Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 7/20/26: 4 US Troops Killed, Houthi Red Sea Blockade, Mearsheimer Dire Warning

Transcript

7/20/26: 4 US Troops Killed, Houthi Red Sea Blockade, Mearsheimer Dire Warning · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday, having amaze the
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: show for a buddy today, what do we.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Have, Crystal?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Indeed we do so More American service members have been
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: killed and wounded.
• 0:41
  Speaker 4: We've got the details of that.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: As we seem to be hurtling back towards all out war.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Martaza Hussein is also going to join us to take
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: a look at the strikes between the Iran and the
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: US and try to glean what we can about the
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: military strategy involved from each. We're also going to do
• 0:56
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• 1:00
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  Speaker 2: to play a few of these clips. They're quite extraordinary.
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  Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: As Crystal said, it's very sadly with the debts announcement
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: of American service members. Let's actually put the first element
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen quote the US heitters on
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: return to all out war with Iran after more troops
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: were killed. So the details of this are really tragic.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: We now have currently three likely service members who were
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: killed in that attack on a base in Jordan, and
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: another who was killed yesterday in Iraq during a detonation
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: of an unexploded Iranian drone.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: That one appears to have been a very serious accident.
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: While the drone was being decommissioned or exploded in a
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: controlled way, the debris ended up striking and killing another person,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: not the person who is doing that. In terms of
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: those three service members, two have been confirmed to have
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: been killed in action. We learned the names of two
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: of them just this morning at twenty five year old
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: first lieutenant and a nineteen year old private, nineteen year
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: old girl from Texas, which just kills me on it,
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: I can't continue to talk about that. The last one
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: is a last one servicement. We don't have their identification
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: yet appears to have been They were initially listed as missing.
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: Some remains have been found to the identification process for
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: that body is now underway. But what we do know
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: is that the video of the strike, and we can
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: show that one all of you, just demonstrates how difficult
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: the United States now finds itself in a position where
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: this is a Air Force base in the middle of Jordan,
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: where previously we've had seen strikes in terms of drones.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: But look at what that looks like when a.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Ballistic missile slams into the middle of the base and
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: of course kills or likely three service members, but also
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: does a significant amount of damage. A lot of the
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: after action report that has come out from this strike
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: actually demonstrates the sheer nightmare that we are all living
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: in right now. It appears that these missiles are being
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: fired directly in a way that having learned through multiple
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: months now of strikes on US basis that Iran has
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: actually developed new tactics to be able to penetrate American systems.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of speculation, obviously not confirmed right now
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: as to the lock the low stock of interceptors which
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: we have hammered home here from the beginning on the show.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Nobody knows what the current stock pilot is. Somewhere between
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: fifty and eighty percent of US interceptors are likely already depleted,
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: which means we could be in rationing. And this is
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: what rationing would look like, is that you just simply
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: don't have the ability to hit everything.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So it's either or.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: The Pentagon has not given any details, and we also know,
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: and this is the element guys I sent this morning,
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: is that there have been hundreds of now casualties which
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: have been hidden from the American people. We could put
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: this up from the New York Times, which says the
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Pentagon has withheld dozens of US military injuries now in
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: the Iran war. Dozens actually just this week quote attacks
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: injured dozens of service members, damaged several helicopters. According to
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: several US officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: to discuss operational matters, and that included those strikes that
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: actually killed these multiple service members. In this particular strike
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: as well as across the region, the Pentagon has not
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: released any updates whatsoever on those strikes. They also have
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: reduced the information in terms of the strikes that they
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: are conducting, which demonstrates again that they are very fearful
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: of the amount of information the Iranians have been able
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: to take in and to adapt their tactics. No signs
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: yet that things are abating. Trump previously, in a Wall
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: Street Journal report about two months ago, had said that
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Trump is content with the ceasefire strategy as long as
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: no Americans are killed.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: And now we have four that are killed, well, three likely.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Another confirms four likely debts, all just in a twenty
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: four hour period, which all of this is not looking.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Good right now.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and many more.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: There's you know, indications that in that strike there are
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: many more serious serious injuries as well. In that original
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Washington Post piece that we had up on the screen,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: they're saying, not only are we low on interceptors, we're
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: low on pretty much everything. There were officials that they
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: spoke to I'll read this portion speaking on the condition
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: of anonymity, caution that the expansion of US operations will
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: range munitions, and constraints on the ability to surge more
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think the White House is aware of that.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Just sit with that for a second. This official within the.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Trump administration is saying, we don't have the troops, we
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: don't have the long range munitions, we certainly don't have
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the interceptors to continue with this operation, this escalation that
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: we've been pushing forward. And I don't know that the
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Administry station that the White House Trump knows about that.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: They go on to say military experts have said that
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: in addition of the toll taken on US equipment and
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: munition stocks, the US is unprepared for possible ground operations
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: inside or on that Trump last week refused to rule out.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: So this couldn't be the reason why after a series
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: of high level, quite significant strikes, there actually was a reduction.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: It seemingly, again based on what we can gleam from
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: public information.
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: There was a reduction in the number of.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Strikes, you know, as the weekend progressed. It could be
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: simply due to limitations and what we're able to do
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: So that is absolutely extraordinary.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: And then the other thing I wanted to point out
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: with regard to the strike on this Jordanian base. We'll
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: talk to Mos more about this because he'll have more detail.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: But Jordan has long been very close to US ally.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: We send them billions of dollars and they allow us
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: to operate basically freely within their country. They also have
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: very large Palestinian population, including actually the Queen who's pallaced
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: Ani and Jordanian, and so they have a very sensitive
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: political situation as well, which is why they've always downplayed
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: the presence of US troops on their soil. But very
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: clearly we've been operating there for a long time. We're
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: not particularly shy about talking about it.
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: The IRGC put out a statement thanking the Jordanian people
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: for providing the targeting information that enabled these strikes, and
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: they think in particular some members of the Jordanian military.
