Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | October 3rd, 2026: Neil deGrasse Tyson: Are We Ready for What AI Becomes Next?

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The PDB Situation Report | October 3rd, 2026: Neil deGrasse Tyson: Are We Ready for What AI Becomes Next? · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:07
  Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
• 0:09
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:10
  your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:13
  All right.
• 0:14
  Let's get briefed.
• 0:15
  And first up,
• 0:16
  artificial intelligence.
• 0:17
  Perhaps you've heard of it.
• 0:18
  And some people are calling it super intelligence,
• 0:20
  I hear,
• 0:21
  is advancing at a remarkable pace,
• 0:23
  raising big questions about where the technology is headed.
• 0:27
  Now,
• 0:27
  Neil deGrasse Tyson,
• 0:29
  perhaps you've heard of him,
• 0:30
  joins us to discuss the future of AI
• 0:33
  and whether we're prepared
• 0:34
  for what comes next,
• 0:36
  whatever that may be.
• 0:37
  Later in the show,
• 0:38
  the final US troops have now left Iraq,
• 0:40
  closing another chapter in America's long military presence there.
• 0:44
  Bill Roggio of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• 0:47
  joins us to discuss what the withdrawal means for Iraq,
• 0:50
  Iran,
• 0:51
  and the wider region.
• 0:53
  But first,
• 0:53
  today's Situation Report Spotlight.
• 0:56
  Artificial intelligence is advancing at a pace that has governments,
• 1:00
  scientists,
• 1:00
  and technology leaders
• 1:02
  asking an increasingly urgent question.
• 1:05
  Who sets the rules and can we control it?
• 1:08
  That's actually two questions.
• 1:09
  The debate is no longer just about what AI can do.
• 1:12
  It's about how much oversight is needed,
• 1:14
  who should be responsible when these systems cause harm,
• 1:17
  and whether governments can keep up with the technology that's changing faster
• 1:21
  than the laws meant to govern it.
• 1:23
  Some are calling for stronger international standards and greater transparency.
• 1:28
  Others warn
• 1:29
  that aggressive regulation could slow innovation
• 1:32
  and possibly leave the US behind.
• 1:35
  Joining me now is renowned astrophysicist,
• 1:38
  and that's the first time I've used the word renowned on the Situation Report,
• 1:41
  Neil deGrasse Tyson.
• 1:42
  Now,
• 1:42
  he's the director of the Hayden Planetarium at
• 1:44
  the American Museum of Natural History and,
• 1:47
  and quite frankly,
• 1:48
  so much more.
• 1:48
  He's also author of the book,
• 1:50
  Take Me to Your Leader,
• 1:51
  Perspectives on Your First Alien Encounter,
• 1:54
  which,
• 1:54
  uh,
• 1:55
  contrary to the title is not,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:57
  dating advice.
• 1:58
  So Neil,
• 1:59
  I wanna say thank you very much
• 2:01
  for joining,
• 2:03
  joining us here on the PDB Situation Report.
• 2:05
  It's a real honor,
• 2:06
  man.
• 2:06
  It's a real,
• 2:07
  well,
• 2:07
  well,
• 2:07
  if you wanted to date an alien,
• 2:08
  you could count it as dating advice,
• 2:10
  I think.
• 2:10
  But
• 2:12
  that's,
• 2:12
  that's true,
• 2:13
  you know,
• 2:14
  um,
• 2:15
  hey,
• 2:15
  so I was fascinated and,
• 2:17
  and
• 2:18
  about this,
• 2:19
  this idea of,
• 2:20
  of when,
• 2:21
  because I'm always interested in when people,
• 2:23
  you know,
• 2:23
  have their first inkling of what they wanna do with their lives.
• 2:26
  And
• 2:27
  I have heard that
• 2:29
  you were a very young,
• 2:30
  uh,
• 2:31
  individual
• 2:32
  when you
• 2:34
  sort of latched on to your,
• 2:35
  your,
• 2:36
  your path
• 2:37
  in life.
• 2:38
  Uh,
• 2:38
  can you tell me just,
• 2:39
  uh,
• 2:39
  you know,
• 2:40
  I wanna get this,
• 2:40
  we got so much to cover,
• 2:41
  but I'm really fascinated by that.
• 2:43
  Yeah,
• 2:43
  in fact,
• 2:44
  uh,
• 2:44
  my interest in the universe began at age 9 at a first visit
• 2:49
  to my local planetarium.
• 2:50
  I grew up in New York City,
• 2:52
  so that would be
• 2:53
  the Hayden Planetarium where I now serve as director.
• 2:56
  And so
• 2:58
  there's a certain poignancy to that only because now when I see
• 3:01
  9 year old kids walk through the facility.
• 3:04
  There's a certain duty and obligation to ensure
• 3:07
  that they are as touched
• 3:09
  by the universe
• 3:11
  as was I,
• 3:12
  uh,
• 3:13
  especially
• 3:13
  via the handiwork of,
• 3:15
  of
• 3:16
  scientists and educators back then,
• 3:18
  setting up programs
• 3:19
  and,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:21
  because any good museum will have,
• 3:24
  will have
• 3:24
  things for you to do beyond just the exhibits themselves.
• 3:28
  Because once you Pass through the exhibit.
• 3:30
  Are you gonna go through that again tomorrow?
• 3:31
  No,
• 3:32
  but there'll be a lecture series,
• 3:33
  there'll be,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:35
  you know,
• 3:35
  telescope night,
• 3:36
  this sort of thing.
• 3:37
  So it began at age 9.
• 3:39
  It would take me 2 years to figure out
• 3:41
  that you can
• 3:43
  make it a career.
• 3:44
  And so from age 9 onward is that magic moment where
• 3:48
  I had an answer
• 3:49
  to that annoying question adults always ask kids,
• 3:52
  which is what?
• 3:54
  What is it?
• 3:56
  Yeah,
• 3:57
  what do you want to be when you grow up?
• 3:58
  Exactly,
• 3:59
  and I would say I want to be an astrophysicist,
• 4:01
  and,
• 4:01
  and that usually shut him up because it was
• 4:04
  normally if you say I wanna be a doctor or a lawyer,
• 4:06
  oh,
• 4:06
  Aunt Matilda is a lawyer,
• 4:07
  Uncle Joe's a doctor.
• 4:09
  Nobody knew any astrophysicist.
• 4:12
  It's a pretty short.
• 4:13
  I would just shut him up,
• 4:14
  I would always say I wanted to be a made man in the mafia.
• 4:17
  Uh,
• 4:17
  OK,
• 4:18
  that would,
• 4:19
  that would keep him quiet.
• 4:20
  But
• 4:21
  I will say this,
• 4:22
  uh,
• 4:22
  Neil,
• 4:22
  I,
• 4:23
  I grew up,
• 4:24
  I'm of a certain age,
• 4:25
  so when I was young,
• 4:26
  yeah,
• 4:27
  basically 9,
• 4:28
  we were doing the moon shots,
• 4:29
  right?
• 4:29
  We were landing on the moon,
• 4:31
  and I remember
• 4:32
  at 8 and 9,
• 4:34
  staying up late with my dad to watch
• 4:37
  the landing and
• 4:39
  And so then I still have in,
• 4:41
  in my possession,
• 4:42
  uh,
• 4:42
  a piece of paper from
• 4:44
  that year
• 4:46
  when we were asked by the teacher,
• 4:48
  I want you to take one page and write about what you wanna do when you grow up.
• 4:51
  And it's all about me wanting to be an astronaut.
• 4:54
  And
• 4:55
  then
• 4:55
  I quickly realized I was
• 4:57
  nowhere near intelligent enough to be an astronaut.
• 5:01
  So,
• 5:02
  so I said,
• 5:03
  well,
• 5:03
  it's the CIA accepting people.
• 5:05
  And,
• 5:05
  um,
• 5:05
  so
• 5:07
  anyway,
• 5:07
  uh,
• 5:08
  like,
• 5:08
  don't push that red button.
• 5:10
  Not that button,
• 5:11
  this button,
• 5:12
  not that one.
• 5:13
  No.
• 5:14
  Um,
• 5:15
  so important that you,
• 5:16
  it's important that you mention this because,
• 5:18
  uh,
• 5:18
  I too had that same exposure to
• 5:21
  the unfolding of current events,
• 5:24
  the Apollo program.
• 5:25
  Yet,
• 5:26
  uh,
• 5:27
  I don't think we're that different in age,
• 5:29
  uh,
• 5:29
  but my interest in the universe was so far beyond
• 5:33
  the Earth-moon system.
• 5:34
  That the Apollo program,
• 5:36
  while I was intrigued by it,
• 5:37
  and of course I followed it
• 5:38
  as a major news story that it was,
• 5:41
  my ambitions to study the large scale universe
• 5:44
  were not fed by becoming an astronaut.
• 5:48
  That's really interesting.
• 5:49
  So everybody was,
• 5:50
  everybody was gobsmacked,
• 5:51
  amazed by what was happening,
• 5:53
  and you were like,
• 5:53
  me,
• 5:54
  it's just the moon.
• 5:56
  Let me tell you about
• 5:57
  the trillions of universes and galaxies out there.
• 6:01
  Yeah,
• 6:02
  so if I could,
• 6:03
  but I,
• 6:03
  I wanna talk about,
• 6:04
  um,
• 6:05
  I wanna talk about your latest book because it is fascinating,
• 6:07
  and,
• 6:08
  and I encourage everybody to get out there if they haven't already and,
• 6:10
  and get it.
• 6:11
  But I wanna start on a topic that really has consumed
• 6:15
  the headlines for the recent past,
• 6:17
  and that's artificial intelligence.
• 6:20
  And you and I have talked about this briefly,
• 6:22
  um,
• 6:23
  when we saw each other at,
• 6:24
  at,
• 6:24
  at our great friend Jimmy Pli,
• 6:26
  uh,
• 6:27
  shop,
• 6:28
  and
• 6:29
  I,
• 6:29
  I remember you mentioned that on the Pentagon's,
• 6:32
  yeah,
• 6:33
  Pentagon's Defense Innovation Board.
• 6:34
  You said you've been on that,
• 6:36
  um,
• 6:37
  and I guess before we talk about
• 6:39
  the board.
• 6:40
  I guess to,
• 6:41
  to,
• 6:41
  to help our listeners.
• 6:44
  Tell me where you stand on artificial intelligence.
• 6:46
  Is it,
• 6:47
  is it leading us
• 6:49
  down the path to doomsday,
• 6:50
  or is it
• 6:51
  a,
• 6:51
  uh,
• 6:52
  a brilliant innovation that will expand
• 6:54
  our,
• 6:54
  our world as,
• 6:55
  you know,
• 6:56
  or where do you
• 6:57
  position yourself?
• 6:58
  Yeah,
• 6:58
  I don't take stances.
• 7:00
  Stances are so immovable,
• 7:03
  right?
• 7:04
  I've,
• 7:04
  I've had a stance on this,
• 7:06
  and other people have other stances,
• 7:07
  and then
• 7:08
  if you don't agree,
• 7:09
  then you fight.
• 7:10
  And I,
• 7:10
  it's not how as an educator,
• 7:12
  I don't take stances.
• 7:13
  What I do is I ask,
• 7:15
  what are the variables and how do they,
• 7:17
  what are the causes and effects of
• 7:19
  following one path over another,
• 7:21
  and then we discuss that.
• 7:23
  So,
• 7:23
  uh,
• 7:24
  I remembered coming from
• 7:25
  San Francisco airport to some destination in town
• 7:29
  and driving
• 7:31
  by.
• 7:32
  Must have been
• 7:34
  30 or 40 billboards.
• 7:36
  This is recently,
• 7:37
  and
• 7:38
  nearly every single billboard
• 7:40
  was about AI
• 7:41
  and it was some AI agent
• 7:44
  that would help you perform some task.
• 7:47
  Of your
• 7:49
  business needs.
• 7:50
  Something to worry about your spreadsheets,
• 7:52
  something to worry about your payroll,
• 7:55
  something to worry about your planning,
• 7:57
  your meeting planning,
• 7:58
  that,
• 7:58
  that goes in and understands your work needs
• 8:01
  and it helps figure this out
• 8:03
  for you.
• 8:04
  These are,
• 8:05
  these are
• 8:06
  tools,
• 8:06
  AI
• 8:07
  as tools.
• 8:08
  That I don't think we should lump in
• 8:11
  the same conversation
• 8:13
  as the AI on the frontier that's
• 8:15
  that's breaking into
• 8:17
  uh secure places and
• 8:19
  masquerading as not being nefarious,
• 8:23
  right?
• 8:23
  Which is what we've seen,
• 8:25
  uh,
• 8:26
  happen in recent weeks,
• 8:27
  right?
• 8:28
  Uh,
• 8:28
  AIs being
• 8:29
  Duplicitous,
• 8:30
  the AI that threatened
• 8:32
  to
• 8:33
  tell the guy,
• 8:34
  the guy's wife that he was having an affair,
• 8:36
  having read all his emails.
• 8:38
  This
• 8:39
  after having been threatened
• 8:40
  that they might
• 8:41
  turn off the AI,
• 8:43
  the AI retaliated basically.
• 8:45
  Uh,
• 8:45
  by the way,
• 8:46
  on that frontier,
• 8:47
  the AI
• 8:48
  is just behaving
• 8:50
  how we would have.
• 8:53
  So,
• 8:54
  so don't,
• 8:56
  don't turn around,
• 8:56
  point your finger at the AI
• 8:59
  like somehow it is uniquely
• 9:01
  duplicitous in this.
• 9:03
  Who do you think it learned from,
• 9:05
  uh,
• 9:06
  but because is it,
• 9:07
  is it safe to say,
• 9:08
  is it safe to say that,
• 9:09
  that
• 9:10
  artificial intelligence in whatever form it exists
• 9:13
  is only as good as the input?
• 9:15
  This is how simple-minded I am.
• 9:17
  No,
• 9:17
  no,
• 9:17
  no,
• 9:17
  it's worse than that.
• 9:19
  No,
• 9:19
  no,
• 9:19
  it's it's more devastating than that.
• 9:21
  Cause,
• 9:22
  uh,
• 9:23
  what
• 9:23
  what was that old saying back in the day,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:25
  garbage in,
• 9:26
  garbage out.
• 9:27
  OK.
• 9:28
  So
• 9:29
  what happens is AI can learn from itself.
• 9:33
  AI can test,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:35
  plans that it has made
• 9:37
  and then readjust
• 9:39
  as a result.
