Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/22/26: Trump Media Ban Backfires, DraftKings Caught Targeting Addicts, AI Anthropic Wet Lab
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
- 0:04Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
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- 0:19Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
- 0:24Speaker 1: Got some updates for you in Trump's war on the media.
- 0:28Speaker 1: So you may have already heard that he decided to
- 0:31Speaker 1: kick CNN, MSNOW, and Politico out of the White House.
- 0:36Speaker 3: Well, the other mainstream media outlets, to include Fox News.
- 0:40Speaker 1: Decided that in solidarity with those outlets, they would not
- 0:44Speaker 1: participate in in the White House press pool. So that
- 0:48Speaker 1: led to a very unusual situation yesterday where Trump was
- 0:53Speaker 1: doing an event, some sort of ribbon cutting ceremony or
- 0:55Speaker 1: some sort of thing like that. And you had the video,
- 0:59Speaker 1: but you had no audio whatsoever. Let's take a listen
- 1:03Speaker 1: to how they handled that.
- 1:05Speaker 4: OK, so there is no microphone because there's no microphone
- 1:08Speaker 4: because the pool cameras aren't there. So maybe, Tim, this
- 1:12Speaker 4: is one example of it backfiring just a little bit.
- 1:15Speaker 4: Pick up on some of the things Michael was saying.
- 1:19Speaker 4: And obviously the ramifications are right here. Can't hear what
- 1:23Speaker 4: the president's saying.
- 1:24Speaker 1: Particularly amusing, Sagar, because that was Newsmax, which is obviously
- 1:28Speaker 1: very much in the tank for Trump. So for them
- 1:30Speaker 1: to even say, like, maybe this backfired just a little
- 1:32Speaker 1: bit on him is a pretty stunning admission.
- 1:34Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like his worst nightmare is not having television.
- 1:38Speaker 2: In fact, the only time we saw Trump on camera
- 1:40Speaker 2: yesterday is when he did an event with Mayor Mamdani.
- 1:43Speaker 2: And that was only because New York City media was
- 1:46Speaker 2: there at the request of Mamdani and not the White
- 1:48Speaker 2: House press pool. I will not cape for the White
- 1:51Speaker 2: House Correspondents Association. I was a member. Frankly, they are
- 1:54Speaker 2: a cartel which is extremely old and like, And it's
- 1:59Speaker 2: not me saying this. Ryan would reiterate a lot of this, too,
- 2:02Speaker 2: from a lot of the same problems that he's had
- 2:03Speaker 2: with drop site credential, like the way that they run
- 2:06Speaker 2: these organizations like the White House or Congress. It's a
- 2:10Speaker 2: very legacy media forward. However, the White House is trying
- 2:14Speaker 2: to hijack some of that to basically control what type
- 2:18Speaker 2: of coverage. that they get. So there are no heroes
- 2:21Speaker 2: in particular in this story. I just want to make
- 2:22Speaker 2: that clear. However, what they've done is they have created
- 2:26Speaker 2: a situation where once again, they preemptively ban the White
- 2:29Speaker 2: House press pool. Well, everyone could have predicted that everyone
- 2:32Speaker 2: would stand tall with the organizations which have been booted out. Why?
- 2:36Speaker 2: Because even when I was there, attack on one is
- 2:40Speaker 2: attack on all. It's literally a cartel. We're like, we
- 2:42Speaker 2: can't let the cartel be broken. And so if they
- 2:45Speaker 2: get to decide who is in charge of the camera
- 2:47Speaker 2: footage or not, then all of us need to stand
- 2:51Speaker 2: for that person. They did it when Obama attacked Fox News.
- 2:54Speaker 2: He tried to kick them out back in 2009, I
- 2:57Speaker 2: want to say. The entire White House press corps kind
- 3:00Speaker 2: of stood with Fox News then at the time specifically
- 3:02Speaker 2: so that Fox would stand with them as they are now.
- 3:05Speaker 2: And what it all means is, you know, even just
- 3:08Speaker 2: say the pool, what does it mean? All the journalists
- 3:11Speaker 2: who cover the White House, there's hundreds of them, cannot
- 3:13Speaker 2: all fit into the same room with the president. And
- 3:15Speaker 2: so every day there is an assigned member of that
- 3:18Speaker 2: press corps to be the representative of the rest of
- 3:21Speaker 2: the press corps. I used to do this job where
- 3:24Speaker 2: you kinda sit there and you wait for Trump and
- 3:26Speaker 2: see what he's gonna say, and then you send the
- 3:27Speaker 2: message to the rest of the press corps You're not
- 3:30Speaker 2: allowed to exclusively report it for yourself. That's the same
- 3:33Speaker 2: thing with the TV camera. There's a guy there with
- 3:35Speaker 2: a TV camera. Even though he works for CNN, let's
- 3:38Speaker 2: say on that day, that footage is being broadcast to
- 3:41Speaker 2: all of the networks and the people who subscribe to
- 3:44Speaker 2: the pool. They also pay for that privilege, and they
- 3:46Speaker 2: pay a lot of money to be able to do so.
- 3:48Speaker 2: So that's what it all means, and that's why they're
- 3:51Speaker 2: all boycotting, and that's why some of the boycotts are
- 3:53Speaker 2: happening right now. But it has backfired on Trump, actually,
- 3:56Speaker 2: because they're all now saying, not only will I not
- 3:59Speaker 2: publish any of the video, even the still photographers, including
- 4:02Speaker 2: Trump's favorites, a guy named Doug Mills. He works for
- 4:04Speaker 2: The New York Times. Best photographer I've ever seen in
- 4:07Speaker 2: my life. This guy, even he, they're now saying, like, oh,
- 4:10Speaker 2: we won't be publishing still images. any of their images
- 4:14Speaker 2: that they're trying to distribute to try and circumvent the
- 4:17Speaker 2: hold that the White House press corps has.
- 4:19Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 4:20Speaker 1: And I mean, basically the idea is that you should have,
- 4:23Speaker 1: anytime the president is in public, you should have a
- 4:25Speaker 1: camera and audio on him because he's, just inherently newsworthy.
- 4:29Speaker 2: Well, anything can happen. Like 9-11. I mean, that's literally
- 4:32Speaker 2: the story. And part of the reason why the president
- 4:35Speaker 2: should always have him with them is you don't know
- 4:36Speaker 2: what the hell is going to happen. I mean, one
- 4:38Speaker 2: day you're in a Florida classroom and the next day
- 4:40Speaker 2: you're on Air Force One, you know, taking on going
- 4:42Speaker 2: to Barksdale Air Force Base and trying to broadcast the
- 4:45Speaker 2: most important statements that the president can make because war
- 4:47Speaker 2: can break out literally at any time. They tell us
- 4:50Speaker 2: that whenever you're You're there. You never know what's going
- 4:52Speaker 2: to happen. You may be sitting in a damn golf
- 4:53Speaker 2: course for the 90th time.
- 4:55Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 4:56Speaker 2: But you don't know. You don't know what will happen.
- 4:58Speaker 3: Well, I mean, it's obviously of a piece with his
- 5:01Speaker 3: whole war on the press. The man literally thinks it
- 5:03Speaker 3: should be illegal for people to criticize him. And he
- 5:06Speaker 3: said this. This is not me making this up.
- 5:07Speaker 1: That is his view, is that the press should never
- 5:10Speaker 1: be critical of him, that he should get only fawning coverage,
- 5:14Speaker 1: that if you don't... I mean, he goes after Fox
- 5:16Speaker 1: News all the time for not being fawning enough in
- 5:19Speaker 1: their worshipful praise of him or if they put out
- 5:21Speaker 1: a poll that looks bad for him or his party
- 5:24Speaker 1: because their polling outfit is actually pretty legit. He gets
- 5:27Speaker 1: upset about that and about their fake polls. So he
- 5:30Speaker 1: has this. incredibly authoritarian view of what the news media
- 5:35Speaker 1: should be. And we've obviously seen the lawsuits and the
- 5:38Speaker 1: threats of lawsuits and the use of the FCC to
- 5:42Speaker 1: badger late night comedians who tell a joke that he
- 5:44Speaker 1: doesn't like.
- 5:45Speaker 3: This is a part and parcel.
- 5:47Speaker 1: And then that's without even getting into the fact that
- 5:50Speaker 1: the Ellisons are taking over vast swaths of our media
- 5:53Speaker 1: empires so that you have Trump-aligned oligarchs in control of
- 5:58Speaker 1: important media outlets, including, you know, I think CNN will
- 6:01Speaker 1: probably be allowed back in once the Ellison's are fully
- 6:04Speaker 1: in control because they promised major changes to the network.
- 6:07Speaker 1: So this is obviously how he operates. He does not
- 6:11Speaker 1: believe in having a press that is adversarial whatsoever. We
- 6:15Speaker 1: can put D2 up on the screen. This is him
- 6:18Speaker 1: defending his decision to kick them out. He says the
- 6:21Speaker 1: White House is not instituting an assault on the free press,
- 6:24Speaker 1: something which I cherish.
- 6:25Speaker 3: LOL.
- 6:26Speaker 1: It is instituting an assault on fake news, something that
- 6:29Speaker 1: has grown like cancer in our beloved United States of America.
- 6:31Speaker 1: It is corrupt, purposeful, pervasive, fully coordinated, totally out of control.
- 6:35Speaker 1: The threat to our national security must be stopped now.
- 6:38Speaker 1: That's the other thing they hate, is all of the
- 6:40Speaker 1: accurate reporting about what is actually going on in Iran,
- 6:44Speaker 1: to include the images that have now come out of
- 6:47Speaker 1: all of the destruction of our bases and our military
- 6:51Speaker 1: equipment on the ground in the Middle East. He was
- 6:54Speaker 1: at a press conference with Zoran Mamdani yesterday, which is
- 6:57Speaker 1: a whole other thing that was going on there. He
- 6:59Speaker 1: met with Zoran Mamdani. at Gracie Mansion in New York City.