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: So this is an important piece to keep in mind.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know whether that's true or not, or whether
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: that's just they want to project, but it is important
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: to keep in mind that even though the governments of
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: these nations, these Gulf nations that were operating out of,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: or Arab nations in the case of Jordan that we're
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: operating out of, even though the governments may be aligned
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: with the US, the people is a very different story. So,
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: you know, even though they're monarchies and you know, don't
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: have freedom of democracy in most instances, you still have
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: pressure from people that create It's also a very volatile
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: political situation and a lot of exposure for US.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: In the region.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: That's almost certainly not true in terms of the military piece.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: It's almost certainly true whenever it comes to the population. Actually,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: we can just give you an example. Let's put a
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: two up here on the screen just to show all
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: of you. This is satellite imagery which was released by Iran,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: which actually shows many of the strikes across the region.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: So we have Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. I
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: mean Bahrain. We have talked a lot over the last
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: several months here on the show about their Shia population,
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: how they had serious domestic uprisings and actually a scap
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: of being part of their population is on the side
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: of Iran, right, and so of course it would make
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: a complete sense that they probably have you know, fifth
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: calumnists and others who are much more siding with the
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: Iranians than with the United States Jordan. As you just said,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: that one is self explanatory, and that's where many US
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: service members all were just killed within the last forty
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: eight hours.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Iraq also major Shia.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: Population, started to tell anybody about the US popularity in Iraq,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: where actually the minister in the United States just president
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: just met a few days ago, and in it they
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: committed to a removal of US forces eventually from Iraq.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: Anyone want to tell me why they're even there since
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: after two thousand and three. But you know, of course
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: that's the American Empire, and then Kuwait and Katar, so
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: all of these countries have bases tens of that maybe
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands. At this point, we really have no idea.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: That's one thing I also want to emphasize. I just
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: see that we are getting such a tiny little picture
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: of what's actually happening. Yeah, these Gulf countries have cracked
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: down so hard. We have no clue what's coming out
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: of that reach, like the videos and all of that
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: from the early days of the war.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: They are not going to allow any of that anymore.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: We also know the international news agencies and others are
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: under strict censorship regime a lot of the population. You know,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: they're all being monitored for what they can and can't
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: put out. You know, here in terms of about the
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: US service members that have all been wounded, that all
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: of that was covered up and it did you know,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the battle damage assessment others is coming by anonymous leaks,
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: very likely from people in the military who are shocked,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: who are horrified about what's happening. And we're really I
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: mean I feel in a sober mood. I think we're
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: on the precipice. I just do not see a way
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: out at this point. We will talk with MOZ about
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: there's a new ten day cease fire. I mean, we've
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: just seen it all before. At this point, the strategic
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: logic of it just keeps coming back to the Iranians.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: One exact pain.
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: Their global strategy is one where we punish the US consumer.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: We'll talk later.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Oil so gas is back at four dollars a gallon
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: at a national price. Their other strategy is to cause
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: significant chaos and to create costs on the Gulf countries
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: for their alliance with the United States. And you know,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: in these service members in particular, you could say in
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: the beginning, like, oh, you know they were America was
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: dragged into.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: This war by these reel. It's not entirely true, but
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: you know, partially true. At the very least.
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: This is Trump, Like this is all just Trump is
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: firing as a right these people dot What did these
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: people die for?
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I know that's an uncomfortable.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: Question, but how can like this is so entirely on Donald,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: So this is a nineteen year old girl there who
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: is dead because of these strikes. Also, if you look
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: at their occupation, they're all work in missile defense and
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: in artillery units. So what does that tell you about
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Iranian targeting? So they know exactly where the specialized units are.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: Remember when that Space force casualty was killed as well.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: So they're directly have high levels of intelligence and they're
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: creating significant costs here and for them, they have had
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: orders of magnitude people be killed. But they're living in
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: an existential conflict like One of the clips will show
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: people in a little bit is the Foreign Minister Arachi
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: talking about do you know what it's like to sit
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: in a meeting and think you're going to get bombed?
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: That puts you in a genuine bunker mindset. None of
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: us are there. We can't even tell you why at
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: the poling came out today. The Iran War is the
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: least popular war in the history of Poling, in the
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: history of Poe.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: It took six.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Years for Americans to get to this point whenever came
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: to Vietnam, and even then there was still some dead
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: enders and others. There's nobody thirty percent or whatever of
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: the country only who is still mainlining Fox News, who
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: still believes a lot of the stuff.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: But the problem is those people in Trump's space are
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: overwhelmingly in favor of it. And so even though you
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: would look at the national picture and say, oh, that
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: it argues in favor of getting out, I mean, the
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: problem for him politically is if he gets out and
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: accepts the surrender, he knows he's politically screwed. If he
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: does something insane, ground incursion, nuclear weapon, god forbid, there's
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: some chance maybe it works out. So I guess the
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: way he's looking at it is while taking some chance,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: having some possibility that I can turn this thing around,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: is better than the certain humiliation that is entailed in
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: accepting the Memo of Understanding, this on the table. And
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: by the way, you know, we just sort of assume
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: that what was agreed, the framework that was agreed to before,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: is going to continue to be on the table. And
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's a safeth assumption whatsoever, because what
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Trump is effectively done here has proven the hardliners in
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: Iran correct. After they signed this Memo of Understanding, then
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: the first thing they do is go out and try
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: to establish this other cord or that the US can
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: control in the Strait of Hormus. Your audience said, look,
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: we knew we couldn't trust these people. See, we can't
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: trust them, you can negotiate them, you can't work with them.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: We should have continued our own striking, our own bombing
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: campaign so that we could gain war leverage, and they
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: have not experienced enough pain. That is the view that
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: is going to be a sendate in Iran because of
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: our actions here. So with that being said, let's go
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: ahead and bring in Rataza Hussein from drop site to
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: talk about everything that has transpired so far.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: Mad's good to see.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: You could see both good sea man.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: So your reaction to the events over the weekend, these
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: escalating strikes, the service members who have been killed.
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: Where do you think we are at this point?
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: Well, you know, it's really heartbreaking actually because I think
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: we were told many months ago that the war was
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: over and we're still taking casualties in the region as
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: the results of the conflict. I think if the war
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: were to continue, it's only going to get in terms
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: casualties and escalation and so forth, because the phase of
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: the war is now moving to one where the defending party,
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: who's trying to wage a war patrician.
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: Really has the advantage.
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: The way the Iranians fought the war was effectively in
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: the early stages, they were using their older ballistic missiles
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: to try to drain the missile defenses throughout the region.
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: And you know that meant that the US is fighting
• 15:26
  Speaker 6: for a position of advantage because the suspenses were stronger.
• 15:29
  Speaker 6: Those have either been destroyed now or significantly depleted by
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: those attacks, and which you saw in these attacks with
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: the Iranians are using their more advanced missiles the ones
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: that they were holding in reserve, and they're doing more damage.
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: They're more accurate, they're hitting farther away from Iran, they're
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: striking targets with great precision, and that will continue if
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: the war continues on in this fashion. So I think
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: that the MoU really was a great time for the
• 15:54
  Speaker 6: US to end the war because it was ending in
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: a position. While you know, the deal, the terms were
• 15:59
  Speaker 6: not great for the US. It was ending at a
• 16:01
  Speaker 6: time when Iran's advantages as the nutritional power were not
• 16:06
  Speaker 6: really coming to point beer. If the war doesn't go
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: on a lot, it's going to be quite a bit
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: more of this, And it's really heartbreaking because I saw today,
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: I think stugar I mentioned that the nineteen year old,
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: the twenty.
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: Three year old were killed.
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: There's no reason for those people to be in the
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: Middle East dying in a war against Iran. But if
• 16:20
  Speaker 6: the war does continue, unfortunately, there's going to be a
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: lot more of that, and we'll also see more pressure
• 16:25
  Speaker 6: for a ground campaign because the air campaign itself is
• 16:28
  Speaker 6: not designed to defeat Iran. It's not really capable of
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: doing that. And the way that the war is also fought,
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: the campaign intensity of the air goes down over time,
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: so really February twenty eighth March fourth that period that
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: was the peak intensity and it only goes down from there.
