in the description bio description of
• 5:21
  each pod moving forward. Now whole point thing whole
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  point being here is it is 499 a week, not 499 dollars, 499 five
• 5:30
  bucks a week. You can look at it this one of
• 5:32
  two ways. I don't want to look at this as
• 5:34
  me being a tout and selling place to you.
• 5:37
  I've never liked that. I think it's shady.
• 5:39
  I'm not a fan of that. I would look at this more of
• 5:42
  supporting the podcast again. I make the joke of when my wife
• 5:46
  wants a a coffee from Starbucks, it cost like $7.00.
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  So are you willing to pay 499 a week to get every best bet pick
• 5:54
  from the All Systems Go podcast. You are supporting the pod.
• 5:58
  You can look at it that way. Your 499 is maybe a tip for
• 6:01
  maybe some hopefully some good insights that I provide.
• 6:05
  So support the pod or you can look at it this way.
• 6:07
  I'm going to post these plays a little bit earlier in the day.
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  So it takes me a little bit to produce the pod to record it to
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  get it out there. Sometimes numbers move.
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  Perfect example was SIU Oklahoma State 163 1/2.
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  It did fall a little bit later tells me we got the good number,
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  but it's a little benefit. Cherry on top is if you follow
• 6:27
  the all systems go best bets on juice Reel, you're hopefully
• 6:31
  going to get them earlier in the day.
• 6:33
  Like you'll get some plays that I'll put in, you know, a couple
• 6:35
  hours before the pod, hopefully get some good numbers, hopefully
• 6:38
  help you to win. So think of paying the 499 a
• 6:41
  week to get these plays. You're supporting the pod,
• 6:44
  you're maybe giving me a tip because you think I'm a good,
• 6:46
  I'm a good server. I provided you a good meal, I
• 6:48
  refilled your drinks, helped you win some bets or look at it as a
• 6:52
  little advantage. You're going to get these plays
• 6:54
  a little bit earlier in the day, hopefully getting better
• 6:56
  numbers. So I just wanted to mention
• 6:57
  that, but I'm really excited in terms of just being transparent
• 7:01
  with the plays and their performance, but also getting
• 7:03
  them out to you quicker, helping Juice Real grow and really help
• 7:06
  people figure out this feature because I think it's really cool
• 7:08
  and it's not just me doing it. You can put your place up there.
• 7:11
  You start to have a good record. People want to follow your
• 7:13
  place. You can put them out there and
• 7:16
  kind of sell them as if you want as well.
• 7:19
  Now you can pick your number. I picked 499 because I don't
• 7:22
  want to ask a ton of you guys and I want it to be just kind of
• 7:25
  an easy thing, You know, you got 5 bucks hanging around, look in
• 7:28
  the sofa cushions, boom, there you go.
• 7:30
  But if you think you're really good, you could charge 25 bucks
• 7:33
  a week. You could put whatever number
• 7:34
  you want, but I wanted to just make that announcement because
• 7:36
  moving forward, I'm going to be telling you guys, hey, you
• 7:39
  missed the pod or you can't make it.
• 7:41
  You just want the bats. Boom.
• 7:42
  You can go right to the Juice Reel Social page and follow the
• 7:45
  plays right there on the all systems go Juice Reel Social
• 7:49
  tab. So that being said, enough
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  housekeeping. Let's get right down to our
• 7:54
  plays here for tonight, guys. So I want to start off with a
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  little bit of college football couple games.
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  You're caught my eye tonight. There's four games overall, but
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  two in particular I had my interest.
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  So let's start off with the first one here, Wyoming and
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  Colorado State. Now this one going in this one
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  we have Wyoming 8:00 game tonight, 2:00 and 7:00 just
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  snapped A3 game losing skid with a big 4945 win over New Mexico,
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  winning outright as an 8 point Rd. dog.
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  Meanwhile, Colorado State six and three they've won four
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  straight just took down Nevada 3821 easily covering as a 2
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  point Rd. favorite. So what do we see across the
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  market here? Well, this game opened with
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  Colorado State listed around a 10 1/2 point home favorite, and
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  the public says we got a two and seven Wyoming team, A six and
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  three Colorado team that's at home lay the points.
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  However, despite 68% of bets laying the points with the Rams,
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  this line's fallen -10 1/2 down to 9 1/2.
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  I see even one book at 9 or even 8 1/2.
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  So this line is going to Wyoming.
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  So if you like Wyoming, that would be my lean here.
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  My bet is on the total, but Wyoming looks pretty
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  interesting. 32% bets, 45% money Friday Rd. dogs are 16 and six
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  ATS this year, 73%. So again, you have a pretty
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  sharp move to Wyoming. I probably should play Wyoming,
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  but I didn't because I like the total more.
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  So I'll root for anyone who's playing Wyoming.
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  They look like the sharp side here tonight, but I'm gonna play
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  the under This total opened at around 46 1/2.
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  It got as high as 48 1/2. Now it's come back down to 46
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  1/2. I posted this to the Juice Reel
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  best bets page for all system go at under 46 1/2.
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  Now I'm seeing some shops get down to 4645 1/2.
