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Crypto Bear Market?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's get into a market breakdown today. Of course, none
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: other than Jim Kramer says, the top is in. We'll
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: break it down for you guys. Don't want to miss it,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: of course, Let's just jump in and get Evan on
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: the screen. You guys, of course know him from Evan
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Aldo coming in from his YouTube channel. If you're not
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: following him over there, make sure and visit Evan Aldo
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: over on YouTube. Check out some of his latest trades,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: which we're going to talk about at alls. How are you,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Evan doing well?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Living life? Exit market is not the most exciting, but
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: you know it is what it is. Make it a
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: dead cap bounce, dead cap bounce here at least.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: So well, some of the points that are playing into
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: this right now as we just cross the streams, don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: cross the streams. Well, we cross the streams with the
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: staypuff marshmallow man right there, and that is twenty five
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: bases points now starting to fall below the no change
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: for the FED meeting in December. What are your thoughts
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: on this, Evan? Do you think Powell is going to
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: pull a a late change and say yeah, I'm gonna
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: give you to the quarter or do you think he's
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: going to follow through with a with a flat on
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the on the FED.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Meeting, I think if your power right now, you're at
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: the end of your legacy, the end of you're going
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to be out and not that long you want to
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: go out, not as the guy that let inflation get
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: out of control, especially if the new FED share is
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: somebody who's going to cut rates a lot. Also, it
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: definitely is more bearerge, especially if they do pause, which
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: I think they will now. And because the last time
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: they paused was January and you got and you saw
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: what happened in January. That was kind of the end
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: of the fun for a while. So if they pause
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: this month, not too good. But on the bright side,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: given that QT has ended, I do think this, especially ethereum,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: in some all coins that will be around in a
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: few years from now should outperform Bitcoin over the next
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: four to six months, especially ethereum right now.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: All right, so ETH, well we're going to get into ETH.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: We'll chart it here in a minute. I want to
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: play Jim Kramer's clip for you because this is where
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: he gets into talking about the crypto market AI all
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: of it. Let's go to that side.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: You can tweet me a Chim Kramer.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Somebody has to pay. The bad guy might as well.
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: Be me, and what I admit is a very big
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: change for me. I pulled the plug in the year
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: of magical investing. I pronounced it over most, especially the
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: data center and AI stocks. See the money's headed to
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: the sidelines, are headed to high growth away from tech
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: that cemetery, and I can fill it with this time
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: we bit deers and all sorts of other crypto or
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: AI animals. Please don't ask me to live through it again.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: It's over done. Just done it, all right. I need
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: one of those Kramer bells. Don't you think I'm going
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to get one of those. I got to get a
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Kramer bell. Hey, listen, We've got that. And then, of
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: course you also have this note, which is if December
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: is not bullish, this one is done. So maybe Kramer
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: is cooking early or do you think December holds out?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Let me play this clip for you and then give
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: me your opinion. Take a look.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, obviously the FED is part of the equation,
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: but it doesn't seem like the reason the reason why
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: there is air coming out of the AI trade. And
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: also there's nothing new necessarily in the concerns trade. When
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: it comes to return on investment. We knew that they're
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: issuing loads of debt in order to pay for this capex.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: It's not like anything has really changed, it's just investors
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: are scrutinizing that now.
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think it's just rubber hit the road
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: type time. When you look at it, November and December
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: are really your best month seasonally to be invested in
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: the marketplace, and if that flips on its head, it's
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: going to hurt a lot of people. Market always sets
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: up to hurt the most amount of people at any
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: given time. If we have it down December, it's.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Going to be painful.
• 3:47
  Speaker 6: Crypto is hitting a wall.
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: So does crypto get back on the horse? Does that
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: run back higher? If you look at the seven names
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: that are responsible for all the gains, they need lower rates, right,
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: you need so if December doesn't have and it's a
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: problem for the market.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Likelihood of no cut, even though
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: there's a handful of people still believe we're going to
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: get a quarter, but it is at least by Polymarcus standards,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: looking and leaning toward a no cut so much so
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: that we're starting to see a lot of bitcoin content
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: out there. Tether CEO pallo Ardini, I've never seen him
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: make any statements about bitcoin, but of course he made
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: one today saying that it's bitcoin Black Friday, which is,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: as you guys know, is discount day. So that is
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the case. Are you buying bitcoin right now? Evan, look
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: at the chart? Tell me is this the time to
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: buy it?
