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Trump Wins New Hampshire, Rages at Haley · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Jon Lovett.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 4: Tommy Vitor.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Gang's all here.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Here we are.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Big night.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Huge night.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire primary, though his
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: margin over Nikki Haley looks like it'll end up being
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: smaller than the polls suggested, somewhere between 8 and 12 points.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: We're recording this Tuesday night, so we're still counting some vote.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: But it was apparently enough for Haley to decide that
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: she's staying in the race. Here's what she said shortly
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: after they called it for Trump.
• 0:47
  Speaker 5: Now you've all heard the chatter among the political class.
• 0:52
  Speaker 5: They're falling all over themselves, saying this race is over. Well,
• 1:04
  Speaker 5: I have news for all of them. New Hampshire is
• 1:09
  Speaker 5: first in the nation.
• 1:10
  Speaker 6: It is not the last in the nation. This race
• 1:20
  Speaker 6: is far from over.
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: There are dozens of states.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Left to go.
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: I love the yelling guy.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: I love that guy.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Go Nikki. I mean, are we political class? Because this
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: member of the political class does not think It's over.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I want her to go stay all the way in.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Go to the convention, Nikki.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: 12 points? That's fucking, that's this, that. Some people might
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: say that in any other election on earth that that's
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: a landslide. Not me. This razor thin margin.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: 11 points. All the way to Milwaukee. Come on, Nikki.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: I wonder what the last primary is. I'll Google it.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you Google that. Why do you guys think she
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: decided to stay in?
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Dan?
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I don't think she did.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: What are you talking about?
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Wait, hold on a second there.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: We watched this whole thing. She got dressed up. She
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: went down there. She said, here we go.
• 2:15
  Speaker 7: Okay, I'm going to flash you back to eight days ago.
• 2:18
  Speaker 7: We sat in your office eight days ago. We watched
• 2:20
  Speaker 7: Ron DeSantis give a speech.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: That was not a stay in the race speech.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: That was absolutely a stay in the race. It was
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: four minutes, no message.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: That was pathetic.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: Look, maybe she will stay in the race. Maybe she will.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: But I don't think that matters one iota.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I find myself rooting so hard for her to stay
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: in the race. I don't think it matters. Nikki Haley's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: not going to win the Republican nomination.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Not with that fucking attitude.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: What are we doing here? Unless we get the hamburger
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: from heaven. But I think the longer she's in this
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: race attacking Donald Trump, pissing him off, absolutely.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: I'll take it.
• 2:54
  Speaker 7: I mean, maybe she will stay in. The month between
• 2:58
  Speaker 7: New Hampshire and South Carolina is traditionally a death march
• 3:00
  Speaker 7: for Republican politics.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: George W.
• 3:02
  Speaker 7: Bush, in some of the dirtiest politics of that time,
• 3:05
  Speaker 7: seems like, frankly, nothing now. Quaint.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Quaint.
• 3:08
  Speaker 7: Destroyed John McCain in that period to then essentially lock
• 3:11
  Speaker 7: up that nomination in South Carolina. Nikki Haley is going
• 3:13
  Speaker 7: to be under a brutal assault for a month to
• 3:17
  Speaker 7: go to her home state where she's polling in the
• 3:20
  Speaker 7: single digits and losing to Trump by about 30 points
• 3:23
  Speaker 7: in an electorate that is so, and we can talk
• 3:24
  Speaker 7: about how it's so unfabled her, maybe she will want
• 3:26
  Speaker 7: to go through that humiliating process.
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: I would be surprised.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: What has she got to lose?
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: Well, I think the big question is how much money
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: she can raise in the next 24, 48 hours. If
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: she can't raise money, she's got to get out.
• 3:39
  Speaker 7: Her campaign is billionaire dependent. She has no grassroots fundraising base.
• 3:42
  Speaker 7: And there's this fund. These billionaires are holding this fundraiser
• 3:44
  Speaker 7: for in a week. And we'll see if they're still
• 3:46
  Speaker 7: holding it a few days from now.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: Apparently she's going to campaign in the Virgin Islands tomorrow.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow, yeah.
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: For their February 8th caucus, and there's Nevada.
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: I figured it out.
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: The last primary is the June 4th, Montana, New Jersey,
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: New Mexico, and South Dakota primary. So that's how long
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: this could last.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: June 4th.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Oh, please.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: Tommy, when is the... Can you find the Virginia primary?
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: That's... Sure can, yeah.
• 4:06
  Speaker 7: That is the one primary she has a legitimate chance
• 4:08
  Speaker 7: to win.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Well, so they... She... Their argument, the Haley team, they
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: put out a memo this morning sort of signaling that
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: they were not going... She was not going to drop out.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: If it was the 20 or 30 point blowout that
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: the poll suggested, maybe that wouldn't have been an operative memo.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: But their argument is basically, so we've got South Carolina,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: our home state, is on February 24th. And Democrats can
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: also vote. Anyone can vote in that primary. Unless you're
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: a Democrat that votes in the February 3rd primary, the
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Democratic primary, for Joe Biden, then obviously you can't vote again.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: But if you don't vote in that, you can vote.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So that's an open primary in South Carolina. And then
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: they go to Michigan. Michigan is open. And then D.C.,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: good district for her. Then the caucuses in Idaho and
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: North Dakota. And then Super Tuesday on March 5th. And
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: 11 of the 16 states on Super Tuesday have open
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: or semi-open primaries.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: That is true, but it's far less important than the
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: fact that the Trump team has completely rigged the rules
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: so that now if he gets 51% of the vote
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: in some of these states, he will take all the delegates,
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: including states like California.
