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Episode 7 - 3/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:20
Hello and welcome to episode seven of the All Systems Go
0:24
Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday, but more importantly, happy day two of
0:38
March Madness. That's right, we got finishing
0:41
up the first round here today guys, and we had a great start
0:44
to the madness yesterday, going three and one with our March
0:47
Madness best bets and again started the day off great with
0:50
Oregon. Remember, Oregon was a dog to
0:52
fave line move. At one point we're getting a
0:54
point, point and a half against South Carolina.
0:56
They flipped to a 2 1/2 point favor.
0:59
That's where they closed that. But really one thing to keep an
1:01
eye out for, not just that dog to fave line move, but looking
1:04
at a situation in terms of game day, steam, game day steam is so
1:08
important. Game day movement, that's when
1:10
limits are raised and big bets come in.
1:12
So the fact that Oregon had that early move in their favor and
1:14
then that move continued throughout the day told us that
1:17
hey, Oregon was the play and they came through for us.
1:19
So quack, quack, duck, fly ducks fly together.
1:22
And then also got a little lucky on Dayton.
1:25
Now Dayton, if you remember they had some sharp buyback.
1:28
One point they were getting 1 1/2, they were creeping down to
1:30
one. They were always a contrarian
1:32
play though. And This is why this time of
1:34
year you want to bet against the public.
1:35
Take these teams getting less than half, less than 40% of
1:38
tickets. Now I admit Dayton, they look
1:41
dead in the water. They had an epic comeback late.
1:44
Obviously a tough hit if you like Nevada there.
1:46
But again, if you're a favorite getting 70% of bets that's a
1:49
play we're never going to make especially in March Madness.
1:51
That's why we're looking to go the other way and go contrarian.
1:54
So epic. Come back for with Dayton could
1:57
not get Colorado State. They just could not hit the
2:00
broadside of a barn. So feel like we got a decent
2:02
number on that one. You know, got an inflated three
2:05
3 1/2, but they just had no offense.
2:07
So that was a loser. Then late night, which made our
2:10
night a profitable night, was Washington State, baby.
2:12
That's right, everybody. And their mother on Drake.
2:15
Drake was the top public play of the day getting 81% of bets so
2:19
going the other way with Washington State only getting
2:21
19% of bats. And remember at one point Drake
2:23
was laying 1 1/2 or two line got down to 1 even though they were
2:27
very popular play. And Ken Pom, our guy, Ken Pom.
2:30
Not only did he have Dayton winning outright, he also had
2:33
Washington State winning outright.
2:34
So had to sweat that wazoo one but came through for us which
2:38
was a great hit to end the day overall on the pod 3 and 2 + 0.4
2:43
units. Because unfortunately the
2:46
Florida Panthers let us down in hockey and really knew we were
2:49
in trouble in that one because Barkov out of nowhere was a
2:52
scratch and didn't play and that line came back down toward
2:54
Nashville. So Florida no show lost 3
2:56
nothing. But who cares about hockey.
2:58
We had a good start to March Madness and we're going to carry
3:00
it over to a big Friday here today and then we are going to
3:03
steam into a big weekend. So for today, right back at it
3:07
for March Madness we are looking at a 5 pack of sweats for you.
3:10
I have a couple dog to fave line moves, some late evolving game
3:14
day steam have some epic epic fade.
3:16
The trendy dog opportunities in which the public is all over a
3:20
couple trendy dogs. So we're going to hope they get
3:22
to the woodshed or take them to the woodshed, go the other way
3:25
with some contrarian favorites and then also a late breaking
3:28
dog play with some sharp reverse line movements.
3:30
We're going to hit on it all on episode seven of the all systems
3:33
Go pod. I also have AUFC bet for you.
3:36
So I'm looking at the UFC card for this weekend and there's one
3:38
fighter in particular, one biter who has an epic low bets, higher
3:42
dollars bet split with a bunch of different technical
3:45
advantages and a big sharp line move.
3:47
So we'll I'll hit on that as well.
