Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 396 - 11/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 396 - 11/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to episode 390.
• 0:17
  Six of the all. Systems Go sports betting
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  podcast. Powered.
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  By rhythm, I'm your host. Josh.
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  Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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  Happy Friday, our work week. Has come to an end.
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  Another huge betting weekend. Ahead of us here, guys.
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  Big college Saturday, big NFL Sunday, and we got a lot to talk
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  about, a lot to wrap up on today's pod, the final pod.
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  Of the week. So I do have for you guys
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  tonight a three pack of college sweats.
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  I got a couple. Plays here in college football
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  got some good sharp. Blind moves some good rhythm
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  edges so looking to I bet some college.
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  Gridiron Tonight and then One. Play in college basketball.
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  Nice sharp dog to fave line move.
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  Hopefully that can come. Through for us tonight as a
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  short money line play, but then. We really got to unveil our card
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  here guys, because unlike. Kind of the way we've.
• 1:08
  Handled it much throughout the year, betting a lot of games.
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  Early trying to pick off good. Numbers.
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  I was thinking this week, let's. Let the dust settle a little
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  bit, because last. Couple weeks kind of been.
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  Betting games a little bit too early getting.
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  Clipped, you know, getting a four and a half.
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  When the line. Closes at 5, so again tried to
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  wait it out. But I'm kind of glad we did.
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  Because I looked at the board today.
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  And after talking. To my buddy Kate Harper last
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  night and the rhythm rundown really pushed me over the edge
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  with a few of these so I do have a four pack.
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  Of NFL plays coming up here on Sunday and then also I have. 2
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  College football plays usually. I'll rate three or more in the
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  Sharp report for vsin.com, so. There could be more college.
• 1:45
  Plays for tomorrow 2 right? Now, but stay tuned.
• 1:49
  Of course, check out my Twitter at Josh Under Score.
• 1:51
  Insights and if you do happen to sign up to get the all systems
• 1:54
  go official best bets from Juice.
• 1:56
  Reel once I play them, once I you.
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  Know bet them. They'll be synced up go right to
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  the juicer. Lab so look out for maybe one or
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  two more college. Football plays for Saturday.
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  Looking back to our last night, guys. 3 and O + 2.39 units.
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  Great night, really hard work. Came to.
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  Fruition, which was great to. See Had a nice win with the
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  Kings in. Overtime.
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  How about? NHL dipping our toe.
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  I'm like, here we go again. Kings got down to nothing.
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  In like the first period. They clawed their way back.
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  They won it in overtime. Shout out to Quinton Byfield for
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  ripping 1. On the on the dot there to win
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  it. For us and then also Alabama A&M
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  had to sweat that one out, but they.
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  Came through late. With a couple big buckets to
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  win, our obscure added extra. Game sharp line move.
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  But the coup de grace, the play of the night.
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  It wasn't easy. We had to sweat it, and Justin
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  Fields did. Everything he could to blow.
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  It for us. But I hope you got the plus. 13
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  1/2. Because The Jets covered.
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  Baby JETS. Jets, Jets Jets Plus 13 1/2.
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  They lose by 13. So real quick, I tweeted this
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  out 'cause I think. It's just the the ultimate test.
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  Case an example of why you got to have the odds logic live odds
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  page I talk. About all the time.
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  If you ever want to give it a shot, remember Odds
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  logic.com/josh 123. But the whole point of.
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  The odds page, the overall point is.
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  To be able to monitor the market.
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  And track which. Direction lines going where
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  sharp movement is going. But it's also.
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  Shopping for the best price? Because I tweeted it out before
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  the game. Yesterday it was mid.
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  Afternoon, I said. Man, there's a lot of different
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  numbers on this Jets. Patriots game.
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  You had some books showing patriots. -12 1/2.
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  You had some books showing. Jets plus 13 1/2.
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  You had a lot of books right at 13.
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  So on the one hand, you know tip.
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  Your cap to the odds. Makers, because they nailed it.
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  Lands right at 13. Any time you're not.
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  Doing well in. Sports betting.
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  You're struggling, remember? We're going up against these
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  guys who set. Incredibly, incredibly sharp
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  numbers. But the whole point there is
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  depending on what number you. Got you either.
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  Won or pushed or pushed? Or lost or pushed, or.
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  Won. So with getting that jets.
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  Plus 13 1/2 it. Was available at ESPN.
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  Bet I hopped on it. I know my buddy Daruch got it as
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  well, and a few of you others did.
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  I'm hoping everyone got the. 13 1/2 but if you didn't.
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  If you. Unfortunately lost a + 12.
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  And 1/2 or. You pushed a 13.
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  I think that right there is the perfect example of why the odds
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  logic live odds page is so important, because if you're
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  going to go divisional. Dog.
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  Primetime dog. Why move too much?
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  It's starting to come back. Again.
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  You got to find that hook the best number and.
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  Because of that. Because of that live odds page.
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  You won with The Jets plus 13 half so.
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  It's great to see. And again, I hope hope everyone
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  did get that hook, although I'm not sure.
