Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 4 Showdown | May 11, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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PGA Round 4 Showdown | May 11, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:48
Speaker 1: What's going on, golf fans. It's your boy Gus Lee
0:50
Speaker 1: here with our Round four live stream for the Truest Championship.
0:53
Speaker 1: Gonna get you guys ready for all of your Showdown exposure,
0:55
Speaker 1: going through a weather report, some shots gained metrics together,
0:58
Speaker 1: and look at how I'm going out there and my
1:00
Speaker 1: player pool, as well as some strategy over there on DraftKings,
1:03
Speaker 1: including how you should be going out there and targeting
1:05
Speaker 1: your contest as well as what you should do when
1:08
Speaker 1: you're actually putting together your lineup. So any questions feel
1:11
Speaker 1: free to go ahead and let me know down in
1:12
Speaker 1: the chat. But the first thing I needed to do
1:14
Speaker 1: was to go ahead and smash that like Bun. And
1:16
Speaker 1: also there's to subscribe to the channel over here, so
1:19
Speaker 1: you guys don't miss any of the content to come.
1:21
Speaker 1: But today ended up being a good day in the
1:23
Speaker 1: showdown streets for us. If you took a look at
1:25
Speaker 1: the morning versus the afternoon, you could see that the
1:27
Speaker 1: PM guys that we towed up yesterday played to about
1:30
Speaker 1: a point eight easier stroke gaverage. And if you take
1:33
Speaker 1: a look at the low rounds of the day from
1:34
Speaker 1: the morning, they came from the exact kind of tea
1:37
Speaker 1: times that we pointed out. So if we sorted out
1:39
Speaker 1: there by today, see Matsiyama had the low rounds and
1:42
Speaker 1: you teed off about eleven am local time. Bridgeman was
1:44
Speaker 1: a little bit before that at about ten oh five.
1:47
Speaker 1: But both of those squarely within that goldilocks zone that
1:50
Speaker 1: we were looking to for that leverage. So if you
1:53
Speaker 1: took that strategy, stacked mostly that second half of tea times,
1:56
Speaker 1: mixed in a few of those early guys for some leverage,
1:59
Speaker 1: it could have gone you onto the absolute nuts. Well
2:01
Speaker 1: I didn't have the nuts. I didn't take down any
2:04
Speaker 1: of the GPPs that I entered. I did end up
2:06
Speaker 1: profitable on the day, which ended up being nice, And
2:09
Speaker 1: a lot of that comes down to that weather edge
2:11
Speaker 1: that we looked at. It Though it is a similar
2:13
Speaker 1: weather day over there for tomorrow, similar type of tea times,
2:16
Speaker 1: I should say, over there for the final day, it
2:18
Speaker 1: is two sums off of whole number one. We're gonna
2:21
Speaker 1: have those placement points in place, so any sort of
2:24
Speaker 1: weather edge for tomorrow you can't really go all in on.
2:27
Speaker 1: Speaking of though, let's take a look at this weather
2:29
Speaker 1: forecast where you can see for the first hour or so,
2:31
Speaker 1: it's gonna be cooler about seven eight am. I believe
2:34
Speaker 1: they're starting at eight, so going off when it's mostly
2:37
Speaker 1: warmed up already, So I don't think the temperatures are
2:39
Speaker 1: going to be as big a factor today. For the
2:42
Speaker 1: first maybe four hours of play, it was a lot
2:44
Speaker 1: cooler than what you had later on, which is why
2:46
Speaker 1: you had such a drastic difference into scoring. So with
2:49
Speaker 1: it being a little bit flattered tomorrow, the winds also
2:52
Speaker 1: not really kicking up all that much there in the afternoon,
2:55
Speaker 1: I think scoring could be slightly favorable towards the later guys,
2:59
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's the actual conditions that are
3:01
Speaker 1: going to be favorable. If anything, i'd rather have some
3:04
Speaker 1: of these late morning guys that are going to have
3:06
Speaker 1: more receptive greens than what they have in the afternoon.
3:09
Speaker 1: But the talent level and the form of those guys
3:12
Speaker 1: that are going off later on are going to make
3:14
Speaker 1: up for that in my opinion. So in terms of
3:16
Speaker 1: the morning versus afternoon splits, I think it's going to
3:19
Speaker 1: be close to even out there on Sunday. But because
3:22
Speaker 1: we have the place and points in play, from the
3:24
Speaker 1: strategy perspective, you're going to need some of those later
3:26
Speaker 1: starters because of the bump that they get with their projections.