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: So short term, I think there's a decent shot with
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: all this fear of a did cut bounce, and let's
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: look at the chart to kind of get into that
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: big area at ninety six. Here you're getting kind of
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: a deep anchor wave in your four hour I mean
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: usually that does lead to at least a little bit,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit of kind of relief of something like this.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: I could see it even, you know, going back up
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: to one o eight. You know that's a really big
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: area right there. If you can break above one a weight,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: that's where it gets more bullish. But unfortunately, I do think,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: like what the Kramer thing is, it's usually when that's
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: a good dead cap bounce indication, like short term, you'll
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: probably come up at least a little bit. But when
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: you zoom out here, so the big thing here that
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: we want to look at, and you know the three
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: if we zoom in on our emas, which are really
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: good scene, it knows how they come gray when price
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: goes down a bit. They came great here, good bye time?
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Can gray here really good bye time? September twenty four?
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Can gray here really good bye? Sub or twenty three?
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Now everybody's like, okay, good bye. But then if you
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: go all the way back to the end of the
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: last bull run, the end or of twenty two, terrible
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: time to buy, and you went into your typical kind
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: of bull market, So I think you are kind of
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: overdue or do for you know, that type of situation
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: to come down to. I don't think it's going to
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: be as bad as last time, but potentially maybe you
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: get your little jump up reject from there early next
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: year you end up at your eighty five ives these areas,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: and then too a potential bottom, which wouldn't be the
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: worst bottom in the world at you know, a fifty
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: percent correction fifty sixty k these areas. Hopefully I didn't
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: irritate everybody, but I'm just being as objective as I can.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: When we look at really high time frames, rare let's
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: go to our two month and now this is just
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: one in a million rare bearish signs. Look at this
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: nice anchor wave right here that you had at the
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: last kind of this was July twenty one. It took
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: time to play out, but I do think it will
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: play out kind of like this. And if you compare
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: it to look at the red hiken actually candle here.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: This was March of twenty eighteen. You came down quite
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: a bit farther, so it does look like you could
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: be heading down for you know, four to six months.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: Last thing I want to say, right here, look at
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: this blue line I drew out. This was the last
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: time they ended QT. You came down. I mean, even
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: if you don't count the Black Swan pandemic, you came
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: down for some months into the end of that year.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: That was like four to six months of downward action.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: So I do think one quarter two likely will be bearish.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Overall quarter one quarter two likely bearish. If you look
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: at the tweet I put out this morning, and this
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: had eight hundred and fifty votes on it, are you
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: buying bitcoin today? And what target? Ninety five K got
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: eight percent, ninety two K at nine percent and eighty
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: five K at nine point four but not buying seventy
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: three point two percent not buying bitcoin right now as
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: it falls and is performing at around ninety five seven
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: as we record. If you look at that and then
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: you also go to the next major token being ethereum,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: you've got Ryan Sean Adams talking about this. Is this
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the end of the cycle, then it was a weird one.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: If the bull market didn't reach euphoria, then the bear
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: market won't reach despair just to slow ap the grind down.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I think with this kind of
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: unusual cycle, you could end up with an unusual bear
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: cycle as well. I mean, all these things could really
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: start falling. If we start to see an implosion on
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the AI market, that is going to have a massive
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: effect on crypto market, just because of the liquidity hits
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: that we're going to see coming out of the S
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred. Let me play this clip for you,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: because this is Eric Trump continuing to go on podcast
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: after podcasts shouting the bitcoin bullhorn like he is in
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Game of Thrones. Take a look the latest sell off
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: in book Bitcoin. What do you think about this sell off?
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: I laugh, like I literally laughed because it's almost like
• 8:33
  Speaker 6: not a serious question. Bitcoin exactly two years ago today
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: was at thirty six thou five hundred what almost a
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: two hundred percent return. Hey, I'll take that volatility. Give
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: me more volatility if I can get more return. And
• 8:45
  Speaker 6: I think that's how crypto people are wired. If you
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: can't handle volatility, stay out of cryptocurrency and don't bother.
• 8:51
  Speaker 6: But you know, go into treasuries where you're gonna have
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: zero volatility and you're going to click away at you know,
• 8:55
  Speaker 6: three percent returns. You know, go have a great time
• 8:57
  Speaker 6: doing that, and I'll see you in ten years.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Obviously, they the Trumps are looking at ten year cycles minimum,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: and I think a lot of investors are as well.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of investors who watch us are
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: setting back, you know and saying, hey, I'm starting to
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: look for now very simple trades. Maybe it's scalp trades
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: or you know, going into swing trades, et cetera. But
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: if you look at where we are on the fifty
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: two week hi with a lot of S and P leaders.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: You have Apple S and P. The gold is down,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: four Googles down, five, Amazon eight, These are all negative numbers.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Microsoft down, nine. These are off the fifty two week high,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: and then you get into things like Tesla and Nvidia
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: down twelve and sixteen, Palenteer down seventeen, Bitcoin down twenty two,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Ethereum down thirty five, and so on, Coinbase thirty six,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: micro Strategy down sixty two percent off it's fifty two
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: week high, and then you get into a lot of
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: the you know, the meme coins. So could this be
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the beginning of what a lot of people have been
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: calling for evan and and that is an absolute bust
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: on the market going forward into twenty twenty six. What's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: your opinion?