• 5:15
  Speaker 7: It is true that some of these states have open primaries,
• 5:18
  Speaker 7: but none of them have open primaries with the tradition
• 5:20
  Speaker 7: of independent participation like New Hampshire.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Half of the.
• 5:23
  Speaker 7: Voters in this election were either independents or Democrats who
• 5:27
  Speaker 7: re-registered as independents to participate in this process.
• 5:30
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: It almost sounds like independents and Democrats infiltrated to take
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: a clean victory away from Donald Trump.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: Who managed to stop this deal.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it does seem as though like if your campaign
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: memo is about how don't worry about the Republican primary
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: has lots of opportunities for people who aren't Republicans to vote,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: you do have a deeper problem that can't be overcome
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: by a calendar.
• 5:53
  Speaker 7: That would be the memo written by the campaign that
• 5:56
  Speaker 7: lost Republicans by 50 points in this election tonight.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So you would say- She didn't do so well with
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Republican voters. Which is tough when you're running for the Republican.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: At some point, right, presumably she has to, at some
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: point she has to win Republicans. to win the Republican primary.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: That would be sort of, I don't know.
• 6:13
  Speaker 9: I'm not listening.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This is what you guys pay the big bucks for.
• 6:15
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: Like I'm a speech writer. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not,
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: I'm not a data guy.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I'm not a dad.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: I was more, more poetry than pose, but I have
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: to say, just, I also was a math person. And
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: I do think at some point she has to win Republicans.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to get inside there. The campaigns, her head,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the campaigns. I think what they might be thinking is, um,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: As Tommy said, Trump has rigged the rules. So a
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: lot of these are like either winner take all or
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: you hit a 50 percent threshold in the primary and
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: then you take all the delegates. But maybe she's thinking,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: if I can just keep picking up a few delegates
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: here and there and then March 5th comes along or
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: whenever Trump is tried in D.C., then Trump is convicted.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Suddenly the polls start shifting again. We go to the convention.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: She's the only other one with delegates, except I guess
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Ronnie D has a couple from Iowa. Like six or something.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: He's got six from Iowa. No one else is going
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: to get delegates except Trump and maybe her now. So
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: maybe she thinks then, you know, who knows what might happen.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: It's all crazy, but I'm thinking that's what must be
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: going through their heads.
• 7:16
  Speaker 7: I think what's going through their heads is everyone gets
• 7:18
  Speaker 7: up in a campaign and they care passionately about it
• 7:21
  Speaker 7: and they can't make the decision to drop out between
• 7:25
  Speaker 7: when the votes are counted and when she speaks.
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 7:27
  Speaker 7: So they do this. And then this is exactly what
• 7:29
  Speaker 7: happened with DeSantis. Then over the course of time, the
• 7:33
  Speaker 7: checks stopped coming in. Sorry, I'm going to lay staff off.
• 7:36
  Speaker 7: People start, your endorsers start calling and saying, you know what?
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: How many does she have?
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: Like Sununu.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: It's just like stuck to her.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Sununu and Ralph Norman.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, not even, I guess that's right.
• 7:48
  Speaker 7: They start calling and saying, you know, I'm kind of thinking,
• 7:51
  Speaker 7: or the billionaires who are funding this thing say, it's
• 7:54
  Speaker 7: time to get on board with Trump.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: And then you drop out. Like this is the process
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: they all go through.
• 7:58
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: I think that that would help explain why she spoke
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: so early. It's like, you know what, let's just go
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: out there and get it over with, give the speech
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: we need to give for tonight, get to tomorrow, do
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: some thinking, spend time with your family, and then really decide.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I also think they must've seen the numbers and said,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: your lead is never, Trump's lead is never going to
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: get smaller than it is right now. Get out there
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: before there's a one in front of that number.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: Trump noticed that too.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: He's furious.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: We'll get to it.
• 8:22
  Speaker 7: The speech hit different when she was down seven, I suppose,
• 8:24
  Speaker 7: now when she's down 14 or whatever it is at
• 8:26
  Speaker 7: this moment.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I think she's going to stay in all the way
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: to South Carolina. I'm pulling for her.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: It's my wish cast.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: It's total wish cast.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: What we want and what we think will happen are
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: unfortunately different.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: We all light a candle to Saint Isidore of content,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: but I want her to stay in too. I think, Dan, look,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: obviously you're making... the right, like that's the most sensible,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: obvious path. But hey, we got to put something before
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: the Helix mattress ads.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: And I feel like people on campaigns and people when
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: you're in it, you don't make sensible decisions. Like I don't,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I just don't.
• 8:57
  Speaker 7: Well, every campaign manager has to go tell their boss
• 9:00
  Speaker 7: to drop out is saying, lay me off, right? That's
• 9:04
  Speaker 7: not a message people deliver that easily. And all these
• 9:06
  Speaker 7: other people who've been in the trench with us for
• 9:08
  Speaker 7: a year now, we're all gonna become unemployed. And possibly
• 9:11
  Speaker 7: unemployable in Trump's Republican Party.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: If you are someone who is spending a ton of money,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: if you would put money behind Nikki Haley, you are
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: a person who has deluded yourself into believing that at
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: some point the Republican Party is gonna come to its senses.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: That is like the core, that is core to your being,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: that you believe that something is gonna shift, the fever
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: is gonna break. A year ago, it wasn't true. What's
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: to say these people won't keep believing that for another
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: three or four months? You know, the trials are coming.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: She's also, she's just, she's bored. She likes running for president. She's,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: you know, she's getting some attention.
