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Trump Goes Back on Hormuz Fee In Favor of US Investment · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
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  Speaker 2: We try to distill what we just heard from the
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  Speaker 2: FED chair. Not a lot of surprises and no major news.
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  Speaker 2: As he tried to make clear in his first of
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  Speaker 2: two days of testimony, that there will be FED independence
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  Speaker 2: from this White House and price stability. In many cases,
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  Speaker 2: he had trouble answering some questions about the changes to
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  Speaker 2: communication and the style in which this FED will take
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  Speaker 2: its posture toward the public and toward Congress, though, as
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  Speaker 2: he said clearly when asked, we have no intention of
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  Speaker 2: trying to hide the ball.
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  Speaker 3: Here's the FED share from his opening remarks.
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  Speaker 4: The task for this generation of policymakers and of individuals
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  Speaker 4: and households in the private sector is to ensure that
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  Speaker 4: the American economy excels far into the future. Now at
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  Speaker 4: the FED, our number one objective is getting monetary policy right.
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  Speaker 3: That's our clear.
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  Speaker 4: And constant aim.
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  Speaker 3: The star, we steer by and.
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  Speaker 4: If we get policy right, and I can assure you
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  Speaker 4: we will, the inflation surge of the last five years
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  Speaker 4: will be a thing of the past.
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  Speaker 2: So when you look to eight thirty this morning and
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  Speaker 2: the CPI report showing prices declining in June for the
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  Speaker 2: first time in six years, there is some encouragement here
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  Speaker 2: in the markets. Of course, watching and listening along with
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  Speaker 2: us is Bloomberg's Michael McKee, and he's still live on
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  Speaker 2: Capitol Hill with us right now. To try to distill
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  Speaker 2: what we just heard, Mike, It's great to see you.
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  Speaker 2: No mission accomplished, was the message from this fed share.
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  Speaker 2: Is this consistent today with what we heard in his
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  Speaker 2: confirmation hearing.
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  Speaker 5: It's pretty consistent basically. You know, Joe, Here in Washington
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  Speaker 5: we get sometimes hearings with heat and sometimes hearings with light,
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  Speaker 5: and today we kind of had neither one. It was
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  Speaker 5: a welcome to the Hill, We'll see you often over
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  Speaker 5: the next four years kind of meeting. Both parties were
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  Speaker 5: generally very polite to him. Nobody yelled at him, nobody
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  Speaker 5: complained about his policies, because, as he said over and
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  Speaker 5: over again, I've only been here for seven weeks, and
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  Speaker 5: certainly the Fed's policy decision at the last meeting in
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  Speaker 5: June would have had no effect on CPI today. The
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  Speaker 5: one thing he did not answer that all of Wall
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  Speaker 5: Street wanted him to answer was not are you going
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  Speaker 5: to target inflation and bring it down? He's already said
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  Speaker 5: that and that's the Fed's job, But how are you
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  Speaker 5: going to do that? He dodged questions on whether they
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  Speaker 5: would raise interest rates, and he dodged questions about whether
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  Speaker 5: they would use the balance sheet. The closest he came
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  Speaker 5: at one point was saying that he didn't want to
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  Speaker 5: prejudge what his committee members would say when they discussed
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  Speaker 5: the extent and timing of any future moves. Now you
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  Speaker 5: could read into extent and timing talking about perhaps a
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  Speaker 5: rate increase, but he wouldn't go so far as to
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  Speaker 5: say that's even on the table at this point. No
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  Speaker 5: forward guidance was his mantra, and no forward guidance is.
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  Speaker 3: What we got.
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  Speaker 2: Interesting when we look at the headline index of three
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  Speaker 2: and a half percent from a year earlier, Mike, there
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  Speaker 2: was some encouraging signs that gas prices, oil prices were
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  Speaker 2: coming down. Now that they're going back up with a
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  Speaker 2: resumption in the war with Iran.
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  Speaker 3: What could this look like a month from now.
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  Speaker 5: Well, it could look like kind of the same thing
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  Speaker 5: in the sense shoe that we will see gasoline prices
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  Speaker 5: rise again and probably other goods prices rise again. The
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  Speaker 5: folks over at gas Buddy were saying we'll see four
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  Speaker 5: dollar again as a nationwide average within the next week.
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  Speaker 5: But that doesn't change anything for the FED from the
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  Speaker 5: picture it basically has right now that inflation is still
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  Speaker 5: too high. Yes, it came down, but it's still running
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  Speaker 5: at a three and a half percent rate annually, and
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  Speaker 5: that's way above the two percent target that Kevin Warsh
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  Speaker 5: today over and over and over.
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  Speaker 3: Again said they would get to.
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  Speaker 5: So it's going to Maybe the CPI today maybe takes
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  Speaker 5: it off the table for July twenty ninth, but it's
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  Speaker 5: definitely going to be a factor going into the September.
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  Speaker 5: At October meetings.
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  Speaker 2: Interesting, you know, the President was asked about the CPI.
