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Retreat from Iran means opening the door to World War · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:14
  Welcome to another edition of Triple Loud Reports on America Out Loud.
• 0:19
  We're here with my good friend Jeff Nyquist talking about Iran.
• 0:23
  You may have noticed that Iran's been in the news for the last 27 days.
• 0:28
  And Jeff has uh Jeff's a big student of international affairs of history.
• 0:33
  He's got a grasp of military strategy and operation military operations.
• 0:39
  It's it's pretty impressive.
• 0:41
  And he's got some a lot of ideas on this war.
• 0:45
  So Jeff, can you just introduce yourself while I quickly get a drink of water and uh then we'll then I'll ask you a couple of questions.
• 0:54
  Yeah.
• 0:55
  Well, I'm Jeff Nyquist.
• 0:56
  I I wrote for Newsmax and World Net Daily.
• 0:59
  I wrote the origins of the Fourth World War.
• 1:01
  And uh I was trained as a political scientist, but my original interest was military uh history and um military strategy.
• 1:10
  So uh I it's been a lifelong interest of mine, and of course, I'm I'm always curious about the great powers and um how they prepare for war, and of course, I've never been one to believe that war is uh is done, that we now live in a as Francis Fukiyama said, um uh it's the end of history.
• 1:32
  I I don't think so.
• 1:34
  Uh history ends when there's no more human beings to fight with each other.
• 1:38
  As long as we're here on the planet, there's going to be wars.
• 1:41
  And that's just the way it is.
• 1:43
  And the major powers are always struggling over priority and over control of the of land resources, uh even just for thumping their chest, you know, to prove that they're stronger to back down the other side.
• 1:57
  So this has always been part of of human history.
• 2:00
  It's um it it may be unpleasant and people may want to believe in peace, but um war is really what is fills up history.
• 2:10
  Uh the the Romans had the Temple of Janice and the doors, uh the doors would be open when there was war and they would be closed when there wasn't, and the Temple of Janice, the doors were almost always open because wars are almost always happening.
• 2:26
  So um it's it's it's kind of where we are.
• 2:30
  And of course, if you say there's not going to be a war between Russia and America or Russia and China or Russia and Iran, you're probably wrong.
• 2:38
  There's going to be a war between these powers.
• 2:41
  And then there's blocks of countries that are with each other against other blocks of countries.
• 2:48
  This is another aspect.
• 2:49
  So this is what we're looking at.
• 2:50
  The war in Iran and the war in Ukraine are both connected because similar sets of actors are on each side and opposed in their interests and their form of government, their ideology.
• 3:03
  There's there's deep connections here in all these areas.
• 3:06
  Although many people can't um see it because you know, Russia has pretended to be, you know, Putin's pretended to be a Christian, pretended to be uh a nationalist.
• 3:17
  Uh Russia really is very socialist, and it's back to the USSR.
• 3:21
  We can see they're heading in the direction of North Korea, and of course, Iran is a totalitarian state as well.
• 3:30
  So this is kind of the division of the world between the free countries and uh dictatorships.
• 3:36
  Well, this this really is the evil axis of Ronald Reagan, isn't it?
• 3:41
  You know, it never died.
• 3:43
  You know, the the Soviet Union went into retreat.
• 3:46
  It's now Russia, but it has a very similar foreign policy to to the old Soviet Union has the same allies.
• 3:53
  It's fighting a war in Europe.
• 3:55
  It's it's uh at least encouraging a war in um, you know, with uh uh in Israel with Hamas against against Israel, and it's uh and its key ally, Iran, is fighting a major war in the Middle East right now.
• 4:11
  But and it all comes back to Russia, doesn't it?
• 4:13
  You know, every every load, every road seems to lead back to Moscow in this enterprise.
• 4:20
  Yeah, people don't uh understand power, and there's a difference between money power, financial power, industrial power, military power.
• 4:30
  There's relationships between these things, but America has become gone from being the world's number one industrial power and financial power and technological power to being the number one technological and in in uh financial power.
• 4:47
  We've lost that industry thing.
• 4:49
  And China has picked up the industrial power and has the largest military in the world.
• 4:55
  And Russia has the most advanced missiles in the world.
• 5:00
  The we don't have hypersonic missiles like Russia has.
• 5:11
  Something I learned today.
• 5:12
  We because the the Hezbollah was destroying Israeli tanks with drones now in Lebanon.
• 5:20
  So this is a key point.
• 5:21
  I heard I heard you talking the other day, Jeff.
• 5:23
  You're saying that to liberate Iran, there is gonna have to be boots on the ground.
• 5:30
  Now the problem is if Iran is as good with drones as the Ukrainians now are, and probably the Russians are, if they have developed that technology, that could be a disaster for America, could it not?
• 5:44
  It's high casualties.
• 5:45
  I mean, I I don't think anybody's as good as the Ukrainians, but if they're as good as the Russians, and the Russians do use drones, uh, and and they've developed some sophistication on their own, because I think in a way the Iranians as a culture and as a people are possibly more sophisticated than the Russians or the Chinese.
• 6:03
  They may be more capable in some respects.
• 6:05
  Uh they're smaller, they're only 93 million people, but still uh Nazi Germany was only about 80 million.
• 6:12
  So it's there's still twice what Ukraine has, isn't it?
• 6:16
  Yeah, it's more than twice Ukraine's population.
• 6:19
  So the the possibilities here are very uh we have to be careful uh because you know the Russians are losing uh around a thousand men a day, eight and eight hundred of those are from drones.
• 6:33
  Imagine drones killing 800 of your servicemen a day.
• 6:37
  How long could the United States put up with that level of loss?
• 6:42
  Yeah, it's hard to imagine, it's hard to imagine the political will to do it in election year, isn't it?
• 6:48
  Very hard to there's no way Americans don't have that political will.
• 6:53
  Uh I I don't think.
• 6:55
  Um the Russians, it's part of their culture historically.
