Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 7/23/26: Oil Hits $100, Prof Marandi On War Escalation, Hegseth Demands Billions

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7/23/26: Oil Hits $100, Prof Marandi On War Escalation, Hegseth Demands Billions · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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0:36
Speaker 1: I have an amazed show for everybody today, would be Crystal.
0:38
Speaker 2: Indeed, we do oil headed back up to one hundred
0:41
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel right now as we speak, it sits
0:43
Speaker 2: at ninety eight dollars. This comes as Trump issues new threats.
0:46
Speaker 2: Professor Mohammad Morandi is going to join us with the
0:49
Speaker 2: view from Tehran on what is unfolding in the Iran
0:51
Speaker 2: War de Pentagon. Meanwhile, it's begging for more money and
0:54
Speaker 2: it's not going all that wealth. Even Maga is getting
0:57
Speaker 2: sick of this war. There are a bunch of new
0:59
Speaker 2: poles looking pretty grim for the President and his coalition.
1:02
Speaker 2: AI escaped the lab and hacked into another company. Significant
1:08
Speaker 2: significant warning signs here, major breach. We're going to have
1:11
Speaker 2: an expert on to breakdown what this means going forward,
1:14
Speaker 2: and we have this is a soccer special, author of
1:16
Speaker 2: a book on the garontocracy with some fairly provocative ideas
1:21
Speaker 2: about how to get the old people in checks. So
1:24
Speaker 2: that'll be an interesting one. I have some things I
1:26
Speaker 2: want to some bones I want to pick with them
1:28
Speaker 2: on this book.
1:28
Speaker 4: He's just asking questions, not asking questions. He's the starting
1:33
Speaker 4: He just to give the games away a little bit.
1:34
Speaker 2: He thinks old people should have less of a vote,
1:36
Speaker 2: like their vote should actually be rated, which is kind
1:39
Speaker 2: of wild, Like it's like a weird threefits compromise for.
1:42
Speaker 3: Old wild pushing wild or potentially a visionary. We will
1:47
Speaker 3: get to that. Maybe they'll be laughing at it, or
1:50
Speaker 3: maybe maybe they'll be laughing at us.
1:51
Speaker 1: For even doubting him. Twenty years from now.
1:54
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Speaker 3: five stars really helps other people find the show. But
2:17
Speaker 3: we're going to go ahead and start with the escalation
2:19
Speaker 3: in oil and in the Red Sea as who these
2:21
Speaker 3: continue to fire.
2:22
Speaker 2: Let's go out and put a two B up on
2:24
Speaker 2: the screen here. As I mentioned before, oil is skyrocketing
2:27
Speaker 2: this morning, back up to nearly one hundred dollars a barrel.
2:31
Speaker 2: As we speak right now at eight oh four am,
2:33
Speaker 2: it is at ninety eight dollars a barrel, So a significant,
2:37
Speaker 2: significant spike and no surprise why because not only are
2:41
Speaker 2: we back to war where there is a blockade and
2:43
Speaker 2: a blockade of the blockade, but we had the hoo
2:46
Speaker 2: Thies come out and say, hey, guess what, Saudi Arabia,
2:50
Speaker 2: you are not going to be able to ship through
2:52
Speaker 2: the Bobelmandob straight and they made good on their pledge
2:56
Speaker 2: to enforce their own blockade.
2:58
Speaker 4: We can put a one B up on the screen.
3:01
Speaker 2: Here the Houthis are claiming attacks on two Saudi oil tankers.
3:05
Speaker 2: One of them has certainly been confirmed. You can see
3:08
Speaker 2: this fire are confirmed images from one of those Saudi
3:12
Speaker 2: oil tankers. And as we've all learned with the straight
3:15
Speaker 2: of horm moves, it actually doesn't take a lot to
3:18
Speaker 2: dissuade the entire shipping industry. They don't want to risk
3:21
Speaker 2: their lives on behalf of the oil industry. The insurance
3:25
Speaker 2: companies do not think that this is worth backing the
3:28
Speaker 2: taking the financial risk here, and so what happens is
3:30
Speaker 2: a complete shutdown. This was an important pressure valve soger
3:34
Speaker 2: for the entire oil market. Saudi was able to get
3:38
Speaker 2: some four or five six somewhere in that ballpark million
3:41
Speaker 2: barrels of oil out through this area. The very large
3:44
Speaker 2: tanker ships that they typically use to transport oil are
3:47
Speaker 2: too large to go through the Suez Canal, so this
3:50
Speaker 2: was really the route that they needed to take. Now
3:52
Speaker 2: that has been shut off as well, and the markets
3:55
Speaker 2: are reacting accordingly.
3:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
3:57
Speaker 3: There actually is a very interesting geopolitical wrinkle to all
4:00
Speaker 3: of this is a Chinese flagged oil tank This literally
4:03
Speaker 3: just happened this morning. Chinese flagged oil tanker which had
4:05
Speaker 3: docked in Saudi Arabia actually was allowed to go through
4:09
Speaker 3: the Baba Mandev straight by the Houthis. This initially came
4:13
Speaker 3: after they had done a U turn and then appearent
4:15
Speaker 3: some diplomacy had happened behind the scenes, just to give
4:19
Speaker 3: people an example. So it's not so even though the
4:21
Speaker 3: Hoothis had declared that Saudi Arabian oil, specifically any tanker
4:26
Speaker 3: that took their oil coming through the strait or through
4:29
Speaker 3: the Baba Mandev straight was going to get hit, it
4:31
Speaker 3: does appear that there's some side deal that has happened
4:33
Speaker 3: here with Beijing. Now that's not going to have any
4:35
Speaker 3: impact on any of us, but it is certainly demonstrates
4:39
Speaker 3: the way that things are moving some behind the scenes
4:42
Speaker 3: while Western oil companies or Western or Golf Arab ships
4:46
Speaker 3: which doc are liable to be shot at, which is
4:49
Speaker 3: significant right in terms of both the Chinese ability to
4:52
Speaker 3: have some diplomacy here behind the scenes.
4:54
Speaker 1: And I do think it's worth saying.
4:56
Speaker 3: That all of this is because actually of Trump, and
4:59
Speaker 3: it's not just in terms of the Iran war. Trump
5:02
Speaker 3: told MBS reportedly behind the scenes. Go ahead, go ahead
5:05
Speaker 3: and start firing at the Hoothies. It's very noteworthy that
5:07
Speaker 3: the Hoothies did not do any of this in the
5:09
Speaker 3: first phase of the war, when at least seemingly there
5:12
Speaker 3: was some restraint. And of course the war drums are
5:15
Speaker 3: beating again in Washington. We need to show the who
5:17
Speaker 3: he's a lesson. I'm like, yeah, try that one already
5:20
Speaker 3: completely failed.
5:20
Speaker 4: Actually Pretris two administration.
5:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Hoothy campaign from Joe Biden, what did he say?
5:26
Speaker 1: Famously he said, he said, are we going to continue?
5:29
Speaker 1: Is it working?
5:30
Speaker 5: No?
5:30
Speaker 1: Are we going to continue bombing them? Yes? Actual quote
5:33
Speaker 1: from Joe Biden.
5:34
Speaker 2: One of the more honest foreign policy statements in American
5:36
Speaker 2: president has ever made.
5:37
Speaker 3: It basically, you know, gives the entire game away. Trump escalated,
5:41
Speaker 3: the campaign didn't work, complete in a total failure, and it.
5:45
Speaker 4: Just actually quietly gave up, totally gave up.
5:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a real precursor to what happened, what
5:51
Speaker 3: was going to happen with the war.
5:53
Speaker 1: And you also have a one we could put here
5:56
Speaker 1: on the screen.
5:56
Speaker 3: Trump absolutely desperate this truth social posts from you yesterday.
6:00
Speaker 3: From this point forward, anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran
6:03
Speaker 3: shoots at a ship in the Strait of Horn moves,
6:05
Speaker 3: whether it be by missile, rocket, drone, or any other
6:08
Speaker 3: device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy
6:11
Speaker 3: one bridge or power plant, including those located next to
6:14
Speaker 3: or in the capital city of Tehran, you know, openly,
6:18
Speaker 3: just flouting, you know, the usual way that the United
6:21
Speaker 3: States conducts war.
6:22
Speaker 1: And so that's one thing.
6:23
Speaker 3: But the second thing is this is by account of
6:26
Speaker 3: one analyst, the tenth time that he has threatened civilian
6:29
Speaker 3: infrastructure around Tehran.
6:31
Speaker 1: So he's either going to do it or not.
6:32
Speaker 3: I mean, look, it could precursor you know, the biggest
6:34
Speaker 3: taco of all time, which you shouldn't you know, that
6:37
Speaker 3: literally happen on the same day as that a whole
6:39
Speaker 3: civilization will die tonight. But as of this morning, we
6:42
Speaker 3: haven't even added any of this in the show because
6:44
Speaker 3: it's all literally happening in real time. There are thousands
6:47
Speaker 3: now of assets that have been repositioned in the Middle East.
