Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets for NFL Week 1

Transcript

Best Bets for NFL Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noelman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: We are a company media company, sports betting media company
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: that focuses on sports betting, news, information analysis, how markets
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: are moving, what games are priced at all over the country,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: at every sports book. But we do love our friends
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: at FanDuel. I am joined twice a week by my partner,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: my brother. You're there. I thought you're gonna keep going.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: You're firing away, Chad, So I just let let you
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: go on your role, you know to what That's what
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I do here. I'll let you do. It's true, and
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I never know when I'm going to stop. But I
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: do want to reiterate we have so many new listeners
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: because of the partnership that Action has with Colin Cowherd
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: and the Volume Podcast Network. I do feel like we
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: need to for a few weeks continue to introduce ourselves,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: remind people of who we are, what we do. You
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: are a professional better. I know a little bit about
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: betting from having covered this world for twenty years, especially
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: as immersively as I have at the Action Network since
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: we launched in January of two eighteen. UM, we've got
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: a variety of analysts, a variety of reporters, a variety
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: of experts. UH, you and I do this twice a
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: week during the football season. On Tuesday, we are going
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: through every single game on the NFL slate sides totals
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: things that we like. We are trying to narrow it
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: down on Thursdays, five picks that we love that we
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: may or may not put into an unnamed contest. Um,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: but at the very least, it's five picks that listeners
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: can feel really good about heading into the weekend. A reminder,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: we will track all of the picks that we make
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. It's free, it's award winning.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Download it. You can follow me, you can follow Simon.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: You'll be able to see what picks we're making on
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning, because that's when we'll lock everything in, because
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: that's when lines have moved and we've seen the best advantages, etcetera. UM,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So you'll be able to see that. But we'll be
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: doing this Tuesdays and Thursdays, and then on Fridays, I
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: will be doing a podcast with Signed with Colin in
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: which he's given me five picks he loves and I'm
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: telling him when he's wrong. Um, it's pretty amazing stuff, Simon. Today,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: we're gonna come up with a Survivor pick. We're gonna
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: nail down our final five in theory. We're gonna do
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: some money line parlays. We're gonna offer up another review
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: at the end of the show, Matt Mitchell. Are we
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: gonna do that? Yes? Will be more to enter into
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the running for the Play of the Year from Simon. Yes,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: we'll do that. We'll do a big balls better the week.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: We'll do a hornets Nest bet. I'm walking to a
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest. All right, now, be my companion. I
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: need you to make me, help them be jealous of me.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: But there's already been like this is why it's valuable
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: doing the show twice a week. On Tuesday, we had
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of ideas. As you noted, Simon, you are
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: very deep in the professional betting business. You have a
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: lot of contacts, a lot of people listen to the show.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: You mentioned on Tuesday, you will talk about games on
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: the show, and then you will get people texting you
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: being that's crazy you're wrong. That's already happened. Uh one
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: game in particular I want to talk about, which I've
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: already bet. You can see it in the app. I
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: wish we had a conversation before I did that. Giants
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Broncos under we loved on Tuesday. You're getting a lot
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: of blowback about it today. Yeah, it's just tough because
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I like the whole theory behind it, where you have
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: two of the top five defenses in the league with
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: two quarterbacks that are kind of the mix. So it
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: sounds like a sound play on paper. But I guess
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys think the lines moved too much.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: A lot of people have this at forty and their system,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and it's down to forty one in some books, So
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: people over adjusted at this point, and too much money
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: is coming on the under, so it seems like the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: advantage now it's towards you over. So I was gonna
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: bet pretty heavily on this under, and I'm either just
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: gonna stay away or I'll just take the over um
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: closer to game time, hope it goes you and lower. Basically,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the theory you're referring to, you gotta get the best
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: of the number right, that's not always the biggest deal
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: because again, this is Week one. A lot of these
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: numbers have been hit by professionals for the last three
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: or four months. Again, things are gonna be a lot
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: different in a couple of weeks because that's when the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: lines are gonna get a lot smarter and uh, just
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: more advantage. Where these early weeks here like, yeah, I
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: feel confident about a lot of these bets, but again,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: it's so fluky. Week one we talked about all the time.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: The Jaguars won one game last year and it was
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Week one they won. They beat the Colts, who are