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  Everyone did, but again, perfect example of getting the best of
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  the number. Now.
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  Knight might have had. Have been even better because
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  Shohei Otani little golf clap MVP baby.
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  For those of you who following the juicer lap, I got all my.
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  Futures in there as well, but I bet Otani back in May.
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  Plus 155 to an MVP. He wins unanimously, so that was
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  a nice little bankroll. Builder so off a three and O
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  clean sweep, bust out the brooms.
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  Plus 2.39. Units even better with.
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  Otani if you played it. Let's see if we can finish off
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  the week. On a hot note, and.
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  Hopefully steam into the weekend here.
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  So a. Few games I want to touch on.
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  Let's start with some college. Football.
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  Because we got two big games here for tonight and I got plays
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  on both of them. So Clemson, Louisville, let's.
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  Talk about this one first. It's your early game, 7:30 PM
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  Eastern Time. We have Clemson coming in four
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  and five. It's been a disappointing.
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  Year for Dabo Sweeney. They're unranked.
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  They did snap. Though A2 game losing skid by
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  beating Florida State 24 to. 10, covering as a 1 1/2 point home
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  favorite. Meanwhile, Louisville having a
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  Goodyear. Or Louisville, I should say.
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  You can tell I'm a New Englander, I'm a Yankee, a
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  Northerner, so I don't pronounce these correctly.
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  But Louisville, seven and two, ranked 20th in the country.
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  Did, however, just see their three.
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  Game win streak coming on and they lost to Cal 2926 and.
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  Overtime, they were favored by 18 1/2 at.
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  Home in that game, so tough on there.
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  If you had Cal money line, you made a lot of money on that one.
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  But anyway, what have we seen? Across the market.
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  Will this game open Louisville? Listed around a 3 1/2 point
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  home. Favorite and the public says.
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  This line is way too. Short because Louisville is
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  better record, better ranking. Clemson is not the Clemson.
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  We remember with Trevor. Lawrence winning all those
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  championships, so we are seeing right now. 75% of spread bets.
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  Laying it with Louisville. However, Louisville open -3 1/2.
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  You would think getting such heavy betting they'd be up to.
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  -4 - 5. Nope.
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  It's gone the other way. We've seen this line fall now
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  Louisville. -3 1/2 down to minus. 2 1/2 and I'm even seeing
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  some shops juiced up and. Leaning down toward. 2.
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  So it's pretty clear here. Publix on Louisville, but the.
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  Line is going to Clemson, so I'm playing Clemson the.
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  Points here guys. Plus 2 1/2 minus.
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  One O 8 at FanDuel. Again, shop around.
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  Other books are plus 2 1/2. -115 or even down to.
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  Two, I was really. Holding out for the three.
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  I was considering buying it up to. 3 but it would have been. +3
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  at like -125 -? 1. 30 I felt like that was a
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  little bit high. I'll be very frustrated if they
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  lose by three. But hopefully they lose by.
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  One or two or win. This game outright.
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  Because it's pretty clear. Sharp move is going toward
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  Clemson. They're the top contrarian play
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  of the night. They're only getting. 25% of
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  spread bets. And a heavily bet ESPN game,
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  however. They are getting 49% of spread
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  dollars. At DraftKings, so good low bets,
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  higher dollar. Split, then we get into a lot
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  of. System matches on Clemson.
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  Buy low value unranked dog. First sell high ranked opponent.
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  Those those. Unranked dogs versus ranked
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  opponents are 77 and. 64 against the spread this year. 55% and
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  they're. 54% since. The start of last year.
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  Friday Rd. Dogs. 15 and 9 against the
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  spread 62% this year. Short Rd.
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  Dog getting. Four or less.
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  Think of it this way, you're usually going to get around two
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  or three points for home. Field.
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  So if the home team is. Favored by two and a.
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  Half kind of means neutral sight.
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  Maybe this is a pick. Or maybe Clemson.
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  You know, minus a point. But that system is a big
• 7:54
  grinder. System. 661 and 587 against the
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  spread. 53. Percent, 2% ROI since. 2012.
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  And then a little little cherry on top, Little added.
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  Bonus here. I have a rhythm, Green Star
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  recommended play on Clemson Where?
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  Clemson should be plus 1.9. So again I I really try to get
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  the. 3 But it wasn't. Available.
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  It was a little too expensive for me to buy up and get it.
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  So I took the 2 1/2 and I'm hoping we still beat the closing
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  line. Hopefully this thing gets down
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  to two everywhere prior to kick off.
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  But I did take Clemson. Unranked first ranked super
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  contrarian primetime dog. Sharp line move again.
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  Rhythms got a one point. 9 game so I took.
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  Clemson. Plus 2 1/2.
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  Next one for you. 9:00 tonight. This is a big number.
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  Minnesota at Oregon. Minnesota comes in six and
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  three. They've won three of their last
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  four. They just.
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  Took down Michigan State 23 to 20 and OT but they didn't.