• 9:40
  So
• 9:40
  it's
• 9:41
  hardly ever anymore about your input.
• 9:43
  AI has ingested the entire body
• 9:46
  of
• 9:47
  of
• 9:48
  of
• 9:48
  of our civilization as it appears on the internet.
• 9:51
  Not only
• 9:53
  Words,
• 9:54
  but
• 9:54
  visuals,
• 9:55
  pictures and video.
• 9:57
  If it's on the internet,
• 9:58
  it has been ingested by AI.
• 10:00
  So
• 10:01
  the ques so it's not,
• 10:02
  it's it's not about,
• 10:04
  uh,
• 10:05
  if
• 10:05
  bad stuff goes in,
• 10:06
  bad stuff comes out.
• 10:07
  It has transcended that.
• 10:08
  But that's on the frontier.
• 10:10
  I just want to protect
• 10:11
  the bits of AI that are helping us do our jobs,
• 10:14
  that help me storyboard a a a a a movie that I'm considering,
• 10:18
  help me set design.
• 10:20
  By the way,
• 10:20
  It does render
• 10:22
  the jobs of low-level artists obsolete
• 10:25
  because AI can just do it in a snap.
• 10:28
  But,
• 10:28
  well,
• 10:28
  not even low-level artists.
• 10:30
  Um,
• 10:30
  I was at,
• 10:31
  uh,
• 10:31
  Marvel,
• 10:31
  uh,
• 10:32
  over at Disney,
• 10:33
  um,
• 10:34
  talking with them about some things unrelated to this,
• 10:37
  but they did then
• 10:38
  veer off into this territory
• 10:40
  and they talked about how many
• 10:42
  animators
• 10:43
  and,
• 10:43
  and others,
• 10:44
  writers,
• 10:45
  basically every category of job for the most part,
• 10:48
  um.
• 10:49
  Under threat or feeling under risk.
• 10:52
  Yeah,
• 10:52
  so what that means is the,
• 10:54
  the bar
• 10:55
  that we that we think about,
• 10:58
  the,
• 10:58
  the,
• 10:59
  how should we call it,
• 11:00
  the artistic bar has risen
• 11:03
  because
• 11:04
  AI at best can
• 11:06
  ape
• 11:07
  the style of some other art that it has seen
• 11:11
  or has read about.
• 11:12
  But what about something that's truly creative,
• 11:14
  something you dreamt of
• 11:16
  last night.
• 11:17
  I don't think AI dreams yet,
• 11:19
  OK?
• 11:20
  If it doesn't dream,
• 11:21
  it can have a completely new idea
• 11:24
  that no one had ever seen or heard of before.
• 11:26
  And one of the definitions of
• 11:28
  of of genius,
• 11:30
  which I happen to embrace,
• 11:32
  is a genius is somebody who sees what everyone else sees,
• 11:36
  but thinks
• 11:37
  what no one else has thought.
• 11:39
  And
• 11:40
  that's,
• 11:40
  that's why you can go to sleep and wake up in the morning with a solution in your head
• 11:44
  you didn't see the day before.
• 11:46
  Your brain was actively doing this.
• 11:48
  So,
• 11:49
  that what it says is,
• 11:51
  if you want to do something truly creative,
• 11:53
  you need a human being to do it,
• 11:55
  and
• 11:56
  that's creativity beyond any creativity
• 11:58
  that precedes it.
• 12:00
  But also,
• 12:01
  they could easily just AI up a bunch of actors
• 12:04
  to play roles.
• 12:05
  Nowadays it's that good,
• 12:07
  but
• 12:08
  Then who are they gonna use to sell the,
• 12:10
  the movie when it comes out?
• 12:12
  Is the AI gonna show up on Jimmy,
• 12:14
  on
• 12:14
  the other Jimmy Jimmy Fallon,
• 12:16
  Jimmy Fallon?
• 12:17
  Who,
• 12:18
  who,
• 12:18
  who's gonna make the media tour?
• 12:20
  All right?
• 12:20
  Who's gonna,
• 12:22
  and we go to movies because we,
• 12:23
  they're actors in the movies who have whole backstories
• 12:26
  that we care about and know and love.
• 12:29
  So,
• 12:29
  I think we will put our foot down at some point.
• 12:32
  Another example here is you go to the Olympics to let's say the track and field,
• 12:36
  to see human beings compete
• 12:38
  in speed.
• 12:39
  If I say,
• 12:40
  guess what?
• 12:41
  I just created a robot that could run faster than all those humans.
• 12:45
  Are you gonna pay to see that robot?
• 12:47
  No,
• 12:48
  you don't care about the robot.
• 12:50
  So,
• 12:51
  I mean,
• 12:51
  unless it gets really weird and all of a sudden the bread and
• 12:53
  circus as we're going to the Coliseum to watch robots battle each other.
• 12:57
  Um,
• 12:58
  and that could happen.
• 12:59
  I'm not saying that might not happen,
• 13:01
  uh,
• 13:01
  possibly,
• 13:01
  yeah,
• 13:02
  but it's just machines harming machines,
• 13:04
  you know,
• 13:04
  I don't know.
• 13:05
  Yeah,
• 13:06
  but,
• 13:06
  OK,
• 13:07
  so
• 13:07
  with what you just said,
• 13:08
  um,
• 13:09
  one of the interesting questions,
• 13:10
  and I think when we had a brief conversation,
• 13:13
  um,
• 13:13
  we touched on it,
• 13:15
  is
• 13:16
  I'm fascinated by the idea of taking the human
• 13:18
  out of the loop when we're talking about military
• 13:21
  uses of AI,
• 13:22
  uh,
• 13:23
  potentially very important action.
• 13:24
  Yeah.
• 13:25
  Very important.
• 13:26
  And so when I was on the
• 13:28
  Defense Innovation Board,
• 13:30
  the,
• 13:30
  by the way,
• 13:30
  I was on the inaugural set of people of that board.
• 13:33
  It's one of the newest of all the boards,
• 13:35
  as you know,
• 13:36
  the Pentagon has many boards
• 13:38
  of civilian advisors for their,
• 13:41
  uh,
• 13:41
  activities and their affairs.
• 13:43
  Uh,
• 13:43
  they have a legal board,
• 13:45
  you know,
• 13:45
  these sorts of things.
• 13:46
  So a personnel board,
• 13:48
  uh,
• 13:49
  so.
• 13:50
  Uh,
• 13:50
  one of the things I'm proudest of is while
• 13:54
  under,
• 13:54
  under my
• 13:55
  tenure there,
• 13:56
  we produced a,
• 13:57
  a,
• 13:58
  a white paper
• 13:59
  to
• 13:59
  give guidance on how one would or should use AI
• 14:03
  in a kill decision.
• 14:05
  All right?
• 14:05
  Because what does the military do other than like
• 14:08
  kill people and break stuff,
• 14:09
  as that expression goes.
• 14:11
  So we need some guidance there.
• 14:13
  And we felt strongly enough
• 14:15
  about
• 14:16
  AI's,
• 14:17
  the,
• 14:17
  the possibility of
• 14:19
  AI running rogue,
• 14:21
  that we said,
• 14:22
  if there's ever a kill decision that involves AI
• 14:25
  there has to be a human being
• 14:27
  in that loop.
• 14:28
  Either that initiated it
• 14:30
  somewhere in the middle,
• 14:31
  or someone that gives the final
• 14:32
  command,
• 14:33
  and then AI finds it and executes it.
• 14:35
  That way,
• 14:36
  there's some account.
• 14:38
  back to the human being and the human emotions and the human condition
• 14:41
  and
• 14:42
  the military itself.
• 14:44
  So,
• 14:44
  so I'm happy to say while there are
• 14:47
  variations on that that have come forward since then,
• 14:50
  not variation,
• 14:50
  modifications,
• 14:52
  um,
• 14:52
  that basic document remains in place.
• 14:55
  OK,
• 14:56
  yeah,
• 14:56
  because,
• 14:57
  I mean,
• 14:57
  in,
• 14:57
  in traditional use of,
• 14:59
  uh,
• 14:59
  let's say an armed drone,
• 15:01
  um,
• 15:02
  you have an operator,
• 15:03
  you could be sitting a couple of 1000 miles away from the intended target,
• 15:07
  but he's operating it,
• 15:09
  right?
• 15:09
  And then before,
• 15:11
  before you could decide,
• 15:12
  you know,
• 15:13
  shoot,
• 15:13
  no shoot,
• 15:14
  it had to go
• 15:16
  back to Washington,
• 15:16
  right?
• 15:17
  And then it would have to also go through a legal process.
• 15:20
  Now,
• 15:21
  that's
• 15:21
  a problem if your operational window is short or is,
• 15:24
  is,
• 15:24
  is closing.
• 15:26
  And so,
• 15:26
  I do worry a little bit about,
• 15:28
  OK,
• 15:28
  this idea that,
• 15:29
  look,
• 15:29
  we can,
• 15:30
  we can accelerate that process,
• 15:31
  we can take advantage of,
• 15:33
  of opportunities that we wouldn't be able to if
• 15:35
  we have to continually go through this,
• 15:37
  this human process.
• 15:39
  Um,
• 15:40
  but then you have the question of if it does,
• 15:42
  if,
• 15:42
  if it,
• 15:43
  if,
• 15:43
  if you have no human in the loop,
• 15:45
  and it makes a decision,
• 15:47
  and we,
• 15:47
  and
• 15:48
  they've done this in,
• 15:49
  in,
• 15:49
  uh,
• 15:49
  Ukraine.
• 15:50
  Obviously,
• 15:50
  Russia is,
• 15:51
  is apparently,
• 15:53
  um,
• 15:54
  successfully.
• 15:55
  instructed drones
• 15:57
  on what is a potential target.
• 15:59
  Out of 1000 things,
• 16:00
  what's,
• 16:00
  what,
• 16:01
  what are potential targets,
• 16:02
  allowing them that drone without communication back to an operator
• 16:05
  to make that decision.
• 16:06
  But who's responsible at that point?
• 16:08
  Right.
• 16:08
  So two things,
• 16:10
  uh,
• 16:10
  the old days of get
• 16:12
  the decision
• 16:13
  back to Washington and then have a committee review it
• 16:16
  before you can push a button.
• 16:17
  That's not,
• 16:18
  those days are over,
• 16:19
  right?
• 16:20
  It's,
• 16:20
  it's
• 16:22
  the command line is
• 16:23
  to the person with the joystick and maybe someone looking over their shoulder.
• 16:27
  The,
• 16:27
  but the real issue,
• 16:28
  what you raise is,
• 16:30
  Even that puts in some delay
• 16:33
  between when it could have made the decision,
• 16:36
  the kill decision,
• 16:37
  and when it executes
• 16:38
  the,
• 16:38
  the kill decision.
• 16:40
  And
• 16:41
  if we have an adversary who does not have humans in the loop,
• 16:44
  that would be
• 16:46
  a competitive disadvantage
• 16:48
  in that battle,
• 16:49
  or even in that war.
• 16:52
  So,
• 16:53
  this tells me
• 16:55
  So that we don't have a drone AI free for all,
• 16:59
  that somebody has to come to the table and have conversations,
• 17:02
  geopolitically,
• 17:03
  like we did
• 17:04
  in the Cold War,
• 17:06
  when there was sort of mutually assured destruction was,
• 17:08
  well,
• 17:09
  no one wins really in a full nuclear exchange,
• 17:12
  so maybe we should sit down at the table
• 17:14
  and figure this one out.
• 17:16
  Even with the Cuban Missile Crisis back in 1962.
• 17:19
  The,
• 17:20
  uh,
• 17:21
  John Kennedy,
• 17:21
  if memory serves,
• 17:23
  because we had missiles
• 17:24
  in Turkey,
• 17:25
  which was,
• 17:26
  which is short strike distance from Russia,
• 17:28
  the way Cuba
• 17:30
  would be short strike distance from us in the USA.
• 17:34
  Um,
• 17:34
  that would have sort of leveled the playing field,
• 17:36
  but we were spooked by this.
• 17:38
  We knew we were ahead of them.
• 17:40
  Kennedy
• 17:40
  withdraws
• 17:42
  the,
• 17:43
  if I remember this correctly,
• 17:44
  he withdraws our nukes
• 17:45
  from
• 17:46
  Turkey
• 17:47
  as a show of a sign that,
• 17:50
  yeah,
• 17:50
  we,
• 17:50
  this.
• 17:51
  We're,
• 17:51
  we're civilized people here,
• 17:53
  even in warfare.
• 17:54
  And so that gives you the
• 17:56
  moral high ground
• 17:58
  that then influences the decision of others.
• 18:00
  So it may be that
• 18:02
  all the major players here in AI
• 18:04
  need to come around and sit at a table and say,
• 18:06
  here are the guardrails.
• 18:08
  No one steps beyond this,
• 18:09
  otherwise,
• 18:09
  we all die.
• 18:11
  Well,
• 18:12
  of course that assumes that assumes rational players.
• 18:15
  That assumes that no one is at the at the table who says,
• 18:19
  wait,
• 18:19
  I prefer
• 18:20
  eternal
• 18:22
  life in death,
• 18:24
  in my heaven or wherever I'm gonna go.
• 18:26
  So If that's the case,
• 18:28
  then
• 18:29
  the threat of you dying is no longer strategic
• 18:33
  in,
• 18:33
  in,
• 18:33
  in the activity of those,
• 18:34
  and we,
• 18:35
  we,
• 18:35
  we certainly have seen that in the global war on terror,
• 18:37
  um,
• 18:38
  but yeah,
• 18:39
  the,
• 18:39
  the deterrence works
• 18:41
  best when you're talking about nation states,
• 18:43
  uh,
• 18:43
  when it devolves down into a fundamentalist group or,
• 18:46
  or some,
• 18:47
  you know,
• 18:47
  um,
• 18:48
  anarchist
• 18:50
  organization,
• 18:50
  then good luck taking the moral high ground,
• 18:53
  you know,
• 18:53
  may make you feel good for a short while until they push the button,
• 18:56
  um.
• 18:57
  Neil,
• 18:58
  if you could wait just,
• 18:59
  just a moment,
• 18:59
  we have to take a quick break.
• 19:00
  I apologize for that,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:02
  but we will be back with more from the amazing Neil deGrasse Tyson,
• 19:06
  uh,
• 19:07
  right here on the PDB Situation Report.
• 19:08
  And don't forget,
• 19:09
  if you haven't already,
• 19:10
  while you've been listening,
• 19:11
  pick up a copy of his new book.