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think that, like you're getting that fear
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: right now, So I do think there's probably going to
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: be a dead cat bounce. I mean, I wouldn't even
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: be completely surprised if the S and P five hundred
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: does have one last leg up and does make a
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: new all time high kind of into the end of
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: this year, and may maybe even bitcoin back up to
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: like one ten, one twelve or something. It's suspeculative, hard
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: to say, but yeah, just one more for because I'm
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: sure a lot of people are like going too heavy,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: like it's a big battle between like short sellars and
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: people longing all these big AI stocks like palent here
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: and all that. So I don't think they're going to
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: go down, you know that easily. I do think it
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: will mirror kind of twenty twenty two and twenty eighteen
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: to a certain extent. I don't think it'll be as
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: bad as twenty twenty two, especially with Trump in office.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I do think you're probably in all likelihood
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: going to go down quarter one, quarter two of next year.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: The thing that Doll's so the other thing, especially with
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: a new FED chair coming in, that may kind of
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: mark the bottoms as well as an environment without QT,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: which means, based on that tweet we looked at earlier apathy,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: you could have things go down and have ETH outperform
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin during the next four to six months as it
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: did in the second half of twenty nineteen all the
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: way for years after. So it could be kind of
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: like that instead of having an all season. What you
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: see is you see some good alts like ethereum outperform
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin on the way down and then do exceptionally well
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty seven, in twenty twenty eight.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: So well, let's take a look at the ETH chart
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: real quick, because when you look at ethereum where it
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: is positioned right now, because I think a lot of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: people probably were buying, you know, back in the eighteen
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars range. I know a lot of people that
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: you know follow our channel talk about that that that's
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: kind of their zone. Is this a position where you
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: would look at liquidating some of eth.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: So I've been scaling out kind of since I was
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: supposed to start scaling out October first, I sold thirty
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: percent of my I was getting greedy. But then I
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: sold thirty percent of my position October thirtieth, and I've
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: been d saying out since then. I'm mo not mostly out,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: but like fifty a little bit over fifty percent out
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: right now. And I do think that, you know, you
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: could try It's hard to say, I mean, you could
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: try to get this bounce up to thirty five thirty seven.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're going to go above it. But
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: if you can break up there, that would get more momentus.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: This would be a really good pocket to kind of
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: get out and then hope for you know, lower areas
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: twenty seven hundred. Now, the thing that my educated guess
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: here is that in the bear market, you'll see eight
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: potentially go down to you know, maybe fifty eight percent
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: down two thousand, and it did bottom out way earlier
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: than Bitcoin last time. And then so if it goes
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: down that much, like sixty percent, and then bitcoin pickcoin
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: may go down a little bit farther than itally because
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin goes down a full sixty percent, maybe that forty
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: nine k area that I've been looking at. Sorry to
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: irritate people, it's just my objective, my objective view. So Eve,
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: may I perform bitcoin a little bit there? If we
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: look at eth versus bitcoin. If you look at this area,
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: this is the last time they ended QT. Look at
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: how eth outperformed Bitcoin all the way up to these areas,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: you would have thought we were in a bull market here.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: No things actually came down, so eth out performed Bitcoin
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: as things came down, So I could potentially see something
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: of that nature happen. I don't think, you know, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: think there's a good shot that this was your low
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: for a you know, this was your low here. I
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: don't think you're going to go below that fifteen hundred again.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: If you do go back to this level, I would
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: be kind of worried. We want more like upward momentum,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: like holding two thousand, holding eighteen hundred these areas, and
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: then potentially in our next you know, twenty twenty seven
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: to twenty twenty eight, really you know, getting up to
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: seven thousand, getting up to eleven thousand, those huge areas.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, well there is the situation right now where
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: you see a lot of ogs that are starting to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: sell their bitcoin and you kind of wonder what they're
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: going to go into. Let me play a clip for
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: you real quick, because then I want to talk about
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: a strategy post ethan what that might look like. Let's
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: cut to clip.
• 14:16
  Speaker 7: Three and then green is the first time coins are
• 14:19
  Speaker 7: moving in five to seven years, So this is meant
• 14:21
  Speaker 7: to be like old coins moving fifty two billion and
• 14:25
  Speaker 7: twenty twenty five. There is a huge rotation of longer
• 14:30
  Speaker 7: term holders. Do you think this is a narrative that
• 14:32
  Speaker 7: that does hold weight in terms of affecting bitcoins price significantly?
• 14:37
  Speaker 8: Yes, these were kind of periods of major new highs.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: If you try to.