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  Cover as a 4 1/2 point. Home favorite, you know.
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  Oregon 8 and one ranked. 8th They've won three straight.
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  Just beat Iowa 18 to 16 but. Luckily for us, Iowa.
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  Covered that number +4 and 1/2 at home, so.
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  What have you seen across the market?
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  Well, this reminds me A. Little bit of the Patriots.
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  Game because Oregon opened as a. 21 1/2 point home.
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  Favorite at some shops. And they've been steamed all the
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  way up. To -25 1/2 so remember.
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  The Jets game it was. Pats -10 1/2 up to 13 1/2
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  started to come back down. We're kind of seeing that here
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  because if you notice, Oregon got up to minus. 25 1/2.
• 9:24
  But if you. Pull up the line history.
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  On your odds logic live odds page.
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  Another great reason I love. The odds logic live odds pages
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  you can tap. The book with your mouse.
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  To pull up the full. Line history so.
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  You know you can. Answer the question hey.
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  Has it only gone up to 25 1/2? Did it go?
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  Further and come back down. Well, that's what happened.
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  Some books over the last 24 hours got as high as Oregon -20.
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  6 1/2. And now it's back down.
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  To 25 1/2. And the 25 and a halfs are.
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  Juiced toward Minnesota plus. 25 1/2. -115.
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  And some books are back down to 25, so it's kind of coming back
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  toward the unpopular Rd. dog. Which is what we saw.
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  Last night, now Minnesota. Has some really good
• 10:04
  correlative. Betting you're getting. 25 1/2.
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  With a dog in a game with. A total of 45. 44 1/2.
• 10:11
  So fair amount of expected point.
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  Score makes it harder game. Script wise for the favorite.
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  To cover the big number, unranked dogs were ranked
• 10:18
  opponents just mention. That same match here as Oregon
• 10:22
  is top. Ten team and and Minnesota's
• 10:24
  unranked, but those teams are 50. 5% against the spread this
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  year. 54% ATS since. The start of last year.
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  Friday Rd. Dogs.
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  Mentioned that a second. AGO with Clemson, 62% ATS this
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  year. Then you look at big.
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  Ten dogs in conference play, so 2.
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  Teams in the Big 10. Face off the dog is. 59%.
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  Against the spread this year. And if the dog is.
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  Getting 25 or more. It's a small sample.
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  But they're three and one. Against the spread this year.
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  Now, another advantage for Minnesota, rest advantage.
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  They're coming off a. Bye week did not play last week.
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  Oregon played on the road. Against a tough Iowa team.
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  Lastly, popped open rhythm. And I noticed 2 Green Star
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  recommended plays on Minnesota. One says Minnesota should be.
• 11:08
  Plus. 20.1 The. Other one says they should be
• 11:11
  plus. 21.3. So Oregon most likely will win
• 11:15
  this game for sure. But can they win by?
• 11:17
  26 or more. I'm going to go the other way
• 11:20
  guys. I like the fact that this got.
• 11:22
  Booted. Up, way high, jacked up.
• 11:24
  Now you're starting to see it come back down.
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  The best price now is plus 25 1/2, so again some shops are
• 11:30
  creeping back down but with rhythm saying it should be
• 11:33
  around. 20 or 21 and we're kind of getting.
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  This this late movement breaking back toward.
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  Minnesota off a by of. Course.
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  With all these system matches. I.
• 11:43
  Played the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
• 11:45
  Plus 25 1/2 now one. College basketball game for you?
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  Tonight we have. I think like 45 games.
• 11:52
  Overall, but there was one that really jumped out to me.
• 11:55
  Because it is a very sharp dog to fave.
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  Line move, which we love. So 9:00 tonight.
• 12:01
  Game 863864. The Providence Friars visiting
• 12:04
  the. Colorado Buffaloes now
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  Providence. Comes in two and one.
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  Just beat Penn one O 6 to 81. Colorado.
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  Comes in two and O they just beat.
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  Eastern Washington and overtime. One O 2 to 97.
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  For me guys, it's all about this.
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  Dog to fave line move. We open this game with
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  Providence. Favored around -1 1/2 on the
• 12:23
  road and we've now flipped. To Colorado. -1 1/2 at home.
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  So we have a dog. To fave line move in.
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  Favor of Colorado. Tells me big money came.
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  In here on the buffs. To flip that.
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  Designation. Then you get to the circa spread
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  spread. Bets they look really good out
• 12:39
  in. Vegas only 33%.
• 12:41
  Of spread bets around Colorado. But it accounts for 99%.
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  Of the dollars here, so low bets higher dollars.
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  From a sharp book, one of the sharpest.
• 12:50
  Arguably out in Vegas circa. Dog to fave line move.
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  You have a bunch of advantages here as as I was.
• 12:55
  Looking at some of. These advanced analytics
• 12:59
  Colorado has the better effective field goal percentage
• 13:01
  50. 5th in the country versus. 64th They.
• 13:04
  Do a better job of taking. Care of the ball, Their turnover
• 13:06
  percentage ranks 27th best. Versus one O 8th.
