Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Hoss, is this your first rodeo? Sure seems like it.

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Anpanman - Hoss, is this your first rodeo? Sure seems like it. · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

0:06
This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
0:10
Where we just basically come your phone be seamless
0:14
regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
0:16
know that it's connected by satellite.
0:21
Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
0:27
Everyone, I thought I'd do an ad hoc space here, just monitoring.
0:32
Twitter. It's.
0:34
It's like there's a bunch of new investors out there, amateurs
0:38
really. So I just wanted to level set
0:40
people because I think some folks need, you know, their
0:45
levels to be set right, which is the, the, the title of the
0:49
space. Is this your first radio?
0:51
Sure seems like it. So yeah, I just wanted to talk
0:54
about ASD space mobile and the current dynamics and obviously
0:58
sentiment. Obviously the Amazon news
1:01
yesterday, whatever reason has spooked people and has gotten
1:05
the street all up in there, you know, their underwear all tied
1:08
up. Any reactions I think have been
1:12
OK to ignorant. And so I just wanted to dive in
1:15
a little bit on what the deal potentially could mean, but also
1:20
highlight, you know, what's on the horizon here.
1:22
And so I think it's important to understand that most of us have
1:28
been invested in this company for four or five years and we've
1:31
seen a ton of stuff come and go, right?
1:34
Like we've seen when Starlink and SpaceX announced their
1:38
partnership, T-Mobile proclaiming that they're going
1:40
to offer a broadband service back in September 2022.
1:44
Of course Apple, you know, Apple came out with, with their
1:50
investment in Global Star and and offered SOS messaging which
1:53
has eventually evolved into some limited actual customizable text
1:57
messages. And of course, you know Starlink
2:01
playing Echostar which causes stock to drop.
2:04
I think it was like 1314% that day and then after.
2:08
Two days of. Digestion, the stock rallied
2:11
from I think what was like 39 to like 85, you know, just a few
2:16
weeks later. And so this stuff is going to
2:19
happen, right? Like this is a highly attractive
2:22
large market and they're going to be other players pursuing it,
2:25
right? And you've got these legacy
2:26
guys, for example, Biasat Equisys, all right, I can don't
2:31
even know their name. Space 42, like this Battle of
2:34
the Bastards, like a bunch of guys trying to get together to
2:36
put forward a solution. And by the way, they're like 3
2:38
different parties. They're not vertically
2:40
integrated. Who knows what they're trying to
2:43
do? It's going to be harebrained.
2:44
They're spending $1 billion, which quite frankly, you know,
2:48
that might pay for a few launches, but they're not
2:51
they're not going to get there, right?
2:53
And if anything, they're probably trying to create some
2:55
competitive dynamic where the stock price goes up for ViaSat,
2:59
they can raise more money and just keep, you know, keep things
3:01
moving along, hoping for a better a better day where they
3:05
can get bought right for some premium.
3:07
But I think it's important to really understand what the
3:12
Amazon deal means and what's, what's reality.
3:14
Like, OK, they announced this thing yesterday and everyone's,
3:19
I think Deutsche Bank had a pretty rational reaction to the
3:25
announcement, but they did lower their price target because they
3:27
were like, well, we'll just assume that there's a 15% impact
3:30
on margins long term, which, you know, that, that seems like a
3:33
reasonable conclusion. But you know, what, when, what
3:38
does that mean? And when can they compete?
3:40
Right. So first of all, initially when
3:43
I saw the, the, the press release, I thought, you know,
3:46
MDA Space might get cut out right, of, of building future
3:49
satellites. So MDA Space is currently
3:50
building 17 satellites that which are compatible with the
3:56
current generation of 24 satellites in orbit.
3:59
And that's just to replenish and keep the service going.
4:02
And then they have an order for A next generation solid which is
4:07
based off the Aurora platform and they refer to it AC three.
4:11
I think that's like 50 satellites, right?
4:13
And so they're building and hoping to deploy that sometime
4:16
in late, maybe it's like, I think 20272028 around there.
4:22
But initially I thought, oh, well, maybe, you know, just as
4:24
my gut reaction, I thought maybe Amazon will just cut these guys
4:27
out and just make their own satellite and deploy it
4:29
supposedly on this 2028 timeline.
4:31
But then of course, I dug into the deal documents and there's
4:34
no, there's no, you know, pointing to a removal of that
4:40
contract. And so, and then I thought about
4:41
it more. It's like, oh, you know, from a
4:43
business perspective actually makes sense.
4:45
You know, first like Amazon and the Amazon transaction that's
4:50
going to take time to close. It's probably going to happen
4:52
sometime mid next year. It's going to go through a very
4:55
rigorous regulatory view and antitrust view.
4:59
And so if you were global starting Apple, you're not going
5:02
to sit around. Waiting for the deal to close
5:04
because these things can actually take longer than
5:06
expected and maybe the deal doesn't close, which I think
5:08
it's highly unlikely. I think it's going to close as
5:10
is, but you're going to continue with your plans, right, Because
5:13
you have to maintain the current constellation.
5:16
I mean, it's not great, but you have to maintain it and then you
5:20
have to go a look forward with your plans of building the next
5:24
generation, right. And the more I thought about it
5:27
was like, oh, you know, actually that makes sense because Amazon
5:30
is going to use that next generation consolation too,
5:34
because they're not going to have their satellites ready.
5:37
Supposedly. They said, you know, we're going
5:38
to start rolling it out in 2028, I think, but they actually meant
5:42
rolling out service in 2028, which is.
5:46
Dependent on MDA space's constellation, right?
5:49
Because Amazon eventually they'll build a their own
5:53
satellites, but that's going to take time.
5:54
I mean we know that they hired, they have one job posting, maybe
5:59
it was 2 in the last few months where they were looking for
6:02
someone with. D to DRF.
6:04
Experience. It's going to take time to.
6:07
Build a a group of folks who. Can help them do this and then
6:11
as we know. You know, for AST, it took a
6:14
really long time. You know, they started in 2018,
6:17
SpaceX in 2022. And, and SpaceX obviously based
6:21
off of what we see in their service, it's not perfect.
6:24
It's a minimally viable product, right?