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  So definitely try to shop around.
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  But again, another reason why if you want to follow these plays
• 9:38
  on Juice Reel, you'll get the better number.
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  So I'm on the under 46 1/2. If you're playing it now 46 or
• 9:43
  even 45 1/2. But here's what you might like.
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  Even though it's starting to fall, this is a sharp play
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  because the public's playing the over 76% of bets, yet we're
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  seeing this total drop. And of course, that's important
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  because the line is falling even though the public is playing the
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  over. And why is it a sharp under?
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  Well, this is a really good weather play a windy under
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  system match in Colorado tonight.
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  It's going to be cold, mid 30s, fifteen mile per hour winds
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  gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. That makes it a windy under
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  system match. When it's windy out 10 mph or
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  more, the unders around 55% The last decade, it's harder to kick
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  the ball, it's harder to throw it.
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  You're going to run it more, chew up the clock.
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  Also, Colorado State, one of the slowest teams in the country.
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  They rank 120th out of 134 teams in terms of pace.
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  And did you know that Rhythm has a good edge on the under?
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  They're predicting 43.6 points, so hopefully you got the under
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  46 1/2. I wrote about it for the Sharp
• 10:41
  report for visen.com, which you can always check out around noon
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  or 1:00 every day, which I'll tweet out at Josh under score
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  Insights. But I'm on under 46 1/2.
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  You can now play under 4645 1/2, but a windy under system match.
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  I'm leaning Wyoming, but my only bet there is the under under 46
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  1/2. Next one for you, North Texas
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  and UTSA 8:00 as well. North Texas comes in five and
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  four. However, they have lost three
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  straight. Just lost to Army 14 to 3 didn't
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  cover as a 2 1/2 point home dog. Meanwhile, UTSA 4:00 and 5:00,
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  but they've won two of their last three.
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  Just took down Memphis 44 to 36. They won outright as a 7 point
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  home dog. What have we seen across the
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  market here? Well, this is one of our
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  favorite angles. Dog to fave baby this game open
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  North Texas on the road laying 1 1/2.
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  Now we flipped to UTSA at home -1 1/2 and they're juiced up
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  like they may even go to -2 I see one book at -2.
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  So I love the fact that this line flipped dog to fave UTSA.
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  But I like it even more because the public is on North Texas.
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  North Texas is getting 66% of bets.
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  Yet the line flipped to UTSA. So we have a reverse line move
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  dog to fave contrarian and heavily bet game.
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  We also have UTSA with a good rest first tired advantage.
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  UTSA is coming off a buy, so they're rested, ready to go
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  versus North Texas, who had to play a physical Army team on
• 12:01
  Saturday. Good correlative betting here.
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  Totals very high, 72 1/2. And that means with a short
• 12:08
  favorite like UTSA, more expected points scored.
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  Easier to cover that small number with more points
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  expected. Now.
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  I went money line with UTSAI, got UTSA on the money line at
• 12:18
  -125 they got a pretty good bet. Split 44% bets but 60% dollars
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  on the money line. And I'll just mention with the
• 12:25
  total, it's really high, 72 1/2. Like that's one of the higher
• 12:28
  totals I've seen this year. It seems like it's got to go
• 12:31
  under because it's so high. I didn't play the over, but the
• 12:35
  over kind of looks sharp because the public is on the under.
• 12:37
  They say it's too high, 70. What is it?
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  72% of bets are on the under, But the total rose 71 1/2 to 72
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  1/2. This is in a Dome, the
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  Alamodome, so fast track. UTSA is the fastest team in the
• 12:50
  country, first overall in pace. North Texas is 25th.
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  I'm not playing the total, but if your automatic thought is,
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  hey, it's so high, go under. Maybe it will go under, but it
• 12:59
  did rise and it looks like a contrarian over.
• 13:02
  So if you tell me like the over, I'd lean over more than I would
• 13:04
  under, but I'm going to go with UTSA dog to fave on the money
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  line. Let's go Texas, San Antonio.
• 13:12
  I got him on the money line at -125.
• 13:15
  Next up, let's continue our experiment because we were three
• 13:19
  and O again, I hope you got that hook in Oklahoma State.
• 13:22
  Siui know my buddy Da Roush unfortunately got the 162 1/2.
• 13:25
  So that one's tough, but let's get right back to it.
• 13:28
  I say if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
• 13:30
  So I have for you a few more of these.
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  Buy low, or should I say sell high underplays.
• 13:37
  So remember, thought process here is when we see a huge move
• 13:40
  and a total rises way up. Let's look at the rhythm
• 13:43
  projection, the Ken Palm projection, and if we have a
• 13:45
  good cushion, let's sell high and take the under.
• 13:48
  So the first one that jumped out to me, William and Mary and
• 13:50
  Winthrop. Now this is a 5:00 game.
• 13:54
  It is an added game, extra game. So this is game let's see three
• 13:58
  O 662-530-6626. But I noticed a big move to the
• 14:03
  over in this one. So this Winthrop total, it
• 14:07
  opened at around what was it at 1:52.
• 14:12
  It's now been bet up all the way to 160, 159 1/2.