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: And these destruction of bases is also going to further
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: reduce the effectiveness of the aerial weapon, so there'll be
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: more pressure to take an island, to launch some sort
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: of ground campaign, and that will mean more casualties inevitably
• 16:55
  Speaker 6: as the war continues.
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: Let's put a eight up there on the say a seven.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: I apologize. The US actually attacked a nuclear power plant
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: site in Iran. Several missiles hit the power plant. This
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: caused some retaliation from the Iranians who appear to have
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: hit Let's put a six please on the screen multiple
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: desalination and power plants in Kuwait. The targeting of civilian infrastructure,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: both from the United States and then in retaliation from
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Iran kind of fulfills this escalation trap that we've been
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: worried about MOS. But does the United States have the
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: military capacity to sit here and take this for even
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: another year. I mean, everything that we've seen so far
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: from the depletion of interceptor socks in just a matter
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: of thirty nine days, God only knows what those numbers
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: are right now after these series of strikes currently. I mean,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: it does seem to create a logic where you literally
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: have to do a ground invasion or buckle in the
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: future or you will simply have nothing left whenever it
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: comes to firing back missiles being sent to you.
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: Well, you know, that's exactly the problem, because first of all,
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: the depletion of interceptor stocks and the destruction of air
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: defenses means that the war becomes more dangerous for the
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: US and as allies as it goes on, and we're
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: currently entering that phase at the moment. But secondly, there
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: will be more pressure because the US can either capitulate
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: or leave the conflict without a deal. I think a
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: deal itself, for many reasons we can talk about, is
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: probably becoming more unlikely, or could escalate to the ground
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: and escalate to try to invade the Iranian coast, try
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: and invade certain islands in Iran and.
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: Capture them and so forth.
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: But that really does not make a lot of sense
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: to me either, because, first of all, leaving aside the
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: casualties that will take place in that circumstance, it's.
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: Not clear why that would end the war.
• 18:42
  Speaker 6: If the US takes a couple of islands, and the
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: straightform moves, Iran will fire ballistic missiles those islands.
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: People will be killed in those attacks.
• 18:51
  Speaker 6: There'll be a question of how to resupply people on
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: the islands, how to keep them there, what they'll be
• 18:56
  Speaker 6: doing while they're there, how to keep them safe, and
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: so forth. Those quess won't go away, and that escalation
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: will leave further escalation, because then if you hold the islands,
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: you may need to hold part of the coast to
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: keep the soldiers there safe. And then when you're on
• 19:09
  Speaker 6: the coast to be hit by drones and ground attacks,
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: you'll have to invade further inland. And really the logic
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: of it is eventually you'll have to invade the country
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: all the way to Tehran to depose the government by ground,
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: because that's the only way of even theoretically keeping people
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: making your previous gains sustainable, and that if you look
• 19:27
  Speaker 6: at the size of Iran, it's a country of ninety
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: two million people, it's the size of Western Europe. You
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: really need a draft to be able to even think
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: about doing that, and even a draft itself will probably
• 19:37
  Speaker 6: not be generate enough brigades to hold the entire country
• 19:40
  Speaker 6: and pacify and so forth.
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: And I don't think anyone in America really wants that.
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: If you've meantally mentioned earlier, the war's the most unpopular war,
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: and since polling has been done before a draft, before
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: a crown campaign, and so forth. Really at the early stages,
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: so it seems politically impossible. But the US and Trump
• 19:56
  Speaker 6: himself has kind of boxed himself into this situation whereby
• 20:00
  Speaker 6: he can either walk away, which I think he still
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: can do, or he can be trapped in the situation
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: of greater and greater escalation, which will be much more
• 20:07
  Speaker 6: casualties without any guarantee even.
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: Victory at the end.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Right as we got some significant development. I want to
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: get to you in just a minute, but I wanted
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: to get your sense of what you read into the
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: targets that were chosen, both on the Iranian and the
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: American side. So first, let's start with why are the
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Iranians hitting Jordan so hard at this point, which is
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: a relatively new development here.
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: What do you think is the strategy at play?
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: Well, you know there are two things here.
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: First of all, in the early phases of the war,
• 20:35
  Speaker 6: Iran hit really hard. The bases which are closer to Iran,
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: and a lot of those bases have been disabled now
• 20:41
  Speaker 6: so they can't really be used and they're not deemed
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: safe enough to be used for air campaigns. A lot
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: of the infrastructure there has been destroyed and so forth.
• 20:48
  Speaker 6: And what they also did was they hit a lot
• 20:50
  Speaker 6: of the radars and air missile defenses which were between
• 20:54
  Speaker 6: itself and Jordan. So Jordan is basically the next domino
• 20:58
  Speaker 6: in line. And what the US did when the basis
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: closer to the Iran became unsafe or destroyed, they moved
• 21:03
  Speaker 6: more of their assets to Jordan. So Jordan became the
• 21:05
  Speaker 6: primary hub, one of the major, most important hubs for
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: waging the war against Iran. And now it's at the
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: front line, and now it's being hit really hard, and
• 21:15
  Speaker 6: now those bases are going to probably most likely be
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: deemed unsafe or disabled for the fight going forward. And
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: the aircraft love to move further away, so they have
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: to move probably to Israel. And Israel is further obviously
• 21:27
  Speaker 6: from Iran. It's also more defensible from the air because
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: more compact and the air defense density is greater around
• 21:35
  Speaker 6: its critical sits.
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: So you know, I think that's probably the next step.
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: What Iran is doing is trying to disable all the
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: bases in the Middle East which it can be used
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: to attack it, which are close to it, render them
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: unusable for the war. And if you have to fly
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: from Israel, you'll have to fly, There'll be fewer flights,
• 21:52
  Speaker 6: there'll be longer distances, and so forth, And the effectiveness
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: of an air campaign fought at a long distance is
• 22:00
  Speaker 6: much munch less than those which are fought, you know,
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: all on Iran's borders, So it'll be for their benefit.
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: And I think that the strikes against Jordan will probably
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: continue until that base is abandoned or not used for
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: active operations, or the Jordanians make some sort of a
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: deal with Iran to that end, And I think that's
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: kind of the only way out of the war at
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: this point. If the Arab countries around Iran decided to
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: make deals with Iran to end the war and say
• 22:25
  Speaker 6: they won't use the territory and airspace to be used
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: for attacks against Iran. Absent agreements like that in the region,
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: I think that the war will probably continue, and it
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: won't continue in a way which is favorable.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: With anybody.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: Turning now significant breaking news really happened in moments before
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: we just started. So let's go put this up here
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: on the screen breaking. The Huthis of Yemen have announced
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia quote effective immediately. Saudi
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: Arabia has until now exported about four point five billion
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: barrels per day from Yanbu in the Red z see,
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: most of it heading sound through the Bob al Mandeb
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: stread straight between Yemen and Djibouti. So this means mas,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: this has been the literal nightmare scenario. This has been
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: a significant way for Saudi Arabia's economy to remain at
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: least somewhat resilient through the Straight of Horror Moves blockade.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: With both the Straight of Horror Moves.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Blockaded and the Bab al Mandeb Straight for Saudi Arabian oil,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: this will significantly impact, as we said, four point five
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: million barrels per day that we're currently transitting through the
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: Babel Mandeb strait and actually keeping the oil market at
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: least somewhat afloat throughout this last five month period. Your
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: reaction to the significance of this, and then of course,
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: building on the strategic problems for the United States and
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: the world coming out of this announcement.
