Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Is Trump trying to end the war in Ukraine, or helping Putin win it

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Is Trump trying to end the war in Ukraine, or helping Putin win it · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There's a scenario Ukrainians have been talking about since the
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  Speaker 1: beginning of the war with Russia. Ukraine fatigue. Basically the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: concern that the United States would gradually lose interest in
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  Speaker 1: helping Kiev defend against Russia's invasion. But there's a fear
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  Speaker 1: now that the situation is actually much worse than that.
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  Speaker 1: That U.S. policy is now actively helping Russia.
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  Speaker 2: And the American taxpayers are tired of it. We want
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  Speaker 2: Zelensky to make a deal.
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  Speaker 3: This is certainly the worst period of American foreign policymaking
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  Speaker 3: on this war in Ukraine since it began.
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  Speaker 4: Trump is just piling on all the pressure to try
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  Speaker 4: and get this done however it ends up being, most
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  Speaker 4: likely on Russia's terms.
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  Speaker 1: So has the U.S. abandoned Ukraine? Or are we seeing
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  Speaker 1: another round of policy whiplash as Trump attempts to negotiate
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  Speaker 1: an end to the war? Let's rewind to 2024. The U.S.
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  Speaker 1: had just had a presidential election. Donald Trump had won
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  Speaker 1: a second term. And there was a moment of optimism
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  Speaker 1: in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 4: You might not believe it now, but there were lots
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  Speaker 4: of people here in Ukraine who thought that Trump, with
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  Speaker 4: his unconventional way of doing business, doing politics, would shake
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  Speaker 4: things up, that he would be less scared of escalating
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  Speaker 4: things against Russia, that he would, in an attempt to
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  Speaker 4: end this, up the stakes.
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  Speaker 1: That's DW correspondent Nick Connolly in Kiev.
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  Speaker 4: After all, this was someone who was the first U.S.
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  Speaker 4: president in his first term to actually supply Ukraine with weapons,
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  Speaker 4: sending javelin anti-tank weapons. And there was now, it seems, naive,
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  Speaker 4: but certainly there was a hope among many people here
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  Speaker 4: that Donald Trump would actually be less scared of escalation,
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  Speaker 4: less careful than Joe Biden.
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  Speaker 1: Trump had promised throughout his campaign that he would be
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  Speaker 1: able to end the war in Ukraine on day one
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  Speaker 1: of his presidency. That didn't happen. But in the first
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  Speaker 1: few months after taking office, his policy started to take shape.
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  Speaker 1: One expert observing that policy closely was John Herbst, the
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  Speaker 1: former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006. Trump
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  Speaker 1: came in.
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  Speaker 3: And said he was going to get this peace in
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  Speaker 3: 24 hours. And he said, well, no, it would take longer.
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  Speaker 3: But he also said some things which I thought were sensible,
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  Speaker 3: like I want to achieve a stable peace based on
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  Speaker 3: the lines that exist between the two opposing armed forces.
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  Speaker 3: And he wanted Ukraine at the end of this peace
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  Speaker 3: to be secure and stable and sovereign. And he also
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  Speaker 3: said he would put pressure on the side that refused
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  Speaker 3: reasonable compromises. But he was clearly more reluctant to put
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  Speaker 3: pressure on Putin to criticize Putin than to put pressure
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  Speaker 3: on Zelensky to criticize Zelensky.
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  Speaker 1: The public fallout between Trump and Zelensky came to a
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  Speaker 1: head in February 2025 during the Ukrainian president's visit to
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  Speaker 1: the Oval Office, which degenerated into a literal shouting match.
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  Speaker 1: Less than a week later, Trump announced that he was
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  Speaker 1: suspending all military aid to Ukraine. It was the Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: fatigue that Ukrainians feared, but all at once instead of gradual.
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  Speaker 1: Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the U.S. had
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  Speaker 1: been Ukraine's primary supplier of aid, military, financial, and humanitarian.
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  Speaker 1: Between 2022 and 2024, under President Joe Biden, the U.S.
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  Speaker 1: sent about $ 20 billion per year in military and humanitarian
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  Speaker 1: aid to Ukraine. But with Trump in office in 2025,
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  Speaker 1: aid dropped by 99%. Europe has also contributed significantly to
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  Speaker 1: the war effort. And the only reason Ukraine's foreign support
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  Speaker 1: hasn't entirely collapsed is because Europe has largely made up
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  Speaker 1: the difference since Trump halted U.S. support. But the lack
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  Speaker 1: of American weapons is being felt on the ground in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 4: I think the really most important thing for people in Kyiv,
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  Speaker 4: where I am now, and also across Ukraine's big cities,
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  Speaker 4: are the Patriot interceptor missiles, right? That is the only
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  Speaker 4: weapon system that is reliable against Russia's ballistic missiles. There
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  Speaker 4: are lots of alternatives to deal with cruise missiles, alternatives
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  Speaker 4: produced in Europe, like Germany's RST or the NASAMS system
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  Speaker 4: that's also produced in Norway. But against Russian ballistic missiles,
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  Speaker 4: there is only one game in town. The European alternative, SMPTE,
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  Speaker 4: doesn't seem to work reliably. They are trying to improve it,
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  Speaker 4: but for now it is not a kind of ready-to-use solution.
