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Joe Consorti | Macro Update | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

0:05
Hello everybody and welcome to another episode of Simply
0:07
Bitcoin IRL. Today we have a very special
0:09
guest, Joe Consorti. He is the macro zoomers,
0:15
extremely intelligent, also very young, but definitely wise, wise
0:21
beyond his ear. Is that how it says that's not
0:23
how it goes? I don't know.
0:24
I don't know the saying. Anyways, something close enough.
0:28
Joe, how you doing? I don't think you've ever been
0:29
on the show before, so happy to have you.
0:32
No first time, man. Thank you for having me.
0:34
It should be a fun one. Wise beyond his years.
0:37
That's the saying. Boom.
0:38
Just figured it out. Anyways, I do want to talk about
0:42
kind of, I don't want to say big news, 'cause it's just it's it
0:46
feels like a cult at this point, where everyone just kind of
0:48
like, follows what the Fed is going to do.
0:50
But apparently they did not raise rates.
0:54
To quote the Reuters article directly says they are more they
0:58
they need more confidence on the inflation front before any any
1:03
rate cuts start. So what's your take on that?
1:05
What's going on in macro land? Yeah.
1:08
So this is what was expected. By all accounts, the Fed was
1:12
gonna leave rates unchanged to this meeting.
1:15
The Fed this entire cycle has forecasted what they're going to
1:19
do well in advance so as to not disrupt the market.
1:22
If the market has an expectation, the Fed sets it
1:25
well in advance and then it doesn't go against that
1:27
expectation. It helps the Fed conduct its
1:30
monetary policy better. So this was expected, but it was
1:34
also expected that they would forecast rate cuts for the March
1:40
meeting. And they didn't do that.
1:42
They actually walked back all expectations of rate cuts.
1:45
There was no wording about rate cuts in the statement that the
1:49
Fed released. And Jerome Powell went up during
1:52
his press conference and basically took rate cuts
1:56
entirely off the table, said that they're not considering any
1:58
for March, and said that they wouldn't be considering any
2:02
until inflation returned back to its 2% yearly rate.
2:07
So you know that kind of that tightened things up a little
2:10
bit, tightened up financial conditions marginally, but the
2:14
market doesn't seem to believe the Fed and with good reason
2:18
because we saw earlier today several of the banks that were
2:22
involved in buying parts of Silicon Valley Bank when it
2:25
failed had really dismal earnings reports.
2:30
They had huge losses. Namely, New York Community Bank
2:36
had, I believe, a $249,000,000 loss and it was expected in Q4
2:41
to have a $250 million gain, so $500 million in the opposite
2:46
direction, not necessarily a good sign.
2:49
And it's loan loss provisions, which is basically money that
2:52
gets set aside for a rainy day, rose to number.
2:57
Off the top of my head, I believe it was something like
3:00
$500 billion, which is about 1/6 of the size of loan loss
3:07
provisions that Bank of America has.
3:09
Bank of America being one of the largest banks in the US, it
3:12
makes sense for them to have a lot of cash set aside in case
3:15
business and consumer loans go bad.
3:18
But for a regional bank to have almost 1/6 of the rainy day cash
3:23
pile that Bank of America has, it's not a good sign.
3:27
It means that regionals, small and mid sized banks, they're
3:31
bracing for impact. They're bracing for a pretty
3:35
swift market downturn. That's what that tells me.
3:39
And then the market's reaction to that also confirms it. the US
3:45
Treasury rates fell by a pretty huge amount today.
3:51
The two year yield which is the most popular short term note on
3:54
the market fell by 13 basis points or .13%.
3:58
The 10 year note which is the one of the more popular long end
4:02
notes fell by 12 basis points. So people are basically saying
4:06
we think the economy is going to slow down.
4:08
We think the Fed's going to cut rates and we're going to buy
4:12
bonds because of it. We're going to allocate to bonds
4:14
because we think the Fed is going to cut rates and we want
4:16
to insulate ourselves from the fallout and benefit from from
4:20
when rates fall and the price of our bonds go up.
4:23
So there's this market wide de risking impulse.
4:25
People are flying to safety, the safety of U.S., government bonds
4:32
and relative safety. And basically even though the
4:36
Fed has said we don't plan on cutting interest rates, the
4:38
market is kind of saying I don't believe you and that's why you
4:42
saw the moves that you saw today.
4:44
Gotcha. Did you see also there's been
4:47
some rumblings to massive corporations in SMP 500 there,
4:53
there's been some layoffs, some big percentages too, like 10% of
4:58
the workforce, 15% of the workforce.
5:01
So what's your take on this? And then I'll kind of add
5:03
another question on top of that, right.
5:05
As I asked Larry Leopard this question about a week or so ago
5:09
at Bitcoin Naples, where's the recession, man?
5:13
Did the did the Fed pull off the, the, the soft landing?
5:16
Where is this recession? People have been calling for
5:19
this recession for over a year. It's never come.
5:21
So what's going on there? What's your take on that, Joe?
5:24
This cycle's been crazy, man. I mean, you know, if I I would
5:29
have, I would have lost so much money had I been, you know,
5:34
betting on a recession all throughout last year that that
5:37
was a consensus. But we also got to remember like
5:39
this cycle is unlike any other because following 2008, this is
5:43
the way that I'm reading all of this.
5:44
Following 2008, the Fed basically adopted this like
5:47
shadow mandate that they wouldn't let another recession
5:50
happen. They wouldn't let one happen, at
5:51
least not a prolonged recession. After the great financial
5:54
Crisis, the Fed said, look on the world stage, the US needs to
5:58
remain an attractive place to be all year round.
6:03
You know, we we can't have a prolonged recession.
6:06
And in doing that, they're basically an insurance policy
6:11
for all banks, not just big banks.
6:12
But we saw last year on small banks from the brink of failing
6:15
small banks too. And so the Fed can't allow a
6:18
prolonged recession to happen. And as such, they've created
6:24
these emergent, this emergency lending facility with BTFP
6:28
that's expiring soon. So the market is getting really
6:30
scared. I have a feeling that if BTFP
6:33
doesn't stick around, liquidity in financial markets is going to
6:37
get really hairy. As for why we haven't had one
6:40
yet, cycle after cycle, we know that the solution is the same.
6:45
There's. More Did the central bankers
6:47
pull it off? This is going against all the
6:49
Bitcoin narratives, brother. What did the central bankers
6:52
pull it off? What's going on?
6:54
Well, they're close to it. So it's like the price inflation
6:57
was at 9.1% yearly at its peak it's at like 3.1% now and the
7:02
unemployment rate is still at a record low.
7:04
So if we can get down to 2% and you know the the labor market
7:08
doesn't unwind then the federal of engineer to soft landing,
7:12
which is crazy. But in order to do that, the
7:15
banks need to survive because we live in a credit based economy
7:18
and so credit constantly needs to be extended.
7:21
If the banks don't have enough liquidity to extend loans, then
7:25
credit decelerates, which means the economy decelerates.
7:27
And so BTFP ending means that there's a huge headwind for
7:31
banks creating credit if they don't feel comfortable doing it,
7:35
If their cash reserves fall below a certain level and credit
7:38
decelerates, that means the economy slows.
7:41
That means it's harder for businesses to borrow.
7:43
That means they start laying off people, right?
7:45
And then the Fed loses its soft landing.
7:47
So it's really important that the Fed keeps banks alive and it
7:51
doesn't let this fear spread anymore.
7:54
But we are really close to the coveted notion of a soft
7:57
landing. But by the same token, PayPal
7:59
laid off 10% of its workforce. UPS laid off how much?
8:03
I think 10%. I could be wrong.