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: Well, absolutely, this is posto a worst case scenario for
• 23:48
  Speaker 6: how the war could escalate, because you know, the reason
• 23:50
  Speaker 6: the global economy is not imploded to the degree it
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: could have because of the wars, because there was this
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: pressure valve in the Baba Mandeb and the Red Sea
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: which a lot of the oil not all of it,
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: but many much of it from the region could have
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: been pumped from this pipeline across sad Arabia and then
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: through the Suez and so forth, or down through Asia.
• 24:10
  Speaker 6: That's now theoretically, if this announcement holds and they really
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: do enforce it, that option is closed now. And what
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: also is happening is sad Arabia is being brought into
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: war much more directly, whereas they've been somewhat more aloof
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: from the conflict today. And you know, I think this
• 24:26
  Speaker 6: is now a situation where the global economy, economies in
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: Asia and Europe will be very existentially threatened on a
• 24:32
  Speaker 6: short time frame, and the US also will be impacted
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: very greatly. So the fact that the war even got
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: to this point is very very alarming. And the fact
• 24:41
  Speaker 6: that the Huthis and the Iranians are now taking. This
• 24:45
  Speaker 6: step is very very dangerous because it suggests they themselves
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: have now decided that the prospect of a negotiated solution
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: is unlikely or almost impossible at this point, and they're
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: using their own nuclear option here, or their own one
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: of the highest escalatory options that they had on the
• 25:05
  Speaker 6: table that they had not deployed in the first few
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: months of the war. And I think that the calculation
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: is that if the US cannot make a diplomatic agreement,
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: if it's you know, can't be trusted, or they can't
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: have a consensus in the US system strong enough to
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: push forward with the deal, then the only other option
• 25:23
  Speaker 6: is to basically send a very very strong deterrent message
• 25:26
  Speaker 6: by destroying the global economy, destroying the US economy, and
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: making sense, basically laying down a marker that no president
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: will ever want to do this again because it was
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: so painful. If you can't make a deal, you can
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: at least inflict that lesson, and there's a very painful
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: lesson for people around the world, for people in America,
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: people in Iran as well, will suffer a lot. But
• 25:48
  Speaker 6: it seems like if they're closing the babbamn them. They've
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: decided that that's the only way out of the situation now.
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: I still always hold out hope that every escalation will
• 25:56
  Speaker 6: result in some sort of rapid diplomatic shift. And there's
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: some toxic about proposals for a new ten day deal
• 26:03
  Speaker 6: between the US and Iran, a pause and strikes to
• 26:06
  Speaker 6: talk again. We'll see how those play out, but I
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: think that they move by the Huti's suggest that the
• 26:13
  Speaker 6: odds of that are quite slim, and really everyone is
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: looking now towards the deterrence option, which will be very,
• 26:20
  Speaker 6: very painful for everybody, and could see some of those
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: worst case scenarios with oil take place within the next
• 26:25
  Speaker 6: month well.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: And part of the strategy is the global economy through
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: the oil market, and part of the strategy for Iran
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: as well is making life unlivable, punishing their own neighbors
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: who have hosted US bases, who have allowed the US
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: to use their terrain to launch strikes in some instances,
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: who have launched strikes themselves. And as part of that,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: the US is striking civilian infrastructure inside of Iran. They're
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: striking a desalination plant, for example, and the Iranians also
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Struck a Kuwaiti desalination plant. Talk about that aspect of
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: things and the significance here of these water plants and
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: what it means for the region.
• 27:03
  Speaker 6: Sure, so in the Gulf Arab States, these countries are
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: basically not habitable without these water salination plants. It's a
• 27:10
  Speaker 6: very arid, very hot environment. You need packaged goods in
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: large numbers. You need these water treatment plants which separate
• 27:18
  Speaker 6: the salt from the water and make it drinkable.
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: They need those.
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: If they didn't have them effectively, you have to abandon
• 27:26
  Speaker 6: these countries. So they're very very important in Iran, In
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: Southern Iran, it's extremely important to have these plants, and
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: some significant amount of the population relies in them. In
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: total view to the country, it's probably just a few
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: percentage points. They runs a very very large country. You know,
• 27:43
  Speaker 6: there are other sources of water. They do have water problems,
• 27:45
  Speaker 6: but you know, they have access to multiple bodies of water,
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: and a lot of their water problems are really due
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: to mismanagement, it seems like so as long as with
• 27:52
  Speaker 6: climate change, but you know, in the Gulf States it's
• 27:54
  Speaker 6: a much more extential problem for all the entire countries.
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: So if these plants were destroyed, you would have to see,
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: you know, abandonment of major urban centers. You have to
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: see maybe some countries will be literally not habitable anymore
• 28:08
  Speaker 6: in the short term. So it's really very serious escalation.
• 28:11
  Speaker 6: And I think that's also something that the Iranians have
• 28:14
  Speaker 6: said that if you go for us with the nuclear
• 28:16
  Speaker 6: option in some fashion, we can escalate to the highest
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: level with you. So they said that if you target
• 28:22
  Speaker 6: our civilian infrastructure, we will hit back proportionately, and they
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: did do that in Kuwait after their desalination plants were
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: hit in southern Iran. But I did see in the
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: last forty eight hours at least the US, as far
• 28:34
  Speaker 6: as we've seen, has not hit major civilian infrastructure in Iran.
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: After that they have been hit significant numbers of bridges.
• 28:41
  Speaker 6: No desalination plant has been hit again, at least.
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: In that time.
• 28:45
  Speaker 6: So the deterrent message of the Iranians strikes may have
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: been effective in that sense. So I do hope that
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: we don't see any more civilian infrastructure strikes because that
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: would trigger really really cashtraphic scenarios. And you know, if
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: you had a situation where you know, Dubai or cutter
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: or Kuwait is being literally evacuated and rendered an inhabitable.
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: The knock on effects for the global economy and the
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: US economy even the short term would be very, very
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: catastrophic because of the linkages there financially have been developed.
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: So really it's a threat to the entire world if
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: that would happen.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Let's put be two up there.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: This is an interview that the Foreign Minister Arachi gave
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: to local Iranian media. Here he says that the US
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: made two miscalculations. They started the war. They didn't account
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: for resistance. Quote, the Zionist regime thought that with a
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: short attack they could destroy everything. When that didn't happen,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: they were forced to stop the war. Something that he
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: expounds on pretty extensively here is specifically about the lead
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: up to the negotiation process and about zero enrichment and
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: what their goalposts that were constantly moving. We obviously covered
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: that extensively at the time. But then that this can
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: only truly end with a deal, what do you make
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: then of their position being where it is, and you
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: said previously that it's very unlikely that we actually could
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: be able to get a deal from mere assessment so far.