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a playoff team. So it's just one of these things
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: where week when I like to bet on the weird
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: stuff to happen, and it tends to work out for me.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So that's again, that's what a lot of stuff we're
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: doing this week. We're we're big dog betters. We're gonna
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: be taking a lot of underdogs this week. So that's
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: that's just the way it's gonna be. I will look
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: this morning, I slapped you and Matt Mitchell are producer
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: the twelve Sides and Totals bets I was making. I
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: also slapped you the money line parlay bets I was making,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: which we're going to discuss today. Here's my question. I
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: slapped you at like I don't know, nine the fucking
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Giants and broncos Under was on that list, and and
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: your response was a little bit of a heart. You
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: gave me a little heart like an emoji, meaning like,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: all right, he must still love all these Honestly, I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: equally eyes with your chat. I didn't even started. I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: didn't go through all of them. I saw how it started,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: and I realized it was just all the bets we
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: talked about. So I just let it go. Um, that's
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: on me. Yeah, I'm having a lot of calls and
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: text this morning. Chat are your immediate superstar. It happens.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: It's this week though. If I say we go and five,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: people are gonna leave me alone. Um. And if I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: go five and oh, I'm gonna hold out for a
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: new contracts. So it's exciting to see what happens after
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: this weekend. Joined the club. Brother, We're all all of
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: us are always on a permanent hold up. We always
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: deserve more money. Um, that's fine, Listen, You've you've done
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: so much for me in my life already that if
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I lose one game because you weren't paying attention. That's
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: totally fine. Um. I did talk to a buddy last night. Uh,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: my buddy Matt, who are a lot of people who
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: listen to the podcast for the past few years. No,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who we went in. We bet all
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty six games a couple. Is it
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: to fifty six to six? Yeah? It wasn't last year's
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: the year before, two years ago. Um, but every single
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: game in the NFL we want a significant amount of money.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Felt great. Blew it all on a massive sushi dinner.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Uh in early in New York, which turns out, uh
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: was one of the last times you could go out
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: in the city. And that you know, he's in San Francisco.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: I was in New York. We went out together. Um
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: last night we're talking about sort of betting for the year,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and it's so funny. You know, he is a high
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: powered executive in the tech space. He's done very well
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: for himself, beautiful family, beautiful wife, beautiful home in the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Bay Area, and we were talking about how much money, Like,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: did he want to go in with me? If I'm
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: going to make these best this year? Did he want
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: to go in, we'd go fifty, and he's like, it's
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: so much to risk. I'm like, dude, getting married as
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: a risk, having kids is a risk. Leaving your job
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: as a lawyer in Chicago to go work at a
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: startup in say Francisco, across the country is a risk.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Taking the jobs you've taken is a risk. Give me
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit of scratch so we can bet on
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: these games together. It's not a risk. But it's so
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: funny how people think about risks. Right, Betting the cash
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: component of it is a risk. I argue that we
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: all take bigger risks every day doing what we do
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: in our lives and putting a little money down on
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: NFL games. And it's definitely one of those stigma things
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: where it's like he just knows the thing where he's
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: like he feels like everyone else where. It's like no
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: one ever wins in the sports betting thing. So that's
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: probably where he's coming from. But simon, we do we do,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Like that's my job here. I'm just trying to change
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: bull re views. It's like, even though I was talking
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: to a buddy about this week one, um, even if
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I go over five, I'm not gonna hear a peep
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: from any of my clients the next week. They're gonna
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: still be right back there with me betting on whatever
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I do here. Yeah, we might a leave of our
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: fans after one week here. I kind of want people
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: to understand it's just Evan flows, that's it's just the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: way that sports betting is that we're me and Chat
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna go five and over a week. I think
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: we have five and three times last year, which for
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: us was a huge deal. That's the reason we finished
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: in the top twenty four. So it's always the goal.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: But three and two here, if we keep we if
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: we give out a couple of money line dogs, that's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: that's a really profitable year here. So as always the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: goal for us, that shore will be Uh, Matt, my buddy,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Matt is texting me no joke as we speak. It's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: the second week in a row that I'm talking about
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: him on the podcast and he's texting me. At the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: same time. He says hello to everybody. I agree with you.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: We got to go three and two every week. That's