3:50
Also want to say real quick thank you to everyone who tuned
3:52
into the live stream yesterday. We got up to 1400 people
3:56
watching the live stream between myself hosted by myself and
3:59
James Santora. We talked a lot about rhythm.
4:01
We hit on a bunch of great plays, had a really successful
4:05
day and we also had Brian Bechlaski who is the the Quant,
4:09
the The Brains Behind Rhythm had some insights as well, which is
4:13
great. I'm glad Brian got to join.
4:14
But reminder as always, the pod is powered by rhythm.
4:17
So I want you guys to give Rhythm a shot, especially this
4:20
time of year and all you got to do is go to the All Systems Go
4:24
Twitter page at under score ASG under score Podcast or my
4:28
Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
4:31
And both of those accounts, they'll be a pinned tweet at the
4:34
very top and it is going to have a link to sign up for a free
4:38
trial, 7 day free trial of rhythm.
4:39
So I want you guys to click that link, sign up, give it a shot
4:42
and start playing around with rhythm here so you can help you
4:45
help you make smart bets. With that being said, guys,
4:47
let's dive right in because I love the board for today and we
4:51
got all day sweats and we had a good start yesterday to the
4:53
madness. So let's see if we can carry it
4:55
over to today. So first one on the board for me
4:57
got a 5 pack we're going to break down.
4:59
I want to talk about New Mexico and Clemson now.
5:02
This one's really catching my eye because at first I was like,
5:05
you know, New Mexico, hey, you know, they're a good team.
5:08
They got a lot of sons of NBA players, whether it's Eddie
5:11
House's kid or Jamal Mashburn's kid, and they had a good
5:14
Mountain West showing. They ended up winning the
5:16
Mountain West. On the flip side, you look at
5:21
this angle here toward Clemson and kind of down on Clemson, you
5:24
know, Clemson got rolled by BC memory.
5:26
Actually bet BC in the ACC tournament.
5:28
They had a big win for us. But Clemson kind of had a tough
5:31
finish to the year. So just as from the standpoint
5:34
of public is loving New Mexico and they're down on Clemson,
5:38
this creates a really good opportunity to buy low on the
5:41
Clemson Tigers here. So just from a data-driven
5:44
standpoint, we got a lot of sharp buyback toward Clemson.
5:47
Now if you'll get New Mexico. New Mexico opened as around a 2
5:51
1/2 point neutral site favorite. And at one point I saw some
5:54
books that was as low as 1 1/2, but it really wants the line
5:57
kind of reached a consensus, it was -2, 1/2 Clemson or sorry,
6:01
-2, 1/2 New Mexico. However, here's the thing, New
6:03
Mexico is a very, very popular play.
6:06
New Mexico is getting 74% of spread bets.
6:09
So you guys know this time of year we want to bet against the
6:12
public. There's a lot of public bias
6:14
recreational money in the market.
6:15
They're betting New Mexico because they have a better
6:17
record and they won their tournament and they got a lot
6:19
of, you know, star players, kids names basically to latch onto.
6:23
So just from a contrarian standpoint, I want to fade New
6:26
Mexico getting 74% of spread bets.
6:28
I want to buy low on Clemson only getting 26% of spread bets.
6:32
But This is why I like Clemson even more.
6:34
Game day movement is coming back toward Clemson.
6:37
I woke up this morning in New Mexico was -2 1/2.
6:41
I'm now looking early afternoon and New Mexico is down to -2 at
6:45
quite a few shops. So why is the line coming back
6:47
to Clemson if everybody and their mother is pounding New
6:50
Mexico? That tells me we have a sharp
6:52
reverse line move game day steam buying low on the Clemson
6:55
Tigers. Now if you look at a couple
6:58
angles here for Clemson, we're going to bank on their better
7:00
offensive efficiency, 24th in the country versus 39th in terms
7:05
of a better offense efficiency, better effective field goal
7:08
percentage, 54% versus 51%, better three-point shooting, 35%
7:13
versus 33% and better free throw shooting.
