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SpaceX wins Massive contract · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
• 0:08
  Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Will Walden. Let's talk about Starship, let's
• 0:17
  talk about New Glen, and let's talk about ula as well for a
• 0:22
  national security space launch phase three launch services
• 0:27
  program. OK, that's a lot.
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  Wow. OK, So we know that SpaceX works
• 0:33
  with the Department of Defense, and we also know the Blue Origin
• 0:37
  hasn't launched New Glen yet. So those are the two things we
• 0:40
  have to think about today. SpaceX works with the Department
• 0:43
  of Defense, with Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and they also work
• 0:47
  with NASA and other firms around the world.
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  Blue Origin sends people to space to do what some would call
• 0:57
  a carnival ride. You go up, you come back down.
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  I think it's pretty cool though. Right now the the Blue Origin
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  launcher that sends people to space sent Captain Kirk to
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  space. I mean, come on, you can't just
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  be a hater on that. That's pretty cool.
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  But New Glen, their giant massive rocket, hasn't launched
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  yet. Why do they get these contracts?
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  How do they get this contract and what does this mean for
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  SpaceX in the overall scheme of things?
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  This contract is coming up $5.6 billion / 5 years from fiscal
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  year 2025 to 2029. They'll compete for at least 30
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  NSSL Lane One missions, which launch up to two years in
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  advance. So let's talk about Blue Origin
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  first. Blue Origin, who is founded by
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  Jeff Bezos, the Amazon guy, selected for the first time to
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  launch national security satellites under the NSSL
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  program. The only rocket that they have
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  that can do this is New Glen, which hasn't launched yet.
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  We they haven't even test fired the thing.
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  Now heavy lift reusable rocket is expected to attempt its first
• 2:06
  orbital flight later this year. Could this be possible?
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  Could we see a New Glen flight? I think it would be freaking
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  awesome if we saw a New Glen flight.
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  Let me know down to the comments if you support Blue Origin and
• 2:21
  their gigantic massive New Glen rocket.
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  It's not as big a Starship Mind you not I don't think it's as
• 2:26
  cool as Starship. But because it's all hidden and
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  secret, we don't really know what's going on with New Glen
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  until Blue Origin releases something.
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  It's not like SpaceX where you can drive down Hwy. 4, literally
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  parking the side of the road, like across the road from it,
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  take a couple pictures or like to stand there and hang out and
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  notice how huge this thing is. You can't do that with New Glen.
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  It's all in secret. But they received $5 million for
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  initial capabilities assessment and nearly $18 million for early
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  integration studies for New Glen, their initial capabilities
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  assessment. What can it do?
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  What can the Blue origin rocket do?
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  How much can it hold early integration studies for new
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  glance? So they get 50 or 5,5,000,000
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  and 18,000,000 for both of those things.
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  Just it's kind of like a study like hey, early integration
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  studies like how can this how does this thing work?
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  How will it work for the Department of Defense?
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  That's a bunch of money. And then phase three, this is
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  how the program structure and lay details.
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  I'm going to read this off to you because it's hard for me to
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  remember all this stuff. It's divided into two lanes.
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  Lane one is for less demanding low earth orbit launches and
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  lane 2 for heavy lift rockets capable of delivering payloads
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  to 9 reference orbits. So SpaceX has Falcon Heavy, it's
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  their heavy lift rocket. And then Jeff Bezos with New
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  Glen, that's their heavy lift rocket.
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  Lane one contracts are confirmed for Blue Origin, SpaceX and ula
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  with no other launch providers meeting the criteria.
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  Lane two providers will be selected later this year with up
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  to three contracts awarded for high performance launch systems.
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  So lane 2 heavy lift rockets, SpaceX is more than likely going
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  to get it with Falcon Heavy. Not quite Starship yet because I
• 4:16
  don't know if the, I don't know if the Department of Defense
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  really is into, I know they're into Starship, but I don't know
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  if they're ready for a Starship launch yet.
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  And Joey Roulette, we're going to talk about that in a minute
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  too. Joey Roulette had some
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  information about this on X as well.
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  I'll talk about that in a little bit.