• 13:10
  For Providence, better offensive rebound percentage, 131st in the
• 13:14
  country versus 179th. And they shoot the three.
• 13:16
  Better 47th versus 137th. Buffs are two and O at.
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  Home, Providence. This is their first Rd. game and
• 13:24
  they got to go to Colorado Mile High.
• 13:26
  You know again where the. Altitude.
• 13:28
  Typically is an advantage for. The kids who are used to it.
• 13:31
  Rest versus tired advantage. Colorado last played on the 8th.
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  Providence last played on the 11th.
• 13:36
  But again, not really rest, but you know, practice time in the
• 13:39
  gym. Hopefully an advantage there.
• 13:41
  Rhythm has two recommendations. On this game -1.1 and -1 point.
• 13:46
  4 for Colorado. So it's not an edge on the side
• 13:50
  laying a 1 1/2. But hopefully an edge here.
• 13:52
  Just to win the game. Straight up.
• 13:54
  So I took Colorado on the money line dog to.
• 13:56
  Fave great split. I got a -?
• 13:59
  115 at fanatics. Shop around.
• 14:01
  That's the best price. A lot of other books are minus.
• 14:03
  120 -, 125. But a little cherry on top.
• 14:06
  Popped open Juice reel. Noticed a 43% sharp mush money
• 14:11
  line edge on Colorado so the. Wise guys and wise gals like you
• 14:15
  guys out there. Who have downloaded juice?
• 14:17
  Reel and synced up your. Books.
• 14:19
  Nearly half, half more or nearly 50% more of these sharper
• 14:24
  players are going Colorado. So let's go buffs dog to fave
• 14:27
  line move. I'm on Colorado.
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  Money line win the damn game at -115 Now we got a big weekend
• 14:34
  ahead and we got a. Lot to talk about, so let's
• 14:36
  start off with. Some college football for
• 14:39
  tomorrow. So as I mentioned.
• 14:40
  At the. Outset of the pod.
• 14:42
  I only have two. Plays right now.
• 14:43
  You know, typically I'm going to write 3 for the vsend.com sharp.
• 14:46
  Report which you can read. Tomorrow morning.
• 14:48
  So I got a few. On my radar, but I want to give
• 14:50
  it another, you know, 12 hours or so to just kind of see.
• 14:53
  How the late movement breaks, but I do have two.
• 14:55
  Games that caught my eye. Here SO.
• 14:58
  The first one I want to look at is.
• 15:00
  Penn State and Michigan State. Now this one is interesting.
• 15:04
  Because. You kind of got a lot.
• 15:05
  Going on in this game, on the one hand, both these teams are
• 15:08
  disappointing. They are both three and six on
• 15:11
  the. Year they're both O and. 6 and
• 15:13
  Big 10 play. Penn State, We thought they'd be
• 15:15
  a, you know, conference or a national championship contender.
• 15:19
  They fired their coach. You know all the.
• 15:20
  All this by now, their starting quarterback gets hurt.
• 15:24
  They almost be Indiana 27 to 24. Remember the incredible?
• 15:27
  Toe tap by that receiver. Late got the win for Indiana to
• 15:30
  keep them undefeated. Michigan State.
• 15:34
  They just. Came up short against Minnesota
• 15:36
  23 to 20 in overtime. So both teams have disappointed.
• 15:39
  So this is a market based play for me.
• 15:42
  I like. Michigan State plus the points
• 15:43
  now. You got to get the. 7 1/2 I got
• 15:46
  plus 7 1/2 -. 112 at FanDuel, but this has been pretty much a
• 15:49
  line freezer. RLM play because the public says
• 15:52
  yeah they're both bad, but still.
• 15:53
  Penn State is the better. School.
• 15:56
  So right now you're getting. 64. Percent of spread bets.
• 15:59
  Lane with Penn State, but Penn State pretty much open. -7 -, 7
• 16:03
  1/2 They're still -7. -7 F so. Why isn't this line moved at all
• 16:07
  if? Everyone's playing Penn State.
• 16:09
  Also got a great bet? Split on the Michigan State
• 16:12
  side, 36% bets but. 62%. Of the dollars.
• 16:17
  You look at also Michigan. State with a.
• 16:20
  Conference Dog Home Conference. Dogs have been good this year
• 16:22
  56. Percent against the spread Big
• 16:25
  10. Conference dogs in particular.
• 16:26
  59% ATS. But also rest first tired.
• 16:30
  Because Michigan State is coming off a by versus Penn State, who?
• 16:34
  Kind of just had their. Super Bowl and came up short.
• 16:36
  So I mean, I don't know if that's.
• 16:38
  Demoralizing or not, but the really great part.
• 16:41
  For me to take Michigan State with the hook.
• 16:44
  Plus 7 1/2. Is that when you pop open
• 16:46
  rhythm? I have two.
• 16:47
  Green Star recommendations on Michigan.
• 16:49
  State, one says. They should be +6. .11.