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: She likes it now in New Hampshire where 48% of
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: the voters are independent Democrats.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know what she's going to do.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: People say she can't fill an event in South Carolina.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, just one proof point.
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, one of her big donors was the CEO
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: of Home Depot. Ken Langone, I think is his name.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: He said that his financial support for Haley would be
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: contingent on New Hampshire results. So you're going to have
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: guys like that deciding whether they're going to light 10
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: million more on fire and give it to a super
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: PAC or not. And I think that's going to make
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: the decision for her.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe he said at some point you stop
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: throwing money down a rat hole. which begs the question
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: why you ever start throwing money down a rat hole. Right, yeah.
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: And what's a rat hole?
• 10:23
  Speaker 7: And these guys also know that the longer they wait,
• 10:27
  Speaker 7: the longer they support Nikki Haley, the more expensive it's
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: going to be to get back in Trump's good graces.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I will say, it's her home state. She can run
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a pretty lean campaign in South Carolina. She doesn't have
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to go anywhere.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: You know, she makes a point in that.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: She's down 50%.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: In her victory speech, she's given two victory speeches and
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: she hasn't won a thing.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: This is what I'm saying.
• 10:46
  Speaker 9: I love it.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: We're acting like this is on the level and she's
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: going to be like, Oh, look at my, look at
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: the data.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: John, I'm on your side of this fucking table. But, but,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: but she, in her speech, she makes this point like you,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: you know, I'm from, she speaks, she's really, we were
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: talking about this before the, the pod that like, she
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: really is just like, she's, she is just a quintessential politician.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: She's very, she's good at it, but she's such a
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: quintessential politician, but she gets up and she says, Now,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: they can't come down to South Carolina and lie about
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: me or whatever they can say about me. Sure they can.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: But also, they know me in South Carolina. South Carolina
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: is my home state. Where you're polling at 6%, the
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: argument goes both ways. If they know you, they've already
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: decided on you. What story can you tell a South
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Carolina voter to convince them to go from Donald Trump
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: to Nikki Haley when you were the governor for eight years.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: She's going to wake up tomorrow and figure out.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: And you know what? And she can do it. And Nikki,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: I believe you can do it.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So Trump was none too happy about Haley's decision to
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: stay in the race. Gone was the low energy, somewhat
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: gracious Trump we saw during his Iowa victory speech. Thank God. Instead,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: we got our guy back.
• 11:57
  Speaker 8: I can go up and I can say to everybody, oh,
• 11:59
  Speaker 8: thank you for the victory. It's wonderful. Or I can
• 12:02
  Speaker 8: go up and say, who the hell was the imposter
• 12:05
  Speaker 8: that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed
• 12:09
  Speaker 8: a victory? She did very poorly, actually. We won in 2016.
• 12:13
  Speaker 8: And if you really remember it, if you want to
• 12:15
  Speaker 8: play it straight, we also won in 2020.
• 12:20
  Speaker 10: By more.
• 12:22
  Speaker 8: Ron beat her also. You know, Ron came in second
• 12:25
  Speaker 8: and he left. She came in third, and she's still
• 12:28
  Speaker 8: hanging around. And just a little note to Nikki. She's
• 12:32
  Speaker 8: not going to win.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: She's not going to win.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: But if she did, she.
• 12:37
  Speaker 10: Would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes.
• 12:41
  Speaker 8: And I could tell you five reasons why already.
• 12:43
  Speaker 10: Not big reasons. A little stuff that she doesn't want
• 12:47
  Speaker 10: to talk about. But she will be under investigation within minutes.
• 12:52
  Speaker 10: And so would Ron have been. But he decided to
• 12:55
  Speaker 10: get out. He decided to get out. Now, Vivek, I
• 12:58
  Speaker 10: don't think, would be at all because he's perfect, right?
• 13:02
  Speaker 10: I find in life, you can't let people get.
• 13:05
  Speaker 8: Away with bullshit.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Okay?
• 13:07
  Speaker 8: You can't. You just can't do that. And when I
• 13:11
  Speaker 8: watched her in the fancy dress that probably wasn't so
• 13:14
  Speaker 8: fancy come up, I said, what's she doing? We won.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Just classic. Classic Trump.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Can we just talk about one, before we get to
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: all of it, can we just talk about one piece
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: of it, which is Did he forget that Ron DeSantis
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: endorsed him one second? He just got mad and kept going?
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Or what's going on there? He was supposed to be
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: nice to Ron. Ron's emotionally on that stage with him now.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: Did he forget?
• 13:34
  Speaker 7: There are some legislators in Florida who are trying to
• 13:37
  Speaker 7: pass a bill to give Donald Trump $ 5 million in
• 13:40
  Speaker 7: taxpayer money to pay for his legal bills. And Ron
• 13:43
  Speaker 7: DeSantis declared on Twitter that he would veto that bill.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: And that was that. He also gave his, in his
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: first interview, I think with Steve Deese, he said that
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Trump's got a real problem with, swing voters and he's
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: going to have to fix it. Like he kind of
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: went after Trump today in his interview.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: They don't like each other.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I think it's, I don't know if he forgot. I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: think he fucking hates Ron DeSantis. He was in no
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: respect for DeSantis. He was in flow.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: He was in his flow.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: He was trying to play that like, oh, I'm going
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: to be gracious and okay for Ron DeSantis. He fucking
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: hates him.
• 14:12
  Speaker 7: Ron DeSantis offers him nothing. Like Tim Scott could be
• 14:15
  Speaker 7: a valuable asset in his campaign, right? Nikki Haley would actually,
• 14:19
  Speaker 7: I don't think he's going to take advantage of this,
• 14:20
  Speaker 7: but would be a potential asset in his campaign. Ron
• 14:22
  Speaker 7: DeSantis brings nothing to the table. He needs him for nothing.