• 14:17
  So this thing is really, really risen here.
• 14:20
  So it tells us on the one hand there was a lot of of over money
• 14:23
  that came in, but now if you're playing over 159 and a half 160,
• 14:27
  you're getting the worst of it. So let's think about selling
• 14:30
  high. I'm going to sell high.
• 14:32
  I'm going to go under. Now you might find a 160 doesn't
• 14:35
  look like that's very widely available anymore.
• 14:37
  So 159 1/2 looks like your best price, but it opened 152.
• 14:43
  It's up to 159 1/2 again. If early Sharp played over
• 14:46
  1525354, Let's say this lands 5657.
• 14:51
  They win. We lose because we're late to
• 14:53
  the party and bet a bad over 159 half.
• 14:55
  Now it may sail over. I hope not, but this is what I'm
• 14:58
  liking about selling. High Rhythm has 2 predictions
• 15:01
  for me. One is a 156, another is a
• 15:04
  155.5. Ken Palm our guy has a 151.
• 15:10
  So Ken Palm really likes this under.
• 15:12
  So if Ken Palms got a 151 rhythms, got a one 55156 and
• 15:17
  we're able to get under 159 1/2 sell high, I'm going to make
• 15:21
  that bet. So give me William and Mary
• 15:23
  Winthrop under a sell high under 159 1/2.
• 15:28
  Next one for you because we got a three pack.
• 15:31
  This one is very high. Let's talk about Washington
• 15:33
  State and Iowa. Now this one's interesting for a
• 15:36
  couple reasons. One is it's the most heavily
• 15:39
  back game of the night or one of the most heavily back games of
• 15:41
  the night. And if you look at what we've
• 15:44
  seen with the total, it's definitely gone up here.
• 15:48
  It opened at some shops around one.
• 15:52
  What was it? I want to say it was 167 1/2 was
• 15:56
  probably your most common opener.
• 15:58
  It's now been about up to 171 1/2.
• 16:01
  So what's that? A four point move to the over
• 16:04
  now what I like about this one and again, shop around.
• 16:07
  I'm looking at my latest numbers here, but you should be able to
• 16:09
  get 171 1/2. That's pretty widely available.
• 16:13
  Caesar's FanDuel, ESPN bet. So 171 1/2 under, That's my bet.
• 16:19
  But on the one hand, it's a neutral court.
• 16:21
  So neutral court unders always like that.
• 16:24
  Don't know the familiarity of the court, the backboard, the
• 16:27
  sight lines. So always like neutral court
• 16:29
  unders. But we pop open rhythm.
• 16:31
  Rhythm has a 168.3 and a 167.6. Ken Palm has a 166, so Rhythm
• 16:40
  and Ken Palm are around 166 one 67168.
• 16:45
  We're able to get under 171 1/2. So that looks like some value
• 16:48
  there to go under. Also, it's a very heavily back
• 16:51
  game. Public's hammering the over yet
• 16:54
  we're starting to get some good value here to go the other way.
• 16:57
  So I'm going to go Washington State, Iowa under 171 1/2.
• 17:02
  Last one for you, Liu and Cal Baptist.
• 17:06
  I don't know why, but I'm playing another Cal Baptist
• 17:08
  game. Luckily, it's not a play on Cal
• 17:10
  Baptist, although maybe they'll cover.
• 17:12
  They're a big favorite. They open -14 after up to -16
• 17:15
  half. This is an added game, extra
• 17:16
  game at 10:00 here tonight. But once again, our experiment,
• 17:20
  let's buy low. Or again, I keep saying that I'm
• 17:22
  sorry, sell high. I guess buy low is a figure of
• 17:26
  speech in the investment community.
• 17:28
  But anyway, let's sell high and let's play the under this Liu
• 17:32
  Cal Baptist total, it opened. I saw an opener as low as 143.
• 17:36
  Some other openers like closer to 145, but still we've seen not
• 17:40
  now this Cal Baptist Liu total get up to 148 1/2.
• 17:44
  So whether it's the 1:45 that's a 3 1/2 point move or the 143
• 17:49
  that's a 5 1/2 point move, we've definitely seen this thing tick
• 17:52
  up. But here's the thing.
• 17:54
  Ken Palm has a 145, Rhythm has a 146 1/2 and a 145 1/2.
• 18:00
  So Ken Palm and Rhythm are around one 45146, even 147.
• 18:04
  We're able to sell high and get under 148 1/2 some good value
• 18:08
  there. It is a big spread favored by 16
• 18:11
  1/2 Cal Baptist. So if you're up big second-half,
• 18:14
  take your foot off the gas. Let's just get out of there.
• 18:16
  And then also Cal Baptist is one of the slowest tempo teams in
• 18:19
  all of college hoops. They rank their they rank like
• 18:23
  300 and 40th out of 364 teams. So let's sell high and go Liu
• 18:29
  Cal Baptist under 148 1/2. So William and Mary under 159
• 18:34
  1/2, Washington State, Iowa under 171 1/2 and Cal Baptist,
• 18:39
  Liu under 148 1/2. Now, one bet in the NBA for you.
