Latest / Financial Survival Network / AI's Job Impact and Global Conflict Risks with Lobo Tiggre #5998

Transcript

AI's Job Impact and Global Conflict Risks with Lobo Tiggre #5998 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  You know, silver and gold coinage would be an extremely useful thing to have
• 0:05
  in my direct personal physical control. So that's a simple thing to do.
• 0:10
  And guess what, if nothing happens, you still have the gold in the
• 0:13
  silver. You could still use it afterwards. So it's very different from changing
• 0:16
  your entire life and becoming a hermit in the woods, from taking a few
• 0:20
  simple precautionary steps. I'm sure it's not news to your audience. You know,
• 0:24
  a simple way of thinking of bullying is its insurance. You are listening
• 0:28
  to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't
• 0:34
  find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
• 0:40
  Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your
• 0:45
  free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Ed Welcome,
• 0:56
  you are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host.
• 1:00
  Are we lots eight? We're just about it. We are at the last
• 1:03
  week of January of the new year. Man like it seems like it just
• 1:07
  came, and here we are. We're already into February. Lomo Tigra is
• 1:11
  with us now. And a good friend of the show. His site is
• 1:18
  an independent independent speculator dot com. Highly recommend it to you. You've got
• 1:23
  a question to comment for me or Lobo should be an email Lobo. We're
• 1:26
  talking about what's happening for twenty twenty four and it seems to me there's themes
• 1:33
  are war, AI and art assets. Uh you think you think that kind
• 1:40
  of sums up what we'rering for. I think that's an excellent summary. The
• 1:45
  first and last are probably you know, fairly obvious to audience, but we
• 1:49
  need to go there. The middle one is the one that gets all the
• 1:53
  headlines AI. But I think there's a tendency amongst particularly you know, hardy
• 1:57
  types people into golden mind stocks in you know, the real world, to
• 2:01
  maybe dismiss this or I think this is something for the future or something for
• 2:06
  other people. But I actually think the AI trend is something every investor needs
• 2:12
  to think about, if not worry about, if not every every human being.
• 2:15
  And I'm not sure exactly where you want to go with this, but
• 2:17
  I think the main thing for people to really understand is as new as this
• 2:22
  is, you know, we just had chat gepto. Okay, in some
• 2:24
  ways it's not new, but this more enabled software chat GPT explodes it on
• 2:30
  the scene just last year. So it seems like, oh, well,
• 2:34
  this is this new thing, and we tend to dismiss new things as all.
• 2:37
  Well, some years in the future we make this may change things.
• 2:39
  But people did understand that even though that was just debata, that you know,
• 2:43
  that raw product got tens of thousands of people fired last year because it
• 2:49
  immediately was able to take on tasks that, you know, white collar jobs
• 2:53
  that are just no longer needed. I think was it British telecom Race,
• 2:57
  some large company or quasi statle company in the UK like fired the whole department
• 3:06
  because they could replace it with AI. And that's just the beta version.
• 3:08
  As the various developers, this isn't again the future. This isn't one of
• 3:14
  those ric roll things inevitable or limited. This is happening now. Developers are
• 3:19
  riding apps to fine tune this thing to your business, your need. You
• 3:22
  know, you're a doctor, or you're a I don't know, you're a
• 3:24
  freight forward or whatever it is. There's somebody out there working on an app
• 3:29
  to adapt this to your needs and make it even more powerful. So I'm
• 3:34
  not here to cry a gluem of doom. I actually think this will ultimately
• 3:37
  be extremely creative, in the same way the Internet itself unleashed a great deal
• 3:42
  of human creativity. You know, musicians didn't need to get a contract with
• 3:46
  one of just a couple record companies to go and where musicians could go directly
• 3:50
  to the entire world and catch on if they had the right stuff. Right,
• 3:53
  I see this as a very creative process. But as you know,
• 3:57
  as an Austrian influenced economic think, it's creative destruction. Right, We're going
• 4:02
  to get the job destruction before we get the new job creation as these you
• 4:09
  know, bots roll out. And by the way, I'm sorry if I'm
• 4:13
  going to see like I'm rating on the parade here, that's sort of my
• 4:15
  stick. But you know, blue collar jobs are not going to be exempt.