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, Unfortunately, it's hard to see it in
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: the short term, and I would like to be surprised
• 30:18
  Speaker 6: in that term on that point. But if you look
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: at the situation in context, Iranian signed a deal with
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: the US by a decade ago.
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: It was a huge risk.
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: The people in the system were the reformers camp was
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: took a real big gamble and they were.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Hit really hard when the deal was violated.
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: By Trump and twenty eighteen and then again last year
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: and this year they took part in negotiations with the US.
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: Aragchi himself delibered a deal to the US side which
• 30:46
  Speaker 6: was much more generous actually than the JCPOA in terms
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: of US interests. Both times, in the middle of those negotiations,
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: Iran was attacked. And that's attacking someone and killing negotiators
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: is something very extreme that was not even done by
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: beligible parties in World War Two because it was known
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: to be how damaging it is. The idea of having
• 31:05
  Speaker 6: a deal going forward, even if it's a country you
• 31:07
  Speaker 6: have far more enmity with than Iran, you wouldn't do
• 31:10
  Speaker 6: that because you may need to talk people in the
• 31:12
  Speaker 6: future and you need to have a degree of trust
• 31:14
  Speaker 6: to make those taxs tap, so that specific principle was
• 31:17
  Speaker 6: attacked during these conflicts. So despite all that, they still
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: somehow got the MoU after a few months of fighting,
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: and then the MoU immediately fell apart because it was
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: perceived that the US, immediately after signing it didn't actually
• 31:30
  Speaker 6: implement the terms and then start doing things which undermined
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: Iranian leverage in Lebanon, and then start surging more troops
• 31:37
  Speaker 6: to the region. It may it really seem like they
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: were just preparing to the ground to attack again in
• 31:43
  Speaker 6: the short term or medium term, and then from the
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: Iranian perspective, you might as well just initiate the war
• 31:48
  Speaker 6: now rather than let your leverage be depreciated. So for
• 31:52
  Speaker 6: all those reasons, it's hard to see how the trust
• 31:54
  Speaker 6: gap between the two sides it gets remedied here. But
• 31:58
  Speaker 6: I do think that there's one specific variable in between
• 32:01
  Speaker 6: which is not really promising, but it could work. And
• 32:04
  Speaker 6: I think it's what's working right now or attempting to
• 32:06
  Speaker 6: be put into effect. Is if the golf Arab states
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: issue a veto and say no, we will not allow
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: our bases to be used for war anymore, we won't
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: allow airspace to be used because we're going to be
• 32:17
  Speaker 6: destroyed if the war continues. And the whole premise of
• 32:20
  Speaker 6: their relationship with the US was that the US will
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: protect them at all times. They'll make sure that they're
• 32:25
  Speaker 6: basically Switzerland levels of peace going on here so that
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: the global economy, people can invest here, people can come
• 32:32
  Speaker 6: and live here, and so forth. And if they can't
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: defend us, then the relationship doesn't really work anymore. And
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: what's happening is the US keeps escalating the war. They
• 32:40
  Speaker 6: ran and these countries are taking a million missiles to
• 32:43
  Speaker 6: the face and drones to the face every single day
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: of the day after the attacks and create a really
• 32:48
  Speaker 6: huge warning to Dubai and Cutter and other countries in
• 32:51
  Speaker 6: the region what could happen to them.
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: So if those countries issue a veto take really strongly
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: that they will not not let the war.
• 32:58
  Speaker 6: Continue, it very difficult for the US to continue, and
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: they will take a lot of the incentive for continuing out.
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: I don't think we're necessarily there yet, but that's the
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: only path that I could see that could help. And
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: you know, there are people in the US system, like
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: the more advanced camp of people who may not have
• 33:14
  Speaker 6: the upper hand, they could use that such a shift
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: to gain advantage and push forward their view of how
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: the war could end, because if you look at the
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: way the MU fell apart, it seems like the US
• 33:24
  Speaker 6: administration was not working on the same page. Advance seemed
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: to be in favor of pushing the deal forward, creating
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: a structure with Iran which were allowed to continue. And
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: then Rubio went to Lebanon and did something which really
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: undermined and worked at cross purposes of the deal, almost automatically.
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: So I think that that dynamic could be shifted if
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: the golf Arab states were to take a very firm,
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: unequivalcal position that the war cannot continue because they will
• 33:51
  Speaker 6: not survive if it does continue.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: Lastly, maz I was wondering if you could help out
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: our friends over at Fox News who are a little
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: bit con fused about the way things have been going.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to Fox host
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Maria Bartiromo here and her confusion about the situation.
• 34:08
  Speaker 7: You know, Sentcom says that they will be outsized action
• 34:12
  Speaker 7: in retaliation, but I don't understand how it's possible that
• 34:15
  Speaker 7: Iran has the capabilities to fight this way and continue
• 34:19
  Speaker 7: to try to lash out at Gulf countries and US
• 34:22
  Speaker 7: military basis because the US has obliterated Iran's military and
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: the President continues to reiterate that.
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: Yes, and if you look.
• 34:32
  Speaker 8: At the numbers of missiles that they've been able to
• 34:35
  Speaker 8: fire off from the beginning of this war, you know,
• 34:38
  Speaker 8: late February, early March, and what they're able to do now,
• 34:41
  Speaker 8: it is very seriously degraded.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: As they say, Mas, she's so close to getting it,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: so close.
• 34:48
  Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, it's so funny because they keep in
• 34:51
  Speaker 6: the Victoria quotes there were saying that the missile capacity
• 34:54
  Speaker 6: has been degraded, you know, actually hiring missiles at a
• 34:57
  Speaker 6: steady rate after the first few days of the war
• 35:00
  Speaker 6: continuously because their a whole strategy of the war is
• 35:03
  Speaker 6: they need to fight for a very long time. It's
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: a war of patrician so they missiles used will be
• 35:09
  Speaker 6: conserved and calibrated at a certain level to preserve the
• 35:12
  Speaker 6: ability to fire.
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: For like a year or two years or something like that, indefinitely.
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: What the Iranian military capacity was not obliterated, but the
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: war they did significant damage to leadership personnel and many
• 35:25
  Speaker 6: dozens of people were killed. They destroyed a lot of
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: civilian infrastructure. The schools were destroyed, the bridges and so forth,
• 35:32
  Speaker 6: and some military bases were hit, but Iran's primary and
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: also the navy was hit very hard, which Rubio and
• 35:38
  Speaker 6: so forth been talking about a lot too. But Iran
• 35:40
  Speaker 6: was up primarily known as an air power or naval power.
