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Episode 11: One of these Schedules Goes to 11 · Spiders Sound Off

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Hey everybody. Welcome back to Spider.
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Sound off. This is Tom.
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And this is Porter. And today we are going to talk
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about the out of conference schedules.
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We mentioned last time we were going to wait for the 810
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schedules to come out, but there's been a lot of talk about
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the men's out of conference schedule and the women's
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schedule was just released kind of right when we were doing last
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week's podcast. So we're going to talk about
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both of those. But before we get into some of
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the highlights or low lights, depending on your perspective,
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why does the out of conference schedule matter?
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Porter? That's a great question.
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So for you Spider fans who are always thinking about getting an
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at large bid, the out of conference schedule matters
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because it's your chance to really influence your NET
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ranking in a way that positions you for an at large once
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conference play starts. So what is the NET, you ask?
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Well, if you guys recall, and have you been a long time Spider
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fan, we used to care about the RPI.
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The RPI was the tool that the NCAA used to kind of determine
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how good of a basketball team you were.
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And you've heard us mentioned in prior episodes, we've had, you
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know, an RPI of 41 or 38, but usually in the top 50 of RPI you
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were considered, you know, a potential at large candidate.
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And it's the same for the NET, but the net has changed a little
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bit in terms of what they evaluate.
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They go based on kind of two core factors.
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One is called the Team Value Index, which it's a results
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based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents,
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particularly away from home. It's kind of a strength of
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schedule is what kind of RPI? Yeah, yeah, except for it's
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added an adjusted net efficiency rating.
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Now they say that the margin of victory doesn't matter, but it
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does in that your the computers are working behind the scenes to
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look at who you played, where you played them, and what you
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beat them by and what kind of offensive efficiency you you
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demonstrated and what kind of defensive efficiency you
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demonstrated. And if I understand those those
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metrics right, it's going to be your scoring per possession
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efficiency and then holding teams scoring on defense per.
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Possession, that's right. So for example, a given
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efficiency, which is your net points per 100 possessions
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against a stronger opponent rates higher than the same
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efficiency against a lesser opponent.
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So having a really good efficiency on the road rates
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higher than having the same efficiency at home.
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So what this means for our basketball OOC schedules is when
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you're playing somebody and let's say it's a, it's a small
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conference team, maybe not a great team, let's call it VMI,
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for instance, you know, you, you could be up, you know, 88 to 61
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decide to bring in, you know, players #10 through 16 on your
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roster. And then all of a sudden the
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margin of victory gets cut to like 80 or 94 to 83.
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And your your overall impact on the net rating is going to be
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Hanford because of of, you know, the score run up at the end.
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So when you're in the Robin Center, you have to be thinking
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about like things like how efficient are we winning this
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game as well as are we winning this game?
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Yeah, that's right. And I think the hard part is I
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think you want coaches to prioritize winning.
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You do. And what does it take to win?
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And you could get distracted if I think you think too much
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about, you know, how efficient are we in the moment during the
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game? But I think it's it's those
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games that you have in hand. What do you do in the last two
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minutes? Could be the difference between
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improving your net or harming your net.
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Right. And it's it's what's interesting
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about it is like, you know, we're we're in the Robinson
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watching a game. We just want to win.
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And a lot of times we as fans want to see like let's develop
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players 10 through 13 on the roster, right?
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So let's give them 10 meaningful minutes.
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But now you have to think about those 10 meaningful minutes have
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to result in a good efficiency number because you know, we're
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playing your your bottom of your roster could end up hampering
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your chances for an at large because the margin of victory
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gets cut. Your defensive efficiency goes
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down, your offensive efficiency goes down.
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So it's just something to kind of keep in mind folks when we
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talk about you need to run up the score against some of these
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weaker teams. It's all about trying to game
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the net to get an at large at the end of the year.
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Yep. OK, so let's get into these
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schedules. We're going to start with the
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women's schedule. I just released last week.