• 14:40
  Speaker 8: Sell into a weak market, you get a lot of
• 14:42
  Speaker 8: price slippage.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: We've entered the phase.
• 14:44
  Speaker 8: We're going to continue in the phase where it's not
• 14:46
  Speaker 8: new mind supply that really kind of impacts price. It's
• 14:49
  Speaker 8: the question is at what price can you unlock you know,
• 14:54
  Speaker 8: tightly held coins, so previously tightly held coins to get
• 14:57
  Speaker 8: them circulating.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you have it, so older wallets
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: OG whales dumping into the market. Some people kind of
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: think that this is why we're starting to see a
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: little bit of the privacy tokens moving. By the way,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: speaking of privacy tokens, I Trust Capital just listed a
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: whole bunch of those, one of our partners out there.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to look at long term holding,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: this is the one of the ways you can do it,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: and that is getting into a cryptoiac because many people,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: I think now are looking at long term and that
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: is five, ten years, fifteen years out for your retirement.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: This is the place to go. I truscopital dot com.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Use our link. We have a special page for you
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: guys to get additional with They just listed z k sink, dash,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: z cash, all of those on And if you think
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: about the privacy narrative in general, do you feel like
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: that might be the scenario playing out right now, Evan
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: in terms of maybe just some of the OG selling
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: into privacy tokens.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, most likely, that's what I would say, a very
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: high probability that you know, that probably caused a little
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: bit of a spike, and then retail got some fomo
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: you know, let's try to pump that up since you know,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: there's not meme coins going crazy right now, so that
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: would be the thing. So yeah, it makes a lot
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: of sense.
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: With all of that, I think you still have to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: look at the positivity of where blockchain is. It's a technology,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: and we have already started to see the tokenization of
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Wall Street. Real world assets are going to continue to fly,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: and I think that scenario still is a positive spind
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: for where the market is.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Of course, is Ali Baba doing a cross border arm
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: is rolling out their AI subscriptions and exploring tokenized USD
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: and europayments with JP Morgan, all that starting to hit.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: So now you have a global you know, scenario playing
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: out of where we're seeing more of this Visa of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: course announcing all their new rails of what they're trying
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: to do. And then of course we have banks now
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: starting to engage them that we saw the Sofi news
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: this week, which is now there where you can go
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: out in a bank and buy crypto directly in it,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: which I think we're going to see more of. Then,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: of course you have this news right here on ETH.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: And this is where I want to ask this question
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to you. Twenty twenty five hundred to three hundred, twenty
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: twenty five, five thousand to three thousand, same structure as,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: same panic, But last time it triggered a bull run.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Do you think that's the case for Eth? This time?
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Is it triggering a bull run? Possibly that is a sleeper.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I think it's triggering a bull run against bitcoin potentially?
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: How performing bitcoin?
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: Now?
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Okay?
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: And I do think you know the thing we mentioned
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: I just had I thought about those you know, those
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: wallets that sold, those big OG's that sold. I think
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: the money they are putting it into a lot of
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: it is the sm P five hundred too. There was
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: a big billion dollar bitcoin wallet that was finally moved,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: somebody that took it up from I think back from
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: twenty fourteen or twenty twelve or something finally sold like
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: a billion dollars worth or moved a billion dollars worth
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: in July. Why is July signific? That's when bitcoin topped
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: out against the S and P five hundred, which is
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: a really important chart to look at. I wanted to
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: just show you that chart real quick. If we look
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: at Bitcoin versus sp y right here. And the thing
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: that's interesting too, look at these previous corrections now and
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: even if you're buying the spy at this point, you
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: know it has some Bitcoin exposure because of the institutions.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Eighty three percent down in this bear market, seventy five
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: in this bear market, I would guess that pattern less
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: maybe sixty percent down against the S and P five hundred.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: So I think one of the techniques here that a
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: lot of people do move into the S and P
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: five hundred or some of these things, you know, gold
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: as well. And look at this money flow. S and
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: P five hundred versus Bitcoin. CEO came into the red
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: right here. This was a you know, twenty eighteen came
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: down quite a bit more. This was November of twenty one,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: and this is November of twenty five right now. So
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: in all likelihood Bitcoin will keep bleeding against the S
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: and P five hundred for probably another four to six
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: months around there, maybe a little bit longer.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: All right. So if you're in eth and bitcoin right now,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: and you are taking profits because some people are where
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: are you rotating into? Are you going into some of
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: the S and P? Are you going into gold? People
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: aren't going to be putting this into cash, you know,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: or even maybe into stables maybe, But even that, I
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: would say, is less performing. What would you do?