7:16
I can't tell you how important it is to make your free throws
7:18
this time of year. You guys know this, but 79%
7:20
Clemson only 72% for New Mexico. Here's another angle.
7:25
Ken Palm has New Mexico winning by two points.
7:27
So it's really important here guys, that you find the hook on
7:30
Clemson. There's a lot of books that are
7:32
down to Clemson +2. There are a few out there that
7:35
are still 2 1/2. So shop around as always.
7:37
You can't just bet through one sports book.
7:39
You got to have multiple out so you can get that hook, get
7:41
better prices, even just a small juice price advantage, you know,
7:44
like a -, 110 instead of a -, 115.
7:47
You know you're going to save yourself $0.05 there, but again,
7:49
with hooks, especially key numbers, you know, obviously we
7:52
think of key numbers NFL. It's not as much in basketball,
7:55
but you lose by two. You lose by bucket you want to
7:57
cover with that 2 1/2. Now I'll take a Clemson win
8:00
outright, but Long story short guys, everyone and their mothers
8:02
on New Mexico Lions coming back toward Clemson.
8:05
If you can still find that 2 1/2 good angle here to back the
8:08
Clemson Tigers. So I'm on Clemson at +2 and 1/2
8:12
next game here. This is a game that initially I
8:15
was looking at Florida and now I'm saying no, no, no, we're
8:18
going Colorado here. So this is a 430 game.
8:21
Florida and Colorado. And this one's very interesting
8:22
because when this line opened, the line moved toward Florida.
8:25
You know a lot of books open Florida -1.
8:28
At one point Florida got all the way up to I want to say -2, but
8:32
then overnight they got down to around -1 pick em and now we're
8:36
seeing game day steam hopping the fence toward Colorado.
8:39
Colorado is now -1 at a few shops.
8:42
So whether it's -1 pick em, you know there's maybe you can maybe
8:46
still find a plus one out there. Again, shopping for the best
8:48
line because I see a pick em at one book, I see a -, 1 Colorado,
8:51
I see a -, 1 Florida. So either way, regardless of
8:55
pick em -1 + 1, got to remember this was Florida -2.
8:59
So it's moving in favor of Colorado.
9:02
I like that Colorado is a contrarian play.
9:04
They're only getting 44% of bets at DraftKings, but 50% of the
9:09
money. Also, if you look at the money
9:10
line split here, 54% of money line bets, 68% of money line
9:15
dollars. So good bet split there.
9:18
Ken Palm does have Colorado winning this game, so that's
9:20
great. I mean you would have loved to
9:22
jumped on, you know, Colorado +2, but either way, you know I'm
9:25
going with this late move in favor of the Buffs.
9:28
Ken Palm's got him by one. He's got him ranked higher, 22
9:30
in the country versus 29. Better defensive efficiency.
9:34
Going to really bank on Colorado's defense, 34th in the
9:36
country versus 86th for Florida. We all know Florida can score,
9:40
but they don't play a ton of defense.
9:42
Better effective field goal percentage, 55% versus 52%.
9:46
Better three-point shooting, 39% versus 34%.
9:49
Another big advantage at the free throw line, 78% versus 71%.
9:55
And then another couple other factors here.
9:56
One, it's kind of getting fishy that Colorado is a 10 seed and
10:01
Florida is the seven seed. Now why are we a pick'em and
10:03
even going to -1 Colorado if they're the worst seeded team.
10:07
So it kind of reminds me of the Oregon late move how they were
10:10
were seed, yet they were favored and saw that line move and then
10:13
also momentum. You know Colorado already has a
10:15
win under their belt. They beat Boise and hopefully
10:19
they can carry that momentum into today.
10:20
And then last angle here is the big man for Florida.
10:24
Hand Glowton, Hand Glowton, I don't know how to pronounce his
10:26
name, but he's a big guy. He's a center.
10:28
He unfortunately if you're a Florida fan he broke his leg in
10:31
that last SEC tournament game. So he's out.
10:34
So that's an injury concern for Florida.