• 18:43
  I mentioned this is a team that you probably think stinks, but
• 18:46
  they're actually not as bad as you might, might think.
• 18:49
  The Detroit Pistons, Pistons on the road at the Toronto Raptors.
• 18:53
  Now the Pistons, as I mentioned, I kind of didn't realize that
• 18:57
  they, you know, young team here, a lot of a lot of first round
• 19:00
  picks, top five picks, but they kind of augmented their team
• 19:03
  with some veterans, which is maybe why they're playing a
• 19:05
  little better this year. They are five and eight on the
• 19:08
  year. They go to Toronto, who's 2 and
• 19:10
  10. They picked up who was it?
• 19:13
  I want to say Tobias Harris and Hardaway.
• 19:16
  So you got some veterans now, which is really what you needed.
• 19:19
  But the first thing I noticed is a dog to fave line move in favor
• 19:22
  of Detroit. Now this game open Toronto
• 19:24
  listed around a 2 1/2 point favorite at home.
• 19:27
  We've now seen it flip to Detroit -2 so we got a dog to
• 19:30
  fave line move. We have pretty good bet splits
• 19:33
  here. On the spread, Detroit is
• 19:35
  getting 70% but 83% dollars. On the money line, they're
• 19:38
  getting 69% but 79% dollars. So both the spread and money
• 19:42
  line are good. Low bets.
• 19:44
  Higher dollars splits toward the Pistons, which goes with that
• 19:47
  Pistons line move. Both teams are about equal.
• 19:50
  Offensive efficiency, but a big advantage defensively.
• 19:54
  Detroit is 13th and defensive efficiency.
• 19:57
  That's not bad. 29th for Toronto.
• 20:00
  A lot of system matches here on Detroit, if they're both off a
• 20:04
  loss, take the favorite that is 81 and 3570% straight up.
• 20:10
  So I should have mentioned this is a money line play for me.
• 20:12
  I got the money line on Detroit at -125 but this is going back
• 20:18
  the last two seasons. If you're both off a loss, just
• 20:20
  take the favorite straight up. 81 and 3570% Rd. favorite
• 20:25
  straight up. Your favorite on the excuse me,
• 20:27
  your favorite on the road, 45 and 27 this year, 62%.
• 20:30
  It's actually 69% over the last three years.
• 20:34
  So it's been a good system as well.
• 20:35
  And then the last 10, Detroit's five and five, they've scored
• 20:38
  109 points and given up 110. But Toronto, I don't know if
• 20:42
  this is a play on Detroit or more of a bet against Toronto,
• 20:45
  but Toronto was 1 and 9. Their last 10, they're scoring
• 20:47
  113, but they're giving up 121 points per game.
• 20:51
  So I'm going to follow this dog to fave line move, good bet
• 20:54
  splits, better defense system matches.
• 20:57
  I got the Pistons to win the damn game at -125 So that was
• 21:01
  our place for tonight. UTSA college football money
• 21:04
  line. Colorado State, Wyoming under 46
• 21:06
  and a half, 4645 1/2 Now William and Mary under 159 1/2,
• 21:11
  Washington, IA under 171 1/2, Cal Baptist under 148 1/2.
• 21:16
  And then the Pistons to win the damn game.
• 21:18
  I never thought I'd say Pistons money line, but here we are.
• 21:21
  Let's go Pistons at -1 What I say -125 now let's look toward
• 21:27
  the weekend. How about a UFC biting play for
• 21:30
  you as we go to some UFC3O9 miocic against Jon Bones Jones.
• 21:37
  Jon Jones huge favorite. Like -650 By the way, I know we
• 21:41
  have Tyson and Logan Paul tonight or Jake Paul.
• 21:46
  I will definitely be watching that on Netflix.
• 21:47
  But I know the players like how do you not take Tyson?
• 21:51
  Looks like Jake Paul is kind of sharp.
• 21:52
  Everyone's been Tyson and he's like plus 175, but Jake Paul
• 21:56
  continues to be like -200 -, 250, something like that.
• 21:59
  He's got a huge youth advantage, like a 30 year youth advantage.
• 22:02
  So again, do with that what you want.
• 22:04
  I got no action on it, but just wanted to mention that reminds
• 22:07
  me a little bit of Mayweather and McGregor a few years back
• 22:10
  where everyone played McGregor plus money, but Mayweather was a
• 22:14
  big minus number and he ended up winning anyway.
• 22:17
  Let's get to UFC1 bet for you in the UFC.
• 22:20
  I'm going to look toward a prelim match up here.
• 22:23
  This is a big fight between Damon Jackson and Jim Miller.
• 22:27
  Now, this one jumped out to me for a couple reasons.
• 22:30
  Let's start off with kind of the way we like to look at UFC,
• 22:33
  looking at the tail of the tape as well as the data from the
• 22:36
  sports books and how the market is reacting.
• 22:39
  So Damon Jackson, that's my play here.
• 22:42
  He opened around -135 he's now been bet up to around -180 so
• 22:47
  big steam in his favor. Now he's getting 60% bets but
• 22:50
  70% money. Not a huge discrepancy, but he's
• 22:53
  got a good line move and he's got a low bets higher dollars
• 22:56
  bet split. But here's where it gets good
• 22:57
  for Damon Jackson. Damon Jackson is 36 years old.
