Latest / Carson's Corner: Entrepreneurship & Investing / Underwriting Is Where Deals Are Won or Lost: Dr. Jason Williams of Ironclad Underwriting
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: When you're buying a hundred unit property, you are usually buying a business as well, not just the real estate.
- 0:06SPEAKER_02: Today's guest is Dr.
- 0:08SPEAKER_02: Jason Williams, an active sponsor who has underwritten more than$500 million in commercial real estate and the man behind ironclad underwriting.
- 0:17SPEAKER_03: People look at stuff and be like, the insurance sounds low.
- 0:20SPEAKER_03: I'm like, okay.
- 0:20SPEAKER_03: Well, that's something that you verify during due diligence.
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: They won't even verify anything themselves.
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: So my first red flag is trusting but not verify.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: Everything needs third-party verification.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: The OM is made by the brokers.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: The broker doesn't care if what happens to the property after it sells.
- 0:39SPEAKER_03: Well, I'm a broker and I'm an investor too.
- 0:41SPEAKER_03: Their incentive is to sell it.
- 0:43SPEAKER_03: They're not looking out for your interest.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: Back when San Antonio was getting like 30% rent growth.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: I had people underwriting 30% rent growth for buying a property.
- 0:53SPEAKER_00: I can almost guarantee if they did get it, they don't have that property now because the bank probably took it.
- 0:59SPEAKER_00: My second red flag is using temporary trends for the long game.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: Since my mentor said this, then it has to be right.
- 1:06SPEAKER_00: And I paid him$40,000.
- 1:08SPEAKER_03: He'll say, like, I'm multifamily only.
- 1:10SPEAKER_03: I'm like, Well, is your house multi-family?
- 1:12SPEAKER_03: You went to a coaching school and you're repeating what your mentor told you.
- 1:15SPEAKER_00: They might have like 150 people on a call, and so they pop up your deal for maybe 10-15 minutes, look it over, and then they'll say, Yeah, this looks good or no.
- 1:25SPEAKER_03: People always say, like, I don't care if I lose the money and that's they're lying.
- 1:29SPEAKER_03: They're investing because you're their friend.
- 1:31SPEAKER_00: The person who just gave you their last$50,000 does care if you lose all the money.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: And so will they survive if they lose it all?
- 1:40SPEAKER_00: It's not timing real estate, it's time in real estate.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: There you go.
- 1:45SPEAKER_03: What other uh red flags are you do you have?
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I have uh seven red flags.
- 1:50SPEAKER_00: These are the seven red flags.
- 1:54SPEAKER_03: Welcome to the Carson's Quarter.
- 1:57SPEAKER_03: All right, I'm sitting here with Mr.
- 1:59SPEAKER_03: Jason Williams.
- 2:00SPEAKER_03: He is an underwriting expert and coach with Ironclad Underwriting.
- 2:06SPEAKER_03: He has 20 plus years of experience in investing.
- 2:11SPEAKER_03: He owns apartments himself.
- 2:13SPEAKER_03: These are practices that he uses for his own deals.
- 2:16SPEAKER_03: Um, he's underwritten$500 plus million dollars in deals.
- 2:21SPEAKER_03: Those aren't necessarily his deals, but he's been the underwriter and helped underwrite that many deals.
- 2:26SPEAKER_03: 100 plus deals, and these are commercial grade deals with you know multiple units and stuff like that.
- 2:32SPEAKER_03: So he also has his own podcast and uh coaching school and all that.
- 2:36SPEAKER_03: So how you doing, Jason?
- 2:39SPEAKER_03: Pretty good, Carson.
- 2:40SPEAKER_03: How are you doing?
- 2:41SPEAKER_03: I'm really good.
- 2:43SPEAKER_03: So um there's a lot to uncover here.
- 2:47SPEAKER_03: Um I think most people going in buying real estate, it's like any other business, they get really excited about the asset and the partners they're going in with.
- 2:58SPEAKER_03: And oh wow, we can own this apartment complex together, and they get their money together, and you know, you're the doctor behind the scenes saying, well, let's let's check this, let's check this asset out and see if it um holds a pencil or holds water, whatever you want to call it, and uh all that.
- 3:17SPEAKER_03: So um is that basically what you do is you train people on how to walk through the asset and all the numbers and all that, right?
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I train people on how to underwrite, and that that's basically just running the numbers on an apartment complex or any commercial real estate.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: Um, but I also consult, so people would come to me and say, hey, how does my underwriting look?
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: And then I can go and point out some either some like really gross errors that they missed or at least point out, hey, you you are assuming this.
- 3:51SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna say, hey, what your risk tolerance is, but at least this is a risk you need to at least acknowledge before you move in.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: Because I I don't want my clients or my students going into something blind, but I'm not also there not to say, hey, I I I might say I wouldn't do it, but everybody's risk tolerance is different.
- 4:10SPEAKER_03: And so I don't disagree, but you're you're basically saying, hey, there's probably a could be a pothole over here on the right, you know, watch out for it, or you know, I I think part of the assumption is is people go from single family to multifamily and think, oh, it's just a bigger version of what I was already doing, but the numbers are on steroids, and every little thing that uh messes up or can go wrong is multiplied too.
- 4:37SPEAKER_03: It's not just the income and you know the consolidation and all the good reasons, you know, the downside's just as uh you know elevated as well.
- 4:48SPEAKER_03: So you have what is it okay if we uh walk through your red flags, or what were you gonna say?
- 4:53SPEAKER_03: Go ahead.
- 4:54SPEAKER_00: No, yeah, we can go through my red flags.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: Um, but yeah, I was gonna say that um going from a single family home to say a hundred unit property, it is almost like a hundred Xing the issues that you would face with a single family, but actually probably more because when you're buying a hundred unit property, you are usually buying a business as well, not just the real estate.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: You're buying into the property management, carrying out your business plan, making sure that one, your business plan is sound, and two, that the people who are supposed to be carrying it out can carry it out.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: So it is a little bit more hands-on than a single family, which I must say I have some single families, and I don't have like weekly meetings with my manager.
