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Starmer Brexits · Pod Save the World

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  Speaker 1: Welcome back to Potsavi the World.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I'm Tommy Vitor, I'm Ben Rhoades.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Ben. That was a hell of a time in Chicago
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: last week for the Obama Library opening. Man, it's fun
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to see you briefly at Wilwind.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I get to foed In for the book tour,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: so I didn't get to get to all the parties
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: you guys went too, but I still had a great time.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: You missed the hangovers, which is nice for you. Well
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: maybe you didn't. I don't know. You saw you've been
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: a day with Cody as well, so you might've actually
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: tacked on both of those.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I'm hungover from fatigue from this book tour.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: But I.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Got to tour the museum on the day that it
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: was open to the public that's a course day, And
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: that was really kind of special because it was basically
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: all kind of South Side families and I was the
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: kind of only person there like who was kind of
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: an alumni. Yeah, and so I got to kind of
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: watch how other people were reacting to it. Yeah, and
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: that was pretty cool. You know, that is really cool.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I meaneah, like not to be corny, but it felt
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: like a family reunion and also a revival that left
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: me feeling like, I don't know what, like what other
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: work reunion like that? Are you that happy to see
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: so many different people, like genuinely like overjoyed to like
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: reconnect with people. And then also I like, again not
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: to be corny, but it really did make me want
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: to just be more involved in politics and like more
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: civically engaged in less of like a sineal asshole on Twitter,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: which you know, we'll see how long that holds. But
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: it was it was well done.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I have to say, like it affected me more
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: than I thought it would, both to have like thousands
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: of people there that I knew or could recognize, but
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: also just the kind of, you know, without even trying
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: that hard, the contrast of having you know, whatever you
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: think of the Obama as not being perfect, like decent,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: well meaning, motivated, articulate people, yeah, you know who like
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: have a certain decorum and respect for politics in the country,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: as contrasted against the nightmare that we live in every day.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was a powerful contrast.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the bar is low. I mean, Soasha Malia were
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: not day trading on the Obama Upper Operation on like
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Kelshier or whatever.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they didn't have a drone. They weren't selling drone
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: technology to the US government.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, no, it was. It was an awesome,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: awesome week. By the way, if you want discount of
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  Speaker 1: dot com slash friends to learn more. So we got
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: a great show for you guys. Today, we're going to
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: explain what's in the ceasefire memorandum that was signed by
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: the US and Israel. We'll walk you through all the details,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: which side got what they wanted, what's left to be negotiated,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: what's not mentioned at all. We'll also recap the first
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: round of peace talks in Switzerland and explain why there
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is still considerable ongoing risk of global economic disruptions from
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the closure of the Straight o' her moves and also
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: return to war, especially in Lebanon. Then we're going to
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: turn to the historic political changes happening in the UK
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: where Prime Minister Cure Starmer announced he's going to step
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: down and newly elected MP Andy Burnham will almost certainly
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: take his place. Then we're going to talk about why
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Israel decided to become the first country in the world
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland. Will cover the recent
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: elections in Colombia, and then revel in the joy that
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: is the FIFA World Cup. And then Ben, you did
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: an interview today. What do we here?
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: So?
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I talked to Rana Ayub, the extraordinary investigative journalist from
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: India who's been on the pod a couple of times.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: We talk about this new cockroach movement that has emerged
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: in India against corruption and Modi. If you want to
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: know more about how there is a movement called the
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: cockroach movement that it's got fire, definitely check out the interview.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: We'll also hear about how Modi's up and down relationship
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: with Trump is playing in India, how the war in
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Iran is impacting Indians, how the bromance with Nanyau, which
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: included a trip to Israel on the eve of the
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: warn Iran that is now retavoc on the Indian economy
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: has gone down, so good checking on India, which we
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: haven't done in a while. Indian politics and foreign policy.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: People should check it out.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Didn't the US shoot like a bunch of missiles into
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the ship and they'd killed three Indian sailors in the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: straight hermos?
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  Speaker 2: That's it? Yeah, Rana talked about this too. This is
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: the they killed three Indian sailors and Modi said nothing
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: about it.
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  Speaker 1: Do you imagine if they did that to us? I mean,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: it be a World War four.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I will definitely always listen to run on you.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: She's an incredible journalist, like you know, bravely doing work
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: under a great threat to herself and you know people
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: around her. So thank to her for coming on the show.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: All right, let's start with the what's in this MoU
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: ben because late last week we finally got to see
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the text of the memorandum of understanding signed by the
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: US and Iran, and it's now clear why Trump was
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: trying to hide the thing and not disclose it. So
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: the peace socks have also already begun. We'll get to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: that second, but we're going to start just by walking
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: you guys through what is and what is not in
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: this document. So there's a ceasefire, including in Lebanon. The
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: two sides agreed to sixty days of negotiations, but that
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: negotiating period period can be extended during that time. Though
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the sixty days, both sides will end the blockade of
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: the Straight or Hermuz, and the US will start to
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: move military assets out of the region that were used
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: as part of the war. And then Iran says they
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: will not put fees on ships pass through the strait
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: during the next sixty days, but down the road it
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: sure seems like they are planning to. And then this
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: is the list of stuff that isert categorized as what
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Iran wanted and got out of the deal. So the
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: US is going to put in place a sixty day waiver,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: a sanctions waiver on the sale of Iranian oil and
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: petroleum products and derivatives and such. One progressive economist estimated
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: that Iran could make up to ten billion dollars off
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: of that move alone. At some point in your future,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Iran's going to get access to about twenty four billion
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: in frozen assets. This is mostly money from previous Iranian
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: oil sales that got stuck in foreign bank accounts because
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: of sanctions, and the MoU language is quite clear that
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: they can spend this money on whatever they want, Like
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this is the text the funds quote shall be made
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by
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  Speaker 1: the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: gets a commitment to remove all sanctions. That means US
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: sanctions un sanctions all of them. And then there's this
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: weird proposal to put together a three hundred billion dollar
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: reconstruction fund of private money for Iran. I'm skeptical that
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: this is ever going to happen, but Reuter says there's
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: been one hundred and fifty billion in commitments, so who knows.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And then in terms of the US wish list ben
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: so the straight four moves gets reopened. Kind of like
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: in theory we're back to the pre war status quo,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: but in practice it's a lot more complicated because shipping
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: companies need to feel safe before they're going to send
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: their massive, multi billion dollar you know, tankers into war zones.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Iran reaffirms that they will never have a nuclear weapon.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: We say reaffirmed because they've already affirmed it before. Both
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: in the NPT and the JCPOA, getting them to say
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: that is not the hard park, you know, it's negotiating
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the ways to prevent it is the hard part. And
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: then in terms of enrichment, whether iron will enrich nuclear
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: materials going forward, it says the two parties also agree
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: to discuss the issue of enrichment, so they punt on
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: that big question. And then in terms of the stockpile
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: of highly enriched uranium, Iran has agreed to at least
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: down blend its stockpile of enriched uranium, but not necessarily
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: to ship it out of the country. Down blending means
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: you reduced the purity of the stockpile so that it
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: is less close to weapons grades. So maybe you down
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: blended to three point seven percent or three point six
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: seven percent, which is what you use in civilian energy projects,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: or point seven percent is sort of like what's found
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: in nature. But of course you can then enrich it
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: back up if it remains in the country. So not
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: mentioned in this deal is Iran support for proxy groups
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: like Hamas and Hezbola. Also not mentioned is Iran's ballistic
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: missile program, which at the beginning of the war we
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: were told was this massive existential threat that had to
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: be taken care of. Don't take it for me, then, here,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: Why does Iran want that realistic missile capability? What they
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: are trying to do, and have been trying to do
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: for a very long time, is build a conventional weapons
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: capability as a shield where it can hide, to hide it,
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: meaning there would come a point where they have so
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: many conventional missiles, so many drums, and it can inflict
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: so much damage that no one can do anything about
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: their nuclear program.
• 9:59
  Speaker 6: Iran was built powerful missiles and drones to create a
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions. Let me say
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: that again, a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions.
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: Our bases, our people, our allies all in their crosshairs.
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Forgot. We already also put the war crime beat poet
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Pete Hegsath in that clip. So Ben, We've said this
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: many times. The best available deal was the one that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: happened fastest and reopened the straight or hermus and prevented
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: economies in Asia from collapsing and famines from kicking off
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: around the world. But in terms of the stated goals
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: of this war, reading that document, we now know for
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: sure that Trump got taken to the cleaners by the Iridions.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you can compare it to also
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: where they were in the negotiating table before the war,
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: because we have to remember that we bombed around in
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: the middle of a previous negotiation. And again in that
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: previous negotiation, the US position was absolutely no enrichment, absolutely
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: no support for proxy groups, and geographic limitations on the
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: blistic missile program. They can't reach Israel with blistic missiles.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: The bolistic missiles and the proxy groups are completely off
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: the table and Richmond is punted. So it's not really
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: dealt with in this And then if you look at
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: compared to the jcpoa Iran did not get any money
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: from its own frozen assets, any money whatsoever until after
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: it did all of its commitments under the JCPA, shipping
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: out its stockpile, ripping out centrifuges, destroying the core of
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: its plutonium reactor, submitting to inspections. They're getting that ten
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: billion just upfront, like if they're able to start selling
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: right away or accessing. Yeah, so they're getting that money
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: without having to do anything with their nuclear program. Essentially upfront.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: We don't know what the final commitments are going to
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: be on the nuclear side. We don't know what the
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: inspections regime is going to be to ensure that Iran
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: carries through on on its obligations. It's incredibly loose, and
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: the body language of the deal is one of surrender.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: It's one of Iran won this war, we failed in
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: our objectives. Trump wants out. He's far more worried about
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: continuing the war, continuing how the straight orform moves shut
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: down because of the economic impacts. Then he is scared of,
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: you know, what Aram will do with the money, or
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: how it's going to look that Iran seemingly defeated the
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: United States in this conflict, that bebing in now is
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: upset about it. That's very clear to the whole world.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: And so that suggests that there's not a lot of
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: pressure on Iran to make significant commitments in this next
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: negotiating period because they know that Trump just kind of
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: wents out of this thing. And so, however this all
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: shakes out, Iran is in a stronger position than they
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: were before the war. The United States. Trump is doing
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: all the things that he trashed Obama for doing, and
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: frankly lied about some of the things that Obama was doing.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: And I mean, like, there's no way to look at
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: this other than a complete humiliation for Trump.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, glad the war is over. But I do
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: think it's important to to just call out how full
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: of shit in hypocritical Trump and a lot of his
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: goons were both in the lead up to this war,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: but also in their criticisms of the JCPOA. I mean, like,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I found this old tweet Tim Miller forwarded to me today. Ben.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: It was JD. Vance attacking me personally and saying it
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: was quote complete idiocy to suggest there was a distinction
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: between unfreezing assets and giving Iron money. I wonder if
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: he still believes that or that me suggesting that some
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: sort of diplomatic deal could force Iron to spend money
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: on humanitarian supplies like JD. Vance is now claiming this
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: deal does. But it wasn't just JD being a hypocritical
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: piece of shit. It was a bunch of them. Let's
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: roll a clip here.
