Latest / The Fourcast / Iran war: will Trump’s Hormuz blockade backfire?

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Iran war: will Trump’s Hormuz blockade backfire? · The Fourcast

0:00
Nowhere in the world is safe from the economic disruption
0:03
that will come from this that will, first of all, hit by
0:06
energy prices and is already hitting by energy prices, but
0:08
then will impact everything that energy goes into.
0:11
Because we don't know how long this is going to last for,
0:13
because we don't know what President Trump really wants out
0:16
of it. It is very very hard to see what
0:18
the bottom is. The society resilience in the
0:21
United States is really low. We're not a good country for
0:24
problems. And with a midterm election
0:26
coming up, the president's going to be in a lot of trouble, in my
0:29
opinion, so this has to work quickly.
0:34
Hello, and a very warm welcome to the forecast.
0:36
I'm Alex Thompson in Jerusalem. Now, as you may just have heard,
0:40
Donald Trump has imposed his blockade on the economically
0:43
vital Straits of Hormuz. Or has he?
0:47
We know that since the blockade came into place, several
0:51
vessels, including one Chinese and several flight to Iran have
0:54
passed through. So how is this blockade working?
0:57
Why has he done it and how long is it going to last for?
1:01
Well, we're lucky enough to be joined by the retired US Rear
1:04
Admiral Mark Montgomery and the contributing editor and Times
1:08
columnist Cindy Yu. Cindy and Mark, thanks very much
1:11
for being with us Mark, as we have the the luxury of your long
1:15
time expertise as a naval man. Just as I think when people
1:19
think of a naval blockade, they think of large grey vessels with
1:22
guns sitting outside somebody's harbour with somebody, I don't
1:26
know on a loud hailer saying you are hereby blockaded.
1:29
This isn't quite what it's all about, is it?
1:32
No, it isn't. And that's because what we're
1:33
blockading are vessels transiting from an Iranian port
1:38
to another port, either carrying, you know, oil, some
1:43
kind of fossil fuel, maybe fertilizers.
1:45
And therefore we can intercept them wherever we want.
1:48
In fact, I if I were the Commodore in charge, I would
1:51
probably back off a little bit from the Iranian ports
1:54
themselves and do the the the detentions and the seizures some
2:00
distance away. Eventually that ship has to go
2:03
to the port that it's intended to go to, and you can you can
2:06
grab it almost anywhere along the way.
2:08
So the military in there by the political, economic objective,
2:11
just to be absolutely crystal clear, is not obviously to block
2:15
off trade from the straight, it's actually to open it to
2:18
everybody bar Iranian vessels. What it is, is, is Iran said you
2:24
cannot transit through here if you're from certain countries or
2:28
if you're from other countries and haven't paid a toll or if
2:31
you're Iranian. So, you know, what they did was
2:34
they illegally, you know, in contravention of maritime law,
2:39
prevented what's called transit passage to an international
2:42
waterway. And in doing that, you know, the
2:45
United States said, well, look, we have two things we can do.
2:47
We can either force our way open, you know, go back to a
2:50
kinetic conflict, knock back your forces, do a pay, you know,
2:54
what would probably end up being a a challenging convoy
2:57
operation, which we may do anyway eventually, or we can
3:01
say, you know, a pox on both your houses.
3:04
It we're going to prevent you. Those ships that are illegally
3:07
trans, you know, that are paying a toll, which is in
3:10
contravention of international law.
3:12
We can block them, you know, detain them and ship, ship them
3:18
off to a third party port to determine what to do with them.
3:21
Right. Thanks, Mark.
3:22
Well, now, Cindy, I'm sure you've heard what Mark's just
3:24
laid out. It sounds, to put it gently, a
3:27
little bit complex. An awful lot of things could go
3:31
very badly wrong, it would seem. With that, what do you what do
3:34
you make of it? Yeah, it could go wrong.
3:36
And especially when Trump seems to be wanting to bring other
3:40
countries into it because let's be clear, some of the ships
3:43
leaving Iranian ports are going to Iran's friends in the world.
