Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 1 Lines and Spreads with Scooch and a Special Interview with Mike Francesa

Transcript

NFL Week 1 Lines and Spreads with Scooch and a Special Interview with Mike Francesa · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to our brand new podcast from the Action Network,
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: The Favorites. If you're tuning in thinking, hey, where's the Buffet,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You've now got the Favorites. We've got a brand new
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: series that we're launching three times a week during the
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: football season Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. You're still gonna get Scooch.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Later on in the show, He's gonna come on and
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about all the things that you, as
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Buffet listeners, have always loved. We're gonna play Scooch Roulette
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: where we make our best picks. We're gonna go through
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: every single game, figure out where the wise guys are,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: figure out why the money is moving, figure out what
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the market is doing. But we're adding some extra special
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: sauce to our podcast. To the Favorites. On Friday's you're
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: gonna get me and my Action Network brother, black Jack Fletcher,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna try to pick five games from the
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: NFL slate to enter into the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: where the end of the season, if we win the contest,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: we're going to win one million dollars. Blackchat, do you
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: think we can do it? I know we can do it.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: We will do it. There's no if. It's only a
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: question of when. If you're gonna be gambling on the
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: NFL this season, Chat, this is the only podcast you
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: need to listen to because we're gonna give five games
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: a week, brother, and those are going to be winners
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: because we meet them. We get over a million dollars
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: at stake. Here. What are we gonna do If you
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and I disagree in a game, We're gonna fight over
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: it physically. I would like to see that happen on
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a podcast. I think people would enjoy a little bit
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: of a rumbo between you and me. It's gonna be great. Yeah. Well,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the other stuff we're doing on the podcast is on
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Monday's Me and our other Action Network colleagues Jeff Schwartz
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: and Paul Laduca to former professional athletes. Paul Duca ten
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: years in the major leagues as a catcher, four time
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: All Star. Jeff Schwartz eight years in the NFL is
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: an offensive lineman. We are going to come up with
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: a nine parlay bet. It's gonna be your first look
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: at all the action that's coming up the following weekend
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: in college football, the NFL, plus anything else is happening
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: during the week. The three of us are going to
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: come up with nine games that we love. We are
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: going to enter the parlay into our favorite sports books,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: and we are going to win a nineteen thousand to
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: one bet and we're all going to retire to Del
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Boca Vista. Jeff and Polly, let's bring him in. How
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you guys doing, I'm doing well. I'm fantastic, man, I'm
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: gonna started to get this thing going. Jeff, you're driving,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Let's get you in first before you get pulled over
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: by a stadie. How you feeling about our podcast? I
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: love this. It's gonna be a fantastic look ahead to
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the week and get everyone excited for the week ahead
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: after hopefully everyone wins a little bit on Saturday, Sunday
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and heading in the Monday night. So I'm I'm pumped
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: for this. It's great to look at to the week
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: and get excited for some action the following weekend. I'm
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: excited just to hear the trash that Paula Duca brings
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: into our parlor that we have to suffer through. Polly,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: what are you gonna do about that? I mean, there's
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: gonna be more fading than a barber shop on the show,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: like Swarts already fading one of my picks that I
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago when we talked, he's
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: already fading me and he's in a car. I hope
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: your bets are better than that. That's all I can say.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Paul Duca, Jeff Schwartz, black Jack Fletcher, You're all part
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: of the Favorites. We will be bringing this podcast to
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: people on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Next up, we have,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: as promised Bob Scucci, but stick around for the very
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: end because this is the first episode of the Favorites.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: We have a very special bonus interview with Mike Francessa.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And when Mike Francessa says he wants to do an interview,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: you don't say no, you just go, and that's what
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: we did. So stick around for the very end. Coming
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: up next Bookmaker Bob Scucci as promised, together with me
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: again book may Acre Extraordinaire, representing the Orleans and all
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the Boyd Gaming books in the state of Nevada and
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the ever expanding Boyd Gaming Empire. Pretty soon Bookmaker to
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the World, Mr Bob Scoochie Hey, Chad what was that?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Did you come into early? Did were you confuse? What happened?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Did I come into early? Well? I don't know. It
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: sounded like you started and then you pause, But that's okay,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I did not. Are you nervous? Are you nervous? Because
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: we're now a fully professionalized organization working with Cadence thirteen
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: and we're in a studio and you've got like a
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: machine that makes you sound like you're in a studio
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: when you're at your palatial Italian villa in Las Vegas. Yeah,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit makes makes me a little jumpy. Really,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: it's very daunting. It is daunting. It's scared. Well you
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: know what it means, Well, we're gonna have to be
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: better than we've ever been. I gotta up my game.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Here's the scary thing. And people don't know this yet,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: but before we came on the air, Uh, we went
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to start and you were like, I gotta I gotta
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: call you back because uh the powers out in the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: hero leans and um it made all of us here
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: think of Oceans eleven and um it made us think.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting is we have this new theme
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: music now, which sounds like something out of the Ocean's
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: eleven soundtrack, And so is there a heist going on?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Like is the orlean? We'll know tomorrow, right, We've been
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: down for about an hour and a half. Uh. You
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: know what came to my mind is that U and
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: LV Wisconsin game about about ten twelve years ago when
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: when the power went out at the end of the game,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: when Wisconsin was up by forty points and everyone thought
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: we did something there too. Oh my god, I so
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: remember that game. You remember that, Ye, the refund all
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the bets. Wisconsin was up by like forty points and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: it was almost close to the end of the game,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: and that the power went out and they were never
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: able to get power back on, so they just had
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: to cancel the rest of the game. We had to
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: refund all those wagers on Wisconsin. Have you ever been
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: a part of the heist in Vegas? And I don't
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: mean like you know, were you Bob Scucci, you know
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: holding up the MGM? I mean like, have you ever
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: seen someone try to take down a casino? I've never
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: seen it, but and I'm not being facetious, but I
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: but I knew someone that was professional, uh safecracker. He did.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: He did some time but I'm not Joe. I wish
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I was joking, I'm not. I knew this. I knew
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: this guy for a lot of years. He came to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: me when he knew I was a broadcast journalism major,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: and he wanted me to write his story and he won't,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: but he wanted to write it in like a trilogy
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: with like four different parts. But the guy was legit
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: and he was gonna he was part of this ring
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: that was supposed to rob one of the repositories where
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: they keep all the cash of a hundred million dollars.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: And but he didn't know that the f I had
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: been wire tapping him and that he was going to
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: be killed right after the um right after the robbery,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and so the FBI had to show him through these
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: wire taps. They actually pulled him out right before it happened.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So it was an incredible story. But no, I've never
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: been part of anything. Are you kidding me? No? No,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: this is what I love about you, Scooch. Every time
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I asked like a throwaway question, You've got a story
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: that goes like so much further than anything I could
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: have imagined. Remember the dude. So for those of you
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: who are new to the favorites and just listening. Scooch
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and I go way back, and many many years ago,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: UH I wrote a book called The Odds, which now
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Scooch gets credit for UH, in which Scooch was one
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: of the characters, where I followed guys who bet on
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: sports for a living from a bookmaking perspective and the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: guys who actually make the bets. And Scooch was Um
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: one of the bookmakers at the Startust Hotel, which is,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: you know, a classic old school hotel in one of
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the sports books. And the movie Casino was based on
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the guy who was the original bookmaker at the Stardust,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: And so it was full of characters. And there was
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: a guy. Remember the guy what was his name? Uh?