• 6:59
  I mean, they lost, depending on which historian, somewhere between 25 and 35 million men they lost in World War II.
• 7:08
  And they were, in fact, running out of men, even though the Soviet Union had the one of the largest populations in the world, they were using women as snipers, tank drivers, and night bomber pilots.
• 7:18
  So the so uh uh difficult was it for them to get their hold on men after they were had the heavy losses, but they they were able the Germans wrote about the Russians, they couldn't believe the Russians' ability to continue to attack uh despite being wiped out uh by the thousands in their attacks.
• 7:37
  They would just keep coming.
• 7:39
  The Germans literally would run out of ammunition and have to retreat because they just they didn't have the means to kill.
• 7:46
  They would have to run.
• 7:48
  And finally, when the Battle of Berlin, their flanks caved in because they didn't have the ammunition to stop the numbers that were coming at them.
• 7:55
  And and of course, the Russians are using these same tactics as as horrible as they are against Ukraine.
• 8:02
  Mass human wave assaults, clearing minefields with their feet, uh absorbing drone hits.
• 8:08
  So this this 60-year-old man who was sent to the front without training is just there to take a drone.
• 8:15
  You know, a drone costs between 2500 and 5,000.
• 8:19
  And how much does the man cost?
• 8:21
  Well, you won't have to pay his pension.
• 8:24
  Right?
• 8:25
  And there's a criminal they recruit to take a drone hit.
• 8:28
  Well, we're paying for him to be in prison.
• 8:31
  Let's just see if he if he takes the drone hit.
• 8:34
  We we we kind of get rid of parts of our population, the Russians would say, in order to absorb these drones.
• 8:42
  Meanwhile, the real military training is going on in Russia to their more able people, the citizens they want to keep.
• 8:51
  I think that's what's going on in Russia.
• 8:54
  And I think that's the one.
• 8:56
  Yeah, well, so you've said this before that that we're not really seeing the cream of the Russian military fighting in Ukraine, are we?
• 9:03
  We're we're we know there are large numbers of Russian troops in Belarus.
• 9:07
  They've been there since uh, you know, for some time, some of them, and we have a bit of a false um and I a bit of a false idea of the power of the Russian military.
• 9:19
  We've seen it um degraded and slaughtered the troops slaughtered in Ukraine, but I don't really think that's the full strength of the Russian military, do you?
• 9:29
  I'm skeptical that it is because we know there's better parts of it.
• 9:34
  Look, there's there's like a couple divisions of troops on that front that seem to be well led and doing what we understand from the operational art of war, but most of the other brigades and units that are on the front in in on the Russian side are made up of these conscripts and people that are living in miserable conditions, and people that are just being used up.
• 10:00
  And it's almost like they decided to turn the war into a giant war game to test new methods and new techniques of waging war.
• 10:12
  You'll notice that they kept their armada tanks out of the war.
• 10:16
  And what one of the first things, they threw in all the old cold war tanks and used them up.
• 10:21
  Well, these were, you know, T-62s, T-72s, T 80s.
• 10:26
  These they didn't mind losing these tanks.
• 10:29
  Because they were a lot of them are rust buckets anyway, and uh they discovered how weak they were.
• 10:36
  And um, and so what what did they lost uh in the first uh three, four years of the war, they lost 10,000 tanks, you know, something like uh 40 something thousand trucks.
• 10:49
  I mean, the the and a lot of them taken out by drones.
• 10:52
  Meanwhile, the Russians were using fiber optics cable to launch drones that couldn't be jammed.
• 10:58
  They were doing their own experiments with drone warfare while the Ukrainians were experimenting on them, and they were learning this new method of warfare.
• 11:05
  And the Chinese have teams in Ukraine, and there's Chinese soldiers fighting in Russian uniform there, and they're also learning, and the North Koreans are there learning.
• 11:15
  Uh but uh how many of the NATO people are learning right now for the first time in the last few months, the Ukrainian teams have gone and conducted exercises with NATO to uh test the ability of Ukrainian teams to attack NATO with drones.
• 11:32
  And NATO has had his claw cleaned in these exercises, both naval and land.
• 11:37
  They found that the Ukrainian drones beat NATO every time.
• 11:41
  So if it was NATO against Ukraine, uh, Ukraine would beat NATO.
• 11:46
  Now the Russians who are behind the Ukrainians still are have been in this game for four years plus, and they've developed drone warfare.
• 11:54
  We don't know how much, and we don't know if they're sandbagging.
• 11:58
  How much are the Russians holding back because they don't want to show their capability to the West?
• 12:03
  And this is the other question.
• 12:04
  Why is Russia building nine?
• 12:07
  Now the Dutch released the news.
• 12:09
  Um Johnny Anderson and and and Lee Wheelbarker, they found uh what was it, 78 new encampments on the NATO border, Russian encampments.
• 12:19
  And the Dutch announced the other day that there's actually 94 Russian new encampments.
• 12:24
  That means they're mobilizing, they're going to be sending troops.
• 12:28
  What's that new ones?
• 12:31
  Yeah.
• 12:32
  Brand new encampments.
• 12:35
  So the Russians are mobilizing.
• 12:36
  Is this in many in Belarus or uh they're along the Finnish border in the Baltic states borders?
• 12:44
  And of course, the there's been a another mobilization under Lukashenko, who's in North Korea now, meeting with uh little nuclear rocket uh Pills dairy boy doughboy over there.
• 12:56
  Uh he's he's there, but he's done a mobilization again.
• 13:00
  The there's a troop buildup by the Belarusian military, and they're busy training their men intensively to make sure that they're in better shape than the troops that they send in without training to die in Ukraine.
• 13:13
  That's suspicious in itself and uh in and troubling.
• 13:18
  And of course, um the the real target of Russia, Russia really wants to take down the U.S.
• 13:27
  and force NATO to capitulate, um strategically.
• 13:33
  So how does your mobilization, your art of war get you there?
• 13:37
  Uh I think Iran, now you started asking me about that.
