Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Fear & Greed Index RECORD, Google Trends Shocking Data, Technical Analysis Recap

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Crypto Rundown: Fear & Greed Index RECORD, Google Trends Shocking Data, Technical Analysis Recap · CRYPTO 101

0:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Alright everyone, welcome back to the crypto rundown sponsored by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money.
0:16
[SPEAKER_03]: We hope everyone is having a fantastic week so far.
0:19
[SPEAKER_03]: A lot of volatility in the crypto market, but that's why we're here in the first place.
0:23
[SPEAKER_03]: We're here to talk about everything from the fundamentals and the news to the technicals on the charts so that you all can know everything that's going on.
0:30
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0:33
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0:43
[SPEAKER_03]: We're constantly doing different run-downs with our different analysts,
0:46
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0:51
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0:52
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0:57
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0:59
[SPEAKER_03]: But maybe we got an action pack episode in store for all of you today.
1:03
[SPEAKER_03]: Join by my good old compadry over here, Mr. Tevo and Tevo.
1:08
[SPEAKER_03]: We're warming up to this bear market.
1:10
[SPEAKER_03]: We're growing stronger.
1:12
[SPEAKER_03]: How are you feeling?
1:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, man, exciting.
1:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a good Friday.
1:17
[SPEAKER_02]: The prices aren't where we necessarily wish and hope they'd be, but the vibes are really high here at Crypto 101.
1:23
[SPEAKER_02]: We've had a great week of episodes, honestly dating back to last Friday with the entire team.
1:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Brian and I did one earlier this week.
1:30
[SPEAKER_02]: We got you here this week.
1:32
[SPEAKER_02]: And honestly, the news folks keeps coming.
1:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Like there's a lot to talk about.
1:36
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot to break down.
1:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it's a great digestion period.
1:40
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's easy enough to kind of jump right into it this week was interesting in the sense that we we hit record lows for some of the fear and greed index indexes across crypto.
1:53
[SPEAKER_02]: So we'll pull up we'll pull up both when we'll start here at the alternative one got all the way down to a five.
2:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Did you feel, did you feel like it was a five?
2:03
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, look at that last month, neutral 48, just absolutely, we've been in extreme fear now for a week plus, and then if you scroll down here, you can kind of see the historical, we're at one year lows, because I mean, we've gotten down to, you know, man, back in all the other different bear markets, we've experienced all the way dating back to 2018.
2:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you feel like honest I'm going to put you on the couch little psychiatry.
2:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you feel.
2:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you feel that.
2:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Do you feel that extreme fear?
2:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I feel extreme fear.
2:39
[SPEAKER_03]: I do feel that.
2:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Does it feel like it should be the lowest fear and greed index reading that we have ever seen in all of history on crypto?
2:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say no.
2:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, I think it's correct to label us and put us in that extreme fear category.
2:55
[SPEAKER_03]: It's understandable.
2:56
[SPEAKER_03]: The liquidations keep happening.
2:58
[SPEAKER_03]: There's fun around all these different areas.
3:00
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, we talked about it.
3:01
[SPEAKER_03]: We had a whole rundown episode on it last Friday.
3:03
[SPEAKER_03]: But should we be at the lowest level of extreme fear and all of Bitcoin and crypto's history?
3:11
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think so.
3:12
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that if you look at it and that was like a big point I tried to make last Friday was look at the fundamentals and then look at the technicals and I just don't think they properly reflect each other.
3:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Whereas in prior crashes, you could have easily said, okay, it's more understandable that we are this low that we've seen this much drawdown that we're this deep on the fear and greed index.
3:36
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, let's just look at a couple of those past examples.
3:39
[SPEAKER_03]: The tariff crash makes sense.
3:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Big fears towards anything that's risk gone.
3:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Understandable.
3:45
[SPEAKER_03]: The Japanese carry on winding about, you know, what a year and a half ago, you know, even more than that.
3:51
[SPEAKER_03]: Understandable, right?
3:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Huge part of the world's economy runs through that trade.
3:56
[SPEAKER_03]: People wanting to be more risk off because of the uncertainty.
3:59
[SPEAKER_03]: FTX blowing up.
4:00
[SPEAKER_03]: COVID crash, the whole world shut down, Alameda crash, Taro Luna crash, you name it.
4:09
[SPEAKER_03]: These massive, unwind events, where it's like, okay, it's understandable.
4:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you look at it, and then you also have like record levels of lower activity and all these other things, blowing up,
4:21
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you look at it and either some of the stats that we showed in last Friday's rundown was saying Bitcoin doing more transactions than MasterCard and Visa, almost more than both of those two combined and more dollars transacted than either one individually, a theory of hitting all-time high active users,
4:38
[SPEAKER_03]: or daily users all-time high transaction counts, gas fees under one cent, Solana breaking records, hyper-liquid breaking records, like all these statistics on the fundamental side, and then it's like massive crypto infrastructure is in the works, all these different things, the government's for it, the SEC's for it.
4:55
[SPEAKER_03]: It's being talked about all over Davos by all the biggest asset managers in banks on the planet, and then you just look at it from the fundamental side this side, this time around and you're like,
5:05
[SPEAKER_03]: should this be at the lowest point of fear that it has ever been with all that in mind and I have a hard time justifying that and I think that what we've seen here is crypto become oversold because of panic selling and not because of what is actually reflected through the fundamentals and then the other half of this
5:27
[SPEAKER_03]: Is that for everyone that's wondering like what's the deal with these liquidation events?
5:32
[SPEAKER_03]: Right now, you know, the liquidations events are real.
5:34
[SPEAKER_03]: They're pure selling pressure.
5:36
[SPEAKER_03]: However, the original one, the original liquidation event of 10-10 October 10th, that one was not
5:44
[SPEAKER_03]: true.
5:44
[SPEAKER_03]: It was not a true reflection of selling pressure.
5:47
[SPEAKER_03]: Meaning that it was artificially caused.
5:50
[SPEAKER_03]: We talked about this a lot, so I don't want to go too deep into it to you, though.
5:53
[SPEAKER_03]: But for a quick little reminder, what happened was Binance had a kind of like back end systems error where it devalued how much the US dollar was worth, specifically stablecoins like
6:07
[SPEAKER_03]: And it said, OK, well, like, let us change the value of this or the value of it changed from a dollar all the way down to like 50 or 60 cents at its lowest.
6:15
[SPEAKER_03]: And so every perpetual contract, all these leverage contracts that are measured against, you know, what the dollar is worth or what these stable coins are worth.
6:24
[SPEAKER_03]: That throws all them off.
6:26
[SPEAKER_03]: It starts mass liquidating everyone.
6:27
[SPEAKER_03]: It starts a snowball effect.
6:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, and essentially they had this massive drawdown that wiped out all of the lungs and it wasn't necessarily because of pure selling pressure, but because of systems errors, but nonetheless all those people got liquidated, um, and that was the huge thing that started this all.
6:46
[SPEAKER_03]: So.
6:47
[SPEAKER_03]: To answer your main point, as I'll hand it back to you, I don't think it makes sense for us to be the most over, and I even know we're sold.
6:57
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I think you could say we're sold, right?
6:58
[SPEAKER_03]: RSI, second lowest point, it's ever been.
7:00
[SPEAKER_03]: Mac, D, lowest point, it's ever been, both on the one-day times, skills.
7:04
[SPEAKER_03]: If you're in greed index, right along side, that lowest point it's ever been.
7:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Is it worthy of that kind of fear?
7:12
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say it's worth being an extreme fear or deep in the fear territory.
7:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Lowest point, that's where I disagree.
7:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I actually agree with you totally.
7:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's from more of a psychological exercise.
7:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I can see how we get there because of all, you know, it kind of felt going into the election cycle back from the Nikai trade.
7:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it was the August, brought us back into the 50s.
7:39
[SPEAKER_02]: going into the election for the president.
7:40
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like, all right, well, one minute, this administration will be pro-crypto.
