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Transcript

Live At Take 16! · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so today is December 17th.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Pat with us here and a live crowd at Take 16.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: How's it going, Pat?
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Good, Mike.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: How are you?
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Very good.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're gonna talk about a few different things.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna talk about the grain market and the overall outlook there first.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Then we're gonna talk about the lean hog market a little bit, and then finish up with some cattle.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: How's that sound?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds great.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Alright, so this grain market here, we've had a lot of volatility recently, Pat, but I want to talk about a broad market outlook here.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Uh what do you see right now in the grain markets for uh overall fundamentals from a very macro perspective?
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we find ourselves um wanting to think a lot about what stage of the cycle that we're in today.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: And we've we've recently come off a pretty good commodity run here, especially as it relates to corn and soybean prices.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: And and um now that we've settled ourselves into a little bit more of a static, steady uh projected ending stocks number, um, obviously we've seen a correction in prices here that's created um a rather challenging margin environment.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: And one of the things that uh that we keep wanting to reiterate to our road crop producers in in particular is that this isn't the first time that we've been here, right?
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: We've been at this stage of the cycle before.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um and and one of the good things that I would observe about about this rotation through the cycle is that we have been able to flex into some corn demand a little bit quicker than maybe what we have in the past.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: And so I'm reminded of coming off of that, you know, that the 2012-2013 high commodity price years of the smaller crop.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um, as we started to rebuild ending stocks here domestically in the in the U.S., it took a long time to rebuild that demand again.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: And what just happened on the last report here last week, Mike?
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we we grew demand in the corn market here uh 200 million bushels in a single report.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: So it was a really big move in demand, especially for a December report.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: It was the biggest tightening of ending stocks we've seen since 2020.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's right.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna use over 15 billion bushels of corn this year.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, we're going to harvest a record crop, 183 bushel the acre.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get a final number here in January.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but we're gonna end up with slightly less ending stocks at the end of this crop year than what we started it with.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: So so it it does seem as though, at least at this point, we are able to flex into a little bit of additional demand a little bit quicker with lower prices.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: How about the soybean market?
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Because it is a lot different on that side, Pat.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen really good demand kick on really soon on the corn market.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: But what about the soybeans?
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I wish I would have studied a little bit harder way back in college, but I I did learn a little bit about elasticity of demand.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: And one of the issues with soybeans is is that uh contrary to corn to some extent, is is that we do struggle a little bit with flexing into additional oil and meal demand.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: And so um as as we look at the prospects for what looks to be a very uh very large crop down in in the southern hemisphere in Brazil and Argentina, um that's a little concerning, and perhaps a lot concerning about how we're going to flex in some demand on the oil seed side of the equation with what appears to be a pretty burdensome crop down there.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, bearish fundamentals across the board on the soybeans.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Today we did not see very fantastic uh price movement as well.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: We blew through some major support levels on the soybeans, so uh struggling uh complex on that one.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Indeed.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Hey Mike, one of the questions we had from the crowd earlier was about uh um about interest rates and and what the Fed's gonna do tomorrow.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: Do you have any comments on that?
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: 25 basis point cut, uh very much expected.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: And then the next six months it sounds like we're taking a break, Pat.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I think uh it's not so much of what they're expected to do in this one, but more of the the tone that Powell sets for really as Trump takes takes the White House here in January.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so it uh uh a lot of the things that we expect out of the new administration is perceived to be inflationary, right?
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: And and uh we have the stock market tricking at record levels, and we have the feds cutting interest rates in the middle of all of that.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let that sink in.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're cutting interest rates as the stock market's at record highs.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, not a lot of times you can say that in history.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so generally the the the uh uh the job that we that we all have, right?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: We we don't mind a little inflation, it's usually generally good for commodities, right?
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: But there's uh this this thing could get really interesting really quick as it relates to lower interest rates, lower cost of money, some stimulus as it relates to uh uh new administration uh coupled with um uh coupled with a cheaper dollar as well.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: So do you uh you have any comments, Mike, as it relates to trade and Trump and all of those things?