• 13:41
  I think that is a key uh piece in the puzzle of their strategy.
• 13:48
  So okay.
• 13:49
  So we're all thinking, okay, President Trump's sick of Iranian ultimatums and and whatever, and decided to take them out.
• 13:58
  And you know, a lot of people thought thought the Iranian regime would catch, it would collapse in a week.
• 14:05
  And a bit like, you know, Putin allegedly thought that Ukraine would collapse in a week, but that that they're not they're not gonna, they're not haven't collapsed, and we and we thought maybe there'd be an uprising.
• 14:16
  Have there been three uprisings so far, and none of them have succeeded.
• 14:20
  And we thought I think people thought of Trump goes in this time and bombs the hick out of their military, the people will take the signal and rise up.
• 14:28
  So that hasn't happened.
• 14:30
  So how does this how is this part of Russian strategy, do you think?
• 14:38
  Um, well, I think the Russians, if you look at Iran and you look at the massive underground tunnel systems, tunneled out mountains, rocket launchers, bunkers with drones and rocket launchers in them.
• 14:50
  Uh if you look at this, and then the the the fast boats along the coast with the mines and the uh underwater drones.
• 14:58
  If you look at this development, which has been going on for uh, you know, probably more than 30 years.
• 15:05
  I mean, they were having putting silkworm missiles in there from China over 30 years ago.
• 15:10
  Um, those are surface-to-surface missiles uh uh of that time that Iran had.
• 15:17
  Um I think this is they've been working on this strategy a long time.
• 15:22
  And here's what their strategy always has been.
• 15:25
  It isn't like Iran's gonna invade Israel or Saudi Arabia or the Middle or any of the other Middle East countries.
• 15:32
  Iran is a huge country in its own right, right?
• 15:35
  It's much bigger than Iraq.
• 15:37
  It has, you know, much more popular, many times the population of Iraq.
• 15:42
  And uh, but Russia and China have built this into a fortress.
• 15:46
  Iran sits directly over the most sensitive waterway in the world, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
• 15:54
  And so um you've got oil tankers that go through there that pick up the oil for Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Europe largely, and a lot of third world countries go through there every day.
• 16:08
  And then those countries, those oil-rich countries, which you know, Saudi Arabia can support like three million people, but they've got 37 million.
• 16:16
  They're working in that industry.
• 16:18
  The desert can only support 3 million in terms of water, so they have desalinization plants to make the water that can support that many people, and they have to bring in food because they don't have the arable land to feed those people.
• 16:30
  They have to feed them from food sources outside.
• 16:33
  Same thing with the UAE and uh Bahrain and Qatar, all these countries have the same, you know, they're desert.
• 16:42
  They're just really flat out desert.
• 16:44
  They can't support that many people.
• 16:46
  But the oil has made it so they're supported.
• 16:48
  Now the Strait of Hormuz is not only for carrying oil out, but for carrying supplies and food in to those now overpopulated countries, those those Gulf states, those oil countries.
• 17:03
  And they perform the work of the Western world supporting the Western world with 20% of the world's oil supply, but really it's more than that percentage of the oil that that Japan and uh Europe and uh and Korea use.
• 17:19
  And these are our military allies against Russia and China that depend on this.
• 17:25
  And what happened, you know, Trump claims that he thought everything through, everything was thought through when he went into this attack, and they said it was going to be three, four weeks, maybe five weeks later on, it was going to take for this war, and they they were gonna change the regime initially, but now they don't talk about that anymore because the regime, if it was going to fall, it would have fallen when they decapitated it at the beginning.
• 17:52
  That was when it was at its weakest, white right when the confusion of the first strikes, but it didn't happen.
• 17:58
  It didn't decapitate.
• 17:59
  And you've got this powerful, you know, 150,000 uh revolutionary guard corps plus another 40,000 of these uh militia police, you know, fanatics, and then you've got the regular army of 300,000, and the the hope would be the regular army would turn and join the people, but that hasn't happened.
• 18:19
  Why hasn't it happened?
• 18:20
  Because they adopted the same organizational strategies that were taught to them by the Russians and the Chinese, and that is Leninist institutions.
• 18:29
  You put your secret police in the army, in every unit of the army has the agents of the Iranian secret police, and in the officer corps you have indoctrination, and you're watching these officers very carefully.
• 18:42
  They're gonna be the most watched, distrusted people in the country because they're the people with the most guns.
• 18:49
  They have more guns than the than the IRCG, but the IRCG has better weapons, better training, and the IRCG is not mold out by the gut.
• 18:58
  Well, it is it is really the regime, right?
• 19:00
  And not only that, the IRCG controls major elements of the economy and the black market economy, they thrive off of that because it's really a socialist system.
• 19:10
  And of course, so everybody gets paid off, and they so they have big uh bonuses and big uh cash payouts for those for their loyalty.
• 19:19
  So not only do they believe, but they they get good benefits for believing in the cause.
• 19:25
  So this is how the regime's organized, and it's like all of these regimes, it's highly bureaucratically organized, and they are able to replace their leadership, just like we have leaders standing by in bunkers.
• 19:38
  They're not gonna suffer decapitation.
• 19:41
  None of these, you know, all these communist regimes, ever since 2020.
• 19:45
  The word went out from Russia and China that war was coming with the United States.
• 19:49
  And I got this from an intelligence source in 2020.
• 19:52
  Well, uh message went out we're gonna there's going to be an escalating series of crises and wars leading to thunderous war against America.
• 20:00
  So you have to keep a portion of your leadership in nuclear underground bunkers at all times.
• 20:05
  Because the Americans could lash out and wipe out your leaders.
• 20:09
  So you must do this.
• 20:10
  This is what people were told in Hanoi and Pyongyang, in in Havana, right?
• 20:16
  This is what they were told.
• 20:20
  And uh it's because they're really gearing up for taking us on.
• 20:26
  As crazy as that sounds.