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: I would say, whatever, Yeah, any anything other than cash
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: or stables probably would be the best idea here. The
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: thing that I S and P five hundred pretty good.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: In all likelihood, the S and P five hundred can
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: outperform than NASDAC, especially if things come down. Gold is
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: on a good pair. I think gold at worst will
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: probably go sideways against the S and P five hundred
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six, so not too bad. That's a
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: good thing too. I did some dig, you know, dig
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: a lot of analysis, and I tried to find something
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: to outperform bitcoin gold in the S and P five
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty fourteen, twenty eighteen, twenty twenty two, all
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: the bear market years. The only thing I could find
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: was Berkshire Hathaway, and that had a big jump against
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred very recently. So maybe
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I put a little bit into that. Maybe I'm ninety
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: five years old, we'll see what happens.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean he's obviously sitting on a ton
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: of cash right now, so I'm kind of curious is
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: he waiting for that position now to really drill into
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: some of the market. One last thing on ETH, because
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: there is maybe a intriguing thing happening here. Remember that
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: we have a new upgrade coming to ETH. You also
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: have this issue with a lot of ZK based roll
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: up decks. Is that are creating a lot more execution
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: and through put on ethereum. Will do you think that
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: has a possibility because the last time we saw Pectra
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: insert into the market, Now we've got Fusaka coming in.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: So is this something that you feel could impact ETH
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to the upside going into the end of the year
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: because they're target right now is a simber fourth.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's look at like the most bullish case scenario
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: fre etheroreum. So I think we'll at least get some
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: type of dead cap bounce here is at least some
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: type of rally. But if you can break upward out
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: of this double bottom here, you would have a technical
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: target around four thousand, which would be a really nice
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: jump into kind of the end of the month, and
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: then potentially if you can keep that momentum, let's say
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: that news is really good, you keep that momentum, then
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: you potentially it's not impossible into the end of the
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: year to come back to these highs or maybe just
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: maybe even make a new all time high. I don't
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: think we really got the liquidity or the momentum to
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: do that. Like if I had a guess based on
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: previous cycles and previous things, that could be kind of
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: like sell the news type thing. So let's say we
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: rally into December fourth, where at forty three hundred, everybody's excited,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: and that becomes kind of sell the news. That's what
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I'd be kind of worried about here. But it does
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: look pretty likely that you can see like this would
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: be from a trader perspective, not financial advice, you know,
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: just one of the many, you know, kind of trades
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: that I do, good risk cord ratio trying to get
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: this back up to thirty five hundred. Keep in mind,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: though we are coming into the weekend, it gets harder
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: to trade in those areas. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: if you see some wicks down, but a lot of
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: times when you lose the quarterly low. So that was
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the quarterly low so far in November fourth. When you
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: lose that low as we did right here. Oh we
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: didn't lose it quite yet. Well, when you come back
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: to it really big place. I have a feeling we
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: may lose it in the next few days to liquidate
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: some people who've got stop losses here. When you lose it,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: then you get a nice jump up, So just keep
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: that in mind from a trade.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: So you're calling for a sub three thousand eighth, possibly
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: a reversal maybe towards the end of the year. That
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: would if you think about it, this upgrade is only
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: three weeks away, and if it does repeat what happened
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: in Pectro, then there's a possibility where Eth might be
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the leg into this. Even though there's still a handful
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: of people that are shouting to the mountaintops that twenty
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: twenty six is now going to be a bull run year.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: So what would you say.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I've been around since twenty fourteen, people said that at
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: the end of twenty seventeen, everyone said that at the
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: end of twenty one. I mean maybe this time.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, Tom Lee says, yes, Eth is in a
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: supercycle of course, what we're talking about here is the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: DAT scenario BM and r SO, and this may be
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the question is is how well do the dats do
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: as we cycle out, especially if eth starts seeing some
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: real pressure, because we haven't seen real pressure under the
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: three K zone in a while, so that'll be interesting
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: to watch. I want to go to a clip real quick,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: because this is Michael Saylor saying he's not scared. I'm
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: not going to sell listening.
• 23:36
  Speaker 9: The other half of the economy is digital finance, and
• 23:40
  Speaker 9: it's going to be built on the proof of steak
• 23:42
  Speaker 9: networks that are emerging, the ethereum salonas and the killer
• 23:47
  Speaker 9: application for that. Part of the digital assets economy is
• 23:51
  Speaker 9: token ized currencies, token ized securities, tokenized real world assets,
• 23:55
  Speaker 9: and DeFi in general. And I'm sure that stable coins
• 23:59
  Speaker 9: are going to go from hundreds of billions to trillions
• 24:02
  Speaker 9: of dollars, but it's not really competing with digital capital.
• 24:07
  Speaker 9: No rich person wants to buy the currency instead of
• 24:11
  Speaker 9: an equity or a real estate or a capital asset.
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: Michael, given where bitcoin's trading right now, are you buying.