3:29
Speaker 1: If you have players starting in the top five, top ten,
3:32
Speaker 1: they're going to be priorities over there in your optimizers.
3:34
Speaker 1: You're going to get a lot of those guys by default,
3:37
Speaker 1: kind of like you did for today, but those late
3:39
Speaker 1: or late morning guys. So just to show you some
3:42
Speaker 1: of those tea times over here, this is where you
3:44
Speaker 1: can get the leverage in your lineup. So I'm starting
3:47
Speaker 1: about nine point thirty where I probably where I would
3:50
Speaker 1: start looking for those players. It's warmed up by then.
3:52
Speaker 1: You've got some legit studs on this portion of the board.
3:56
Speaker 1: It's not even like you have to use a pure
3:58
Speaker 1: slap dick in the six k range to go out
3:59
Speaker 1: there and get this leverage. You can use a legit stud.
4:02
Speaker 1: You've got minbu Lee, a Victor Hoblind in this range,
4:05
Speaker 1: a Robert McIntyre who's squarely in that seven K range,
4:08
Speaker 1: zal Taurus, Aaron Raye who's usable all of the studs,
4:12
Speaker 1: even the mid to lower tier guys. If you want
4:14
Speaker 1: to be real bold about it and trying to find
4:16
Speaker 1: somebody that is sub ten percent owned, you could use
4:19
Speaker 1: in this portion of the t time board. So you're
4:21
Speaker 1: gonna need some later guys, just because it is a
4:23
Speaker 1: Sunday showdown slate. But with the slightly more receptive conditions,
4:27
Speaker 1: you could see a few rounds like what you had
4:29
Speaker 1: from Hedeki and Bridgeman today. Not to say that you're
4:32
Speaker 1: gonna get those you know, exact two players out there
4:35
Speaker 1: in every single lineup, but if you're using a set
4:37
Speaker 1: of one hundred and fifty lineups and you're using maybe
4:39
Speaker 1: a handful five to seven players that are going off early,
4:43
Speaker 1: if you can hit on one or even two of
4:44
Speaker 1: those guys and get a minus four a minus five round,
4:48
Speaker 1: that's how you find yourselves towards the top end of
4:50
Speaker 1: the GPPs. So well mention the strategy aspects later, how
4:53
Speaker 1: you can go and find some of that leverage when
4:55
Speaker 1: you need it. Let's focus on the player poll before
4:58
Speaker 1: we do so, and the main thing I like to
5:00
Speaker 1: look at is the same as what we do for
5:01
Speaker 1: rounds two and three. Take a look at some of
5:03
Speaker 1: the round three ball striking stats primarily, but I'll also
5:06
Speaker 1: incorporate some of the full event stuff as well. So
5:09
Speaker 1: because we have a full fifty four hole sample size
5:11
Speaker 1: at this course. It's all at the same exact event, right,
5:14
Speaker 1: It's not like it's coming from the last event before
5:16
Speaker 1: that or anything. It's all for this specific golf course.
5:19
Speaker 1: He can look at that for making some of your
5:21
Speaker 1: conviction plays up top. But to find some of those
5:24
Speaker 1: lower rowned players that are going off early, I really
5:26
Speaker 1: like to look at these round three stats. So let's
5:28
Speaker 1: start over here with the ball striking tab. And I'm
5:31
Speaker 1: not so much looking for guys that are in that
5:33
Speaker 1: top five, because if you're in the top five at
5:35
Speaker 1: this point, your ball striking for the league has been
5:37
Speaker 1: on point most days. I'm trying to find some diamonds
5:40
Speaker 1: in the rough here. So Brian Campbell, he's towards the
5:43
Speaker 1: middle end of the board. He's got the kind of
5:45
Speaker 1: t time that would make sense for this. And Ryan
5:47
Speaker 1: Gerardi gun see he also gained over two strokes over
5:49
Speaker 1: there with the ball striking. Both of them were okay
5:52
Speaker 1: with the putter today, not carrying their game though by
5:55
Speaker 1: any means I mean wou Lee he hit the ball
5:57
Speaker 1: well but lost over three strokes with the putter. He
6:00
Speaker 1: could be a look for some leverage at T forty six.
