Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 7 Betting Preview

Transcript

NFL Week 7 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. Your Favorites Trio back
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: at it Group Hug, we missed each other. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: joined by the one and Only Stucky and Kendrim Middleton.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: On today's episode, We've got our plant the Flag game
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: for week seven, a breakdown of the top storylines. We
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have a fired head coach in the NFL, and of
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: course the main event Evan Abrams and his Tuesday primer.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: But before we get to the important stuff, guys, how
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: do we feel about uncrustables as adult snacks? I crushed
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: one of these before the episode, feeling great. I basically
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: eat like a five year old because I just eat
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: whatever my kid eats when I'm out the door. And
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: as you can see, not at the house today. Is
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: this an acceptable adult snack?
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: I don't miss.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Yes, I don't.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: I don't mess with encrust but my wife likes them.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: Who we're on vacations, she always has them. Uh. But no,
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: I can't say. I don't think I've ever had one. Yeah,
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: I've never had an uncrustables like peanut butter and jelly.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Right, it's literally a peanut butter and jelly. I don't
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: eat them because I'm way too like holistic, healthy hippie
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: stuff when I'm not like filming for a restaurant. But
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: if they're good enough for the NFL, they're good enough
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: for the Favorites podcast.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Is there any Is it just peanut butter.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: And jelly, strawberry and I think they have a cinnamon
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: sugar one.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they are starting to add a bunch. They got
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: a honeywell jella. I think so there's some uh, there's
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: some different options out there. But yeah. The thing is
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: is that you have you do have to layer in
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: some patience because it stays in the freezer and then
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: you have to It's not like you pop it in
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the microwave. You have to wait until that thing falls out.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: David Paint, our producer, says, butter it and fry it you.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, Eric Ryot, that sounds so good, David, Wow, genius.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: I don't eat those things. But next time I go
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: to Costco, I might buy the like no sugar added,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: like for like the gluten free weird kids. I might try,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: hey do having my Costco.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: No, we had no show on Sunday night, we had
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: a lot to bemoan a lot to celebrate. Would have
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: been kind of all over the place, but you two
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: had eventful weekend. So Kendra, catch me up before we
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: get into the nitty gritty.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: I came home this weekend for the Jaguars game. I
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: told you guys they were gonna lose. I knew that
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: that's exactly the way that game was going to go.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: It was such a nice day though, and I ate
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: sadness tailgate hot dogs, So I guess it was a
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: fine weekend. I just that went exactly how I thought
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: it would. But it was fine. I was glad to
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: be home, took my mom to dinner. It's all good.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Stuck you what do I you? You had a big
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: baby shower.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a complete degenerate weekend. I'd family and
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: friends in town. And because our baby showers are just
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: a party at the bar.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I'm always bar for nfl uh from noon until close,
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: but Saturday people come in. So I went out Saturday
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: and then Sunday, so it was.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: You you can definitely hear it in the.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: Town well, and then also the last two nights and
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: I have to catch up on everything that happened. And
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: so I also haven't slept the last two nights after that,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: so uh, well that's a lot I should I did.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: I did sleep Sunday night, but I didn't sleep last night.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it was definitely hurt my wing.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: But you need a ginger ale and a til at all.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: How many times I.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Don't get I don't get bad hangovers, especially.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Because you don't sleep. You can't have a hangover unless
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: you fall asleep.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: But like I've always always been good about that, like
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: my everyone else in my family, like my brother will
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: when if he drinks, will be down for like three days,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: but I don't do it. Yeah, so I'm actually good
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: on that front. But obviously it gets uh gets harder
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: with age.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: But you have a trick, a trick for us hangover types.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: I do just I tak a town all. You took
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: a town all before you go to sleep. I don't
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: even know if it's is that that's not maybe not
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: medical advice or you're not supposed.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: To do that.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: But but the main thing is you mixing waters. I
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: always tell people mixing water like as a joke, but
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I actually do mix in some waters. And yeah, and
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: the other thing is I always tell people this that
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: like people will always wake up wouldn't have a hangover. Though,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: this is just a it's a natural reaction, natural reaction
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: in your body to have anxiety. But I always try
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: to tell people, like, no one is thinking about you,
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: no one is thinking about what you said or did.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: And try to think about ten years ago when you
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: drank and you were like, oh my god, I'm horrified,
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: but you don't even remember it. Try to do it
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: about a year ago. So if anyone ever has like those,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: just calm down. It goes away. It's just a natural reaction.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: But yeah, eat a breakfast in the morning. I mean,
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: it's just the most generic advice. But I make sure
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: that I do mix in some waters and then pop
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: an advill.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And just dying over here. I didn't know we were
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: gonna get anxiety advice. I think that's even more important
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: than the hangover itself.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: I love Stucky. I ride from Stucky. I swear to God.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: When we first like got paired together, I was like,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I'm gonna feel about this. I
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: live and die for this. This is so funny.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: You didn't know you were gonna think, Wow.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: I'm just being honest. Yeah, I'm scared of men.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Well hopefully, hopefully we don't scare your hero on this podcast.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Let's get thro our main dish. I want to start
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: by apologizing, I'm sorry. I am truly sorry. This is
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: my own version of a Tim Tebow's speech. I promise
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: that for the rest of this season, you will never
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: see another podcast host work as hard as I will
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: work to get these picks right. Saints plus three and