6:27
And so for AST, you know, they've built this ASIC, they've
6:32
they've gone through multiple iterations.
6:34
Of you know. Blue Walker 3 and then Block 1
6:37
satellites. Then block 2, which is being
6:40
rolled out now and then of course, moving from Fpgas to a
6:43
six and then block 3 is already in development and will get
6:47
launched. And that block 3 is going to be
6:49
the equivalent of what where Starlink and and the eventual
6:55
Amazon, you know, consolation play, which is in mid band.
6:58
But that that takes time and it takes a lot of money, right?
7:01
And it takes iterating because you can't just do it.
7:04
You can't just make it and it's going to work.
7:06
You're going to have to go through trial and error.
7:07
You're going to have to do development.
7:09
Spinning up an ASIC, for example, takes four to five
7:12
years, right? And, and I think SpaceX, you
7:16
know, Elon is pretty aggressive with his timelines, but he's
7:19
saying that V2 will have an ASIC and.
7:23
That will be ready sometime in 2028.
7:24
Well, yeah, if if development is is on time and it's perfect,
7:29
then it'll be 2028. It could be 2029, right.
7:33
Then of course, you've got, you know, you need Starship to come
7:36
online and get to your commercial cadence.
7:38
But for Amazon starting from scratch, you know, maybe they've
7:41
done some work and obviously they've, they've with Leo,
7:45
they've done development work. But I, I think people should
7:47
remember that Leo has taken many, many years, right?
7:50
And, and now they are starting to actually actually, you know,
7:56
build those in scale and they're launching them.
7:58
And so from you know, Chairman Carr referred to this before
8:01
like they are way past their build out deadline, right?
8:05
And so they need to get an extension.
8:07
Let me just ask, let me just find one piece of information
8:09
here, OK? Sorry guys, I'm trying to find
8:20
some information because I think it would be helpful for this
8:22
discussion, but but yeah, Amazon Leo took forever.
8:27
And so yes, there's there's learnings there and.
8:32
They'll be able to leverage. Those.
8:33
But as we all know, directed device is a totally different
8:36
animal than, you know, fixed wireless, fixed wireless, which
8:39
is leveraging high band, you know, spectrum, whether it's
8:43
KAKU band, QV band, we're talking about like, you know,
8:49
MSS and then potentially cellular, which by the way, like
8:52
Amazon, they bought MSS spectrum today, they don't have access to
8:55
cellular spectrum. And so while the service will be
8:58
interesting in terms of some level of data throughput, it's
9:02
not going to have, you know, coverage and propagation.
9:07
And so, yeah, I mean, I think, you know, let me see, I'm just
9:11
going back here. So, so Amazon, they I think they
9:13
launched their first two prototype satellites back in
9:16
2023. And then of course now they're
9:20
they're launching, I guess they start launching production
9:24
satellites over of course, over 2025.
9:26
But they're, they picked up the cadence now.
9:28
So, but I think Amazon Leo prior to those two test satellites, I
9:31
think it took several years to get to that point, right.
9:34
And so it's going to take a lot of development work.
9:36
And so I think it's important for people in the market to
9:39
understand that what Amazon is doing and what they announced is
9:43
that they are going to use the current global star consolation
9:48
and then they're going to use the next generation C3 Aurora
9:51
satellites and leverage that for DDD in 2028.
9:56
And then at some point in the nebulous future, they are going
9:59
to develop their own direct to device satellite.
10:01
And you know, how long will that take?
10:02
You know, are they going to use Fpgas and then eventually spin
10:05
up an ASIC? Of course you can't spin up an
10:08
ASIC until you've perfected what you want in silicon through an
10:12
FPGA. And so it it's a development
10:14
time, prime time frame that that takes time.
10:17
And so, yeah, I mean, you're looking at a potential
10:20
competitor sometime in 20292030. And in the meantime, you know,
10:26
we've got these things called M and OS and we have mutual
10:30
exclusivity with providers like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone,
10:34
Rakuten, Saudi Telecom, Bell, Canada, Telus.
10:39
Yeah, there's a whole of us. Like there's fifty of these
10:41
guys. We have obviously definitely
10:43
commercial agreements with a handful for now because we're
10:46
we're still planning to ink those as we roll out the
10:49
service. But it's not like these guys are
10:51
passive, right? Like this company called
10:53
Vodafone and AT&T and Verizon, they all sit on our board like.
10:59
We're fully integrated with these guys, like their strategic
11:02
investors, all of them. And they sit on our board, so
11:05
does Rakatan. And so it's not like, you know,
11:08
Joe comes lately, he's going to come by and be like, hey, do you
11:10
want to use my service? And then Verizon's going to say,
11:12
Oh yeah, let me give it a try. These companies, we have mutual
11:15
exclusivity, right? And so, and that's for in
11:19
Vodafone's case, that's five years and for 18 T and Verizon,
11:22
you know, that's, that's multi, multi years, I believe, but
11:25
probably around the range of three or four years, but not not
11:29
entirely sure. And then of course for Rakaton,
11:32
that's like, I think that mutual exclusivity is it could be in
11:35
the perpetuity, but I'm not sure.
11:36
But that exclusivity actually lasts the the timing of that it
11:41
kicks off at the start of commercial service.
11:45
And so let's say if commercial service started and.
11:49
You know. October of this year.
11:51
Or December of this year, then it's five years from that point,
11:54
right? It's just like when Starlink and
11:55
T-Mobile have their, when your exclusivity, it started from the
11:59
period of when service started. And then of course that's going
12:02
to end in June, July of this year.
12:05
And so, you know, it's important to understand that even if
12:09
Amazon puts together this whiz bang service like it's not,
12:13
there's no ability. To for these.
12:15
M and OS to go carry it because. But one, strategically that
12:19
wouldn't make sense for them, but then 2, they we have mutual
12:22
exclusivity with them and so I think.
12:26
You know these? Fears that somehow Amazon is
12:29
going to hit the ground running and have some tremendous service
12:34
in 202820292030 Like that's, that's, that's kind of far out
12:39
there, right? I, I think it's unlikely like if
12:42
everything goes well, maybe it'll be 2029, maybe 20-30.