6:02
Speaker 1: Austin Ekro might be a little bit too grimy of
6:05
Speaker 1: a play over there at plus one, but his ball
6:07
Speaker 1: striking was favorable, with losing about three strokes putting, and
6:10
Speaker 1: Alex Norrin here over a shots gamed over there at
6:13
Speaker 1: the ball striking categories that lost three strokes over there
6:16
Speaker 1: with the flat stick. These would be the sort of
6:18
Speaker 1: players that if you're looking to get a grimy play
6:21
Speaker 1: down low, I'm playing at least two or three of
6:23
Speaker 1: those guys that imagine out there in my player pole,
6:26
Speaker 1: And well, I haven't quite built my player pole yet,
6:28
Speaker 1: so I don't know exactly who those guys are going
6:30
Speaker 1: to be. You know, those are the first few candidates
6:33
Speaker 1: that I'm going to go through for that kind of thing.
6:34
Speaker 1: And it's not even just those kind of plays. I'll
6:37
Speaker 1: look for some short game regression candidates. I'll also look
6:39
Speaker 1: for just high upside players, so high birdy percentage, good
6:43
Speaker 1: par five scores to go out there and throw into
6:45
Speaker 1: lineups as well, because if a guy that's going off
6:47
Speaker 1: early is going to get there in terms of a
6:49
Speaker 1: DraftKings optimal, it's gonna be because they made seven or
6:52
Speaker 1: eight berdies because they had a birdie streak out there
6:55
Speaker 1: at some point, potentially even a bogie free round to
6:57
Speaker 1: add on top of that. If you go out there
6:59
Speaker 1: and score in terms of raw DraftKings fantasy scoring, you
7:03
Speaker 1: need players that have the kind of firepower to get there.
7:05
Speaker 1: You know, your coachers, your Kiseners of the world that
7:07
Speaker 1: are more a par specialists out here on tour at
7:10
Speaker 1: this point would not be the sort of players that
7:12
Speaker 1: you'd want to take going off early. Neither of those
7:14
Speaker 1: players are in this field, so you don't have to
7:15
Speaker 1: worry about those two in particular, but it's that type
7:18
Speaker 1: of player that you want to avoid. The more conservative,
7:21
Speaker 1: lower birdy percentage players out there on tour are ones
7:23
Speaker 1: that I wouldn't be using as chasers. I'm more so
7:26
Speaker 1: looking for the players that are a little bit more
7:28
Speaker 1: aggressive about it. So Sibu Kim kind of comes to
7:30
Speaker 1: mind there. A Minwu Lee is also a high birdy
7:33
Speaker 1: percentage player. And just to sort this out here by leaderboard,
7:36
Speaker 1: I'll get a sip of my red bull here as
7:38
Speaker 1: well to try and find some of the more aggressive
7:40
Speaker 1: guys going off early, like a Cam Davis, for example.
7:43
Speaker 1: He's the number three birdier, better percentage player and all
7:46
Speaker 1: the PGA Tour you know you have. I believe Rory
7:49
Speaker 1: and Scottie Scheffler are the two players that are ranking
7:51
Speaker 1: ahead of him, and then you've got Cam Davis, so
7:54
Speaker 1: T thirty eight, he might be one of those players
7:56
Speaker 1: I'd look to in that situation. Hovlin's a high birdy
8:02
Speaker 1: percentage guy. He hasn't even had the best year other
8:05
Speaker 1: than his one win over there at vos Bar, but
8:07
Speaker 1: he's a number eleven birdier better percentage player on the
8:10
Speaker 1: PGA Tour. I love to go bear. That's like Grimy
8:14
Speaker 1: one two though, because he's plus plus one now. He
8:17
Speaker 1: is an extremely high birdy percentage guy. Though, those would
8:20
Speaker 1: be the kind of players they might want to add
8:22
Speaker 1: on top of that as well. So that's what I'm
8:24
Speaker 1: looking for out there, for some of that leverage. When
8:26
Speaker 1: I'm trying to find that conviction plays towards the top
8:28
Speaker 1: end of the board. That's where I'm looking at the
8:30
Speaker 1: full event stuff. So we've got this sorted by the
8:32
Speaker 1: leaderboard right now, and what you'll see at the top
8:35
Speaker 1: end is that Shane Lowry's got the most shots gained
8:38
Speaker 1: ball striking, also the most shots gained approach. So if
8:41
Speaker 1: I'm looking for a conviction play that immediately stands out. Also,
8:44
Speaker 1: the fact that Sebstrak has gained over seven strokes putting
8:47
Speaker 1: to this point is a little bit of a red
8:48
Speaker 1: flag over there. At the other guy at Team one,
8:51
Speaker 1: Justin Thomas, continues to hit the ball well without making
8:53
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of putts. Today, he did flip that
8:56
Speaker 1: a bit. He ended up going out there and gaining
8:58
Speaker 1: about two strokes putting, so he's got another decent stat profile.
