Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Sydney Sweeney & Lebron James: When Prediction Markets and Celebs Collide!

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Sydney Sweeney & Lebron James: When Prediction Markets and Celebs Collide! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:01
  One of the great benefits of uh listening to the show on audio only
• 0:06
  is you get all this great information
• 0:08
  every day,
• 0:09
  and you don't have to look at me at all.
• 0:11
  It's like not required in any way.
• 0:13
  So,
• 0:13
  I would highly recommend it,
• 0:15
  go to Predictable wherever you get your,
• 0:16
  your podcasts and download the podcast,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:19
  every day.
• 0:20
  Uh,
• 0:20
  I love listening to audio podcasts.
• 0:21
  That's the way I like to go.
• 0:22
  Now,
• 0:23
  That might be not the best day for audio only
• 0:25
  because we are gonna talk about Sidney Sweeney today.
• 0:27
  Uh,
• 0:27
  also,
• 0:27
  LeBron James,
• 0:28
  the prediction market industry,
• 0:29
  what does that mean?
• 0:30
  We've got the candidate countdown.
• 0:32
  We go to Minnesota for this one.
• 0:33
  And what is going on with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom?
• 0:37
  Very strange and has a prediction market in,
• 0:39
  uh,
• 0:40
  sort of
• 0:40
  uh intersection
• 0:42
  between all of those things.
• 0:43
  We'll get to all of that and more on Predictable with Stu.
• 1:01
  All right,
• 1:01
  thanks for joining us.
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:02
  predictable show.com.
• 1:04
  Go there.
• 1:05
  You've got the,
• 1:05
  uh,
• 1:05
  PMC,
• 1:06
  the Predictable Market Consensus,
• 1:07
  that is up there right now,
• 1:09
  a kind of a download of all the data,
• 1:11
  all the experts.
• 1:12
  You can get this for free for the House and Senate.
• 1:14
  Uh,
• 1:15
  and if you wanna be a premium subscriber,
• 1:16
  get every single,
• 1:17
  uh,
• 1:17
  Senate race.
• 1:18
  Lots of people are joining and checking this out.
• 1:20
  Gives you kind of where is the edge between the,
• 1:23
  the models and all the experts and the prediction markets themselves.
• 1:27
  And of course you get all of my picks.
• 1:28
  We're gonna update those tomorrow as well.
• 1:30
  We update them once a week.
• 1:32
  There's over 300 different positions that I have.
• 1:34
  You get all of them
• 1:35
  to either
• 1:36
  come along with me or maybe make fun of me,
• 1:38
  whatever you think.
• 1:38
  Uh,
• 1:39
  it's all up at predictableshow.com.
• 1:41
  If you have anything you wanna get to me,
• 1:42
  uh,
• 1:43
  questions,
• 1:44
  uh,
• 1:44
  comments,
• 1:44
  anything you want us to discuss on the show,
• 1:46
  uh,
• 1:46
  send them over to questions@predictableshow.com.
• 1:50
  We would love to talk about that on the air.
• 1:53
  Uh,
• 1:53
  we've got 48 days,
• 1:54
  48 days until the presidential election.
• 1:57
  That's less than 7 weeks,
• 1:58
  boys and girls,
• 1:59
  for the mathematicians out there.
• 2:00
  Mhm.
• 2:01
  I did that in my head.
• 2:02
  On the fly.
• 2:03
  Yeah.
• 2:04
  Uh-huh.
• 2:04
  I'm that fast.
• 2:05
  I will also say it's 2 days.
• 2:08
  Until early voting begins,
• 2:10
  early voting really begins this week.
• 2:13
  Two days
• 2:14
  in early voting.
• 2:15
  You got Minnesota,
• 2:16
  uh,
• 2:16
  we're gonna talk about Minnesota coming up,
• 2:17
  South Dakota
• 2:18
  and Virginia,
• 2:19
  and then Vermont.
• 2:21
  That's all before the weekend's over and that's where we are
• 2:23
  right now.
• 2:25
  The election is kind of in full,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:27
  steam ahead.
• 2:28
  That's all going on.
• 2:29
  And at the same time,
• 2:30
  of course,
• 2:30
  sports are a huge part
• 2:32
  of prediction markets
• 2:33
  as well.
• 2:34
  The NFL season
• 2:35
  brings along,
• 2:35
  of course,
• 2:36
  lots of new highs when it comes
• 2:38
  to volume,
• 2:39
  people going on.
• 2:40
  these markets,
• 2:41
  joining for the first time,
• 2:42
  checking them out.
• 2:43
  Sports,
• 2:43
  honestly,
• 2:44
  like I said,
• 2:45
  it's not,
• 2:46
  it's not why I go to prediction markets.
• 2:47
  It's not why I use prediction markets.
• 2:49
  Uh,
• 2:49
  I do have fun with them sometimes.
• 2:51
  There's some stuff we found
• 2:52
  that is really,
• 2:53
  really good value in the sports world and we try to bring that to you when we find it.
• 2:56
  Um,
• 2:57
  but,
• 2:57
  you know,
• 2:57
  it's not like the reason I got into prediction markets over a decade ago.
• 3:01
  Uh,
• 3:01
  you know,
• 3:01
  of course,
• 3:02
  I like politics and I,
• 3:03
  and I like elections.
• 3:05
  But of course,
• 3:06
  sports are something people are really
• 3:08
  can understand easily,
• 3:10
  right?
• 3:10
  And so it's one of those things that brings people to prediction markets.
• 3:12
  They start there,
• 3:13
  and then as they get interested in other,
• 3:15
  in other things and they start moving around,
• 3:17
  that's typically what what winds up going on.
• 3:20
  All these companies get a lot of their volume from,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:23
  the sports world.
• 3:24
  It's understandable.
• 3:25
  You know,
• 3:25
  one of the reasons why a lot of people bring this stat up all the time,
• 3:27
  like,
• 3:27
  0,
• 3:28
  70%,
• 3:28
  80% of their volume is actually sports.
• 3:31
  That proves that you,
• 3:33
  whatever you think it proves.
• 3:34
  You think,
• 3:34
  oh,
• 3:35
  it's gotta be gambling.
• 3:36
  Well,
• 3:36
  you know,
• 3:37
  first of all,
• 3:38
  you don't have to do sports at all.
• 3:39
  If you,
• 3:40
  if you as a person,
• 3:41
  as an individual,
• 3:41
  decide you don't wanna be involved in sports,
• 3:43
  uh,
• 3:44
  stuff at all,
• 3:44
  you can do culture.
• 3:46
  You can do finance.
• 3:47
  There was a big Fed decision market,
• 3:48
  uh,
• 3:49
  that happened today.
• 3:50
  You can do elections.
• 3:51
  You can do whatever you want.
• 3:52
  You can hedge it for your business.
• 3:53
  There's a million different ways,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:55
  you can use it.
• 3:55
  In fact,
• 3:56
  there's even KPIs,
• 3:57
  which we've talked about before,
• 3:58
  uh,
• 3:58
  key performance indicators for companies,
• 4:00
  which I find to be a much easier way to invest than just in the stock market
• 4:04
  when you're talking about companies.
• 4:05
  There's a million different things.
• 4:06
  It's up to you.
• 4:07
  This is kind of a theme of this segment.
• 4:09
  It's up to you.
• 4:11
  You do
• 4:12
  what you want to do because you're an individual,
• 4:14
  you make the choices that happen in your life.
• 4:15
  I know a lot of the people around here like to make the choices for you.
• 4:19
  I would,
• 4:20
  I would argue maybe you should be making the decisions for yourself.
• 4:24
  Personal responsibility is a little bit on the board here.
• 4:26
  The reason I bring this up is because of a slew of ads
• 4:29
  that have come out from some of the big prediction market companies.
• 4:31
  I wanna start with Polymarket.
• 4:33
  This is one
• 4:34
  that,
• 4:34
  uh,
• 4:34
  that has been running over the past
• 4:36
  week or two,
• 4:38
  from LeBron James and
• 4:40
  a lot of other celebrities.
• 4:41
  Uh,
• 4:42
  Polymarket's sparing no expense here,
• 4:44
  hiring almost every person I've ever seen in anything,
• 4:47
  uh,
• 4:48
  to do this particular commercial.
• 4:50
  Let me show it to you if you haven't seen it.
• 5:04
  It's live training.
• 5:05
  You gotta stay on your toes.
• 5:06
  Good morning,
• 5:06
  Eli.
• 5:07
  Hello,
• 5:07
  LeBron.
• 5:08
  Always be planning for Eli Manning
• 5:11
  just to hit that button.
• 5:13
  And now we play.
• 5:14
  Alright,
• 5:15
  beautiful day to be great,
• 5:15
  y'all.
• 5:16
  Love it,
• 5:16
  LeBron
• 5:17
  captain.
• 5:19
  Let's get to it.
• 5:20
  Hear you,
• 5:21
  hear you.
• 5:22
  OK,
• 5:23
  well,
• 5:23
  baby,
• 5:24
  let's get to it.
• 5:26
  John,
• 5:26
  John,
• 5:27
  that's my bad.
• 5:28
  It's all live trades,
• 5:29
  people
• 5:30
  trade ball money.
• 5:31
  Oh,
• 5:32
  love that.
• 5:38
  Hey,
• 5:39
  doesn't feel so good.
• 5:40
  Does it?
• 5:41
  You gotta chill out,
• 5:42
  man.
• 5:44
  Here's LeBron.
• 5:48
  Win win
• 5:52
  So there you go.
• 5:52
  It was the tweeted by,
• 5:53
  I guess,
• 5:53
  LeBron James
• 5:54
  account.