• 4:19
  We just saw headlines this week about BMW putting robots in their plants.
• 4:23
  So it's not just Elon Musk trying to show off. It's becoming sort of
• 4:28
  an everybody thing. I mean, I I don't think it's long before you
• 4:32
  go into McDonald's and the only people in there are customers and maybe a manager
• 4:36
  in the back. To come out. Every once in a while, I'll
• 4:39
  live the burger flipping bot gets stuck or something. But the point that is
• 4:44
  a big burger maker. That's this, This is this is happening now.
• 4:48
  This started last year, immediately changing the employment scenario. It's going to accelerate
• 4:55
  this year. And people talk about, oh, disruptive, We have a
• 4:59
  disruptive to technology, like that's a good thing. Like okay, maybe ultimately
• 5:02
  disruption is a good thing, but in the near term, disruption is something
• 5:08
  at the very least, investors need to look at what they're in and what
• 5:11
  might be disrupted. Hey just had a couple of thanks to that. So
• 5:16
  once upon a time, we had legions, armies of information operators where you'd
• 5:24
  call for one one to get a number, and that's gone. Internet got
• 5:29
  rid of that, and we had operators you'd call, remember you call an
• 5:32
  operator and make a collect call, or you would call an operator to you
• 5:40
  know, place a call. I mean, you know, we don't have
• 5:42
  that as people anymore, and somehow we survived. I think they've all got
• 5:46
  replaced by clerks in cell phone stores right selling yoursell them well more positively small
• 5:55
  businesses. Carrie. I remember in the in the nineties, I worked in
• 5:59
  a think tank and it was the president, you know, the head,
• 6:03
  talking head, and it was me raising the money and running the opera unit.
• 6:05
  It was just like two guys and a secretary and we ran events and
• 6:12
  operations and publications. That that little office of three people did the same thing
• 6:17
  that I'm building, like literally a building full of people. It would have
• 6:20
  taken fifty or one hundred years before. So that was, you know,
• 6:25
  the last revolution. And but that business created value where there was none before.
• 6:30
  Like it was, it was a small Utah focused think tank, and
• 6:33
  it just wouldn't have existed. It's not like we took those hundreds of jobs
• 6:38
  and got rid of them. Those jobs wouldn't have existed because nobody would have
• 6:42
  done what we did on that scale. So it created something that didn't exist
• 6:46
  before, the small local business of a type that was uneconomic. So I'm
• 6:49
  very bullish on this technology actually going forward, and we don't need to get
• 6:54
  too philosophical about you know, general artificial intelligence and whether we're headed for you
• 6:58
  know, what is it, cyberdyne and the terminator, you know, it's
• 7:01
  another conversation technology on the table. Now. It's I think it's going to
• 7:06
  be a positive, but I think the dislocation before him needs thinking about.
• 7:12
  And by the way, in the US, it's an election year. So
• 7:15
  if people start finding that they've been replaced by a robot in an election year,
• 7:17
  you know, guess who they're going to take it out on. The
• 7:20
  incumbent, the big guy that gets ten percent of everything in the country,
• 7:25
  everything we'd make in the United States, the big guy, right, So
• 7:30
  right or wrong, that's the way voters go. You know, it's it's
• 7:32
  you know, it's the guy in the White House. Everything's his fault or
• 7:35
  her fault. Yeah, well, hey, you know, remember the side
• 7:41
  on Harry Treeman's desk. The buck stops here. It still stops there,
• 7:45
  although they would prefer it did and they'd rather pass it on to someone else,
• 7:49
  but there is no one else to pass it on to. Hey,
• 7:53
  maybe it stops there if he's awake, but never mind, Well that's another
• 7:57
  story if he's actually a lot of any more. And we could have a
• 8:00
  debate about that. But my own personal experience with AI, one of the
• 8:05
  jobs I really hated doing the most was writing show notes to my numerous interviews.