• 35:43
  Speaker 6: It's a missile power and asymmetric warfare power. So what
• 35:47
  Speaker 6: they did was they built their missile bases into these
• 35:50
  Speaker 6: mountains into the country. So they knew that they didn't
• 35:53
  Speaker 6: have the ability to develop a large sophisticated air force
• 35:56
  Speaker 6: because they're under sanctions. They don't have access to the
• 35:59
  Speaker 6: huge supply chain you need to build F thirty five
• 36:01
  Speaker 6: or sixteen's. They also can really build high tech air
• 36:05
  Speaker 6: defenses for the same reason. But they did know that
• 36:07
  Speaker 6: they had geography as a tool, and they had a
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: very very large educated population of engineers and so forth,
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: So they relied on tunneling and and neeering build bases
• 36:17
  Speaker 6: into these mountains, underground and so forth that will be
• 36:20
  Speaker 6: impervious to US air attacks. And they've been firing from
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: those bases throughout the war, and that's where they're firing
• 36:26
  Speaker 6: from today and the US air attacks. It's really unfortunate
• 36:29
  Speaker 6: if you think about the US conservation of US power,
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: because they effectively did was in the early days of
• 36:34
  Speaker 6: the war, they fired very expensive, very rare standoff munitions
• 36:39
  Speaker 6: which take years to produce, and they fired them basically
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: into solid granite. And at most what they did was
• 36:45
  Speaker 6: they disabled the entrances to these bases. But then within
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: forty eight hours or a week, both thozers came and
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: reopened the entrances and build bases are operating again. So basically,
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: you fired the extremely valuable missiles you need to deter
• 36:59
  Speaker 6: China and to deter Russia and so forth, fired into
• 37:03
  Speaker 6: rock basically just to delay Iranian missile capacity. And what
• 37:06
  Speaker 6: the Iranians did over the past month during the ceasefire,
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: but more than a month, they excavated all the bases,
• 37:13
  Speaker 6: so their bases are operating in the level they have
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: been operating at.
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: Since the start of the war.
• 37:17
  Speaker 6: Now, so that's why you see these missile strikes being
• 37:20
  Speaker 6: so effective. And now also the US capacity, and I
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: mentioned earlier the radars in the region have been destroyed
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: or rendered inoperable, so the missiles are gang through further,
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: So what they're saying in the conversation.
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: It's really they've been lied to.
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: About the actual reality of how the war has been fought,
• 37:36
  Speaker 6: how much damage is done to Iran, how much capacity
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: Iran had, and how much waste was actually done during
• 37:43
  Speaker 6: the war. They just spent a lot of very vital
• 37:47
  Speaker 6: the US sets to delay and temporarily suppressed Irani missile fire,
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: did not destroyed because it's deep underground where it really
• 37:55
  Speaker 6: cannot be neutralized from the air.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of American arrogance at play here,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: not recognizing Iran as a significant industrial power, and Iran
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: is a significant scientific and technological power as well, and
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: that is certainly coming back to bite us now, Martaza,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: great to see you, Thank you so.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Much, Thanks man.
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: Thanks guys goo' see.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: So let's dig in deeper now to the global market
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: and oil specific perspective. We brought the news earlier that
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: the Houthies have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia. John
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Meerschremmer is just speaking to Chris Hedges about how significant
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: it would be if this action were taken to.
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: The global markets.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: He in fact predicted just days ago that the Iranians
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: would be very interested in moving this direction. Let's take
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: a listen to what he had to say.
• 38:40
  Speaker 9: There were about twenty million barrels per day coming out
• 38:46
  Speaker 9: of the Golf on February twenty seventh. You know, when
• 38:49
  Speaker 9: people talk about twenty percent of the world's oil came
• 38:52
  Speaker 9: out of the Golf, that twenty percent represents about twenty
• 38:54
  Speaker 9: million barrels. And since the War star we've devolved to
• 39:02
  Speaker 9: a situation where seven million barrels are still coming out
• 39:08
  Speaker 9: of Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined. So it's only
• 39:13
  Speaker 9: in my opinion, about thirteen million barrels that have been
• 39:19
  Speaker 9: bottled up in the Gulf. Now we're those seven million
• 39:23
  Speaker 9: barrels coming out of. One is that Saudi Arabia is
• 39:29
  Speaker 9: sending probably somewhere on the order of five million barrels
• 39:33
  Speaker 9: out through the Red Sea, not through the Strait of Hormuz,
• 39:38
  Speaker 9: and I would guess that the UAE is sending out
• 39:41
  Speaker 9: close to two million barrels from Fujyra, which is a
• 39:46
  Speaker 9: UAE port on the Gulf of Oman. In other words,
• 39:49
  Speaker 9: it's outside of the Strait of Hormuz. So you have
• 39:53
  Speaker 9: this roughly seven million barrels of oil. Seven million out
• 39:58
  Speaker 9: of the original twenty million that are still coming out
• 40:01
  Speaker 9: of the Persian Gulf. I think the Iranians have a
• 40:06
  Speaker 9: vested interest in shutting down the flow of oil through
• 40:11
  Speaker 9: the Red Sea, that's the Saudi Arabian oil, and shutting
• 40:16
  Speaker 9: down Fugyra. And there's some evidence they've already shut down Fugyra.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: So, Sager, we've been talking about why there hasn't been
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: a complete disaster in the oil market. I mean, prices
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: are already pretty high. They're back up over four dollars
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: a gallon for American consumers today. But one of the
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: reasons why there's been a bit of a cushion is
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: because Saudi has been able to export.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: Some through the Red Sea.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: That plus China has reduced their imports significant when we
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: would talk more about that in a moment, But if
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: that piece is going away, that could be highly significant,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: especially as we're sort of scraping the bottom of the
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: barrel here in terms of our strategic petroleum reserve.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just like lay out the picture.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: There's like two main reasons why gas is still not
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: at catastrophic levels. Although, oh, let's put see one up
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: here on the screen. I mean, as of this morning,
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: gas is right back to four dollars a gallon nationally,
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: So it's not like, you know, people got a little
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: bit of a reprieve around, Like I think the lowest
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: we saw I was like three eighty maybe three ninety.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: Wonder per gown there. How the Freedom Fuel Network is
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: doing this morning?
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we should check in, We should check in on
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: the Freedom Fuel Network. But we have four dollars a
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: gallon here nationally, and that's where things are now when
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: things have been cooled off. So there are two primary
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: reasons that things did not go absolutely catastrophic. One was
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, as you just said, approximately four point five
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: million barrels per day that were coming out of the
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: Bob Albumande Strait that they were able to export. That's
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: roughly three to four percent of the world's oil supply,
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: which the Hooties now say they will blockade. And I
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: do think it's worth meditating on this, like why should
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: we even ticket Seriously, immediately, you know, I was looking
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: here for the reaction. I was like, wow, this is
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: a literal nightmare scenario. Of course, there's a lot of
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: people they're like, well, that would only assume that they
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: have the ability to do so, and I'm like, they
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: do have the ability to do so they did it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: They literally did this years ago.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: We bombed that living hell out of them, and we
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: still were not able to stop the blockade. We both
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: Biden and Trump expended a serious amount of munitions, and
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: you know how the hoo Theis responded. They were able
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: to do so, and they even clipped an F thirty five,
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: let's not forget about that. So these are not just
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: some guys you know with RPGs in a cave like
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: this is some seriously capable gorilla force.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: It also doesn't take that much because you're relying on
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: commercial shippers. I mean you've had sailors on these cargo
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: ships who have been killed, yeah many, And then you
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: have the insurance companies that are also saying, no, we're
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: not going to ensure your cargo ship going through this
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: active war zone where a blockade.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: Has been imposed.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: So you kind of have you know, capitalism working against
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: you here as well. There's not going to be willing
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: to take the risk. And who could blame them. I mean,
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: if you're a sailor, one of these working classmen from
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: around the world who are staffing these ships, you want
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: to risk your life to run the blockade. I don't
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: think so, not at all. And you've had captains who
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: have actively been their companies that hey, you're going to
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: take this route and they said, no, I'm not doing that.