• 14:26
  Speaker 7: Especially now that $ 5 million in taxpayer money is off
• 14:28
  Speaker 7: the table.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: What did you guys think of the speech? What did
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: you guys think of Trump's big victory speech?
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: He was pissed.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: I mean, that came through loud and clear. Yeah, he
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: suggested Haley would be investigated. He also suggested that Governor
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: Sununu is on drugs.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he did.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: You guys catch that part?
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: He's got to be on something.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: Said this guy has got to be on something. There
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: was the mocking of the dress, which was just petty
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: dickish stuff. Then he said to Tim Scott, you must
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: really hate her about Nikki Haley because Tim Scott endorsed him.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it was old school raging Trump.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: He also, yeah, he let all of his new supplicants
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: give a quick little speech. Vivek did a tight two minutes.
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: 60 seconds.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Vivek did a tight 60 and then Tim Scott
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: was clearly not prepared that he was going to be
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: asked to say something, and he got up there and
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: sort of mumbled through. And then when Trump said, you
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: must really hate her, he came up and he goes, no,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: I just really love you.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: I just.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: That's your guy. That's Lovett Scott. And you know what?
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Here's what I think.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Here's what I think.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Do you want to live in a world where you
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: don't open up your heart to somebody, even if you
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: know there's a chance you might get fucking disappointed? Yes.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Am I disappointed that Tim Scott is not just a
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: fucking failed presidential candidate, but a sniveling little fucking worm
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: that Trump is now going to take out of the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: gimp box to march down to South Carolina?
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: What box?
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: The gimp box. It's from a film called Pulp Fiction.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Learn film. Go to cinema. Tim Scott is out of
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: the gimp box. That's what we're talking about. Yeah, I'm
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: pissed about it. Yeah, it's frustrating to me to have
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Tim Scott there. But just like, obviously the Tim Scott
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: thing was humiliating, embarrassing. But even the Vivek thing, he's like,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I told Vivek he could speak, but no more than
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: a minute. No more than a minute. He's got these
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: guys on a leash.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: But you know what? I was like, and I know
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: MSNBC and CNN, after we complained about this, they did
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: take Trump's speech tonight. Although then they cut away and
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: they were like, see, this is the problem with taking
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Trump's speech because he lies so often. It's like, yeah,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: there's definitely a lot of lies, crazy lies. They had
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to fact check it. But I'm happy for all the
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: voters in America to see the Trump that we saw tonight.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: More of it. This is why I want Nikki Haley
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: to stay in so badly because Donald Trump talked about this. Dan,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: you've written a message box about this. Like, he is
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a strong man. He wants to appear strong. he made
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: himself appear weak tonight because he was so pissed. Even
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: though he fucking won, he was so pissed at Nikki
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Haley that he seemed like he was just angry, he
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: was agitated. It was great.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: I was thinking about this too because, you know, look,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: we've gone through so many fucking endless conversations about platforming and,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: you know, you can't show Trump because it spreads misinformation,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: but if you don't show Trump, people forget how threatening
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: he is. And I do think, like, what I was
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: taking away from because I heard you guys talking about
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: it and I agree, we talked about this before, but
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: that it's like, yes, Trump is a vehicle for spreading
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: misinformation and that can be dangerous, but also the lies
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: that Trump spews, especially the ones that are just like
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: not plausible that most people don't believe, they are a
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: vehicle for exposing Trump, right? Like we do, you do
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: need to like, and I don't know what's like, you know,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the best thing is. I don't
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: think there's an easy decision there, but man, is it
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: better to have people seeing Trump being at his most
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: unhinged and angry and all the rest.
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: I think we might be in a different place politically
• 17:55
  Speaker 7: if Trump had not been essentially exiled from public view
• 17:58
  Speaker 7: on January 7th, 2021.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: Because if he had been rage tweeting about being improperly
• 18:07
  Speaker 7: persecuted for this and how the election was in that moment,
• 18:09
  Speaker 7: as opposed to just disappearing for a few months and
• 18:11
  Speaker 7: then being slowly welcomed back in, it'd be a very
• 18:14
  Speaker 7: different world. And for a whole host of reasons that
• 18:16
  Speaker 7: you've talked about offline, The information environment has changed so
• 18:20
  Speaker 7: much since that time that now people just never see Trump.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:23
  Speaker 7: And now the one nights and the few nights when
• 18:25
  Speaker 7: they might see him, we're like, don't show him. I
• 18:27
  Speaker 7: think that I just think.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: That he has been rage truthing and also doing these
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: rallies the whole time. But the rallies aren't being covered
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: and that no one sees the truth, really.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: So and as viewership of cable declines, we're an increasing
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: share of the audience. So we want to see it.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: So just give it give the people what they want.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Two quick housekeeping notes. There's a lot to keep track
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of in a high-stakes election year. Voting deadlines, emergency therapy,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and maybe also your job or whatever. That's why Cricket
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: and Vote Save America created a comprehensive 2024 planner. It's
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: filled with important dates and some fun extras to keep
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: you focused, sane, and organized. For the record, we tried
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: to include a few Xanax, but the lawyers said we couldn't. Losers.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Head to cricket.com slash store to get your planner now. Also,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: pre-order our book, Democracy or Else, How to Save America
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: in 10 Easy Steps. It's a fun, useful guide to
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: getting involved while keeping whatever's left of your sanity intact. Plus,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Cricket will donate its profits from the book to support
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Vote Save America and other organizations mobilizing for the 2024
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: election so you're helping make a difference before you even
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: crack it open. Democracy or Else is available on June 25th,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: but you can pre-order your copy now at cricket.com slash
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: books or wherever books are sold. Let's talk about the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: results in the primary. You guys see anything notable in
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the results of the exits or anything that might tell
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: us something about the general election? We talked about in
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Iowa how Trump's win there might have showed some weakness
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: since it wasn't a commanding win. Obviously, this was even
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: less of a big win in New Hampshire. What do
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: you guys think, Tommy?