7:44
[SPEAKER_02]: This one's basically anti-crypto, like, place your bets.
7:48
[SPEAKER_02]: And we were, you know, we tried to do our best with the research.
7:51
[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, we thought that, you know, it was going to come out on our side.
7:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And it did.
7:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And it was a great pressure valve of release, right?
7:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Going from the 50s all the way up to, you know, 120 is a great ride.
8:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think,
8:04
[SPEAKER_02]: If I look back and I'm just, again, it's my opinion.
8:07
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is kind of what I'm thinking.
8:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I was like, oh, now we can't lose, right?
8:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just going to go up forever type of thing.
8:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think part of this fear and green index hitting record lows is kind of just ingesting the new information of like what people thought.
8:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you take a shorter time scale of it, it's like, oh,
8:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, now, you know, with the pro administration and Bitcoin bills and the, you know, the crypto capital, the world and a Bitcoin reserve, it's like we won't, you know, ever have, you know, we'll never go down again type of vibe and I think people are obviously getting shook and maybe overexposed.
8:44
[SPEAKER_02]: I think, like exactly you said it's over leveraged, right, and not even just over leverage and placing bets and almost gambling.
8:51
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like,
8:52
[SPEAKER_02]: We played a clip the other day about all the people how many loan products like in the last year how many new loan products for Bitcoin was kind of put on the market for retail to get access to and, you know, you didn't
9:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe you got tied up in that and you kind of got margin called and you know all the different things from Binance and all that So I I agree with you, but also I can see how we we are here in a way, but I do agree I just I personally felt way worse during you know FTX and some other times in the market and and less clarity and
9:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, pun intended because of the clarity act.
9:29
[SPEAKER_02]: I think, you know, we've talked about and we'll keep monitoring could hopefully lead us out of this.
9:33
[SPEAKER_02]: But, um, yeah, I don't, I think it feels it's wild to see, you know, the same, um, the fear and greed index is just the same kind of measuring of data to get get that low.
9:46
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, yeah, I mean, I want to agree, I sense over another one, and I want to take a look at the fear and greed index compared to some of these other times, because it's always good to look at things with perspective, right?
10:00
[SPEAKER_03]: And so you can see, okay, well, where is the fear and greed index been during some of these other crashes, and we showed this on like the line chart earlier, but it's a little bit harder to see it.
10:09
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you can see it, like just all side by side.
10:12
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, well, FTX, we were a 12, COVID-9, the 1718 crash.
10:17
[SPEAKER_03]: That, I was around for that one.
10:19
[SPEAKER_03]: I was making videos then, um, before crypto 101.
10:22
[SPEAKER_03]: That was an early one.
10:23
[SPEAKER_03]: We're talking 80 plus percent trod on in Bitcoin.
10:26
[SPEAKER_03]: We're only at 52 percent.
10:28
[SPEAKER_03]: It was drastically worse.
10:31
[SPEAKER_03]: Mount Cox in 2012's crash.
10:33
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, this isn't even including the 2019 crash.
10:38
[SPEAKER_03]: of the Japanese carriage crash, the tariff crash, the first pullback that we had after the bottom of the 2022 bear market.
10:47
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, there were some other gnarly ones that you could include in here that got the Firen Green in next really, really low.
10:54
[SPEAKER_03]: And this raises the ultimate question, though, you know, Tvo of saying,
10:59
[SPEAKER_03]: What should we be doing?
11:01
[SPEAKER_03]: And I always want to give a disclaimer and disclosure here.
11:04
[SPEAKER_03]: We're not financial advisors.
11:05
[SPEAKER_03]: We are not your financial advisors.
11:07
[SPEAKER_03]: We're never trying to give financial advice.
11:09
[SPEAKER_03]: But the way that I think through this is that the big question that I've kind of had asked myself is, should I want to be a buyer here and what does the data suggest?
11:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, the data would suggest that any time that the theorem greed index for the RSI or the MACD have ever gotten to these levels, historically, that has reached awfully close to the buying point.
11:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Now, it's important to understand that indicators are typically lagging in nature.
11:40
[SPEAKER_03]: So they typically not always but typically front run the bottom a little bit.
11:44
[SPEAKER_03]: So you get the bottom signals firing on these things, and then the bottom comes a little bit later.
11:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, here we are, you know, we're kind of reaching this point and you could say, okay, when we hit this point on the fear and greed index during these other times, what would have been the likely scenario?
12:04
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, I think if you would have bought in any of these events, you would have looked out about, you know, a couple months, let's make it really bold and say you would have looked out a year later and you would have been very happy.
12:15
[SPEAKER_03]: If you would have bought one to fear and greed index was a nine during the COVID crash, zoom out, you would have been really happy in the big scheme of things.
12:22
[SPEAKER_03]: If you would have done this string FTX, you would have been happy.
12:24
[SPEAKER_03]: You would have done it during 2018, uh, when Bitcoin fell to $3,000, you would have been pretty, pretty happy afterwards.
12:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And the same goes for a lot of these.
12:34
[SPEAKER_03]: And so people always like to say, oh, but this time it's different, this time it's different,
12:45
[SPEAKER_03]: The question I have for everyone is why should this time be any different when I would argue that we've seen worse things in the past.
12:55
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, some of the largest exchanges mount gocs at the time, huge, ftx at the time, huge.
13:02
[SPEAKER_03]: One of the pentacles of exchanges, you know, the COVID crash, the whole world shutting down.
13:07
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, all these other things, why should this time be
13:11
[SPEAKER_03]: and he different.
13:12
[SPEAKER_03]: Why should it now become unrecoverable?
13:15
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what I have a hard time swallowing, is this question of people trying to bring up the idea of, oh, but this time it's different.
13:22
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think there's two ways to look, get good.
13:25
[SPEAKER_01]: No, no, finish your venture thought.
13:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Finish thoughts.
13:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry.
13:27
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, let's get to say there's two ways to look at it.
13:30
[SPEAKER_03]: Is this time different for crypto?
13:31
[SPEAKER_03]: No.
13:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Is this time different from maybe some altcoins?
13:36
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think you can say yes.
13:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Because the point I want to make is that we'll crypto go on absolutely will every single altcoin that you love and invested in recover the way that it should that it would have in the last cycle.
13:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I'd say the answer there is no there's going to be a lot of altcoins that don't recover from this.
13:52
[SPEAKER_03]: There's also going to be a number of altcoins that do recover from this.
13:55
[SPEAKER_03]: I think the fear that comes out of this is that every cycle, what you tend to see is that everyone's favorite altcoins and the ones that are the most successful, it tends to change from cycle of cycle for the general altcoin population.
14:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You've seen this every cycle, it's nothing new, but will the crypto industry and probably a lot of the large capture cover?
14:15
[SPEAKER_03]: Historically, the answer has always been yes.
14:18
[SPEAKER_02]: No, a great thought, and this chart is awesome because thinking about a 10 or a 9 back when those days compared to a 5 today is almost, almost comical in a way.
14:32
[SPEAKER_02]: And I guess my main point is if you go to the bottom side so the COVID crash, FTX 2020, six or even the whole chart, it's like, each time it's gotten this low, there's been more and more reason to almost believe.
14:48
[SPEAKER_02]: the top of the chart is just what called the straight up old days like straight up wild wild west i think you can make the case back then like you had no idea whether it was going to come back or not like it's more of a belief of what it is more than like oh i can see the future of it in my opinion then the covid crashes the first one were like okay like yeah monday morning quarterback you know i would have taken out a much money loan credit cards and everything
15:14
[SPEAKER_02]: But if I'm being honest like back it was scary like it was very skewed.
15:18
[SPEAKER_02]: No idea what was going on and I at the time I lived in New York City and they're shutting the work down.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: They're sending people home It was it was a confusing time.
15:27
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's like it wasn't very crypto specific.
15:29
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like
15:30
[SPEAKER_02]: is this the end of my life?
15:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Like no more concerts, no more, you know, go into the bars.
15:35
[SPEAKER_02]: It wasn't like crypto specific or even finance specific.
15:38
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like an existential question.
15:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the FTX one, when I came on board before that for crypto 101.
15:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So we were all working together at the time.
15:48
[SPEAKER_02]: And definitely it was
15:49
[SPEAKER_02]: super scary the initial like drawn out in the bloodbath of the bear market and all that stuff and I was definitely questioning a little bit like the fear was was very high but credit to us in a way I gave I got um I got guidance and I got belief from this podcast because that's when we started having one like Matt Hogan's
16:11
[SPEAKER_02]: of the world.
16:12
[SPEAKER_02]: And people coming in and talking about like, hey, we see a pathway to the Bitcoin ETF.
16:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And that was, you know, that was around that that wasn't the $15,000 mark necessarily for Bitcoin.
16:22
[SPEAKER_02]: But that was around like the 20 to 30 range, like Matt Hogan was coming on this show and talking about the pathway that he saw and just really diving into the the community of crimnation and getting information from you, Bryce.
16:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And just, you know, these podcasts episodes really, really solidified my belief of like, all right, yeah, we're getting out of this.
16:42
[SPEAKER_02]: And I kind of, in a way, feel very similar here.
16:46
[SPEAKER_02]: I think what's always cool about every cycles, there's always something new.
16:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And we've talked about this last couple of weeks with the AI trade and software and kind of how I think Dick coin got tied up a little bit in that.
16:57
[SPEAKER_02]: along with just general, you know, market dynamics, but it's more of like a narrative.
17:04
[SPEAKER_02]: It's kind of like, we've hammered home the software thing, but let's go back to like when Geo healthcare stocks.
17:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So when the administration came in, you know, it was, you know, again, not to get political, but it was Bobby Kennedy's going to be the health person.
17:17
[SPEAKER_02]: He's going to, you know, pull the strings and rip out all the healthcare stocks tanked.
17:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Now the health care stocks are the best performers of the of like the year today it's like health care and oil and then the glp ones came out and they're like, oh my god, everybody's going to get super skinny nobody's going to buy Coca-Cola and nobody's going to buy potato chips and all those stocks tanked and then what are the better?
17:37
[SPEAKER_02]: best performers right now here today.
17:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Staples.
17:39
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, oh my god, did Coca-Cola invent the cure for cancer?
17:42
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, no, they're just undervalued in the values coming back.
17:45
[SPEAKER_02]: And so with all the bullish fundamentals and all the efforts that we put into making these episodes and doing the interviews, I'm really starting to come around with the belief.
17:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, okay, like the money is flowing else to right now.
17:56
[SPEAKER_02]: This is, this is a tale as old as time.
17:59
[SPEAKER_02]: do the research like you said not everything is going to be a winner when it comes back but the like I just think there's so much bullishness and in the future and like again it we're not we're not digging for interviews to try to find one person talking about the pathway to Bitcoin ETF like go look at all of our shows how many of these big banks we have some more that we're going to talk about in a little bit of just every everybody's building in the space so it's like
18:24
[SPEAKER_02]: the price allocation versus the fundamentals does not make sense to reiterate exactly what you said so it's super it's super exciting I I feel I feel very calm like the fear and greed index at an all-time low bread and I feel super confident being here and getting happy to come on and make these episodes I think is is a good song
18:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I would agree, and I think that's how it should be given where we're are, and that's probably a sign of being somewhat oversold.
18:50
[SPEAKER_03]: That doesn't necessarily mean, hey, we can't go lower, but I think we've reached the point where you really got to start looking at this and say historically.
18:57
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, if the bottom isn't in, we should be getting real, real close to it where a place where buyers should be comfortable from a longer term perspective and, you know, we don't typically like to talk about leverage on this show, that's not the whole point of it.
19:11
[SPEAKER_03]: But we've reached the point now where me and you are kind of going back and forth, a little bit of banter, talking about different leaps, positions, looking at the crypto market, saying, hey,
19:21
[SPEAKER_03]: Two years out from now, right?
19:22
[SPEAKER_03]: I think one, the two years out is typically the conversations we've had is at some point in the next
19:28
[SPEAKER_03]: One, the two years, do we think that a lot of these cryptos and cryptorrelated positions can be higher up than where they're at today?
19:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that's a hot take to say, hey, in the next year or two, these things can Bitcoin can be higher than 65,000.
19:43
[SPEAKER_03]: In the next year or two, Bitcoin or Ethereum can be higher than 3,000.
19:47
[SPEAKER_03]: In the next year or two, Solonic can be higher than 79 bucks or whatever it is.
19:52
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that's a hot take, I think we've reached just an incredible area of value where we've even started to have these conversations buying the scenes and be like, this is something that we're, you know, interested in and it's because the real money is made after the crash has happened.
20:06
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone's always more comfortable buying while it's high for whatever reason.
20:10
[SPEAKER_03]: They're always the most afraid to buy when it's low.
20:14
[SPEAKER_03]: They're always the most concerned.
20:15
[SPEAKER_03]: Should I be selling while it's low?
20:18
[SPEAKER_03]: When in reality, again, you know, never financial advice, it could go down more.
20:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Like there could always be a worst case scenario, but historically, people have this inverse way of thinking about it, where they think the least amount of value, or the worst time to buy is when it's low, and it just doesn't necessarily make sense for any kind of asset that has a large term uptrend.
20:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, say this, whenever me and you start texting or sacking each other, little, little de-gen plays, it's, it's, it's worked out since I've, you know, been here in the last, you know, three and a half, four years.
20:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So super exciting.
20:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Something that will watch something that I was always, we haven't, we haven't pulled this up in a while, Brendan, but something that I was always super interested in when things were going well.
21:00
[SPEAKER_02]: is the Google Trends.
21:01
[SPEAKER_02]: And there was all this style.
21:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Google Trends doesn't tell anything.
21:04
[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't give you anything.
21:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think we kind of disprove that that it is.
21:08
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it is a good tool in the toolbox.
21:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And I find I just was kind of thinking about, you know, trying to bring something different to the table for the show today.
21:16
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, let's check, let's check Google Trends.
21:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, I was actually.
21:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Surprise, I was surprised at what I was seeing, so let's pull it up.
21:24
[SPEAKER_02]: So I got in the blues Bitcoin and this is Google Trends and then then the red their orange there's Bitcoin price so this is over five years so over a five year period
21:36
[SPEAKER_02]: coin and Bitcoin price are at, I mean, you're going to say it's at a size because, you know, the the 2021 and the 22, the last bull market was at 100, but you're telling me that it's at 80 and then go and switch this to the past year.
21:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I think, yeah, it was, it hit 100.
21:55
[SPEAKER_02]: I think people are always like, oh, nobody Googles Bitcoin anymore.
21:58
[SPEAKER_02]: They just open up their apps so their brokerages and nobody Googles it.
22:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I think we just proved that before in the bull market, but I kind of like this.
22:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I kind of like, it kind of refers back to the Bitcoin dead chart that we pull up sometimes.
22:13
[SPEAKER_02]: People are loving the demise of it and Googling it and salivating it, watching it drop.
22:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this is, I think this is good counter data.
22:25
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, there's the saying that's like capitulation is usually the final phase, right?
22:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone says you need full capitulation before the market bottoms.
22:33
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think a lot of this feeds into it.
22:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone's like, is Bitcoin dead?
22:36
[SPEAKER_03]: You're starting to see the headlines.
22:38
[SPEAKER_03]: It's seen from different financial or newsplaces.
22:41
[SPEAKER_03]: You saw it from Burry saying this.
22:43
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's usually a sign when Burry's Michael Burry's coming out, talking about a crash.
22:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, he's has a
22:50
[SPEAKER_03]: big track record of being wrong and usually calling the bottom whenever he calls the crash ever since 2008 like he hit on that he hit on to a 2008 and ever since then he's been trying to call other crashes and it's usually like
23:06
[SPEAKER_03]: when he calls it, it's usually close to the bottom.
23:08
[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, right, you know, we mean we joke, but I think you make a pretty good point here looking at Google Trends and people are interested in what's going on and you're seeing it up tick again.
23:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
23:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, let's let's let's transition to the charts.
23:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, just wanted to give a shout out to the chat.
23:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Good morning here.
23:28
[SPEAKER_02]: We got J S a borey.
23:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Thanks, brother.
23:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Taylor's here.
23:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Jins here.
23:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Brett's here.
23:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Matt's here.
23:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I know Grant somewhere out there as well.
23:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Good morning to everybody.
23:39
[SPEAKER_02]: If you could just give this video a like.
23:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and if you're new, bottom right hit the logo and subscribe.
23:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Brendan's pulling up the charts.
23:45
[SPEAKER_02]: he is our technical analysis guru and you know obviously we do this for free we're here for crypto 101 and the youtube but if you are interested in doing a more intensive course i saw a question actually from i think it was Jim about asking about like stop limit orders maybe we can touch that on the end but if you're somebody that really wants to deep dive into this
24:06
[SPEAKER_02]: the charts and technical analysis and trading.
24:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Brendan has a six week trading course.
24:10
[SPEAKER_02]: It's an intensive.
24:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You get to learn all the charts and, you know, it basically you get to work with him, not one on one, but with a small group.
24:19
[SPEAKER_02]: There's lives, so there's two lives a week where you can ask him questions about specific tokens and ask questions like Jim and get the
24:25
[SPEAKER_02]: The answers that you need with Brendan all while going through a six-week intensive to learn the charts and the signals It's the microboron course.
24:33
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you're interested in Brendan's technical analysis course The cohort is open.
24:37
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not open all the time.
24:38
[SPEAKER_02]: So I put a link in the bio for that But Brendan a little tee up there to show us the charts and they're looking a little green today
24:47
[SPEAKER_03]: Bitcoin up 3.5% back to 68,500 bucks, rallying with the rest of the market here, the Ethereum up over 4% salana up over 5.5xRP about 3% ish, but as you kind of see on my sidebar over here everything's green at least several percent for the most part, there's a few outliers here and there, but
25:09
[SPEAKER_03]: Everything getting a little bit of a rally here.
25:10
[SPEAKER_03]: A couple of interesting points here to make Tivo kind of before we begin.
25:14
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, this is what the chart has looked like since the October 10th crash.
25:17
[SPEAKER_03]: You have the initial move down, consolidation.
25:20
[SPEAKER_03]: Another move down, consolidation.
25:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Now another leg down kind of happening over and here.
25:26
[SPEAKER_03]: And this is the big move in question.
25:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Is this the bottom?
25:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Because you kind of look out at what we've done.
25:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And I don't think that there's enough data.
25:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Also, apologies in advance, trading views have been lagging all morning.
25:38
[SPEAKER_03]: So it's going to be a little bit slower.
25:40
[SPEAKER_03]: But as you kind of zoom out here, this is the big move in question.
25:45
[SPEAKER_03]: There's not enough data yet to say, OK, is a bottom, actually, in?
25:50
[SPEAKER_03]: We've only had about a week's worth of data.
25:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Actually, exactly a week's worth of data
25:55
[SPEAKER_03]: the bottom came in last week.
25:58
[SPEAKER_03]: So I so would argue that that's probably not enough to say, oh my gosh, it's so obvious that a bottom's in, anything like that, we just don't have enough data yet.
26:05
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I would probably say we just need a little bit more to kind of get an idea of how reliable this bottom could be.
26:12
[SPEAKER_03]: But there's a couple of things to highlight.
26:15
[SPEAKER_03]: You look at this and saying, okay, well, we've come to this $60,000 area before.
26:20
[SPEAKER_03]: We've kind of came up here, hit all time highs rejected, came up here, hit all time highs rejected.
26:25
[SPEAKER_03]: We came back up here again, spent the bulk of this consolidation around the $60,000 price range.
26:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And we spent a long time here.
26:34
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, then after we eventually broke out of this, you know, prior all-time highs, big consolidation at all-time highs, but we broke out of this tested it three different times over here as support.
26:44
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, now we're kind of coming back into this same zone that we've spent so much of our history looking at how important this range is.
26:52
[SPEAKER_03]: And now we're finally coming back to it and saying, okay, well, we're testing this.
26:55
[SPEAKER_03]: And because of this, you know, one of the big things I wanted to highlight was that you can look at this from like a volume point of control standpoint.
27:02
[SPEAKER_03]: So most people look at volume by time.
27:05
[SPEAKER_03]: And so that's going to be at the bottom of your chart.
27:08
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say, let's look at it by volume by price.
27:10
[SPEAKER_03]: And that shows us these volume points control where volume has been concentrated at specific price ranges.
27:16
[SPEAKER_03]: And you tend to see price move.
27:18
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, pretty steadily in between what we call these volume points of control.
27:22
[SPEAKER_03]: So over here, you can see, hey, there's a big little spike of volume point of control.
27:26
[SPEAKER_03]: That's where we consolidated that.
27:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, as soon as we broke beneath that volume point of control, we felt directly from this one, directly to this volume point of control.
27:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Incidentally enough, that's exactly where those prior consolidation areas were.
27:40
[SPEAKER_03]: And this is exactly where we felt, too, and you can see price hovering around right in here.
27:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I think if there's anywhere for there to be a major support, it's back down in here.
27:49
[SPEAKER_03]: We tapped around 59 to 60k on the low end, which is kind of the lower end of this thing.
27:54
[SPEAKER_03]: I would say it ranges from around 61 to 62k on the low end to around 6869,000 ish on the high end.
28:01
[SPEAKER_03]: But this is one of those big areas of support that I think people should watch out for.
28:06
[SPEAKER_03]: On the upside here, you're going to have some minor levels that may be 75, 76, and then some bigger levels as you get into the low 80s, low to mid 80,000s again.
28:16
[SPEAKER_03]: But you know, Bitcoin is at a pretty big level over here where I think it's worth turning some heads and really starting to pay attention.
28:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Now on top of that, you look at some of these things I was touting about earlier.
28:27
[SPEAKER_03]: The one-day MACD, or excuse me, the one-day RSI, hitting the lowest levels that we have seen in a really, really long time.
28:35
[SPEAKER_03]: The second lowest level that we've seen, I believe all time, I know it's the second lowest level that we've seen in the last decade.
28:42
[SPEAKER_03]: They might be the third lowest level of all time.
28:47
[SPEAKER_03]: I can actually go to another chart to probably figure that out real fast.
28:50
[SPEAKER_03]: But,
28:52
[SPEAKER_03]: I might not be worth it with how much trading views lag in this morning.
28:55
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone's trying to find out what's happening with price.
28:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But so happens you look a couple green candles.
29:02
[SPEAKER_03]: Say it again.
29:02
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what happens when you get a couple green candles.
29:06
[SPEAKER_03]: It is.
29:06
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, you start rallying here on Bitcoin.
29:08
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, it's really moving now almost back up to 69,000, but as you zoom out over here again, like the second or third lowest point that we've ever seen and I'll just go back to the original chart because it doesn't look like it wants to play nice this morning.
29:22
[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, so the MACD, at the second lowest point that it's been in the last decade, you zoom out to the MACD, for example.
29:28
[SPEAKER_03]: This is at the lowest point that it's ever been in all of history, and you start looking at these factors alongside the fear and greed index, and you're like, man, well, historically when we've hit these areas, it's been really, really good opportunities.
29:43
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think you can see this even more clearly, and this is something we showed last Friday.
29:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Just looking at the weekly chart,
29:50
[SPEAKER_03]: of the relative strength index over here for Bitcoin and saying, hey, well, you know, historically on this chart, where do we like to find market bottoms and where do we like to find market tops?