8:06
That doesn't that that isn't solely resting on interest
8:08
rates. Part of that has to do well.
8:11
Part of it is these extremely high rates finally seeping into
8:15
corporate, corporate borrowing and then having them having to
8:18
fire people because they can't afford to run their their
8:20
businesses at the scale that they did anymore.
8:22
But part of it is also Joe Biden and him being an absolute moron
8:27
with these unions. Unions, unions absolutely murder
8:31
people. I mean the the the same people
8:33
that they protect by ensuring they get these crazy deals are
8:38
the same people they screw over six months to a year down the
8:41
line when inevitably companies go.
8:43
We can't afford this. We got to fire a bunch of
8:45
people, and that's what happened.
8:46
Like last year. You remember this?
8:48
The meme was going around that UPS drivers got a sweetheart
8:51
deal. It was $170,000 a year, plus
8:54
benefits. People were going nuts that a U
8:57
PS: driver could be earning that amount of money and then less
8:59
than like three or four months later, it's no surprise.
9:02
UPS announces that they're laying off a bunch of people.
9:05
And herein lies the great myth of central planning as well.
9:08
There's this, and it's, it's, it's all communism, this, it's
9:11
this notion that, like, the central planners can allocate
9:14
capital more effectively than the people who are doing so for
9:17
profit. And so they, you know, unions
9:21
get together and they say we demand XY and Z, we demand to be
9:25
paid this amount. And then it turns out that the
9:28
private company can no longer operate at the scale that it
9:31
was. When you're forcing them to pay
9:32
something, they fire a bunch of people.
9:35
Same deal with minimum wage laws, right?
9:37
We are across the United States, particularly up here in the
9:40
Northeast, we're making higher and higher minimum wage laws and
9:44
then the cost inevitably get passed back down to the the the
9:49
end user and then they demand higher minimum wage.
9:51
And then as a function of that, companies are just looking to
9:53
completely eliminate jobs entirely because it becomes too
9:57
expensive for them to to do it. And also we're we're pricing
10:01
ourselves out of the labor market and then pricing in the
10:04
hordes of migrants that are coming into the country
10:06
undocumented for. Which it's so fucking nuts.
10:09
OK, hold on, hold on, hold on. It's so much to unpack there,
10:12
Joe. OK, so OK, say say this.
10:17
Pull this off the engineer, dude.
10:19
I mean, doesn't this debunk the whole part of of the Bitcoin big
10:24
strong part of the Bitcoin narrative is you know that
10:27
central banks like are they they've failed in their their
10:32
policy, right? They they failed in the reason.
10:35
The reason? The American public was sold on
10:37
the idea of a central bank back in 1913 and all that but the.
10:42
American The American public wasn't even sold in a secret in
10:45
an emergency meeting. Yeah, but OK.
10:47
But the the justification was that essentially they were going
10:50
to provide, it was going to, it was going to provide stability,
10:53
right. And you just keep hearing that
10:55
the Wildcat Bank era, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
10:57
blah. You keep hearing that, you know
10:59
the, the panic and the central banks are going to come in here
11:02
and provide the stability, right.
11:03
We know that the great, the Great Depression happened under
11:06
central bank, the Great Recession happened under a
11:09
central bank. But is this the first time that
11:12
central banks have pulled off, you know, being able to print
11:16
this record amount of money with absolutely no consequences?
11:20
Did they get away with it? Because the general consensus on
11:23
Bitcoin Twitter was that there was going to be hyperinflation,
11:27
that there was going to be a this crazy recession, this crazy
11:31
depression. And I I've been like, like you
11:34
said, I I would have lost a tremendous amount of money
11:37
because I would have been betting for that recession as
11:40
well, right. So did they pull this off?
11:43
And doesn't this a go? This goes against a lot of the
11:46
narratives that bitcoiners have been touting from the rooftops
11:49
the last 365 days. Yes, So I'm gonna, if I may, I'm
11:54
gonna share my screen. Absolutely.
11:57
I'm gonna share a window. This is my Bloomberg Terminal.
12:00
Oh, very. Fancy.
12:01
Very fancy. Very fancy.
12:03
Just soft flex. OK, what are you?
12:05
What are you showing us? So there are two things here.
12:08
So this one thing I'll say about the, did they pull it off?
12:12
They're really close to pulling it off.
12:13
And what I mean by that is like obviously cycles, you have
12:17
expansion, contraction, expansion, contraction.
12:19
But now we're at the point where we're nearing contraction and
12:24
it's a, it's a question of how deep the contraction is going to
12:26
be. Are we going to have a really
12:28
soft contraction? And then you know we're in
12:30
positive, positive nominal growth.
12:33
We're really close to that because the Fed has managed to,
12:36
the Fed has managed to tighten so substantially that now
12:41
businesses are the, you know, they're still booming, there's
12:44
still this huge excess amount of savings.
12:45
The reason I I feel that they're able, they were able to get this
12:49
far is because what we experienced on the front end and
12:52
that was record monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2020 and
12:56
2021. Think of it as like a cushion.
12:59
You know you're on a roller coaster and there's an extremely
13:02
steep drop off and at the very bottom, the more monetary and
13:07
fiscal stimulus the Fed pumped into the economy, which was
13:11
totally record-breaking in 2020 and 2021.
13:14
It's like building a mountain of pillows at the bottom of the
13:17
roller coaster. Whereas normally if the Fed had
13:20
tightened this much but not given, you know, pumped money
13:24
into the real economy on the front end, you know we'd already
13:26
be an extreme recession. But because it it lowered rates
13:30
to zero, it put money in the pockets of Americans directly.
13:33
Businesses said, OK, excellent rates are at 0.
13:35
Let's refinance all of our debt for five to 10 years out in the
13:38
future. Let's capture these zero percent
13:40
interest rates and individuals rather than going on a spending
13:44
frenzy. It seems that by all accounts,
13:46
they were austere at an individual level.
13:49
They didn't go out, they didn't spend all their money.
13:52
And so now the Fed has the benefit of all of this excess
13:55
cash in the economy, so that they're now tightening.
13:59
We haven't seen recession yet, but every single time they hold
14:03
rates too high for too long. But it but it it appears in
14:06
different places every single time.
14:09
So in 2000, a lot of people's wealth was riding either
14:14
directly in or adjacent to the the the.com bubble that burst.
14:19
the Fed had to step in 2008. It was extremely toxic lending
14:25
that was on the balance sheet of almost every major American
14:27
bank. the Fed had to step in 2019, it was a cash shortage in
14:31
overnight lending. the Fed had to step in.
14:32
We don't know what the hell it's going to be this time but so so
14:36
the the one aspect of it is I think that access cash from the
14:39
front end really, really helped and we're we're closing in on a
14:42
soft landing. I doubt the Fed's ability to to
14:46
to to see it all the way through though because one central
14:50
entity cannot accurately set the price of money for thousands,
14:55
10s of thousands, millions of individual components all across
14:59
the economy since since the Fed's inception and ultimately
15:05
are detachment from the gold standard.
15:07
We haven't been, we haven't been capable of accurately setting
15:11
the cost of capital for an entire country.
15:14
And I I have a feeling this cycle will resolve in the exact
15:16
same way. One other thing that is helping
15:19
keep the economy afloat and strong is our debt issuance.
15:24
We're issuing an extreme amount of debt at the federal level and
15:30
right here this chart I'll finally get to it that I have
15:32
pulled up is this is the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP.
