Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 55: Are We in a Constitutional Crisis?

Transcript

Episode 55: Are We in a Constitutional Crisis? · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  Ready to take a deeper look at where history,
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  politics,
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  and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Each week,
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  SPEAKER_00: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
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  SPEAKER_00: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
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  SPEAKER_00: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today is March 20th, 2025, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
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  SPEAKER_00: As usual, here is my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So Christian, how was your week?
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  SPEAKER_00: It was good, Neil.
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  SPEAKER_01: Friday got up at 2.30 a.m.
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  to see the lunar eclipse,
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  also called the Blood Moon,
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  which was pretty cool.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, the moon turns this deep red color for about 30 minutes.
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  SPEAKER_01: And there's not much to say.
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  SPEAKER_01: It was just an interesting event to watch.
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  SPEAKER_00: You're going to explain it to us?
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  SPEAKER_00: You know, I do come from a family of astronomers.
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  SPEAKER_00: I know, I'm going to embarrass myself.
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  SPEAKER_00: I can tell you what I suspect.
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  SPEAKER_00: Tell me what you suspect.
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  SPEAKER_00: I suspect that you have light bleeding around.
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  SPEAKER_00: This was a total lunar eclipse, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: So you have light bleeding around...
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  SPEAKER_00: The eclipse,
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  SPEAKER_00: it is coming in at a very acute angle,
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  SPEAKER_00: so it's passing through a lot of atmosphere,
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  SPEAKER_00: which takes out the low,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: the low wavelength sleeves and the long wavelengths,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is the reddish hue.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's the same reason why sunset turns red.
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
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  SPEAKER_00: It sounds right to me.
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  SPEAKER_00: It sounds right.
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  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
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  SPEAKER_00: With that, we will continue.
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  SPEAKER_00: As always,
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  SPEAKER_00: let me remind all of our listeners,
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  SPEAKER_00: if you like this podcast,
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  SPEAKER_00: please go ahead and share it with your family and friends.
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  SPEAKER_00: Repost it on social media.
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  SPEAKER_00: Christian, let's get into today's podcast.
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  SPEAKER_00: We...
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  SPEAKER_00: You know, we got a lot to talk about.
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  I must say,
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  since the beginning of the year,
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  the pace of things has really kind of pushed up.
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  Let's go over big topics and then we'll turn back to market
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  news according to our
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  SPEAKER_00: usual rhythm,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: First of all, let's start with issues here at home.
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  SPEAKER_00: After D.C.
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  Circuit Court Judge James Boasberg issued a temporary
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  restraining order against
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  SPEAKER_00: Trump's deportation of gang members to El Salvador,
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  President Trump and other White House leaders called for
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  Boesburg's impeachment,
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  which in turn caused Supreme Court Justice John Roberts to
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  issue an extraordinary
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  SPEAKER_00: warning against efforts to intimidate the U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: judiciary.
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  SPEAKER_00: We will certainly be talking about that.
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  SPEAKER_00: The U.S.
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  Senate narrowly averted a government shutdown when Minority
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  Leader Chuck Schumer
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  SPEAKER_00: persuaded nine other Democrats to vote with the Republicans.
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  SPEAKER_00: A very controversial choice, which we'll get to in just a second.
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  SPEAKER_00: And over the weekend,
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  Trump signed an executive order that effectively silenced Voice
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  of America and
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  SPEAKER_00: Radio Free Asia,
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  two beacons of uncensored news to hundreds of millions of
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  people living in
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  SPEAKER_00: autocracies like Russia,
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  SPEAKER_00: China,
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  SPEAKER_00: Burma,
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  SPEAKER_00: North Korea,
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  SPEAKER_00: and many others.
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  SPEAKER_00: Let's now turn to issues abroad.
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  SPEAKER_00: Following a two-hour conversation between Trump and Putin,
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  SPEAKER_00: Putin offered support for only a very weak,
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  immediate ceasefire in the Ukraine war unless Ukraine gave up
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  additional territory,
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  SPEAKER_00: partially disarm and not align itself with other Western nations.
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  SPEAKER_00: On Tuesday...
