Latest / Earn Your Leisure / Cliff Notes: Why The Stock Market Goes Down Every September
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hi.
- 0:00Speaker 2: I'm Sherry Harris, owner of Life Source Water. As a
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- 0:28Speaker 2: Hurry offer in September thirty.
- 0:30Speaker 3: Warranty limitations apply.
- 0:31Speaker 4: Shout out to my young boy Shams.
- 0:33Speaker 1: He's just getting into the market, and so I had
- 0:35Speaker 1: showed him what the profits you can make in investing,
- 0:39Speaker 1: and he was like, man, that's incredible. But also I
- 0:41Speaker 1: took a picture of the games today because they were negative.
- 0:44Speaker 4: I told him like this, two sides of this point.
- 0:46Speaker 1: Yeah, what when you trust your research and you trust
- 0:50Speaker 1: what you've done, and you trust your investments, you don't flinch.
- 0:52Speaker 1: You don't even feel it because you know how this works.
- 0:55Speaker 1: We said this two weeks ago. I remember the date
- 0:57Speaker 1: September second, twenty twenty, when we had a huge pull back,
- 1:02Speaker 1: almost like nine percent. I'm like, Okay, this is a
- 1:05Speaker 1: new feeling. This is a feeling. Can you sustain this?
- 1:09Speaker 1: Can you walk away from this and not feel any
- 1:11Speaker 1: different about investment? And the overall answer was yes, I can.
- 1:16Speaker 1: So September comes around again and we spoke about witching.
- 1:19Speaker 1: In fact, we told people were not even going to
- 1:21Speaker 1: buy Conscious until after witching.
- 1:23Speaker 4: This wasn't a.
- 1:24Speaker 1: Surprise, it was just what would be the catalyst? Right,
- 1:27Speaker 1: So it was like, what was going to be the catalyst?
- 1:28Speaker 1: And so I ran some numbers, even real quick. So
- 1:31Speaker 1: if you look at the history of the DOW for
- 1:33Speaker 1: the past thirty years, right, this wouldn't even be a
- 1:35Speaker 1: surprise to us. Because you look at the past thirty years,
- 1:38Speaker 1: the dal Jones the week after quadruple witching or triple witching,
- 1:41Speaker 1: this is the third quarter out of the past thirty years,
- 1:44Speaker 1: it's been down twenty three out of thirty years, it's
- 1:47Speaker 1: only been seven up years in past thirty In the
- 1:49Speaker 1: past twenties, there's been fifteen down years and it's only
- 1:53Speaker 1: been up five times. And so we said September and
- 1:56Speaker 1: when we gave the months that we should be training.
- 1:58Speaker 1: Obviously we said that April until October is.
- 2:03Speaker 5: Rough, right, but you still got to keep money and
- 2:06Speaker 5: but yeah, September, and.
- 2:08Speaker 4: That's part of it too.
- 2:09Speaker 1: It's like, all right, well, this is a good if
- 2:11Speaker 1: we're positioning ourselves and we had money in a money
- 2:14Speaker 1: marketing account, like Shoddy always says, while keeping in saving account,
- 2:17Speaker 1: put in a money marketing account. If we're then we're
- 2:19Speaker 1: looking at the entry points now because some of those
- 2:22Speaker 1: entry points that we've been saying and we thought that
- 2:25Speaker 1: they would never come back to that life.
- 2:27Speaker 3: Listen, what y'all stop with that?
- 2:28Speaker 5: Like I'm telling you where to get in where I
- 2:32Speaker 5: want to get in where some of the people y'all
- 2:33Speaker 5: look up to, or calling me for entries, just get
- 2:36Speaker 5: them free for the culture I'm begging, Like we tried.
- 2:41Speaker 5: We tried to do like Troy Killer research man the entries.
- 2:45Speaker 5: If me trapped, Troy Bono and Josh Brown say it,
- 2:50Speaker 5: it's going to happen.
- 2:53Speaker 3: We're coming there now.
- 2:54Speaker 5: Like even with the dow, September has been bad since
- 2:57Speaker 5: the nineteen fifties historically, just research, even if you don't
- 3:02Speaker 5: do the research we've done all.
- 3:04Speaker 3: The research for you. Just looked at related.