3:48
That's including China, but also India and Pakistan.
3:51
So you're bringing more countries into this conflict by
3:55
basically hijacking what little oil can get out of Iran at the
3:59
moment with the hope that Iran will be the ultimate victim of
4:03
this. And it is estimated that Iran
4:06
might lose $13 billion a month in lost imports and exports
4:10
through a blockade like this. But at the same time, you're
4:12
hurting other countries that so far have stayed neutral.
4:15
And in particular, China is the big one here.
4:17
You know, what do you do? As we are seeing today, and this
4:20
is a situation still evolving, what do you do when a ship
4:24
leaves an Iranian port, supposedly heading for a Chinese
4:27
refinery and actually now seems to be stopped on the other side
4:31
of the Strait of Hormuz, Whereas Mark says they, the Navy, the US
4:35
Navy may be be doing some kind of action there to stop them
4:38
from moving on. You know, what Does that really
4:40
happen? How will that work in the future
4:43
with more and more vessels to stop like this?
4:45
Will China really accept it? And you have to also bear in
4:48
mind that actually the US and China are meant to be seeing
4:50
each other next month for this kind of trade war discussion,
4:54
which now will also will seem so 2025, doesn't it?
4:58
So, you know, there's, there's just a lot of kind of escalation
5:01
potential here that I, I don't know, nobody really knows how it
5:04
will play out. Just prior to us putting in this
5:07
blockade and you know the what, what Iran had established was a
5:13
very illegal mechanism that said only the ships we prefer can go
5:18
through. In other words, Saudi ships
5:19
weren't going to go through. Probably a lot of UAE ships
5:22
weren't going to go through unless they were going to China,
5:24
a lot of Qatar, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, in other words, the
5:28
Iranian, the Arab states that Iran held accountable for the
5:32
war. So it wasn't like the world was
5:34
getting 90% of the oil coming out of there before we did this.
5:38
What we're doing is shutting off that final 10%.
5:41
Yes. And Donald Trump has said, Mark,
5:44
has he not that he indicated that he'd obviously like other
5:47
countries, not least NATO to kind of come along and help as
5:51
it were, that didn't prove very effective in the early stages of
5:57
the of the shooting war with Iran by air, Did it?
6:01
Any sign that that's going to play any better in this aspect
6:05
of the war? No.
6:07
And Donald Trump's only an important lesson here.
6:09
If you mistreat your allies and partners for 14 months and then
6:12
give him a call saying, hey, could you come down to the
6:14
street fight I'm in, they're probably not going to join you.
6:17
And I don't blame the Europeans in the in NATO for being
6:21
particularly disappointed in Trump over Greenland.
6:23
I mean, there's a litany of issues over Greenland and other
6:26
things. So, and, and it's one thing to
6:29
not notify him. I wouldn't have trusted, I
6:31
wouldn't have told the 32 countries of NATO I was about to
6:34
do hit, you know, hit on Iran. I mean, what are the chances
6:37
Hungary wouldn't have spilled the beans on that under Orban,
6:40
right? I, I, I get why he didn't tell
6:42
NATO, but he should have immediately consulted with them
6:45
afterwards, told everyone he was doing and asked for assistance.
6:48
Like, like minesweepers. I'll be honest, there's not a
6:51
lot of there there in the European Navy's for like air
6:54
defense ships, escort, you know, the kind of ships that would
6:57
enforce this kind of blockade because 30 years of not spending
7:01
on defense, your navy's the big loser.
7:04
And the Royal Navy is a dumpster fire now.
7:07
The French Navy's not in much better shape.
7:09
The German Navy's a bunch of new ships that aren't really
7:12
weaponized yet. The Italian Navy's in no good
7:14
shape. I'm sorry.
7:15
Those navies are no longer pertinent players in a game
7:19
10,000 miles away in the Straits of Hormuz.
7:21
So we didn't miss that, but we did miss the minesweepers.