• 5:55
  Uh,
• 5:55
  in that is,
• 5:56
  I mean,
• 5:56
  just to give you a sense,
• 5:58
  uh,
• 5:58
  get LeBron James in there,
• 5:59
  Emily Radikowski,
• 6:01
  uh,
• 6:01
  Alexandria Daddario,
• 6:03
  um,
• 6:04
  There's a lot of names I actually I don't know.
• 6:06
  Uh,
• 6:06
  Spike Lee,
• 6:07
  I know,
• 6:07
  uh,
• 6:07
  I know him,
• 6:08
  Richard Sherman,
• 6:08
  I know,
• 6:09
  Derek Jeter,
• 6:10
  Reggie Bush,
• 6:10
  Rajon Rondo,
• 6:12
  uh,
• 6:12
  Eli Manning,
• 6:13
  Sue Bird,
• 6:14
  John Leguizamo,
• 6:15
  Craig Robinson,
• 6:16
  among others.
• 6:17
  It is a completely jam-packed,
• 6:19
  uh,
• 6:20
  with celebrities and,
• 6:21
  and sports,
• 6:21
  uh,
• 6:22
  figures
• 6:23
  through that ad.
• 6:24
  Now,
• 6:24
  It stirs up a lot of controversy.
• 6:26
  People get so mad about it.
• 6:28
  Uh,
• 6:29
  there was a partnership with,
• 6:30
  uh,
• 6:31
  Giannis and Kelshi that came out,
• 6:33
  uh,
• 6:33
  at the end of the season last year,
• 6:35
  and people were just like all
• 6:36
  going crazy over it
• 6:38
  in a negative way.
• 6:39
  And I,
• 6:40
  you know,
• 6:40
  I don't
• 6:41
  get it,
• 6:42
  frankly.
• 6:42
  I don't get it.
• 6:44
  I don't get it.
• 6:46
  You know,
• 6:47
  I think this is just something where we
• 6:48
  have become such a victimized society in general
• 6:53
  that we are constantly talking about things in that context,
• 6:56
  right?
• 6:57
  It's always,
• 6:58
  uh,
• 6:58
  well,
• 6:59
  someone,
• 6:59
  if someone loses money,
• 7:01
  they're being victimized.
• 7:02
  It was the old thing,
• 7:03
  I remember this being a thing for a while.
• 7:05
  It was called predatory loans.
• 7:07
  And it was like as if,
• 7:08
  uh,
• 7:08
  you know,
• 7:08
  uh,
• 7:09
  Blumhouse created a,
• 7:10
  a movie and it was about how these loans followed you around the house and then
• 7:15
  Uh,
• 7:15
  until you,
• 7:16
  until you took their money,
• 7:18
  uh,
• 7:18
  they continued to follow you around with their predatory loans.
• 7:22
  Look,
• 7:23
  obviously there are fraud
• 7:24
  type of accusations.
• 7:25
  Some of those companies were involved in that,
• 7:27
  but when it comes down to a predatory loan,
• 7:28
  like,
• 7:28
  you know,
• 7:29
  look,
• 7:29
  you're agreeing to,
• 7:30
  to that,
• 7:31
  um,
• 7:32
  and,
• 7:32
  you know,
• 7:32
  it's up to you,
• 7:34
  uh,
• 7:34
  to make a decision.
• 7:36
  Here,
• 7:36
  this is the same way they frame this,
• 7:37
  even though it makes absolutely no sense.
• 7:39
  People are going on these websites because they want to test their knowledge,
• 7:43
  they want to be able to potentially profit off of
• 7:45
  what they believe is true about the world.
• 7:47
  I mean,
• 7:47
  as I,
• 7:48
  as I mentioned,
• 7:49
  I mean,
• 7:49
  I kind of focus on elections and politics mostly,
• 7:52
  uh,
• 7:52
  but
• 7:53
  whatever you're interested to,
• 7:54
  there's something up there.
• 7:55
  If you care about who wins Love Island,
• 7:58
  you can go on there and you might say,
• 7:59
  well,
• 7:59
  that Love Island's not important.
• 8:00
  Well,
• 8:01
  it might not be important to you.
• 8:02
  I got news for you,
• 8:03
  hog futures aren't important to me.
• 8:06
  It's about you as an individual,
• 8:08
  your money,
• 8:09
  your choices,
• 8:10
  your life.
• 8:12
  And we've lost sight of that in this country.
• 8:15
  Every single time something goes wrong,
• 8:16
  and,
• 8:17
  and,
• 8:17
  you know,
• 8:18
  it's all of a sudden the fault of somebody else.
• 8:20
  It's never you,
• 8:22
  it's never the person who made the decision.
• 8:25
  It's always somebody else's fault.
• 8:28
  That's where we are right now.
• 8:30
  There's a piece I thought was interesting that kind of uh
• 8:33
  fired me up to do this monologue.
• 8:35
  It's called the,
• 8:35
  the LeBron James ad and why Polly Market is more hated than DraftKings,
• 8:39
  and I don't know,
• 8:40
  is that true?
• 8:40
  Maybe it is.
• 8:41
  I don't know.
• 8:42
  Uh,
• 8:42
  it's by,
• 8:43
  it's a House of Strauss,
• 8:44
  um,
• 8:44
  and
• 8:45
  you know,
• 8:46
  like,
• 8:46
  I,
• 8:47
  I've had this argument with a million people and you,
• 8:49
  you may know my opinions on it.
• 8:50
  Maybe I'll expand on it again at another time,
• 8:52
  but like
• 8:53
  we do this differently.
• 8:54
  There are people I'm sure who go out there and have,
• 8:57
  you know,
• 8:57
  40 team parlays and try to win all this,
• 8:59
  uh,
• 8:59
  money on sports and it,
• 9:00
  it,
• 9:01
  it very much seems like
• 9:02
  uh sports gambling.
• 9:03
  As I talked about yesterday,
• 9:04
  there are reasons why legally they're different.
• 9:07
  Um,
• 9:07
  and we have a million different things in our society,
• 9:10
  uh,
• 9:10
  that differ based on regulation,
• 9:12
  based on,
• 9:13
  uh,
• 9:13
  you know,
• 9:13
  uh,
• 9:14
  how you monetize it,
• 9:16
  uh,
• 9:16
  how the business is run,
• 9:18
  how,
• 9:18
  how all of it works,
• 9:19
  what are the,
• 9:20
  what's the back end,
• 9:21
  how do they operate?
• 9:22
  All those things are different.
• 9:23
  We have
• 9:24
  a million different examples of that.
• 9:25
  We went through that yesterday if you wanna go back and look at it.
• 9:28
  But even if you were just like,
• 9:29
  no,
• 9:29
  I just think this is gambling.
• 9:30
  It's just gambling,
• 9:31
  that's all it is.
• 9:32
  OK.
• 9:33
  Even if it is
• 9:34
  gambling,
• 9:34
  if that's what you believe.
• 9:37
  Quite clearly,
• 9:38
  Polymarket,
• 9:40
  Calci,
• 9:41
  uh Novig,
• 9:42
  Predict it,
• 9:43
  uh,
• 9:44
  Limitless,
• 9:44
  whatever prediction market you're talking about,
• 9:46
  gives you a better experience,
• 9:49
  and I think a more customer-friendly experience
• 9:52
  than,
• 9:53
  uh,
• 9:53
  many of the,
• 9:54
  uh,
• 9:54
  sort of traditional sports betting applications.
• 9:58
  And,
• 9:58
  you know,
• 9:59
  the reason for that,
• 10:00
  there's a,
• 10:00
  there's a kind of a massive difference at the core of this.
• 10:04
  One of the differences,
• 10:05
  and I think maybe the biggest one from a company standpoint,
• 10:08
  is that unlike,
• 10:10
  uh,
• 10:10
  uh,
• 10:10
  you know,
• 10:10
  a uh traditional gambling outlet,
• 10:14
  A gambling outlet wants to give you odds,
• 10:16
  and they,
• 10:16
  they will spread the odds,
• 10:17
  right?
• 10:17
  Like there is a spread uh uh between
• 10:20
  the price you'll get on one team and the other team,
• 10:22
  and they're able to pocket a bunch of money because of that.
• 10:26
  They are incentivized to want you to lose.
• 10:30
  Not exclusively,
• 10:31
  cause they don't want you to go away forever,
• 10:32
  but obviously,
• 10:33
  like,
• 10:33
  when they lose a bet,
• 10:34
  they are giving you money.
• 10:36
  When they,
• 10:36
  when you win a bet,
• 10:38
  they're giving you money.
• 10:39
  When uh you lose a bet,
• 10:41
  you're giving them money,
• 10:42
  right?
• 10:42
  It's like that simple.
• 10:43
  That's how that whole model operates.
• 10:45
  And again,
• 10:45
  I am not a prude,
• 10:47
  I am not a guy who cares if you wanna spend your money uh
• 10:50
  on sports gambling.
• 10:52
  Uh,
• 10:52
  it's up to you.
• 10:52
  If you,
• 10:52
  if that's what you wanna do,
• 10:53
  I'm fine with it,
• 10:54
  and I don't have any problem with these companies either,
• 10:56
  frankly.
• 10:57
  If they wanna run that model,
• 10:58
  they can.
• 10:59
  But when you're comparing the two,
• 11:01
  prediction markets do something
• 11:02
  totally different.
• 11:04
  Calci,
• 11:04
  polymarket,
• 11:05
  they are not incentivized for you to lose.
• 11:08
  People are like,
• 11:08
  oh gosh,
• 11:09
  they're fixing the odds,
• 11:10
  they're doing,
• 11:10
  they don't have any
• 11:11
  reason to do that.