• 8:09
  And you know, someday some weeks, it could be fifteen twenty interviews.
• 8:13
  Not so much anymore, but in the early days, and I actually
• 8:18
  hired a person to do it. And then I found AI tools that plug
• 8:22
  ins for Zoom and you know, it cost me one hundred and twenty bucks
• 8:28
  a year for that plug in, a fraction of what I was paying my
• 8:35
  person to do it. And the notes, I wouldn't say they're like super
• 8:39
  high quality, but they're ninety percent of the way there. And then I
• 8:43
  feeded into chat GPT. It writes a headline for me that I'll take her
• 8:48
  leave, and then it'll write a description for YouTube. I mean, a
• 8:56
  very basic, simple thing. It was personal was just a gig work or
• 9:00
  basically part timer ten twelve hours a week. But you know, our services
• 9:05
  are no longer needed. And that's just one tiny example, you know,
• 9:09
  I see it all over. I was watching a thing where that AI was
• 9:15
  actually having a conversation with somebody on the phone, like they were customer service
• 9:22
  from Tesla, and they had called this guy out to find out because he'd
• 9:26
  expressed an interest in buying a Tesla and they wanted to find out, you
• 9:31
  know, if he was a good candidate or not, because he didn't put
• 9:33
  the order through and it had a two week conversation that you could not tell
• 9:37
  Lobo was Ai. That was the shocking part. The guy did not know
• 9:41
  that he was talking to a bot. Yeah, no, it's actually again.
• 9:48
  I try to keep my my comments focused on the investment implications in the
• 9:52
  world, but it is quite interesting. And let me put just a simple
• 9:54
  idea out there. I think the touring test is flawed. It's not the
• 9:58
  definition of intelligence. The ability of a computer to fool a person into thinking
• 10:03
  that it's a person or x amount of time. That doesn't make the computer
• 10:07
  a person. You know, I just think that was it was an interesting
• 10:11
  idea at the time in the nineteen forties. You know, that made sense,
• 10:15
  like if any machine that can do that, well, wow, it
• 10:16
  would be like a person. But you know, the reality is now where
• 10:20
  we can see it. In fact, right, you can see you talk
• 10:24
  to these things long enough and you start seeing the repetitions of the you know,
• 10:26
  the formulaic approaches, and you you twig if you're paying attention that it's
• 10:31
  not a person. But that doesn't make that software in a box a person
• 10:35
  with legal rights. So there's there's a lot of at least last year,
• 10:41
  there was a lot of rule gathering about this. Oh, is Changibt alive?
• 10:45
  Does you know? Does it have human rights? Do we have a
• 10:48
  right to edit it? Right? No, it's just software. It's not
• 10:52
  alive, you know, It's it's a long way from that. It's an
• 10:54
  expert system. It's not an artificial person at this point. But I want
• 11:00
  to circle back to something you started with Carrie, and that the wars,
• 11:03
  because this is something else that makes for lots of headlines. And I'm not
• 11:07
  trying to diminish the human tragedies we're staying around the world. You know,
• 11:11
  these are serious things. That the war is war, war is bad or
• 11:13
  as hell as the saying goes. I'm not diminishing that at all. Yeah,
• 11:18
  but it's it's also the sort of thing that makes for exciting headlines that
• 11:22
  can prompt people to make decisions that may or may not be justified by the
• 11:26
  fact. And I'm remembering back in my college days when we talked about mutual
• 11:33
  assured destruction with the Soviet Union man mad policy, and I thought that was
• 11:37
  very appropriate. It's mad, like, how can you have a policy that
• 11:41
  is sures de structure that's the only thing that's certain is in structure like this
• 11:43
  is crazy, literally crazy, and they even call it that. And so
• 11:46
  I was very against the mutually assured destruction policy. And yet in hindsight,
• 11:54
  looking back on it with my long woined beard, now I have to say
• 11:58
  it worked. Right. It's not that the Soviets didn't start World War three
• 12:05
  out of the kindness and goodness of their hearts. I mean, ideologically,
• 12:09
  they were supposed to take over the world. The revolution of the proletariat was
• 12:13
  supposed to take over the entire world. That's the agenda. And you don't
• 12:18
  do it, you don't, you know, you don't just do it because
• 12:20
  you got out on the right side of the bed. They were deterred.