- 5:48SPEAKER_00: I barely have monthly meetings.
- 5:50SPEAKER_00: I might send a text saying, hey, what's going on, or they'll send me a text saying, Hey, something's broken.
- 5:55SPEAKER_00: But that's about it.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: I don't hold meetings, but with my large properties, I hold weekly meetings with them and I go to the properties, walk the properties, making sure they're doing what they're supposed to because it is a bigger asset, more at risk than just a single family.
- 6:13SPEAKER_00: So yeah.
- 6:14SPEAKER_03: Basically, you know, so you're holding weekly meetings with these managers, holding them accountable, finding out what's going on.
- 6:21SPEAKER_03: Is it mainly collections and stuff like that that you have to stay on top of, or is it just everything, making sure the tenants are taken care of and all that?
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: It it's it's a little bit of everything.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: It's making sure your work orders are getting taken care of.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: It's making sure your units are being turned the way they're supposed to be turned, making sure units are being rented, making sure you have the traffic to uh and the leads to bring the traffic up so you can get occupancy up if you have uh occupancy issues.
- 6:52SPEAKER_00: So I mean it's a little bit of everything.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: I walk the property sometimes so I can see how much trash is on the ground, how many dogs litter is not being picked up, stuff like that, because all of that reflects on the property.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: And if no one's picking that stuff up, then it makes your property look bad.
- 7:11SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I I think all this that you're talking about really brings value to what underwriting is, is most people that start underwriting the bigger complexes don't understand that the underwriting is just a spreadsheet, and you're the one that brings the expertise that says there's a lot of human elements that affect this spreadsheet, and that's kind of what makes you the expert in underwriting because you know all the things that happen in the real world.
- 7:39SPEAKER_03: Is that correct?
- 7:41SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't say I know all the things that happen in the real world, but I I will say that from my experience, my my underwriting has changed just on my experience alone, and based on my clients and my students, uh what what they have seen, um, I have implemented into my underwriting.
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: As I'm a strong believer of learning off of other people's mistakes and not just my own.
- 8:07SPEAKER_03: So yeah.
- 8:08SPEAKER_03: I I had a friend that owned some apartment complex, and you know, a drunk driver ran over their sign and like hit one of the sides.
- 8:15SPEAKER_03: I said, You didn't underwrite for that, did you?
- 8:18SPEAKER_03: You know, there's just some things that you in the real world you can't write underwrite for every single thing.
- 8:23SPEAKER_03: You can't mitigate every single risk, but you're basically like a backstop to catch as much stuff as possible.
- 8:31SPEAKER_03: So um what what are the kind of the red flags that are high level that you uh look for?
- 8:38SPEAKER_00: So so a lot of times my clients will come to me um and they'll have an OM, a rent roll, and a T12.
- 8:46SPEAKER_00: That's like the offering memorandum.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: The rent rolls a list of all the residents and what units they're in, how much they're paying, how much they're behind they are.
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: And then the T12 is a trailing 12-month profit and loss statement.
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: So they'll come to me with that and they'll put in the numbers from the OM for like whatever the OM's pro forma numbers are, and they won't even verify anything themselves.
- 9:12SPEAKER_00: Or they might go off of like insurance or taxes from the T12, and they again won't verify anything themselves.
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: So my first red flag that I see a lot is trusting but not verifying.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: So everything needs to be verified, everything needs third-party um verification moving forward.
- 9:34SPEAKER_00: I mean, I if if I am heavily invested in a single market, I could possibly know what rents can go off, what a two by two rent would be based off my own properties.
- 9:46SPEAKER_00: But if I'm in a brand new market, I'm expecting somebody else to give me what the rents are.
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I can go to apartments.com and figure out what a two by two would be with similar amenities, but I want a property manager who's going to be managing that property to tell me this is what we should be able to get for rent for this type or whatever.
- 10:07SPEAKER_03: So I think a lot of like even when I sell apartments, it's like people look at stuff and be like, the insurance sounds low.
- 10:16SPEAKER_03: I'm like, okay, well, that's something that you verify during due diligence.
- 10:20SPEAKER_03: And but basically, do they you know verify it?
- 10:24SPEAKER_03: I'm sure at some level, you know, investors that are underwriting the property just take something at value and say, okay, the insurance is right when it might not be, you know.
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I I am a strong believer in having good people on your team.
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: I'm not just talking about like a GP team, but I have an insurance broker who, if I am looking, like actively looking at a property that I'm gonna submit an LOI on, I am giving him my rent roll T12 and OM, and I get an indication within like a day or two of what a range of insurance should be for similar properties in that area, similar vintage.
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: And I'm going off of that.
- 11:09SPEAKER_00: I'm not just going, all right, I'm gonna assume that the OM is right, because the OM is made by the brokers.
- 11:16SPEAKER_00: The broker doesn't care if what happens to the property after it sells.
- 11:21SPEAKER_00: Um, all they care about is is getting the sale, getting their commission, and moving on, and maybe selling the property whenever it's your turn to sell it.
- 11:31SPEAKER_00: Um they don't care if it gets foreclosed closed on.
- 11:34SPEAKER_00: I mean, they don't want it to, I'm sure, but it's no skin off their teeth if that happens.
- 11:40SPEAKER_03: So yeah.
- 11:42SPEAKER_03: Well, I'm a broker and I'm an investor too, so I understand it's like, you know, I I don't want any of that to happen, but but in general, their incentive is to sell it.
- 11:52SPEAKER_03: You know, they're not looking out for your interest because I know as an investor, I'm like, well, you know, at the end of the day, it all falls on me.