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: So we will see some of that as well, exactly.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: And then the secondary is China, and this is one
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: of the main focuses that we want to show over
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: and one let's put C two up here. For example,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: Chinese imports are beginning to rebound sharply.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: So why does this matter.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: As you guys can see from this chart if you're watching,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: is that China was importing roughly twelve million barrels per
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: day right before the beginning of the war. That plummeted
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: below six million barrels per day after the outbreak of
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: the war.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Nobody really knows why.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: The general theory is that when oil was cheap, they
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: stocked up. They have a massive strategic petroleum reserve. But
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: one of the things that we kept hammering home here
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: is eventually they will have to buy some oil. They
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: may not resume the full twelve million barrel per day
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: purchase that they were at, but a resumption in their
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: price because of their sheer size for a massive oil
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: importing nation, means it will put significant significant pressure on
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: the global oil market. Oil is a global commodity, at
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: least for now before things get totally catastrophic and you
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: have to start doing crazy stuff. Well with the Chinese imports,
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: let's put C three back there on the screen. It
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: is the single most determinative factor whenever it comes to
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: the global oil market. And so if you have two
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: primary shocks that are already coming into a shocked system,
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: and what I mean by that is the five month
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: closure of the Strait of hormones or at least disruption
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: of the Strait of hormones, then you have the Red
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: Sea and then you have China. That is primarily why
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: oil is not at two hundred dollars per barrel.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: But if it resumes buying.
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: Quote, if China buys oil again with Gusto, and this
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: is when prices were in the sixty dollars range, he predicted.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: This is Javier Blosso's the chief energy commodities analysts over
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: at Bloomberg. He said it would push the price to
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: eighty dollars a barrel, so twenty dollars a barrel rise
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: just a resumption of oil. So just to give a Matt,
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: you know, give a picture. We are currently around ninety
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: as of this morning. Things are fluctuating, obviously because of
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: the hoo They's announcement, because of the resumption of war,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: or at least seeming like there's no memorandum of understanding.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: And of course a reduction in what's happening. Ninety is
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: where put things gas right around four dollars, but if
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: you go to one, ten, one, thirty, one fifty, things
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: can get catastrophic very quickly. And then finally, really why
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: you know we should pay attention is, and I said, guys,
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: I sent this this morning. I'm not sure which element
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: it is, is that what we have currently is an
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: incredibly low stockpile, which I know we've talked about from
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: the strategic Petroleum Reserve, but secondary to that is not
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: just the petroleum reserve. It's crude oil inventories of what's
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: left in the United States, the slack in the system.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: So if you take a look at this picture, you
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: can actually see crude oil only has about forty three
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: days of supply left in the United States. That is
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: the lowest inventory in the forty five years of history
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: of taking all of the of taking inventories. That lack
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: of slack is exactly why Trump buckled in the first place.
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: Remember he said, I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: That was higher than where we are today. So forty
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: three days left of supply. Again, I'm not an oil
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: commodities guy. I've tried to learn as much as I
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: can over the last several months. The reason I understand
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: it is that obviously there's you know, there's a fluctuation
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: in how you produce oil. It's not exactly like a
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: one to one business. So you need that slack to
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: have like confidence in the market that it'll be there
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: when you order what you have. When all that gets
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: taken away, and if it runs to zero, that's when
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: stuff gets absolutely bonkers. That means just like you know,
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: for delivery time, you know, just in time delivery, except
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: it would be just basically no confidence in the market.
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: That's when export bands and all those other things might
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: come into play. Literal shortages, people just running out of stuff.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: And maybe this is all, you know, hyperbolic. I can
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: understand why someone would say that after the five months
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: of us talking about it, But I mean, at a
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: certain point, it's like this is the reason the Strategic
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: Patrolling Reserve existed in the first place, and to now
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: be at the lowest level since nineteen eighty three, you
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: just have no runway. And so I mean, we'll see,
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: that's really the only thing, because you can't look at
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: the current situation and say, oh, yeah, Trump is going
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: to blame. He definitely could at any moment, like he
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: did last time. I still think he probably has to,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: just because of the logic of where we are. But
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: he got four Americans now who were killed just in
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: the last forty eight hours, seventy two hours something like that.
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: You have no you have low inventory. I mean, what
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: if they do ground it's possible, and if they do that,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: it's it's over. There is no coming back from a
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: ground invasion of any kind. You can't just withdraw them
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: and then we take more casualties. So if we don't
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: talk them at least some point in the next two
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: three weeks, that's where we're going.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Well, and here's the other piece we haven't even mentioned,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: which is Ukraine is hitting Russian oil infrastructure as hard
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: as they possible we can to try to, you know,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: create pain for the Russians, but inherently that's going to
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: create more pain for the global economy because these markets
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: are all completely intertwined. So again Javier blast As Chart
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: of the Day. Morgan Stanley reckons more than half of
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Russian oil refinery capacity is down due to Ukrainian attacks. Typically,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: Russia is the world's second largest diesel exporter, normally around
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: eleven percent of global sea born trade. And so just
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: when we say it's a global commodity, what we mean
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: is even if you have a country that is not
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: directly buying oil from Russia, the fact that Russia is
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: producing and exporting oil is creating less pressure in the
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: market and keeping prices more in check because it's.
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: Being bought by somebody.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: So when you have also these Ukrainian attacks paired together
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: with it looks like China's increasing their buying paired together
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: with Now we've got a full blockade in the in
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Horbooz. Now we've got Yemen saying, hey,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: we're going to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red See,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: this is all looking very grim.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: I don't think there's anyone in the world who could
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: say this is the moment when the shit hits the
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: fan right. But I keep coming back to what Trump
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: said when he did Taco, when he.