• 11:13
  Because when you lose your money on polymarket on on Calci,
• 11:17
  What that money is going to another trader.
• 11:20
  What polymarketing Cal should care about is that you're trading at all.
• 11:24
  If you're on the site
• 11:25
  and you go back and forth and you trade,
• 11:27
  they're going to take,
• 11:29
  uh,
• 11:29
  a small fee on part of that transaction.
• 11:32
  Um,
• 11:33
  I find that arrangement to be wonderful,
• 11:35
  frankly.
• 11:35
  I,
• 11:35
  I,
• 11:36
  I think they provide a great service and I think the fees are reasonable.
• 11:39
  I'm not a big complainer about that.
• 11:40
  I do try to avoid them as much as I can,
• 11:42
  and there are ways to do that,
• 11:44
  which we've talked about and can talk about again,
• 11:46
  um,
• 11:46
  but.
• 11:47
  When you're thinking about this arrangement,
• 11:49
  if I lose $1000 on DraftKings,
• 11:52
  uh,
• 11:52
  DraftKings gets my $1000.
• 11:54
  If I lose $1000 on Calsie,
• 11:56
  Calsie does not get my $1000.
• 11:58
  It goes to some other person in another place
• 12:00
  who was smarter than me in that decision.
• 12:03
  They won.
• 12:04
  They were on the right side of the investment,
• 12:06
  I was on the wrong side of it.
• 12:08
  And Cal
• 12:09
  She takes,
• 12:09
  I don't know,
• 12:10
  $1000.10 dollars,
• 12:11
  I don't know what it is.
• 12:12
  Depends on how,
• 12:13
  uh,
• 12:13
  you know,
• 12:14
  depends on some details there,
• 12:15
  but a small percentage of that will go to them.
• 12:17
  It's a totally different thing.
• 12:19
  Not to mention,
• 12:20
  if you're actually good at sports betting,
• 12:22
  and most people aren't,
• 12:24
  some people are though.
• 12:26
  And people who are professionals,
• 12:27
  people who can actually do this for a living,
• 12:29
  they've got all these complicated algorithms.
• 12:31
  If you go on a gambling site and you try to do that,
• 12:34
  when you start winning,
• 12:36
  they start shutting you down.
• 12:38
  They start limiting you.
• 12:39
  That's a smart move from the company,
• 12:42
  right?
• 12:42
  Because their business is based on whether you win or lose.
• 12:45
  So if you're winning all the time and they're just paying you money,
• 12:48
  that's more like
• 12:49
  uh an employee than it is a customer.
• 12:52
  So,
• 12:53
  they don't wanna do that.
• 12:54
  So when they do that,
• 12:55
  they say,
• 12:55
  OK,
• 12:55
  hey,
• 12:56
  you can continue to bet money on this site,
• 12:58
  but instead,
• 12:59
  we're going to limit you to 20 bucks a bet.
• 13:02
  So if you're a professional gambler,
• 13:03
  obviously that makes no sense,
• 13:05
  you can't get anything out of that and you have to leave.
• 13:07
  Well,
• 13:08
  that's the total reverse from Polly Market and Calsie
• 13:11
  and Novig and all the others.
• 13:13
  You have a situation there where they can't limit you,
• 13:16
  they don't limit you.
• 13:17
  You can put literally any amount of money that you have
• 13:20
  on these sites,
• 13:21
  um,
• 13:22
  and you can,
• 13:23
  if you are winning,
• 13:24
  continue to go,
• 13:25
  they won't stop you.
• 13:26
  Um,
• 13:27
  now look,
• 13:27
  there's risk with that.
• 13:29
  It's a risk that you,
• 13:31
  as a person,
• 13:32
  are supposed to manage
• 13:34
  for yourself.
• 13:36
  Welcome to America,
• 13:38
  frankly,
• 13:39
  right?
• 13:39
  Like that's what,
• 13:39
  that's the way the world's supposed to work.
• 13:42
  The same way you can dump
• 13:43
  any amount of money into the stock market,
• 13:45
  whether you have knowledge or not about it.
• 13:48
  The same thing happens here when
• 13:50
  you're talking about prediction market investments,
• 13:52
  and this is why often when we talk about these things,
• 13:54
  if I say when you,
• 13:55
  when you start out,
• 13:56
  start small,
• 13:57
  it's OK.
• 13:57
  You don't need to be embarrassed.
• 13:59
  You have to put 5 bucks on there,
• 14:01
  uh,
• 14:01
  to put 10 bucks on there,
• 14:02
  try it out,
• 14:03
  maybe you will lose it,
• 14:05
  but that's good to lose 10 bucks instead of 1000.
• 14:08
  All this to be said is,
• 14:10
  uh,
• 14:10
  this particular article goes through some of this.
• 14:12
  Uh,
• 14:13
  Ethan Strauss is the author of this.
• 14:15
  He says,
• 14:15
  personally,
• 14:16
  I dislike prediction markets less than sports books
• 14:18
  while conceding that they may present more potentially troubling externalities.
• 14:22
  He's talking,
• 14:22
  I think he's
• 14:23
  referring to stuff,
• 14:24
  you know,
• 14:24
  some of the stuff that's been out there about like,
• 14:26
  oh gosh,
• 14:26
  you're betting on war or
• 14:27
  betting on death,
• 14:28
  which
• 14:28
  Most of that stuff is completely illegal in the United States anyway.
• 14:31
  Um,
• 14:32
  why?
• 14:32
  Because on an individual level,
• 14:33
  losing is less guaranteed.
• 14:34
  As I've pointed out,
• 14:35
  the sports gambling companies literally won't let you win long term.
• 14:38
  If you're good at sports betting,
• 14:39
  you'll be algorithmically,
• 14:41
  algorithmically blocked from participation.
• 14:44
  This means the sports book business model
• 14:46
  disproportionately relies on soaking suckers.
• 14:50
  Uh,
• 14:50
  goes on to talk about
• 14:52
  prediction markets will let you win repeatedly,
• 14:54
  if you can pull that off because they run
• 14:56
  an exchange where you're matched with other traders.
• 14:58
  This is similar to how poker websites in the turn of the millennium operated.
• 15:02
  Sports books take the other side of your bet,
• 15:04
  so they won't just allow repeat losses on their end.
• 15:08
  Um,
• 15:08
  this is a fascinating stat though.
• 15:09
  This is one I,
• 15:10
  I had heard this and I hadn't seen it though,
• 15:12
  uh,
• 15:12
  in detail,
• 15:13
  but I had seen something like this before.
• 15:15
  But Pew Research did a survey of 12,000 prediction market traders.
• 15:20
  Now,
• 15:20
  how often have you heard from people
• 15:22
  on all sides of the aisle,
• 15:23
  frankly,
• 15:23
  oh gosh,
• 15:24
  this is,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:24
  I was talking to Dave about it today.
• 15:26
  He was even joking about it.
• 15:27
  Oh gosh,
• 15:28
  well,
• 15:28
  you're just victimizing young people and clearing
• 15:30
  out the young men's bank accounts.
• 15:32
  Here,
• 15:32
  let me give you the actual facts about what happens on,
• 15:35
  this is a study of polymarket.
• 15:37
  Pew Research did a survey of 12,000,
• 15:40
  a lot.
• 15:40
  That's a big number,
• 15:41
  by the way,
• 15:41
  bigger,
• 15:42
  much bigger
• 15:43
  than the number.
• 15:43
  We just did a whole
• 15:44
  story yesterday on a national
• 15:46
  presidential,
• 15:47
  uh,
• 15:47
  or a national midterm survey from the New York Times,
• 15:51
  and they talked to 1500 people.
• 15:53
  This is a survey of 12,000 prediction market traders.
• 15:56
  The typical polymarket user largely broke even
• 16:00
  during the six-week period we examined.
• 16:02
  The average trader spent a little over $600 on the site
• 16:05
  with a net loss of less.
• 16:08
  Then $2.
• 16:12
  More than half of traders gained or lost less than $100
• 16:16
  so 58%.
• 16:17
  So basically,
• 16:18
  the overwhelming majority of people
• 16:21
  had a little bit of up or a little bit of down
• 16:24
  for an average of less than $2 down.
• 16:27
  Now look,
• 16:31
  I've uh bet on sports before.
• 16:33
  Uh,
• 16:33
  I usually lose,
• 16:34
  uh,
• 16:34
  you know,
• 16:35
  I wouldn't say that I'm particularly good at it.
• 16:37
  It's fun,
• 16:37
  it's entertainment for me,
• 16:38
  uh,
• 16:38
  from time to time.
• 16:40
  Uh,
• 16:40
  but when you're talking about this,
• 16:41
  I've been able to be profitable for well over a decade
• 16:44
  throughout
• 16:45
  basically every single election cycle since I started.
• 16:48
  The reason is not because I'm a genius.
• 16:50
  I mean,
• 16:50
  the average person is basically breaking even.
• 16:53
  Can you be slightly above average?
• 16:54
  That's what we're trying to attempt here.
• 16:56
  And when you are slightly above average
• 16:59
  understanding politics,
• 16:59
  you're able to do well
• 17:01
  on prediction market sites.
• 17:02
  Of course,
• 17:03
  this is why the Elizabeth Warrens of the world wanna shut them down.
• 17:07
  This is what they want
• 17:09
  Um,
• 17:09
  but you can't,
• 17:10
  it's
• 17:11
  some,
• 17:12
  yeah,
• 17:12
  just like every investment,
• 17:13
  yes,
• 17:14
  some people will win,
• 17:15
  some people will lose.