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a half the only leg of our two Kings and
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: a Queen parlay to not come home. And it pains
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: me because otherwise I had a very good Sunday, but
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that would have been the whipped cream and the cherry
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: on top, and and that's that's ultimately what we drive
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: towards throughout the week on this podcast. And and I
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: let us down, So hand up on that one.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Well, as long as you continue to do some head
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: to head bets with me and pay them off, I'm
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: I'm okay with you.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: With Thankfully we did not have a bet on the
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Patriots and the Saints because I would have lost that
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: head to head. Also, because Kendra was on the New
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: England Patriots last night, I was on Atlanta's I think
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a few of us were on this podcast. Stucky's been
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: a big Falcons guy for the last couple of weeks.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: The defense shows up big number one in d v
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: o A entering Monday night. I can't imagine that that
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: slipped after that performance, Stucky, this has been your squad
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: for the last few weeks. So are you I would
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: assume that at this point you're buying into what they're producing.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, their defense is significantly improved, mainly because
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: some of the rook the rookies that they brought in, uh,
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: but they're so they're able to generate some pressure. But
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: one of the they're one of the heaviest blitz teams
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. And if you look back, I've talked
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: about this a bunch on this podcast and on the
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: Action Network podcast with Chris Raybond that you're never really
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: going to stop Josh Allen, But if you look back
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: historically at his numbers, the best way to contain him
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: and slow him down is he play zone and you
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: blitz a lot. And they blitzed fifty six percent of
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the time last which is a super high rate. It's
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: the highest the ballot has seen in any game in
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: four years because you just can't. You saw it in
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: the first touchdown and then they learned quickly, like they
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: just sat back in his zone. They didn't bring any
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: extra pressure. And then if you give Valent time, he's
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: either going to find a running lane or he's gonna
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: find someone open. And but if you bring pressure, uh,
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: you can you can throw that offense off. So and
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: the Bills defense right now has major issues. I mean
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: that's safety. Their rundy is is bad, like it's it's
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: they're not playing that well. I mean, he looked back
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: the past couple of weeks that they were in a
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: dog play with the Dolphins at home in the Saints
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: they lose his touchdown plus favorites against the Patriots, So yeah,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: they need to get healthy too. So Dubibie came at
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: the right time. But yeah, I'm super bullish on this
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: Falcons team. The offense is great, keep if their offensive
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: line is really it was one of the best in
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: the NFL. But they did lose Jake Matthews for that
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: second half, and then they already lost Caleb McGarry the
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: right tackle, So that could be something to keep in
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: mind with Jeon Robinson is argue, maybe the best back
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: in the NFL right now, and you know they have
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: the weapons on the outside, and it's with this defense.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Like before it was the defense can never It would
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: just let them down right. There was nothing the defense
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: could do because they couldn't generate any pressure. That's one
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: of the biggest differences this year. They actually can get
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: pressure and they're a little bit more talented on that
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: side of the ball. So if Penix continues to progress,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: it's definitely a dangerous team.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Falcons plus two and a half over on DraftKings against
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers Sunday Night Football, back to back
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: primetime games. We usually like to sell high on these
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: teams that everybody starts to buy into off of prime time.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: The forty nine ers are so banged up right now.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: They just lost Fred Warner. They're a tough team to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: back at this point. Kendra, anything percolating as far as
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: that game goes or takeaways from Monday Night Foot, I'll
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: let you take that in whatever direction you want.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: My biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football is that I
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: can't do the doubleheaders anymore. I think I complain about
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: this every time that it happens it much. It's not
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: even that because when we're sitting here watching red Zone
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: and you know, you've got your couple different screens, you're
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: spreading the games out whatever. It's all fine. It's just
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: I want them to add more to the four o'clock slate,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: or you know, take a couple games out of the
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: one o'clock, add more to the four o'clock, give us
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: the traditional primetime football. I've been watching way too many
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: screens throughout the day. By the time that rolls around,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: when it's commercial time, I want to go get a
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: drink of water. I want to go take a pee,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: I want to do whatever. By the time Monday night
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: rolls around, I don't want to have to be flipping
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: between the two have the multi view up. I want
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: to watch one game. That being said, the Falcons impressed me.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: I think I'm more so just so shocked that the
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Bills just sucked. I think that they're a bad team.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: I think that they might be a bad team. It's
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: basically Josh Allen, a couple players on defense, and then
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: question mark of who is going to show up outside
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: of the tight ends every single week Bears commanders. I
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: think the Bears are kind of good. Commanders are pretty
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: much who I thought they would be. Expected a sophomore
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: slump from this team just in general. Knew that dan
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Quinn probably would just have like a fall from grace,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: But I just my biggest takeaway from Monday Night Football
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: is that I'm sick of the double headers and I
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: can't do it anymore.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: My problem with the doubleheaders is that, uh, like, there's
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: there's so many bad teams in the NFL that when
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: you do these double headers, you're it. It just makes
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: one of the Sunday windows so much worse. Like last
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: week at the four o'clock window was three games and
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: it was Bengals Bengals, Packers, Titans, Raiders, and then the
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: Niners Bucks. It was an awful window. Terrible this week
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: because you have I mean you're you have and Lock.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: You throw a London game in there there too, which