6:50
Speaker 3: We talked in our last show about the warships in
6:52
Speaker 3: the worst sign yet one hundred and fifty new medics
6:55
Speaker 3: have arrived at the medical base in Lonstol in Germany.
6:58
Speaker 2: That is a lot of criticism of the medical care
7:00
Speaker 2: of the American service members have been receiving it.
7:02
Speaker 3: As there should be, and which many of the people
7:04
Speaker 3: who are wounded themselves will tell you it appears actually
7:08
Speaker 3: just broke again minutes ago. That does at least a
7:11
Speaker 3: dozen were severely wounded in the same attack in which
7:14
Speaker 3: those service members were killed recently in the base in Jordan.
7:18
Speaker 3: They are now in Germany, but they've surged all these
7:20
Speaker 3: new medics and the expectations potentially of more casualties that
7:23
Speaker 3: are coming in.
7:24
Speaker 1: All of these new warships.
7:26
Speaker 3: Special operations groups similarly have been repositioned back in the
7:29
Speaker 3: Middle East and then again literally as of this morning,
7:32
Speaker 3: the Israelis are actually expanding and opening new bomb shelters
7:36
Speaker 3: all across the country. Yet there has not been any
7:39
Speaker 3: announcement by the Idea of Home Command. So you put
7:42
Speaker 3: that all together and you have at least the potential
7:45
Speaker 3: for a serious escalation and Trump saying I'm going to
7:48
Speaker 3: threaten civilian infrastructure. One of the things that we really
7:51
Speaker 3: want to talk to Professor Morandi about is the new
7:54
Speaker 3: threats that the Iranian foreign Minister and Golobov have said
7:58
Speaker 3: specifically basically saying if you if we don't get to
8:00
Speaker 3: export any oil, you're not going to export any either.
8:03
Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at A three. This is
8:05
Speaker 2: from speaker Golliboff. He says essentially exactly what zageris said.
8:10
Speaker 2: The equation of this war is clear, either all or none.
8:12
Speaker 2: In a region where we do not sell oil, no
8:15
Speaker 2: one will sell oil. If our security is not ensured,
8:17
Speaker 2: no infrastructure will be safe, and the security of the
8:20
Speaker 2: Strait is in the absence of American forces. We have
8:23
Speaker 2: repeatedly said the situation of the Strait will not return
8:27
Speaker 2: to pre war conditions. Let's also put Arachi up on
8:31
Speaker 2: the screen here, echoing the sentiments. He says, Our defense
8:34
Speaker 2: doctrine is clear. I for an eye, any aggression against Iran,
8:38
Speaker 2: including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response.
8:42
Speaker 2: Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support,
8:45
Speaker 2: will also be considered as legitimate targets. That, of course,
8:49
Speaker 2: is the you know, the neighborhood there talking about Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar.
8:54
Speaker 2: Anyone who is involved you a, anyone who is involved
8:56
Speaker 2: in these attacks hosting American troops will be targeted. Of course,
9:00
Speaker 2: they have demonstrated time and again. In spite of this solo,
9:03
Speaker 2: their military is obliterated, apparently not obliterated, to obliterated to
9:06
Speaker 2: exact a lot of damage continuing on our bases, on
9:09
Speaker 2: our radar systems, making it much more difficult for US
9:11
Speaker 2: to intercept their missiles and protect our service members. And
9:15
Speaker 2: I don't know how to tell Trump that, even if
9:17
Speaker 2: we take his threat here at face value, that every
9:20
Speaker 2: time you know, he'll take one bridge, he'll take a
9:24
Speaker 2: power plant. Iran has a lot of bridges and power plants.
9:28
Speaker 2: They are much less vulnerable in a lot of ways
9:30
Speaker 2: than let's say Kuwait, where already we can put a
9:35
Speaker 2: five up on the screen. Already, kuwaitis are having to
9:39
Speaker 2: ration electricity because of Iranian hits to the power grid.
9:43
Speaker 4: This is pro the AFP.
9:44
Speaker 2: Residents of Kuwait City say they're adjusting their daily routines
9:46
Speaker 2: to reduce electricity consumption after authorities appealed for public cooperation
9:50
Speaker 2: following Iranian attacks targeting power and water facilities. The government
9:54
Speaker 2: is calling for this and we should all complies. As
9:56
Speaker 2: one resident, this region of the world is uninhabitable without
10:00
Speaker 2: power and without desalination plants and water, and by the
10:04
Speaker 2: way over a long period without the ability to import
10:07
Speaker 2: food stuff as well. They're completely dependent on these technologies
10:11
Speaker 2: and on being able to import what they need to survive.
10:14
Speaker 2: So they are genuinely, genuinely vulnerable in an existential way.
10:20
Speaker 2: I think that maybe some of the reason why after
10:23
Speaker 2: more maximal attacks, Trump has somewhat pulled back, although I
10:26
Speaker 2: think the more likely indication, based on the massing of
10:29
Speaker 2: troops and bringing in of medics. Assaga was just saying
10:33
Speaker 2: that we're seeing is that they are building up for
10:35
Speaker 2: some larger attack. Trump of course has already said they're
10:38
Speaker 2: going to bomb Pickaxe Mountain.
10:40
Speaker 4: I don't know what that's going to do.
10:41
Speaker 2: First of all, all of the military analysis I've seen
10:43
Speaker 2: has said that with conventional weapons, you're not going to
10:46
Speaker 2: be able to do much more than collapse the tunnels there.
10:48
Speaker 4: Of course, it's always possible he.
10:50
Speaker 2: Is considering breaking the nuclear taboo and using nuclear weapons,
10:54
Speaker 2: and I think that's exactly the sort of thing we
10:55
Speaker 2: have to be deeply concerned about that or some sort
10:58
Speaker 2: of fool hardy, almost certainly disastros ground invasion, either to
11:02
Speaker 2: take these islands or somewhere else in Iran. Because Trump
11:05
Speaker 2: is just that desperate there is. It is abundantly clear
11:09
Speaker 2: now that this air campaign only approach is not going
11:12
Speaker 2: to get him anywhere. His hand is much weaker than
11:16
Speaker 2: it was in fact when we originally signed that MoU
11:19
Speaker 2: that was our best chance to get out of this thing.
11:23
Speaker 2: And now the Iranians have no interest in negotiations because
11:26
Speaker 2: once again the US has blown up the negotiation and
11:31
Speaker 2: the diplomacy that process that had begun.
11:34
Speaker 3: And I'm reading in terms of some of the other
11:36
Speaker 3: things that they're flagging here for the Special Operations Group,
11:40
Speaker 3: the new amount of weapons that are.
11:42
Speaker 1: All being surged.
11:44
Speaker 3: The biggest problem also from what I was reading, is
11:47
Speaker 3: about what's going on with the Hoothies. If the United
11:51
Speaker 3: States were to want to reposition military assets to try
11:55
Speaker 3: and take on the hoo, this that we already face
11:58
Speaker 3: a serious problem. In terms of all of our air bases.
12:01
Speaker 3: The air bases themselves are mostly empty, a lot of
12:05
Speaker 3: them have been attacked. What we've also seen is that
12:07
Speaker 3: these carrier groups are all stretched to the absolute brim.
12:11
Speaker 3: I mean, I was reading like some of these guys
12:13
Speaker 3: have been deployed for eleven months, you know, far longer
12:17
Speaker 3: than they initially had expected. That causes serious issues with
12:20
Speaker 3: resupply and strain on the equipment for retrofit for all
12:24
Speaker 3: of that.
12:24
Speaker 1: So I just think that what you can.
12:26
Speaker 3: See broadly inside of the options that the military has,
12:30
Speaker 3: they actually are much more constrained other than what They're
12:34
Speaker 3: much more constrained. And furthermore, for example, like there's signs
12:38
Speaker 3: of many of the jets and all these other things.
12:40
Speaker 3: Someone was explaining to me the maintenance schedule. So recently
12:43
Speaker 3: a B one bomber was actually just used over Iran,
12:46
Speaker 3: not the first time it's been used in the campaign.
12:48
Speaker 3: But a military expert who I spoke to is like,
12:50
Speaker 3: they're really they're not doing that because of the missions
12:52
Speaker 3: that they needed to offset some of the demand that's
12:55
Speaker 3: already in place on some of the other ass So
12:57
Speaker 3: it just means you're pulling further and further and all
13:00
Speaker 3: of that into the region.
13:01
Speaker 1: So it's very very dangerous.
13:02
Speaker 2: I mean, so much of the way that we have
13:04
Speaker 2: been fighting wars and conceiving of security has just been
13:07
Speaker 2: completely blown up by this war.
