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Ryan Bridge: What we got from the RBNZ yesterday · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So what do we know today that we didn't know
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: yesterday after the big show from the Reserve Bank. Well,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: the answer is not much. Really. The cut was expected
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: priced in their outlook bit more rosy on growth. It
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: looks like this is the end of the cycle for cuts.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: But beyond that it really is all guesswork, isn't it.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: The outlook, the central outlook was what they call balanced,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: meaning if we keep our wallets closed, that could hurt
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: the outlook, could hurt the economy. Higher house prices, export prices, well,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: they could help it. Are we any wiser? We put
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of faith in the OCI to get us
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: out of the rut, and even though this is despite
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the fact, it hasn't actually really worked for us thus far,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: has it, even after six rounds of slashing. At one
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: point in the press yesterday the Chief Economist was almost
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: repeating this like it was a mantra, as if by
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: saying it over and over again he would will it
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: to happen. There are two problems here. First, we've heard
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: it all before and not seen the results in Two,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: by their own admission, the GDP numbers that we've been
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: relying on aren't reliable of seasonality, in the numbers, especially
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: for that shocker in June where we apparently went backwards
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: almost eight percent. We didn't. The computer's a bit bust
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: after COVID hasn't quite caught up. Basically, the good news
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: it probably wasn't as bad in that quarter as they
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: said it was. The bad news growth the following quarters
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: probably wasn't as good as forecast either. So giveth with
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: one hand and taketh with another. So we have a
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: system we're hoping like hell will still work in this
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: new post COVID tariff environment with sticky inflation and pretty
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: lame o growth, and the numbers well, we can't really
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: rely on them, which if you cast you in mind
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: back to quarter two, they get blown up by us
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: in the media. We're guilty as charge, scaring people into
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: closing their wallets again and again, perpetuating the cycle. To
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: be fair, there's always been a lag with the ocr
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: working its magic, and at some point surely will hit
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the g spot again for growth, if for no other
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: reason than what goes down must at some point bounce
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: back up. For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks at b from five am weekdays,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,