- 12:00SPEAKER_03: This is my apartment complex.
- 12:01SPEAKER_03: When we buy this and take it over, you know, we have to be accountable for everything on the um list.
- 12:08SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, how bad are insurance rates in Texas right now?
- 12:14SPEAKER_03: Probably not out in West Texas where you live, but I don't know.
- 12:17SPEAKER_03: I know Florida has just gotten outrageous.
- 12:20SPEAKER_00: So well, I I'm right now I'm in North Texas and honestly, our our rates were climbing.
- 12:28SPEAKER_00: Our first year we went up like 40% over what we were expecting.
- 12:33SPEAKER_00: Wow.
- 12:34SPEAKER_00: Um which was a kick to the pants.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: But on this last go around, um I got an insurance um quote for like$72,000.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: And like last year it was$69,000.
- 12:49SPEAKER_00: And then I looked at the quote again, and the$72,000 was for two properties, not just one.
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: So actually our insurance dropped another it dropped 40% from what it was last year.
- 13:02SPEAKER_00: So insurance is coming down.
- 13:04SPEAKER_00: Um back in 2021, we had that big freeze where all of Texas was frozen.
- 13:11SPEAKER_00: I think it made the national news like every single county in Texas had like a freeze warning.
- 13:16SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: Killed the insurance for five years, and then five years passed and now insurance is coming back down.
- 13:23SPEAKER_03: So that's why So it finally got paid for, they got their money back from that.
- 13:27SPEAKER_03: I just I don't know.
- 13:29SPEAKER_03: Is it good advice?
- 13:30SPEAKER_03: Let me ask you this, and this is kind of off the record.
- 13:33SPEAKER_03: If you say, say if you had a roofing claim on insurance, would it be a good idea to just cancel your insurance right after you fulfill that claim?
- 13:42SPEAKER_03: Because I always say they're gonna get it back and start raising your rates on you.
- 13:46SPEAKER_03: And I kind of feel like mine did after a roofing claim.
- 13:49SPEAKER_03: And I'm like, maybe I should have just canceled right after, but I don't know.
- 13:53SPEAKER_03: I'm just talking out loud here, you and I.
- 13:55SPEAKER_00: So if you cancel right after, you are gonna have to find more insurance because your lender is gonna require you have insurance.
- 14:04SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 14:05SPEAKER_00: Um, and the new insurance company is gonna know that there was a claim because it's not a secret, and so canceling it versus and getting another one versus keeping it.
- 14:19SPEAKER_00: Uh honestly, that's what my insurance broker is for, and I'll talk to him about it.
- 14:25SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if it was high enough or if um the payout was significant, there's a chance that you would also get dropped from it as well.
- 14:35SPEAKER_00: It's like we're not gonna continue with you.
- 14:37SPEAKER_00: But also a roof, they're not expecting a roof to go out again um in like one to two years after it's been replaced.
- 14:46SPEAKER_03: Yeah, more than likely they're gonna keep you on and just try and get the a little bit of their money back, you know.
- 14:50SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you're you're you're yeah, your your premium might go up a little bit.
- 14:56SPEAKER_00: Um and it all depends on what your deductible is.
- 15:03SPEAKER_00: If if you have a single building with one roof, that could be significant.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: But if you have ten buildings and only one roof, then it's like if and you have a maybe a hundred thousand, two hundred and fifty thousand dollar deductible, you could probably get that one building re-roofed cheaper than your deductible or right around your deductible.
- 15:25SPEAKER_00: And if you if you re-roof it without going through insurance, then you don't have a claim and you don't have to worry.
- 15:34SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's interesting.
- 15:37SPEAKER_03: It's it these numbers that you're uh talking here kind of give people an eye-opener as to what we're talking about, like the commercial side of the business, you know, the dollar amounts versus insuring a single family home, and then we're talking about 72,000, 150,000, and you know, those numbers are significantly bigger.
- 15:56SPEAKER_03: Like, like we said, it's on steroids.
- 15:58SPEAKER_03: But so what other uh red flags are you do you have um when you're going through underwriting?
- 16:05SPEAKER_00: So an another one I saw, and this one was really bad a few years ago, like 21-22 era.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: Um back when San Antonio was getting like 30% rent growth for the last like two years.
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they I had people underwriting 30% rent growth for buying a property.
- 16:29SPEAKER_00: And I pointed that out and I said, This is unrealistic, and and you shouldn't be underwriting 30% rent growth.
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: I just flat out told them.
- 16:39SPEAKER_00: I and I know I said earlier that it's all about risk tolerance, but that one I just flat out said, that's just stupid doing that.
- 16:47SPEAKER_00: Um but they said, no, this that's what we're told that's what we're just gonna underwrite it at.
- 16:53SPEAKER_00: It's like, all right, well, that's on you.
- 16:55SPEAKER_00: I don't know if they got it or not, but I can almost guarantee if they did get it, they don't have that property now because the bank probably took it.
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: Because San Antonio, Phoenix, um, parts of Houston, DFW, right at 2022, all rents were actually going in the negative direction.
- 17:13SPEAKER_00: They were decreasing rents just to keep it occupied.
- 17:16SPEAKER_00: And and if you're underwriting for 30 percent, then yeah.
- 17:20SPEAKER_00: So my second red flag is using temporary trends for the long game, and that that's no no bueno there.
- 17:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah, understood.
- 17:29SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's it's kind of uh one of those things where if you're putting in rent growth like that, you're not really accounting for that there's a lack of supply in real estate, is a little slower to react to that um, you know, supply and demand dynamic, but it'll eventually catch up to it.
- 17:48SPEAKER_03: You know, rents can't stay elevated for that long before builders just start building left and right.
- 17:53SPEAKER_03: And they did back then, and a lot came online and those the rent growth basically disappeared overnight.