- 7:04Speaker 1: The bromance does continue. In any case, he got asked
- 7:07Speaker 1: about this media ban. Let's go ahead and take a
- 7:10Speaker 1: listen to that.
- 7:11Speaker 5: You would think that an outlet would write at least
- 7:14Speaker 5: reasonably well, but never. If you look at CNN, it's
- 7:17Speaker 5: fake news. If you look at MSNBC, what it used
- 7:23Speaker 5: to be, or MSDNC, as some people call it, that's
- 7:27Speaker 5: Democrat National Committee. But it's just biased news. And I
- 7:30Speaker 5: think that these outlets have an obligation to be fair.
- 7:34Speaker 5: And if they're fake news, I really think I have
- 7:36Speaker 5: an obligation not to allow them into another very special house.
- 7:39Speaker 5: This is a special house, Gracie Mansion. Well, the White
- 7:42Speaker 5: House is the most special of all houses, I have
- 7:44Speaker 5: to say. And I don't even think the mayor would
- 7:46Speaker 5: argue with that. And I think I have an obligation
- 7:49Speaker 5: not to let fake news. They're very bad for the country,
- 7:53Speaker 5: very bad for national security.
- 7:54Speaker 6: So I have that obligation.
- 7:56Speaker 3: Not a really comfortable moment for Zoran there. He's sort
- 7:59Speaker 3: of staring off into the distance like, okay, I just
- 8:03Speaker 3: have to stand here and take it.
- 8:05Speaker 2: Something I have not considered is how much of this
- 8:07Speaker 2: is about munitions. Because what I see now, literally from
- 8:10Speaker 2: this morning, Trump, the cowards and traitors would love to
- 8:12Speaker 2: say the United States is low on munitions. It's not true.
- 8:14Speaker 2: We have more munitions than we could ever possibly think
- 8:16Speaker 2: of using and building them now at levels we've never
- 8:18Speaker 2: seen before. Previously, the three outlets that have been banned
- 8:21Speaker 2: had all published stories specifically about munitions. So it is
- 8:25Speaker 2: actually very possible that this is not even necessarily about him,
- 8:28Speaker 2: but of his anger of publishing some of these classified
- 8:32Speaker 2: information or classified information. You don't even need classified information
- 8:36Speaker 2: to figure it out, but some of the classified stories.
- 8:39Speaker 2: So it actually makes it worse, in my opinion, because
- 8:41Speaker 2: you're not being banned over some stupid stormy, you know,
- 8:44Speaker 2: some FCs, which I'm not saying that would be bad.
- 8:46Speaker 2: Like that would be bad, too. But to ban over
- 8:49Speaker 2: accurate wartime reporting in the middle of said war, that
- 8:53Speaker 2: makes it, I think, actually a lot worse.
- 8:55Speaker 3: I think that's definitely what's going on here.
- 8:57Speaker 2: Like that is about panic about the accuracy of what's
- 9:00Speaker 2: being reported from the battle.
- 9:01Speaker 1: I think that is absolutely part of what is going
- 9:03Speaker 1: on here, for sure. And in addition to his just general,
- 9:07Speaker 1: you know, hatred of any sort of adversarial press. But
- 9:10Speaker 1: I think in this specific moment, that's why this is
- 9:12Speaker 1: blowing up. Republicans are being pressed on this.
- 9:15Speaker 3: They had Steve Scalise. being interviewed on the Sunday shows.
- 9:18Speaker 3: This is D6, guys. Let's take a listen to how
- 9:20Speaker 3: this went for him.
- 9:21Speaker 7: First of all, I don't think we've had a president
- 9:23Speaker 7: that's been more open to the press. Look, I've been at,
- 9:27Speaker 7: you go to a bill signing with President Trump, and
- 9:30Speaker 7: the first thing he does before he even signs the
- 9:32Speaker 7: bill is he brings in the press. And everybody gets
- 9:34Speaker 7: to not only take pictures, but ask questions. Go look
- 9:38Speaker 7: at Joe Biden. Joe Biden removed the press credentials from
- 9:41Speaker 7: over 400 different agencies. You know, what President Trump's done
- 9:45Speaker 7: has brought a lot of those back in, but he
- 9:48Speaker 7: wants a free and fair press. He's been to the
- 9:51Speaker 7: White House Correspondents' Dinner. Just the other day, he was
- 9:54Speaker 7: answering questions about this to the press, and they're asking
- 9:58Speaker 7: him about his attitude towards the press while he's holding
- 10:01Speaker 7: a press conference.
- 10:01Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 10:02Speaker 7: You never saw that under President Biden. So very open president.
- 10:06Speaker 8: So first of all, that's actually not true about about Biden.
- 10:08Speaker 8: They 400 individual reporters who had credentials did not reapply.
- 10:14Speaker 8: There was only one that was actually denied a credential.
- 10:17Speaker 8: And all of those who didn't reapply were allowed to
- 10:20Speaker 8: come in. They were not banned from the White House.
- 10:22Speaker 6: That did not happen.
- 10:23Speaker 1: The other thing that Republicans bring up is what you
- 10:25Speaker 1: referenced before, which was under Obama, there was an attempt
- 10:29Speaker 1: to ban Fox News from one particular interview. So not
- 10:33Speaker 1: even like blanket ban, not, you know, it was Fox News,
- 10:36Speaker 1: this one particular interview, and there was a whole Republican.
- 10:40Speaker 3: Freakout over it.
- 10:41Speaker 2: To be fair, it was part of a bigger strategy.
- 10:43Speaker 2: Ben Rhodes and those people had a long stand. They hated,
- 10:46Speaker 2: I mean, I get it. They hated Fox.
- 10:47Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 10:48Speaker 2: Um, they were like, they're, you know, at this.
- 10:50Speaker 3: I mean, it is genuinely a partisan. This was like, Oh, gee,
- 10:53Speaker 3: founded as part of a Republican political problem.
- 10:55Speaker 2: Same way, you know, they hate MSNBC. Like I get it.
- 10:57Speaker 2: They were especially furious about birtherism, uh, which was happening, uh,
- 11:01Speaker 2: at the time. And they were like, screw it, let's
- 11:03Speaker 2: ban them. And so that was like the intro. to it.
- 11:05Speaker 2: What they didn't anticipate was Jake Tapper and all those
- 11:08Speaker 2: people at the time being like, hey, you can't be
- 11:10Speaker 2: doing this. You can't be telling us what we can
- 11:13Speaker 2: and can't. And ultimately, they did fold. Trump also tried
- 11:16Speaker 2: to ban Caitlin Collins from the White House in 2019,
- 11:20Speaker 2: around when I was there. They sued and they won.
- 11:24Speaker 2: There is longstanding court precedence. They basically, at every turn,
- 11:28Speaker 2: they have been able to overturn bans from the actual
- 11:32Speaker 2: White House grounds on First Amendment principles. That said, the
- 11:35Speaker 2: pool is actually a little bit of a different story.
- 11:37Speaker 2: And that one, I'm not sure that will be resolved
- 11:40Speaker 2: because there is no constitutional right to the White House
- 11:43Speaker 2: press pool or to the cartel. I would not expect
- 11:46Speaker 2: that one to be resolved. We do also have D7.
- 11:49Speaker 2: Let's put it up here on the screen. Trump is
- 11:51Speaker 2: launching something called Trump TV, which is the White House essentials.
- 11:56Speaker 2: It The White House has always had a YouTube account
- 12:02Speaker 2: and has broadcast some of their events. I think what
- 12:06Speaker 2: they're trying to get around is what happened yesterday, which again,
- 12:09Speaker 2: I presume Trump is furious about, is normally the White
- 12:12Speaker 2: House does not have coverage or at least the same
- 12:17Speaker 2: type of coverage that these networks have for obviously a
- 12:20Speaker 2: good reason. They don't have boom mics and making sure
- 12:24Speaker 2: that the president is mic'd up while he's doing event.
- 12:27Speaker 2: That's usually the job. of the press corps itself. But
- 12:31Speaker 2: by and large, I mean, this is, the White House
- 12:33Speaker 2: had already set up press, and I apologize for too
- 12:35Speaker 2: much inside baseball, but already what they have done has
- 12:38Speaker 2: made it so that when Biden, you know, whoever Democrat wins,
- 12:42Speaker 2: they're not going back to the way that things used
- 12:45Speaker 2: to be. The way it is right now is far
- 12:47Speaker 2: preferable for the people who are in power. They've cut
- 12:50Speaker 2: off extraordinary amounts of normal press acts, stupid stuff, which
- 12:54Speaker 2: sounds dumb, but is actually important. you usually can't go
- 12:58Speaker 2: to the press secretary's office anymore. It used to be,
- 13:00Speaker 2: you can just walk in there. Now, can't do that anymore.
- 13:03Speaker 1: Well, Ryan loves to point out, you know, all the
- 13:04Speaker 1: State Department briefings that we got all those tortured, you know,
- 13:07Speaker 1: from the fat sogger that.
- 13:09Speaker 2: Would go up there. He doesn't look like me.
- 13:12Speaker 3: Many people are saying, anyway.
- 13:14Speaker 2: We don't even share the same genetics.
- 13:16Speaker 3: All those people that would go up there and be,
- 13:19Speaker 3: you know, give these torturous answers about like, oh, no,
- 13:22Speaker 3: we don't think it's a war crime. We'll look into it.
- 13:24Speaker 3: We'll get back to you.
- 13:25Speaker 1: We don't get that anymore because they don't do those briefings.