• 16:52
  Says they should be plus. 5.4. So again.
• 16:56
  There's a lot of books at 7:00. You got to shop around.
• 16:58
  FanDuel does have the. Plus 7 1/2 -, 115 That's what I
• 17:01
  played. But we have a team.
• 17:03
  Off a buy contrarian low. Bets higher dollars sharp.
• 17:06
  Blind freeze some RLM. Because the seven apps.
• 17:08
  Are getting down to seven. Rhythm says it should be around
• 17:11
  a 5 or 6 point game. I took Michigan State plus. 7
• 17:14
  1/2 minus. 112 at FanDuel. Next one for you.
• 17:19
  I tell you what, guys, I've done a.
• 17:20
  Complete 180 on bill. Belichick I love well.
• 17:23
  Let's you know I'm. Not going to bring you back to
• 17:25
  my. Patriots days, but.
• 17:26
  I loved him then, obviously. I hated him and he's his last
• 17:30
  few years in New England were terrible and it used to be hey.
• 17:33
  Is it Brady or Belichick? Well, it was clearly Brady.
• 17:36
  I don't. Know 80%.
• 17:37
  Brady, 20. Percent Belichick.
• 17:38
  Whatever you want to call it, but I'll be honest.
• 17:41
  With you guys, I thought Belichick was just maybe going
• 17:44
  to get fired, going to get bought out.
• 17:46
  It looked terrible to start. Getting blown out by TCU, but
• 17:50
  they've kind of turned. Around a little bit North
• 17:52
  Carolina's at Wake. Forest this weekend and let's
• 17:55
  just look at UNC their last few games.
• 17:58
  California. They lost 21. 18 but.
• 18:00
  Covered the number Virginia. They lost by 1.17 to 16.
• 18:04
  Covered. Probably should have won in
• 18:05
  overtime. Syracuse.
• 18:07
  They beat Syracuse 27 to 10. They beat Stanford 20 to 15.
• 18:12
  So when everything's going. Poorly.
• 18:14
  Belichick looks in over. His head and completely just.
• 18:16
  Out to lunch. This team could have imploded.
• 18:19
  They're not. They've kind of turned it
• 18:21
  around. They're playing better.
• 18:22
  I'm taking the points this weekend it.
• 18:24
  Looks like a really sharp play to back North Carolina.
• 18:27
  You had wake. Forest open this game.
• 18:28
  Around -6 1/2 this line's down to 6.
• 18:32
  A lot of these books are even creeping down.
• 18:34
  Toward 5 1/2 and that's notable. Because if you look at.
• 18:38
  Some of the splits for this game.
• 18:40
  The public is is really. Saying hey, I still.
• 18:42
  Don't believe in Belichick? You know, you're looking at a
• 18:46
  situation where hey, the team of the.
• 18:48
  Far better record is Wake. Forest six and three, so don't
• 18:51
  take the points as. A wake play, right?
• 18:53
  But again, you. Look at kind of the way some of
• 18:56
  these the. The line movement is going.
• 18:58
  It's going only. Toward the Belichick.
• 19:00
  Side so we're seeing North Carolina get that line moving in
• 19:03
  their. Favor 6 1/2.
• 19:05
  Getting down to six and now 5. And a half they're.
• 19:07
  Also a dog low total, very low total of 30.
• 19:10
  Seven and a half, 38 1/2 so. The team that's playing better.
• 19:13
  With a line. Move in their favor.
• 19:15
  Their conference dog lastly popped open rhythm.
• 19:19
  To green star recommendations saying Bell check should be
• 19:22
  plus. 3.3 or 3.8. So I grabbed the six.
• 19:26
  Here guys, I'm playing. A UNC team that might.
• 19:29
  Lose this game, but can you lose by 5 or less?
• 19:31
  Can you lose by a field goal? Hey, a win.
• 19:33
  Would be great, but that's a good.
• 19:34
  Discrepancy line moving in your. Favor.
• 19:37
  Excuse me? Rhythm says it should be around
• 19:39
  a three or four point game. So I did take UNC. +6.
• 19:43
  Now over to the NFL. Because I've I teased a couple
• 19:47
  games yesterday that I added, but let's just talk the full
• 19:50
  card here for for the. NFL Now.
• 19:53
  First one that I added today was the Chicago Bears.
• 19:57
  Plus, three Bears are on the road at Minnesota.
• 19:59
  Minnesota pretty much open -3? But it's juiced toward Chicago.
• 20:04
  And it's touched 2 1/2 at some shop.
• 20:06
  So across the board it's. Now down to Chicago Plus.
• 20:09
  Three at -115 or Chicago plus. 2 1/2.
• 20:12
  So the line's been. Moving or juiced toward the
• 20:14
  Chicago side. It's a 5050 bet.
• 20:17
  Split at DK Public doesn't know what to do, but you do have a
• 20:19
  divisional dog Angle here with Chicago, these divisional dogs.
• 20:23
  53% against the spread over the last five years.
• 20:27
  Non division dogs are like 50.5%.