- 18:00SPEAKER_03: So anyway.
- 18:02SPEAKER_03: Um what other ones do you have on there?
- 18:05SPEAKER_03: Do you do you have some others?
- 18:07SPEAKER_03: Or I think you do on there, seven or something.
- 18:10SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I have uh seven red flags that I I can go over that I these are the seven red flags that I see a lot, and I have them on my website too, ironcladunderreading.com.
- 18:21SPEAKER_00: If you want or your listeners want to uh learn more about them.
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 18:26SPEAKER_00: Um but there's a lot of people out there who have like mentorship programs in multifamily space.
- 18:35SPEAKER_00: Um, some of them are good, some of them are not so good.
- 18:39SPEAKER_00: But what I have seen is people just arbitrarily following a guru.
- 18:45SPEAKER_00: They don't understand where the numbers are coming from from the guru, but that they're since since my mentor said this, then it has to be right because that's what my mentor says, and I paid him forty thousand dollars, so I'm gonna go off of his numbers, and so that that can get people in a pickle.
- 19:04SPEAKER_00: Um yeah.
- 19:07SPEAKER_03: Well, I you hear different people they start talking about, you know, and you can kind of tell it when people start talking like that, but there's other things they'll say like, I'm multifamily only.
- 19:20SPEAKER_03: I'm like, Well, is your house multifamily?
- 19:22SPEAKER_03: And it's like, no, you're not multifamily only.
- 19:24SPEAKER_03: You went to a coaching school and you're repeating what your mentor told you, and like that's what you focus on.
- 19:32SPEAKER_03: You know, there's nothing wrong with specialization, but you have to have like a certain broader scope.
- 19:38SPEAKER_03: Like, there's stocks and other things without giving financial advice, but there's no real like one asset class.
- 19:45SPEAKER_03: I mean, there's RV parks, there's mobile home parks, but you do have these people that get out of these mentor programs and they're almost like they're brainwashed, you know.
- 19:55SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and it's not and like like you said, it's not like their mentor is a bad person or it's all bad.
- 20:01SPEAKER_03: It's just like, you know, you have to be open to other ideas, but anyway.
- 20:06SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I know people who signed on with a mentorship program.
- 20:11SPEAKER_00: They had like a a pretty good cash-flowing portfolio of single-family homes, and they ended up selling all of those and going all in on multifamily, and because that's what their mentor told them to do.
- 20:23SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah.
- 20:24SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, if that's what you want to do, fine.
- 20:27SPEAKER_00: But I mean, like you said, there's you don't have to do that, there's other avenues around that.
- 20:33SPEAKER_00: Um but in regards to underwriting, I have seen when when they do an underwriting call with some of those uh gurus, the mentors, they might have like 150 people on a call, and you're hoping that your deal gets to be looked at.
- 20:51SPEAKER_00: And so they pop up your deal for maybe 10, 15 minutes, look it over, and then they'll say, Yeah, this looks good or no.
- 20:58SPEAKER_00: And that's not enough to to go through and say, hey, this is a good deal.
- 21:03SPEAKER_00: I mean, you honestly need a deep dive into underwriting, especially when you're putting millions of your dollars and investor dollars at stake.
- 21:11SPEAKER_00: Um Yeah.
- 21:13SPEAKER_00: That I mean, you you need more than just 10, 15 minutes.
- 21:17SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I don't disagree.
- 21:19SPEAKER_03: I mean, when you have like most investors, they have family friends or people they know that are investing alongside of them, and they don't really realize at the time that these investments can affect relationships because people always say, like, I don't care if I I lose the money and that's they're lying.
- 21:38SPEAKER_03: You know, they're investing because you're their friend.
- 21:41SPEAKER_03: But if you're in charge of the investment syndication, people always get pissed if it goes south.
- 21:48SPEAKER_03: And, you know, I've had deals go very, very well, and I've well, especially in the oil business, I've had a couple that didn't perform, and people some of some people were like, Okay, it's part of the business.
- 22:00SPEAKER_03: And other people, they get pissed.
- 22:02SPEAKER_03: So, you know, there's a certain level of responsibility that comes comes with underwriting these deals.
- 22:08SPEAKER_03: And it's like, but it's also your own money, too.
- 22:12SPEAKER_03: You know, you don't if you're not like somewhat cautionary, you don't want to be scared to make a decision.
- 22:18SPEAKER_03: You can't underwrite every risk, but having good solid foundation of underwriting is really like gonna make you feel better about it.
- 22:35SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and like I said, everybody has their own risk tolerance.
- 22:39SPEAKER_00: And when you're getting investors online with your with your investments, you you and your investors' risk tolerance need to be aligned because if you don't care if you lose any money, the person who just gave you their last$50,000 does care if you lose all the money.
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: And so one, and this this goes not for underwriting, but for capital raising, you need to be cognizant of what your investors are, what sort of what their situations are.
- 23:07SPEAKER_00: Can someone risk putting$50,000 into a deal and will they survive if they lose it all, or will they go starve if they can't?
- 23:18SPEAKER_03: So I mean you know, there's and I always say this like I have friends that worked at you know big companies like Nvidia or Tesla or you know, or they have a plumbing business that's doing really well and they're making a lot of money, and they might not feel like fifty thousand dollars is a lot at the time, but if they, you know, say six months to two years later, they get laid off and they look back, they're still gonna be irritated.
- 23:43SPEAKER_03: There's never a good time to make a bad investment.
- 23:46SPEAKER_03: So it's like, you know, they say that, but 99% of the time it's BS.
- 23:52SPEAKER_03: I say, no, you care.
- 23:53SPEAKER_03: You need to you need to make sure you make money, and we need to make sure we underwrite this and look for every possible risk necessary, and you're better off passing on it and just sticking it in a CD until we find the right deal, you know.
- 24:07SPEAKER_03: I think that's part of it.