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  Israel declared an end to the ceasefire with Hamas by launching
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  a series of deadly
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  SPEAKER_00: airstrikes across the Gaza Strip.
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  SPEAKER_00: And on Saturday,
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  President Trump authorized airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen
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  while warning Iran
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  that it would be blamed for every missile that the Houthis
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  launch at Israel or into
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  SPEAKER_00: the Red Sea.
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  SPEAKER_00: So there you have it.
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  SPEAKER_00: We're going to get to all these in just a second.
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  SPEAKER_00: But first, Christian, what about markets?
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  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil.
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  SPEAKER_01: The S&P closed down today 0.22% and over the last five days is up 2.56%.
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  SPEAKER_01: As for the global Dow,
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  SPEAKER_01: that closed down 0.07%,
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  SPEAKER_01: almost flat,
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  SPEAKER_01: and over the last five days is up 2.67%.
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  SPEAKER_01: The VIX today closed at 19.85.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's similar to where we saw it last week.
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  SPEAKER_01: And as for the 10-year treasury,
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  SPEAKER_01: that is at 4.235%,
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  SPEAKER_01: down 3.8 basis points over the last five days.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, I guess you'd say not a lot happening.
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  SPEAKER_00: We saw a little bit of bounce back,
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  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
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  SPEAKER_00: from what was really a terribly bearish week before.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the VIX, under 20?
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  SPEAKER_01: Yep, just barely.
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, you know, not quite down where you'd want to be.
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  SPEAKER_00: playing with, I don't know, doing a lot with options.
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  SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting.
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  SPEAKER_00: And we're going to see what happens.
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  SPEAKER_00: I would say, let's get into some of the market indicator news.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think it'll explain a little bit why markets are nervous, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: I think we have sentiment indicators and I think a few...
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  SPEAKER_00: regional Fed indicators.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right.
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  We got the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment for March,
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  which fell from 64.7 to 57.9.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's the lowest reading we've seen since November 2022.
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  SPEAKER_01: Then if we go to these manufacturing indexes,
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  SPEAKER_01: we have the New York State regional for March,
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  SPEAKER_01: which fell from 5.7 to negative 20,
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  SPEAKER_01: a large decline there.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's the lowest level we've seen since May 2023.
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  SPEAKER_01: We also saw a decline in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index for March,
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  SPEAKER_01: which fell from 18.1 to 12.5.
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  SPEAKER_01: I will say this reading was still slightly above expectations.
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  Yeah,
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  but we don't see a huge turnaround in the markets right after
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  that big fall.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: A little bit of a bounce, I think, disappointing to a lot of people.
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  SPEAKER_00: People are beginning to talk about, they're using the R word, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: We are seeing talk about recession, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
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  You see all these big houses are beginning to,
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  you know,
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  up their,
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  you know.
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  SPEAKER_00: what you can imagine, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: They're upping their odds of recession this year.
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  SPEAKER_00: Here's how I look at that.
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  I look at that as being really the outcome of negative sentiment,
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  as we've seen.
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  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, that number from Michigan was huge.
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  SPEAKER_00: That number, what was it again?
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  SPEAKER_00: Negative 23.2, is that it?
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: Michigan fell from 64.7 to 57.9.
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  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, but year-over-year difference, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's what I was looking at.
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  SPEAKER_00: So anyway,
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  the year-over-year negative on that is they're only about eight
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  times in the last,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: since the 1970s when we've seen it that low.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you see the...
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  SPEAKER_00: You see the conference board index was also down.
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  SPEAKER_00: I do believe that even small business, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Did you look at that?
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_01: For February, that's down near 100.
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  SPEAKER_01: I think its peak was 102 after Trump was elected.
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  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: So you saw the huge Trump bounce, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is disproportionately a Trump vote, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: And that kind of came down too.
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  The Economist actually had an interesting essay on this,
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  and they hypothesized that
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  the Democrats are particularly negative right now,
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  you know,
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  about the economic prospects.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the Democrats are wealthier.
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  So maybe they're the ones who are both pushing the markets and
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  pushing the
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  SPEAKER_00: sentiment in a negative direction.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it may also explain why
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  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump is a little bit blasé about the possibility of a recession.