- 13:29Speaker 1: And then you also have and those are a great
- 13:31Speaker 1: way for like, you know, a reporter like Ryan, who
- 13:34Speaker 1: may not get credentials for the White House, but can
- 13:36Speaker 1: show up to those briefings. And they asked Dropside, asked
- 13:39Speaker 1: all kinds of really consequential questions there and at least were,
- 13:42Speaker 1: you know, exposed some things and made those people uncomfortable
- 13:46Speaker 1: and have to answer questions.
- 13:47Speaker 3: That just doesn't happen anymore.
- 13:48Speaker 1: And then you have the whole Pentagon thing where basically
- 13:50Speaker 1: anyone who was legit, who had any sort of scruples
- 13:54Speaker 1: in their reporting whatsoever, could not agree to the terms
- 13:56Speaker 1: of effectively like you won't report anything. We don't want
- 13:59Speaker 1: you to report. What journalists would agree to that? Well,
- 14:02Speaker 1: a bunch of like shoddy influencers who are completely.
- 14:05Speaker 2: And they still haven't. They haven't even held briefings for them.
- 14:07Speaker 2: But that's my point is we're not going back. Is
- 14:09Speaker 2: that these Biden press conferences.
- 14:11Speaker 3: Say that I don't really think so.
- 14:13Speaker 1: You don't you sometimes you don't understand the way that
- 14:16Speaker 1: Democrats operate. Truly, like there is still this very like
- 14:20Speaker 1: liberal normie veneration for like the free press. Then this
- 14:25Speaker 1: is the way things should be done. And we don't
- 14:26Speaker 1: want to be like them. So it depends if we
- 14:29Speaker 1: get a John Ossoff. Is he going to kick out
- 14:31Speaker 1: all the right wing like reporters out of the room?
- 14:34Speaker 3: Absolutely not.
- 14:34Speaker 2: Well, a lot of them, though, are not reporters, right?
- 14:37Speaker 2: Like a lot of them are literally work for like
- 14:38Speaker 2: Lindell TV.
- 14:39Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, those people are going to go.
- 14:40Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I mean. I think they probably will
- 14:42Speaker 2: get out.
- 14:43Speaker 3: Yeah, but in terms of like, you know, is he
- 14:45Speaker 3: going to ban Fox News?
- 14:46Speaker 2: Oh, I see.
- 14:47Speaker 3: No, he's not going to do that.
- 14:48Speaker 1: And so, yeah, I just it's Trump is fairly unique
- 14:54Speaker 1: in what he's willing to do and how far he's
- 14:56Speaker 1: willing to go.
- 14:57Speaker 3: Now, I think.
- 14:59Speaker 1: These sorts of breaking of these norms and institutions, you
- 15:02Speaker 1: can never put it all the way back together. But
- 15:05Speaker 1: I don't know that I would be so convinced that
- 15:07Speaker 1: a Democrat will, like, go so hard against media they
- 15:10Speaker 1: see as being biased or unfair, as Trump does.
- 15:12Speaker 2: That's my last thing, since we have a little bit
- 15:14Speaker 2: of time, is, you know, this doesn't make you... It's
- 15:17Speaker 2: not good for you. Like, many... What I have watched
- 15:19Speaker 2: with the Pentagon, for example, you know, you're bringing in
- 15:22Speaker 2: Logan Paul, you're beclowning yourself. Like, a good friend who
- 15:27Speaker 2: works in the Pentagon... was telling me, you know, Hex
- 15:30Speaker 2: had screwed up because these people are already kind of,
- 15:33Speaker 2: they're already baked in pro-military neocons. The best thing that
- 15:38Speaker 2: the press did for the military over the last 20
- 15:40Speaker 2: years is they laundered a lot of their bullshit because to,
- 15:43Speaker 2: you know, maintain the relationships. So by declaring war on them,
- 15:47Speaker 2: a lot of them actually started reporting the truth. Whereas
- 15:50Speaker 2: previously when you have to maintain relationships and access in
- 15:53Speaker 2: the building, you would be much more on their side,
- 15:56Speaker 2: you know, to report. And there's also, and there is,
- 15:59Speaker 2: I truly believe this. In fact, I know I do.
- 16:02Speaker 2: Iron sharpens iron. You are way better off when you're sharp.
- 16:06Speaker 2: I mean, one of the things is, and you see this,
- 16:08Speaker 2: when candidates are in fighting form on the campaign, Abdul
- 16:11Speaker 2: is a good example. I mean, the guy just, you know,
- 16:12Speaker 2: is hit after hit after hit. And in fact, you know,
- 16:15Speaker 2: ever since that whole Jesse Waters thing, I think he's
- 16:17Speaker 2: become a little bit better, but that was an important
- 16:19Speaker 2: moment for him. I'm like, oh man, you know, this
- 16:21Speaker 2: didn't work out entirely. On my behalf, I created a
- 16:24Speaker 2: national news cycle that I probably shouldn't have. I need
- 16:26Speaker 2: to sharpen up. And I have seen how Trump and
- 16:30Speaker 2: a lot of the other Republicans, when you get ensconced
- 16:33Speaker 2: in your, you know, GOP podcast bubble, then all of
- 16:36Speaker 2: a sudden you come back up for air and you
- 16:39Speaker 2: get hit in a debate or something and you just
- 16:42Speaker 2: you don't have it anymore. And I've seen that. time
- 16:45Speaker 2: and time again with a lot of these politicians. Yeah,
- 16:47Speaker 2: no doubt about it.
- 16:48Speaker 3: You see that with candidates, the ones who are willing
- 16:50Speaker 3: to go on. I mean, Ro Khan is another good example.
- 16:52Speaker 2: Yeah, he'll go anywhere.
- 16:53Speaker 1: He'll go on everywhere and he can handle it because
- 16:55Speaker 1: there's no question that he hasn't already dealt with and anticipated.
- 16:58Speaker 2: Whereas AOC, different story. All right, DraftKings, let's get to it.
- 17:05Speaker 2: The conversation around sports betting continues to dominate at least
- 17:08Speaker 2: a lot of elite media as we see this epidemic
- 17:10Speaker 2: sweep across the nation. NFL season, is here. Week two
- 17:14Speaker 2: came and went. Billions of dollars were wagered just in
- 17:18Speaker 2: a single week. And now interviews with many of these
- 17:21Speaker 2: burgeoning addicts are beginning to come to light. Here's one
- 17:24Speaker 2: that CBS just did. Let's take a listen.
- 17:27Speaker 9: How often do you bet?
- 17:28Speaker 8: Oh, every day.
- 17:29Speaker 2: People wake up and check the newspaper. I wake up
- 17:31Speaker 2: and check who's playing.
- 17:32Speaker 9: But football season is high season for him.
- 17:35Speaker 2: Let's go.
- 17:36Speaker 10: On this college football Saturday, he's got $ 250 down on
- 17:41Speaker 10: four games. If he wins all four, this bet will
- 17:45Speaker 10: pay $ 3, 000. But Esteban wins only one. So after a
- 17:53Speaker 10: friend comes over, he tries.
- 17:55Speaker 2: It all again.
- 17:56Speaker 9: Northern Illinois is plus 31 and a half.
- 17:58Speaker 2: You're telling me plus 31 and a half don't cover
- 17:59Speaker 2: against a defensive team?
- 18:01Speaker 9: Four more games, he loses another 250. Just like that,
- 18:06Speaker 9: he's down 500 bucks. How much money do you bet
- 18:09Speaker 9: a year?
- 18:10Speaker 2: Probably 80 to.
- 18:12Speaker 6: 100,000, 120.
- 18:12Speaker 9: Which has to be approaching the amount of money you
- 18:14Speaker 9: make a year.
- 18:15Speaker 6: 90, 700.
- 18:17Speaker 9: Oh, you got to make a better pass than that.
- 18:19Speaker 9: That's right. Great route. This single 29-year-old pest control salesman
- 18:24Speaker 9: bets as much as he makes, if not more. I'm
- 18:28Speaker 9: getting paid this week.
- 18:29Speaker 2: I'm about to put it all down.
- 18:30Speaker 9: Your paycheck this week?
- 18:31Speaker 2: Yeah, sometimes I'm like, hey, well, I like this game
- 18:32Speaker 2: a lot. Yeah, let's just all put it on there.
- 18:33Speaker 2: And then look, I got paid double this week.
- 18:35Speaker 6: Or?
- 18:35Speaker 2: I mean, ramen noodle for the rest of the week.
- 18:38Speaker 2: So there you have it. You have here a guy
- 18:41Speaker 2: who makes decent money. 29 years old. I can't tell
- 18:44Speaker 2: if he's married or not.
- 18:46Speaker 6: No offense.
- 18:46Speaker 2: Doesn't look it. a pest control salesman who is betting
- 18:50Speaker 2: his entire yearly salary a year on a week by
- 18:53Speaker 2: week basis. Some weeks I eat double, some weeks I
- 18:56Speaker 2: eat ramen. And you could see kind of that miserable
- 18:59Speaker 2: existence of sitting and living and dying game by game.
- 19:02Speaker 2: I mean, that, that strat, that two 50, and then
- 19:05Speaker 2: you lose and then you double and you chase your
- 19:07Speaker 2: losses like going on tilt. That is the story. And okay.
- 19:11Speaker 2: He has individual responsibility. He's an idiot.
- 19:14Speaker 1: Fine.
- 19:14Speaker 2: But what about the technology and the legislators and the
- 19:18Speaker 2: whole system that enables and lives off of him? What
- 19:22Speaker 2: about that? Why would you allow that?
- 19:25Speaker 3: Gambling addiction is a real thing.
- 19:27Speaker 2: Oh, it is the most potent.