15:38
And what you'll notice is that the last time we ran a budget
15:41
surplus, IE at at the national level, at the at the government
15:45
level, we ran, we we earned more money than we brought in was
15:52
2002. So March 31st, 2002, the month
15:56
of March 2002 is the last time that as a country we were
16:00
profitable as a nation. And now increasingly all
16:03
economic growth has been totally reliant here on an ever widening
16:07
deficit. And so and you'll you'll note
16:11
here actually the deficit widened out as we approached the
16:16
end of every single Fed rate hiking cycle.
16:19
Here. the Fed approached peak rates right around here O seven
16:26
O 8 and that the deficit widened out.
16:28
So as the Fed approached like peak monetary tightness, more
16:32
more marginal units of debt or more debt had to be introduced
16:37
into the system in order for the same marginal units of
16:41
productivity. So basically what I'm saying is
16:43
like the economy becomes more reliant on debt as the system
16:48
near nears peak monetary tightness.
16:50
You can't be as productive as you once were when the cost of
16:53
capital is several 100 basis points higher.
16:56
You just need to finance it with more and more debt.
16:58
Everything's super expensive. And so it that the exact same
17:02
thing happened in the lead up to the last recession to the Fed
17:06
started hiking rates right around 20/15/2016.
17:10
It approached peak rates in late 2018, early 2019 and the fiscal
17:14
deficit continue. It continued widening, widening,
17:16
widening, widening more debt was needed to prop up the economy
17:19
until it it it just couldn't happen anymore.
17:23
And then we had this huge recession and then record record
17:27
fiscal stimulus, huge wave of debt issuance that brought us
17:30
down to a debt to to that deficit.
17:32
And if you ignore all of COVID, we're still kind of in that
17:37
downward trend if you connect these two lines here.
17:39
So the reality is like the US, the United States economy is
17:44
only is only, So United States growth is only so strong as a
17:49
function of endless debt growth. It's an extremely ugly reality
17:54
that we haven't come to terms with.
17:57
And that's also why you see the rate of debt issuance
18:00
accelerating back in 2002. The last time we ran a a fiscal
18:06
surplus, the national debt was like $5 trillion and everybody
18:11
was talking, I don't know, I was less than a year old, but
18:13
everybody was talking about how we were never going to pay this
18:17
down. 5 trillion is completely insane.
18:20
Here we are at nearly $35 trillion just over 2 decades
18:25
later and nobody cares anymore. Because the unspoken reality is
18:30
that in order to be attractive on the world stage, in order to
18:32
be the strong rip roaring economy that demands, you know,
18:36
to be respected on the world stage, we need to continue this
18:41
path of endless fiscal expansion, endless credit
18:44
expansion. And so the Fed can stay here for
18:48
as long as it wants. But you know, sure is the sun is
18:51
going to rise tomorrow morning. The cycle is going to end the
18:55
exact same way it always has for the last 50 years.
18:58
And that's lower interest rates than where we started.
19:02
We already had negative real interest rates at the start of
19:04
this hiking cycle. The rate of inflation was like
19:07
2%. the Fed funds rate was 0.25%.
19:10
So you're realistically interest rates are -1.75% in real terms.
19:17
That's exactly what's going to have to happen at the end of
19:20
this cycle. I'm absolutely convinced unless
19:23
the United States returns to this extreme austerity and we
19:27
decide, you know what, we're going to pay down our debt, stop
19:30
all debt issuance right now. We're going to cut the
19:32
government in half by 50%, reduce federal employees.
19:36
We're going to end the needless programs that we have.
19:38
We're going to work exclusively for our people.
19:40
We're going to return to austerity that would induce a
19:43
multi year recession, right? We're this big gargantuan
19:47
monster that's totally dependent on this endless debt growth at
19:51
the national level. And in order to reverse this, it
19:55
would require a multi year recession.
19:57
And I said like 15 minutes ago that the Fed doesn't let
20:01
recessions happen anymore. It doesn't.
20:03
It has this shadow mandate post 2008 that, OK, prolonged
20:07
recessions suck. We're never going to do it.
20:09
We need to maintain global monetary dominance.
20:11
We're never going to allow a long a prolonged recession to
20:14
occur. And so it's never going to
20:17
happen. Like we could return to
20:18
austerity if our leaders cared about that.
20:21
If our if our leaders cared about.
20:23
Maintaining the purchasing power of our currency if it cared
20:27
about the livelihood of our citizens.
20:28
But they clearly don't and clearly the the only two ways
20:32
out are are monetary and fiscal austerity which would induce
20:35
like a multi year probably decade or more long recession,
20:38
another Great Depression. Or we just keep going the way
20:40
that we're going, which is ever widening fiscal deficits,
20:44
accelerating death debt issuance in order to fund those deficits
20:49
and asset prices skyrocketing. And then the you know the
20:54
government pointing to the stock market and say look at look how
20:57
good the economy is while more and more people can't afford to
21:00
fund a four O 1K. So it doesn't matter to them
21:02
because it's. Really.
21:03
It's really like the lower middle classes.
21:05
They can't afford to save in assets.
21:06
They're living paycheck to paycheck.
21:08
They're saving and they're earning in cash.
21:11
Yeah, they're getting wrecked. And then everybody that you know
21:14
that has the wealth has the means to save in assets, which
21:17
tends to be the older generation, the boomer
21:19
generation, which happens to be the people that are also in
21:22
power. You know, they're like, hey,
21:24
I'm, I'm getting wealthier on paper, but look, so let's talk
21:28
about the sustainability of this model, which is totally not.
21:32
Lynn posted this great graphic kind of showing it.
21:36
Like if you zoom in, in terms of the USUS debt versus GDP, like
21:44
you, you have those two things and you just see the debt is
21:47
like almost like it's gonna be like 200% by like 2050.
21:50
It's some crazy number. But the point I'm trying to make
21:53
is just the interest payments alone.
21:58
That's not sustainable, right? This is not something that, you
22:01
know, this is, this could be forever sustained.
22:04
Not to mention the, you know, Medicare, like the optic, could
22:07
you put, could you pull up the the debt clock?
22:10
Like, 'cause when you visualize it, it's just so much more
22:13
crazy. So, I mean, like, something's
22:17
gotta give, something's gonna break eventually.
22:19
Like, clearly this is not a sustainable path.
22:21
I think you're pulling something up, Joe.
22:23
Do you want me to pull that up? Yeah.
22:25
Yeah. OK all.
22:26
Right. Then we'll show the deck clock.
22:27
Thanks, Opti. So what are we looking at right
22:30
now? So.
22:31
This is the government's annual interest expense.
22:34
Now, the Fed and the government are supposedly separate
22:38
institutions, right? But what do you think's gonna
22:41
happen when? OK, let's be real.
22:43
The incumbent president, Janet Yellen, of course, sitting
22:47
Secretary of the Treasury. When the incumbent
22:50
administration, you know, this quarter, their interest expense,
22:56
oh, excuse me, this isn't even an updated chart.
22:58
It's already over 1 trillion. So $1 trillion in annual
23:02
interest expense. This is with U.S.
23:04
Treasury rates at roughly like 4/4 and 1/2 percent across the
23:08
board. That's what caused this.
23:09
We went from half a trillion to $1 trillion in annual interest
23:15
expense. In how many years?
23:18
Less than four years. OK, so the incumbent
23:21
administration, let's see what the incumbent administration has
23:23
going for it poll data. And this is polling data.
23:28
This isn't my bias it migration right.
23:33
On the immigration issue he's he's pulling horribly on price
23:38
inflation. He's pull pulling horribly.
23:41
What is he pulling really well on?
23:43
He's polling really well on asset prices.
23:46
That's all he has left. That's all he has left.
23:48
What are asset prices supported by?
23:50
Businesses that are doing well, OK, businesses that are doing
23:52
well with interest rates at 4 1/2% and like 800, excuse me,
23:59
it's something like $80 billion. My my numbers are way off there.