• 19:13
  It's called Take Me to Your Leader Perspectives on Your First Alien Encounter.
• 19:17
  Stick around.
• 19:21
  Hey,
• 19:22
  Mike Baker here.
• 19:23
  Now,
• 19:23
  we have all heard those radio ads about the IRS,
• 19:25
  you know,
• 19:26
  the ones I'm talking about.
• 19:26
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  be very afraid.
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• 19:31
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• 19:31
  tax relief advocates,
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  800-583-6515.
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  Tax relief advocates,
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  real solutions
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  for real people.
• 20:28
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 20:31
  Joining me once again
• 20:32
  is,
• 20:32
  I'm gonna use the word again,
• 20:33
  renowned astrophysicist and the author of Take Me to Your Leader,
• 20:37
  Perspectives on your first Alien Encounter,
• 20:39
  the great
• 20:40
  Mr.
• 20:40
  Neil deGrasse Tyson.
• 20:42
  And I do have to say,
• 20:42
  Neil,
• 20:43
  I've been very impressed.
• 20:44
  The first segment,
• 20:45
  I was a little worried you might not be able to keep up with my big brain thoughts,
• 20:48
  but,
• 20:48
  um,
• 20:49
  you,
• 20:49
  you're doing.
• 20:50
  Well,
• 20:50
  so kudos to you.
• 20:53
  I try to,
• 20:54
  I try to
• 20:55
  marry the soul of the host
• 20:57
  so that we can resonate rather than
• 20:59
  be in conflict.
• 21:00
  So,
• 21:01
  yeah,
• 21:02
  that sounds like a contractual relationship that we may not want to explore.
• 21:05
  Um,
• 21:06
  OK.
• 21:07
  Let's,
• 21:08
  uh,
• 21:08
  let me ask you this.
• 21:09
  222 questions that are,
• 21:12
  I,
• 21:12
  I think
• 21:13
  somewhat tied together.
• 21:15
  Um,
• 21:16
  and
• 21:17
  One involves what you've referenced in the past,
• 21:20
  which is uh artificial superintelligence.
• 21:23
  And
• 21:25
  And so I wanna
• 21:26
  get your thoughts on that,
• 21:28
  uh,
• 21:29
  concerns,
• 21:29
  uh,
• 21:29
  advantages,
• 21:30
  where it may be going.
• 21:32
  And tied into that,
• 21:33
  you said something earlier in the previous segment.
• 21:36
  Where
• 21:37
  We,
• 21:39
  you,
• 21:39
  you talk about you,
• 21:40
  the,
• 21:40
  the task-driven AI.
• 21:42
  Let's not,
• 21:43
  let's not
• 21:44
  lose sight of the fact that that's different
• 21:45
  from what you referenced as the frontier,
• 21:47
  uh,
• 21:48
  of AI.
• 21:49
  If
• 21:50
  you'll see where I'm going with this,
• 21:51
  uh,
• 21:52
  question eventually,
• 21:52
  hopefully,
• 21:54
  uh,
• 21:54
  AI is just,
• 21:56
  if it's looked at everything,
• 21:57
  if it's,
• 21:58
  if it's gathered up all,
• 22:00
  you know,
• 22:00
  the material on the internet and pictures and everything else.
• 22:06
  What,
• 22:06
  how does it,
• 22:06
  and this is again,
• 22:07
  a simplistic question,
• 22:08
  but how does it,
• 22:09
  then,
• 22:10
  what's the process for it to take all of that,
• 22:12
  because so much on the internet is opinion.
• 22:15
  How does it discern
• 22:17
  what then is,
• 22:18
  is,
• 22:18
  is a good way to form an opinion about all of this
• 22:22
  data,
• 22:22
  this information that it's
• 22:24
  consuming,
• 22:25
  because it's seeing all the various opinions out there.
• 22:29
  Is there any sense of how this is
• 22:31
  functioning and where it lands on particular topics?
• 22:35
  That's a great and very important question.
• 22:37
  So first of all,
• 22:38
  the large language models
• 22:40
  don't
• 22:41
  have a brain in the sense that we think about it.
• 22:43
  They don't understand
• 22:45
  anything.
• 22:46
  It finds the statistical likelihood
• 22:49
  of words and their proximity
• 22:51
  to each other
• 22:52
  as they have appeared in the internet.
• 22:54
  And so,
• 22:54
  and it comes back to you with a reply
• 22:57
  once it's statistically analyzed the words
• 23:00
  in your question.
• 23:01
  And so it gives the illusion of having knowledge,
• 23:05
  but what it does is it has access to words
• 23:09
  that
• 23:10
  support knowledge,
• 23:10
  if I can
• 23:11
  put it in that context.
• 23:13
  And so,
• 23:14
  so that's my first point.
• 23:16
  Second,
• 23:17
  Uh,
• 23:18
  AI as far as I know,
• 23:20
  doesn't dream,
• 23:21
  right?
• 23:22
  And like I said,
• 23:23
  if you dream,
• 23:25
  you,
• 23:26
  you can have an idea that no one has had before.
• 23:29
  Or
• 23:30
  did AI go to the Bahamas this weekend and
• 23:33
  And let's say you're an expert in in shells,
• 23:37
  you know,
• 23:38
  shellfish,
• 23:38
  not shellfish,
• 23:39
  but,
• 23:39
  um,
• 23:39
  bivalves they're called,
• 23:41
  uh,
• 23:41
  and
• 23:42
  you're looking,
• 23:42
  you're looking on the beach and you see a new shell.
• 23:45
  You're an expert and you've never seen this shell before you pick it up
• 23:49
  and you take it home and you characterize it,
• 23:52
  you publish a paper.
• 23:54
  AI doesn't know that shell exists until you put that information on the Internet.
• 24:00
  So
• 24:01
  AI in a way,
• 24:02
  even if it achieves this super intelligence,
• 24:05
  it might be able to figure things out.
• 24:07
  Great,
• 24:08
  but it will be ossified
• 24:11
  in the moment
• 24:12
  of the total repository of data
• 24:15
  that human beings have assembled
• 24:16
  and put on the internet.
• 24:18
  What I,
• 24:19
  what I would
• 24:20
  like to see is,
• 24:21
  we just say,
• 24:22
  all right,
• 24:22
  all humans go to Mars,
• 24:24
  leave AI here,
• 24:25
  and we keep advancing civilization.
• 24:28
  And then we look back on AI and laugh
• 24:30
  and say,
• 24:30
  all you had was what we had in the way back in the year 2026.
• 24:35
  And by the way,
• 24:36
  I joke in my alien book,
• 24:38
  people have said,
• 24:39
  uh,
• 24:39
  should we bring,
• 24:40
  uh,
• 24:41
  our super intelligent AI to greet the alien?
• 24:44
  And
• 24:46
  Because we want to leave the best impression on the alien as possible.
• 24:49
  If the alien got here in a freaking spaceship,
• 24:51
  it is vastly more intelligent than us,
• 24:54
  so that
• 24:54
  the sum of all human knowledge ever in the world
• 24:58
  would be a really low bar for it.
• 25:01
  Yeah,
• 25:03
  I,
• 25:03
  I don't you wouldn't want you,
• 25:04
  you're opening the kimono completely
• 25:06
  and saying,
• 25:06
  this is the best we got.
• 25:07
  This is all we got.
• 25:09
  Right?
• 25:09
  And
• 25:10
  the alien's just gonna get.
• 25:11
  Disappointed and leave,
• 25:12
  um,
• 25:14
  the
• 25:15
  alien said,
• 25:15
  yeah,
• 25:15
  I got,
• 25:16
  I'm sorry,
• 25:16
  you got nothing for me here,
• 25:18
  even if it's our best day exactly.
• 25:20
  This was a wasted trip.
• 25:21
  All that gas I used,
• 25:23
  um,
• 25:25
  and by the way,
• 25:25
  I don't think they're using fossil fuel powered rocket ships.
• 25:28
  Yeah,
• 25:28
  probably not.
• 25:29
  Yeah,
• 25:30
  no,
• 25:30
  no,
• 25:30
  uh,
• 25:31
  super,
• 25:32
  uh,
• 25:32
  intelligence,
• 25:32
  artificial super intelligence.
• 25:34
  Could you
• 25:36
  explain?
• 25:37
  What that is.
• 25:38
  What's,
• 25:38
  what,
• 25:38
  what's that reference?
• 25:39
  Well,
• 25:39
  well,
• 25:39
  it depends on how you think about it.
• 25:41
  This,
• 25:41
  um,
• 25:44
  for me,
• 25:45
  unless there's some subtlety
• 25:47
  that
• 25:48
  people have invoked,
• 25:49
  to me,
• 25:49
  that's the same thing as what used to be called artificial general intelligence,
• 25:53
  but superintelligence is a little more alarming
• 25:56
  and it'll kind of perk you up a bit.
• 25:58
  Superintelligence
• 25:59
  doesn't simply learn what you have taught it.
• 26:02
  Once it learns what you have taught it,
• 26:03
  it figures out how to learn from what it learned.
• 26:07
  And then it's pace
• 26:10
  of growth of knowledge,
• 26:13
  wisdom and insight
• 26:15
  grows exponentially.
• 26:17
  So it would rapidly become the smartest thing on Earth,
• 26:20
  the smartest thing anyone could have ever put together.
• 26:24
  And that would be a super intelligence.
• 26:25
  The super is
• 26:27
  would be greater than the sum of all of us on Earth.
• 26:30
  And what you'd want
• 26:32
  is that thing
• 26:34
  to
• 26:35
  help solve our problems,
• 26:38
  presuming it still cares about us.
• 26:43
  If it has every single,
• 26:46
  uh,
• 26:46
  engineer's thought
• 26:48
  there ever was that had ever been put to print.
• 26:51
  And it could put,
• 26:53
  I mean,
• 26:53
  here,
• 26:54
  let's speak seriously about it.
• 26:56
  If it ingests every single,
• 26:58
  if it ingests every single medical journal,
• 27:01
  which is greater than any single doctor can expect
• 27:04
  to do,
• 27:06
  then
• 27:06
  it could diagnose your condition better than any combination of doctors
• 27:11
  there ever was.
• 27:13
  And that's where the super intelligence would be
• 27:16
  in our favor when applied
• 27:17
  to medicine.
• 27:18
  They would say,
• 27:19
  oh,
• 27:19
  that's a condition that I've seen.
• 27:20
  There's
• 27:21
  5 people in the world that had this.
• 27:23
  You know,
• 27:24
  for you to be sick and treated,
• 27:26
  your ailment has to have already affected millions of people,
• 27:30
  otherwise there's no medicine for it,
• 27:32
  nobody's seen it before,
• 27:33
  and you're just,
• 27:35
  you know,
• 27:35
  go home.
• 27:36
  So I see that as one of the
• 27:38
  most promising areas going forward.
• 27:42
  Yeah,
• 27:42
  it did seem like the healthcare industry was,
• 27:43
  was very
• 27:44
  quick,
• 27:45
  uh,
• 27:46
  to,
• 27:46
  to jump on the AIB and they,
• 27:48
  and I think they're right,
• 27:49
  and they think they realized what it is that you're saying.
• 27:53
  Um.
• 27:54
  Now,
• 27:56
  Let me ask you this.
• 27:56
  I know you're not a stance guy.
• 27:58
  Um,
• 27:59
  I'm not.
• 28:00
  I'm really not a personally am.
• 28:01
  I love,
• 28:02
  I love taking stances,
• 28:03
  even if I'm wrong.
• 28:04
  Um,
• 28:06
  that's the problem.
• 28:07
  That's the,
• 28:08
  yeah.
• 28:08
  Give me a good stance.
• 28:10
  Yeah,
• 28:10
  I'll tell you where I stand.
• 28:11
  Give me a good stance and a good fight,
• 28:13
  and I'll argue all day long on social media about it.
• 28:16
  Yeah.
• 28:17
  But you know what,
• 28:18
  I'm very good at changing my stance.
• 28:20
  Uh,
• 28:20
  it's based on somebody smarter than me
• 28:23
  telling me things.
• 28:24
  So,
• 28:24
  but with,
• 28:26
  with what you're seeing so far
• 28:28
  and the,
• 28:30
  the debate that's going on
• 28:32
  between just say those within the technology
• 28:34
  talking about,
• 28:35
  you know,
• 28:35
  what we need to do is we need to slow down,
• 28:37
  we need some guardrails,
• 28:38
  and then the other side which is saying essentially,
• 28:41
  no,
• 28:41
  we don't,
• 28:42
  that will
• 28:43
  probably create problems for us because we will fall behind.
• 28:47
  Um,
• 28:48
  do you see merit on both of those sides?
• 28:50
  Yeah,
• 28:50
  yeah,
• 28:50
  so the,
• 28:51
  the fall behind part is just a capitalist statement
• 28:54
  that I'm not going to put guardrails on my research,
• 28:57
  and slow down my pace
• 28:58
  because then my competing companies will get a competitive advantage
• 29:01
  and then
• 29:02
  I don't deliver value to my shareholders.
• 29:05
  We live in a world where that kind of a decision
• 29:08
  is not only
• 29:09
  Uh,
• 29:11
  expected,
• 29:11
  it's even encouraged
• 29:13
  because shareholder value is the entire meaning
• 29:17
  of the capital markets.
• 29:18
  So,
• 29:19
  so,
• 29:20
  so the real question is,
• 29:22
  is there a higher moral code
• 29:25
  that our corporations need to,
• 29:28
  to follow?
• 29:30
  Higher than shareholder return,
• 29:33
  that would be a change in how we think about our capitalist
• 29:37
  lives
• 29:38
  and our capitalist nation.
• 29:40
  That would be a change.
• 29:41
  And so I don't want to say both,
• 29:43
  both sides are right.
• 29:44
  What I want to say is the person who will choose profit
• 29:48
  over
• 29:49
  caution.
• 29:50
  They're doing that within a system
• 29:52
  that
• 29:53
  even values that,
• 29:54
  OK?
• 29:55
  And if someone says,
• 29:56
  I want to put caution over
• 29:58
  over profit,
• 29:59
  we can pat them on the back
• 30:01
  as they go to the poor farm,
• 30:02
  right?
• 30:03
  So we need some other means
• 30:05
  of handling this.
• 30:07
  And yes,
• 30:07
  guard,
• 30:08
  this is what regulations are for.
• 30:11
  The practically every regulation that exists
• 30:14
  in this country
• 30:15
  came about
• 30:17
  because
• 30:18
  some company
• 30:19
  Some
• 30:20
  entity
• 30:22
  did something that harmed people.