• 24:18
  Speaker 9: We are buying. We're buying quite a lot, actually, and
• 24:21
  Speaker 9: we'll actually report our next buys on Monday morning. I
• 24:26
  Speaker 9: think people will be pleasantly surprised.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Well, there you have it, Sailor going all in again
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: on bitcoin acquisition. So I don't know, this is I
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: think we've hit enough on bitcoin and eighth because this
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: is something that we'll play out in the next few weeks,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: obviously going into the holidays. One thing that happened this
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: week though was XRP absolutely went to town on the ETF
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: and this was one single ETF that went had to
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: head with BISOL, which had been the all time winner
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: now relinquished the all time winner for twenty twent well,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: all time winner of ETF a single day launch. XRPC
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: now on top of the hill. When you look at
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: XRP right now and you consider, because it's back in
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: the zone of around two thirty, would you go into
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: XRP or would you look at positioning for long term
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: holding on XRP. Is this a time to buy?
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look. Yeah, I mean it's the million
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: dollar question. I'm a little bit worried with these emas
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: turning gray right here. I mean, obviously when they turned
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: gray all these times it was choppy. That could be
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: one possibility. But end of your you know bull market
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: right here, at the end of twenty one, these emas
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: turned gray and you came down you know, quite a bit.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: We've been in this range a long time. You're either
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: going to eventually break upward from this range and hit
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: you know, somewhere pretty high up, or you're gonna you know,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: break downward and probably go down to potentially a dollar,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: which I know some people may not want to hear,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: but if we're objective about this, there's definitely that possibility here.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, your money flows coming down, maybe wait for
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: one of these waves that would be potentially a more
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: longer term, you know situation here. I want to and
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: at the moment I wouldn't buy. I want to patiently wait.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: And your daily definitely doesn't look too good right here
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: looks similar to this area. So it does seem like,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe after a potential little jump here, or
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: maybe not even a jump, you just come down to
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: you know, the two dollars area and then maybe you know,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: come back down towards those October lows that could be
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: a potential bottom. I mean, the thing with XRP that
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: we really want to look at here is XRP versus Bitcoin.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: And you know, other than that crazy binance Wick down
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: that we saw, you know, it is holding up somewhat
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: strong here more in the short term. I mean, it
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: did fall off a lot. I wanted to look at
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: the twenty one. It did fall off a lot, but
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: not that bad. That's the here, like, it fell off
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: but not that bad. So maybe you bleed like a
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: little bit against pickcoin right here. The other thing that's
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: interesting to look at would be middle of twenty nineteen,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: what did this do the last time they stopped qt?
• 27:14
  Speaker 8: It did?
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Oh that that was actually around the bottom of it,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: around the bottom of it. He came up a little bit,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: then he came back down. Yeah, it's hard to look
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: at the history there. They had the stuff with the
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: laws to all that. But I mean, at the moment,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I'm afraid of XRP. But we'll see what happens. Hopefully
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: the charts will brighten up a little bit.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at Solana. Solana got some massive
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: validation news this of course from Jack Dorsey putting this
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: into the cash app. Fifty seven million active users now
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: rolling out with you at USDC payments, which will be
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: a big deal again, soul could be shaping up for
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: maybe some buy positions as it trails down around one forty.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Does Slana hit one hundred dollars again, ever, or where
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: do you think this thing goes?
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: Let's see, so macro pretty scary, similar to this January high.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: You know that potential if you repeat something like that,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: which you could, that would be down to your one
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: hundred dollar mark, that kind of area. I think if
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: you want to show strong potential in the next few years,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: you definitely don't want to lose one hundred dollars, and
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: I think you probably won't. It's a good shot that
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: you probably won't. You could kind of hold this area.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: At the moment, it does look like bearish on the macro,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: but bulldives forming. I think you can jump back up
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: to when sixty maybe even one eighty eight if you
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: see like kind of an endi year holiday rally something
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: like that potential on this good news, and then I
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: would say probably a rejection from those points and then
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: kind of your bear market areas, maybe a slow apathetic
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: grind down down to kind of those one hundred dollars
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: points next year. I mean, look at your five days.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: This is the first time. We've gone into the into
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: the right here in the five day for a long time,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I mean essentially right here before you kind of started
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: that bear market. I don't think it'll be anything as
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: bad as that one. But yeah, I mean, Macro not
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: too good. But I do think there's some potential here Solana.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I think this probably would look better against bitcoin too,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: because yeah, you're getting you may hold this point against
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: bitcoin or maybe only come down a little bit farther
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: against bitcoin right here, especially with the end of QT here,
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: and you could even outperform Bitcoin as things come down
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six, So just keep that in mind.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: So I do think you will come down probably to
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: one hundred dollars for Solana, but I you know, that's
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: a lot better than things we've seen in the past.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: They'll say that, Hevin, we are now looking at a
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: long time low here for Cardono, coming in at around
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: fifty cents on that chart. This is on the daily.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Is this a token that you would look at right
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: now to buy.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Probably not. But if we look at Cardano here, big
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: area you're losing, it doesn't look too strong. I mean,
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: it's like trying to get a triple bottom. But it's
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: like breaking downward not the best thing. You'll probably eventually
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: break down to forty six cents, maybe even break down
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: to the lows of August of you know, twenty twenty four.