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: how we win fans, it's how we win friends, it's
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: how we win money. You slacked me early this morning,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: let me recap what we did so last week. We
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: talked about every game and at the end of it,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: we circle a handful of games that we felt strongly
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: about that we knew we were going to want to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: discuss today. To narrow down our list of five, we
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: loved Washington football team plus one against the light Chargers
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: at home. We love the Texans plus two and a
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: half against Jacksonville at home. That game is now up
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: to three. We love Pittsburgh at plus six and a
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: half on the road of Buffalo, Detroit plus seven and
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: a half at home against San Francisco. Uh we circled
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Kansas City minus six and a half as a question mark.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We circled Green Bay and minus four as a question mark.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: And you slapped me and Matt Mitchell this morning with
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: a picture of the games that you were listening for
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: us so far, and it included, um, Pittsburgh, still Detroit, still,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Washington football team still in Cincinnati. Yeah, where did that
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: come from? Uh? So, what I like to do when
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I do these things, it's like I try to go
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: with just right when I wake up. I checked these
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: lines right when they where whenever they added to the contest,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: and I just put the first five in without even
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: like checking any of my notes, without even thinking. I
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: just think we're the best looking ends for value. And
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: then I'm gonna go back and obviously update it and
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: keep going through it and check it before you send
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: out what we're gonna do on Sunday. That's just a
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: good number. I mean, we talked about I like the
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: three and a half with since, but that's gonna be
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the first one we're gonna drop, Like I'm already already
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: dropped them since I sent that picture. Um So that
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: was one of those where I just like the value.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: And the reason Houston didn't make the cut for us
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: is I told you I want that three. It's two
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. So that's one of
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: these things where again I'm not trying to beat the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: dead horse here, but mean, Chad, we do we do
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: care about the number. I mean, it's there's a big
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: difference between three and just you know, two and a half.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: We we pushed I think four times last year, and
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: again that's the reason we finished where we did. So
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: we're always trying to get the best of the number
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: because it does come in where it matters a lot.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Especially in this contest with so much movement before the
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: game's kick off. So from me chat right now, we
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: dropped since and we're looking about adding minus two and
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a half Denver, which is one of the chalkiest plays
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: of the week. But again it's under three. That's a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: good number for this Denver team. Break it down for me.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Why do you think so other than Teddy Covers, I
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: mean Teddy on the road, it's been good to me.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I think he's eighteen and four. I'll have to look.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I know. Um that's Lab. That's where I go for
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: all these numbers. Are our friendly company here. Yeah, we
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: love that Labs. Go check it out. It's got like Las,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: it's got. It's got, no joke, millions and millions of
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: data points that track information from a betting point of
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: view going back more than twenty years. So when Simon
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: talks about Teddy Covers, Teddy Bridgewater is eighteen and four
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: in this spot. He's able to go back and look
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: at every game against the spread that Teddy Bridgewater has
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: ever played on the road as a starter as a
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: short favorite. I can tell you that in twenty two
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: games at this number, he's covered eighteen. He's eighteen and four,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: and that's one he's looking at where like, I understand
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: what people are saying. Now this is a very cha play,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: but that's what like again, Me and you talk all
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the time. There's there's sometimes you want to be sharp,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: and there's sometimes you don't really overthink this. And if
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I think this line should be three and it's two
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and a half, you take Denver there. It's just a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: really good number, especially in the fact that all the
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: question marks with the Giants we don't know well at QUM,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: we don't know if he's a cent. We already know
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: that old line has a bunch of issues. It just
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: feels like Denver in this first game is just a
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: smart player. It's such a small number. I hate this game.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: I can't believe we're falling but not I mean, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: just hate it. We are falling back into the bad
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: habits we made last year. And it also goes against
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: our principles in that we are betting on a like
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: By the way, I've been a much bigger fan of
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the Broncos the entire preseason than you have, and and
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: touting Teddy Bridgewater is going to be the starter, and
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be good for that team. But do I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: want a mediocre team on the road as a favorite it?