9:02
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry my favorite of what we've seen here so far.
9:05
Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell is now balanced across the board, but that
9:07
Speaker 1: is partially because he lost strokes putting today, which is
9:10
Speaker 1: not surprising based on how well he putted the first
9:13
Speaker 1: few days. The question mark now is whether he has
9:15
Speaker 1: another struggle bus out there tomorrow or if he potentially
9:18
Speaker 1: bounces back after losing those three shots gained putting. That's
9:21
Speaker 1: kind of a tough one to narrow down. I would
9:23
Speaker 1: side towards him bouncing back after having that rough round.
9:26
Speaker 1: They'll say, have guys like Adeki up here that gained
9:28
Speaker 1: a bunch of strokes today. He's been balanced, only losing
9:33
Speaker 1: off the tee. As he can see there, of the
9:35
Speaker 1: shots gained profiles that we've gone through. You know, guys
9:38
Speaker 1: like JT. Shane Lowry really sticking out as players that
9:41
Speaker 1: I'll probably get over the field on. And these players
9:44
Speaker 1: like a Sam Burns that are gaining five strokes putting
9:47
Speaker 1: potential fade candidates out there in my player poll. So
9:50
Speaker 1: I'm a huge proponent of going after that ball striking security,
9:53
Speaker 1: that consistency out there from day to day and fading
9:56
Speaker 1: a lot of that variance with the short game. So
9:58
Speaker 1: for example Tony fi Now who's doing it mostly with
10:01
Speaker 1: the putter, that doesn't stand out as a very sustainable
10:04
Speaker 1: kind of shots gains profile. A Jacob Bridgeman gaining over
10:07
Speaker 1: six strokes with the putter and then losing in the
10:09
Speaker 1: other three categories, you know, that is a massive red
10:12
Speaker 1: flag if I've ever seen one before. That's how I
10:14
Speaker 1: use the full event stuff to my advantage, and it's
10:17
Speaker 1: mostly with these guys towards the top, whereas the round
10:20
Speaker 1: three stuff, the more specific do you go with the
10:22
Speaker 1: data is where I'm trying to find some of my
10:25
Speaker 1: lower owned plays. So that's how I use the shots
10:27
Speaker 1: gained out there to my advantage. If there's any specific
10:30
Speaker 1: players that you were curious about on how they either
10:32
Speaker 1: play today or potentially over the entire events. You can
10:35
Speaker 1: let me go down in the live chat and I'll
10:37
Speaker 1: get back to that here in just a little bit.
10:39
Speaker 1: But that gives you the general sense over there, and
10:41
Speaker 1: it's not a complete, you know, something that I live by.
10:44
Speaker 1: It's not like an absolute steadfast role that I go
10:47
Speaker 1: out there and use. But in general, these ball strikers
10:50
Speaker 1: are the guys that I plant my flag behind it.
10:52
Speaker 1: There will always be exceptions based on narrative, especially when
10:55
Speaker 1: it's a newer guy out there and tour that hasn't
10:57
Speaker 1: proven themselves under the gun, but all the guys at
11:00
Speaker 1: the top, with the exception of a Keith Mitchell, have
11:03
Speaker 1: proven it before. You've got major winners up there. You've
11:06
Speaker 1: got Substraca who's won three times. You've got Shane Lowry,
11:09
Speaker 1: who he's choked a few times over the last few years,
11:12
Speaker 1: but he's been in contention enough where I'm not really
11:14
Speaker 1: worried about it out there with SHANEO. Everyone up here
11:17
Speaker 1: is a stud so you kind of you got to
11:20
Speaker 1: use the shots game metrics to read through them a
11:22
Speaker 1: little bit. So let me know if there's anyone that
11:24
Speaker 1: you're curious about whether it's ownership any of that sort
11:27
Speaker 1: of stuff. But in terms of the contests that are available,
11:30
Speaker 1: they're a little bit bigger than rounds two and three.