13:09
Speaker 4: And all the signs were there.
13:10
Speaker 2: I mean, even if you just consider the basing strategy, right,
13:13
Speaker 2: the idea was that we have all these bases in
13:15
Speaker 2: the region and then you know, we would be able
13:17
Speaker 2: to deter Iran. I think it really didn't really didn't
13:21
Speaker 2: take into account. Okay, what if we're the aggrosser's here
13:24
Speaker 2: we start the war, how vulnerable we could ultimately end
13:27
Speaker 2: up being in the way that that would make the
13:29
Speaker 2: regional allies effectively sitting ducks. So rather than providing for
13:32
Speaker 2: their security, you're actually putting them at risk. You know,
13:35
Speaker 2: all of those bases that were attacked and abandoned. There's
13:38
Speaker 2: a reason why Iran is focusing on Jordan now because
13:40
Speaker 2: we've basically had to retreat to Jordan and we've seen
13:43
Speaker 2: the way that they were unable to protect service members there.
13:47
Speaker 2: At this point, Trump sort of disgustingly blaming the Jordana
13:49
Speaker 2: and saying, oh, they didn't know what they were doing
13:51
Speaker 2: in terms of missile defense. I mean, ultimately, even if
13:53
Speaker 2: that's the case, is still on us for delegating to
13:57
Speaker 2: someone if you didn't think that they were going to
13:58
Speaker 2: be Ultimately, up to the twenn the Iranians appear to
14:01
Speaker 2: be very strategic here in continuing to target very expensive
14:05
Speaker 2: radar systems, making it much less likely that we will
14:08
Speaker 2: be able to, you know, effectively intercept the missiles and
14:13
Speaker 2: the drones that they are sending. There's some indications that
14:15
Speaker 2: they're sort of building up to when eventually Israel does
14:20
Speaker 2: engage in their attacks again inside of Israel, to make
14:23
Speaker 2: Israel more difficult to defend as well. Meanwhile, Sacer was
14:27
Speaker 2: talking about, you know, Trump and the way that he's
14:30
Speaker 2: viewing these service member deaths. Let's go ahead and take
14:33
Speaker 2: a listen to A two and the way that he
14:36
Speaker 2: is claiming. You know, he's claiming that all of these
14:38
Speaker 2: fallen service members that they really were fully on board.
14:42
Speaker 4: With the mission. All of them said, we can't let
14:44
Speaker 4: Iran have a nuclear weapon. Let's listen to that.
14:47
Speaker 6: Some of you are going with it to honor our heroes,
14:51
Speaker 6: and they are in the rad heroes actually they said,
14:55
Speaker 6: and they all of them said very strongly, we can't
14:59
Speaker 6: let you should not let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
15:02
Speaker 6: They won't have a nuclear weapon, so we're going to
15:05
Speaker 6: honor them.
15:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously he has no idea what was in the
15:10
Speaker 2: minds of these individuals. And by the way, if your
15:12
Speaker 2: commitment was to keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,
15:15
Speaker 2: you have failed. There was a deal on the table
15:17
Speaker 2: prior to you engaging in this illegal, aggressive and monstrous
15:22
Speaker 2: war that would have led to Iran not having a
15:25
Speaker 2: nuclear weapon. Instead, all of the logic and incentives at
15:29
Speaker 2: this point are for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon.
15:32
Speaker 2: We are much more likely for that to happen than
15:33
Speaker 2: we were before this war.
15:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, all right.
15:35
Speaker 3: I think we have a Professor Morandi standing by, so
15:37
Speaker 3: let's get to it.
15:41
Speaker 2: So for the view from Iran, we are now joined
15:44
Speaker 2: by Professor Sayed Mohammed Mirandi of the University of Tehran.
15:47
Speaker 4: Great to see you against her, goodesteez.
15:48
Speaker 5: Her, Thank you both for inviting me. It's always a
15:52
Speaker 5: great pleasure.
15:53
Speaker 4: Of course.
15:53
Speaker 2: So we have a fresh Trump truth social for you
15:56
Speaker 2: to react to here. We don't even have the element
15:58
Speaker 2: made yet, so i'll read it to you. It says
16:01
Speaker 2: a year ago the United States of America attacked very
16:03
Speaker 2: powerfully the Houthis for their interference with commerce and trade
16:07
Speaker 2: by shooting at ships. Since that time and during our
16:09
Speaker 2: conflict with Iran, they've acted very responsibly. Unfortunately, now they
16:13
Speaker 2: are starting up again, shooting at two Saudi Arabian ships
16:17
Speaker 2: last night. Please let this truth serve to represent that
16:20
Speaker 2: if they do this again, the US will hold Iran
16:23
Speaker 2: responsible in that the Huthis are a surrogate and or
16:26
Speaker 2: proxy of Iran, major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran,
16:30
Speaker 2: and of course the Huthis themselves, who I'm very disappointed
16:33
Speaker 2: with in that they have until now acted very professionally
16:36
Speaker 2: and smart.
16:37
Speaker 4: Your reaction to that, sir, well, we.
16:41
Speaker 7: Are all ready on Trump's list, even as he's waging
16:46
Speaker 7: war against the country.
16:47
Speaker 5: He said that any ship that.
16:51
Speaker 7: Hid, of course, or even fired upon in the Australia
16:54
Speaker 7: Foremos in response to the United States will take out
16:57
Speaker 7: a power plant or a bridge.
17:01
Speaker 5: Well.
17:02
Speaker 7: Last night three ships tried to pass through the Straight
17:06
Speaker 7: of Hormoes without the permission of the Iranian navy, and
17:12
Speaker 7: one of them was struck and the other two retreat it.
17:14
Speaker 7: So far, Trump has not carried out his threat. Of course,
17:18
Speaker 7: the Iranians have said that if he does so, then
17:21
Speaker 7: those countries in the Persian Gulf that are compliced in
17:23
Speaker 7: this war, their critical infrastructure will be destroyed.
17:27
Speaker 5: And we know what that would mean.
17:29
Speaker 7: In the month of July and a in the Arabian Peninsula,
17:32
Speaker 7: that would effectively mean that these countries would have to
17:34
Speaker 7: be evacuated now and Sara Law has its own grievances.
17:39
Speaker 7: The Yemen or the Hothies as they see in the West.
17:43
Speaker 7: The Sodis have led a siege on their country for years,
17:47
Speaker 7: and they see this as the best moment to have
17:51
Speaker 7: leverage because the Straight of Hormos is closed. So they said,
17:54
Speaker 7: We're going to shut the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia
17:57
Speaker 7: until they lift the siege and the United States wage
18:01
Speaker 7: war against Yemen.
18:03
Speaker 5: They didn't. The United States did not succeed.
18:05
Speaker 7: So far, the United States in its war against Iran
18:08
Speaker 7: has not succeeded. If Trump wants to fight two wars
18:11
Speaker 7: simultaneously against these two entities that he could not defeat,
18:16
Speaker 7: I don't think the result will be victory.
18:18
Speaker 1: Professor.
18:19
Speaker 3: I'm curious for your reaction here about the ongoing diplomatic
18:23
Speaker 3: posture in Tehran. We can put a four up here
18:27
Speaker 3: on the screen. Your Foreign minister put this statement out yesterday.
18:31
Speaker 3: Our defense doctrine is clear, an eye for an eye.
18:34
Speaker 3: Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a
18:38
Speaker 3: powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression,
18:42
Speaker 3: whatever kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets.
18:46
Speaker 3: So if I pair this with some of the comments
18:48
Speaker 3: I've seen you make recently publicly going after many of
18:51
Speaker 3: these golf regimes which our hosts, of course to our bases.
18:56
Speaker 1: What can we expect.
18:57
Speaker 3: If Trump does follow through with the threat of bombing
19:01
Speaker 3: civilian infrastructure, specifically bomb of bridges and energy targets around
19:06
Speaker 3: the capital city, where will likely Iranian retaliation come.
19:12
Speaker 7: Well, if we go back to the forty Day War,
19:16
Speaker 7: the Ramadan War, back then there's Raeli regime and the
19:22
Speaker 7: United States. They began targeting Iranian critical infrastructure and one
19:26
Speaker 7: strike was on the South Park gas field, the biggest
19:30
Speaker 7: gas field in Iran, which is a joint field with
19:33
Speaker 7: Katak and the Iranian response because the Iranians had worn
19:36
Speaker 7: back then that they do the same thing, that they
19:39
Speaker 7: would strike back at the critical infrastructure of those countries
19:43
Speaker 7: that are hosting the US, that are enabling the USA
19:45
Speaker 7: attack Iran and the US and Israeli regime. So they
19:50
Speaker 7: struck back very hard, including striking at the Katari gas facilities.