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  SPEAKER_00: And this too may be influencing markets negatively, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Everyone used to assume,
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  SPEAKER_00: and I did too,
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  SPEAKER_00: given his first term,
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  SPEAKER_00: that Trump was very averse to negative markets,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Markets, how the S&P was doing was a sign of how well he was doing.
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  SPEAKER_00: suddenly he seems much more tolerant, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: The market fall today is all about the failure of Biden economics, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't really reflect on me.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yes, a recession is possible.
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  SPEAKER_00: Maybe one wouldn't even be that bad.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you did see that Scott Besant,
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  SPEAKER_00: the Treasury Secretary,
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  SPEAKER_00: echoed the same message and said,
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  SPEAKER_00: recession may be worth it to affect what he called a transition.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think he also said, I can tell you that corrections, meaning
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  SPEAKER_00: Stock market corrections falls of more than 10%.
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  SPEAKER_00: He said they are healthy.
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  SPEAKER_00: They are normal.
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  As you can imagine,
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  that doesn't exactly get all these K holders feeling very good.
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  SPEAKER_00: And maybe they're looking at the pattern of Ronald Reagan.
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  SPEAKER_00: Maybe something that Javier Malay is trying to replicate, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: In Argentina, he's
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  SPEAKER_00: take your big hit up front, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: If you need a big hit,
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  get the valuations down early in your presidency so that later
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  on you can bask in
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  SPEAKER_00: the glory of recovery,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think there's something to that.
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  SPEAKER_00: So that's part of it, I think, making people nervous.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the other is obviously just the huge overvaluation of the market.
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  SPEAKER_00: The S&P remains hugely overvalued.
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  SPEAKER_00: Household ownership of corporate equity
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  SPEAKER_00: as a share of disposable income.
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  SPEAKER_00: Going into last month was 170% of disposable income.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's up from 60% to 90% in the wake of the GFC,
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  SPEAKER_00: or even no more than 120% at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
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  SPEAKER_00: In other words, the valuation of equity, the total market cap of U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: equity,
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  relative to what we all consume,
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  relative to household income,
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  is very,
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  very high.
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  SPEAKER_00: I saw recently that over 25 million Americans have Robinhood accounts.
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  SPEAKER_00: That kind of scared me.
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  SPEAKER_00: And margin loans are becoming more democratized,
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  SPEAKER_00: and the total amount of margin lending is going back up again,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: after coming back,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: through much of late 2023 and 2024.
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  SPEAKER_00: And last but not least...
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  SPEAKER_00: The Uncertainty Index, the Policy Uncertainty Index.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I would urge people to go take a look at that.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's easily available on Fred.
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  SPEAKER_00: You can just look at it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Go on, just type in Fred Policy Uncertainty, and you'll see this index.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you can see that never,
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  SPEAKER_00: or I should say rarely,
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  SPEAKER_00: have Americans been so uncertain about policy.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now, how do they know this?
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  SPEAKER_00: Well,
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  SPEAKER_00: they actually look at the wording of economic stories,
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  SPEAKER_00: stories about markets and the economy,
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  SPEAKER_00: and they see how much of the verbiage has to do with uncertainty.
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  SPEAKER_00: We are now at very high levels,
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  SPEAKER_00: about 500,
• 11:05
  only two times since the mid-1980s that we've been as high as
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  we've been today.
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  SPEAKER_00: One is at the peak of COVID, really in the spring and summer of 2020.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the other was at the peak of the GFC, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Uncertainty.
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  SPEAKER_00: What the heck is this uncertainty about?
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, I don't know.
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  SPEAKER_00: Where is this country going?
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  SPEAKER_00: It's not only where are we going, but where are we trying to go?
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  SPEAKER_00: I think,
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  SPEAKER_00: in other words,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not just how competently are we getting there,
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  SPEAKER_00: but where are we actually,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know what I mean?
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  SPEAKER_00: Where is America going, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: We're doing all these tariffs.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: We're doing this new reset of foreign policy to go where, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: What is America supposed to be?
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  I think there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty right now in
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  America about that.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know, we know what we don't like.
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, we don't like a lot of illegal immigration.
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  SPEAKER_00: We don't like a lot of woke stuff.