- 24:09SPEAKER_03: So, but I I feel like, you know, getting in touch with a coach like you can prevent them from making dumb decisions.
- 24:20SPEAKER_03: Because I think your emotion and excitement and like, oh, I've been talking to my buddies for the last, you know, three to six months about buying an apartment complex together or an RV park or whatever.
- 24:33SPEAKER_03: They saw some video online that made it look easy.
- 24:36SPEAKER_03: You know, being in a program.
- 24:37SPEAKER_03: So do you do RV and stuff like that, some of those other uh investment vehicles, or you know, so I I I do have models.
- 24:44SPEAKER_00: I've created custom models for RV parks, uh, mobile home communities, um, self-storage, I've done retail, mixed-use retail, like retail on the bottom floor and multifamily on the floors above it.
- 25:00SPEAKER_00: So I have a lot of models and I've helped a lot of people in that regard.
- 25:04SPEAKER_00: I invested myself.
- 25:06SPEAKER_00: I have multifamily, single families, I have residential multifamilies, which are two to four units.
- 25:14SPEAKER_00: Uh commercial multifamily is over five units.
- 25:17SPEAKER_00: And we also have a mobile home community development that we're working on right now.
- 25:22SPEAKER_00: So those are my asset classes that I actively invest in.
- 25:27SPEAKER_00: I am passively invested in other assets though.
- 25:31SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I know I think you've done oil and some other stuff.
- 25:34SPEAKER_03: So when most people come along, is it usually like the groups of people that tend to get more excited that need the you know to underwrite?
- 25:42SPEAKER_03: Or do you see individuals?
- 25:44SPEAKER_03: Because usually when it's like a single purchaser, they kind of think a little clear headed about it, I guess you could say, you know, when they're going in, or you know.
- 25:53SPEAKER_00: So I have had teams come and approach me for coaching or for consulting.
- 26:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 26:01SPEAKER_00: Um, usually it's it's a single point of contact, but their team is on board with me going through the numbers and I'll I'll meet with a team or something.
- 26:10SPEAKER_00: Um but I a lot of times what I see is when people sign up with one of the mentorship programs, they learn, hey, you don't need to put your own money down.
- 26:23SPEAKER_00: You can use other people's money, you just need to find a good sponsor.
- 26:26SPEAKER_00: And so a lot of times people would come to me and I talk to them a little about what I'm doing, and then the next thing I know is they want me to be a sponsor on their deal that I had looked like the last 15 minutes over.
- 26:41SPEAKER_00: I don't know the person who's even on the call, other than from like the last 15 minutes we talked.
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: And so again, those gurus are telling them all you need to do is find a sponsor, you don't need your own money, um, you just use other people's money, and it's actually kind of scary because honestly, I won't invest with somebody unless the person I'm investing with is also putting their money into it as well.
- 27:08SPEAKER_03: So yeah.
- 27:09SPEAKER_03: If they're the if they're the lead sponsor, you know, if they work for the sponsor, it's different, but if they're the head person behind it, it's kind of like if they don't have any money to put down, they don't have any money to help bail it out if things go wrong or something.
- 27:24SPEAKER_03: You know, it's always like in the first six months of taking it over, something always tends to backfire, talk about the J curve or something like that, or you're buying something that's development, it's like, okay, what can go wrong will go wrong, something like that.
- 27:39SPEAKER_03: And um, you need a sponsor that can cover some of that, not somebody that's uh, you know, but um what what would be your uh you know, if somebody was out there, you know, looking to get into multifamily and you're probably better off working for somebody than you are trying to do your own deal without sponsor.
- 28:06SPEAKER_03: You you see what I'm saying?
- 28:07SPEAKER_03: Like coming in with no money, it's like, you know, you might as well work for somebody, see if you even like the business, dip your toe in the water and stuff like that, and do a couple deals, you know.
- 28:18SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 28:19SPEAKER_00: If if you can do that, that would be one approach.
- 28:24SPEAKER_00: Um, my wife and I, Angel, we were our own uh lead sponsors on our first deal, so we were able to jump straight in.
- 28:32SPEAKER_00: Um, but my wife has a community that she's been nurturing for since 2019, 2020, and we got our first deal in 21.
- 28:44SPEAKER_00: So she's been nurturing those people for like two years before we even asked them for money for um investing.
- 28:52SPEAKER_00: Um we did we did have we have 20 plus years of um residential experience, so we do have some real estate experience.
- 29:01SPEAKER_00: It's just our first multifamily was our was was our we were our lead sponsors on that deal, and we still have it, and and it's still running pretty well today.
- 29:12SPEAKER_03: So yeah, but there's a huge difference though.
- 29:15SPEAKER_03: You had a significant amount of real estate experience with renters and stuff like that.
- 29:20SPEAKER_03: I mean, if you have multiple rent houses, you're capable of stepping into multifamily, but a lot of what we're talking about where it gets real scary, it's some guy that's never even owned a rental house, you know, or or their own house for that matter, you know, and they think they can just because they can raise money, they're cut out to be a sponsor and all that.
- 29:40SPEAKER_00: So I I have met people had like zero real estate experience other than they have like a real estate degree.
- 29:49SPEAKER_00: They did business and real estate or something in college, and they that's all the experience they have.
- 29:54SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's better than nothing.
- 29:56SPEAKER_00: Um, but also Angel and I, we signed up with our sponsor in 2019, or not a sponsor, our mentor.
- 30:04SPEAKER_00: We actually do have a mentor, uh Joe Fair, Joe Fairless.
- 30:08SPEAKER_00: He's got almost three billion in assets under management.
- 30:11SPEAKER_00: Wow, we've been working with him since 2019, and so we didn't even get our first deal until 2021.
- 30:18SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, there are ways to do it, but we could not have done it if we didn't have our our mentorship with him.