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: I thought it was interesting that Trump did best among
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: the 18 to 29 year old cohort. He got 61%
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: versus 52% or 53% of the older voters. That was
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: interesting and I think does say something about his super
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: fans and the people who like him.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: And also it says something about the self-selecting sample of
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: young Republican voters too.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: That they're the more radical, sort of the TPUSA types.
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: Also, the most important issues were the economy, 36%, immigration, 31%.
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: Trump mopped up with immigration voters. 77% of that cohort
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: went for him. No surprise there, but it does tell
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: you what issues are really driving this primary and then
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: the general election for Republicans.
• 20:47
  Speaker 7: I think you can sum up how Trump won by
• 20:50
  Speaker 7: these numbers. Is Haley won moderates by 50 points and
• 20:55
  Speaker 7: Trump won conservatives by 42 points, but conservatives made up
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: two thirds of the electorate and moderates one third.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Do you think that portends anything for the general election?
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I thought if you're going to look for
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: numbers that might say that Trump is a weaker candidate.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: They again asked in the exits, is Trump fit to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: be president if he's convicted? 52% said yes. 44% said no.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Your feelings if Trump wins the nomination? Again, this is
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: just the Republican primary. 59% said satisfied. 40% said dissatisfied.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: So for someone who's running as basically an incumbent, you know,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: probably not the numbers you want.
• 21:32
  Speaker 7: There are many, many flaws in our presidential nomination process.
• 21:35
  Speaker 7: One may be the fact that Trump is going to
• 21:37
  Speaker 7: receive about 200,000 votes and basically be the nominee by tomorrow.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: We're a country with 80 million Republicans.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: That's something more about the Republican Party.
• 21:44
  Speaker 7: But one thing where the New Hampshire primary is useful
• 21:47
  Speaker 7: for at least projecting forward for the general election is
• 21:51
  Speaker 7: you do get a pretty significant sample of prototypical swing
• 21:56
  Speaker 7: voters participating in this, right? It is suburban, college-educated, moderate.
• 22:02
  Speaker 7: The largest group of voters in the state by far
• 22:04
  Speaker 7: are undeclared voters. And those are the exact voters that
• 22:08
  Speaker 7: Trump lost ground with from 2016 to 2020. Those voters
• 22:13
  Speaker 7: are overrepresented in some of the states he lost, like Pennsylvania, Georgia,
• 22:17
  Speaker 7: and Arizona. And if he is going to win, and
• 22:20
  Speaker 7: we talk all the time about all the things Biden
• 22:21
  Speaker 7: has to do, Trump has to do better with college-educated
• 22:25
  Speaker 7: suburban voters. And nothing that happened tonight suggests that he
• 22:29
  Speaker 7: is doing not even better, anywhere near as well as
• 22:32
  Speaker 7: he did in 2020. That is a big flashing light
• 22:35
  Speaker 7: with a segment of voters that he has to improve with,
• 22:37
  Speaker 7: and there is no evidence he has done so.
• 22:39
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: And we don't know if any of these Haley voters,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: we don't know how many of them are going to,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: if Trump's the nominee, vote for Trump or vote for
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Biden or not vote for either of them. But certainly
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: it doesn't show a lot of strength.
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I feel like there's two things that I took from this.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: One is actually just how strong and dangerous a general
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: election candidate Nikki Haley would be.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: That's one.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: But two, Trump in his, you know, rambling, infuriated speech, he, he,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: he didn't want to say it exactly like, don't worry. Yeah, sure.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Nikki Haley is doing better against Biden than I am,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: but anybody can beat Joe Biden. But he basically got there. And,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: you know, Nikki Haley is making like, it's like a
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: vaguely sophisticated point about how Trump costs people the House
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and costs people the Senate. Like it's a coattails thing,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: but Republicans want to win. And he made a point
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: of saying, hey, don't worry, we got this thing. You
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: nominate me, we're going to win. And he's clearly like,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: there is an argument that Nikki Haley is making that
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: he's not totally unconcerned by, right? Like he is responding
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: to it and making a point that's like, oh, Joe
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Biden is so frail and weak. Don't you worry about that.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: I'm going to beat Joe Biden. Nikki Haley, any of
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: us could beat Joe Biden. That's not important. That's not important.
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: It's also notable that they asked in the exits, would
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: you favor or oppose a federal law banning most or
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: all abortions nationwide? And only 27% of voters favor banning
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: most or all abortions nationwide.
• 23:55
  Speaker 7: One concerning point in that number is that Trump Only
• 23:59
  Speaker 7: lost the people who opposed a nationwide ban by 10%.
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: 55-44. Yep.
• 24:05
  Speaker 7: But here's one other thing on the electability number. Yes,
• 24:06
  Speaker 7: I do think it gets under Trump's skin because down
• 24:09
  Speaker 7: deep in his very dark soul, he knows he lost
• 24:11
  Speaker 7: the 2020 election and that haunts him. But only 15%
• 24:15
  Speaker 7: of voters in the exit poll listed defeating Joe Biden
• 24:19
  Speaker 7: as their top quality, the quality they cared most about
• 24:22
  Speaker 7: in a candidate.