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: I forgot it. I know what we're talking. We were
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: allowed to say, I don't even know we're allowed to
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: say the name. But let's say we called him Johnny.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Johnny was basically UM a pimp. And Johnny stood at
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the end of the counter at the Stardust and he
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: would talk to Scooch Knight And one day I swear
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: to god, he like, didn't he pull out a bag
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: of bullets? Yes? And it was the strange like there
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: was always something strange happening to the stars. Remember the
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: time the guy got shot and like Joe Lupo was
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: putting up like almost like velvet ropes so he could
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: use it as a tourist attraction. Well, he was showing
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: people where the bullet holes were because the guy was shot.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: He ended up getting killed, and but the bullet holes
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: were in one of the TV screens and one of
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: the countertops. And then so yeah, Joe, Joe had the
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: police tape out there and everything. He was a real marketer,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: that Joe. Those were the good old days. Now you're running, yeah,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: now you run the or leads. You're in all the
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: BOYD gaming books in the state of Nevada. We are
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: very shortly going to make you bookmaker to the world.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I know your ambitions are no less than that, but
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: you know what we've got to do. After months and
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: months of not having any football to talk about, we
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: finally have football to talk about. We got so many
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: games that we have to go through. We gotta get
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to it all right. So first up, let's talk about
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: the Eagles and the Falcons Thursday night game. This is
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: a great game to me. I feel like the this
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: game opened at four and a half. It's now two
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: and a half. The Eagles are favored by two and
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: a half points. I feel like bookmakers were just they
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: were just playing the public in this. They're like, we're
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: gonna post high number. You guys are suckers. You're gonna
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: take it because the Eagles won the super Bowl and
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: you don't know any better, and you saw the Falcons
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: losing the playoffs, and like you were hoping against hope
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that the public was just gonna steam in on that
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Eagle side. Yeah, you almost hit it right on the head. Um. Well,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I mean we we anticipate, we didn't get caught off guard.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: You made it sound like we kind of were like
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: flat footed with it or that we were surprised by it.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: But I mean no, and I said it without a judgment.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying that's what I did, that's what you did,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: and how you said so then so then you hit
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the nail right on the head. How about that? So? So,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I mean every year when the Super Bowl champs play
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: on this opening game, we always inflate the line a
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: little bit, but usually it actually goes even further. So
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: obviously the public caught on the wise guys were always
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: onto this. The ticket count and this one's pretty good
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: two ways. So there's they're not really that the public
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: isn't really shading one way or the other. Most of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: this is sharp money. Uh. But but it did come
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: down quite a bit. We're down to two and a
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: half on the game, so, um, I guess there are
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: more a lot more underdog believers in this one than
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: than favorites. Do you know what I did? You took
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: at land a plus four and a half. I took
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it at three and a half. I don't remember seeing
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: it at four and half, Like it might have opened
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: at four and a half the second the line's open,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: and I think it got that down to three and
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: a half almost a media like someone just took a
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: pop and went after it and everybody moved it. Yeah,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: this is no It's one of the few times I
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: can remember where the line has actually come down. Usually
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: usually the Super Bowl champ No matter what line we
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: hang that opening game, it always usually gets driven up.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: So this is one of the few times it's it's
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: come down, and it's quite come down significantly. Yeah, like
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: you're gonna end up needing the Eagles in this game. Yeah,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: for sure, which isn't a bad thing. I mean, I
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: took the Falcons. I took the Falcons at three and
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a half. Um. I actually feel like the Falcons are
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: gonna win this game. I would take them on the
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: money line to win straight up. And I think that
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: their defense is really good and their offense they have
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: like talent at every position. The Eagles Nick Foles, he's
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: been really bad in the preseason. Which guy is going
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: to show up? He doesn't have the full compliment of receivers.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that they're equipped to beat the Falcons,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: and I think there's potential for a Thursday night let down. Yeah.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: I think the game's gonna land exactly three. I think
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: we're and then I think we're gonna get metal done it.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: You do. It's gonna come right down to the wire.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Eagles kick the field goal lands on three. That would
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: be too bad for you. Yeah, that would be a
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: rough way to start the year. Big Tony is knocking
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: out well, you know it's already well, you know, just
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: judging by the power routage and everything, it seems like
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: it's already on that that path. You know, it's not
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: it's not a good oldmen. You guys might not have
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: any in the any money in the cage anyways to
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: pay anybody, because because Danny Ocean would be stealing all
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: of your money right now. He might be there right now. Exactly.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Good thing. You're you're a state, smoking a cigar, having
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a scotch, talking on a real podcast. All right. Uh,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: this next game is totally totally super interesting, right because
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens are seven and a half point favorites
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: over the Buffalo Bills. Again, we're talking about opening lines
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: um in a second that really opened in the spring,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: where in these games we're all being announced and everyone
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: got excited and throughout lines this game open to four
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's like hard to say that's the
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: real opening line, but that's what it is. So there's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: a big three point move. So much happening in this game,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: and there has been even within like the Action Network.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: You know you know that I work at the Action Network, right,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I've heard they So even within the Action Network work
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: with all of our friends here, This big game has
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: caused a huge amount of contention because there's so many
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: of us who would never bet the Ravens is touchdown favorites,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: and so many people are like, are you kidding me?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: The Bills are so bad that Ravens have a great defense.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: This game is now at seven and a half. I
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: feel like I have now bet the Ravens. I bet
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: in the minus seven. It's now at seven and a half.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Tell me what's happening on your side of the fence. Well,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: like you said, we opened this game months ago, and uh,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: we were as low as four on this game when
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: we opened four. Um, Buffalo had gone through a lot
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: of changes that we didn't know who was quarterback until
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: recently that they announced the name uh Peterson Peterman quarterback
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: and for uh for Buffalo. So that drove the line.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: As soon as they made that announcement, that drove it
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: up even more. Uh. You got Lashawn McCoy with the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: possible suspension. That was another uh when that was announced,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: that drove the line up. This is probably our most
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: lopsided game on the board. Uh. That the line move
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: was not just on air. There was a lot of
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: money on this. UH. So this is one of our
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: biggest decisions. It's not a public game at all. It's
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: not like the public is just coming and I'm on Baltimore,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: but it's uh, it's mostly sharp money. Uh, it's a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: lot of Uh. I think the value obviously is now
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: out of it at minus seven and a half. But
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: if somebody was going to take a side, they'd be
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: more inclined to bet on Baltimore than than Buffalo on
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: this one. The last time. Uh. You know, they saw
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: this quarterback through for like five interceptions, so that's what
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: sticks out in their mind the most. Uh, So there's
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: nothing to to make them want to bet on Buffalo
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: in this one. You know what else I love in
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: this game? I love the under well, and that makes
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: sense to it open forty two and a half and
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: it's down. It's down to forty. So when you have
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: a very inexperienced quarterback going up against a pretty good defense,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: then that that seems like the play. It's not a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: bad play if I win all of my bets the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: first weekend, which right now is looking likely. Uh do
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: you think you will then start moving lines entirely based
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: on what I say in this podcast? I'm getting there.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: You're making a believer out of me, like a wise guy, Right,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: you're a wise guy. Yeah, it took a while, but
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: you're there. I'm not saying it with much conviction. Yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: a little sarcasm and I'm pretty thick, all right. Uh,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I love this next game to Houston at New England.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: This game opened at seven. Uh. New England has seven
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: point for ever. It's been bent down to six and
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: a half. Interestingly, the money's on New England. Uh. One
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: of us on this phone call is all over the
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Texans as an underdog in this game. What do you