• 17:15
  That's what investing is.
• 17:18
  It's about,
• 17:18
  it is about taking on risk,
• 17:20
  managing that risk for sure.
• 17:22
  You should do that.
• 17:23
  But whose responsibility is that?
• 17:25
  I've got news for you,
• 17:26
  it's yours.
• 17:28
  You are an adult.
• 17:30
  You are a person who should be able to manage their risk,
• 17:33
  and if you can't,
• 17:34
  look,
• 17:34
  it's OK,
• 17:35
  it's not for everybody.
• 17:36
  Use these sites for the information they provide.
• 17:39
  That's about what 75% of people do.
• 17:41
  They go to these sites,
• 17:41
  they read stats about the election,
• 17:43
  try to understand the world a little bit better.
• 17:45
  That's the overwhelming use of prediction markets.
• 17:48
  If you want to trade in them,
• 17:49
  there is a risk of loss,
• 17:51
  just like every investment you will ever be in,
• 17:53
  in your entire life.
• 17:55
  But you should be able to look at this and say,
• 17:58
  well,
• 17:58
  wait a minute.
• 17:59
  Why am I the person
• 18:01
  who,
• 18:01
  uh,
• 18:02
  who is res isn't responsible for this?
• 18:04
  Why is somebody else?
• 18:06
  Personal responsibility is fun.
• 18:07
  Listen,
• 18:08
  listen to the way they talk about this.
• 18:09
  This is a,
• 18:09
  a daily fan fantasy analyst.
• 18:12
  Quote,
• 18:13
  even as a viewer who knows Polly Market is the devil.
• 18:18
  We can't hate on uh any specific celebrity in the commercial
• 18:22
  for being there because there are just too many.
• 18:24
  Uh,
• 18:25
  and,
• 18:25
  uh,
• 18:25
  we can't,
• 18:26
  uh,
• 18:26
  it creates a bystander effect where they all
• 18:29
  can assume others wouldn't promote an evil company.
• 18:33
  Because,
• 18:33
  uh,
• 18:34
  because of all of the moral high ground of daily fantasy,
• 18:38
  I guess we're supposed to believe that.
• 18:39
  Look,
• 18:40
  that,
• 18:40
  I like,
• 18:41
  by the way,
• 18:41
  I like daily fantasy too.
• 18:42
  It's fun.
• 18:43
  All this to say,
• 18:45
  it is up to you and your responsibility
• 18:47
  to manage your own life.
• 18:48
  I,
• 18:48
  I,
• 18:48
  I thought that's what this country was.
• 18:51
  I really did.
• 18:52
  At least for a while,
• 18:52
  it seemed to be that way.
• 18:53
  Now,
• 18:54
  everyone,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:54
  we have to grow the government every day
• 18:56
  to oversee every aspect of your freaking life.
• 18:59
  And I just don't understand why we would want that.
• 19:03
  Now Novig has a,
• 19:04
  a big ad that's making some news as well.
• 19:06
  They
• 19:07
  can see why you would want this.
• 19:08
  This is Sydney Sweeney.
• 19:10
  Leaves little to the imagination and a provocative new campaign,
• 19:13
  and I wanna
• 19:14
  lay this out to you in that
• 19:15
  I,
• 19:15
  we were talking about doing this segment,
• 19:17
  um,
• 19:17
  and,
• 19:18
  uh,
• 19:18
  my producer Adam said,
• 19:19
  uh,
• 19:19
  well,
• 19:19
  I don't think we can
• 19:20
  show that ad because it's honestly,
• 19:22
  there's,
• 19:22
  it's a very racy,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:24
  racy ad.
• 19:24
  I mean,
• 19:25
  it's Sydney Sweeney,
• 19:26
  right?
• 19:26
  Sydney Sweeney,
• 19:27
  she's very,
• 19:27
  very,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  good looking.
• 19:28
  She likes,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:29
  to show you that she's good looking.
• 19:31
  And I said,
• 19:31
  well,
• 19:31
  just pull.
• 19:33
  Just pull a clip of whatever you think we can play,
• 19:35
  just pull that so people understand what it is.
• 19:38
  So I have not seen this yet,
• 19:39
  but
• 19:40
  this is the entirety of the ad that he thought we could actually play.
• 19:44
  Watch.
• 19:51
  Thinking of sports?
• 19:53
  Prove it.
• 19:54
  No big is.
• 19:56
  Just sports.
• 19:59
  That's it.
• 20:05
  What was that?
• 20:06
  Was that 10 seconds?
• 20:09
  1012,
• 20:10
  that was 12 big seconds you got there of Sydney Sweeney.
• 20:13
  Now one of the things that's interesting is she mentioned it a little bit there,
• 20:15
  it's just sports.
• 20:16
  Novig is a prediction market that
• 20:18
  just does sports.
• 20:18
  They don't do politics or anything like that.
• 20:20
  So,
• 20:20
  you know,
• 20:21
  nothing against them.
• 20:21
  Uh,
• 20:21
  we like,
• 20:22
  we like the sports side as well,
• 20:23
  but it's,
• 20:23
  you know,
• 20:24
  I,
• 20:24
  I like the prediction market side for,
• 20:25
  uh,
• 20:26
  for politics,
• 20:26
  of course,
• 20:27
  as well.
• 20:28
  Uh,
• 20:28
  people are pissed off about this.
• 20:29
  For some reason,
• 20:30
  female athletes are accusing Sydney Sweeney
• 20:32
  of sexualizing women in sports.
• 20:35
  First of all,
• 20:35
  she's
• 20:36
  just saying she's,
• 20:37
  you know,
• 20:38
  she's talking about sports.
• 20:39
  I don't know she's not sexualizing women in sports,
• 20:41
  she's sexualizing herself.
• 20:42
  I mean,
• 20:43
  but again,
• 20:44
  her own choice,
• 20:45
  kind of a theme of this segment,
• 20:47
  she's making a choice.
• 20:51
  It's all controversial,
• 20:53
  I guess,
• 20:53
  though,
• 20:53
  because,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:54
  she's,
• 20:54
  she's doing this.
• 20:55
  And,
• 20:55
  you know,
• 20:55
  it's funny because,
• 20:56
  of course,
• 20:56
  like
• 20:57
  ESPN has been doing,
• 20:58
  what is that called?
• 20:59
  The Body Issue or something.
• 21:01
  Not to mention
• 21:01
  uh Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue and everything else,
• 21:04
  but
• 21:04
  the Body Issue is one where like all these
• 21:06
  athletes are just randomly naked for some reason.
• 21:08
  Most of them,
• 21:09
  I don't really understand why we're seeing that.
• 21:11
  Um,
• 21:12
  but look,
• 21:13
  This stuff works as we know,
• 21:15
  uh,
• 21:16
  but the,
• 21:17
  uh,
• 21:17
  Novik founder
• 21:18
  and CEO tweeted this today.
• 21:20
  We just crossed a billion dollars in trading volume.
• 21:22
  Uh,
• 21:23
  we were at $0 then we ran that ad,
• 21:25
  now we're at a billion dollars.
• 21:26
  That's not quite true,
• 21:28
  but they're doing very well,
• 21:29
  so congratulations,
• 21:30
  uh,
• 21:30
  to them.
• 21:31
  Um,
• 21:31
  I just feel like
• 21:33
  we are losing sight of our connection to kind
• 21:35
  of one of the foundational principles of this country,
• 21:38
  which is
• 21:39
  personal responsibility.
• 21:41
  We,
• 21:42
  we have to kind of stop asking to be nannied by everybody.
• 21:46
  You know,
• 21:47
  like I shouldn't be going,
• 21:48
  I shouldn't be booking a babysitter to get through my day to day life.
• 21:51
  I'm an adult.
• 21:52
  You're an adult.
• 21:54
  If you are an adult and you have some money,
• 21:55
  you want to use it as entertainment on a sports betting site,
• 21:57
  fine.
• 21:59
  You want to use it in daily fantasy sports,
• 22:00
  great.
• 22:02
  You might like say,
• 22:03
  you know what,
• 22:03
  instead of spending $100 on going to a game,
• 22:05
  I'd rather sit sit at home in my comfort of my home and,
• 22:08
  and bet $100 on a game
• 22:10
  and watch it from there.
• 22:12
  Or if you are into the prediction market thing like I am,
• 22:15
  you might look at it as a serious part of your portfolio.
• 22:17
  That's what we do here.
• 22:18
  We are not looking to,
• 22:20
  we're not looking for,
• 22:20
  you know,
• 22:21
  crazy,
• 22:21
  uh,
• 22:22
  YOLO DG stuff here.
• 22:24
  That's not what we do.
• 22:25
  And that's one of the reasons why we've been consistently
• 22:27
  winning throughout this election cycle and so many before it.
• 22:30
  That's what we do here.
• 22:31
  We wanna make sure that you understand.
• 22:33
  Uh,
• 22:34
  what we offer
• 22:35
  and it is at predictableShow.com.
• 22:37
  I would encourage you if you are a person who
• 22:40
  can take personal responsibility
• 22:42
  and wants to get into these markets,
• 22:44
  go to predictableShow.com.
• 22:45
  I have a lot of people who are in,
• 22:46
  in there have been saying,
• 22:47
  hey,
• 22:47
  you know,
• 22:48
  look,
• 22:48
  we've already paid for our entire.
• 22:49
  Uh,
• 22:50
  membership
• 22:51
  just on a couple of weeks of the primary,
• 22:53
  there's so much more to come in November,
• 22:55
  so much to build for.