• 24:23
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 24:23
  Speaker 7: And Trump won those voters overwhelmingly. So there is, this
• 24:26
  Speaker 7: is Nikki Haley's argument. There is zero audience for that
• 24:29
  Speaker 7: argument in New Hampshire. And nationally, we talked about this
• 24:32
  Speaker 7: the other day, is that they asked Republicans in this
• 24:33
  Speaker 7: YouGov poll, regardless of who you support, who do you
• 24:37
  Speaker 7: think is going to win? 84% of Republicans think that
• 24:39
  Speaker 7: Donald Trump's going to win the election.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Tells you everything about why he's walking away with it.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but there is this sort of like, you know,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: voters aren't good at telling you how they're going to
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: feel about something in the future. I think, and that
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: could be a double-edged sword. But we are in this
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: strange scenario where a bunch of Republicans voted for Donald
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Trump today and also told a pollster that if he's
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: convicted of a crime, he's unfit and they won't vote
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: for him again. And he is on track, you know,
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: to our minds to be convicted, hopefully before the election,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: but we don't know. And so it's like.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: We know they think you wouldn't be fit, but we
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: don't know if they wouldn't vote for him. Because they
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: didn't ask, would you vote for him? Which they did
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: ask in CNN's poll. No, they asked it in the
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Des Moines Register poll.
• 25:18
  Speaker 7: But even, I didn't look at it in the New
• 25:20
  Speaker 7: Hampshire poll. And I just got a text from Reid
• 25:23
  Speaker 7: that said, who we work with, who said, organic polar
• 25:26
  Speaker 7: coaster pitch, which I think means right now I'm supposed
• 25:29
  Speaker 7: to mention that we're going to dig deeper into these
• 25:30
  Speaker 7: exit poll numbers in the episode of Polar Coaster that's
• 25:32
  Speaker 7: coming out in two days.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Wow, amazing. That's how the magic happens.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: I just felt like it was right there, part of
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: the conversation.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, let's talk about the Democratic primary in
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire. There was one. And Joe Biden won it
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: despite not appearing on the ballot. Again, he did not
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: appear on the ballot since Biden and the DNC decided
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: that South Carolina will be the Democrats' first primary. New
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Hampshire went ahead with their primary anyway, so they are
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: not going to have any delegates at stake. So Joe
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Biden didn't go on the ballot. Dean Phillips and Marianne
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Williamson did. The Biden allies in New Hampshire, Biden supporters
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, did not want Joe Biden to be embarrassed.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: So they organized a write-in campaign and boy, did it work.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: So he won over, so far right now, he's got
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: over 70% of the votes, the write-in votes. We'll find
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: out the final number when everything's counted and they read
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: all the write-in votes. Dean Phillips only won around 20%
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: and Marianne Williamson took 4%. What do you guys think?
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: But Mercury's in retrograde.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: I kind of think that Biden... Look, they were hoping
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: to avoid embarrassment, but I think they also demonstrated some enthusiasm.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's easy to organize a write-in campaign. And, like,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: if you're a Democratic primary voter and you know there's
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: not much of a primary, to get up, walk out
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: of your house, go to the polls, write in Joe
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Biden's name, that tells you something.
• 26:52
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it definitely demonstrates some enthusiasm, but I
• 26:55
  Speaker 7: think demonstrates even more is organization. And for all of
• 26:59
  Speaker 7: the Democratic... complaining and worrying and everything about the state
• 27:03
  Speaker 7: of the Biden campaign, whether Biden can win. One thing
• 27:05
  Speaker 7: that the Biden campaign has been very, very good at
• 27:07
  Speaker 7: from the very beginning, right? Going back to the primary
• 27:09
  Speaker 7: when they overperformed in the Nevada caucuses is organization. And
• 27:14
  Speaker 7: so this is something that I think that they would
• 27:17
  Speaker 7: be very good at helping engineer is something like this.
• 27:20
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Dean Phillips and Dean Phillips affiliated Super PAC spent $ 5
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: million in New Hampshire for his 20%. Here's what he
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: said tonight. about his loss. What I'm saying is this.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know what my name recognition is. It was
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: zero just 10 weeks ago. I would imagine in this
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: country right now, it's probably five to 10% tops. I
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: was a brand builder before this in the private sector.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: It takes recognition of a name or a brand in
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: order to actually test it. I need some months to
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: do that. And so basically he said he's going to
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: take a few more months. And once polls start testing
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Dean Phillips against Donald Trump, he's going to look at
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: those numbers and then he's going to make a decision.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: This is just a whole race. It's a whole campaign
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: based on polls.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: What a waste of time.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: He got in because of polls. He's going to get
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: out because of polls. He's going to stay in because
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: of polls. Whatever the polls say, that's what Dean Phillips
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: is doing with his life.
• 28:04
  Speaker 7: I'm going to suggest that perhaps Dean Phillips' strategy to
• 28:07
  Speaker 7: campaign in a state, relentlessly, to move to a state
• 28:12
  Speaker 7: where the president.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Was not on the- Where he did go to summer camp.
• 28:15
  Speaker 7: He did go to summer camp. That's where he discovered
• 28:18
  Speaker 7: his passion for America and public service, at summer camp,
• 28:20
  Speaker 7: as one does.