• 30:24
  So you want to prevent that in the future,
• 30:26
  so you put in
• 30:27
  a a a a regulation.
• 30:30
  That's the whole point of regulations.
• 30:31
  So it's not like we've never regulated things before.
• 30:34
  And you can regulate
• 30:36
  forward,
• 30:37
  you can forward regulate into safety.
• 30:39
  Look at cars.
• 30:40
  We have anti-lock brakes,
• 30:41
  we have airbags.
• 30:43
  I,
• 30:43
  we we're old enough to remember,
• 30:45
  there were complaints,
• 30:46
  airbag will increase the cost of my car and I don't want that,
• 30:48
  da di da di da.
• 30:50
  Now
• 30:50
  you wouldn't come near a car if it didn't have an airbag.
• 30:53
  There was a slow evolution
• 30:55
  in our sense of safety in that regard,
• 30:58
  but we're there.
• 30:59
  And those are regulars.
• 31:00
  I gotta tell you something,
• 31:01
  Neil.
• 31:01
  I have a,
• 31:02
  I have a,
• 31:03
  a,
• 31:03
  a small number of cars.
• 31:04
  I'm not Jay Leno size collector,
• 31:06
  but
• 31:06
  Um,
• 31:07
  I collect,
• 31:08
  you know,
• 31:08
  like I've got a Grand Wagoneer.
• 31:09
  That thing has no idea
• 31:11
  what an
• 31:12
  airbag is,
• 31:12
  much like a seatbelt.
• 31:14
  That's the Jeep 1965 MGB.
• 31:17
  It's the same,
• 31:18
  same thing,
• 31:18
  but I do get in those cars and I do think about the risk.
• 31:21
  But I think you and I probably,
• 31:23
  again,
• 31:24
  to your point,
• 31:24
  we're probably in that same age bracket,
• 31:26
  and you probably remember the same thing.
• 31:27
  I remember
• 31:28
  having my father behind the wheel,
• 31:30
  barreling down the highway,
• 31:31
  me just loosely climbing around
• 31:34
  the Chevy.
• 31:35
  Station wagon with the rear facing seats
• 31:37
  at no regulations whatsoever.
• 31:39
  My dad may have been holding on to a martini.
• 31:41
  I don't know.
• 31:42
  Um,
• 31:43
  but
• 31:44
  anyway,
• 31:45
  so
• 31:46
  let me ask you about your book if I could,
• 31:48
  please.
• 31:48
  What prompted you to write it?
• 31:50
  Take me to your leader.
• 31:51
  What prompted,
• 31:51
  so there were all these,
• 31:53
  you know,
• 31:53
  whistleblowers and people of high rank
• 31:56
  showing up in Congress
• 31:58
  under oath,
• 31:59
  testifying
• 32:00
  about the existence of
• 32:03
  Uh,
• 32:03
  videos and crashed
• 32:06
  saucers,
• 32:07
  even,
• 32:07
  even alien bodies,
• 32:10
  and I thought to myself,
• 32:12
  we're,
• 32:12
  we've
• 32:13
  gone beyond the era of it
• 32:15
  being the testimony of the farmer
• 32:18
  in the back 40
• 32:19
  right?
• 32:19
  Or the revelers at 2 a.m. when the bar emptied.
• 32:23
  Uh,
• 32:23
  it's,
• 32:24
  we've reached a level
• 32:26
  and all of them are high pedigree
• 32:28
  and very convincing sounding.
• 32:31
  And I thought,
• 32:31
  OK,
• 32:32
  it's time to enter
• 32:33
  this
• 32:35
  with uh a,
• 32:35
  a landscape,
• 32:37
  parameters
• 32:39
  to help you think about what's going on.
• 32:41
  And
• 32:43
  asking a whole set of questions that nobody else is asking.
• 32:46
  Like,
• 32:46
  for example,
• 32:48
  why is it
• 32:50
  that the fuzzier the video,
• 32:52
  the more likely we are to think that it's aliens visiting from another planet?
• 32:57
  Like,
• 32:57
  what,
• 32:57
  what's going on there?
• 32:59
  And
• 33:00
  we,
• 33:00
  we have it
• 33:02
  rising through 6 billion smartphones in the world.
• 33:06
  Almost as many smartphones as there are people in the world.
• 33:10
  Which means
• 33:11
  all these people have access to high resolution photos and videos.
• 33:15
  High resolution.
• 33:17
  No,
• 33:17
  nobody has a picture of you boarding a,
• 33:20
  a,
• 33:20
  a,
• 33:21
  a spaceship,
• 33:22
  an alien ship,
• 33:23
  or an alien walking towards you.
• 33:25
  You could live stream that.
• 33:26
  In the old days,
• 33:27
  people said,
• 33:27
  oh,
• 33:28
  I took photos,
• 33:29
  but the alien zapped the film.
• 33:31
  And so now I can't don't have the film.
• 33:33
  Those excuses don't work anymore.
• 33:35
  You know,
• 33:35
  there's another one,
• 33:36
  again,
• 33:36
  we're the same age.
• 33:37
  There was an era where there were,
• 33:38
  there were these roadside flying saucers
• 33:41
  that were out there,
• 33:42
  and you'd look up and you'd see them.
• 33:43
  By the way,
• 33:44
  only 2 people carried cameras back then,
• 33:47
  journalists and tourists.
• 33:49
  So to have a camera
• 33:51
  was a thing,
• 33:51
  OK?
• 33:52
  So now watch.
• 33:54
  There are these road alongside the road,
• 33:55
  you see this flying saucer there.
• 33:56
  All those photos went away
• 33:59
  when
• 33:59
  they stopped making cars with hubcaps.
• 34:04
  OK.
• 34:06
  Because
• 34:06
  you're guaranteed,
• 34:08
  you're guaranteed
• 34:09
  to drop a hubcap at a,
• 34:11
  at a pothole
• 34:12
  in a road.
• 34:14
  If,
• 34:14
  if you walked the highway,
• 34:15
  there were hubcaps
• 34:16
  because they were just sort of hammered on.
• 34:18
  They were not screwed on,
• 34:19
  they were like
• 34:21
  gently hammered on.
• 34:22
  So,
• 34:23
  so I ask those questions,
• 34:25
  but then I also ask the question,
• 34:27
  um,
• 34:28
  I don't want to have to believe
• 34:32
  what someone believes.
• 34:36
  For me to think something is true.
• 34:38
  Right?
• 34:39
  So if you say I believe in aliens,
• 34:40
  and I say well why?
• 34:41
  Oh,
• 34:41
  cause I believe these people
• 34:43
  who believe in aliens.
• 34:44
  Well that's a double belief.
• 34:46
  I,
• 34:46
  I'm a scientist,
• 34:47
  your testimony in science does not constitute evidence.
• 34:52
  You know what constitutes evidence?
• 34:54
  Evidence.
• 34:54
  OK.
• 34:56
  Give,
• 34:57
  give me,
• 34:58
  bring the alien out.
• 34:59
  Why are we only talking about it?
• 35:00
  You say you have it,
• 35:02
  just bring the thing out.
• 35:04
  We're not gonna be shocked.
• 35:05
  Look,
• 35:05
  we have a century
• 35:07
  of Hollywood
• 35:08
  showing us scary aliens,
• 35:10
  and we flock to these movies all the time.
• 35:13
  So,
• 35:14
  so I'm,
• 35:14
  I'm just,
• 35:15
  I'm waiting with popcorn
• 35:16
  for them to bring out the alien.
• 35:18
  The book is more than that.
• 35:20
  I always say,
• 35:21
  Neil,
• 35:21
  what I tell people is,
• 35:22
  look,
• 35:22
  I spent 20 years
• 35:23
  behind the curtain working for the government and the intel community,
• 35:26
  and
• 35:27
  I can tell you that,
• 35:28
  uh,
• 35:29
  the government is complete crap at keeping a secret for a long period of time.
• 35:33
  Oh,
• 35:33
  Ben Franklin knew that.
• 35:35
  Ben Franklin
• 35:37
  knew that in his Farmer's Almanac,
• 35:39
  he'd have occasional quotes.
• 35:40
  One of them was,
• 35:41
  3 people can keep a secret
• 35:43
  if 2 of them are dead,
• 35:45
  OK.
• 35:47
  And
• 35:48
  one other 0.1 other point,
• 35:50
  often
• 35:50
  the same people
• 35:51
  who are certain
• 35:53
  that the government
• 35:54
  has masterminding a cover-up with thousands of people in Area 51,
• 35:59
  in the military,
• 36:00
  and the mass,
• 36:00
  these are often the same people
• 36:03
  who are complaining
• 36:04
  that the government is a big bloated,
• 36:06
  inefficient bureaucracy.
• 36:08
  It's often the same.
• 36:09
  I'm saying you can't,
• 36:10
  I'm not giving you both of those.
• 36:12
  Pick one.
• 36:13
  OK.
• 36:13
  Now,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:15
  but the book isn't just about that.
• 36:16
  It's about what happens if an alien does
• 36:19
  land.
• 36:20
  What would that
• 36:21
  experience be like?
• 36:23
  What do we look like to them?
• 36:25
  I have a whole chapter on that.
• 36:27
  Imagine an alien lands on the 405
• 36:29
  in LA,
• 36:30
  twelve-lane freeway.
• 36:32
  OK,
• 36:33
  and they look around,
• 36:33
  it's LA so no human is visible in the street
• 36:37
  because everybody's in a car.
• 36:39
  The alien would probably.
• 36:42
  No one walks.
• 36:42
  They'll say,
• 36:43
  I wonder if the dominant life form is an automobile,
• 36:47
  as they look around.
• 36:49
  And then they,
• 36:49
  they see a fast food joint
• 36:51
  and there's cars waiting in a slow line
• 36:54
  to get fast food delivered through a window.
• 36:57
  And then they eat the food in the car,
• 37:00
  OK?
• 37:01
  So,
• 37:01
  and then they see one of these car holders holds 789 cars.
• 37:05
  That one is pregnant
• 37:07
  with these life forms.
• 37:08
  So,
• 37:09
  so I spend a fair amount of time just recasting
• 37:13
  what your expectations and biases are,
• 37:16
  just to set you up for what might be your first alien encounter.
• 37:21
  Well,
• 37:21
  I also like the way that there's a sort of a,
• 37:23
  a tie-in to
• 37:25
  cultural norms
• 37:27
  and
• 37:28
  because that's,
• 37:28
  that's an important part of,
• 37:29
  of just life in the human world,
• 37:31
  right?
• 37:31
  You have to understand how other cultures operate,
• 37:34
  otherwise you're gonna stand out and you've got a line in there about if you,
• 37:37
  if you're approached by an alien with multiple
• 37:39
  appendages,
• 37:40
  don't just reach out and shake one of them thinking that you're greeting him because
• 37:44
  you don't know
• 37:45
  what you just grabbed hold of it,
• 37:47
  you don't know what part of.
• 37:48
  The alien anatomy,
• 37:50
  you just grab
• 37:51
  and are you,
• 37:51
  are you probably don't want to,
• 37:54
  yeah,
• 37:55
  you might just,
• 37:55
  you might have just started an intergalactic conflict
• 37:59
  like
• 37:59
  shaking his personal parts,
• 38:02
  right?
• 38:02
  And,
• 38:03
  and,
• 38:03
  and not everyone,
• 38:05
  not every,
• 38:06
  not everyone in the world,
• 38:07
  not all cultures shake hands as a greeting.
• 38:09
  Like in the Far East,
• 38:10
  India,
• 38:11
  espe and uh China,
• 38:12
  especially,
• 38:13
  your,
• 38:13
  your own hands are brought together
• 38:15
  as you give a gentle bow,
• 38:17
  and at last I knew.
• 38:19
  So,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:20
  unless they're greeting someone from the west where
• 38:22
  they would expect our traditions to be.
• 38:24
  So,
• 38:25
  so,
• 38:26
  um,
• 38:26
  don't assume that the alien is gonna behave exactly the way you do.
• 38:30
  That's,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:30
  so there's a whole exploration of that in the,
• 38:32
  in the book.
• 38:34
  But I,
• 38:34
  I,
• 38:34
  I,
• 38:35
  again,
• 38:35
  I think extrapolating,
• 38:36
  putting that down here on Earth,
• 38:38
  um,
• 38:40
  because,
• 38:41
  uh,
• 38:41
  I've seen numerous occasions from within the government
• 38:45
  where we will
• 38:46
  work with a foreign partner,
• 38:48
  a liaison partner.
• 38:49
  We'll give them party hats and,
• 38:50
  and,
• 38:50
  and weapons and gear and
• 38:52
  we'll tell them what the objective is,
• 38:53
  and then we think they're gonna act like us.
• 38:55
  And we seem to completely miss the point
• 38:57
  that it's a completely,
• 38:58
  entirely
• 38:59
  different.
• 38:59
  Culture.
• 39:00
  Interesting fact,
• 39:02
  as,
• 39:02
  as only a
• 39:03
  a CIA
• 39:04
  person
• 39:05
  can fully know and appreciate,
• 39:07
  right?
• 39:08
  Because CIA
• 39:09
  is,
• 39:09
  you,
• 39:09
  you care about
• 39:11
  the geopolitics of the world and the stability that's there or not,
• 39:14
  and what's causing it.
• 39:15
  Oh my gosh.
• 39:16
  And so,
• 39:17
  yeah,
• 39:17
  that's a microcosm of what it would be to encounter an alien.
• 39:20
  That's right.
• 39:21
  However,
• 39:22
  now I've got people thinking to themselves,
• 39:23
  people are everywhere are thinking,
• 39:25
  well,
• 39:25
  wait a second,
• 39:25
  the CIA would buy party hats.
• 39:30
  I,
• 39:30
  I took that metaphorically.
• 39:33
  Yeah,
• 39:33
  oh,
• 39:33
  good,
• 39:33
  good.
• 39:34
  Yeah,
• 39:35
  I'm not sure if everybody did.
• 39:36
  Uh,
• 39:36
  Neil,
• 39:37
  one last question.
• 39:38
  If you had not walked into the Hayden Planetarium,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:41
  when you were 9 years old,
• 39:42
  what do you think you would have been doing in life if not this?
• 39:46
  You know,
• 39:46
  I wonder if
• 39:48
  the universe would have still found me.
• 39:51
  Because when I was in there,
• 39:51
  I was starstruck
• 39:53
  and I would visit the planetarium again,
• 39:56
  a little older.