• 13:40
  Speaker 7: Iran was a country that was in deep trouble. They
• 13:44
  Speaker 7: were doing badly, and then we took the sanctions off,
• 13:48
  Speaker 7: and we should have never taken the sanctions off before
• 13:50
  Speaker 7: we finished a deal. We took the sanctions off before
• 13:54
  Speaker 7: you know why. They're great negotiators. They said, we will
• 13:56
  Speaker 7: not negotiate unless you take the sanctions off. And our guy,
• 14:00
  Speaker 7: if you want to check Iran, the way to do
• 14:02
  Speaker 7: it is to one and withdraw their oil money, which
• 14:05
  Speaker 7: of course show.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Biden's been bad about it.
• 14:07
  Speaker 8: I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before
• 14:10
  Speaker 8: I know what was going to happen in regards to this.
• 14:12
  Speaker 8: If it goes through, Iran will immediately use the money
• 14:16
  Speaker 8: that it's receiving and sanctions relief to begin to build
• 14:18
  Speaker 8: up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant
• 14:22
  Speaker 8: military power in the region outside of the United States,
• 14:24
  Speaker 8: and it will raise the price of US operating.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: In the region.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Consider yourself recorded for history, Marco. It's just you know
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a little later than you thought.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: It's just at the time that the JCPO happened, they
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: were making these bad faith arguments right that the unfrozen
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: assets that Arama was getting under the JCPO. Again, after
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: they did far more significant things on nuclear commitments was
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: like writing a check to the audience, right, and now
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: they're making the exact same arguments, like they don't even
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, because you know, they have no shame. There's
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: a kind of you know, bottomless well for them in
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: terms of their capacity for hypocrisy. I think that the
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: important point here, though, is that the failure, right, there's
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: two failures that deserve to truly be highlighted here because
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not so much just a failure of diplomacy,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: it's the failure of the war. Right, This is the point,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Like going to war left us in a much worse
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: place than using diplomacy did. This is the main lesson
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: that Americans, Democrats, and hopefully some Republicans will take from this.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: The reason these terms are shitty is not just because
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: they're shitty negotiators. It's because they had a shittier hand
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: because they went to war. In all the decades of
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: hearing that you know, the way you show you're tough
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: and the way to solve problems is to bomb countries,
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: and to go to war was just proven like categorically wrong.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: And I think the other thing that deserves to be
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: called out here is the absolute like bad faith characterizations
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: of diplomacy in the past, because they spent years discrediting
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: a nuclear deal that they now would give anything to
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: get exactly like, and there has to be some accountability
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: for this, and our politics and our media is so
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: bad at holding you. Why is anybody gonna ask Lindsay
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Graham his opinion on anything ever again? Dude, I lost
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: mine Rubio for that matter, or Rube right.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, I saw Lindsay Graham on Face the Nation
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: this Sunday and he was saying, oh, well, if this
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: deal doesn't work out, we're going to go back to war,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: and then Trump's going to take control of the straight
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: then we're gonna take twenty percent of all the revenue
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: for the oil that goes through. And it's like, why
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: are you booking this fucking moron on your show? Exactly
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: how many wars does he have to be wrong about?
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: He's wrong about a rock, he was wrong about a run.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: He's a barnacle who just like lives on Trump's ass
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: And like, we don't need to hear from this man.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I don't ever need to hear from Mark Dubowitz or
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: anyone at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy think tank,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Like no one has been as thoroughly discredited that these
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: stupid warmonger, bloodthirsty neo con hacks. Run them out of Washington.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Stop quoting them in your articles, David Sanger, New York Times, Like,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: all of you, like, lose their phone numbers, please. They
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: are fucking clowns.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just pissing on your leg, you know. And
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sorry that you gave me an image
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: that I will always have of Lindsay Graham being a
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: barnacle in Donald Trump's ass. But it's absolutely correct. And
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: because this is the point that this connects to what
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I was saying about the war and the accountability. You
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: are treated as serious in Washington if you went to
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: bomb countries, right, So, like if you're a super progressive,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: if you're like a leftist in Congress, you would never
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: get booked on a Sunday show because it's like, you know,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: that person doesn't that's not a serious foreign policy person, right.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: Lindsay Graham is far less serious. This is a man
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: who just advocates for war and then can turn on
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: a dime if Donald Trump like instructs him to do so.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: He's not like the FDD crowd and all the people
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that sold this war, posing essentially as like impartial experts,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: when they were clearly just fucking pushing an agenda to
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: do this. And now we did that the that they
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: wanted and it proved out to be catastrophically wrong. So
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: there's no reason that you need to like treat these
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: people's experts just because they want to fight wars. And
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I've said this a couple of times before, Timmy, but
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: like it was harder to get the JCPOA through Congress
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: than it was to go to war in I Rock
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: than it was for Donald Trump to go to war
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: in Iran. That's fucked up, and that's what needs to
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: change in American politics and media and farm policy.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: In twenty fifteen, the Congress passed a special law just
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: to make it harder to do a diplomatic deal with
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: to run. But they've completely just like given up their
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: role in declaring war or you know, authorizing war. It's insane. Well,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the Peace Stocks, e Ben, because the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: negotiations between Iran and the US took place in Bergenstocks.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: What'slin over the weekend. You see photos of this resort.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: They were at by the way, look pretty look pretty
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: nice music. Yeah, things got out to a rocky start.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: On Saturday, the IRGC announced they were closing the straight
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: up of Horn Moves again because of Israeli attacks on
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Hesbola and Lebanon. I don't think they actually did it,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: but traffic is nowhere near where it was before the war.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: So Trump took that announcement by the IRGC very well,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: telling Fox News, quote, you close it and you won't
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: have a country. You won't even make it back to
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: your fucking country end quote. So it's always good to
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: threaten to kill the negotiators right before you have all
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: a chat. Despite all of that, the talks finally happened. Unfortunately,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: they were led by Jadie Vance, who's a clown and
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the kind of like the bumbling idiot traveling duo of
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner. The two sides claim to
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: have agreed to the following the establishment of a high
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: level committee to provide political oversight on the talks, and
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: then there's a working group of like actually qualified people
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: that will do most of the work and the negotiations.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: They agreed on a roadmap to get the deal done
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: in sixty days communications line to avoid incidents in the
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Strait Ohrmus and then a quote deconfliction cell to ensure
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: as per the MoU End quote. So some they're trying
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: to find some sort of way to prevent fighting from
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Hesbla and Israel from flaring up into a rupture that
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: sort of blows up the whole thing. But there's also
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: major disagreements or at least competing claims from the two sides.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: So JD. Vans and Trump are saying that Iran agreed
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: to let IAEA inspectors back into Iran, but Iran says
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: they have no plans to let inspectors back into sites
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: bombed by the US and Israel. Remember before the Twelve
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Day War, the IAEI had access to those sites and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: then they got kicked out because the war started. Vans
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: also tried to claim that unfrozen Iranian assets would only
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: be used to buy American crops. As I discussed earlier,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: Aron is saying no, we can spend that money on
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: whatever we want. It's in the terms of the deal.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Trump claims the Strait is fully open it's moving at
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: record volumes. The reality is like a couple dozen ships
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: a day are going through that is not even close
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: to the pre war levels, and they're still naval mind
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: to contend with. And then Trump says Iran will never
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: charge a toll on ships in the Strait, but Iran
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: has already set up this new company to eventually charge
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: insurance for ships passing through the strait. Then I saw
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: this announcement today from the Iranians and Oman where they
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: announced their discussing costs for the services they provide. So
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: again it just sounds like they're setting up a toll there.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Both sides sounded an optimistic note on the way out.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Iran's foreign ministers said, quote Pakistani and Katari mediation has
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: delivered major progress to end the Lebanon War. And then
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: this is a clip from JD Vance's couple of press aveils.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Let's watch yesterday.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: It was a very very good day.
• 21:10
  Speaker 9: We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly
• 21:13
  Speaker 9: what we wanted to do.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: The final deal is the house. We set the foundation.
• 21:17
  Speaker 10: We haven't built the house, but we've laid a successful
• 21:20
  Speaker 10: foundation to get to a.
• 21:22
  Speaker 9: Good place for the American people.
