Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 53: Trump Stokes Tribalism and Redefines the Global Order

Transcript

Episode 53: Trump Stokes Tribalism and Redefines the Global Order · Trend Watch

• 0:00
  I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today is March 6th, 2025, and this is Trendwatch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:40
  So Christian,
• 0:41
  I have to ask you,
• 0:42
  as I guess I do every week,
• 0:45
  how was your week?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: it was pretty good,
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: Neil,
• 0:47
  but I have to say I have my own personal gripe with the Trump administration.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: Let's hear it.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: they ended remote work and are now forcing everyone back in the office,
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: and the DC traffic is terrible now.
• 1:02
  I go to the gym after work,
• 1:04
  I'm just sitting in standstill traffic,
• 1:06
  and it's horrible.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that is, you know, I don't know.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe DC deserves congestion pricing.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Bring it on.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think Donald thinks much of that either.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe he doesn't care too much about DC, so I don't know.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: But we'll see.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I do know what you mean.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: DC can be horrible once you get into the city.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: The highways leading into it have...
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Lexus lanes and they have some of that stuff.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Once you get into the surface roads, right?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Gets all jammed up.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: So that's my own personal complaint.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: I know it's not getting fired.
• 1:48
  Well,
• 1:48
  that's,
• 1:49
  yeah,
• 1:50
  that must actually contribute a little bit to decongestion.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, everything is a balance.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Everything in nature is a balance.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: As always,
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: let me remind you,
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: if you like this podcast,
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: please go ahead,
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: share it with your friends and family,
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: repost it on social media.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get into today's podcast.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: As I like to say, as always, we have lots to talk about.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: I will say,
• 2:11
  since the Trump administration started to use the kind of
• 2:15
  lastingly memorable words
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: of Steve Bannon,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: it's all about flooding the zone with shit,
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 2:20
  I mean,
• 2:21
  there is so much out there that needs commentary of some kind,
• 2:26
  but it
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: In a way, it's all very revealing.
• 2:29
  We're going to try to do that,
• 2:30
  at least in passing,
• 2:32
  on a few of the big stories of this week.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: First of all,
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: domestically,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: on Tuesday,
• 2:37
  President Trump delivered a one hour and 40 minute address to a
• 2:41
  deeply divided
• 2:42
  Congress that celebrated his early efforts to reconstruct
• 2:46
  government and lead
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: America into a new era.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Also on Tuesday,
• 2:53
  Trump imposed 20 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an
• 2:57
  extra 10 percent
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: tariff on China.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Although earlier today,
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: in fact,
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: I should say several times over the last few days,
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: he's been jiggering and adjusting that a little bit.
• 3:11
  But earlier today,
• 3:12
  he reneged on tariffs on goods covered under the USMCA.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: And we could talk about, you know, how much that actually changes it.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: And also,
• 3:24
  Trump's aggressive efforts to reshape the federal government is
• 3:27
  increasingly
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: embattled in federal courts,
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: with one key issue,
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: impoundment getting its first vote in the Supreme Court.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: So we will take a look at that and where all the court battles stand.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Overseas,
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: clearly one big story,
• 3:44
  and that is following the Oval Office shouting match between
• 3:49
  Donald Trump,
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: J.D.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Vance, and Volodymyr Zelensky.
• 3:53
  The administration has started to shut down intelligence
• 3:56
  cooperation with Ukraine.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Although on Tuesday,
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: during his speech,
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Trump hinted that he and Zelensky may be ready to make a deal.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's always the TV drama, right?
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: There's always a plot line about to break.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: The incoming chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz,
• 4:14
  opened the way for a huge increase in defense and
• 4:17
  infrastructure by getting rid of
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: the so-called debt break,
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: the Schuldenbremse,
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: for those of you who would like it auf Deutsch,
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: that up to now has constrained deficit spending.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is a big story,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: and we certainly talked about this obstacle in the past,
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: and particularly in the context of what happens to Ukraine.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: This may be very consequential.
• 4:40
  And still another story reacting to increasing military
• 4:44
  pressure from China and to
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's brusque treatment of Ukraine.
• 4:49
  Taiwan's world leading chipmaker TSMC promised to invest 100
• 4:55
  billion more in its
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: new Arizona facilities.
• 4:58
  So with that,
• 5:00
  Christian,
• 5:00
  why don't we take a look at,
• 5:02
  you know,
• 5:02
  go to the top as we usually do.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Take a look at markets and work our way through.