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I I think the the hard part is figuring out uh you know when it comes to China, we've been through that before with this administration.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh he hasn't changed his goals at all or his stance when it comes to trade with China.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think the the ones that are gonna be a lot more volatile up front here in in his presidency will be his relationships with Canada and Mexico.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I think uh Trump has established uh somewhat of a dominance, I think, here and really showed that uh we matter a lot to both of those countries.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: And uh hopefully that means that they're gonna come to the table quickly, right?
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, the the roadmap is set.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um I mean during his first administration, um really the Chinese economy hasn't been the same since then.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: And and so um I I expect that this round of Trump versus China, if you will, is gonna is going to be pretty mild because we've done a lot of damage.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: But uh it it may be setting um a bit of a roadmap for what potentially could happen with Mexico, which has also has always been a very good partner of ours, but but um um potentially uh the amount of influence that he could try to exert and try to to correct the things that he thinks needs correcting um may have an impact on commodity trade, particularly on the livestock side of things, which I I uh I think is a decent transition to you know talking about what's going on in the in the cattle and hog markets today, and and um you know, from a hog complex perspective, we've got uh um really on the demand side of things hitting on all cylinders, right?
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: We've got uh uh the the traditional export partners uh like South Korea and Japan.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: We've picked up some market share as the European uh community has dropped production due to some um challenges in their country as it relates to uh self-induced indeed.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: Mainly.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: And uh so so we have we have some nice growth in that sector, the traditional export sector that we like to think of.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: Um and really that Chinese market has been good as it relates to um some of the the lower value products cuts that we don't uh we don't get an incredible amount of value for in other parts of the of the of the planet.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: And so um, and so then we we also are seeing some really nice growth in what we always call the other category, a lot of other uh smaller country destinations, but the combination of all those things has added up into some nice growth on an export perspective there.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but Mexico is the big one.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: Mexico actually uh uh is is buying about half of the of the pork that we produce today, which is about 10% of our total supply.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: And so and so there's a there's a a a lot of risk there as it relates to um how how uh the relationship is going with with Mexico as you go forward with this new administration.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: And with that being said, I mean when it comes to the impact that's had on the markets, we probably haven't seen a lot of impact on the hog market from the trade situation that we've been kind of lining up to, have we?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well it's interesting.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: I the the index funds and and manage money, those folks are record longs today, and they're longer today than they were on election day.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: So they must not be too concerned about the impact that it might have.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Not really yet.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: Uh how about the cattle side as we kick it over to that, Pat?
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we've seen some uh major headlines lately.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen uh feeder cattle now on a record position on managed money longs as well.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh very tight situation in both the live cattle and feeder cattle cash markets.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh what kind of outlook do we have from the beef side?
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: And do you want to start with demand there?
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: Spot fundamentals are are are really good, right?
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: We've got uh you know the the the cash spot cattle market's been very solid here.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: Nearby futures have been trading a larger than normal discount to that, which is interesting.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I would just reference that that same thing seems is happening in the hog complex as well, where spot fundamentals are pretty decent, but the futures market is is trading at a discount to that, at least from a seasonal perspective.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: And so um and so the why the futures market is starting to lean towards uh uh a little less enthusiasm is worth noting.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we certainly need to continue to watch money flow and and and what that outside interest looks like.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: But I tell you, from a a demand perspective, a box beef perspective, I mean I you know it's uh it's amazing how um how steadily high we've been able to hold boxed beef values for a couple of years here.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: And in spite of the market trying to figure out all kinds of different potential solutions to this tighter supply.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I and and I'm I'm always amazed by the you know, we we've known for a while, right?
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: We've got the smallest cattle herd in the U.S.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: since 1952, and you know, we knew that we were gonna have smaller beef supplies for quite some time, but we've got weights at record levels.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: We've got uh the importation uh of feeder cattle from both Mexico and Canada is a real big uh a real big thing today, right?