30:03
[SPEAKER_03]: And we zoom out on this and it shows us in like a pretty clear manner of like, hey, where do the market bottoms and tops?
30:09
[SPEAKER_03]: 10 to happen since 2010 and it's like okay, well obviously up in here the market tops happen and obviously down in here almost every market bottom This is ever happened and again you look at this from the 2011 cycle the 2015 cycle the 2019 bottom
30:26
[SPEAKER_03]: the 2022 bottom and now you're looking at it and it's like, is it a coincidence that this tends to happen every four years?
30:33
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, potentially, potentially not.
30:35
[SPEAKER_03]: But you have it happen in 2011, 2015, four years later, um, 2018 at the very very end of 2018.
30:43
[SPEAKER_03]: So you have, you know, almost four years later, then you have the next one, 2022 and then 2026.
30:48
[SPEAKER_03]: So the time periods all align,
30:51
[SPEAKER_03]: the exact area of the RSI where it always bottoms out is also aligning and so it just feels like it's being made more complicated than it needs to be and there's all these external factors in this in that.
31:04
[SPEAKER_03]: When in reality, I would just say, hey, let's just simplify it.
31:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's just look at the past data since Bitcoin's inception and let's look at all of that data and say, where is it historically
31:15
[SPEAKER_03]: and I would say at this point almost almost all not all almost all of the signs are firing saying it is getting to the point where if it has not bottom it is getting mighty close to that area and then you might have to factor in a little bit of lag for these indicators but it's kind of screaming at you saying hey
31:33
[SPEAKER_03]: This is the signs that are fired while Bitcoin and Crypto was bottomed in previous cycles.
31:38
[SPEAKER_03]: You should probably be paying attention to this thing now.
31:41
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's the way that I'm looking at it.
31:42
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, Bitcoin continuing to accelerate 69,100 now.
31:45
[SPEAKER_03]: And...
31:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Anyway, so I say all this, and then the final piece of data that I'll give here to you, though, is the 200-week moving average, which again, we have talked about, but I want to make sure everyone's aware of this stuff.
31:58
[SPEAKER_03]: Where is Bitcoin bottomed out since the 200-week moving average inception?
32:02
[SPEAKER_03]: When you look at it, 2015, bottomed here, again, 2015, second bottom there.
32:07
[SPEAKER_03]: 18, bottom of the 200-week moving average, COVID crash, bout, bottomed off of this.
32:12
[SPEAKER_03]: The 2022 market cycle came to this area.
32:15
[SPEAKER_03]: Spent a little bit of time beneath it, but overall marked the rough area of the bottom.
32:19
[SPEAKER_03]: And now we're back at this again, and we're bouncing off this and seeing buying pressure.
32:25
[SPEAKER_03]: So I would, again, look at all these different stats.
32:27
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, RSI, Mac, D, Feren, Greed Index, moving averages, candle charts, the spacing of how much
32:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Like everything's kind of pointing towards this direction of saying you got to see some area of value down here.
32:44
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, maybe there's a lag, maybe we need to go a little bit lower and stuff.
32:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe there's one final move.
32:49
[SPEAKER_03]: But, you know, for the most part, I'm fairly convinced that we're at some sort of area of opportunity here.
32:58
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's the way that I'm looking at it.
32:59
[SPEAKER_03]: So I mean, there's so much to talk about on the technicals.
33:02
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm already getting myself wound up.
33:04
[SPEAKER_03]: You can tell, because I start speaking louder and start speaking faster.
33:07
[SPEAKER_03]: But I get excited.
33:08
[SPEAKER_03]: Because again, like, dude, that's where the money is made.
33:11
[SPEAKER_03]: And I get excited about it.
33:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Because I think that there's just some real opportunity here.
33:18
[SPEAKER_03]: And we're seeing development of the fundamentals and technicals.
33:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Just from taking your class and doing this with you for so long, I do know that historically, you know, sometimes we do break below that 200 day moving average, but then historically, that's, you know, that is, you know, not financial advice by any means, but that's the time to really start buying.
33:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and kind of circling back to the beginning of our conversation on fear and greed.
33:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I could see that like final flush kind of what we said We're like, oh, I can't believe that we're at a five like it's not as bad as it used to be.
33:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm scared the price action sucks But I don't feel I'm not as scared as like I have been before so I feel like you know again It's just two friends talking crypto everybody else has their opinions out there
33:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, obviously if you're completely over leverage and you got wiped out, you feel as worse as you ever been, but I could see, you know, again, I think it depends on the macro.
34:08
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of forces.
34:09
[SPEAKER_02]: So, no, again, nobody has a crystal ball and guarantee you this or that with price action.
34:13
[SPEAKER_02]: They're lying to you if they say that.
34:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's, you know, you get some good news.
34:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Good macro or a good specific crypto, you know, something happens with regulation or the Bitcoin reserve.
34:22
[SPEAKER_02]: It goes.
34:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It runs.
34:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there another macro force event that could bring Bitcoin lower?
34:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely, and then I think that's when you really start to get everybody panicking For that final, you know, dip below the 200 day moving average, but super super exciting stuff and always like when you're getting record lows on these metrics It's you got to pay attention right?
34:45
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and one final thing, you made a great point where we could see one more move lower, right?
34:51
[SPEAKER_03]: We don't have a full confirmation.
34:53
[SPEAKER_03]: We see a lot of data saying, hey, the market looks good.
34:55
[SPEAKER_03]: One thing that I think would be really important to you to your point to watch out for is if Bitcoin's price action has one more move lower.
35:05
[SPEAKER_03]: The number one thing I would watch out for there is looking at the one day relative strength index and a lot of the time what we see is something called bullish divergence or hidden bullish divergence, some people like to call it.
35:17
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's when price action moves to a lower low, but the relative strength index moves to a higher low in the oversoul territory.
35:26
[SPEAKER_03]: And what that shows is that, hey, despite price action actually falling further, the bear's strength is weaker than it was previously at.
35:36
[SPEAKER_03]: So it shows this false sense of security where strength from the bear's is weaker despite a deeper push lower and that usually acts as the final catalyst for abandoning event.
35:47
[SPEAKER_03]: And so I'd really keep an eye on that saying, Hey, if we do see Bitcoin roll over it towards the lows or in the new lows, so long as there is less strength than what we saw last time.
35:56
[SPEAKER_03]: So a higher higher than a 15 on the one day RSI, I would say that it actually tends to present a pretty screaming buy opportunity.
36:05
[SPEAKER_03]: So really good point to kind of make there as be.
36:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Love it to transition us into our next topic.
36:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Could you pull up Uniswap and show us a week or two chart on Uniswap?
36:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Because it kind of ties into us transitioning into the news that we saw this week.
36:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, absolutely.
36:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Uniswap.
36:25
[SPEAKER_03]: Making a move here up six and a half percent on the day.
36:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a quick look at the chart.
36:30
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, getting some some volatility back into it with some of these wicks.
36:34
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, bottoming and topside wicks.
36:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, but this is what uni swaps look like.
36:38
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, I know they had some good news come out.
36:41
[SPEAKER_03]: They're up more than most other cryptos today.
36:43
[SPEAKER_03]: About six and a half percent to the upside.
36:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I know that they've said about what about on the week.
36:48
[SPEAKER_03]: On the weekly chart, they are.
36:51
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's take a quick look here.
36:55
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, down overall, still read on the week, but since last week's low, it looks like they are up about 22%.
37:02
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay.
37:03
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
37:04
[SPEAKER_02]: That was that giant.
37:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Now go to that top wick there.
37:07
[SPEAKER_02]: The red top wick.
37:08
[SPEAKER_02]: They're like jumped on this news.
37:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I think from the bottom wick to that top wick there.
37:12
[SPEAKER_02]: That's that's probably like what 40% 61.
37:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, so I just wanted to highlight that of like the volatility in the name and I can take over from here Brendan to share.