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? That's that goes against
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: everything we believe in. They're not mediocre though, that's the problem.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, Teddy Bridgewater is, but the rest of that team,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: like Jerry Judy Sutton, no of fan. I mean, they
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: got weapons on all offense and their defense is legit
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: top five in the league. So it's one of these
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: things where I'm down on Denver. But I I had
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: them starting the year two and no I have them
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: winning this game. I haven't winn next week against Jaguars.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: So again, I just think that's a fair number that
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: at minus two. Of course, yead I wish it was
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: still plus one or pick that's what it was before
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Teddy was named the starter. But I just think we're
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: still getting fair value here. Again, we we have three
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: dogs right now. We have Detroit as a dog. We
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: have Pittsburgh as a dog team the football team. So
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: we did this last year. We like going three dogs
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: and two favorites. I know green Bay is incredibly chalky.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, as soon as we got I would say
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: we put our show at like five o'clock said, by
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: seven o'clock, I had at least five emails yelling at
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: me about taking Green Bay against the Saints. So it's
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: one of the these things where the pros think green
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Bay is being incredibly overvalued, that the Saints are gonna
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: run it all over green Bay's terrible run defense, and
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to keep this game close and
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: keep it, you know, under four points. Where I look
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: at this game and we've talked about it, I don't
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: understand how moving from the home field Superdome but their
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: home crowd indoors to an outdoor stadium is beneficial to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the Saints team. It's one of these things where I
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: don't want to really understand how Len moved one point
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: five points. I guess it's because again the books are
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: scared of professionals, and the professionals think they have a
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: good number here. But to me, I had this up
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: at six now, So again I think we're getting a
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: really good number here with green Bay. And I still
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: think people are a little bit a little bit too
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: down on green Bay, where they think because they're alignes
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: on and because Aaron Rodgers was holding out, and maybe
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: there's some bad you do there it's it's just one
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: of the things they are physic. People were thinking it's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Aaron rodgers Worth. Jamis wins to on a neutral field.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: And you can talk all you want about green Bay.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: They're one of the top three teams NFC. So it's
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: just interesting where I think the professionals are thinking that
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: green Bay can be run on. Jamis wints gonna make
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: one or two plays to keep this getting close. Why
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I just look at the other way where I just
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a complete blow out and
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the books are just gonna take a loss year. Well,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: they'll get it back in other games. So this is fascinating.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: You get a lot of feedback on the Giants and
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Broncos total that we talked about on Tuesday. We decided
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: that the best of the number is lost. It had
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: been at forty five. At forty two, it's too low
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: to make any younger bets on it. Uh, Packards and Saints.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: You are at this point. I've listened to a lot
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: of Action Network experts talk about this game, liking the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Saints for a variety of reasons. You've been getting feedback
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: from your sports betting wise guy colleagues that they like
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the Saints, and you are stand ending firm that you
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: like the Packers at minus four based on your number,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: you think everybody else is wrong. This is fun. This
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: is why sports betting is the best and why I
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: love sports bettors. They are the cockiest motherfucker's in the world.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: They truly believe in their number, They truly believe in
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: their system. It's why sports bettors get into this space.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: They can't make it in a world where they have
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: to be reporting to somebody else where, they have to
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: be taking direction from somebody else. They so firmly believe
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: in their own skill set, in their own ability, and
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: their own brilliance. It's amazing. So I'm pretty I'm pretty
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: bad though, because I'm just so agreeable. So if these
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: guys calling me up or they're saying any of this stuff,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: I just let them say what they gotta say. I'm
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: just like, yeah, yeah, I like I hear you. But
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: it's just different. We're Week one. I don't really take
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: them as serious. But again, if this was week six
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: or seven and these same guys are hitting me up, Chad,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: we we'll be switching this bet. Because it's just one
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: of the things where I'm gonna trust my own number
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: early on and let the people build up more data
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: as this season goes along. Where it's like, I think
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: people overvalue too much of what happened last year and
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: just looking at what's going to happen this upcoming season. Alright,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: So you're telling me right now that Packers minus four
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: over Saints will end up being one of our at
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: the end of this podcast, is going to be one
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: of our top five picks. So that will be the
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: fourth pick along with Pittsburgh plus six and a half,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Detroit plus seven, and hash Washington Football team plus one
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: we are watching unless we find two chalk we like better.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: It's just I like going a couple of chalk in
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: this thing, because, like we talked all the time, the
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: public they win sometimes at the time the public is
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: gonna win their bets. So that's what I'm trying to
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: do a balancing act here with I'm trying to take
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: sharp numbers, but I'm also trying to take some public
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: numbers here. So well, look, another game that moved that
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: we talked about, um uh the other day was Carolina
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: at the Jets, and that number was it five Jets
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: plus five. The other day, you said at that number,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you might have to take the Jets. It's now down
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: to four Panthers minus four. I went in on the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Panthers at minus four this morning based on what we
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: talked about the other day. Why wouldn't we do that?
