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Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 🚀 + Stock Market News 11 July 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And I was so freaking excited by the data we just got in that I forgot to turn on the live stream.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Seriously, if you are not celebrating, I don't know what's wrong with you.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Maybe you haven't heard the good news yet.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: The good news is there is apparently a conga line going down Wall Street, being led by the Fed chair, jerome Powell, because inflation, my friends, is a thing of the past.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: It is transitory.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: There are flags hanging outside the Fed saying we was right.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Inflation is indeed transitory.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: This is precisely what we were hoping for.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: This is exactly what's going to keep the rally going.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: More than absolutely anything here, tasty of 20 is asking has anybody here purchased the training and rules from Felix?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I'm sure some of you have.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: There's a bunch of students I recognize on the chat here, so feel free to obviously have a chat with each other, and let me share my screen with you as I put myself in the corner here.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Look at this, look at this.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: This is glorious.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I'm going to color code this green for good.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Core inflation 0.1% less than expected.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Year-on-year inflation rate core 3.3% less than expected.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: The actual inflation rate month on month is minus, minus 0.1%.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: We have deflation, my friends.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Prices are tumbling.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Things are getting cheaper.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It is the first time this has happened to this extent since 2004.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Seriously so inflation rates down to 3%.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: It's going to keep coming down every month that we go through this, because the old, higher numbers will kind of get out of the picture out of the last 12 months.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And yeah, we got some jobless data out here which you know President Biden made up this morning, and you know what Nobody cares, nobody is going to be interested that the jobless claims are 8,000 lower than predicted or whatever.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: No one cares, completely irrelevant.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The only thing we care about today is a negative inflation rate of 0.1% Because and yes, of course, in the real world I appreciate prices have gone up far more than wages and that hasn't changed and that isn't going to change anytime soon.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: And being a wage slave still sucks and all of that.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: But for the market, for us traders, for us investors, this is precisely what we wanted.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: This essentially guarantees a year-end rally, no matter who wins the White House or any of that.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: This basically guarantees a year-end rally, and let me walk you through why Before I do.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Do you know that we are up like 50% on our portfolio?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: We run a $30,000 teaching portfolio Nice and small, easy to manage, relatable all that sort of thing.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: She's friendly.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: We made $16,217 so far on that, which is 50% plus returns.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: If you want to know how we do that, I will teach it to you.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Three days next week we're running the first ever three-day masterclass on Tuesday, wednesday and Thursday 8 pm, eastern time.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a free ticket, as many of you already have, and we're going to have a blast and you'll walk away knowing when to open trades, how to automate the profit taking and the risk management and much, much more.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: And you can come with lots of questions related to how we do this and everything else.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So head over to phoenixfriendsorg slash masterclass and Winston, and I will teach you the wisdom of Winston, my golden retriever, if you didn't realize.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's go a little deeper here.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: We always dive a little deeper on this little community and guess what?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: What have you got?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: This is a bit too small for you, isn't it?
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that the blue thing is so.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: This means it's falling, so energy prices are falling.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: The only thing that's actually going up a tiny bit is food.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So this is what's going up food.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, just about.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: And the other thing that's going up is core services.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Now, a lot of core services is automobile insurance.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: About half of that increase is automobile car insurance.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So get yourself a Tesla robotaxi subscription when it comes out and you won't have to worry about car insurance again because you won't need to own one.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Seriously, that's what's going to happen.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: The next generation which sounds like a Wyclef Jean song, doesn't it?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: The next generation is not going to own cars.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And that might sound weird because, especially in the US, I know a lot of people take great pride in their cars but they won't see the point because you press a button and there'll be one there in two minutes and you don't need to look after it and charge it and do any of those things.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: And some people are going to own cars and they're going to make money out of them because it'll be like an asset that they can sweat and they'll feed it back into that pool of self-driving vehicles.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So big changes coming up there, but yeah, the whole year on year.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Basically, the only thing still going up in blue here is core services.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: As I said, most of, or a lot of that is car insurance.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: But good surprises are falling, seriously falling, and what's the impact of that.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I just took a screenshot of this.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: It just changed a minute ago.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: This is the likelihood of a September rate cut, and it's not some sort of clipboard wielding nutter on Wall Street who's asking the bankers.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: It's actually a traded instrument.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: You can trade Fed fund futures, which is a really, really weird thing to trade, but you can, and we now have a, which is a really really weird thing to trade, but you can, and we now have a.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: An 86,.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Somebody help me out.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: 87%, an 87% probability of a rate cut this very September.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: And yesterday that was 12% lower.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: And this is just.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: You know most of the bankers, let's face it.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: They're still hungover, they've still got, you know, sugar on their nose.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: That's what they tell their moms and you know don't know what the heck's going on yet, and people will explain it to them in a morning meeting and then they'll start to get it and people will start to act on this.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: But this is the exact news that we've wanted Rate cuts, my friends are coming and even before the rate cuts.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I put together a few bits of data that I think are important for you to understand.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Stacey thinks Winston should write a book.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: That's a great idea.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: This is why, as I say, the rally has long, beautiful, slender legs because, yes, she is expensive to run.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: That's the Nvidia price, share price.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: And the nutter who made this chart thought I've got three lines to put on here.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I've got all the colors in the world.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: How about I use blue and blue?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I mean seriously get out more.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: And then you've got forward earnings per share.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: That's what that is.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So that is EPS earnings per share in that dark blue.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: And you can see they're basically moved together.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA actually has.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: And then he used gray.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I mean he really must have been a very sad, miserable banker who made this analyst right.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So this down here, that gray line is the forward.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: That means next year's PE.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So the PE multiple, you would think, has gone through the roof as NVIDIA has exploded.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: It hasn't?