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um in addition to that, um importing of of uh of ground beef supplies from other countries.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: And so the market works in interesting ways where it's uh um able to to attempt to overcome those shortfalls, but so far at least it's been able to do that um at elevated levels.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: And so I'm I'm um I'm cautiously optimistic that we're gonna be able to hold these higher box beef levels.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: And really, when you I guess when you sort of think about that perspective, it goes back to the first thing or the the middle thing that we were talking about as it relates to the U.S.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: economy and inflation and all of those things.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: The the U.S.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: consumer um has done a decent job, I think, of of allocating pr potential, well, for sure, you know, a bigger portion of their disposal income to high quality products that are produced right here in the U.S.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's been an interesting market based on the fact that it seems like we haven't seen a lot of major headlines lately that have been market-moving events, Pat.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the like you said, the hog cylinder or the hog complex has been clicking on all cylinders here recently, and that really hasn't changed.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the grain fundamentals really haven't changed, and normally they don't at this time of the year, anyways.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh uh from the cattle perspective, you know, the screw worm thing was probably the most major headline we've had in recent history for uh for the uh cattle side or egg in in general, but it almost feels like we're just waiting to see what's gonna happen here in Q1 of 2025 when it comes to major market moving events, Pat.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's exactly right.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: And so I've um where that next round of volatility comes from is uh is it's hard to know, right?
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: And that's that's kind of it's unforeseen for a reason.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's kind of the whole point of a solid risk management plan.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, one of the uh I guess to to kind of wrap up here, I would just say that, you know, I I think the best message that that we can have as it relates to a solid risk management plan is you know, from a row crop producer's perspective, um recognize the stage of the cycle that we're in, um, look for opportunities to to try to create um some contribution to fixed costs, right?
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: And I as I look in this room and and uh and and uh think about all of the folks that we had an opportunity to work with for a long time, um I'm I'm reminded of that, right?
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like we've we've seen this before, right?
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: We we know that uh um we're likely in a time frame from a again from a real crop producer's perspective that that um we're not gonna have the volatility that maybe we had seen the last three or four years.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um and it's an important to manage the details, right?
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: And and then and then from a from a livestock producer's perspective, um we're at a stage of the cycle where we need to take advantage of the opportunities in front of us.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, we need to approach the way that we think about um our risk management plan differently in those situations, and and uh fortunately we have uh a lot of tools that allow for us to make those adjustments and capture the opportunities that make the most sense.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: All right, we're gonna open up to any questions that you've texted our team members at this time or uh want to just open up and and ask as well.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: So uh what are we looking out looking at out there?
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Anything?
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: Would be the effect if the Ukraine war was settled, would that increase supplies a great deal?
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the biggest impact I feel that that would have would be one, energy prices, crude oil in particular.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: It probably gets settled by the Nord Stream pipeline getting opened, Russia's fueling uh energy into Europe again, and we allow that to happen.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we stop exporting uh energy products, and that would keep our energy price low in the United States, which this next administration wants anyways, with the people he's put there and some of the goals they have as well.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: So uh energy prices is number one.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh grain exports would probably be number two.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Russia's been very aggressive at keeping a very cheap ruble, and that's held their uh grain exports at really cheap levels uh compared to the rest of the world, and we've had tight ending stocks as well.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: But that time's coming to an end.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh exportable products out of that corner of the world is getting smaller uh from a grain perspective, and they've really uh exported themselves into a tight stocks situation.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: So uh the wheat market and uh energy in particular, natural gas, uh crude oil, those would be the big ones I think for impacts, I guess, out of the Ukraine war stopping.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: Very well said, Mike, and I I I agree with the the top two on your list.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: The third thing that I would mention, Don, is that um there's uh well I we we learned this when that that conflict first began, was that um the first folks that were forced to ration when that supply was constricted were the folks that could least afford it.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well there was there was quite a bit of wheat from the Ukraine-Russian region that were flowing into to some of the more um uh challenging areas in the Middle East.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so um so the good news is, right, if if something like that would get resolved, is that there's some folks that uh maybe need it the most would have better access than they have today.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, great question.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: And and Mike, I'll let you tee it up, but just so everyone could hear the question is about um there's uh a significant uh commitment and expansion to building uh soybean processing facilities like Brewster, like Volga, those kind of things are are being expanded um all across the country in an effort to target a renewable diesel initiative uh uh led by driven by California.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh a market that's had some delays in production here because of logistics, COVID, things like that.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: But we've also seen some delays.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: All of this is backed by government incentive.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: You know, nothing makes renewable diesel necessary unless you have a massive incentive from the government to do such things.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: So if we really wanted to speed that process up and that expansion, all we gotta do is just have the government give us a reason to do it, like we saw with ethanol back in, you know, 2006 through 2010.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the the first main thing I think.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: And and when it comes to what impact that's gonna have on, for example, the soybean market, it it makes you more like ethanol and corn to where you talked about earlier where soybeans have been quite inelastic.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: Just because we have tight-ending stocks on soybeans in the United States doesn't mean price is high.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um, as we bring more of our demand interior into the US, it'll make price make a lot more sense on soybeans, kind of like what we see with corn today.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: Any other questions?