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: think what's happening? Um? Well, again, we've had these lines
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: up for a long time and at one point, Deshaun
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Watson had had a knee injury. Uh so the line
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: did uh kind of vacillated, kind of. We've got a
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: lot of New England money early. We're up to like
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: seven minus twenty at one point, and when it looked
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: like Deshaun Watson is going to be okay, we started
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: getting all the Houston money. I went down to six
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: and a half. We're back up to seven even money,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: and I think we're gonna stay there. Even though we're
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: getting some sharp money on Houston. All the public money
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: is on New England. That the ticket count is about
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: four to one New England over Houston. Most of that's
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: in Parlay's and uh, just from from the general public. Uh.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Like I said that the sharp guys are on Houston
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: and this one. But I think we're one of the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: only sevens that are still out there. Most places in
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: town are at six six and a half. Um, but
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna stay at seven and just uh
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: take our chances with a seven. You're taking a side. Yeah,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna let you bet Houston and that might be
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: the right side, but uh, it's not a bad thing
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: going into a game needing the Patriots. Now. Well, as
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: we have often said on this podcast in the many
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: iterations in which it existed, you don't make money betting
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: against Bill Belichick. No, not at all. Except guess what
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: today this week? Maybe this could be the year. Yeah, uh,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: all right, The next game is my favorite game, been
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: on it since the second the line's open. I think
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get toasted. Uh. The New York Giants are
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. They opened his four point underdogs
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: that has been bent down. Um about the tickets are
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: split as far as I can tell. Looking at the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. Everyone should download it. They can get
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of information about what the betting markets are doing. Um,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: but I freaking love the Giants in this game. Oh
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: my god, I love them so much. I love them.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: I would marry them. Do you know. I'm almost at
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the point so many people have just made a complete
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: turnaround on the Giants from last year to this year,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: and everyone's a believer in the Giants, everyone you talk to. Uh,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: I'm almost at the point where I'm starting to think
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: that Jacksonville is the is the play here just to
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: be a contrarian because and we did all be three
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: and a half and at the time, uh, we did
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: see early money on the Giants, and we figured that
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: probably was a little too high. Let's move to the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: solid number of three and just stay there. The ticket account,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: like you said, is about dead even on this one,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: So it's not like the public has really taken aside.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: But there are just a lot of insiders that have
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: been watching the Giants moves in the off season. They
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: have a whole new regimed coaching, Quon Barkley, the whole,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: and everyone's kind of jumping on. But I think just
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: too many people are just forgetting about how good Jacksonville
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: really was last year. So I think three three is
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: the right number here. M hmm. Nothing, Well, I just
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: feel like you make a good point about the number. Well,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I'm glad. I'm glad I got it at four, number one,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: number two. Uh. What intrigues me about the Giants isn't
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: so much that what they've done. It's what the public
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: thinks of the Jacks. There's too much attention on the Jacks.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I'm ever gonna bet on Blake Bortles as a road favorite,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: right bottom line, Well, you've never liked their logo too,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: so there's that against their logo. I feel like it's
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: kind of nondescript. I don't think anyone's ever going to
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: be like a fan of a two tone helmet that
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: looks sort of like there's ill defined. It's one of
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: those like Southeastern teams that nobody cares about. It's like
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the Titans can change their uniform all they want. No
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: one's ever gonna care about the Titans. I don't think
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the Panthers are ever gonna get a really huge fan base.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: The Jags forget about it, Like all those teams in
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: the Southeast. It's just not gonna happen for him. Yeah,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and I think this is one of the most intriguing
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: games for me to just to watch as just a
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: handicapper to see because there's so many expectations for the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Giants and Jacksonville has always had the expectations last couple
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: of years and kind of never quite lived up to them.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: So I'm really interested in this matchup. But from the
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: bookmaking standpoint of this particular game, that being that the
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: ticket counts dead even and the numbers of solid the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: uh probably not going to see a lot of movement
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: on it. Even the Falcons. Like the Falcons have been
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: around for ever, nobody cares about the Falcons, name like
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: five people outside of Atlanta who care about the Falcons.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: The only team from the Southeast that's ever resonated is
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: the Saints, and that's because they were so bad that
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, when they got good, people got excited.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: And then there was Katrina, so there was like a
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: national outpouring of sentiment for them, and people love Drew
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Brees and so like, that's why they have a national filing.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Other than that, there's no team from the Southeast that
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: can come out of it with the uniforms they have
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: and the logos they have. I agree with you. I
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: really yeah, no, I'm with you there. I mean, look
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: how good teams like the you know, the Panthers that
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: going to the Super bowls uh and still just nobody
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: believes in this team. So I agree with you. There's
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: just something about the Saints, like you said, that attracts people.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: They loved Drew Brees, they love the passing game, and
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: uh so so that is the only team. And for
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: us in particular, now that we have a casino and
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Bullocks in Mississippi, the Saints are the team down there.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: So uh, we're getting more Saints action than we've ever
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: gotten before. Nice blood. We're not just in Vegas anymore.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: You are bookmaker to the world, or at least bookmaker
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: to Nevada and Biloxi and yeah, and Mississippi and well
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: blox is in Mississippi, but we have two in Mississippi,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: So there you go. Yeah, it's slowly, but surely you're
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: reaching Listen, we're gonna go fast through these next two
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: craptastic games because um, they're the corner TV games. For
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: people who don't know the corner TV games, those are
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the ones that like Scooch puts on in the corner
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: of the sports book because nobody's gonna want to watch him,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: but some people might have bets on him, so he's
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: got to put them up. Uh, we're talking about Tennessee
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: in Miami. Yeah, I mean, uh, we opened two and
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: a half. We're down to one and a half on
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Tennessee there minus one and a half. But one of
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the least amount of bets on on on a game
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: on the board, This has the least amount of action
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: by far. Yeah, you know, why be because it's a
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: nondescript team against a really bad team. Uh, Cincinnati Bengals
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: at Indianapolis the culture minus three. They opened a two
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: and a half. If they went up, it's only because
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: people saw Andrew Luck through the football. But again, like
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: who cares cares about these teams? There's a couple of
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: wise guys that care. And we actually took some some
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: nice sized bets on Cincinnati. I was a little surprised.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, we did move it up because of Luck
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: just a little bit. Uh, and we're up to we
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: went up to three, and they took the three. So
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: we may end up need in Indianapolis. Although a lot
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: of parlay money is on the Colts, a lot of
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: the public feel that you know with Luck in there,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: that they're the team to beat here. People are stupid.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: That's just a dumb game to bet on. Tell me
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: how you really feel. Well, it's just like it's like
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: a bad team. I would actually bet on the Bengals
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: in this game just because they're getting the points, you feel.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: I feel like they're getting the points. I don't know
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: what Andrew Luck is going to be. I don't know
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: anything about his offense right now. I don't think he
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: has any good running backs. Um, their offensive line hasn't improved,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: like they're not just because Andrew Luck is back. They
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: still have the same personnel, the same offensive line that
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: got him hurt to begin with. It's just like it's
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: nothing better there the Bengals. Look at what the Bengals
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: could turn it around like they you know, they've been
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a playoff team with that, with that group, Yeah, I
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: think I I agree with you in on on every
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: front there. You look at what what the Giants did
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: and compare them to what Indianapolis did. One team did
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: a lot and Indianapolis did nothing. So why do we
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: have any faith in this team? None? I don't even
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: think you should put this game on a television set.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: It's a corner TV game, Like you said, the most Yeah,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: put it on by the buffet. Okay, New Orleans is
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: hosting Tampa Bay their ten point favorites. Boy, this one
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: is just getting so high. It's ridiculous. How can you bet?