19:55
Speaker 7: And then Trump right afterwards put up as truth social
20:00
Speaker 7: statement saying that this is not going to happen again
20:02
Speaker 7: and Nettino is not going to do this anymore, so
20:06
Speaker 7: that was Iran's deterrence, and a few days ago when
20:09
Speaker 7: the Americans, as you recall, they started bombing Iranian bridges
20:14
Speaker 7: and tunnels, all civilian and killing people who were on
20:18
Speaker 7: the bridge, including families, women and children.
20:20
Speaker 5: Well I'm not sure about children, but I do know
20:22
Speaker 5: about women.
20:24
Speaker 7: The Iranians threatened the United States and said that if
20:27
Speaker 7: you continue, we're going to strike back at the infrastructure.
20:31
Speaker 7: And the US also hit the desalination plant in the
20:35
Speaker 7: hospital in the city of the Children's Hospital so Iran.
20:38
Speaker 7: I'm sure you recall Struck who waits the electrical grid
20:44
Speaker 7: and a desalination plant to say that, to basically say that, look,
20:49
Speaker 7: take this threat seriously. And since then, the United States
20:52
Speaker 7: has sort of backed off, even though last night they
20:55
Speaker 7: did strike the border between Irani and Iraq, killing two pilgrims,
20:59
Speaker 7: which I don't know why they did that, but in general,
21:02
Speaker 7: the United States has backed off.
21:04
Speaker 5: So the Iranian threat is real.
21:05
Speaker 7: And the Iranians will go and destroy the infrastructure of
21:09
Speaker 7: these countries because they don't have access to US. It's
21:11
Speaker 7: infrastructure in the United States or so they're going to
21:14
Speaker 7: do it here. Now if that happens, you both know
21:19
Speaker 7: exactly what that will mean. That will mean that the
21:22
Speaker 7: energy markets will be wrecked permanently or at least for
21:28
Speaker 7: years to come. Because if Iran destroys a critical infrastructure
21:32
Speaker 7: in these countries, which are all deserts, and we're in
21:34
Speaker 7: the month of July, these countries will have to be evacuated,
21:38
Speaker 7: and that includes Saudi Arabia. The countries will fall apart,
21:42
Speaker 7: and that means that there will be no more energy
21:45
Speaker 7: for months, if not years to come, and that will
21:49
Speaker 7: lead to a global economic depression worse than the nineteen thirties.
21:52
Speaker 7: This is not something that Iran wants. Uran didn't start
21:55
Speaker 7: the war, Iran didn't escalate, Iran didn't and to target
22:00
Speaker 7: critical infrastructure. But this is Iran's deturrens. They will do this,
22:04
Speaker 7: but they're saying they will do this so that Trump
22:06
Speaker 7: does not move in.
22:09
Speaker 5: That direction.
22:12
Speaker 4: Professor.
22:13
Speaker 2: President Trump has claimed that Iran is begging to talk.
22:17
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any reason to take those claims seriously,
22:19
Speaker 2: but I am curious what the attitude within Iran, as
22:23
Speaker 2: far as you can glean towards negotiations and diplomacy is
22:26
Speaker 2: at this point.
22:29
Speaker 7: Well, we all know that he said he was saying
22:31
Speaker 7: this throughout this war. He's been saying it so many times.
22:34
Speaker 7: I don't know how many times exactly, but tens of times.
22:38
Speaker 7: And you know, in Iran, there's actually a different type
22:42
Speaker 7: of debate. There is a divide in Iran between those
22:46
Speaker 7: who think that the MoU is the right thing to
22:48
Speaker 7: do and those who said that we should not have
22:50
Speaker 7: signed the MoU and we should have just continued until
22:53
Speaker 7: things got worse for the United States. Both sides have
22:56
Speaker 7: an argument to make. I mean, those who were in
22:58
Speaker 7: favor of the MU, they said, well, we took advantage
23:01
Speaker 7: of the first few days. We exported tens of millions
23:03
Speaker 7: of battles of oil and imported critical supplies to prepare
23:09
Speaker 7: ourselves for the next phase because we knew that the
23:11
Speaker 7: United States would not abide by the MoU. And those
23:14
Speaker 7: who opposed it were saying, no, we should have continued.
23:17
Speaker 7: They were in bad shape and we should have just
23:19
Speaker 7: put more pressure on. The debate is not, let's this
23:24
Speaker 7: negotiate now.
23:25
Speaker 5: No one is saying that. So the debate today is.
23:31
Speaker 7: Both sides have arguments to make, and I'm not in
23:34
Speaker 7: any particular camp myself. I think both it's some I
23:37
Speaker 7: think both have good arguments to make. But the point
23:41
Speaker 7: is that the talk is whether we should have been
23:44
Speaker 7: hitting harder and being more assertive rather than pursuing the
23:51
Speaker 7: policy that we did in the past. No one now
23:54
Speaker 7: is talking about negotiations.
23:56
Speaker 3: Well, the curious thing, Sir I saw that you had
23:58
Speaker 3: said during the memorandum of understanding period, if you could
24:01
Speaker 3: say that there was some sort of understanding, is you
24:04
Speaker 3: were mimicking some of the rhetoric of our vice president,
24:07
Speaker 3: say that you were taking the opportunity to reload. So
24:10
Speaker 3: was this always the course of action that was in
24:14
Speaker 3: the minds of many of these Iranian leaders? And now
24:17
Speaker 3: that we are back in a phase where some hot
24:19
Speaker 3: war has resumed, what would it take to resume the
24:23
Speaker 3: memorandum of understanding?
24:27
Speaker 7: The Iranian leaders did not believe that the United States
24:30
Speaker 7: would abide by them or U and if they had,
24:34
Speaker 7: the Iranians would have fulfilled their side at the bargain.
24:37
Speaker 7: No doubt, the Iranian intention was there, and that's how
24:40
Speaker 7: it's been in the past with the JCPOA. That's how
24:44
Speaker 7: it was, and it would have been the same today.
24:49
Speaker 7: But the Iranians knew that these those who I know
24:53
Speaker 7: in the different political camps They all believed that the
24:56
Speaker 7: United States would not abide by its commitments, and it
24:58
Speaker 7: became pretty clear after three days. They did not hand
25:01
Speaker 7: over the stolen assets, They did not force Israeli regime
25:05
Speaker 7: to leave Lebanon. The Trump continued to threaten Iranian officials
25:09
Speaker 7: and the Iranian people, which is a violation of the deal.
25:11
Speaker 7: They expanded the sanctions regime, another violation. They removed the
25:15
Speaker 7: sanctions on oil exports, then reversed that after a few days,
25:19
Speaker 7: another violation. And of course they in violation of Article five.
25:24
Speaker 7: They went and set up their own parallel corridor and
25:28
Speaker 7: the Straight of Hormoses, because in Article five, Iran was
25:31
Speaker 7: supposed to manage the strait. So what the Americans were
25:35
Speaker 7: trying to do is to try to take control over
25:36
Speaker 7: the Straight, take away Iran's leverage, and then not carry
25:40
Speaker 7: out its obligations, and win a war that they could
25:43
Speaker 7: not win on the battlefield or through siege warfare. And
25:47
Speaker 7: then they bombed Iran when Iran ultimately, after a couple
25:50
Speaker 7: of weeks of warning the Saudis and the Martis and
25:53
Speaker 7: the Americans not to do this, Iranians finally struck three
25:57
Speaker 7: ships I think, and then the Americans wage war against
25:59
Speaker 7: the iran again another violation and reimpose the siege. So
26:03
Speaker 7: the Iranians knew that was happening, but the Iranian and
26:06
Speaker 7: the difference between Iran the United States was that the
26:08
Speaker 7: Iranians were willing to implement the deal, but not the Americans.
26:13
Speaker 7: But the Iranians, they took that opportunity to export a
26:17
Speaker 7: lot of oil and to import critical supplies to prepare
26:21
Speaker 7: them for the next phase. But I think that ultimately,
26:27
Speaker 7: if the United States the Iranians are not in the
26:30
Speaker 7: mood for negotiations, but if the United States wants to
26:33
Speaker 7: solve the problem, I think that the MoU it will
26:36
Speaker 7: not be enough freewom they will demand. They will demand
26:40
Speaker 7: that the United States first carries out certain things before
26:44
Speaker 7: the Iranians do anything. And they will also be explicit
26:48
Speaker 7: in including Yemen and Gaza and the negotiations. That's my
26:54
Speaker 7: that's my guess, too.
26:56
Speaker 4: Very interesting.
26:57
Speaker 2: Retire General Keith Callaghoe has held a variety of roles
27:00
Speaker 2: both in the first and the second Trump administrations, took
27:03
Speaker 2: to Fox News to push for a significant escalation.
27:07
Speaker 4: This is a seven guys, let's go ahead and play this.