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  Speaker 2: He was talking at the same time in the Oval
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  Speaker 2: Office while Cheer worsh was testifying Michael McKee. He said,
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  Speaker 2: the report just came out. We're doing a great job.
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  Speaker 2: Remember that for the midterms. Prices are coming way down.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to bring them much lower. Yet how will
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  Speaker 2: he do that considering the state of politics in the
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  Speaker 2: Middle East.
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  Speaker 5: Well, the thing that presidents don't tell you you is
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  Speaker 5: they really can't affect the economy in a short run
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  Speaker 5: kind of fashion. No president can. They get the blame
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  Speaker 5: because they're in office. They get the credit if things
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  Speaker 5: go well. But there isn't much the administration can do
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  Speaker 5: at this point except get out of the war and
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  Speaker 5: bring oil prices down. But other sticky prices which Kevin
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  Speaker 5: Warshi acknowledge today he wants to target, are going to
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  Speaker 5: be there for a while because companies are still trying
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  Speaker 5: to make up their costs. Also, don't forget we haven't
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  Speaker 5: talked about the new tariffs that are coming in a while,
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  Speaker 5: and those are going to have an effect as well.
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  Speaker 5: Maybe certainly not as much of an impact as the
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  Speaker 5: first round of tariffs because they were so broad, but
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  Speaker 5: that will raise prices on some goods too, and so
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  Speaker 5: all that has to work its way through the system.
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  Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
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  Speaker 2: more coming up after this.
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  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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  Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
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  Speaker 2: We have to bring you up to date on what
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  Speaker 2: is happening in Iran. President Trump making quite a bit
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  Speaker 2: of news today, taking to truth Social to announce his
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  Speaker 2: plans to back away from the twenty percent charge fee
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  Speaker 2: or toll, whatever you wanted to call it. He calls
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  Speaker 2: it a reimbursement on shipments through the straight of hor
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  Speaker 2: moves that he floated yesterday, widely panned as impractical. He
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  Speaker 2: was asked about this as a matter of fact in
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  Speaker 2: the Oval Office a short time ago, and apparently the
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  Speaker 2: phone was ringing. He said that he heard from a
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  Speaker 2: number of countries in the region, golf Arab leaders calling
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  Speaker 2: him to offer instead investments into the United States, and
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  Speaker 2: he has chosen to pivot on this. Here's the President
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  Speaker 2: from a short time ago in the Oval Office.
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  Speaker 6: I gave him a chance. I wanted you get them
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  Speaker 6: a chance at making a deal. You know, we had
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  Speaker 6: a deal two days ago. It was done, and then
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  Speaker 6: all of a sudden, they couldn't do it. They didn't
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  Speaker 6: like something about the deal. They couldn't do it, and
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  Speaker 6: they shot first. And that was a big mistake that
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  Speaker 6: they shot first, because we have been knocking the ail
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  Speaker 6: out of them.
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  Speaker 2: And says that we will continue to do so, adding
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  Speaker 2: on truth social quote, I have decided to replace the
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  Speaker 2: twenty percent United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment
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  Speaker 2: deals that the various Gulf states will be making into
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  Speaker 2: the United States. He says these investments will be massive,
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  Speaker 2: but at the same time extraordinarily good for them and
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  Speaker 2: their future. He did, in fact qualify this more specifically
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  Speaker 2: when asked in the Oval Office, he said, you have
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  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, Uae, Cutter, Bahrain, and Kuwait primarily, and then others.
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  Speaker 2: Jenny Welch joins US now geo economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics,
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  Speaker 2: covering all of this here from Washington.
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  Speaker 3: Jenny, it's great to see you. How is this going
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  Speaker 3: to work now?
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  Speaker 2: And it does run mind us of a time when
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  Speaker 2: Mexico is going to pay for the border wall, and
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  Speaker 2: he says they did through trade deals.
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  Speaker 3: Is this a similar approach?
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  Speaker 7: I think we're taking this with a pretty big grain
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  Speaker 7: of salt, especially considering the US already has traded investment
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  Speaker 7: deals inked with these countries, many of them last year
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  Speaker 7: during Trump's trip to the region. I think this is
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  Speaker 7: a little bit of an out a way of pivoting,
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  Speaker 7: and at the end of the day, the main group
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  Speaker 7: that's going to be paying for this is going to
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  Speaker 7: be the US taxpayer.
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  Speaker 3: Okay, so it's back to inflation.
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  Speaker 2: Where we started our conversation this hour with Chair worsh
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  Speaker 2: give us your broad view on what's happening in the
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  Speaker 2: Strait right now. The President saying in that same post
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  Speaker 2: that we have a blockade back in effect, but it's
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  Speaker 2: for Iran only. Can we use a scalpel to that
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  Speaker 2: extent in the Strait of Foremones.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think this is largely returning to the operations
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  Speaker 7: that existed before the Mouka just a few weeks ago,
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  Speaker 7: and the US has maintained forces in the region, should
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  Speaker 7: be able to snap those back in place relatively quickly.