• 20:28
  But it's not really so crazy when you look at how they've prepared, and it's not just preparations in Iran to cut off the oil.
• 20:36
  Let's talk about the meaning of that oil being cut off.
• 20:40
  You see the the price of oil if it one of the calculations is over $200 a barrel if this thing stays shut.
• 20:47
  And and Neil Ferguson, the uh the the British uh economic historian who wrote the history of money and a lot of other great books on economics and economic history, wrote the history of the Rothschilds, for example.
• 21:01
  Um he said in a podcast, and he's he's of course with the uh um with the Hoover Institute as well.
• 21:12
  He's a fellow there.
• 21:13
  He said that if this goes on through April, you're gonna have major economic dislocations.
• 21:19
  And already uh the Treasury has said we're gonna have inflation.
• 21:25
  Because the price of oil going up and they hit on the petrodollar.
• 21:30
  Here's what the remain what the Iranians are doing.
• 21:34
  They're allowing Chinese ships and ships that trade in Chinese currency to come in and load up and and buy and sell in the Gulf.
• 21:42
  They're not allowing ships that buy and sell and trade in dollars.
• 21:48
  That is, so it's like they're laying siege to the Gulf states in Saudi Arabia and saying, Well, if you want to sell your oil and you want to pay your people and you want to keep you 37 million fed in Saudi Arabia, you have to start trading in Chinese currency.
• 22:04
  Well, what does that do?
• 22:05
  When you're holding hundreds of millions or trillions, hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars, petrodollars, and you can't spend them.
• 22:13
  I I I mean, you can spend them, but you can't earn more.
• 22:17
  You have to you have to trade them in for Chinese money.
• 22:21
  Because that's what the Iranians are saying.
• 22:24
  You can only do, you know, the Chinese currency.
• 22:28
  That will that's an attack on the dollar.
• 22:31
  Yeah, yeah, it is.
• 22:33
  Yeah.
• 22:33
  So it's not only that they've cut the oil off from our allies and are seriously affecting our allies' economies.
• 22:39
  And by the way, Trump did not consult Japan.
• 22:42
  He didn't consult our allies in Europe before he went off and did this.
• 22:47
  And and he he didn't properly consult the the the Gulf states.
• 22:51
  They wanted to be neutral.
• 22:53
  They were initially saying, you can't use our airspace, we want to be neutral, but the Iranians struck them anyway.
• 22:57
  And everybody said, Oh, it's such a terrible mistake.
• 23:00
  They're they're striking these innocent countries.
• 23:03
  No, no, it was well calculated.
• 23:05
  Because by striking those countries, they're those countries are the oil supply of the West.
• 23:11
  It was in a Iran's response was to attack the West.
• 23:15
  Why?
• 23:16
  Well, they're aligned with Russia and China.
• 23:17
  It's part of this larger game.
• 23:19
  And of course, who benefits?
• 23:20
  First, the Chinese benefit because then they can export their inflation and they replace the petrodollar and the Russians then the oil price goes up and the embargoes lifted from the Russians because people are so desperate for oil.
• 23:32
  So the Russians end up making $10 billion a week.
• 23:36
  Extra.
• 23:38
  It bails the Russian financial economy.
• 23:40
  And then it that who takes the hit?
• 23:43
  Our allies and we do.
• 23:47
  Right when the Allies uh when the Western Lions is pretty fractionated anyway.
• 23:52
  Yeah.
• 23:52
  You know, over the Ukraine war over Israel, all sorts of things like that over NATO.
• 23:57
  So did okay, so the scenario we've been presented as Trump was told that the Iranians are about to produce weapons that are a little while away, and that we're going to use them.
• 24:11
  And they're basically told the US to take a hike.
• 24:13
  And so the scenario is, you know, we told Trump really had no choice.
• 24:17
  He had to move.
• 24:18
  Do you think this was a bite?
• 24:20
  Do you think this was a trap?
• 24:22
  I do.
• 24:23
  I do.
• 24:23
  I think um they used the the WMD thing was the thing that that partly causes to go into Iraq.
• 24:31
  Saddam had used poison gas.
• 24:33
  He was always trying to develop a bomb.
• 24:35
  Um so there was concern because he was kind of a crazy man, but these crazy men are useful because they can get uh get our backup and get us to come in and uh get involved in a war.
• 24:48
  And what do the Russians and Chinese want?
• 24:50
  If they want to have more power in their region relative, they'd like to see the U.S.
• 24:55
  military pinned down in the Middle East.
• 24:59
  And pinned down in a way that we're really not our weapons and our tools aren't sufficient to open the Strait of Hormuz.
• 25:08
  If you you see, the even if we destroyed every drone factory in uh Iran, and it's difficult to imagine with all the underground sites that there aren't underground factories, but even then you have the Russians shipping large numbers of drones to Iran over the Caspian Sea.
• 25:26
  And in fact, the Israelis have even struck these sh the other day.
• 25:29
  They sank five of these ships carrying drones into Iran, but there's trucks moving drones from Tajikistan.
• 25:38
  The uh Iranians have drone factories there in Central Asia, and the Chinese have drone factories, and you can see in Central Asia lines of 18 wheelers coming across Central Asia into Iran.
• 25:51
  They're never gonna run out of drones, and they're going to be able to continue to send drones against the the ships that they don't like going into this Persian Gulf.
• 26:06
  Yeah, we need to call it a break here, GIF.
• 26:08
  And we'll come back straight after this, and I want to develop that point further, and then talk about how the heck what what do we do now?
• 26:17
  What what should Trump do?
• 26:19
  Okay.
• 26:20
  So we'll quote, we'll be back straight after this, Jeff.
• 26:25
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• 30:09
  Welcome back to America Out Loud, Trevelaud Reports.
• 30:12
  Okay, so Jeff, you're playing painting a bit of a dire scenario here.
• 30:17
  So Trump's walked into this.
• 30:20
  And you know, I was very rah-rah.
• 30:22
  I want to see Iran taken down.
• 30:23
  I want to see regime change.