7:24
And the president should be criticized for his failure to
7:27
talk with the Europeans and the immediate aftermath of the start
7:30
of the strikes. And Cindy, that's quite a charge
7:33
sheet Mark just laid out there. The European Navy's a dumpster
7:36
fire in his view through neglect down the years economically
7:39
10,000 miles away from where they should be.
7:43
But in any case, why go and help Donald Trump when he sat around
7:46
insulting you anyway for months on months?
7:48
Yeah, well, quite. And I'm starting to think that
7:50
actually the breakdown in the the US and the European
7:54
relationship will take much more than Trump leaving the White
7:57
House to fix at this rate, because it's starting to feel
7:59
structural now, actually, so many European countries,
8:02
countries are thinking about alternatives, even if they don't
8:04
have much capacity or, or money to make those alternatives
8:08
happen. That even the thought of getting
8:10
strategic autonomy from America is, I think, damaging for for
8:13
the US in, in, in the kind of empire of consent, if you would
8:18
like to put it that way, that it had built with its allies across
8:21
the world. You've got the Spanish Prime
8:22
Minister this week in China talking about how much China
8:25
needs to take a greater role in the world because America can't
8:28
be trusted. You know, that's the kind of
8:29
stuff it's going to take much longer than Trump leaving the
8:32
White House to fix. And I'll defer to Mark on the
8:35
abilities of these navies. But of course, you know, the
8:38
other thing to consider is actually that the Strait of
8:40
Hormuz gives Iran an asymmetrical and oversized
8:43
ability to disrupt the world as everybody knew, You know, war
8:47
games, war gaming, this kind of situation for years have always
8:50
said that Iran could just close off the Strait of Hormuz.
8:53
Legal or not, That is something that they could just report, do
8:56
do very easily and disproportionately that disrupt
8:59
the rest of the world. And so, yes, of course, the
9:02
European navies should perhaps be better funded.
9:04
But at the same time, this is basically the first car that
9:08
Iran would have gone to at a strike situation, and it was not
9:12
one that it seems like the US prepared for.
9:14
Let's something just drill down into this in detail a little bit
9:18
for the next few minutes. And and Cindy, perhaps if you
9:20
could give us your a political answer to this question and then
9:23
Mark, I'll come to you for a military strategic one.
9:27
We understand as I said at the opening at the several vessels,
9:30
at least one apparently Chinese flag, several Iranian vessels
9:34
have already gone through the straits since this thing was
9:37
supposedly put in place. Well, politically, what do you
9:40
make of that, Cindy? Well, so as I as I, I think the
9:44
situation is developing such that any ships leaving uranium
9:47
ports haven't quite left the region.
9:50
So we don't know what is going on with ships like the Valpus,
9:53
which left an uranium port seemingly heading for China,
9:56
which hasn't basically moved since this morning.
9:58
That is Tuesday morning UK time. So we don't know if the US Navy
10:02
is is the result is the reason for that ship stopping.
10:05
Another ship, Rich Starry, which is the Chinese ownership left
10:09
the UAE port actually and traversed the Strait of Hormuz
10:12
and seems to be on its way to China.
10:14
So that does seem to have a lied outside of of the American
10:19
blockade. I mean, part of this is the
10:21
confusion of what the blockade really means because Trump has
10:24
said it's it's any any ship that goes via the Strait of Hormuz.
10:28
But then CENTCOM says that it's any ship that leaves the Iranian
10:31
ports. And, you know, I assume that the
10:33
latter is right, considering what we've seen today already.
10:36
But nobody really knows. And what a what a ridiculous way
10:39
to run the world, basically. Well, yes, it's certainly it
10:43
would seem that way. The Chinese certainly think so,
10:46
Cindy. They've already condemned this
10:48
in what for Beijing is unusually strong language, haven't they?
10:53
Yeah, and they've said that they strongly condemn any disruptions
10:56
to the world economy, any unilateral moves on to this.
10:59
And they've said a lot, you know, throughout all of this.
11:02
They condemn the Ayatollah's assassination as well.