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  Speaker 7: Blockades starting again later today. I think one of the
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  Speaker 7: questions we're looking to see though, is beyond the blockade,
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  Speaker 7: is there going to be more escorting of vessels through
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  Speaker 7: the street to kind of guarantee that safe passage. Those
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  Speaker 7: operations are very expensive, they're very risky. The US only
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  Speaker 7: engaged in true naval escorts under Project Freedom for about
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  Speaker 7: a day or so before pulling that operation down. So
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  Speaker 7: if the President is really keen on fully reopening the street,
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  Speaker 7: it would probably require those more intensive operations, but again,
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  Speaker 7: huge risk, huge costs.
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  Speaker 2: So when we hear about the US escorting six vessels
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  Speaker 2: through the straight overnight, transponders off what kind of military
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  Speaker 2: presence are we talking about here? This is fighter jets, helicopters,
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  Speaker 2: air cover of any are we actually sailing through the
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  Speaker 2: strait alongside them?
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  Speaker 8: I think that's where there's a spectrum of options.
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  Speaker 7: It can be everything from providing ships a sense of
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  Speaker 7: here are the routes to take, to we will actually
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  Speaker 7: provide you some surveillance and eye in the sky capabilities
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  Speaker 7: to give you a heads up on whether threats are
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  Speaker 7: coming your way, to overhead actual security coverage, to yes,
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  Speaker 7: the physical escort by naval vessels.
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  Speaker 8: That last step is.
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  Speaker 7: You know, it really brings you to a much larger
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  Speaker 7: but much more expensive package, and a very risky one
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  Speaker 7: because if you're going to put ships in the street,
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  Speaker 7: you're going to need to provide them additional protection on
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  Speaker 7: top of that, which is again why that Project Freedom
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  Speaker 7: operation ended up being relatively shortly.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, not even a day, as we recall.
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  Speaker 2: So we're back at war. The president's notified Congress. So
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  Speaker 2: it's not only back before the MoU. It's back to
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  Speaker 2: the first couple of weeks of kinetic action. Here another
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  Speaker 2: day of trading strikes. Do you expect this will continue
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  Speaker 2: until further notice? And where are we coming up with
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  Speaker 2: all of these targets now that we've in many cases
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  Speaker 2: already hit.
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  Speaker 7: Yes, I think we're returning to a lot of tactics
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  Speaker 7: that have already been tried in earlier phases of this conflict.
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  Speaker 7: And I think our view would be, in a sense,
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  Speaker 7: the war never really ended. There was a ceasefire, but
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  Speaker 7: there were still strikes through that ceasefire phase. The MoU
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  Speaker 7: itself was relatively shaky, and we saw skirmishing happen relatively
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  Speaker 7: soon after it was signed. This is just a continuation
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  Speaker 7: of that limbo, And what we would say is that
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  Speaker 7: we're likely to see a continuation of low intensity, protracted
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  Speaker 7: fighting for the foreseeable future.
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  Speaker 8: Neither side wants to back down, neither side wants to.
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  Speaker 7: Yield, and neither side is really even speaking the same
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  Speaker 7: language when it comes to negotiation.
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  Speaker 2: So we're going to start the sixty day countdown not
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  Speaker 2: for a cease fire but for war powers. Or is
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  Speaker 2: the White House out of the business of keeping that clock.
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  Speaker 7: I think the White House is out of that business.
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  Speaker 7: I'm not sure they were ever in that business. They
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  Speaker 7: don't want to give Congress the vote on it. I
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  Speaker 7: think the other thing is, yes, we are continuing this conflict,
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  Speaker 7: but that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to return to
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  Speaker 7: the early days of the war, that high intensity of
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  Speaker 7: strikes and fighting O Both sides want to avoid that interesting.
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  Speaker 2: He had an interview yesterday was on the Hugh Hewitt Show.
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  Speaker 2: The President that is, so the US will hit Aron
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  Speaker 2: very hard in the coming days, calling the Pickaxe Mountain
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  Speaker 2: nuclear site a possible target. He said, quote for a nice, big,
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  Speaker 2: fat shot. Unquote was that part of the strikes that
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  Speaker 2: we did against the nuclear infrastructure.
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  Speaker 7: We've heard him repeatedly reference this idea of a job
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  Speaker 7: to a certain extent. He says, unfinished that we want
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  Speaker 7: to go back and restrike those facilities. But then at
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  Speaker 7: the same time the material is buried and they can't
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  Speaker 7: access it, so we don't need to worry about it.
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  Speaker 8: We'll just monitor it.
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  Speaker 7: He's kind of flip flopped on this point, but he
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  Speaker 7: has referenced the idea of going back and striking those
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  Speaker 7: sites in addition to threats against more critical energy infrastructure
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  Speaker 7: and bridges and that sort of thing. So I think
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  Speaker 7: that those are some of the things that they are
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  Speaker 7: toying with in terms of escalation possibilities, but those come
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  Speaker 7: with extremely high risks of bringing the conflict to a
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  Speaker 7: point where we have a true.
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  Speaker 8: Breakdown and negotiations and talks.