• 30:25
  So there's very little talk of that now.
• 30:27
  Just like there's not really much talk of regime change in Venezuela, and you wonder why they actually do these things unless they actually go to change the regime.
• 30:38
  So America has gone into this war.
• 30:44
  Nobody else is helping.
• 30:46
  But Russia and nobody's helping America but Israel.
• 30:53
  But Russia and China are definitely helping, and and other countries are helping Iran with supplies of weapons.
• 31:01
  So what is the way forward?
• 31:03
  So we're so we're in the we're in the in the trap, so to speak.
• 31:09
  Is there a way forward?
• 31:11
  What would happen if America withdrew?
• 31:14
  Should America just keep going, put boots on the ground, whatever is necessary to finish off the Iranian regime and call a bluff, basically.
• 31:28
  Um that's why it was so well thought out.
• 31:32
  And everything we see was well thought out.
• 31:35
  I mean, the United States has many options.
• 31:37
  We need to support uh Ukraine massively because the Russians are involved in this.
• 31:43
  The Russians have been supporting this plan.
• 31:46
  Uh there's no doubt of it.
• 31:48
  And um we have to be careful now.
• 31:52
  Uh I you know, there may be somebody clever can develop a new technology that can they can make the strait free of drones, but you uh uh Lloyds of London and these these ship insurers, they won't insure a tanker to go into the Gulf because the the day the danger of being hit by drones and catching fire and and and you know being a burnt-out Hulk there floating on the ocean is is very serious.
• 32:20
  Oil is ignites.
• 32:23
  And um, and these ships uh there's no real way to stop a drone yet.
• 32:28
  I mean, you see, the Russian oil uh storage areas around Promorsk and St.
• 32:34
  Petersburg have been hit for the last three nights or so.
• 32:37
  I think they're being hit right now as we're speaking again a fourth night, um, and they're just burning.
• 32:42
  They've been burning for days.
• 32:44
  Uh oil is very vulnerable.
• 32:47
  And um and I think that uh the problem here is that uh we don't have a solution yet.
• 32:55
  We went into the war without it.
• 32:57
  So then the thing is, how do we get the Iranian people to rise up?
• 33:01
  Well, they don't have weapons, they will be massacred by the IRCG and their their radical militias.
• 33:09
  Uh so that is not going to work.
• 33:12
  And decapitation didn't work.
• 33:14
  And now we're we're we're bombing all sorts of things.
• 33:17
  We've bombed, you know, I think 7,000 targets.
• 33:20
  Look, we dropped 7.5 million tons of bombs on uh north North Vietnam, Cambodia Laos during the Vietnam War, and we lost the war because they had the Ho Chi Minh Trail and they were able to flank us continuously, and uh they were able to uh demoralize the American public uh with the frustrating thing that if we didn't go into the North, if we didn't go into Cambodia, they they they really went after Nixon for going into Cambodia and Laos.
• 33:51
  They uh they it just wasn't possible to win.
• 33:55
  We had to actually take the war to the communists to win, and uh public opinion in the U.S.
• 34:00
  wouldn't do it, wouldn't go for it.
• 34:02
  And you know, President Johnson and maybe President Nixon were afraid of World War III if we did that.
• 34:07
  Now in in Iran, we have a similar problem.
• 34:10
  Our army is much smaller than it was during Vietnam.
• 34:14
  And Iran is a lot bigger country in terms of population than Vietnam in in size and population and sophistication.
• 34:23
  Um and the weapons are different.
• 34:26
  Um it it seems if the reports from Lebanon are true about the Hezbollah using drones to knock out tanks, it's gonna be very difficult for us to advance on the ground in Iran.
• 34:38
  And uh even taking Karg Island could be very costly if the Iranians are prepared.
• 34:45
  Um this may be a solution to the problem because 90% of uh Iran's oil comes through there, but it doesn't solve the problem of keeping the straits open.
• 34:55
  Uh Trump may call the uh the the sailors in the oil tankers cowards for not braving the drones, but it's not up to them, it's up to the insurance companies and the owners.
• 35:05
  And and nobody's gonna risk something that expensive uh to these drones.
• 35:11
  So um, and then there's the other problem is that Trump initiated the war with only about one-third support among the American people.
• 35:20
  I think about two-thirds are not liking this war, weren't really for it.
• 35:25
  He's got a vice president who doesn't seem to be for it, is uh director of national intelligence doesn't seem Tulsi Gabbard doesn't seem to be for it.
• 35:34
  Well, though they're both for both for anything that Russia will uh likes, both of them.
• 35:40
  Right.
• 35:41
  So even Trump's and Trump's MAGA supporters are not a hundred percent behind this.
• 35:46
  Uh I think a lot of Republicans, mainstream Republicans are thinking, well, we have to deal with this someday.
• 35:53
  Uh, but everyone's kind of dismayed at how poorly thought out this has been, or or soon they will recognize this.
• 36:00
  Um but the the thing that has to happen is the American people have to understand that everything is on the line here.
• 36:06
  This is the most important waterway in the world to us.
• 36:10
  All this propaganda about, oh, uh Washington's run by the Jews, and it was the Jews that got us into this, and it's you know, all this anti-Semitism uh that has nothing to do with it.
• 36:21
  The Jews aren't the significant thing about the Middle East, it's this oil that's significant.
• 36:26
  And it has to be, if we can't protect the strait, uh then the dollar is you know, our credibility as a defender of the West is gone.
• 36:37
  And and we would like Britain pull out of the the Middle East, uh uh abandon our bases, and that would leave the region to the control of China in Iran and Russia.
• 36:49
  Which would which would then destroy the dollar?
• 36:52
  Yes, the dollar would be absolutely worthless at that point, because there's we've been in exporting our inflation for decades, ever since Bretton Woods, ever since Nixon took us off the partial gold standard.
• 37:05
  And and what is been backing the U.S.
• 37:08
  currency is U.S.