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Like the Panthers defense is improved. I'm not a big
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: believer in the Jets. The theory that we have about
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: rookie coach, rookie quarterback going on the road for Trevor
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Lawrence and Urban Meyer applies to Robert Sala and Zack Wilson.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Obviously they're not favorites. They're underdogs vice versas true for
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But everything about the Panthers quarterback who is
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: in a better position, coach, who has proven it, defense
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: that has improved, it feels like a Panther's Panthers beat
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: to me, why aren't we putting that one in saving
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: our unnamed contest? It's it's five and a half. Oh god,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: that's terrible, And then we're not putting the Jets. And um,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I told you on our fictional show that I like
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: the over in this game. I like Caroline at the four.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I think that's what the number should be. But I
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: don't want to put a lot of money on that.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I'd rather just take the over and just think that
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: both these offenses can score a high rate. So for me,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: that's one of those where I do like the four.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: I think it's a fair number, but it won't be
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: one of our five because we're not getting that value
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: in the contest. All right, Well, that reminds me, I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: gotta bet the Panthers Jets over over their total right now,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: which forty four and a half. Wow, it's gone up
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: a little four and a half of vandel Right now,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: you've just referenced our fictional show. I should say, we
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: do a show every Sunday me during the football season.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: It's me, It's Simon Hunter at Sean Kerner, It's Chris
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Raybond and Samantha Pavidi for fantasy, Dann Revel on the
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: news desk. It's called Convinced Me. It's on at Action
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Network h Q Sunday mornings at eleven, best pregame show
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: for the NFL. Bar none, no fluff, no sentiment, just
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: stuff that you need to get ready for fantasy, to
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: get ready for betting, to make good picks. Check it out,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: all right, So if we're looking are we Are we
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: looking for more chalk at this point? If we have
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: four that we like, are we looking for more chalk?
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, my favorite chalk is that it is the
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Green Bay in Denver, Right, so we got that Denver
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: talked about Chris and stuck. You how they talked to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: how much they love New England. I've had a couple
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: of professionals reach out to me they love that one
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: as well. You just know how I feel about rookie
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks chat. I just I hate doing it. I hate
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: taking rookies as favorites. And the fact that he's the
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: weapons they have against this Miami defense. It's just gonna
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: be so interesting to see if they can really, you know,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick can really upstage his Miami team, because I
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: told you Miami is that sleeper team I have this year.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: They're one of my favorite teams coming to the season.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: So I can't I can't let us take New England.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: I have to stay what my my vision was for this.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: This Miami team, I think too it takes that next step,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: So I gotta stay away from this Patios one. So
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: there's not many short favorites that we're gonna find that
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna love chat. I'll be honest, dude, I can't
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: fucking bet the Denver Broncos I can't. It's a it's terrible.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: That's a good number, though, I feel like through it.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I'm going through it. Let's see. By the way, I
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: just do want to say this. Uh, we refer to
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Stucky and Chris. Uh. That is, of course Stucky and
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, the analysts for the Action Network who do
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: their NFL betting preview episode every Thursday morning on the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. I got up extra early this morning
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: to listen to that, to prep for this show, to
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: prep for the day. It's it's fantastic. It's a great listen. Alright.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: So we like Green Bed We're going against everybody in
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the world. We are a kind of classs. I love
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: that about us. In fact, I'm gonna be getting close
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: to bedding Green Bay. I noticed that the line for
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: green Bay at FanDuel is now down to three and
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a half. No, it's gonna be one with classic either.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: I'm sharper than the sharp shedter math pie in my face,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: but I know the pros are gonna come in. All
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: these reasons to come in on the Saints, but I
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: can't do it, especially some of their logic where it's like,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: oh have you seen Aaron Rodgers last starts in Florida?
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, is that really what we're doing here?
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: So there's different things where it's just like I can't
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: listen to all the noise. That's why I try to
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: stay away from social media for football season because there's
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: just so much noise, or like it doesn't mess with
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: your head because it makes you question all your own thicks.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: So well, there's such a thing as splicing the pietoo
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: than right, like, at some point, like you can look
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: at every data set there is and find a reason
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: about one side or the other. So you go here. Principles.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Our principles tend to be we look for teams that
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: we think are undervalued in the market. We look for
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: teams that are home underdogs. And we're generally sticking to
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: those principles right now. Um, like, I legit can't find
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: you a favorite, chat, I'm trying really hard right now
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: to find you another favorite, So don't find me a favorite.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Let's find the fifth team that we I mean, we also,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: by the way, the other game that we haven't talked about.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Is Kansas City against Cleveland, which you were you were
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: very high on. Yeah, I still love it. Um, it's
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: just we're not getting a great line. I'm seeing it
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: at some books now it's down to five and a
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: half in our contest's minus six and a half. So
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: that's again, I'm just I'm just going off value where
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I actually think six and a half is still good
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: value for the Chiefs, But for our situation, we much
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: rather have that five and a half for exactly what
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: we've talked about before. You can't trust kickers anymore, so
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: that that's six can be a key number where I
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: feel much more comfortable taking five and a half. But
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I love the Chiefs chat. And if the Chiefs don't
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: cover this game, I feel like you're not gonna be
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: that pissed at me. But when Detroit loses by fifty points,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be like, dude, what the funk was that?