12:45
But the other thing which Catsy pointed out quite well and I
12:48
alluded to this yesterday is that the way that these
12:51
solutions work, right? So global star and Starlink both
12:56
have solutions that are basically like a separate
12:59
roaming network. They are completely separate
13:01
from the M&O network. And so it's not seamless.
13:05
It's almost like you're roaming on, you know when when you go
13:07
out of coverage. Global star that little.
13:11
Logo will show up and then you can connect to it and send you
13:14
know, messages or for T satellite if you're the the the
13:18
network and then that network kind of fight to see who's going
13:22
to provide service for your phone and and and it's not
13:26
seamless, but when 1 drops, the other one picks up right.
13:30
However, in AS TS case, we are actually integrated into the
13:35
core of the MNO network. And so the Eno BS that that do
13:40
all the trafficking between towers actually also do
13:42
trafficking between towers to the satellite.
13:46
And so that that that hand off will be seamless.
13:49
And then future generate revisions of NTM standard that's
13:53
going to be even more seamless. But when you are fully
13:57
integrated into the network, the great, the reason why the MO's
14:00
want that is they want complete control of the customer.
14:02
They want to be able to provide all the different services menu
14:05
of options. And so for for Vodafone versus
14:10
AT&T, they might offer different plans, they might offer
14:14
different service levels and you might get throttled if you have
14:17
a low implant. You might get all you can eat
14:19
data on a hiring plan. The pricing might be different
14:22
there. There could be all these
14:23
different features, but the MN OS want to control that, right?
14:26
And they as part of that it, you need to be integrated into the
14:30
network, whereas like with, with SpaceX Starlink, Starlink
14:34
controls all that stuff. And so you as an M&O, you just
14:36
hand off the customer to Starlink because it's, it's like
14:39
an E SIM and then they do whatever they do and then they
14:41
pay you for that customer or some, some split, which
14:45
interestingly, we saw that in Starlink's case, I think they
14:48
only provide 20% of the economics to T-Mobile and they
14:52
keep 80, which is another point. It's like, OK, we're actually
14:55
doing 5050 and, and our business model looks great.
14:58
Starlink is actually offering worse economics, you know, is
15:02
Amazon going to impact that? You know, who knows, right?
15:05
But the point I'm trying to make is that once you integrate into
15:09
the core of the network and, and are seamless with the M&O, you,
15:14
you kind of have this position where it's hard to replace you,
15:17
right? You can't RIP and replace out
15:20
AST like once you've made that commitment and, and this is
15:23
something again, that the M and OS want, they want seamless
15:25
integration. They want to have the ability to
15:27
control a customer, do support billing, provide different
15:30
service levels, and you can only do that if you're integrated.
15:33
And so by that time, let's say if Amazon does.
15:37
You know they. Share and just turn away from
15:39
the global star second generation consolation.
15:41
And then they developed their own satellite, they've developed
15:44
an ASIC and they successfully launched the consolation.
15:48
Then at that point, maybe an M&O could be like, oh, maybe I want
15:50
to switch, but they're they're switching costs, right?
15:54
And then let's talk about service level.
15:55
So, so global *, as I mentioned before, they've got like 16
15:59
megahertz of 2.4 gigahertz or actually just closer to the
16:04
upper end of 2.4 to 2.5 for downlink.
16:07
And then uplink they've got some L band, which is 1.6, it's like
16:10
7 megahertz. And so that that service is OK
16:15
if you're out in the open and have a Direct Line of sight, you
16:18
know, it might penetrate a window if you have a strong
16:20
signal. But it's not.
16:23
Going to give you the same level experience that AST has which is
16:26
cellular spectrum low band. Goes through walls Goes through
16:30
has great coverage. And of course, AST when they
16:33
deployed Legato, then you'll have this on top of that
16:36
coverage layer of cake, you're going to have mid band spectrum,
16:39
which gives you a lot of capacity, right.
16:41
But for global star, they're, they're limited to that
16:43
spectrum. And so just to quantify that,
16:46
that's about 1/3 of the spectrum that AST is deploying in the US.
16:50
And it's also 1/3 of what eventually Starlink is going to
16:53
deploy once they move off of once they move off of the 1.9
16:58
gigahertz T-Mobile and they deploy the ADBS 3D spectrum,
17:02
which which they're buying for Echostar, which by the way, like
17:05
isn't going to close until the end of the summer in 2027.
17:10
And then they've got to develop the new satellite, which isn't
17:12
going to come until 2028. And then of course, by that
17:15
time, like Starship has to be going right.
17:18
It's a lot of things. I mean, we know, you know, Elon
17:21
Musk and, and Tesla and, and SpaceX are tremendous companies
17:26
and they've accomplished wonderful things.
17:28
But at the same time, like, as we all know, hard things take
17:31
time. And and so having a timeline
17:35
where they've laid out that they can get to service for V2
17:38
sometime in 2028, like I would probably tack on another year or
17:41
two and look, we're just as. Guilty.
17:42
Like for ASD, we're doing something that's never been
17:46
done. It's really hard and it takes
17:48
time. And what we thought was going to
17:50
be some, you know, some roll out of satellites.
17:54
For launch, which by the way like BB7 was done in in December
17:57
and and unfortunately Blue Origin is taking much longer to
18:01
refurbish. Never tell me the odds booster
18:04
but then. Of course, this is their first
18:06
time doing it. And with all these things like
18:08
after the first time, you make a lot of mistakes, which I
18:10
understand there were some mistakes made, but you get
18:13
better at it. And that's what they're hoping
18:15
like they've learned from this process and they're going to be
18:17
able to turn these things around much faster.
18:19
But for but going back to my original point.
18:24
For Global Star, yeah, Amazon's going to rely.
18:27
It's like the press and research owners and it's like they're
18:30
going to rely on the existing consolation and then the next
18:33
generation consolation that MDA space is building, which we
18:36
don't really know all the specs yet, but I can, I can pretty
18:40
much. Guess that it's not going to be
18:42
at the same level of performance.
18:43
As AST they're. Going to be.
18:46
Relying on those until they can develop their own satellites and
18:49
that's going to take time and that's going to be beyond 2028.