• 23:01
  It's kind of old. I'm 37, not that that matters at
• 23:04
  all, but his opponent, Jim Miller is 41 years old.
• 23:09
  So fade fighters who are 35 or older.
• 23:12
  Technically that would be Jackson, but you definitely want
• 23:14
  to fade fighters who are 40 or older. 41 is like that's like a
• 23:18
  a lion in the Serengeti. That's been through all the
• 23:21
  battles and is barely hanging on.
• 23:24
  But that is a big youth advantage, 36 versus 41.
• 23:27
  I want to fade the 41 year old who is Miller, he's 5 foot 9.
• 23:31
  Damon Jackson, his opponent's 5 foot 7.
• 23:33
  So 2/2 inch height advantage. They both have a 71 inch reach,
• 23:38
  so Jackson would be low bets. Higher dollars, line move, youth
• 23:42
  advantage, height advantage. Then I dug a little deeper.
• 23:46
  I was reading about how Damon Jackson is a much better
• 23:48
  grappler. So if this gets to the mat, big
• 23:50
  advantage to Jackson, obviously huge youth advantage and Jim
• 23:54
  Miller on the decline, 41 years old.
• 23:57
  But also, here's another angle. I was reading about how Damon
• 24:00
  Jackson just switched his weight class.
• 24:03
  He moved up a weight class, He's moved up to lightweight.
• 24:06
  And why is that important? Because in order to fight at
• 24:09
  your current weight, you have to cut weight.
• 24:11
  So you got to lose weight in order to make the weigh in.
• 24:14
  And Jackson was talking about how he's always had trouble with
• 24:17
  that. Now he went up a class and he's
• 24:18
  a little bit bigger and doesn't have to cut as much weight.
• 24:21
  So he's more comfortable by going up the weight class here
• 24:24
  and doesn't have to cut weight. So hopefully that is an
• 24:26
  advantage against a really old fighter here who's barely
• 24:30
  hanging on. So I'm going to go with the line
• 24:31
  move. I'm going to go with the youth
• 24:33
  advantage, better grappler, confidence in his new weight
• 24:36
  class. I got Jim, I got sorry.
• 24:39
  Damon Jackson reminds me of Damian Jackson, old Red Sox
• 24:42
  player, but Damon Jackson on the money line.
• 24:45
  I got a -, 180 at Caesar's. Shop around.
• 24:48
  He's closer to like -190 and a couple other books.
• 24:50
  But remember, this is also a gamble and loo play gamble and
• 24:54
  loo. I gave him a few fighters and he
• 24:55
  said, I'm also on Damon Jackson. So that's good enough for me.
• 24:58
  So let's go. Damon Jackson on the money line
• 25:00
  at -180 Now looking toward the NFL slate for this weekend.
• 25:05
  Reminder, we're going to do the live stream, which will be 11:00
• 25:08
  AM Eastern Time on Sunday. Myself and my buddy James Santor
• 25:12
  with Rhythm. So download the Rhythm app, get
• 25:13
  ready to go. But let's look at some plays
• 25:16
  that I've already got in pocket. First one I mentioned earlier in
• 25:19
  the week, but I'm on the Patriots.
• 25:21
  Actually, the day I mentioned it, when I said take them 4 1/2,
• 25:25
  FanDuel had them 5 1/2. So you might have even gotten a
• 25:27
  better number. But remember, they open getting
• 25:30
  like 6 1/2. They're down to four and a half
• 25:32
  the lines going to the Patriots, even though they're only getting
• 25:34
  34% of bets. And I want to bet against the
• 25:37
  Rams because the Rams are going cross country West Coast to east
• 25:42
  for a 1:00 start. They also played on Monday
• 25:44
  night. And we have rest first tired
• 25:46
  advantage in favor of New England Patriots.
• 25:49
  Also, rhythm is predicting plus 3.1.
• 25:52
  So if we're getting a four and a half Publix Rams lines going to
• 25:55
  Pats, I'm on the Patriots guys. Now you can play in plus 4 1/2.
• 25:59
  Next one, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
• 26:01
  I'm going to take the points in this one.
• 26:03
  Now, it's not a huge. How should I put this line move
• 26:08
  or bet splits system match? It's about 5050.
• 26:11
  They're at home against Baltimore, of course, but
• 26:14
  there's a lot of angles to think that this is going to be a very
• 26:16
  tight game, which is why I think that hook could be really
• 26:18
  important. So shop around.
• 26:20
  I'm going to play the Steelers here.
• 26:22
  I got the Steelers at plus 3 1/2.
• 26:24
  And let me just give you the updated books that are offering
• 26:27
  the 3 1/2 because I want to say it is, I guess there's a lot of
• 26:32
  threes out there. So hold out for the 3 1/2.
• 26:35
  I was, I thought DraftKings had it and there was one other book
• 26:38
  that had it, but try to get the 3 1/2.
• 26:40
  That's really critical here. But it's a divisional match up.