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: By the way, I will never be like I am
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: all over this Detroit game, I'm all over this Houston game.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I'm all over this action football team game. And now
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: a word from our friends at fan Duel. The NFL
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: is back and FanDuel sports Book wants you to get
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the most out of every game with same game parlays.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: One of the things I love about betting on football
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: is that I'm always finding new player or game props
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that I like. And what's cool about Fan Duel sports
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Book is you can combine these props with other bets
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: from the same game to score an even bigger payout.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: For Tonight's Thursday night football game, a same game parley
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I like is Tampa money Line and over fifty one
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and a half based on the information from my co
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: host Simon and our Action Network projectionists Master Sean Kroner.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: And with FanDuel, I get an easy to use app
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: and there's no feeling like nailing a same game parlay bet.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: So lock in your bet today on Fan Duels Sports Book,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: New de FanDuel Sports Book and Prefers. Single bets get
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: forty to one odds when you place your first wager
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: on any team to win during Week one. Sign up
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: with Promo Code Favorites. That's Promo Code Favorites must be
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Virginia, or West Virginia. New users only ten
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: dollar first deposit required, must wager in designated offer market
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: max bonus of two hundred dollars. Restrictions apply. See full
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: terms at sports book dot vanduel dot com. Gambling problem
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: slash r G in Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia one eight
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: hundred nine with it in Indiana. Visit one eight hundred
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: gambler dot nets in West Virginia or call one eight
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: hundred next step or text next step to five three
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: three two in Arizona. Let's get back to the show,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: all right, we've been bouncing around the board. I want
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: us to get to five solid picks that we feel
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: great about today Again, I will caveat These could change
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: and we will update on Sunday. We will send them out,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: we will put them in the app. We will add
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: notes to the app that indicate these are the ones
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: we love. These are contest worthy picks. But I still
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: wanted to get the survivor, and I still want us
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: to get the money line parlat So let's settle on
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: the five picks. We love the Washington football team, we
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: love Detroit, we love Pittsburgh, We're gonna lean towards Green Bay,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: which at FanDuel is now down to three and a half.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: You let's let's narrow it down. Let's make the choice
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: between Denver minus two and a half Kansas City minus
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: five and a half. If you're telling me those are
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: the two choices. I've got a team in Cleveland that
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: I think is already becoming overvalued. We've seen their Super
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Bowl odds skyrocket during the offseason. They are They're getting
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: way overhyped against a Super Bowl winning team from two
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: years ago, a super Bowl team from last year that
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: was missing its entire offensive line, that has the best
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: player in football according to the NFL Top one, has
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: a potential Hall of Fame career ahead of and the
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: line is moving in Cleveland's direction. Guy, don't tell me
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: I'm betting Teddy Bridgewater as a road favorite over Patrick
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Mahomes at home in September. I would say that that's
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the difference is Arrowhead. Arrowhead to me is a top
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: five stadium, especially at the fans. Let's go Chad. You
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: know I love the Chiefs. Bookmakers make traps for professionals.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: This feels like a trap game where they're trying to
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: get you to take Cleveland. They're trying to sucker people
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: in here and to buy into the hype, and I'm
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: trying to fade that noise. So again on your six
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: now five and a half. I love, love, love the Chiefs,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: and you Reid in September is on a streak. So
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: I told Chat, I'm putting a lot of Kansas City
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: chief money line into a lot of my two team parlays. Alright,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: So Chiefs minus five and a half, me and Simon
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: against the sports betting professional wise guy World Packers minus
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: three and a half, Washington football team plus one, Detroit
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, Pittsburgh plus six and a half.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: The only one we don't have in there right now