10:36
But yeah, it all up here guys. Really the biggest, biggest
10:38
thing to know here is that late game day movement is going
10:42
toward Colorado. So this line is moving toward
10:44
the buff. So here's the thing, if you're
10:45
at a book with Colorado -1, this is a money line plan.
10:48
Colorado, if it, if you have a book that's a plus one, I'll
10:52
take the plus one with Colorado. But if it's a pick or a a -, 1
10:57
is a money line play. So whether it's a plus one or
10:59
money line again try to just I'll take the point just the off
11:03
chance they lose by 1:00 and it's not that big a difference
11:05
in terms in terms of the payout. But I'm going to take a shot
11:08
here with with Colorado with this game day steam in their
11:11
favour. So give me Colorado.
11:13
I got Colorado plus one. But again you can also look at a
11:15
money line either way let's have Buffs win this game next game
11:19
here that I've had my sights set on and this game day movement is
11:22
in our favor and I said hey we better fire on this one.
11:25
I'm talking about Texas A&M. I'm going with the Aggies here
11:28
against Nebraska. This is a 6:50 PM Eastern Time
11:30
game here tonight. This one's interesting for a few
11:33
few reasons. Number one, you know, Long story
11:36
short, this line's moving toward Texas A&M.
11:39
At one point you had Nebraska. I want to say they're a -, 3
11:44
opener, but they immediately got down to like -1 1/2.
11:47
And now we're seeing this line get down to a pick em and we're
11:50
seeing it even hop the fence and going to Texas A&M as a slight
11:54
favorite. So basically Colorado and Texas
11:56
A&M, these are your two games today.
11:57
They're seeing really sharp movement in their favorite and
12:00
flipping dog to fave or flipping you know dog to pick them.
12:03
Either way. Both Colorado and A&M like think
12:06
of it this way. If you like Colorado, you like
12:08
A&M. If you like A&M, you like
12:09
Colorado. They're basically in the same
12:10
exact boat here today. But Texas A&M has that dog to
12:14
fave line move +3 again plus 1 1/2 now it's a pick them now.
12:19
Some shops are -1 A&M. Really good bet split.
12:22
You know, Texas A&M is only getting 53% of bets, but nearly
12:25
60% of the money. So this is what I call a 5050
12:28
line move in a vacuum. If the tickets are split, 5050 a
12:32
line really shouldn't move at all.
12:33
There's no reason for the odds makers to really adjust that
12:35
number. So if you see a 5050 split yet
12:38
one team's getting hammered, that tells me smart money is is
12:41
taking that team that's getting that line move because you
12:43
shouldn't expect, you know, a big move like that if the
12:45
tickets are even, you got to remember not all tickets are
12:47
created equally. There are some tickets that are
12:50
$5 average. Joe Betts, You know that are,
12:53
you know, gut instinct bias bets.
12:54
Then there's dime wagers or even more $1000 bets or more nickel
12:58
bets or more $500 bets from wise guys who have the respect of the
13:02
books and move numbers. Also, I'm going to bank on the
13:05
offensive rebounding of Texas A&M.
13:08
If you've never watched the Aggies, they have two star
13:10
players, two really good scores, Taylor and who's the other guy?
13:15
I forgot the other guy's name, but they have two really good
13:17
scores. But then they are killer on the
13:20
offensive boards. They're one of the best
13:21
rebounding teams in college basketball.
13:23
They're actually number one in offensive rebounds.
13:25
Hopefully A&M feasts on the glass here Tonight.
13:29
They are 42% offensive rebounding versus only 28% for
13:32
Nebraska. And again, we're starting to
13:34
become a bit of a fishy play here because you have A&M the
13:37
nine seed and we have Nebraska the eighth seed.
13:41
So the the nine is basically becoming a favorite over the
13:44
eight. I want to be with that fishy
13:45
line move. So let's go A&M again, shop
13:48
around. If you get a plus one, I don't
13:49
know if there's any plus ones out there anymore.
13:51
So at this point it's a money line play.
13:53
I see a lot of pick Em's, I see a lot of minus ones with the
13:56
Aggies. So I'm going to go Aggies on the
13:58
money line. Got them at around -110 -, 115.