• 20:29
  I like the split at circa though.
• 20:31
  Only 21% bets but 70% dollars on the bears.
• 20:35
  I have two green. Star recommended plays on the
• 20:37
  Bears, one says. The Bears should be minus. 0.11
• 20:42
  says. The Bears should be. -1.1.
• 20:45
  So we're getting a dog plus. Three, you got to shop around.
• 20:47
  I got the +3 at Fanatics with the bears -1. 15 Again, you got
• 20:51
  to get the three. Because if they lose.
• 20:52
  By three, you want to push instead.
• 20:54
  Of lose that bet, but if you remember the last time.
• 20:56
  We had a a rhythm situation where they're saying this dog is
• 21:00
  going to win. Outright, it was Kentucky
• 21:02
  against. Florida.
• 21:03
  And it was a college. Game it was.
• 21:05
  Sunday night, maybe 2 weeks ago, but I remember Kentucky was
• 21:08
  getting like. 3 1/2 and rhythm. Says they should be favored by
• 21:11
  three. So if I can get a Bears team
• 21:13
  with the market liability divisional log, Rhythm says they
• 21:16
  should actually be. Favored by a point.
• 21:18
  I jumped on the plus 3 divisional dog Bears and that
• 21:22
  was plus 3 -, 115 at Fanatics. Next one for you going Carolina,
• 21:27
  Carolina at Atlanta. This is another line freeze play
• 21:31
  or some reverse line. Movement because we.
• 21:32
  Open this game Atlanta. Around a 3 1/2 point favorite at
• 21:36
  home. Publix going Atlanta 60% of
• 21:39
  bets, but they're not up to 4. They're juiced toward the
• 21:42
  Carolina side, +3 and half -1. 15 -, 120.
• 21:46
  Some books creeping toward plus three.
• 21:48
  So the market liabilities on Carolina, they're only getting
• 21:51
  40% of of spread bets, but 57% of spread dollars at DK, at
• 21:57
  CIRCO. Listen to this. 38% of spread
• 21:59
  bets, 90% of dollars on Carolina.
• 22:02
  Another divisional dog angle which we love to see.
• 22:06
  And then also wanting to kind of bet against Atlanta after just
• 22:09
  being. Overseas and losing in.
• 22:11
  Overtime in Germany and kind of by low as well on Carolina, who
• 22:15
  lost straight up 17 to 7 last week against New Orleans.
• 22:19
  Lastly, what sent me over? The top to take Carolina plus 3
• 22:22
  1/2 rhythm has a Green Star recommended play saying.
• 22:25
  Carolina should be plus 2.4. So give me the three.
• 22:28
  And 1/2 with the hook I got plus. 3 1/2 - 110 at Fanatics
• 22:32
  Let's. Go Bryce Young.
• 22:34
  Next one for you. Kansas City Chiefs.
• 22:37
  Denver Broncos, are you? Sensing a theme A.
• 22:39
  Lot of divisional dogs to throw them edges.
• 22:42
  Well, Kansas City's coming off a bye.
• 22:43
  We all know Andy Reid off a bye. He's been awesome.
• 22:45
  And he's like 24 and 4. Straight up something like that.
• 22:48
  But anyway, we have seen this line move a little bit toward
• 22:50
  Kansas City, KS City opens, you know, minus. 2 1/2 they're.
• 22:53
  Up to minus. 3 1/2 - 4 So if you tell me like KC off a bye line
• 22:58
  move. Hey, I'll give you that.
• 22:59
  But I'm going to buy low on Denver in the spot now.
• 23:03
  You can get a plus. Four with Denver at fanatics
• 23:05
  -110 Every other book is 3 1/2. So if you're going to play
• 23:09
  Denver. With me, you got to get that.
• 23:10
  Four, it's an inflated contrarian dog.
• 23:13
  Because again, you were 2 1/2. Off the opener.
• 23:15
  Now you're getting 3 1/2 or 4. They are contrarian.
• 23:18
  So if you're telling me public. Was on Denver.
• 23:20
  And lines going to Kansas. City I would like.
• 23:22
  Kansas City More. But actually Publix.
• 23:24
  Loading up on the Chiefs. Right now, the Broncos.
• 23:27
  Are only getting 37% of bets at DK, only 39% of bets at Circo.
• 23:32
  So you're an inflated contrarian divisional dog.
• 23:35
  You have the. Advantage of Mile High again
• 23:37
  home field. We just talked about Colorado
• 23:39
  Buffs. In basketball.
• 23:41
  But then here's the kicker. I have two.
• 23:44
  Green Star recommended plays on Denver one Denver plus 2.4, the
• 23:49
  second one Denver plus one point. 6 So again, Mahomes.
• 23:52
  Wins a lot of these. Games.
• 23:53
  Can they win by three? And you win.
• 23:55
  Because he got. Plus 3 1/2 + 4 with Denver.
• 23:58
  That's my goal. But Rhythm says it should be
• 24:00
  around a. A2 or 2 1/2 point game.