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I listen, I love the Saints, you know, I bought
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: like a Saints to win this. We're both take it
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: at eighteen to one. I think they're the best team
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: in the conference. I have full faith in them, but
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I don't want to bet ten points. No, it's it's
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of points. This one got driven up with
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: the uh the jamis Winston suspension. So so the line
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: opened seven with that announcement, the line went up to
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. Everybody kind of jumped on it
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: from and then you have the public, like I said that,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: they like the Saints anyway, so just drove the number up.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: It's a tough number. I mean, as good as the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Saints are the first game of the season to lay
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: that many points, uh, that's a lot so u um.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: But then again, there's not a whole lot of people
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: that are going to back the Buccaneers and the wise
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: guys doing anything on this game or everyone just like
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the wise Guy's got New Orleans early at minus seven,
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half, and then, like I said,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: after the jamis Winston announcement. But they've done nothing since,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: nothing recent, and none of them have taken the Bucks,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: even at the higher number here, So it's we're gonna
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: be big Buccaneers fans the next game. I am so
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: excited about the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cleveland Browns because
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the Steelers opened to six and a half point favorites.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: It's now down to four as the Steelers are four
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road. I was all over the
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Browns at six and a half just because I feel
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: like that's a lot of points for anybody to have
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: to go on the road and win by now because
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: of all the hard knocks hype and everyone thinks, oh,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: this team isn't so bad, and they've been on national
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: TV like four times during the preseason and leviyan Bell,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: no one knows what's happening, so you don't know if
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get him at full strength or get him
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: on the field at all. So all of a sudden,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: this game's at four. Did it move to four? Because
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: of hard knocks, because of what was happening with the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Browns in the preseason, because of Levian Bell. Why didn't
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: it move mostly Leviyan Bell. There was an early move.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it was necessarily because of hard knocks,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: but there was just an early move. We opened that
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: as high as we thought we could, uh with Pittsburgh
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: on the road here minus six and a half. So
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: some of the sharp guys took six and a half
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: really early. Uh, but the levy On Bell uh was
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: really the thing that drove the line down to as
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: low as three and a half. So there was a
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: matter of fact, I think there's still some three and
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: a half's out out there. We're at four and a half.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: We did take the game down off the board, uh
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: most of yesterday. Uh so, I mean it was it
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: was mainly just to see whether or not we thought
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: he was gonna Levyan Bell was gonna be playing or not.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Uh still not in camp. Um. We hate getting into
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: a situation where we're taking some pretty large beds from
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: the wise guys at plus six and a half, then
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: go down to three and a half, and let's say
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Levan Bell does play and the public is gonna be
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh no matter what, whether Bell is in or out.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: So we just don't want to be in a position
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: where we're getting a ton of Parley money at minus
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: four minus four and a half, when we've taken all
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: of the sharp money at plus six and a half
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: and plus six, it just opens us up to a
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: big all. So I really don't like this game at all.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I just I don't want it to fall obviously. Uh so.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Uh the ticket count is about five to one Pittsburgh
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to Cleveland. Even with the publicity around hard Knocks and
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: and with Levy on Bell possibly not not playing, um so, uh,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the general public still sees a you know, an Owen
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: sixteen team here. Do you know how else you get
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: a big middle? How you go to the buffet at
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the Orleans I've got that. I didn't even go to
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: the buffet, and I've got the big middle. Do we
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: get sound effects at the New Cadence podcast? Do we
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: get like but ump bum wow? Yeah, we're so professional
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: now stepping it up. Minnesota is hosting the San Francisco
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers another one. This is such an interesting game.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: I've got a very strong opinion on this game. This
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: came open five. Now it's at six and a half. UM,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: when this and this moved recently because it was at
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: you lingering around five and a half for a long time.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I loved it at five and a half. I love
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the Vikings at five and a half in this game.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Why did it move to six and a half? Why
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: is all this money coming in on the Vikings? Who
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: is it? Well? I mean, we did open what we
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: thought would be on the low side, knowing that the
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: way San Francisco ended the season last year and the
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: way the general public felt about him. But there's two
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: teams at the general public both are in love with UH.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I mean that they're in love with Minnesota too, so UH.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: But I really, I really felt like we'd get a
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: little bit more money on San Francisco than what we did.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: It turns out both the public and the sharp guys
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: are on on Minnesota here. UM. I did feel like, UH.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Some of we talked about it in another podcast that
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I felt the UH season win total was a little
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: high with UH with San Francisco, and I thought that
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the hype in the way that they finished the season
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: last year, I, you know, it was just a little
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: little too much. Uh so. Uh, I mean, Minnesota's got
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: a great defense, best in the nfls and uh I
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: could understand the move, but I did think we'd get
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit more San Francisco money than what we did.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: I have to skip this game. I'd have to pass it.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I would not be able to bet in this game
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: at this number. But you'd like Minnesota earlier at the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: at the lower number. Right. As they say in the
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: sports betting business Scooch, you gotta get the best in
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: the number. Yeah, you do. You know, it's like the
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: stock market, you know, bye bye bye and bye low
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: and sell high. You know what? Um I forgot to
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: mention at the beginning of the podcast, you might like this.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Later on in the podcast, Mike Francessa is gonna come on?