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We talked a little bit about some of these games that they
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definitely have some marquee games, but I just want to give
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some overall highlights. So if you look at last year's
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final net rankings are and we have 13 games, the average is
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126 and that's last year's net. If you look at our Rd. and that
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does not include the games at the Henrico facility, I'm not
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including that really neutral. If you just look at all of our
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other road or neutral games, it's 77.
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So that's. Pretty strong, yeah, very
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strong. If you look at what's in the
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Robin Center, it's 175 points to the home games, the weaker
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opponents. If you look at the entire slate,
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seven of the teams went to the NCAA tournament last year, 4 of
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them won at least one game in the tournament and also two NIT
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teams. So that that that's pretty
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impressive. 8 of the 13 were in the top 100 net and two in the
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top 10. Again, that's last year's net.
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Teams change. You know, the portal changes
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things a lot, but it's a super impressive schedule.
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So the way our season starts, we're home.
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We have a home game to open at Mount Saint Mary's.
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That's a team we should be by a lot.
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Yeah, that's in the Robin Center.
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It's also the home opener, so hopefully we can get a big crowd
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out. When we talk about getting a
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crowd out to support the ladies, you know, it helps the ladies
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play. The bigger the crowd last year,
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the better the result. I saw that.
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Now we open at home and then a few days later we're at Texas to
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play what's gonna be a top five team.
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This is a team that's going into this season with a goal to win a
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national championship. Yeah, they have one of the best
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players in the country. We got to see Madison Booker in
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the Robin Center last year. The game, well, it looked close.
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If you look at the score, we lost by 11, but we are down by
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17 after the third. Yeah, we made a little run in
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the fourth to tighten it, but we got beat pretty handily and
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Madison Booker was the highlight.
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He can really do everything. She's going to be a WNBA draft
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pick next year at a high one. They have size and side.
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And if I remember from last year's game, we got we got in a
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little bit of foul trouble. And that, you know, when you get
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in foul trouble against a team like Texas and you end up having
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to, you know, potentially took down some of your better
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players, it it leads to disparate outcomes.
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And I think that kind of happened to some degree.
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Yeah, and we're a team that likes to play fast, but we had
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24 turnovers in the Texas game last year.
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Like that was fast and sloppy. We only scored 54 points in that
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game. We averaged 75 points per game
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for the season. So it shows you that that's a
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defensive team, not just a, not just Madison Booker who can
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score. Yeah, Texas is going to be a
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tough game, and it's at Texas this year.
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They'll have a big crowd. And they did not lose at home
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last season. Yeah, so that's going to be a
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tough one. But it also, I mean, it's why
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you have to play these games tight too, because like there's
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other things going on under the covers when you play a team like
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Texas, because if you hold them tight, right, both offensively
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and defensively, you know, you could improve your net
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dramatically even in a loss. So you just got to you got to
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play a good game against Texas. Even very interesting last year
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they didn't really have a great year.
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And then they make it, made a run in the CA tournament, went
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to the first four-game and won the first four-game.
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So that's kind of an emerging program.
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Columbia, we played at the Henrico Center last year, right?
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Yeah, and they're really strong. Team, you heard me mention Riley
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Weiss in the last episode, and she's gonna be back for
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Columbia. Then we go to Cancun.
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Porter and I have not decided yet if we're going to Cancun
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yet. Anybody want to sponsor Spider
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Sound Off and send us to Cancun? We'll be happy to.
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Cancun, we're playing TCU, which was an Elite 18 last year.
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Here's a hot take for you, Tom. Yes, I'm going to tell you right
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now and this, this, I'm going to say this and I'm the only person
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right now I think that's going to say this because Texas is, I
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think preseason #4 TCU will end up higher ranked in Texas this
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year. You want to bet on that?
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Or is that just I? Think that's, I think that's our
8:11
next bet because I think they're going to be, they're going to
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finish with a higher NET ranking in a better NCAA Tournament seed
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than Texas. So the reason that won't happen,
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I mean, it could, but the reason it wouldn't happen is that like
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TCU, their three best players moved on.
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Basically, we're out of eligibility.
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So it wasn't a portal transfer issue.
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It was just they had seniors or graduate students that led their
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team last year. They brought in a bunch of great
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transfers. So Olivia Miles, who's from
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Notre Dame. A lot of people think Olivia is
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a top three pick in the WNBA next year.