18:52
The other thing I would say is that if Amazon global star want
18:57
to get to the level of performance that AST is at, they
19:00
will need to develop a much larger satellite with a phased
19:03
ray that's high-powered, not say they can't do it, but their
19:07
current, you know, their current satellites are pretty small.
19:09
They're they're, you know, they're just like the, the
19:12
Starlink fixed wireless satellites.
19:15
You know they're meant, you're meant to have many of those and,
19:17
and they they. You know are targeting fixed.
19:21
Dishes to provide, you know, high band, high high speed, high
19:25
band spectrum, you know, Internet connectivity that's
19:29
very different than what direct device is.
19:31
And so as part of that, it's important to note, let me just
19:35
look here. It's all right, I'm moving away
19:40
from my notes here. One thing that I thought about
19:47
overnight and I think it was actually in one of these like
19:50
analysts reports, which I, which was a really great point.
19:52
I didn't think about it. But you know one thing about
19:57
global star satellites is that they actually are orbiting at
20:00
twice the height of AC space mobile and essentially 4 times
20:06
the height of of Starlink, right?
20:08
So. For those that don't know global
20:11
star satellites, they're currently orbiting at around
20:13
1400 kilometers. ASTR shell is going to, you
20:18
know, depending on the satellites and you know, it's
20:20
it's going to be. Probably on average around 600
20:22
kilometers, 607 hundred kilometers.
20:26
And so with that, with that, you know there's trade-offs, right?
20:29
Like if you orbit closer to Earth.
20:31
Your satellites don't last as long, meaning that unless they
20:34
have enough propulsion, but they're going to decay faster.
20:39
But then you reduce the latency, right?
20:41
So when those satellites communicate with a device on
20:44
Earth, there's less turn around time in terms of sending Beanie
20:47
data up and down. But you know, with that
20:50
improvement in in performance, you also have to have more
20:54
satellites for coverage because if you can imagine like if
20:57
you're further away from an object, you can see all of it.
21:00
But if you get closer, you can only see part of it.
21:02
And so the field of view for these satellites.
21:05
When you're closer to Earth becomes smaller, unless of
21:07
course you have a very large phased array, then your field of
21:10
view is very large. And so AST is there.
21:13
The sweet spot for them has been, hey, we're going to
21:15
develop these really large phased arrays.
21:18
We're going to apply them at 600 kilometers and we, because
21:21
they're so large and so powerful and you've got so many array
21:24
elements on them. You know, 2 satellites, for
21:27
example, can cover all of you know, the US, right, in terms of
21:30
coverage. Whereas for Starlink, they made
21:32
a different trade. So they actually are flying all
21:35
their satellites at 350 kilometers.
21:38
I think it's like not far from the ISS, the International Space
21:41
Station. And so they're really close to
21:43
Earth, right? And they're doing that because
21:46
the phased arrays that they made are smaller and they're weaker.
21:49
And so in order to make the the link budget the connection
21:52
between the satellite and the phone, you need it close to.
21:55
Earth. And but with that trade off, you
21:58
need way more satellites, right, because your phased array is not
22:01
that big. I think the current generations
22:03
2 1/2 meters by 2 1/2 meters and ours are 15 meters by 15 meters.
22:08
But you you need to be closer in order for that phase array to
22:13
talk to a phone. And of course, you know, it
22:15
depends on the power as well. But you know, if you boost
22:18
power, you have to be careful because too much power and, and
22:21
not a highly, you know, beam bowl directed, you know, phased
22:26
array also creates interference. And you can't have that,
22:29
especially when you're operating in bands, bands that are close
22:32
to either cellular bands, the mid band area or low band area.
22:36
But anyway, but yes, so SpaceX took this, this choice with
22:40
Starlink. They're, they're orbiting in the
22:42
three hundreds of kilometers in order to get the level of
22:46
performance they need to, to, to actually talk to a phone.
22:50
But that trade off means that those satellites only last, I
22:53
think it's like 2 to three years in orbit.
22:55
So, so I mean, which is not a bad thing for Bok and I because
22:58
they, they need payloads to keep launching up in space.
23:00
And so, so that's, that's good. Although I guess from an
23:03
environmental perspective, if you've got thousands of these
23:06
things burning up in the atmosphere every year, at some
23:09
point that's going to matter. But you know, that's for another
23:12
discussion. But for AST, given where we're
23:14
orbiting, you know, those satellites will last anywhere
23:16
between call it five to seven years, maybe nine years on
23:19
average. But for Global Star, their
23:21
satellites are way up higher. They're they're two times
23:24
higher, more than two times higher than than ASD.
23:26
So the performance. Of the the.
23:28
Current generation, next generation is going to be it's.
23:33
Going to be the. Lethargic right, because the the
23:35
response time of communicating. With your phone.
23:37
To something that far up, there's going to be, you know,
23:41
potential seconds of delay, which.
23:43
For some data and and emergency texting, that's OK, but if you
23:47
want to do voice, that's that's no bueno, right?
23:49
And then if you want to do broadband data where packet
23:54
loss, you know, certain applications were packet loss or
23:56
more latency is not good, then that's that's not good, right?
24:00
And so this is. Another part of the the Rubik's
24:02
Cube. Of complexity that Amazon's
24:04
dealing with by taking over a legacy player, maintaining that
24:08
service for Apple because Apple's like.
24:11
OK. Sure.
24:12
You, you take it off my hands. I, I paid.
24:14
I paid and committed $2 billion on this thing.
24:17
I'm done with it. It's all yours.
24:18
But you have to provide me with a guaranteed level of service.
24:22
And so Apple's like, you know, wringing their hands with this
24:24
and they're like, thank you, please, you're, you're done.
24:26
You take it. But for for.
24:29
Amazon, the complexity is that they will have to transition
24:33
from this legacy consolation to eventually at some point, you
24:37
know, the next generation. Constellations being built by
24:40
MDA space, but then after that their own satellites, right?
24:43
And so if Amazon wants to build this from first principles
24:47
ground up, do what AST is doing. You know you're going to deal
24:50
with compatibility issues between the old.