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  Speaker 4: And we've just had news in the last couple of
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  Speaker 4: hours from Prince Zelensky in an interview he gave to Bloomberg.
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  Speaker 4: where he says that Ukraine is now on average receiving
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  Speaker 4: only 12 interceptor missiles per month, down by three quarters
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  Speaker 4: from the Biden presidency. And just to give you some
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  Speaker 4: context for that, 12 interceptors a month just last night,
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  Speaker 4: in one night, Russia used 16 ballistic missiles against Kiev.
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  Speaker 4: And if you're using those interceptors the way they're intended
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  Speaker 4: by the manufacturers, you would at least count, you would
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  Speaker 4: at least prepare two interceptor missiles for every incoming missile
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  Speaker 4: to be sure that you're going to stop them. so
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  Speaker 4: that would be over 30 just to stop last night's attack,
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  Speaker 4: and those missiles just aren't there, and that's why so
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  Speaker 4: many of these missiles are getting through and causing the
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  Speaker 4: kind of damage we've seen today, this morning, with metro
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  Speaker 4: stations closed, infrastructure destroyed, people losing their lives, malls kind
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  Speaker 4: of bashed up. This is really having a really kind
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  Speaker 4: of tangible effect.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, civilian casualties in Ukraine, after rapidly decreasing in
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  Speaker 1: the first year of the full-scale war, are now higher
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  Speaker 1: than at any other point, with over 2,500 civilian deaths,
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  Speaker 1: and over 15,000 civilian injuries so far this year. Trump
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  Speaker 1: withholding military aid is not a brand new development. But recently,
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  Speaker 1: Zelensky claimed the Americans had also begun withholding intelligence about
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  Speaker 1: incoming attacks.
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  Speaker 4: U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied the claim. But even
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  Speaker 1: the accusation reminded Ukrainians how much they depend on an
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  Speaker 1: unreliable partner.
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  Speaker 4: There is real worry here that this is all just
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  Speaker 4: part of trying to scare Ukraine and also Zelensky and
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  Speaker 4: his team into coming to a deal on Russia's terms,
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  Speaker 4: on Trump's terms. by kind of withholding this intelligence, then
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  Speaker 4: restoring it. And that is obviously Donald Trump's one last
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  Speaker 4: big card in terms of putting pressure on Ukraine. He's
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  Speaker 4: withdrawn the support from Ukraine financially in terms of military supply,
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  Speaker 4: so he can't pull that. That's already gone. But he
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  Speaker 4: does have that intelligence card, and now he's using it.
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  Speaker 1: Another recent move that has shocked Ukraine is Trump's apparent
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  Speaker 1: attempt to protect Russia's oil industry, citing high fuel prices.
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  Speaker 1: Earlier in October, he announced a deal with Russia to
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  Speaker 1: immediately release over 2 million barrels of Russian diesel into U.S.
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  Speaker 1: and global markets. He claimed the reason was to lower
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  Speaker 1: prices and show his voters a return on their investment.
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  Speaker 2: And the American taxpayers are tired of it. We want
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  Speaker 2: Zelensky to make a deal. It's time to make a deal.
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  Speaker 2: And I say that. Remember this, though. We've given a
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  Speaker 2: lot to Ukraine. We've gotten absolutely nothing back except grief, death,
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  Speaker 2: tremendous monetary loss.
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  Speaker 3: Now, I believe Trump wants that diesel deal to show
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  Speaker 3: the American people he's trying to bring down the price
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  Speaker 3: of diesel. But we all know that that deal involves
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  Speaker 3: such a small amount of diesel, it's not going to
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  Speaker 3: have a real impact on diesel prices. But having said that,
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  Speaker 3: Trump can claim it will and try to use that
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  Speaker 3: in the midterms, which are coming up, what, in a
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  Speaker 3: couple of weeks. So the question is, does this continue
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  Speaker 3: after that?
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  Speaker 1: On top of that, Trump tried to stop Ukraine from
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  Speaker 1: attacking Russian oil refineries with drones. a tactic they launched
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  Speaker 1: earlier this year that proved more effective than expected.