11:32
Speaker 1: So for the DraftKings Board, you know, they're at least
11:35
Speaker 1: giving us bigger payouts, but they're not the best in
11:38
Speaker 1: terms of the payout structure. You can see over here
11:40
Speaker 1: in the big five five five you have a twenty
11:42
Speaker 1: percent to first place, which isn't the worst GPP that
11:45
Speaker 1: I've seen, but especially in a big payout kind of
11:47
Speaker 1: contest like that, it's not my favorite. Over here in
11:50
Speaker 1: the twenty five dollars GPP, it is also a fifth
11:53
Speaker 1: over there to first place, which is sub ideal, but
11:56
Speaker 1: you're not going to see me max entering that contest
11:58
Speaker 1: all that often. I'm more so looking at this thirty
12:01
Speaker 1: k contest, this five dollars GPP, where it's seven hundred
12:04
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars to go out there and max enter it.
12:06
Speaker 1: This one is a sixth the first place, so it's
12:08
Speaker 1: a little bit better than that fit the first, but
12:10
Speaker 1: not by all that much. You also have a lot
12:12
Speaker 1: of single entries that you'll see me playing in, whether
12:15
Speaker 1: it's the thirty three dollars the twelve dollars single entries
12:17
Speaker 1: that you have, this one a little bit over ten
12:19
Speaker 1: percent to first a flat payout structure. Afterwards on there,
12:22
Speaker 1: let me see if I can find the twelve dollars
12:24
Speaker 1: one as well, because that's one that I'm sure a
12:26
Speaker 1: lot of you guys might be eyeing up. This one
12:28
Speaker 1: is exactly ten percent out there to first place in
12:31
Speaker 1: the flat payout structure for the top five, top ten.
12:33
Speaker 1: That is going to make you feel good about your
12:35
Speaker 1: payout if you go out there and you can put
12:37
Speaker 1: together a solid lineup. So in those kind of contests,
12:40
Speaker 1: we got to worry about the lineup construction now, which
12:43
Speaker 1: you want to cater out there to the event that
12:44
Speaker 1: you're entering and the contest that you're trying to take down,
12:47
Speaker 1: Because if you're entering in just a few hundred entry contests,
12:50
Speaker 1: you don't have to get that wiled out there at
12:52
Speaker 1: the ownership, whereas if you're trying to take down the
12:54
Speaker 1: five or the twenty five dollars GPP, you've really got
12:57
Speaker 1: to be focused on the ownership when we get to
12:59
Speaker 1: this segment. So what we're gonna do here is we're
13:01
Speaker 1: gonna build for that five dollars twenty five dollars GPP
13:03
Speaker 1: to talk get through the thought process when it comes
13:05
Speaker 1: to putting together a GPP build, which is a little
13:08
Speaker 1: bit different than what we have a rounds two and three.
13:10
Speaker 1: What makes this process a little bit different than some
13:12
Speaker 1: of the other rounds that we face is that out
13:14
Speaker 1: here for a round number four, we have those placement points,
13:17
Speaker 1: and I would say a good general role of thumb
13:18
Speaker 1: is that you want at least two three guys starting
13:21
Speaker 1: in the top ten, and then the rest of your
13:23
Speaker 1: lineup is where it's kind of dependent on the contest
13:26
Speaker 1: that you're entering, and you're in a GPP, you want
13:28
Speaker 1: at least one or two pivots out there in your
13:30
Speaker 1: lineups that are gonna give you that differentiation to the field.
13:33
Speaker 1: And then you have like two spots, maybe one spot
13:35
Speaker 1: in your lineup on top of that where you've got
13:37
Speaker 1: a little bit more leeway where it could be an
13:39
Speaker 1: in between or maybe even another piece of chalk up
13:42
Speaker 1: there towards the top if you are gonna take another
13:44
Speaker 1: piece of chalk, though in that scenario, you better have
13:47
Speaker 1: some loaned pivots with those one or two that you've
13:49
Speaker 1: already mixed in. So let's start off with some of
13:52
Speaker 1: that chalk towards the top, and we're gonna throw two
13:54
Speaker 1: guys starting in the top ten, and then we're gonna
13:56
Speaker 1: throw one guy on the fringe of the top ten.
13:58
Speaker 1: I'm out there as our third qu unquote placement point guy.