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: We interviewed Mike Francessa. What do you really I don't
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: like it. He's good, he's good. I'll have to listen
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: to that. You already already did that one. Yeah, he
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: So you're gonna listen to the podcast. You're gonna listen
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: to the podcast. I'm gonna listen from Mike Francessa. We'll
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: have to tell you how to face Uh, let's move
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: on to the four o'clock games. We got the l
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: H Chargers, another team that the public is all over
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: just loving right now. Um, three and a half point
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: favorites over Kansas City. This game opened at three, it's
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: moved to three and a half. At this point, I
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: would say take the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, Uh, the
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know why the public doesn't
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: like this team. This is a really good team, and
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: and I expect them to be better than they were
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: last year. Um. I know that the they also loved
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, but uh, and they're the home home favorite,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: so I know we're gonna get public money on the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: home favorite. We always do. But uh, this is another
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: surprising one to me because I thought we'd get a
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: little bit more Chiefs money than what we did. You
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: know what's interesting to me, I don't know why you
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: guys give the Chargers any home field advantage at all.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: They're playing on like a see stadium that they can't
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: even fill. Yeah, there's no home there's no home field there.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: So basically what you're saying is that like they're like,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: this is this acentually a neutral field? To me? Yeah? Yeah, yeah,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: And I mean, there's really nothing that. Yeah, I don't
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: think there's three points favorite on a field. I think
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: maybe they're even I welcome the Chargers money here. I'm
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: we're at three. I know there's some three and a
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: half's out there, and I'm okay with needing needing the
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Chiefs in this one. I think there's a lot of
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: value on plus three. This next game, Arizona and Washington
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: is pick Arizona at home. And I can't think of
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: three interesting things to say about this game. It's just
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: two programs that are going in the wrong direction. So
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: there's not there's not a whole lot to get excited
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: about them. I mean, I guess the uh, the Cardinals
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: have Josh Rosen. Maybe Sam Bradford gets hurt and Josh
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Rosen plays um. Maybe Patrick Peterson runs an interception back
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: for a touchdown. May a b Jay Gruden's head explodes
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: when he realizes that having Kirk Cousins was better than
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: having Alex Smith. Yeah, I'd like to see that. But
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: is anybody even playing this game? Let me look at
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the bet totals right now. I can also in the
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Action Network app see the total number of bets. UM
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: not a lot of bets on this game. No, I
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: mean next to the other two corner games that we
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: mentioned that this is right up there with them. They
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: can make a run for the money on this being
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: another corner game. This actually has right now. If you're
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: talking about the three least beat games, you're talking about
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Miami is one, Washington Arizona two Since the in
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: d three. Wow, yeah, that's that's about what we got, uh,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Carolina Dallas. I think this is an interesting game as
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: opposed to the other one. I like the under. This under, Uh,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: it's been bent down quite a bit. There's so many
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: things to think about here, because, um it, it opened
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: it two and a half, it's now three. The under
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: was forty four, it's now forty two and a half.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Um I got the under at forty four, by the way,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: And UH like a lot of a lot of narratives
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: happening here, Cam Dak. Uh. The Cowboys offensive line is
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: in shambles. Um. The Panthers playing at home with nobody
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: caring because it's a Southeastern team, but they've got new ownership.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Uh tell me how you set this line and where
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: the wise guys are going? Well, I mean we have
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: them basically two very evenly matched teams. Uh that Uh,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: Carolina is really just the home field advantage of the
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: only thing that gives them the um um land land
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: points here is the only reason is because they're at home. Uh.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Our ticket account is almost dead even on this one. Uh.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot of wise guy money on
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: either side, and this one, I don't think there's any value,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: uh to to either side. It's basically a p come game.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: A lot of I mean there's a lot of interest
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: only because it's Dallas. Uh. People just follow this team
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: like uh, like they do the Lakers in basketball and
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: the Yankees in baseball, so they'll they'll always draw um,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of attention people just there's just a lot
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: of Dallas fans. But in terms of money on the game,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: uh not, I mean there's not a whole lot either
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: way here. That's that was a boring answer, Yeah, it was.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: That's Dallas. They're gonna they're gonna they're gonna get a
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: ton of money. They're gonna get a ton of money.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: They're a public team, like they're the the biggest public team. Well,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: you already covered Carolina. You cover all the teams in
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: the South that they're they just don't draw a whole
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: lot of attention. People don't like them no matter how
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: good they are. So true, Uh, here's an interesting game
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: to me, Denver in Seattle. Denver is a three point favorite.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: This game opened to two. You know you and I
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: talked about this previously in other versions of the podcast. Uh,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Denver got a ton of money, uh in the futures
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: market with wise guys coming in betting the Broncos down
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: from fifty one to thirty five to want to win
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I thought that was so utterly stupid
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: when I heard it, Like I couldn't believe people were
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: doing that, And then I thought about it. I'm like,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: their defense is amazing. They drafted really well, the defense improved.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: They signed case Keenum their quarterback and was so bad
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: last year. Anything that happens is an improvement. So if
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: you have like a middling quarterback, even with a really
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: good defense, all of a sudden you got a team
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: that could be on the make. Yeah. I mean this team,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: they take a good hard look at themselves and they
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I mean they just cut Paxton Lynch telling you that
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: they you know, here, here's a number first round draft
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: that we're willing to just part ways with because we
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: see a direction here. So um, that's the difference of
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, like, uh, of a program that you know
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: that the front office can really make moves that can
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: improve the team, and sometimes they have to make those
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: hard choices. Uh. So I I think some of the
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: sharp guys did see some potential here and they probably
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: saw a little little bit of value in terms of
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the line here. Again, there's nothing to really get excited
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: about Seattle with that. Here's a team that's been uh,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: you know, struggling the last couple of years with their
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: offensive line and their their defense was getting long in
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the tooth the last couple of years. And so uh,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Denver uh minus two and a half probably probably a
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: little value on Denver here went up to three. Uh.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Three seems to be the solid number. We're getting still
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: some some more Denver money than Seattle money. And uh,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: both from public and wise guys. When we play Scooch Roulette,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have some hard choices to make. You know,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I forgot all about Scooch Roulette to you know why,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: I wasn't think you know why you know why? Why? No?
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Because I keep winning Okay, do you know why I
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: keep winning? Tell me why I'm dying to here? Why
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: are you so disgusted with me? Is it me? Or
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: is it the fact that the Orleans is being robbed
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: as we speak? And You're like, I cannot believe I
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: have to do this podcast Instead of running to the
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Orleans to save everybody, I've got to go. I've got
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: to go be super Scoots right now, and instead I've
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: got to record this stupid podcast. All right. Um, I
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: always want to screw up because I'm a wise guy,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: and I know the numbers that you're making better than
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: you do. I know all the perspectives. Yeah, okay, sounds
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: good to me. The Chicago Bears opened as eight point
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: underdogs to the Green Bay Packers for the Sunday night game.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm a Bears fan. I normally would avoid
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: the Bears like the plague, but I am very high
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: on Khalil Mack. I like what I've seen from the
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Bears offense in the preseason. Uh, you must have gotten
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit of money unless you just moved that
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: half a point on the Khalil Mack signing or a trade.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: But um, that number feels high to me right now. Uh, yeah,
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: it was probably a little high. It was at eight
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: and a half. Uh, you know, it came over the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: wire got six o'clock in the morning Vegas time. Is
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: as I think when we got the alert with Khalil
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Mack and immediately after we got a we took a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: ten thousand dollar bet on on the Bears a plus
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: eight and a half and we moved it quickly to
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: eight and then we took some more money went down
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: that went down to seven and a half even with
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the sharp money on Chicago. And I agree with you,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Khalil back is just a phenomenal player. Uh, We're still
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: gonna end up needing the Bears in this one. It's
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: the late game Sunday nights the Green Bay Packers. Yes,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: it's a high line, we know it's high, but every
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: parlay is tied to the Packers. So, um, we probably
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: don't mind being a little heavy and straight bets on
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: in Chicago and this one. Um. But uh, and I
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: think that the value certainly is there or was there
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: with eight and a half and probably still is there
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: with seven and a half. Um. But uh, but but
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: still with the public play green Bay and we'll still
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: need the Bears. I might do the stupidest thing in
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: the world. And actually I have to pick the Bears
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: and the sculpture let just because I'm going to pick
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: them too. Oh, but go ahead, no no, no, no,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: no no. If you want them, if you want them,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: it's your podcast. If you want them, you have them.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: I'll find something else to do. I'll find something else.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: Why do we have like really bad Monday night games?