• 24:02
  We're getting 4 at Fanatics I took plus 4 Denver fanatics
• 24:06
  -110. For this weekend.
• 24:08
  And then last play for me Sunday night.
• 24:11
  Should be a great game. Maybe the preview of the NFC
• 24:13
  Championship? Detroit Lions?
• 24:15
  Philadelphia Eagles. Now the public loves the lions
• 24:19
  here. Lions are getting nearly 70.
• 24:21
  Percent of spread bets at DraftKings.
• 24:24
  But. This game opened Philly minus. 1
• 24:26
  -, 1 and a. Half and even though the.
• 24:27
  Public is hammering Detroit. It's not down to a pick or going
• 24:31
  dog to fave in favor of Detroit. It's actually going further
• 24:34
  toward. Philly so think of it you know
• 24:37
  logically if Publix hammer in Detroit odds makers sports books
• 24:40
  they're taking in a flood of Detroit money yeah the wrong
• 24:43
  team is favored Detroit's going to hammer them and went out
• 24:45
  right OK well why are the odds makers now giving.
• 24:48
  You More points to take Detroit. Red flag right there.
• 24:51
  I'm fading this trendy dog. I'm going Philadelphia on the
• 24:54
  money line. I got a -140 yesterday.
• 24:57
  I think they're on -145 right now.
• 24:59
  But if you're giving me Jalen. Hertz at home?
• 25:03
  Where he has been, absolutely. Awesome, straight up on the
• 25:05
  money line. Let.
• 25:07
  Me see if I still. Have this Jalen Hertz at home as
• 25:10
  a home favorite straight up. 24 and four in his career, 86% I'm
• 25:15
  playing the. The faith, the trendy dog.
• 25:16
  Again on Sunday Night Football, so it's not just a heavily.
• 25:19
  Bet game, but the most heavily bet game.
• 25:22
  So this is a recipe. To bet against the drunk.
• 25:24
  Guys at the bar saying you go to him with the Lions and go the
• 25:27
  other way. And follow that sharp line.
• 25:29
  Move that. RLM in favor of Philly?
• 25:31
  So I played Philly to. Win the damn game around -140.
• 25:36
  So that about dozen guys. Man, we talked about a lot.
• 25:39
  On today's podcast again. College basketball, College
• 25:42
  Little college college football, Little college basketball.
• 25:46
  And a lot of NFL. And hopefully we'll have a knock
• 25:48
  on wood successful weekend. Upcoming, but as always guys
• 25:52
  going to wrap things up first by saying.
• 25:54
  Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 25:56
  you for tuning in, thank you for grinding and.
• 25:59
  It's always nice when we can. You know, win together and.
• 26:02
  Sweep the board and go 3 and O last.
• 26:03
  Night that was great to see because.
• 26:05
  It tells me that the hard work is paying off.
• 26:07
  And finally, the brakes. Are going our way a little bit.
• 26:09
  After that wretched cold. Stretch we went through.
• 26:12
  But as always, if you want to help me grow the pod.
• 26:14
  If you appreciate the insights, please would you give this?
• 26:16
  Podcast A five star review. On Spotify or.
• 26:19
  ITunes leave a nice comment. Click the follow button.
• 26:22
  Recommend the pod to a friend. That would all.
• 26:24
  Be very much appreciated next if you.
• 26:27
  Enjoy this style of betting. Data-driven, sharp contrarian
• 26:30
  betting. Focusing on what the numbers are
• 26:32
  saying, not what our bias and our gut is telling us.
• 26:35
  Focusing on line movement. Split system matches if that's
• 26:38
  the case in this. Approach.
• 26:40
  Has given you now a. Philosophy A guiding light, a
• 26:42
  way to. Interpret and read the market,
• 26:44
  taking a contrarian approach. Beating some closing numbers if.
• 26:48
  Any of that is the. Case.
• 26:49
  And you want to learn. More about data-driven betting.
• 26:51
  Or you have someone in your life who could.
• 26:53
  Use some data-driven tips. Of course, the holidays are
• 26:55
  coming up, so if you want to if. You want to get some holiday
• 26:58
  shopping done early, which you'll be glad you know once.
• 27:01
  Christmas, Hanukkah comes you. Already you already got a.
• 27:03
  Few things you don't have to. Freak out and go run and figure
• 27:06
  something out. And get you know.
• 27:07
  Your dad, a collared shirt again, or a pair of socks?
• 27:10
  You should go to. Amazon.com.
• 27:11
  Type in the NFL, sharp. Betting.
• 27:14
  Playbook. It's my new book.
• 27:15
  It's now three months old, Which?
• 27:17
  Is crazy, but I'm very. Proud of it.
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  It's got all the insights had about the NFL.
• 27:20
  From a day driven approach. You can also.
• 27:22
  Pick up my first book on Amazon.com.
• 27:25
  The Everything Guide to Sports. Betting, so it'll be pretty
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  awesome as well. But grab one or the other
• 27:29
  support. The team make me happy.