- 30:25SPEAKER_03: So yeah, to kind of show you the way and all that.
- 30:29SPEAKER_03: So um, let me ask you this.
- 30:31SPEAKER_03: This is kind of outside of underwriting, but you know, how do you feel about where multifamilies are headed?
- 30:39SPEAKER_03: I kind of feel like we're gonna start seeing some deals pop up as um you know the debt wall comes to fruition or whatever you want to call it.
- 30:49SPEAKER_03: And I see a little bit of a price reset and a comeback at some point, you know.
- 30:55SPEAKER_00: Um so so so there are a lot of foreclosures happening.
- 30:59SPEAKER_00: Um, they started the last couple years and they're still going.
- 31:03SPEAKER_00: Um yeah.
- 31:04SPEAKER_00: It's a slow trickle, not a crash, but yeah, but now what I've also seen is lenders don't want to own property, so they are holding on to them, working with the properties themselves, trying everything they can to keep the current ownership so that they don't have to take it.
- 31:25SPEAKER_00: So they're doing loan mods, they're doing all sorts of different things to help the owners so that they don't do it.
- 31:33SPEAKER_00: Um I have seen that firsthand where it's like there's a distressed property, they're you they're barely making their debt service.
- 31:45SPEAKER_00: Their DSCR might be like one, and that's a debt service coverage ratio, which is your NOI over your debt service.
- 31:53SPEAKER_00: It's like one, so it's like there's no wiggle room.
- 31:57SPEAKER_00: If anything happens, like it's dropping below one, and there's a chance you won't be able to make your debt service.
- 32:04SPEAKER_00: Yeah, is usually against your loan covenants, and they could foreclose on you if they wanted to, because a lot of times you have at least a minimum DSCR requirement of like 1.25, sometimes 1.4, depending on your market.
- 32:19SPEAKER_00: But they're relaxing some of those because they don't want to uh to see things go into foreclosure because there's so much going in right now.
- 32:27SPEAKER_03: So yeah, I'm kind of curious to see if some of those pop out.
- 32:31SPEAKER_03: You know, we just had the quarter point increase in rates.
- 32:34SPEAKER_03: It's like, okay, some people act like it's a big it's a big deal, some say it's not, and I say it is a big deal depending on the property.
- 32:42SPEAKER_03: I mean, if it's a significant amount of money, you know, if you're underwriting a property or trying to sell right now, and a quarter point can mean the difference in a deal or foreclosure or a lot of things.
- 32:54SPEAKER_03: So it's consequential to an extent, you know.
- 32:57SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it is it is hard.
- 32:59SPEAKER_00: Um, the interest rates climbing are gonna affect your cap rates, they're gonna be climbing, and that drops your valuation of your property, whether it's for a sale or for a refinance, and so that is a difficult position.
- 33:14SPEAKER_00: Um, and and you we will start seeing more and more come on.
- 33:20SPEAKER_00: People might be taking a haircut on a property.
- 33:23SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, because I mean we went for a refi on one of our properties last year and say we owed four million on it.
- 33:33SPEAKER_00: Yeah, um uh 3.9 million.
- 33:38SPEAKER_00: We were getting loan quotes for three and a half.
- 33:41SPEAKER_00: It's like if we went refi with those, we would have to come out of our pocket half a million dollars for closing costs and and um capital reserves and stuff like that.
- 33:52SPEAKER_00: It's like we didn't want to have to go to our investors and say, hey, we need more money just so we can refi.
- 33:58SPEAKER_00: Luckily, we were able to find a loan product that gave us enough proceeds that we didn't have to come out or go do a capital call.
- 34:08SPEAKER_00: It was more or less a cash neutral.
- 34:11SPEAKER_00: Um or what we were at, what we did have to put up, we had in reserves already, so we didn't have to go out of pocket on our own.
- 34:20SPEAKER_00: So I mean, so there are there are loan products out there.
- 34:25SPEAKER_00: If you need it, you need a good loan.
- 34:28SPEAKER_03: Um you gotta leave a little m meat on the bone.
- 34:32SPEAKER_03: You can't give anybody's name.
- 34:33SPEAKER_03: That's the reason to have you as a coach is you can hook them up with all those referrals and stuff like that.
- 34:39SPEAKER_03: Let's pick back up and I think um, you know, just discuss, you know, that you're a veteran real estate guy, you know, you keep people out of trouble.
- 34:49SPEAKER_03: Jason, I think uh what you're getting at is, you know, real estate's a patience game.
- 34:53SPEAKER_03: You know, rates are gonna go up and down, you know, um, underwriting the deal, a lot of these experiences you're talking about with the bank and the refinance, you know, a veteran like you that's seen the ups and downs is gonna be able to coach people through that and all that.
- 35:09SPEAKER_03: So um, you know, that's that's great experience.
- 35:13SPEAKER_00: So so so one saying that um my my co-hosts on my podcast and I say a lot of times is it's not timing real estate, it's time in real estate.
- 35:25SPEAKER_00: Um because my wife's grandparents, they got into real estate in the late 70s, early 80s, and interest rates there were double digits, I think even approaching like 20%, but they were still able to get into real estate back then and do it successfully.
- 35:44SPEAKER_00: So what I tell people is it doesn't matter if rates are going up or down, the and this is for like acquisition underwriting to make sure you can buy something, so long as you have an accurate loan product, like like a an accurate interest rate uh and loan terms, you can put it in and then you can see if your deal makes sense that way.
- 36:10SPEAKER_00: Um if you if you're if you're going in saying, well, I think we can get we well, we were promised a five percent interest rate, and it's like, are you sure?
- 36:20SPEAKER_00: I want to see the loan quote on that because that is not realistic right now, or it it is probably very difficult to get right now since interest rates are still climbing, and I heard that they're expected to climb even more.