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: The Jets at the Lions. The Jets are six and
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: a half point dogs. What's that about. I don't think
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: there's I don't think they're bad. Well, one of them
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: might be. But the Rams and the Raiders, I think
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: it's a phenomenal Monday night games. I don't get excited
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: about that. I don't think the Raiders are gonna be
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: very good. I think it's I think it's a great
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: story just to see how good they are and and
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: going up against this Rams team that everybody was all
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: over last year. I think it's a great game to
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: to open up the season. But the Jets in Detroit.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I agree. But if you're gonna have two games and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: you want one to be a throwaway, make the early one.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: The Jets in Detroit I think the only the only
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: thing that I'd like to see is is Sam Donald.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: It's always interesting to see a rookie quarterback in his
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: first game. Uh, no matter how good or how highly
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: touted they are. Uh, the pace of the game is
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: just so much for uh a rookie quarterback and uh
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: going up against Detroit's defense, it's going to be a struggle.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: But uh, that's why the number is so high. We're
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: one of the only sevens in town on Detroit. Um.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: The money came in early on Detroit. UM, not a
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: whole lot. It's not it's not overwhelming, but the public
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: moneys on Detroit as well. So we're gonna need the Jets.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: I am dying for a reason to take the over
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, and I can't, you know, especially
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: like we talked about before with uh, you know, a
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback and going up against a good defense. It's
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: not a game you want to bet the over. I mean,
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: it could happen if you have a four or five
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: turnovers and get the over real quick with interception returns.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: But can't Detroit score forty five points alone with Matthew Stafford,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah they can. We're at forty five. I mean they
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: could easily rack up well. The Jets had a pretty
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: good defense though, so I don't know if they could
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: rack it up on their own. All right, I can't
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: can't give you a reason about there. I think you
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: know what's interesting in this game. I actually was really
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: feeling strongly about the Jets um at plus seven all summer,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: and then like for some reason, with Sam Donald starting,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I feel differently, do you know what I mean? Like
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: I watched the Jets team last year. Josh McCown kept
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: them in games through the first half and into the
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: second half. Their defense was really good. Um, they played
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: with a lot of heart, they didn't give up, and
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: they just weren't talented enough, but they could keep keep
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: games close enough throughout most of the game that like
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: you had a sweat going and it was always within
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: like a score one way or the other. Um. I
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: just and and I don't think the lines are very
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: good at all, and they haven't improved that I'm I'm
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: sort of just feeling like in a division with the Bears,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the Packers and the Vikings, the Lions are like a distant,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: distant fourth. But I can't get behind Sam Donald as
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: a seven point under Dug. Yeah, I think we're gonna
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: need more. You, I would need more if I'm gonna
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: if I'm gonna bet the Jets with Sam Darnald, I'm
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: gonna need more than seven points, all right. I've just
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: seen it too many times with a rookie quarter. Yeah,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't have any faith. Oakland is
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: hosting the Los Angeles Rams, everybody's favorite team. Boy, the
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: public loves the Rams. Right now, the Rams are on
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: the road as four point favorites. Where are the wise
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: guys on this game? They were on the Rams? This
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: This game moved more than any other game that we
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: put up on the board. We we opened up at
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: one and a half, and this thing just jumped and
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: just went way up. We just went to four this week.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: So it went to three about a week ago, went
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: to three and a half um just before the weekend,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: and then, uh, we just went up to four. And
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: it's all Rams money. Uh So, not that we need
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: a reason to be Oakland fans here in Las Vegas,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: but uh, we're Raider fans, I should say exactly, yeah,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: but but we're gonna be a big Raider fan And
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I think it adds to the story. You got Gruden's return.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: Every everyone wants to see that and they want to
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: especially now that he's trying to justify reasons for for
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: dealing Khalil Mack. It's and it's gonna be interesting to see.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: You know if if they have a winning season, is
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be a genius and without Khalil Mack and
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: then if he if they bomb, it's gonna be you know,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: why did you? Why did you get rid of him? So? Um,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: it's an interesting story and it's a nice way to
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: open the season. Excuse it's time to play everybody's favorite game,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: except maybe yours because you forgot all about it. Yeah,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette. In this game, you get one chance to
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: make the right pick. What's it gonna be? I like
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: the Bears. I think it's too many points. I would
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: have loved to get in that eight and a half.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably why you keep beating me too,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: because I keep getting the worst of the number. Why
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: is whyse guys always get the best of the number,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: not the number. That's why. That's why in this game,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Like I look, I love the Giants, but I don't
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: like it at plus three as much as I liked
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: it at plus four, So I'm not going to bet
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: that game. I actually like the Ravens now, but I
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: don't like it at seven and a half. Um, so
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: I so that takes that off the board. Um. I
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: liked the Broncos, but I liked them better at two
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: and a half than three. So the one game where
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: I still have a lot of confidence no matter what
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: the number is Houston Texans plus six and a half
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: against the New England Patriots. Nobody gets rich betting against
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick. Nobody wins Scooch Roulette betting against Bill Belichick.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: But I just feel like this team doesn't really have
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: great receivers right now. Their defense isn't that good. The
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Texans are getting Deshaun Watson back, They're getting JJ Watt back. Um,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: they're basically getting two you know, first rounders, uh in
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: one case the defensive MVP back into their team. And
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: this team is loaded with talent to me, so I'm
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: all over them. I think it's I think it's an
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: inflated number. I think you're you're making the book based
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: on the team they were last year, not on the
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: team they are now. Well, I hope you and I
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: both win because these are going to be two of
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: our biggest games on the board. I know the listeners
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: are like what you're going against New England and against
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: the Packers. If they're new, they're gonna learn how sharp
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: we really are or balloons and they'll never listen again.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: But that's called gambling, Scooch. Yeah, it is listen. Everybody
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: should stick around to hear Mike Francessa. Everyone should come
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: back next week to hear you. And yeah, it's great
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: to be back. I'm looking forward to this year. I'm
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: hoping that the Orleans is still open. I've got to run.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: I've gotta go check it out. See what's going on. Okay,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: good luck, go get the bad guys. All right, thanks,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: thanks Buddy. The man who created sports radio in New York,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Broadcasting Legend, just launched his new app mix on Everyone
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: should go downloaded and subscribe. Mike Francessa, how are you doing, Mike,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: how are you? Thanks for coming up my pleasure. So
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: first tell me about the app. Well, it's been in
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the works for a while. It's really a big part
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: of why I came back to Bloodcast Radio, and I
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: had this idea of doing something different for a while,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of mad I will produce a lot of content.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: I'll do my NFL show, my Football Sunday show, which
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: I've done on Sunday mornings for thirty years. I will
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: do that exclusively on the app. I'll do We'll do
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: a college football show on the app. We will also
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: be on before after enduring all the big events in
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: the next count of the year. Thirty years ago, you're
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: working with Jimmy the Greek right like, you're talking to
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: guys about gambling. You're in that world. How much could
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: you envision then what was going to be happening today?