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 28:22
  Speaker 7: To base the entirety of his campaign and this $ 10 million, whatever,
• 28:26
  Speaker 7: spending in a state with no delegates was not the
• 28:29
  Speaker 7: right choice.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I will also say, too, we have worried a
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: lot about Joe Biden as the nominee. What if another
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Democrat challenges him? Another Democrat challenges him in New Hampshire,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: and Joe Biden's not even on the ballot. And the
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic voters in New Hampshire went out and said, no,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: I don't want Dean Phillips. I want Joe Biden. They
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: had the alternative. They saw his ads. spent $ 5 million
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: in the state and they just, you know, that's, that's
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: part of the reason this primary has turned out the
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: way it is because democratic voters, when they get the chance,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: they wanted to vote for Joe Biden.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: It's like, I do think like, oh, you know, you know,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: we look back on this moment. If a year from
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: now and Donald Trump has won, we look back in
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: this moment, I want to make sure that like, you know,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: were we too cavalier about this specific challenger? And I
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: actually think the answer is no. There are legitimate and
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: very real concerns about Joe Biden's ability to get reelected.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: And the issues that made Dean Phillips so anxious about
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: the polls to get in are not.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: Invalid.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: They are very real concerns that I think we all share.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: It's just, this wasn't the candidate. And there was no
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: amount of, I think... He also did a terrible job.
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: Like if you, if you really had these concerns, you
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: had to get in a year earlier, you had to
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: actually run hard. You had to know when deadlines, like
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: getting on the ballots in various States occur. And instead
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: he waited too long. He fucked it up. He hired
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: all the wrong people. And now he's just left with
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: this sort of embittered message where he's complaining about the
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: DNC and the process. trying to whine his way to
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: the White House. And it's just, it's not going to work.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: Not easy running for president. It's not helping.
• 30:06
  Speaker 7: And perhaps you should not decide to run for president
• 30:08
  Speaker 7: because you get a DM on Twitter from Steve Schmidt,
• 30:10
  Speaker 7: which is how this happened.
• 30:11
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Good advice, Dan. So speaking of Biden, he kicked off
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the general with a campaign event in Virginia on Tuesday
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: focused on abortion rights just a day after the 51st
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: anniversary of Roe v.
• 30:33
  Speaker 11: Wade.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: He was joined on stage by Vice President Kamala Harris,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: First Lady Jill Biden, and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. Here's
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: a clip of Biden in Virginia.
• 30:42
  Speaker 11: In the United States Congress, extremists are trying to pass
• 30:46
  Speaker 11: a national abortion ban to outlaw abortion in every single state.
• 30:53
  Speaker 11: But what they need to know... is that if Congress
• 30:56
  Speaker 11: passes a national abortion ban, President Joe Biden will veto it.
• 31:02
  Speaker 9: Donald Trump is betting you won't vote on this issue.
• 31:07
  Speaker 9: But guess what? He's betting we won't hold him responsible
• 31:12
  Speaker 9: either for taking away the rights. He's betting you're going
• 31:15
  Speaker 9: to stop caring. By the way, that you'll get distracted
• 31:22
  Speaker 9: and discouraged and stay home.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Well, guess what?
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: I'm betting he's wrong. Campaign also released a new ad
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: that features Dr. Austin Dennard, a Texas mother and OBGYN
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: who was forced to travel out of state for an
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: abortion after learning her pregnancy was non-viable and life-threatening. White
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: House also announced a series of executive actions aimed at
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: protecting reproductive rights. What did you guys think about the event,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the ad, the policies? Dan, we were talking about this,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: I think, on the last pod. Obviously, this was them
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: trying to get some attention. especially counter-programming a New Hampshire primary?
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Do you think they got the attention they were hoping for?
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: I think they certainly got.
• 32:03
  Speaker 7: You never get the attention you're hoping for. They certainly
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: got more attention than any other- Just love it.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: You're right.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: It's a daily grind. It's a campaign of inches.
• 32:13
  Speaker 7: I mean, it got more attention than your typical White
• 32:21
  Speaker 7: House event, right? We don't know what the audience was
• 32:24
  Speaker 7: for television coverage tonight, but it's certainly more than- On
• 32:27
  Speaker 7: a typical political night, right? And even on some of
• 32:29
  Speaker 7: the network stuff where you're going to see those clips,
• 32:31
  Speaker 7: you're going to see that message, you're going to see
• 32:32
  Speaker 7: the Restore Roe banner that was behind them. And so, yeah,
• 32:35
  Speaker 7: I think it achieves that goal for sure.
• 32:38
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: So this is it. This is going to be the
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: longest general election in history.
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: What a remarkable stat.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: There is an ongoing competitive Republican primary. I don't know
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: what we're doing. Three pods a week.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I know it was timed because of the anniversary of
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade, but I do think it was telling that...
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: As we kick off the general election, they started with them.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, he did the January 6th speech on the
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: anniversary of that. And then he just did a series
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: of events and ads around abortion. You know, I think
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: that seems to be what they're going to, that's going
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: to be the message, the main message for the campaign.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: And I'm guessing there'll be an economic component as well soon.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think jobs, freedom and democracy. I mean, it
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: seems like the three things.
• 33:19
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Jobs, freedom, and democracy.
• 33:21
  Speaker 7: That's the ultimate question here, right? They've called it jobs
• 33:24
  Speaker 7: and democracy as their strategy. And the question is, how
• 33:28
  Speaker 7: much do they have to narrow the gap on the
• 33:30
  Speaker 7: economy to have that strategy work? And we don't know
• 33:33
  Speaker 7: the answer to that. And I think it is the
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: source of probably the biggest debate within the Democratic Party
• 33:38
  Speaker 7: right now. The question is whether the larger general election
• 33:41
  Speaker 7: electorate is going to place a higher premium on economic
• 33:45
  Speaker 7: performance and economic approval than the midterm electorate who clearly
• 33:48
  Speaker 7: voted on abortion, freedom.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Democracy, and those issues. And that we don't know.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: And how persuadable.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Those voters.
