Latest / FDD Morning Brief / Turkey helps Iran fly under the radar | feat. Ahmad Sharawi

Transcript

Turkey helps Iran fly under the radar | feat. Ahmad Sharawi · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_00]: It's up for the morning too.
0:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's Monday, October 12th, the multifront war, the Middle East is now 1,101 days old.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host, Jonathan Chancellor.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Hope everyone had a stellar weekend.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the FDD morning brief where
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: heading down the home stretch here for two consequential elections.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: First comes the Israeli election, which is basically a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the first election since the October 7th attacks in 2023 and man are his opponents going after him for failing to prevent that attack.
0:44
[SPEAKER_00]: The buck stops with him of course, but he's done quite a bit of damage to Israel's enemies since the war erupted.
0:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Imagine what this all would look like if Israel had
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: had not gotten the upper hand on all seven fronts in this war.
0:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yikes, less than a week after that, elections come.
1:01
[SPEAKER_00]: The midterms here in the United States, that would appear to be a referendum on Trump, and maybe also a referendum on the war that he launched against Iran in the Middle East.
1:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Oil prices, not to mention diesel of late looms large.
1:15
[SPEAKER_00]: However, this election is also somehow about Israel.
1:19
[SPEAKER_00]: and that confuses me, scratch that.
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It makes zero sense and yet here we are.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: If you ask me, both elections can't come fast enough, they're bringing out the worst in both countries.
1:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Saudi Arabia is coming under heavy fire from the hoothees in Yemen.
1:34
[SPEAKER_00]: The psychos and sauna launched attacks on the airports in Riyad and Dhamam this weekend, not to mention a Ramco energy facilities, more than a dozen deaths and hundreds of injuries.
1:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the hoothees are just getting warmed up.
1:49
[SPEAKER_00]: A few observations here about the recent attacks from those nasty goat herders in Yemen.
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: First, the Biden administration should have never stopped providing weapons and intelligence support to the Saudis back in 2021.
2:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That decision was informed by a string of calamitous, unforced errors that the Saudis made on the battlefield.
2:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I get that the Saudis made us look bad.
2:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But how do things look now?
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeesh.
2:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe there's no looking back but we now sit at a precarious crossroads.
2:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The Saudis want us to join their fight.
2:18
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not a simple decision for Donald Trump.
2:20
[SPEAKER_00]: If we fight the Houthis, the Houthis fight back.
2:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The next thing you know, we're burning through defensive munitions again.
2:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Something tells me that's exactly what the Iranian regime wants.
2:30
[SPEAKER_00]: China and Russia too.
2:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Last observation and this only makes Trump decision that much more complicated.
2:36
[SPEAKER_00]: If we let the Saudis twist in the wind, our other Arab allies will see it.
2:41
[SPEAKER_00]: They know that if the Saudis don't get our help, the others won't get help either.
2:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Bottom line, if we can't restore order soon, the US-led regional order could unravel.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Come to think of it, that process could already be well underway.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, for your headlines, headline one, Yemen's armed forces, the ones loyal to the internationally recognized government in Southern Yemen, said they carried out 1,732 strikes, you know, more or less.
3:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Against positions held by the Houthis over the weekend, it's all part of what they are calling Operation Don of Yemen.
3:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know how they came up with that name.
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: They say that they neutralize more than 900 Houthi fighters and destroyed or damaged hundreds of military vehicles
3:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, that sounds good.
3:26
[SPEAKER_00]: If you ask me, if it's true, but for who these are like their patrons in Tehran, they are taking a lick in and they keep on ticking.
3:34
[SPEAKER_00]: They can keep firing drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia and other allies, even if their military is degraded, even if they're losing territory.
3:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And if the reports are true this morning, the Saudis are running out of missile
3:48
[SPEAKER_00]: headline two, the documentary film called Naza, which alleges all sorts of horrible things against the Israel Defense Forces, the IDF, continues to make waves this time.
3:59
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu putting the libelist movie back in the headlines.
4:03
[SPEAKER_00]: BB is now directing Israeli intelligence and law enforcement to find the Israeli soldiers who were interviewed for the film and to expose them and even to prosecute them.
4:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I got to say,
4:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't like this move.
4:15
[SPEAKER_00]: If the movie makes false charges, then deny them and move on.
4:19
[SPEAKER_00]: This move is only throwing more gasoline on the fire.
4:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Come on, baby.
4:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Are you supposed to be some kind of a media mastermind or something?
4:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like a rookie mistake.
4:29
[SPEAKER_00]: headline 3-8 Lebanese authorities actually did their job on Thursday security services arrested to his balahi's transporting half a ton of explosives from the border regions with Syria towards Bay Route.
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: 250 kilos of C4 were intercepted in that car.
4:47
[SPEAKER_00]: One of the suspects is reportedly the son of a senior hisbola official.
4:52
[SPEAKER_00]: The other one is just a rank and file member.
4:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I remind you here that the war in Lebanon against hisbola is not over.
4:58
[SPEAKER_00]: But credit where it's due.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: If the Lebanese government did this on its own, that's the goal.
5:04
[SPEAKER_00]: More please and thanks.
5:07
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, enough news, and not enough hot air from your humble host, enough headlines.
5:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It's time for my interview today with FDD's own Ahmed Charalee.
5:15
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a Jordanian born Middle East analyst.
5:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Here in DC, he covers everything from Jordan and Lebanon to Syria and even a bit of Turkey lately.
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been cranking out some good stuff.
5:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So I figured maybe you could share some of it with us.
5:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's bring him on to the show.
5:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the F-D-E-D morning brief.
5:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You repeat a fender off-man-choreau.
5:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for having me.
5:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Good to see you, and good to be tracking your work because you're doing a lot of good stuff lately.
5:47
[SPEAKER_00]: What do go around the horn and have you kind of weigh in on a bunch of files?
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're really gonna track the war around the region this morning.
5:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with that most recent piece of work that you did with our colleagues, Sinan Jidi.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You guys found evidence that the Turks were still servicing Iranian aircraft.
6:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Indefiance of Operation Economic Outcast that campaign launched by the U.S. Treasury and the White House to choke off Iranian funding around the region.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Tell us a little bit about what you found.
6:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Sure.
6:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So, of course, we under Operation Economic Outcast, there was a decision to ground all, or the US said that the countries around the world should ground all around in airplanes, with that there was a sanctioning of all of the Iranian aviation sector, which included 27 airlines.
6:41
[SPEAKER_01]: On top of those that were designated before for counter-terrorism.
6:45
[SPEAKER_01]: or under country tens of authorities.
6:47
[SPEAKER_01]: A bunch of countries complied.
6:49
[SPEAKER_01]: The United Arab Emirates stopped receiving Iranian Airlines.
6:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So the demand.
6:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But Turkey remained or remained an exception, in this case.
7:00
[SPEAKER_01]: They stopped Mahan Air, which was one of many Iranian Airlines.
7:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But they still continue to receive other Iranian Airlines until the same.
7:10
[SPEAKER_01]: So we wrote multiple pieces showcasing the number of lights that were going to Istanbul and Ankara and Izmir from Iran And those were all sanctioned airlines and they all received ground services from one specific company that only works with sanctioned airlines This company is not sanctioned by the US Treasury It exclusively works with their own airlines and sanctioned Russian airlines
7:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So we exposed that company, it's business model and I've threw open source, I found the images of this company servicing these eron and airlines after the one down period where the US said that all these planes need to be grounded.
7:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And apparently all these contracts have been signed over the past month or so, so they've been relatively recent.
8:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and this is all being done with obviously with the complicity of the Turkish government.
8:11
[SPEAKER_00]: This stuff doesn't happen at airports across Turkey without the Turks understanding this.
8:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So here's the part where I just remind our viewers and listeners worst, NATO ally ever.
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But I got to also say that it's not just the Turks.
8:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm glad that the Emirates and the Omanis and the Iraqis and others have halted this activity.
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: But hey,
8:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Why are you doing it in the first place?
8:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Pretty insane here when you think about U.S. sanctions and the lack of enforcement, we should have been doing this a long time ago.
8:43
[SPEAKER_00]: That might have prevented the crisis that we're in right now.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So okay, let's put all that aside.