24:02
But a really, really big amount of corporate debt maturing this
24:05
year with rates 400 basis points higher than they were four years
24:11
ago. Businesses won't be able to
24:14
survive at the scale that they are now.
24:16
Stock prices will fall. The last thing that the
24:19
administration is going for it is gone.
24:22
Now the other side of the coin as well is the US government
24:26
can't survive with interest rates at 4 1/2 percent, 5
24:31
percent, 5 1/2%. The think of the rates on U.S.
24:34
Treasuries at the price at which the the US government has to
24:37
finance its debt. Now if you basically the
24:42
government has been getting a teaser rate credit card at 0%
24:45
interest rate, close to 0% interest rates for the last like
24:50
decade, Now all of a sudden it's 5% ish.
24:55
Interest expenses doubled, tax receipts are set to slow because
24:58
like I said, corporate borrowing is going to get more expensive.
25:01
Corporations are going to pull back on the amount of business
25:04
activity they have. And as a result of that, they're
25:09
going to start firing people. And so tax receipts won't be
25:13
very strong. So how do you finance this
25:15
interest expense, more debt issuance.
25:18
And so in order to fund this debt, this interest expense,
25:21
they're going to issue more debt.
25:24
So it's it's like a spiral. People call it the debt spiral.
25:28
That's exactly what it is. So the Fed and the US Treasury
25:32
are separate institutions, but they in times of crisis, they're
25:36
not so separate. And I believe that Janet Yellen
25:42
is going to knock on the office door of Jerome Powell and beg
25:46
and plead that, OK, we know inflation is not on its long run
25:50
target, but you need to cut interest rates.
25:53
You have to. I mean, you see.
25:55
That already, bro. You see political callings from?
25:58
I saw it this morning. It was was our favorite senator
26:01
as bitcoiners. Elizabeth Warren was that wench.
26:05
Dude, that wench. She's she's a senator from my
26:07
home state, too. I hate her.
26:08
Yeah, and. By the way, for anyone living in
26:10
Massachusetts, she's up for re election this year.
26:13
So if you live in Massachusetts, I don't care if you're a
26:15
Democrat or Republican, If you're a bitcoiner in that
26:17
state, she does not like you. Vote her out.
26:20
Vote her out. Exactly.
26:22
So I do want to pull up the the the debt clock, which is just
26:27
such a crazy visualization. Opti, could you Scroll down to
26:30
the bottom right, please? Yeah.
26:34
Exactly. Down there.
26:35
Yep. Yep.
26:36
Bottom right. Exactly.
26:37
There we go. So look.
26:39
Check that out. Is that ATI?
26:41
Think that's AT Joe? I think that's that's that's US
26:46
unfunded liabilities. That's million, billion,
26:49
trillion, $212 trillion. Isn't that bigger than the GDP
26:55
of the world? No, maybe not the world, but you
26:58
got what I'm trying to say, Oh man.
27:01
So if we think back to Weimar. And I hate to interrupt, but it
27:04
is bigger than the GDP of the entire world.
27:06
If we think back to Weimar Germany following the Treaty of
27:10
Versailles, which you know, people can debate whether or not
27:12
Germany deserve that all day long and post World War One
27:15
whatever. But in reality, it was the most
27:17
financially repressive contract ever set forth, the most
27:22
financially repressive punishment given to one single
27:25
country in all of history. And so with the Treaty of
27:27
Versailles forced Germany to do was basically become indentured
27:31
servants for the world for the better part of of a decade and a
27:34
half roughly. And so all throughout the 20s
27:38
and very early 30s, Germany kind of delved into absolute chaos
27:44
where in order to their currency rapidly became worthless.
27:48
Because in order to make payments on these absurd
27:52
reparations that they had to make to other countries, their
27:55
productivity simply couldn't meet the payments that they were
27:57
required to make. And so they started printing
27:59
money hand over fist more than what they were actually making,
28:02
right. And as a function of that, that
28:05
that that began accelerating because they they they owed
28:08
these payments. And so very quickly, the
28:10
currency became absolutely worthless.
28:13
What you're seeing right here with unfunded liabilities is
28:16
kind of like several decades of the inevitable finally catching
28:20
up with reality, and that is Social Security, Medicare,
28:24
Medicaid. These are total gargantuan
28:29
Goliaths. Look at that liability per
28:31
citizen, $631,000. That is way more than someone
28:38
will produce over what they consume in their lifetime.
28:41
The average U.S. citizen, the budgetary impact of the average
28:45
U.S. citizen is less than $100,000.
28:47
So over their life, the US citizen, this is net net, right?
28:52
So what they're giving to the country versus what they're
28:56
taking away is less than 100K. And we're talking almost
29:00
$700,000 per citizen. So what is the way out?
29:03
Well, we can't end Social Security or Medicare and
29:06
Medicaid because nobody will voluntarily forfeit that they
29:09
go. I've been working for 50 years.
29:12
I got to get my right. No one's going to voluntarily
29:14
relinquish their benefits, even though we need to.
29:17
So what is the solution? Perpetual debt issuance.
29:20
Keep churning the debt out, right.
29:22
And so long as people are buying it, we can continue funding it.
29:25
And it's this flywheel that keeps going and going and going.
29:28
It will never be paid down. More debt will be issued in
29:30
order to pay for it. And it's the same thing at the
29:34
at the level of direct U.S. Treasury interest expense, at
29:37
the level of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and all of this
29:41
200 some odd trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities.
29:44
It'll never get brought down. It'll never be paid off.
29:46
The solution is perpetual debt issuance.
29:49
And unfortunately, here in this country, the amount of people
29:52
that are the, the, the lifetime budgetary impact of each
29:55
individual citizen is dipping closer and closer and closer to
29:58
0. Why?
30:00
Because we have a huge demographic of people who are
30:03
not coming here to be net producers, right?
30:06
The people who are coming here illegally and undocumented.
30:09
And not to get political, but they're not coming here to to to
30:12
build a better country and build and maintain what we have.
30:16
They're coming here to leverage what we are offering them.
30:19
And so the net lifetime budgetary impact is falling as a
30:22
result of that, which means that this is even further, it's it's
30:26
even way further in the rearview mirror the reality that will
30:29
ever pay this off. You need a wildly productive
30:32
society in order to pay this off.
30:34
It will never happen. And the way it will pay it off
30:36
is through increased debt issuance and a dilution of your
30:39
wealth. And that's where Bitcoin comes
30:41
in. And the beautiful thing about
30:42
Bitcoin too, is their whole tool to get out of this pickle is
30:48
diluting the dollar. If fewer people hold the dollar,
30:51
then they have to dilute it more to reach the same level of
30:53
effectiveness. You see what I'm saying, right?
30:55
So if you don't use dollars, if you hold the majority of your
30:58
wealth in Bitcoin and keep it there, they have less of a pool
31:01
to dilute from. So they need to dilute more.
31:03
And given that they are accelerating the rate at which
31:05
they're diluting your wealth and issuing debt, you buying Bitcoin
31:08
means that you are accelerating the demise of the US dollar.
31:12
If we don't return to fiscal austerity, which we won't, we
31:16
can't. I mean, it's impossible.
31:18
It's impossible. So did you?
31:20
Of course, I'm sure you're on Bitcoin Twitter.
31:23
Do you see that book that Odell was like, in love with?
31:27
I forget what the name of the book was, But essentially it's
31:30
like a it's a dystopian America. There you go.
31:33
Opti knows the mandibles, You know.
31:36
You know what I'm referring to. I've heard of the book, yes, but
31:40
I haven't read it personally, so it's essentially.