14:02
Now to finish up the night we have two epic fade the trendy
14:06
dog opportunities. So the first one, James Madison,
14:09
WI. I can't tell you guys how much
14:11
I've heard about James Madison. James Madison, James Madison,
14:13
James Madison. Everyone's saying this is going
14:15
to be a big upset. They got him in the Sweet 16.
14:18
But what's the betting market doing?
14:20
The betting market says no, no, no, no.
14:22
Your public narrative. James Madison.
14:24
We got smart money on Wisconsin here, so I'm fading the trendy
14:26
dog. I'm going Wisconsin at -5 1/2.
14:30
You may have been able to find a 5 earlier today, but think of it
14:33
this way. Going into this game, we have
14:35
71% of spread bets on James Madison.
14:38
So just from a contrarian standpoint, I want to bet
14:40
against all this James Madison love.
14:43
But you got to remember, it's not just a favorite that you
14:46
want to bet against that's popular.
14:47
This is a trendy dog. So the public doesn't really
14:50
love betting dogs. They lean toward favorites when
14:52
they and again, you hear me say it all the time.
14:53
But when they fall in love with a dog, that dog becomes trendy,
14:56
that dog becomes popular, that becomes a dog we want to bet
14:59
against. And it's all about not just the
15:02
contrarian angle here feeding the trendy dog, but Wisconsin as
15:05
the line move. That's the most important thing
15:06
here. Wisconsin opened at -4 1/2,
15:09
Wisconsin's up to -5 1/2. So take a step back and say this
15:13
to yourself or ask yourself this.
15:15
You know if if everyone and their mothers betting James
15:17
Madison, why is the line moving toward Wisconsin?
15:20
That is the ultimate dead giveaway that smart money is
15:23
fading, that trendy dog JMU and going with Wisconsin now.
15:27
Wisconsin's also one of the top contrarian plays today is a late
15:30
night game 940 and only getting 29% of spread bets.
15:34
They have the better offensive efficiency, 11th in the country
15:36
versus 54th for JMU, better defensive efficiency, 47th
15:41
versus 80th, better free throw shooting.
15:43
Again, super important this time of year, especially in close
15:47
games, 76% versus 71%. Now Ken Palm does have Wisconsin
15:51
winning by 5, so it's not a Ken Palm edge.
15:54
Now they're laying a 5 1/2, but we are with the sharp move here,
15:57
so let's hope they win by 6 or more.
15:59
But he also has Wisconsin ranked a lot higher, 17th in the
16:02
country versus 59th. So all this love for JMU yet.
16:06
This line's going to Wisconsin. I'm going Wisconsin here, guys.
16:08
I got a 5 earlier today, But now based on the timing of the pod,
16:13
let's go -5 1/2. Let's have, let's have Wisconsin
16:15
roll in this one and hopefully come through for the team last
16:19
one of the night. Again, I told you a second ago,
16:21
if you like A&M, you like Colorado.
16:24
Well, guess what? If you like Wisconsin, you like
16:26
Saint Mary's. Let's go Saint Mary's, baby.
16:28
I'm on the gales here tonight. This is another fade.
16:30
The Trendy dog. Everyone and their mother is on
16:33
Grand Canyon. Also there's another 12-5.
16:36
James Madison and Grand Canyon are both 12 fives and we all
16:39
know 12 fives. A lot of upsets, although I
16:41
think that's kind of becoming overblown and really kind of
16:43
trendy. Maybe the 11/6 is the new upset,
16:46
as we saw a big one there with Duquesne and I can't believe
16:50
Kentucky. What a no show from them.
16:52
Like the kid they'll the sharpshooter hit 10 threes for
16:55
Oakland. What a game that was last night.
16:57
But anyway, Saint Mary's. I love this angle towards Saint
17:00
Mary's because everyone and their mother is on Grand Canyon.
17:03
Grand Canyon is getting 69% of bets.
17:06
So nearly three out of four bets are on Grand Canyon.
17:09
But Saint Mary's has the line move.