27:10
Speaker 8: Here is a concern I do have for a ram
27:12
Speaker 8: though you have played sports. I've played sports, We've watched sports,
27:17
Speaker 8: and you let a team hang around, a baseball team
27:19
Speaker 8: in the ninth inning, or a football team in the
27:22
Speaker 8: fourth quarter, where were clearly the better team. You should
27:25
Speaker 8: have closed them out in the first quarter, not the fourth,
27:28
Speaker 8: or the first inning, not to ninth inning. And as
27:30
Speaker 8: longer they stick around, the more dangerous they become. And
27:33
Speaker 8: that's kind of where we're at right now. And I
27:35
Speaker 8: think the President's going to close it out. You should
27:36
Speaker 8: close it out. There's a few things he should do.
27:38
Speaker 8: I think one is on negotiations. Let's not negotiate. I'm
27:42
Speaker 8: not negotiating with these guys. We're going to dictate the
27:44
Speaker 8: terms of the war, and it is a war that's
27:47
Speaker 8: going on right now. We're going to keep taking out
27:49
Speaker 8: their leadership. The whole policy about decapitation, we need to
27:54
Speaker 8: continue that. If that means taking out Bahiti or a
27:58
Speaker 8: Ratchet or anybody else like that, that's fine because it
28:00
Speaker 8: destabilizes the regime. The other part, because it gives you leverage,
28:06
Speaker 8: is I would take the islands of carg Island and
28:08
Speaker 8: lo Rack Island, which is like it's further to these,
28:11
Speaker 8: but it's like the commanding control center of the Gulf,
28:15
Speaker 8: and you take them to give the president leverage. Now
28:17
Speaker 8: I own something you don't have anymore. We'll give it
28:21
Speaker 8: back to you at the end of this war if
28:23
Speaker 8: you need it or who're you going to keep it forever.
28:25
Speaker 8: The other thing I think we should be doing is, look,
28:27
Speaker 8: let's go and if it takes a presidential finding or
28:30
Speaker 8: something like that, let's start figuring out how we can
28:33
Speaker 8: help the Iranian people organize the resistance against the theocratic regime.
28:38
Speaker 2: So Professor Trump, in addition to that on Fox News,
28:42
Speaker 2: very influential in this particular individual, also very influential, Trump
28:45
Speaker 2: has directly said he plans to attack Pickaxe Mountain. I'm wondering,
28:48
Speaker 2: from your perspective within Iran, what people are sort of
28:51
Speaker 2: expecting Trump's next move to be.
28:55
Speaker 7: Well, first of all, I'd like to point out that
28:57
Speaker 7: I'm really surprised that he was a general. I fought
29:03
Speaker 7: in war, but I was just an ordinary volunteer and
29:06
Speaker 7: foot soldier. What strategic value would Park Island have? How
29:11
Speaker 7: is it a command and control center. It's a flat
29:14
Speaker 7: piece of land, which has I mean, right now, Iran
29:18
Speaker 7: is not exporting oil because there's a siege. So if
29:23
Speaker 7: they take it, there's it's a flat island, and the
29:26
Speaker 7: Iranians will just simply start hammering it day and night
29:29
Speaker 7: and kill the US troops. And so is that going
29:33
Speaker 7: to stop the Iran I mean, right now, Iran is
29:35
Speaker 7: striking US bases in Jordan if that's like a thousand
29:39
Speaker 7: kilometers away, or in the western Saudi Arabia. So why
29:42
Speaker 7: does Iran need to be standing alongside the shores of
29:46
Speaker 7: the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormos to block ships.
29:53
Speaker 7: This is not like the eighteenth century, It's not even
29:55
Speaker 7: the twentieth century. This is the twenty first century. It's
29:57
Speaker 7: the air of missiles and drones. Ryn can hit US
30:01
Speaker 7: bases and Jordan and destroy their key assets or in
30:06
Speaker 7: Sodi Arabia or elsewhere, Then what purpose would it have
30:09
Speaker 7: for them to carry out this sort of attack. I
30:12
Speaker 7: find it amazing that he ever became a general at all.
30:16
Speaker 7: But I think the most important thing here for me
30:20
Speaker 7: is that if this war expands. First of all, if
30:24
Speaker 7: the global economy collapses, that means the US economy will collapse,
30:29
Speaker 7: and I think that the United States will have to withdraw,
30:31
Speaker 7: not just from our region, but from across the globe.
30:34
Speaker 7: A global economic depression will mean that we will all
30:39
Speaker 7: lose job The jobs will be lost, businesses will collapse,
30:43
Speaker 7: factories will shut down, there won't be money insecurity everywhere.
30:47
Speaker 7: I don't think he quite comprehends what that means for
30:51
Speaker 7: the globe. Tens of millions of people, perhaps maybe hundreds
30:54
Speaker 7: of millions of people will be on the move. I mean, imagine,
30:57
Speaker 7: let's say Latin America, people losing their livelihoods where they're
31:02
Speaker 7: going to go. I mean, North America may not be
31:04
Speaker 7: any better, but people will still go to North America.
31:08
Speaker 7: It's sort of like the Grapes of Wrath, where people
31:11
Speaker 7: went to California. We moved towards California, even though things
31:16
Speaker 7: weren't all that great over there either. So I don't
31:19
Speaker 7: think they quite comprehend what that means. And there's another
31:22
Speaker 7: factor as well. Yemen is now in the fight. The
31:26
Speaker 7: resistance in Iraq is larger than the resistance in Lebanon.
31:31
Speaker 7: They have at least one hundred and fifty thousand, maybe
31:34
Speaker 7: two hundred thousand people right now prepared to fight, and
31:37
Speaker 7: they're well armed. So you have Iran, you have the
31:40
Speaker 7: resistance in Iraq, you have Yemen. Who does the United
31:44
Speaker 7: States have?
31:46
Speaker 5: It has?
31:46
Speaker 7: Like what Bahrain it has the Emirates, I mean do
31:50
Speaker 7: they even have a fighting force? And now Soaudi Arabia
31:53
Speaker 7: is they can't export oil. These are countries that are
31:56
Speaker 7: literally almost one hundred percent dependent on oil or gas.
32:02
Speaker 5: They're deserts and if.
32:04
Speaker 7: Their critical infrastructure is destroyed then tens of millions of
32:07
Speaker 7: people will have to leave the Arabian peninsula. Again, I
32:11
Speaker 7: don't think he quite understands what an all out war means.
32:16
Speaker 7: And they already tried that anyway with Iran decapit. I mean,
32:19
Speaker 7: you can't get higher than Ayato Lahaminad.
32:22
Speaker 5: They marched him nothing.
32:24
Speaker 7: We didn't have a leader for two weeks because the
32:27
Speaker 7: assembly that chooses the leader in accordance with the constitution
32:30
Speaker 7: couldn't gather together for two weeks because of the strikes.
32:34
Speaker 7: So for two weeks we didn't have a leader. We
32:36
Speaker 7: had a council in accordance with the constitution, you know.
32:40
Speaker 7: But still they fought back. The streets were being cleaned
32:44
Speaker 7: at nights, people were going to the supermarkets. No one
32:48
Speaker 7: emptied the shelves of supermarkets. So why does he even think
32:54
Speaker 7: that if they try that again it's going to succeed.
32:56
Speaker 7: The only difference is that if they go after Iran's
32:59
Speaker 7: critical infrastructure this time round, Iran is going to do
33:02
Speaker 7: the same and we are going to literally be living
33:05
Speaker 7: in a completely different world if that happens.
33:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, Professor Morondi, we really appreciate your time.
33:12
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us.
33:13
Speaker 5: Sir, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me.
33:19
Speaker 3: Turning now to the Pentagon, which is currently shaking down
33:22
Speaker 3: the American taxpayer for.
33:23
Speaker 1: Some one point five trillion dollars.
33:26
Speaker 3: Secretary of War Pete Hegsath went before Congress and said
33:30
Speaker 3: that the greatest national security threat America faces if he
33:34
Speaker 3: doesn't get his outrageous budget.
33:36
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
33:37
Speaker 9: As I have said before, not fully funding this department,
33:41
Speaker 9: the Department of War, and we know what that means.
33:45
Speaker 9: That that means one point five trillion. Given the world
33:48
Speaker 9: that we live in and the disaster of what the
33:50
Speaker 9: Biden administration budgets gave us, not funding this department at
33:53
Speaker 9: one point five trillion, I believe is the greatest threat
33:56
Speaker 9: that our nation faces.
33:58
Speaker 3: The greatest threat our nation faces is an extra five
34:01
Speaker 3: hundred billion dollars which they didn't originally need and made
34:05
Speaker 3: up a number out of completely whole cloth. This comes
34:08
Speaker 3: as the Pentagon Act. This part is real, actually is
34:11
Speaker 3: running out of money because of the Iran War. They
34:14
Speaker 3: are almost one hundred percent lying to us about the cost.