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She comes from Notre Dame so they super good pick up for
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them. I mentioned Veronica, Chef V,
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who's a star from San Diego State.
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They also brought in a couple 6 foot 7 centers.
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They got size and side, they got great guards.
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So they're so they're gonna be really good.
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But again, they got a whole new team they're putting together
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which, you know, has risk to it. Yeah, for sure.
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But we're TCU is in Cancun, we also play Green Bay.
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And that's not Brett Favre's Green Bay.
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It's a Green Bay team that's really good.
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They had a really good year last year.
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So that's that's that's a tough game as well in Cancun.
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I doubt Porter again. Porter and I will be there, but
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we like to pretend. If somebody wants to sponsor us
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again, we'd be happy to report live for you from OK.
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One thing interesting with the schedule is that December 3rd we
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were gonna have an Atlantic 10 game at home.
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It hasn't been determined yet. So the Atlantic 10 at some point
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in the next two to three weeks is going to announce the dates
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of all the Atlantic 10 games. So the women's team is actually
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going to have a home game. I'm not sure what's driving
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that. Maybe everyone's having a game
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in December to try to hype up the A10 season.
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But that's that's interesting that we've got a game kind of in
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December in the, in the Atlantic 10.
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And then four days later, you turn around and play Fairfield.
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You guys heard us talk about Fairfield on a prior episode.
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Probably one of the best mid major programs in America.
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Fairfield's always tough. They've got a couple new
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recruits coming in this year, a couple new transfers.
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They got a girl from overseas with some size and, you know, a
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guard that they picked up. So Fairfield will give us a
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challenge. So if you want to come out and
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see a great home game, watch Spiders play Fairfield.
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That's going to be a tough one. And the one thing I'll say is
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that we have 4 home games before the Fairfield being our 4th home
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game. You need to go to one of those
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before you go to the December 16th home game.
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Last year the first game I went to, Porter kept telling me I
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needed to go. I finally went and it was
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Education Day, which was where December 16th we played Bethune
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Cookman. Bring your earplugs.
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And the places filled with screaming kids.
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I thought it was going to be a nice game where you could hear
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the referees, you hear the squeak of the shoes, you hear
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the players talking, which you can hear at some of these games,
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but that was one where it was deafening loud.
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So I'm not saying don't go to December 16th, but don't don't
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let that be your. First tell you though, the
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girls, our our ladies feed off of the kids screaming in the
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Robin Center because they play really, really well when there's
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5000 people there making a lot of noise.
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And then we end the at a conference schedule with the
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don't skip. Over Liberty, though, Liberty in
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Lynchburg we're on December 13th is going to be a tough game.
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Liberty really they made the tournament last year.
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They're always a tough game team and they just changed their
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coach from their their coach who who had been there for a long
11:31
time to one of their star assistants.
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They're going to be a tough it's going to be a tough game.
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So we can don't overlook Liberty.
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That's a really good match up. And we do end in December.
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There's a holiday tournament in the Henrico Center, same place
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where the Atlantic 10 tournament is, and I think that's part of
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the attraction, like getting the getting the women out there on
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that court, playing some games. So we can hopefully take that as
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an advantage when the tournament comes because it's just a
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different environment, different baskets, the quality there at
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Alabama A&M as a team, we should beat by a lot.
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We play Penn State, obviously a power for school that that's a
12:08
rebuilding program. So we'll see what they're able
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to pull put together this year. It's hard to know how good
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they'll be. I mean, they weren't good last
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year, but they they're bringing in a lot of new talent.
12:18
I think that their coaches in their second year there.
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Some international players coming into Penn State this
12:23
year, too. But those are afternoon games
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during the holiday, so if you're in town, it's a a great
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experience. Porter, do you remember what the
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tickets were like last year? They can't be too bad like. 10
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or 20 bucks to go up and watch them in the Henrico center.
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Great seats. It's a small kind of venue, but
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you know, it's loud and it's a lot of fun to go up there for a
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game, so. So, Porter, we're gonna get into
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the men's schedule, but I just wanna put this in your head for
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you to think about. So the women have 13 games.