- 19:28Speaker 1: I mean, it is real. It is devastating. This guy
- 19:31Speaker 1: clearly suffers from it. Otherwise, you wouldn't be risking more
- 19:35Speaker 1: than your entire salary. He said he makes $ 97, 000 and
- 19:37Speaker 1: he's betting $ 100, 000 to $ 120, 000 a year. you don't have
- 19:43Speaker 1: to be a mathematician to figure out, you don't need
- 19:46Speaker 1: to type this into OpenAI or a calculator app to
- 19:49Speaker 1: figure out out. That's not going to work out for
- 19:51Speaker 1: you over the long term. And this man, I'm sure,
- 19:54Speaker 1: is not intellectually so stupid that he can't also do
- 19:58Speaker 1: that math, but he's hooked. And what's he hooked on?
- 20:00Speaker 1: It's the promise of this time. It's going to be
- 20:03Speaker 1: the time. This one is going to hit This one,
- 20:05Speaker 1: it's that constant dopamine hit, the anticipation. What if it's
- 20:10Speaker 1: this one? What if I get this big payday? What
- 20:12Speaker 1: if that changes my life? And increasingly, this is what
- 20:16Speaker 1: our entire economy is built on. It's no longer the
- 20:18Speaker 1: American dream. This is the American dream, is that your
- 20:21Speaker 1: parlay is going to hit. For young men, that's like.
- 20:24Speaker 3: The new America. And it's not going to. It's rigged
- 20:26Speaker 3: just like.
- 20:26Speaker 2: The original American dream. It literally will not.
- 20:28Speaker 1: This one is even more blatantly rigged against you. Over
- 20:31Speaker 1: the long term, maybe you'll have a good, you will
- 20:34Speaker 1: have a good week here or there where you're feeling great.
- 20:36Speaker 3: Over the long term, they will take everything. Everything, if
- 20:39Speaker 3: you continue in this direction.
- 20:40Speaker 2: Right, and so this is now paired with, look, none
- 20:43Speaker 2: of this is actually all that revelatory. I'm always amazed
- 20:46Speaker 2: by what things break through and don't, but for some reason...
- 20:49Speaker 2: people woke up to things that we've been talking about
- 20:52Speaker 2: here for many years. Let's put the New York Times
- 20:54Speaker 2: story up on the screen, E1, where the Times reports
- 20:57Speaker 2: about how DraftKings uses AI to target the gamblers' likeliest
- 21:01Speaker 2: to lose. Again, if you are surprised by this, this
- 21:04Speaker 2: is called basic practices. This is how they make money.
- 21:07Speaker 2: This is why online sports gambling is so devastating, because
- 21:12Speaker 2: you have the phone, which you're already addicted to, combined
- 21:15Speaker 2: with Money, which you can't afford to lose, combined with
- 21:19Speaker 2: the most sophisticated machine learning algorithms that even predate these
- 21:23Speaker 2: AI models, which is exactly what they write. In 2023,
- 21:26Speaker 2: DraftKings took customer betting records and built a machine learning
- 21:31Speaker 2: model which seeks the patterns in the data to answer
- 21:33Speaker 2: the question, who is more likely to respond to promotions
- 21:36Speaker 2: by gambling and losing even more money? They decided to
- 21:40Speaker 2: prioritize free bets, bonuses for likely losers, and soon a
- 21:44Speaker 2: question began to gnaw at them, aren't many of these
- 21:46Speaker 2: people prone to addiction? The guy decides to be a
- 21:50Speaker 2: concerned whistleblower. And no offense to the person who ran
- 21:54Speaker 2: these tests and is now speaking out. Dude, that's your
- 21:57Speaker 2: whole business model. And I've been trying to emphasize this
- 22:00Speaker 2: too from the very beginning. Literally 50% of the profit
- 22:04Speaker 2: of these companies, 50% comes from the bottom 6%. The addicts, 50%
- 22:12Speaker 2: from the small group. This is like this with all sin,
- 22:14Speaker 2: is that the vast majority of cigarettes are smoked by
- 22:17Speaker 2: daily smokers. The vast majority of alcohol is consumed by alcoholics.
- 22:21Speaker 2: The vast majority of money lost is lost by the whales,
- 22:26Speaker 2: by the people who are literal addicts and who generally
- 22:28Speaker 2: have a large sum that they haven't yet exhausted. What
- 22:32Speaker 2: we also know is that all of their advertisements, which
- 22:35Speaker 2: this guy we showed you almost certainly fell for, is
- 22:39Speaker 2: you can win. It's not true. If you are allowed
- 22:41Speaker 2: to bet $ 250 per game, you are a loser. I
- 22:46Speaker 2: can tell you that for certain. Why? Because their machine
- 22:49Speaker 2: learning algorithm is so sophisticated that if I logged into
- 22:53Speaker 2: DraftKings right now, And I bet in a sharp way.
- 22:56Speaker 2: Sharp means that somebody who has a general edge. If
- 22:59Speaker 2: I bet sharp, even if I lose, it will say,
- 23:02Speaker 2: oh God, sharp customer. We don't want that. And so
- 23:05Speaker 2: they will come into my app and say, you're allowed
- 23:07Speaker 2: to pay $ 2. 90 a game. So they can't ban me,
- 23:11Speaker 2: but they can say, we can limit your action. If
- 23:14Speaker 2: you are ever allowed to bet in a sustained manner
- 23:17Speaker 2: for more than $ 100 a game, you are a loser.
- 23:20Speaker 2: The machine is telling you, loser, loser. And that is
- 23:24Speaker 2: what a lot of these guys don't seem to understand.
- 23:27Speaker 2: And they plow them because, I mean, again, people are idiots,
- 23:31Speaker 2: but it's like, you know, I get it where it
- 23:34Speaker 2: comes from. Free bet. I'm like, oh, bet five, win 200. Oh,
- 23:38Speaker 2: that sounds great.
- 23:39Speaker 6: 200.
- 23:39Speaker 2: I could pay my electric bill. And so what do
- 23:42Speaker 2: you do? You log in. It turns out it's $ 200
- 23:44Speaker 2: in free bet credits, or you have to cycle through
- 23:46Speaker 2: a real $ 200. And then you lose it all in
- 23:49Speaker 2: the first place. Profit boosts, all this other you know,
- 23:52Speaker 2: promotional nonsense. It's just addiction. It is designed to get
- 23:57Speaker 2: you there. There's no consumer protection. There's no, you know,
- 24:00Speaker 2: there's no scruples. I mean, the people who built this
- 24:03Speaker 2: are just refining the same tactics of the slot machines,
- 24:08Speaker 2: which are designed to make you go broke over time.
- 24:12Speaker 3: Yes.
- 24:12Speaker 2: If they bleed you on every spin, it wouldn't be fun.
- 24:17Speaker 2: They have to bleed you so that you lose it
- 24:19Speaker 2: over two hours instead of 20 minutes. So you think
- 24:21Speaker 2: you have a chance. That's the game.
- 24:23Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 24:23Speaker 3: It's hacking the human mind.
- 24:25Speaker 2: Right.
- 24:25Speaker 3: That's what it is.
- 24:26Speaker 1: So all of those personal responsibility, et cetera, they spend
- 24:30Speaker 1: millions and millions and millions of dollars to figure out
- 24:33Speaker 1: how to hack human psychology and get you in and
- 24:37Speaker 1: keep you in. And for, unfortunately, a significant minority percentage,
- 24:41Speaker 1: especially of young men. It works like a charm and
- 24:44Speaker 1: they get you in their grips and it's very.
- 24:47Speaker 3: Hard to get out of. The thing you're talking, I mean,
- 24:49Speaker 3: I think it all should be banned.
- 24:51Speaker 1: I think we should go back to the days when
- 24:52Speaker 1: you had to go to the casino and there's some
- 24:54Speaker 1: barrier to entry or you had to like, you know,
- 24:56Speaker 1: know a bookie and do something sketchy on the black market, whatever.
- 24:59Speaker 1: I think we need to go back to those days
- 25:01Speaker 1: because it's so clear to me now how devastating this
- 25:04Speaker 1: absolutely is.
- 25:05Speaker 3: But at the very least.
- 25:07Speaker 1: The kind of crap you're talking about where they can
- 25:08Speaker 1: just rig it, where if you're too good, they just
- 25:10Speaker 1: like ban you from the app or they, you know,
- 25:13Speaker 1: make it limit your actions so that you can't ever
- 25:16Speaker 1: come out ahead.
- 25:17Speaker 3: How is that legal? That shouldn't be legal. That's completely insane.
- 25:21Speaker 2: It's nuts.
- 25:21Speaker 1: But they've, you know, they've bought the system and they've
- 25:24Speaker 1: paid off whoever they needed to pay off. And so
- 25:26Speaker 1: they're able to operate in what should be a completely
- 25:29Speaker 1: criminal fashion that I think anyone would look at.
- 25:31Speaker 3: And the other thing about this is like, this is
- 25:34Speaker 3: what we're getting for AI. Where are my cures to cancer?
- 25:37Speaker 10: I know.
- 25:37Speaker 1: Where's the solution to climate change I was promised? No,
- 25:40Speaker 1: instead I'm getting AI-derived algorithms to target gambling addicts and
- 25:46Speaker 1: make them even more miserable and drowning in debt than
- 25:48Speaker 1: they already are.
- 25:49Speaker 3: That's great.
- 25:50Speaker 6: Love that.
- 25:50Speaker 2: And then let's talk about the prediction markets. So if
- 25:53Speaker 2: I were to sit with the prediction market, they would say, Sagar,
- 25:55Speaker 2: you're absolutely right. That's why the casino industry is corrupt,
- 25:58Speaker 2: and that's why our platform is so much better. Because
- 26:02Speaker 2: by definition, we can't limit people's action. We are not
- 26:06Speaker 2: the house which is setting the line or taking advantage
- 26:09Speaker 2: of these people in a certain way. And to that,
- 26:12Speaker 2: I would say, show me your win-loss percentage. Just show
- 26:15Speaker 2: me the amount of customers which actually take profit. Yeah,
- 26:18Speaker 2: it's great that you don't limit sharp bettors. It's great
- 26:21Speaker 2: out of all of that. But how many of the
- 26:23Speaker 2: people actually win? And look, we can do some general math.