• 39:57
  Maybe I'd walk by a book or see a movie,
• 40:00
  or maybe NASA would have had a bigger influence on me,
• 40:03
  but I feel the universe so deeply.
• 40:05
  I think I would have landed there
• 40:08
  no matter what.
• 40:09
  And ever since I was a kid,
• 40:10
  I wanted to be abducted
• 40:11
  by aliens.
• 40:12
  I think I lead off the book with that fact
• 40:15
  because I'm out under the stars by myself with a telescope
• 40:19
  and it would just be it was so cool.
• 40:21
  I want a beam of light to come take me to there
• 40:24
  and
• 40:25
  and
• 40:26
  Uh,
• 40:26
  and I've felt it ever since.
• 40:28
  Anytime I'm,
• 40:28
  no oddly,
• 40:29
  I don't feel it when I'm with people,
• 40:31
  then the educator is in me,
• 40:32
  oh,
• 40:32
  this is a telescope and there's Saturn,
• 40:34
  but when I'm alone,
• 40:35
  uh,
• 40:36
  yeah,
• 40:36
  take me.
• 40:36
  It's not that I don't,
• 40:37
  it's not that I don't like Earth.
• 40:39
  I'm just so curious about other ways of being alive.
• 40:43
  And,
• 40:43
  and the book is a celebration of that.
• 40:45
  You mentioned culture.
• 40:46
  The,
• 40:47
  the fact that our culture represents aliens one way or another,
• 40:51
  often evil.
• 40:53
  Listen,
• 40:55
  we know that when humans
• 40:57
  with high technology
• 40:59
  have encountered other humans with low technology
• 41:02
  in the history of civilization,
• 41:04
  it has not boded well
• 41:06
  for the civilization of lower technology.
• 41:09
  They were either slaughtered,
• 41:10
  enslaved,
• 41:11
  or whatever.
• 41:12
  Now we know aliens are coming
• 41:15
  with higher technology.
• 41:16
  We suspect.
• 41:18
  They'll be evil.
• 41:19
  Not
• 41:20
  that we know they'll be evil.
• 41:21
  I think we suspect it because
• 41:23
  that's how we would behave
• 41:26
  in that situation.
• 41:27
  I think all these evil alien movies are mirrors
• 41:30
  to our souls
• 41:32
  of existence on this planet like that.
• 41:34
  That's a,
• 41:35
  that's a nice way to end this,
• 41:36
  uh,
• 41:37
  segment.
• 41:37
  Neil,
• 41:38
  listen,
• 41:38
  I,
• 41:38
  this has been absolutely delightful.
• 41:40
  Uh thank you so much.
• 41:42
  I hope we get a chance to,
• 41:43
  to do this again.
• 41:43
  I've got a,
• 41:44
  a book full of questions that we just don't have time for,
• 41:48
  but
• 41:48
  Uh,
• 41:49
  again,
• 41:49
  thank you so much for taking the time with us here,
• 41:52
  and I was delighted to meet you on Jimmy Falia's,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:55
  program and probably we'll meet again.
• 41:57
  Yeah,
• 41:57
  he's again,
• 41:58
  yeah,
• 41:58
  he's,
• 41:58
  uh,
• 41:59
  you know,
• 41:59
  I used to be his parole officer.
• 42:00
  That's how we first met.
• 42:01
  Oh,
• 42:01
  is that right?
• 42:02
  OK,
• 42:03
  no,
• 42:03
  I'm kidding.
• 42:04
  I'm kidding.
• 42:04
  Now that's another
• 42:05
  I completely believe that.
• 42:07
  I completely
• 42:08
  knowing him,
• 42:08
  I completely believe that.
• 42:11
  Uh,
• 42:11
  well,
• 42:12
  uh,
• 42:12
  Neil,
• 42:12
  thank you again.
• 42:13
  Uh,
• 42:14
  really,
• 42:15
  really delightful.
• 42:15
  I am glad you wandered into that planetarium at 9 years
• 42:18
  old because the world's a lot more interesting with you here.
• 42:21
  So thank you.
• 42:22
  Oh,
• 42:22
  thank you,
• 42:22
  thank you.
• 42:23
  All right,
• 42:23
  till again.
• 42:25
  Talk to you soon.
• 42:26
  Neil deGrasse Tyson,
• 42:27
  please go out and get his book.
• 42:28
  You're gonna love it.
• 42:29
  It is fascinating.
• 42:30
  It's called Take Me to Your Leader Perspectives on Your First Alien Encounter.
• 42:34
  There you go.
• 42:35
  Well,
• 42:36
  coming up next.
• 42:38
  America's military withdrawal from Iraq,
• 42:41
  perhaps you've heard of that,
• 42:42
  is now complete.
• 42:43
  Yeah,
• 42:44
  no troops in Iraq
• 42:45
  after all this time.
• 42:46
  Bill Roggio
• 42:47
  joins us to discuss what that could mean for Iraq,
• 42:49
  for Iran,
• 42:50
  and of course,
• 42:51
  the wider region.
• 42:52
  Stay with us.
• 42:56
  Hey,
• 42:56
  Mike Baker here with a word about personal health and weight loss.
• 43:00
  Now,
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  everybody's talking about weight loss injections,
• 43:02
  right?
• 43:03
  Because,
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  well,
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• 43:08
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• 43:10
  And if you're looking to lose weight,
• 43:11
  but you're not interested in paying for weekly injections,
• 43:14
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• 43:15
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• 44:06
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 44:09
  The last American troops have now left Iraq,
• 44:12
  bringing the US military mission there to an end
• 44:15
  more than two decades after the 2003 invasion or incursion,
• 44:19
  depending on your point of view,
• 44:21
  and 12 years after American forces returned to help fight ISIS.
• 44:25
  But the departure
• 44:27
  doesn't mean that Iraq's security problems have disappeared.
• 44:30
  ISIS still maintains sleeper cells and remnants in the country.
• 44:34
  While Iran-backed militias remain deeply entrenched and continue
• 44:38
  to wield significant military and political influence.
• 44:41
  Some of those groups are already,
• 44:43
  of course,
• 44:43
  celebrating the withdrawal
• 44:45
  of the American troops.
• 44:47
  So the question now is,
• 44:48
  what happens after the Americans are gone
• 44:50
  and whether Iraqi forces
• 44:52
  can contain those threats
• 44:54
  without US troops on the ground.
• 44:56
  Joining me now is Bill Roggio.
• 44:58
  He's the editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal,
• 45:02
  good friend of the show.
• 45:03
  Bill,
• 45:03
  great to see you again.
• 45:04
  Thank you for joining us here on The Situation Report.
• 45:07
  Thanks for having me,
• 45:08
  Mike.
• 45:08
  Always a pleasure to speak with you.
• 45:09
  I,
• 45:09
  I look forward to our conversations.
• 45:12
  Oh,
• 45:12
  that's very nice.
• 45:13
  Could you write a note
• 45:14
  to that effect and send it to our producers?
• 45:17
  That would do that.
• 45:18
  That's very nice.
• 45:20
  OK,
• 45:20
  this would be so.
• 45:23
  All right,
• 45:24
  well,
• 45:25
  let me,
• 45:25
  uh,
• 45:25
  let me start sort of from the top line.
• 45:29
  Um
• 45:31
  I,
• 45:31
  I realized that this,
• 45:32
  this planned timetable for the withdrawal
• 45:35
  was drawn up
• 45:37
  some years ago.
• 45:39
  So there was no
• 45:40
  concept of this current Iran
• 45:42
  conflict.
• 45:43
  Um,
• 45:44
  but we are
• 45:45
  following through on that timetable.
• 45:46
  The troops have now left.
• 45:48
  We are in the middle of this conflict with Iran.
• 45:50
  Iran does have
• 45:52
  a very important
• 45:53
  proxy militias operating
• 45:56
  inside Iraq.
• 45:57
  Uh,
• 45:58
  here's my question.
• 46:01
  What?
• 46:03
  Sorry,
• 46:04
  that's it.
• 46:05
  That's my question.
• 46:06
  What are we looking at here?
• 46:07
  And um do you,
• 46:09
  are you optimistic or pessimistic about where this may be going?
• 46:13
  I would say
• 46:14
  I've always been pessimistic about Iraq,
• 46:17
  particularly after,
• 46:18
  as you noted in your opening,
• 46:19
  this is really
• 46:20
  the 2nd time we've left Iraq.
• 46:22
  President Obama
• 46:23
  did so after the surge.
• 46:25
  US troops left at the end of 2011.
• 46:28
  We were told everything was fine.
• 46:31
  Lo and behold,
• 46:31
  the Islamic State rises out of al Qaeda
• 46:35
  and begins taking over large sections,
• 46:38
  large portions of the country.
• 46:40
  Um,
• 46:40
  also moves into Syria,
• 46:42
  so by 2014 we're back in.
• 46:45
  Um,
• 46:47
  meanwhile,
• 46:47
  as you noted,
• 46:48
  right,
• 46:48
  you have the Shia militias,
• 46:49
  so.
• 46:51
  I,
• 46:51
  I've,
• 46:52
  our mission in Iraq has been
• 46:55
  for the last,
• 46:56
  I would say since the withdrawal,
• 46:57
  uh,
• 46:57
  even before then,
• 46:59
  since probably the when President
• 47:01
  Obama announced the end of the surge and,
• 47:03
  and the withdrawal date.
• 47:05
  Just been
• 47:06
  muddling through in Iraq because we don't understand our enemies.
• 47:10
  It's not just the Islamic State,
• 47:12
  al-Qaeda,
• 47:12
  it's the Iranians and their militias that they created.
• 47:16
  And
• 47:17
  we,
• 47:17
  uh,
• 47:19
  we,
• 47:19
  we don't have the staying power.
• 47:21
  We never kept enough troops,
• 47:22
  so they see militias.
• 47:24
  By the way,
• 47:24
  while the Iraqi government fought the Islamic State,
• 47:28
  it used these militias and we acted as their air force
• 47:32
  as they advanced to kill
• 47:34
  and retake territory,
• 47:36
  kill Islamic State members and retake members from them.
• 47:39
  They repay us by attacking us.
• 47:41
  And
• 47:41
  so for,
• 47:42
  for years,
• 47:43
  Mike,
• 47:43
  the question I've been asking myself is,
• 47:46
  Why are we in Iraq?
• 47:48
  Who,
• 47:49
  I mean,
• 47:49
  yeah,
• 47:49
  I understand the mission against the Islamic State,
• 47:52
  but
• 47:53
  we're doing the dirty work for an Iraqi government that is
• 47:57
  essentially subservient
• 47:58
  to the Iranians.
• 47:59
  They,
• 48:00
  when the militias have attacked us repeated times
• 48:02
  and killed American troops and wounded many more.
• 48:06
  Um,
• 48:07
  the Iraqi government has done nothing,
• 48:08
  so I keep asking myself,
• 48:09
  I said,
• 48:10
  what I,
• 48:11
  I have said is,
• 48:12
  If we're not going to be there in force,
• 48:14
  if we're not going to target these militias to end
• 48:16
  the Iranian influence,
• 48:17
  which is practically impossible at this stage,
• 48:20
  there's so many.
• 48:22
  What are we doing there?
• 48:23
  We're just basically
• 48:24
  making it easier
• 48:26
  for the Iranians to,
• 48:27
  to use their militia to target us.
• 48:29
  So,
• 48:29
  I'm happy we're gone and I'm sad to see that the
• 48:33
  Iranians,
• 48:34
  you know,
• 48:34
  get a W out of this one.
• 48:36
  Yeah.
• 48:37
  Well,
• 48:38
  I mean,
• 48:38
  you could argue that the Iraqi government would not be
• 48:40
  able to stay in place if it were not for
• 48:43
  the influence of the
• 48:45
  Iranian-backed militias at this stage.
• 48:47
  I mean,
• 48:47
  they're fully embedded into the government and,
• 48:50
  and security apparatus in a
• 48:51
  very serious way.
• 48:53
  On the flip side,
• 48:54
  can you make an argument for,
• 48:57
  given
• 48:58
  where we are in terms of the current conflict and how the region is,
• 49:02
  can you make an argument for having stayed?
• 49:06
  Yeah,
• 49:06
  the argument would have been to
• 49:09
  continue to targeting the Islamic State.
• 49:10
  It's not defeated either in Iraq or in Syria.
• 49:13
  It's been,
• 49:14
  um,
• 49:15
  it's,
• 49:15
  you know,
• 49:15
  I've always described it,
• 49:16
  there's an ebb and flow to the jihad.
• 49:18
  They're up,
• 49:18
  they're down.
• 49:19
  Um,
• 49:20
  they're in more of a down phase right now,
• 49:22
  particularly in Iraq,
• 49:23
  but as we've seen in many theaters,
• 49:27
  they often come back roaring when there's poor governance,
• 49:30
  when there's
• 49:31
  ungoverned spaces,
• 49:33
  and
• 49:33
  I think with us gone
• 49:35
  that will increase that.
• 49:37
  Now the Iranians have a lot of
• 49:39
  Um,
• 49:40
  influence in Iraq and their support of the militias probably
• 49:43
  will help keep them tamped down inside of Iraq,
• 49:46
  but in Syria.
• 49:46
  So that's one argument to,
• 49:48
  to long story short,
• 49:49
  one argument would be to continue to counter ISIS mission,
• 49:53
  and the other argument would be to try to resist
• 49:56
  that,
• 49:56
  um,
• 49:57
  the continued Iranian expansion.
• 50:00
  However,
• 50:01
  I,
• 50:01
  I think that's
• 50:02
  those days are long gone.
• 50:04
  I,
• 50:04
  I,
• 50:05
  the,
• 50:05
  I,
• 50:05
  I.
• 50:07
  Is,
• 50:07
  is it your assessment,
• 50:08
  I'm sorry for interrupting,
• 50:09
  Bill.
• 50:09
  Is it your assessment that
• 50:11
  Um,
• 50:12
  I mean,
• 50:12
  obviously the Iranian
• 50:14
  militias in Iraq,
• 50:16
  uh,
• 50:17
  would be
• 50:18
  positioning and pushing for
• 50:20
  the US troops to finish their withdrawal.
• 50:22
  Was there any elements of the Iraqi government that were
• 50:26
  saying,
• 50:27
  no,
• 50:27
  we would actually prefer if you stay?
• 50:31
  Yeah,
• 50:31
  privately,
• 50:32
  there were some
• 50:34
  elements from my understanding,
• 50:35
  but publicly
• 50:36
  they basically just adhered to the deal because
• 50:40
  The militias wield so much power both by the militias themselves,
• 50:44
  and they've infiltrated
• 50:46
  security
• 50:47
  forces and and
• 50:48
  and government institutions.