• 27:31
  Get some more knowledge on your end, bring them to the sports
• 27:33
  book. I'll sign them for you and.
• 27:34
  I'll buy a beer. Or ginger ale.
• 27:36
  We'll sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 27:39
  and Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't.
• 27:40
  What are you waiting for? Juice Reel where you can.
• 27:44
  A rhythm I. Should I should say?
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  Where you can get. The AI backed.
• 27:47
  Models and predictions for game butts and player props.
• 27:49
  As well as Juice Reel. Where if you.
• 27:51
  Want to tip your podcast host? You can do it in the.
• 27:53
  Form of signing up for the $4.99.
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  Cents a week, Best bets. On the juice.
• 27:57
  Reel app you're. Also going to get the Robo
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  Jackson. Plays the sharp mush indicators,
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  the arbitrage opportunities. All when you download juice reel
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  so download. Rhythm download juice reel get
• 28:07
  that app those. Apps on your phone?
• 28:08
  Give them a five star review in the App Store next.
• 28:12
  Do you have a live odds page? Well, I always talk about odds
• 28:14
  logic, but. Last night was the perfect
• 28:16
  example. You could have shopped around
• 28:18
  and gotten -12 1/2 Patriots and won your bet.
• 28:21
  You could have shopped around and got.
• 28:22
  Plus 13 1/2 of The Jets and won your bet if you got the 13 you
• 28:26
  push. So I know it pushes in a loss
• 28:28
  but just goes to show by doing some leg work.
• 28:31
  By tracking the market by. Finding the best price you.
• 28:33
  Can increase your chances of winning and look.
• 28:35
  No further than last night. So if you want to give odds
• 28:38
  logic a shot. I think it's.
• 28:40
  The best live odds page. Around. 7 day free trial 50.
• 28:43
  Percent off your first. Month, just make sure you go to.
• 28:45
  Oddslogic.com/josh 123. Lastly, Novig, it's a betting.
• 28:52
  Exchange. If you haven't downloaded Novig
• 28:54
  yet, do it right now. It's like a sports book, but
• 28:56
  it's better because you're not betting.
• 28:58
  Against the house, you're betting against other betters.
• 29:00
  That means when you win, you're not getting limited.
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  But most importantly, Novig, it's in the name.
• 29:04
  You payless juice. Instead of -115. -120.
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  Sides and totals. You're getting better money.
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  Lines and sides and totals are -1 O 5 -, 1 O 8.
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  Plus one O 2 plus one O 4 so you can win at the same rate at
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  Novig. That you do at.
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  DraftKings, FanDuel Circle, whatever.
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  But actually make more money because you're risking less
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  juice. So download Novig when you.
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  Fund your account, little promo. Field put in.
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  Josh 123 for 100%. Deposit match up to 25 bucks.
• 29:32
  So that does it guys as we wrap up the work week here lastly.
• 29:35
  Two final thoughts, one where. Whether I see you at the
• 29:37
  Borgata? And Atlantic City Twin.
• 29:39
  River in Rhode Island the. Brooklyn, New Hampshire.
• 29:41
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in. Connecticut, the Encore in
• 29:44
  Boston. Plain Ridge Park.
• 29:45
  Casino MGM Springfield. Nashua, my neck of the woods at
• 29:49
  the Nash on the border. Of New Hampshire, Massachusetts.
• 29:52
  Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 29:54
  Or Billy Walter sends his number runners.
• 29:56
  Where the lowest juice. Possible is found at the South
• 29:58
  point or sweat and sharp contrarian.
• 30:00
  Plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you catch a
• 30:03
  big ticket. At circa you're.
• 30:04
  Going to see me at the book. We're going to bust.
• 30:06
  Out a a. Bust out a.
• 30:11
  A broom from the janitor's closet.
• 30:12
  Do a little. Fred a stair dance.
• 30:14
  Because it was a nice sweep last night.
• 30:15
  Show me a Jets plus 13F. You better got on that hook,
• 30:19
  Alabama A&M. Kings in overtime, Otani MVP.
• 30:23
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 30:24
  Will post up at the book so at some place here for tonight.
• 30:27
  So as always, guys, whether you're coming off a three and O.
• 30:30
  Or an O and three. A1 and two or A2.
• 30:33
  And one. Whether you're hot, whether
• 30:34
  you're cold, no matter the UPS or downs.
• 30:36
  That come with betting you. Just got to stick with it and
• 30:38
  keep grinding. So if we can stick.
• 30:40
  To the model in the blueprint find games that fit our model
• 30:44
  against the public with. The House with the pros.
• 30:46
  Flat bet Avoid. Parlays and get that COV.
• 30:48
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 30:51
  So have a great weekend everybody.
• 30:53
  Let's see if we. Can catch some of these tickets
• 30:55
  over the next couple days. We'll be right back at it on
• 30:57
  Monday for episode 390. Seven of the all systems go
• 31:01
  sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 31:04
  Good luck everybody, have a great Friday.
• 31:06
  And an even better weekend.