24:52
Constellation versus new one, perhaps you just shut down the
24:55
old one. But then if you're Apple, you're
24:57
like, you're not going to do that.
24:58
I want you to build the entire constellation and then light it
25:01
up and then turn off the old one and then.
25:03
You know, what do you do with all those old satellites because
25:06
they're all floating up their space like how do you do orbit
25:08
them? But beyond that, let's talk
25:10
about the regulatory perspective, right.
25:12
So if Amazon goes the regulars and say hey I want.
25:17
To. Put up a new consolation and I
25:21
want to provide like directed device service, but I want to
25:25
lower the orbit from 1400 to 6 or 700 or 500 and you pick.
25:33
That's going to be a very long review process, right?
25:35
Like they're going to have to go ask to get their the orbits
25:40
lowered and you know. I I don't.
25:44
Know what they're going to do with the old satellites but then
25:47
that process I'm I'm not you know, I, I'll have to talk to
25:50
like some FCC people or I guess you know, quick hand, you know,
25:54
talk to an AI, but that's going to be pretty complex right Like
25:58
you are transitioning from the old consolation to a newer 1 and
26:02
then you're kind of like trying to build the airplane while it's
26:05
flying like how do you do that right and so do you by
26:10
maintaining your old slots and then asking for new slots that
26:13
are much lower is there some type of commitment or
26:17
adjustments you have to make? And again, there's going to be a
26:19
regulatory review process. There's also going to be people
26:21
who are already in those orbits, like at 45600, you know, that
26:26
will have a say in it, right? Like, oh, in terms of orbital
26:31
collision risk and all these different things, right?
26:33
And so that's a pretty long regulatory process, which
26:36
obviously Amazon will probably learn about what they're trying
26:39
to do in the next few months. Because they need to start, they
26:43
need to get going like right now.
26:44
They need to start that regulatory review process and
26:48
layout their plans and what they're going to do.
26:50
And so this is all really complex.
26:52
Like it's not. This whole idea where the market
26:56
and these. You know, hair brand research.
26:57
Channels are like, well, you know, this is a competitive, you
27:01
know, this is going to have a a, a.
27:04
Squeeze margins and do all these different things.
27:06
Well, hey, you guys are getting you're putting the cart, you
27:08
know the cart before the horse. Like let's let's first think
27:11
about like exactly when a true Amazon that would be somewhat
27:16
competitive directed device constellation go up like in my
27:19
guess, it's probably more like 20-30, twenty 31 and so by that
27:23
time. Like is there a market left, I
27:24
mean? So when, when Amazon announced
27:28
in this press release that they were going to develop this
27:31
service and work with potential partners and M and OS, like,
27:34
yeah, I, I would like to too, if I, if I created a new direct
27:38
advice service, I'm going to put out a press release and say I'd
27:40
like to work with a bunch of M and OS and strategic partners.
27:43
But you know. That's all talk like act and
27:47
actually delivering that, that's tough.
27:49
But the benefit is that and and you saw this with chair car
27:54
yesterday. Brendan Carr for the FCC.
27:57
When he was being interviewed on CNBC, he's physically sad and
28:01
this is good for the administration, of course and
28:03
it's good for regulators. He said, hey, yeah, we, we would
28:07
welcome this Amazon deal. We support a facilities based
28:11
three player market because it'll be good for the consumer,
28:13
which generally is true, right. When you and by the way, when
28:17
someone says facilities based, that means like this, this
28:19
player has physical assets and they can compete at a a similar,
28:24
you know, playing level as the two incumbents, which in this
28:27
case are Starlink and AC space mobile.
28:31
When they talk about that, it's like in any market, you know, in
28:35
terms of competitive, there's a hyphen Herfendall index where
28:39
you talk about how competitive market it is.
28:41
And if there's like, you know, four or five players that's
28:44
really competitive. And, you know, DOJFTC folks go
28:47
through this analysis like an airline mergers or, you know,
28:50
any merger, you know, wireless, for example, like in the
28:54
wireless business, when there used to be 6 carriers, it was
28:57
way more competitive. And then when there was four, it
28:59
was, you know, it was pretty competitive still.
29:02
And then the regulators made a big mistake, allowed T-Mobile,
29:05
Sprint and Birds and then became 3 and then it became way less
29:08
competitive, right? And so this is like a, this is
29:12
something that the FTFCC likes. It's like, oh, OK, Amazon's
29:15
going to buy Global star and it's going to be a three player
29:18
market. Which by the way, like he said
29:21
that and then he had to like hit a backtrack and say, well,
29:24
actually there's other players. Coming too Which?
29:27
These other players that he's. Referring to are like Iridium or
29:31
like this biosat, you know Bioshat JB with two other random
29:36
players because you want competitiveness, right?
29:39
You want a market where consumers have choice and so.
29:44
You know, when when you talk about facility space, you know,
29:46
they don't want someone who's a virtual player, like a mobile
29:49
virtual network operator, you know, just a, a selling or
29:53
marketing arm that's reselling stuff from somebody else.
29:56
But it was very telling when he said that because.
30:00
You know, and this, this is a key, key aspect of how the deal
30:02
is being positioned, Amazon said.
30:05
Hey, we are going to try to get our own satellites up in 2028,
30:09
when in fact they're actually talking about what was already
30:12
being. Done which is global *.
30:14
The C3 satellites and then we are planning to work with M and
30:17
OS and treat your partners sure you're of course you're going to
30:20
try because like that's that's like the most profitable and
30:23
economic way to go about this right.
30:25
You're. Going to want to somehow
30:27
wrangle, you know, T-Mobile way, which which by the way, like
30:31
that would be easy because the exclusivity is done this summer.
30:35
Although, you know, I'm sure Starlink would fight that and
30:40
probably give T-Mobile a deal that a better deal than 8020
30:43
that T-Mobile is currently on. But it's going to take time,
30:47
right? But the, the press release
30:50
saying these things is really to, you know, accelerate
30:55
regulatory review because regulators love when you say I'm
30:58
going to bring more competition to this market.
31:01
And as a result, like, please approve my deal.