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  Speaker 7: He's been saying talks could continue, they could restart, even though.
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  Speaker 8: The MoU is dead.
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  Speaker 7: If the US were to engage in those kinds of strikes,
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  Speaker 7: I think we would see more of a reset back
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  Speaker 7: to where we were earlier.
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  Speaker 2: We were just quickly before you leave us, what's the
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  Speaker 2: biggest threat right now?
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  Speaker 3: In the straight missiles, drones, both all of.
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  Speaker 8: The above, plus fast attack craft.
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  Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
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  Speaker 2: more coming up after this.
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  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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• 13:19
  Speaker 2: We connect the dots between policy here in Washington, a
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  Speaker 2: lot of it to connect to the markets, whether it's
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  Speaker 2: the testimony from FED Chair Warsh following the CPI report
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  Speaker 2: that came out this morning here in Washington, or the
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  Speaker 2: president's policies in the Middle East, making clear that the
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  Speaker 2: twenty percent reimbursement fee he called for yesterday in the
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  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz as part of a blockade against Iran
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  Speaker 2: but no one else, will in fact be replaced by
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  Speaker 2: deal making, by foreign direct investment in the US from
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  Speaker 2: our partners who we would presumably be protecting and helping
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: to escort through the Strait. We may learn more about
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  Speaker 2: this in the President's primetime address on Thursday evening. He
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  Speaker 2: announced this yesterday nine pm Eastern Time. And as you know,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: this is a rare venue for this president, a primetime
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  Speaker 2: address recalling the old fireside chats, or even a president
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: behind the resolute desk, which is something that this commander
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: in chief has chosen not to do. When he addresses
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: the nation solo in prime time, it will be a
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: pote Peree when asked about the topic and why the
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: President needs to speak to the nation on Thursday evening,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: presidential advisor speaking with Axios, saying that he will likely
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: speak about the war in Iran, but he may speak
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: to a number of other issues, including the Save America
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Act end quote, may present his intelligence officials findings about
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: Unquote.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Of course, the President has never admitted he lost that
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: election and will presumably be coming up with some news
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: on Thursday evening. This speech to the nation, while rare
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: for this president, may be followed by many more officials
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: at the White House, also telling Axios they want to
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: get into a rhythm of doing this a powerful tool,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: the prime time address. He wants to do more of them.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: The President speaking earlier today from the Oval Office as
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: he spent time with the Prime Minister of Iraq, speaking
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: to the situation in Iran and specifically the Straight of
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: Hormuz and why he decided to change his tune on
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: tolls or as he puts it, reimbursement fees for the straight.
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  Speaker 3: Here's the President.
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  Speaker 9: Listen.
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  Speaker 10: You have Sodi Arabia, eee Qajar, Bahre and Kuwait primarily,
• 15:46
  Speaker 10: and then others. I spoke to all of them and
• 15:49
  Speaker 10: they would love to invest more money in the United
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  Speaker 10: States at record amounts, and that would be very acceptable.
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  Speaker 2: In this way, there's no fear, no fee. As he says,
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  Speaker 2: we play it to our panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Schanzano are with us. Rick is our
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  Speaker 2: Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital, and Genie is
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: School's Ash Center.
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  Speaker 3: What are we thinking about?
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  Speaker 2: This Guy's been less than twenty four hours and the
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  Speaker 2: story has changed dramatically, Rick, dos fd I replace the
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  Speaker 2: toll in the Strait And how do we quantify that
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  Speaker 2: in the end?
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  Speaker 11: Yeah, and I'm not even sure what we're trying to
• 16:30
  Speaker 11: replace the twenty percent tariff on You know, these ships
• 16:35
  Speaker 11: would have raised an enormous amount of money, ostensibly to
• 16:38
  Speaker 11: pay for operations in the golf to keep the straight open.
• 16:45
  Speaker 11: Foreign direct investment would offset that, how And in these
• 16:50
  Speaker 11: countries like UAE and Cutter and Saudi Arabia, they've already
• 16:55
  Speaker 11: committed almost four trillion dollars to investment in the United States.
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  Speaker 11: ABE is previous announced deals in this term of office
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  Speaker 11: by President Trump. So are they prepared to go for
• 17:07
  Speaker 11: five trillion? It's just is Bob Barker now, you know,
• 17:12
  Speaker 11: sort of channeling, uh, Donald Trump, how much can we
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  Speaker 11: get for this? So I don't know, it's it's kind
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  Speaker 11: of a SPECIs argument. So much going on right now
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  Speaker 11: that it doesn't seem very consistent. You know, we're sort
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  Speaker 11: of right back to where we started, deja vous all
• 17:30
  Speaker 11: over again, uh in the Persian Gulf. And I do
• 17:33
  Speaker 11: fear that without a plan, we could be having the
• 17:35
  Speaker 11: same conversation for months.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Well, it is interesting, Yes, it's back to the future.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Uh in the strait of horror. U's genie the president is,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: you might remember, used to qualify Mexico paying for the
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: border wall after saying that in the campaign, mex Who's
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: going to pay for it? The crowd would would scream Mexico.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: And while Mexico did not write a check, he said
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: it still was reimburse to the United States through trade deals.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Is that essentially what we're talking about here? For the
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: straight of horm moves.