34:17
Speaker 3: And I'll break that down just here in a moment.
34:19
Speaker 3: But one of the funny things is I've been reading
34:21
Speaker 3: a ton of the stuff behind the scenes the lawmakers.
34:24
Speaker 3: They've been bringing the lawmakers to the Pentagon for four
34:27
Speaker 3: to six hour meetings where they have chips and dip
34:30
Speaker 3: and AI powered power points and they're just walking them
34:33
Speaker 3: through why they need all this money. And even the
34:35
Speaker 3: Republicans are.
34:36
Speaker 1: Like, I just don't get it. They're like, where is
34:38
Speaker 1: the money going?
34:39
Speaker 2: And so the money and the Pentagon doesn't know either,
34:42
Speaker 2: and they don't know it's all the same.
34:44
Speaker 1: It's complete exactly.
34:45
Speaker 3: So first of all, they've a passing on it in
34:47
Speaker 3: five years. But the thing is is it's entirely a
34:49
Speaker 3: slush fund basically, either for the Iran war or the
34:53
Speaker 3: whatever pet projects you know that these Trump people have
34:56
Speaker 3: got going on in the background for drones or all
34:59
Speaker 3: kinds of these boondoggles that they have, they have no
35:02
Speaker 3: zero justification. And if you look and I have, I've
35:05
Speaker 3: brought many of these up in the past. Of these
35:07
Speaker 3: past projects, of the promised funding, I brought it up
35:10
Speaker 3: in our last show, five hundred million dollars to produce
35:13
Speaker 3: these new one hundred or the to reproduce these one
35:16
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty five millimeters shells which were all given
35:18
Speaker 3: to Ukraine.
35:19
Speaker 1: And it's like oops.
35:20
Speaker 3: In the four years so the almost the entirety of
35:22
Speaker 3: the United States experience in World War Two before we
35:25
Speaker 3: appropriated that money to today, not a single shell has
35:28
Speaker 3: rolled off of the assembly line. Five hundred million, five
35:30
Speaker 3: hundred million, it's gone. So how did that happen? Nobody
35:34
Speaker 3: can actually tell you why they have. Basically, they bought
35:36
Speaker 3: the wrong part or they made the wrong bet.
35:38
Speaker 1: I'm like, you couldn't have.
35:39
Speaker 3: Fixed it like two years ago, three years ago, and
35:41
Speaker 3: then the Army's like, don't worry about it, will eventually
35:44
Speaker 3: we'll get it.
35:44
Speaker 1: There are all kinds of these types of reports.
35:46
Speaker 3: And at the same time that they're shaking us down
35:48
Speaker 3: for one point five trillion, the Pentagon is also stop
35:52
Speaker 3: releasing the f thirty five report, which is due every
35:55
Speaker 3: single year to Congress, right, so they're covering that up.
35:58
Speaker 3: Whatever happened with that F thirty five over Iran as
36:01
Speaker 3: well as the one that got clipped by the WHO.
36:03
Speaker 3: These they are stopping the release of all of these
36:07
Speaker 3: normal reports which are congressionally mandated by Congress, so that
36:11
Speaker 3: the public can figure this out, and then telling us
36:14
Speaker 3: with a straight face, if we don't get this one
36:16
Speaker 3: point five trillion, then this is the greatest threat that
36:19
Speaker 3: our country faces. It's insanity how this has been normalized.
36:24
Speaker 2: Ken Klippenstein has a piece up to put all of
36:26
Speaker 2: this into perspective, and he says that all of World
36:30
Speaker 2: War Two, all of it from nineteen forty one to
36:32
Speaker 2: nineteen forty five, cost the US an estimated four point
36:35
Speaker 2: five trillion in today's inflation adjusted dollars. Hegseth wants to
36:39
Speaker 2: spend even more than that over the next four years.
36:42
Speaker 2: He is asking for more money than we spent in
36:45
Speaker 2: all of World War Two. If you want another comparison,
36:49
Speaker 2: let's take a look at how much does Iran spend
36:52
Speaker 2: for their military seven point four billion. And we brought
36:57
Speaker 2: you earlier this week that Washington Post report where military
37:00
Speaker 2: analysts were saying, hey, we're running low on basically everything.
37:03
Speaker 2: We cannot safely sustain this pace at all. It's not
37:07
Speaker 2: just you know, it's not just certain categories missile interceptors
37:10
Speaker 2: or whatever that we're running low on. We actually are
37:12
Speaker 2: running low on everything. We cannot continue in this direction.
37:15
Speaker 2: And the White House is maybe not aware of what's
37:17
Speaker 2: going on here. I think any American has to look
37:20
Speaker 2: at this and be like, what are you doing? What
37:23
Speaker 2: is this money going towards at a time when you know,
37:26
Speaker 2: this administration and a lot of fanfare at the beginning
37:28
Speaker 2: about DOJ. You know, we got to cut the debt
37:29
Speaker 2: and the deficit, and we're spending way too much money.
37:32
Speaker 2: And then you'll just casually go in and demand one
37:34
Speaker 2: point five trilligan dollars and say it's the greatest threat
37:37
Speaker 2: to the country if we don't fork it over.
37:40
Speaker 4: No for a war that.
37:41
Speaker 2: We don't even want to be in. I mean, it's
37:42
Speaker 2: complete and utter insanity. And so of course members of
37:45
Speaker 2: Congress actually, I mean certainly Democrats, but Republicans are feeling
37:48
Speaker 2: some pressure on this too, as Tea comes out, you know,
37:52
Speaker 2: hat in hand begging for more billions to fund something
37:55
Speaker 2: that no one wanted in the first place.
37:56
Speaker 3: Right, and actually, just I'm going to show everybody Pentagon math.
37:59
Speaker 3: So here's how on what the cost of the Iran
38:01
Speaker 3: war is? He says, thirty seven point five billion. Then
38:03
Speaker 3: I'll show you what it actually costs. Let's take a lesson.
38:05
Speaker 10: I've been listening patiently while you made your presentation. You
38:09
Speaker 10: estimated at one point that the cost of the war
38:11
Speaker 10: in Iran was twenty nine billion dollars, but then added
38:17
Speaker 10: a caveat that there was a replacement of the munitions
38:19
Speaker 10: for example. Do you have a new estimate about what
38:21
Speaker 10: the war has cost us so far in this the
38:24
Speaker 10: fifth month of the first year of this war in.
38:26
Speaker 9: Iran, Senator, The estimate we have as of today's thirty
38:30
Speaker 9: seven point five billion, and it's the.
38:33
Speaker 10: Current activity which we've been told about, the exchange of
38:36
Speaker 10: fire back and forth in Iran, an indication that number
38:40
Speaker 10: is going to go up in the months ahead.
38:43
Speaker 9: Some of that number captures additional O and M mill
38:46
Speaker 9: pay an other that would be anticipate through the fiscal year,
38:48
Speaker 9: So some of that anticipates what cost would be going
38:50
Speaker 9: out in the future as well.
38:51
Speaker 10: So the new number you've given me is what.
38:55
Speaker 9: Thirty seven point five billion, and.
38:57
Speaker 10: That represents the cost of the war through what period
38:59
Speaker 10: of time.
39:01
Speaker 9: Through now for certain aspects of it, but also millpay
39:05
Speaker 9: o and m other anticipated costs through September thirtieth.
39:09
Speaker 3: Senator, all right, thirty seven point five billion. That's Pentagon math.
39:13
Speaker 3: Now let's look at actual math. Let's put this one
39:15
Speaker 3: up here on the screen. The real cost is somewhere
39:18
Speaker 3: around one hundred billion. And by the way, even that
39:21
Speaker 3: is a little bit.
39:21
Speaker 1: Of a low ball.
39:22
Speaker 3: So how exactly does the Pentagon you know, secretary go
39:26
Speaker 3: before Congress and say under oath that it's thirty seven
39:29
Speaker 3: point five billion. Well, you actually kind of heard it
39:32
Speaker 3: in his response is not counting munitions and replacement costs,
39:37
Speaker 3: which is kind of an insane way to actually count it.
39:40
Speaker 3: And if anything says that just operating costs absent of
39:44
Speaker 3: what was shot is thirty seven point five billion, should
39:46
Speaker 3: get everybody a heart attack.
39:48
Speaker 1: If the real cost is one hundred billion.
39:50
Speaker 3: I just want to put this into perspective for everybody.
39:52
Speaker 3: For the twenty years that the United States spent trying
39:56
Speaker 3: to rebuild the Afghan national security forces, twenty years, we
40:00
Speaker 3: all remember what that project was like, the total cost
40:03
Speaker 3: of that operation was one hundred billion dollars, So one
40:07
Speaker 3: hundred billion spent in one hundred days versus twenty years.
40:11
Speaker 3: That's how much more efficient we've become at throwing away money.