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: is one of the better games, the weekend Rams Jags,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: and then you have two the Sunday night games, the
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: dcent one Falcons Niners, and your Monday Night game is
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Bucks Lines and Texan Seahawks. Like those are some of
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: the better games on the slate. So the one o'clock
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: slate this week is Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Patriots, Titans, Panthers, Jets, Saints, Bears,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: and Eagles Vikings. Like Eagles Vikings is the only the
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: only teams that are above five hundred that are playing
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: each other. And uh, I don't know. I mean, like
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: watching this Eagles offense and if it's J. J. McCarthy
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: or Carson Wentz, it's not like that's the must see TV. So,
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: like you have these windows now Sundays that are getting
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: that are just a little worse than they maybe should
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: be because we're agreed to the NFL and they meet,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: they want their their two Monday night games. So that's that. Like,
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: that's my biggest beef with it too, is that you
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: were losing like a good game or two on on
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: Sunday at one or four.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's compounded by the fact that you have
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: a London game as well, so the Witch when you
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: have double I think they need. That's probably the move
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: that should be made is pick one, either have the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning game and then one Monday night game or
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: two Monday night games, no early Sunday game.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: I think myself, right, it's not like Week one one,
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: where I get I get it if you want to
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: do a week one, but it is what it is.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: There's lines and we will try to bet on them
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: and find winners. But yeah, it was a good weekend
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: betting for me. But who cares. We're on to Week seven.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Amen to that. Baker Mayfield now emerging as a good
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: MVP a bet plus four fifty. He's still third shortest
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: odds in the market thirty three to one though at
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, so you've missed that window entirely, Kendra,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Is he your MVP right now?
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I feel like yeah, I mean it's hard to argue
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: against him. They've had a lot of injuries and they
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: just seem to keep finding ways to get it done.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I think with the status of a booger right now,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: could potentially mess up this offense, but they have tape
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: on him now, so like that doesn't even really matter
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: to me that much. As far as just what we've
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: seen so far this season, I don't really know how
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: you argue against the odds, So yeah, yeah, I guess.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: So.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Jamie Ardall was all over it. She was all
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: over Baker Mayfield to start the season, So kudos to.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Her stuck here? Are you surprised that he's still behind
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Alan and Mahomes? That was as of yesterday. I would
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: actually assume I'm going to check the most up the
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: date odds right now as we speak, but he still is.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: He's still behind Mahomes and Allen. I don't quite get
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: that with how he's performed.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think that he's If the season
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: ended today, he would win it. He would be my MVP.
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, think about all the game, the clutch moments
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: he's had too, all the final minute drives. He's pushing
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: the ball down the field and doing it with success.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: And then consider all the injuries at the offense is too,
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: like the offensive line, all the receivers now, Bucky Irving,
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: and he's still continuing to play at a super high
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: level now. And the good thing is that the defense
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: isn't great, which means like if the Bucks are gonna
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: keep winning, they're gonna have to keep putting up points,
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: which means he's gonna keep putting up numbers. I could see.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: I could see the case for Mahomes though. I mean
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: that offense the last two weeks has looked really good.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: You're gonna get Rashie Rice back this week, and like
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: he's throwing the ball down field again. Like his numbers,
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: his advanced metrics is a dot. Everything looks like it's
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: like twenty twenty two again. And now you're gonna get
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: Now you're gonna have a healthy set of weapons. And
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs I think are probably gonna get hot here
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: with their with their offense. I still think the defense
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: has some holes. So like Mahomes is gonna have to
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: put up some numbers, and like there were there have
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: been seasons where you could argue, like Mahomes is the
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: MVP of the league, right, and but he wasn't gonna
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: win it because just you would have either lamar around
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: putting up silly numbers. So if he just has a
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: really good year and then Baker falls off a little bit,
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: like there's you've got to remember this is like a
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: human award, right, Like it's not like just here's the
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: stats and here's what has to happen. There's a lot
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: of it is name recognition, but there's you know, there
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: might just be like, hey, let's get Mahomes his third
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: MVP if he has a really good year, because I
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: think he's what he's won in twenty eighteen and then
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, So that's probably the other.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Name about Daniel Jones. Like, weirdly enough, if it wasn't Baker,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I would put Daniel Jones above Allen and Mahomes right now.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Peronly issue with Daniel Jones. But I think I'll try.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: To what you said. I'm kidding.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'd give it to Jonathan Taylor ahead
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: of Daniel Jones. That's my problem with DJ.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're back by the way, Bijon should be in
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: the conversation at least like he's not going to win
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: it as.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: A uh can't sustain it though I don't think yeah,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: but like.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: He's as of right now, I'm saying he should at
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: least be mentioned, like I mean he's two and thirty
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: eight scrimmage yards, yes, say the last game that he played,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: I think he had two hundred and something.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: Like Uh, Rico dowdellco Daddle. Yeah, conversation, we're Rico Donald
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: Truther podcast.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: I do want to get to the slate. We've got
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: our plant the Flag game. I want to do a
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Thursday night pick as well, since by Thursday's episode some
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: of that information can be outdated, so we want to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: get something on the card early for that. But before
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: we move on from the headlines, the main dish, Briank
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Callahan is out as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Stucky,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: you were addicted to this team, linelast year they let
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: you down time and again, your hands off. I believe
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: you even went into therapy for this. Are the Titans
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: now biddable?