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: What about basis though?
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, on the basis side of things, we had a record crush here last month.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and so that additional capacity is is is building up here.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um I my personal opinion on the basis side of things is that it's it's a little more limited than what maybe one would think initially, because exports are a relief valve, right?
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: Like we was, you know, it's always the surplus ends up in the export market.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: And and you you mentioned it, Bob, appropriately so, given the size of the stocks availability in South America, um, where we would otherwise export soybeans to have some pretty reasonable alternatives.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: And so I I would argue that a crusher only needs to pay a penny more, right, to stop that from from from moving into the export market.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think they work together a little bit because if this does get to be a big enough deal that we're needing that many acres of soybeans in the United States, I mean we probably don't plant as many corn acres, you know.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: So I think it uh it kind of levels out.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I think in in that aspect, it's probably lifted all boats at that point.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you're throwing soybeans in the same food versus fuel debate now.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: And and so that's that's ultimately where we end up, Mike.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: You're right.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: In the meantime, um, you know, we we need to we and will aggressively push our rations, right?
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: To to to to put meal into those rations.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna push some DDGs out, right?
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: So so the the the point is valid, right?
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: There'll they'll there will be um the there will be less soybeans exported out of the country, right?
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna make more oil, it's gonna push meal into the interior.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: It can be exported too, but right?
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: It its first chance is to work into a feed mill and and displace uh DDG rations and in poultry and hog operations.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: Like SDSU, one of their main projects at their swine unit recently has been increasing uh soybean meal uh in the diet.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: So they're people are trying it at least.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of SDSU, we're sponsoring a boot camp this year, January 7th through 11th and the 10th?
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: 7th through 10.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: 7 through 10, thank you.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, from 9 to 3.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Really excited.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um, this is our first annual um SDSU risk management boot camp um offered to um students at SDSU, uh young professionals with an intent to go back to uh uh production agriculture and and uh uh and and and other agriculture young professionals as well.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: And so we're really excited about the opportunity to spend four days um really diving deep talking about about risk management and and uh and uh learning the ropes as it relates to not only how you know futures and options and all that stuff works, but but more importantly, how to apply it on your farm.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: Anything else?
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: Jeremy.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, can you get did you guys hear the question?
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's like it's nice to take 200 million out of demand, right?
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: So that that's good.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um and the corn market kind of ran a little bit going into it, and it tried to run a little bit coming out of it, but it hasn't done much since.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: What's it really gonna take from a production perspective?
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so just for perspective, we get the final um production number for last year's crop in January on that on that report.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: And so so the question is, Mike, how much does it have to go down on yield to matter?
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: So at this point, given our current fundamentals, we should be around 475 on March futures, just given stocks use first price historically.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: So for the first time in years, we're actually undervalued relative to where we should be with these fundamentals.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean if you start to cut yield back as well now, it should start to make more of a difference than we were when we were 50 cents above, you know, hadn't that much premium in the market.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: So I think each step lower now you take in yield, it starts to matter a little bit more.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now, how much?
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if you if you cut off another 200 million bushels, it's gonna make a pretty big dent down to 1.5 billion bushels.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna start to get tight.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's the number that matters.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the more important point is is that um we there was a risk or a uh a chance that corn could go below four dollar futures, and perhaps significantly so.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: And that's that's what this round did, right?
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: It it I would argue identified a floor in this thing for now.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: And now if you want to start to drop that yield number back a little bit, uh we I don't think that's going to happen, right?
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: I we feel pretty good about the 183, uh everything that that we've seen all the way through here, I think.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: And and so I would just say that if it does start to grind itself a little bit lower, that just sets the stage for us being more concerned about or trading weather more aggressively next spring.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you so much.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: We really appreciate the questions.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: That helps a ton.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you for that, and thank you, everyone, for coming tonight.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we, on behalf of all of us at Pro Ag, we wish you and your families a very happy holiday season.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Pat.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us at professionalagmarketing.com.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Ag Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: See you next time.