• 18:11
  Speaker 9: The logic here just makes absolutely no sense.
• 18:15
  Speaker 12: Are we to believe now that the President embarked on
• 18:18
  Speaker 12: a war that is costing US lives and economy of
• 18:22
  Speaker 12: billion dollars a day, and what we're going to get
• 18:25
  Speaker 12: out of it is a twenty percent levy that even
• 18:28
  Speaker 12: his own Secretary of State said the other day is
• 18:31
  Speaker 12: a violation of international law. And then once he puts
• 18:34
  Speaker 12: that out as a trial balloon yesterday, and it comes
• 18:37
  Speaker 12: back from senators like Roger Wicker and others. But most importantly,
• 18:41
  Speaker 12: the market doesn't respond well. He says, oh, wait forget that.
• 18:45
  Speaker 12: Now we're going to go with foreign direct investment. Why
• 18:48
  Speaker 12: were we going into a run to begin with? We
• 18:51
  Speaker 12: were supposed to go in, according to the President the
• 18:54
  Speaker 12: other day, to deal with the problem of nuclear weapons
• 18:58
  Speaker 12: and their nuclear program.
• 18:59
  Speaker 9: That has not happened.
• 19:01
  Speaker 12: And the President is in a quagmire of his own making.
• 19:05
  Speaker 12: It's clear he has no way to get out of it,
• 19:08
  Speaker 12: and so he is spinning as hard as he can.
• 19:11
  Speaker 12: The American taxpayers are going to pay, and have been
• 19:14
  Speaker 12: paying for the price of this war, just as we
• 19:17
  Speaker 12: paid for any ball built on the Mexican border. But
• 19:20
  Speaker 12: more importantly, we have an economy that's struggling. And Joe,
• 19:24
  Speaker 12: did I just hear you correctly, he is going to
• 19:26
  Speaker 12: use a prime time address on Thursday to talk about
• 19:30
  Speaker 12: the twenty twenty election with CPI numbers like this, with
• 19:35
  Speaker 12: costs going up, with an active war, and he's going
• 19:38
  Speaker 12: to talk about the twenty twenty election. I hope commerheads
• 19:42
  Speaker 12: prevail at the White House. That would be a disaster politically.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about that, Rick the president Scott the time.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: We'll see how he decides to use it on Thursday evening.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: It is curious that you call for a primetime address
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: without a very deliberate message to send the White House.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: In this reporting, Maxio still seems to be crystallizing exactly
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: what the message will be. But if it is in
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: fact a potpourri that includes trying to blow holes in
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenty election, what does that do for not
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: the president as much as the Republican Party.
• 20:14
  Speaker 11: Well, at first, say Joe that this is a president
• 20:17
  Speaker 11: that makes massive geopolitical announcements sitting behind the Resolute desk
• 20:24
  Speaker 11: during the day while meetings are going on, and so
• 20:28
  Speaker 11: he doesn't really stick to the script of a traditional
• 20:32
  Speaker 11: presidential address that we're used to. So yeah, sure, I'm
• 20:37
  Speaker 11: not surprised he would want to spend more time at
• 20:41
  Speaker 11: prime time talking to the American public and the rest
• 20:43
  Speaker 11: of the world just seems to fit his mo That
• 20:47
  Speaker 11: being said, I do share Genie's concerns that going back
• 20:53
  Speaker 11: and talking about the twenty twenty election, reporting on what
• 20:57
  Speaker 11: your intelligence direct has found on fraud related to it,
• 21:04
  Speaker 11: something that no one else in his organization for almost
• 21:08
  Speaker 11: ten years have been able to uncover, is a little
• 21:12
  Speaker 11: specious and would really distract the Republicans who are running
• 21:16
  Speaker 11: for reelection this year from their really appointed mission, which
• 21:20
  Speaker 11: is to talk about affordability, to talk about cost living.
• 21:23
  Speaker 11: And he does all this right after he gets a
• 21:26
  Speaker 11: decent CPI mark, which would be actually what you should be.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: Talking about to the American public, that.
• 21:32
  Speaker 11: We're sort of making a little bit of a crack
• 21:35
  Speaker 11: in inflation, which is their number one issue.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a pretty great headline for him today. The
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: first decline in CPI in a long time, Genie, and
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: he says we're going to bring prices much lower. Yet
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: he was also asked about the sanctions bill that may
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: carry the name of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, and
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I'd love to hear from both of you on this.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: He was asked if he will sign a Russia sanctions
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: bill if it passes Congress, and it looks like it will.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: This has had the votes long time ago. He said,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: Lindsay wanted it very badly. Jeannie, now not a yes
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: or no. Lindsay wanted it very badly. And I think
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: they're going to add Aron to it and hesb law too.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Does that complicate things? If that is the case, would
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: it still pass?
• 22:26
  Speaker 9: It may still pass.