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They got a really tough schedule.
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Yeah, the men have 13 games. We'll talk about their schedule.
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It's not nearly as tough as a women's schedule.
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I'm gonna ask you later, which team's gonna win more of those
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out of conference games? That's a really good.
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Question. OK, well, we're going to move to
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the men. So this this schedule's been out
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for a while. If you've been on the message
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board, there's been a lot of chatter about the schedule.
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In the grand scheme of things, we're we don't have a power for
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team on our schedule. Yeah, John O'Connor wrote an
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article about that in the Times Dispatch.
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And so I think understandably so, there's a lot of
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disappointment in that. I think we've tried to hype that
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there are 9 home games. So that's a huge number.
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I think the women have 5. And so while the women is
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certainly a a great deal, even though you're only getting five
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games because the season tickets are, you know, 50 or $60.00, you
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know, the men's team does have 9, but the top team they're
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playing at home is Southern Illinois.
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When I talk about the men's team, this was not available for
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the women's. There is a ranking service.
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It's called the Bart Torvick. You can find it online.
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It's a ranking service that's right now has a pre season
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ranking just for the men's they look at.
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It's really an efficiency ranking similar to what Porter
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talked about before. It does include all the new
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rosters on the men's team. So it's trying to predict based
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on last year's scoring for players that move from team to
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team, what will they score this year?
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Try to get to then offensive and defensive efficiency to then get
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to their T rank is kind of the ranking that they use.
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So when I talk about the men's team, you know Southern Illinois
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has got this T rank. If you look across the NCA as
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they're ranked 140, the best team we could play and it's not
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even certain when we're in the tournament in Orlando.
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Illinois State is on the other side of the bracket right now.
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They're 99. So if we we'll play, Furman is
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probably our second best team. They're ranked 1:24.
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We'll play them again. This is pre season using this T
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ranking so firm right at 1:24 we win that and assuming Illinois
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State beats Charlotte Charlotte's in the two hundreds,
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then you know, in theory we'd be playing a top 100 team in a
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neutral site. But those are kind of the the
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highlights. The other top team that we'll
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play that could end up at 100 is Belmont.
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We're on the. Road.
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Yeah, Belmont's always tough. So they're always tough.
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They're 110. In this, one of our guys went to
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Belmont too, right? I don't know.
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Someone go to Belmont. Did.
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Anyway, other games that we have here, and I'm not calling these
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highlights, but we play Old Dominion at home.
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They're 176. Old Dominion always has caused
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us trouble. Even when we've been a great
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team and they've been a poor team.
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They seem to always have more size than us.
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They're great, always a great rebounding team, no matter who
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their coach is. So Old Dominions are probably
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our toughest home game. We play William and Mary at
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home. They're 178.
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So again, there is disappointment when you look at
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the schedule because we don't have kind of marquee names on
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the road and you can look at the A10 and see teams that do have
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that. So I want to talk a little bit
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about the A10. So what I did is I, I took these
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Bartovic rankings for all the teams that have announced their
16:05
at a conference schedule. And it's every team but Davidson
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right now that's announced. So they must be working on a
16:10
final game. They haven't been able to put it
16:12
together yet and kind of I went through and said, what's the
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average T score this from this Bartovic ranking?
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So we are seventh out of this these 13 a 10 teams at an
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average of 203. So the average team we play and
16:27
this is including that Illinois State game.
16:29
So I'm assuming we get that 99200 and. 3 So what you're
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saying is the whole A10 is having a hard time scheduling.
16:34
Yeah. Well, so what's interesting is,
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so the best is Dayton, but they're at 170, OK?
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They have 6 top 100 teams. So there's a strategy that
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certainly Dayton is doing. VCU is, I mean VCU is 196, so
16:49
not that different than us, but they have 5 top 100 teams.
16:52
So what these teams are doing is they are getting those top 100
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teams and then they are playing some of the worst teams in
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college. Basketball, I got you.
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So they're beating up on the 300.