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Even though there is technically still a Republican primary going on, technically,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: the Biden campaign did put out a statement tonight, basically
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: saying that like, you know, the general is here. We
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: know Donald Trump's good. Do we think that Biden's going
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: to be out there now all the time? Like, is
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: he going to go campaigning? Is he going to be
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: freer to campaign? Should he? In the next month or
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: so while Nikki Haley is still doing whatever Nikki Haley
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: is going to do?
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: I think they're constantly striking a balance. They're doing official
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: events in swing states. I imagine they'll continue to do
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: a lot of those because it saves you money.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Dan, are you thinking of doing a big-ass rally in
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: Michigan soon or something to really kick this thing off?
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: Or do you wait until the post-State of the Union?
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know what they're going to do.
• 34:36
  Speaker 7: I imagine it's going to be a relatively slow but
• 34:40
  Speaker 7: steady ramp-up. And there's so much other stuff going on
• 34:45
  Speaker 7: in the world that he has to attend to. Um, I,
• 34:49
  Speaker 7: but there is, there is a real, um, asymmetry in
• 34:54
  Speaker 7: terms of the kind of information people.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: Are getting right now.
• 34:55
  Speaker 7: And that, whether it's through more Biden campaign events, more
• 35:01
  Speaker 7: louder Biden message events from the white house or aggressive
• 35:06
  Speaker 7: paid advertising, that asymmetry has to narrow right now. Cause
• 35:10
  Speaker 7: there's this very interesting poll that our friend Peter Hamby
• 35:13
  Speaker 7: wrote about in puck, which shows that people are getting
• 35:15
  Speaker 7: a ton of information about Donald Trump. and not very
• 35:17
  Speaker 7: much information about Joe Biden. And that is alarming in
• 35:20
  Speaker 7: two fronts. One, it's allowing Trump to define the four
• 35:23
  Speaker 7: corners of the political conversation, but also part of the
• 35:25
  Speaker 7: Democratic argument is that people aren't paying attention to Trump.
• 35:28
  Speaker 7: Once they realize Trump's still around and still terrible, they
• 35:31
  Speaker 7: will change, the election will change, the fundamental dynamics will change.
• 35:35
  Speaker 7: This is a piece of data that suggests we have
• 35:37
  Speaker 7: more work to do than just waiting for people to
• 35:39
  Speaker 7: wake up from their political new slumber.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: And again, I don't think the Biden campaign has to
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: choose between, do we go out there and have a
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: positive message from Joe Biden and accomplishments and what he's
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: going to do? Or do we just go out there and,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: you know, hit Donald Trump every day? I think they
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: can do a contrast message. Right. And so every time
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: they go out there, here's something Joe Biden did. Here's
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: what he wants to do if he's going to get
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: a second term. And by the way, here's what Donald
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Trump would do and the Republicans. And you just constantly
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: drive the contrast message. And over the next couple of months.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'd get out there soon to try to.
• 36:12
  Speaker 7: I think it probably begins after the State of the Union.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because ideally that's going to be his biggest audience, that,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: the convention, and then the debates. And hopefully, I think
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: in the State of the Union, they'll lay out an
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: economic agenda for the second term that they'll be able
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: to then use in the campaign trail. So that'll be
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: hopefully like the third leg of the democracy Dobbs stool,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: if you will.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Well, that's it. Anything else? Any closing thoughts? Just go, Nicky.
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: Go get him, Nicky.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Go get him, Nicky.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Tim, you broke my heart.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: You got this, Nicky.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: All right. And I don't know that I can love again.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: That may be it. I'm out.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Congrats on the engagement. I don't know where that came from.
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: God, Trump can't say that without laughing.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: He just can't help himself.
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: He just laughs.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: You know, it's, it's, we just talked about the fucking
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Tim Scott engagement. Just like the idea that like, like,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: you know, nothing says to me, nothing says love to
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: me more. than proposing to your girlfriend on Friday and
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: then endorsing Donald Trump and going to a rally over
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: the weekend.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: And then telling him you love him.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: And then telling him you love him. He's still duped.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: His heart is big enough for two. And the other thing, too,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: is it's like, I don't know Tim Scott's life. None
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: of us does, right?
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: Fine.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: But man, the idea that this sort of like slapdash
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: engagement in a photo is going to like mitigate Trump's
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: concerns about Tim Scott being weird. Like we were talking
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: about this before we record, like Bertie got duped. by
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: a kind of an evangelical right-winger who made him a
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: little uncomfortable with all the Jesus talk, but he swallowed
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: it to secure the right-wing vote. He's not going to
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: do that again.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: He tried to kill the last one. He told me
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: a favorite thing about that picture of Tim Scott getting engaged.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: The photo caption says, this is Tim Scott getting engaged
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: with a photo courtesy of Tim Scott.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: Courtesy of Tim Scott. He was like, I really hate
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: that this news broke, but here you go.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Here's a pic.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: He also like did this interview. He's like, I'm such
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: an introvert. It's like, are you, are you such an
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: introvert publicizing your engagement?
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: You just ran for president.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Just ran for president. What kind of, you're not really,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: you're fucking up being an introvert, Tim Scott.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: We're out.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Pod over.
• 38:12
  Speaker 10: Bye everyone.
• 38:14
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• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Our show is produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo.
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• 38:49
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• 39:02
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