• 37:09
  aircraft carriers protecting the world trade, especially this oil trade.
• 37:14
  And so if you if the America no longer performs that function, no one has any reason to take dollars.
• 37:21
  And if they don't, they can export our inflation, which means the inflation, all those dollars being used to trade overseas come home.
• 37:28
  And what does that do?
• 37:29
  It's invested in the stock market or real estate, which causes a huge bubble in the stock market or real estate, or in gold, and then that bubble bursts, and then what happens?
• 37:41
  Well, so this has always been my argument.
• 37:43
  People say, look, you know, America's been carrying the load for everybody around the world, but it's been a bit of a quid pro quo because yes, you know, um NATO countries haven't really been paying their fair share of the bills, but they've been taking American dollars and having their savings depleted every single year.
• 38:04
  We've been taxing them.
• 38:06
  And so, you know, America has been, and they were willing to put up with that as long as America protects them and keeps the trade routes open.
• 38:15
  So why would they do that if America can't do that?
• 38:19
  Yeah, it would be it would be tough.
• 38:21
  You know, and there's the fact that we basically possess this the really advanced systems that integrate with the local defenses of the various countries, our allies, Australia, Europe, Japan, uh, and so on.
• 38:36
  They need us, and uh they don't want to have to pay for the technological developments and have to keep up as little countries.
• 38:45
  They would find it difficult.
• 38:47
  It's better for us to specialize.
• 38:49
  This is why Americans, and I it's hard to explain this to Americans.
• 38:53
  You live well because of our aircraft carriers and our big military.
• 38:57
  That's why you live well.
• 38:58
  You take that away, and your standard of living is not going to be that good.
• 39:02
  That's exactly right.
• 39:04
  And this is what gets me about all these America first as peace nicks, anti-NATO types, isolationists.
• 39:12
  They think by the they think that the US military is a drain on their lifestyle.
• 39:19
  They think by cutting back the military, there's more going to be more gun money to spend on butter.
• 39:24
  Well, no, there isn't.
• 39:26
  Yeah, because yeah, the US military is the great provider in this.
• 39:32
  Um, and and of course, it's hard to estimate exporting our inflation.
• 39:37
  We produce uh people say we have a trade imbalance.
• 39:42
  No, they produce all these other things that we consume, and we produce dollars that they use to trade with, and we protect the trade.
• 39:50
  That's really how it worked.
• 39:53
  And uh, you know, I had a uh a friend who was close to one of the uh the the last conserve conservative prime minister.
• 40:00
  Minister of Australia, he was close to one of his economic advisors, and I asked him, I said, What does he say about this uh arrangement and and how Australians view it at the top of the Australian political system?
• 40:12
  And he came back and he said, even the left in Australia recognize that they need the American military, or they get gobbled by China.
• 40:22
  Now, I'm sure the Chinese agents on the left don't really care that much.
• 40:26
  But um sensible people, sensible Australians realize that without America, they can't they're not going to survive in a war with China.
• 40:38
  No, they're not.
• 40:39
  And just like I I know, look, if America wasn't there, China wouldn't have to invade New Zealand.
• 40:44
  That just phone phone up the prime minister and say, look, uh, we want to settle uh half a million people a year in your country, we want three military bases in your country, uh, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and full access, the Antarctica, and our prime minister would say would say yes, sir.
• 41:02
  That's right.
• 41:03
  Yeah, I think you've got the scenario correctly.
• 41:06
  And uh so I think uh realistically, people understand this.
• 41:12
  I I think uh Canada's a special case because they targeted Canada for um infiltration, the Sidewinder report.
• 41:20
  So there's a lot of Chinese, uh, you know, more than half the immigration into Canada over the last uh almost 30 years has been from China, and they do it through via Hong Kong, a lot of it.
• 41:32
  And and of course, there's a commonwealth, Hong Kong's a commonwealth was a commonwealth territory for a long time.
• 41:39
  And of course, so is Canada, so is Australia and New Zealand for that matter.
• 41:44
  So uh this was their way in, and they saw Canada as the back door to the US.
• 41:50
  They Chinese are all over Mexico developing the ports, building extra railroad tracks, developing the ports, by the way, above what would be needed for Mexican trade.
• 42:01
  It's very interesting.
• 42:02
  In fact, they've made up this story that they're developing the ports as an alternative to the Panama Canal, you know, build the rail lines, build the port so if the Panama Canal can't carry the traffic, well, Mexico can carry it.
• 42:13
  But there's another reason for building up Mexico, and it's that if the Chinese land an army in North America, that's their supply base.
• 42:22
  Yeah, yeah, exactly.
• 42:24
  And they intend fully intend to do that.
• 42:26
  Just one point I'd like to raise too is that on the Islamic front.
• 42:31
  You know, like if America doesn't finish this war, every Muslim Shia Muslim, every jihadi, every terrorist around the world is going to look and think God truly is on our side.
• 42:46
  The Americans threw everything they could at the mulas and we're still standing.
• 42:52
  Truly Allah is with us.
• 42:55
  And that's going to encourage every jihadi on the planet.
• 42:58
  Whereas if America takes down the mulas and has a new regime, that's going to be a huge discouragement to the jihadi movement, I would have thought.
• 43:08
  Absolutely.
• 43:09
  And it's also if that happens, it would it would be a huge hit on Russia and China if they lost Iran.
• 43:16
  Uh so this is this is this is what I want to get at, Jeff.
• 43:19
  And you you were talking about this the other day.
• 43:22
  Now that America is in the war, it has to win, both from the Islamic side of things, uh, from every reason, because you know, the American the dollar, the um the the damage it would do to Russia and China, the damage it would do to the jihadi movement, the encouragement it would give to the free nations of the world to finally see the Islamic Republic um replaced by a uh Western friendly regime.
• 43:50
  Do you see the stakes in that starker terms that we we really have to win this now?
• 43:55
  Absolutely.