11:05
They condemned building up of military presence in the region
11:09
by America before then as well. The Chinese haven't done
11:12
anything too material so far. What is interesting and
11:15
something to watch is the US intelligence reportedly showing
11:18
that China may be offering Iran these kind of shoulder
11:22
maneuvered anti air missile systems that would have an
11:26
impact on, for example, low air American action over Iran if
11:30
it's when, if and when the ceasefire breaks.
11:32
So if that has happened, you know, as I say, we are already
11:35
in certain territory. I think it would be very stupid
11:38
of China to get more involved in this.
11:40
But if Trump continues to force the issue and actually China
11:42
can't get its oil from from the Strait, I think it will have to
11:45
start thinking about a different way of doing things.
11:48
Right Mark, a note of of a semi despair almost exasperation from
11:52
Cindy just there. This is no way to run a world
11:55
quote UN quote. Is this any way to run a
11:57
military blockade in your view? A naval blockade.
12:01
I mean, if, if, if Sidney's exasperated, try being Admiral
12:04
Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander with this commander in
12:07
chief. So first I do need to say the
12:11
Royal Navy is, is, you know, has tons of good people in it.
12:15
I just think that they haven't paid their money and and
12:17
watching the defense minister recently not know the number of
12:20
ships is kind of a mildly when the numbers as low as it is,
12:23
it's kind of an embarrassing thing.
12:25
The Spanish need to be really careful.
12:27
I mean, they, of all the European countries, they're
12:29
treading into the most danger with Trump.
12:31
And most of us who think Trump is a little nuts on Europe, I
12:35
actually kind of think he's got Spain about right.
12:38
So they they should be very careful.
12:40
They are setting themselves up for a very long term frigid
12:43
relationship with the United States, which won't do them any
12:45
favours. But let me, but let me flip that
12:48
mark. Let me flip that the other way.
12:49
An awful lot of people, an awful lot of people in Europe think
12:52
the Spanish are the people who've got it exactly right with
12:54
Trump and they're standing up and calling a truth the truth
12:58
about him. So the Spanish were stuck at
13:00
1.3% on defense spending for 20 years and they were trying to
13:04
justify their low numbers by saying we're not gonna respond
13:07
to this blackmail from Trump. I mean, let's be clear, they
13:10
didn't. Exactly.
13:12
They are not a contributor. They've never been a
13:14
contributor. They don't see a threat from
13:16
Russia. They think China can help in the
13:19
since 1949, China's never helped out in anything internationally
13:23
except supporting North Korea in an invasion of South Korea.
13:26
So I think I'm going to be a little careful here in how the
13:28
Spanish handled themselves international relations.
13:31
They will be of all the countries.
13:32
I can IA lot of this can be forgiven.
13:35
The Spanish have really gone pretty far.
13:37
And look, Trump needs to be held accountable as well.
13:40
You know, he is, he is definitely more than 50% of the
13:43
problem back to Brad Cooper, his problem here is that he has, he
13:48
has inconsistent guidance for the president.
13:51
I, I can't tell yet whether if a ship leaves a non is Iranian
13:56
port but pays a toll, I think they then are blockaded.
14:01
So that might be the condition with the second Chinese ship
14:04
losing the UAE. But you know, if we don't really
14:07
know the rules, I'm not sure how you can hold the ship captives
14:10
responsible for not knowing the rules.
14:12
I will say these Chinese. Well, exactly, exactly what
14:15
you're you're a Rear Admiral. You're a Rear Admiral.
14:18
Look at this with your years of expertise and you're forced to
14:22
use dangerous verbs like I think you know, not I know that's
14:27
that's terrifying. I agree.
14:29
How's that for another verb? But the but you know, I'll I'll
14:32
tell you, I think there's a problem here.
14:35
You know, I think the president's making this hard.
14:37
Having said that, no one needs to The one thing if our Brad
14:40
Coopers, I wouldn't do anything urgently to get from Iran to
14:45
China's, you know, 14 to 21 days.