31:42
The story of a family in the future US where essentially the
31:47
US dollar loses world reserve currency status and then you
31:51
know all these things that we take for granted now, you know
31:55
start to disappear. And then how that affects the
31:57
life of of essentially everybody are is, is the US just
32:03
repeating, you know, are we just repeating what the Roman Empire
32:07
did? Is it, is it, you know,
32:08
obviously in a much quicker pace on a much faster pace.
32:12
But this seems to be like a pattern throughout human history
32:15
where, you know, just they just start printing money and it just
32:20
seems like that's where we're at, so.
32:22
The reason that coin, you know, obviously you're referring, you
32:25
know, coin clipping, right? The reason coins have ridges is
32:28
so that people can't clip the coins, and that's what mostly
32:33
digital money allows them to do. Not just the CBDC, but money in
32:35
your bank account. If everybody had hard physical
32:40
cash, there was no such thing as like a Ledger entry on your
32:44
phone or or on any kind of database that represented money.
32:48
It was all physical, cold hard cash.
32:50
Then in order to do this, it would be much, it'd be much
32:53
harder, or at the very least it would.
32:56
It would slow them down. Now that most money is just a
33:01
database entry, it's much easier.
33:05
And also this is one of the reasons that that financial
33:08
illiteracy is so common. It's because it's deliberate.
33:12
If you understood what was happening, if most people
33:14
understood what was happening, they would be marching on
33:17
Washington and burning down government buildings.
33:19
That's what they'd be doing. I mean it's it's no exaggeration
33:23
to say that this is just abject, completely abhorrent robbery,
33:28
robbing people blind and then you know in high school and
33:33
college not only are people, you know, increasingly financially
33:36
illiterate, but also the the little financial literacy that
33:41
we do have, we're we're simply taught that centrally
33:45
manipulated interest rates are extremely important.
33:47
They make the world go around. They bring about stability.
33:50
But in actuality, no, the Fed, because it can't accurately set
33:55
the price of money for hundreds of thousands, millions of
33:59
individual constituents, it creates the boom and bust cycle.
34:02
It doesn't bring about stability.
34:04
So we're just taught that, Oh yeah, banks, they hold their
34:07
money. Nobody knows about federal,
34:08
nobody knows about fractional reserve banking or or no reserve
34:11
banking People, the banks can create money out of thin air and
34:14
they do with with no reserves backing them whatsoever.
34:18
They think their money sits in the bank and the Fed is
34:20
necessary. And every so often we get into a
34:22
recession, but I don't really know why.
34:24
So then I'll vote for the guy that says he's going to get us
34:26
out of the recession. And then, you know, oh, I heard
34:28
about the national debt. But, you know, it doesn't really
34:30
bother me. I don't really get it.
34:31
And then generation after generation, people are being
34:33
robbed blind and they don't understand any of this.
34:35
So they don't know how to insulate themselves and they
34:37
don't care. And they think, well, as long as
34:38
I contribute to my 401K, I'll be fine.
34:41
No, you won't. The reality is in the 90s a
34:45
hundred $100,000 a 120,000 was considered like middle class
34:51
175, upper middle class 200,000 like you're you're breaking into
34:55
upper middle class upper class territory quarter $1,000,000
34:58
salary that's where you are. Quarter million dollar class
35:01
today is like middle class particularly in the Northeast,
35:05
in the Northeast United States. In a place also in a place like
35:08
Los Angeles, a quarter $1,000,000 can afford you a home
35:12
that you could buy on $100,000 salary in like the 80s and 90s.
35:15
So people are increasingly being priced out of the quality of
35:20
life that was afforded to them on a fraction of the salary
35:23
several years ago. Wages are of course rising.
35:26
Sure, of course it's absolutely happening.
35:28
But by the same token, they're not rising as much as the
35:31
aggregate price level is in the aggregate price level that gets
35:34
reported is woefully inaccurate. It's deliberately meant to
35:37
mislead you. At the government level, people
35:40
don't even understand the difference between prices and
35:42
inflation. The directive of the government
35:45
and in the mass media complex is to make you conflate prices with
35:48
inflation. So when somebody like Joe Biden
35:51
posts on Twitter, inflation has fallen to a four year low.
35:55
That's accurate. But then in the follow up
35:56
sentence, he says Americans are relieved that a little bit of
36:00
price pressure is coming off. It's like wait, wait, no, no,
36:02
no. Inflation isn't negative.
36:05
Inflation is still positive. Prices aren't lower than they
36:07
were three or four years ago. They're higher.
36:10
And so it's the elite can continue ravaging and pillaging
36:17
your wealth as a function of you being financially illiterate.
36:21
And so that's what they bank on. They bank on you buying the
36:23
propaganda hook, line and sinker and instead of pointing to them
36:26
and saying, hey, I don't think that at the government level
36:30
there should be an entity setting interest rates.
36:32
I don't think that, you know, this credit based monetary order
36:36
that we live in is good. I don't think being a slave to
36:39
you, Surrey, for my entire life is good.
36:42
So they bank on you being totally financially illiterate
36:45
in order to just totally ignore these things.
36:47
And rather than actually articulating what the problem
36:50
is, the Federal Reserve's hitting the price of money,
36:53
generating the boom and bust cycle they want you to point the
36:56
finger at, oh, it's the Democrats, it's the Republicans,
37:00
it's the this, it's the that. It's a permanent state that
37:03
doesn't care about you who seeks to enrich itself.
37:07
Its interest lies solely with it, solely within itself.
37:11
The the name of the game is to stay alive long enough to
37:14
pillage as much as you can before it all goes down.
37:17
And that's what's happening. If people were financially
37:19
illiterate, this couldn't happen.
37:21
But that's what's happening, unfortunately.
37:24
And so it's it's it's our job, everybody's job, listening to
37:26
this, you and me on this stream, to spread financial literacy and
37:31
articulate what the hell is going on as best we can.
37:34
And then point people to the only asset they can allocate to
37:37
to insulate themselves from this, the only asset that isn't
37:39
someone else's liability, and that's Bitcoin.
37:42
You can custody it in your head, right?
37:44
Gold bars eventually become someone else's liability unless
37:47
you own the land that they're buried on, right?
37:50
Otherwise it's it's always someone else's liability, even
37:53
hard monies. But Bitcoin can be stored in
37:56
your head, right? It's the only asset that isn't
37:57
someone else's liability. Allocating to it takes away
38:00
their ability to steal from you 100%.
38:03
And and I think that's why, like it really boiled down to it.
38:07
I think that's the actual reason as to why you have politicians
38:11
like Elizabeth Warren and and Co, really politicians that have
38:15
benefited from the money printer essentially.
38:18
You know, they they're worth hundreds of millions of dollars
38:20
off a government salary. They got really, really close to
38:24
that spigot, right. And I think I truly believe that
38:27
that is a big maybe not the entire motivation, maybe some of
38:31
the motivation comes from, you know, her donors, a big banks,
38:35
etcetera. But I I do believe that.
38:39
I do believe that that plays a role or that is a motivation in
38:45
in their hostility towards it. But I I also find it funny
38:48
because they can't that you know to add to your point, right They
38:52
they play on the fact that people are just not educated on
38:55
this. They can't openly admit that
38:58
they're against Bitcoin for those reasons.
39:00
They can't openly admit that they're against Bitcoin because
39:03
it's a technology that if you save in it, if you earn it it,
39:06
it protects you from Fiat, debasement, AKA theft.