• 21:23
  Speaker 10: What we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys
• 21:27
  Speaker 10: engage in what US millennials might call trash talk, you
• 21:30
  Speaker 10: can't expect the President of the United States not to
• 21:32
  Speaker 10: respond and not to correct the record. This region has
• 21:35
  Speaker 10: been a basket case for a very long time. I've
• 21:38
  Speaker 10: spent a lot of time dealing with the Iranians over
• 21:40
  Speaker 10: the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely confusing
• 21:43
  Speaker 10: as negotiators.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, I love like a plotting, pedantic metaphor. I followed
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: by him defining with trash talk kiss by sort of
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: like insulting the other party. But I don't know, Ben,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: consider me skeptical these guys are getting a nuclear deal done.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I bet they kind of, you know, punt this thing,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: you know, keep extending talks and keep shipping go. But
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: what do you think?
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's the thing, because like, Iran knows
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: a few things right. So the first is I mean
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: a few months ago, you know, we made this comparison.
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: But in the Suez Crisis, right when England and France
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: and Israel went to war to stop Egypt from nationalizing
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: the Suez guess what ended up happening on the back
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: end of that. Egypt kept tolling the Suez. They're still
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: doing it today. Iran has shown that they can extract
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: revenue from the Strait of Hormuz, so they know that
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: they can do that even if they don't get a
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: nuclear deal. Right, So, even if they don't get a
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: nuclear deal, they can try to find some money by
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: saying like there's some new insurance premium you have to pay,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: and you have to pay to both Iran and Amans.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: So it feels like it's, you know, not just the Iranians.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: And so again they don't necessarily need some additional sanctions
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: relief to find more revenue absent to nuclear deal. The
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: second thing they know is how likely is it that,
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: given how calamitous and politically catastrophic this was for Trump,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: how likely is it that no matter what Lindsay Graham says,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: that Trump's going to go back to war with Iran
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: in sixty days sight for midterm elections or he didn't
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: get a nuclear deal. Yeah, so I think it's quite possible,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: if not likely, that around like pockets to ten billion.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe they get that twenty four billion, Maybe they get
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: some of the three hundred billion dollars investment fund that's
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: going in there, which who knows, maybe Jared and Witcoff
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: or getting in on the game for Iranian infrastructure. I
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: don't know, just ask him questions here.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: When he's arousing.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: But they can still, yeah, they can still get tons
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: of money and control the straight of hor moves without
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: making any nuclear concessions. And they also know the JD Vance.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: You know, they don't like it when Trump threatens to
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: destroy their country because who would. And they don't like
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: when he threatens to kill the negotiators because in the
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: past they have bombed and killed people that were in
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: the Ranian political system during negotiations. But they also know
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: that JD Vance just wants to get through the next
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: Fox he wants, you know.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: He wants to get back on his plane and goes home.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: He wants to stop Tucker Carlson for running for president
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: in his lane next time around. And so if JD
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Vance needs to do a Fox hit and talk about
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: how they're only buying American crops, like and the text
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: says what it does, like all right, JD Like, go
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: lie and gaslight your own people, because the Runians are
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: gonna have that money anyway. So the Rhynings are again
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: to use a Trump terminology. They're they're holding like all
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: the fucking cards, and jd Vance is just like spinning
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: around in circles to be the one who rebuilds his
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: cred with like Megan Kelley and Tucker Carlson.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I just like Jade Vance was talking about this
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: stupid like forcing them to buy American wheat and corn deal,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: like it was some brilliant idea from from Jared Kushner
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: of all people. But you're right. I mean, like I
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: just saw the delegations and it's like on our side,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: it's these bumbling idiots who just want to make money
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: and get back to their talks with the Russian oligarchs
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: and not solve the war in Ukraine. And on their side,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: it's like incredibly experienced diplomats and nuclear experts who have
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: literally nothing else and nothing better to do with their lives,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and they will grind them down into a pulp if
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: that's what it takes.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the same. It's the same people of US. A Rochi,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: the Fret minister are like negotiated for years with US
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: the last nuclear deal like these and they'll be that
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: guess what They'll also either after Trump. They know that
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Trump's gone in like two years and was Jared like remember,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: like Scott Bessen turned out to be a soybean farmer.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: You really think that Jared Kushner wakes up every day
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: worried about like selling wheat to somebody. No, Jared Kushner
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: is probably more interested in getting again the piece of
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: the action of the three hundred billion dollar golf fund
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: that's going into ring and infrastructure.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: He's focused on getting deals for the Saudis or wherever
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: his pain as checks pots of the world is brought
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• 28:27
  Speaker 1: unresolved problem in the war remains Lebanon ben So On Friday,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: for Israeli soldiers were killed when Hesbola hit an IDF tank.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Israel retaliated, killing at least forty seven people. But Israeli
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister vibnet Yah, who continues to insist that Israel
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: will not withdraw from the territory it is currently occupying
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: in southern Lebanon and said quote, our fighters in southern
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Lebanon have full freedom of action to thwart any director
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: emerging threat to them or to the residents of the
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: north end quote and that they will stay in Lebanon
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: for as long as is necessary. Now, for what it's worth,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: CNN's reported that Israel is considering like symbolic limited withdrawals
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: from parts of the country. I assume to make Trump happy.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: But Netan Yahoo is getting hammered by his political opponents
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: for this deal, especially what's happening in Lebanon, for example,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: and if tally, Bennett said, net Yah, who is not
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: telling the truth about the idea's freedom of action in
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: southern Lebanon and that quote the truth is our boy's
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: hands are tied, and that quote the enemy understands the
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: limitations and exploits him for rapid re establishment that will
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: lead to harm to the lives of our soldiers. In
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: other words, he's blamed. He's saying this deal is going
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: to get Idea of soldiers killed. Trump seemed oddly surprised
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: by all the pushback in Israel. Ben Here's a quick
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: clip of him getting asked about Lebanon in the Oval
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Office on Monday.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: He Israel Prime.
• 29:39
  Speaker 11: Minister Venjamin n Yah, who said his forces are not
• 29:41
  Speaker 11: leaving Lebanon.
• 29:42
  Speaker 12: That is a stick in won to detail that to you.
• 29:45
  Speaker 7: He said it publicly in is like no, look, K, well,
• 29:48
  Speaker 7: what would you do to make sure they get.
• 29:50
  Speaker 12: Well, I'm not going to tell you what I'm gonna do,
• 29:51
  Speaker 12: but it gets solved.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: I'm a problem solve or I get problems solved real fish,
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: including with Phoebe.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: It's also been interesting to watch kind of like the
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: increasingly aggressive pushback from the White House on net Yahoo
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: and on Israel. So, for example, here's some comments from
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: JD Vance to kind of make the point that.
• 30:06
  Speaker 13: You've seen people in their system, Benavier and smoke Trich
• 30:09
  Speaker 13: who've attacks the deal, and I guess my response to
• 30:11
  Speaker 13: them would be, what is your exact proposal? And you know,
• 30:16
  Speaker 13: you're a country of nine million people. You can't just
• 30:20
  Speaker 13: kill your way out of solving every single national security
• 30:24
  Speaker 13: problem that you have.
• 30:25
  Speaker 9: Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in
• 30:28
  Speaker 9: the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of
• 30:33
  Speaker 9: Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to
• 30:35
  Speaker 9: be the head of state of the world superpower. If
• 30:38
  Speaker 9: I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I
• 30:41
  Speaker 9: might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I
• 30:45
  Speaker 9: have anywhere left in the entire world.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Just can only imagine if Barack Obama said that what
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: APAC would be saying. We also heard that Trump suggested
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: that Israel shola At get out of Lebanon and let
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the Syrians take care of Hezbola. That is an excellent
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: recipe for a brutal reasal war, since the Syrians hate
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: has a beloved because they helped as Od massacre the
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: opposition in the Syrians Civil War. Luckily, President Amadal Shara
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: said no thanks to that crazy idea. But Ben, look again,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm very concerned that this is going to be
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: the spoiler that blows up the peace talks. I hope
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, but it sure seems like that Yahoo has
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong political incentive to blow up this DL
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: and just kind of make these attacks on him go
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: away in advance of the election. Yeah.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: No, Nettao needs a war without a war. There's no
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: justification for why he should be prime minister, be it
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: in Iran or Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: or what have you. Now, there's so much that is
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: kind of fucked up about this. Like so first of all,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: like are we not supposed to notice that Israel is
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: occupying Southern Lebanon. You know, what is the legal basis
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: in which they're just like claiming a huge chunk of
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Lebanese territory and hanging out. And also like it's really like,
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: you know, because because sometimes the way people talk about this,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: it acts like, well, now, like you know, he's got
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: a political problem because he needs to continue the war
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: in Lebanon. Like, consider how profoundly messed up it is
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: that what has gone wrong in Israeli politics, That it's
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: a problem if you're not like fighting a war and
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: bombing people in Lebanon, like what has gone wrong in
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: our politics? That it's seen as logical that because four
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Israeli soldiers were killed who are in Lebanon, that they
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: kill forty seven civilians in response, Like the whole world
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: sees this and how dark it is, and in the
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: degree of frustration in America because they Americans know that
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: NN now talk Trump into this is catching up to
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: frankly where the whole world is, which is why on
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Earth are we justifying and enabling and facilitating and arming
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: and Israeli government to just kind of fight a forever
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: war in Lebanon because it's good for Bebe's politics. And
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: then you know, Taly Bennet, one of his chief opponents, like,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: is just outflanking him to the right, and that's just how.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is dark, it is not normal. We should
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: call it out. It's demonstrating that the problem in Israeli
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: politics is not just bebing in now though he's a
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: big part of it, you know, so that's messed up.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: Jd Vance is like, you know, pretty brutish comments here
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: are indicative of where the politics are going in the
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Republican Party, you know where the politics are in the
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party. What constituency do people think exists for enabling this?