- 36:36SPEAKER_00: Um so you just need to make sure that you are using the most accurate information you have, and if you're gonna put in a refi into your underwriting, which I don't suggest you do, nobody has a crystal ball in seeing what interest rates are gonna be in like two to three years from now when you would do a refi.
- 36:55SPEAKER_03: So the refi assumption is almost a mistake because you're almost saying that you have to have interest rates to go down for your investors to make money, you know.
- 37:04SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so if you build it in there, you're like, well, this deal doesn't make sense without a refi, you know.
- 37:09SPEAKER_03: So the the real return's ten percent if we can't refinance, you know, versus twenty.
- 37:14SPEAKER_03: So, you know.
- 37:16SPEAKER_00: So and what gets people though is sometimes you have to put in a refi.
- 37:23SPEAKER_00: Because what if all of your loans you yeah, you want to go in with agency loan from the get-go, but what if agency falls through and you have to do a two-year bridge loan, but you're planning on holding this property for five years, you have better put in a refi of some sort whenever your bridge loan is over, otherwise it's like your hold period is gonna be when the bridge loan is over.
- 37:46SPEAKER_03: So, yeah, well, yeah, and something like that, but if it's like stabilized, it's different, you know.
- 37:52SPEAKER_03: But if you have like a especially when you get into construction and stuff like that, but yeah.
- 37:57SPEAKER_03: Some refies, it's you gotta do that.
- 38:00SPEAKER_03: So, Jason, what so when you bring in what's your typical student look like?
- 38:05SPEAKER_03: Is it somebody that's coming from corporate America or is it somebody that's just a young entrepreneur coming out of single family houses or both, or what does that look like?
- 38:16SPEAKER_00: Um actually I've had loan brokers come to me, um, lenders.
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: I've had actually multifamily brokers come to me as well.
- 38:28SPEAKER_00: They just want to hone their underwriting skills, so I guess they could be more important in their the brokerage firm.
- 38:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 38:35SPEAKER_00: Um, but a lot of it is I've had people come to me who are just wanting to get into real estate.
- 38:43SPEAKER_00: They might have signed up with a guru and they decided that their underwriting education was not all it was cracked up to be.
- 38:51SPEAKER_00: Maybe some other sp aspects of that education were good, like your capital raising or your asset management or something like that was good.
- 38:59SPEAKER_00: Or maybe even your deal sourcing, but the underwriting was lacking, so they would come to me.
- 39:05SPEAKER_00: Um, generally speaking, I've had people who have had other programs and then they would come to me for like further education.
- 39:16SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 39:16SPEAKER_03: I think one thing like uh listeners need to understand is it's not just for beginners.
- 39:22SPEAKER_03: Even like some of the best apartment owners that I know that own thousands of units, they still want to hone their underwriting skills.
- 39:30SPEAKER_03: Like we said, you can't underwrite everything.
- 39:33SPEAKER_03: And even if you have an underwriting coach, you know, there's so much you can learn from the different experiences.
- 39:39SPEAKER_03: And I know people that have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on different underwriting coaches because they're the acquisitions they make are so important.
- 39:48SPEAKER_03: So people that it's kind of like a golfer is going to have, you know, different coaches for different parts of their, you know, regimen from you know their diet to their training to their swing to everything.
- 40:00SPEAKER_03: You know, it's it's one of those where people that are like playing in the major leagues, similar to your your mentor, uh Joe, that are billions in assets still have people help them underwrite.
- 40:14SPEAKER_03: So, but also you're available for beginner students that want to get started.
- 40:20SPEAKER_00: So, you know, and and I have a lot of free resources out there for a beginner who may not have the capital to invest in a coach.
- 40:31SPEAKER_00: Um, like I have my podcast that we mentioned, I have um all my free resources on my website and everything else, too.
- 40:40SPEAKER_00: So people can go to ironcladunderwriting.com and they can get as much information they want there.
- 40:46SPEAKER_00: I have buy or semi-monthly newsletters go out.
- 40:50SPEAKER_03: So what so if somebody joins like your capital raising program, how how does that look?
- 40:56SPEAKER_03: Is it like a month long, two months long, or is it just kind of ongoing?
- 41:01SPEAKER_00: Well, I don't have a capital raising program, it's underwriting.
- 41:04SPEAKER_03: I'm sorry, I said capital underwriting.
- 41:06SPEAKER_03: I'm sorry, man.
- 41:08SPEAKER_00: Um I it originally started out as like a 12-month, not a 12-month, a 12-week program.
- 41:15SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 41:17SPEAKER_00: It ended up being on average about 15 weeks, and that's when my course was like working with my Excel models that I was doing.
- 41:26SPEAKER_00: But I have now created an online web model that we would be using, which makes it a whole lot even simpler than the Excel version.
- 41:35unknown: Yeah.
- 41:36SPEAKER_00: Because now you can take your OM, your rentroll, and your T12, upload it to my web service, and it'll populate most of the underwriting for you already.
- 41:47SPEAKER_00: And then you can go in and fine-tune like your capital or your capital expense budget.
- 41:53SPEAKER_00: Um, you can go and fine-tune what your pro forma values would be.
- 41:58SPEAKER_00: Um put in your loan parameters, and then you can start messing around with like sensitivity analyses to see, all right, well, what happens if our interest rate is this?
- 42:08SPEAKER_00: What happens if it's this?
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: And what happens if we have a rate cap and it expires in this month or this month or this month?
- 42:16SPEAKER_00: Um, and then it'll it'll go through um show you all the return metrics for all of that.
- 42:21SPEAKER_00: So um I don't so it's probably still gonna be about a 12-week program with with uh with a new web app that I don't know.
- 42:32SPEAKER_03: With human touch, there's a lot of tools that have made it faster, but the real world experience that you bring and you know all the years of dealing with tenants, property managers, and all that that can't be taught in a two-second upload into chat GPT.