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: Possibly? I mean they're still really bad, but I mean
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: callaham was so bad that he would cost them multiple
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: times a game that and I think that was part
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: of the reason why the market could never catch up
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: to how bad Tennessee was. Their offensive line is now
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: healthy at least, but Calvin Ridley has now banged up
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: their defense as a couple of injuries on the edge.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean they're a little bit more intriguing,
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: but it's still not a great team. But I uh, yeah,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: they've been in bet jail. They're my one bet jail
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: team for the past couple of weeks.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: One week stuck, he wasn't on them, he shot on
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: me and I took the Titans and they Cardinals.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Yes, but they were also they should have been now
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: twenty eight six in that game, so I wasn't too
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: upset that I didn't have them. I didn't have them
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: last week against the Raiders, so yeah, I might. I'm
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: a little more intrigued by them, is what I'll say
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: than I was before, because Callahan was, I mean, like
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: four and twenty against the spread, whatever it was is
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: beyond It's incomprehensible that you could be that in an
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: NFL market. So yeah, a little bit more intriguing, but
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: not a team. I'm like running, like knocking, knocking, deb
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: through doors to get my money down on.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: But we doubted you, We doubted you, but I.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Thought you'd be all the way back in kender Do
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: you want to say, Kendrick, do you want to save
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: your take on this for plant plant the flag? Or
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: do you want to let it fly now?
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: No, we can save it, okay.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. And
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: that's not all. DraftKings is also giving away three months
• 19:56
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• 19:59
  Speaker 1: use the promo code favorites when signing up with DraftKings again,
• 20:03
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• 20:06
  Speaker 1: dollars and get three hundred back in bonus bets. If
• 20:08
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• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the crown is yours. Before we get to Thursday Night football, Stucky,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: give us a Tuesday night bet in college football so
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: that we can keep the good fortune rolling. But I
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: want you to explain it to us in NFL terms
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: that we can understand.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: FIU plus ten against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is sort
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: of like the Bucks. I guess they have a bunch
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: of really close wins this year against some bad teams
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: that also had injuries. I mean, this is a team
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: and some misleading finals. Like they've returned it onside kick
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: at the end of the game against Nevada, but they
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: were losing in the fourth quarter of that game. They
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: were losing in the fourth quarter against Missouri State. It
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: was not a very good team and lost their star
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: quarterback in the second half. So this team has just
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: been very very fortunate. Good offense, bad defense, and FIU
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: that is coming off a blowout law they look horrendous
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: at the UK company. If that's seventeen days off new staff,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: I think that's beneficial to clean some things up. But
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: I just don't this Western talking team is. I don't
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: trust them to win by significant margin, so I think
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: it's a good time to fade them. So I'm taking
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: FIU and Keon Jenkins, who was their quarterback. So it's
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: as if like the Bucks would be, you know, ten
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: point favorites over.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Kind of like when they played the Jets.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Maybe, yeah, similar to that's covered well.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering out there, how can he how can
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Stucky operate in that sleep? But why doesn't this guy
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: lay his head on his pillow at night? That explanation
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: is exactly why doesn't happen because he knows such things. Also,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Pitbull basically owns FIU for what it's worth. Soon Yeah,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Steelers Bengals. Steelers favor by five and a half on
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, totals sitting at forty two and a half.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: The Steelers have won and covered three straight. The Bengals
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: covered on the road, much to my chagrin against Green Bay,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: but they still have a negative eighty point differential. That's
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: number one or number thirty two. Rather in the NFL.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Flacco has made their offense slightly better, But is it
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: enough to get you to the window? Stucky where you
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: at on Thursday night?
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: Maybe? I mean, my numbers say to play Cincy, so
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: I might get down there. I might get there. Small.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: I generally hate Thursday night football, so don't I usually
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: don't bet it big Cherry Hendrickson that got banged up,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: and like he is the only good defender on Cincinnati,
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: so that's noteworthy. We're doing this before any injury reports.