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: And the last thing I'd say about the deal itself,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: we just talked about Iran's disincentives for making actual nuclear concessions.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: This is going to be a giant one because Iran's
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: going to be able to say, if this is still
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: going on, if Israel stock you buying some Lebanon, well
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: wait a second, you guys didn't implement your side of
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: the deal. Why should we like get rid of our
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: enrichment of nuclear materials when you know Israel still in
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: southern Lebanon, so it lets run off the hook. Ironically,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: if Israel is violent, the terms of the deal because
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: it gives in Iran. The Iranian's a basis for tolling
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: the straight of hor Moves and not making nuclear concessions
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: because they can say, well, nobody's really keeping the terms
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: of this thing.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a total mess. I don't have confidence
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: in any of these talk sticking or the Israelis staying
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: on sides and souther lemanon. But I don't know. I
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: guess all we could do is knock on Wood and
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Holpe because another closure, a prolonged closure the strait of
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Hoho Moves would lead to catastrophic economic consequences and just
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: impact people thousands of miles away who might starve to death.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: And that's just the worst case scenario. Ben. Let's turn
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: to the UK where you are currently. I think you're
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: in London, right, Yes, so our friends.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: I'm in London by the way. Events tonight Wednesday in
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: London at Intelligence Square. If people when it comes seem nice.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, come see Ben Brink here Starmy.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: He's got with Coco conna is also conn is interviewing us.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: It'll be actually fun and funny. That's great. I didn't
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: need it like that. I just mean like she's absolutely, no.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: It's true. She's funnier than me.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: She's funnier than your average book moderator, is what I'm
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: getting at saying that as having been one, usually they're
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: not as like efforts in as Coco, so our bodies
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: across the pond. We're about to have their seventh prime
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: minister in ten years. On Monday, Prime Minister Cures Army
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: announced and he's going to resign. Here's a bit of
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: his speech. I'd say number ten Downing Street.
• 35:17
  Speaker 14: I was told time and time again that my party
• 35:22
  Speaker 14: was finished, that we were consigned to history, that the
• 35:27
  Speaker 14: majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority,
• 35:33
  Speaker 14: was impossible. But we proved those people wrong. The question
• 35:39
  Speaker 14: my party is asking now is whether I am best
• 35:43
  Speaker 14: placed to lead us into the next general election. I
• 35:49
  Speaker 14: have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question.
• 35:56
  Speaker 14: Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country
• 36:00
  Speaker 14: I love first. That is why I will resign as
• 36:05
  Speaker 14: leader of the Labor Party. I shall spend more time
• 36:08
  Speaker 14: on the most important job, being the best husband I
• 36:12
  Speaker 14: can to my fantastic wife, Vick, and being the best
• 36:16
  Speaker 14: dad I can to my beautiful children, who are my
• 36:20
  Speaker 14: pride and my joy.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: So Starmer's resignation came after his political rival Andy Burnham
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: decisively won his race for Parliament. This was that make
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: or feel by election that we talked about previously. Burnham
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: got fifty five percent of the vote while his opponent
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: from the right wing Reform UK Party only got thirty
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: three percent or thirty five percent, it's about twenty point victory.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: That huge margin convinced Labor MPs that Burnham was a
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: better option to lead them into the next election. Starmer
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: initially promised to fight for his job, but that all
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: changed after even members of his own cabinet said it
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: was time to go. So what happened and what comes next?
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: On what happened front, analysts seemed to agree on a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: few reasons why Starmer only made it through two years
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: of a five year term after leading Labor to this
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: landslide of victory, a lynd slide victory back in twenty
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: twenty four. So there were a couple of smaller things.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: There were big controversies and scandals like taking free gifts,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: and then there was the far bigger scandal of naming
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein's buddy Peter and Mandelson to be ambassadored to
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: the UK. There were some dumb policy decisions and then
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: backtracking on some policy decisions that made him look weak
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: and indecisive. But the big things you hear is that
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Starmar just never adequately laid out a vision for the
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: job or a plan for what he wanted to do.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: And then even when he was successful, he was bad
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: at communicating it. Not just lacking in charisma, but I
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: think unable to tell a bigger story about his vision
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: and Labor leadership. And frankly, ben I think that Farewell
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: speech not to be unfair to the guy, but it
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: was kind of an example of the kind of dry,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: like laundry list stuff we'd hear from him pretty often.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: So in terms of what happens next, the Labor Party
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: will have a leadership process, but it seems like former
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Greater Manchester may or Andy Burnham will almost certainly win
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: it and become the next prime minister. Burnham's one big
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: potential rival was a guy named west Reeting. West Reading
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: had quit the Starmer cabinet, but he's already bowed out
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: and endorsed Andy Burnham. Starmer says he wants the process
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: wrapped up by July sixteenth, but things could get done faster.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Of course, Donald Trump had to humilid Starmar on his
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: way out the door by confirming Starmer's resignation before he
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: had had a chance to do it himself, which is
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: just wonderful move. Wonderful guy. So Ben, again, you're in
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: the UK, we speak class act thoughts on the Starmer
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: legacy in Burnham's future and what's the reaction been like
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: there with the people you've talked to.
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was here doing British media all day, talking
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: obviously to people who follow politics closely to and I
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: mean it's kind of anticlimactic. You know, nobody was surprised
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: by the time this happened. I think as soon as
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Andy Burnham won and one with.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: That result, it was clear.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: If people say, like, well, what's one by election say
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: about his ability to win a general election, I think
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: the basic analysis was like, look, this guy's from Manchester,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: Northern England. This is the kind of part of the
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: country where Labor's been losing a lot of support to
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: reform in other parties, and so not only does he
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: win that election decisively, but he also kind of comes
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: from the region that they need to kind of win back,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: and so once he won with that margin, it was
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: pretty clear he was going to have the support. It
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: was also the case that you know, all the reporting
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: here was that he'd already lined up essentially a majority
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: of Labor MPs, So it was kind of game over
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: for Starmer. Look, I think if you look at the legacy,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I guess on the positive side, you know, because you
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: kind of feel sympathy for someone who wanted general election
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: and then yeah, it kind of has to resign early.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: You know, the positive legacy he's he won, like he
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: kind of positioned Labor to be in a place to
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: win a general election and return to power. That matters
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: a lot, you know. And then you know, there's a
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: bunch of smaller things if people can point to, you know,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: changes that he made in this or that policy, but
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: that kind of leads to the negative. Is you pointed
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: out like what was the big program? What was the
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: big vision? You know, like what was like both the
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: story he was telling about where Britain was going and
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: also like what are the kind of big agenda items
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: like what was his vision for the NHS the National
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Health Service or for restoring growth in the UK or
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: kind of you know, rebuilding a relationship with Europe after Brexit,
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Like he was playing these kind of small ball items
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: and policy, and then his communications was you know, always
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: kind of dry and a bit defensive, and it just
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: like you just didn't ever have the sense that he
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: kind of had the reins here and he was always
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: kind of reactive and he was always kind of on defense.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: And meanwhile, you've got like Nigel Farage, like not a
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: person has a problem communicating like you know, vaulting up.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: And I think people just ultimately decided like it's just
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: too dangerous. Nobody kind of felt that Starmer was the
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: best choice to kind of lead Labor through the next
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: couple of years and then into general election against like
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: a you know, huge threat to British democracy and reform.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: And so there's unknown about like what any I mean,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: the second thing we should say you, Tommy, is that
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: it's not like it's particularly clear what any Burnham's vision
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: is not at all. He's yeah, he's to Starmer's left.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: He's a more charismatic politician and so that you know,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: that's enough for some people, right, Like he's just a
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: better politician, and you know, for the progressives, like it
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: seems like he'll be a little bit more where they are.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: I we should add on the progressive side, a lot
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: of frustration with starmers, you know, you know, pretty much
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: aligned with Israel. Like he didn't really break support on
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: Israel's policy in Gaza. He's kind of prosecuted these people
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: for like free speech crimes just because they like speak
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: up in defensive Palestine. So you know, that didn't help
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: him on the left either. So look, I think you
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: can feel bad for the guy and you can kind
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: of say, like, you know what, he seemed like he
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: did his best and he got labor back in power,
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: but you know, not exactly a big surpriser.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, in some ways you could argue that, like the
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: left in the Labor Party got a lot of what
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: they wanted, things like, you know, good things on workers' rights,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: stuff for trade union, stuff for renters, a higher minimum wage,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: some X hikes. You I think you nationalized the trains.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: But you're right, like, yeah, they moved slowly on Israel
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: at best. But ultimately, the polling it wasn't just that
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: the polling showed that voters wanted to go I mean
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: there are six and ten Britons told you gov that
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: they thought it was the right thing for him to quit.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: But also there was a poll recently that found that
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Labor led by Kure Starmer would be that Reform would
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: be eight points ahead of Labor in the election, but
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: with Andy Burnham leading Labor, Reform would only be one
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: point ahead. So there was some polling that suggested Labor
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: would be better positioned with Andy Burnham in charge. And
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: then just like results or results, you know, like we
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: can look at all the polls you want, but when
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: you're Andy Burnham and you run and you kick the
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: shit out of the reform candidate and the constituency like
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: the one you described, I mean, that's going to wake
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of people up. And just to add sort
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: of like the pylon, you know, there's also people blame
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Keure Starmer for like listening to Morgan McSweeney, his advisor,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: too much, who was primarily focused on with crushing the
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: kind of Corbinice to wing the party. I think that
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: people thought he seemed too dour and gloomy. That I
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: saw a great analysis piece where one MP described what
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: happened to Starmer as the fate of the third Plumber.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: So you have a leak in your house, your toilet
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: is broken. The first plumber shows up, it doesn't work.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: You're like, oh that sucks. The second one comes then
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: it doesn't work. The third one can't get it done,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: and you want to kill that guy. That was kind
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: of the metaphorous person used. You've also heart's an analysts
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: say like, I don't know, man, maybe the UK is
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: now ungovernable as they're going from a two party system
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: to a five maybe six party system. The biggest problem
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Andy Burnham is going to have is going to be
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: growth they've kind of had, you know, they've been stuck