- 3:08Speaker 5: Laid it out for you, man, Enjoy, enjoy. September is
- 3:12Speaker 5: a great month if you're looking to get into the market.
- 3:14Speaker 5: And when you pst it's crazy to even say like
- 3:16Speaker 5: two thirty nine to twenty eight is like a good
- 3:18Speaker 5: entry for it.
- 3:19Speaker 3: Smalls text me bro.
- 3:22Speaker 6: So in that video.
- 3:23Speaker 1: So when you saw a shotty posted video right when
- 3:25Speaker 1: you like, we're in the lab, what time was that
- 3:26Speaker 1: like twelve o'clock. No, we're really in the lab, Like
- 3:29Speaker 1: I'm saying, so all right, ware, did these contracts open at?
- 3:32Speaker 1: How far they pulled back? Is it now time to
- 3:34Speaker 1: enter straight up? Like you just video recorded because we were
- 3:37Speaker 1: on clothes all the day. But that's the work. That's
- 3:40Speaker 1: what we're doing.
- 3:40Speaker 3: That goes into it.
- 3:41Speaker 4: That goes into it. And so it's like, all right, well, nah.
- 3:45Speaker 1: As Amazon hit the point where I like it to
- 3:46Speaker 1: January twenty four, all right, let's see what happens tomorrow.
- 3:49Speaker 1: But we already had money in a money market account
- 3:51Speaker 1: ready to invest if it hits on. It's just about
- 3:55Speaker 1: being patience in.
- 3:56Speaker 6: Yeah, just quickly, I'm asking a question.
- 3:58Speaker 7: But yeah, that's something that you know, even going into
- 4:01Speaker 7: last week last.
- 4:02Speaker 6: Tuesday, I think, or last Wednesday.
- 4:04Speaker 7: You know, I just put a substantial amount of money
- 4:06Speaker 7: into my brokera's account, just to have it cleared on
- 4:09Speaker 7: time and to have it in a money market because
- 4:13Speaker 7: we know that around this time the stock market usually drops,
- 4:17Speaker 7: so we can kind of anticipate. We can never you know,
- 4:20Speaker 7: know exactly what's going to happen, but we can make
- 4:22Speaker 7: an educated guest on the past, and if you understand
- 4:27Speaker 7: the past, you know that around this time usually the
- 4:30Speaker 7: stock market always drops, so you got to be prepared.
- 4:33Speaker 7: So I'm just prepared and I didn't I still don't
- 4:35Speaker 7: even jump in today. I just didn't think. But the
- 4:38Speaker 7: positions I was looking at, I just felt like it
- 4:40Speaker 7: could drop a little bit lower.
- 4:43Speaker 6: But now prepared.
- 4:44Speaker 7: So it wasn't really a surprise when we saw that
- 4:47Speaker 7: stock market drop right now, because it's actually supposed to drop,
- 4:51Speaker 7: like this.
- 4:51Speaker 3: Is something that you know historically happened so often.
- 4:54Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's great.
- 4:55Speaker 1: Like and the people who've been listening to Market Mondays
- 4:58Speaker 1: since we started, we went through the this last.
- 5:00Speaker 4: September and it was like, oh my gosh, what are
- 5:02Speaker 4: we going to do? And see that they look put
- 5:06Speaker 4: your seatboot on.
- 5:07Speaker 1: Trust the resins that you've done, trust the investments that
- 5:09Speaker 1: you've made right, And we spoke about it two weeks ago.
- 5:13Speaker 1: What would your account or your portfolio look like had
- 5:16Speaker 1: you not moved at all?
- 5:18Speaker 4: Right?
- 5:18Speaker 1: If you pulled back in September nine percent, it was
- 5:22Speaker 1: a little slight one in October. I recall November we
- 5:25Speaker 1: started seeing some games, and December came and we saw
- 5:28Speaker 1: some games.
- 5:28Speaker 4: Had you not touched your portfolio, where would it be?
- 5:32Speaker 7: And just because the stock market pulls back, it doesn't
- 5:35Speaker 7: mean an individual positionally has pulled back to the point.