- 26:28Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and put E6 up here on the screen.
- 26:31Speaker 2: So it turns out that last week, so week two
- 26:34Speaker 2: of the NFL, take a look at this. Kalshi did
- 26:37Speaker 2: 15.3 billion in notional volume last week. 60% of that
- 26:45Speaker 2: volume is on parlay bets, which are entirely based on
- 26:50Speaker 2: sporting events. This is Dustin Goker. He's a long-time analyst
- 26:54Speaker 2: in the industry. He says, my read is it's going
- 26:56Speaker 2: to be pretty difficult to frame this as non-gambling activity. Yeah,
- 26:59Speaker 2: you think? And this is where, you know, if I
- 27:02Speaker 2: were to sit with CalSheet, because they're going to sell
- 27:04Speaker 2: me this whole spiel about how we don't ban bettors
- 27:07Speaker 2: like the way you're talking about, Crystal. That's immoral. And
- 27:10Speaker 2: that's why we're so much better. Well, guys, If 60%
- 27:14Speaker 2: of the money is being bet on a parlay bet,
- 27:18Speaker 2: and by the way, as we showed you on this
- 27:19Speaker 2: show last week, the people who are taking the other
- 27:22Speaker 2: side of that parlay are FanDuel and DraftKings, then you're
- 27:27Speaker 2: doing the same shit. And that those parlay bets have
- 27:31Speaker 2: a 20 to 15% house edge. which means that 15
- 27:35Speaker 2: to 20 percent of money went to the same company
- 27:38Speaker 2: that Kalshi and them are saying that they are better than.
- 27:41Speaker 2: That's where all this money is going. I mean, it's
- 27:44Speaker 2: just so like 15 billion dollars in a single week.
- 27:49Speaker 2: This is bigger than MPAA, the motion picture industry. This
- 27:52Speaker 2: is bigger than all forms of entertainment combined. And it's
- 27:58Speaker 2: just business as normal, enabled by the rest of these,
- 28:02Speaker 2: enabled by the Trump administration, but every state in the nation,
- 28:06Speaker 2: because they've all got their handouts. You know, to the
- 28:08Speaker 2: extent the states have a problem with Kalshi, they're not
- 28:10Speaker 2: getting any tax revenue. Tax revenue is the problem here.
- 28:13Speaker 2: How about the fact that, you know, how about the
- 28:16Speaker 2: fact that bankruptcy and credit card debt goes up by 25%
- 28:19Speaker 2: in any of the state that legalizes this stuff? And
- 28:22Speaker 2: now we have California and Texas That are in on
- 28:24Speaker 2: the action. Just wait until the data comes out from
- 28:27Speaker 2: those states. It's going to be horrible.
- 28:28Speaker 1: And, you know, you think about we've talked about young
- 28:31Speaker 1: men struggling with crisis of purpose and meaning and challenges
- 28:36Speaker 1: in the dating market and all those sorts of things.
- 28:38Speaker 3: And this is sort of like feels.
- 28:41Speaker 1: Like a Band-Aid for that because you get that dopamine hit.
- 28:43Speaker 3: Like that guy that we played before.
- 28:45Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 28:45Speaker 3: How do you think this is going to go for
- 28:47Speaker 3: you long term? Do you think this is going to
- 28:49Speaker 3: increase your desirability? Do you think this is going to
- 28:52Speaker 3: increase your, you know?
- 28:54Speaker 2: You're speaking my language.
- 28:55Speaker 3: I mean, it's true, though. I agree. I agree.
- 28:57Speaker 1: I was just thinking about my daughter talks about this,
- 28:59Speaker 1: my oldest one, with some of the guys that she's dated.
- 29:03Speaker 3: She's like, they're always like, my parlay is going to hit.
- 29:05Speaker 2: I know.
- 29:06Speaker 3: She's like, your parlay is not going to hit.
- 29:09Speaker 2: Okay?
- 29:10Speaker 3: I have never experienced you hitting your parlay. It has
- 29:13Speaker 3: never happened.
- 29:14Speaker 2: Stop it.
- 29:15Speaker 1: And it's like, I'm sure she's not alone in feeling like,
- 29:19Speaker 1: why are you obsessed with this and throwing your money away?
- 29:22Speaker 1: Don't think that I'm going to be in this one
- 29:24Speaker 1: for the long haul. So just, you know, just another
- 29:27Speaker 1: thing to add to your considerations is your approach.
- 29:29Speaker 2: I want to tell the guys that I, and I'm
- 29:31Speaker 2: trying to start, maybe I'm the wrong person for it.
- 29:34Speaker 2: I want to start the same type of temperance movement
- 29:37Speaker 2: from the 1920s where women who are out there need
- 29:39Speaker 2: to be to make it known. If you are a
- 29:41Speaker 2: sports better, you're a fucking loser and you're not going
- 29:43Speaker 2: to get a date. And by definition, you're a literal loser.
- 29:47Speaker 2: And second, it means you have bad judgment. You have
- 29:49Speaker 2: bad impulse control. And you're not somebody who has the
- 29:53Speaker 2: wherewithal to stand up against the system and provide for
- 29:56Speaker 2: me in the long term. I think people should recognize
- 29:59Speaker 2: that if you're a woman. And you're out there on
- 30:00Speaker 2: a first date. One of the first questions you should
- 30:02Speaker 2: try to suss out is, hey, do you regularly bet
- 30:05Speaker 2: on sports? If you do, red flag, leave.
- 30:08Speaker 6: Completely.
- 30:08Speaker 2: It's one of those where, you know, and, you know,
- 30:11Speaker 2: look at the data. Dave Ramsey says it all the time.
- 30:14Speaker 2: Money is the number one cause of divorce in North America.
- 30:17Speaker 2: So if you think that that's not going to spiral,
- 30:19Speaker 2: you know, out of control, then you're going to see, too, like.
- 30:22Speaker 2: The type of person who thinks the parlay is going
- 30:25Speaker 2: to bet is exactly the type of person who is
- 30:27Speaker 2: going to have long-term credit card debt, who doesn't understand
- 30:30Speaker 2: the financial situation, who by literal definition can't do math.
- 30:36Speaker 2: I mean, all of these are not working out in
- 30:39Speaker 2: your favor. I say all of this, though, and I
- 30:41Speaker 2: still feel bad because I'm still pitting the individual against
- 30:44Speaker 2: the system. And the point is, the individual should be
- 30:47Speaker 2: protected by the system.
- 30:49Speaker 3: Agreed.
- 30:49Speaker 2: But that's not how our economy works. Our economy... I mean,
- 30:52Speaker 2: you know, I've flown for free all over the world
- 30:55Speaker 2: off of credit card points. I have to be real.
- 30:58Speaker 2: The only reason I get to do that is because
- 30:59Speaker 2: of idiots like that guy who carry 80% balance and pay,
- 31:04Speaker 2: you know, exorbitant interest rates. Like, the flights aren't free. And,
- 31:07Speaker 2: you know, if you own stocks, the whole U.S. economy
- 31:11Speaker 2: relies on this guy, you know, just going out and spending.
- 31:15Speaker 2: And that's the tragedy. Like, we're all kind of complicit
- 31:18Speaker 2: in it. But at the end of the day, you know,
- 31:20Speaker 2: you need... people who are courageous enough to be like,
- 31:23Speaker 2: I don't want to make money this, you know, not
- 31:25Speaker 2: all money is easy money. Like it's one of the
- 31:27Speaker 2: most ancient things in society is to say usury is bad.
- 31:32Speaker 2: Debt and debt, you know, people who purvey it are evil,
- 31:36Speaker 2: are like pervading the community. Exactly. Like thieves, you know,
- 31:40Speaker 2: horse thief was always considered one of the most villainous
- 31:44Speaker 2: crimes of the West. And it was like the type
- 31:46Speaker 2: of person who would do that in the absence of
- 31:49Speaker 2: law and order has to be hung or shot is
- 31:52Speaker 2: because they will violate the most basic social contract and
- 31:56Speaker 2: they will take advantage of the overall system. But whenever
- 31:59Speaker 2: we have a system which is so disconnected and kind
- 32:03Speaker 2: of faceless in the way AI is, we don't have
- 32:05Speaker 2: community enforcement in that same way. So anyway, we should
- 32:08Speaker 2: hang horse thieves again.
- 32:09Speaker 6: That's what I'm saying.
- 32:11Speaker 2: I'm not joking.
- 32:12Speaker 1: I didn't know the history of horse thievery and how
- 32:15Speaker 1: consequential it was in Western civilization.
- 32:18Speaker 2: It's very important. It's very important. Look it up. Look
- 32:21Speaker 2: at the way they saw it.
- 32:22Speaker 3: I believe you. Yeah. No, we've got the three legs of.
- 32:24Speaker 1: The American economy stool are like health care for old people, gambling,
- 32:30Speaker 1: and AI bubble.
- 32:31Speaker 2: AI CapEx.
- 32:32Speaker 9: Yeah.
- 32:33Speaker 3: That's a very healthy economy we've got here, guys.
- 32:36Speaker 6: All right.
- 32:37Speaker 2: Kevin Rue's standing by.
- 32:38Speaker 6: Let's get to it.
- 32:41Speaker 2: Very excited now to be joined by our friend of
- 32:43Speaker 2: the show, Kevin Roos, formerly of the New York Times,
- 32:45Speaker 2: but he is now the host of the Machine Gods pod.