• 43:56
  Uh I'm afraid that uh if we retreat from this, and that may happen, it will be a strategic defeat that will lead to more defeats, and that will open the door to this kind of world war scenario that Russia and China have been fishing for, that that could carry it on, where they look and say, all right, now it's practical to move ahead with our mobilizations, to move on Taiwan, to move on uh Alaska to move on uh Latin America in a much bigger way, and to put direct military pressure on the United States, um, where suddenly the war is starting to erupt in the Caribbean on the border with Mexico.
• 44:34
  Imagine there, imagine if there are 10,000 drones in Cuba and that they can reach all the way to Cleveland and Washington, DC.
• 44:43
  Then it's not just a drone war between uh Ukraine and Russia, where infrastructure is being hit on both sides every day.
• 44:51
  It's now happening to the United States.
• 44:56
  It's truly horrifying, isn't it?
• 44:58
  But it's it's very credible, you know.
• 45:00
  It's very possible, yes.
• 45:02
  It is we think of ourselves as invulnerable, but we're not.
• 45:07
  This is look, people look at the map.
• 45:09
  Mexico is really with China and Russia.
• 45:12
  Cuba is a satellite of China and Russia.
• 45:15
  Venezuela is a huge communist country down in South America, probably with ballistic missiles in that mountain next to the base where we we took um President Maduro kidnapped him from.
• 45:28
  The U.S.
• 45:29
  has tremendous capabilities, but stopping drones and fighting ground war with drones is not something we've learned yet.
• 45:37
  No, it isn't.
• 45:38
  And you can imagine, you know, imagine what it would do to Florida to to, you know, this the several major military installations in Florida, that would be an easy reach.
• 45:50
  Yeah, easy.
• 45:51
  Easy.
• 45:52
  So okay, so America's got to win.
• 45:55
  The big problem here is America probably has the has the has the ability to win, but the political considerations are a major factor.
• 46:05
  Yes.
• 46:06
  How can President Trump convince the people to win?
• 46:09
  And first of all, how can President Trump convince himself to win?
• 46:13
  And how can America if the political will was there, we have to win, how would it be done?
• 46:19
  How would you do it?
• 46:20
  If you were if you were the commander of chief, how would you finish this war on our terms?
• 46:26
  Well, I would immediately go in with the Ukrainians big time.
• 46:30
  And I would promise to give them all kinds of help if they would teach the U.S.
• 46:35
  military their techniques in drone warfare, and if we could get this innovation going ourselves, and learn how this kind of warfare is fought and develop anti-drone systems and technologies.
• 46:47
  There has been some efforts in this direction, but they're not nearly serious enough or urgent enough.
• 46:52
  Um and of course, there's there's talk about laser technologies and whatnot, but uh we need to step this up.
• 46:59
  And of course, you have to talk honestly to the American people.
• 47:03
  You can't uh say, oh, everything's fine, the war's gonna be over in 10 days or two weeks or whatever, and say, well, we might leave if we don't, you know, we've done our job, we might leave.
• 47:14
  Uh we've really done everything.
• 47:15
  Um, you can't talk like that.
• 47:17
  You have to talk like Winston Churchill, and you have to lay it on the line, and you have to say, look, um, people, this is the most important strategic position on the map for us and our allies.
• 47:28
  Uh our allies are dependent on this, and if our enemies control it, our enemies would control the the life blood of Europe and Japan.
• 47:37
  They wouldn't be able to remain our allies.
• 47:40
  They would be able to turn them, and if we can't open the straits, the Arab countries will wither.
• 47:45
  Those Arab oil countries will wither.
• 47:47
  They will they they will not be able to survive either.
• 47:51
  So we've got these important allies that have made our beautiful life in the West possible, our advanced technology, our prosperity.
• 48:00
  If we want to defend our prosperity, we have to be willing to fight and die for it.
• 48:05
  And it and by the way, it's not really, we shouldn't be fighting for prosperity because prosperity is really a byproduct of fighting for freedom.
• 48:14
  Yes.
• 48:15
  And the Iranian people are our natural allies.
• 48:19
  We should want to free them.
• 48:21
  We should want to see Ukraine uh safe and and free.
• 48:27
  We we would want to see new governments in China and Russia, and of course, pressing on that.
• 48:32
  Uh, you know, they have nuclear weapons, so we can't really push for their them falling.
• 48:38
  We have to realize we have a nuclear standoff, and we need to have an increased nuclear deterrent.
• 48:44
  And we and this might take a while.
• 48:47
  And you see, if the problem Trump has that I wouldn't have had is I don't believe in starting wars.
• 48:54
  I believe very much in what Otto von Bismarck said.
• 48:57
  He said, starting a preemptive war is like uh committing suicide for fear of death.
• 49:04
  You're afraid that a war is gonna erupt there, so you're gonna start it yourself.
• 49:09
  They might have nukes, they could nuke you once you start the war, but now you're the one who started it.
• 49:14
  This is Bismarck's kind of argument.
• 49:16
  Um, and it's it's extremely correct.
• 49:19
  And somehow we've been tricked into being the aggressor here, the one that attacked, the one that I hate to say this, it hurts me.
• 49:28
  A perfidious attack.
• 49:30
  We Trump said there was a deadline, what was it, March 1st?
• 49:33
  We attack on the 28th when they think they have two more days of grace, and and we give the coordinates to the Israelis who drop 30 bomb on Khamenei's compound and kill him in 40 other leaders.
• 49:46
  I'm sorry, in any book that I've ever read, that's perfidy.
• 49:50
  That's treachery.
• 49:52
  And so this is not I I mean, we have to deal honorably, even with our enemies.
• 49:59
  Um we have to.
• 50:00
  To keep our word, and the president can't lie.
• 50:03
  This is the number one thing.
• 50:05
  This is what just only makes it worse because the truth will come out.
• 50:10
  And it will be known by everybody.
• 50:12
  And this is the thing.
• 50:14
  The Democrats are already saying they're going to impeach Trump and Vance and Bondy, right?