31:03
And and so, you know, for, for Chairman Carr to say it's a
31:07
three player race between Starlink, Amazon and AST, like
31:13
that's a huge me. When I heard that, I was like,
31:15
oh, that's great. That's like a big point of
31:17
validation. He's talking about this market
31:18
being huge and AST is like clearly on the top of his mind
31:23
that also, you know, pretty much says like regular approval is
31:26
coming, who knows when. But it's coming.
31:29
And then it was funny because like when you said three player
31:31
market, he's he, you know, he's obviously saying, I guess like
31:35
global star in his current form, Iridium, any number of players
31:39
are not competitors. And so that that that told me.
31:43
Quite a bit. But, you know, you see, like,
31:45
some of these trolls on Twitter who are like, well, you know,
31:48
Amazon, who wants to compete with them, they're going to beat
31:50
you guys up. And it's like, well, they've got
31:53
to develop a product. 1st. And then they've got to get to
31:56
market and then they've got to figure out how they're going to
31:59
sell this product. They got to get through all
32:01
these technological hurdles. You got to get to regulatory
32:03
reviews. They've got to adjust the orbits
32:06
of the constellation. Like there's a ton of complexity
32:10
that they've got to get through. And by that time ace to we, you
32:15
know, well embedded with many customers globally with M and
32:19
OS. And so the the competitive mode
32:22
is going to be pretty high. Now, Amazon.
32:24
Eventually, of course, they will get.
32:25
To some type of service. And it's not really clear like
32:28
even if they're interested in doing direct device, they can
32:30
say all these things, the press release and you know, from
32:32
regulatory interview, of course you're going to say those
32:34
things. But are they really focused on
32:36
that? I mean with, with the S band
32:39
part of their spectrum for downlink, they also have this,
32:43
this unique authorization where, where they can repurpose part of
32:46
it into for you know for your threshold.
32:49
Use which is N 53 this band and so for example they can go to an
32:54
enterprise and say hey if you want a private enterprise
32:57
network you can just use this band and license it from us and
33:00
we'll give you equipment and you can do that and it's not going
33:03
to be I think conflicting with their current MSS business
33:08
because you can also reuse that spectrum for satellite use and
33:12
so within you know a private network, someone's probably not
33:15
going to be using their satellite phone so you're not
33:17
going to care about the interference but.
33:20
There's a whole. There's a whole host of
33:21
applications that could make sense for Amazon.
33:23
And of course, there is a defensive nature of this deal
33:26
where Amazon saw potentially that this was going to fall into
33:31
Starling's hands. And like shit, you know, we
33:34
might miss this market if we don't make a stand here and at
33:36
least. Plant a flag.
33:39
In the ground and, and get some ownership of spectrum, which by
33:41
the way, like if we can't build satellites fast enough or if we
33:45
end up not getting there in terms of technology, you know
33:48
this these guys over here ACC mobile they've got like 3800
33:52
patents and they've been working on this for a long time and and
33:54
how do we engineer around this patents or maybe pay them
33:57
royalties, but maybe it's too much trouble.
33:59
So maybe I'll just go to a bell because we know that Jeff Bezos.
34:02
And. Belle, Avalon are are good
34:04
friends. We all go to him and say I, you
34:07
know, I can't show my cards right now.
34:08
I can't tell regulators that this is what I.
34:10
Really want to do. But I know in my back pocket a
34:13
few years from now, once, once I've kind of gone through some
34:17
of these motions and made sure by the way, like this deal
34:19
closes, I get regulatory approval.
34:23
Then. Maybe I'll just.
34:24
Go to a bell and say, hey, you got that big band block three
34:27
constellation up there. Can I can can you light up my
34:30
spectrum for me? And I'll pay you for it.
34:32
And then of course, some of the M and OS might be like, well,
34:34
no, we don't want Amazon in here.
34:35
And then then Amazon could say, well, you know, I'll let you
34:38
guys use it too as part of your service as.
34:41
As part of my like. Buy in to work with you guys and
34:44
so that maybe that'll work. And so I think, you know,
34:46
there's there's some folks who are who have alluded to this
34:50
wondering if it's possible. And it certainly is possible.
34:52
I mean, anything's possible. Like you tomorrow, you know,
34:58
Google might wake up and be like, I need to be in this
35:00
business, which I don't think they think that way.
35:02
They just care about selling, you know, phones and and more
35:05
devices, but as they move into AI data centers and need to have
35:10
a presence in space and oh, this company is T like where are you
35:13
working with them? We have a strategic investment.
35:16
They're very important to our mobile business and and Internet
35:20
of Things. And then they have all the IP
35:22
around what I need to do for AI data centers in space.
35:26
Maybe I should just buy these guys like that can happen
35:28
tomorrow too, right? Like it, it people kind of think
35:32
about the competitive landscape for these highly innovative,
35:36
innovative like areas as being very static where they don't
35:39
change. No, these, these things change
35:41
all the time. Like if you if you were in the
35:43
boardroom of of Google, like you clearly had a look at Global
35:49
Star and you clearly know who ASD Space Mobile is and you
35:52
clearly know what Starlink's doing and what a big.
35:54
Threat SpaceX is with XAI and. Data centers and so on, the
35:59
strategic list of, you know, when bakers go in, they present
36:03
to the board and there's like strategic options in order to
36:06
counter some of these moves or be innovative or thinking ahead.
36:11
ASD Space Mobile is on that page of like strategic options.
36:14
I guarantee you it does. Having been a former banker,
36:17
like I would put it on the page and like, hey, this ASD Space
36:23
mobile. It solves your directed device
36:25
connectivity, edge computing connectivity.
36:28
It also allows you to really go ahead first into data centers in
36:32
space because they've got all these patents around like heat
36:35
dissipation and. Yeah, I mean just, you know,
36:38
high power in space, 100 kilowatt satellite, I mean it's
36:41
all there now. Isabella seller.
36:44
No, he's not a seller today is that's my belief.
36:47
But if things change in the future, could he be a seller or?
36:51
You know if if. If Google makes them an offer he
36:53
can't refuse and gives them like autonomy to keep building out
36:56
this dream, then it could be possible, right?
37:01
Like, and what price would that take?