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: Right there, your weekly These emas are certainly a gray
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: that doesn't look too too good, you know, similar area
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: to kind of your last bear market. It may not
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: be that's the thing. It may not, especially for the
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: alts that survive, and this could be one of them.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: It may not be as bad because if you look
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: at twenty nineteen, here if we can find yeah, look
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: at big Cardano versus Bitcoin in twenty nineteen, this is
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: where they ended QT last time, and it smarked kind
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: of a bottom. So look at this area and then
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: look at this area some similarities. So as we come down,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: if we can outperform Bitcoin, this could be a coin
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: that's very, very power full in twenty twenty seven, twenty
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: twenty eight, that could be huge if you can have
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: perform Bitcoin. So I think for a lot of these
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: all coins, if they can show strength that gets Bitcoin
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: for the next four to six months, that's momentous, that's huge.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: They'll probably do very very well in twenty twenty seven
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Don't you think though, that with all the activity we're
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: seeing on RWA's and stable coin action and the big
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: banks getting head you know, JPC or jpycu launching this
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: week as well, don't you think that that is going
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: to take all of the air out of the market
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: on some of these laggards of all coins, and that
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: only maybe the top ten will end up being the winner. So,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, we haven't had a polytoken launch yet, which
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I anticipate it's going to be a top ten. Even
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: though hipaded a little bit of a misstep this week,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: you know, they'll probably return to the top ten. So
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: that starts to push out some pretty good projects that
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: have been there for the last you know, ten years,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: five eight years, maybe out of the top ten, especially
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: with RWA activity things like that. Avalanche could maybe make
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: a play here. What happens to a lot of the
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: tokens that don't keep.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Up, They end up like how Dash ended up. Well,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: Dash is jumping a little bit now, it's still down
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: probably ninety something percent against Bitcoin or your iota. I mean,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: there's there's a lot of coins that just keep bleeding
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: against Bitcoin or kind of light cooin at this point,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, down so much in bitcoin,
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: so they will probably end up like that. I do
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: think the ones that will stay, and you know, ones
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: that you potentually make a lot of money on, will
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: be the ones that can hold up very well against
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin over the next four to six months, especially Ethereum.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: I mean Ethereum. If it can hold up against Bitcoin
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: for the next four to six months, I'll perform it.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Then you're looking at probably at least a ten eleven
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: k Ethereum, you know, by the end of twenty eight,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: maybe into twenty nine at least.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: Well, and I think, yeah, these are keys that we
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: are dealing with now. Obviously rolling into Ethereum's position of
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: an upgrade happening that is more of a functional nature
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: that's going to be needed for a lot of what's
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: happening just around tokenization and kind of the evolution of
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the financial system. To your point, if you're looking at
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: coin market cap right now, we're holding at three point
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: two six trillion right there. As the market starts to
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: creter in, I guess the real question is is do
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: we end up under three trillion again in the near future.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: You're setting on thirty three in the All Coin index.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Crypto etf inflow continue to flow out, Bitcoin dominance is dropping.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: These are not good signs, evan not good signs.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin dominance is I haven't looked at bitcoin dominance, but
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: it's let's take a look at that, because that's very
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: interesting in how the yeah and how the this is
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: really good for bitcoin dominance dropping, especially with the end
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: of QT. This can be good for allts. Not I
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: don't think they'll do too well in the next four
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: to six months, but if they can hold up against
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin in the next four to six months, this could
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: be really good. Now, the last time you ended QT,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: let's zoom out. Last time you ended QT was this
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: blue line right here. You came up a little bit
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: more and then you went on to be being down
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: a lot. So buying ethereum here you would have done
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: momentously better, a lot better than buying bitcoin at this
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: point right there, even though you would have lost some
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: money in the short term, you would have outperformed Bitcoin
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: for a while there. And I think a similar thing
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: could happen right there. That Wick right there, you could
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: make a run up back to this wik but I
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: think that Wick is probably the top there and then
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: now that everyone kind of gave up on alts and
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: they think they're going to go down and maybe have
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: sold their alts or whatever. Their alts will probably still
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: go down a bit more, but some of the good
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: ones with good fundamentals probably will outperform Bitcoin for the
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: next few years, especially ethereum back to some of these
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: lower levels over it'll probably take longer, but you know,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: some situation like this, I could definitely see. I mean
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: this that came up quick. Here took longer. It moves
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: slower these days, but it could take some years. So
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, long term perspective, if you've got