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  SPEAKER_00: But beyond that, you know, it's kind of like, what the hell, right?
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  Anyway,
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  maybe that's a good way to introduce the topics we're going to
• 12:13
  be going through.
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  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we ought to start off.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have anything to add to that?
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I think that this could be a little bit of trouble for Trump.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think people are worried.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, recessions don't just hit the stock market.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: They hit jobs and everything and trickle on down.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, they do.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 12:33
  You know,
• 12:33
  this could be explained a little bit,
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  the difference in sentiment.
• 12:38
  is the dollar's going down and Europe's looking a little
• 12:41
  relatively better.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you talked about the European indicators coming out.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: We had the Eurozone economic sentiment in March,
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: which rose from 24.2 to 39.8 above expectations.
• 12:57
  This is a survey that asks analysts what they expect for the
• 13:01
  Eurozone economy over the future.
• 13:03
  46% of analysts expect no change,
• 13:06
  47% expect improvement,
• 13:08
  and only 7% expect deterioration.
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  SPEAKER_01: So this is a lot better that we've seen.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Is this the newly spending Europe, the newly arming Europe?
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: What is this?
• 13:21
  I definitely think Germany getting rid of that debt break
• 13:24
  definitely helps.
• 13:25
  I know their lower House and Parliament just passed this so
• 13:28
  that they can do all
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: this defense spending.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: why don't we dive in to our first...
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: I guess this is all a good preliminary for getting these...
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: Some of the big issues in the news.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think we started with that D.C.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: District Court Judge James Boasberg.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, that's right.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: on Saturday,
• 13:49
  President Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport
• 13:54
  alleged members of
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: the Venezuelan gig Tren de Aragua to El Salvador.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: human rights organizations asked for the courts to immediately intervene,
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: arguing that the deportations bypassed standard due process protections.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: In response, U.S.
• 14:10
  District Judge James Bosberg issued a temporary restraining
• 14:13
  order halting these deportations,
• 14:16
  questioning the applicability of the Alien Enemies Act as it
• 14:19
  traditionally pertains
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: to nations at war with the U.S.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: despite the court order,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: Neil,
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: the administration proceeded with three deportation flights,
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: arguing that the verbal directive lacked enforceability for
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 14:34
  the judge is currently investigating whether the administration
• 14:36
  deliberately
• 14:37
  disobeyed his order and is demanding detailed information about
• 14:39
  these flights.
• 14:52
  Now,
• 14:52
  the Justice Department is refusing to provide details citing
• 14:56
  national security concerns.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: In fact,
• 14:59
  today they actually missed a deadline to give the judge answers
• 15:03
  and said that the
• 15:04
  cabinet secretaries were actually actively considering whether
• 15:07
  to invoke the state
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: secrets privilege.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: in response to this whole mess and the judicial intervention,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: President Trump actually called for the judge's impeachment.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: And a member of Congress,
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: Brandon Gill of Texas,
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: has already introduced articles of impeachment in the House.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: this led to an extraordinary moment,
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: Neil,
• 15:27
  where Chief Justice John Roberts publicly rebuked Trump's call
• 15:30
  for impeachment,
• 15:32
  emphasizing that disagreements with judicial decisions should
• 15:35
  be addressed through
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: the appellate process,
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: not impeachment.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, well, he had to speak up for his judiciary, right?
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if he didn't, who would?
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: The tweet that Trump made on Truth Social,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: this judge,
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: like many of the crooked judges I am forced to appear before,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: should be impeached,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: all in capitals with three exclamation points.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: This radical left lunatic of a judge,
• 16:04
  a troublemaker and an agitator who was sadly appointed by
• 16:08
  Barack Hussein Obama was
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: not elected.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, just kind of no need to repeat the whole rant here.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: So Roberts issued this statement.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, he didn't deliver it himself.
• 16:21
  He shared this statement with the Supreme Court's Public
• 16:25
  Information Office,
• 16:26
  right?
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: So it was just simply a prose delivered to the media.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: And he simply said this,
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: for more than two centuries,
• 16:33
  it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate
• 16:36
  response to
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: disagreement concerning a judicial decision.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.