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: is the Texans, which are plus three. Fandal. We're gonna
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: keep waiting on that number and see where it ends up.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: But I do I do like the plus three, you know,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: I like that number. So I'm just going over all
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: those picks. I gotta say, is Pittsburgh are big balls
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: better the week? Chat? Big balls better the week that
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: that feels like a big balls bet. We're literally taking
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: a team everyone hates in Pittsburgh. All you hear about
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: how old Ben Roethlisberg is how bad this old line
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: is playing against everyone's favorite team, the Sweethearts to the NFL.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Everyone's all in on Josh Allen m v P. Everyone's
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: all in on the over of the Bills win total
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half twelve, everyone's all in on them.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: One of the division, they have them coming in second
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: or winning the the the a f C. It's I
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: do like the Bills. I think they're a good team.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: But regression is the name of the game. So this
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: is a trip up spot here. So big ball is
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: better than week plus six and a half. Give me
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh chat. Also, I think I know what our hornets
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Nest game is. It's got to be the Packers and
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: the Saints because it's you and me walking into a
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: goddamn hornets nest against the rest of the sports betting world. Yeah,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest all right now'll
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: be my companion on all of our colleagues. Everyone we
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: know is gonna be on the Saints, and me and
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Chad were riding with Joe Public here we're gonna go
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Green Bay. So this is definitely quantifies as the Hornet's
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Nest This is why they call it's gambling. Everybody is
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: going to have an opinion and we get to be
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: going against the grain. I love this about us. Yeah,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: and friendly reminder mean Chad had no oh and five
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: weeks last year, so we start their own five That
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: would be such amazing, amazing karma. Oh my god, Simon,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: can we not even I'm so overinvested in this week.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: We have so much writing on it, We got this podcast,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: there's new people listening. I like dark humor. I'm so
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: nervous about it already. I guess I guess the only
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: way we can do it is confront the fear. Right,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: That's it's impossible. Detroit's a lock, right chat seven and
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: a half. Well, all right, so let's talk about that
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: for a second, because explain to people concept of money
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: line parlay, which I've put several money line parlays into
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: the app. Already. You've talked about the Chiefs being in
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: some of your money lies, talked about what we're doing here. Yeah,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I've done some chalk money line parlays where I've done
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: like the Buccaneers with the Chiefs. Are, I've done Green
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Bay with the Chiefs Are. I've done Green Bay and
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers or the Rams of the Buccaneers. It's a
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: little juicy. It's like minus one forty a lot of
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: those um to eat down that big we do. We
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: get a little weird here, and we like doing money
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: line parlays. So again, these things won't make sense, but
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: they hit. It's crazy to say, but these things said.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Last year I had the Jaguars and Washington football team.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: I think it was seventeen to one, UM, because I
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: believe the Jaguars were a ten point underdog and Washington
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: was a seven point underdog playing the Eagles last year.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: That hit that that it's literally seventeen to one. So
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: my favorite long shot money line party this week. There's
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: a couple of different ones, but I really like Detroit
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh and or you pair it up with Oakland,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: which plays on the Monday night because again, yeah, Vegas. Sorry,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I'm so sorry. Uh. It's one of these things where
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: I like headghout opportunities. So it's it's one of those
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: where you know, I might throw the Chiefs and Bucks
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: and with a parlay with uh Las Vegas money line, um,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: and I can just head you out on Monday night football.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: So different things like that. Um, it's it's all about
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: giving yourself an extra out. So that that's what I
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: like to do with these money line parties. I like
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: taking long shots that I can headge out, that I
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: can just hit that middle number and no matter what,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: how much did you win on that? A new football team?