17:10
Same thing with Saint Mary's with As with Wisconsin, St.
17:14
Mary's opened -5. When I wrote the article for
17:17
vesan.com today, they were at -5 1/2.
17:21
Now they're up to -6 at quite a few shops.
17:23
So not only is line going to Saint Mary's, even though Grand
17:26
Canyon's the big public play, but game day movement is moving
17:29
the line further in favor of Saint Mary's.
17:31
So good angle here to back the gales.
17:34
Now Saint Mary's contrarian, only 31% reverse line movement
17:38
fade the trendy dog, but also they have the better offensive
17:41
efficiency, 42 in the country versus 61.
17:44
Better defensive efficiency, 14th versus 49th, Better
17:48
offensive rebound percentage, 39%.
17:51
Verse 35% and they take care of the ball.
17:54
Much better. One O 1 in the country and
17:55
turnovers. That doesn't sound great, but if
17:57
you look at the flip side, 228th in turnovers for Grand Canyon.
18:01
So let's hope that the good defense of Saint Mary's really
18:03
turns over the Grand Canyon Lopes, as they're called the
18:07
Antelopes quite a bit here today.
18:09
Now, Ken Palm does have Saint Mary's winning.
18:11
He's only got a winning by 4. So it's not an edge based on Ken
18:15
Palm, but it is an edge based on the betting market moving toward
18:18
Saint Mary's. And again, this was a he's got
18:21
him ranked way higher too. He's got Saint Mary's 18th in
18:24
the country versus 53 for Grand Canyon.
18:27
So again, we're contrarian today, guys, whether it's
18:30
Colorado dog to fave, whether it's A&M dog to fave, whether
18:33
it's Clemson Super Contrarian or Wisconsin St.
18:35
Mary's. Really what we want to be is
18:37
always on the side of the sub 50%, team, sub 40 percent, 30%.
18:41
The more contrarian value we can get, the more we're going to
18:44
enjoy getting down on these sides here.
18:46
So Clemson plus 2, 1/2 Colorado Get a one or a money line at
18:51
this point. A&M money line, Wisconsin -5,
18:54
1/2, Saint Mary's -5 and a half. Five bets there.
18:56
Let's see if we can get three or more and have another good day
18:59
on day two of March Madness. Then real quick guys, before we
19:03
get out of here because I got one eye on my on my iPad here
19:07
sweating games live. And also I want to I want to
19:10
talk one more bet with you before we get out of here.
19:12
And I want to tell you what I'm going to do this weekend which I
19:14
have something planned kind of big for this weekend and I'm
19:16
excited to tell you about. But anyway, biting a little bit
19:20
of UFC. That's right, I got AUFC bet for
19:23
you. One that really caught my eye.
19:25
So we have the UFC Fight Night reboss versus Naman Junis and
19:28
I'm going to go right to the main event.
19:30
Not going to mess around here. Rose Naman Junis against Amanda
19:33
Reboss. Now if you haven't bet UFCI
19:37
always mention this because usually it's the thing we talk
19:39
about in the pod on Fridays. I like to wait until late in the
19:42
week to get as much data as possible, look at where the
19:45
public is, where the lines moving, helps me to identify
19:49
system matches. So of course all systems go.
19:52
We love our system matches. But when it comes to UFC, we're
19:55
going to look at a very rudimentary system that I've
19:58
developed over time, What's treated me pretty, pretty
20:00
decent, and I'm looking for a bounce back because dulgarian
20:03
last week, who we lost on the pod, I didn't get to watch it
20:07
because it was pay-per-view and I said I can't, I can't pay
20:09
pay-per-view for this one. But apparently I was talking to
20:12
Gamble and Lieu, one of my one of my buddies and mentors, UFC,
20:15
and he said basically he got robbed by the by the judges
20:19
here, which was kind of disappointing.
20:22
But anyway, getting our revenge and looking at our system match.
20:26
If you look at Rose Namanjunas, that's what I'm going with.