- 32:49Speaker 2: We will have a link down in the description and
- 32:51Speaker 2: also author of a forthcoming book, the AGI Chronicles. So, Kevin,
- 32:55Speaker 2: you wrote your very last piece, column here for the
- 32:59Speaker 2: New York Times, which we can put up here on
- 33:01Speaker 2: the screen. The world is talking about AI dangers. Now
- 33:05Speaker 2: it is time to act. You see reason for optimism
- 33:09Speaker 2: and worry as the world wakes up. to what Silicon
- 33:11Speaker 2: Valley has been talking about for years. You don't have
- 33:14Speaker 2: to give away your book and we'll have you on
- 33:15Speaker 2: separately to talk about it, but this is your area
- 33:18Speaker 2: of expertise. You've been following pretty daily the ins and outs,
- 33:22Speaker 2: kind of all of these discussions around AGI. Give us
- 33:26Speaker 2: a sense in the column in particular, the world is
- 33:29Speaker 2: waking up, there's something to be done, but what actually
- 33:31Speaker 2: needs to be done and what are we waking up to?
- 33:35Speaker 11: Well, the thing we're waking up to is what the
- 33:37Speaker 11: people in San Francisco where I live and in the
- 33:40Speaker 11: AI labs where I just spent the past couple of
- 33:42Speaker 11: years reporting this book have been saying amongst themselves for years,
- 33:46Speaker 11: which is these systems are getting very powerful. That progress
- 33:50Speaker 11: does not appear to be slowing down. In fact, it
- 33:52Speaker 11: is accelerating because the AI is becoming capable of contributing
- 33:56Speaker 11: to development of more AI. So we have this sort
- 33:59Speaker 11: of recursive self-improvement, as it's known. That cycle is starting
- 34:03Speaker 11: to kick off now. And this is something that people
- 34:06Speaker 11: I've talked to in the industry have been worried about
- 34:08Speaker 11: for years. There have been papers and blog posts and
- 34:11Speaker 11: conference panels about this moment.
- 34:14Speaker 6: But it was a very.
- 34:15Speaker 11: Small group and they were very sort of fringe within
- 34:19Speaker 11: the academic research community and nobody really took them seriously.
- 34:22Speaker 6: And what we've seen over.
- 34:23Speaker 11: The past couple of weeks with Jacob Coxon resigning from
- 34:26Speaker 11: Anthropic and Dario Amadei putting out a statement about pacing
- 34:30Speaker 11: the frontier and all the other AI CEOs piling in
- 34:33Speaker 11: to say, yeah, We think this is going too fast.
- 34:35Speaker 11: That's what people are waking up to. And I think
- 34:37Speaker 11: that's the message that is finally being heard.
- 34:39Speaker 2: Got it.
- 34:40Speaker 3: Let's go and put F7 up on the screen.
- 34:42Speaker 1: This was a recent announcement that speaks to the power
- 34:45Speaker 1: of these models. For a long time, particularly on the left,
- 34:48Speaker 1: there's been a lot of skepticism that the models would
- 34:51Speaker 1: ultimately be very powerful.
- 34:53Speaker 3: They view it and some still view it as powerful.
- 34:56Speaker 1: Just sort of fancy autocorrect or fancy our stochastic parrot or,
- 35:01Speaker 1: you know, that this is all really hype. You now
- 35:04Speaker 1: have OpenAI announcing that they have resolved, their model has
- 35:08Speaker 1: resolved more than 100 longstanding open problems across most areas
- 35:12Speaker 1: of mathematics.
- 35:13Speaker 3: We're waiting to.
- 35:14Speaker 1: Get the list of what exactly those are, but it
- 35:17Speaker 1: is in recent memory that these models could not solve
- 35:21Speaker 1: basic addition, elementary level, then it was high school level,
- 35:24Speaker 1: then it was elite high school level, then it was
- 35:26Speaker 1: college level, then it was PhD level. Now you have
- 35:29Speaker 1: OpenAI claiming they solved one of these millennium math problems
- 35:33Speaker 1: that if you're a mathematician, you solve it, you get
- 35:35Speaker 1: a million dollars. There is some contestation about exactly how
- 35:38Speaker 1: all of that went down. But if you look at
- 35:40Speaker 1: the progress over just a few years, this blew away
- 35:45Speaker 1: what even many people who were very bullish on the
- 35:48Speaker 1: power of the technology saw.
- 35:50Speaker 3: Predicted here.
- 35:51Speaker 1: So help put this in context, this latest revelation from
- 35:54Speaker 1: OpenAI and what it says about the current capabilities of
- 35:57Speaker 1: these models and where they may be going.
- 36:00Speaker 6: It's absolutely huge.
- 36:01Speaker 11: I mean, the Millennium Prize problems are the seven open
- 36:05Speaker 11: problems in math that are considered the hardest. And as
- 36:07Speaker 11: you said, if you're a human mathematician and you win one,
- 36:10Speaker 11: you not only get a million dollars, but you become
- 36:12Speaker 11: a famous mathematician, right? People sort of record your names
- 36:15Speaker 11: in the annals of history. these models now are solving
- 36:19Speaker 11: these problems like they're easy. So the models have gone
- 36:24Speaker 11: from quickly being subhuman at math, you know, being not
- 36:28Speaker 11: able to do basic arithmetic, to being wildly superhuman at math.
- 36:33Speaker 11: And you can run them in parallel, many, many copies
- 36:36Speaker 11: of them to expend the kind of time trying to
- 36:39Speaker 11: crack one of these problems that a human would take,
- 36:42Speaker 11: you know, many lifetimes to spend. So it really is
- 36:45Speaker 11: an unfair fight in mathematics. And I think what the
- 36:47Speaker 11: people on the inside see that maybe it's harder to
- 36:50Speaker 11: understand from the outside is that this is not just math.
- 36:53Speaker 11: This kind of progress, this exponential growth in capabilities is
- 36:58Speaker 11: happening in discipline after discipline after discipline. They are seeing
- 37:02Speaker 11: this sort of wherever they point their kind of tractor
- 37:04Speaker 11: beam of compute and resources. they're finding that these models
- 37:09Speaker 11: are incredibly capable. So yeah, I think it's a very
- 37:12Speaker 11: significant sort of application of these things.
- 37:14Speaker 6: I hope that they're followed by other big problems.
- 37:18Speaker 11: In science, but this is the kind of progress that
- 37:21Speaker 11: has been freaking out people on the inside for years.
- 37:23Speaker 2: Kevin, you don't have a vested financial interest in any
- 37:27Speaker 2: of this.
- 37:27Speaker 6: You're a reporter.
- 37:27Speaker 2: You've been following this now for quite some time. We
- 37:30Speaker 2: will hear significant pushback, even from some of our own audiences.
- 37:34Speaker 2: We're falling from marketing hype. You know, 100 problems, what
- 37:38Speaker 2: does that even mean? Isn't this just marketing for their
- 37:42Speaker 2: products to get people like us to talk about it?
- 37:45Speaker 2: How do you suss that out, having been in this
- 37:48Speaker 2: world now for quite some time?
- 37:50Speaker 6: Yeah, I used to share some of that skepticism.
- 37:52Speaker 11: I thought, you know, these tech companies are always telling
- 37:54Speaker 11: us they've changed the world and the truth is never
- 37:56Speaker 11: that simple. But what convinced me was just using the
- 38:00Speaker 11: models and seeing how good they were getting at doing
- 38:03Speaker 11: programming problems for me, at doing various tasks that I
- 38:06Speaker 11: needed them to do. I didn't used to be able
- 38:08Speaker 11: to use these models for serious work, and now I do.
- 38:12Speaker 11: But I think the thing that is, even if you're
- 38:14Speaker 11: skeptical that this is all marketing hype, which I don't
- 38:16Speaker 11: think it is, by the way, because these people have
- 38:18Speaker 11: been saying the same things for years before they had
- 38:21Speaker 11: anything to market. I would just say the thing that
- 38:24Speaker 11: should still freak you out is how much these AI
- 38:27Speaker 11: labs are relying on their own models for internal automation.
- 38:31Speaker 11: for doing their own work. Anthropic recently put out a
- 38:34Speaker 11: thing saying that Claude, their AI, is now the lead
- 38:38Speaker 11: researcher on 26% of their AI research and development tasks.
- 38:43Speaker 11: Not an assistant, not something that they can sort of
- 38:46Speaker 11: hand tasks off to, leading the project. So I think
- 38:51Speaker 11: that should freak people out, even if they're skeptical about
- 38:53Speaker 11: the claims about the Millennium Prize problems or whatever. The
- 38:57Speaker 11: labs are now using this stuff so regularly that that
- 39:01Speaker 11: it is starting, they are starting to kind of turn
- 39:03Speaker 11: over control of these systems to their own AIs.
- 39:07Speaker 1: Your former colleague Ezra Klein wrote about this recently and
- 39:10Speaker 1: did a podcast about it and talked about how the
- 39:13Speaker 1: decision that's being made in those instances is not that
- 39:17Speaker 1: we're losing control of the AI, which is obviously something
- 39:20Speaker 1: that has also happened that we are concerned about seeing
- 39:22Speaker 1: in the future as well. What recursive self-improvement means is
- 39:26Speaker 1: that you are handing over control to the AI and
- 39:29Speaker 1: he calls for an outright ban. Do you see that
- 39:33Speaker 1: as something worth pursuing or something that is even truly feasible,
- 39:38Speaker 1: given that sometimes the definitions of these things can be
- 39:40Speaker 1: sort of hard to pin down?
- 39:42Speaker 11: Yeah, I think I'm sort of behind it in spirit,
- 39:45Speaker 11: but I would obviously want to be very focused on
- 39:47Speaker 11: the details. I think it's very hard to implement something
- 39:49Speaker 11: like a ban on recursive self-improvement. Does that mean that
- 39:53Speaker 11: if you work at OpenAI, you can't use AI for coding,
- 39:56Speaker 11: but if you work at a different company or a
- 39:58Speaker 11: supplier company, you can?