• 5:06
  All right,
• 5:07
  Neil,
• 5:07
  the S&P 500 closed down today 1.78% and over the last five days
• 5:14
  is down 2.1%.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: As for the global Dow, that was actually looking a little better.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: It closed up today 0.1% and over the last five days is up 0.45%.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: As for the VIX, that closed today at 24.87%.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: That is significantly higher than what we have been seeing.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: Then for the 10-year Treasury,
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: today that was at 4.281%,
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: up 6.1 basis points over the last five days.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting and kind of surprising.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: It actually hasn't gone down more.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about the 10-year in just a second.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: What other kinds of indicators do you have?
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: For the U.S., I got some PMIs for you, Neil.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: We got the ISM for February.
• 6:03
  manufacturing fell from 50.9 to 50.3 and services rose from
• 6:09
  52.8 to 53.5 i'll also
• 6:12
  add we got the final smp pmis and manufacturing came in at 52.7
• 6:19
  which was a little
• 6:20
  bit better than the preliminary results and services came in at
• 6:23
  51.0 which was also
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: better than the preliminary results
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: Other than that,
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: we had the ADP employment change for February,
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: which came in at 77,000,
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: which was significantly below expectations of 140,000.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's really low.
• 6:40
  If the payroll number comes in at that level,
• 6:46
  that's going to affect markets,
• 6:47
  right?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: we'll also watch the CPS,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: although,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: frankly,
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: given the end of year adjustments,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: CPS has kind of been crazy lately.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: You didn't mention what's on everyone's mind.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously,
• 7:02
  tariffs are on people's minds and what that's going to do to
• 7:06
  the consumer,
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: to earnings and to GDP.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: And this Atlanta Fed GDP now, right?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: People are watching that.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: I've never seen something like that lately.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: They're actually projecting that.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: A minus 2.4% annualized GDP change in Q1.
• 7:25
  I haven't seen any number like that come out of a GDP now for
• 7:29
  quite some time.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how long that's been.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: The interest rate yields are all down.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: The break evens down.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: But the TIPS yield is down even more.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: The break-even since this is the break-even expected 10-year inflation,
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: just taking the difference between the TIPS and the nominal 10-year,
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: has gone from 2.44 to 2.34.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: Down a little bit, but not down a lot, right?
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: The TIPS yield,
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: which is in a sense the real yield on the 10-year,
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: is down from that same date,
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: 2.34.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: to 1.94.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: So that's down 40 basis points.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: What can we tell from that?
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Real yields are falling.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: And in fact, the 10-year, 3-month is back into inversion, right?
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: So we inverted, we de-inverted, and we now
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: We've done everything you can do before a recession, perhaps, right?
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows when the next recession is?
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: But it's obviously the word stagflation is coming to mind, right?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because we do know...
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: that the CPI remained disappointingly high.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: That was the big news in the past month.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: The PCE is just hanging up there.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: And with these interest rates coming down,
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: these implicit big declines in real yields,
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: that suggests expectations of declining real activity.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that's really what you should be seeing.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's really what an inverted yield curve sort of represents.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to see how that goes from there.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Anything international.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: I just got some PMIs out of China for February.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: This is the Sai Shin.
• 9:14
  Manufacturing rose from 50.1 to 50.8,
• 9:18
  and services rose from 51.0 to 51.4.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: They're getting all those exports out quick before the tariffs.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, this has been bandied about as an explanation.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: Anything else?
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's all we got.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, why don't we just plunge into our first story?
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a State of the Union address, is it?
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: You do not do a State of the Union until your second year.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, okay.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: Either I should read the Constitution more closely.
• 9:49
  I find out at least where exactly this terminology is supposed
• 9:54
  to come from.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just hear your description and what you got out of it.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil.
• 10:00
  Well,
• 10:00
  on Tuesday,
• 10:01
  Trump addressed a joint session of Congress in an hour and 40
• 10:05
  minute speech.
• 10:06
  In the address,
• 10:06
  he highlighted his many executive orders and praised Elon
• 10:10
  Musk's work with Doge.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: The speech was highly partisan.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: He often focused on many culture war issues like DEI.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: He called Joe Biden the worst president ever.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: And he criticized Democrats for never applauding his achievements.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: There were spurts of Democratic resistance.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: You know, a few representatives held signs criticizing the president.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: Some wore pink in solidarity with women.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:36
  the most famous moment was when Representative Al Green was
• 10:38
  actually kicked out for
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: standing up and heckling Trump with his cane.
• 10:42
  But as most people said,
• 10:44
  the Democrats honestly kind of looked like a defeated party.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: Neil, what did you make of the speech?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know, yeah, I wouldn't disagree with anything you said.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: I actually thought it was a very effective speech.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: You know Trump.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't go from campaign mode into governing mode.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: He just stays in campaign mode, right?