• 50:20
  The attorney general.
• 50:21
  I think they definitely will impeach Trump.
• 50:23
  And I think there's a good chance that the Republicans in the Senate will convict him after the catastrophe that we're going to pass through.
• 50:31
  If we're not in a Pink Panther movie, okay, if we're in a Pink Panther movie, Trump is close and he always falls up, right?
• 50:40
  Whatever screw up, it always comes out nice for him.
• 50:44
  Now, it would be wonderful if reality worked that way, and for Trump sometimes it has, strangely.
• 50:51
  But I don't I want somebody to try to explain it to me realistically how this happens.
• 50:57
  Now, John Mosier, a military analyst I really respect.
• 51:01
  His books are fantastic.
• 51:11
  And he, in his latest column on Iran, he says Iran is finished, because he thinks the precision weapons will allow a level of destruction against Iran that they will be forced to give up.
• 51:25
  Now I don't he hasn't changed his mind on this, and I'm interested.
• 51:29
  He he made arguments that weren't persuasive to me.
• 51:33
  Because look, it's never happened in history.
• 51:36
  Even when Qaddafi fell by bombing, there were rebels in his country.
• 51:40
  There were ground forces opposed to him to exploit those air strikes.
• 51:44
  So unless those ground forces change sides, like they did in Libya, I don't see it happening.
• 51:52
  And I need somebody to explain to me what's the difference between 7.5 million tons of bombs dropped on the communists in Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 70s, and and a much smaller amount of precision ordinance dropped on Iran.
• 52:09
  I think the the degree of destruction is similar.
• 52:12
  The method is different, and but the outcome I think is the same.
• 52:19
  So you're really saying the uh the the bottom line is America has to win this, and to win it, there will have to be boots on the ground to some degree at least.
• 52:28
  We we have to, but we I think if if the the Iranians have the drones, and it looks like they do have the drones integrated with some of their certainly with Hezbollah and Lebanon.
• 52:38
  We need to send, we need to let the American people know that boys are gonna die.
• 52:42
  But if they don't, the dollar is wiped out, and they're they're gonna be America's gonna be a third world country, and there's gonna be nothing here.
• 52:49
  We we're we won't even have the means to reindustrialize.
• 52:52
  We won't even be able to maintain our Navy.
• 52:55
  They gotta understand that that the United States is it this is an existential threat, although it doesn't directly appear, it's an indirect effect if we pull back and we don't win.
• 53:07
  And the Iranians know it.
• 53:08
  Uh, I mean, uh Alexander Dugan's been crowing, America's now on the verge of collapse.
• 53:14
  He's giddy over it, right?
• 53:17
  Because he knows we took the bait.
• 53:19
  You have to in this situation, you have to thank God the Arab states are willing to fight, the oil states, the Saudis.
• 53:27
  If we can reorganize them, it will take months.
• 53:31
  And if we can organize and keep that air supremacy up, we could eventually capture the key ground to reopen the straits, I believe, and and and collapse the regime.
• 53:43
  But it's going to take time.
• 53:49
  Well, it's not going to be a quick fix.
• 53:51
  And the key here is the political will and uh in an election year.
• 53:57
  So Trump, you know, to me, he has no choice but to go forward.
• 54:02
  And he's got a tough self.
• 54:06
  He's sort of like President Johnson in his doing this.
• 54:10
  Johnson went into Vietnam thinking, oh, send this big bunch of things and we'll just wipe them out and then we'll be able to leave.
• 54:16
  But no, he couldn't leave.
• 54:18
  He couldn't get out, he couldn't figure out how to get out.
• 54:21
  Nixon figured out Vietnamization, but it didn't work because the the Vietnamization worked, but then uh we we stopped supplying the Army of the Republic of Vietnam.
• 54:31
  But here, in the case of um of Iran, if the president can can get together with the Senate, especially and other members of the government and and say, look, it this is what we're confronted with.
• 54:45
  Uh we have no choice, we have to fight this war.
• 54:48
  Uh, and then the media gets behind it and understands what's at stake.
• 54:52
  If the whole country could get on the same page, but this is a very tall order because Trump is kind of like Johnson.
• 55:00
  He's escalating, he's sending ground troops, but he's not really enunciating the solution or saying, look, we have to fall the regime now.
• 55:09
  Yeah, yeah.
• 55:10
  You know.
• 55:12
  Yeah, so so it's the bottom line, isn't it?
• 55:15
  It's uh it's a very perilous situation.
• 55:18
  America has to win, but the country is divided, and our enemies know that, and that'll exploit the heck out of that, including uh military uh including uh media and democratic party, but other than that, everything's planned sailing.
• 55:34
  Yeah, yeah, and it's everything depends on, and of course, we've got the vice president.
• 55:38
  We haven't mentioned him because the president is rather old and he seems to be rather stressed, and he doesn't look well.
• 55:45
  Uh I he doesn't look uh like he's that healthy.
• 55:50
  If something should happen to the president, we've got JD Vance in there.
• 55:54
  And I think J.D.
• 55:55
  Vance would be the person to pull out.
• 55:59
  Oh, look, no question.
• 56:01
  No question at all.
• 56:03
  So I do not want JD Vance to be on the ticket in 2028 at all.
• 56:07
  Yeah, it's that Trump would stay, but not J.D.
• 56:11
  Vance, yeah.
• 56:12
  Yeah.
• 56:13
  Well, thanks so much, Jeff.
• 56:14
  We have to call it quits here, unfortunately.
• 56:17
  But uh, thank you so much.
• 56:19
  And uh look, we'll uh we'll keep on an eye on the situation.
• 56:24
  It ain't going away.
• 56:25
  It's a critical situation, as you've explained, and uh we'll get you back for some updates, and let's just hope we can stay the course and and enough people listening, listen to this kind of thing to uh to realize how serious the situation is.
• 56:39
  Yeah, well, thank you for having me.
• 56:42
  You're most welcome, Jeff.
• 56:43
  Thank you.