- 42:50SPEAKER_03: Chat GBT can get you into trouble, you know.
- 42:53SPEAKER_00: So uh I have seen people take a rent roll OM and a T12, upload it to Chat GPT, and Chat GPT will give you a valuation on what you should submit an LOI for.
- 43:05SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 43:05SPEAKER_00: It does not, it does not export any of the underwriting.
- 43:08SPEAKER_00: You can't go through any of the numbers.
- 43:11SPEAKER_00: Um, and and one thing is when you are looking for loans, you have to submit your underwriting to the lender so that they can see what you're saying, and then they also want to do their own underwriting so that they can compare the two to make sure that you're on the same page.
- 43:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 43:29SPEAKER_03: It's it's gotta be thorough, you know.
- 43:31SPEAKER_03: And then if you send something over from Chat GBT and it's full of errors, they're gonna be like, get the hell out of here.
- 43:37SPEAKER_03: You know, they're they're gonna know it.
- 43:39SPEAKER_00: So so while my web app does use AI, it parses the data.
- 43:45SPEAKER_00: AI does not calculate anything.
- 43:47SPEAKER_00: All my calculations are based on industry standard.
- 43:51SPEAKER_00: Um there's like ILPA standards, which is the International Limited Partner Association, so that all my waterfall calculations.
- 44:00SPEAKER_00: calculations are proper.
- 44:01SPEAKER_00: Um so that's how Ironclad My Web App does it.
- 44:05SPEAKER_00: So AI does not touch the calculations but it does a lot of the manual tasks for you so you don't have to so the person doesn't have to do it themselves.
- 44:13SPEAKER_03: So yeah.
- 44:14SPEAKER_03: I had a deal recently fall through from a residential agent using ChatGBT for like a due diligence checklist.
- 44:21SPEAKER_03: And they're on there like asking for personal tax returns on a commercial property.
- 44:27SPEAKER_03: And I'm just like we can verify that.
- 44:30SPEAKER_03: I mean if you go through like and this is I'm not trying to play accountant or CPA but if you look at like the generally accepted accounting practices the real way to audit financials is through the financial statements.
- 44:43SPEAKER_03: So that you could do it through bank statements even r with redacted.
- 44:47SPEAKER_03: Part of the problem is a lot of owners don't even have their taxes for that current year filed.
- 44:52SPEAKER_03: They're you know they're if they own multiple properties their CPA is probably backed up.
- 44:57SPEAKER_03: You know that's a that's a different story but that's just an example of how chat GBT can kind of get you in a situation.
- 45:04SPEAKER_03: It can guide give high level checklists but the human at the end of it has to go through it.
- 45:10SPEAKER_03: Like you know the AI can organize your underwriting but it's not going to give you the answers and like really give you clarity like a coach like you can.
- 45:20SPEAKER_03: You know I think I think AI is dangerous because it gives people the assumption that it makes some things easier that should it's great that that it makes it easier like creating an image but some things it's it's nothing you need to be using for, you know.
- 45:36SPEAKER_00: Yeah so some some I do use AI a lot.
- 45:39SPEAKER_00: I have agents go in and they give me it pulls all my uh my reports for each of my properties and it uploads them to a Google sheet.
- 45:48SPEAKER_00: And I I had to fight with AI is like you are not an accountant I do not want you calculating anything.
- 45:55SPEAKER_00: I want you to pull the numbers straight from the report and populate it.
- 46:00SPEAKER_00: I no calculating anything on your end because it it thinks it's an accountant.
- 46:05SPEAKER_00: It says well this is and and then it's like well where are these numbers coming from oh you're right that one's wrong and then you go in and it's like oh you're right that one's wrong.
- 46:13SPEAKER_03: Well sometimes sometimes it'll say good catch and I and it's like what you're saying you have to go and look at those numbers because I was reconciling a PL last night for a property and I was like NOIs off and then I was like oh I forgot to add back the loan it wasn't off but there you have to review it.
- 46:30SPEAKER_03: You can't just pump it out there and it'd be wrong.
- 46:32SPEAKER_03: So potential buyer or investor or the bank or it doesn't matter who it is in real estate you need to review it before it goes in front of them.
- 46:40SPEAKER_03: So you know or or you could be embarrassed so so what's the uh best way to connect with Jason and uh get in touch and kind of discuss their situation and what they're looking to do and accomplish you know join join your uh program so yeah so I can be found on LinkedIn um my name is Jason Williams PhD on LinkedIn can look me up look me up there I I am receptive to DMs just don't try to spam me or sell me anything because then I won't respond.
- 47:14SPEAKER_00: But you can also go to Ironcladunderwriting.com and like I said I have a lot of free resources there.
- 47:21SPEAKER_00: I have my podcast I have my newsletter I have my vault which has all my tools in it like a due diligence checklist um I have an LOI generator if if you need if you don't have your own LOI template I have one for that.
- 47:38SPEAKER_00: See what else do I have?
- 47:39SPEAKER_00: I have an underwriting checklist to go through all the processes of of how to do it.
- 47:44SPEAKER_00: So I I can be everything is there.
- 47:47SPEAKER_00: I also have a YouTube channel um ironcladunderwriting.com so I can be found pretty much all over with Ironclad Underwriting.
- 47:55SPEAKER_03: Awesome man well um we appreciate you coming on and um we look forward to uh watching your journey and all that and you know you're doing a lot of good things keeping investors out of trouble is what you do.
- 48:08SPEAKER_03: So um try trying to try and get them try and bring clarity to the numbers and real real world um you know experience to the numbers behind it.
- 48:18SPEAKER_03: So we appreciate you coming on Jason and uh look forward to staying in touch with you man.
- 48:23SPEAKER_00: So thanks for having me I appreciate it.
- 48:25SPEAKER_00: I had fun awesome man