• 26:43
  I got a lot of angles here. Wilson has a dog, Mike Tomlin
• 26:46
  has a dog, has been great, 66% ATS divisional dog.
• 26:51
  And I, there was some crazy stat where like the last 20 games
• 26:53
  between these teams, like the underdog is something crazy like
• 26:57
  15 and five again, they're like 17 and three ATS, something like
• 27:00
  that. But that just smells like, hey,
• 27:02
  if you get the hook, you're probably feeling pretty good.
• 27:04
  So I'm going to take Pittsburgh there.
• 27:06
  Again, shop around. You could wait it out or buy it
• 27:08
  up, but you got to get the half point and that's going to be my
• 27:12
  bet here. I was able to get that 3 1/2 on
• 27:15
  Pittsburgh. Next one for you.
• 27:16
  Broncos money line mentioned this earlier in the week, but
• 27:18
  dog to fave yet. Atlanta Open around a 1 1/2
• 27:21
  point Rd. favorite. Now we flip to Denver -2
• 27:25
  Denver's actually only getting 49% bets but 62% dollars.
• 27:30
  They would also be a good advantage play hopefully with a
• 27:34
  Dome team in the South going to Denver where it's cold and you
• 27:37
  have the altitude. So that's kind of a good home,
• 27:39
  home field advantage. Non conference favorite as well.
• 27:43
  I money line the Denver Broncos got them around -135 Next one
• 27:49
  for you, man. I'm worried because Patrick
• 27:54
  Holmes says the dog is so good. 12 and one against the spread.
• 27:57
  But I got to trust the market here.
• 27:58
  I'm gonna go Buffalo Bills, guys, I'm probably an idiot.
• 28:01
  I probably should just blindly take Patrick Mahomes like I did
• 28:03
  in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl, big stakes, Hey,
• 28:06
  he's going to come out on top. I think it's a good angle to
• 28:08
  back Buffalo here, guys. Public is on KC, almost 60% of
• 28:13
  bets. But KC at some shops like open
• 28:16
  getting a point, laying a point, and all movements been toward
• 28:19
  Buffalo, they're up to -1 1/2 - 2.
• 28:22
  They even got as high as 2 1/2 early earlier this week.
• 28:25
  So Broncos are only getting 40 or sorry Buffalo is only getting
• 28:29
  40% bets but 55% dollars this most heavily bet game of the
• 28:33
  week. This looks like a fade the
• 28:34
  trendy dog. Now think of it this way,
• 28:36
  everyone knows how great Mahomes is as a dog, yet they're still
• 28:41
  giving you Mahomes as a dog. Like why isn't this down to a
• 28:43
  pick? Why isn't it moved to KC -1 I
• 28:46
  got to stay true to reading the market here and go.
• 28:48
  Buffalo looks like a fade the trendy dog reverse line move.
• 28:51
  So I'm on Bill's money line, shop around, got Bill's money
• 28:54
  line around -125 and then last one for you, I'm going to go
• 28:58
  Chargers. Chargers at home against the
• 29:01
  Cincinnati Bengals. Biggest thing I notice about
• 29:03
  this one, guys, is everyone's playing the Bengals.
• 29:06
  They're getting 72% of bats. This is Sunday night game.
• 29:09
  So right off the bat, prime time 72%.
• 29:12
  Cincy. I got to go 28% with the
• 29:14
  Chargers. Sharp line freezer RLM.
• 29:17
  You know a lot of books open like -1 Chargers.
• 29:20
  Some books most of them are at -1 1/2.
• 29:22
  Why is the line going to Chargers if everyone's playing?
• 29:25
  Joe Burrow tells me we have a again for either trendy dog
• 29:28
  reverse line move. Like if you like Buffalo you
• 29:30
  like the Chargers or vice versa. Chargers are even more
• 29:33
  contrarian. Obviously I love Burrow and
• 29:36
  looks like T Higgins will play, but a much better defense for
• 29:39
  the Chargers. And if you give me Harbaugh
• 29:41
  contrarian prime time game only getting 28% with a little bit of
• 29:45
  movement in his favor. Like again, if everyone's
• 29:48
  playing Cincy, why isn't this down to a pick?
• 29:50
  We're hopping the fence going to cincy -1 tells me we got smart
• 29:53
  money here on the Charger. So I money line the Chargers got
• 29:56
  them at -125 Now couple plays in college football.
• 30:00
  For this weekend, I'm going to focus on some of the most
• 30:03
  heavily backed games of the weekend.
• 30:05
  First one here, Tennessee and Georgia.
• 30:08
  Now this one is interesting because it's the most heavily
• 30:11
  backed game of of the entire slate on Saturday.
• 30:14
  It's a 7:30 PM prime time game and it looks like it's going to
• 30:18
  be close game, right? Tennessee is ranked number.
• 30:22
  What are they ranked 7th? And Georgia is ranked 12th.
• 30:25
  Georgia's coming off a loss to Ole Miss.
• 30:27
  Fine by us. We had Ole Miss in that game.
• 30:29
  Tennessee's coming off a big win.