14:48
You have lots of time to figure out what you are and are not
14:51
going to do with that ship. My suspicion is the Chinese
14:54
ships are going to get a pass from Trump because of, as Cindy
14:58
referred to the the meeting May 14th and 15th between the summit
15:02
between XI and and Trump. And that's going to put the lie
15:05
to this blockade. I will say though, the non
15:08
Chinese bound stuff, which is principally India, I think
15:12
that's where a lot of the rest of this sanctioned oil, this
15:16
shadow fleet oil is going that I think we're going to seize and
15:20
India is going to have a problem very quickly.
15:23
Right. So, Cindy, let's bring this up
15:25
to the dear old subject of money.
15:27
It's kind of what it's all about as well as the military aspect.
15:31
The longer this goes on, I mean, Mark making a very clear case
15:35
that he thinks the Chinese could get a free pass outlook for
15:38
India, not nearly so good. Two huge economies.
15:42
The longer this goes on, with all the complexities that we've
15:45
been laying out here this afternoon, what does it do for
15:48
the global economy? Yeah.
15:50
And Alex, it's more than just about money, because money, of
15:53
course, is just a shorthand or rather a correlation of what
15:58
we're otherwise talking about, which is material living
16:00
standards. You know, we're talking about
16:01
jobs, we're talking about people's health, we're talking
16:04
about, you know, how entire countries fare for the rest of
16:08
the year and actually for the next few years, depending on how
16:10
this conflict, how long this conflict drags on.
16:12
So we've already seen in Europe, for example, a 60% rise in gas
16:16
prices. But actually it's it's Asia that
16:18
is most impacted by Strait of Hormuz energy blockade because
16:22
countries like Japan, for example, get over 90% of its
16:25
imported oil via the Strait of Hormuz.
16:29
The Arab nations, of course, being in the middle in the of
16:32
the storm. The UN estimates that they might
16:34
lose $200 billion in revenues as a result of this war.
16:38
So nowhere in the world is safe from the economic disruption
16:42
that will come from this. That will first of all hit by
16:44
energy prices and already hitting by energy prices, but
16:47
then will impact everything that energy goes into.
16:50
Things like fertilizers, which will impact the food industry,
16:53
things like transportation, things like manufacturing.
16:56
You know, some countries are already starting to ration their
16:58
power. Some countries are already
17:01
starting to tell the people to start working from home.
17:03
You know, we because we don't know how long this is going to
17:06
last for because we don't know what President Trump really
17:08
wants out of it. It is very, very hard to see
17:11
what the bottom is here, Alex. And I try to be very, very kind
17:16
of impartial here, but it is it is an exasperating situation.
17:20
And I think, you know, Donald Trump, for all his faults, has
17:23
been good on foreign policy for a long time.
17:26
And actually people have underrated him for that.
17:29
But this kind of latest war is just so uncharacteristic of the
17:34
kind of isolationism and the American first attitude that has
17:37
actually been quite good for America or just sorry, quite
17:41
good for America Solo, not for the Americans global alliances
17:44
right so far. But but it does it does just
17:47
seem bizarre that he get himself into this war and now he has no
17:51
way out and the rest of the world is paying a bill.
17:53
And just a brief point on Mark's point about Spain.
17:56
Yes, I can see why the Americans are annoyed with Spain, but just
17:59
look at it from the perspective of Europe or any of these other
18:01
areas and countries that I've mentioned. 90% of the FOD lies
18:06
with America and then everyone else has been taken along for a
18:09
ride here. You've got, you know, leaders of
18:12
countries from South Korea can comparing Israel to the actions
18:16
of Japan during World War 2. You've got countries like Spain,
18:19
but also you've got Italy. You know, Georgie Maloney is
18:21
hardly a left wing actor in Europe and she has been
18:25
criticizing Trump as well. So it's, it's there is, yeah.
18:31
I mean, it's hard to know how to conclude this point, but
18:33
basically the economic shock is very, very great.
18:35
We can have the Pope to that list.
18:37
We probably have the Pope to that list.