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Uh it was at Jacksonville parlay last year. I don't know, um,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: because I do so many weird ones man like um Like,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I think the Cardinals two were like a five or
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: six point underdog to the forty niners last year a
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: week one, and like I had them in a bunch
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: of money line parlays too. Um again, last year was
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: really flukey. That was a big year of the dog.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: I think dogs covered over fifty eight percent at the time. UM,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: So it was a very profitable year for these money lines.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: A good year, it would be, um, you know, forty
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: eight because if you hit that, you're up a decent
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: amount of money with these money line parlays. So I
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: would say last year I probably had um again we
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: talked about because it was COVID. I didn't have that
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: much money in going into the season because it was
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: just so much unknown. So I would say like, you know,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: my take home might have been over twenty k, but
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: this year, if it all hits, you know, it could
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: be like six figures because I'm just way more invested
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: in this season coming up than I was last year.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Mm hmm, I'll take some of that. Are you ready
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: for the Survivor pick? I'm ready. Let's roll. Who do
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: we got? Okay, So me and Chad we did it
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: a little weird last year where we would just go
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: best available. We didn't really care about saving too much.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: We just wanted to win each week, and then we
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: dealt with what happened later on. Um, we end up
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: winning a Survivor contest with the Jets. Yeah, the Jets
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: won two games last year. Me and Chad picked one
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: of them right, and we end up winning Survivor Contest
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: with the Jets. Let that sink out. So same thing
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: this year. Um, we we're just trying to just win
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the first week, and I did want to take the bucks,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: but then I started looking at people that we have
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. Our guy read and you know, he
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: was Travis Racings, our Survivor pool expert. He's the best,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: and he was basically just talking about how you know,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have some really easy games later in the year. Um,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: they're kind of on these teams you might be able
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: to hold onto where the Rams they don't really have
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: that many easy games. Um. Again, this game feels like
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: an incredible trap. Who who doesn't see Matthew Stafford having
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: a meltdown somehow against this various defense and somehow ay
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Dalton shocks the world and wins nine to three or something. Weird.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: But that's like a lesson of a five percent chance
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: of afne uh. Just by the math, if if we
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: if they play this game a hundred times, we're gonna
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: be winning this game over seventy percent at the time.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: So just off that alone, we probably want to take
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: the Rams here, just get it out of the way
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: because in that division, it doesn't feel like we have
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: that many opportunities to be taking the Rams. So for
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Survivor contest, I know it's it's it's pretty scary that
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: we're taking a Sunday night primetime game, but we just
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: need to win. We don't even cover seven a half.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: We just needed to win. So I like the Rams
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: here at that number. I like that the only other
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: one if we want to be crazy Tennessee, Oh Titans.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Now we'll save them for when they play the Jacker Houston.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a good point. We don't want to
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: think too much about the future, but there are certain
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: teams we're gonna try and save it for later on.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's go with the Rams. The Rams
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: will be our survivor pick. Let's let's summarize here right now,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the five teams that we love the most. Chiefs minus
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: five and a half, Packers minus three and a half,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: going against the grain. That's our that is our Hornets
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Nest better the week. We like the Washington football team
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: plus one. We like Detroit plus seven and a half.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: We like Pittsburgh plus six and a half. That is
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: our big Balls Better the Week here, Rams will be
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: our survivor team. We are loaded with money line parlays.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Colin and I are going to discuss all this later
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: today it's Thursday. We're gonna do it live on the
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Volume YouTube channel. Uh. He's gonna give me his five picks.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I will judge them based on the professional better wise
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: guys sharp point of view, and I will give him
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: mine and hours as well. That podcast will later on Fridays.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Convince me at Action Network ah Q on Sunday's eleven
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: a m. Eastern. You should do Survivor pick I can.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I'll put a little an extra deposit in for Colin Calhary.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: You should. It's on me. Just have them picked every week.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: Pick a Survivor team. I'll do it. I'll tell him today.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I love I love that. Uh. Listen, you very generously
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: said if people submit their five star reviews and make
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: them funny, you will. We will put everyone into a
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: pool and they will get a chance to win one
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: of your three or four whale picks best picks of
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: the year. Um, and so we're still getting reviews. Here's
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: some funny ones that made us laugh. One Best NFL
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Betting Podcast. Matt Mitchell is collecting the names of the
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: people who submitted these. They will all go into a
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: pool and we will randomly choose Best NFL a betting podcast,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: actual prose, giving sharp picks. You can legitimately make money
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: following their picks. Also, Chad is a delf. Wow, I'll
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: take it. I can see why you picked that one.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: I'll take it. Here's another one hashtag mute chat five stars.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: Study show that a mother's voice has a soothing power
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: on a child, that we can reduce stress and increase
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: comfort at same power has heard in Simon Hunter's voice
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: when he's talking about betting on pro football. All Right,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: those came from h HT and vod Zilla email podcasts
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: at Action network dot com. You will win a prize,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: you know, some swag or something, but you were also
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: entered into the pool to win. Simon's one of his
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: big plays of the year. Simon, I think we covered
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: it all the first Thursday edition of the NFL season.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I feel good. I feel ready because like we have
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of winners chat, I'm feeling pretty pretty confident,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: which has always doomed us in the past. So hopefully
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: by Sunday, I have tons of doubt so our picks
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: can come through and win. Hoping a hundred percent that
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: we turned the tide on our confidence. That is the
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: way to go into any situation, as has been the
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: IM Chad Newman. Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Podcasts wherever you get your podcasts until next time Tuesday
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: of next week. I love you, h