- 40:00Speaker 6: I just don't know how that works.
- 40:02Speaker 11: But yeah, I think this is the real danger here
- 40:05Speaker 11: is not that we are going to lose control, that
- 40:07Speaker 11: some rogue agents are going to sort of break out
- 40:09Speaker 11: of their box and go attack companies. That obviously would
- 40:13Speaker 11: be bad and we should prevent that. The danger is
- 40:16Speaker 11: that we are creating this cycle inside the AI labs.
- 40:20Speaker 11: They are turning over, they are giving away control of
- 40:23Speaker 11: their own research and development process to their AIs, which
- 40:27Speaker 11: they have not figured out how to control yet.
- 40:29Speaker 6: And so we are.
- 40:30Speaker 3: Basically putting the- And which they don't understand.
- 40:32Speaker 1: You know, I can't remember who I saw referencing back.
- 40:35Speaker 1: Sagar will probably remember recently to the incident you had
- 40:37Speaker 1: with one of the early models where it like, you know, convinced.
- 40:40Speaker 2: Yeah, that was Google.
- 40:42Speaker 1: I fell in love with you and was trying to
- 40:43Speaker 1: get you to leave your wife and all this sort
- 40:46Speaker 1: of crazy stuff. And I was just sort of like, well,
- 40:48Speaker 1: that's weird anyway, moving on. But we never actually got
- 40:51Speaker 1: to the like, why was it doing that? Even from
- 40:53Speaker 1: that early version. These things are what they call black boxes.
- 40:57Speaker 1: It's not like a program that you code. They have
- 40:59Speaker 1: behavior that is emergent, that is not understood. And so
- 41:03Speaker 1: rather than trying to figure out what's going on so
- 41:06Speaker 1: that then we can build more powerful models that we
- 41:09Speaker 1: perhaps understand, we never got to that place of even
- 41:13Speaker 1: understanding the more powerful.
- 41:14Speaker 3: Basic models.
- 41:15Speaker 1: And I'm not sure that I actually think the American
- 41:17Speaker 1: people do sort of understand or have a feel for
- 41:20Speaker 1: that because you're seeing this tremendous opposition to what the
- 41:23Speaker 1: AI labs are doing at this point.
- 41:26Speaker 6: I think that's right.
- 41:26Speaker 11: I think people, even if they don't really have the
- 41:28Speaker 11: terminology to like put their finger on exactly what it
- 41:31Speaker 11: is that feels bad about what the AI companies are doing,
- 41:34Speaker 11: I think people understand that these systems are getting better
- 41:37Speaker 11: and we don't like it.
- 41:38Speaker 6: It's a threat to our jobs.
- 41:40Speaker 11: It's a threat to potentially our lives and our children's futures.
- 41:44Speaker 11: Like This is what freaks people out. I started getting
- 41:46Speaker 11: texts from people over the last couple of weeks, just
- 41:48Speaker 11: people outside the tech industry, like, hey, are we all
- 41:52Speaker 11: going to die? That seems bad. So I think this
- 41:56Speaker 11: is breaking through, and I don't want to be glib
- 41:58Speaker 11: about it. The people inside the labs, they are genuinely
- 42:01Speaker 11: concerned that the technology that they are building could kill
- 42:05Speaker 11: everyone on earth. That is not marketing hype. That is
- 42:07Speaker 11: not a stunt. That is not just some clickbait that
- 42:11Speaker 11: people are putting on their press releases that I have
- 42:14Speaker 11: talked to these people on the record, off the record,
- 42:16Speaker 11: in public, in private.
- 42:17Speaker 6: They say the same thing every time.
- 42:19Speaker 11: In fact, they are watering down how likely it is
- 42:23Speaker 11: that they think AI could kill us all in public.
- 42:25Speaker 11: Their real projections are even scarier than what they'll say online.
- 42:29Speaker 2: Wow. You see, so many people have such an immediate
- 42:34Speaker 2: revulsion to that because you're like, then why are you
- 42:36Speaker 2: building it? Like, what are you doing here? Can you
- 42:38Speaker 2: answer that question for us?
- 42:40Speaker 11: I think there are a few reasons that I've heard
- 42:42Speaker 11: people give. And again, I talked to more than 150
- 42:45Speaker 11: of these people for my latest book. So I feel
- 42:47Speaker 11: like I understand their motivations pretty well. For a lot
- 42:50Speaker 11: of them, it's the curiosity of it. It's the what's
- 42:53Speaker 11: out there. They're seekers. They want to know like, how
- 42:56Speaker 11: smart can we make these things? What could they discover?
- 42:59Speaker 11: They want these things to go out and solve diseases
- 43:02Speaker 11: and cure cancer and fix the climate and things like that.
- 43:05Speaker 11: For other people, though, there's this sense that if we
- 43:07Speaker 11: don't do it, someone worse will, right?
- 43:09Speaker 6: Like if we The AI.
- 43:11Speaker 11: Company in San Francisco don't create this technology. The recipe
- 43:16Speaker 11: is not a secret.
- 43:17Speaker 6: It's out there.
- 43:18Speaker 11: Anyone with the right resources can build, theoretically, the self-improving
- 43:25Speaker 11: robot that takes over the world. So we have to
- 43:28Speaker 11: get there first so that we can put our safety
- 43:30Speaker 11: practices in place so that we don't blow up the world.
- 43:34Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit about the financial
- 43:36Speaker 1: aspect of these things. So both Anthropic and OpenAI are
- 43:40Speaker 1: planning IPOs. Anthropix is more imminent. OpenAI, Sam Altman just said,
- 43:45Speaker 1: they're pushing theirs.
- 43:45Speaker 3: Off a year.
- 43:47Speaker 1: The always colorful Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, was recently
- 43:51Speaker 1: on CNBC saying, making the claim that he doesn't think
- 43:54Speaker 1: OpenAI will ever go public. The reasons he gives are
- 43:57Speaker 1: kind of interesting. Let's go and take a listen to that.
- 43:59Speaker 12: The first line of defense is you're liable for your
- 44:02Speaker 12: own actions. So it's a weird twist. They're asking for
- 44:05Speaker 12: societal regulation to get out of the first line of defense,
- 44:09Speaker 12: which is if you build a technology that can destroy 10%
- 44:11Speaker 12: of the world, That has civil and criminal liability attached
- 44:18Speaker 12: to it. The first step is to say, okay, it
- 44:21Speaker 12: is not, the first step isn't to say we get
- 44:22Speaker 12: out of it because we want to self-regulate or we
- 44:24Speaker 12: want regulation. The first step is to say, okay, you've
- 44:27Speaker 12: disclosed this, what are you doing about it? And the
- 44:30Speaker 12: second step is to say, if you're not doing it,
- 44:32Speaker 12: you're not being responsible, we're going to have to get
- 44:34Speaker 12: people involved. That's going to be also very complicated because
- 44:37Speaker 12: regulating these things needs people, you need people who understand them.
- 44:40Speaker 12: Another problem we have is seemingly everyone who understands this
- 44:43Speaker 12: is on some payroll. So it's like, you know, it's like,
- 44:45Speaker 12: who are you going to trust? You know, when we
- 44:47Speaker 12: built nuclear energy, we built the bomb. People did it
- 44:49Speaker 12: because they believe they were not on the payroll. The
- 44:53Speaker 12: liability that you're talking about, how does that get written
- 44:55Speaker 12: into the S-1?
- 44:56Speaker 2: What do risk factors sound like?
- 44:58Speaker 9: This is the thing.
- 45:00Speaker 12: You're assuming that there will be an S-1.
- 45:03Speaker 9: Okay, maybe there will be. The only way to deal with.
- 45:06Speaker 12: This kind of liability is to go to the government
- 45:09Speaker 12: and say, nationalize us, please. You know, a lot of
- 45:12Speaker 12: times in business, people don't say what they want.
- 45:14Speaker 9: They're leading you to the conclusion.
- 45:16Speaker 12: The reason why people have not understood this is, again,
- 45:19Speaker 12: every investor, and there are a lot of people who
- 45:21Speaker 12: think they're going to make money, they're like, oh, the
- 45:23Speaker 12: businesses are the mark. What is the first lesson in
- 45:27Speaker 12: poker and in life? If you think the other person's
- 45:31Speaker 12: the mark, you're the mark.
- 45:33Speaker 9: You are the mark.
- 45:35Speaker 12: And it will be nationalized simply because of the liability issues.
- 45:40Speaker 3: So he says it will be nationalized.
- 45:42Speaker 1: There will be no IPO because of the liability issues.
- 45:46Speaker 3: And, I mean, it speaks to what we're talking about here.
- 45:48Speaker 3: I have lots of issues with Alex Kerb, as you
- 45:50Speaker 3: can imagine.
- 45:51Speaker 1: But how are you going to have a bank that
- 45:54Speaker 1: underwrites a company that's saying— eh, there's a pretty good
- 45:58Speaker 1: chance we may destroy the whole world.
- 45:59Speaker 3: And if we don't, we may cause some.
- 46:01Speaker 1: Sort of a totally catastrophic mass death crisis. Let's go
- 46:06Speaker 1: ahead and please underwrite my IPO now.
- 46:09Speaker 3: Does he have a point here?
- 46:11Speaker 1: How do you think about the financials of these companies
- 46:13Speaker 1: as they move towards going public?
- 46:16Speaker 11: Yeah, I don't think he has much of a point here.
- 46:18Speaker 11: I don't understand the whole case he's making, but I
- 46:20Speaker 11: think it's basically that that these companies can't go public
- 46:23Speaker 11: because if they were public, they would get sued for
- 46:26Speaker 11: their products causing harm. And I wish the public markets
- 46:30Speaker 11: were that effective a check on corporate malfeasance, but we
- 46:34Speaker 11: have pharmaceutical companies, airlines, all manner of companies who have
- 46:38Speaker 11: products that have risk attached to them that have gone
- 46:41Speaker 11: public just fine. I think if and when Anthropic and
- 46:43Speaker 11: OpenAI decide to go public, they will go public.