14:01
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna start with a JT. I'm gonna throw
14:04
Speaker 1: a let's see that. In terms of these guys that
14:07
Speaker 1: are a little bit cheaper, I'm trying to find somebody
14:08
Speaker 1: that's like eighty five, like maybe eight thousand dollars to
14:11
Speaker 1: go out there and play. That's a let's throwing to
14:13
Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell, I'm gonna say he doesn't choke on Sunday
14:16
Speaker 1: for one, which is playing with fire. But we'll play
14:19
Speaker 1: the short game regression game out there with the three
14:21
Speaker 1: shots games he lost on the greens today. The I
14:25
Speaker 1: kind of I am hesitant about this, though on the
14:27
Speaker 1: broadcast he was shaking his wrist a bit. I'm not
14:29
Speaker 1: sure if he has done an interview yet and talked
14:31
Speaker 1: about what was going on there. I'm gonna take him
14:34
Speaker 1: out of there for now just because of the risk issue.
14:36
Speaker 1: But if he does say in the media that it
14:39
Speaker 1: wasn't an issue. It was just like a nagging thing
14:41
Speaker 1: or something. I'll be firing them into some of my lineups,
14:44
Speaker 1: but for now, let's go with the Hideki Matsiama, who
14:46
Speaker 1: also gives us this placement points and maybe not as
14:49
Speaker 1: good of a stat profile as what you had with
14:51
Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell, but still somebody that I could see using
14:54
Speaker 1: in some of my exposure. So let's start with those
14:56
Speaker 1: two as our main two guys with the ownership there.
14:58
Speaker 1: And it's not like the ownership's of thing. It's that
15:00
Speaker 1: we need guys that are starting in position, and those
15:03
Speaker 1: guys are going to carry some of that ownership as well.
15:06
Speaker 1: And now let's see, he's one of those fringe guys.
15:07
Speaker 1: So either a T eleven here, maybe even a T
15:09
Speaker 1: sixteen player that we're still trying to get top five,
15:13
Speaker 1: top ten placement from, but they're not going to be
15:15
Speaker 1: quite as chocky as what you have here towards the
15:17
Speaker 1: top end. The reason why we're choosing to do this
15:20
Speaker 1: rather than going up here and taking another guy starting
15:22
Speaker 1: in the top five is that the ownership difference from
15:25
Speaker 1: these guys up top, like a lowry Astraka who I'm
15:28
Speaker 1: assuming in my projections, are gonna be the thirty five
15:31
Speaker 1: maybe forty percent owns out there in contests. Is that
15:34
Speaker 1: these guys a little bit further down you might find
15:36
Speaker 1: closer to ten to fifteen percent ownership, and that matters
15:39
Speaker 1: in the Big GBPS. If we were in a single entry,
15:42
Speaker 1: only a couple hundred entry contest, you wouldn't have to
15:44
Speaker 1: worry about it as much. You could go out there
15:47
Speaker 1: throw in a set Straca. You could throw in a
15:49
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry, who if I was gonna take one of
15:51
Speaker 1: the really choky guys on the slate, Shane Lowry might
15:53
Speaker 1: be my favorite. And maybe just to show you how
15:56
Speaker 1: you can make this work, let's throw Shane Lowry into
15:58
Speaker 1: this lineup. And but this is going to do in
16:00
Speaker 1: the Big GPPs. It's going to make our life a
16:02
Speaker 1: lot harder than what we want it because now we
16:05
Speaker 1: only have three spots to get all of the leverage
16:07
Speaker 1: in our lineups. Because these three guys up top are
16:09
Speaker 1: like thirty percent outs, we're gonna be getting zero leverage
16:12
Speaker 1: whatsoever on those three. There's going to be a metric
16:15
Speaker 1: shit ton. Sorry, it's just a ton of lineups out there.
16:17
Speaker 1: They're going to start with those exact three players together,
16:21
Speaker 1: so we're really gonna have to get different down low.
16:23
Speaker 1: So they're gonna throw into Robert McIntyre to get a
16:25
Speaker 1: little bit different with the ownership. Let's throw in a
16:30
Speaker 1: McIntyre shots. Game metrics aren't great, but he is an aggressive,
16:33
Speaker 1: high birdy percentage player when he's playing good golf. He's
16:36
Speaker 1: got a late morning tea time as well, so I
16:38
Speaker 1: think that that could be advantageous. That's throwing to Thomas
16:41
Speaker 1: Dietri here as well. I've got him most likely being
16:44
Speaker 1: under that seven percent ownership mark. And then for your
16:46
Speaker 1: last min and because we stretched it a little bit
16:49
Speaker 1: by taking three guys starting in the top five, you
16:52
Speaker 1: might even want to consider leaving salary on the table
16:54
Speaker 1: here because that core of free players is going to
16:56
Speaker 1: be so popular that even taking a McIntyre detch here
17:00
Speaker 1: might not be enough when it comes to that leverage.