37:24
[SPEAKER_02]: So Uniswap had a very interesting announcement with BlackRock, it seems.
37:31
[SPEAKER_02]: So Uniswap served obviously saw 60% on the charts there, but in 30 minutes it was up 40% after BlackRock enabled defy training of its middle fund via Uniswap.
37:45
[SPEAKER_02]: So I was seeing this on the timeline as I was pretty surprised.
37:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, at one point, remember, back, back before this administration and Gary Ginsler was attacking crypto, Uniswap seemed to be on kind of the chopping block, especially for the U.S. And then I went and looked and just tons of news around it on the official Uniswap blog, Adam Finance, everybody was talking about it.
38:09
[SPEAKER_02]: So Uniswap labs and black rock,
38:13
[SPEAKER_02]: working together on, you know, some type of strategic integration.
38:18
[SPEAKER_02]: So I thought that was really fascinating.
38:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, I don't think it immediately deserves like, you know, a 60% pump, and you saw that retracement come back down for the token price.
38:29
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, it's the fundamentals of the integration of these, you know, legacy banks that it goes back to our point of like,
38:37
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, when you're at a historical level of fear and greed, but you see partnerships and integrations like this, it's hard to ignore.
38:46
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it is.
38:47
[SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, for reference here, I mean, they're the largest asset manager on the planet.
38:51
[SPEAKER_03]: About 10 trillion dollars in assets under management.
38:55
[SPEAKER_03]: They are the biggest.
38:56
[SPEAKER_03]: They tend to set the standard.
38:57
[SPEAKER_03]: They've had this middle fund, and if you're not aware of what it is, think of it as like an on-chain money market fund or something like that.
39:07
[SPEAKER_03]: It's probably the best way to describe it.
39:09
[SPEAKER_03]: And I believe it has, last time I checked, I think it had a couple of billion dollars inside of it.
39:16
[SPEAKER_03]: So it's not small by any means.
39:21
[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, I mean, I'm looking at it.
39:23
[SPEAKER_03]: It looks like it had several billion dollars inside of it.
39:26
[SPEAKER_03]: So it's not small by any means, but it doesn't hold like specific cryptocurrencies.
39:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think their tends will be confusion about it.
39:34
[SPEAKER_03]: So it doesn't hold crypto.
39:34
[SPEAKER_03]: It's more of like a money market account that's on chain.
39:38
[SPEAKER_03]: But still, coming from the world's largest asset manager, they're interested in this stuff.
39:43
[SPEAKER_03]: And I mean, Tvo, just a couple of days ago for everyone that's listening,
39:48
[SPEAKER_03]: The podcast isn't out yet, but we just talk to Franklin Temple Tintu, another one of the world's largest asset managers, almost $2 trillion in assets under management, and we talk to them about this stuff, and they're like, guys, we are genuinely interested, you got to listen to the pod when it comes out in a couple weeks, but they're like, guys, we are genuinely interested, we don't think this is going anywhere.
40:08
[SPEAKER_03]: We are trying to actively do more, and if Franklin's doing that, you're obviously seeing BlackRock do this.
40:15
[SPEAKER_03]: You're seeing this from other people, you know, JP Morgan's talking about it.
40:19
[SPEAKER_03]: Fidelity's talking about this stuff like...
40:21
[SPEAKER_03]: It's very, they're making it as obvious as they possibly can.
40:25
[SPEAKER_03]: They're telling us, which gives me more security.
40:28
[SPEAKER_03]: So they're doubling down.
40:29
[SPEAKER_03]: They're saying, hey, let's enable training for this.
40:31
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's allow people to do this on-chain.
40:33
[SPEAKER_03]: It's already a tokenized fund.
40:35
[SPEAKER_03]: This seems like a step in the right direction.
40:37
[SPEAKER_03]: And BlackRock wanting to be more plugged in to crypto and giving people more access.
40:43
[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, it's BlackRock perfect, probably not right.
40:47
[SPEAKER_03]: I know sometimes they get maybe a bad reputation
40:52
[SPEAKER_03]: But the one thing you want is you want probably one of the largest asset managers, at least in your corner and not necessarily against you.
40:58
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think you gotta look at that as a positive.
41:02
[SPEAKER_02]: couldn't agree more and there's a lot more noise being made for different projects around the space we talked about hyper-liquid last week with the stats versus coin-based will bring those up again to get Brendan's take but I did catch hyper-liquid being talked about on national TV that's a first for me I don't know if anybody else has ever saw it out there but I do my best to try to comb through the entire internet and bring the
41:25
[SPEAKER_02]: The news do you guys and the fun stuff and the bad stuff, but this was really, really interesting to see, you know, national TV, somebody mentioned hyper liquid.
41:34
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's take a listen.
41:35
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a quick clip and then we'll pull up the stats and get a reaction on the other side.
41:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Over time, three years, four years, everything that's traded will be traded on chain.
41:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It's faster, it's 24-7, it's secure, it's more efficient, and the markets, and of course I'm saying this in the grounds of the New York Stock Exchange, but I think all trading will be on chain.
42:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think hyper-liquid is probably the leading example out there of trading, and
42:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So the same talking points that we've heard nonstop from everybody from Larry think to even Jamie crypto diamond, friend of the show, of course, saying, hey, everything's coming on Shane, everything's coming on Shane and even though Jamie crypto diamond hates Bitcoin, go look at JP Morgan's balance sheet where that was the stat.
42:27
[SPEAKER_02]: that our friend from Franklin Templeton told us yesterday, it's like, yeah, he can't really talk out of that side of his mouth anymore, because just go look at his balance sheets, so things are coming on chain and a shout out to directly to HyperLickWid.
42:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Kind of going, I said this again, before I handed off to you for your take, friend, I said this, it was credit to the crypto nation and inside the community.
42:46
[SPEAKER_02]: We do a lot of awesome stuff here, and obviously we talked a lot about HyperLickWid the last couple weeks, but if you were inside the community,
42:57
[SPEAKER_02]: reports with Bryce and Rohit and you guys talking about it.
43:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I know Brian and Joe were talking about it in their community and their newsletters and videos So again as much as we we try to bring you know as much as good information as we can to the pod There is a lot of alpha inside the community and this was something that I remember reading through the newsletters months ago If you guys really like
43:16
[SPEAKER_02]: diving into hyper liquid and there was some some good information on it.
43:19
[SPEAKER_02]: So if anybody's interested in getting in more involved with crypto nation and and broheets newsletter and Bryce and you know you Brendan and Brian and Joe I think you know we've always have a one dollar trial in the description down there as well for crypto nation.
43:33
[SPEAKER_02]: So check it out but the stats were wild you know any any take on just hyper liquid we kind of broke down these numbers with
43:45
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, you know, my thoughts here are, they've grown into an exceptional rate and they continue to grow in the craziest thing about this is that they aren't even allowed to be used inside the US yet, right?
43:56
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the crazy thing is like the only people in the US who use them are the people who VPN in which we do not condone because, you know, it's illegal.
44:03
[SPEAKER_03]: But that's the only way people in the US get access to them so that you're looking at them saying, guys, I mean, they're competing in TV.
44:15
[SPEAKER_03]: You look at how they're doing, and they're doing more volume than a lot of these other different places on here.
44:23
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you have Coinbase, you have UnisSwap, you have Robinhood, Radium, they have taken off.
44:28
[SPEAKER_03]: And the craziest thing is they're not even that compatible with most other ecosystems.
44:33
[SPEAKER_03]: They're not super compatible with, you know, the area where Solana, they're kind of out there in their own thing, and yet they are becoming so wildly dominant.
44:45
[SPEAKER_03]: and they've held up their price performance has been drastically better.
44:48
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, they're up 30%, what is that?
44:51
[SPEAKER_03]: It's year to date, they're up 30%.
44:53
[SPEAKER_03]: Whereas, I think that's what that is.