• 12:24
  So the relevance today when I'm trying to bring forward to the context now for
• 12:30
  your audience, is there's really scary stuff happening, and any one of these
• 12:35
  things can be World War three. You know what's happening with Israel and Hamasks
• 12:39
  if it expands, that could absolutely turn the Middle East into the crucible of
• 12:45
  World War three. What's happening with Russia and Ukraine. You know, I'm
• 12:50
  not the only one saying this. It was obvious from the beginning. You
• 12:52
  have a nuclear power engaging in a hot war on the borders of Europe.
• 12:56
  Of course, that's fraught with risk that it could blow up in a munch
• 13:00
  bigger way, like literally blow up in a much bigger way. So I'm
• 13:03
  not dismissing those but remember the mad policy and that it worked. You know,
• 13:11
  it's you can impute whatever negative, evil, vile motivations to Booten that
• 13:16
  you want. And yeah, I think he'd like to be Zara of the
• 13:20
  world I liked. I think he'd like to recreate the glory of the Soviet
• 13:24
  Union and put himself on top for life. Sure, I'm willing to believe
• 13:26
  that, But remember that mutually stirred disruption work last time. Then the missiles
• 13:31
  are still there, right, So where I'm going with this is, as
• 13:35
  for all the saber rattling and posturing, nobody really wants World War three.
• 13:39
  I think everybody, no matter how power hungry you might be, you know,
• 13:43
  describe people however you will want. Nobody wants to die at a nuclear
• 13:46
  conflagration. And you know, a scorched durus policy. If you're a megalomaniac,
• 13:52
  that's losing you don't you don't win anything. You know, maybe maybe
• 13:58
  a truly insane person like an ad changed movie who wants to destroy everything.
• 14:01
  But I don't think that's what we're looking at with Putin. I don't think
• 14:03
  that's what we're looking at with Hamas. I don't think that's what we're looking
• 14:05
  at with She and China either. None of the organizations involved in any of
• 14:11
  the conflicts or potential conflicts in the world today want to reduce the world to
• 14:16
  ashes. So I'm not saying ignore the headlines. I'm not saying that these
• 14:22
  words are not dangerous and worth keeping an eye on. I am saying,
• 14:24
  don't let yourself be stampeded by some of my esteem peers who want to sell
• 14:30
  newsletters with exciting headlines. You know, it's you know, don't don't mortgage
• 14:37
  your children's future to build a bunker in the woods in Idaho or something.
• 14:41
  You know, if you wanted a holiday retreat in the woods in Idaho,
• 14:43
  fine, but you know, don't don't let yourself get stampeded. Apply a
• 14:50
  little emotional intelligence here, and it's important to apply the most to sources you
• 14:56
  agree with. Right if you disagree with somebody, you know, the opposites
• 15:00
  are saying something. It's easy to filter the noise and the nonsense. But
• 15:03
  when there's sources that you like or trust, or are they saying things that
• 15:07
  you want to hear, those are the ones you most carefully need to you
• 15:11
  know, take a breath, look at this thing rashally so investment implications of
• 15:16
  the various wars in the world, I think actually quite simple. Do I
• 15:20
  want to run off to a bunker in Idaho? No, not yet.