37:03
I don't know 23200300400I. I would be obviously I want to
37:07
see the company get through further development and into
37:11
service and achieve on its own like 3, four, $500 within the
37:15
next. Year or two.
37:16
But at the same time, like if Google risk adjusted gives you
37:20
all cash for, you know, $300 today, like that would probably
37:23
be a hard offer to refuse. But that's certainly possible,
37:28
right? And so.
37:30
Yeah, I just. Want to make sure like people
37:32
understand that this Amazon boogeyman global star is is
37:37
very, very far out now the noise is going to be there and the
37:39
overing is going to be there, but on the flip side, the
37:42
awareness and interest is going to be there.
37:45
I think people like forget what you know, on the one hand,
37:50
Starlink when they announced this plan with T-Mobile, the
37:52
stock I remember AST was like, gosh, it was like single digit
37:56
single digits and it dropped and of course everybody was like
37:59
deflated and my you know this sucks like we had this like
38:03
great path to to the the promised land.
38:07
But now Starlink is here and we've.
38:08
Got to battle all the FUD. But on the flip side, like it
38:11
brought education and awareness to the market, right?
38:13
And it's like, oh, this guy, Elon Musk, like he's he's
38:17
entering into this market. He doesn't enter into small
38:19
markets, like he's not putting up a lemonade stand.
38:21
Like he enters markets that are liquid billions of dollars of
38:25
potential, right. And so he entered the market,
38:28
Apple entered the market with a with a half baked idea, but
38:31
they. Did and and so.
38:34
While most people are like, oh, I, I loathed the day that that
38:37
happened. That actually was a positive.
38:39
I mean, remember, like when Elon Musk, you know, got into a fight
38:44
with with Trump and and of course, like European countries
38:47
like ASD space mobile rally, like anything that was non non
38:51
Musk related rallied, right? Because and then the US
38:55
government and you know, we haven't even talked about the
38:56
government business, but the US specifically said like, hey, in
39:00
the future, we've got to diversify our suppliers.
39:03
We can't rely on only SpaceX. We've got to like bring in other
39:08
companies and, and that was a huge positive callous for, for
39:13
ASC. And so I think obviously, you
39:15
know, the, the pain is near and dear it's yeah, we dropped from
39:19
the 90s to we're at 85 today. And, and like I said, like it's
39:23
going to take 2-3 days for this market to digest this news and
39:28
the, the tourist and the weekends that they're going to
39:30
be pushed out. And then they're going to be
39:32
buying back in at like 1/21/30 in just what, a few days weeks.
39:38
Because like people forget like everyone just so focused on this
39:42
Amazon boogeyman, which again is not for another 5-4, five years
39:47
at best. And so if, if some guy at
39:50
Deutsche Bank is doing ATCF models like, oh, margins are
39:53
compressed by 15%, yeah, maybe in out years.
39:55
And by then like the market is so massive, it really doesn't
39:58
matter. But then.
40:00
Let's think about like the here and now.
40:01
So we've got a launch at the long delay, but it's going to
40:05
happen a launch of Bluebird 7 on Blue Origin New Glenn 3.
40:09
Like that's this weekend. It's not, it's not a month from
40:11
now, it's not from a year from now.
40:12
It's it's this weekend. And then you've got after that
40:17
you got the first batch shipment of of Block 2 composite
40:22
Bluebirds. I mean the, the first ever
40:24
composite Bluebirds that that's going to happen within the next
40:26
what one or two weeks and then that's going to go up on a
40:29
Falcon 9, which is going to happen in May and shortly
40:34
thereafter, I don't know how quickly after, but there's going
40:37
to be another batch of three. They're going to be shipped down
40:39
to Florida and that's going to be on another Falcon 9.
40:42
And then you've got from our due diligence, which for those
40:48
that's all some of the posts about an Antonov and 124 coming
40:52
from India. We believe that that dropped
40:54
off. A batch of composite rings, the
40:56
newer reinforced ones, and this will be for Bluebirds
41:00
1415161718192021 because I think there's probably eight rings
41:05
that were unloaded, perhaps 8 to 8 to I'm.
41:08
Sorry, perhaps 6 to 8. So there's those are going to be
41:14
integrated with their microns and the rest of the good stuff
41:18
and then tested and shipped out probably the first batch of
41:22
those probably sometime in May. And so the people who are, you
41:27
know, whining on Twitter, it's like, what was me stocks at 85?
41:32
I saw some guys like, oh, I've lost a few $100,000 and you
41:36
know, a bell, please like put out APR.
41:38
You've lost nothing like you. You've lost money if you sell it
41:42
and you recognize the loss. But if you're not, I mean, this
41:46
is like, this is just bread and butter face to you like this,
41:49
this level of volatility. This is just normal course, like
41:52
you're going to have FUD or you're not people
41:55
misunderstanding things or just the regular, you know,
41:58
matchinations that the volatility of the markets where
42:02
you know, if I ran headlines or I don't know, like all space
42:05
stocks, by the way, most of them were down yesterday.
42:07
There's like some mixed performance today.
42:09
I guess quantum and nuclear are like the hot things again, which
42:13
is fine. Like that's, that's the nature
42:15
of the beast, right? But you know, I'm going to talk
42:18
a bit more about this with in the mid space later at 5:00 PM
42:22
today. But I mean, space is where
42:23
you're going to be invested because you've got commercial,
42:26
absolute, 100% commercial focus, launch communications, data
42:30
centers, earth observation, all that stuff.
42:33
And then you've got defense, like you've got commercial and
42:37
defense piling in dollars, right?
42:39
And, and whether it's the conflict in Iran or this, this
42:45
move to AA data centers in space, this is where all the
42:48
investment. Dollars are going.
42:50
And you want to be invested in leaders.
42:52
I, I know there's like these smaller companies have done well
42:54
and they're all like trading vehicles, but you need to own AC
42:58
and, and you're going to have periods of time where you're
43:02
going to have a drawdown and then.