- 5:37Speaker 7: So SMH stock market is down. ESMAH was down heavy today,
- 5:41Speaker 7: but it's still only four percent off of this all
- 5:44Speaker 7: time high. It's all time high with seventy six and
- 5:47Speaker 7: it's had two sixty four right now. So like just
- 5:50Speaker 7: to kind of give you some perspective, if it drops
- 5:52Speaker 7: ten percent, that'll be two fifty, So it's still not
- 5:55Speaker 7: really that far from its all time high. XLK all
- 6:01Speaker 7: time high is at one sixty. It's at one fifty
- 6:03Speaker 7: two right now, so that's only a five percent drop,
- 6:07Speaker 7: very similar to SMH. You know, a twelve percent drop
- 6:10Speaker 7: would be one forty Apple Apple was a little bit
- 6:13Speaker 7: further dropped. Apples high was one fifty seven. It's at
- 6:16Speaker 7: one two right now, but that's nine percent. We talked
- 6:20Speaker 7: about that one thirty one thirty five range. So that's
- 6:23Speaker 7: important too, just because the stock market. You got to
- 6:25Speaker 7: look at your individual positions that you're looking at and saying, like,
- 6:29Speaker 7: all right, well four percent still not it still probably
- 6:32Speaker 7: has some more room to fall, just because the stock
- 6:37Speaker 7: market was down.
- 6:38Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean we got we got put in context, right,
- 6:40Speaker 1: like that's that pull back. I mean I think we
- 6:43Speaker 1: sit next to each other, we're like, Yo, this thing
- 6:45Speaker 1: gonna drop five hundred.
- 6:46Speaker 4: We're going to five hundred. But even now it was
- 6:48Speaker 4: like three percent, it's not a lot, it's not even
- 6:52Speaker 4: that even.
- 6:53Speaker 1: Doesn't qualify as a correction, right, Like it has to
- 6:56Speaker 1: at least be between six to twenty.
- 6:58Speaker 4: Percent, like well half to a correction. So we just
- 7:01Speaker 4: got to keep that in perspective.
- 7:04Speaker 5: It happens every single year. The one of my favorite
- 7:07Speaker 5: quotes the money Master of the Game is just like
- 7:10Speaker 5: any other climate, you're gonna have summer, spring, fall, winter,
- 7:15Speaker 5: September just happens to be when winter comes. Then Also
- 7:19Speaker 5: like for those of you who were at investvest. If
- 7:21Speaker 5: you love investments, please please drop fire and chat. But
- 7:25Speaker 5: I told you one of the best targets for you
- 7:27Speaker 5: to use for the Dallas five hundred and twenty three points.
- 7:29Speaker 5: So if you use the example that invest has of
- 7:32Speaker 5: thirty three contracts on the short today, you'd have been
- 7:35Speaker 5: up eighty six thousand, two ninety five. Well, there is
- 7:38Speaker 5: no such thing as a bad market. Only bad entries
- 7:41Speaker 5: into it and you end up getting out too early.
- 7:43Speaker 5: If this is your first time in the market, hold
- 7:47Speaker 5: people gonna tell you everything else. Ask them this, Are
- 7:50Speaker 5: they rich from investing or trading? Conversations will stop? Are
- 7:55Speaker 5: they free financially? The conversations will stop. Every September or October.
- 8:01Speaker 5: This happens in people panic. If you haven't got into
- 8:04Speaker 5: the market, chet and enjoy September because it's going to
- 8:06Speaker 5: be a great time for you to be able to
- 8:07Speaker 5: get in and take advantage of it. In year and
- 8:10Speaker 5: a half, you'll be happy if I've made you money.
- 8:12Speaker 5: Please put yes in chat so you can Verify's rent
- 8:16Speaker 5: and repeat.
- 8:17Speaker 7: Sixty two hundred people on the check hit the life
- 8:21Speaker 7: onnon Please.
- 8:22Speaker 5: Red Panda family, please hit the like button. Tell you aunties, Uncles, Grandma,
- 8:25Speaker 5: great aunties, hit the like button, and.
- 8:29Speaker 6: How to take advantage of drops with futures market.
- 8:35Speaker 3: I'm gonna just give you out of targets real quick.
- 8:37Speaker 5: Down You should short if the market falls and only
- 8:39Speaker 5: do this maybe three times a year.