• 15:24
  Do I want to old bullion? Absolutely? And by the way, silver
• 15:28
  fans who will get mad at me and call me to our silver? Do
• 15:31
  I want to own silver? Yes? I want to stack silver as well,
• 15:35
  because if things actually did get really bad, you know, silver and
• 15:39
  gold coinage would be an extremely useful thing to have in my direct personal physical
• 15:43
  control. So that's a simple thing to do. And guess what, if
• 15:48
  nothing happens, you still have the gold in the silver. You could still
• 15:50
  use it afterwards. So it's very different from changing your entire life and becoming
• 15:54
  a hermit in the woods, from taking a few simple precautionary steps. I'm
• 16:00
  sure it's not news to your audience. You know, a simple way of
• 16:03
  thinking of bullying is its insurance. And instead of whining or complaining that it
• 16:07
  hasn't gone to ten thousand dollars or whatever gold it is, you know,
• 16:11
  be glad that we don't live in a world that it's gone to tends.
• 16:15
  Right, It's still good to have insurance and be able to sleep at night.
• 16:18
  I couldn't agree with you more. And look, it's it's really a
• 16:23
  question of you know that wars are inflationary by their very nature, right,
• 16:30
  There's no question about that. So right there, it has to be polish
• 16:36
  because we've got three four wars going out at once military industrial complex. They're
• 16:41
  buying stuff, they're just writing, you know, printing up money and buying
• 16:45
  it and and you know that's just the way it works. And the other
• 16:52
  thing is underlines these wars undermine confidence in the government, right, And that
• 17:00
  is another thing that really really makes precious metals go up, the lack of
• 17:07
  confidence in the underlying system. I could wish that people had less confidence in
• 17:11
  the government. They might be more careful about what they voted for. There's
• 17:15
  a famous libertarian from Hawaii named Bill Danks who used to say that people should
• 17:22
  have to pay taxes on their birthdays and they should have to go in person
• 17:26
  to an IRS office where there would be a bunch of tables for the different
• 17:30
  government departments and programs, and you'd have to pay in person on your birthday
• 17:34
  in one dollar bills. So you go over to the Education Department and sell
• 17:38
  out one dollar bills for an hour, and then you go to the War
• 17:41
  Department and we used to call it the War department, right, and shell
• 17:45
  out your bills, you know, And after that, maybe people would think
• 17:48
  a little more carefully about what tax increases they voted for, what the programs
• 17:52
  they thought were such great ideas. Yeah, I could not agree with you.
• 17:56
  More like it's well, you know, half the country doesn't even vote
• 18:03
  for the president anymore. You know, a lot of dead people do.
• 18:08
  But but you know, there's there's something there. I remember any economics,
• 18:18
  maybe not one on one, but somewhere in there they talked about rational ignorance,
• 18:22
  and people complain about how these you know, benighted, uneducated people will
• 18:27
  spend more time choosing a VCR back in the day we chose VCRs. If
• 18:32
  the audience knows what I'm talking about, you know, Okay, so you
• 18:36
  say, spend more time choosing their new phone, let's say today, than
• 18:38
  choosing the school for their kids or researching the educational opportunities for their children.
• 18:44
  What could possibly be more important, what could possibly be more distorted? But
• 18:47
  the fact is they're already taking your tax money is to pay for the public
• 18:49
  school, and you live in a public school district that tells you where you're
• 18:52
  going to send your kids. So you have very little choice or agency in
• 18:57
  this decision, whereas your VCR or your phone is completely up to you.
• 19:02
  So it actually is rational to allocate your time resources to the decision that you
• 19:07
  can control and go later on the ones that you know you're a helpless victim
• 19:11
  of the system of So you know, I actually have some sympathy for the
• 19:18
  average joe out there. People call me arrogated, a leaders or whatever,
• 19:21
  and okay, you know, maybe I don't suffer from weak self esteem,
• 19:26
  but I have a great deal of sympathy for the average person out there.
• 19:29
  You take their agency away, put them in this inhuman system that denies their
• 19:33
  personhood and the choices they can make, and so they go on mental strike.