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: But Pittsburgh, I mean, Pittsburgh is a team that I
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: am looking to fade, like they've just coming up in
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: the next Maybe it's this week, maybe it's the next
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks. Because and the Steelers do this every year.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: They get off to a hot start, then they fade
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: at some point. And this year, like they beat the
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: Jets Week one, the winless Jets, they should have lost
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: that game. Then you know, they lost by two touchdowns
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: at home to the Steelers. They did win in New England,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: but New England had five turnovers. New England should have
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: won that game. And then they beat the Vikings and
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: Carson Wentz in London, by three, and then they beat
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: Dylan Gabriel in a horrendous spot last week, like right,
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: they were coming off of a bye, it was a
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: rookie quarterback on the road after being overseas, and then
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: Brown's had a ton of injuries during that game. So yeah,
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: I think the Steelers a very fraudulent four and one,
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: although their defense is getting healthier, but still like now
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: they're length five and a half on the road again
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: since he maybe Flacco now has a little bit more
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: timeouts a short week, which is in an ideal, But
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: to remember, this is a guy that came in to
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: the offense and to the whole operation, like in the
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: middle of the week last week, like the whole new
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: playbook called new Players. So I think as time goes on,
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: it's gonna get a little more comfortable. He's still not great,
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: he's still you know, old, but it's better than what
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: Jake Browning was putting out there. So yeah, from a
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: numbers perspective, this is a since he played for me
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: a couple of injuries. I want to watch probably have
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: it small, but I would like to get a six
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: at this I don't know if we'll get it, though.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Kendrew you in on it.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: I am probably on the under in this game, if anything,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: divisional game. I think both the Steelers have once eat
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: like you said, fraudulent four and one fraudulent for in one.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: I don't believe in that offense as much as they
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: showed a like decent amount of spark earlier or two
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: days ago on Sunday. I just I can't get behind
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: them being like a juggernaut of an offense. The ben
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: still lots of questions. I think once Joe Flacco probably
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: has the opportunity to learn the playbook more, it might
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: look a little bit better. More so just that it's
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: a divisional game to me, and you have two seventy
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: five year old men playing quarterback, so love those love.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: The that fields. The oldest quarterback matchup.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: It could be.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Gotta be, yeah, gotta be.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: It could have been a brady.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: On on the Flacco front. I mean, how many times
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: in his career now has he played against the Steelers,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean he's played for every team in
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: the AFC North except for Pittsburgh, so he's definitely accustomed
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: to this matchup as far as the short week goes.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: And still not having a lot of time to really
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: acclimate himself. This is about the best matchup he could
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: ask for in terms of familiarity.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. I didn't think about that,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: but yeah.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: That works both ways though too right, I mean Tom
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: because Tomlin has been there forever. Oh, Brady was forty
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: three and Breeze it was forty two and twenty one.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: That's the oldest ever.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, so I am. I'm not betting this personally, and
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty much with you guys as far as the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Steelers are frauds, but I placed a bet on them
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl this morning. Hear me out.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Hear me out. Oh, it's not like I actually think
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: they're going to win the Super Bowl. I just think
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: the number is crazy. The offense doesn't look particularly good.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: The defense is an elite, but between Rogers TJ. Watt,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: the mediocre play that we're seeing out of the AFC.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: If they're in a critical situation late in the playoffs
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: against these against like the Jaguars, if they meet them
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: in Jaguars.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: The Steelers don't even the Jaguars podcast. The Jaguars own
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: the Steelers and the Colts. Colts haven't won in Jacksonville
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: in over a decade, missed me with the.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Steelers are thirty. The Steelers are thirty to one to
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. They're the two seed in the AFC.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: They might have a first round by they're going to be.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Kicking a knife out of my back that you just
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: stabbed in and did pretending to be a fake Jags
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: fan this whole time. Not miss me. Uh uh ain't
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: a way.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: The funny thing is, yesterday I placed a Super Bowl
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: bet on the Ravens, so uh hear me, I said
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: I was gonna do it one in five. They're gonna
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: get healthier after the buye their schedule now they had
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: one of the hardest schedules so far. Now they're gonna
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: have one of the easiest schedules. To Steelers, schedule gets
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: a lot more difficult. And this is basically like can
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: the Ravens chase down Pittsburgh they play him twice in December?
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Their schedule gets easier, Steelers it gets more difficult, Like
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Lamar's gonna be back after the buy their defense, you
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: get healthier. I'm trusting in that organization to not like
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: sign or trade for someone like can they go get
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: just throwing a name out of here, But like, could
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: they go get like a Dexter Lawrence or someone like that,
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: like an impactful See de Way like someone like that,
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: because without Montabuk they need it. But yeah, I think
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: this is just the bottoming of the market on Baltimore.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: I'm just trying to time it. And like, so if
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: they would they come back and win the division, you know,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: then they're going to be in like six seven, nice ticket,
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: So yeah.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I would. I think that maybe that's just that's the
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: general advice here is like just find if you think
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: that there's value on someone in the AFC, just buy them.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, think about it, whether it's the Ravens working
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: their way back up into the mix, or the Steelers
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: ticket that I purchased this morning. The playoffs right now,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: the Colts is the one seed, the Chargers are the
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: three seed, the Patriots, the Bills, the Jags, the Broncos.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Which one of those teams can you not beat? Especially
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: if you have home field advantage in the playoffs?