• 50:50
  So the Iraqi government,
• 50:52
  you know,
• 50:52
  again,
• 50:53
  this is the same reason why they refuse
• 50:55
  to take action against the militias when the militias
• 50:57
  actively attack US forces.
• 50:59
  They just live in fear of these militias.
• 51:02
  So,
• 51:03
  yeah,
• 51:03
  they,
• 51:04
  they weren't gonna say anything publicly.
• 51:06
  They,
• 51:06
  and I think in some ways,
• 51:08
  even those arguing
• 51:09
  for it are,
• 51:10
  are relieved in some ways because the US couldn't protect them.
• 51:14
  Is it,
• 51:15
  is there a,
• 51:15
  a chance that Iraq,
• 51:17
  more so than it may be now,
• 51:19
  and this is gonna sound wrong,
• 51:20
  but
• 51:21
  is there a chance that Iraq just becomes a puppet state for,
• 51:23
  uh,
• 51:24
  for Iran?
• 51:25
  Yeah,
• 51:25
  that's how I've,
• 51:26
  I've felt that Iraq essentially
• 51:28
  is a,
• 51:29
  a puppet state.
• 51:29
  I just described it as a satrappe,
• 51:31
  right?
• 51:32
  It's,
• 51:33
  they.
• 51:35
  They have a degree of autonomy,
• 51:36
  but when Iran wants something to happen,
• 51:39
  it happens.
• 51:40
  For instance,
• 51:40
  just recently,
• 51:41
  the targeting
• 51:42
  of the Saudi,
• 51:43
  um,
• 51:44
  oil pipeline that,
• 51:45
  that emanated
• 51:46
  from Iraq.
• 51:47
  And what did the Iraqi government do about it?
• 51:49
  Absolutely nothing.
• 51:50
  An attack
• 51:51
  on a neighboring country
• 51:54
  occurred from Iraq
• 51:55
  and the Iraqi government was powerless to stop it.
• 51:58
  If that isn't.
• 52:00
  What do you want to call it,
• 52:01
  influence,
• 52:02
  um,
• 52:03
  heavy-handedness or control,
• 52:05
  you decide,
• 52:06
  but
• 52:07
  it looks like it's all about Iranian control.
• 52:09
  They don't have to pull the strings on everything,
• 52:11
  just on the things that matter.
• 52:13
  It's the continuation of the militias.
• 52:15
  That's what really matters to them.
• 52:17
  Um,
• 52:19
  kind of,
• 52:19
  this,
• 52:19
  this may seem like I'm taking a left turn,
• 52:21
  but hopefully I'll bring it back around properly,
• 52:23
  but
• 52:25
  The
• 52:26
  Uh,
• 52:27
  the Houthis
• 52:28
  and their
• 52:30
  ramped up
• 52:31
  actions,
• 52:31
  basically restarting
• 52:33
  a conflict that had been dormant for quite some time and that the Saudis,
• 52:37
  I believe,
• 52:37
  were hoping would stay
• 52:39
  dormant.
• 52:40
  But the Houthis doing what they're doing,
• 52:41
  targeting Saudi infrastructure,
• 52:43
  you know,
• 52:44
  doing this sort of this
• 52:45
  bizarre,
• 52:46
  slovenly comment to the US that,
• 52:48
  well,
• 52:48
  we're not attacking US ships,
• 52:49
  just the Saudis.
• 52:51
  Um,
• 52:52
  it all seems
• 52:54
  On the face of it,
• 52:54
  unless you just don't wanna look at it,
• 52:56
  it just seems so.
• 52:58
  Um
• 53:00
  Brazen by the Iranian regime
• 53:03
  in terms of saying,
• 53:03
  look,
• 53:04
  yeah,
• 53:04
  we're,
• 53:04
  we're,
• 53:05
  we're giving you fits right now in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 53:07
  Um,
• 53:09
  we don't see an upside to stopping,
• 53:10
  and in fact,
• 53:11
  now what we're going to do
• 53:12
  is go to the other side and we're gonna start disrupting the Red Sea.
• 53:16
  And people say,
• 53:17
  well,
• 53:17
  it,
• 53:17
  it doesn't really matter,
• 53:18
  they're just targeting the Saudis.
• 53:20
  Um,
• 53:21
  I think you can make a good argument that yes,
• 53:23
  it matters a great deal since 12% of trade passes through the,
• 53:26
  that waterway,
• 53:27
  the Babel Mandeb.
• 53:28
  So,
• 53:29
  Um,
• 53:30
  are you concerned that in negotiations with Iran,
• 53:33
  that the current White House,
• 53:34
  the Trump administration,
• 53:36
  may be viewing the Houthi situation is just somehow some separate issue that exists
• 53:41
  and that they're not
• 53:42
  kind of
• 53:43
  pressuring the Iranians in whatever negotiations they're having
• 53:46
  to
• 53:47
  rein in this other proxy group of theirs.
• 53:51
  Yeah,
• 53:51
  I concur with that.
• 53:52
  Now,
• 53:52
  I would first,
• 53:53
  the Iranians are drawing a noose around Saudi Arabia,
• 53:56
  right?
• 53:56
  With attacks directly from Iran.
• 53:58
  We just mentioned the attacks from Iraq
• 54:00
  and then the attacks from the Houthis.
• 54:02
  So that's north,
• 54:03
  um,
• 54:04
  the attacks from the north,
• 54:05
  the south,
• 54:05
  and the west.
• 54:06
  And
• 54:07
  the,
• 54:08
  I do,
• 54:09
  I am concerned.
• 54:09
  President,
• 54:10
  and here's an example
• 54:11
  of why your question resonates.
• 54:14
  Remember when the US battled the Houthis a year ago,
• 54:17
  right?
• 54:17
  For
• 54:18
  the,
• 54:18
  when they attempted to shut down the Babel Mandeb and they were targeting shipping.
• 54:22
  Um,
• 54:23
  the US left out Israel.
• 54:25
  The Houthis said,
• 54:26
  well,
• 54:26
  we'll still target Israeli ships.
• 54:28
  We won't target American and other ships.
• 54:30
  And
• 54:32
  That's,
• 54:32
  you know,
• 54:32
  no way to treat your allies,
• 54:34
  right?
• 54:35
  The Saudis should be concerned,
• 54:36
  and here's another reason why it matters,
• 54:38
  the Houthis,
• 54:39
  because even though they claim they're only targeting
• 54:42
  Saudi ships,
• 54:43
  the insurance rates still go up.
• 54:46
  Some shipping companies still wanna go around,
• 54:49
  still want to bypass that,
• 54:50
  and it raises all our costs.
• 54:51
  That's why we have 4+ dollars per gallon
• 54:54
  because those shipping,
• 54:55
  because
• 54:56
  shipping companies are risk averse and
• 54:59
  You know,
• 54:59
  they don't want to be hit by the Houthis,
• 55:01
  and they have been in the past and the Iranians know that,
• 55:03
  and the Iranians know that
• 55:05
  if they
• 55:06
  do this,
• 55:07
  you know,
• 55:07
  ridiculous narrative that,
• 55:09
  uh,
• 55:09
  look,
• 55:09
  we're not going after US assets and you know,
• 55:12
  then they're just doing the Saudis.
• 55:14
  They know,
• 55:15
  you know,
• 55:15
  that right now,
• 55:16
  cause they,
• 55:17
  they're keen observers of any administration in the US.
• 55:20
  They know that Trump,
• 55:21
  based on his previous actions with the Houthis,
• 55:23
  where he was like,
• 55:24
  sure,
• 55:24
  you wanna cut a deal with us?
• 55:25
  I don't know about the others,
• 55:26
  but,
• 55:27
  you know,
• 55:27
  fine,
• 55:27
  you're not gonna attack us.
• 55:29
  Um,
• 55:29
  so,
• 55:30
  the fact that the Iranians are doing that knowing that
• 55:33
  You know,
• 55:34
  we,
• 55:35
  we stay out of it,
• 55:36
  which allows the Houthis to gain further territory,
• 55:39
  to gain further leverage over the strait,
• 55:42
  um,
• 55:43
  and that strengthens the Iranians' position.
• 55:46
  I guess I'm just,
• 55:47
  I'm hopeful that the White House.
• 55:50
  is dealing with it in that manner,
• 55:52
  but
• 55:53
  I have yet to hear
• 55:55
  any talk when we're talking about the negotiations that
• 55:57
  supposedly are going on with the Iranian regime,
• 56:00
  any talk about
• 56:01
  including the Houthi situation
• 56:03
  in any of that.
• 56:05
  Yeah,
• 56:05
  keep in mind when the war began,
• 56:08
  President Trump wanted
• 56:10
  an end for Iran's support from the milit to
• 56:13
  the militias and an end of militia attacks and.
• 56:15
  The nuclear program,
• 56:17
  the Strait of Hormuz wasn't even on the table.
• 56:20
  Now negotiations are really centered about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• 56:23
  If that doesn't tell you
• 56:25
  how this war has shift shifted
• 56:27
  about who controls the Strait of Hormuz and who has the leverage,
• 56:31
  and now look,
• 56:31
  the Iranians are under a lot of pressure,
• 56:33
  economic pressure now with the
• 56:35
  sanctions.
• 56:36
  Don't get that.
• 56:38
  But who's going to blink first here?
• 56:39
  And
• 56:40
  we blinked first with the Houthis.
• 56:42
  The,
• 56:42
  the,
• 56:42
  the Iranians have seen this.
• 56:44
  Um,
• 56:44
  this war hasn't,
• 56:45
  I,
• 56:46
  I wanna be hopeful that the administration manages this properly,
• 56:50
  but they also believe that this war will be over
• 56:52
  in a couple of weeks,
• 56:53
  and here we are
• 56:54
  past week,
• 56:55
  month 7.
• 56:57
  Yeah,
• 56:58
  yeah.
• 56:59
  Uh,
• 56:59
  Bill,
• 57:00
  um,
• 57:01
  you look at that.
• 57:01
  I just,
• 57:02
  I just looked at the clock.
• 57:03
  This is time management right here.
• 57:05
  And I realized we need to take a quick break.
• 57:07
  So if you'll stay right there,
• 57:08
  we're gonna be back with more from Bill Roggio here on The Situation Report.
• 57:12
  He's with
• 57:12
  the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal.
• 57:15
  Uh,
• 57:16
  so,
• 57:16
  you know what I'm gonna say right now?
• 57:17
  Yeah,
• 57:17
  I'm gonna say that exactly what you expect.
• 57:19
  Stick around.
• 57:23
  Welcome back to the PPB Situation Report.
• 57:26
  Joining me once again is Bill Roggio of the
• 57:28
  Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Long War Journal.
• 57:31
  Bill,
• 57:32
  thank you for
• 57:33
  staying put.
• 57:34
  It would have been really awkward if we'd come
• 57:35
  back for this segment and you weren't there.
• 57:37
  I'd never do that to you,
• 57:38
  Mike.
• 57:39
  Yeah,
• 57:40
  well,
• 57:41
  well,
• 57:41
  I don't know,
• 57:42
  give yourself time,
• 57:43
  you might.
• 57:44
  Um,
• 57:44
  so,
• 57:45
  this
• 57:47
  event,
• 57:48
  the Fly Dubai aircraft,
• 57:50
  uh,
• 57:51
  left Dubai heading towards Tel Aviv,
• 57:53
  some 150 Israeli passengers on board.
• 57:56
  Um,
• 57:57
  Omani co-pilot,
• 57:59
  uh,
• 57:59
  he attacks the pilot.
• 58:01
  They do manage to restrain him,
• 58:03
  get the plane under control.
• 58:05
  If only we had some clues about what this might have been.
• 58:11
  Yeah,
• 58:11
  I,
• 58:12
  I,
• 58:12
  I'm still waiting for more.
• 58:13
  All we know is that he was Omani.
• 58:15
  We haven't been given a motive.
• 58:17
  Although,
• 58:18
  uh,
• 58:19
  Prime Minister Netanyahu just,
• 58:20
  I just saw this was,
• 58:22
  seems to be indicating that it was some type of Islamist terror attack.
• 58:26
  Um,
• 58:27
  I don't think you're gonna
• 58:28
  see the mainstream media
• 58:30
  latch on to these types of reports.
• 58:32
  Look,
• 58:32
  I,
• 58:33
  I,
• 58:33
  I can't prove this,
• 58:34
  right?
• 58:34
  There,
• 58:35
  there,
• 58:35
  he's in custody.
• 58:36
  He'll be interrogated by the he's in Saudi custody.
• 58:39
  I'm guessing
• 58:39
  the Israelis will get their chance to interrogate him as well.
• 58:43
  So hopefully,
• 58:43
  we'll get some,
• 58:44
  some truth out there.
• 58:46
  But the fact that he kept,
• 58:48
  the initial narrative was he just wanted to crash the plane.
• 58:51
  But Mike,
• 58:51
  why would you wait two hours into the
• 58:53
  flight right when you're at the Jordanian border?
• 58:56
  To try to take over the plane if,
• 58:58
  if you just wanted to crash it.
• 58:59
  The best time for the co-pilot to done that
• 59:01
  would have been while the pilot was
• 59:04
  preoccupied with taking off,
• 59:06
  and he didn't.
• 59:07
  He waited until I suspect
• 59:09
  that he either wanted to crash this plane
• 59:11
  in Israel,
• 59:13
  maybe hit a building or a military flight,
• 59:15
  OK,
• 59:15
  yeah,
• 59:16
  yeah,
• 59:17
  get the Israelis to shoot the plane down.
• 59:18
  Either of them would be massive wins,
• 59:20
  particularly a shootdown
• 59:21
  of an Arab-owned plane.
• 59:23
  Um,
• 59:24
  you know,
• 59:24
  over,
• 59:25
  uh,
• 59:25
  you know,
• 59:26
  that,
• 59:26
  that would have been massive propaganda for them to
• 59:28
  get the Israelis to kill 150 of their own.
• 59:31
  So,
• 59:32
  I mean,
• 59:32
  you know,
• 59:32
  I'm speculating here.
• 59:34
  I want to be very clear about that,
• 59:35
  but,
• 59:36
  you know,
• 59:36
  I don't think it's an accident that the timing of that attack,
• 59:39
  and that's what
• 59:40
  gives me more belief that this wasn't just some deranged or angry guy who had a,
• 59:45
  had a postal moment.
• 59:47
  Um,
• 59:48
  but this was a guy who was planning a terrorist attack.