• 19:37
  That makes sense to me. Yeah, the ultimate rebellion, right,
• 19:41
  the ultimate rebellion. It's kind of a commentary on things that that's not your
• 19:47
  choice. But yeah, it's kind of like the AA creed up. You
• 19:52
  know, let me control the things that I can accept the things that I
• 19:56
  can't, and right me the wisdom to know the difference, and maybe they
• 20:00
  have the wisdom to know there's nothing you can do about it anyway, So
• 20:03
  let me worry about Well, now it would be which phone to buy or
• 20:08
  or what tablet to get? Right? Yeah? Yeah's we seem to keep
• 20:17
  getting phill of the sophagle. We talk about ideas of economics and plus.
• 20:19
  But there's something really important here because sometimes you look at the news and you
• 20:23
  look at what people are doing, it's like, how can people be so
• 20:26
  stupid? Like just what is wrong with you people? But at the end
• 20:30
  of the day, reality does matter, right, you know, And it's
• 20:33
  sort of like the voting machine versus weighing machine. Markets in the short term
• 20:37
  or voting machines, you get meme stocks and you know, just insanely stupid
• 20:41
  investment ideas and they get a lot of money, right, and then in
• 20:45
  the long term it's a weighing machine because reality doesn't matter, and if your
• 20:48
  meme stock was bankrupt, it doesn't matter if the price went in ten x
• 20:52
  in the market, it's still bankrupt, right, you know, So you
• 20:56
  look at them, you know, it's a tempting to look down in your
• 21:00
  nose at the dumb masses. They don't know what they're doing. They're ignorant
• 21:03
  and educated making bad choices. But in the context of reality mattering. A
• 21:07
  prime example is right now is why the Biden team And by the way,
• 21:11
  I'm not a Republican dishing on Biden. I was critical of Trump as well.
• 21:17
  I'm a libertarian. But it's interesting to me how the Biden team keeps
• 21:21
  pulling its hair out that Biden doesn't get any credit for the wonderful Bidenomics and
• 21:25
  the wonderful economic strength we're seeing, and like they don't get it. They're
• 21:30
  reading GDP reports and all these numbers massaged by their bureaucracy, and they're saying
• 21:33
  everything's great. But in the reality, you know, the average person out
• 21:38
  there is experiencing the reality. Now, very recently, the latest consumer surveys
• 21:44
  and things have shown an uptick. But until now, I think this disconnect
• 21:48
  is exactly what we're talking about. You know, the powers that be,
• 21:52
  they don't you know, rub shoulders on the street with the average jail out
• 21:56
  there, and they don't understand why the average Joe in mass is not happier
• 22:02
  with their choices. Well, guess what reality does matter? And so long
• 22:07
  term weighing machine, the wisdom of masses is a real thing. Actually,
• 22:11
  you know, sometimes it's as dumb as they seem in the short term.
• 22:14
  Over the long term there's you know, I do believe even people power as
• 22:18
  arrogant as I am, offen seen, I do think there is something to
• 22:22
  that. I totally agree with you. I could not agree with you more
• 22:26
  a Well, we are kind of done here, but appreciate you coming on
• 22:30
  as always, Lobo h make sure you go to a site Independent Speculator dot
• 22:36
  com and the show. Note the LNK is in the show that this interview
• 22:40
  on Financial Survival Network dot com. Question for Lombo myself, shoot me an
• 22:45
  email kl at Carrie Loots dot com. He we'll talk to you again soon.
• 22:49
  It's going to be an interesting year, that's for sure. That's for
• 22:52
  sure. What I'm not sure is if it will be you next time or
• 22:55
  a roadblot that replaces you. We'll see. Yeah, Well, until they
• 23:00
  can reproduce this space, we'll just have to stay on video. Zoe calls,
• 23:03
  right, all right, you take care brother, be well. Audience,
• 23:07
  thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's
• 23:11
  trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial
• 23:18
  Survival Network now more than ever,