18:40
Yes, the Pope. That's a after, after Cindy's
18:44
global overview there. Let's bring it back to the
18:47
United States, shall we? Domestically longer though, all
18:50
this goes on in and around Hormuz, the more the price of,
18:54
of gas, petrol goes up in the US.
18:56
That's not good for the poll ratings of the president.
18:59
Small matter of the midterms trundling along towards us in
19:02
November. And he knows that, doesn't he?
19:05
Yeah, he does. We're going to have less impact
19:07
than the European and Asian States and Arab states that
19:10
Sydney went through. And I agree with her assessment.
19:13
And I put fertilizer as a, as a really top issue in, in food
19:16
production in, in a lot of places at at the top of the
19:20
list. But while we will have less gas
19:24
price challenges, they'll be some the the society resilience.
19:28
the United States is really low. We're not a good country for,
19:31
you know, for problems. And and with a midterm election
19:35
coming up, the president's going to be in a lot of trouble, in my
19:37
opinion. So, yeah, he has a lot of this
19:40
has to work quickly. This idea of cutting off the,
19:43
you know, 13 billion, you know, a month from the from the
19:49
Iranians. It's going to have an immediate
19:50
impact. If it doesn't, he's going to
19:52
have to pick some other tools to get them back to the negotiating
19:56
table. And I would caveat one thing.
19:58
I don't like much of his foreign policy and I'd throw his Russia
20:01
Ukraine policy on, you know, on the fire of not not executed
20:05
well, even from a make America great again stance.
20:09
So, you know, I think this is a long series of failures in my
20:13
mind by by Trump and and I'm very disappointed with him.
20:18
I'm just when I comment on the blockade.
20:21
I do think it's legal. I do think it's executable and I
20:24
do prefer it, you know, to trying to wedge open the
20:28
straight for convoy operations. I think that would lead to
20:31
casualties of US sailor casualties unnecessarily.
20:35
So right now, trying this blockade strikes me as the right
20:38
thing to do initially. Mark, why is the US blockade
20:41
legal but not legal? Because the US is responding,
20:46
What's happened is what the US is doing is seizing ships that
20:49
are participating in an illegal operation.
20:52
The illegal operation is they are being exempted from toll or
20:57
in the case when they're paying tolls, paying tolls while Iran
21:01
blocks the, you know, the transit passage through an
21:05
international waterway. You, you can't, you know, our
21:07
response to this can't be, well, you got away with it.
21:11
You know, it's got to be no, we're going to hold you
21:13
accountable. And that's what, that's what you
21:15
do. I, I'm, I don't think what he's
21:16
doing here, you know, not that he cares, but I, I don't think
21:20
what he's doing here is, you know, is illegal.
21:23
I think what he's doing here is a response to an Iranian action
21:27
to block. And it is Iran that blocked the
21:29
Straits of Hormuz. Isn't the Iranian blockade a
21:31
response to the war that he started, which is arguably
21:34
illegal as well? Yeah, well.
21:36
That's a separate argument about the war being illegal or
21:38
illegal. How you know his assessment of
21:40
whether there was a threat to United United States is what you
21:42
have to go through that. But no, blocking an
21:45
international Strait is not an allowable response.
21:48
What this is all about is also resilience.
21:52
Now, many would feel, and it's more a feeling than an
21:56
intellectual argument, the Iranians culturally, socially,
22:01
politically have resilience to the ends of the Earth compared
22:05
to the United States. the United States has an airman or two
22:09
missing and there's a state of almost national panic.
22:12
You compare that to what's actually being inflicted and
22:15
what the Iranian nation is going through.
22:18
And that's a factor here. As we've mentioned time and
22:21
mentioned, you said this has got to happen quickly, Mark, that
22:24
resilience, Sydney, is a big factor, isn't it?