8:50
[SPEAKER_00]: What is the next step here?
8:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's more to the story, right?
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: This is still happening at least to our understanding right now.
8:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's the game plan?
8:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, as you said, it's happening on a daily basis.
9:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, there were a bunch of flights that were coming in.
9:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't been stopping at all, even when reports came, that the Turks are planning on stopping or seizing planes.
9:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It turned out to be a long repayment issue, and then the plane was released, and it went back, and it's back and service now between Turkey and Iran.
9:22
[SPEAKER_01]: The Turks are trying to hide their, or these companies are being that are complicit in these ground services.
9:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember when I was writing the piece, we were able to find the contracts between these companies between the company and the airlines through the Turkish General Aviation Authority's website.
9:41
[SPEAKER_01]: As in Utah, the name and it shows up that this company has a contract with this ground
9:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you look up the company or look up their lines, nothing, nothing shows up, even though the plans are still landing.
9:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, and that just makes it look like it is just, it's the Turkish government, right?
10:02
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not the company.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the Turkish government.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: If they take it off the website and this stuff continues, even after it's been exposed.
10:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think we have a pretty clear sense of the dirt, vaguely that is going on here right now.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And it does make you wonder
10:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Whether the Turks are truly or allies, whether they truly belong in NATO, all that stuff, which, of course, we've been talking about here for 400 plus episodes here on the FDD morning grief.
10:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to stick with Turkey for a minute because, well, they're part of this new alliance, and I've talked about it, written about it, you've talked about it, written about it.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: It's called the
10:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
10:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is it's Pakistan.
10:40
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Saudi Arabia and it's Turkey.
10:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And it is nominally the Egyptians too, which we can talk about why they have or haven't joined this.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Some people call this alliance.
10:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They call it step.
10:54
[SPEAKER_00]: STEP, Saudi Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan.
10:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Some people call it past.
10:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Turkey.
11:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess it all just depends on your point of view.
11:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But you've cast doubt about the Mac of Pact.
11:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I know that recently the Pakistanis and the Turks are now vowing to engage more.
11:13
[SPEAKER_00]: They're bringing stuff to their parlaments.
11:15
[SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to, I guess, get certain measures
11:19
[SPEAKER_00]: so that they could openly engage with the hoothees or maybe the Iranians.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So in other words, what looked like a bunch of hot air and maybe just a bunch of virtue signaling, now looks like, I don't know, maybe it's a half-step closer to actual action.
11:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Are you still skeptical or do you think there's actually something happening?
11:40
[SPEAKER_01]: absolutely.
11:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I've cast out through multiple stages of the spark, whether it was the Houthi attack against Mecca or the Houthi attack against Medina.
11:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I said, if this spark was, I mean, you should look, I mean, the way it was signed and when they could all can be in the Mecca across from the cab, but this was more, I mean, yes, there was a religious or geopolitical significance to it, but they tried to just gorebon it and call it Mecca and all that.
12:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And they were criticizing the attack on the Islamic holy site.
12:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So I was expecting something more than just sending defensive or just a defensive mechanism for this pact.
12:18
[SPEAKER_01]: But most importantly, I think there are strategic reasons and political reasons that limit the involvement of countries like Pakistan and Turkey in a full fledged war against the Houthis or Iran.
12:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Be it that, as you stated, Turkey has been an enabler of their own regime for years.
12:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It wants to maintain that close relationship
12:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Pakistan on the other hand, plays as a mediator for Iran, engages with Iran continuously,
12:48
[SPEAKER_01]: significant chia minority and it amongst its population, that will rise up if Pakistan were to be involved in an offensive war against the Houthis.
13:00
[SPEAKER_01]: But my biggest doubt here is that this part was supposed to serve as a deterrence against the enemies of Turkey's Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but it has failed to do so with the Houthis.
13:12
[SPEAKER_01]: The Houthis have become more involved.
13:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, one would say that they've become more involved
13:18
[SPEAKER_01]: attacking real, attacking world facilities, attacking civilian infrastructure, because they know that there are strategic limitations to this, but they know that Turkey won't be involved in an offensive measure.
13:30
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not an idea that's open to interpretation, the Turks themselves have said that they won't be engaged in an offensive campaign against the Houthis.
13:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, to deal with the Houthis, defense on its own is not enough.
13:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there needs to be a more comprehensive strategy where Saudi Arabia or if this pact was to be implanted in a correct way, they need to be an offensive component to it, but that doesn't exist and that's why the Houthis are not deterred and that's why I cast doubt on the pact.
13:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think we all have some doubts, although I have to say they are signaling a bit more forward leaning inclination, I guess, but I guess we'll wait and see real quick the Egyptians invited didn't join is that.
14:15
[SPEAKER_00]: The US doing is basically like, hey, don't even think about it, don't get involved in this Sunni thing that could be turned against Israel, or is there something else that's going on here that has made the Egyptians less than excited about this arrangement?
14:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think the Egyptians are hedging, I think even though that the Turks and the Egyptians have, I wouldn't call it, I wouldn't say that they've reconciled their past, but I think the relationship is fractured and I don't think they trust other parties that are in the pact.
14:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I was even surprised when Saudi Arabia and Turkey joined them, given their,
14:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think back to the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi affair, right, for those that need a refresher.
15:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it was the Turks leaking all kinds of damaging information about MBS Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince who purportedly ordered the murder of this US-based writer, and it was a clear sign.
15:15
[SPEAKER_00]: that Regiptaia bear to one was going after the Saudis, of course the Turks being major patrons and the Muslim brotherhood, the Saudis being major detractors and the Muslim brotherhood, you could see where the fault lines were.
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So yes, the idea that these two countries would be in an alliance sounds fairly silly to me, but yet here we are and then the Egyptians kind of, I don't know, trying to figure out where they belong.
15:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess we'll wait and see about that one.
15:39
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, I want to ask you also, we're doing the around the horn as I threaten.
15:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's talk about a rock for a minute.
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Now during the the beginning phases of this war, we saw a lot of popular mobilization units or hashtoshabi as they're called an Arabic, these are the Shiite militias that are loyal to the Iranians.
15:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And they were firing at Israel, they were firing at U.S. bases.
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we've got this kind of interesting thing.
16:05
[SPEAKER_00]: The U.S. just picked up and left.
16:08
[SPEAKER_00]: which I get to say, I understand why we would because we don't want to put our troops in harm in the way.
16:13
[SPEAKER_00]: The other hand, it looks like we're leaving maybe under fire, which we kind of have a reputation of doing now in places like Iraq and Afghanistan in recent years.
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: But as we're doing this,
16:26
[SPEAKER_00]: The Iraqis are talking about disarming their Shiite militias.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you ask me, it looked like we were the leverage, right?
16:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you had the prime minister of Iraq came to the United States just what?
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess a month or two ago, we each with Donald Trump, they had this whole conversation about disarming the militias.
16:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And the U.S. was, I guess, supposed to be leverage, now we're not.
16:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So what's going on here?
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Did we just deprive the Iraqis of the tools that they needed in order to get this thing done?
16:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Or can they still do it?
16:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's important to note that until mid-September, the Iraqis were signaling that all militias will be disarmed by September 30th.
17:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they changed their mind and said that no, the disarmed process will begin on December 30th, when the U.S. withdraws from Iraq.
17:16
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think what's an important thing to note here is that Iraqis have been saying that or the militia, some militias have been saying that they're went into this arm.
17:26
[SPEAKER_01]: But we haven't seen a clear mechanism on what are they disarming?
17:32
[SPEAKER_01]: and giving the weapons to the Iraqi government or giving them to the PMF brigades that they belong to.
17:38
[SPEAKER_01]: According to latest reporting, some militias have reportedly disarmed and giving their weapons to the PMF, which in my opinion is not, I mean, if you're giving your weapons to the same PMF brigade that he belong to, that means you're not disarming.
17:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're putting your weapons in a storage facility and signaling to the Iraqi government or signaling to the west that you're disarming.
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: to be used later.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, PMU, PMF, they're all the same things.
18:05
[SPEAKER_00]: There's like a million acronyms for these guys.
18:07
[SPEAKER_00]: The hash, the shabby, the popular mobilization forces, the popular mobilization units, the Shiite militias.
18:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know why we have so many different names for these guys.
18:16
[SPEAKER_00]: But in any rate, yes, all very curious and I got to say it all feels like it's up in the air.
18:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And well, I think you've unpacked that for us.
18:25
[SPEAKER_00]: All right,
18:27
[SPEAKER_00]: We got Palestinian elections that had been scheduled, now they're postponed.
18:32
[SPEAKER_00]: This is, well, let me just say, this has been going on for a while now.
18:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Dating back to 2006 when Hamas won those first round of actual elections.
18:42
[SPEAKER_00]: This was prompted by George W. Bush, whose Bush doctrine, this idea of a freedom agenda, he was pushing elections on the Palestinian people in my view.
18:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And also, by the way, don't let Hamas run in your elections.
18:58
[SPEAKER_00]: That's just stupid, right?
19:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Like letting a terrorist organization take part in this without disarming them so that they can threaten everybody.
19:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And then actually have influence at the polls.
19:09
[SPEAKER_00]: That was insane.
19:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I love George W. Bush, by the way.
19:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Great president made some mistakes, so as all presidents do.
19:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So now fast forward to where we are today, and Mahmouda Boss is, well, as we say in the old country, he's an altar conqueror.
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He's like 90 plus years old.
19:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He's 20 years into a four-year term.
19:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe 21.
19:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's insane, right?
19:32
[SPEAKER_00]: This guy will not leave, and it doesn't seem like we're ever going to have elections.
19:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Why are they postpone this time?
19:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So why were they postponed?
19:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I think, I mean, they cite current conditions in Gaza and the current conditions in the West Bank in Gaza as the reason for why they were postponed.
19:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he was afraid of losing because the coalition that was rising against him, despite being quite untraditional, it included Hamad Dahlan,
20:01
[SPEAKER_01]: and Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad, but the reports that Marwan Barwati would be ahead of that list, who is Marwan Barwati is a convicted terrorist who is in Israeli presence since 2002 with firemen for correct.
20:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Al-Aqsa martyrs brigades.
20:17
[SPEAKER_00]: This was when the second into Fata broke out, he was part of the Fata faction which was supposed to be moderate.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: This was Erifat's crew, and he becomes basically
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: basically back then.
20:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got blood on his hands.
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And right now, you got a big movement within the Palestinian arena to make him a presidential candidate.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They say that he's going to be like the next Nelson Mandela except here's a thing.
20:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Nelson Mandela never murdered anybody, let alone multiple people, right?
20:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I think Abbas kind of understood that the Hlaan who has the backing of some external power, external regional powers, but what surprises me here is that the Hlaan was willing to cooperate with Hamas on this and we, I mean,
21:06
[SPEAKER_01]: They also have bad history.
21:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Just what we talked about Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the Hlaan, and Hamas fought in 2007.
21:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Hamas called the Hlaan a traitor throughout the past few years, but I think it's more of a pragmatic coalition making where it's not necessarily a coalition, but if they had won against the Abbas, then they would have been some power sharing agreement where they were all in power and out of the Abbas.
21:31
[SPEAKER_01]: But it seems like Abbas preempted that
21:36
[SPEAKER_01]: post-point direction until September 27th on the same day where he's going to hold presidential elections.
21:45
[SPEAKER_01]: But to that point, I think he won't be running this time and it will be his son Yasin Abbas running.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and well, as I've noted on this show, his son has no business being a leader.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, I'm sure actually the father really doesn't either.
22:01
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, a couple more topics I wanted to run at Razor the other day.
22:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw some strange reports the other day that, um, well, the Syrians were considering sending troops to Saudi Arabia so they can fight the Houthis and Yemen.
22:20
[SPEAKER_00]: This is, actually, it's the fastest growing army in the world by some standards, right?
22:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the Syrian military is arming up rapidly thanks to the Turks and the Russians.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's right on Israel's doorsteps, so the Israelis are nervous.
22:35
[SPEAKER_00]: But now we're hearing that, well, there may be a bunch of Syrians deployed to Yemen.
22:41
[SPEAKER_00]: How does that sound to you?
22:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you have any concerns?
22:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Sounds like a very bad idea.
22:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Why is that?