43:05
You know we're. We're clearly going through a
43:07
digestive period where people are internalizing the news And,
43:12
and if there's I, I don't know if there's that many smart
43:14
institutions, but if they peel back layers and understand
43:19
Amazon, what that means competitively and when they can
43:22
actually get to market. It's a, it's a nothing burger
43:25
right now. It, it, it could have some
43:27
impact in 5-6 years, but it's not, you know, and there's going
43:31
to be along the way, there's going to be like presentations
43:33
by the company and some announcements and some movements
43:36
at the FCC. So we'll learn more, But that's
43:39
a long time away, right? And so the company, as we've
43:42
stated before, like they're in a race against themselves.
43:45
They've got to get this service up and running, which by the
43:48
way, like Block 2 Bluebirds, that service is what what
43:54
Starlink is trying to push is not, you know, for V2 is not
43:57
going to be even at the level of Block 2 satellites for AST.
44:01
And so it's truly A1 on one service where there aren't any
44:05
real competitors out there for the company, not for the near
44:09
term, not for the medium term, probably not for the long term,
44:12
as long as they execute, right. And so that's that's a key
44:14
thing. But we're on this, we're on the
44:17
precipice of execution. Like this launch campaign is
44:20
finally getting going. And so, yeah, I mean, I think
44:24
for a number of people who are on Twitter, have some self
44:29
respect, man. Like I understand your, your
44:34
exasperation and and of course, I me too, Like I there are times
44:37
when I get frustrated, but have some respect for yourself, man.
44:40
Like if you need therapy, go seek private help by, you know,
44:46
going out in the public and making appeals to management
44:51
and, you know, beating, beating up on other people or I don't
44:57
know what it is like trying to be toxic and, and try to make
45:00
other people kind of follow your negativity.
45:03
Go outside, touch grass. Do something like ask yourself
45:07
like why you're investing in the company.
45:08
Go through your thesis, see if you feel comfortable with it.
45:12
If not, then then sell the stock.
45:14
Right. But I think, you know, the
45:17
reason why I say this is like, I remember in April of 2024 and
45:22
leading up to that, when we had an all time low, there were so
45:24
many people that were negative that owned stock.
45:27
And we're telling people like management are awful and and you
45:32
know, provided they were spewing so much negativity and and yet
45:36
they held on, right? But they were on Twitter daily
45:40
spewing negativity where it actually forced some people who
45:42
I knew to sell at the bottom. And then of course, like, you
45:46
know, the big news came out AT&T commercial agreement we signed
45:50
Verizon came in game changing. And then all people who sold
45:53
out, they lost out on they not only recognized massive losses,
45:57
but they lost out on all the upside.
45:59
While these people are spewing so much negative stuff, they
46:02
actually held on and they ended up doing really well.
46:05
And I will never forget like some of those people where it's
46:09
like the back of my mind. You guys don't deserve that,
46:11
man. Just like causing all this like
46:14
mental anguish and heartache for people and, and causing some
46:17
people to lose money and get you held and then you did, you
46:21
benefited from that. Anyway, enough ranting.
46:24
But but yeah, for those people who are having tough time, like
46:28
speak to loved ones, go go outside, ride a bike, lift
46:31
weights, go swimming, go touch grass, stop, you know, stop
46:34
watching every tick of the stock price.
46:37
If that's what you're you're focused on, you know, day-to-day
46:41
stock price movements and you're getting upset like the stock is
46:44
down. Maybe you're too big.
46:46
Maybe you should sell some shares and, you know, be in a
46:48
position where you don't worry about the day-to-day swings.
46:51
I mean, for me, as I've mentioned for in the past, like,
46:54
you know, I've, I've sold some portion of my stock or warrants
46:58
previously and then stock at various times where I don't
47:02
really care about the stock anymore because like financially
47:05
I'm fine. And then everything else is just
47:07
gravy. And so if the stock is up to
47:10
1:30 or if it's down to like 80, I'm really indifferent.
47:14
Obviously, like when it's at 1:30, I'm quite happy and maybe
47:17
I'll like order of extra few things at the restaurant and it
47:19
was down to 80. I might be a little grumpy to my
47:23
wife and kids, but I quickly get over that because because I've,
47:27
you know, I've saved enough and earned enough where it's like it
47:30
doesn't matter. So anyway, that's my space.
47:34
I think hopefully this has helped people and I'm going to
47:39
be doing a space with Amit on his YouTube channel at 5:00 PM
47:43
today. So we'll talk about some of this
47:44
stuff, the SpaceX IPO, Amazon. And by the way, like this was an
47:49
interesting, you know, data point.
47:51
Amazon traded up on the announcement of this deal, $120
47:54
billion in market cap. So what does that tell you about
47:58
the opportunity? Like Elon Musk is spending $23
48:02
billion on Spectrum and you know, Jeff Bezos just spent $11
48:07
billion or actually it's probably not fully Jeff Bezos.
48:10
It's it's the guys who are running Amazon.
48:12
But but they spent $11 billion to get into this.
48:16
And you know, their stock traded up in terms of market cap, $120
48:19
billion. While the legacy consultants
48:23
tell you that there's not much of A market or opportunity to
48:25
hear the market and actual industry participants who are
48:30
highly strategic and think long term are telling you vastly
48:34
different. Like the exact opposite.
48:36
Like this is the place where you want to be.
48:38
And you know, obviously the SpaceX IPO, all the meat is in
48:43
Starlink, right? And all the growth for Starlink
48:45
is in direct to sell. So follow what the big guys are
48:48
doing. Forget the the naysayers and,
48:51
and, and the guys who who haven't done anything in their
48:55
lives except, you know, criticize what other people are
48:58
doing. But anyway, I'll end it there
49:00
and thanks for joining and we'll talk again soon.
49:03
Take care. Thanks for listening to the AST
49:06
Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
49:10
you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
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others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
49:16
review. To catch all the latest news
49:18
about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
49:22
Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
49:28
We're doing something very, very big and I think with this
49:30
technology we can really affect billion lives.
49:33
AST space globally is the only company that has proven
49:37
technology to deliver several broadband connectivity directly
49:41
through space. To do everyday smartphone.
49:44
People will just basically turn their phone and be seamless,
49:47
regardless of where you are. We don't want the newspaper even
49:50
to know that it's connected by satellite.
49:53
Our role is to bring this into reality, always.