• 22:27
  Speaker 12: You know, the way that Lindsey Graham and the way
• 22:30
  Speaker 12: that the Senator from Connecticut, Blumenthal, had constructed it, it
• 22:33
  Speaker 12: was widely popular and would have passed. Now if they
• 22:37
  Speaker 12: go back and they tried to reconfigure it, that can
• 22:40
  Speaker 12: always create complications, particularly in a Senate with such a
• 22:44
  Speaker 12: narrow Republican majority. But I think what we're hearing from
• 22:48
  Speaker 12: the President is what we've heard repeatedly.
• 22:50
  Speaker 9: The White House did not want to support this.
• 22:53
  Speaker 12: Initially, they kept saying it would throw a monkey wrench
• 22:57
  Speaker 12: into negotiations with Russia, which don't really seemed to be ongoing.
• 23:01
  Speaker 9: Now they sort of.
• 23:02
  Speaker 12: Have been wavering, but the President has been noticeably noncommittal.
• 23:07
  Speaker 12: If he was really intent on this when he went
• 23:10
  Speaker 12: on meet the Press on Sunday, just after Lindsey Grant passed.
• 23:14
  Speaker 9: Why wasn't this the first thing he talked about?
• 23:17
  Speaker 12: Instead he talked again about the Save America Act, And
• 23:21
  Speaker 12: that tells you, I think all you need to know
• 23:23
  Speaker 12: about where the President's had is on this. As usual,
• 23:27
  Speaker 12: his focus is on himself and what he deems to
• 23:30
  Speaker 12: be most important, and that is not the sanctions bill.
• 23:33
  Speaker 9: So I don't know that they're going to block it.
• 23:35
  Speaker 12: I don't know that they're going to not push for it,
• 23:37
  Speaker 12: but I don't think the President is going to spend
• 23:39
  Speaker 12: much energy there. And if he was, why not talk
• 23:43
  Speaker 12: about that on Thursday night in your primetime address. Instead
• 23:47
  Speaker 12: he's going to talk about twenty twenty and election stealing
• 23:50
  Speaker 12: and of course get right back to the Save America
• 23:52
  Speaker 12: Voting Act.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: Well, And I don't know.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Look, that's what Axios is reporting here, whether we get
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: to twenty twenty or not. Genie, you would think that
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: this would be a major selling point. Rick, what do
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: you think about this is that does this imply that
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: the president doesn't want to have a piece of legislation
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: that hits Vladimir putin between the eyes at you add Iran,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: you ad Hasbela spread it out a little bit.
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it may be just a reaction to.
• 24:15
  Speaker 11: Iran and Hezbollah in the current sort of sticky wicket
• 24:20
  Speaker 11: that they're all involved in together. So I wouldn't read
• 24:23
  Speaker 11: too much into it. I mean, I think that's a
• 24:25
  Speaker 11: lesson we got to learn with this president. Don't over
• 24:28
  Speaker 11: think because he's certainly not doing that. And yet there's
• 24:33
  Speaker 11: a lot of support for the sanctions belt. I hope
• 24:35
  Speaker 11: they passed it with Lindsay's name on it.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: more coming up after this.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 24:48
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• 24:52
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• 24:55
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• 24:58
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• 25:04
  Speaker 2: We turn our attention back to geopolitics and our conversation
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: with the Congressman, knowing that oil prices have pulled back
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: a bit from their highs of the session. The President's
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: different position on this idea of a twenty percent reimbursement
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: fee for the straight of horror moves. He says, instead,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: we'll seek foreign direct investment from Middle Eastern allies. And
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: oil prices have pulled back, they're still moving higher. Brent
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: crude right now is up over one and a half
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: percent to almost eighty five dollars a barrel WTI, it's
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: up bellow more than one percent to seventy nine dollars
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: a barrel to the penny Troy Downing. The Republican Congressman
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: from Montana joins us now. Of course, an Air Force
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: veteran and someone who we've talked to quite a bit
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: since the start of this war about the way forward here.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: He serves on House financial Services as well. And it's
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: good to have you back, Congressman. On Bloomberg TV and Radio,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: the President has alerted Congress has let you and your
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: colleagues know that we're back to war with Iran, and
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I'm wondering, particularly as an Air Force veteran, what you
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: think is the best course of action here if we
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: should continue to pursue talks or if it's back to
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: all out war.
• 26:11
  Speaker 13: Well, you know, we've seen this going on for forty
• 26:14
  Speaker 13: seven years. We're dealing with a country that doesn't negotiate
• 26:18
  Speaker 13: in good faith. But I'm going to say that we
• 26:20
  Speaker 13: need to stick with our original goals in this conflict.