• 22:55
  There's over 300 of my personal
• 22:58
  selections,
• 22:58
  what I have positions on in the market,
• 23:01
  those get updated all the time.
• 23:02
  We've got the predictable market consensus on every Senate race
• 23:05
  where you can see not only what the,
• 23:07
  the experts are saying in a way that's really distilled.
• 23:10
  I'm talking about tons and tons of data.
• 23:12
  I spent a lot of time building this thing,
• 23:14
  um,
• 23:14
  and you have that.
• 23:16
  Alongside
• 23:17
  of the prediction market data,
• 23:18
  so you can see where those gaps are and look for those opportunities.
• 23:21
  There are many,
• 23:21
  there's some with double digit gaps,
• 23:24
  you know,
• 23:24
  15,
• 23:25
  20% differences between what
• 23:27
  experts and polls are saying and what prediction markets are saying.
• 23:30
  Are there opportunities there?
• 23:31
  Maybe the prediction markets are completely right.
• 23:33
  I don't know,
• 23:33
  but it's worth looking at it
• 23:35
  as well.
• 23:35
  So that's all there.
• 23:36
  And then tomorrow we're gonna break down kind
• 23:38
  of like a look at the Senate completely.
• 23:40
  Where do we stand right now?
• 23:41
  I want you to come back on tomorrow's show so we can kind of explain
• 23:44
  not just with the prediction market tie,
• 23:46
  but just the election too.
• 23:47
  Who's going to be controlling the Senate?
• 23:49
  How close is it?
• 23:49
  It's close,
• 23:50
  I'll tell you that.
• 23:51
  Uh,
• 23:51
  and,
• 23:51
  uh,
• 23:52
  so much more.
• 23:52
  It's all coming up tomorrow's program.
• 23:54
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 23:55
  It's predictable show.com.
• 23:57
  More in a second.
• 24:18
  It's time for our candidate countdown every single day on this program.
• 24:21
  Until from now until the election,
• 24:22
  we're gonna give you one race that we think is interesting.
• 24:24
  There might be value there
• 24:26
  for you to look at.
• 24:27
  As I mentioned,
• 24:27
  all of my picks are up at predictableShow.com.
• 24:30
  Over 300 of them,
• 24:32
  which,
• 24:32
  you know,
• 24:33
  over every single topic basically.
• 24:35
  But
• 24:35
  the interesting part about that is,
• 24:37
  uh,
• 24:37
  you just gotta be a premium subscriber,
• 24:38
  you get to see them all.
• 24:39
  Now we,
• 24:40
  we are doing these races here leading up to the election.
• 24:43
  In November
• 24:44
  and we have our candidate countdown today.
• 24:47
  There's 48 days until the midterm election and our candidate of the day today is.
• 24:55
  Yeah,
• 24:55
  there you go.
• 24:56
  Senator Amy Klobuchar.
• 24:57
  You might say,
• 24:58
  oh gosh,
• 24:58
  Amy Klobuchar,
• 24:59
  really?
• 25:00
  Yes,
• 25:00
  yes,
• 25:00
  she's running again
• 25:02
  for the 500th time.
• 25:05
  And I think there's some interesting value on this.
• 25:06
  Let me kind of lay this case out for you.
• 25:09
  Cause you gotta dive a little bit deeper into this one to find any value.
• 25:13
  Here is,
• 25:13
  uh,
• 25:13
  what the polls look like,
• 25:14
  and this is a similar theme that you'll see me coming
• 25:17
  back to over and over and over and over again.
• 25:19
  When we find a,
• 25:21
  maybe an outlier poll that shows a,
• 25:23
  a race that looks like there's a significant margin but shows it much,
• 25:27
  much closer.
• 25:28
  We love to jump on those opportunities because usually
• 25:31
  you're getting a little bit of extra value.
• 25:33
  Uh,
• 25:33
  for those listening on podcasts,
• 25:35
  uh,
• 25:35
  you go back to June,
• 25:36
  you see polls,
• 25:37
  uh,
• 25:37
  of Klobuchar anyway from,
• 25:39
  from up by 8 points
• 25:41
  over Lisa Demuth.
• 25:42
  By the way,
• 25:42
  this is the,
• 25:43
  uh,
• 25:43
  governor's race.
• 25:44
  She's been a senator forever.
• 25:45
  She's running for governor this time.
• 25:46
  Uh,
• 25:46
  from 8 to 17 points,
• 25:48
  she's led there.
• 25:48
  In August,
• 25:49
  a poll had her up 16
• 25:51
  in,
• 25:51
  uh,
• 25:52
  in,
• 25:53
  uh,
• 25:54
  in early September
• 25:55
  poll had Klobuchar up by 10%.
• 25:57
  And then a recent poll that just came out like I think today
• 26:00
  has Klobuchar only up by 2,
• 26:02
  and that's one of the reasons why I like looking for value at this particular
• 26:05
  point.
• 26:06
  Now you might say,
• 26:07
  OK,
• 26:07
  uh,
• 26:09
  yes,
• 26:09
  she's winning.
• 26:10
  How much is she winning by,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:12
  you know,
• 26:13
  is a question.
• 26:14
  Uh,
• 26:14
  and is this though,
• 26:16
  the environment
• 26:17
  that you would see a Minnesota
• 26:19
  governor,
• 26:20
  someone who's well known in the state with lots and
• 26:22
  lots of funding and lots and lots of connections,
• 26:23
  is that the type of race she's going to lose?
• 26:25
  So that's kind of my starting point here.
• 26:27
  Let me go back to her electoral history real quick.
• 26:29
  I'll show you 2022 1st.
• 26:31
  This is the,
• 26:32
  well,
• 26:32
  this is not her electoral history.
• 26:33
  This is the governor's race.
• 26:35
  So think of
• 26:35
  the worst possible governor you could have.
• 26:38
  Well,
• 26:38
  wow,
• 26:38
  we found him.
• 26:39
  Tim Walls.
• 26:40
  Tim Walls ran in 2022 and won the race 52
• 26:46
  to 45.
• 26:47
  So a seven-point
• 26:48
  win
• 26:49
  for Tim Walls in 2022.
• 26:52
  And you think of 2022,
• 26:53
  it's the midterms for Biden.
• 26:55
  So to put that in perspective,
• 26:56
  kind of a Republican leaning year.
• 26:59
  Tim Walls,
• 26:59
  even as a completely horrible governor in every single way,
• 27:03
  winds up still winning there.
• 27:05
  Now if you rewind four years before that,
• 27:07
  you have the alternate situation,
• 27:09
  and this is a year we're gonna go back to a lot
• 27:11
  because 2018 is setting up as a similar type of year
• 27:15
  to what we're looking at
• 27:16
  in 2026.
• 27:18
  Uh,
• 27:18
  it was a Democratic year.
• 27:20
  It was Trump's.
• 27:21
  First term,
• 27:23
  first midterm,
• 27:24
  right?
• 27:24
  This is a second term,
• 27:25
  first midterm.
• 27:27
  We are gonna look back at 2018 a lot.
• 27:29
  That race did not go well for Republicans.
• 27:31
  What happened in Minnesota then?
• 27:32
  Tim Walls ran there too.
• 27:33
  By the way,
• 27:33
  did I mention Tim Walls terrible.
• 27:35
  Uh,
• 27:36
  54% for Walls,
• 27:37
  42%
• 27:39
  for Jeff Johnson,
• 27:41
  the Republican,
• 27:42
  a
• 27:44
  12-point lead there.
• 27:46
  So,
• 27:46
  that was their,
• 27:47
  uh,
• 27:47
  leadback.
• 27:47
  So you got a 12-point lead.
• 27:49
  That's kind of what we're looking at as a margin.
• 27:51
  Now,
• 27:52
  Klobuchar,
• 27:52
  every time she's won
• 27:54
  or run,
• 27:54
  she's,
• 27:55
  uh,
• 27:55
  statewide as a senator,
• 27:56
  she's won big,
• 27:57
  20 points,
• 27:58
  35 points,
• 27:58
  24 points,
• 27:59
  15 points.
• 28:01
  Perhaps the most important number to think about is,
• 28:04
  um,
• 28:05
  her number in 2024.
• 28:07
  She ran for Senate again,
• 28:08
  she won.
• 28:10
  As you know,
• 28:11
  Kamala Harris also won.
• 28:13
  In Minnesota,
• 28:14
  uh,
• 28:14
  it was a state that is on the fringes of that purple conversation,
• 28:17
  right?
• 28:18
  When
• 28:18
  in a great year for Republicans,
• 28:20
  Minnesota's kind of in play,
• 28:22
  right?
• 28:22
  Uh,
• 28:23
  in a bad year for Republicans,
• 28:24
  it's,
• 28:24
  it's definitely not in play.
• 28:26
  Uh,
• 28:26
  in a normal year,
• 28:27
  it's a blue leaning state but on the fringes of purple.
• 28:30
  So,
• 28:31
  Uh,
• 28:31
  in 2024,
• 28:32
  it was a good year,
• 28:33
  not a great year,
• 28:34
  but a good year for Republicans generally,
• 28:36
  and Kamala Harris did win.
• 28:38
  She won by 4.2% points.
• 28:41
  Klobuchar,
• 28:41
  however,
• 28:42
  in the same race,
• 28:42
  won by 15.7%,
• 28:44
  so she outperformed Harris by about 11 points.