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, to me, this was a campaign speech.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: It wasn't really a lot about governing.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: It was...
• 11:10
  hammering down again and again where he stands on the issues
• 11:14
  that are most popular
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: in the minds of most voters.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought he did that very effectively.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: He came down again and again on how this is a dangerous world,
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: and I am making it safer,
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: for all of you.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of stuff on,
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: child trafficking and global gangsters and the immigration threat and...
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: cleaning criminals off the streets and naming.
• 11:39
  He went into several international cartels and gangs and talked
• 11:43
  about they were now
• 11:44
  labeled terrorists and were going after them with all these
• 11:47
  high-tech gear and
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: special forces personnel and so on.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: And very much to his voters.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: You notice the little boy wanting to become a policeman, right?
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: Being celebrated.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't celebrate a little boy wanting to become a
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: a brain surgeon, you know, or someone wanting to go.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: No, it was a policeman.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: This is his constituency.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is working class America.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: They feel this insecurity and they love a guy who's going to come up,
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: knock heads and clean it up.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's just that simple.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: and,
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: I go down here like,
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: the the Lake and Riley Act,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: you remember that named after the victim?
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: this child victim to detain criminal immigrants.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: He called this the great liberation of America.
• 12:47
  He talked about MS-13 and the Venezuelan gangs,
• 12:51
  the largest deportation in history.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Kept on coming home to that again and again.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: On the security front, the Golden Dome Missile Defense, he called it.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: What Israel does, the U.S.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: can do it too.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, anyway, I thought it was effective.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: I thought he did what he had to do.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: In terms of
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: uh, uh, policymaking, um, there was a lot of stuff.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: He just, like Trump always does, he throws out at me no sense whatsoever.
• 13:21
  I mean,
• 13:22
  let,
• 13:22
  let's start with,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:25
  you know,
• 13:25
  some of these,
• 13:27
  some of these numbers,
• 13:28
  right?
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: The, um, the, uh, the, the, um,
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Thousands of federal workers not going to work.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to eliminate the deficit.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to have tax cuts.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to eliminate the deficit.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: There are going to be no taxes on tips,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: no tax on overtime,
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: no tax on Social Security,
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: no tax on interest on U.S.-made cars.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's the first time I actually heard that one.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: But this is not in the House plan.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: It's not in the Senate plan.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's a no plan.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: It just doesn't add up.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: And we're going to eliminate the deficit at the same time.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: Where is this coming from, right?
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it doesn't matter because somehow we're going to make this happen.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Reciprocal tariffs.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: We will tax other countries whatever they tax us.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what do they tax us?
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I don't know.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: We'll figure it out.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: It has to do with non-tariff barriers.
• 14:19
  We're going to figure out all the various subtle
• 14:21
  non-quantitative ways they block our trade.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be a highly subjective number.
• 14:26
  And,
• 14:26
  you know,
• 14:27
  they're just going to choose it for any country,
• 14:29
  what they feel like.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be their number, and that'll be it.
• 14:32
  We pay subsidies to Canada and Mexico with hundreds of billions
• 14:36
  of dollars.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 14:37
  that was news to me until I finally heard that White House
• 14:41
  explained that those are
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: the trade deficits for these countries,
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: So if we import more from another country than they import from us,
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: we're paying them a subsidy,
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, just think about, in what world does that possibly make sense?
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: If Iowa imports more from Nebraska than Nebraska imports from Iowa,
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: then Iowa is paying a subsidy to Nebraska?
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway,
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: but a lot of this has to do with Trump's fixation on bilateral deficits,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: which I'll be honest with you,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know any economist that cares much about bilateral deficits.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: What we should care about is our overall deficit.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: which I think we all understand personally.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: I have a bilateral surplus with my employer.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: I have a bilateral deficit with my grocer.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we all understand this personally, but I can't have a bilateral.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: I can't have a deficit with everyone for very long.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: We all understand that.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's true of people.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's true of countries.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: But the whole,
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: this bilateralism is kind of strange,
• 15:51
  and no one talked about it before Trump came along and kept
• 15:55
  harping about it,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: because Trump,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: it's always personal,
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's always what someone's doing to me or I'm doing to them.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: It always has to be reduced to that.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: And all these tariffs are going to be great for U.S.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_00: farmers, right?
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see about that.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: I've never known a high dollar,
• 16:12
  which will certainly be one of the results from all these
• 16:14
  tariffs once he gets
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: totally cranked up.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: I've never known that to be great for U.S.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: farmers, right?