39:11
So they have to like you know find these like roundabout ways
39:15
like oh, terror is a money laundering ML like except you
39:18
know this whole laundry list of of of excuses, everything under
39:21
the they're just trying to throw things at the wall seeing what
39:24
sticks. So yeah, I mean it is very
39:27
interesting. Now, this is a question I've
39:29
asked Jeff Booth when he came on the show, which is Joe, doesn't
39:32
it concern you? I mean you're you're, you know,
39:35
you're, you're young and you're very knowledgeable, but let's
39:37
just say the VAT, to be frank, right?
39:40
The majority of my generation and your generation, they're
39:43
very distracted with the bread and circuses.
39:45
They're still buying into the Fiat politics, the divide and
39:48
conquer strategy of these politicians versus when it's a
39:51
Republican in office, you know the Democrats are like all your
39:54
economic woes are because the Republican is in office.
39:56
When the Democrats are in office, the Republicans do the
39:59
exact same thing. It's divide and conquer.
40:01
It's extremely effective. Doesn't it concern you that our
40:04
generations are still kind of asleep at the wheel, so to
40:07
speak? They don't really care.
40:08
They they know. I know.
40:09
They know something is up. I know they're feeling the pain.
40:12
I know they understand that they're poorer than their
40:14
parents. I know that they feel that
40:16
there's some type of injustice, but they don't understand that
40:21
it's not necessarily the political system.
40:24
Or it's not necessarily the economic system that's broken.
40:27
It's the money that's broken. We still have a tremendous
40:30
amount of work to do as bitcoiners, because, you know, I
40:33
hang out with my normie friends and they're a dude, they're in
40:35
the Fiat matrix, you know, completely.
40:38
They're completely in the They're by just find a way to
40:41
contribute. An extra $1000 a month in my
40:43
401K? I'll be good for retirement.
40:46
Exactly. 100% I mean, I don't know.
40:48
And I'm like 401K. Fuck that.
40:50
Oh my shit. Send Bitcoin, right.
40:52
So like, yeah, man, like, does that worry you at all?
40:55
Like we have a lot of work to do.
40:56
And then there's been a like a my my girlfriend, my girlfriend
41:00
at the time, who's not my wife, she she had like a really like
41:03
astute observation. And I told, you know, she's
41:07
like, Nico, I understand bitcoin's the best money there
41:09
ever. There is, There ever is.
41:11
I get it. It's best.
41:12
The incentives are there. She's like, but don't you think
41:15
that? People.
41:16
Are just too stupid. And I was like, holy shit, she
41:19
might be on to something, so I want to get your take on that,
41:23
Yeah. So the first thing I'll say is
41:25
that like I have a huge folder on my Twitter account.
41:28
I love the the folders feature and I think I have too many, too
41:32
many folders like bookmark folders.
41:34
And I keep a lot of statistics, a lot of them.
41:36
I love pouring over numbers and trying to to to get a sense of
41:39
what's going on in the world. And one thing that stuck out to
41:41
me is that this is the most conservative generation of young
41:46
men, not young women. Young men in the United States
41:49
are the most conservative they have been since 1986.
41:53
That is extremely that is extremely hopeful for me at the
41:57
very least. Because what it tells me is that
42:00
despite the mass media complex being more propagandized towards
42:05
this, you know, global communistic order than it ever
42:08
has been, right, more people are waking up and and becoming
42:12
dissidents. And that's what we need.
42:13
We need more people to be skeptical of the system around
42:15
us. And that's all that that
42:16
statistic tells me. It's that despite the mass media
42:20
complex being overly, you know on one side of the spectrum,
42:24
which is the government must take care of you.
42:27
You need to, you need to be beholden to the lowest common
42:30
denominator for your entire life.
42:31
You need to let anybody into the country that wants to be here.
42:34
National values are bad. Having a stable currency is bad.
42:37
Living a life, having a big family is bad.
42:39
More people are becoming dissidents and pushing back on
42:41
that. And that gives me hope, because
42:43
the reason people become people get into Bitcoin is because they
42:46
are inherently skeptical. They ask questions.
42:49
And over the last several decades, the amount of people
42:51
asking questions has been reduced.
42:53
People don't like thinking. That's the reality of this, of
42:56
the situation. People like being told things
42:59
they don't like, seeking out experiences they like things
43:02
happening to them instead of them being the impetus for it.
43:05
And it's not just a trend that that's being observed in this
43:08
data in in my friend group as well.
43:11
I live in Massachusetts, OK. I live in you know the the, the,
43:14
the most, you know uppity liberal area in the country
43:18
barring Los Angeles County and I, I live just north of Boston,
43:23
right. So all these big schools are are
43:25
right there. And barring the elite that work
43:28
or work in or go to those schools or live in the inner
43:30
city, a great deal of people are beginning to be very, very
43:35
skeptical of the powers that be. And that's extremely important.
43:39
And the reason it's so encouraging too is because this
43:41
is at a time where the propaganda has never been more
43:43
potent. It's never been more potent.
43:47
Social media evolved from Myspace where you had to
43:50
actively seek out your friends. There was no timeline.
43:55
And then it went to Facebook, where it introduced the timeline
43:59
that was revolutionary. You could scroll and scroll and
44:01
scroll. You still have to search for
44:02
your friends, but you could scroll.
44:04
And then came Instagram, where now there was a big picture.
44:08
And so it did more of the work for you.
44:09
And then it introduced an algorithm which meant you could
44:12
scroll forever. And then TikTok came around and
44:15
now the entire screen is taken up by whatever image you're
44:21
looking at. You don't have to do any work
44:22
whatsoever. The algorithm is so good, you
44:24
could stare at it and scroll for days at a time when that is the
44:28
most popular social media platform.
44:30
We have more young men primarily saying, you know, I I kind of
44:35
want to break these shackles. I'm a little bit skeptical about
44:37
why, you know, the value of my money is diminishing.
44:40
I'm a I'm a little bit skeptical about why things work a certain
44:43
way, why they work the way that they do.
44:45
I'm I'm a little bit skeptical as to why even when the
44:47
president is a Republican, even when they're a Democrat, these
44:51
problems aren't changing. Right.
44:53
When, you know, maybe when we have a Republican president,
44:57
yeah, the debt goes up, but it goes up a little bit slower,
45:00
right? Yeah.
45:00
Maybe migration you know it. You know it's maybe migration
45:05
slows down a little bit but we're still allowing 1 1/2 two
45:08
million three million, 4 million in a year.
45:10
More young men are skeptical of the way that we've just
45:15
subconsciously lived life and allowed to allowed it to happen
45:20
to us over the last several decades and and for that reason
45:23
I'm extremely optimistic you know and I'll the last thing
45:27
that I'll the last thing that I'll say is like if it was
45:29
totally hopeless like you and I wouldn't be having this
45:32
conversation right now right you you and I would be would be
45:35
scoffing at the idea that the people that lead us wanted
45:38
anything other than the best for us.
45:41
And I have a feeling a a generation of young men growing
45:44
up jaded towards authority figures it gives me, it gives me
45:49
a great deal of hope that. Wow.
45:52
OK, OK, interesting. And and and this is something
45:56
that you see in your friend group.
45:59
This is something that where where do you see this maybe
46:03
maybe it's because I live in the the, you know one of the most
46:06
Fiat cities in the world Miami. But where are you seeing this
46:11
Joe, where are you seeing this? I mean I do see the rise of of
46:14
of of the red, of the red pill or what I would call the red
46:18
pill movement on the Internet. So you know you see the figures
46:20
like Andrew Tay, Jordan Peterson and you kind of see like the the
46:25
rise of of really what I would call personal responsibility
46:29
becoming popular again, right. Definitely see a lot of young
46:34
disaffected males. And then they you know they they
46:37
they kind of are attracted to what the traditional masculine
46:43
role and what the traditional what what what, what what being
46:46
a man is about. I I do see that becoming popular
46:50
in Internet culture is is that what you're referring to?