• 26:24
  Speaker 13: We need to make sure that we never ever see
• 26:27
  Speaker 13: a nuclear capable Iran. And the second thing is is
• 26:31
  Speaker 13: we need to make sure that we see commerce, normal
• 26:35
  Speaker 13: commerce passing through the straight of horror moves without any
• 26:37
  Speaker 13: you know, toll booths or toll gates or any kind
• 26:40
  Speaker 13: of you know, interference there. And I think that what
• 26:43
  Speaker 13: the President is doing right now, and you know, he's
• 26:46
  Speaker 13: obviously renewed the blockade on Iranian ports there and a
• 26:51
  Speaker 13: lot of times the way you get you know, people
• 26:53
  Speaker 13: to comply is through their pocketbook. And that's back onto
• 26:56
  Speaker 13: that goal. But the other thing is is that you know,
• 26:59
  Speaker 13: if if they're going to continue to not act in
• 27:02
  Speaker 13: good faith, we need to do what we need to
• 27:05
  Speaker 13: do to make sure that we never have this world,
• 27:09
  Speaker 13: you know, not just the United States and our allies,
• 27:11
  Speaker 13: but this planet being subject to a nuclear an. I
• 27:14
  Speaker 13: think it's important that.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: We see this through.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts on the President's approach to what
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: he referred to as a reimbursement fee yesterday.
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: Some would call it a toll for the straight.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: He says he heard from a lot of our allies
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: in the region, Congressmen, and they would prefer to invest
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: in the United States, knowing that they have already invested
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: hundreds of billions of dollars trillions combined. How would this
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: work exactly, and how would we quantify the investment to
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: know that it was paying for the services that the
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: President says will be providing.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 27:46
  Speaker 13: Well, first of all, I think that the President has
• 27:48
  Speaker 13: pulled back on that last I heard on that direct rembursement,
• 27:52
  Speaker 13: and I think that that's correct in terms of investment.
• 27:56
  Speaker 13: I think that's something that we should always be encouraging.
• 27:58
  Speaker 13: I think that's good for our country. I think that's
• 28:01
  Speaker 13: a good direction to monitor that. It's like a lot
• 28:04
  Speaker 13: of things, you know, the words matter, and it really
• 28:07
  Speaker 13: depends on how we put this this whole deal together
• 28:10
  Speaker 13: to make sure that we do have and the operative
• 28:12
  Speaker 13: word is investment. We have investment so that there's an
• 28:15
  Speaker 13: expected return and there's benefit for us as well for
• 28:19
  Speaker 13: everything that we're doing to make sure that a bad
• 28:21
  Speaker 13: actor isn't completely going in contradiction to international maritime law
• 28:27
  Speaker 13: and trying to shut off you know, international waterways where
• 28:30
  Speaker 13: we've got you know, obviously, you know, oil is the
• 28:32
  Speaker 13: big topic, but we've got a lot of things passing
• 28:34
  Speaker 13: through that straight that. You know, the United States, our
• 28:37
  Speaker 13: allies and this. You know, a lot of countries around
• 28:39
  Speaker 13: the world depend on I mentioned you served in the
• 28:43
  Speaker 13: Air Force.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Congressmen, you're in Afghanistan doing search and rescue operations. So
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: your view is unique for many in Washington, d C.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: And I'm wondering if you think the administration underestimated the
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: ability of Iran to use asymmetric warfare to make this
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: a lot more difficult than we had estimated.
• 29:02
  Speaker 13: Well, a lot of times when you go to war,
• 29:04
  Speaker 13: you you know, do the best you can to understand
• 29:06
  Speaker 13: the enemy. And I believe that the President, I believe
• 29:11
  Speaker 13: that Secretary heg Seth, Secretary Rubio, you know, understand this adversary.
• 29:17
  Speaker 13: And a big part of this that you kind of
• 29:19
  Speaker 13: alluded to early on, is whether we should be talking
• 29:22
  Speaker 13: or doing. We've got forty seven years of bad faith talking.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: Now we're doing.
• 29:28
  Speaker 13: Yes, you've got to be ready for what may or
• 29:29
  Speaker 13: may not happen. And for a lot of folks, you know,
• 29:33
  Speaker 13: me included, it hasn't happened as quickly as we like
• 29:36
  Speaker 13: it to be, but we still need to stick to
• 29:38
  Speaker 13: our guns, in my opinion, and make sure that this
• 29:41
  Speaker 13: job is done so that this country will no longer
• 29:44
  Speaker 13: be a threat to you know, global civilization.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we know.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: Your Financial Services Committee met with the chair earlier today.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: We carried that hearing in its entirety, Congressman, the first
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: of two days for share warsh and of course, affordability
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: is a massive issue here in Washington for anyone running
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: for reelection for this administration. It's something that everyone has
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: in common here, and that, of course was the spirit
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: of that conversation with the Fed Share. I bring it
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: up because I want to ask you about this housing
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: bill that just recently became law without the President's signature,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: something that we talked about quite a bit. You wrote
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: a piece of that bill, the Whole Home Repairs Act
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, which awards HUD grants to homeowners
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: of lesser means to make repairs to upgrade their homes.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: You heard what the President said that this bill was
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: a big yawn. But is this not a direct example
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: of what might actually help people? When would they be
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: able to make this an opportunity for themselves.