17:03
Speaker 1: So that's why I choose to avoid that kind of
17:05
Speaker 1: a start and why I get a little bit more
17:08
Speaker 1: leverage out there into my build. So rather than going
17:10
Speaker 1: with that Shane Lowry build up there, if you were
17:13
Speaker 1: going to get a little bit different about it, you
17:14
Speaker 1: could go to a Keith Mitchell already mentioned there's maybe
17:18
Speaker 1: a little bit of a red flag with his injury
17:20
Speaker 1: around that sort of one. But like a Tommy Fleetwood
17:23
Speaker 1: further down the board over here at T eleven, that
17:26
Speaker 1: would be somebody that significantly lower owns. What you have
17:28
Speaker 1: with Shane Lowry is also only one hundred dollars cheaper,
17:31
Speaker 1: and you're getting some leverage at that portion there. And
17:34
Speaker 1: now with your last man in, you have one hundred
17:36
Speaker 1: dollars more to spend, which isn't the biggest deal, but
17:39
Speaker 1: now you also don't have to leave salaryund the table
17:41
Speaker 1: if you wanted to spend all of your money at
17:43
Speaker 1: seventy three hundred, you could. If you want to leave
17:45
Speaker 1: one hundred or two hundred dollars on the table and
17:47
Speaker 1: really ensure that you're going to duplicate yourself less likely
17:50
Speaker 1: make sure that you have a little bit more leverage
17:52
Speaker 1: out there from your lineup construction, you can do that
17:55
Speaker 1: out there as well. I would just say that the
17:57
Speaker 1: bigger the contest, the more leverage that you're going to
18:00
Speaker 1: need out there in your builds. You're still going to
18:02
Speaker 1: need placement points regardless of the contests that you're entering.
18:05
Speaker 1: It's just that you prioritize them a little bit more
18:08
Speaker 1: when you're in those smaller contests, and if you're in
18:11
Speaker 1: a cash contest, you should be taking guys starting in
18:13
Speaker 1: the top five, top ten for pretty much all six spots.
18:16
Speaker 1: It's a different game when you're just going out there
18:18
Speaker 1: and trying to beat fifty percent of the field. But
18:20
Speaker 1: in these gvps, I'll remind you, guys of what we're
18:22
Speaker 1: actually trying to do. You want to win first place.
18:24
Speaker 1: When you're entering the five or the twenty five dollars,
18:26
Speaker 1: there's such top heavy contests. They're twenty percent out there
18:29
Speaker 1: to first place that if you're not winning top five
18:31
Speaker 1: in those contests, you're not really going to reap the
18:33
Speaker 1: benefits of them long term. They have high rates, they've
18:36
Speaker 1: got the most entries that you've got to go out
18:38
Speaker 1: there and play against. You've also got one hundred and
18:40
Speaker 1: fifty maxers that are also taking up a lot of
18:43
Speaker 1: space in those contests. That makes it tough to go
18:45
Speaker 1: out there and find a lot of success. So if
18:48
Speaker 1: you're in those contests, play for first place right. If
18:50
Speaker 1: you're not first, your last. That kind of mantra truly
18:53
Speaker 1: should be what you're using out there when you're going
18:55
Speaker 1: through your lineup construction, and that means being bold. That
18:58
Speaker 1: means leaving salary on the table times to ensure that
19:01
Speaker 1: you're not going to be duplicated, because the worst thing
19:03
Speaker 1: you can do is not have leverage and pretty much
19:06
Speaker 1: have an impossible job of moving up the leaderboards. I
19:08
Speaker 1: just have to be perfect to go out there and
19:10
Speaker 1: take it down. You don't really want to have to
19:11
Speaker 1: be perfect to go and actually win first place or
19:15
Speaker 1: on the other aspect that would suck is if you
19:17
Speaker 1: duplicate yourself in first you're handicapping your payout so much
19:21
Speaker 1: because they're top evy contests and that first place equity
19:24
Speaker 1: is such a big deal when you find the nuts,
19:26
Speaker 1: which is tough to do regardless of whatever fantasy sport
19:29
Speaker 1: you're playing, you want to get the full benefit of
19:32
Speaker 1: doing so, so make sure that you're not duplicating yourself.