40:14
Speaker 3: And where did the money go exactly? We can actually
40:17
Speaker 3: see that they're flat going broke because of the way
40:21
Speaker 3: that the budget is allocated. So let's put the next
40:24
Speaker 3: one up here on the screen, and this again shows
40:26
Speaker 3: you why they're so desperate for this, For this one
40:29
Speaker 3: point five trillion dollar cash injection. The Pentagon faces a
40:33
Speaker 3: urgent budget for shortfall because of the Iran War. Already,
40:38
Speaker 3: they are limiting training and maintenance that help maintain military readiness.
40:42
Speaker 3: They continue to short several other critical departments of the Pentagon.
40:46
Speaker 3: The White House has now asked for an immediate infusion
40:49
Speaker 3: of sixty seven billion. Remember that's thirty billion more than
40:53
Speaker 3: pet Tex. Has just said that the Iran war costs,
40:56
Speaker 3: just to help cover some of the costs. If you
40:58
Speaker 3: continue to actually look at where some of this stuff
41:01
Speaker 3: is going, you could see that it comes largely from
41:04
Speaker 3: air strikes, It comes from replacement of munitions, It comes
41:08
Speaker 3: also from the operating costs of all of these different
41:11
Speaker 3: aircraft carriers, these strike groups, the forward deployment, the amount
41:16
Speaker 3: of resources and overtime and other things that they have
41:19
Speaker 3: to pay over here. This is just the direct cost
41:23
Speaker 3: of the war itself. This doesn't even factor in munition replacement.
41:27
Speaker 3: And that's with the one hundred billion, yeah, that figure
41:30
Speaker 3: that I'm talking about. So the real cost is probably
41:32
Speaker 3: two to three hundred billion, yeah, which is insane. I mean,
41:34
Speaker 3: that is so categorically nuts. At the time when I
41:38
Speaker 3: covered Afghanistan, I was like, this is more than we
41:40
Speaker 3: spent in Vietnam, And somehow we've blown out the Vietnam
41:44
Speaker 3: budget in one hundred days. Think about that was five
41:46
Speaker 3: hundred thousand American troops were there, and all the other
41:49
Speaker 3: insanity that we're doing. To be clear, I'm just talking
41:51
Speaker 3: specifically about the Afghan national security costs. But if you
41:54
Speaker 3: want to put a rock into that too, four trillion. Again,
41:57
Speaker 3: it took sixteen seventeen years. I mean, we're on track
42:00
Speaker 3: already and we don't even have any troops that are
42:01
Speaker 3: on the ground.
42:02
Speaker 1: I mean, imagine what that will cost.
42:03
Speaker 2: And it also doesn't take into account rebuilding the bases
42:06
Speaker 2: that have been obliterated.
42:08
Speaker 4: But those bases may never be rebuilt.
42:09
Speaker 2: I mean, there may be no reason to go back
42:12
Speaker 2: to the Clearly the basing strategy is completely failed. I
42:15
Speaker 2: don't know that those countries are gonna be super excited
42:17
Speaker 2: about us going back in and rebuilding and setting up
42:19
Speaker 2: shop after all of this, whenever all of this is over.
42:22
Speaker 2: But yeah, you just look at it and you're like,
42:24
Speaker 2: where is the money going? Like what are you actually
42:27
Speaker 2: You're out of everything, You're having to skimp on training
42:30
Speaker 2: and maintenance, and you're begging for more billions. Like what
42:34
Speaker 2: is actually happening here? I genuinely don't understand. And by
42:37
Speaker 2: the way, they don't really understand either because they can't
42:40
Speaker 2: pass an audit, so they don't know where the money
42:42
Speaker 2: is coming from, you know, going to either Ryan made
42:45
Speaker 2: a good point. He's like, how do you know you're
42:46
Speaker 2: out of money when you can't even do your own audit?
42:48
Speaker 4: Like how does that even work?
42:50
Speaker 3: No, what happens is you check the bank account and
42:52
Speaker 3: you see that it's low, but you don't know where
42:54
Speaker 3: it all went.
42:54
Speaker 1: I mean, where's small business? I can't even run shit?
42:56
Speaker 1: Like can you know they're the government?
42:58
Speaker 5: Yeah?
42:58
Speaker 2: Meanwhile it's like, oh, well need am but you know
43:01
Speaker 2: that'll take years, and we're low on this and that
43:03
Speaker 2: radar system is defunct, and.
43:06
Speaker 4: What has happened.
43:06
Speaker 2: I mean, it really speaks to the way that we
43:09
Speaker 2: have outsourced all of this to these grifting military industrial
43:14
Speaker 2: complex defense contractors. They jack up the price on everything.
43:18
Speaker 2: We're completely beholden to them. There's an absolute revolving door
43:22
Speaker 2: between the Pentagon and between industry. No one has any
43:25
Speaker 2: incentive to do anything intelligently or any cost effective way. Meanwhile,
43:30
Speaker 2: iron is churning out their Shaha drones at low cost,
43:34
Speaker 2: like there's no tomorrow. They actually, as a middle income country,
43:38
Speaker 2: have maintained their industrial base, so they're able to do
43:40
Speaker 2: that and spin up production.
43:42
Speaker 4: No problem.
43:43
Speaker 2: Here we are the supposed superpower, and there's no equivalent
43:48
Speaker 2: ability to you know, turn flip a switch and in
43:51
Speaker 2: anything approaching a cost effective manner spin these things up.
43:54
Speaker 2: So it's I mean, it's just a complete indictment of
43:57
Speaker 2: the entire system that.
43:58
Speaker 4: We have constructed.
44:00
Speaker 2: And Rubio has the gall to come out and be like, oh,
44:03
Speaker 2: the Iranians are spending all their money on their military rather.
44:07
Speaker 4: Than helping their people.
44:08
Speaker 2: First of all, we're attacking them, so they're under existential threat.
44:12
Speaker 2: I imagine their people right now are quite an understanding
44:14
Speaker 2: of why the military budget needs to be upped a
44:16
Speaker 2: little bit while they're directly at war with US and
44:18
Speaker 2: with Israel and by the way, everybody else in the region,
44:22
Speaker 2: who you know these attacks are being launched from. Second
44:24
Speaker 2: of all, look at our country. Trump literally came out
44:27
Speaker 2: and said, well, we can't have nice things because we
44:29
Speaker 2: got to spend all this money on our military. Like,
44:32
Speaker 2: this is what you're doing, one point five trillion, and
44:34
Speaker 2: it's the greatest threat to our country. If we don't
44:36
Speaker 2: hand all of that overti.
44:37
Speaker 1: And one point or a trillion for what what will
44:39
Speaker 1: it get us? Right?
44:40
Speaker 3: Communitions, because that's what they always say, more money. Where's
44:43
Speaker 3: the bullets? The bullets don't exist. It's like, where's the
44:46
Speaker 3: Tomahawk missiles? Oh, that'll be six years. Sorry, didn't remember
44:50
Speaker 3: I covered the story how Japan. So we went to
44:52
Speaker 3: Japan and we shook them down. We're like, hey, you
44:54
Speaker 3: guys got to buy some tomahawks. The Japanese are like, okay,
44:56
Speaker 3: we'll buy some. Here's our money, here's the order. And
44:59
Speaker 3: then you know what happened. We launched the Iran War
45:01
Speaker 3: and we're like, yeah, you're gonna have to wait a
45:02
Speaker 3: few years for those Tomahawk missiles if they come at
45:05
Speaker 3: all sometime in the future. That's a one minuscule example.
45:09
Speaker 3: And this whole supply chain, it's a nightmare. From the
45:12
Speaker 3: Tomahawk missiles. I was talking to you guys privately about
45:14
Speaker 3: gun cotton. There's one one factory in the whole United
45:18
Speaker 3: States makes guncotton. It's one of the most critical inputs
45:21
Speaker 3: for these artillery sheds. One it's in Radford, Virginia. If
45:24
Speaker 3: it goes on fire, which is literally a highly flammable substance,
45:27
Speaker 3: good luck, we're out. And so is half a NATO,
45:29
Speaker 3: where they import forty something percent of their gun cotton
45:31
Speaker 3: also comes from that same factory.
45:33
Speaker 1: What are we gonna do?
45:34
Speaker 3: And there's no modernization, there's no actual like efficiency. You're
45:38
Speaker 3: talking about the shot head drone and cost twenty thousand
45:40
Speaker 3: to one hundred thousand a pop. Something like these Tomawk
45:42
Speaker 3: missiles four five million, you know, and they have to
45:44
Speaker 3: be built at one factory in Arizona. Where is the
45:48
Speaker 3: money going for what purpose? And how like no other
45:51
Speaker 3: And not to say government is a business, but the
45:54
Speaker 3: sheer like even attempt at trying to have some level
45:58
Speaker 3: of efficiency. And then if you're going to say that
46:00
Speaker 3: we're running like the government, we should make it hardened
46:03
Speaker 3: as in not very vulnerable to potential disasters or problems
46:07
Speaker 3: like a fire. I don't know at one factory, which
46:09
Speaker 3: is deeply critical. If they don't even do that, you know,
46:12
Speaker 3: all they're doing is covering up all of the problems
46:14
Speaker 3: that exist in these gigantic boondoggles, and all of us
46:18
Speaker 3: are the ones who are paying for the It only
46:20
Speaker 3: goes exponential in terms of the cost.