20:29
We want a fighter who is younger, taller, has a longer
20:33
reach as well as a low bets, higher dollars bet split and a
20:36
sharp line move. And Namanjunas is checking off
20:39
quite a few boxes. So Rose Namajunas, this girl's
20:41
badass. I think her nickname is the
20:43
Thug, but she is. She's pretty awesome, so I'm
20:46
excited to sweat her. Anyway, put that to the side now
20:49
you don't have a youth advantage.
20:50
She's 31, reboss is 30, doesn't have a reach advantage. 65 inch
20:55
reach. Reboss has a 66 inch reach, so
20:57
doesn't. Again, it's not a huge
20:59
discrepancy, but doesn't have the height and doesn't have the
21:01
reach. But she's 2 inches taller, 5
21:04
foot 4 versus 5 foot two. But here's where it gets good.
21:07
This is more of AI guess data data play here.
21:10
So if you look at the data, Namanjunas is only getting 44%
21:14
of bets but 70% of the money. So low bets, higher dollars
21:19
contrarian low bets, higher dollars bets.
21:21
But but also look at the line movement.
21:23
Namanjunas went from an opener of around -175 and now rose
21:28
Namanjunas is around -200. So Publix leaning reboss
21:33
Namanjunas is contrarian, but she's getting less than half the
21:36
tickets. Nearly three out of $4.00 tells
21:38
us the bigger wagers around Namanjunas and lines going in
21:40
her favor. So we're checking off our major
21:43
boxes there with Namanjunas. It's also reading about kind of
21:47
the head to head little angles that I like to kind of at least
21:50
be aware of and try to find an edge.
21:51
Couple edges that I found. One would be that Rose has been
21:55
in a lot of these prime time fights, these headline bouts
21:59
versus reboss, who's making her first prime time or you know,
22:02
kind of main event fight. Also you got to remember the
22:05
main events are 5 rounds. The other fights, the undercard
22:08
ones are usually 3 rounds. So I was reading that.
22:10
I believe this is Reboss's first five round bout versus
22:14
Namanjunas who's done a lot of five rounders.
22:16
So basically she knows to pace yourself, you know, to keep your
22:20
stamina. So also the experience of
22:22
Namanjunas having these big fights under her belt, hopefully
22:25
that will be a benefit. Naman Junis is the more
22:28
technical fighter, more the more dangerous striker hopefully from
22:31
a a knockout as well as very durable.
22:34
So you add it all up here guys. I mean if you tell me she has
22:36
44% bets, 70% money went from -175 to -200 boom that's the
22:42
most important thing here but we have a little bit of a height
22:44
advantage, better experience, more used to these prime time
22:48
fights under the under the the bright lights.
22:52
So add it all up here guys. Tomorrow night biting, I am
22:55
going to be sweating Rose Namanjunas shop around.
22:58
I got rose at -200 so that about does it for episode seven of the
23:04
All Systems Go sports betting podcast on a big Friday.
23:08
Now I want to tell you a few things before we get out of
23:10
here. One if you enjoy the pod and the
23:12
pods growing. I'm seeing us creep up the
23:14
charts here for top Sports betting pod.
23:16
We went from 46th to 40th so keep supporting the pod.
23:20
Give us a follow at on Twitter at under score ASG under score
23:24
Podcast. What I really would love for you
23:26
guys to do is give the Pod a five star review on Spotify or
23:30
iTunes or however you listen to it.
23:32
It should also be on Amazon Music and I believe it should be
23:35
on iHeartRadio. But if you want to give it five
23:36
stars on Spotify, I'd really, really appreciate that.
23:39
That would mean a lot to me. Of course, if you want to learn
23:42
more about data-driven contrarian betting, keep tuning
23:45
into the pod. But also, I'd recommend buying
23:47
my book. Support the team, learn more How
23:49
to become a data-driven better. But if you just go to Amazon.com
23:52
and type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a
23:55
copy for you or for a friend, it'll mean a lot to me.
23:58
Guys, it's you're going to learn how lines are set, how and why
24:01
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
24:03
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
24:06
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, add
24:10
people, Also talk or reach out about baseball.