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  Now the competition. Space Force aims to increase
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  competition and drive down launch costs, which is a great
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  thing for SpaceX while maintaining assured access to
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  space through redundant capabilities.
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  Do it through ula do it through Blue Origin, do it through
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  SpaceX. You have three different things.
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  You can launch with three different launch providers.
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  So it's going to be redundant. They can always get something to
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  orbit or beyond on wrap. Opportunities will be available
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  early year to allow new providers and systems to enter
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  the competition. So if anybody else out there has
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  a heavy lift rocket or rocket that can suffice what the
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  Department of Defense needs, sure, throw your hat in the
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  ring. Go for it early year every year
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  to allow new providers to and systems to enter the
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  competition. Potential new entrants for lane
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  one include Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, Firefly
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  Aerospace, and they're all, they all have like medium lift
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  rockets right now or they're developing them.
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  So the task orders, task order number one in phase three lane 1
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  includes 7 launches for the Space Development Agency and one
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  for National Reconnaissance Office, SpaceX and ula as
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  incumbent phase two providers will each receive 1.5 million.
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  It's not that much money for these mega mega corporations.
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  Only launch providers who have completed a successful orbital
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  launch prior to the proposal due date can bid for task orders.
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  So why are they using Starship right now?
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  They don't really need to. They have Falcon Heavy.
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  Starship isn't proven yet. Could they do?
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  Could they do it by then? Yeah, of course.
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  And also, if they do with Falcon Heavy this year, they could
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  always bid for the Starship on next year's program.
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  So Blue Origin looks like they have the confidence of the
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  Department of Defense, which is great because we need
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  competition. Not only do does Blue Origin
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  compete with Starship, but they're going to be competing
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  with these giant contracts, with these giant contracts.
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  SpaceX wants that money. So they're going to make
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  Starship better, faster, a bigger, cheaper also ula going
• 6:53
  to do the same thing actually ula is kind of old space, right?
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  So Ula does things the old way where they have a fixed way of
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  doing things. And the rocket doesn't change
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  until later. I mean, it will change later on.
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  They will have their blocks for this rocket, but it's not clear
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  exactly when that'll happen. Also, it's not really clear when
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  Starship will make it to orbit and complete a full orbit, but
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  I'm hoping it's by the end of this year.
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  That would be great. I'm assuming that it will be by
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  the end of this year. They'll they'll complete a full
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  orbit and they'll possibly get some star links into into orbit
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  while they're up there and hopefully they'll catch a
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  booster. And I don't think, I don't
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  think, you know, IFT 5 is going to be the booster catch.
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  I think IFT six or seven is going to be the booster catch.
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  I'm still optimistic. You know, I'm not a pessimist
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  about this thing. I'm just being realistic.
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  So I think somebody left a comment in on the last video
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  that I was pessimistic about this stuff.
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  I'm, I'm just being realistic, man.
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  You know, with the, with the booster catch for Starship, it's
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  just a little bit dangerous, you know, and I'm optimistic about
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  Starship. I want it to work very well.
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  I want it to work perfectly. But sometimes you got to be
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  realist, you know, IFT 5, if everything looks great, go for
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  it. Go for it.
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  But you know, it seems like the Department of Defense really
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  likes Blue Origin in this case. And Space Force plans to select
• 8:21
  lane two providers this fall. And it they said the government
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  intends to award up to three contracts for the NSSL phase
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  three lane two launch launch service procurement lane two
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  providers this fall. Could that be Starship possibly,
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  possibly. That's a heavy lift 1.
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  So it's either going to be Falcon Heavy or Starship.
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  If they can show that they can get to orbit, SpaceX has to make
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  some sort of some sort of door, some sort of hatch for their
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  satellites to come out because I don't think they're ready for
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  they're not ready for the clamshell quite yet.
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  You know, how want the, the clamshell with the, the nose of
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  the Starship opening up like this and then the, the
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  satellites come out. I don't think they're ready for
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  that yet. They could do a hatch of some
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  sort. They did the the Starlink hatch,
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  which seemed to be OK, seemed to work all right.
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  As far as we know is that they said it was a successful test.