19:35
Speaker 1: Make sure that when you get plays correct, that you're
19:37
Speaker 1: moving up those leaderboards and not moving up with thirty
19:40
Speaker 1: percent of the field at the time. That would be
19:42
Speaker 1: my best recommendation for round number four. So best of
19:45
Speaker 1: luck out there with any exposure that you guys are
19:47
Speaker 1: getting to, but it's in the GPPs or some of
19:49
Speaker 1: the smaller field stuff. I hope to see your names
19:50
Speaker 1: out there towards the top. I'm going to be entering
19:52
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars single entry, thirty three dollars, twelve dollars
19:55
Speaker 1: and five dollars out there for tomorrow, and then fifty
19:57
Speaker 1: lineups out there into the big five dollars GP. So
20:00
Speaker 1: if you guys want to find me in contest, that's
20:02
Speaker 1: where you can find me for Sunday's exposure. Best luck
20:05
Speaker 1: out there with everything else that you're going with, unless
20:07
Speaker 1: you're playing against me in those contests. If so, I
20:10
Speaker 1: hope you guys finish in third, fourth place, second place
20:13
Speaker 1: out there as runner up. But I've got my eye
20:16
Speaker 1: out there on first place. Let's see if there's any
20:18
Speaker 1: last second questions. If not, we're gonna hop on out
20:20
Speaker 1: of here. It's going on, Brian, what's going on? Joseph?
20:23
Speaker 1: He said, killer Keith looks like he's gonna cry. Yeah, man,
20:26
Speaker 1: someone's gotta let me know about that wrist injury he's
20:28
Speaker 1: got going on. But that was crazy. He's a great
20:30
Speaker 1: showdown day got the w in fifth. That's great to hear, Brian,
20:33
Speaker 1: it was a good one over here as well. How
20:36
Speaker 1: does cold grade for tomorrow? So let's take a look
20:38
Speaker 1: at the Eric Colestat profile, which he had a lot
20:41
Speaker 1: of greens today. Through his first sixteen holes, he had
20:43
Speaker 1: hit fifteen of his sixteen, so not surprising that he
20:47
Speaker 1: gained over two or nearly two and a half strokes
20:49
Speaker 1: with the iron play. He sets up well because he
20:52
Speaker 1: gained with the iron play, gained off the tea, and
20:53
Speaker 1: then lost strokes over there with the putter. With the
20:56
Speaker 1: shots gained profile here, he's like an eight and a
20:58
Speaker 1: half out of ten. It's not perfect. Ideally he'd be
21:01
Speaker 1: a little bit better off the tee, but it's close
21:04
Speaker 1: to it. He's playing well, for sure, he said Hitten
21:07
Speaker 1: on props on the easiest spurt to hit props on
21:09
Speaker 1: has become difficult. I don't know about you, man, I
21:11
Speaker 1: had a good prop day today, so bad days happened
21:15
Speaker 1: for you. If that happened for you, hopefully tomorrow is better.
21:18
Speaker 1: But I have not found it that way. Do I
21:21
Speaker 1: think that Decie can go low again tomorrow? You think
21:23
Speaker 1: he can. I think he's got it in him. He's
21:26
Speaker 1: one of the best Sunday players that we have out
21:27
Speaker 1: here in the PGA tour. He wears yellow on Sundays.
21:31
Speaker 1: He's the clutchest player that we see out there with
21:34
Speaker 1: the lead. I wouldn't say that he's like chalked and
21:37
Speaker 1: I'm one hundred percent going to play, but he's one
21:39
Speaker 1: of those guys up top that very likely is going
21:42
Speaker 1: to make his bay into my player poll. I fade
21:44
Speaker 1: some of the newcomers. I fade some of the guys
21:46
Speaker 1: that I think are going to be nervous on Sundays,
21:48
Speaker 1: and Decky's immune to being nervous. The guy is like
21:52
Speaker 1: an absolute robot, and I mean that in the most
21:54
Speaker 1: polite and the most complimentary way possible. He's an absolute stunt.
22:02
Speaker 1: I have no idea what this guy's saying about his
22:04
Speaker 1: prop stuff and chat, but hey, God's feed him. Best
22:07
Speaker 1: of luck out there for Sunday. But hopefully it goes
22:09
Speaker 1: well for all of our exposure. I'm looking forward to it.
22:12
Speaker 1: I've got some main slate sweats. I've also got some
22:14
Speaker 1: placement that sweats out that I'm going out there and sweating.
22:17
Speaker 1: Hopefully treats you guys just as nicely out there