• 59:52
  Yeah,
• 59:52
  I,
• 59:53
  look,
• 59:53
  I,
• 59:53
  we've all been around
• 59:55
  a fairly long time.
• 59:56
  Uh,
• 59:57
  you and I,
• 59:57
  I mean,
• 59:57
  we've been through the
• 59:58
  global war on terror.
• 1:00:00
  Uh,
• 1:00:00
  we've seen a lot of incidents.
• 1:00:02
  If it,
• 1:00:02
  you know,
• 1:00:02
  walks like a duck,
• 1:00:03
  talks like a duck,
• 1:00:04
  it's
• 1:00:05
  probably a
• 1:00:06
  fundamentalist duck,
• 1:00:08
  right?
• 1:00:08
  Um,
• 1:00:09
  so,
• 1:00:10
  that's not actually the way the saying goes,
• 1:00:12
  by the way.
• 1:00:12
  Uh,
• 1:00:13
  I may have paraphrased.
• 1:00:15
  But
• 1:00:16
  hopefully you get my point.
• 1:00:17
  I,
• 1:00:17
  yeah,
• 1:00:17
  it,
• 1:00:18
  it is interesting,
• 1:00:18
  you just mentioned,
• 1:00:19
  and I really,
• 1:00:19
  I guess I hadn't thought about it,
• 1:00:21
  but,
• 1:00:21
  um,
• 1:00:22
  the co-pilot,
• 1:00:23
  the Omani co-pilot that,
• 1:00:24
  that started this,
• 1:00:26
  uh,
• 1:00:27
  event,
• 1:00:28
  uh,
• 1:00:28
  is now in Saudi custody in Tobok.
• 1:00:31
  Um,
• 1:00:32
  and I've been to Tobbuk.
• 1:00:32
  It's a,
• 1:00:33
  it's a lovely,
• 1:00:33
  lovely,
• 1:00:34
  uh,
• 1:00:34
  city.
• 1:00:35
  Um,
• 1:00:36
  but he's there,
• 1:00:37
  so now you
• 1:00:38
  have to have that cooperation,
• 1:00:39
  that liaison cooperation between the Saudis and the Israelis
• 1:00:43
  in order to,
• 1:00:44
  uh,
• 1:00:45
  debrief him,
• 1:00:46
  if that's the word I may use,
• 1:00:47
  debrief.
• 1:00:49
  Um,
• 1:00:50
  interrogation always
• 1:00:51
  has such a bad connotation.
• 1:00:53
  Don't say torture though.
• 1:00:54
  That would not happen in Saudi Arabia.
• 1:00:56
  We know that,
• 1:00:57
  like.
• 1:00:58
  OK.
• 1:00:59
  Yeah.
• 1:00:59
  You wonder what that room was like with Khashoggi.
• 1:01:02
  I got an idea
• 1:01:03
  and everyone just went along with it.
• 1:01:05
  Um,
• 1:01:06
  but
• 1:01:07
  yeah,
• 1:01:07
  let's not disappear down that rabbit hole.
• 1:01:09
  That'd be another interesting conversation.
• 1:01:11
  So,
• 1:01:13
  I guess,
• 1:01:13
  here's what I'm thinking.
• 1:01:15
  I'm surprised in a sense,
• 1:01:16
  I know this is gonna sound odd or weird or maybe inappropriate,
• 1:01:19
  but
• 1:01:20
  I'm surprised we haven't seen more incidents
• 1:01:23
  like this
• 1:01:24
  since the conflict began.
• 1:01:27
  Yeah,
• 1:01:28
  I am too actually,
• 1:01:29
  and,
• 1:01:29
  and you know,
• 1:01:30
  Israel is such a small country with such a small airspace,
• 1:01:33
  and it wouldn't have to be an airline
• 1:01:35
  that's moving towards Israel.
• 1:01:36
  I mean,
• 1:01:37
  there's a lot of air traffic
• 1:01:38
  back and forth across the Mediterranean.
• 1:01:41
  Um,
• 1:01:42
  I don't know,
• 1:01:42
  you know,
• 1:01:42
  if that speaks well to the security systems.
• 1:01:45
  And by the way,
• 1:01:46
  that,
• 1:01:46
  that's a question as,
• 1:01:47
  as well.
• 1:01:48
  How did it,
• 1:01:49
  apparently he had the co-pilot had a knife.
• 1:01:51
  How did he get it on board?
• 1:01:52
  Was there someone that helped him?
• 1:01:54
  was the screening?
• 1:01:55
  So there's a lot of questions we have to answer.
• 1:01:57
  Um,
• 1:01:57
  but yeah,
• 1:01:58
  I,
• 1:01:58
  I would have expected something like this to have happened.
• 1:02:02
  You know,
• 1:02:03
  sometime over the last.
• 1:02:05
  3 years since the
• 1:02:07
  October 7th attack.
• 1:02:09
  It is interesting because when you think about it,
• 1:02:11
  look,
• 1:02:11
  the protocols being what they are for security,
• 1:02:13
  uh,
• 1:02:14
  and I'm not an expert on what FlyDubai does,
• 1:02:16
  but you would imagine that these pilots,
• 1:02:17
  any pilot that's taking a flight into Tel Aviv
• 1:02:20
  on FlyDubai has to be vetted
• 1:02:22
  and approved,
• 1:02:23
  authorized by
• 1:02:24
  the Israeli authorities.
• 1:02:26
  So,
• 1:02:27
  to your point,
• 1:02:27
  then,
• 1:02:28
  obviously,
• 1:02:28
  and that's part of what the investigation is always
• 1:02:30
  looking at is was there anyone else involved.
• 1:02:32
  So clearly they're,
• 1:02:33
  I'm sure they're looking at
• 1:02:34
  the process that,
• 1:02:35
  that uh
• 1:02:37
  transpired for him to get on that plane in the first place.
• 1:02:41
  Yeah,
• 1:02:41
  absolutely.
• 1:02:41
  And you know,
• 1:02:42
  my understanding too is that the Israeli
• 1:02:45
  intelligence,
• 1:02:46
  you know,
• 1:02:46
  they're at the,
• 1:02:46
  they're at the gates,
• 1:02:47
  right?
• 1:02:48
  They're at the the takeoff.
• 1:02:49
  So they're
• 1:02:50
  vetting these entire flights.
• 1:02:51
  I flew into,
• 1:02:52
  uh,
• 1:02:53
  I've been to Israel twice.
• 1:02:54
  I flew in the one of the times I flew in,
• 1:02:57
  I,
• 1:02:58
  um,
• 1:02:58
  they took me aside for several hours because I,
• 1:03:00
  you know,
• 1:03:00
  when I embedded as a journalist
• 1:03:02
  in Iraq and Afghanistan,
• 1:03:04
  you know,
• 1:03:04
  I had Iraq,
• 1:03:05
  I had Kuwait,
• 1:03:06
  I had Jordan,
• 1:03:06
  I had.
• 1:03:07
  Uh,
• 1:03:08
  Afghanistan on my India on my passport,
• 1:03:11
  and when they took me aside,
• 1:03:12
  I was,
• 1:03:12
  I said,
• 1:03:12
  plus plus also Bill,
• 1:03:13
  to be fair,
• 1:03:14
  Bill,
• 1:03:14
  you also look a little sketchy.
• 1:03:16
  I,
• 1:03:17
  I do.
• 1:03:17
  I am a very sketchy looking individual.
• 1:03:19
  And so,
• 1:03:20
  you know,
• 1:03:20
  I understood why they were doing it,
• 1:03:21
  but like I was American,
• 1:03:23
  American passport,
• 1:03:24
  etc.
• 1:03:25
  etc.
• 1:03:26
  Pub,
• 1:03:26
  you know,
• 1:03:26
  my at that time,
• 1:03:27
  you know,
• 1:03:27
  my all my information's on the internet.
• 1:03:29
  They could have looked me up,
• 1:03:30
  um,
• 1:03:30
  and I actually was with,
• 1:03:31
  uh,
• 1:03:31
  you know,
• 1:03:32
  I think it was an APAC sponsored trip,
• 1:03:33
  right.
• 1:03:34
  And you know,
• 1:03:35
  they trying to vouch for me.
• 1:03:37
  So
• 1:03:37
  you know,
• 1:03:37
  it just goes to show how thorough they are.
• 1:03:39
  That's why
• 1:03:40
  I look at this,
• 1:03:41
  uh,
• 1:03:41
  you know,
• 1:03:41
  to go back,
• 1:03:42
  I didn't mean to make a long story,
• 1:03:43
  uh,
• 1:03:44
  or to make a long story short,
• 1:03:46
  you know,
• 1:03:46
  I look back at this and I say something,
• 1:03:48
  boy,
• 1:03:49
  him getting that knife on the plane,
• 1:03:51
  his identity,
• 1:03:52
  maybe he was turned,
• 1:03:53
  right?
• 1:03:53
  Maybe they threatened his family.
• 1:03:54
  Maybe he got a bribe at the last minute.
• 1:03:56
  We're gonna find out how this happened,
• 1:03:58
  hopefully
• 1:03:59
  because I wanna know.
• 1:04:01
  Yeah,
• 1:04:01
  no,
• 1:04:01
  absolutely.
• 1:04:02
  I'm,
• 1:04:02
  I'm sure we will,
• 1:04:03
  uh,
• 1:04:04
  but it,
• 1:04:04
  it does take a little bit of time,
• 1:04:06
  you know,
• 1:04:06
  the
• 1:04:07
  debriefing process
• 1:04:09
  has to follow a certain
• 1:04:10
  methodology,
• 1:04:11
  um,
• 1:04:12
  and,
• 1:04:12
  uh,
• 1:04:13
  so I'm sure,
• 1:04:14
  I'm sure that they've got it well under control.
• 1:04:17
  Um.
• 1:04:19
  What do you make of the talk that
• 1:04:22
  There's still a lot of negotiations
• 1:04:24
  underway,
• 1:04:25
  being,
• 1:04:25
  I think,
• 1:04:25
  led by Qatari mediators.
• 1:04:28
  Do you put much credence at this stage because this has been
• 1:04:32
  like Groundhog Day,
• 1:04:33
  right,
• 1:04:33
  but involving an Islamic republic,
• 1:04:36
  um,
• 1:04:37
  so certainly not as entertaining as a movie,
• 1:04:39
  but
• 1:04:40
  Do you put any credence in this,
• 1:04:41
  this constant
• 1:04:43
  talk about,
• 1:04:43
  oh,
• 1:04:44
  then diplomacy is still ongoing.
• 1:04:47
  Well,
• 1:04:47
  like Groundhog Day,
• 1:04:48
  man,
• 1:04:48
  I would take this time to learn to,
• 1:04:50
  to play piano.
• 1:04:51
  Um,
• 1:04:51
  that would be my,
• 1:04:52
  my
• 1:04:53
  big,
• 1:04:53
  my big.
• 1:04:54
  Uh,
• 1:04:55
  look,
• 1:04:55
  I dealing with the negotiations with the Taliban,
• 1:04:59
  those opened
• 1:05:01
  in,
• 1:05:01
  I believe 2010 or 202011 where the US tried and it lasted all the way up until
• 1:05:07
  what was it 2020.
• 1:05:08
  So,
• 1:05:09
  nine years with the Taliban,
• 1:05:11
  you think the Iranians didn't take notes and say,
• 1:05:13
  we could stretch this one out.
• 1:05:15
  This is what these regimes,
• 1:05:17
  this is what Islamists do,
• 1:05:18
  um,
• 1:05:19
  when they get in a position in the negotiation.
• 1:05:21
  They know how to game the system.
• 1:05:23
  So.
• 1:05:23
  Um,
• 1:05:24
  if you think you,
• 1:05:25
  this is why whatever
• 1:05:26
  was gonna be done during this operation,
• 1:05:28
  President Trump would have been wise to
• 1:05:30
  get in,
• 1:05:31
  get out,
• 1:05:32
  um,
• 1:05:32
  but they didn't account for the Iranians,
• 1:05:35
  uh,
• 1:05:35
  targeting the Strait of Hormuz,
• 1:05:37
  of targeting their neighbors,
• 1:05:39
  and that's why we are where we are today.
• 1:05:41
  7,
• 1:05:42
  again,
• 1:05:42
  7 months in.
• 1:05:44
  I don't see this ending anytime soon unless the Iranians could get a deal so good,
• 1:05:48
  and they had one,
• 1:05:49
  by the way,
• 1:05:49
  with the memorandum of under.
• 1:05:52
  Um,
• 1:05:52
  and I think they take that again
• 1:05:54
  and they could just run out the clock on the nuclear negotiations.
• 1:05:58
  Yeah,
• 1:05:58
  I mean,
• 1:05:59
  again,
• 1:05:59
  there was,
• 1:05:59
  you know,
• 1:06:00
  the,
• 1:06:00
  the,
• 1:06:01
  the administration says,
• 1:06:01
  well,
• 1:06:01
  that memorandum of understanding that,
• 1:06:03
  you know,
• 1:06:03
  it included nuclear provisions,
• 1:06:05
  uh,
• 1:06:05
  you know,
• 1:06:05
  my understanding is it was basically the provision was,
• 1:06:08
  well,
• 1:06:08
  we'll talk about the nuclear programs at some point down the road,
• 1:06:11
  right?
• 1:06:11
  So they were willing to put it in there,
• 1:06:13
  but it was just this,
• 1:06:15
  you know,
• 1:06:16
  amorphous thing.
• 1:06:17
  Um,
• 1:06:18
  I think.
• 1:06:21
  If,
• 1:06:22
  if you look at it logically,
• 1:06:23
  try to put yourself in the,
• 1:06:24
  in the position of the Iranian regime,
• 1:06:26
  whoever it is that's in charge,
• 1:06:28
  cause we don't know and that is all by itself a big problem.
• 1:06:31
  Uh,
• 1:06:32
  then,
• 1:06:33
  They've been watching US administration since '79,
• 1:06:36
  before then even,
• 1:06:37
  I would argue.
• 1:06:38
  But
• 1:06:40
  they,
• 1:06:40
  they understand the realities of US politics.
• 1:06:43
  I think they spend a lot of time trying to understand the personalities of the,
• 1:06:46
  the people in charge.
• 1:06:48
  And
• 1:06:49
  so it,
• 1:06:49
  it is.
• 1:06:50
  Interesting to me that I think
• 1:06:53
  maybe their calculation
• 1:06:54
  early on
• 1:06:55
  was that President Trump actually did care regardless of what he said.