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: You know, It's funny. Thirty years ago, I was even
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: starting the fan I started with those guys almost a
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: decade before that. It's almost forty years ago. I started
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: at the NFL Today in night So I was a
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: baby so and I worked with Brent Musburger and Jimmy
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: the Greek. I work closely with them. I wrote Jimmy
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the Greek syndicated column. The gambling in America is a
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: very different place now than it was then, that's for sure,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: all right. So, I remember when you were doing March
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Madness stuff on CBS. Do you guys want to talk
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: about gambling and the brackets and things like that. When
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: you were on that chat, it would have made it more.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: You know, in those days, it was completely taboo. I mean,
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: we used to sit there. Now, in those early years,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: people don't realize that CBS ESPN used to have the
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: games all day, and CBS on Thursday and Friday wouldn't
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: come on until they had eleven thirty game at night
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: and then they have all the games Saturday and Sunday
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: and the rest of the tournament. But we wouldn't have
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: those first two days in those early years of the tournament.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: But we would be sitting in a room, a room
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: what we called MP two where we would view all
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: the games, and we have all the games brought in,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: and there'd be people who would come visit us. You know,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Dan Rather would come in and sit down and watch games.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: Hunt the Thompson actually came in a couple of times
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: and watch games of date. So I mean, and he
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: was crazy, as everyone knows. But these guys we were
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: sitting there and talk about games and you know, who
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: was gonna win and upsets and everything else. But you
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: didn't talk about that stuff on the air. That was
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: completely taboo in those days. And you know, a couple
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: of things early on got me a lot of attention.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: One was picking seat in the hall to go, you
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: know with I MS and get the push, which we
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: got the on national attention. Another time, I picked ten
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Bowl games straight out and straight up against the spread
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: and straight up winners on ten to ten and actually
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: got written about, not only in newspapers, here have been
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Time magazine and stuff like that. There was a couple
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: of times where predictions seemed to further my brand early on,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: and I would pick upsets, and I would only pick
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: up sets if they were actually betting. I see, I
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: would never I would use the point spread while I
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: was making predictions. People would use the seeds. I would
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: use and say, that's not an upset, and maybe do
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: you know what I was talking about? But seven ten game, Hey,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: that team wasn't an upset. They were three points favorite.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: I knew that they didn't know that. So I would
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: pick legitimate upsets and call them upsets. And I was
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: using the point spread in those days they were using seeds,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: so it was a little different than you know, we
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: had different standards. Mike Leeboff, who you know who works
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: at Action, who started the legendary Francesicon, has already told
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: me that we are on opposite side of the Giants.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: I am all in on the Giants over. I think
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: the Giants can win the NFC East. I think the
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Giants can go to the super Bowl. You're not wrong.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I am on the same side. You're on the same side.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I think the Giants went over and I and have
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: already invested in that at six and a half. So yes,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: so a while ago, I happen to be of that opinion. Now,
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I think what's scaring people off? For twofold one. There
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: is this prevailing quote out of the year, I can't
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: play anymore, which is completely wrong, completely wrong. I know
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: I'm an Elis supporter. I like Eli Eli, I have
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: I have a very good relationship, But it's not that
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: I know we like can still play. I watched them.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: I know he can still throw the ball. The one
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: thing he has to do is he has to be protected.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have any escapability, he doesn't have any mobility.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: But I like the way they rebuilt this team this year.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: The key is the offensive line and the pass rush.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: The one thing I fear and I like them as
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: an over The one thing I fear is this. I
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: worry about teams that are marginal as far as playoffs,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: and I don't think the Giants are are a super
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: Bowl heavywhere I think there are. You know, they're teams
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: the number six and a half. They're not supposed to
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: go to the super Bowl. So I liked them as
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: a winning team this year. But what I worry about
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: is something can go south early. That Jacksonville game is
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: enormous because they play the roughest seven games you could
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: possibly play. They play seven teams, they're all good. They
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: play Jacksonville week one. If that game doesn't work out,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: the next two weeks they're in Dallas prime time and Houston,
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: which is a very good team, and then they don't
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: play the Saints. Then they go at Carolina Thursday night,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at home, and then Monday night in Atlanta. That's
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: a brutal schedule. Three prime time games, four road games,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: seven tough games. They have to win that first week
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: or this thing could cascade on them. If they can
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: just be three and four, they will win ten games.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I think that the most crooked line on the board
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in Week one is Jags as a road favorite against
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: the Giants. I have already bet the Giants as home underdogs,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: and I will say this, I agree with you on
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: the game, but I'll tell you this, not only is
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: it a good bet, but it's a must win. The
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Giants have to have that game. The schedule plays so
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: much against them if they don't get that game, because
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: the Dallas game is gonna be tough, as you know,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: and the Houston game is gonna be one of the
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: harder games on the schedule. On three playing the Saints,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: this isn't gonna be over. You can't go on floor
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: in this league and win because what happens is everything fractures.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Every little problem becomes a big problem. Every little injury
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: becomes a big injury. Just like if you can be
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: four and oh, teams are already good become good when
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: they're four and old because they buy in. In football,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: you must buy in as a group. And that's why
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: good starts are imperative in the NFL, and that schedule,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: I think is scaring everybody off. The six and a
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: half as a joke. As far as I'm concerned. Two
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: other teams, the Saints and the Texans, they happen to
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: be two teams where I am holding one tickets to
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl in my pocket right now. How
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: much do you think the Saints the way they ended
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: the season last year impacts then early and what do
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: you think of the Saints at stants have a chance.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: I just don't expect the Saints to put it together.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: I think something happens. I don't trust them. I don't
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: trust them as a team and don't trust him as
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: a defense. The one problem I have with Euston I
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: was the biggest biggest supporter on my show of Clemston.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: I picked him within a national championship a couple of
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: years ago when they did when no one had even
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: talked about them the first year. And Deshaun Watson, who
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: I said should have won the Husmansophie twice. I did
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: not think he was going to have the success he
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: had in the pros because I thought the way he played,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: he would get hurt and he would be extremely vulnerable
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: and may go the way of an of a griffin.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: I still fear that with him. I think the way
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: he exposes himself two hits and the way he plays,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have a hard time staying healthy. He's got talent.