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: It's actually cheaper now.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is cheaper now than it was in 2023.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Crazy, huh.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So because NVIDIA's profits have gone up so much.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: So there is some real fundamental stuff under this rally, not just a nice, pretty picture or nice legs.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: And then I can't spell legs and yes, the legs might be beautiful but they might get a little tired unless Nvidia surprises us.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So we're expecting, and this is what's going to drive the rest of the year.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: We're expecting for the second quarter a hundred and ten 11% increase in sales for NVIDIA 1, 1, 1, and then 73 and then 56 and so on.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So the market is thinking, okay, yeah, they're still going to grow a lot, but it's going to slow down to more kind of normal sort of company.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And 11% is still crazy.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Now they're likely to beat that, but the question is by how much?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: And we're unlikely to see these 260% growth numbers again.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's fairly unrealistic.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So therefore, you know, the speed at which the stock is going to accelerate might slow down just a little bit.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Thank you also for using blue, chris.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I thought that might make it a little bit clearer.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Don't you think we should have three blue lines on a chart here?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Stajci, you forgot to set a stop loss yesterday.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Ouch, 35%.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: How big was your trade?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: My friend?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: That sucks.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: You want to?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Was that just one trade that was that big of your portfolio?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I always urge people to make trades no bigger than 5% of their portfolio.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So when you do cock up, which inevitably we all do, then it's a modest kick in the teeth rather than a 35% kick in the teeth.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Risk management is so, so, so big.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: And Christian yeah, absolutely, christian is one of my students.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: He says your trade is probably too big, so big.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: And Christian yeah, absolutely, christian is one of my students.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: He says your trade's probably too big, precisely so, if you make it two, two or 5% of your portfolio and I know it's not helpful right now, and I you know you'll what I would say to you is take a step back, maybe even close out all your trades and just go and paper trade for a couple of weeks and just see how you feel, because you're in an emotional place right now and the last thing you want to do is try and make up for the losses, because that's usually what ends up in really, really bad scenarios.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So go back to your rules, make sure they're watertight, dot your I's and your T's and make those trades smaller.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Please Smash the like button.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Guys Absolutely appreciate that.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: My retirement is safe.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, so you have a smallish account you trade with, I presume, but still you're going to want to make those individual, individual trades smaller.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Time to revenge trade.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: No, please don't revenge trade.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: That's the worst thing.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: When people say I need to make this back.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I'm like you are not allowed to trade.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: That's the.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: That's always the rule.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: If you want to make something back, stop trading because you're going to make it a lot worse.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: You need to get in there with a positive, forward-looking head.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Now we also have the big guys, the Metas, the Microsoft, the Googles, the Amazons and we are still expecting pretty good growth 19% for Meta, 15% for Microsoft, 13% for Google, 11% for Amazon.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: But 19% for Meta, 15% for Microsoft, 13% for Google, 11% for Amazon.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: But you'll notice that the growth is less than last quarter for sales growth, and then we're expecting that to come down even more into the following quarter.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: So the speed of this rally might slow down a little bit, except for small tech stocks, I would imagine.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I think small caps are going to go party and conga down Wall Street with Jerome Powell, because interest rate cuts will benefit those guys.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Particularly banks should also be celebrating.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: And then a lot of people are saying, well, we've been in this bull run for so long, it can't go on any longer.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Well, can you see the beautiful green here?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: This is an optimistic individual, right?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Unless he took some LSD before he made this chart, which is also possible, and the greens are the bull runs, the red are the bear markets, and you can see that the bull runs are typically much, much, much longer than the bull runs.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So, judging from history, it wouldn't be unusual for us to, you know, bull run some more for some period of time.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm feeling very, very optimistic right here.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So, as it says, emotional traits are hard, you're right, but I see your traits somewhere large.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But it's always relative to how much money you've got in other portfolios, right?
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So I run a small teaching portfolio and sometimes I do a trade that's a little bit larger than that, but it's a small amount of money for me, right?
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So that's the important thing is how much is it of the overall?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And, as Travis says, avoid big losses, keep them small.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: The greed is what makes it harder for you, right.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So much much better to make lots of small profits and the occasional loss on the small trades and get there gradually than hope for the one thing that's going to blow it out of the water, because if that goes against you or you screw it up, you're going to have a tough time for a few months to make that back right.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: So, 35% down, how much do you need to go up by what is that down?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: How much do you need to go up by?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: 50-something percent, right?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: You need to recover by.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: So you need to gain 50%.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: That's an uphill battle.