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: in the mud. The wheels have been spinning on economic growth.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: They have not really reckoned with Brexit. I think we
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: just hit the ten year anniversary of Brexit and they
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: just still haven't figured that shit out. And then you
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: have a totally unreliable Donald Trump reminding the world why
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: we're no longer a good ally as the UK is
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: at a Brexit and I think you to Rory Stewart,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: who I know you talk to today, is always talking
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: about how you know, if you're looking forward for the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: UK economically, like they have no domestic AI industry, so
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: what happens if the US just cuts off their access
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: to all the anthropic models like we just did the
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: other day. So there's a lot of X factors out there,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of challenges ahead.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you brought up the Brexit thing because
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: today is actually the tenth anniversary of Brexit, and I
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: think the common thread here is that no British politician
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: has been able to articulate kind of what this country's
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: future is after Brexit. I mean, the Right could only
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: articulate getting to Brexit, but not kind of what came next.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: A lot of the economic problems are because of Brexit,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: like they lost the market access that came with the EU.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: They're kind of a they're an island, quite literally. And
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: I think so for Andy Burnham, Like the advice i'd
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: give is number one, Yes, you have these problems, like
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: there's not a lot of money and it's hard to
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: find growth. But if you can give a vision, like
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: a big vision about where the horizon is, like what
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: we're trying to get to, if you can instead of
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: doing like a million little things, like two or three
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: bigger things that may not fix every problem, but give
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: people a sense of progress in their lives if you
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: do more. You know, Starmer was very tentative about kind
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: of rebuilding relationship with Europe, and you know, maybe you're
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: not gonna go all the way back and eat right away,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: but like you know, begin to negotiate more agreements to
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: get closer to Europe. That kind of indicates, hey, like
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: we kind of overreached on the Brexit thing. And the
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: last thing I say, Tommy is stand up to Trump's
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Like if I'm Mandy Burnham, I'm doing the Georgia Maloney thing,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: I'm picking fights with Trump because you know what, Trump's
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: going to be an asshole anyway. Here, Starmer was really
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: nice to him. He gave him like the World carriage
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: ride when he came to town. Like, I actually think
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Brits need a little confidence here. You know, they need
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: a little like Hugh Grant and love. Actually you know,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: like like they they they I mean maybe not the
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: best analogy there, but but you know what I mean, Like,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: there's there's a lack of confidence here right and they
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: want if you get strong visionary leadership and storytelling about
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: what this country is and where it's going. I say
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: this country because I'm sitting here. I think would maybe
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: buy you a little time with voters.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: I think just like politics is pretty basic and it's
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: like strong, weak, tough, kind of soft. And I think,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Crestarmer just never looked. He looks weak in
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: the face of Trump, And I think you got to
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: figure out a way to fight back and do it
• 46:09
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• 46:11
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• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Let's switch gears, turn to Africa and talk about the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: relatively new relationship between Israel and a place called Somaliland.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: So for contact. Somaliland is this breakaway self declared state
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: in the Horn of Africa. It declared independence from the
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: rest of Somalia in nineteen ninety one after a long
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: and brutal civil war. Now, if you look at a map,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: you'll see Somalia is kind of shaped like the head
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: of an arrow pointing northeast on the map. The territory
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: running along the Indian Ocean is Somalia, and there's a
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: little chunk at the top along the Gulf of Aiden
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: that neighbors Djibouti that is Somaliland. Somaliland used to be
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: a British colony, but it gained independence in nineteen sixty
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: and united with Somalia. But now they want to basically
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: undo that decision and become an independent state. But one
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: of their challenges been that no other countries would recognize
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: them until recently. In December twenty twenty five, Israeli Prime
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: Minister being at in Yahoo announced that Israel and Somaliland
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: had established diplomatic relations. In March of this year, Bloomberg
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: reported that Israel was trying to build a military base
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: in Somaliland, and then more recently there have been reports
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: that Israel had already deployed a small number of troops
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: to Somaliland. Israel Katzi, Israeli defense minister, said the other
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: day that the two countries had been secretly coordinating four years.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: So listeners might be wondering why why would Israel, of
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: all countries support a breakaway state seeking independence. That seems
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: like a bad precedent for them with the Palestinian authority
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: in Gaza, etc. Right the primary reason is the Huthi rebels.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: So we've talked about the Houthis a bunch. The Huthis
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: are the Iranian backed political and military organization and Yemen
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: that has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: the United States. The Huthis have fired missiles at ships
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: in the Red Sea and protests of the war in Gaza.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: They've also fired lots of missiles at Israel itself, and
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: so a permanent base in Somaliland would give Israel surveillance
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: and military capabilities that are much closer to Yemen itself.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: It would let them track hoothy movements and missile launches
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: and whatever else the Houthis and the Iranians are doing
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: in the Gulf of Aden. There's also been reports of
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: a much darker rationale, which is that Somaliland could be
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: a destination for people pushed out of Gaza as part
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: of an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign. The other countries named
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: in the reporting, I think it was an ap story
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: about this was Sudan and Somalia. So a bunch of
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: very safe places with lots of economic opportunity for the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Gazans who would be displaced here. For what it's worth,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: there are reasonable arguments on the merits for why Somali
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Land should be its own state. They've been peacefully self
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: governing for over thirty years, they've had elections, they have
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: a currency, they've executed peaceful transfers of power. Meanwhile, Somalia
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: is a disaster. It's a bastion for terrorist groups like
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: al Shabab. But a big argument against recognition is that
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: the African Union does not recognize Somali land, nor do
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: any other African countries, because they don't want to see
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: a wave of breakaway independence movements like that. So the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Trump administration was talking about this possible recognition during the transition.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: I think that BEN was more about hedging their bets
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: in Djibouti, which is the home to the only permanent
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: US milibertary base in Africa, in several thousand US personnel
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: and a whole bunch of drones. But jib the problem
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: in Jibouti is they basically sell base access to any
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: country that can afford it. So you've got this cluster
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: of bases packed into a tiny area, which means the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: US base is two miles from the Chinese base literally.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: And I think the Pentagon is probably worried about a
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Nizier situation where like a coup or a political change
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: means suddenly you're kicked out of the country and have
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: no access. So, Ben, sorry for the long wind up there,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: but what do you think the logic of this move
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: is for Israel? Their real motivation, like why they're going
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: to a public with it now, and what are some
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: of the downside risks?
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: Do you think, Well, look, it's pretty obvious that Israel's
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: doing this for strategic reasons. I mean, do we really
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: think that in Israeli foreign policy they looked at the
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: entire world and that they decided that there's kind of
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: a moral cause them to recognize some island. It is
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: clearly strategically placed, as you said, like near the houthis
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: which is a concern of Israels. It's a potential venue
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: for Israeli military intelligence operations, you know, not just against
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: the hoo Thies, but you know kind of in in
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: the Gulf region generally. And I just think that's a
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: shitty reason to go ahead, and you know, be the
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: first country to establish it with MAC relations like that.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: There's not like a you know, I'm sure the talking
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: points are about their self government, but does anybody truly
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: believe again that like that's what you know motivates now
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: to do this, right? And so that leads to the risk,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: because the risk is you're not only kind of destabilizing
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: you know, this region in some ways because the other
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: countries don't want it. But what are we now saying that,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: like any little breakaway province that that has like a
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: grievance and there are many, not just in Africa but
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: in other places, but like we can just talk about
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: Africa that essentially if they you know, offer their territory
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: to some power, be it Israel or somebody else for
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: a military base, like suddenly they can get diplomatic recognition.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: It's just another sign that we're in like an age
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: in which everything is just you know, transactional. There are
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: no rules, there's no processes. Institutions like the African Union,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: the United Nations kind of don't matter. It's an end
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: run around all that. And so I think that's your risk, right,
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: You're encouraging separatism, You're you're encouraging like the sale of
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: you know, sovereignty for military based purposes. And yes, you know,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: potentially maybe you're creating a venue for the ethnic cleansing
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: of Palestinians. So it doesn't you know, it doesn't smell right,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: even if you could find cause to have some sympathy
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: to Somaliland.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and even in sort of like the director of
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: Horn of Africa Region. I mean, I think Ethiopia came
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: closest to recognizing Somaliland, but then they backed away because
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: all their neighbors were not happy about it. But I
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: think they've cut a deal to get port access in Somaliland.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: The port is actually operated by the Amoradis weirdly, but
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: that pissed off the Egyptians, who have a dispute with
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Ethiopia over water rights and access because they're both dependent
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: on the Nile River and the Ethiopians. Trump ended that war, Yeah, right,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: that board he just had all gone out of course,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: So then Egypt cut a deal with the Somali. So yeah,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: it's just sort of like exacerbating regional tensions. I'm sure
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: this won't help. Interesting story though, and one will keep watching.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Speaking of which, another interesting election that we we covered
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: earlier this month was Colombia's election. There were the first
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: round results in May that set led to a runoff
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: with a progressive candidate, Yvonne Cepaeida and the right wing
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: candidate Abalardo Dala Espreya, also known as the Tiger So
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: that runoff ended this past weekend. The results are now
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: in so the Tiger, the right wing candidate, he narrowly won.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: The Guardian Reporter. He got twelve point ninety six million votes,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: which is about ninety or sorry, forty nine point sixty
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: six percent of the vote, compared to Sepaida's forty eight
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: point seven percent of the vote. It's worth noting that
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: the margin this time was even smaller than in the
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: first round. Dala Espreya will take over with a minority
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: in Congress and a very divided country. Just for Fundi's
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: been Here's Trump commenting on the election and of course
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: making it all about himself's watch.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: We know that you have I endorsed him. He was
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: intense place. I endorsed him, and he won the election. Yeah,
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: we know you have no different than this country.