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: The jarl beatable is the Jags podcast you keep forgetting.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: That Privates, I can't believe. I cannot believe you have
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: done this to us.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Hey, let's you know what, we can always add to
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: the ticket. Okay, we can.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: We can disappointed.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: I will not be. I will not be investing in
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: the Steelers in the Bowl, but.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: I Jaguars fourteen to one to get the one seed.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: That's also possible. All right, time to plant your flag
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: present by draft Kings. Shut up, I'm.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: Trying to plant my flag here.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Let's
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: go around the horn here, Hendra, We'll start with you.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Where are you planning that flag? This week?
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: I am gonna go with the Titans on the seven
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: and a half. I have to. Okay, they just fired
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: their coach. I told you guys a couple weeks ago
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: that whoever the first team to fire their coach was,
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: I would get on them the following week. There's always
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: an amount of get up. It's a fake revenge game
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: for vrabel Way, why is that fake? Because I with
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: you just picked against the Patriots. You just talked about
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: how much you didn't like them last week.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: This this, I mean honestly, had I even thought about
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the fact that they were heading into Tennessee the following week,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I would have probably doubled down on the Saints, which
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: would have been a horrendous decision in hindsight. But this,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: this is one variable's gonna have guys ready to go.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's over a touchdown in the NFL, the
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: week after a team fired their coach, it's got to
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: be a.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: Third trade road game, third trade road game two for
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: New England, which is noteworthy. Yeah, it over a touchdown.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: I couldn't it's New England. I mean, it's Tennessee or nothing.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: For me.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: This is a tough week so far. I haven't even
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: bet anything yet. There's a lot of injuries to monitor.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: I'm still going through every game, but I'll plan my
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: flag on Minnesota. I mean, this Eagles team as a
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: road favored or I don't even know the quarterbacks gonna
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: be for the Vikings this week, but they still haven't
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: announced if it's going to be McCarthy or Wentz. But
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: they should be healthier coming out of the by like
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: they had a ton of injuries, like Bankinkle should be
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: back their offensive line and a ton of injuries. They
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: should be much healthier there. And this Eagles team is
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: just a mess right now. Like I there were laying
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: points in Minnesota against Flores with a banged up offensive line,
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: an offense that looks completely broken. I mean they need
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: to get to a bye week and figure some things out.
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: And then defensively, Jalen Carter is banged up, Quinnon Mitchell
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: got hurt, the rest of that unit is not playing
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: very well. Uh, Minnesota off the by great staff, one
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Yeah,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: I'll play my flag on the Vikings.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I did already bt the Vikings at plus two and
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: a half, so I'm with you on that. I don't
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: think are we at the point now where Carson Wentz
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy The line doesn't move an inch depending on
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: who the quarter is.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I think Carson Wentz is better. I still stand on that,
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: and that's saying a lot.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: I think Gurds Wentz is better right now. There's a
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: wider I mean, there's more variance with McCarthy. It's like
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: we think there's a lot we just still don't know.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: But like, yeah, I think Once is better than McCarthy
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: right now. There's a wider range of outcomes that McCarthy
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: plays like.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: But in terms of spread value, I don't think the
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: and I don't think based on.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: The marginal, Like it's not like this would go to
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: three or anything. So yeah, I think it's very marginal.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: Maybe there's a group or someone with a lot of
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: market influence money who does have a really strong opinion
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: on that, But for me, I mean it's like a
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: half point difference.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: So would you advise waiting for the three though for
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: people that are listening to this, or do you think
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: it never gets there?
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think it would ever get the three, So.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: I tend to agree Raiders plus eleven and a half,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: planting my flag on that one. I was surprised to
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: see this touch twelve yesterday. It's back down to eleven
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and a half. The Raiders always play the Chiefs well.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: It was nice to see some signs of life from
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Gino in company, even if it was against the horrendous
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. But this is more of a fate of
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City selling high on a team that now everybody's
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: bought back in on major letdown spot against the division
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: rival over ten points. Raiders auto play. I mean, we
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: brought this up last week that this was probably going
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: to be a play on the Raiders today. Any pushback
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: from anybody, I mean, you're going.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: To get Rice back, so they ken the I mean,
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: the Raiders are going to play their zones, are going
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: to try to prevent explosives. They might be able to
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: run the ball a little bit because the Chiefs Rundy
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: has not been great. But but man, that I mean,
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: I would have loved I would love if Bowers played,
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: And I don't know if he's he's gonna play, so
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: that hurts, and you don't have your left tackle, which
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: still really hurts. They're offensiven like even against Tennessee they
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: only average but like four yards per play last week.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I would love it if the Bowers played.