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  So yes, it was successful. Was a little bit janky and
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  little, you know, and, you know, probably a couple seconds worth
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  of closing the doors little janky, but you know, it's their
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  first try and it's a Starship so it's huge.
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  It's massive. So The thing is, Starship may
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  get this contract. Falcon Heavy more than likely
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  like that's reliable. It's proven.
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  If SpaceX wants to go the proven route for this one, I would say
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  just get the contract, take that money.
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  Because if you can demonstrate for the Department of Defense
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  that you can do these things again and again with Falcon
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  Heavy, of course, use that as a heavy lift rocket.
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  It's not a super heavy lift rocket like Starship.
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  And I don't think they're going to need a Starship for what the
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  Department of Defense, US Space Force needs for this launch.
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  So why would you use the Starship if you don't need it?
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  Let me know in the comments down below what you think they're
• 10:14
  going to do. Joey Roulette, I'm going to read
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  you some of his tweets. So he just goes over Space Force
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  awarded Blue Origin 5 million to conduct a da, da, da.
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  And then so he says, Joey says SpaceX pitch Starship, Blue
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  Origin pitch New Glen Ula pitch Vulcan.
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  Then he goes on to say, I've asked SSC if Starship was
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  admitted to lane one. They said yes.
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  But I don't think that's correct.
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  SpaceX got 1.5 million for a well understood system, which
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  obviously wouldn't be Starship, it would be Falcon.
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  And it's highly doubtful Starship would be operational by
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  December. So fully operational by
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  December. He said it's highly doubtful.
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  I think there's a possibility it's possible SpaceX pitch
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  Starship for lane one independent of Falcon because
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  why not in SSC only chose its Falcon bid, but that's not
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  confirmed. I don't know waiting SSC to
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  clarify, but it certainly seems obvious Falcon is the one.
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  And then Nick Proxima said, hey, hi Joey.
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  Where exactly does it say what each vehicle was pitched?
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  Just trying to phrase this the best of my ability.
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  Thank you. And then Joey said Space Force
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  confirmed to him, as did the company's execs exec SpaceX.
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  And then he said, I don't think it's Starship.
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  So interesting that it's not Starship when New Glenn is
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  launching too. So Joey's very reputable about
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  this stuff. So it's it's kind of a little
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  bit weird, but also you got to understand it.
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  This is a business like they don't do this to show off
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  Starship. They do this to win contracts.
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  They do this for billions of dollars.
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  So if they have a rocket that can already do that, use the
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  rocket that's already there. Use the Falcon Heavy for now
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  until you get your Starship ready and then when starship's
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  ready, start launching. It's not like they lost a race
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  or anything like that. They're here to win money and
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  they're winning money with Falcon Heavy because they have a
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  reliable rocket that already works.
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  Unlike Blue Origin who has, you know, their has their tourism
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  rocket, which takes people up to space, they float back down.
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  It's all good. It's fun, it's pretty cool.
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  It's actually, it's actually really cool.
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  I like that. The rocket idea for Blue Origin.
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  I would love to do it someday. So there you have it.
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  That's what we know so far. Starship isn't going to be
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  launching these as far as we know.
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  If anything changes, I'll let you know.
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  So leave a comment down below and please hit the like button
• 12:46
  and the subscribe button because if you like SpaceX and NASA and
• 12:50
  Space Flight content, if you hit the like button and the
• 12:53
  subscribe button, and also if you leave a comment, YouTube
• 12:56
  will see that in the algorithm, it'll start pushing you more
• 12:59
  Starship and SpaceX and NASA and Space Flight content.
• 13:03
  Not just for me, but other creators out there that do
• 13:06
  similar things and we can discuss different topics on
• 13:10
  different channels. I do it all the time.
• 13:12
  I subscribe to other channels. I'm like, wow, I didn't even
• 13:14
  know they existed. And that's really cool.
• 13:17
  So thank you so much everybody for watching today.
• 13:19
  Take care of yourselves and each other, and I will see you in the
• 13:22
  next one. Hey, thank you so much for
• 13:29
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• 13:32
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• 13:33
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• 13:44
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• 13:50
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• 13:56
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• 13:58
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