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: Said we've got a few weeks left.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: He has access to presumably the best information in the world.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: So if you're thinking to yourself that there's some other
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: rabbit that he's going to be able to pull out
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: of a hat to lessen the pressure in the oil
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: market and forestall what we know eventually at some point
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: is going to happen, that would be an indication to
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: you that he does not have another rabbit in the
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: hat that he can pull out. That all of the
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: things that could be done to keep prices as low
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: as possible, which ain't that low to begin with, but
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: as low as possible without things going to two hundred
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, that has all already been done. All
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: of those levers have already been pulled. So you know,
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: we know certainly the clock is ticking. And when you
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: go back to the Iranian strategy, this is when they
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: decided to move forward with negotiations and sign the MoU
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: This was the logic that they put forward saga that
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: they thought, even if you know we have some pressure
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: release now, as long as the clock is ticking, we
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: are getting closer to the time and pressure is building
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: to the time when there will be massive global economic fallout.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: And I think if we look at that, if we
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: look at the fact that they were able to you know,
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: they were able to sell a bunch of oil, refresh
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: their coffers in terms of their finances, they were able
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: to dig out a bunch of their missile cities and
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: be able to prepare for the next escalatory attack.
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: We were not able to do the same.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: You know, we didn't spin up manufacturing, we didn't referm
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: the bases that had been destroyed throughout the region. They
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: come into this new phase of the conflict actually relative
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: to the US much stronger than they started the war
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: between all of those pieces. So you know, that's the
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: landscape that's facing all of us right now.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: I'm just looking even at the more recent strike information.
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: So Kuwate is getting hammered in the last like three days,
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: so they've had huge oil hits, water desalination, and energy.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: There's pictures of backup generators that are all being driven
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: around in Like when you start to see the government
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: bring out the backup generator, not where I want to
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: be on the back of an eighteen wheeler truck. Well,
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: this country exported zero oil for thirty days. That's three
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: percent of the total supply of the world, five point
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: six percent of the entire global oil reserve, much of
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: which the production had to be taken offline because they
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: literally couldn't export anything. And now they're getting completely hammered
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: and struck in terms of their infrastructure, where even if
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: the war ended, now they have to rebuild it, they
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: have to do all this stuff to get it out there.
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: That's just kuwait, and then we talked about Saudi Arabia.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: That's another four to five percent of the world's oil.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: Will it be blockade, We'll see, right, obviously, we'll cover
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: it here for a couple of days. The Straight of
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: horn Moves is basically closed. Yesterday literally just yesterday. Another
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: tanker is on or sorry overnight, So while we were
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: all sleeping, a tanker Greek ship got hit. Apparently there's
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: like one Greek company which continues to try to run
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: the blockade. Everybody else is like, yeah, we're good, right,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: And so you have a trickle of the number of
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: ships that are coming through, You've got ships that are
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: being struck, you got oil, infrastructure, water, desalination, and then
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: Iran has a nuclear power plant, heead, I mean, how
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: can you not look at all this and say we
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: are on the precipice Right to the Trump and Hoover
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: point whenever he was talking about the slack, I mean,
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: this is one at least benefit to the world oil
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: inventory and patroleum reserve, and all that is heavily documented.
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: You can go as we have preparing for the show.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: Just go to the International Energy Agency's website.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: They will show you what the strategic.
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: Persolu and reserve of all the participating nations is, how
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: much they've released and how much is left. We have
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: a few weeks left for what that initial strategic patrol
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: and reserve release is. There's basically no more oil left
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: in it for the critical operating levels. So there's nothing
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: left between crude oil inventory and the strategic patroleum reserve.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: We know exacts actly where it will all come from.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: You can dial things up maybe in the US. But
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: part of the problem too for Saudi Arabia, the closure
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: and for now the stoppage of straight up hornmooz oil,
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: is that means that this inventory will go faster Because
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: the Trump administration brags a lot about how we export
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: all this oil.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: We have been exporting a absolute shit pot of oil.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: But that has got to that is going to be
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: made up for in terms of orders from Japan, from Korea,
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: from all of these other nations around it. We're all
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: competing for our oil. And then you add Russia on
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: top of that for all this diesel, and then natural
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: gas in terms of Qatar and their inability to get
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: so like all of the you know, the ground is
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: set for a genuine crime. I mean, we're already living
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: in a crisis, but even more of a crisis in
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: my opinion, and I think especially this is just and
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: I try to emphasize this in our shows, but it
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: is genuinely important. A black swan event like a hurricane
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: will break us like or not just us, somewhere around
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: the world, who knows, some nation, tsunami, tornado, you know,
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: whatever they call it, the cyclone or something, it's over.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: Because if you take something like that off, then the
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: slack for Japan, for Korea, for any these other countries,
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: that's when you're broken. You have nothing left to ship
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: you right, all of the naval assets are in the Gulf.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: We didn't even bring this up in the A block
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: in terms of a potential crisis, A bunch of warplanes
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: from Germany and from rest of the world. They're going
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: to the Middle East, which means if some stuff kicks
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: off in Ukraine and Russia, we got nothing there. It's
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: gone same with all the carrier strike groups and all
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: the munitions have all been basically stripped from pey Com
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: or from from Korea, from all these air force bases.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: There is nothing that is currently there that is not
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: nailed to the ground. And so that just means, like
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: you know, everyone thinks things will kick off with just
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: because of Iran. It definitely might, you know, is what
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: we're saying. But I actually think there will be some
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: Katrina style event, not maybe either here in the United
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: States or somewhere else in the world world, or potentially
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: some sort of you know, taie want situe.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows North Thorea. It could be anything, and that.
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: Is what actually will break the entire system, because that's
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: when when you have nothing left, that's when the whole
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: world will change.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: We are redlining the global economy right now. We are
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: pushing it to its absolute limits. We are taking out
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: any sort of slack or buffer so that if you know,
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: if I mean, if we just continue in this direction,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: it's unsustainable. But if we have some sort of a
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: catastrophic weather event or other event that is unforeseen. Although
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: the weather events are kind of foreseen because we are
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: in this massive Almino cycle, but in any case something
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: that is unforeseen, then we will be in a world
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: of trouble. Last one I'll put up on the screen.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: See six rent crude crossing ninety dollars a barrel. It
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: has now gone down to like it's at like eighty
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: nine this morning, eighty eight. And this is the thing
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: that I'm like, it makes no sense to me, right,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm looking and all of these numbers. They're
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: living apparently off of the hopium of this like, oh,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: there's some ten day negotiation that's going on, and so
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: the stock market is up and the oil prices have
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: ticked back down a little bit.
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: I hope, I hope their hopium is justified, but they
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: seem to ignore every other indicator. If there's even one
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: thing that's slightly positive, will be like, I think this
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: is going to work out, And I guess they're in
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: part betting on you know that all the other traders
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: and all of the other players will also seize on
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: that hopium and act accordingly. But at some point with oil,
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: you know, there is a reality here of what exists
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: and what doesn't exist, and what is getting into the
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: global economy and what is not. So there has to
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: be a reckoning at some point. It's not like you know, SpaceX,
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: where you can just have the theory of the possibility
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: indefinitely all those SpaceX is not doing all that well either, right.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: But and even if we do get out of this,
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: we're just all going to be paying three point fifty
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: a gallon for forever, I mean, at this point, for
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: the rest of Trump's presidency. So it's not going down,
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: you know, significantly anytime too. Actually, even saw with the
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: memoriam of understanding how loaded it get three eighty right,
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a preview of what it's going to
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: be like for a long long time.