44:55
[SPEAKER_03]: And then meanwhile, Coinbase is down almost 30%.
44:59
[SPEAKER_03]: And they're performing on metrics like trading volume, they're performing on activity, and they're also performing in terms of price action, which is what you want to see.
45:10
[SPEAKER_03]: So,
45:13
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, man.
45:13
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, it's turning heads.
45:15
[SPEAKER_03]: They kind of are capitalizing everywhere that they can.
45:20
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm interested to see where this goes moving forward because it feels like they are, I was gonna say the next big thing, but they're not even like the next big thing.
45:29
[SPEAKER_03]: They are now the big thing.
45:32
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, you know, like being bigger than Coinbase who I think has a hundred million users, let me fact check myself on that.
45:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's around a hundred million a hundred and ten million or something that is that's what Google's telling me that's crazy And hyper liquid here and what like a years time roughly speaking they've been able to to compete so
46:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think we'll, we'll jump around on the sheet here, um, let's jump around.
46:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's jump to seven Brendan, uh, what, what was your take on the Coinbase ad?
46:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So Brian and I did a deep dive on this, but basically I want to jump around because this is where directly comparing hyper liquid to, you know, the Robinhoods of the world, the Coinbase of the world, the Dex is all that stuff.
46:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So what was your take on the Coinbase ad?
46:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It was the big Super Bowl ad, the karaoke ad, uh, did you, did you like it?
46:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Did you not like it?
46:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Did you understand it?
46:33
[SPEAKER_03]: mid mid mid I did not it's funny we texted each other the moment it happened or maybe the day after it happened I didn't like it and this is it's so brutal because they have some of the best ads out there.
46:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Pause your thought.
46:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I want you to continue.
46:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody in the chat right now, I see some people chiming in, did you like or dislike the Coinbase ad?
46:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Throw it in the chat, let me know, and then Brendan's gonna finish, and then I'm gonna get to the chat and see what people said, because I'm really fascinated on the cryptos people take on this.
47:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So continue on, Brendan.
47:10
[SPEAKER_03]: I, apparently, I talked to my friends about this.
47:12
[SPEAKER_03]: Apparently, I had lots of hot takes about everything in the Super Bowl this year.
47:16
[SPEAKER_03]: But,
47:17
[SPEAKER_03]: The Coinbase ad, I thought was like, one of the worst ads they've ever done, was it, I don't know, actually I'm gonna stand by that.
47:26
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's one of the worst ads that they've ever done.
47:28
[SPEAKER_03]: They usually do some of the best ads in all of crypto.
47:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Some of the best, they are awesome at either ads.
47:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I love the shipping container ones and all these other ones that they've done, they have been brilliant with their marketing.
47:43
[SPEAKER_03]: This one,
47:45
[SPEAKER_03]: It felt like it excuse for Brian Armstrong and some of the team that go to the Super Bowl and then they were posing and they're like backstreet boys style jackets Posted a quick picture of them at the Super Bowl on it.
47:59
[SPEAKER_03]: They ran the ad and like that was it and
48:04
[SPEAKER_03]: At a time like this in the market, I just don't think the ad was fitting.
48:09
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that people are trying to find value and for you to play the world's most expensive game of karaoke and then act like Hunky Dory at the time where the fear and greed index is the worst it's ever been.
48:23
[SPEAKER_03]: It just does not feel like it was,
48:26
[SPEAKER_03]: appropriate or like maybe not appropriate.
48:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Like sure it was born in everything.
48:30
[SPEAKER_03]: It just doesn't feel like it was a useful or an effective ad at a time like this.
48:37
[SPEAKER_03]: And then they have them like posting about being at the Super Bowl instead.
48:40
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know.
48:41
[SPEAKER_03]: It just didn't feel like it was their best option, and it felt cheap.
48:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I think and I part of that is it was it's bear market if you're agreed indexed on an all time low over the weekend.
48:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like if that if it was a bull market Bitcoin was 500 K and everybody was in like I think that it definitely hits different so I totally agree with that of
49:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And I get the people wanting to sing, I just, yeah, it felt a little tone deaf and we love coin.
49:10
[SPEAKER_02]: We always appreciate the coin-based people coming on from all different parts of such a big business.
49:15
[SPEAKER_02]: But I just thought, and I'm, I just like being honest and giving a contrarian take, because we were talking about all the big time KLLs just, we're talking about, like, we love it.
49:26
[SPEAKER_02]: It's awesome.
49:27
[SPEAKER_02]: It's amazing.
49:27
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, you know, you always say everything's amazing, like, let's have some honesty for once.
49:32
[SPEAKER_02]: was like, hey, maybe that wasn't the best ad because you have had the most amazing ad department, probably in all of crypto.
49:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And if had like I always go back to the house one, right, the Bitcoin value or the house, it's like it just sparks so many conversations inside and outside of crypto Twitter that it's like, hey, put that on the TV, have people talk about that.
49:50
[SPEAKER_02]: But even I guess at the end of the day, like people don't like crypto,
49:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, we'll probably hate it anyway, but um, they keep that the other thing is they keep bringing it up like they just tweeted about it this morning or last night again They're like, oh, you know, hate it.
50:05
[SPEAKER_02]: I love it.
50:05
[SPEAKER_02]: You talked about it like our ad was great and it's like you keep explaining it It's like a joke.
50:11
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, uh, you know, a good joke.
50:12
[SPEAKER_02]: It doesn't
50:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, a good joke doesn't need to be explained.
50:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Like when you tell a joke and people don't laugh, you're like, oh, you didn't laugh because you don't get it it's like, no, we get it like everybody got everybody engaged and then the true results felt, you know, the true results for beer, what went viral like everybody posted about it and then boot or flipped off of the TV and then Coinbase makes a video of everybody singing dancing and having fun and then the Coinbase ad and they start clapping and I'm kind of like,
50:40
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, where did you get those videos?
50:42
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, like there's uh, you know, where did you get those videos of people having a good time singing?
50:47
[SPEAKER_02]: It feels like maybe, uh, you know, you're farming for it a little bit, but uh... Those are all the people who were short.
50:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there you go.
50:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
51:23
[SPEAKER_02]: we love Coinbase.
51:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I also don't want to get caught up in, you know, I come from the background of like the bar stool media where like, hey, you say what you want and some opinions people don't like is nothing to do with like being anti Coinbase.
51:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that at all.
51:37
[SPEAKER_02]: We love Coinbase always having their people on and they're always doing great stuff for the industry.
51:42
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just, you know, hey, it's okay, it's okay to maybe miss on and create a bad and have a healthy debate.
51:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's the fun part.
51:49
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like healthy debate.
51:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, instead of just saying everything's great, but um, you know, Brian Armstrong looked like he may be you've sold some shares this week as well.
51:58
[SPEAKER_02]: So maybe he didn't like the ad as much.
52:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe those, uh, maybe it was backstory, put jackets or a little too expensive.
52:05
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not a good look.
52:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, markets down all of this, like markets down so much.
52:12
[SPEAKER_03]: The Super Bowl ad was a large flop.
52:14
[SPEAKER_03]: And then they have earnings this week.
52:16
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's like all of these things happening.
52:19
[SPEAKER_03]: And he's selling 500 million dollars worth.
52:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It's... Everything.
52:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I got it.
52:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
52:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Tell you, shares.
52:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
52:35
[SPEAKER_03]: I was someone not made a parody of that yet.
52:38
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, all three most important factors, earnings week for Coinbase, bear-mart brutal bear market, like arguably, you know, on the few ingredients the worst that we've ever seen.
52:48
[SPEAKER_03]: And then Super Bowl ad, and he's like, you know what I'm gonna do?
52:51
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm gonna sell a half a billion dollars worth of shares.
52:54
[SPEAKER_03]: and then flex about it at the Super Bowl Anna.
52:57
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, just within it, you'll thought through.
53:00
[SPEAKER_03]: And I like Coinbase.
53:01
[SPEAKER_03]: We like Coinbase over here.