46:22
Speaker 1: That's what's so staggering.
46:23
Speaker 3: When you compare the Afghan conflict to this one, You're like,
46:26
Speaker 3: how did you how did you accomplish the boondoggle that
46:29
Speaker 3: we all saw in the withdrawal in just one hundred
46:32
Speaker 3: day period.
46:32
Speaker 1: It's genuinely stunning.
46:35
Speaker 2: One Tomahawk missile, single missile, eighteen to twenty four months
46:39
Speaker 2: from the moment.
46:40
Speaker 4: Trying to say two years.
46:41
Speaker 3: People who listen like they think I'm exaggerating, If anything,
46:45
Speaker 3: I'm underplaying it, like you need to go all of this,
46:48
Speaker 3: this is what they're trying to do.
46:50
Speaker 1: They're actually stopping.
46:51
Speaker 3: Like I said earlier, the release of these open source
46:54
Speaker 3: documents on Fadye on Tomahawk. People accuse me of saying,
46:58
Speaker 3: how would you know the stockpile?
47:00
Speaker 5: I go.
47:00
Speaker 3: Luckily, we actually have Congress which is mandated. You just
47:03
Speaker 3: have to release the report. You don't know the exact number,
47:06
Speaker 3: but based on a general estimate, you can do plus
47:08
Speaker 3: or minus five to ten percent.
47:10
Speaker 1: We actually do know a lot of this.
47:11
Speaker 3: Stuff has been highlighted in the open source environment. So yeah,
47:15
Speaker 3: almost sixty to eighty percent of the thads are gone gone.
47:19
Speaker 3: I mean it will take five years at a minimum
47:21
Speaker 3: just to replace that. And we continue to fire today.
47:24
Speaker 3: I mean the actual cost of one actual costs estmen
47:26
Speaker 3: of the first sixty days of the war was eighty
47:28
Speaker 3: two billion.
47:29
Speaker 1: That was forty days ago.
47:30
Speaker 3: You know, it's like when you start to put all
47:32
Speaker 3: this stuff together, it's nuts. There's no accountability in our government.
47:36
Speaker 3: And just to you know, continue this here we have
47:40
Speaker 3: Mike Waltz getting grilled by Ted lu who is you know,
47:44
Speaker 3: also trying to underplay the amount of people who've now
47:47
Speaker 3: been killed in the Iran War.
47:49
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
47:50
Speaker 11: How many American troops have been killed in the Ran
47:54
Speaker 11: war in these ongoing operations?
47:57
Speaker 5: Eighteen?
47:57
Speaker 11: Okay, now, President Trump has pealy stated that Iran's military
48:02
Speaker 11: was obliterated. On March sixteenth, President Trump stated that Iran's
48:08
Speaker 11: military was quote literally obliterated end quote. How is it
48:13
Speaker 11: possible that four hundred and eighty two American strewers have
48:17
Speaker 11: been wounded and eighteen service members killed by an Iranian
48:24
Speaker 11: military that's been purportedly obliterated. The Iranian Navy, air Force,
48:31
Speaker 11: air defense system, and industrial capacity have been massively damaged,
48:37
Speaker 11: if not completely ineffective. But this is a state that
48:41
Speaker 11: is trying to reconstitute. This is a state a regime
48:44
Speaker 11: that is obsessed with the nuclear weapon, and it's a
48:46
Speaker 11: regime that still maintains some missile and drone capability that
48:50
Speaker 11: it's firing on all of its neighbors, including our basis.
48:55
Speaker 11: I think that's a pretty common sense evaluation. But if
48:58
Speaker 11: I need to explain it to you further, I can
49:01
Speaker 11: you need to explain to American people how any run
49:04
Speaker 11: and military that's been purportedly obliterated killed eighteen year service
49:09
Speaker 11: members and wounded for me eighty as you know, let
49:13
Speaker 11: me finished.
49:15
Speaker 1: So there you go.
49:16
Speaker 3: Died in a plane crash. They died in a plane crash.
49:19
Speaker 3: First of all, that plane crash. Yeah, there's a lot
49:21
Speaker 3: of questions about that one in terms of what they claim.
49:24
Speaker 1: Also, where are those pilots? Anybody's seen them? Here are pilots?
49:28
Speaker 4: Weird?
49:29
Speaker 2: In a few months, you know, there was there was
49:31
Speaker 2: another hot exchange between them where lou asked him, you
49:34
Speaker 2: know how many US troops have been wounded in Iran?
49:36
Speaker 2: And Walt it's like maybe around one hundred. It's like, no,
49:39
Speaker 2: it's four hundred and eighty two. How do you not
49:42
Speaker 2: know that? And I mean it is It is utterly disgraceful,
49:45
Speaker 2: And so obviously he's getting caught there in the fact
49:48
Speaker 2: that Trump is constantly making these grandiose pronouncements about how
49:52
Speaker 2: they're obliterated and we won the war, and their nuclear
49:54
Speaker 2: program is obliterated and all of these things. Well, if
49:56
Speaker 2: the nuclear programs obliterated, why are we now getting all
49:58
Speaker 2: this propaganda about Pick Mountain? If the nuclear program was obliterated,
50:02
Speaker 2: why did we do this war in the first place.
50:04
Speaker 2: If the Irani military's obliterated, how are they still able
50:07
Speaker 2: to kill our service members, take on our radars, and
50:09
Speaker 2: redestruction across the entire region. So, you know, sometimes sometimes
50:13
Speaker 2: Trump's lies do meet with reality in a way that
50:16
Speaker 2: becomes somewhat undeniable.
50:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's very true.
50:18
Speaker 3: And last thing, I just want to flag this for everybody,
50:20
Speaker 3: B six, This would be an insane thing, and it
50:23
Speaker 3: looks like it's going to happen. Trump is now saying
50:26
Speaker 3: that Republicans should add Iran to the Russia sanctions bill.
50:30
Speaker 3: For those who of you who don't know, the entire
50:32
Speaker 3: Congress is currently united in honoring Lindsay Graham by putting
50:36
Speaker 3: these massive sanctions on the Russian economy, so called secondary sanctions,
50:40
Speaker 3: and now they want to add Iran, per Trump, and
50:43
Speaker 3: in the honor of the great Lindsay Graham, who would
50:46
Speaker 3: have wanted this. So what this piece of legislation would
50:49
Speaker 3: do is it would be even more of an economic
50:52
Speaker 3: declaration of war on the Russian economy. You can you know,
50:56
Speaker 3: support that, not support that, I can tell you it
50:58
Speaker 3: all certainly will continue to send price is higher because
51:01
Speaker 3: that's the way that they're mostly funding their economy. And
51:04
Speaker 3: it also in terms of the Iranian economy. It would
51:06
Speaker 3: also give Trump massive presidential and discretionary power to use
51:11
Speaker 3: the same type of national security authority he originally imposed
51:14
Speaker 3: his original Tarissan so it's not really just about Russia,
51:16
Speaker 3: and it's not just about Iran. Really, what they're doing
51:19
Speaker 3: is passing one of the most neoconservative pieces of legislation
51:21
Speaker 3: ever forward in the name of national security or Ukrainian
51:26
Speaker 3: democracy or whatever, adding Iran in there, and it would
51:30
Speaker 3: absolutely cripple even more of the black market oil which
51:34
Speaker 3: is currently on the market. You may say that, oh,
51:36
Speaker 3: that's a good thing, but of course, coming at this
51:39
Speaker 3: current time, it gives Trump more extraordinary powers and would
51:42
Speaker 3: further hurt actually and probably drive oil prices even higher.
51:46
Speaker 3: So if that's something that you want, then I guess
51:48
Speaker 3: that's something that you should support. So that was the
51:51
Speaker 3: last thing I just wanted to put on everybody's radar.
51:52
Speaker 3: It's very, very underplayed in Washington because the whole neocon
51:56
Speaker 3: media supports it. But it's a terrible piece of legislation
52:00
Speaker 3: that they didn't want to pass originally because they knew
52:02
Speaker 3: it would genuinely leave us no negotiating options whenever it
52:06
Speaker 3: came to the Kremlin. And yet, of course, in honor
52:08
Speaker 3: of lindsay, that's what we all have to do, all right,
52:10
Speaker 3: Let's get to the polls.