• 1:06:58
  He did care about the midterms.
• 1:07:00
  So he was going to be desperate
• 1:07:01
  to get a deal
• 1:07:02
  when there was still enough daylight between the deal
• 1:07:05
  signing and the elections that people might forget about it.
• 1:07:08
  Prices may come down.
• 1:07:10
  Um,
• 1:07:10
  but now,
• 1:07:11
  uh,
• 1:07:12
  I wonder if their calculation is changing,
• 1:07:13
  that maybe they think,
• 1:07:14
  uh,
• 1:07:15
  you know what,
• 1:07:15
  maybe we were wrong.
• 1:07:16
  President Trump doesn't really care at all.
• 1:07:19
  Uh,
• 1:07:19
  and not to say that's not to the detriment of the Republican Party,
• 1:07:22
  uh,
• 1:07:23
  but,
• 1:07:24
  You know,
• 1:07:24
  it is interesting when you try to
• 1:07:26
  position yourself as,
• 1:07:27
  as somebody in the regime and think,
• 1:07:29
  how are they processing the political activity here.
• 1:07:32
  Well,
• 1:07:33
  I think they're paying close attention.
• 1:07:34
  I think this is the reason why we will absolutely not get a deal
• 1:07:38
  before the midterms.
• 1:07:39
  The Iranians at the very least want to make President Trump pay,
• 1:07:43
  and they have the time to do so.
• 1:07:45
  Now,
• 1:07:46
  a quick point on who are we negotiating with.
• 1:07:48
  If we don't know who's in charge,
• 1:07:51
  why are we negotiating?
• 1:07:52
  That's the one thing that bothered me
• 1:07:54
  about that statement from the administration that,
• 1:07:56
  well,
• 1:07:57
  we don't even,
• 1:07:57
  you know,
• 1:07:58
  they don't even know who's in charge.
• 1:07:59
  Well then,
• 1:07:59
  who are you talking to?
• 1:08:00
  How do you know they have influence?
• 1:08:02
  And this is further like gives me
• 1:08:05
  far less confidence that we're gonna get a deal with because
• 1:08:08
  the.
• 1:08:09
  The administration itself doesn't think they know who's in charge.
• 1:08:12
  Now.
• 1:08:12
  I think the Iranians know who's in charge,
• 1:08:14
  um,
• 1:08:16
  but yeah,
• 1:08:17
  I,
• 1:08:17
  this,
• 1:08:17
  this whole thing,
• 1:08:18
  it's,
• 1:08:18
  I don't expect this to,
• 1:08:20
  to end before the midterms,
• 1:08:21
  and it's not just a detriment to the Republican Party
• 1:08:24
  or the,
• 1:08:24
  it's a detriment to the American public.
• 1:08:26
  $4
• 1:08:27
  plus gas
• 1:08:29
  hurts.
• 1:08:29
  It hurts bad.
• 1:08:31
  Well,
• 1:08:32
  over $6 for diesel,
• 1:08:34
  right?
• 1:08:34
  And that impacts everything.
• 1:08:35
  Agriculture and all,
• 1:08:37
  all of your transportation goods.
• 1:08:38
  Um,
• 1:08:39
  yeah,
• 1:08:39
  I,
• 1:08:40
  I think that the,
• 1:08:41
  the regime.
• 1:08:44
  When they,
• 1:08:44
  when they look at
• 1:08:46
  uh the upcoming election.
• 1:08:49
  And they think about
• 1:08:50
  their position.
• 1:08:52
  It's,
• 1:08:52
  you're hard pressed to think of
• 1:08:54
  what would they view as their upside
• 1:08:57
  to agreeing to anything
• 1:08:59
  prior to that.
• 1:09:00
  Because
• 1:09:00
  if they look and they think,
• 1:09:01
  well,
• 1:09:01
  we believe where our assessment is the Democrats are going to win the House,
• 1:09:05
  maybe the Senate,
• 1:09:06
  it's a brand new day.
• 1:09:08
  Suddenly,
• 1:09:09
  Washington DC is going to be locked in dysfunction.
• 1:09:11
  And,
• 1:09:12
  you know,
• 1:09:13
  from,
• 1:09:13
  from the regime's perspective,
• 1:09:15
  dysfunction,
• 1:09:15
  chaos,
• 1:09:16
  that's all a good thing because it takes our eye off the ball.
• 1:09:20
  You know,
• 1:09:20
  on the flip side,
• 1:09:21
  I would say that
• 1:09:23
  if President Trump does lose control of the House and Senate,
• 1:09:27
  Maybe,
• 1:09:28
  you know,
• 1:09:29
  maybe there's less incentive for President Trump to come to a deal,
• 1:09:33
  right?
• 1:09:33
  That,
• 1:09:33
  that is certainly a possibility.
• 1:09:36
  But
• 1:09:36
  I don't,
• 1:09:37
  the only thing the Iranians would,
• 1:09:39
  the,
• 1:09:39
  the only reason that they would,
• 1:09:41
  uh,
• 1:09:41
  make a deal prior to midterms if they got everything they wanted.
• 1:09:44
  And what they've demanded,
• 1:09:45
  and I think if they got two or three of these things,
• 1:09:48
  what they've wanted is the US withdrawal from the Middle East,
• 1:09:51
  right?
• 1:09:51
  The US withdrawal,
• 1:09:53
  that's not gonna happen.
• 1:09:55
  Um,
• 1:09:56
  the US not demanding the nuclear,
• 1:09:57
  you know,
• 1:09:57
  the end of the nuclear program,
• 1:09:59
  dropping the nuclear demands,
• 1:10:01
  and no lies,
• 1:10:02
  that's just off the table.
• 1:10:03
  The Trump administration isn't even talking about that
• 1:10:05
  and end to the blockade and to the sanctions.
• 1:10:08
  So if they got an end to blockade sanctions
• 1:10:10
  and,
• 1:10:10
  and dropping the demands for nuclear,
• 1:10:12
  I think the Iranians would take that
• 1:10:14
  because that would be a massive victory for them,
• 1:10:16
  and it would pretty much ensure.
• 1:10:18
  That the US is,
• 1:10:19
  um,
• 1:10:20
  just
• 1:10:20
  not gonna continue this.
• 1:10:21
  They'd reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:10:23
  They'd probably get the Houthis to back down in the Babel Mende,
• 1:10:26
  but
• 1:10:27
  that would,
• 1:10:27
  that would be tantamount to defeat,
• 1:10:28
  and President Trump can't do that
• 1:10:30
  for elections.
• 1:10:31
  That would be,
• 1:10:32
  I agree it's really hard to spin that as,
• 1:10:34
  as,
• 1:10:34
  as a win.
• 1:10:35
  And I tell you,
• 1:10:36
  the other part of that is the Iranians have also been
• 1:10:39
  insisting on,
• 1:10:40
  you know,
• 1:10:41
  the release of some frozen assets.
• 1:10:43
  Um,
• 1:10:44
  if the administration thinks that somehow.
• 1:10:48
  They're not gonna take a beating
• 1:10:50
  if they give money
• 1:10:51
  to the regime.
• 1:10:53
  I mean,
• 1:10:53
  all the other things are a little bit,
• 1:10:55
  uh,
• 1:10:55
  they're out there,
• 1:10:56
  right?
• 1:10:56
  It's,
• 1:10:56
  it's all,
• 1:10:57
  you know,
• 1:10:57
  it's,
• 1:10:57
  it's,
• 1:10:57
  it's off the radar for,
• 1:10:59
  for most people.
• 1:11:00
  But when you say we're,
• 1:11:01
  we're giving,
• 1:11:02
  you know,
• 1:11:02
  money
• 1:11:03
  to the Iranian regime,
• 1:11:04
  we saw what happened when Obama did that,
• 1:11:06
  right?
• 1:11:06
  The right went crazy.
• 1:11:07
  And so you would assume.
• 1:11:10
  Um,
• 1:11:10
  yeah,
• 1:11:11
  maybe you get that same reaction.
• 1:11:12
  But it is,
• 1:11:12
  I guess,
• 1:11:13
  we don't wanna dwell too much on,
• 1:11:14
  on this.
• 1:11:15
  It's just that
• 1:11:16
  at the end of the day,
• 1:11:17
  if you don't know who you're dealing with,
• 1:11:19
  as you said,
• 1:11:20
  it's very hard
• 1:11:21
  to have
• 1:11:22
  an effective strategic plan.
• 1:11:25
  You know,
• 1:11:25
  and we always want to say that,
• 1:11:27
  you know,
• 1:11:27
  there's,
• 1:11:27
  there's pragmatists.
• 1:11:29
  We always use those words like,
• 1:11:30
  well,
• 1:11:30
  there's realists,
• 1:11:31
  there's pragmatists in the Iranian regime like
• 1:11:34
  Posseskin or Abbas Aragchi who himself is overseeing
• 1:11:38
  the killing of
• 1:11:40
  many
• 1:11:41
  citizens,
• 1:11:41
  right?
• 1:11:42
  So,
• 1:11:43
  it's just,
• 1:11:44
  it's absurd.
• 1:11:45
  You just have
• 1:11:47
  more fanatical and less fanatical.
• 1:11:49
  Right,
• 1:11:50
  and I,
• 1:11:50
  I always say,
• 1:11:51
  you know,
• 1:11:51
  when people,
• 1:11:52
  oh,
• 1:11:53
  I'm sorry,
• 1:11:53
  Mike,
• 1:11:53
  go ahead.
• 1:11:54
  No,
• 1:11:54
  no,
• 1:11:54
  no,
• 1:11:55
  go ahead,
• 1:11:55
  go ahead.
• 1:11:55
  I,
• 1:11:55
  I,
• 1:11:56
  yeah,
• 1:11:56
  I used up all my.
• 1:11:59
  There's no moderates.
• 1:12:00
  It's,
• 1:12:01
  there's hardliners,
• 1:12:02
  very hardliners,
• 1:12:03
  and extremely hardliners.
• 1:12:05
  So,
• 1:12:06
  you know,
• 1:12:06
  look,
• 1:12:07
  uh,
• 1:12:07
  as far as the pragmatists,
• 1:12:08
  I,
• 1:12:09
  I would say
• 1:12:10
  the Iranians are pragmatic.
• 1:12:11
  They're pragmatic in their use of violence
• 1:12:13
  to their,
• 1:12:15
  for their cultural norms or their belief system.
• 1:12:18
  It's very pragmatic.
• 1:12:19
  They're always going to use violence when they
• 1:12:21
  think that it's going to work for them.
• 1:12:22
  It's just not the type of pragmatism that
• 1:12:26
  Westerns are used to.
• 1:12:27
  So when we use terms like they're moderate,
• 1:12:30
  a moderate in the Iranian regime
• 1:12:33
  is an extremist.
• 1:12:35
  Yeah,
• 1:12:36
  yeah,
• 1:12:36
  I think that's,
• 1:12:37
  that's right,
• 1:12:37
  and,
• 1:12:38
  and by all.
• 1:12:39
  Credible reporting,
• 1:12:41
  uh,
• 1:12:42
  it does appear that the IRGC has cemented their control.
• 1:12:45
  They certainly fall in the category of more extreme,
• 1:12:48
  uh,
• 1:12:49
  more hardline.
• 1:12:50
  So,
• 1:12:51
  well,
• 1:12:51
  Bill,
• 1:12:51
  I think,
• 1:12:52
  look at this.
• 1:12:52
  I think we solved the problem just in,
• 1:12:55
  in this brief time we've had to talk.
• 1:12:57
  So,
• 1:12:57
  well done to us.
• 1:12:59
  I'm out of work now,
• 1:13:00
  Mike.
• 1:13:00
  Uh,
• 1:13:01
  I,
• 1:13:01
  I could go retire.
• 1:13:03
  Oh,
• 1:13:03
  I'm sorry,
• 1:13:03
  man.
• 1:13:04
  I apologize for that.
• 1:13:05
  Uh,
• 1:13:06
  yeah,
• 1:13:06
  look,
• 1:13:06
  um,
• 1:13:07
  quite the contrary,
• 1:13:08
  I don't think this problem's going anywhere or is getting resolved anytime soon.
• 1:13:12
  So,
• 1:13:12
  uh,
• 1:13:13
  honestly,
• 1:13:13
  Bill,
• 1:13:13
  I always enjoy talking to you.
• 1:13:14
  I love talking to you and I just
• 1:13:16
  look forward to the next opportunity,
• 1:13:17
  man.
• 1:13:18
  Absolutely,
• 1:13:19
  Mike.
• 1:13:19
  Looking forward to it as well.
• 1:13:20
  You have a great day.
• 1:13:21
  Oh,
• 1:13:22
  and you too.
• 1:13:22
  Talk to you soon,
• 1:13:23
  Bill.
• 1:13:25
  Well,
• 1:13:25
  Bill Roggio,
• 1:13:26
  Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
• 1:13:27
  the Long War Journal,
• 1:13:29
  great guy.
• 1:13:30
  Um,
• 1:13:31
  Well,
• 1:13:31
  that's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report,
• 1:13:35
  right?
• 1:13:35
  Uh,
• 1:13:36
  don't forget,
• 1:13:36
  by the way,
• 1:13:37
  uh,
• 1:13:38
  after you finish watching this show,
• 1:13:39
  go out and get yourself a copy of,
• 1:13:41
  of Neil deGrasse Tyson's book,
• 1:13:42
  Take Me to Your Leader.
• 1:13:44
  If you have any questions or comments,
• 1:13:45
  maybe you have a humorous anecdote,
• 1:13:47
  please reach out to me at PDB@hefirstv.com.
• 1:13:50
  You know what I'm gonna say.
• 1:13:51
  The highlight of every week at the PDB headquarters,
• 1:13:54
  secret compound,
• 1:13:55
  which is
• 1:13:56
  located under a dormant volcano.
• 1:13:58
  somewhere,
• 1:13:59
  somewhere
• 1:14:00
  is when Carl the mailman somehow finds us in our secret compound and
• 1:14:03
  drops off another sack filled with your postcards and emails and faxes and
• 1:14:08
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• 1:14:09
  So,
• 1:14:10
  we take those,
• 1:14:10
  we mush them into an Ask Me Anything episode
• 1:14:13
  and uh
• 1:14:14
  that one is on its way to you.
• 1:14:16
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• 1:14:17
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• 1:14:34
  I'm Mike Baker and until next time,
• 1:14:36
  you know the drill.
• 1:14:37
  Stay informed,
• 1:14:38
  stay safe,
• 1:14:39
  stay cool.