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: But I don't think he will because if you look
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: at the Raiders schedule, I mean, they're in desperation, so
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: maybe he will, but they're they're two and four because
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: they have the Chiefs then a bye week, so like,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: if you're looking at it from the franchise's perspective, you
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: don't play him this week, you have an eck. You
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: basically have three more weeks for him to get healthy.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: So that's the only thing that I would note. But
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: I think your logic makes sense.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: In his sound, I almost fell off my chair just
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: now appreciate you guys coming back around on me after
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: all that jag stuff. All right, for yourself, this is
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: your last chance, Kendrick before before I officially tag this
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: with our DraftKings sponsorship. Are you sure you want the Titans?
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Are you bullying me right now?
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Raiders? You can't bully about the Titans.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do love, I do loa, I will say
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: always love the fired the coach angle, so you do
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: have that the worst.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Coach of all time you fired?
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: So yeah, a monkey could call plays better than him.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Uh So, here are your Plant the Flag Games presented
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: by DraftKings. Kendra is on the Titans plus seven Stucky
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: as the Vikings plus two and a half, and I
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: am on the Las Vegas Raiders plus eleven and a half.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: The dogs are barking this week. Now time for our
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: main event. No betting week can start without it. It's
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: the primer courtesy of the Voice of God, Evan Abrams. Evan,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. When is the last time you
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: had an uncrustable.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: That's actually a really good question. It's been a few years.
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: They're very tasty. They are good road trips snacks.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: I will give you that.
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: So that's probably where I stand there. The deep fry
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: of a of an uncrustable feels like a very very
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: dangerous game.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if I'll be playing that boo.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: That seems very Maybe Halloween, I don't know, maybe we
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: could do something stupid.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I'm sure that if if you were to go to
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the Texas State Fair for ou Texas, I'm sure that
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: they've done that already. They were frying mayonnaise this past weekend.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: Snickers fried Snickers is a good idea.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Before.
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I've heard that.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: It's amazing. Actually, I'm serious. It's like I didn't know
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: what to expect, but it was like the best thing
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: I've ever tasted in my life.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Really, how does it not melt?
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: That's a good question.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know the science behind it.
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: But encapsulated in the fried bread, Kendra, that's obviously how
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: do you not know that?
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: God, idiot?
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: Have you had fried butter Evan, I've tasted it? Yes,
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: it's good, right, it's absurd.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, like you feel you don't want to be
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: eating it because it's like I'm just you're basically eating
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: a like a worst version of stick of butter. Because
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: then it's just fry.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: But it's it's diabetes.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: Man, it's hard to sounding.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: That sounds like a heart attack. But I did you
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: like the road dog angle of the young crustable? All right, Evan,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: what are we looking at? What are the trends we
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: need to be aware of.
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: I'll give you two so off the bat, that kind
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: of back up what you guys are talking about prior
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: to this. So the Mahomes angle, obviously they're laying eleven
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: and a half this week as a favorite above a
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: touchdown since twenty twenty, the man is thirty six and
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: two straight up, but thirteen twenty four and one.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: Against the spread as that big of a favorite.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: The thirty six and two best in the NFL, the
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: thirteen twenty four and one worse than the NFL, and
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: that's something we've seen recently. The best note is this
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: above a touchdown favorite since twenty twenty, he's thirty and
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: oh straight up versus anyone not name the Raiders.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: So both his.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: Losses Christmas Day one of them.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Christmas Day, and you know everyone's opening presents and
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs can't get to fourteen points.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: We alle at.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: The other fired angle I'll give you this one, so
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: I think more impactfully, I looked last decade, just since
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: twenty sixteen, most recently so Callahan twenty third coach fired
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: prior to twenty two.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Teams listen just ten and.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: Twelve straight up, eleven to eleven ats next game, even home,
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: it's pretty much even ground. I think the one angle
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: you would look at is the team that fires the
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: head coach. Twenty eight percent straight up, thirty six percent
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: against the spread before the firing, goes up about seven
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: per six six seven percent straight up, but twelve percent
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: against the spread after the firing. So the teams end
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: up do finding themselves a bump in whatever stretch left
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: of the year they have the game after here or there.
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: Sample size a little bit small, I will say this,
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: the line of seven on the game decently large for
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: after a coach getting fired, especially at home. Those numbers
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: kind of point towards Tennessee getting the cover. But either way,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: the bump it does exist.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Interesting, So do you think that that's just been overrated
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: over the years? Has that become a pregame show narrative
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: more than an actual betting angle.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: I think the cause of the bump for the rest
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: of this season is something noteworthy because you had to
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: be bad enough to get fired in the first place,
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: and usually that impacts straight up more than against the spread.
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: But that number ats prior of thirty six percent, that's terrible.
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: So to get back to fifty percent after the firing
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: of forty eight percent, that twelve percent delta is noteworthy.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: Like the team gets better.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so you.