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: We know that, but I thought he would have a
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: rough time in the pros. He scares me. I just
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: think he's very vulnerable to being hurt all the time.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: That's what scares me about the Texans. Texans are talented, um,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: But I think the teams that are gonna be very
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: interesting in the a f C. If the Ravens get
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: any offense, their defense could be the best defense in
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: the league. They're gonna be, and they're world coached. They
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: could be a team that's better than people think. And
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: everyone's talking about the charges, which I never believe in,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: So that's a weird one. But Kansas City's offense could
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: be very interesting to watch because the strong, long quarterback
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: with all those weapons, that could be fun to watch
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: that a f C West. I don't know who I'm
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: buying there. The wise guys, the professional betters. They have
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: actually bought the Broncos down from about fifty to one
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: to thirty five to one, a little bit lower in
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of places to win the Super Bowl, which
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: was shocking. But I don't know where to go in yet.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Everybody likes the charge. The real NFL guys are talking
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: of the charges big time. I don't believe in the charges.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: They never do. They have talent, absolutely, but something always
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: goes wrong. I think Andy Reid people always look away
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: from them because he has so many problems. He's become
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the Mrty Schottenheimer of this generation. You know, there's three
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: coaches who did so well in the regular season and
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: was struggled in the postseason. Chuck Knox, did Morty Shot Nima,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: and now when he read I think though he's always
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: good in the regular season, they have a world of
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: talent when you talk about having the receivers they have,
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: with the tight end they have, and the running back
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: they have with now a quarterback who could throw the
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: ball ninety yards of the air and you know has
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: a arm you know, left by God. I mean, he's
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: gonna make mistakes, but that could be a very interesting offense.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: And Andy's very good in the regular season. I just worry.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Is he gonna drivet Andy re Nuts. Yeah he will,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: but Andy will buy in when he sees how productive
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: this will be. And really the drop stire gonna have
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: to take to protect the speed at the outside receivers
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: means the tight end and the running back are going
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: to have a party. Absolute party up or down on
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams. I'm gonna stay down from this standpoint.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Everybody is canonizing them. Everyone's a ready, acting like they're
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: in the super Bowl. I'm not buying it yet. Also,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I just don't think they're ready yet. I just think
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: you have to show me more. I would be more
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: confident that the Atlanta Falcons bounce back, then the Rams
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: step up. Minnesota Vikings up or down. They're good. They
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: have a lot of players. Their defense is very solid.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: They should be very solid. I don't think they're a
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: championship team, but I think they're definitely a playoff team.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: I love the Vikings. I didn't buy a super Bowl
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: ticket on him. I have them winning over ten games.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Their defense, like you said, is ridiculous, and it's the one.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: It's sort of the better's stat, right. Yards per play
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: is the stat that every better pays attention to you
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: when you look at the box square. It's the best
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: indicator of like how a team performed, regardless of the score.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: Their yards per play on defense is insane. You get
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, you get the running back back, you get
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins playing in an offense that is much more consistent,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: that has better management than the Redskins ever did, and
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: a defense that can support him. That's a team that
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: has a lot of upset. Kirk Cousins has to show
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: me he's a winning quarterback. What sticks in my head
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: is the night all we had to do was have
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: one drive to make the playoffs and he couldn't do
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: it against the giant team that people play for. He
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: went way down in my book that night, bad pick
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: at the end of the game. That's the night he
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: has to drive his team to the playoffs and there
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: was no reason not to, and he didn't, And that
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: stuck in my head. I don't like quarterbacks who don't
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: put up in those spots. That's like will you make
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: during INTERNFL weekend? You know, it varies, it really depends.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: I've even sometimes now gone to in game stuff, which
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: in the beginning I stayed away from. But some of
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: the values are outrageous, absolutely outrageous, you know, and you
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: can continually make them. I mean, you know, you can't
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: put big money on them. They don't let you. There's
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: there's always a limit. It's not that you can't make
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: a big bet on them, but or what you consider
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: a big bed okay, but the thing is you can
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: bet every three or five minutes. You know, whenever the
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: stop as the plays are, they're gonna keep changing him.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: I don't like how hard they hit you with the
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: big on those And that's one of the things that
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: I don't like about what they've gone to now is
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: they like trying to really charge you as much as
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: they possibly can. They try to get too many bets
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: off at one twenty and one twenty five or one thirty.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: And anybody who knows that if you are a player,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: you cannot win at those odds, you know, the thing
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: that wipes you out to begin with is the is
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: the Big. The Big is always gonna get you. It
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: makes you have to play a fifty to break even
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: or to even have any appreciable you know, advantage. Uh.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: And you can't live playing at one thirty and one forty,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: and they try to make you play at at least
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: one all the time on those games. Their breakage is
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: way too big. I think I think they've taken too
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: big a chunk now. When those breakages way too big
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: because they think people are gonna do it and they're
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: gonna take it, then then it is way too much.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: They're taken way too big a bite. Now, I don't
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: disagree with you at all, it's really really hard to
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: do it. Do you feel like the media is going
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: to change the way sports betting is talked about and
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: covered with the new rules, with the new laws, with
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: the new opportunities, Like look, I left this and then
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: I work at Action Network. Now it's gonna become much
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: more commonplace. It's not gonna happen overnight. And you can
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: see how slow some of these states aren't even move.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: They're not you know, California's talking about it might not
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: even be on the balance. It's not twenty one. So
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: they're in no hurry. And the money will not be
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: as much as people think in the beginning, because it's
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be very difficult to chase guys from. And I've
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: told people that you know people in sports who are
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: so naive about betting. It's unbelievable. The numbers they put
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: talk about nationally that are waged on sports are low
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: by three to five hundred percent. It's debt that much more. Like,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: how do I know that? Because I know the volumes
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: that some bookmakers taken, and the volume is enormous. I said,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: tell me about the biggest bet you've ever made. Why
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: I don't like to talk about because you know what,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: First of all, it's personal. Secondly, you know what if
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: you did well, ever you it sounds like Breggan. So
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: I don't like to talk about gambling that way. I'd
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: rather just talk about picks, wins and losses rather than money.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Money is not the is not the issue. But I
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: like the wage you're on golf. First of all, it's
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: a very challenging handicapping science because so many people can win. Secondly,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: you're only looking for long shots. You know you're not
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: gonna go in there and bet Dustin Johnson has six
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: and one. You know it's not worth it because you
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: need to get a pay off. So I'm looking at guys.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: But what you can get is you can get live
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: guys at thirty sixty eight to one. I've got guys
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: this year at sixty one. I'll tell you right now.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: I had kept good eighteen to one. I got in
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: the last major. Like ket I've got three guys, and
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: I got kept good at eighteen to one. He was
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: my my short guy. I usually got two to three
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: guys and I will bet one guy was a real
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: long shot. I'll bet one that's an intermediate eighteen to
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: twenty years who I think they'll really win, and then
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: I'll bet it in between guy. But I really like it.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: And my rule of thumb is there'll be times where
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: I'll go with a guy just because I think he's
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: playing the best. I thought kept was playing the best
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: in the world. But I like horses for courses. I
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: look at guys and I will take the last five
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: years and the guy will have to have played well
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: in that tournament and he will have to play well.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: I hit Bubba Watson twice this year. Why because Bubba
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: only wins on three courses. So if you know, uh,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: every once in a while, Bubba is gonna come up.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: It's gonna win the Masters, He's gonna win Rivieria, He's
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: gonna win at the Greenbriant. There's a couple of places
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: where Bubba will win. You know, he wins a couple
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: of times. He wins up in Connecticut too. Up there,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: there's only Bubba only wins on three or four courses. Really,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: most of his big wins in his life have been
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: at the Masters, in the Riviera. That's pretty much it
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: all right. People want more, they can go to the
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Mike's on app. Thanks my friends, good to see you
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: in good Luck. Thank you. I want to thank everybody
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: for coming on the podcast today, Mike, Francessa, Bob Scucci.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: At the very beginning, it was Jeff Schwartz and Paula
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Duke and black Jack Fletcher. Don't forget coming up Friday
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: and the Favorites. Me and black Jack will secure five
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: picks for the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest that will
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: win US one million dollars by the end of the season.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to episode one of the Favorites, Bida