- 8:41Speaker 3: Five hundred and twenty three points.
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- 11:33Speaker 5: Pints NOW'SDAK. I want you to go for seven hundred points.
- 11:37Speaker 5: The stop laws should be one hundred takes to one
- 11:41Speaker 5: hundred points. Your risk will want to make seven. Those
- 11:45Speaker 5: who will move faster. You don't really need to think
- 11:48Speaker 5: about the es. But here's the thing that is great
- 11:50Speaker 5: about the market. Too many people are so focused on puts.
- 11:55Speaker 5: You shouldn't have any long term positions to the downside.
- 11:58Speaker 5: Because ninety five percent of the move is going to
- 12:00Speaker 5: be up up over a five year period, so you're
- 12:04Speaker 5: traded in the wrong direction. But if we have a
- 12:06Speaker 5: violent drop like we did today, you can clean up
- 12:09Speaker 5: in an hour to offset any losses. Kudos to the
- 12:11Speaker 5: snipers that hit. I mean, there's some snipers today that
- 12:13Speaker 5: hit twenty and thirty grand. But the thing that I
- 12:17Speaker 5: want to stress that I stress that invest fest. I
- 12:20Speaker 5: only want you to take ten trades a year. Ten
- 12:24Speaker 5: learn how to trade with size, know how to get
- 12:26Speaker 5: the direction right one hundred percent of the time, and
- 12:28Speaker 5: then the way I'm able to stay into the market
- 12:30Speaker 5: when we have hard drops like this, if I'm able
- 12:33Speaker 5: to short the market, I never look at my long
- 12:35Speaker 5: term account to see what Apple, Microsoft, Vo, vug VTI.
- 12:39Speaker 5: These are scholarships, so write these down AMD are doing
- 12:44Speaker 5: so if I'm able to make money when them and
- 12:46Speaker 5: I'm gonna be real man, I love when the.
- 12:48Speaker 3: Market drops like this.
- 12:51Speaker 5: It shakes all these scary ass investors out who haven't studied,
- 12:54Speaker 5: because if the market is bloody and you're afraid, it
- 12:57Speaker 5: means you haven't put enough time in.
- 12:59Speaker 3: I don't want you to buy at a high. I
- 13:01Speaker 3: want you to buy when things are at a low.
- 13:03Speaker 3: We are at a proverbial loan, and in three months
- 13:06Speaker 3: you will forget this even happen now.
- 13:08Speaker 5: If you want to know a day that is identical
- 13:10Speaker 5: to today, go to August twenty fourth and August twenty fifth,
- 13:15Speaker 5: twenty first, So August twenty first and twenty fourth of
- 13:17Speaker 5: twenty fifteen.
- 13:19Speaker 3: See how that move played out.
- 13:21Speaker 5: We are at some point going to get a dead
- 13:23Speaker 5: cat bounce off the weekly chart, and we're going to
- 13:26Speaker 5: bounce off of it and come back down. Mark off
- 13:29Speaker 5: your areas in advance. A lot of people are panicking
- 13:31Speaker 5: because what happens in September. You should be marking off
- 13:35Speaker 5: the places you want to get in for October and
- 13:37Speaker 5: in September, excuse me, in August you need to be
- 13:39Speaker 5: prepare where you want to get in for September, always
- 13:42Speaker 5: playing your entries a month in advance. But if you
- 13:45Speaker 5: want to see a day that mirrors today, pull up
- 13:49Speaker 5: the data on Thinker Swimming from August twenty or you
- 13:51Speaker 5: can do it on Trading View August twenty fourth, twenty fifteen,
- 13:54Speaker 5: and'll tell you exactly what could happen. Nobody in the
- 13:57Speaker 5: next couple of weeks.
- 14:01Speaker 6: Let me ask you this being that we know that.
- 14:06Speaker 7: This time of the year and always the stock market
- 14:09Speaker 7: usually always goes down.
- 14:11Speaker 6: Your reference for next year?
- 14:14Speaker 7: Is this something that people can play an inverted index
- 14:18Speaker 7: play for.
- 14:19Speaker 3: I wouldn't do it.