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: Number one, you're you're probably bottomed out, so like there's
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: nowhere to go about ut. Generally speaking, if you're a
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: coach that got fired, you're more than likely not a
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: bad coach, and that's the case with Callahan. And then
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: also there's just hey, you bring in a new regime.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: You are a bad team, right, you were. You had
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: to have a really really bad record to get fired,
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: So that means that you were probably doing some things
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: that were not ideal for your team schematically or using
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: your players. Right, So you get a new voice in there,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: they might listen to the players. They're going to try
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: some new things. That's more applicable to the first game
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: with a new coach. Right, So there might be some surprises,
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: right that the Patriots aren't expecting that you might you
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: that the Tennessee might try and then will break tendencies
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: of what they've been doing. But I think there's there's
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: definitely a lot behind why a team would improve the
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: rest of the way the.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Law is sound for why anyone and Kendra is wanting
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: to back the Tennessee Titans. My issue with it is
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: that is the other side of the angle, and I'm
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: curious if there are any numbers behind this, Evan, because
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: you have Mike Rabel coming into town who was fired
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: by the Tennessee Titans. So if we're talking about aggressiveness
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: late in the game to prove a point against a
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: bad team, Mike Rabel's probably gonna do that. This is
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: a throat on the jugular kind of game, I would think,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: So I'm curious if there's anything on coaches that are
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: facing the team that previously fired them.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think you'd be small enough sample.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: I'm literally staring at all of the coaches who have
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: faced the new coach after the fired I just don't,
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: you know, to cross reference to see if the team
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: had faced them. I haven't done that yet, But to
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: my standpoint, I believe that the bump is there no
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: matter the circumstance everything else a little noisy. You could
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: believe the storylines you want with Rabel and I think
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: I agree with you, like there's no reason for him
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: not to stomp on Tennessee's neck if he.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: Has the ability to.
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: But as a whole, I think the line's a little inflated.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: I also think it's probably just gonna go up sixty
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: four percent of tickets seventy four percent of the money
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: on New England. I think as we get closer to
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: the weekend, it could get to stuck.
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: What do you think seven and a half? Is it possible?
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Like?
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Do we keep going there's one already here?
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay, there you go.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I think it'll close seven, but I think they will
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: probably season seven and a half.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: What about so Dan Campbell Monday Night Football against the Bucks.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: That's a really interesting game. I think that's a really
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: tough one to peg from a betting perspective because the Lions,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: we know, have just been so good against the spread,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: yet their secondary. We'll see what happens this week. But
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: so banged up against Kansas City and that was such
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: a casey spot on Sunday Night Football. Now they play
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: the Buck. The Bucks are without everyone on offense and
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: they've been awesome. So Dan Campbell off a loss, though,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I would think is probably the primer angle to follow here.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: What do we have on that if anything?
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, very simple.
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: I mean Goff and Campbell fifteen twelve and one straight up,
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: twenty and eight against spread afful loss. But what everyone
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: will tout they've covered in won eleven straight dating back
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: to the November of twenty twenty two. So basically, they
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: come off a loss, they mow people over. And I
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: think the angle that is more of an outlier when
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: it comes to this is just the fact that when
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: GoF is a favorite, he's pretty much just crush competition,
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: especially when it comes to night games and things.
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: Of that nature. They just they're ridiculous.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: During the regular season, GoF is nineteen and three straight
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: up as a favorite in night games, nine to zero
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: with the Lions. He's made thirty nine starts at night
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: in prime time twenty one and five straight up as
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: a favorite, So and we saw it was interesting is
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: four and nine as an underdog. So, uh, the role
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: we saw against Kansas City kind of followed what he's
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: done previously.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: But in this.
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: Spot, especially awful loss, everyone just going to make the
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: assumptions on Detroit series in the line. Actually, wow, I
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: literally just looked at this line had gone down to
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: four and a half. I didn't see that it was
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: five and a half last night.
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: There's so many injuries to keep track of. There. You
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: have all the Lions corners. There're gonna be a little
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: bit corners again. Then you have this the safety that
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: might get suspended or he is suspended, but he's appealed. Yeah,
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: but he's going to appeal it, so I don't know
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: if that's changed. Taylor Decker's hurt too, And then the Bucks.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: You have all the offensive line injuries.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Hockey.
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: Every's not gonna play, Godwin's not gonna play. Buka mri
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: Evans could be back. But that's a lot like you.
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: That's a tough game to crack. But there might be
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: some market movement throughout the week based on the injuries
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: because the Lions defense is a ton and their left
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: tackle and the box offense is decimated throughout. But maybe
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: just Baker Anfield, it doesn't even matter and he's gonna
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: find guys no matter what against a just completely depleted secondary.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: But there's a lot of moving pieces with that game.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to be on the lines, but I
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: think to Stucky's point, waiting is probably the best option here.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: That right there is why we save Evan for the
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: end of the episode. That was fantastic. That'll do it
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: for today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: and Gifford Gold. The Favorites will return on Thursday right
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: here on the Action Network you Catube page, when we
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: detail our week's seven best bets, unveiling this week's two
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay Redemption ahead, ladies and gentlemen,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: We'll see you next year on the Favorites presented by
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: DraftKings were out.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 44:58
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• 45:01
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