- 46:45Speaker 6: Banks will line up to underwrite them because guess what?
- 46:48Speaker 11: It's going to be a trillion dollar plus IPO each
- 46:52Speaker 11: time for both of those companies. So the fees that
- 46:54Speaker 11: they make alone will be astronomical. These companies are not
- 46:58Speaker 11: in bad financial shape. People keep saying this, especially on
- 47:02Speaker 11: the left. And I think it's a weird like it
- 47:04Speaker 11: just is is out of touch with reality. Yes, these
- 47:07Speaker 11: businesses are spending tons of money to train these models
- 47:10Speaker 11: and put up data centers and all the rest of it.
- 47:12Speaker 6: Yes, they are not profitable.
- 47:14Speaker 11: But their revenue is growing faster than any companies in
- 47:16Speaker 11: the history of capitalism.
- 47:18Speaker 6: And we're sitting here thinking, oh.
- 47:19Speaker 11: Well, if you carry the one and subtract five, it
- 47:23Speaker 11: doesn't pencil out and they can't go public. I think
- 47:25Speaker 11: it's much better as a mode of analysis to assume
- 47:28Speaker 11: that these companies are going to be extremely successful unless
- 47:31Speaker 11: and until someone stops them from building the recursively self-improving superintelligence.
- 47:36Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 47:37Speaker 2: My last question for you here is around some of
- 47:40Speaker 2: the existential risks. So there was recently this report, let's
- 47:43Speaker 2: put F5 here. Anthropic is now operating a lab that
- 47:47Speaker 2: conducts biology experiments known as a wet lab, where, quote,
- 47:53Speaker 2: obviously it's done under the auspices of trying to create
- 47:58Speaker 2: cures for diseases. Sounds a lot like gain-of-function research, which
- 48:02Speaker 2: is kind of the way I've been thinking about a
- 48:03Speaker 2: lot of recursive self-improvement and some of the other developments
- 48:07Speaker 2: within AI. But talk through us, do they really believe
- 48:12Speaker 2: that they're doing it much like with gain-of-function for good purposes?
- 48:16Speaker 2: And do they even think, Anthropic is supposed to be
- 48:19Speaker 2: the company that thinks about risk and still presses forward
- 48:22Speaker 2: with what I think is the most outright example of
- 48:25Speaker 2: Everyone being like, oh, I don't think we need any
- 48:27Speaker 2: of that.
- 48:29Speaker 11: Yeah, if they ever start experimenting on AI pangolins, I'm
- 48:32Speaker 11: out of here.
- 48:33Speaker 2: I'm like, hold on a second.
- 48:37Speaker 11: But no, look, I think the term wet lab has
- 48:40Speaker 11: a lot of baggage attached.
- 48:40Speaker 6: To it for obvious reasons. Everyone remembers COVID.
- 48:44Speaker 11: But this is the thing, that these companies are serious
- 48:47Speaker 11: and sincere about wanting AI to do science. They feel
- 48:50Speaker 11: like they have to deliver science on some of these
- 48:52Speaker 11: benefits like curing diseases and stopping certain forms of cancer.
- 48:56Speaker 6: Um, because otherwise people will just see this as the slop.
- 49:00Speaker 11: Machines that just take your job and make your kid
- 49:03Speaker 11: miserable and help them cheat in school. Like that is
- 49:06Speaker 11: the PR crisis that they see. So they want to,
- 49:08Speaker 11: they actually do sincerely want to have their AI start
- 49:12Speaker 11: curing diseases and making progress. But to do that, you
- 49:16Speaker 11: need to automate the whole process. You need to get
- 49:19Speaker 11: the human bottlenecks out of the way, whether that's having
- 49:22Speaker 11: faster clinical trials. You have to give them control of
- 49:26Speaker 11: a wet lab so they can bring pipettes over.
- 49:29Speaker 6: And I don't know, whatever they.
- 49:30Speaker 11: Do in the wet lab, that has to move at
- 49:32Speaker 11: the speed of AI rather than the speed of humans.
- 49:34Speaker 11: So I think they're sincere. I think it's high risk.
- 49:37Speaker 11: but I think it's also a potentially high reward. And
- 49:39Speaker 11: I think if we want these people to do AI
- 49:41Speaker 11: for science, which I personally do, I would rather them
- 49:43Speaker 11: do that than the recursively self-improving superintelligence, we have to
- 49:47Speaker 11: be okay with a little bit of risk and things
- 49:49Speaker 11: that might sound weird.
- 49:51Speaker 3: A few wet labs. Kevin, last question for you.
- 49:54Speaker 1: There's been a lot of debate also about the current
- 49:58Speaker 1: legal landscape and whether it is sufficient as currently in existence.
- 50:04Speaker 1: to hold these companies accountable for the harms that they
- 50:07Speaker 1: do cause. So there's been a whole debate, a lot
- 50:10Speaker 1: of antitrust folks involved, but just to use a hypothetical example,
- 50:14Speaker 1: let's say there is a lab leak, an AI-caused lab
- 50:18Speaker 1: leak from the Anthropic Wet Lab. Do we have the
- 50:22Speaker 1: legal tools to hold Anthropic directly liable?
- 50:26Speaker 3: Do we have the legal tools to hold OpenAI.
- 50:28Speaker 1: Liable for their model breaking out of the sandbox and
- 50:32Speaker 1: hacking Hugging Face?
- 50:35Speaker 3: Is that something that's.
- 50:36Speaker 1: Already in existence and just needs to be enforced? Or
- 50:40Speaker 1: do we actually need new laws specifically for those type
- 50:43Speaker 1: of instances? I also think we need laws to regulate
- 50:45Speaker 1: what the labs are doing themselves. I'm in favor of
- 50:48Speaker 1: no recursive self-improvement, stopping the development, ban on super intelligence,
- 50:52Speaker 1: but even putting those things aside, do we have some
- 50:55Speaker 1: tools now where we could hold these CEOs accountable for
- 50:59Speaker 1: the things that their models do?
- 51:01Speaker 6: We do, but it's not enough. And I'll tell you why.
- 51:04Speaker 11: So we have product liability laws in this country that
- 51:07Speaker 11: protect consumers. But those laws only apply to products that
- 51:12Speaker 11: are sold to the public, and they also don't cover
- 51:16Speaker 11: sort of extreme events. So like say there's an internal
- 51:19Speaker 11: deployment at one of these companies, a model that's not
- 51:21Speaker 11: been released to the public yet that goes off and
- 51:24Speaker 11: does something. This is exactly what we saw in the
- 51:26Speaker 11: Hugging Face attack, by the way. That was not a
- 51:28Speaker 11: public model. So those product liability laws would have a
- 51:33Speaker 11: hard time covering something like that. It's also going to
- 51:35Speaker 11: be cold comfort if there's a lab leak of an
- 51:38Speaker 11: AI-engineered pandemic that kills millions of people. We're not going
- 51:42Speaker 11: to be worried about how can we sue the AI company, right? Like,
- 51:45Speaker 11: I would much rather prevent the harm than be able
- 51:48Speaker 11: to reclaim some economic damages from the harm after it happens.
- 51:52Speaker 1: So the argument they would say, Kevin, is that if
- 51:55Speaker 1: the threat of that was real, then they would take
- 51:57Speaker 1: the precautions to make sure that the lab leak didn't
- 52:00Speaker 1: happen in the first place.
- 52:02Speaker 6: I don't buy it.
- 52:04Speaker 11: Airlines fly planes all the time. What keeps them honest
- 52:08Speaker 11: is not the fact that they could be sued for
- 52:11Speaker 11: a plane crash.
- 52:12Speaker 6: It's that there's a regulatory regime. It's that there's the FAA.
- 52:16Speaker 11: It's that they're mandated to do maintenance checks on all
- 52:18Speaker 11: the planes before every flight. We have laws and regulations
- 52:22Speaker 11: in place to keep people safe when they are flying
- 52:23Speaker 11: in an airplane. But we have zero laws, zero laws
- 52:27Speaker 11: that are tailored to this situation where you have AI
- 52:29Speaker 11: companies in San Francisco building godlike super intelligences. They can
- 52:33Speaker 11: do that much more easily than United Airlines.
- 52:36Speaker 6: Can get an FAA. can get a 747 off the ground.
- 52:39Speaker 2: Very well said. Also, we should not want to, because
- 52:42Speaker 2: if we live purely in the world of liability, it's
- 52:44Speaker 2: like that famous scene in Fight Club where it's like, well,
- 52:47Speaker 2: if the cost of paying out dead victims exceeds what
- 52:51Speaker 2: it would cost to fix the problem itself, only then
- 52:55Speaker 2: will we actually fix the problem. Otherwise, it's easier to
- 52:58Speaker 2: just pay the fine, as we've seen throughout history. So anyway,
- 53:02Speaker 2: very interesting. Kevin, well, excited to have you on. relatively
- 53:06Speaker 2: soon to talk about your new book whenever it comes out.
- 53:09Speaker 2: But in the interim, congratulations on the podcast. Everybody go subscribe.
- 53:13Speaker 2: I believe it's launching very soon. There'll be a link
- 53:15Speaker 2: down in our description.
- 53:16Speaker 3: Thank you, Kevin.
- 53:17Speaker 6: Thanks, guys.
- 53:19Speaker 2: Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.
- 53:21Speaker 2: I'm going to be out for the rest of the week.
- 53:22Speaker 2: So Ryan's in, you know, so you can all subscribe
- 53:26Speaker 2: and all of that. But I'll be on next week.
- 53:28Speaker 6: I'll see you then.