• 55:22
  Speaker 15: I did.
• 55:22
  Speaker 12: He called me last night and he thanked me for
• 55:24
  Speaker 12: the endorsement. He won.
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: He won the election. It wasn't he wasn't anticipated to win,
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: but he won, and he won handily. It's just an honor.
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: He was just a good man. I'd watch him a
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: little bit speak and he always speak. You know, when
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: people like me, I like them.
• 55:41
  Speaker 12: It's very simple. It's a very simple formula, and I
• 55:44
  Speaker 12: liked him.
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: He said really nice things about me and the job
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: we've done in the United States, and very very powerful,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: and he won an election in Columbia that I don't
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: know some people were surprised.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: Simple formula. And then and again, just for fun, here's
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: de Laespriea's workout routine that he posted on Instagram. Not
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: to be a total bro, but if you're gonna call
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: yourself the Tiger and wear gloves in your home gym,
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: you got to be putting up more than like thirties
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: when you're doing bench ben It seems like we're going
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: to see a return to a militarized war on drugs,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: more coordination with the US, probably with Pete Hegseth, and
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: you know, just the US military bombing suspected drug traffickers.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: Will probably see the construction of megaprisons like El Salvador did.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: There's all these lawsuits against the press from the Tiger.
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: What do you think about these results and kind of
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: what it says about the future that US relationship with
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Columbia and sort of Colombia's role in the region.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: I don't feel good about it. I mean First of all,
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: we should say this is not about Trump. I mean,
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: it's not like they're voting for Trump. I think if
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: one of the things it is clear is in Colombia,
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: as we've seen in other countries, Ecuador, you know, Al
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: Salvador previously, there are real concerns about security. You know,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: there's a sense of insecurity, it's it's too violent, and
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: people are just kind of looking for something that feels
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: a little more secure in that manner. And also you
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: know there's a natural there's a left right swing that
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: tends to happen in Columbia. I think the things that
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: concerned me are like, first of all, the closest of
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: this result in Petro, the outgoing president kind of alleged
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: voter fraud.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: And here's the US and Israel of basically rigging.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: The US and Israel of election inference without any we
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: should say, without any evidence. Really, but look like I
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: don't think the Tiger like people should know this guy
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: is not just a normal like right wing politician, like
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: he is promised to build like mega prison in the jungle.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: You know, like like like we're looking at in El Salvador,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: who knows what maybe deporting people down there from you know,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: the United States, and we may be locking up people
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: on masks like they did in El Salvagor. That's not good.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: And this kind of validation of a right wing shift
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: in Latin America is alarming because we've already seen in
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: Bouquele a guy changed the constitution to keep himself in power,
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: you know, and who knows where you know, how many
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: of these right wing leaders end up being democratic in
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: the long run. And so again, I truly don't this
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: is not just kind of because I don't like Trump.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: I don't think this is because of Trump. I think
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: there's other factors behind this. But the reality is these
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: guys are going to be a block. They are going
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: to work with Trump. They are going to work with
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: either the US military or Eric Prince's security contracting type
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: outfits to do things that probably, you know, calling the question,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: let's just say that the human rights is probably not
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: gonna be top of mind for these guys. I think
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: another election. This makes the Brazil election, which is later
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: this year, that much more important because if Lula, the
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: incumbent president, loses and the right wing takes over in
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Brazil too, man, it's gonna be lonely down there for
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: center lefts and progressive and socialist politicians. So you know,
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: it bears watching. But I don't feel great about.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: The results Brazil's elections coming up in October. Right now,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: we got in Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala with left
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: wing governments in the reach and the rest are shifting
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: to the right. Yeah, the Tiger seems like a charming guy.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: On a political talk show, he told a female journalist
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: to look at a picture of him in sweatpants to
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: understand why so many women are voting for him. So
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: that's cool. But yeah, wonderful, wonderful folks that Trump is endorsing. Finally, Ben,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: I am fully addicted to watching the World Cup. Out
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: of the England game is on. I think probably as
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: we speak, it might right now by now.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're playing right now, they're.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Bay screaming in the streets. I'm already sad about it,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: ending I'd love to talk about it with you for
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: a minute. First of all, the US team is awesome.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: The Paraguay game was incredible. Got to go to that,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the best experience ever. And then we looked awesome in
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: the first half against Australia. We're not going to talk
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: about the second half because you know, whatever we won.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Then there's like the underdog stories. Cape Verde, Cabo Verde. Yes,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: that's been incredible. It's a tiny island nation. It's like
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty miles off the western coast of Africa.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: It's like half a million people, one of the smallest
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: countries to compete in the World Cup. They battled Spain
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: to a draw. Spain is supposed to be one of
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: the best teams in the entire tournament. Then they battled
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Ruguay to a draw this past Sunday. Check out this
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: BBC clip. These guys went live right as cape Verde
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: scored their first goal. To check those out.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: What's your prayers? Out of the way that Caveantin has
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: been playing so far?
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 11: I personally think so far Cabo Verde has been playing great.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 11: He's been matching Uru. Weis pressure.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Of next Sace history.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: We are going to the next place.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: I love that so much. I love those forty year
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: old goalie who shut out Spain and then went from
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: fifty zero to fifteen million Instagram followers. Yeah, there was
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: a player who got recruited via LinkedIn DM and he
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: like literally thought it was spam from the coach. I
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: don't know what else, do you what other sort of
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: like actual playing in game narratives are you enjoying before
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: we get to the kind of fan video stuff that's
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: so much fun.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: I do like the fact that there's this combination which
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: you won in every World Cup of like some of
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: the good teams are just playing extraordinary soccer football, right,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: I mean to watch Lionel Messi score five goals in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: the fast two games is unbelieved. Argentina and yep, yeah,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: and Bomba is playing like lights out. France looks great.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: The US obviously looks like it's knocking on the door
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: of not maybe the first tier, but like right there, right,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: And so there's just some excellent, like you know, soccer
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: being played, football being played. But then yeah, these underdog
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: stories to see Cape verdet to see you know, even
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: the Iranians, like the save that that Iranian goalie made.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: Did you see this, Tommy, Yeah, to kind of preserve
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: a draw that was like nuts. You know, I saw
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: the Congo, the Democratic pub of Congo draw Portugal, which
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: is you know, winning handily today in the same way crushing. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: the African soccer teams are overperforming. We'll see how Ghana
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: does against England today, and I just kind of love
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: all those underdog stories again. In addition to the US,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: another host Mexico looks pretty good too, so it's like
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: good to see, like the host countries in Canada gotta win,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: which they I don't think they had done before. So
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: so that's good. So it's you can't I love if
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: it's just the favorites overperforming, that's kind of boring. I
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: love this combination of like there's some good teams playing
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: really well, and then there's some people coming out of nowhere,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: and then there are these host countries doing well like that.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: It's a great mix of different storylines.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yezbi Kurosaw is another one who played Urguay to
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: a draw as love. I just like love like the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: scenes of the communities watching back home, like the Jordanians
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: are watching games in this like five thousand year old,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: like you know, kind of Roman era theater. It's a incredible.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw the Iranians the note
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: they left. They left a note in the locker room
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: in La they said, we came to Los Angeles with pride,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: competed with honor, and leave with dignity. Thank you Los
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Angeles for your hospitality, and thank you to every Iranian
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: who gave their heart, voice, and soul for a run
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: throughout these hundred and eighty minutes. May peace, respect, and
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: friendship prevail among all nations. Really nice note Also probably
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: not without political risk for them when they get home, right,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: you can imagine some iro GC goon being like, why
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: do you do that? What did that mean? Egypt got
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: its first win, their star player Mosala was just like
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: drinking in the streets with random people. I think up
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: in Canada, so that was awesome. But Ben, I think,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: what is you know captured all of our hearts? Especially
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: in the pot save the World slack are the videos
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: of fans losing their minds and I could watch this
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: all day, literally all thought, I will retweet anything you
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: send me. I'm a sucker for all of it. And
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: then it's like the culture is blending all across North America.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: Like you said, here's a little video compilation that we're
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: gonna watch, and then I'll just quickly tick through what
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: we saw and we can talk about it.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 15: And here they.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Are ready for today's game against the Rangers. Just moments
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: ago they march for a ball and chain throw out
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Little Havana to take over long Depot Park for today's
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: matt all right, So for those of you listening not watching,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: first of all, subscribe to Pots of the World on YouTube.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: But also we had a bunch of Norway fans rowing
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: in Times Square. They've been rowing everywhere. We had a
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: CBS report about the Tartan Army. Those are Scotland fans.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: They were taken over Miami. They went to a Marlins game,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: they marched through Little Havana. People in Boston were like
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: genuinely sad to see them go. Ben. I don't know
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: if you saw the open letter in the Boston Globe.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: I saw everything.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: The mayor was commenting on it, like people were like
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: sad that they were leaving. There was one dude who
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: just refused to leave. He said, no, I'm going to
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: stay here for longer. English fans were singing Sweet Carolina
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: at a rodeo in Texas. There's a Scottish guy in
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: a kilt playing the bagpipes while rollerblading in Miami. That
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: it's awesome. It was Becky fans riding to the stadium
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: in Houston on horseback in full garb, and then again
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: the Scotland fans singing and chanting on a flight from
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Boston to Miami. Ben is the World Cup the greatest
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: soft power tool in the history of diplomacy?