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So if you look at VCU's schedule, they have a bunch of,
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they have, you know, four or five teams that are over 300 in
17:06
this preseason ranking. You know, that goes both ways.
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I mean, I think we know and we've seen it in our past.
17:12
We talked about the Kansas episode.
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You play those top teams, you have a chance for a marquee win
17:17
that both helps your net. But it's also at the end of the
17:19
season people are looking at for those marquee wins in quad 1,
17:23
quad two. Who did you beat?
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So you got to have those opportunities to have those
17:27
wins. There is risk that you lose to
17:29
one of these 330 ranked teams that you know your chances are
17:34
done. Hopefully not.
17:35
Well, I hope with VCU, Yeah, well let VCU win two of their
17:39
top 500 and then lose 2 to the three. 100 well, but even even
17:43
like with VCU, what we want is VCU to be really good in the non
17:47
conference schedule so that like they help the A10.
17:50
Oh, that's right. Yeah, help the A10 and then we
17:52
can beat them in the conference schedule.
17:54
But we'd both be happy if there were five other teams that were
17:56
top 50 in the A10, yeah. And VCU was not one of them.
18:00
Right, right. I mean, you know, VCU like
18:03
whoever it is, like we want, you want to root for the A10 teams
18:06
in the, in the OOC. Cause like if everybody in the
18:09
A10 wins every game you get in the OOC, it almost doesn't
18:13
matter if you go 500 because you know, everybody's really, really
18:16
highly ranked. But when you start losing the
18:18
bad teams, you know, you end up dragging the whole conference
18:20
down. So looking at the conference,
18:22
Fordham, they're 13 out of 13. Their average team has a 287.
18:28
Excellent ranking. So they're playing the Citadel,
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they're playing Gardner Webb teams like.
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That like teams that we're playing.
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Well, we are, but we we only playing two of them.
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They're probably playing like 6-7 of.
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Them I'll just give you kind of the top three date and I said
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was 170, LaSalle at 183 and George Mason at 186.
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I'll say Saint Louis just 'cause they're 187.
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So those are the ones with the the best average ranking.
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George Mason only has one top 100 team, so they're similar to
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us in that regard. Saint Bonaventure, surprisingly,
18:55
they only have one top 100 team and they're at 2:17 as their
18:58
average. So as much as AI may brag about
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what Woj has done to help that program, scheduling has not been
19:06
a big part. Of it yeah, we won't go through
19:08
our win or loss predictions just yet because I honestly there's
19:10
two different source two different data points that I use
19:14
that are not out yet. Team rankings is 1 and Ken Palm
19:18
is the other. Once I see what kind of those,
19:21
those two projection services rank, you know, our chances as
19:25
then I'll have the ability to comment more on, you know, are
19:28
we going to win eleven of the 13 or are we going to win 13 of the
19:31
13? No, I'm going to make you.
19:33
Make a call right now. Oh, you make me make the call
19:34
but but. Before we do that, let me just
19:38
talk about the A10 across the Bardovic ranking.
19:41
Like where do they have the A 10?
19:42
So first Richmond, they have us at 1:29.
19:46
Last year I think we were 253. Much better, Much better.
19:50
So they have us at 1:29. Which we've talked about, we're
19:53
going to be a better. Team and that has us at 9th.
19:56
But that ranking also kind of assumes that Jaden Daughtry is
19:59
ready to go well. Every team's got things like
20:01
that. So anyway, they got VCU first at
20:04
51, George Washington second at. So George Washington has, I
20:10
think, you know, there's a bunch of different rankings out there,
20:12
but some of the rankings have them with the best transfer
20:16
class of the A10, you know, so they're really hoping out a
20:19
bunch of new players. Dayton three at 70 Sevens and
20:22
Saint Louis, Loyola, George Mason and that ends who's in the
20:26
top 100. So that's six teams in the top
20:28
100. Saint Joe's at one O 1.
20:30
So they're almost in the top 100.
20:32
Last year we had five in the top 100 at the end of the net.
20:36
So in theory it's improving and this is just a ranking system.
20:40
We're not at the net yet and that takes a while to really be
20:43
valid when you get kind of into real game action.