• 30:31
  So if all of that is the case, then why is Georgia such a big
• 30:36
  favorite? Georgia is favored by, what is
• 30:39
  it, nine and a half, ten points. Does that seem like a really
• 30:42
  high number, guys? Like, again, shouldn't you take
• 30:45
  the points here with Tennessee? They're ranked higher, nine and
• 30:48
  a half, ten points. That's a lot.
• 30:50
  That's what the public's saying. 73% of bets are on Tennessee.
• 30:54
  But guys, the Lions moving to Georgia, I like Georgia to win
• 30:57
  this one by double digits. They open -9 they're up to 9 1/2
• 31:01
  again, Some shops even going up to 10.
• 31:03
  Most heavily back game of the day, 730 prime time.
• 31:06
  Only 27 percent is your number one contrarian play.
• 31:09
  A lot of times you think of contrarian plays as gross dogs.
• 31:12
  This is a kind of a gross favorite and it's the ultimate
• 31:15
  buy low sell high. Tennessee off a win, Georgia off
• 31:17
  a loss. And why is the number 12 team
• 31:20
  favored over the number 17? Shouldn't this be maybe Georgia
• 31:23
  -3 at home? I'd even maybe give you -6 this
• 31:26
  screams like public Tennessee, but wise guys on Georgia.
• 31:31
  So lines going to Georgia, even though they're only getting one
• 31:33
  out of four bets. So I'm going to lay it with
• 31:35
  Georgia. Hopefully they can show up and
• 31:37
  roll against the balls. I'm laying -9 1/2 with Georgia.
• 31:42
  Next one for you, Kansas and BYUI got to go Kansas in this
• 31:47
  one, guys. They made us proud last week
• 31:49
  with that big win outright and then we took him as a dog.
• 31:52
  But they're also a dog this time against against BYU.
• 31:57
  So going to this one, we had the opener of BYU -3 1/2 at home.
• 32:02
  Now the line is down to 2 1/2. So the lines going to Kansas,
• 32:06
  why is that important? Because Kansas is only getting
• 32:09
  25% bets. So why is the line going to
• 32:11
  Jayhawks if everyone's playing BYU?
• 32:13
  Remember, Kansas is three and six.
• 32:16
  BYU is 9 and O and ranked six in the country.
• 32:18
  Shouldn't BYU be -7 -, 10? Like why is this line so short
• 32:23
  and getting shorter in favor of Kansas if everyone's playing
• 32:25
  BYU? This tells me we got to go
• 32:27
  Kansas. It may not may seem crazy again.
• 32:31
  They could win, they could lose, they could get rolled, you know,
• 32:34
  whatever the case may be. But this is a play I got to make
• 32:36
  on Kansas on ranked versus ranked, as well as a buy low
• 32:40
  sell high. Super fishy.
• 32:43
  Now the angle here is you got to get the three key number of
• 32:45
  three. Right now you're only getting 2
• 32:48
  1/2's pretty much across the market, but you're juiced up
• 32:50
  toward BYU. And this is a late night game
• 32:53
  tomorrow at 10:15 PM Eastern Time.
• 32:55
  So let's hold out for a three. You could wait for it.
• 32:57
  You could also buy it up like I'm looking right now at BET
• 33:00
  MGM. It is BYU -120 -, 2 1/2 + 2 1/2
• 33:05
  Kansas at plus 100. We could buy that half point to
• 33:08
  +3 at like -115 - 120. So I was able to get the 3 + 3 -
• 33:13
  120 with Kansas. Again, if you if you only have a
• 33:15
  2 1/2, there's no reason to play it.
• 33:17
  We got to hold out for the three, but let's try to get that
• 33:19
  three Kansas plus three Texas and Arkansas.
• 33:24
  I'm going to take the points with Arkansas here.
• 33:27
  It's one of most heavily back games.
• 33:28
  Texas open around a 15 point favorite.
• 33:31
  People are still playing Texas. They got no belief in Arkansas.
• 33:34
  83% of bets are on Texas, but they open minus -15 the lines
• 33:39
  down to 12 1/2. Why is the line falling toward
• 33:43
  Arkansas if no one wants to play?
• 33:44
  Arkansas again tells me smart money on the Razorbacks.
• 33:47
  Only 17% bets. Conference dog on ranked versus
• 33:51
  ranked. Another gross dog here that I
• 33:53
  got to play. So I'm on Arkansas plus 12 1/2.
• 33:56
  Then one more for you that caught my eye.
• 33:58
  Oregon State and Air Force. I'm going to take the points
• 34:01
  with Air Force here. Oregon State open as a 5 point
• 34:03
  favorite on the road. The lines down to 3 1/2 and some
• 34:06
  shops are even getting down to three.
• 34:08
  Why is that important? Because 60% of bets are on
• 34:10
  Oregon State. So you know, we love that angle,
• 34:13
  that gross home dog with the line move in their favor, Air
• 34:15
  Force would fit the bill. So I was able to get the hook on
• 34:18
  Air Force plus 3 1/2 that's available right now at Bet MGM
• 34:21
  and FanDuel. Air Force is only getting 40%
• 34:24
  bets, but 71% dollars They got the sharp line move and
• 34:29
  altitude. It's hard to go to Air Force
• 34:31
  Colorado and you know, have your have your wind, have your have
• 34:36
  your your breathing getting used to it because of the rarefied
• 34:39
  air. So I'm going to follow the sharp
• 34:40
  move again, try to get the hook. It is out there.