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's, let's start off with the fact that the Syrian army, as you said, growing rapidly, is composed of former jihadists, with grand jihadists, with foreign fighters, with, it's
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: It would be a very big mess if they end up in Yemen.
23:08
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like adding fuel to the fire, in this case.
23:10
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think there's a more strategic concern, or I have a more strategic concern with Syrian being involved in a more that it has.
23:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, no role in it.
23:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, there's no reason for Syria to take part in a war in Yemen.
23:24
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not been targeted by the Houthis.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: But I would mind that really doesn't matter that much for the Syrians.
23:30
[SPEAKER_01]: This will create or this will create the Sunni Shia component to this war in Yemen.
23:35
[SPEAKER_01]: It will it will paint Syria as a mercenary force for Saudi Arabia and Turkey as a Sunni force to go fight its wars or be it's basically its human father in Yemen as the as the ground forces.
23:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that will put Syria back into Iran's cross-series, especially the militias.
23:52
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a Houthi presence in Iraq.
23:53
[SPEAKER_01]: They would have a reason to attack Syria.
23:57
[SPEAKER_01]: The Iraq militias themselves will intensify their ambitions of causing instability in Syria.
24:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's not forget that Houthi drones can reach Damascus as well, and they don't have air defenses or anything to stop them.
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: He is really still care of that.
24:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, yeah.
24:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I do get a sense, though, that at the end of the day, if these forces are sent, number one, radical Sunnis targeting radical Shia, yes, you're talking about and insane sectarian war in Yemen, which is, you know, not exactly a force for stability these days.
24:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But this would be, if I read it, right, this is basically the Turks who control Syria.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: This is them sending a proxy to fight on their behalf in the spirit of the Mecca agreement.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I suppose we could maybe frame it that way, but I don't like it.
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, I don't like much of this.
24:49
[SPEAKER_00]: This war is definitely going sideways.
24:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Not that it was awesome three years ago, but man, it's getting more complicated by the day.
24:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's only going in that direction further.
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, last question before I let you go.
25:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Jordan has been a favorite target of Iran.
25:08
[SPEAKER_00]: What's going on here?
25:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you know why the attacks have stopped?
25:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you expect them to ramp back up again?
25:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Just give us your sense of what's going on.
25:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think it depends on what happens between the U.S. and Iran.
25:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if strikes were to restart in Iran, then Jordan will, I won't say it will be the exclusive target of Iranian missiles, but that's been the case in the previous few months.
25:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I think whenever the U.S. struck something in Iran, the Iranians responded with an attack on the base in central Jordan.
25:39
[SPEAKER_01]: where that hosts US troops.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think they understand that Jordan is a weak link in this in this front.
25:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They understand that this is a population that might be susceptible to Iran's ideas of removing the United States from the Middle East.
25:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen
25:59
[SPEAKER_01]: some Jordanians call on the government to remove the United States from Jordan, but I'd like to clarify on one point, without the U.S. and Jordan, there would be no air defense system to set these projectiles and missiles.
26:12
[SPEAKER_00]: They're probably being no Jordan.
26:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, let's just be honest, right?
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if it weren't for the United States and Israel, Jordan would be in deep trouble, but
26:21
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, here we are the reason why they're getting attacked right now by the Iranians or why they're likely to be attacked in the futures exactly for that reason.
26:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to keep watching that.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, you and I have a piece coming out soon in the Middle East Journal on this topic.
26:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll make sure to shoot that around.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: When I thank you, I have a job.
26:39
[SPEAKER_00]: You've been very generous with your time.
26:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for joining us again on the FTD morning brief.
26:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for having me.
26:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, folks, stick a fork in this episode.
26:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We are done.
26:53
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to stay on top of the news between now and Wednesday's episode, head on over to FDD.org for the latest from our experts.
26:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, and hey, stop rotting your brain with silly social media.
27:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Get smart with FDD's socials.
27:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And please do visit FDD.org slash invest to support our work.
27:09
[SPEAKER_00]: We sincerely appreciate each and every contribution.
27:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Catch you in a mere two days, people.
27:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The excitement is palpable.
27:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jonathan Schanzer, as always, signing off for FDD.