53:02
[SPEAKER_03]: We make tons of videos.
53:04
[SPEAKER_03]: I like Coinbase.
53:05
[SPEAKER_03]: I own their stock.
53:06
[SPEAKER_03]: So I'm saying this to someone who is money in the skin in the game here.
53:11
[SPEAKER_03]: I should have been a little bit more thought through.
53:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, they're they're going after the everything app right.
53:17
[SPEAKER_02]: They're doing prediction markets.
53:18
[SPEAKER_02]: They're doing they're trying to get stocks and tokenize equities and they're obviously the, you know, custody for these big, you know, I bet in all these big firms.
53:26
[SPEAKER_02]: So they're doing their thing.
53:27
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to be here.
53:28
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not going anywhere.
53:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think you could say the same for the gambling stocks, man.
53:33
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been watching these gambling stocks fall off a freaking cliff.
53:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that was a big miss when our leader of prediction markets Brian said it was a super cycle.
53:42
[SPEAKER_02]: I knew it would affect the gambling stocks, not shorting that might have been a huge miss, a miss traded a year for me personally.
53:49
[SPEAKER_02]: But Coinbase is going to be fine.
53:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure Brian Armstrong has a plethora of other shares that he's holding on with tight hands.
53:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And friend of the show, Brian Armstrong, we haven't had him on, but we would love to because he's doing a lot of work down in Washington.
54:03
[SPEAKER_02]: He's always down there.
54:05
[SPEAKER_02]: But they're not the only, you know, partnerships going on and people building on, oh, sorry, excuse me there.
54:12
[SPEAKER_02]: People building on the blockchain, kind of circling back to where I, before I jumped we were talking about, hey, everything's coming on chain, trading on chain hyper liquid.
54:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and we've talked a lot about Ethereum recently, one more reference to that Franklin Templeton interview that we'll be releasing in a couple weeks.
54:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, it was a big Solana.
54:30
[SPEAKER_02]: It was a big Solana episode, and then I saw this news that, uh, 2.6 trillion dollar a web manager city just built on Solana.
54:40
[SPEAKER_02]: So city group, uh, working on Solana again, doing the tokenized efforts, moving stuff on chain.
54:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Super, super exciting for Solana.
54:49
[SPEAKER_02]: We have a great Solana episode.
54:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I wouldn't say it's a Solana episode just with Franklin Templeton, but what I do want to do is I want to go try and get soul strategies back on.
55:00
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't had them on since they went public, Max Kaplan, friend of the show.
55:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll also a Tampa area resident like myself.
55:10
[SPEAKER_02]: will uh i'm gonna reach out to him to try to get him on because i think salon has been been really quiet um and we've nailed this on the show where salonah was the bell of the ball uh twenty five january twenty five with the meme coins and all that and then Ethereum fell out and then it kind of transitioned where Ethereum took the the baton with the you know timely announcement and salonah fell off and now that now they all fell off so i think it's a good time to really start diving into our blue chips again and see what people are working on and where
55:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think that'd be great, man.
55:42
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, Solana is, Solana is doing a lot.
55:46
[SPEAKER_03]: They're on the up and up.
55:46
[SPEAKER_03]: It's interesting.
55:47
[SPEAKER_03]: We've had a lot of people on the pods into different places.
55:51
[SPEAKER_03]: Everyone's talking about Solana.
55:53
[SPEAKER_03]: They think that it's probably under-looked at, probably under, what's the where I'm trying to look for?
56:01
[SPEAKER_03]: I was gonna say, under-deserved, but like, they're probably underrated.
56:04
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the word.
56:05
[SPEAKER_03]: They're underrated with where they're at.
56:06
[SPEAKER_03]: And they have a lot going on.
56:09
[SPEAKER_03]: you know spoiler alert in the podcast that we just had with Franklin Temple 10 he's like Salana's his top choice and they seem to want to use it and even though the most of the the buildings been done on a theory and from an institutional standpoint Salana tends to be the next big one that people are looking at because of its scalability so yeah I love it you put six trillion dollar city building on Salana that's a big step in the right direction man
56:38
[SPEAKER_02]: yeah we had we had one more topic but i'm just gonna bump that um... because we did talk about it the other day i'm gonna bump that to next week it's an update on on a topic we talked about i i opened it up for questions we had a really active chat today uh... thanks everybody for joining and um... any questions throw them in there if there are any will get to them uh... thoughts on the on real estate property what's you know what that is real estate property
57:03
[SPEAKER_03]: I do.
57:04
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
57:04
[SPEAKER_03]: They are a, they're at Oakland Project.
57:07
[SPEAKER_03]: They've been around for a long time.
57:10
[SPEAKER_03]: They try to do like tokenization for the real estate markets.
57:14
[SPEAKER_03]: And they never really caught on too much.
57:19
[SPEAKER_03]: They never really went anywhere.
57:21
[SPEAKER_03]: And it was hard because they had these big regulatory hurdles.
57:25
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a pause right there because I think real estate is real estate and like car titles seem to be like the no brainer to put those on chain for me But you're not good.
57:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't and I wish this was different.
57:38
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you're gonna find some random like add a left field
57:43
[SPEAKER_02]: out of left field start up that's going to come gobble that up real quick like that that's something that the big banks are going to have a huge hold on um and even if even if it's to the point of like hey we're going to buy you up in a swally real quick like it just feels like especially for real estate it's like you're not going to let that you know billion trillion dollar business just disappear to some crypto start up so the regulation on that is is going to
58:10
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it's bottle on.
58:12
[SPEAKER_03]: So that one's been a hard one to get into.
58:14
[SPEAKER_03]: What was a property in the news for you?
58:15
[SPEAKER_02]: No, it's just Tyler Fitz, friend of the show, asking about it.
58:21
[SPEAKER_02]: He said they made a partner with Miami.
58:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Like the city of Miami you're talking about?
58:28
[SPEAKER_02]: This is to, to, to, to, to, fits.
58:32
[SPEAKER_02]: They, um, let me, let me, let me, I'm trying to search on Twitter.
58:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Copy Miami.
58:41
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm looking up to see what the price action has been doing.
58:44
[SPEAKER_03]: We can go in base.
58:47
[SPEAKER_02]: City of Miami continues.
58:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't see anything specifically.
58:51
[SPEAKER_02]: But this is bad.
58:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Bad radio, too quiet researching there.
58:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Google AI, them.
58:57
[SPEAKER_02]: OK.
58:58
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's move on.
59:00
[SPEAKER_02]: We can do some research on that for next time.
59:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Fits.
59:03
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't know.
59:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Google anything on property you're seeing.
59:08
[SPEAKER_03]: Nothing too crazy.
59:11
[SPEAKER_03]: They've had a really hard time since, like, 2024.
59:15
[SPEAKER_03]: They've lost most of their value and the kind of down in the dumps, you know, occasionally they'll have these short squeezes where they see, like a sharp move to the upside, but it's almost always been followed off by more selling pressure.
59:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I guess this is what he's referring to from refreshed Miami, uh, no thanks.
59:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to stay up to date.
59:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So here's a hundred million dollar credit facility.
59:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe that's what he's talking about.
59:35
[SPEAKER_02]: But not something that's on our radar, but we'll, you know, keep tabs on it.
59:39
[SPEAKER_02]: If you have any more updates, fits, let us know.
59:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's wrap it up, we're at the top of the hour.
59:44
[SPEAKER_02]: We really, really appreciate everybody coming.
59:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you guys so much.
59:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I have a lot of fun doing these.
59:50
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, again, in a bear market, doing an hour episode is fun.
59:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And I really love the community.
59:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So last call, give it a like, bottom right, subscribe.
59:58
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll be back next week with a couple episodes early in the week, because we have some things to take care of later in the week.
1:00:04
[SPEAKER_02]: But we appreciate and love you all, and we'll talk to you next time.
1:00:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Have a great week and everybody.