• 28:46
  She's actually
• 28:47
  I mean,
• 28:48
  I don't,
• 28:48
  I'm not a Klobuchar fan by any
• 28:50
  means,
• 28:51
  but she is,
• 28:52
  uh,
• 28:52
  she does do well electorally,
• 28:54
  and that's one of the reasons why people talk about
• 28:56
  her as a potential presidential candidate at some point,
• 28:59
  why she,
• 28:59
  uh,
• 28:59
  is in that conversation because she's seen as one of these,
• 29:02
  well,
• 29:02
  she can appeal to people in the middle of the road
• 29:04
  type of Democrats,
• 29:06
  unlike some of the,
• 29:06
  uh,
• 29:07
  the,
• 29:07
  you know,
• 29:07
  the Abdul El Sayed's of the world.
• 29:10
  Uh,
• 29:10
  every poll so far has shown,
• 29:12
  uh,
• 29:13
  Klobuchar ahead in this race,
• 29:15
  as you saw,
• 29:16
  uh,
• 29:16
  she's very strong with independents.
• 29:18
  She does well there and runs ahead of most of the candidates with independents.
• 29:22
  She also raises a lot more money.
• 29:24
  She's raised about 6 times as much as her Republican opponent here.
• 29:28
  Um,
• 29:29
  and of course she's very,
• 29:30
  very well known.
• 29:31
  Now,
• 29:32
  uh,
• 29:32
  just to give you the other side of this,
• 29:33
  what's the,
• 29:34
  what's the position for risk here?
• 29:36
  Uh,
• 29:36
  well,
• 29:37
  Minnesota is,
• 29:38
  you know,
• 29:38
  can be closer.
• 29:39
  Harris only won by 4 points.
• 29:40
  Like
• 29:41
  maybe they don't like her as much as a governor and they like her as a senator.
• 29:43
  Maybe it sticks a little bit closer.
• 29:45
  Um,
• 29:46
  Republicans have been close in other statewide races.
• 29:48
  It's not always a blowout for Republicans.
• 29:50
  They don't,
• 29:51
  this isn't a blue,
• 29:52
  blue,
• 29:52
  blue state.
• 29:53
  It is,
• 29:54
  as I said,
• 29:54
  on the fringes of purple,
• 29:56
  and sometimes Republicans can be,
• 29:57
  um,
• 29:58
  uh,
• 29:59
  um,
• 30:00
  uh,
• 30:00
  competitive,
• 30:01
  particularly when weak candidates run.
• 30:02
  2022,
• 30:03
  for example,
• 30:04
  Keith Ellison ran
• 30:05
  and won by less than a point.
• 30:07
  But Keith Ellison is a bad candidate and Klobuchar again,
• 30:11
  whatever you think about her personally and her politics personally,
• 30:15
  uh,
• 30:15
  she's not a bad candidate she typically outperforms
• 30:18
  normal Democrats,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:20
  on a,
• 30:20
  on,
• 30:20
  on a,
• 30:21
  on a basis of,
• 30:22
  of just comparison so.
• 30:24
  Uh,
• 30:24
  overall,
• 30:25
  uh,
• 30:25
  she's a pretty strong candidate,
• 30:26
  and so this is what the market looks like
• 30:28
  and it reflects that she's a strong candidate already.
• 30:30
  Uh,
• 30:30
  here's the live market here,
• 30:32
  we're gonna use Calshi,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:34
  for this particular one.
• 30:35
  Amy Klobuchar is at 94.5% chance to win.
• 30:39
  Now you might say that's not very sexy.
• 30:42
  It really,
• 30:43
  I mean,
• 30:43
  look,
• 30:44
  much better than your bank account.
• 30:46
  Uh,
• 30:46
  5% over two months,
• 30:48
  it's actually a little bit less than 2 months,
• 30:49
  but 5% over two months,
• 30:50
  you're looking at a 30% annual percentage rate.
• 30:53
  Uh,
• 30:53
  it's a little bit higher than that,
• 30:55
  probably like mid-thirties or so.
• 30:57
  There's nothing wrong with that sort of return.
• 30:59
  If you have money in the bank,
• 31:00
  you can put it into Calsie,
• 31:02
  uh,
• 31:02
  and Calsie will,
• 31:03
  if you,
• 31:04
  if Klobuchar wins,
• 31:04
  which I do expect her to do.
• 31:06
  Uh,
• 31:07
  well,
• 31:07
  you'll get 5.5%,
• 31:09
  um,
• 31:10
  uh,
• 31:10
  on your,
• 31:10
  well,
• 31:11
  $5.5
• 31:12
  for every $94.5
• 31:13
  that you invest.
• 31:14
  So that's what,
• 31:14
  6,
• 31:15
  66.5% over 50 days.
• 31:18
  There are worse things to do with your money than that.
• 31:21
  Uh,
• 31:21
  I will say,
• 31:22
  but
• 31:23
  it's not a huge,
• 31:24
  huge margin,
• 31:25
  uh,
• 31:25
  there.
• 31:26
  I wanna
• 31:27
  instead go a little bit deeper here cause I,
• 31:28
  I have no problem with that.
• 31:29
  And but I do have a position on Amy Klobuchar to win this race.
• 31:32
  If I can get her in the low 90s,
• 31:33
  I'm thrilled with it.
• 31:34
  I'm hoping this poll moves it lower and I might grab more,
• 31:37
  um,
• 31:37
  because I'm pretty confident she's going to win.
• 31:40
  Going at a uh a layer deeper than that though.
• 31:44
  We have the margin markets,
• 31:45
  and this is something that happens,
• 31:47
  uh,
• 31:47
  this is basically available on every big election.
• 31:49
  It's not always available,
• 31:51
  but usually it is.
• 31:52
  And,
• 31:53
  uh,
• 31:53
  if you don't know margin markets,
• 31:54
  basically what it is is not just who's gonna win,
• 31:57
  but who's gonna win
• 31:58
  and by how much.
• 31:59
  OK,
• 32:00
  so will Amy Klobuchar
• 32:01
  win?
• 32:02
  There's a market for that,
• 32:03
  but there's also will an Amy Klobuchar win by 3 points or more
• 32:06
  margin,
• 32:07
  uh,
• 32:07
  market,
• 32:08
  so.
• 32:09
  They take all the data in these margin markets and Calci
• 32:13
  will combine it into a projection.
• 32:15
  What do the markets actually believe right now the margin will be?
• 32:19
  This is what that looks like as of a couple hours ago.
• 32:22
  Minnesota Governor margin of victory 13%.
• 32:25
  You see it dropping.
• 32:26
  I assume that's probably from this recent poll,
• 32:28
  but 13%
• 32:30
  is that difference.
• 32:32
  What they believe
• 32:33
  Klobuchar is going to win by 13%.
• 32:34
  Remember,
• 32:35
  she's won by much more than that
• 32:37
  when she's run for senator.
• 32:39
  That doesn't necessarily mean that translates to governor,
• 32:41
  cause those races have been closer,
• 32:43
  and uh the governor's races,
• 32:45
  as I mentioned,
• 32:46
  have been closer.
• 32:46
  Now Klobuchar is a much better candidate than Tim Walls.
• 32:52
  That's not even a compliment to Klobuchar.
• 32:53
  It's,
• 32:53
  it's just more of a knock on walls.
• 32:55
  He's terrible.
• 32:56
  Uh,
• 32:57
  so
• 32:57
  the fact that she has this opening and,
• 32:59
  and that number is 13 points is interesting.
• 33:02
  Now let me bring you over to the margin markets.
• 33:04
  Uh,
• 33:04
  this is the live view of that market.
• 33:06
  You can see
• 33:07
  here,
• 33:07
  uh,
• 33:07
  that 13.2% is the margin that is projected,
• 33:10
  but let's scroll down to the individual markets here.
• 33:13
  You see
• 33:14
  how this works.
• 33:15
  Klobuchar,
• 33:15
  will she win by 2 points or more?
• 33:17
  Um,
• 33:18
  yes,
• 33:19
  is 93.9%,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:22
  in that market.
• 33:23
  Will she win by 5 points or more,
• 33:24
  87% chance.
• 33:27
  Look
• 33:27
  That's not bad.
• 33:29
  She,
• 33:29
  you know,
• 33:29
  I think,
• 33:30
  you know,
• 33:31
  I'm very confident in her winning by 5 points or more,
• 33:34
  and I would be,
• 33:35
  I would be happy to take some of that 87.
• 33:37
  Here's where I think it feels it gets more and more interesting though.
• 33:40
  Klobuchar at 8 points or more,
• 33:42
  which again,
• 33:43
  I'm pretty confident she's gonna win by 8 points or more.
• 33:48
  73 cents for that.
• 33:49
  That's a pretty good price.
• 33:51
  It keeps going down,
• 33:52
  uh,
• 33:53
  if you wanna get really frisky,
• 33:55
  you can get her by winning by 14 points or more for 43 cents.
• 33:59
  Again,
• 33:59
  if you don't,
• 34:00
  if you're new to prediction markets,
• 34:01
  that's uh 43 cents each share will cost you.
• 34:04
  For every 43 cents that you invest,
• 34:06
  you get a 57
• 34:08
  cents profit.
• 34:09
  So over 100% returns.
• 34:12
  In less than 50 days.
• 34:13
  Now,
• 34:14
  14 points is stretching it.
• 34:15
  I wouldn't be.
• 34:17
  I wouldn't,
• 34:17
  I don't feel
• 34:18
  bad about pulling the trigger on a few shares on that,
• 34:21
  but I really like 5 and 8% quite a bit.
• 34:24
  Uh,
• 34:24
  and then 11 is interesting as well.
• 34:27
  Uh,
• 34:27
  look,
• 34:28
  I think Klobuchar is gonna win.
• 34:29
  She does,
• 34:30
  and she's pulling out all the stops here,
• 34:32
  OK?