• 34:43
  I'm going to play Air Force plus 3 1/2.
• 34:45
  So Georgia -9 1/2 Kansas hold out buy it up weight plus 3
• 34:51
  Arkansas plus 12 1/2 and Air Force plus 3 1/2.
• 34:54
  Those are the plays for this weekend we had on it all.
• 34:58
  Boy, is that a jam packed Friday pod.
• 35:00
  But anyway, guys finishing up the week here.
• 35:03
  I always like to wrap up the pod with a few things.
• 35:05
  One, if you enjoy this podcast, can you please help me to grow
• 35:08
  this pod by giving it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes
• 35:12
  will mean a lot to me. Help us to gain more, more, more
• 35:15
  listens, more recognition, continue to rise up the charts.
• 35:19
  If you want to click the follow button or recommend it to a
• 35:21
  friend, I would love that as well.
• 35:23
  Secondly, if you want to support the pod and you want to learn
• 35:26
  more about data-driven betting, go buy my book.
• 35:29
  It's less than 20 bucks. It makes a great stocking
• 35:31
  stuffer or holiday gift. Holidays are upon us guys, but
• 35:34
  it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 35:36
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 35:38
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 35:40
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 35:43
  a bankroll management plan, the everything guide to sports
• 35:46
  betting. Go pick one up for you or a
• 35:48
  friend when you bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you and
• 35:51
  I'll buy you a beer next. Have you taken advantage of
• 35:54
  Rhythm or juice reel the seven day free trials for both.
• 35:57
  Well, if you haven't yet, Friday's a good time to do it
• 36:00
  because we got a big betting weekend ahead.
• 36:02
  Juice Reel great for their and now you can track the best bet
• 36:05
  picks from the all systems go pod on the social tab.
• 36:08
  You can follow the best bets from Robo Jackson.
• 36:10
  You can look at arbitrage opportunities, sharp mush
• 36:13
  angles, betting breakdowns for all the major sports, great for
• 36:16
  shopping for the best line, especially futures, getting the
• 36:19
  best price and then Rhythm great for their AI backed models and
• 36:22
  predictions for best bets and player props helping us cash
• 36:26
  Kenneth Gainwell last night, which was great.
• 36:28
  So please go sign up for both by clicking those custom links that
• 36:31
  are located in the bio description of each podcast.
• 36:35
  So that about does everybody megapod here on a Friday is now
• 36:39
  in the books, but I'll leave you with a couple things.
• 36:41
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 36:44
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 36:47
  Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
• 36:50
  Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 36:52
  In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 36:54
  Out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy
• 36:56
  Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest juice possible
• 36:59
  is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays
• 37:02
  jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 37:03
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 37:07
  you're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me a nice
• 37:09
  five and O from yesterday. Great bounce back after a bad,
• 37:12
  bad Wednesday night. Show me an Eagles under 49 1/2.
• 37:15
  A Kenneth Gainwell over 14 1/2 some experimental college
• 37:19
  basketball totals. SIU, Oklahoma State.
• 37:21
  Please tell me you got the 163 1/2 Pacific Cal Poly Guess what?
• 37:25
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 37:27
  We're going to post about the book Sweatshop and train plays
• 37:30
  all night long. So wish you the best of luck,
• 37:32
  everyone. Reminder, I'll see you Sunday at
• 37:34
  11:00 AM Eastern Time for the live stream on Twitter with my
• 37:38
  buddy James Santor. Powered by Rhythm the Sunday
• 37:40
  sweats. But between now and then, let's
• 37:43
  see if we can cash some tickets. I'll always leave you with this,
• 37:46
  some parting words of advice that I've learned over time that
• 37:49
  other people have instilled in me and now I want to instill in
• 37:52
  you #1 it's difficult to win in sports betting.
• 37:56
  So when you have a one in six night, don't get too down on
• 37:58
  yourself. But when you go 5 and O, don't
• 38:00
  get cocky and arrogant. Always grinding out the model.
• 38:03
  And the model is monitoring the market, making smart bets with
• 38:06
  our head and not our heart. So if we can do that long term,
• 38:09
  stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
• 38:12
  ourselves on the side of the house, always be with the smart
• 38:15
  money, never against it. And again, smart money won't win
• 38:17
  every time, but it is going to win a majority of the time long
• 38:20
  term, 55 to 60%. So if we can do that, if we can
• 38:23
  never get too high or too low, grind the model flat bet, no
• 38:27
  parlays, get some CLV. If we can do that, and I'm
• 38:30
  confident we can, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 38:33
  So have a great Friday night everybody, have an even better
• 38:35
  weekend. I'll see you for Sunday sweats,
• 38:37
  11:00 AM Eastern Time on Twitter, and we'll be back at it
• 38:40
  for Monday for episode 165 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 38:44
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 38:47
  Have a great day everybody, and an even better weekend.
• 38:49
  Good luck.