20:45
But there's some encouragement here when you look at the teams
20:49
that were in the top 100 last year, it's the Bonnies that they
20:51
have dropping to 136. They were our top 100 team last
20:55
year. So we're we're going to spend
20:57
more time as we get towards the the season to talking about our,
21:01
you know, the opponents in the A10 and what's what's happened
21:04
to transfers in and out. We'll have an A 10 preview at
21:07
some point. One thing I knew you'd like
21:09
Porter, I mentioned George Washington, this move to 60 and
21:14
they are they're recruiting class.
21:18
It is top ten in the country when you look at their transfers
21:22
and that's using your box plus minus BPM stat.
21:26
So I saw that somewhere. I know.
21:27
Love it. Thank you for for for building
21:29
off my BPM love. So let's let's just put it here.
21:32
If George Washington ends up being a disaster then pre season
21:35
BPM is probably. Not a strong predictive factor.
21:38
Not all that value. So anyway, what I thought we'd
21:41
do is again, and maybe we don't have to do total wins, but out
21:45
of the women's 13 out of conference versus the men, who
21:50
has more wins in that out of conference.
21:53
I think the women are going to win more than the men.
21:56
I think the women are going to go 10 and three in their in
21:59
their OOC and I think the men are going to go nine and four.
22:02
That's my prediction. So close.
22:03
Yeah, it's going to be close, but it's going to be 10 and 3
22:05
versus 9 and 4. I take the up other side.
22:08
I think the men are more. The men are in the 10 or 11 wins
22:15
and, and, and maybe just mainly because of my Def Leppard
22:18
inspiration, I think that's going to carry them forward.
22:21
I think the women's going to are going to have a little more
22:22
difficulty figuring out, you know, outside of the the core 3
22:27
from last year, who are all the other contributors.
22:30
So I think they'll have a slower start, but you know, I think if
22:32
they go through these 13/8 and five, I still think they'll have
22:35
a strong net because their schedule is that tough and they
22:38
can go into the A10 and you know, if they go 17 and one of
22:41
the 810, I don't know TCU, they don't have a problem.
22:43
TCU and Texas are going to be tough games, but I and there's
22:46
some really good teams on there with Liberty and Fairfield, but
22:48
I don't think, I don't think we're going to drop more than
22:50
one more other than TCU, Texas. Yeah, I think I, I I wish on the
22:54
ladies schedule, you know, to be more optimistic that they had
22:57
some of these like Liberty and Columbia, William and Mary at
23:02
home. Those are probably some They got
23:04
Fairfield at home. They're a tough game, but I
23:06
think all their other home games.
23:07
I don't know much about Temple see how strong they are.
23:09
We got them at home, but I. Remember those lady team, when
23:11
they win, they win by 40 a lot of times.
23:13
So it's a it's a, it can be a dominant performance.
23:16
And so I just, it'd be hard pressed for me to you can you
23:19
can convince me one of the other teams will beat us, but I don't
23:21
think you're going to convince me two other than Texas and TCU.
23:24
OK, Well, I think that's it. Anything else you want to talk
23:26
about, Porter? Aiden Noise Aiden Noise went to
23:29
Belmont. He went to Belmont.
23:31
Yeah, so I. Forgot about Hayden, is he still
23:33
there? He is probably a senior.
23:34
Is he? A senior, yeah.
23:35
He's playing on Belmont's roster this year.
23:37
I think he actually. We played them a lot, we've
23:39
played. Them, yeah.
23:40
Yeah, he didn't do a whole lot. No, I don't think he did a lot
23:43
of been against us, but he was athletic as can be.
23:46
Yes, he had one great dunk that was on Sports Center.
23:48
This is been a hopefully fun for you.
23:51
It's been fun for us talking about the schedule.
23:53
Whether you are happy about the schedule or or don't like the
23:56
schedule, it's still fun to talk about.
23:58
And we'll be back in a week with more stories about the
24:02
University of Richmond. Until then, this is Tom.
24:05
And this is Porter. And this is spiders sounding
24:08
off. See you women and men spiders.