• 34:33
  She's,
• 34:34
  she,
• 34:34
  it's not like she's being lazy here.
• 34:36
  She's pulling out all the stops.
• 34:38
  She is,
• 34:39
  uh,
• 34:40
  doing the thing
• 34:41
  where she's cheering on the local team.
• 34:43
  And that when you really want to win,
• 34:45
  you gotta cheer on the local team.
• 34:46
  She's doing it in an interesting way though.
• 34:48
  I mean,
• 34:48
  maybe she's being a little lazy here.
• 34:50
  Here are the last 4 years of her cheering on the Minnesota Vikings,
• 34:53
  all next to each other.
• 34:55
  What do you notice?
• 34:56
  You notice that
• 34:57
  Every single picture is exactly the same.
• 35:00
  Oddly though,
• 35:01
  she's cropped out her legs in a couple of them.
• 35:03
  I don't know why.
• 35:04
  Maybe she's like,
• 35:04
  I don't think my legs look nice in that photo.
• 35:07
  But
• 35:07
  here she is with the exact same shirt in front of the exact same building
• 35:10
  at the exact same time.
• 35:12
  She's been posting it since in 26,
• 35:14
  25,
• 35:14
  24,
• 35:14
  and 23.
• 35:16
  Why is she doing that?
• 35:17
  Why doesn't she just take a new picture of herself
• 35:19
  in the same shirt?
• 35:20
  I don't know,
• 35:22
  but she's trying.
• 35:23
  She's,
• 35:23
  she's putting it out there.
• 35:25
  Uh,
• 35:25
  so anyway,
• 35:26
  I think that's interesting and I like those margin market prices.
• 35:29
  I,
• 35:29
  normally with margin markets,
• 35:30
  I wait to get in until later.
• 35:33
  I'll,
• 35:33
  I'll kinda like trickle in a little bit later as we get a little bit better,
• 35:36
  better sense of the race,
• 35:37
  but I don't think these prices are gonna hang around.
• 35:39
  These prices are going,
• 35:40
  going,
• 35:40
  gone.
• 35:41
  I like these prices.
• 35:42
  I mean,
• 35:43
  73 for 8 plus is probably my favorite one out of those cause that feels really nice.
• 35:47
  Again,
• 35:47
  that's a 27 cents
• 35:49
  profit on every 73 cents you invest,
• 35:52
  so you're talking about a third,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:54
  a gain on your money in 50 days.
• 35:57
  You know,
• 35:58
  again,
• 35:58
  you're well,
• 35:59
  you're almost up to 200%
• 36:01
  annual percentage rate on that.
• 36:03
  I like that a lot.
• 36:04
  I don't know,
• 36:04
  could I be wrong?
• 36:05
  Of course I can be wrong.
• 36:06
  I will miss some of these,
• 36:08
  but I do,
• 36:08
  uh,
• 36:08
  I'm just letting you know what I do,
• 36:10
  and you can,
• 36:11
  again,
• 36:11
  follow along
• 36:12
  or laugh at me.
• 36:14
  Got plenty of options here,
• 36:16
  uh,
• 36:16
  for the candidate of the day.
• 36:17
  We'll have more candidates of the day coming up,
• 36:18
  uh,
• 36:19
  next week and again,
• 36:20
  to remind you,
• 36:20
  PredictableShow.com has every one of my picks,
• 36:23
  over 300 of them listed
• 36:24
  currently
• 36:25
  for premium subscribers.
• 36:27
  Check it out.
• 36:28
  If you're trading these markets,
• 36:29
  I can't tell you enough how good of a value this is gonna be for you.
• 36:32
  This is gonna pay for itself,
• 36:34
  I think.
• 36:35
  I hope,
• 36:36
  uh,
• 36:36
  very easily
• 36:37
  if you're going to invest money into this election coming up in November.
• 36:41
  Uh,
• 36:41
  so join us there,
• 36:42
  predictableShow.com,
• 36:43
  more in a second.
• 36:59
  We all have our ups and downs in our relationships.
• 37:02
  Sometimes good things happen,
• 37:03
  sometimes bad.
• 37:04
  Sometimes you're fighting with your spouse,
• 37:06
  sometimes you're passionately,
• 37:07
  madly in love with them.
• 37:10
  That's sort of the relationship I've had with this next market.
• 37:14
  And,
• 37:14
  uh,
• 37:15
  frankly,
• 37:16
  not doing well on it.
• 37:17
  As I mentioned,
• 37:17
  we do this uh thing where we release all of my picks and,
• 37:20
  and like it's warts and all.
• 37:21
  There's some picks in there that suck,
• 37:23
  frankly.
• 37:23
  I don't,
• 37:24
  I,
• 37:24
  I'm embarrassed that I have them.
• 37:25
  And one of the ones I was most embarrassed about
• 37:28
  in my entire 300 picks list
• 37:31
  was a pick about Kamala Harris.
• 37:33
  And I,
• 37:33
  I,
• 37:34
  my idea was,
• 37:35
  Kamala Harris is not going to run for president.
• 37:38
  The concept behind that pick was,
• 37:40
  did you see what happened last time?
• 37:43
  Or the time before.
• 37:45
  They can't possibly want her to run again.
• 37:47
  There's no way she would do it right.
• 37:50
  I thought that was really good reasoning,
• 37:51
  frankly.
• 37:52
  um,
• 37:52
  and so I took a position on that.
• 37:54
  There's a development in that market
• 37:56
  because I liked it at the beginning,
• 37:57
  and then it just crashed and I hated it.
• 38:02
  Am I,
• 38:03
  am I,
• 38:03
  am I,
• 38:03
  is the glimmer back?
• 38:05
  Let me show you a clip of this.
• 38:06
  This is,
• 38:06
  uh,
• 38:07
  Gavin Newsom.
• 38:08
  He's with Jake Tapper.
• 38:09
  He says he will not run for president in 2028
• 38:12
  if Harris does.
• 38:14
  Interesting phrasing.
• 38:15
  Let me show you the clip cause it's,
• 38:17
  it's kind of pitched up there,
• 38:19
  out there,
• 38:19
  it's like really casual.
• 38:20
  He's just fishing.
• 38:22
  This man,
• 38:23
  who I don't think has ever touched a fishing pole in his entire life,
• 38:26
  it certainly doesn't look like he has,
• 38:27
  but he's just fishing,
• 38:28
  having a normal conversation with microphones on.
• 38:31
  That's just,
• 38:31
  just off the top of his head,
• 38:33
  watch this.
• 38:34
  What 30,
• 38:35
  it's gonna be a lot of people.
• 38:37
  It's a lot of Democrats.
• 38:38
  31 flavors and
• 38:39
  you're not even the only Californian.
• 38:42
  You got Rona,
• 38:43
  Kamala,
• 38:44
  yeah,
• 38:45
  I don't know if she runs,
• 38:46
  but we'll see.
• 38:46
  I know she's called around,
• 38:48
  yeah,
• 38:49
  but I,
• 38:49
  I wouldn't run if she ran.
• 38:51
  Are you,
• 38:51
  if she runs,
• 38:52
  you won't,
• 38:52
  you will not,
• 38:53
  of course not.
• 38:54
  Why would I?
• 38:55
  I wouldn't do that to her,
• 38:56
  I wouldn't do it to me,
• 38:57
  why would I,
• 38:57
  I wouldn't do that to you,
• 38:58
  I wouldn't waste everyone's time.
• 39:00
  Who needs that?
• 39:05
  Really interesting clip.
• 39:06
  Now there's never been,
• 39:08
  this is something that's important for you to know.
• 39:11
  Gavin Newsom has never had an authentic moment in his entire life.
• 39:15
  At any moment,
• 39:17
  this is just fact,
• 39:18
  this is science.
• 39:19
  He's never had a moment that was authentic.
• 39:22
  So,
• 39:23
  this is something he wanted to say.
• 39:25
  You don't just throw something like that out
• 39:27
  there to Jake Tapper while you're fishing.
• 39:30
  This,
• 39:30
  again,
• 39:30
  when I first saw this clip,
• 39:31
  I'm like,
• 39:31
  who is he talking to here?
• 39:32
  Is this a documentary?
• 39:33
  Is he talking to,
• 39:35
  uh,
• 39:35
  cause I couldn't see Tapper on the screen,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:37
  cause it was,
• 39:37
  I'm like,
• 39:38
  first of all,
• 39:38
  I'm old and my eyes are terrible.
• 39:39
  Uh,
• 39:40
  and it was kind of far away.
• 39:41
  Uh,
• 39:41
  I thought maybe it was like a consultant,
• 39:43
  like,
• 39:43
  are you saying,
• 39:44
  oh gosh,
• 39:44
  Democrats,
• 39:45
  because at one point he says,
• 39:46
  I wouldn't do that to you.
• 39:49
  Like what,
• 39:49
  what do you mean?
• 39:50
  You wouldn't do that,
• 39:52
  obviously,
• 39:52
  like for Jake Tapper's professional life,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:55
  more people in a crazy primary is probably a good thing.
• 39:59
  I don't know what he means I wouldn't do that to you,
• 40:01
  Jake Tapper.
• 40:02
  He's kind of treating him as like he's a supporter or he's,
• 40:05
  you know,
• 40:06
  I don't know,
• 40:06
  a Democratic fundraiser.
• 40:08
  You can insert your own observations there.
• 40:11
  Uh,
• 40:11
  but what's interesting about that is him saying,
• 40:14
  Hey,
• 40:15
  I won't run if Kamala does.
• 40:19
  Why would you say that?
• 40:21
  Why would you say that?