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's a soft power tool for everybody, right,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: for humanity. Every country is winning for humanity. I mean,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: let me just go through. I mean, I'm still a sucker,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: by the way for the Lawrence Kansas embrace of the
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: Algerian team.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: I think, Tommy that my Knicks New York sports fan
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: hard has been melted by the Boston Tartan Army romance.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: And I want to suggest that the Red Sox like
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: play a baseball game in Scotland. Absolutely, we have to
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: keep this, Yeah, we have to keep this going because
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: I'm so mad that there's not gonna be more content
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: of like Scot's like drinking with everybody in Boston and
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: like befriending guys with Airbnbs, and I know, you know,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: marching around with bagpipes.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: Right, if Bostonians go to Scotland, we're gonna bitch about
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the Wi Fi speeds and the plugs being different you
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. That's what.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, my own Modern Rice University. Like there was like
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: fifteen thousand Dutch fans or something like that in Orange,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: like marching off the campus, like I said, something totally
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: anchors like that. I got videos of like Congolese making
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: out with Mexicans like like it's just wonderful, like like
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: like I I can't say enough how much like you
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: just see the best in every country in the way
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: in which they root or the way in which they
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: connect across cultures in the host nations. It's it's this,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I have nothing bad to say about anybody, which is like,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: you know, like the way you would like the world
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: to be.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Apparently, one of the commentators on the England Ghana
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: broadcast said, as we know the English historically struggle in Massachusetts.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: Great line. That's a great line from a clever dude. Yeah.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: I love every minute of this. I want it to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: never end. I'm going to watch all the games. Uh
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: and maybe you know as when which when we wrap this,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: maybe we can catch the end of England games. We'll
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: go to that. All right, that's the end for Ben
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: and I's portion of the show, But do not miss
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Ben's interview with ron Ayub about some really important political
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: dynamics happening right now in India, So stick around for
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: that after the break. Pots Save the World is brought
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• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: I am very pleased to be joined once again on
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: pods of the world. It's been too long. Rana Aeb
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: is an Indian journalist and author. She's an opinion columnist
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: for The Washington Post. She's the author of the classic
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: book Gujarat Files, Anatomy of a cover Up. She's on substack.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: Everybody should check her subsec out. Rana, thanks so much
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: for joining us.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 12: Ben.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: We haven't talked in a bit. I mean last time
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: we talked was after the general elections in India when
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Nandro Modi and his BJP party one once again. Since then,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: a lot of things have happened. We've had further elections
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: in India. Recently, we've had this war in Iran and
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: we also have the cockroach movement that has exploded in India.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: I wanted to start by asking you to tell writings
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: it may not be familiar with it, about that movement,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: how it started, what it's about, and what it's becoming.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 15: Well, then a lot has happened since Modi's last general election.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: He won the regional election in India.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 15: Of course, now elections in India are no longer a
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 15: level playing field, which which is probably it's you know,
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 15: mo these goverment and modise. Modi has used central agencies
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 15: to literally co opt almost every political opposition in this country.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: But the cockroa Junta party has.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 15: Come in from the space of void in the sense
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 15: that so it started with the Chief Justice of India.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 15: He made an off the cuff remark in the court
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 15: about the unemployed youth in India.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: He compared them to cockroaches.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 15: He said, they are like cockroaches festuring everywhere, and you
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 15: know they're filing, they're becoming activists, they're filing applications in court,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 15: they're wasting the time of the court. So there is
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 15: already a resentment in this country by a huge section
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 15: of the of people who are dealing with power and unemployment.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 15: Instead of taking that as a slur, they they turned
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 15: it into a satire, you know. So they started it
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 15: started as an Instagram page saying we the cockroaches. The
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 15: cockroa junta party, and it said that we are a
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 15: bunch of lazy people and are you know, it was
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 15: just was more like a satire, like, you know, we
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 15: are the cock coroaches. Everybody was. But what was shocking
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 15: is and probably it was, you know, it reflected about it.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 15: It was a reflection about the disenchantment that Indian Indian
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 15: youth is facing right now with the government that within
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 15: about seven days there were twenty two million followers on Instagram, right,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 15: much more than Netmodi or the ruling Party of India
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 15: or the opposition party of India.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: It was and it was organic.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 15: None of these people came from a political you know,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 15: back room or an organized political party. It was it
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 15: started off as an Internet movement. It was very very
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 15: organic and before we knew it was the top of
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 15: the town. These people suddenly had an agenda, five point
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 15: agenda about clearing up the education system, clearing up corruption in.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: India clearing up.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 15: You know position, I mean the hierarchy in India and Modi,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 15: I mean Modi does not love activism.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: It is a bad word for him. You know.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 15: Every time there's a student's movement, he always calls it
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 15: a Soros back movement.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: And they were quick to jump on this.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 15: They immediately banned the Twitter account of the Instagram account,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 15: citing national security, saying that the cockword Junta Party was
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 15: fronted by elements from across the border.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: In fact BGP leaders.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 15: More these BJP, their leaders said that a lot of
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 15: their followers are from Pakistan. So the corkor Junta Party
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 15: also showed it lists, showed its list of followers which
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 15: are all Indian.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: So I feel the.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 15: Cocord Junta Party and the meme of the cockroach has
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 15: resonated quite a bit with the average Indian which has
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 15: been feeling led down and unseen.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: And with this movement, it is trying to be seen.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 15: By Indiana uh uh and by the elite in India,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 15: by the political powers. And I think it has made
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 15: a splash in the Indian political movement and rightly so.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 15: The Indian the BJP is worried about it and its existence.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, obviously India is a massively different scale.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: But uh, you know, we've been following over the last
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: couple of years these movements in Nepal and Bangladesh that
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: have rocked and toppled governments. Actually, and I don't think
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: that's necessarily gonna happen in India, but that's right in
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: the neighborhood. And I'm curious how you think about what
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: is similar between this movement and the movements we've seen
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: in South Asia And obviously what is different in the
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: sense that you know, this is probably not going to
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: result in the kind of overturning of governance like we
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: saw in those countries. But but but where do you
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: think it might lead going forward?
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 15: So, when the Coco Junta Party gained popularity on social
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 15: media and everybody thought this was our gen Zees that
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 15: changed government in nepal And and in in Bangladesh and
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 15: in Sri Lanka, everybody thought this was our moment.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: Where the gen Z takes over.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 15: And many of the followers do believe that it is
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 15: their moment in the sun.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: The gen Z is trying to assert itself.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 15: But when the leaders of the Kokua Junta Party were
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 15: post this question, they said, and they said they were
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 15: far too mature to indulge in any arson or any
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 15: you know, any any activity that that aims to kind
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 15: of disturb the atmosphere of peace in that country. So
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 15: they were trying to be very, very careful to not
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 15: position themselves at as and compare themselves to the outfits
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 15: in Pakistan and other countries in South Asia, because they
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 15: knew that, I mean, they knew that any such statement
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 15: would be used by the government of India to quell
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 15: the protest and to silence them. Because I think the
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 15: moment when something like this happened in Pakistan and Sri
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 15: Lanka and Nepal, I think the first thing that the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 15: Indian establishment said that you do not allow something like
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 15: this to happen in India because because activism.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: In India has become a bad word.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 15: So I think the Kokoa Jenda Party has has has
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 15: been playing it very very It's been working a delicate
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 15: tride trope, trying hard to not compare itself with the
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 15: movement in South Asia.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: And the second thing is, I think.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 15: Right now this movement is largely on social media, when
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 15: they right now they're protesting on the streets but the numbers.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 15: I mean, of course it's the Indian summer peak Indian summer,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 15: but still the numbers are not quite surging as much
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 15: as one expected it to see. It has made us splash,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 15: but it does not have the same intensity of the
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 15: protest in South Asia. Having said that, it's just a beginning,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 15: right it is not a political movement. It does not
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 15: have the finances to sustain something like this. It is
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 15: right now battling a government and also battling for its
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 15: own survival right now because the government is trying to
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 15: ban its very existent So right now, I think it's
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 15: a very it's a very slow process where the popularity
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 15: has come down to an extent where people people are like,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 15: what exactly will they achieve this? It has shown promise,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 15: but people are being very very careful because Cocoa Junta
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 15: Party has not taken an ideological position yet, so a
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 15: lot of the critics, especially in the left liberal circles
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 15: and expecting it to take a position of the majoritarianism
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 15: of the Modi government as opposed to the Cocoa Jenda
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 15: Party is saying we have got to restrict tassels.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: To just education and unemployment.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 15: So I think there are There is a certain opposition
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 15: to the c JP as it's called, but I think
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 15: it will reveal itself in Munthson and till the next
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 15: general election.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to come back to the opposition, but
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about nd in his foreign policy
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: and how it's playing at home. And there are two
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: leaders of asking about Let's start with Trump. So you know,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: Mody really embraced Trump UH in his first term and
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: kind of endorsed him when he ran for reelection. Was
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: clearly selling that these are like minded kind of nationalists,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: strongman types. Just watching from Afar. A lot of things
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump's done have hurt India since he came back
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: into power. You know, we saw terroriffs put on India.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: We saw Trump embrace Pakistan, basically siding almost with Pakistan
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: when there was the conflict, bragging about ending the war
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: and demanding that Modi nominating for a Nobel Peace Prize.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: We saw the war in Iran obviously part of Trump's
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: you know, signature of farm policy effort has had a
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: really crippling effect on India. UH and it could given
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: the amount of you know, energy that it gets through
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: the straight of hor moves. Is there any political bullback
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: that Modi's face. He put all these chips on Trump
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: and and it feels like the second Trump term has
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: been not only not good for Mody, but kind of
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: embarrassing at times. Y what what? How do people in
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: India look at that?