46:53
Is that what you see as as as kind of like the the pendulum
46:57
metaphorically swinging back, is that really what you're
47:00
referring to? And and the other question is
47:02
like, fine, you take the red pill, but red pills fucking
47:05
sucks. You really got to take the
47:06
orange pill. Like maybe the red pill is a
47:08
step towards the orange pill, but is that what you're
47:11
referring to? Just like kind of like the that
47:13
rise in Internet culture, the rise of of of of more, you know,
47:18
traditional masculinity. No.
47:21
So not necessarily people like, you know watching those two guys
47:26
and then those are just. Two guys like that I can name
47:29
off the top of my head, but you you get the general idea.
47:31
No. I got.
47:31
I got the. General idea?
47:32
No. But I mean, I I mean a rise in
47:34
people who are rejecting this entirely, who are deleting
47:36
social media outright. I'll tell you, I went to, I went
47:39
to the University of Vermont. OK, so like the hippiest hippie
47:43
place on the planet, apart from Colorado, like this is the
47:46
highest concentration of hippies per capita you're going to find.
47:49
And even there, I had a great deal of people message me after,
47:56
after I graduated, after I left. Yeah, it it did smell really
48:00
bad. Most of the people smelled
48:01
terrible. Who?
48:03
Who messaged me on Instagram after I left.
48:05
I've been saying what I say on Twitter on Instagram too.
48:08
Not 'cause I'm trying to build a following on Instagram, but
48:10
that's 'cause that's where people from high school follow
48:12
me, the normie friends from Massachusetts, that's where
48:14
people from college follow me. People who have met in other
48:17
business ventures follow me and the amount of people who I'm
48:21
posting the most dissident anti, anti establishment stuff you
48:25
could ever imagine. I live in Massachusetts and the
48:28
amount of people that have messaged me anonymously and said
48:31
I wholeheartedly agree with you it it's astonishing and and I
48:35
can't say that that trend has been there in years prior.
48:38
I can't say it it it has been there it hasn't been there
48:41
because frankly I've only been doing this stuff for a very
48:43
short period of time. But in a in a far left,
48:46
extremely communist area of the country where the the the most
48:52
abjects the the highest concentration of extremely
48:56
abjects totally abhorrent degeneracy occurs to see people
49:01
messaging me and and saying anonymously that I agree with
49:03
you. But I I fear of losing my job
49:06
and that's one of the the better.
49:07
The best things about working in Bitcoin too is that in order for
49:10
all of this to work, in order for this to click for the amount
49:12
of people that's necessary to to get these people out of
49:16
Washington DC, get these people away from the money print, do
49:19
away with the money printer entirely.
49:20
We need more people comfortable standing up and saying these
49:23
things. The amount of people who have
49:25
messaged me and said that I I wish I could say what you're
49:29
saying, but I fear for my job. That's why I love working in
49:31
Bitcoin as well, because even if you're you're more liberal,
49:34
you're more conservative, whatever.
49:36
We all have a united goal of doing away with the global
49:38
central bank in Cabal, right? And so that means some of the
49:42
some of the pleasantries that have been enabled by the global
49:45
central bank in cabal, like political correctness and other
49:48
things that could get you fired in a place like Massachusetts.
49:51
I can't. I don't work in Massachusetts.
49:52
I work, you know, I work with business partners all around the
49:55
country. And so that's one of the
49:57
beautiful things about working in Bitcoin.
49:58
But I'm not seeing this in that like, oh, yeah, Andrew Tate's
50:01
getting popular. Oh, yeah, Jordan Peterson's
50:02
getting popular. People want to take on personal
50:04
responsibility. But more like people are totally
50:07
rejecting the notion that I need to adopt my worldview from
50:10
somebody else. And they're deleting these apps
50:12
entirely. They're deleting YouTube.
50:13
They're deleting Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, all of it.
50:18
They haven't even downloaded TikTok.
50:20
And they're they're just existing in the world and and
50:24
and that is the most, I think that's the most radicalizing
50:27
thing of all. Because when you delete these
50:29
apps, when you, when you take a look away from your blue light
50:32
screen that you've been staring into for 16 to 18 hours a day,
50:35
you realize just how much of your worldview is constructed by
50:38
what you consume instead of like your your actual experience in
50:41
the world. And then when you realize
50:42
reality is so far removed from what's being spoon fed to you,
50:47
that's when you start to become, you know, extremely dissident,
50:50
extremely skeptical of the forces at play.
50:53
And that's more So what I'm talking about, right.
50:55
Not the not the rise of like influencers and things like
50:59
that, but more people rejecting it entirely and and getting
51:02
behind the message that I try to push on on Twitter and
51:06
increasingly on Instagram as well.
51:08
Interesting, interesting. Yeah, very interesting, man.
51:11
Very interesting. So, yeah, I mean you you have a
51:15
more optimistic kind of outlook on this from my perspective
51:20
maybe because my it's my job to cover the news every single day.
51:24
I, you know, I see it a little bit, a little from a little bit
51:27
more darker perspective, but I also believe that we are, we're
51:31
definitely winning. I definitely believe that the
51:34
like like you were saying earlier that the Overton window
51:37
is slowly shifting. You know that Javier Malay
51:42
speech at, you know, at the container conference, also known
51:45
as the, you know, World Economic Forum conference or whatever.
51:49
You know, where he's talking about how, you know, governments
51:51
no longer need to control the means of production.
51:54
They can just print money. It's essentially it, you know,
51:57
it's essentially the same thing. Can't believe they let him make
52:00
that type of speech. The fact that he got elected in
52:02
Argentina, of course, El Salvador, I know all those
52:05
things are over the target just based on the legacy corporate
52:07
media's response to all those events, right.
52:09
They're just, they're they're losing their shit, Forgive my
52:13
language, but they really are they they just don't know how to
52:15
address it. So I yeah, I I agree.
52:18
I definitely think that there is this, this massive shift in the
52:20
world. I think too.
52:22
Living in one of the perceived like worst areas of the country
52:26
to see the the majority of people that I interact with on a
52:29
daily basis, whether it's out in church, of course in church the
52:32
demographics going to be skewed from what what they normally
52:34
are. But in church, in the gym, in my
52:36
daily life, the people I interact with and the fact that
52:39
mostly Massachusetts people follow me on Instagram, I'm
52:42
schizoposting on Instagram daily and I've only gotten like 100
52:47
unfollows. So it's it's extremely
52:50
encouraging. The lion's share of people that
52:51
I'm interacting with agree with me, they just haven't known
52:54
there's an alternative. They live their whole life
52:56
thinking and understanding these things.
52:57
Well, Elizabeth Warren's going to be our senator because she's
53:00
always been our senator and blah, blah, blah.
53:02
It doesn't have to be this way. And so I I think all it takes is
53:05
a few people having being extremely loud in their beliefs
53:10
so that other people feel comfortable and understand that
53:12
there's enough view. I think if I was living, I would
53:20
exactly do. But it's just encouraging living
53:22
in a place like Massachusetts and interacting with the people
53:24
that I do and the lion's share of people that I, I, I, I speak
53:27
to on a daily basis think almost the exact same way that I do and
53:31
and that and. That's, you know, that's
53:32
extremely encouraging that you say that 'cause I live in a red
53:36
state and I don't see, you know, it's it's Florida's pretty dope.
53:42
It's pretty free like you don't, you know, you don't really see
53:44
that stuff. But the fact that you're, you
53:45
know in the belly of the beast, so to speak, in terms of, you
53:49
know, I guess perception, so to speak and then that's what
53:53
you're seeing I think is extremely that's extremely,
53:58
that's that's great news. And and I just want to specify,
54:01
we say this every single day on our show, but you know I don't
54:04
think this is about left or right.