22:27
Yeah. And I, I wouldn't want to
22:28
pretend to be an Iran expert here, Alex, but I think the, the
22:32
operative part seems to me is maybe the fact that when you are
22:36
the one under attack, that resilience comes much more
22:38
easily because it seems much more obvious that is an
22:41
existential risk to you. And this is the, this is what's
22:44
happening in Iran. And this is what happens at a
22:46
lot of the countries that not just America, but other nations
22:49
target over time. You know, I, I'm ethnically
22:52
Chinese. China, as you know, plays a lot
22:54
on this kind of memory of, of existential risk.
22:58
And it's not because the country is strong or because the people
23:00
are more smart or anything. I don't really think it's any of
23:03
that. I think it's just because when
23:04
you are the one forced to rally around your flag and when it is
23:07
an existential risk for your own country or your or your regime,
23:10
whatever you want to identify with, then it becomes much
23:13
easier to feel that that battle to the death.
23:15
I mean, I don't think America, Americans can feel that kind of
23:18
same sense of desperation. Just remember they murdered
23:22
32,000 protesters in about 40 hours.
23:26
I mean, this is not a popular regime, but you know, if the,
23:31
you know, when we started bombing like this, we don't
23:34
give, we didn't give do any of the preparation so that the
23:37
activists or so that, so that the people who are opposed to
23:41
the regime were armed and ready to go.
23:43
We did none of the proper preparation.
23:45
But the regime is resilient. And when you can kill 32,000 of
23:49
your people and get away with it, you're a pretty resilient
23:52
regime. So that's, that's an ugly
23:55
resilience. That's part of your, that's part
23:57
of this description. And I think people are
23:58
forgetting that a lot. I the United, you know, they're
24:00
blaming the United States for all this.
24:02
I mean, what was, what's Europe's response to the 32,000
24:05
people condolence cards, you know, a criticism of a country
24:09
trying to remove the regime. I'm sorry.
24:12
This is, you know, there's a lot of amnesia in Europe over the
24:16
Iranian regime and what they say about Israel, what they say
24:20
where they're going to get a bomb and what they do to their
24:22
people who protest. This is an evil group of, of
24:25
guys who have who have ruled this country mercilessly for 47
24:29
years. I'm not 100% sure I'd have any
24:32
empathy for them in in this case.
24:36
Now just going forward on the economic part of China, China's
24:39
in our in our minds, of course, because of the Chinese vessel
24:42
which has seemed to have gone through the straits thus far.
24:45
OK. Longer term, how does this play
24:48
for the Chinese economy, Cindy? I think it depends on how long
24:52
it goes on for. For now, you know, China is not
24:57
over at the front of the line as as one of the biggest victims of
25:00
this action, even though as as a figure often trotted out China
25:05
as a massive customer of Iranian oil. 80% of shipped Iranian oil
25:09
goes to China. You flip that stat on the other
25:12
on its head, the other way around.
25:14
And actually Iranian oil accounts for about 10% of
25:17
China's energy oil imports and about only 7% of China's total
25:22
energy consumption because actually China's so energy
25:25
independent. So going back to your point
25:26
about resilience, Alex, you know, 85% of China's energy that
25:29
it uses comes domestically basically.
25:32
So it's been preparing for a long time for external
25:34
disruptions precisely like this one.
25:36
So I think, you know, countries like Japan, for example, are
25:38
much more exposed. But that's a short term thing.
25:41
You know, in the long run, if there is a global recession, a
25:44
country like China whose economy is basically being kept afloat
25:47
by exports, needs customers, and that is not going to be good for
25:51
the Chinese economy either, which is probably only growing
25:54
at about 3 to 5% at the moment. Some people say even less than
25:58
that. So none of this is good for
26:00
China in the economic sense. Diplomatically though, depending
26:04
on how Trump plays the card, I think China has a lot of brownie
26:08
points, as it were, that it can win from the rest of the world
26:11
if it plays its own cards. Well, in the sense, because
26:14
right now, who looks like the most disruptive, the most
26:16
threatening actor to the rest of the world is not China, it's the
26:19
US. Cindy, Mark, thanks very much
26:22
for your valuable time. We've covered a huge amount of
26:24
ground in the last half hour or so.
26:26
Very grateful to you both. Thank you so much.
26:28
Thank you.