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 15: It is extremely embarrassing because the same Moodie fanboys who
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 15: were like worshiping Trump and creating these statues of Trump
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 15: are suddenly now abusing him in India and and they
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 15: don't know how to reconcile this too. That you know,
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 15: Modi fort Trump on a pedestal. He was his best friend.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 15: He campaigned for Trump in the US and did a
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 15: huge rally for Trump in India. And now Trump is
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 15: somehow you know, he he has this bipolar relationship with Modia.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 15: On some days he's going to comment on Modi's complexion
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 15: and his personality, and odd days he's going to call
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 15: India a country of you know, using racist slurs against India.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 15: I think where India is concerned, I think it has
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 15: revealed India's absolutely bizarre foreign policy, because we do not
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 15: seem to have a foreign policy. And I think Trump
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 15: has really exposed the rot within or when it when?
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: When? When the when US and Israel ways to on Iran.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: Primeister Modi was in Israel.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 15: He was he was on a three day trip with
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 15: Bibi Nathan Yahu and they were both posing for pictures
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 15: and they were doing these oghs. And whether Nathaniya who
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 15: told him about about the war, the impending war, or
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 15: did not.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: In both the situations, Modi looked.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 15: I mean, it was a he lost face because you
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 15: are visiting Israel and suddenly the next day Israel bombs Iran.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 15: And then India, which has been a long standing ally
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 15: of Iran, does not say a single statement condemning the
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 15: murder of at La Chimeni. And then of course, you
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 15: know when the US torpedo or the ship Irish Dana,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 15: there was not a single statement from the Indian Prime
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 15: minister or even at the killing of the three naval
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 15: officers by By.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: And I should decide for people, this is a ship,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: this is that had been in India, invited by the
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: Indian government for you know, kind of a the imitation
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: of many different countries for kind of military demonstrations, and
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: it gets sunk and all the people on board get killed,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: you know, which was a huge embarrassment. Didinia. But anyway,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: so I just wanted to let people know, and you know, India's.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 15: Foreign Minister Jea Shankar or India's prime minister, I mean
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 15: that that ship was India's guest and it's left to India,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 15: and there's killed Indians in pakistanis and forruncans, and you
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 15: cannot bring yourself to condemn that action. You cannot bring
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 15: yourself to condemn the action in which US attacks an
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 15: Indian naval ship which kills three Indians.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: And you know, in.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 15: This meeting recently at the G seven when Modi and
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 15: Trump were sitting and Trump is congratulating Modi personally and
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 15: said He's only going to have good relationship with India
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 15: as long as Mothi is the prime minister.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: And it felt like it was Modi's own image.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 15: Controls as opposed to being as opposed to being as
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 15: opposed to negotiating with Trump as a country. It felt
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 15: like it was more image building for Modi. So more
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 15: these foreign police policies mostly optics. Trump has burtd India,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 15: saying that he was the one who got a fire
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 15: between India and Pakistan through the through the war last
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 15: year and not once Indian's Indian Foreign Office has said
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 15: of the record that that Trump did not broke the steal.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 15: But Trump keeps on repeating this in every single press conference,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 15: asking for in a belpiece price. But till today, Modi
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 15: has not said a word about this. Modi has not
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 15: issued a statement. So I feel like and then you know,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 15: then and then you see him posing for a picture
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 15: with Georgia Maloney with a chocolate calling it chocolate diplomacy.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 15: I mean, I'm no fan of Georgia Maloney, but when
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 15: Trump says something about her begging for a selfie, at
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 15: least you put out a statement saying you know what,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 15: neither does she nor Italy beg for a selfie?
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: Where is India self respect?
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 15: So I feel like Indians are feeling the pinch, and
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 15: a big section section of the Indian community and foreign
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 15: policy officials also feeling that if you do not stand
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 15: for anything right, if you are the democratic counterweight to China,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 15: if you believe you are, you know, the world's largest democracy,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 15: you need to stand for something. And if you do
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 15: not stand for anything, then you will not you will
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 15: lose all the respect that you believe the virtual accord
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 15: to you. Moti calls himself the wish Wiguru, the global leader.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: But where is this.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 15: Condemnation of what's happening in Iran, what's happening with in Palestine.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: There's not been a single strong statement.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 15: And then you have Asimuni, the Field Marshal of Pakistan
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 15: and the Pakistani Prime Minister. Now you know which we're
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 15: always You know, India always said that it had isolated Pakistan,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 15: you know, in the world.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: I don't think this looks like isolation at all.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 15: In fact, it feels like he has given Pakistan a
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 15: new lease of life. Trump has given Pakistan newlys of life,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 15: but has given it to you. You found legitimacy. So
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 15: I feel like India's stance is a big loser where
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 15: foreign policy is concerned.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never seen actually Pakistan given the spotlight that
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: Trump has put on it in the in this war.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: You already anticipated. The second thing I was gonna ask
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: you about was that tripp to Israel with prem Minister
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: Ninia and this kind of full embrace of Israel before
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: the war. But I do want to ask one more
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: question about the war, which is I do want to
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: just describe We've talked a bit about the shortages in India.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: You know, it's running low on fuel. We've seen reports
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: about Indians having to ration cooking oil, about businesses and
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: restaurants having to shut down, prices going up. What is
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: the effect? Do ordinary Indians feel the pinch of this
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: war or is this just something that shows up more
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: in kind of economic metrics.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: I think that there has been a huge economical of percussion.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 15: Premister Modi has asked Indians to stop buying gold, stop
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 15: traveling abroad, to start working from home, stop flying, stopped
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 15: using air transport, you know carpool, stop using their public transport.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: So I feel like we are feeling the pinch.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 15: The price of domestic fuel has increased, the price of petrol,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 15: CNG diesel has increased in India and the and those
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 15: who are feeling the pinch are the ones who are
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 15: economically in the lower strata. So I feel like there
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 15: is a great deal of resentment thanks to the war.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 15: Which is why Morei's popularity his his twelfth year in power,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 15: and I feel like for this very reason, Modi's popularity
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 15: is not the same as it was said last year.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 15: So the war on Iran has had repercussions and which
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 15: is why modis trying to do a lot of this
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 15: internal stuff like stirring up anti Muslim you know, sentiments
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 15: in the country to kind of divert the attention from
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 15: the real problem, which.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: Is a fuel crisis in India right now.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 15: Small restaurants are shutting down, you know, small business owners
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 15: are shutting down their business because they cannot afford it.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: People are not taking the flights.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 15: The airline businesses says that one of the biggest airlines
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 15: in India has said that it plans to shut it
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 15: will shut down if the more the government does not
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 15: take enough steps. So I feel like we have had
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 15: real repercussions of the war.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: And instead of giving us.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 15: A solution or trying to kind of play a role
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 15: in in allaying the fears of this of the country,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 15: what you see is Moody going on these foreign trips
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 15: and you know, and and and taking selfies with international leaders.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 15: And I think that has angered a big section of
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 15: the people, which is why something like a Cocrow junta party,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 15: which has.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: Happened at just the right moment.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 15: Has has become has become has got the popularity that
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 15: it did because it's not happening in a void. It
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 15: is happening at a time when there is rising unemployment,
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 15: when the war on Iran has has led to consequences
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 15: in India where people are losing their jobs, where where
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 15: poverty levels are increasing every day, where where where people in.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: India cannot get by.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 15: So I feel like the outputs like the cockcro Junta
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 15: party at a result of this for a big reason,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 15: the war on Iran and the crisis that is happening
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 15: in the strait of hormones.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: So Rana that it's so helpful and helping us understand
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: what's going on in the cockroach movement in Indian from
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: policy modey standing just to end here, what should we
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: be looking for in terms of where the political opposition
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: goes in the months ahead? How should were you thinking
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: about things? Because obviously Modi is still very entrenched in power.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: What are the signs that this might lead to actual
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: more strong opposition or maybe Moody can recover as he
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: has done multiple times.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 15: But at this point of time, Ben, the Indian opposition
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 15: is exactly the same where it was a couple of
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 15: months ago, because they have we have had recent local
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 15: elections for which Trump also congratulated Modi in which Modi
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 15: had a sweeping victory, but that election happened in a
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 15: in an atmosphere that it was not a level playing field.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 15: Modi has post all the opposition leaders on his side,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 15: where he has used central agencies uh to to kind
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 15: of level charges and level cases and get them on
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 15: their side.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: The election system has not been the same.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 15: A lot of voters have been disenfranchises is disenfranchised in India.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 15: So yes, a corpora junta party can make a difference.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 15: But and you have a country of one point four
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 15: billion people and you still have big players like the
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 15: Congress Party and other regional parties who are being systematically
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 15: decimated using central agencies and using the Election Commission of
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 15: INNdiA which seems to be compromised. I think Modi can
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 15: even look for a third term in power because things
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 15: are very much sculed in favor of Modi right now.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: But one can have some.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 15: I would really wait and watch what the copor Jelta
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 15: party is capable of because the resentment of the ground.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: Also is real.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 15: Modi can we know over the end and kind of
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 15: snatch away the powers of the opposition party, but he
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 15: will really have to deal with the resentment on the ground,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 15: so one has to wait and watch what happens with
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 15: the corpor Jelda party right now.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: No, that's a great point. I mean, you know he
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: can tighten his grip, but actually that might make the
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: bottom up opposition, you know, that much more intense as
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: we've seen in neighboring countries. Will a lot, Ron, and
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us. Everybody should follow you,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: everybody I do on social media, on substack, on your
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: watching post. You're such a clear voice on all these issues,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: so thanks for helping us understand what's been going on.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: Thank you so much, Ben Pleasure, so always.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: Thanks to ron I you for doing the show. Thanks
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: to you Ben for dialing in from what's pretty late
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: over there in London, and see you in person next week.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: Potse of the World is a quick and media production.
• 1:28:16
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