- 14:21Speaker 5: I'm gonna be real because most people don't have to
- 14:22Speaker 5: discipline to I know I've told you guys about uv
- 14:25Speaker 5: XY before, but if you don't listen, like you shouldn't
- 14:30Speaker 5: hold an inverted index longer than two days because you're
- 14:34Speaker 5: betting against the market. The market is going to be
- 14:36Speaker 5: up majority of the time. And what's going to happen?
- 14:38Speaker 5: Man Rashad gotta holler at you, bro. You call Ian
- 14:41Speaker 5: a goat and I'm getting slaughtered. How are you the goat?
- 14:46Speaker 4: Yeah?
- 14:47Speaker 5: Bro, all lost fifteen hundred. I'm like, I didn't tell
- 14:50Speaker 5: you to hold it for that long to index to tech,
- 14:52Speaker 5: no stress, listen to me. If someone else made you
- 14:57Speaker 5: more money than listening to me, please log out a
- 14:59Speaker 5: market mone watch.
- 15:00Speaker 3: How these numbers don't change.
- 15:02Speaker 5: I'm begging y'all please stop making this so complicated. Like
- 15:07Speaker 5: if I'm giving you the Phil Jackson triangle and we
- 15:08Speaker 5: got microL.
- 15:09Speaker 3: And Kobe, we're good. So what Bill.
- 15:11Speaker 5: Wanting to miss one shot? We got it on the
- 15:13Speaker 5: next three pound baby, Like, it's not that complicated. The
- 15:16Speaker 5: part that makes it tough as people alter a recipe.
- 15:20Speaker 5: Like imagine if you went to Coca Cola. I was
- 15:23Speaker 5: in Atlanta, like and you finally cracked, like went in
- 15:25Speaker 5: and got the formula from the vault, and you like,
- 15:27Speaker 5: I'm gonna add some pepper and chive to this because
- 15:31Speaker 5: my grandmamaa love peppering.
- 15:32Speaker 3: That's not the Coca Cola formula. Just stick with it.
- 15:36Speaker 3: If you're gonna do it.
- 15:37Speaker 5: Inverted index and you're gonna trade a great holder for
- 15:38Speaker 5: two days max. But anything more than that you're gonna
- 15:41Speaker 5: tear your account.
- 15:42Speaker 7: And the inverted index is betting what the stock market
- 15:45Speaker 7: is gonna go down. Yes, index that goes up when
- 15:48Speaker 7: the stock market goes down.
- 15:50Speaker 1: Right, So like the day like today, if you had
- 15:52Speaker 1: a down, I think that at his peak in today
- 15:55Speaker 1: was down nine hundred and seventy points mmm. Like if
- 15:58Speaker 1: you had an invert index, then you would have made
- 16:00Speaker 1: money because obviously you dropped one hundred and seventy But
- 16:03Speaker 1: like I said, it closed that.
- 16:04Speaker 6: Six six sixty down down.
- 16:07Speaker 4: So that's it.
- 16:08Speaker 1: And that's another thing is that we always preach about
- 16:11Speaker 1: not fall a sleep at the wheel and so always
- 16:13Speaker 1: stress to people some of those indicids.
- 16:15Speaker 4: Right, Like we watched the vics, and so if we've
- 16:16Speaker 4: were watching the.
- 16:17Speaker 1: VIX, we've been solely seeing that VIX creep up out
- 16:19Speaker 1: of the teens up into the twenties today I think
- 16:22Speaker 1: twenty six, and so we keep an eye on that
- 16:24Speaker 1: because we know that that.
- 16:25Speaker 7: Means it's the volatility. It's very important for people. They
- 16:28Speaker 7: might a lot of people just tune in for the
- 16:30Speaker 7: first time.
- 16:30Speaker 1: So what is the VIX social volatility index? And so
- 16:33Speaker 1: it shows you how the market is moving.
- 16:36Speaker 3: If the number gets high, markers reacting.
- 16:38Speaker 4: Right, how the market is reacting.
- 16:39Speaker 1: So if you see those numbers creeping higher, usually in
- 16:42Speaker 1: that range of ten to twenty, well ten to fifteen,
- 16:46Speaker 1: I don't want to say twenty because it's up there now,
- 16:48Speaker 1: it means that this is pretty like some steady movement
- 16:51Speaker 1: inside the market.