24:13
I believe the regular season starts in the 28th, so early
24:17
next week I'm going to give you my MLB futures before the season
24:20
starts. Also, how about that Otani story
24:22
where he gave 4.5 million to his interpreter and maybe they're
24:25
betting with an illegal bookie. That could become a massive
24:28
story here. But anyway, we're going to hit
24:30
on baseball. But why I mention that is I have
24:32
a chapter. I'm in my book How to Bet MLB as
24:34
well as March Madness tip. So support the team, Pick up a
24:37
copy. It's only 20 bucks.
24:38
Hopefully it will make you a sharper and wiser.
24:41
Better Now before we get out of here, I want to mention this as
24:43
well. I'm pretty pumped because on
24:45
Sunday I'm getting together with my boys, my best friends that I
24:49
grew up with, and we are meeting up at The MGM Springfield in
24:52
Western Mass, and we have a suite that we bought overnight.
24:57
So we're going to be posted up at The MGM Springfield and we're
25:01
going to be betting on March Madness.
25:02
So I'm thinking of maybe doing a live Twitter stream or maybe do
25:06
a special kind of pod. But we'll be at the book and
25:09
we'll be breaking down all the games and I'm going to try to
25:11
have my buddy Richie who's a really good sharp, better here
25:15
join the pod and and hopefully you'll meet my buddy Rich and
25:17
we'll we'll have some good sharp bets for you.
25:19
So keep an eye out for something interesting and fun, hopefully
25:22
coming up on Sunday. That about does it everyone
25:25
enjoy your weekend here we have another great day of college
25:29
basketball this really this Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
25:31
Sunday. And it doesn't get much better
25:33
than this if you're a college basketball better like myself or
25:37
like you are. So enjoy the sweats.
25:39
Let's cash them tickets. Had a good day yesterday.
25:40
Let's let's keep it going here to to today.
25:43
And my parting words as always if we can keep keep disciplined
25:49
approach. Feel fearless but disciplined
25:51
approach when it comes to sports betting and be a data-driven
25:53
better. If we can make sure that we are
25:55
against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
25:58
avoid parlays, get some CLV. If we can do that we are going
26:02
to be successful sports bettors long term.
26:04
So enjoy the sweats. Have a great Friday again.
26:07
Keep an eye out for some, maybe a live stream or something going
26:11
on on Sunday, 'cause I will be at the book with my best
26:13
friends, which we're all 36 years old at this point.
26:16
I these are the kids I grew up with, went to elementary school
26:19
with high school with. We played sports together and
26:21
now like all of us are like married, have kids.
26:24
But you know, we always used to hang out and it's more of a rare
26:27
occasion. You probably guys, you know,
26:28
guys and gals, whoever are listening.
26:30
You have maybe your group of friends where you know, used to
26:33
hang out all the time and now it's it's more rare.
26:35
People are busy. Everyone has busy lives but
26:37
getting together to to hang out at the book, spend the night and
26:41
it's going to be like an episode of The Hangover.
26:43
Hopefully we won't get into too much trouble, but I'm really,
26:46
really looking forward to it. These are kind of the the
26:48
special times that we're all getting excited about.
26:50
So if you're at The MGM Springfield, I'll see you there.
26:53
If not, look out for some best bets from myself on Sunday, but
26:57
enjoy the sweats. Everyone.
26:58
Have a great weekend. I'll see you back on the pod on
27:01
Monday. And thank you all.
27:03
We're now 7 pods in here, 7 pods under our belt and we are rising
27:07
up the the charts. So that means a lot to me and I
27:10
can only thank you guys. I can't thank you enough I
27:12
should say, to help get this pot off the ground.
27:14
So thank you all, have a great weekend, good luck.
27:17
And as always, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against the
27:20
public. Place yourself on the side of
27:21
the house. Always be with the smart money,
27:23
never against it. And again, if we can keep
27:25
grinding, we're going to keep winning.
27:27
But enjoy the madness guys. Have a great Friday and an even
27:29
better weekend.