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: a few years to wait, here could be big gains.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: You know, ten x's things of that nature. Got to wait, though.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Is there anything that you would look at to start
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: to position in outside of what you had mentioned earlier
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: Berkshire Hathway, Maybe a little bit gold if you're thinking
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: about exiting some of the market, And how much of
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: a portfolio would you hold through a bear market if
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: in fact we are in one.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: I think thirty percent is you know the key hold
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: about thirty percent of what you have. I mean, I'm
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: still heavier with what I hold Bitcoin than or excuse me,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: Ethereum than bitcoin, just because I think Ethereum's got a
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: good shut about performing Bitcoin for the next few years. Now,
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: if Ethereum continues to or bleeds against pickpoin over the
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: next four to six months, I would be afraid and
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: probably think that that's not doing as well, and Big
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: One would probably and the etherorem could potentially be a
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: relic in that scenario. I don't think that'll happen though,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean thirty percent is pretty good, and
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: then S and P five hundred would be, you know,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: kind of the lowest risk thing, and then try to
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: convert from S and P five hundred back over to
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: crypto in about four to six months or the magic
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: thing here. We're probably going to see a pause at
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: the next meeting. When do we actually see another cut.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: That may not be until June or July or even
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: August September of next year when they do cut again.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: That's a very strong by signal.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well, I mean that obviously is going to
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: be pressured heavily because the REFI is a big problem
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: right now for the US government and they're rolling into
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: REFI cycle. In terms of time framing, into the first
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: quarter and second quarter of next year. These are problems
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: that of course have been played the Trump administration, so
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: it's going to be an issue that whether they get
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: you know, a continued pressure on Pale or not. How
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: this gets into the macro side of things is going
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to be very interesting. And I think beyond that you
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: have to kind of consider the RWA tokens because with
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: tokenized assets, we're going to continue to see a lot
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: of acceleration in Wall Street. Even though we may see
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: a downturn in the S and P, it's not going
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: to slow them down because the business is still going
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: to happen. That of course, is going to be still
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: leaning into Ethereum, possibly Avalanche, maybe Hadera, a handful of
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: others tokens that kind of go in that direction, Solana
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and so on. Is there any out of that top
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: twenty that you would continue to hold outside of ethereum chain.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: Links Solana, I think has a decent potential there, I
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: think you, I mean, it's all about diversification there all
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: the ones you mentioned and then a few others. I
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: would say, you know, it's kind of just looking at
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: those fundamentals. So I mean, I don't have the top
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: ten market app in front of me. It's hard to
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: on the top of your head. I still think it's so.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't completely you know, anything that can outperform Bitcoin
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: over the next four to six months. It definitely can
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: do very well if Avalanche does that. Yes, absolutely, I
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: want to look at those bigcoin evaluations, and I mean
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Solana absolutely. T r Rex I think will have potential
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: in the next bowl run. I think there's a lot
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: of potential there for the technology. Chane links for Tronron,
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: I think Scott Toronto. I wouldn't bet against Justin Sun
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, all right. I mean that's one of
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: the many, you know, that's one of the man and
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: the most important thing here above anything else is can
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: it outperform Bitcoin for the next four to six months.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: If it can, then it probably will do very very
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: well in the next bowl run. I mean UNISWAP, I
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: think that's potential. I mean there's a lot of them.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Chain Link, especially chain Link, especially a.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Dara holding the twenty spot. Outside of that, you've got
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of privacy tokens I think are kind of
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: semi locked in here. Hyper liquids still active, chain Link,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: hyper Liquid of course fell out and Cardono has repositioned
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: I guess, even though quite a a position right now
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: at the number ten slot, but it seems like it's
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: back to the old guard of what has been one
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: to two and three, which is Bitcoin, eth and XRP
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: over the last several bull runs, and of course XRP
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: separated from Salona quite a bit. So there's a lot
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: happening I think right now. Obviously we're going to do
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: a lot more of these breakdowns because this may start
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: getting us into more opportunities for swing trades, shorts and lungs,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: which are great opportunities if you're trying to do something.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: So we'll break that down for you, Evan and I
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: will bring you, guys maybe a show on that of
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: where you would enter for short and along. Let's consider that, Evan, Okay, definitely, yep.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Let's do it all right, You guys know what to do.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Follow Evan all over on YouTube. Evan, thanks for coming
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: in today. I appreciate it.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Thanks so much. He was an honor.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Paul, you bet all you guys know what to do.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Make sure and jump in on the Diamond Circle. That's
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: our own private email group that you guys can be
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: part of for free and of course follow me on
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time, right
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: here on the Paul Baron Show.
• 40:16
  Speaker 9: Thank you,