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  Speaker 4: At the beginning, if you listened to industry experts last year,
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  Speaker 4: they would for the most part say that this was
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  Speaker 4: a lot about PR, a lot about Ukraine trying to
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  Speaker 4: show Russia that it was also vulnerable, trying to show
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  Speaker 4: international partners that Ukraine also could take the upper hand
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  Speaker 4: and do things that Russia wasn't prepared for. Whereas in
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  Speaker 4: the last six months, we really have seen the impact
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  Speaker 4: of those strikes rise. We've seen huge queues outside petrol
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  Speaker 4: stations in Russia. fuel shortages, export bans, because Russia was
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  Speaker 4: worried about prices going up for its domestic consumers. So
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  Speaker 4: they really have gone from being something that was more
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  Speaker 4: about showing that it's possible, showing the outside world that
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  Speaker 4: Russia is vulnerable, to actually having a real impact on
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  Speaker 4: Russia's domestic economy and its ability to keep its economy
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  Speaker 4: functioning and to be able to bring in that cash
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  Speaker 4: from outside to pay for this war.
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  Speaker 3: So it's a very effective tactic, and Trump wants him
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  Speaker 3: to stop. And, you know, Trump said he had a
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  Speaker 3: ceasefire Sunday of last week. which of course he did
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  Speaker 3: not have. And the Russians proved that when they bombed
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  Speaker 3: Ukrainian oil installations, energy installations within 10 or 12 hours
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  Speaker 3: of Trump's statement. And Zelensky, because Trump wanted him to stop,
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  Speaker 3: held back for three days while the Russians were bombing
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  Speaker 3: Ukrainian energy. There was not one word of criticism from
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  Speaker 3: Trump against Russia, but he slammed Ukraine for striking back
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  Speaker 3: after holding off for three days.
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  Speaker 4: And there's a real sense here in Ukraine among many
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  Speaker 4: analysts you talk to, that it isn't about any of
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  Speaker 4: this diesel ever reaching America. It's basically just a way
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  Speaker 4: of saying to Ukrainians, you cannot touch those refineries because
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  Speaker 4: you'd be harming our interests.
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  Speaker 1: So, an end to weapons shipments to Ukraine, allegations of
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  Speaker 1: military intelligence being withheld, deals to safeguard Russia's oil industry,
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  Speaker 1: and most recently, an executive order from Trump waiving a
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  Speaker 1: major package of sanctions on Russia right before it was
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  Speaker 1: set to take effect. Does this add up to a
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  Speaker 1: turning point the point at which Trump has decided to
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  Speaker 1: abandon Ukraine altogether. Not yet.
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  Speaker 3: Not yet. Again, if we're in the same spot, if
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  Speaker 3: our policy is in the same spot six months from now,
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  Speaker 3: then that's probably an accurate assessment. Now, even there I
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  Speaker 3: hedge a little bit because we're still not truly on Russia's,
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  Speaker 3: on Putin's side. We could provide them intelligence. We could
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  Speaker 3: send weapons to them. Then we would actually be kind
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  Speaker 3: of an ally. But again, he's been reluctant to put
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  Speaker 3: pressure on Putin. And ever since he put those sanctions
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  Speaker 3: on a year ago, he's been finding ways to make
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  Speaker 3: Putin's life easier. And even now, he said on a
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  Speaker 3: true social post that, well, you know, he's trying to
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  Speaker 3: keep Russia in the negotiating game and he needs to
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  Speaker 3: offer him incentives. That, frankly, is exactly wrong. That shows
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  Speaker 3: that an understanding which doesn't recognize what Putin is up to,
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  Speaker 3: how Russia under Putin at least works. which is they
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  Speaker 3: are bound and determined to take control of Ukraine. And
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  Speaker 3: only if it's painful will they stop. So the approach
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  Speaker 3: is misguided, for sure. It's possible that it is all
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  Speaker 3: just pretty words to design surrendering Ukraine to Putin, but
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  Speaker 3: he has yet to actually do that, although if he
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  Speaker 3: continues to shut off of intel, this becomes true for
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  Speaker 3: the indefinite future, And if he makes sure that no
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  Speaker 3: American weapons go to Ukraine and he continues to push
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  Speaker 3: to ease sanctions on Russia and to give Putin Russia's
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  Speaker 3: frozen state assets, that would be all substantial evidence he
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  Speaker 3: wants to surrender Ukraine to Putin.
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  Speaker 1: Still, even if the U.S. president has given up on Ukraine,
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  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean all Americans have.
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  Speaker 4: I think the administration here in Kiev is still mindful
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  Speaker 4: of the fact there are lots of people in Washington
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  Speaker 4: who have different views of Ukraine. Lots of people in
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  Speaker 4: America's defense community, in the Pentagon, who are not happy
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  Speaker 4: about these deals being done with Vladimir Putin. And there's
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  Speaker 4: just hope that if they can hold on till past
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  Speaker 4: the midterms, till the new year when those new lawmakers
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  Speaker 4: are expected to be in place, that then Trump's ability
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  Speaker 4: to take this path will be severely limited.
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  Speaker 1: Once again, Ukraine is facing a winter of Russian attacks
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  Speaker 1: on their cities. But once again, there's also hope that
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  Speaker 1: something will shift in the US or in Russia that
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  Speaker 1: will bring an end to the war. I'm Amir Isif
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  Speaker 1: from Berlin. Thanks for watching.