54:05
And and I don't think of this about Democrat or Republican.
54:08
I had Nolan essentially does the programming for the Bitcoin
54:11
conference on the show, I think it was about a week ago or so
54:15
and he was talking about essentially the future of
54:18
politics is really even about it's really going to be about
54:21
the so-called decentralizing forces versus the centralizing
54:25
forces, right. And essentially that's really
54:27
what's in front of us, that's the battle ahead and it's really
54:33
not a Democrat or a left wing versus right wing issue.
54:36
It's really about you know are you for mass centralization or
54:41
you are you for decentralization Really.
54:46
So yeah. I mean it's very, very exciting
54:47
dude. And I mean look you're you're a
54:49
young guy you're you're the zoomer generation you're the the
54:53
the way that was described to me was the first generation that's
54:59
Internet native, right. I was I was in middle school
55:03
when I had my first experience with dial up right where versus
55:07
you were born and the Internet was a thing right.
55:10
What what excites you, man about the, you know, the next 1015
55:15
years? I I think that this is such a
55:18
we've reached an inflection point when things are just going
55:20
to accelerate on a technological level, you know, just things are
55:25
just going to get crazy. You know, we're we're just, you
55:28
know, the hockey stick. We're like at the very, very
55:31
beginning of the curve of the hockey stick and it's about to
55:33
just blast off. So yeah, I mean what are you
55:36
excited about the next 5-10 years?
55:38
What's What's on your mind? So obviously the acceleration of
55:42
Bitcoin development and Bitcoin adoption, like I said, in order
55:46
to fund interest payments in order to keep businesses in the
55:49
United States afloat, debt issuance has to accelerate.
55:52
It has to, and it has been, but as a function of that as well,
55:55
the interest expense onset debt will also accelerate as debt
55:59
issuance widens relative to productivity here in the United
56:02
States, that deficit is going to widen out, which again feeds
56:05
back into that perpetual cycle. We need more debt in order to
56:07
keep it all afloat. As that accelerates, the reality
56:11
at the individual level will also come to the fore at an
56:15
accelerating rate too. And in the reality at the
56:17
individual level is you got to insulate yourself from all of
56:20
this. You got to insulate your family
56:21
from this but but also barring barring things like Bitcoin and
56:26
more people every single year at an accelerating rate, jumping
56:29
onto the ship per southeast is the the the cultural impact of
56:33
that as well when the monetary leaders no longer have their
56:37
reigns on the country. What does that mean?
56:40
And I have a feeling that a a massive restoration in natural
56:46
national pride rather is on the way.
56:50
I have AI have a huge feeling that a lot of the mass
56:53
demoralization campaign that's been levied against Americans
56:56
for the last that that's been around since I was in school,
57:01
that's going to be done away with very swiftly as people
57:04
begin to again you know what with dissident money, dissident
57:07
money kind of makes you a dissident right.
57:10
And so I I have a feeling a lot of these anti American anti
57:13
human policies will be driven out of the halls of power at the
57:17
state and federal level. And I'm very excited for that
57:21
and I think that as a function of that renewed national pride
57:25
and that that renewed sense of of of wonder and discovery.
57:29
I think our birth rates are going to are going to get fixed.
57:32
I think more optimism will will come to the lives of young
57:35
people as they recognize there is an alternative to the US
57:38
dollar. You do have a future as long as
57:40
you play your cards right. So I think more young people
57:43
will will will have families or birth rate will be fixed
57:47
naturally from within. And I think that, you know, as
57:50
we approach this inflection point where governments, you
57:54
know, spending it is kind of reaching comical levels of of
57:58
acceleration, you got to understand on the other side of
58:01
all that there's a big reset button.
58:02
There's a big reset button that's going to have to be
58:04
pressed. And in the lead up to to all of
58:07
that, Bitcoin is the acid that you can hold and sort of ride
58:11
all the way up to the top because we know there's only one
58:13
solution to all of this. So I'm excited for the cultural
58:18
paradigm shift that's going to come in the wake of people
58:22
feeling or a nude sense of hope because of what Bitcoin brings
58:26
to the table for them. It's going to be really
58:29
exciting. Joe, Consorti for president
58:32
2035. You guys heard it here and dude,
58:36
that was that was that was great, man.
58:38
That was really good. So what is if you know, if you
58:42
have a message for the audience, anyone who's listening right
58:44
now, what would be your final message to everybody?
58:49
Get on the mission. Get your family and friends on
58:51
the mission. Explain to them clearly the
58:54
problem. Runaway government spending,
58:56
runaway government debt issuance.
58:58
Explain to them that this is a site, This is a cycle that has
59:01
been happening time after time. It's not a left or right issue.
59:06
It is an issue with one building on Eccles St. in Washington DC
59:10
and you could take the power away from them to take away your
59:13
livelihood by allocating to an asset that they can't
59:16
confiscate. And that is Bitcoin.
59:18
You're not only taking your money and storing it with you
59:23
and with only you, but you're also removing their ability to
59:26
effectively ruin the lives of others.
59:28
So as this election comes and goes, as the next election comes
59:33
and goes, as wars rage on and perhaps get worse, understand
59:37
that at an individual level you can not only improve your
59:41
prosperity, but improve the prosperity of the world around
59:44
you sooner rather than later by allocating the Bitcoin.
59:47
So get on the mission, get your friends and family on the
59:50
mission, give them the materials that they need to to learn about
59:52
this, and let's make a a big bright orange future for
59:56
everyone one. 100 percent, 100% right.
1:00:00
Completely agree. Get on the mission, take agency,
1:00:02
take action. You know, help the people around
1:00:05
you. Really convince people that's
1:00:06
not left first, right? It's really orange versus green.
1:00:09
Joe Consorti, thank you so much for coming on simply Bitcoin,
1:00:12
why don't you tell everybody where they can find you on the
1:00:14
interwebs? You do have a YouTube channel
1:00:16
with Nick Bhatia, which I'm a big fan of.
1:00:19
So why don't you plug all that? For sure, yeah, you could find
1:00:22
everything that I do on Twitter or XI hate that new name at Joe
1:00:27
Consorti, just at first name, last name as it appears on the
1:00:30
screen. And then you could search the
1:00:34
Bitcoin layer on Google. I write a sub stack and you have
1:00:38
a YouTube channel over there with Nick Bhatia, professor at
1:00:40
USC, author of Layered Money and also I recently started a new
1:00:45
line of work with Thea. They are a simple multi sig self
1:00:48
custody solution. I encourage all of you to take a
1:00:50
look at download for free on the App Store.
1:00:53
A lot of people are put off by multi sig because they think I
1:00:55
don't have enough Bitcoin for it or it might be too expensive.
1:00:58
I don't want to work with, I don't want to have to work with
1:01:00
somebody. Thea is a solution for you.
1:01:02
You could do it all on your own, all in the App Store.
1:01:05
Simple, easy. Two or three multi sig, self
1:01:07
custody. So that's that.
1:01:09
Awesome man. Well, thank you so much for
1:01:10
coming on the show. Really appreciate it.
1:01:12
I'm going to wrap it up real quick, guys.
1:01:14
That was another episode of Simply Bitcoin IRL.
1:01:15
We'll be back with the live show tomorrow, 12:15 PM Eastern
1:01:18
Standard Time, for another episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
1:01:22
I want to thank our guests once again.
1:01:23
Joe Consorti, thank you for coming on.
1:01:25
I'll see you guys on the next one.
1:01:26
Peace out, everybody.