- 16:52Speaker 4: We saw creeping up inside the twenties.
- 16:54Speaker 1: You know, last September we had forty two, that's October
- 16:58Speaker 1: hit forty seven.
- 17:00Speaker 3: Marshall here eighty point eight five on the box statu yeah.
- 17:02Speaker 1: Five right on the thirteenth, right when the world when
- 17:06Speaker 1: the world closed, it was like, all right, well, this
- 17:08Speaker 1: is going to be some extreme volatility we saw to
- 17:11Speaker 1: shoot up. Another thing that we always talked about is
- 17:13Speaker 1: the fair and greet in debts, and I know that's
- 17:15Speaker 1: something you brought up. Always hit twenty one right now, right,
- 17:18Speaker 1: And we know when we see fear, we feast, right,
- 17:22Speaker 1: we don't. We're finding oppositions. We waited for these these moments.
- 17:26Speaker 1: That's why I said it. Investment takes extreme discipline. And
- 17:29Speaker 1: so yeah, you.
- 17:30Speaker 4: Might have to wait five weeks, you might have to
- 17:31Speaker 4: wait six months.
- 17:32Speaker 6: What is the fear and.
- 17:35Speaker 5: It measures the ratio of which people are fearful about
- 17:38Speaker 5: the market versus super optimistic.
- 17:42Speaker 6: Right, But it's very important because we can't we can't
- 17:44Speaker 6: take it.
- 17:44Speaker 3: We can't look over it for the first time.
- 17:46Speaker 6: We can't take it that somebody just automatically knows.
- 17:48Speaker 4: No, somebody said it for the first time.
- 17:50Speaker 1: And so that index goes from zero to one hundred, right,
- 17:52Speaker 1: And so the further you go to one hundred, that's
- 17:55Speaker 1: extreme greed.
- 17:55Speaker 4: Right.
- 17:55Speaker 1: If it's extreme greed, usually it is going to be
- 17:57Speaker 1: a pullback because people are over saturate the market, the overbying.
- 18:02Speaker 4: When we see extreme fear that obviously the number gets know.
- 18:04Speaker 5: If it gets a zero, please buy shout as to
- 18:06Speaker 5: everybody was one and two.
- 18:08Speaker 1: I was gonna say, if we go under twenty, this
- 18:10Speaker 1: is this might be a point, like that might be
- 18:12Speaker 1: the trigger point.
- 18:13Speaker 5: I think we might have mentioned that, like I think
- 18:14Speaker 5: eight point five is a great play, like, but if
- 18:16Speaker 5: it ever gets like, put all the money you can in.
- 18:19Speaker 3: If it goes.
- 18:20Speaker 1: Zero, that means it's extreme fear.
- 18:24Speaker 4: And this is why it's so important to be ready.
- 18:27Speaker 3: Like we all differ context my bet trick.
- 18:32Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, it's the same thing, like
- 18:33Speaker 1: we don't have to get ready to stay ready.
- 18:35Speaker 5: Yes, the last time the vix was this hot, like
- 18:37Speaker 5: was at a like a frothy moment like this was January.
- 18:42Speaker 5: It was at thirty five. It went on a six
- 18:44Speaker 5: month run of being down. I'm going to tell you, like, okay,
- 18:48Speaker 5: so the crystal ball shining bright. We'll probably get back
- 18:51Speaker 5: to nineteen within three weeks. It's nothing to worry about.
- 18:54Speaker 5: If you are afraid of Apple, Microsoft, AMD and Video
- 18:58Speaker 5: cost Co Home Deep, write these down because you want
- 19:01Speaker 5: a scholarship.
- 19:01Speaker 3: V T I v O VUG please sell them to me.
- 19:06Speaker 5: Please please DM me at the Master investor sell them
- 19:09Speaker 5: to me. You're going to be upset in the year.
- 19:12Speaker 5: I'll take all the shares off you Small's call me
- 19:15Speaker 5: next time too.
- 19:19Speaker 6: There you have it. There you have it, Ladies and gentlemen.
- 19:24Speaker 9: My graduates from my school being forced back. Drop drop,
- 19:30Speaker 9: Mike drop, You.
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