• 30:42
  Speaker 13: Yeah, Well, first of all, I think sometimes the President
• 30:46
  Speaker 13: will say things that you know are not exactly I
• 30:50
  Speaker 13: think he said that in the moment, But I think
• 30:52
  Speaker 13: that the president does see a lot of the good
• 30:54
  Speaker 13: things that we have in this bill, and obviously the
• 30:57
  Speaker 13: administration was part of.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: Some of this crafting of it.
• 31:00
  Speaker 13: So one of the big issues, just to pull back
• 31:02
  Speaker 13: a little bit, that I run into across my district
• 31:05
  Speaker 13: is recruiting and retaining folks for rural hospitals and schools.
• 31:11
  Speaker 13: One of the biggest issues we have is finding places
• 31:15
  Speaker 13: for people to live. We just have a dearth of
• 31:18
  Speaker 13: availability of affordable housing, and so any place that you
• 31:22
  Speaker 13: do corrections in the whole strata from high end to
• 31:26
  Speaker 13: entry level, creates positive pressure and creating availability for somebody
• 31:31
  Speaker 13: else up or down that strata. So what this bill
• 31:34
  Speaker 13: does is there's some homes that have fallen into a
• 31:36
  Speaker 13: state of disrepair where they don't qualify for a lot
• 31:39
  Speaker 13: of HUD programs. So this helps that lower strata of
• 31:43
  Speaker 13: this housing so that it can qualify for these programs
• 31:46
  Speaker 13: so that we can get these repaired.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: It's not any new funding.
• 31:49
  Speaker 13: This is just reallocated of some funds that were being underutilized.
• 31:53
  Speaker 13: So there's no new money coming into this, just want
• 31:55
  Speaker 13: to make that clear. But what that does is you
• 31:57
  Speaker 13: start to fix that. It creates opportunity for that level
• 32:01
  Speaker 13: and people move up and down the strata. That actually
• 32:03
  Speaker 13: helps solve this problem for everybody. I think that this
• 32:08
  Speaker 13: was a good positive movement for a huge need in
• 32:11
  Speaker 13: my district.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, with regard to affordability and prices. We've got the
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: CPI today, of course, and the headline is a bell ringer.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Consumer prices down in June for the first time in
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: six years. That's something that you can crow about. The
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: CPI down four tenths from May, biggest decline in gasoline
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: we've seen since twenty twenty two. The headline index, though,
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: still shows very stubborn inflation three and a half percent
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: from a year earlier.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: And the Chair was very careful with his remarks about this. Congressman.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: Here's what he said.
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: What's one data point. The reason I create a task
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: force on data is I don't want to overread or
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: cherry pick data. There might be some that look at
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: this morning's data and say, oh, mission accomplished, Everything is swell.
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: That is not my view.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I think most politicians have learned not to say mission
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: accomplished pretty much anytime.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Congressman, I'm just.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: Wondering how you view this, and if you're worried that
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: this resumption of kinetic activity and Iran pushing oil prices
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: today is going to bring in those gas prices back up.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: Well, here's the thing.
• 33:12
  Speaker 13: As we see in certain sectors of the economy, some
• 33:16
  Speaker 13: things are particularly volatile just based on headlines, and I
• 33:20
  Speaker 13: think we'll continue to see that, especially on the energy side,
• 33:22
  Speaker 13: especially you know, prices at the pump. But you know,
• 33:25
  Speaker 13: long term, I'm feeling pretty good about the direction we're going. No,
• 33:28
  Speaker 13: we're not going to say mission accomplished. But you know,
• 33:31
  Speaker 13: one of the things that I think about often in
• 33:34
  Speaker 13: federal monetary policy is, you know, we talk about the
• 33:38
  Speaker 13: dual mandate of employment versus price stability.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: And I believe that what we're going to see.
• 33:45
  Speaker 13: From WARSH is really focusing on that price stability, which
• 33:48
  Speaker 13: I think has the most meaningful long term impacts. And
• 33:51
  Speaker 13: I do believe we're going in the right direction, but
• 33:54
  Speaker 13: I don't believe that we should be, you know, singing
• 33:57
  Speaker 13: praises on something that that may be transitory in nature.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Well, I appreciate that answer. With that dual mandated mind.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Do you think it's time to cut or is it
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: too early?
• 34:08
  Speaker 13: You know, I I I think it might be a
• 34:11
  Speaker 13: little too early right now. But I'm gonna leave that
• 34:15
  Speaker 13: to the folks and the FED to make that decision.
• 34:18
  Speaker 13: I think that we have leadership there that is going
• 34:21
  Speaker 13: to make the right decision to make sure we stabilize
• 34:23
  Speaker 13: and don't just create this ringing effect of a pendulum,
• 34:27
  Speaker 13: you know, swinging drastically that is not in anybody's interest.
• 34:30
  Speaker 13: So I'm feeling pretty good about, you know, where we're
• 34:32
  Speaker 13: going to go with the FED moving forward and really
• 34:35
  Speaker 13: focusing on that price stability part.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
• 34:45
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• 34:48
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• 34:51
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• 34:54
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