• 40:22
  If you think about you as the most calculating person in the universe,
• 40:27
  Gavin Newsom,
• 40:28
  why would you say that?
• 40:29
  There's a,
• 40:30
  to me,
• 40:32
  Two reasons
• 40:34
  Number one,
• 40:35
  which I
• 40:35
  think is the one that I believe.
• 40:38
  Is that he has
• 40:40
  word or belief,
• 40:42
  or an inkling
• 40:43
  or
• 40:44
  actual knowledge
• 40:46
  that Kamala is not going to run.
• 40:49
  Uh,
• 40:49
  he believes
• 40:50
  that's not gonna happen.
• 40:52
  Because we all know Gavin Newsom's going to run or he wants to run.
• 40:56
  So it's possible
• 40:58
  that he knows or has a uh uh an instinct or a strong vibe that Kamala
• 41:03
  is not going to run,
• 41:05
  so that he can say that comfortably.
• 41:07
  I'm gonna get into this race because I know she's not,
• 41:10
  right?
• 41:11
  That's,
• 41:11
  that's path number one,
• 41:12
  I think that's the one I believe.
• 41:13
  I'd love to get your thoughts on this,
• 41:14
  predictableShow.com
• 41:15
  or questions at predictableshow.com if you have a theory.
• 41:18
  The other one.
• 41:20
  Is the reverse of this.
• 41:23
  He has decided,
• 41:24
  because he is fading in the polls,
• 41:26
  and he's been fading in prediction markets,
• 41:28
  and he
• 41:28
  might,
• 41:29
  maybe he doesn't believe he can win,
• 41:31
  and now he's looking for an excuse
• 41:33
  to not run.
• 41:35
  And he's going to use Kamala as that excuse.
• 41:38
  Kamala is going to announce,
• 41:39
  he said,
• 41:39
  well,
• 41:39
  I told you I wouldn't,
• 41:40
  I just wouldn't,
• 41:41
  I wouldn't do that.
• 41:42
  I wouldn't run against her.
• 41:44
  One of those two things is true.
• 41:45
  He's been prepping for this for years and years and years and years and years,
• 41:48
  and nobody
• 41:49
  loves Gavin Newsom
• 41:51
  like Gavin Newsom.
• 41:52
  I don't believe he doesn't think he can't,
• 41:54
  I,
• 41:55
  I,
• 41:55
  I don't believe he thinks he can't win.
• 41:57
  I think he thinks he is going to get in and
• 41:59
  I think he believes already that Kamala will not run.
• 42:03
  Uh,
• 42:03
  he kind of said,
• 42:03
  I don't know if she runs.
• 42:05
  Uh,
• 42:05
  I think he doesn't think that she's going to run,
• 42:07
  and that's gonna give him a path to
• 42:09
  get in because now he's making himself vulnerable.
• 42:11
  He'd have to go back on his,
• 42:13
  his word,
• 42:13
  which he would never do.
• 42:16
  He would never go back on his word.
• 42:19
  Don't ask his wife about that particular thing,
• 42:21
  but the,
• 42:21
  the,
• 42:21
  the point is,
• 42:23
  uh,
• 42:25
  That's what Gavin News.
• 42:26
  So now I'm kind of back in favor and back in love with my position.
• 42:29
  Let me show you what it is.
• 42:30
  By the way,
• 42:30
  here's a couple of markets,
• 42:31
  uh,
• 42:31
  from,
• 42:32
  uh,
• 42:32
  Calsie.
• 42:33
  When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
• 42:36
  Uh,
• 42:36
  scroll down,
• 42:36
  give me some options here.
• 42:37
  This is a small market,
• 42:38
  not tons of volume.
• 42:39
  A lot of people believe it is,
• 42:41
  uh,
• 42:41
  see,
• 42:41
  before January 1st,
• 42:42
  2027 would surprise me.
• 42:44
  Uh,
• 42:45
  no,
• 42:45
  on that.
• 42:45
  It's kind of interesting to me,
• 42:47
  but then it gets into the place where basically everyone thinks it's gonna happen
• 42:50
  before October 2027.
• 42:52
  Uh,
• 42:52
  Kamala Harris is another one here.
• 42:54
  Let's see what the Kamala market looks like because Kamala,
• 42:56
  I would expect
• 42:57
  to be a little bit different.
• 42:58
  Uh,
• 42:59
  if you look,
• 42:59
  uh,
• 42:59
  let's scroll down.
• 43:00
  Down a little bit and should take a quick look.
• 43:02
  Uh,
• 43:02
  will she do it before January 1st?
• 43:04
  Everyone basically says no,
• 43:05
  but they do believe she will do it before April,
• 43:07
  uh,
• 43:07
  about 50%,
• 43:08
  not quite as high as Gavin
• 43:10
  to,
• 43:10
  uh,
• 43:11
  run overall at 69%.
• 43:12
  There's some interesting,
• 43:13
  that's an interesting no there,
• 43:14
  honestly.
• 43:15
  Now,
• 43:16
  the position that I actually took was
• 43:19
  in a market,
• 43:20
  uh,
• 43:20
  give me that next one,
• 43:21
  who will run basically,
• 43:22
  who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination
• 43:25
  in 2028.
• 43:27
  Uh,
• 43:28
  a lot of different
• 43:29
  numbers out there.
• 43:29
  Mitch,
• 43:29
  wow,
• 43:30
  wow,
• 43:30
  Mitch Landrieu,
• 43:31
  very high.
• 43:32
  I hadn't seen this in a while.
• 43:33
  60% that Mitch Landrieu was gonna run for president.
• 43:37
  What a waste.
• 43:38
  Uh,
• 43:39
  scroll down.
• 43:40
  Scroll down here.
• 43:41
  Uh,
• 43:41
  Bashir,
• 43:42
  I think is gonna,
• 43:43
  it seems like Buttigieg and Bashir,
• 43:44
  yeah.
• 43:45
  Uh,
• 43:45
  Shapiro,
• 43:46
  I think so.
• 43:47
  I'm not,
• 43:47
  I'm a little less sure.
• 43:48
  Cory Booker always feels like he's gonna run.
• 43:50
  JB Pritzker certainly wants to.
• 43:52
  Um,
• 43:53
  interesting names here,
• 43:53
  lots of big ones.
• 43:54
  This is gonna be a big field cause this is a big opportunity for Democrats.
• 43:58
  Uh,
• 43:59
  Jon Ossoff will be becoming one of the favorites.
• 44:00
  Davin Newsom all the way down to 69%.
• 44:02
  That is interesting.
• 44:04
  I have no,
• 44:05
  go down to Kamala.
• 44:06
  Can you find Kamala for me?
• 44:07
  Uh,
• 44:07
  Kamala Harris,
• 44:08
  uh,
• 44:09
  let's see,
• 44:10
  where is she?
• 44:10
  75%,
• 44:12
  75% chance.
• 44:14
  I,
• 44:14
  uh,
• 44:14
  I'm down on this.
• 44:16
  I took the no position at 47%,
• 44:18
  I think,
• 44:19
  and now it's at 27%.
• 44:21
  So I'm,
• 44:22
  I'm down.
• 44:22
  I'm on the wrong side,
• 44:23
  but
• 44:23
  I've got high hopes.
• 44:25
  I've got high hopes for the future.
• 44:27
  Finally,
• 44:27
  uh,
• 44:27
  last one,
• 44:27
  by the way,
• 44:28
  if you're wondering who's gonna be the Democratic uh presidential nominee.
• 44:31
  This is all,
• 44:31
  by the way,
• 44:31
  available for free on Cal Sheed,
• 44:33
  Poly Market,
• 44:33
  wherever you are.
• 44:34
  Uh,
• 44:34
  if you wanna see
• 44:35
  the favorite right now,
• 44:36
  is that favorite Jon Ossoff right now?
• 44:39
  Wow.
• 44:40
  Jon Ossoff having a heck of a few weeks.
• 44:42
  Uh,
• 44:42
  he's up to 17% chance,
• 44:44
  AOC at 16,
• 44:46
  Gavin Newsom at 13%.
• 44:47
  Scroll down,
• 44:47
  give me a few more options here,
• 44:48
  Adam,
• 44:48
  if you don't mind.
• 44:49
  Uh,
• 44:50
  Kamala Harris,
• 44:50
  8.1,
• 44:51
  Buttigieg in the 5,
• 44:53
  Shapiro 5,
• 44:54
  Kelly 4,
• 44:55
  Beshir 3,
• 44:56
  and on down the list.
• 44:57
  By the way,
• 44:58
  and one quick note on the 2028 markets,
• 45:00
  some of them are the most interesting ones,
• 45:01
  the ones we'll talk about tons.
• 45:02
  Everyone talks about you're always talking about with your friends.
• 45:04
  They're not always the best investment though cause you
• 45:06
  are locking up your capital for multiple years.
• 45:09
  So consider that before you start throwing any large amount of money on that.
• 45:12
  If you wanna,
• 45:13
  cause you can wait,
• 45:13
  you've got time before all this stuff plays out
• 45:16
  on that last market that doesn't resolve till maybe 2029,
• 45:20
  uh,
• 45:20
  or actually 2028 in that market,
• 45:22
  the winner in 2029
• 45:23
  or at least election night in 2028.
• 45:25
  OK,
• 45:25
  back in a second.
• 45:36
  We covered so much today.
• 45:37
  We're running so late.
• 45:38
  Thanks so much for joining us and uh taking the time.
• 45:40
  Uh,
• 45:40
  if you want to join us for a little bit more this weekend,
• 45:43
  please do so.
• 45:44
  PredictableShow.com.
• 45:45
  It's predictableShow.com and we'll see you there.